Tablet Computer Sales

Week Units Sold

1 88
2 44
3 60
4 56
5 70
6 91
7 54
8 60
9 48
10 35
11 49
12 44
13 61
14 68
15 82
16 71
17 50
 XLMiner : Time Series - Moving Average Smoothing

Output Navigator
Inputs Train. Error MeasuresFitted Model Forecast

Inputs Training Error Measures

Data I
Workbook Tablet Computer Sales_ Moving Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Worksheet Data Mean Square Error (MSE)
Range $A$3:$B$20 Tracking Signal Error (TSE)
Selected Variable Units Sold Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE)
# Records in Input Data 17 Mean Forecast Error (MFE)

Parameters/Options
Interval 3
Forecast Yes
#Forecasts 5

Fitted Model Time Plot of Actual Vs Forecast (T

Week Actual Forecast Residuals 100
1 88 * * 90
2 44 * * 80
3 60 * * 70
4 56 64 -8 60
Units Sold

5 70 53.33333 16.66667 50
6 91 62 29 40
7 54 72.33333 -18.3333 30
8 60 71.66667 -11.6667 20
9 48 68.33333 -20.3333 10
10 35 54 -19 0
11 49 47.66667 1.333333 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
12 44 44 0 Week
13 61 42.66667 18.33333
14 68 51.33333 16.66667
15 82 57.66667 24.33333
16 71 70.33333 0.666667
17 50 73.66667 -23.6667
 Date: 10-Dec-2017 18:28:08

Elapsed Times in Milliseconds

Smoothing Time Report Time Total
0 0 0

g Error Measures

I 25.37414
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 14.85714
Mean Square Error (MSE) 299.8413
Tracking Signal Error (TSE) 0.403846
Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE) 6
Mean Forecast Error (MFE) 0.428571

Actual Vs Forecast (Training Data) Forecast

Week Forecast LCI UCI

1 67.66667 33.4216 101.9117
2 67.66667 33.21086 102.1225
3 67.66667 33.0014 102.3319
4 67.66667 32.7932 102.5401
Forecast
5 67.66667 32.58623 102.7471
Actual

7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Week
Model Moving Average
Model Type
Simulate 0
Interval 3
Level
Trend
Seasonality
Period 0
#Forecasts 5
SelectedVariable Units Sold
Date: 10-Dec-2017 18:28:08
Tablet Computer Sales
K=2 Absolute Squared Absolute K=3
Week Units Sold Forecast Residuals Deviation Error % Error Forecast Residuals
1 88 * * * *
2 44 * * * *
3 60 66 -6 6.00 36.00 10.00 * *
4 56 52 4 4.00 16.00 7.14 64.00 -8.00
5 70 58 12 12.00 144.00 17.14 53.33 16.67
6 91 63 28 28.00 784.00 30.77 62.00 29.00
7 54 80.5 -26.5 26.50 702.25 49.07 72.33 -18.33
8 60 72.5 -12.5 12.50 156.25 20.83 71.67 -11.67
9 48 57 -9 9.00 81.00 18.75 68.33 -20.33
10 35 54 -19 19.00 361.00 54.29 54.00 -19.00
11 49 41.5 7.5 7.50 56.25 15.31 47.67 1.33
12 44 42 2 2.00 4.00 4.55 44.00 0.00
13 61 46.5 14.5 14.50 210.25 23.77 42.67 18.33
14 68 52.5 15.5 15.50 240.25 22.79 51.33 16.67
15 82 64.5 17.5 17.50 306.25 21.34 57.67 24.33
16 71 75 -4 4.00 16.00 5.63 70.33 0.67
17 50 76.5 -26.5 26.50 702.25 53.00 73.67 -23.67
13.63 254.38 23.63
MAD MSE MAPE

The Results suggest that 2 period moving average model provides the best forcast because ERROR

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 23.62597

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 13.63333
Mean Square Error (MSE) 254.3833

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) - Actual Differnce between the actual value and the forecast value

Mean Square Error (MSE) - It penalizes larger Errors because squaring larger numbers has a greater impact than squa
Root Mean Square Erroer ( RMSE) -

Mean Percentage Error (MAPE) - MAPE is Average of absulute Percentage Errors divided by actual observation values
 Absolute Squared Absolute
Deviation Error % Error

8.00 64.00 14.29

16.67 277.78 23.81
29.00 841.00 31.87
18.33 336.11 33.95
11.67 136.11 19.44
20.33 413.44 42.36
19.00 361.00 54.29
1.33 1.78 2.72
0.00 0.00 0.00
18.33 336.11 30.05
16.67 277.78 24.51
24.33 592.11 29.67
0.67 0.44 0.94
23.67 560.11 47.33
14.86 299.84 25.37
MAD MSE MAPE

ast because ERROR Metrics are smaller than model with 3 period moving average

ater impact than squaring small numbers

ual observation values
 XLMiner : Time Series - Moving Average Smoothing

Output Navigator
Inputs Train. Error MeasuresFitted Model Forecast

Inputs Training Error Measures

Data Mean Absolute Percentage Error

Workbook Tablet Computer Sales_ Moving Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Worksheet Sheet2 Mean Square Error (MSE)
Range $A$3:$B$20 Tracking Signal Error (TSE)
Selected Variable Units Sold Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE)
# Records in Input Data 17 Mean Forecast Error (MFE)

Parameters/Options
Interval 2
Forecast Yes
#Forecasts 5

Fitted Model Time Plot of Actual Vs Forecast (T

Week Actual Forecast Residuals 100
1 88 * * 90
2 44 * * 80
3 60 66 -6 70
4 56 52 4 60
Units Sold

5 70 58 12 50
6 91 63 28 40
7 54 80.5 -26.5 30
8 60 72.5 -12.5 20
9 48 57 -9 10
10 35 54 -19 0
11 49 41.5 7.5 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
12 44 42 2 Week
13 61 46.5 14.5
14 68 52.5 15.5
15 82 64.5 17.5
16 71 75 -4
17 50 76.5 -26.5
 Date: 10-Dec-2017 17:56:30

Elapsed Times in Milliseconds

Smoothing Time Report Time Total
0 0 0

g Error Measures

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 23.62597

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 13.63333
Mean Square Error (MSE) 254.3833
Tracking Signal Error (TSE) -0.18337
Cumulative Forecast Error (CFE) -2.5
Mean Forecast Error (MFE) -0.16667

Actual Vs Forecast (Training Data) Forecast

Week Forecast LCI UCI

1 60.5 27.62181 93.37819
2 60.5 26.60994 94.39006
3 60.5 25.62742 95.37258
4 60.5 24.67183 96.32817
Forecast
5 60.5 23.74107 97.25893
Actual

7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Week
Model Moving Average
Model Type
Simulate 0
Interval 2
Level
Trend
Seasonality
Period 0
#Forecasts 5
SelectedVariable Units Sold
Date: 10-Dec-2017 17:56:30