‫ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬

‫) ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﲢﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﻘﺎﺩﻳﺔ (‬

‫ﻋﻘﻴﻞ ﺃﳊﺴﻨﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﺪ ﺍﷲ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﲑﻣﻮﻙ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺖ ﲝﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻌﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﺻـﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﻭﻓﻬﻢ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻄﺮﺣﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻌﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ﳌﺎﺫﺍ ﺗﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻹﺑﻼﻍ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻺﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ؟ ﻭﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺭﺷﻴﺪﺓ ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻣﻨـﺎﻓﻊ ﺷﺨـﺼﻴﺔ ﻛﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ) ﺃﻱ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳـﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ( ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻭﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺋﺒﺔ ‪ absentee ownership‬ﺇﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴـﻖ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﺄﺛﺮﹰﺍ ﺑﺎﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﱴ ﻟﻮ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺻﺪﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻹﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻣﻬﻤﺎ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﻭﲤﺜﻞ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺳـﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺎﺭﺳﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻛﺄﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻬﻤﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﳜﻠﻖ ﻧﻮﻋﹰﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﻌﻘﺪ ﺑﲔ ﳎﻬﺰﻱ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ) ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ( ﻭﻣـﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺼﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺪﻩ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗـﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻓﺴﻮﻑ ﳛﺎﻭﻟﻮﻥ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﻮﻟﻴﻪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ )ﺃﻱ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻌﺒﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻹﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺻﺎﺩﻕ ( ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺭﺩ ﻓﻌـﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺳﻴﻬﺘﻢ ﲟﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺼﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺃﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪.‬ﻭﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻶﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻔﺴﺮﺓ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻣﺪﺧﻠﲔ ﺍﺗﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﰲ ﺃﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﻤﺎ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺳـﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴـﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺳﻴﻤﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻩ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ) ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ (ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻩ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪،‬ﻭﺃﺧﲑًﺍ ﺳﺘﺘﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺳـﻠﻮﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﳜﺘﺺ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﲟﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻣﺪﺧﻠﲔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﲔ ﰲ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﳘﺎ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻵﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺔ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻛﹸ ﹰﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺪﺧﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﺣﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻩ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻄـﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟـﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ‪،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ Income Smoothing Hypothesis‬ﺍﻟـﱵ ﻭﺿـﻌﻬﺎ ‪Gordon‬‬
‫]‪ [١٩٦٤: ٢٦١‬ﰲ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺔ * ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺎﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺎﻻﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ )‪ : (١‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺘـﻬﺎ ‪،‬ﺃﻱ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴـﻞ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺘﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫* ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻭﻀﻌﻴﺔ ﻷﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻔﺴﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺤﺎل ﻗﺎﺌﻡ ﻤﺒﻨﻲ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻌﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺒﻌﻴﺩﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﻀﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪١ ١‬‬
‫)ﺏ( ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ )ﺝ( ﻣـﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺁﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ )‪ : (٢‬ﺇﻥ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﻣﻊ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ )ﺃ(ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ )‪ : (٣‬ﺇﻥ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ )‪ (٢‬ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﳛﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻜﺎﻓﺂﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻳﻌﺰﺯ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﻓىﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ )‪ : (٤‬ﺇﻥ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻳﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﻣﻊ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ) ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ( ﻭﺍﺳـﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺧﻠـﻬﺎ‬
‫‪،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﺣﺎﻝ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ )‪.(٢‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﰲ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﻬﺗﺎ ) ﺃﻱ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﶈﺎﺳـﺒﻴﺔ ( ﺇﱃ )‪ (١‬ﲤﻬﻴـﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ )‪ (٢‬ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺇﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻔﺴﺮ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺗﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺗﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ ) ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ ( ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺧﻠـﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ ‪،‬ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﻓﺄﻥ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﺘﻔﻖ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻫـﺪﻑ ﻣـﺸﺘﺮﻙ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻠﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﺳﺎﺳـﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻓﺘـﺮﺍﺽ ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲣﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺮﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓـﺄﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﱃ ‪ -١:‬ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ -٢.‬ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻮﺟﻪ ﺇﱃ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ‪ ، Gordon‬ﻫﻮ ﺇﻥ ‪ Gordon‬ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑﻩ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺇﻥ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋـﻦ‬
‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻥ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻳﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﻣﻊ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﲡﻨـﺐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻪ ﺿﻤﻨﹰﺎ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ]‪:١٤٦‬‬
‫‪ ، [ Watts & Zimmerman , ١٩٧٨‬ﺇﺫ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﺔ ﻟﻔﺮﺿـﻴﺎﺕ ‪Gordon‬‬
‫ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﻥ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻛﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳـﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳـﻮﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ )ﺃﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ( ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻣﺎ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ‪ [1995:77] Fudenberg & Tirole‬ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﻠﻢ ﻳﺒﺘﻌﺪ ﻛﺜﲑﹰﺍ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ‪، Gordon‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺮﺗﺌﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻫﻮ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪.‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺘﲔ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﺘﲔ ﻫﻲ ﻛﺎﻷﰐ ‪-١:‬ﺇﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻴﻒ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ -٢.‬ﺇﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻀﻤﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺟﻴﺪﹰﺍ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺎﺗﲔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺘﲔ ﺧﻠﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻫﲔ ‪ (١) :‬ﰲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟـﻀﻌﻴﻒ‬
‫ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (٢‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﳏﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑ ﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﻥ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ‪ [١٩٦٤] Gordon‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ‪ [١٩٦٤] Fudenberg & Tirole‬ﲤﻴﻞ ﺑـﺸﻜﻞ ﻛـﺒﲑ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺇﻥ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ ﲟﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﳘﻠﺖ ﻣﻮﺍﻗـﻒ ﺍﻹﻃـﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧـﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﲟﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﺃﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺃﺧـﺮﻯ ﻛﺎﳌﻘﺮﺿـﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻔﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻬﺗﺎ ‪،‬ﻓﻔﻀ ﹰ‬
‫ﻭﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﺇﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﻮﻗﻒ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺣﺪﺩ ‪ [ ١٩٨٩ : ٧٣] Schipper‬ﻣﺪﺧﻠﲔ ﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ‪-٢ Contracting Perspective‬ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪Information Perspective‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻛﻼ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻛﺄﺳﺎﺱ ﻧﻈﺮﻱ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳـﺔ ﺍﶈﺎﺳـﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴـﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﺯﻱ ‪ Opportunistic Behavior‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌـﺎﱄ‬
‫ﺑﻘﺼﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﻭﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﳝﺜﻞ ﲢﺮﻳﻔﹰﺎ ﻣﻘﺼﻮﺩﹰﺍ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨـﺔ ﰲ‬

‫‪٢ ٢‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻛﺘﺮﺍﺙ ﺑﺄﳘﻴﺔ ﺣﻴﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﺎﻗﺸﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺒـﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺃﻣﺜـﺎﻝ‬
‫)‪ … [٢٠٠١] Van Praag , [١٩٩٦] Subramanyam , [ 1990] Holthausen‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﻢ ( ﻓﻴﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻛﺠﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻸﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳـﺔ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠـﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﻮﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻸﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪،‬ﺃﻱ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬
‫ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‪.‬ﻭﺍﻵﰐ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﳍﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻠﲔ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ‪Contracting Perspective‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺷﻴﻮﻋﺎ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ )‪ ٢٠٠٠: ٣٧٠‬ﻭ ‪،[ Belkaoui‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﲣﻠﻖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺣﻘﻮﻗﹰﺎ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻫﻨﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﺋﺘﻼﻓﹰﺎ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺭﲰﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺭﲰﻴﺔ )ﺿﻤﻨﻴﺔ ( ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻨﺸﺄ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻃﺮﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺁﻥ ﻳﺘﺨﺬ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﻷﺿﺮﺍﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﺨـﺬ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﲣﺪﻡ ﻣﺼﺎﳊﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ ‪١٩٨٣: ١٩٣] Kelly‬‬
‫[ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻳﻨﺸﺄ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻭﻣـﺔ‬
‫ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻬﺗﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺗﻪ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻌﻴﺔ ‪ Positive Theory‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺇﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﳌـﺴﺎﳘﲔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺇﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺗﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﻌﻘﻼﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒـﻞ ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻑ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻈﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺨـﺼﻴﺔ ]‪:٣٦٩‬‬
‫‪. [ Belkaoui , ٢٠٠٠‬‬
‫ﻭﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﻴﻞ – ﺍﳌﻮﻛـﻞ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗـﺮﺑﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﻛﻞ ﻟﺘﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﺳﻠﻮﻛﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﻴﻞ ﻣـﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﻛﻞ ) ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ( ﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﻴـﻞ‬
‫)ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ( ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻳﻔﺎﺋﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻬﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻣﻜﺎﺳـﺐ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣـﺎ‬
‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻋﻨﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﺍﻭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ‪،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻛﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻥ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻻ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ‪.‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻗﺴﻢ ‪ [ ٢٠٠١: ١٣] Van praag‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﺇﱃ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ) ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ (‪-٢‬ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ )ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ (‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﻛﹸ ﹰﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟـﺼﺮﳛﺔ ) ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷـﺮﺓ (‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ ) ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ( ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻷﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ) ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ( ‪Explicit Contracts‬‬
‫ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳـﺔ ﻭﺷـﺮﻭﻁ ﻣـﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺄﰐ‪:‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪Bonus Plans‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ]‪ [ Kelly ,١٩٨٣ :١٩٤‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺳـﻌﻲ‬
‫ﻛ ﹰﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﺇﺫ ﲡﻤﻊ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻫﻮ ﲢـﺴﲔ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﳒﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪،‬ﻓﺒﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻥ ﺍﳌﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﻲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺳﺐ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ )ﺃﻭ ﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ( ﺇﻻ ﺇﻬﻧﺎ ﻗﺪ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺷﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠـﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺪﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺗﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺳﻠﺒﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳـﺔ‬

‫‪٣ ٣‬‬
‫ﻳﺄﰐ ﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺑﺘﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺑﺘﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﻘﺼﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺃﺷﺎﺭ ‪" [ ١٩٧٨ : ٢٣٠] Watts& Zimmerman‬‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﻳﺘﺨﺬﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺛﺮﻭﻬﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟـﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳـﻮﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭﻳﺔ " ‪.‬‬
‫ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻓﻴﻖ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ) ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻋﻨﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟـﻸﺩﺍﺀ ( ﰲ‬
‫ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﻛﺪ ‪ [ ٢٠٠١ :١٣] Van Praag‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﻪ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻣـﺼﻠﺤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ‪.‬ﺇﺫ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪.‬ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﺀﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ ﻋـﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﰲ ﺳﻌﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺇﻥ ﺃﺛﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﻛﻤﺤﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻃﺮﻕ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ‬
‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺑﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪ Hypothesis Bonus‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲣﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗـﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﻈـﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ )‪ ، [ Abdel - khalik et al , ١٩٨٧ : ٣٣‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺣﺪﺩ ‪[ ١٩٨٦ :٢١٢] Watts & Zimmerman‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﰐ ‪-:‬‬
‫" ﺇﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺇﻥ ﳜﺘﺎﺭﻭﺍ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺎﻗﻞ ﺍﻹﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ " ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺇﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺭﺑﻄﺖ ﺑﲔ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳـﱯ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬ﺃﻱ ﺇﻥ ﳎﺮﺩ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺎﻗﻞ ﺍﻹﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺣﺪﺩﺕ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺘﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﺑﺘﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺇﺫﹰﺍ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺗﺮﻓﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺗﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺮﺓ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﺃﻱ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﲝﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺘﻌﻈـﻴﻢ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫـﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺇﻥ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ‪Watts & Zimmerman‬‬
‫ﱂ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪،‬ﻓﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻥ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺧﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺘﻤﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺇﻥ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻛﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ )‪ ( 1‬ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺃﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﳋﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﻌﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ )‪ Lower level ( LL‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻻﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻛﻨـﺴﺒﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ) ﺃﻭ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ( ﺣﱴ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ )‪ Higher level ( HL‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻻﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻋﻨﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻻ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﲟﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺇﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻸﺩﺍﺀ ﻳﻔﺮﺽ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻌﻜﺴﻪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺎﻥ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ) ﺿﻤﻦ ﻇﺮﻭﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ( ﻗﺪ ﻳﺄﰐ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺣﺪﺛﺎ ﻃﺎﺭﺋﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻼ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ )‪ ( LL‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪.‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧ ﹰ‬
‫ﺃﺩﱏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺮﻏﻮﺏ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻣﺎ ‪ [1985: 381] Healy‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺣﺪﺩ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻷﰐ ‪) :‬ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ )‪. ( ١‬ﻓﻌﻨـﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻼ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ )‪ ( LL‬ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻌﺪﻡ ﻭﺟـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧ ﹰ‬
‫ﻼ‬
‫ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺗﺘﺴﻠﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧ ﹰ‬

‫‪٤ ٤‬‬
 ‫ﺃﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﻀﻲ ﻟﺨﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل )‪:(1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﻭﺍﻓﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫‪LL‬‬ ‫‪HL‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬

‫ﻼ ﻋﻦ ‪[2001:14] Van praag‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ [1996] Scott :‬ﻧﻘ ﹰ‬
‫ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ )‪ ( HL‬ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠـﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺣﱴ ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ )‪ ( HL‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻟﻦ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻱ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗﺘـﺴﻠﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ )ﺑﲔ ‪ LL‬ﻭ ‪ (HL‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﲤﻴـﻞ‬
‫ﻏﺎﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﺣﱴ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ) ‪. ( HL‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺳﻌﻲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ‪ [ ١٩٨٥] Healy‬ﺣﺪﺩ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ﺍﻧﻮ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﱏ )‪ ( LL‬ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺧﻄـﺔ ﺍﳊـﻮﺍﻓﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺇﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﱂ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ) ﻛﺎﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺛﻘﺔ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ( ﻭﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻏـﲑ‬
‫ﻼ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬
‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧ ﹰ‬
‫ﺑﺎﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻣﺎ ‪ [ ١٩٨٧ : ٣٦٤]Moses‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺃﺷﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﺩﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻛﱪ ﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺑﺮﺭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ ﺑﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻻﻥ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺩﺧﻞ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﻓﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻛﺄﺳﺎﺱ ﻻﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‬
‫‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻛﺴﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﺑﺘﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻖ) ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ‪ ( Healy‬ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺳـﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﻻﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺁﻥ ﺗﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﻓﻘﻂ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻛﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺧـﺬ ﺑﺎﳊـﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺗـﺄﺛﲑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣـﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ‪Debt Covenants‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺪ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿـﺔ ﺑﻌـﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﻴـﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻛﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺔ ﳌﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻹﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻳﻔﺎﺋﻴﺔ ‪ Solvency‬ﺃﻭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻛﺎﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ‪.‬ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻣﻦ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﺪ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻹﻳﻔـﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗـﺎ ]‪, ٢٠٠١ :١٦‬‬

‫‪٥ ٥‬‬
‫‪ .[ Van Praag‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﳌﻘﻴـﺪﺓ‬
‫ﳊﺮﻳﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪﻫﺎ ﰲ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﲡﺎﻭﺯ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺃﻛﺪ ‪ [ ١٩٩٠ :١٢٦] Begley‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﰐ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻓﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟـﺸﺮﻭﻁ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﻴﺪﺓ ﳊﺮﻳﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﲡﻨﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﲡﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻘـﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤـﺎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻱ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻮﻗﻴﻊ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻻﻥ ﲡﺎﻭﺯ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﻗﺪ ﳛﺮﻣﻬﺎ ﻣـﻦ ﺇﻋـﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺁﻭ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺿﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ‪ [١٩٨٦ :٢١٦) Watts & Zimmerman‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺣﺪﺩﺍ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻻﰐ ‪ -:‬ﺃﻥ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻓﻌﺔ * )ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ‪/‬ﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ ( ﺍﻛﱪ ﲤﻴﻞ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺎﻗﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ " ‪.‬ﻓﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﲡﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﶈـﺪﺩﺓ ﰲ‬
‫ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺛﺄﺭ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﻪ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺽ ‪،‬ﺁﺫ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺭﻏﺒﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ‬
‫ﺧﻠﻖ ﺍﻧﻄﺒﺎﻉ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻳﻔﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺍﺵ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺽ ‪.‬ﻭﻳﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﰲ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ ) ﻛﺎﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳـﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﺍﻷﺧـﺮﻯ ( ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧـﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ‪ [1986] Watts& Zimmerman‬ﱂ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﻧﺔ ﺑﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟـﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺘﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬
‫)ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﻧﺔ ﺑﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﻧﺔ ﺑﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻮﻓﺮﻫﺎ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻭﻛﻠـﻒ ﺍﻗﺘـﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻗـﻞ ]‪:162‬‬
‫‪. [ Herrmann & Inoue 1996,‬‬
‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ‪ [1992] EI - khouri & Hmedat‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻓﻌﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ‪/‬ﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ( ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺭﺃﺱ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻭﺗﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺛﺒﺘﻮﺍ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﻭﺗﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ‪،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺗﻮﺻـﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻓﻌﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﰲ ﺳﻌﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﺑﺘﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ‪ [1997] Karmon & Lubwama‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺍﺛﺒﺘﺎ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻭﺟﺪﺍ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﻭﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺻﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺮﺍﻓﻌﺔ ﲤﻴﻞ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻥ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺩﺍﻓﻊ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﺭﻏﺒـﺔ ﻣﻨـﻬﺎ ﰲ‬
‫ﲡﻨﺐ ﲡﺎﻭﺯ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ‪Taxes‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺪ ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛـﺒﲑ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﺒﲏ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ]‪ ، [Kelly,1983:202‬ﻓﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊـﺴﺒﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻟﻠﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﲣﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠـﻦ‬
‫ﺑﻘﺼﺪ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺇﻇﻬﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺇﻇﻬﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻏﲑ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻘﻠﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺰﻳـﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺷﻚ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﲝﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﺛﻮ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻜﻠﻔـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺁﻭ ﺃﺩﺍﺭﻬﺗﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫*‬
‫ﻴﻘﺼﺩ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻓﻌﺔ ‪ leverage rate‬ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺽ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺓ ﻟﻌﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟـﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﻔﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪٦ ٦‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌـﲎ ﻓـﺄﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺑﻴﺒﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﲢﻔﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﺧﺘﱪ ‪ [1996] Herrmann & Inoue‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ٥٢٤‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺗﻐﲑﺍ ﰲ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﺛﺎﺭ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ ١٩٩٢-١٩٨٦‬ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻸﺩﺍﺀ ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺧﻠﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜـﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺣﺪﺩﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻵﰐ ‪) :‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ )‪. (٢‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ )‪(٢‬‬
‫ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺝ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺃ‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺭﺒﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪(1996) Herrmann & Inoue‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﺍﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ )‪ (N‬ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠـﻦ‬ ‫ﺃ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻸﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﳍﺪﻑ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟـﺬﺍ ﻓﻤـﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗـﻊ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ) ‪ ( N‬ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠـﻦ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﻀﺔ ﲤﺎﻣﺎ ﻟﻠﻬﺪﻑ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﺪﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺜﲑ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﲝﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﲣﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻓﻔﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺮﻏﺒﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲢـﺴﲔ‬ ‫ﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺩﱏ ﺣﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻨﻌﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﱯ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬
‫ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪ [1996] Herrmann & Inoue‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﱯ ﰲ ﺳـﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﳜﺘﻠـﻒ ﺗﺒﻌـﺎ‬
‫ﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺸﲑ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﻢ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗـﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ )ﺃ( ﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﺪﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﲢﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺻـﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ )ﺏ( ﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﺍﻩ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺮﺍﺽ‬
‫ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺎ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ )ﺝ( ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﻣﻨـﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻠﻴـﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺩﱐ ﺣﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﱯ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﺩﺭﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ‪Political Costs‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻠﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﳎﺎﻣﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔـﺔ‬
‫ﻛﻨﻘﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺻﻮﺭﺍ ﻭﺇﺷﻜﺎﻻ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻤﺜـﻞ‬
‫ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﻃﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺃﻭ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺃﻭ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺿـﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳـﺔ ﺍﳌـﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﺪﻯ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺑﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺎﻳﻜﺮﻭﺳﻮﻓﺖ‬
‫‪ Microsoft‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺮﺿﺖ ﻟﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻭﺻﻠﺖ ﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺑﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺪﻋﻮﻯ ﳐﺎﻟﻔﺔ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜـﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳـﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺤـﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺧﻞ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻱ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺷﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟـﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫]‪ [Watts & Zimmerman : 1978:233‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﲡﻨﺒﺎ ﻟﻠﻜﻠﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻭﺍﳊﺼﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺳﻴﻄﺮﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺃﻛﺪ ‪ [1979 : 145] Hagerman & Zmijewski‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﺣﺠﻤﹰﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﹰﺍ ﺃﻭ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺭﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺳﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ‬
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‫ﻟﺬﺍ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻇﻬﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﲡﻨﺒـﺎ ﻟﻠـﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻠﻒ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑ ﺁﻭ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤـﺪ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪ Capital Intensive‬ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻴﺪﻭﻱ ‪ . Labor Intensive‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺎﻥ‬
‫ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻻﺭﺗﺎﺡ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻱ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﺑﻴﻀﺎ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﹰﺍ ﻟﻠﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺍﻧﻄﺒـﺎﻉ ﻟـﺪﻯ ﻣـﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻲ ﺑﺎﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺩﱐ ﺣﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺄﰐ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﺑﺮﺩﻭﺩ ﺃﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳـﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻴﻊ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻭﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺩﺍﻓﻌﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺪﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﻌـﻞ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﻗﺒـﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ]‪ . [Watts & Zimmerman,1986:223‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﺈﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻳـﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﳚﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﻗـﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻨﺪ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳚﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟـﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻴﺎﺩﻱ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ﺍﳌﻬﺘﻤﲔ ﺑﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻗﺮﻭﺿﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺍﳌﻬـﺘﻤﲔ‬
‫ﺑﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﻇﺎﺋﻔﻬﻢ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ]‪. [Godfrey & Jones , 1999 :234‬‬
‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﺛﺒﺖ ‪ [1996] Herrmann & Inoue‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟـﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻛﻤﺆﺷـﺮ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺪﺩﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻷﰐ‪ :‬ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﻣﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ )‪:(٢‬‬
‫) ﺃ ( ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻳﻔﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﺪﺧﻠﻬﺎ )‪ (N‬ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫) ﺏ ( ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺩﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ) ‪ (N‬ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺩﺭﺍﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠـﻦ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻳﻔﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫)ﺝ( ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺩﱐ ﺣﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ ﻻﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲣﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ‬
‫ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﳑﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻔﺴﺮ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻩ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺮﻏﺒﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺇﺛـﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺒﺎﻩ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟﻬﺰﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻫﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ ﲤﻴـﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻠﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ )ﺃ( ﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻨـﺪ‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺘﲔ )ﺏ( ﻭ )ﺝ( ﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻭﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴـﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻻﻧﻌﺪﺍﻡ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻭﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻗـﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺩﱏ ﺣﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ ﺁﻭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺁﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ ‪Implicit Contracts‬‬
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‫ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﻬﺑﺎ ﰲ ﺑﻌـﺾ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻹﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ )ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ( ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺃﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ﺃﻗﻮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻪ ﺑـﺎﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟـﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ ‪[Van‬‬
‫]‪ . Praag , 2001 :13‬ﻭﺁﻻﰐ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪Employment Contracts‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺪ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﻣﻜﺎﻓﺄﻬﺗﻢ ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻭﲢﺪﻳـﺪﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪[Horwitz & Shabahang ,‬‬
‫]‪ . 1971 : 245‬ﺇﺫ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣـﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺭﲝﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺃﻭﺿﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﻭﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﰲ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬
‫*‬
‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﺛﺒﺖ ‪ [1992] Christofids & Oswald‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻫﻲ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫‪ .‬ﻭﳑﺎ ﻻﺷﻚ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠـﻦ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻔﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺁﻭ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬
‫ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻡ ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ‪ [1986] Liberty & Zimmerman‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺍﺛﺒﺘﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﳝﻴﻠﻮﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻬﻢ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ٢٥‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺑﲔ ‪ ١٩٨١-١٩٦٨‬ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒـﺪﺍﺋﻞ‬
‫ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺩﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ .‬ﻭﺧﻠﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫـﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻣﺆﺩﺍﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﳌﻄﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻣﻮﻗﻔﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﻭﻣﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ‪ [1987:263] Moses‬ﻓﲑﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳝﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣـﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺟﻮﻫﺮﻳﺔ ﻣﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻮﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺁﻭ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺛﺄﺭ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺎﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺡ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺘﺨﻔﻴﺾ ﺃﺟـﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﺪﻡ ﳏﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻇﺎﺋﻔﻬﻢ ﺃﻭ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﻬﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﻃﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﳌﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﲡﺎﻩ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻫﲔ ]‪ (١) : [Godfrey & Jones , 1999 : 234‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﺪﺧﻠـﻬﺎ ﲤﻴـﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺣﺪﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳉﻮﺭ ﻭﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﻃﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪ (٢) .‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻳﻘـﻞ ﻋـﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﺪﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺮﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺡ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﳑﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻔﺴﺮ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻩ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺣﺪﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺣﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺡ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺘﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻬﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺡ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻴﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻜﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻴﺤﺔ( ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻴﺔ)ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ( ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬ ‫*‬

‫ﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﻋﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﻜﺎﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻠﺘﺯﻡ ﺒﻤﻭﺠﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﻜﻴل ﺒﺭﻋﺎﻴﺔ ﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻜل ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻬﺎ ﻴﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺌﺘﻼﻑ ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻋﻼﻗـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻜﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺜل ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺩﺭﺍﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﻴﻥ ‪،‬ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﻀﺭﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻼﻗـﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﻘﻼ ﻋﻥ ‪.(1999) Godfrey & Jones‬‬ ‫*‬

‫‪٩ ٩‬‬
 ‫ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪Executive Change‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﺃﻛﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺃﻣﺜﺎﻝ ‪ [1964:261] Gordon‬ﻭ ‪ [1995:77] Fudenberg & Tirole‬ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑﻫﻢ ﻟـﺴﻠﻮﻙ‬
‫ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺘﺄﻣﲔ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺀﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﳜﻠﻖ ﺍﻟـﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﻟـﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄـﺮﻕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻫﻮ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺇﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﺍﻧﻄﺒﺎﻉ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﳘﲔ‬
‫ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺗﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺣﺎﳍﺎ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻛﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻌﻬﻢ ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺁﻥ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻭﺻﻮﳍﺎ ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺗﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻮﺻﻮﳍﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺍﻧﻄﺒﺎﻉ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ ﻭﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺁﻥ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺫﺍ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻭﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﻼﻣﻬﺎ ﳌﻬﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﺧﺘﱪ ‪ [1988] Elliot & Shaw‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬
‫‪ .‬ﻭﺧﻠﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﻄﺐ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺟﻮﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻳﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺗﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺼـﺼﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺷﻄﺐ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺇﻋﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻭﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﻳﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺍﻧﻄﺒﺎﻉ ﺳﻴﺊ ﻋـﻦ‬
‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﻡ ﻓﺄﻥ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﺖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﻧﻮﻋﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻭﱂ ﺗﺜﺒﺖ ﰲ ﻣﻌﻈﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﰲ ﺃﺩﺍﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﺁﻣﺎ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻀﻌﻒ ﺍﻟﻮﺳـﺎﺋﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ]‪ . [Van praag ,2001:19‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳋﺼﻮﺹ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲡﺎﻫﻠﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺩﻋﺎﺋﻬﺎ ﻳﻨﺒﻊ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺿـﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈـﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ‬
‫ﻓﺎﻥ ﺳﻠﻮﻛﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻬﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ * ‪Dividends‬‬
‫ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻬﻧﺎ ﲢﻤﻞ ﺣﻘﻮﻗﹰﺎ ﳊﺎﻣﻠﻬﺎ ﳛﺼﻞ ﲟﻮﺟﺒﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﲟﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ‪ .‬ﻭﳑﺎ ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺴﻌﻰ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻩ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﲟﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻉ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﺁﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻋﺎﻣﻼ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺍ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺄﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺁﻥ ﻳﺪﻋﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻛﺒﲑ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﳌﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻹﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺁﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺮ ﻷﺭﻗـﺎﻡ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﻳﺪﻋﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻛﱪ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﳌﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﳑﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ]‪. [Beidleman , 1973 :654‬‬
‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﺷﺮ ‪ [1990 : 97] Healy & Palepu‬ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ‬
‫ﺩﻋﻢ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﳌﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻗﺪ ﳛﺼﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺄﰐ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﶈﻠﻠﲔ ﺍﳌـﺎﻟﻴﲔ ﻭﺍﳌـﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﲟﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳـﻨﻌﻜﺲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﳌﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺳﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻣﺎ ‪ ** [1996] Kasanen et al‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﱪﻭﺍ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ٣٧‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺑﲔ ‪ ، ١٩٨٩-١٩٧٠‬ﻭﺃﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻩ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ‪ .‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻫﻮﻳﺪﻱ )‪ (1998‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺍﺛﺒﺖ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻹﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻉ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺩﺭﺍﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳـﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫* ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻮﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﺧﺮﻯ ﻛﺎﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ … ﺍﱁ ‪.‬‬
‫** ﻧﻘﻼ ﻋﻦ ‪[2001: 20] Van Praag‬‬

‫‪١٠ ١٠‬‬
 ‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻧﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻉ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺗﻮﺯﻳـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻫﺮﻯ ﻛﻤﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺧﻄﻂ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﻠﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒـﺎﺭﻩ ﺩﺍﻓﻌـﹰﺎ‬
‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﹰﺎ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ‪Financial Analyst Forecasts‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻠﲔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﲔ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﳌﺘﺨﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎﺹ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﳝﺘﻠﻜـﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﶈﻠﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘـﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ( ﳍﺎ ﺑﻘﺼﺪ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻔﺴﺮ ﺍﶈﻠﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﻮﻥ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻫﻢ ﻟﻼﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺁﻭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﻬﺗﻢ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺄﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﻛﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﻬﺗﻢ ﳑﺎ ﻳﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺳﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﺳـﻬﻢ ﺍﻟـﺸﺮﻛﺔ ]‪,1973:654‬‬
‫‪ ، [Beidleman‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﰲ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠـﺔ ﻋـﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺮ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺪﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻵﻣـﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﻏﺎﱃ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﳐـﺎﻃﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻗﻞ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻟﻠﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺃﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ‪Lev & Kunitzky‬‬
‫]‪ . [2000] Michelson et al , [1974‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻼﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ ﻛﻼ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺘﲔ ﺇﱃ ﺁﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﻘﻠﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﺷـﺎﺭ ‪[2001:21] Van‬‬
‫‪ Praag‬ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻬﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﺣﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﻪ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻷﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﲰﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﺪﻑ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ( ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺇﻇﻬـﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﳑﻬﺪ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺁﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺿـﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﻩ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺛﻘﺔ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﰲ ﺣـﲔ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺆﺷﺮ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﻩ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻭﺛﻘﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻗﻞ ] ‪[Gernon & Meek 2001:26‬‬
‫‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﻼﺻﺔ ﳌﺎ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﺋﺘﻼﻑ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻜﻢ ﺃﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻘـﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ )ﺍﻟﻮﻛﻴﻞ ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﻮﻛﻞ( ﻛﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻼﻗـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻠﺘﺰﻡ ﲟﻮﺟﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﻴﻞ ) ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ( ﺑﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﻭﺭﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﳌﻮﻛﻞ ) ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ( ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺭﺩ ﻓﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺃﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻬﺮﺏ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻳﻔﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﰲ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺗﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳـﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺴﻠﻮﻛﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﻭﻣﺎ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﻵﺛـﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺳﻠﻮﻛﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻬﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻳﻔﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﰲ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﻓﺄﻥ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﻳﻔﺴﺮ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻩ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﺯﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻬﺮﺏ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻹﻳﻔـﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗـﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻌﻞ ﻟﻠﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻛﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻸﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻟﻶﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪Information Perspective‬‬
‫ﻳﺮﻯ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﻮﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻟﻮ ﺍﺳﺘﻄﺎﻋﺖ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﲢﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺗﻪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺳﻠﻴﻢ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ ﻳﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟـ ‪FASB‬ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳـﻨﺺ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﳌﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻟﻮ ﲤﻜﻨﺖ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﲡﻌﻞ ﻓﺮﻗﹰﺎ ﰲ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺁﻭ ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺗﻨﺒﺆﺍﺗـﻪ ‪Delaney et al , .‬‬
‫] ‪ 1986:18‬ﺇﺫ ﻳﺮﻛﺰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﲢﺴﲔ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻓﺄﻥ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴـﺪ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﻮﺳـﻴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠـﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﻛﺪﻩ ‪ (1976:110) Barnea et al‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺃﺷﺎﺭﻭﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆﻳـﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﻳﻨﻘﻠﻮﻥ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ‪..‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻠﻖ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻳﺄﰐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺋﻤـﺔ ﻋـﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺑـﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ]‪ [Holthausen ، ١٩٩٠ : ٢٠٨‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻼﺣﻆ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ )ﺃﺩﱏ ( ﳑﺎ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ) ﺍﻫﻮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ( ﻓﺄﻬﻧـﺎ ﺳـﻮﻑ ﲣﺘـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄـﺮﻕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺎﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﻛﻔﺆ * ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺗﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﻭﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺎﺡ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺃﻭﻻ ﺑﺄﻭﻝ ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺄﺗﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻋﻲ ﻛﺎﻑ ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ Sophisticated Investors‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﻢ ﺃﺩﺭﺍﻙ‬
‫ﺍﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ‪ .‬ﺑﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻄﺎﻋﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺄﻧﻔﺴﻬﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺳﻄﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﶈﻠﻠﲔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﲔ ﻓﻬـﻢ‬
‫ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﺮﻕ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻳﺴﻬﻞ ﻧﻘﻞ ﳏﺘﻮﺍﻫﺎ ﺇﱃ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ ﻓﺈﻬﻧـﺎ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻋﺎﻥ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﻟﺘﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻌﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺃﻱ ﻏـﲑ ﺍﻟـﻀﻠﻴﻌﲔ ) ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺿـﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘـﺪﺭﺍﺕ ( ‪Naïve‬‬
‫‪ Investor‬ﻟﻔﻬﻢ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﻜﺴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻧﻪ ﻻ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺧـﺪﺍﻉ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺙ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﺎﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻻ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺧﺪﺍﻉ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ )ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﳑﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﰲ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ‬
‫( ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺍﻧﻄﺒﺎﻉ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻸﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆﻳﺔ ﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠـﻦ ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺃﺷﺎﺭ ‪ [ ١٩٩٦ :٢٥١] Subrmanyam‬ﻏﺎﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻌﻮﻥ ﺁﻥ ﳛﺴﻨﻮﺍ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﻣـﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ‬
‫ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﻮﺀ ﺑﺎﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺇﻏﻼﻕ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳊﺪﺙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﺸﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻓﺘﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟـﻴﻌﻜﺲ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﳋﻠﻖ ﺍﻧﻄﺒﺎﻉ ﻟﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻗﻌـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﳏﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ) ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ( ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻛﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻞ ) ﺃﻭ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ( ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺪﻡ ) ] ‪1990:380‬‬
‫‪ Demski & Sappington‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﻔﺮﺓ ”‪ “ Blocked Communication‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﺷﺎﺭﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﳛﺼﻠﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻛﱪ ﰲ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺪﺍ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟـﺮﺃﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻓﻜـﺮﻩ ﺃﺳﺎﺳـﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻤﺎ ﲤﺘﻠﻜﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺻﺮﻳﺢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﳛـﻀﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﰲ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﻢ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ ﻏـﲑ‬

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‫ﻴﻘﺼﺩ ﺒﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺒﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔـﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭﻟﺔ ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻣﻮﺛﻮﻗﺔ ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﲔ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘـﻖ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺻﺤﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ .‬ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﻓﺄﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﺿﻤﻨﻴﺔ ) ﻏﲑ ﺻـﺮﳛﺔ ( ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻟﻸﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻏﺎﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﹰﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺮﻯ ‪ Demski & Sappington‬ﺁﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﳛﺜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ‬
‫ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺮﻏﺒﺘﻬﻢ ﰲ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻧﻄﺒﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻘﺒﲔ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﺎ‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﻳﺪ ‪ [1988:225] Dey‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺃﺷﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻃﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺑﲔ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳘﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻴﺔ ﻭﻳﻨﺸﺄ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﲢﺪﺙ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺨﻄﻂ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻏﲑ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﲤﺮ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺗﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻯ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺙ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﻄﻂ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻨﺸﺄ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﲔ ﰲ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺗﺼﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻘﺒﲔ ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺋﻊ ﰲ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ) ﺃﻱ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ( ﻫـﻮ‬
‫ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻓﻘﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﺸﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﻳﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻦ ﻓﻘﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﻛﺸﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ .‬ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﻓﻘﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﻛﺸﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ‪ Trade-off‬ﺑﲔ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﳘﺎ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠـﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺄﺣﺪﳘﺎ ﻳﻘﺘﻀﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺤﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳉﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻷﺧﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﻛﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻳﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﳝﻜﻨـﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﲢﺴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻓـﺼﺎﺡ ) & ‪Reverte‬‬
‫]‪. Strong, 2001: 7‬‬
‫ﻭﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺁﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺁﻥ ﳚﻨﺐ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻟﻮ‬
‫ﻭﺻﻠﺖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻛﺸﻒ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﲣﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺳﻠﺒﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺎﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﳚﻨﺐ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻮﻳﺶ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﻗﻔﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﳍﻢ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﳑﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﰲ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪﺓ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﳑﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻳﺴﺘﺒﻌﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻓﻬﻮ ﻳﺮﻛﺰ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺻـﻴﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﳑﻜﻨﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣـﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺈﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﺼﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻳﻘﻮﻝ )‪ 2000] *Leuz et al‬ﺍﻵﰐ‪:‬‬
‫" ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺬﺑﺬﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﻨﺼﻔﺔ ﺁﻭ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴـﺔ ﻋـﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ " ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻻ ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻛﺄﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﳎﺮﺩﺓ ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺑﻘﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﲔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒـﺆ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﲝﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻓـﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻇﻬﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﻮﻗﻌـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﱘ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﺼﻔﺔ ﻷﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻘﺪﺭﻩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳـﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺭﻛﺰﺕ ﲝﻮﺙ ﺍﶈﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﰐ ‪ Information Content‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺁﻥ ﺗـﻨﻌﻜﺲ‬
‫ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﲝﻮﺙ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﺃﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﻓﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﳏﺘﻮﺍﻫـﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺃﺳـﻌﺎﺭ‬

‫* ﻧﻘﻼ ﻋﻦ ) ‪[ 2001 : 4 ] Reverte & Strong‬‬

‫‪١٣ ١٣‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ) ]‪ …[2 001]Lewis & Chaney [1998] Chaney et al‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ( ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳـﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻭﺟﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻪ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺧﺪﺍﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ) ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ( ﻓـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﶈﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﰐ ﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻋﻲ ﺗﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻥ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻪ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﱂ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺭﲝﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺭﲝﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻜﺴﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺭﲝﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﺻـﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻼ ﻭﺍﺿﺤﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﳏﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﰐ ﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺩﻟﻴ ﹰ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﻮﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨـﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻇﻞ‬
‫ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ) ﳏﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ( ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻹﺣﺪﺍﺙ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻛﺒﲑ ﰲ ﺇﻇﻬﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺗﻨﺒﺆﻳﺔ ﻟﻸﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘـﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﺿﻤﻨﻴﺔ ) ﻏﲑ ﻣﻌﻠﻨﺔ( ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﰲ ﺭﲝﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﺠﻨﺐ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻓﺼﺎﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺳﻠﱯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺿـﻊ ﺍﻟـﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪Management Behavior and the Level of Targeted‬‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻬﺪ ‪.‬‬
‫‪Smoothed Income‬‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻣـﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﰲ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻗﺪ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫـﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﻴـﻞ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﺧﺮﻯ ﻗﺪ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻠﻖ‬
‫ﻓﺎﻥ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻩ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻭﺍﻥ ﻳﻨﺸﺄ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻓﻌﻞ ﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ‬
‫ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺘﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﺩﻩ & ‪(1981:146 ] Zmijewski‬‬
‫‪. Hagerman‬ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﻝ ‪:‬‬
‫" ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﺗﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﲢﻠﻴـﻞ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻌﻬـﺎ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﻬﺗـﺎ‬
‫ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ "‬
‫ﻓﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﻻ ﳛﺪﺙ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺎ ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﳉﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﻭﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﺎ ﻣﺘﺎﺡ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﰲ ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ‪ .‬ﺇﺫ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ) ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ( ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺑﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻛﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰﻫﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺃﻱ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ … ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺗﺄﺳﻴﺴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺎﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻛﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ )‪ (٣‬ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ‪ t‬ﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠـﺪﺧﻞ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺇﻣﺎ ‪ t-k‬ﻓﻴﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭﺃﻱ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺃﺩﱏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ‪ t k‬ﺗﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻻ ﺗﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ‪ ، t‬ﺇﻣﺎ ‪ E MIN، E MAX‬ﻓﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﻠـﻰ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﱏ ﻟﻠـﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺽ ‪ [٢٠٠١ :٣٢] Van Praag‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﶈﺼﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺗﺘﺤـﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺿـﻮﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ‬

‫‪١٤ ١٤‬‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ) ‪:( ٣‬ﺃﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ‬

‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﺏ‬ ‫ﺝ‬

‫‪E MIN‬‬ ‫‪t -K‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪E Max‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪[ ٢٠٠١ :٣٣] van Praag :‬‬

‫ﻓﻘﺪ ﺣﺪﺩ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻷﰐ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ‪ t –k‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻻ ﺗﻜﻔـﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ‪ t‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳋﻠﻖ ﺗﺮﺍﺧﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻨـﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﲔ ‪ ، t -k ، t‬ﺃﻱ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﺣـﱴ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﻏﺎﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ‪ ، t‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ ‪ -‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ‪ t‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ‪ . t‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ‬
‫ﺧﻠﻖ ﺗﺮﺍﺧﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺃﳕﻮﺫﺝ‪ [١٩٨٥] Healy‬ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘـﺔ ﺑـﺄﺛﺮ ﺧﻄـﻂ‬
‫ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ [١٩٩٦] Herrmann & Inoue‬ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ‪ Van Praag‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺮﻏﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﱂ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺩﺍﻓﻊ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺖ ﺑﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠـﻰ ﻟﻠﺤـﻮﺍﻓﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺃﳕﻮﺫﺝ‪ [١٩٨٥] Healy‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻻ ﲢﺼﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﻌﺪﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺃﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳝﺜﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺃﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ . [١٩٩٦] Herrmann & Inoue‬ﻭﰲ ﻛﻼ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺟﲔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋـﻦ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﻮﻯ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻪ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﳋﻠﻖ ﺗﺮﺍﺧﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻔﻖ ﻣـﻊ ﻓﺮﺿـﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪ [ ٢٠٠١)Van Praag‬ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺃﻟﻴﻪ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ‪ [ ٢٠٠١] Van Praag‬ﻗﺪ ﺃﺷﺎﺭﺕ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺩﺧﻼ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﻮﻯ‬
‫‪ t-k‬ﺃﻱ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﳍﺎ ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﺴﺐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺗﺮﺍﺧﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌـﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻻ ﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﱃ ﻣﱪﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺨﻠﻖ ﺗﺮﺍﺧﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻻ ﻳﱪﺭ ﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬
‫ﻻﻥ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﺍﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻪ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺛﺎﺭ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺎﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻴﻊ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﻢ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭﺍﻷﻃـﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧـﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺫﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺼﻰ ﺣﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﺎ ﻣﺘﺎﺡ ﺃﻣﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺗﺮﺍﺧﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳋﻼﺻﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪١٥ ١٥‬‬
 ‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﻟﻸﺩﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﹰﺍ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻭﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻵﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳـﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻔـﺴﺮﺓ‬
‫ﻓﺄﻣـﺎ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻓﻴﻔـﺴﺮ‬.‫ ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﻘﺪ ﻇﻬﺮ ﻣﺪﺧﻠﲔ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻴﲔ ﰲ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳘﺎ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬. ‫ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻭﻣﺔ ﻬﺗﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻳﻔﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﻳﺮﻛﺰ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳـﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ ﻭﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺳﻠﻮﻛﹰﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﺯﻳﹰﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ‬. ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ‬
‫ ﻭﺃﻣـﺎ‬.‫ﻭﺍﻹﺑﻼﻍ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻘﺼﺪ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻜﺎﺳﺐ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻬﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻳﻔﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻓﲑﻛﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻛﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺘﺨﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﻬﺗﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺳﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳـﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬
‫ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﺪ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﳏـﺼﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋـﻞ‬. ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻓﺼﺎﺡ‬
‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ) ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﳛﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ ( ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺮﻏﺒـﺔ‬
. ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﺘﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬
. ‫ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺐ‬-‫ﺃ‬
(( ))
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