Markov Model (

1)

SIS (Safety Instrumented System)

,

(Control and
Instrumentation)

BMS (Burner
Management System)

, SIS (Safety Instrumented System)

IEC 61508/61511, SP
84.01 NFPA

Markov Model ( 1)

SIS (Safety Instrumented

System)

(Control and Instrumentation)

BMS
(Burner Management System)

SIS (Safety Instrumented System)

 IEC 61508/61511, SP 84.01
NFPA

PFD (Probability of Failure on Demand)








2

- (Repairable Device)
- (Non-
repairable Device)

PFD

PFD

(Third Party)



 SIS

3
1) Sensor
2) Logic Solver
3) Final Element

SIS
SRS (Safety
Requirement Specification) PFD
SIS
(Redundant)

(Boiler)

BMS

(Mean Time before Failure)

 PFD (Failure
Rate)

(Level Transmitters)
1,000 50

1 20
MTBF (Mean
Time Between Failure) 20
20 MTBF

1 20

(Mean Time to Repair)

(Availability)

PFD
(Probability of Failure on Demand)

20

4
4/(20 x 8760)
2.28E-5

 PFD

3
PFD
PFD 1

Fault Tree Diagram

2
 2 Fault Tree Diagram

1 2 PFD

PFD

PFD PFD

Markov Model

PFD

2
1oo2 (One out of two voting) 2oo2
(Two out of two voting)

1oo2D (One out
of two voting with diagnostic) 2oo2D (Two out of Two voting
with Diagnostic)
2oo3
(Two out of Three voting)

PFD

PFD
Markov Model




PFD

Andrei Andreyevich Markov (1856-1922)

(Probability)

San Petersburg 1800 Markov (Markov
Process)

(Diagram) (Reliability)
Block Diagram

Markov




(State)

Markov Model
t + 1
t

2
-
-

Markov Model
 State Diagrams
3

3 Markov Model

Markov Model




Markov Model PFD

(Non-repairable Device)
Markov
Model
4
 4 Markov Model

0
(Formula)

4
- 2 , P0 P1

- P0 P1

P0 P1
= 0.1

P0 (ok) P0 = 1, P1=0
P0

1
 1
10

(Infinity)
P0 0
1

0
 P1 1
0

1
5

(Repairable Device)

Markov Model

Markov Model
Markov Model
6

6 Markov Model



2 2 6

2 P0 P1
P1 P0

0.05 4-8
P1 = / MTTR/MTBF MTTR

MTBF

P0 (ok) P0 = 1, P1 = 0

P0 P1

P1 P0

8
10
= 0.1 , =0.3
 2

(Infinity)
P0 0.75
P1 0.25
7
 7

(Redundant System)

Markov Model

2




Markov
Model
8
 8 Markov Model

4
-
A B

-

A

A

-

A B

[1] ISA TR84.00.02-2002 Part 4: Determining the SIL of a SIF via

Markov Analysis
[2] IEC 61511, Functional safety-safety instrumented system for
the process industry sector
[3] William M. Goble and Harry Cheddie, Safety Instrumented
System Verification Practical Probabilistic Calculations, ISA-The
Instrumentation, Systems and Automation Society
[4] , , ISBN
974-212-172-9,
(), 2548.

..
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