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<h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading" lang="en">Uncertainty</h1>
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<div id="mw-content-text" lang="en" dir="ltr" class="mw-content-
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searchable">For the film of the same name, see <a href="/wiki/Uncertainty_(film)"
title="Uncertainty (film)">Uncertainty (film)</a>.</div>
<div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux"
style="display:none">Situation which involves imperfect and/or unknown information,
regarding the existing state, environment, a future outcome or more than one
possible outcomes</div>
<style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1003042402">.mw-parser-output
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important;clear:both;float:none;margin-left:0!important;margin-right:0!
important}}</style><table class="sidebar sidebar-collapse vertical-navbox
nomobile"><tbody><tr><td class="sidebar-pretitle">Part of a series
on</td></tr><tr><th class="sidebar-title-with-pretitle"><a
href="/wiki/Epistemology" title="Epistemology">Epistemology</a></th></tr><tr><td
class="sidebar-above navbox-abovebelow" style="padding:0.15em 0.15em 0.25em;
display:block; margin-bottom:0.55em; background-color: #efefef;">
<div class="hlist hlist-separated">
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Category:Epistemology"
title="Category:Epistemology">Category</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Index_of_epistemology_articles" title="Index of epistemology
articles">Index</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Outline_of_epistemology" title="Outline of
epistemology">Outline</a></li></ul>
</div></td></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content hlist" style="padding-
left:0.5em;padding-right:0.5em;">
<p><b>Core concepts</b>
</p>
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Belief" title="Belief">Belief</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Justification_(epistemology)" title="Justification
(epistemology)">Justification</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Knowledge" title="Knowledge">Knowledge</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Truth" title="Truth">Truth</a></li></ul></td>
</tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content hlist" style="padding-left:0.5em;padding-
right:0.5em;">
<hr />
<p><b>Distinctions</b>
</p>
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/A_priori_and_a_posteriori" title="A priori and a
posteriori">A priori vs. A posteriori</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Analytic%E2%80%93synthetic_distinction" title="Analytic–
synthetic distinction">Analytic vs. Synthetic</a></li></ul></td>
right:0.5em;">
<hr />
<p><b>Schools of thought</b>
</p>
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Empiricism" title="Empiricism">Empiricism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Naturalized_epistemology" title="Naturalized
epistemology">Naturalism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Pragmatism" title="Pragmatism">Pragmatism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Rationalism" title="Rationalism">Rationalism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Relativism" title="Relativism">Relativism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Philosophical_skepticism" title="Philosophical
skepticism">Skepticism</a></li></ul></td>
right:0.5em;">
<hr />
<p><b>Topics and views</b>
</p>
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Certainty" title="Certainty">Certainty</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Coherentism" title="Coherentism">Coherentism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Contextualism" title="Contextualism">Contextualism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Dogmatism" class="mw-redirect"
title="Dogmatism">Dogmatism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Experience" title="Experience">Experience</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Fallibilism" title="Fallibilism">Fallibilism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Foundationalism"
title="Foundationalism">Foundationalism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Problem_of_induction" title="Problem of
induction">Induction</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Infallibilism" title="Infallibilism">Infallibilism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Infinitism" title="Infinitism">Infinitism</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Rationality" title="Rationality">Rationality</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Reason" title="Reason">Reason</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Solipsism" title="Solipsism">Solipsism</a></li></ul></td>
right:0.5em;">
<hr />
<p><b>Specialized domains of inquiry</b>
</p>
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Evolutionary_epistemology" title="Evolutionary
epistemology">Evolutionary epistemology</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Feminist_epistemology" title="Feminist epistemology">Feminist
epistemology</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Formal_epistemology" title="Formal epistemology">Formal
epistemology</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Metaepistemology"
title="Metaepistemology">Metaepistemology</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Social_epistemology" title="Social epistemology">Social
epistemology</a></li></ul></td>
right:0.5em;">
<hr />
<p><b>Notable epistemologists</b>
</p>
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ren%C3%A9_Descartes" title="René Descartes">René
Descartes</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Sextus_Empiricus" title="Sextus Empiricus">Sextus
Empiricus</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Edmund_Gettier" title="Edmund Gettier">Edmund Gettier</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/David_Hume" title="David Hume">David Hume</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Immanuel_Kant" title="Immanuel Kant">Immanuel Kant</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Willard_Van_Orman_Quine" title="Willard Van Orman Quine">W. V.
O. Quine</a></li>
<li><i><a href="/wiki/List_of_epistemologists" title="List of
epistemologists">more...</a></i></li></ul></td>
right:0.5em;">
<hr />
<p><b>Related fields</b>
</p>
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Epistemic_logic" class="mw-redirect" title="Epistemic
logic">Epistemic logic</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Philosophy_of_mind" title="Philosophy of mind">Philosophy of
mind</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Philosophy_of_perception" title="Philosophy of
perception">Philosophy of perception</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Philosophy_of_science" title="Philosophy of science">Philosophy
of science</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Bayesian_probability" title="Bayesian
probability">Probability</a></li></ul></td>
</tr><tr><td class="sidebar-navbar"><style data-mw-
deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r992953826">.mw-parser-output
.navbar{display:inline;font-size:88%;font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .navbar-
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plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a
href="/wiki/Template:Epistemology_sidebar" title="Template:Epistemology
sidebar"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a
href="/wiki/Template_talk:Epistemology_sidebar" title="Template talk:Epistemology
sidebar"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-
edit"><a class="external text" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?
title=Template:Epistemology_sidebar&action=edit"><abbr title="Edit this
template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<div class="thumb tright"><div class="thumbinner" style="width:222px;"><a
href="/wiki/File:Blank_Fork.png" class="image"><img alt=""
src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/Blank_Fork.png/220px-
Blank_Fork.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="165" class="thumbimage"
srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/Blank_Fork.png/330px-
Blank_Fork.png 1.5x,
//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/Blank_Fork.png/440px-
Blank_Fork.png 2x" data-file-width="640" data-file-height="480" /></a> <div
class="thumbcaption"><div class="magnify"><a href="/wiki/File:Blank_Fork.png"
class="internal" title="Enlarge"></a></div>Situations often arise wherein a
decision must be made when the results of each possible choice are
uncertain.</div></div></div>
<p><b>Uncertainty</b> refers to <a href="/wiki/Epistemology"
title="Epistemology">epistemic</a> situations involving imperfect or unknown <a
href="/wiki/Information" title="Information">information</a>. It applies to
predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to
the unknown. Uncertainty arises in <a href="/wiki/Partially_observable" class="mw-
redirect" title="Partially observable">partially observable</a> and/or <a
href="/wiki/Stochastic" title="Stochastic">stochastic</a> environments, as well as
due to <a href="/wiki/Ignorance" title="Ignorance">ignorance</a>, <a
href="/wiki/Laziness" title="Laziness">indolence</a>, or both.<sup id="cite_ref-1"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1">[1]</a></sup> It arises in any
number of fields, including <a href="/wiki/Insurance"
title="Insurance">insurance</a>, <a href="/wiki/Philosophy"
title="Philosophy">philosophy</a>, <a href="/wiki/Physics"
title="Physics">physics</a>, <a href="/wiki/Statistics"
title="Statistics">statistics</a>, <a href="/wiki/Economics"
title="Economics">economics</a>, <a href="/wiki/Finance"
title="Finance">finance</a>, <a href="/wiki/Psychology"
title="Psychology">psychology</a>, <a href="/wiki/Sociology"
title="Sociology">sociology</a>, <a href="/wiki/Engineering"
title="Engineering">engineering</a>, <a href="/wiki/Metrology"
title="Metrology">metrology</a>, <a href="/wiki/Meteorology"
title="Meteorology">meteorology</a>, <a href="/wiki/Ecology"
title="Ecology">ecology</a> and <a href="/wiki/Information_science"
title="Information science">information science</a>.
</p>
<div id="toc" class="toc" role="navigation" aria-labelledby="mw-toc-heading"><input
type="checkbox" role="button" id="toctogglecheckbox" class="toctogglecheckbox"
style="display:none" /><div class="toctitle" lang="en" dir="ltr"><h2 id="mw-toc-
heading">Contents</h2><span class="toctogglespan"><label class="toctogglelabel"
for="toctogglecheckbox"></label></span></div>
<ul>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1"><a href="#Concepts"><span
class="tocnumber">1</span> <span class="toctext">Concepts</span></a></li>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-2"><a href="#Measurements"><span
class="tocnumber">2</span> <span class="toctext">Measurements</span></a></li>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-3"><a href="#In_the_media"><span
class="tocnumber">3</span> <span class="toctext">In the media</span></a></li>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-4"><a href="#Applications"><span
class="tocnumber">4</span> <span class="toctext">Applications</span></a></li>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-5"><a href="#Philosophy"><span
class="tocnumber">5</span> <span class="toctext">Philosophy</span></a></li>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-6"><a href="#See_also"><span
class="tocnumber">6</span> <span class="toctext">See also</span></a></li>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-7"><a href="#References"><span
class="tocnumber">7</span> <span class="toctext">References</span></a></li>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-8"><a href="#Further_reading"><span
class="tocnumber">8</span> <span class="toctext">Further reading</span></a></li>
<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-9"><a href="#External_links"><span
class="tocnumber">9</span> <span class="toctext">External links</span></a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Concepts">Concepts</span><span class="mw-

editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?
title=Uncertainty&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section:
Concepts">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<table class="box-Very_long_section plainlinks metadata ambox ambox-style ambox-
very_long" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><div
style="width:52px"><img alt=""
src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f2/Edit-clear.svg/40px-Edit-
clear.svg.png" decoding="async" width="40" height="40"
srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f2/Edit-clear.svg/60px-Edit-
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clear.svg/80px-Edit-clear.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="48" data-file-height="48"
/></div></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span">This section <b>may
be <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Article_size" title="Wikipedia:Article size">too
long</a> to read and navigate comfortably</b>.<span class="hide-when-compact">
Please consider <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Splitting"
title="Wikipedia:Splitting">splitting</a> content into sub-articles, <a
href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Summary_style" title="Wikipedia:Summary style">condensing</a>
it, or adding <a href="/wiki/Help:Section#Subsections"
title="Help:Section">subheadings</a>. Please discuss this issue on the article's <a
href="/wiki/Talk:Uncertainty" title="Talk:Uncertainty">talk page</a>.</span>
<small class="date-container"><i>(<span class="date">November
2017</span>)</i></small></div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<p>Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many
specialists in <a href="/wiki/Decision_theory" title="Decision theory">decision
theory</a>, <a href="/wiki/Statistics" title="Statistics">statistics</a> and other
quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as:
</p>
<dl><dt>Uncertainty</dt>
<dd>The lack of <a href="/wiki/Certainty" title="Certainty">certainty</a>, a state
of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state,
a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome. <sup id="cite_ref-2"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2">[2]</a></sup></dd>
<dt>Measurement of uncertainty</dt>
<dd>A set of possible states or outcomes where <a href="/wiki/Probabilities"
class="mw-redirect" title="Probabilities">probabilities</a> are assigned to each
possible state or outcome – this also includes the application of a <a
href="/wiki/Probability_density_function" title="Probability density
function">probability density function</a> to continuous variables.<sup
id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3">[3]</a></sup></dd>
<dt>Second order uncertainty</dt>
<dd>In statistics and economics, second-order uncertainty is represented in
probability density functions over (first-order) probabilities.<sup id="cite_ref-4"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4">[4]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-5"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5">[5]</a></sup></dd>
<dd>Opinions in <a href="/wiki/Subjective_logic" title="Subjective
logic">subjective logic</a> <sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a
href="#cite_note-6">[6]</a></sup> carry this type of uncertainty.</dd>
<dt><a href="/wiki/Risk" title="Risk">Risk</a></dt>
<dd>A state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or
significant loss.</dd>
<dt>Measurement of risk</dt>
<dd>A set of measured uncertainties where some possible outcomes are losses, and
the magnitudes of those losses – this also includes loss functions over continuous
variables.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-
7">[7]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-
8">[8]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-
9">[9]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a
href="#cite_note-10">[10]</a></sup></dd></dl>
<dl><dt>Knightian uncertainty</dt>
<dd>In economics, in 1921 <a href="/wiki/Frank_Knight" title="Frank Knight">Frank
Knight</a> distinguished uncertainty from risk with uncertainty being lack of
knowledge which is immeasurable and impossible to calculate; this is now referred
to as <a href="/wiki/Knightian_uncertainty" title="Knightian uncertainty">Knightian
uncertainty</a>:</dd></dl>
<style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r996844942">.mw-parser-output
.templatequote{overflow:hidden;margin:1em 0;padding:0 40px}.mw-parser-output
.templatequote .templatequotecite{line-height:1.5em;text-align:left;padding-
left:1.6em;margin-top:0}</style><blockquote class="templatequote"><p>Uncertainty
must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk, from
which it has never been properly separated.... The essential fact is that 'risk'
means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it
is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and
crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two
is really present and operating.... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty,
or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an
unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all.</p><div
class="templatequotecite">— <cite><a href="/wiki/Frank_Knight" title="Frank
Knight">Frank Knight</a> (1885–1972), <i>Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit</i> (1921),
<a href="/wiki/University_of_Chicago" title="University of Chicago">University of
Chicago</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-
11">[11]</a></sup></cite></div></blockquote>
<link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-
data:TemplateStyles:r996844942"/><blockquote class="templatequote"><p>You cannot be
certain about uncertainty.</p><div class="templatequotecite">— <cite>Frank
Knight</cite></div></blockquote>
<p>Other taxonomies of uncertainties and decisions include a broader sense of
uncertainty and how it should be approached from an ethics perspective:<sup
id="cite_ref-embo1_12-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-embo1-
12">[12]</a></sup>
</p>
<div class="thumb tleft"><div class="thumbinner" style="width:552px;"><a
href="/wiki/File:Uncertainty.svg" class="image"><img alt=""
src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7b/Uncertainty.svg/550px-
Uncertainty.svg.png" decoding="async" width="550" height="223" class="thumbimage"
srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7b/Uncertainty.svg/825px-
Uncertainty.svg.png 1.5x,
//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7b/Uncertainty.svg/1100px-
Uncertainty.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="580" data-file-height="235" /></a> <div
class="thumbcaption"><div class="magnify"><a href="/wiki/File:Uncertainty.svg"
class="internal" title="Enlarge"></a></div>A taxonomy of
uncertainty</div></div></div>
<div style="clear:both;"></div>
<div class="quotebox pullquote floatright" style="width:33%; ;"><style data-mw-
deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r887775652">.mw-parser-output .quotebox{background-
color:#F9F9F9;border:1px solid #aaa;box-sizing:border-box;padding:10px;font-
size:88%;max-width:100%}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatleft{margin:0.5em 1.4em
0.8em 0}.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatright{margin:0.5em 0 0.8em 1.4em}.mw-
parser-output .quotebox.centered{margin:0.5em auto 0.8em auto}.mw-parser-output
.quotebox.floatleft p,.mw-parser-output .quotebox.floatright p{font-
style:inherit}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-title{background-color:#F9F9F9;text-
align:center;font-size:larger;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .quotebox-
quote.quoted:before{font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-weight:bold;font-
size:large;color:gray;content:" “ ";vertical-align:-45%;line-height:0}.mw-parser-
output .quotebox-quote.quoted:after{font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;font-
weight:bold;font-size:large;color:gray;content:" ” ";line-height:0}.mw-parser-
output .quotebox .left-aligned{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .right-
aligned{text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .quotebox .center-aligned{text-
align:center}.mw-parser-output .quotebox cite{display:block;font-
style:normal}@media screen and (max-width:360px){.mw-parser-output .quotebox{min-
width:100%;margin:0 0 0.8em!important;float:none!important}}</style>
<div class="quotebox-quote left-aligned" style="">There are some things that you
know to be true, and others that you know to be false; yet, despite this extensive
knowledge that you have, there remain many things whose truth or falsity is not
known to you. We say that you are uncertain about them. You are uncertain, to
varying degrees, about everything in the future; much of the past is hidden from
you; and there is a lot of the present about which you do not have full
information. Uncertainty is everywhere and you cannot escape from it.</div>
<p><cite class="right-aligned" style=""><a href="/wiki/Dennis_Lindley"
title="Dennis Lindley">Dennis Lindley</a>, <i>Understanding Uncertainty</i>
(2006)</cite>
</p>
</div>
<p>For example, if it is unknown whether or not it will rain tomorrow, then there
is a state of uncertainty. If probabilities are applied to the possible outcomes
using weather forecasts or even just a <a
href="/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessment" title="Calibrated probability
assessment">calibrated probability assessment</a>, the uncertainty has been
quantified. Suppose it is quantified as a 90% chance of sunshine. If there is a
major, costly, outdoor event planned for tomorrow then there is a risk since there
is a 10% chance of rain, and rain would be undesirable. Furthermore, if this is a
business event and $100,000 would be lost if it rains, then the risk has been
quantified (a 10% chance of losing $100,000). These situations can be made even
more realistic by quantifying light rain vs. heavy rain, the cost of delays vs.
outright cancellation, etc.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact"
style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed"
title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to
reliable sources. (November 2017)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup>
</p><p>Some may represent the risk in this example as the "expected opportunity
loss" (EOL) or the chance of the loss multiplied by the amount of the loss (10% ×
$100,000 = $10,000). That is useful if the organizer of the event is "risk
neutral", which most people are not. Most would be willing to pay a premium to
avoid the loss. An insurance company, for example, would compute an EOL as a
minimum for any insurance coverage, then add onto that other operating costs and
profit. Since many people are willing to buy insurance for many reasons, then
clearly the EOL alone is not the perceived value of avoiding the risk.
</p><p>Quantitative uses of the terms uncertainty and risk are fairly consistent
from fields such as <a href="/wiki/Probability_theory" title="Probability
theory">probability theory</a>, <a href="/wiki/Actuarial_science" title="Actuarial
science">actuarial science</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Information_theory"
title="Information theory">information theory</a>. Some also create new terms
without substantially changing the definitions of uncertainty or risk. For example,
<a href="/wiki/Surprisal" class="mw-redirect" title="Surprisal">surprisal</a> is a
variation on uncertainty sometimes used in <a href="/wiki/Information_theory"
title="Information theory">information theory</a>. But outside of the more
mathematical uses of the term, usage may vary widely. In <a
href="/wiki/Cognitive_psychology" title="Cognitive psychology">cognitive
psychology</a>, uncertainty can be real, or just a matter of perception, such as <a
href="/wiki/Expectation_(epistemic)" title="Expectation
(epistemic)">expectations</a>, threats, etc.
</p><p><a href="/wiki/Vagueness" title="Vagueness">Vagueness</a> is a form of
uncertainty where the analyst is unable to clearly differentiate between two
different classes, such as 'person of average height.' and 'tall person'. This form
of vagueness can be modelled by some variation on <a href="/wiki/Lotfi_A._Zadeh"
title="Lotfi A. Zadeh">Zadeh</a>'s <a href="/wiki/Fuzzy_logic" title="Fuzzy
logic">fuzzy logic</a> or <a href="/wiki/Subjective_logic" title="Subjective
logic">subjective logic</a>.
</p><p><a href="/wiki/Ambiguity" title="Ambiguity">Ambiguity</a> is a form of
uncertainty where even the possible outcomes have unclear meanings and
interpretations. The statement <i>"He returns from the bank"</i> is ambiguous
because its interpretation depends on whether the word 'bank' is meant as <i>"the
side of a river"</i> or <i>"a financial institution"</i>. Ambiguity typically
arises in situations where multiple analysts or observers have different
interpretations of the same statements.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template
Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a
href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span
title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (November 2017)">citation
needed</span></a></i>]</sup>
</p><p>Uncertainty may be a consequence of a lack of knowledge of obtainable facts.
That is, there may be uncertainty about whether a new rocket design will work, but
this uncertainty can be removed with further analysis and experimentation.
</p><p>At the subatomic level, uncertainty may be a fundamental and unavoidable
property of the universe. In <a href="/wiki/Quantum_mechanics" title="Quantum
mechanics">quantum mechanics</a>, the <a
href="/wiki/Heisenberg_uncertainty_principle" class="mw-redirect" title="Heisenberg
uncertainty principle">Heisenberg uncertainty principle</a> puts limits on how much
an observer can ever know about the position and velocity of a particle. This may
not just be ignorance of potentially obtainable facts but that there is no fact to
be found. There is some controversy in physics as to whether such uncertainty is an
irreducible property of nature or if there are "hidden variables" that would
describe the state of a particle even more exactly than Heisenberg's uncertainty
principle allows.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-
space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed"
</p>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Measurements">Measurements</span><span class="mw-
Measurements">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a
href="/wiki/Measurement_uncertainty" title="Measurement uncertainty">Measurement
uncertainty</a></div>
<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a
href="/wiki/Uncertainty_quantification" title="Uncertainty
quantification">Uncertainty quantification</a> and <a
href="/wiki/Uncertainty_propagation" class="mw-redirect" title="Uncertainty
propagation">Uncertainty propagation</a></div>
<p>The most commonly used procedure for calculating measurement uncertainty is
described in the "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement" (GUM)
published by <a href="/wiki/ISO" class="mw-redirect" title="ISO">ISO</a>. A derived
work is for example the <a
href="/wiki/National_Institute_of_Standards_and_Technology" title="National
Institute of Standards and Technology">National Institute of Standards and
Technology</a> (NIST) Technical Note 1297, "Guidelines for Evaluating and
Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results", and the Eurachem/Citac
publication "Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurement". The uncertainty of
the result of a measurement generally consists of several components. The
components are regarded as <a href="/wiki/Random_variables" class="mw-redirect"
title="Random variables">random variables</a>, and may be grouped into two
categories according to the method used to estimate their numerical values:
</p>
<ul><li>Type A, those evaluated by <a href="/wiki/Statistical" class="mw-redirect"
title="Statistical">statistical</a> methods</li>
<li>Type B, those evaluated by other means, e.g., by assigning a <a
href="/wiki/Probability_distribution" title="Probability distribution">probability
distribution</a></li></ul>
<p>By propagating the <a href="/wiki/Variance" title="Variance">variances</a> of
the components through a function relating the components to the measurement
result, the combined measurement uncertainty is given as the square root of the
resulting variance. The simplest form is the <a href="/wiki/Standard_deviation"
title="Standard deviation">standard deviation</a> of a repeated observation.
</p><p>In <a href="/wiki/Metereology" class="mw-redirect"
title="Metereology">metereology</a>, <a href="/wiki/Physics"
title="Physics">physics</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Engineering"
title="Engineering">engineering</a>, the uncertainty or <a
href="/wiki/Margin_of_error" title="Margin of error">margin of error</a> of a
measurement, when explicitly stated, is given by a range of values likely to
enclose the true value. This may be denoted by <a href="/wiki/Error_bar"
title="Error bar">error bars</a> on a graph, or by the following notations:<sup
class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-
</p>
<ul><li><i>measured value</i> ± <i>uncertainty</i></li>
<li><i>measured value</i> <span style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-
0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-height:1.2em;font-size:80%;text-align:left"><sup
style="font-size:inherit;line-height:inherit;vertical-
align:baseline">+uncertainty</sup><br /><sub style="font-size:inherit;line-
height:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">−uncertainty</sub></span></li>
<li><i>measured value</i> (<i>uncertainty</i>)</li></ul>
<p><span class="anchor" id="Shortest_help_for_uncertainty_notation"></span>
In the last notation, parentheses are the concise notation for the ± notation. For
example, applying 10 <span class="frac
nowrap"><sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>2</sub></span> meters in a scientific or
engineering application, it could be written <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
value="7001105000000000000♠"></span>10.5 m</span> or <span
class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
value="7001105000000000000♠"></span>10.50 m</span>, by convention meaning
accurate to <i>within</i> one tenth of a meter, or one hundredth. The precision is
symmetric around the last digit. In this case it's half a tenth up and half a tenth
down, so 10.5 means between 10.45 and 10.55. Thus it is <i>understood</i> that 10.5
means <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
value="7001105000000000000♠"></span>10.5<span style="margin-left:0.3em;margin-
right:0.15em;">±</span>0.05</span>, and 10.50 means <span class="nowrap"><span
data-sort-value="7001105000000000000♠"></span>10.50<span style="margin-
left:0.3em;margin-right:0.15em;">±</span>0.005</span>, also written <span
class="nowrap"><span data-sort-value="7001105000000000000♠"></span>10.50(5)</span>
and <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
value="7001105000000000000♠"></span>10.500(5)</span> respectively. But if the
accuracy is within two tenths, the uncertainty is ± one tenth, and it is
<i>required</i> to be explicit: <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
right:0.15em;">±</span>0.1</span> and <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
right:0.15em;">±</span>0.01</span> or <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
value="7001105000000000000♠"></span>10.5(1)</span> and <span class="nowrap"><span
data-sort-value="7001105000000000000♠"></span>10.50(1)</span>. The numbers in
parentheses <i>apply</i> to the numeral left of themselves, and are not part of
that number, but part of a notation of uncertainty. They apply to the <a
href="/wiki/Significant_figure" class="mw-redirect" title="Significant
figure">least significant digits</a>. For instance, <span class="nowrap"><span
data-sort-value="7000100794000000000♠"></span>1.007<span style="margin-
left:.25em;">94</span>(7)</span> stands for <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
value="7000100794000000000♠"></span>1.007<span style="margin-
left:.25em;">94</span><span style="margin-left:0.3em;margin-
right:0.15em;">±</span>0.000<span style="margin-left:.25em;">07</span></span>,
while <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
left:.25em;">94</span>(72)</span> stands for <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
left:.25em;">94</span><span style="margin-left:0.3em;margin-
right:0.15em;">±</span>0.000<span style="margin-left:.25em;">72</span></span>.<sup
id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13">[13]</a></sup>
This concise notation is used for example by <a href="/wiki/IUPAC" class="mw-
redirect" title="IUPAC">IUPAC</a> in stating the <a
href="/wiki/List_of_elements_by_atomic_mass" class="mw-redirect" title="List of
elements by atomic mass">atomic mass</a> of <a href="/wiki/Chemical_element"
title="Chemical element">elements</a>.
</p><p>The middle notation is used when the error is not symmetrical about the
value – for example <span class="nowrap"><span data-sort-
value="7000340000000000000♠"></span>3.4<span style="margin-left:0.3em;"><span
style="display:inline-block;margin-bottom:-0.3em;vertical-align:-0.4em;line-
height:1.2em;font-size:85%;text-align:right;">+0.3<br />−0.2</span></span></span>.
This can occur when using a logarithmic scale, for example.
</p><p>Uncertainty of a measurement can be determined by repeating a measurement to
arrive at an estimate of the standard deviation of the values. Then, any single
value has an uncertainty equal to the standard deviation. However, if the values
are averaged, then the mean measurement value has a much smaller uncertainty, equal
to the <a href="/wiki/Standard_error_(statistics)" class="mw-redirect"
title="Standard error (statistics)">standard error</a> of the mean, which is the
standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of measurements. This
procedure neglects <a href="/wiki/Systematic_error" class="mw-redirect"
title="Systematic error">systematic errors</a>, however.<sup class="noprint Inline-
Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a
href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span
title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (November 2017)">citation
needed</span></a></i>]</sup>
</p><p>When the uncertainty represents the standard error of the measurement, then
about 68.3% of the time, the true value of the measured quantity falls within the
stated uncertainty range. For example, it is likely that for 31.7% of the atomic
mass values given on the <a href="/wiki/List_of_elements_by_atomic_mass" class="mw-
redirect" title="List of elements by atomic mass">list of elements by atomic
mass</a>, the true value lies outside of the stated range. If the width of the
interval is doubled, then probably only 4.6% of the true values lie outside the
doubled interval, and if the width is tripled, probably only 0.3% lie outside.
These values follow from the properties of the <a href="/wiki/Normal_distribution"
title="Normal distribution">normal distribution</a>, and they apply only if the
measurement process produces normally distributed errors. In that case, the quoted
<a href="/wiki/Standard_error_(statistics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Standard
error (statistics)">standard errors</a> are easily converted to 68.3% ("one <a
href="/wiki/Sigma" title="Sigma">sigma</a>"), 95.4% ("two sigma"), or 99.7% ("three
sigma") <a href="/wiki/Confidence_interval" title="Confidence interval">confidence
intervals</a>.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-
reliable sources. (September 2014)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup>
</p><p>In this context, uncertainty depends on both the <a
href="/wiki/Accuracy_and_precision" title="Accuracy and precision">accuracy and
precision</a> of the measurement instrument. The lower the accuracy and precision
of an instrument, the larger the measurement uncertainty is. Precision is often
determined as the standard deviation of the repeated measures of a given value,
namely using the same method described above to assess measurement uncertainty.
However, this method is correct only when the instrument is accurate. When it is
inaccurate, the uncertainty is larger than the standard deviation of the repeated
measures, and it appears evident that the uncertainty does not depend only on
instrumental precision.
</p>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="In_the_media">In the media</span><span class="mw-
title=Uncertainty&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: In the
media">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<p>Uncertainty in science, and science in general, may be interpreted differently
in the public sphere than in the scientific community.<sup id="cite_ref-zehr_14-0"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-zehr-14">[14]</a></sup> This is due
in part to the diversity of the public audience, and the tendency for scientists to
misunderstand lay audiences and therefore not communicate ideas clearly and
effectively.<sup id="cite_ref-zehr_14-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-
zehr-14">[14]</a></sup> One example is explained by the <a
href="/wiki/Information_deficit_model" title="Information deficit
model">information deficit model</a>. Also, in the public realm, there are often
many scientific voices giving input on a single topic.<sup id="cite_ref-zehr_14-2"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-zehr-14">[14]</a></sup> For example,
depending on how an issue is reported in the public sphere, discrepancies between
outcomes of multiple scientific studies due to methodological differences could be
interpreted by the public as a lack of consensus in a situation where a consensus
does in fact exist.<sup id="cite_ref-zehr_14-3" class="reference"><a
href="#cite_note-zehr-14">[14]</a></sup> This interpretation may have even
been intentionally promoted, as scientific uncertainty may be managed to reach
certain goals. For example, <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_deniers" class="mw-
redirect" title="Climate change deniers">climate change deniers</a> took the advice
of <a href="/wiki/Frank_Luntz" title="Frank Luntz">Frank Luntz</a> to frame <a
href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">global
warming</a> as an issue of scientific uncertainty, which was a precursor to the
conflict frame used by journalists when reporting the issue.<sup id="cite_ref-15"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15">[15]</a></sup>
</p><p>"Indeterminacy can be loosely said to apply to situations in which not all
the parameters of the system and their interactions are fully known, whereas
ignorance refers to situations in which it is not known what is not known."<sup
These unknowns, indeterminacy and ignorance, that exist in science are often
"transformed" into uncertainty when reported to the public in order to make issues
more manageable, since scientific indeterminacy and ignorance are difficult
concepts for scientists to convey without losing credibility.<sup id="cite_ref-
zehr_14-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-zehr-14">[14]</a></sup>
Conversely, uncertainty is often interpreted by the public as ignorance.<sup
The transformation of indeterminacy and ignorance into uncertainty may be related
to the public's misinterpretation of uncertainty as ignorance.
</p><p>Journalists may inflate uncertainty (making the science seem more uncertain
than it really is) or downplay uncertainty (making the science seem more certain
than it really is).<sup id="cite_ref-stocking_18-0" class="reference"><a
href="#cite_note-stocking-18">[18]</a></sup> One way that journalists
inflate uncertainty is by describing new research that contradicts past research
without providing context for the change.<sup id="cite_ref-stocking_18-1"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stocking-18">[18]</a></sup>
Journalists may give scientists with minority views equal weight as scientists with
majority views, without adequately describing or explaining the state of <a
href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus" title="Scientific consensus">scientific
consensus</a> on the issue.<sup id="cite_ref-stocking_18-2" class="reference"><a
href="#cite_note-stocking-18">[18]</a></sup> In the same vein, journalists
may give non-scientists the same amount of attention and importance as
scientists.<sup id="cite_ref-stocking_18-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-
stocking-18">[18]</a></sup>
</p><p>Journalists may downplay uncertainty by eliminating "scientists' carefully
chosen tentative wording, and by losing these caveats the information is skewed and
presented as more certain and conclusive than it really is".<sup id="cite_ref-
stocking_18-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stocking-
18">[18]</a></sup> Also, stories with a single source or without any
context of previous research mean that the subject at hand is presented as more
definitive and certain than it is in reality.<sup id="cite_ref-stocking_18-5"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stocking-18">[18]</a></sup> There is
often a "product over process" approach to <a href="/wiki/Science_journalism"
title="Science journalism">science journalism</a> that aids, too, in the
downplaying of uncertainty.<sup id="cite_ref-stocking_18-6" class="reference"><a
href="#cite_note-stocking-18">[18]</a></sup> Finally, and most notably for
this investigation, when science is framed by journalists as a triumphant quest,
uncertainty is erroneously framed as "reducible and resolvable".<sup id="cite_ref-
stocking_18-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-stocking-
18">[18]</a></sup>
</p><p>Some media routines and organizational factors affect the overstatement of
uncertainty; other media routines and organizational factors help inflate the
certainty of an issue. Because the general public (in the United States) generally
trusts scientists, when science stories are covered without alarm-raising cues from
special interest organizations (religious groups, environmental organizations,
political factions, etc.) they are often covered in a business related sense, in an
economic-development frame or a social progress frame.<sup id="cite_ref-nisbet_19-
0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nisbet-19">[19]</a></sup> The
nature of these frames is to downplay or eliminate uncertainty, so when economic
and scientific promise are focused on early in the issue cycle, as has happened
with coverage of plant biotechnology and nanotechnology in the United States, the
matter in question seems more definitive and certain.<sup id="cite_ref-nisbet_19-1"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nisbet-19">[19]</a></sup>
</p><p>Sometimes, stockholders, owners, or advertising will pressure a media
organization to promote the business aspects of a scientific issue, and therefore
any uncertainty claims which may compromise the business interests are downplayed
or eliminated.<sup id="cite_ref-stocking_18-8" class="reference"><a
href="#cite_note-stocking-18">[18]</a></sup>
</p>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Applications">Applications</span><span class="mw-
Applications">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<ul><li>Uncertainty is designed into <a href="/wiki/Game" title="Game">games</a>,
most notably in <a href="/wiki/Gambling" title="Gambling">gambling</a>, where <a
href="/wiki/Probability" title="Probability">chance</a> is central to play.</li>
<li>In <a href="/wiki/Scientific_modelling" title="Scientific modelling">scientific
modelling</a>, in which the prediction of future events should be understood to
have a range of expected values</li>
<li>In <a href="/wiki/Optimization" class="mw-redirect"
title="Optimization">optimization</a>, uncertainty permits one to describe
situations where the user does not have full control on the final outcome of the
optimization procedure, see <a href="/wiki/Scenario_optimization" title="Scenario
optimization">scenario optimization</a> and <a href="/wiki/Stochastic_optimization"
title="Stochastic optimization">stochastic optimization</a>.
<ul><li>In <a href="/wiki/Meteorology" title="Meteorology">weather forecasting</a>,
it is now commonplace to include data on the degree of uncertainty in a <a
href="/wiki/Weather_forecast" class="mw-redirect" title="Weather forecast">weather
forecast</a>.</li></ul></li>
<li>Uncertainty or <a href="/wiki/Error" title="Error">error</a> is used in science
and engineering notation. Numerical values should only have to be expressed in
those digits that are physically meaningful, which are referred to as <a
href="/wiki/Significant_figures" title="Significant figures">significant
figures</a>. Uncertainty is involved in every measurement, such as measuring a
distance, a temperature, etc., the degree depending upon the instrument or
technique used to make the measurement. Similarly, uncertainty is propagated
through calculations so that the calculated value has some degree of uncertainty
depending upon the uncertainties of the measured values and the equation used in
the calculation.<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-
20">[20]</a></sup></li>
<li>In <a href="/wiki/Physics" title="Physics">physics</a>, the Heisenberg <a
href="/wiki/Uncertainty_principle" title="Uncertainty principle">uncertainty
principle</a> forms the basis of modern <a href="/wiki/Quantum_mechanics"
title="Quantum mechanics">quantum mechanics</a>.</li>
<li>In <a href="/wiki/Metrology" title="Metrology">metrology</a>, <a
href="/wiki/Measurement_uncertainty" title="Measurement uncertainty">measurement
uncertainty</a> is a central concept quantifying the dispersion one may reasonably
attribute to a measurement result. Such an uncertainty can also be referred to as a
measurement <a href="/wiki/Error" title="Error">error</a>. In daily life,
measurement uncertainty is often implicit ("He is 6 feet tall" give or take a few
inches), while for any serious use an explicit statement of the measurement
uncertainty is necessary. The expected measurement uncertainty of many <a
href="/wiki/Measuring_instruments" class="mw-redirect" title="Measuring
instruments">measuring instruments</a> (scales, oscilloscopes, force gages, rulers,
thermometers, etc.) is often stated in the manufacturers' specifications.</li>
<li>In <a href="/wiki/Engineering" title="Engineering">engineering</a>, uncertainty
can be used in the context of validation and verification of material modeling.<sup
id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-
21">[21]</a></sup></li>
<li>Uncertainty has been a common theme in art, both as a thematic device (see, for
example, the indecision of <a href="/wiki/Hamlet" title="Hamlet">Hamlet</a>), and
as a quandary for the artist (such as <a href="/wiki/Martin_Creed" title="Martin
Creed">Martin Creed</a>'s difficulty with deciding what artworks to make).</li>
<li>Uncertainty is an important factor in <a href="/wiki/Economics"
title="Economics">economics</a>. According to economist <a
href="/wiki/Frank_Knight" title="Frank Knight">Frank Knight</a>, it is different
from <a href="/wiki/Risk" title="Risk">risk</a>, where there is a specific <a
href="/wiki/Probability" title="Probability">probability</a> assigned to each
outcome (as when flipping a fair coin). Knightian uncertainty involves a situation
that has unknown probabilities.</li>
<li>Investing in <a href="/wiki/Financial_market" title="Financial
market">financial markets</a> such as the stock market involves Knightian
uncertainty when the probability of a rare but catastrophic event is
unknown.</li></ul>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Philosophy">Philosophy</span><span class="mw-
Philosophy">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a
href="/wiki/Philosophical_skepticism" title="Philosophical
skepticism">Philosophical skepticism</a></div>
<p>In <a href="/wiki/Western_philosophy" title="Western philosophy">Western
philosophy</a> the first philosopher to embrace uncertainty was <a
href="/wiki/Pyrrho" title="Pyrrho">Pyrrho</a><sup id="cite_ref-22"
class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22">[22]</a></sup> resulting in the
<a href="/wiki/Hellenistic_philosophy" title="Hellenistic philosophy">Hellenistic
philosophies</a> of <a href="/wiki/Pyrrhonism" title="Pyrrhonism">Pyrrhonism</a>
and <a href="/wiki/Academic_Skepticism" class="mw-redirect" title="Academic
Skepticism">Academic Skepticism</a>, the first schools of <a
href="/wiki/Philosophical_skepticism" title="Philosophical
skepticism">philosophical skepticism</a>. <a href="/wiki/Aporia"
title="Aporia">Aporia</a> and <a href="/wiki/Acatalepsy"
title="Acatalepsy">acatalepsy</a> represent key concepts in ancient Greek
philosophy regarding uncertainty.
</p>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="See_also">See also</span><span class="mw-
title=Uncertainty&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: See
also">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r998391716">.mw-parser-output .div-
col{margin-top:0.3em;column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .div-col-small{font-
size:90%}.mw-parser-output .div-col-rules{column-rule:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-
output .div-col dl,.mw-parser-output .div-col ol,.mw-parser-output .div-col
ul{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .div-col li,.mw-parser-output .div-col dd{page-
break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}</style><div class="div-col"
style="column-width: 20em;">
<ul><li><a href="/wiki/Applied_information_economics" title="Applied information
economics">Applied information economics</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Certainty" title="Certainty">Certainty</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Dempster%E2%80%93Shafer_theory" title="Dempster–Shafer
theory">Dempster–Shafer theory</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Further_research_is_needed" title="Further research is
needed">Further research is needed</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Fuzzy_set_theory" class="mw-redirect" title="Fuzzy set
theory">Fuzzy set theory</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Game_theory" title="Game theory">Game theory</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Information_entropy" class="mw-redirect" title="Information
entropy">Information entropy</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Interval_finite_element" title="Interval finite
element">Interval finite element</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Measurement_uncertainty" title="Measurement
uncertainty">Measurement uncertainty</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Morphological_analysis_(problem-solving)" title="Morphological
analysis (problem-solving)">Morphological analysis (problem-solving)</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty" title="Propagation of
uncertainty">Propagation of uncertainty</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Randomness" title="Randomness">Randomness</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat" title="Schrödinger's
cat">Schrödinger's cat</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus" title="Scientific consensus">Scientific
consensus</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Statistical_mechanics" title="Statistical mechanics">Statistical
mechanics</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Subjective_logic" title="Subjective logic">Subjective
logic</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Uncertainty_quantification" title="Uncertainty
quantification">Uncertainty quantification</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Uncertainty_tolerance" class="mw-redirect" title="Uncertainty
tolerance">Uncertainty tolerance</a></li>
<li><a href="/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity"
title="Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity">Volatility, uncertainty,
complexity and ambiguity</a></li></ul>
</div>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="References">References</span><span class="mw-
References">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<div class="reflist columns references-column-width" style="column-width: 30em;
list-style-type: decimal;">
<ol class="references">
<li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-
1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-
deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r999302996">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-
style:inherit}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output
.id-lock-free a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-free a{background:linear-
gradient(transparent,transparent),url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6
5/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-
limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,.mw-parser-output .citation
.cs1-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-registration
a{background:linear-
gradient(transparent,transparent),url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d
6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-
subscription a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-subscription
a{background:linear-
gradient(transparent,transparent),url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a
a/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-
subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration{color:#555}.mw-parser-output .cs1-
subscription span,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration span{border-bottom:1px
dotted;cursor:help}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:linear-
gradient(transparent,transparent),url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4
c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output
code.cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-
parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-
visible-error{font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-
maint{display:none;color:#33aa33;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-
format{font-size:95%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-
wl-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right,.mw-parser-output
.cs1-kern-wl-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-
selflink{font-weight:inherit}</style><cite id="CITEREFPeter_NorvigSebastian_Thrun"
class="citation web cs1"><a href="/wiki/Peter_Norvig" title="Peter Norvig">Peter
Norvig</a>; <a href="/wiki/Sebastian_Thrun" title="Sebastian Thrun">Sebastian
Thrun</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://www.udacity.com/wiki/cs271/unit1_notes">"Introduction to Artificial
Intelligence"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Udacity"
title="Udacity">Udacity</a></i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-
2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx
%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Udacity&rft.atitle=Introduction
+to+Artificial+Intelligence&rft.au=Peter+Norvig&rft.au=Sebastian+Thrun&
rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.udacity.com%2Fwiki%2Fcs271%2Funit1_notes&rfr_id=info
%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty" class="Z3988"></span></span>
</li>
2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="/w/index.php?
title=Template:Hubbard,_D._W._(2014)._How_to_measure_anything:_finding_the_value_of
_%22intangibles%22_in_business._Wiley.&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new"
title="Template:Hubbard, D. W. (2014). How to measure anything: finding the value
of "intangibles" in business. Wiley. (page does not
exist)">Template:Hubbard, D. W. (2014). How to measure anything: finding the value
of "intangibles" in business. Wiley.</a> </span>
</li>
3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Kabir, H. D., Khosravi, A., Hosen,
M. A., & Nahavandi, S. (2018). Neural Network-based Uncertainty Quantification:
A Survey of Methodologies and Applications. IEEE Access. Vol. 6, Pages 36218 -
36234, <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi
(identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://doi.org/10.1109%2FACCESS.2018.2836917">10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2836917</a
></span>
</li>
4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-
style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite
id="CITEREFGärdenforsSahlin1982" class="citation journal cs1">Gärdenfors, Peter;
Sahlin, Nils-Eric (1982). "Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision
making". <i>Synthese</i>. <b>53</b> (3): 361–386. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)"
class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow"
class="external text"
href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2FBF00486156">10.1007/BF00486156</a>. <a
href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID
(identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:36194904">36194904</a>.</cite><span
title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx
%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Synthese&rft.atitle=Unreliable+
probabilities%2C+risk+taking
%2C+and+decision+making&rft.volume=53&rft.issue=3&rft.pages=361-
386&rft.date=1982&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1007%2FBF00486156&rft_id=https
%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A36194904%23id-name
%3DS2CID&rft.aulast=G%C3%A4rdenfors&rft.aufirst=Peter&rft.au=Sahlin
%2C+Nils-Eric&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty"
class="Z3988"></span></span>
</li>
5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">David Sundgren and Alexander
Karlsson. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/pdf/poli/n48/n48a2.pdf">Uncertainty levels of
second-order probability</a>.
<i>Polibits</i>, 48:5–11, 2013.</span>
</li>
6">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Audun Jøsang. <i><a rel="nofollow"
class="external text" href="https://books.google.com/books?
id=nqRlDQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false">Subjective
Logic: A Formalism for Reasoning Under Uncertainty</a>.</i> Springer, Heidelberg,
2016.</span>
</li>
7">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Douglas Hubbard (2010). <i>How to
Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business</i>, 2nd ed. John
Wiley & Sons. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-
0470539399.html">Description</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://web.archive.org/web/20111122171459/http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Wile
yTitle/productCd-0470539399.html">Archived</a> 2011-11-22 at the <a
href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>, <a
rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470539399,descCd-
tableOfContents.html">contents</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130427210148/http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Wile
yTitle/productCd-0470539399,descCd-tableOfContents.html">Archived</a> 2013-04-27 at
the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>,
and <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://books.google.com/books?
hl=en&lr=&id=UFAkkGaY1x4C&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&ots=Jm_WeKJYwO&sig=
JeG1WGp5GhVHyHiUD9DWmWzLfwg#v=onepage&q&f=false">preview</a>.</span>
</li>
8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a href="/wiki/Jean-
Jacques_Laffont" title="Jean-Jacques Laffont">Jean-Jacques Laffont</a> (1989).
<i>The Economics of Uncertainty and Information</i>, MIT Press. <a rel="nofollow"
class="external text" href="http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/item/default.asp?
ttype=2&tid=7640">Description</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120125171634/http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/it
em/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=7640">Archived</a> 2012-01-25 at the <a
href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> and
chapter-preview <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://books.google.com/books/p/harvard?
id=7r484x3HVu4C&printsec=find&pg=PR5=#v=onepage&q&f=false">links</a
>.</span>
</li>
9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Jean-Jacques Laffont (1980).
<i>Essays in the Economics of Uncertainty</i>, Harvard University Press. Chapter-
preview <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://books.google.com/books/p/harvard?
id=8wwbolpmLH8C&printsec=find&pg=PR7#v=onepage&q&f=false">links</a>
.</span>
</li>
10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Robert G. Chambers and <a
href="/wiki/John_Quiggin" title="John Quiggin">John Quiggin</a> (2000).
<i>Uncertainty, Production, Choice, and Agency: The State-Contingent Approach</i>.
Cambridge. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="http://www.cambridge.org/aus/catalogue/catalogue.asp?
isbn=9780521622448">Description</a> and <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://books.google.com/books?
id=_R54pqQWvPYC&pg=PR7lpg=PR7&dq=&source=bl&ots=6oKu2mnosK&sig=
br2OLdOohXfbBB9UT5icGmj0imo&hl=en&ei=5Ow6TYq1DML6lwe61eCCBw&sa=X&oi
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alse">preview.</a> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-
data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-
redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a
href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-521-62244-1" title="Special:BookSources/0-521-
62244-1">0-521-62244-1</a></span>
</li>
11">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-
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<li id="cite_note-embo1-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-
embo1_12-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-
deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite
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href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID
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href="//pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17906667">17906667</a>.</cite><span
%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=EMBO+Rep.&rft.atitle=The+ethics
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inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite class="citation web
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bin/cuu/Info/Constants/definitions.html">"Standard Uncertainty and Relative
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cience+and+policy%3A+Boundary-
ordering+devices+and+authority&rft.volume=21&rft.issue=3&rft.pages=275-
302&rft.date=1996&rft_id=info%3Adoi
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<li id="cite_note-stocking-18"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-
stocking_18-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-stocking_18-
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2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-stocking_18-
3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-stocking_18-
4"><sup><i><b>e</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-stocking_18-
5"><sup><i><b>f</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-stocking_18-
6"><sup><i><b>g</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-stocking_18-
7"><sup><i><b>h</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-stocking_18-
8"><sup><i><b>i</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link
rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite
id="CITEREFStocking1999" class="citation book cs1">Stocking, H. (1999). <a
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S.; Rogers, C. L. (eds.). <i>Communicating Uncertainty: Media Coverage of New and
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href="https://archive.org/details/communicatingunc0000unse/page/23">23–41</a>. <a
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41&rft.pub=Lawrence+Erlbaum&rft.date=1999&rft.isbn=978-0-8058-2727-
9&rft.aulast=Stocking&rft.aufirst=H.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org
%2Fdetails%2Fcommunicatingunc0000unse%2Fpage%2F23&rfr_id=info%3Asid
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<li id="cite_note-nisbet-19"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-
nisbet_19-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-nisbet_19-
1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link
rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite
id="CITEREFNisbetScheufele2007" class="citation journal cs1">Nisbet, M.; Scheufele,
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%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Scientist&rft.atitle=The+Fu
ture+of+Public+Engagement&rft.volume=21&rft.issue=10&rft.pages=38-
44&rft.date=2007&rft.aulast=Nisbet&rft.aufirst=M.&rft.au=Scheufele
%2C+D.+A.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty"
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id="CITEREFGregoryBibboPattison2005" class="citation journal cs1">Gregory, Kent J.;
Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E. (2005). "A Standard Approach to Measurement
Uncertainties for Scientists and Engineers in Medicine". <i>Australasian Physical
and Engineering Sciences in Medicine</i>. <b>28</b> (2): 131–139. <a
href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi
href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2FBF03178705">10.1007/BF03178705</a>. <a
href="//pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16060321">16060321</a>. <a
href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID
href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:13018991">13018991</a>.</cite><span
%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Australasian+Physical+and+Engineeri
ng+Sciences+in+Medicine&rft.atitle=A+Standard+Approach+to+Measurement+Uncertain
ties+for+Scientists+and+Engineers+in+Medicine&rft.volume=28&rft.issue=2&amp
;rft.pages=131-139&rft.date=2005&rft_id=https%3A%2F
%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A13018991%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info
%3Apmid%2F16060321&rft_id=info%3Adoi
%2F10.1007%2FBF03178705&rft.aulast=Gregory&rft.aufirst=Kent+J.&rft.au=B
ibbo%2C+Giovanni&rft.au=Pattison%2C+John+E.&rfr_id=info%3Asid
%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty" class="Z3988"></span></span>
</li>
inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite class="citation web
cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://icme.hpc.msstate.edu/mediawiki/index.php/Category:Uncertainty">"Archi
ved copy"</a>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150926183351/https://icme.hpc.msstate.edu/media
wiki/index.php/Category:Uncertainty">Archived</a> from the original on 2015-09-
26<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2016-07-
29</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi
%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx
%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Archived+copy&rft_id=https%3A%2F
%2Ficme.hpc.msstate.edu%2Fmediawiki%2Findex.php%2FCategory
%3AUncertainty&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty"
class="Z3988"></span><span class="cs1-maint citation-comment">CS1 maint: archived
copy as title (<a href="/wiki/Category:CS1_maint:_archived_copy_as_title"
title="Category:CS1 maint: archived copy as title">link</a>)</span></span>
</li>
22">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><i>Pyrrho</i>, Internet
Encyclopedia of Philosophy <a rel="nofollow" class="external free"
href="https://www.iep.utm.edu/pyrrho/">https://www.iep.utm.edu/pyrrho/</a></span>
</li>
</ol></div>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Further_reading">Further reading</span><span
class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a
href="/w/index.php?title=Uncertainty&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit
section: Further reading">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-
bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-
data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite id="CITEREFLindley2006" class="citation book
cs1"><a href="/wiki/Dennis_Lindley" title="Dennis Lindley">Lindley, Dennis V.</a>
(2006-09-11). <i>Understanding Uncertainty</i>. <a href="/wiki/John_Wiley_%26_Sons"
class="mw-redirect" title="John Wiley & Sons">Wiley-Interscience</a>. <a
%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx
%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Understanding+Uncertainty&rft.pub=Wil
ey-Interscience&rft.date=2006-09-11&rft.isbn=978-0-470-04383-
7&rft.aulast=Lindley&rft.aufirst=Dennis+V.&rfr_id=info%3Asid
%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty" class="Z3988"></span></li>
<li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-
data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite id="CITEREFGilboa2009" class="citation book
cs1"><a href="/wiki/Itzhak_Gilboa" title="Itzhak Gilboa">Gilboa, Itzhak</a> (2009).
<i>Theory of Decision under Uncertainty</i>. Cambridge: <a
href="/wiki/Cambridge_University_Press" title="Cambridge University
Press">Cambridge University Press</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-
href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780521517324"
title="Special:BookSources/9780521517324"><bdi>9780521517324</bdi></a>.</cite><span
%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Theory+of+Decision+under+Uncertainty&
rft.place=Cambridge&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press&rft.date=2009&rf
t.isbn=9780521517324&rft.aulast=Gilboa&rft.aufirst=Itzhak&rfr_id=info
%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty" class="Z3988"></span></li>
data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite id="CITEREFHalpern2005" class="citation book
cs1"><a href="/wiki/Joseph_Halpern" title="Joseph Halpern">Halpern, Joseph</a>
(2005-09-01). <i>Reasoning about Uncertainty</i>. <a href="/wiki/MIT_Press"
title="MIT Press">MIT Press</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-
href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780521517324"
title="Special:BookSources/9780521517324"><bdi>9780521517324</bdi></a>.</cite><span
%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Reasoning+about+Uncertainty&rft.pub=M
IT+Press&rft.date=2005-09-
01&rft.isbn=9780521517324&rft.aulast=Halpern&rft.aufirst=Joseph&rfr
_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty" class="Z3988"></span></li>
data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite id="CITEREFSmithson1989" class="citation
book cs1"><a href="/w/index.php?
title=Michael_Smithson_(author)&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new"
title="Michael Smithson (author) (page does not exist)">Smithson, Michael</a>
(1989). <i>Ignorance and Uncertainty</i>. New York: <a href="/wiki/Springer-Verlag"
class="mw-redirect" title="Springer-Verlag">Springer-Verlag</a>. <a
%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx
%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Ignorance+and+Uncertainty&rft.place=N
ew+York&rft.pub=Springer-Verlag&rft.date=1989&rft.isbn=978-0-387-96945-
9&rft.aulast=Smithson&rft.aufirst=Michael&rfr_id=info%3Asid
%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul>
<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="External_links">External links</span><span
class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a
href="/w/index.php?title=Uncertainty&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit
section: External links">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-
bracket">]</span></span></h2>
<table role="presentation" class="mbox-small plainlinks sistersitebox"
style="background-color:#f9f9f9;border:1px solid #aaa;color:#000">
<tbody><tr>
<td class="mbox-image"><img alt=""
src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/99/Wiktionary-logo-en-
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/></td>
<td class="mbox-text plainlist">Look up <i><b><a
href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/uncertainty" class="extiw"
title="wiktionary:uncertainty">uncertainty</a></b></i> in Wiktionary, the free
dictionary.</td></tr>
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Wikiquote-logo.svg.png" decoding="async" width="34" height="40" class="noviewer"
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<td class="mbox-text plainlist">Wikiquote has quotations related to: <i><b><a
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</tbody></table>
<ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="https://www.springer.com/dal/home/generic/search/results?SGWID=1-40109-22-
24419924-0">Measurement Uncertainties in Science and Technology, Springer
2005</a></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="http://www.uncertainty.de">Proposal for a New Error Calculus</a></li>
href="http://www.uncertainty.de/p97_s.pdf">Estimation of Measurement Uncertainties
— an Alternative to the ISO Guide</a></li>
href="http://www.fasor.com/iso25/bibliography_of_uncertainty.htm">Bibliography of
Papers Regarding Measurement Uncertainty</a></li>
href="http://physics.nist.gov/Pubs/guidelines/contents.html">Guidelines for
Evaluating and Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results</a></li>
href="http://strategic.mit.edu">Strategic Engineering: Designing Systems and
Products under Uncertainty (MIT Research Group)</a></li>
href="http://understandinguncertainty.org/">Understanding Uncertainty site</a> from
Cambridge's Winton programme</li>
data:TemplateStyles:r999302996"/><cite id="CITEREFBowley2009" class="citation web
cs1">Bowley, Roger (2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text"
href="http://www.sixtysymbols.com/videos/uncertainty.htm">"∆ – Uncertainty"</a>.
<i>Sixty Symbols</i>. <a href="/wiki/Brady_Haran" title="Brady Haran">Brady
Haran</a> for the <a href="/wiki/University_of_Nottingham" title="University of
Nottingham">University of Nottingham</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-
%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Sixty+Symbols&rft.atitle=
%E2%88%86+
%E2%80%93+Uncertainty&rft.date=2009&rft.aulast=Bowley&rft.aufirst=Roger
&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sixtysymbols.com%2Fvideos
%2Funcertainty.htm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AUncertainty"
class="Z3988"></span></li></ul>
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