INTRODUCTION TO PROBABLITY

Basic Definitions
- Probability as a subject provides a means of quantifying uncertainty.
- Probability is the likelihood or chance that a particular event will occur.
Method Of Assigning Probabilities
A. The Classical Method;
- When probabilities are assigned based on laws and rules.
- Involves an experiment and event.

ne
P(E)=
N
Where;
N= Total possible number of outcomes of an experiment
ne = The number of out comes in which the event occurs out of N outcomes
-Probability can be determined prior to the experiment (probability can be determined priori)
Example;
If a company has 200 workers and 70 are female, the probability of randomly selecting a female from
70
this company is = 0.35
20
- 0  p E   1 = (Range of possible probabilities)
B. Relative F frequency Of Occurrence
- Is based on cumulative historical data.

Probablity by
Relative Frequency Of = Number Of time an Event Occurred
Total Number of Opportunities for The event To Occur
Example;
Data gathered from company book record show that the supplier had sent the company 90 batches in
the past, and inspectors had rejected 10 of them. By the method of relative frequency of occurrence,
10
the probability of the inspector rejecting the next batch is ,or 0.11.If the next batch is rejected .
90
11
the relative frequency of occurrence probability for the subsequent shipment would change to .
90
Or 0.12 .
SUBJECTIVE PROBABLITY
A probability assigned based on the intuition or reasoning of the person determining the probability.

STRUCTURE OF PROBABLITY
1. Experment ; a process that produce outcomes
2. Event ; Outcome of an exeperment
Example;
Experiment; Sample five bottles coming off a product line
Event; Get one defective and four good bottles
3. Elementary events; Events that can not be decomposed or broken down in to other
events.
Example;
- In the experiment of rolling a die, there are six elementary events  1, 2 , 3, 4 , 5, 6 
- Rolling an even number is an event, but it is not an elementary event because the even
number can be broken down further in to events 2, 4. 6 .
4. Sample space; A complete listing of all elementary events for an experiment.
Example;

1
The sample space for the roll of a single die is  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  .
MUTUALY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
-Events such that the occurrence of one precludes the occurrence of the other.
Example;
In a toss of a single coin, heads and tails are mutually exclusive events.
-P  X  Y  = 0 mutually exclusive events x and y.

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
-Events such that the occurrence or non occurrence of one has no effects on the occurrence of
the others.
-Sampling is done with replacement
- P(X/Y)=P(X) and P(Y/X)= P(Y) Independent events x and y
Example;
P  Prefers Pepsi/Persons is right handed  = P  Prefers Pepsi 
COLLECTIVELY EXAHAUSTIVE EVENTS
- A list of collectively exhaustive events contains all possible elementary events for an
experiment. Thus all sample space are collective exhaustive lists.]
COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
The complement of events A is denoted A', pronounced “not A”. All the elementary events
for an experiment not in A comprise its complement.
Example;
In rolling one die , event A is getting an even number, the complement of a is getting an odd
number .
P  A'  = 1– P  A 
COUNTING THE POSSIBLITIES
In statistics, there is a collection of techniques and rules for counting the number of outcomes
that can occur for a particular experiment.
1. The mn counting rule
If an operation can be done m ways and a second operation can be done n ways, then there are
mn ways for the two operations to occur in order. This rule can be extended to cases with
three or more operations.
Exzample;
Suppose a customer has decided to buy a certain brand of new car .The car has as options two
different engines, five different paint colors, and three interior packages. If each of these
options is available with each of the others, how many different cars could the customer
choose from?
Using the mn counting rule , we can determine that the automobile customer has
 2   5   3  =30 different car combinations of engines ,paint colors ,and interiors
available.
2. Sampling From The Population With Replacement
In sampling n items from a population of siz N wit replacement there are
 N n  Possibilities, where N=Population size
n= Sample size