Introduction to

Probability
Unit: Probability
7th Grade Mathematics
Aja Juola
Lecture Goals:
Introduce and gain understanding of the basic terms, concepts and
formulas of probability.
California Common Core State Standards Addressed:
7. Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of
events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the
agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability
to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For
example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability
that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by
observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For
example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land
heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the
outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the
observed frequencies?
 Wouldn’t it be great to predict the future?

AS I
SEE IT
YES

If you had a magic 8 ball that always told the

truth, what questions would you ask?
 What is Probability?

Given a specified EVENT the PROBABILITY is the

CHANCE or LIKELIHOOD that the EVENT will occur.
KEY TERMS
• Outcome – the result of an experiment.

• Event – any particular outcome of or

group of outcomes.

• Sample Space – The set of all outcomes.

BASIC PROBABILITY FORMULA

The PROBABILITY of an EVENT E occurring is

abbreviated as:
P(E)

𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒐 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑬

𝑷 𝑬 =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒆
 EXAMPLE 1: Rolling a Standard Die
• The possible OUTCOMES are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

• The SAMPLE SPACE contains all 6 outcomes.

• EVENT A is rolling a 4.

𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒐 𝒓𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂 𝟒 𝟏

𝑷 𝑨 = = .
𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒆 𝟔
EXAMPLE 2: Rolling an Odd Number
• EVENT B is rolling an odd number.

• The possible odd OUTCOMES are 1, 3, 5.

• The SAMPLE SPACE remains the same, 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔 .

• So,
𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒅𝒅 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟑 𝟏
𝑷 𝑩 = = = .
𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒆 𝟔 𝟐

• That means you have a 50% chance of rolling an odd number.

𝟏 × 𝟓𝟎 𝟓𝟎
= .
𝟐 × 𝟓𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎
CHECKPOINT #1:

Let’s say you have a bag of candy

with 14 M&M’s and 6 Skittles. If
you eat one piece of candy
without looking, how likely is it
you’ll get an M&M?
CHECKPOINT #1: ANSWER
𝟏𝟒 𝟕
or or 70%
𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟎
Computation Reminders:

𝟏𝟒 𝟕×𝟐 𝟕
= =
𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟎 × 𝟐 𝟏𝟎

𝟕 𝟕 × 𝟏𝟎 𝟕𝟎
= = = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟎 = 𝟕𝟎%
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 × 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎
 CHECKPOINT #1: Breakdown Part 1
• Think of the bag as the SAMPLE SPACE.

• Each piece of candy in the bag is a

possible OUTCOME. s
m m
• We know we have 14 M&Ms and 6 Skittles. m m
S m m
m
𝟏𝟒 + 𝟔 = 𝟐𝟎 m m s
S S
m m
• So our SAMPLE SPACE contains 20 m
possible outcomes.
s m m
 CHECKPOINT #1: Breakdown Part 2
• EVENT C is eating an M&M. m m m m m m m
• We know there are 14 M&Ms in the m m m m m m m
bag.

• So our likelihood of getting an M&M

is 14 out of the 20 pieces of candy m m m m m m m
in the bag.
m m m m m m m
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒎&𝒎 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟏𝟒
• 𝑷 𝑪 = =
𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒚 𝟐𝟎 S s S s S S
 IMPOSSIBLE and CERTAIN
What’s the probability of m What’s the probability of
getting an M&M out of a getting an M&M out of a
bag of skittles? bag of M&Ms?

0% There are no 100% There are only

M&Ms in the bag. M&Ms in the bag.
It’s IMPOSSIBLE. It’s CERTAIN.
 RANGE OF PROBABILTY
All probability lies between IMPOSSIBLE and CERTAIN.
All probability lies between 0% chance and 100% chance.

Consider these percentages as fractions:

0% 100%
𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝟏
=
𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝟏

0 1
 So what’s with all the fractions?

All probability lies between 0 and 1.

𝟎 ≤ 𝑷 𝑬 ≤ 𝟏.
Since there are no whole numbers between 0 and 1,
any probability that isn’t impossible or certain must
be represented as a fraction.
 Probability Line

Impossible Unlikely Equally Likely Certain

Likely
0% 25% 50%
75% 100%
0 1/4 1/2 3/4 1
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Now let’s say we want to know the
likelihood an event won’t happen.
s
Going back to our previous example with m m
the bag of candy: m m
S m m
m
We have 14 M&M’s and 6 Skittles.
m m s
S S
What’s the likelihood you WON’T get an m m
M&M? m
s m m
 EVENT C’s COMPLEMENT
• EVENT 𝑪 is eating an M&M.
• EVENT 𝑪
ഥ is NOT eating an M&M.
S s S s S S
• We know there are 14 M&Ms in the
bag and the bag has 20 pieces of
candy. m m m m m m m
• So the likelihood of not eating an m m m m m m m
M&M is the same as eating one of
the 6 Skittles.
S s S s S S
𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒏𝒐𝒏−𝒎&𝒎 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝟔
ഥ
• 𝑷 𝑪 = =
𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒚 𝟐𝟎
 COMPLEMENTARY FORMULA
ഥ =𝟏 −𝑷 𝑬
𝑷 𝑬
1 is for our 100%, our Sample Space.

ഥ =𝟏 −𝑷 𝑪
𝑷 𝑪 30%
𝟕
=𝟏 −
70%
𝟏𝟎
𝟏𝟎 𝟕 𝟑
= − = = 𝟑𝟎%
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎
CHECKPOINT #2:
Event 𝑨 was rolling a 4 on a
standard die.

What’s the probability of Event 𝑨

ഥ?
CHECKPOINT #2: ANSWER

𝟓
𝟔
𝟏 𝟓
ഥ =𝟏− =
𝑷 𝑨
𝟔 𝟔
CHECKPOINT #2: Breakdown
Our SAMPLE SPACE for a
standard die is 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔 .

30% 𝟓
We can break up our sample
space into EVENT 𝑨 and
EVENT 𝑨 ഥ. 𝟔
𝟏
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 𝟔
BREAKING THE MAGIC 8 BALL
Inside every magic 8 ball is
icosahedron with 20 sides
AS I
containing:
SEE IT
• 10 Positive Answers, YES
“As I See It Yes”
• 5 Negative Answers,
“Very Doubtful”
• 5 Uncertain Answers,
“Ask Again Later”
CREATING A BRIGHTER FUTURE

How likely it is you’ll get a

positive answer?

How unlikely it is you’ll get a

negative answer?
 Make your own
Predictions
1. Use your new knowledge of
Probability to break down how
often you want different types AS I
of answers to appear. SEE IT
2. Fill in the pie graph provided in YES
your notes to display the
percentage break down.
3. Then come up with creative
answers for your Future
Predicting Die to display.
4. Have fun!