COVAX GLOBAL

SUPPLY FORECAST
JANUARY 20, 2021
The COVAX Global Supply Forecast aims to provide an
up-to-date overview of the supply of safe and effective
vaccines to the COVAX Facility. Our goal is to offer
economies participating in COVAX as much clarity as
possible on when we expect the doses we have secured
to start arriving. To this end, we provide both a global
overview as well as specific regional forecasts.
According to our forecasting and assuming funding
availability, we expect as many as ~1.8 billion doses to be
available to the 92 economies of the Gavi COVAX Advance
Market Commitment (AMC) in 2021, corresponding to
~27% coverage of AMC populations.1
Our forecasting indicates that we should fulfil the requests
for vaccine placed by Self-Financing Participants in the
second half of 2021.
There are many uncertainties affecting the supply of
COVID-19 vaccines in 2021, not least around manufacturing
capacity, regulation, funding availability, final contract
terms and the readiness of countries themselves to begin
their national COVID-19 vaccination programmes. We list
these caveats in the right hand column of each slide.
In recognition of the fast-changing nature of COVAX’s
supply outlook, and of the need to balance uncertainty
with predictability, COVAX is committed to regularly
updating this forecast.
1
India handled exceptionally as decided by the Gavi Board.
COVAX FACILITY CANDIDATE-SPECIFIC SUPPLY PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021 AND 2022

COVAX Available Supply, Mn doses, 2021 and 20221

200 20 2,790

560
Committed doses

Optional doses

200 2,010

500

40 1,310
170

550

550

Signed Secured Candidate Candidate Candidate Total

deals volumes A B C

Secured volumes from Secured volumes from Near-term agreements on

legally-binding agreements non-binding agreements volumes under active negotiation

1
The COVAX Facility has signed legal agreements with Serum Institute of India (SII), AstraZeneca, and Pfizer/BioNTech;
a Memorandum of Understanding with Johnson & Johnson (J&J); and a Statement of Intent with Sanofi-GSK.

3
COVAX FACILITY GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021
Contracts: Some of the supply
2,270 included in the projections are linked to
630
deals that are already concluded and
some are currently being negotiated.
Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211 1,945 Candidate attrition: Some candidates
540 are still in clinical development. If they
do not achieve positive clinical trial
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
Secured volumes from signed agreements2 1,620 regulatory approval, these volumes
455 1,640 will not be procured by COVAX.
Volumes under active negotiation
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
1,405 will depend on regulatory success
1,295
and timelines, including reviews of
365 individual batches (“batch release”).
1,080 1,165
Manufacturing: In many cases,
295 manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
Manufacturing productivity will be
870
930 influenced by multiple factors, which will in
225 Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
785 volumes
Corresponding to supply 640 to become
availability, regulatory
Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
160 640 available in on various factors, including local
approvals may cause 2022, subject
delays to deliveries regulatory approval, country readiness,
480 to funding logistics, indemnification and liability in
325 availability
place, in-country distribution etc.
235 325
235 Funding availability: Total potential supply
145
is shown; procurement of these doses
145
will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent. by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

4
COVAX FACILITY GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

BY AMC-ELIGIBLE AND SFP

Contracts: Some of the supply
2,270 included in the projections are linked to
485 deals that are already concluded and
some are currently being negotiated.
Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211 1,945 Candidate attrition: Some candidates
485 are still in clinical development. If they
do not achieve positive clinical trial
1,785 outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AMC 1,620 regulatory approval, these volumes
445 will not be procured by COVAX.
SFP
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
1,460
will depend on regulatory success
1,295
and timelines, including reviews of
355
individual batches (“batch release”).
1,080 1,175
Manufacturing: In many cases,
295 manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
Manufacturing productivity will be
870 940 influenced by multiple factors, which will in
240 Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
785 volumes
Corresponding to supply 640 to become Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory 175 available in
approvals may cause
630 on various factors, including local
2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries to funding
465 logistics, indemnification and liability in
availability
325 place, in-country distribution etc.
235 90
65 235
Funding availability: Total potential supply
40 145
170 is shown; procurement of these doses
105 will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent. by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

5
COVAX FACILITY GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

BY REGION
Contracts: Some of the supply
2,270 included in the projections are linked to
deals that are already concluded and
some are currently being negotiated.
Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211 1,945 Candidate attrition: Some candidates
are still in clinical development. If they
do not achieve positive clinical trial
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AFRO PAHO 1,620 regulatory approval, these volumes
will not be procured by COVAX.
EMRO SEARO
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
will depend on regulatory success
EURO WPRO 1,295
and timelines, including reviews of
individual batches (“batch release”).
1,080 Manufacturing: In many cases,
manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
Manufacturing productivity will be
870
influenced by multiple factors, which will in
Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
volumes
Corresponding to supply 640 to become Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory available in
approvals may cause on various factors, including local
2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries to funding logistics, indemnification and liability in
availability
325 place, in-country distribution etc.
235
Funding availability: Total potential supply
145
is shown; procurement of these doses
will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M). timing and volumes will be determined
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent. by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

6
COVAX FACILITY GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

BY CANDIDATE
Contracts: Some of the supply
included in the projections are linked to
deals that are already concluded and
some are currently being negotiated.
Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211 2,270
Candidate attrition: Some candidates
are still in clinical development. If they
do not achieve positive clinical trial
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
SII (AstraZeneca) AstraZeneca regulatory approval, these volumes
will not be procured by COVAX.
SII (Novavax) Other2
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
will depend on regulatory success
J&J
and timelines, including reviews of
individual batches (“batch release”).
1,295
Manufacturing: In many cases,
manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
Manufacturing productivity will be
influenced by multiple factors, which will in
Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
volumes
to become Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
640 available in on various factors, including local
2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
to funding logistics, indemnification and liability in
availability
place, in-country distribution etc.

Funding availability: Total potential supply

145
is shown; procurement of these doses
will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 75% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M). timing and volumes will be determined
2
“Other” candidates include all those currently under active negotiation. by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

7
WHO REGION-
SPECIFIC VIEW
AFRO SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021
Contracts: Some of the supply
540 included in the projections are linked to
15 deals that are already concluded and
525 some are currently being negotiated.
Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211
Candidate attrition: Some candidates
445
are still in clinical development. If they
15
do not achieve positive clinical trial
430
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AMC regulatory approval, these volumes
365
will not be procured by COVAX.
SFP 15
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
350
will depend on regulatory success
and timelines, including reviews of
290
individual batches (“batch release”).
10
280 Manufacturing: In many cases,
240
manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
10
Manufacturing productivity will be
235 influenced by multiple factors, which will in
195
Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
5
volumes
Corresponding to supply 190 to become
145 Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory available in
approvals may cause 5 on various factors, including local
2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries to funding
140 logistics, indemnification and liability in
availability
75 place, in-country distribution etc.
50 3
Funding availability: Total potential supply
30 2 70
1 is shown; procurement of these doses
30 50 will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent. by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

9
EMRO SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021
Contracts: Some of the supply
355 included in the projections are linked to
70 deals that are already concluded and
some are currently being negotiated.
Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211 305 Candidate attrition: Some candidates
70 are still in clinical development. If they
do not achieve positive clinical trial
285
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AMC 255 regulatory approval, these volumes
65 will not be procured by COVAX.
SFP
235 Regulatory approval: Supply timing
will depend on regulatory success
205
and timelines, including reviews of
50
individual batches (“batch release”).
190
170 Manufacturing: In many cases,
40
manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
155 Manufacturing productivity will be
135
influenced by multiple factors, which will in
35 Further
130
turn influence volume and timing of supply.
volumes
Corresponding to supply 100 to become Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory 25 105 available in
approvals may cause on various factors, including local
2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries to funding
75 logistics, indemnification and liability in
availability
50 place, in-country distribution etc.
35 15
10 40 Funding availability: Total potential supply
5 25
30 is shown; procurement of these doses
15 will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

10
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent.
EURO SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021
Contracts: Some of the supply
165 included in the projections are linked to
50 deals that are already concluded and
some are currently being negotiated.
Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211 145
50 Candidate attrition: Some candidates
are still in clinical development. If they
do not achieve positive clinical trial
125
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AMC 45 regulatory approval, these volumes
will not be procured by COVAX.
115
SFP
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
100 will depend on regulatory success
35
95
and timelines, including reviews of
individual batches (“batch release”).
80
30 Manufacturing: In many cases,
80 manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
65 Manufacturing productivity will be
25 influenced by multiple factors, which will in
65 Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
volumes
Corresponding to supply 50
to become
50 Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory 20 available in
approvals may cause on various factors, including local
40 2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries to funding logistics, indemnification and liability in
25 30 availability
place, in-country distribution etc.
20 10
5 Funding availability: Total potential supply
10 15
10
is shown; procurement of these doses
5
will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
5
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent. by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

11
PAHO SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021
Contracts: Some of the supply
280 included in the projections are linked to
200 deals that are already concluded and
265 some are currently being negotiated.
200 Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211
235 Candidate attrition: Some candidates
180 are still in clinical development. If they
do not achieve positive clinical trial
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AMC regulatory approval, these volumes
185 will not be procured by COVAX.
SFP 145
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
will depend on regulatory success
155 and timelines, including reviews of
120 individual batches (“batch release”).

125
Manufacturing: In many cases,
95
manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
Manufacturing productivity will be
influenced by multiple factors, which will in
95 Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
70
volumes
Corresponding to supply to become Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory 80 available in
approvals may cause on various factors, including local
2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries 65
to funding
45 logistics, indemnification and liability in
55 availability
35 place, in-country distribution etc.
35 40
25 35 Funding availability: Total potential supply
20 30
15 20 is shown; procurement of these doses
will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
5 10 10
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

12
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent.
SEARO SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021
Contracts: Some of the supply
695 included in the projections are linked to
695
deals that are already concluded and
some are currently being negotiated.
Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211
Candidate attrition: Some candidates
560 are still in clinical development. If they
do not achieve positive clinical trial
560
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AMC regulatory approval, these volumes
will not be procured by COVAX.
SFP 445
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
445
will depend on regulatory success
and timelines, including reviews of
360
individual batches (“batch release”).
360 Manufacturing: In many cases,
300 manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
300 Manufacturing productivity will be
influenced by multiple factors, which will in
240 Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
240 volumes
Corresponding to supply to become Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory 175 available in
approvals may cause on various factors, including local
175 2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries to funding logistics, indemnification and liability in
availability
place, in-country distribution etc.
90
65 90 Funding availability: Total potential supply
40 65 is shown; procurement of these doses
40 will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

13
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent.
WPRO SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021
Contracts: Some of the supply
225 included in the projections are linked to
145 deals that are already concluded and
210 some are currently being negotiated.
145 Terms are subject to change.
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 2021 1
Candidate attrition: Some candidates
185 are still in clinical development. If they
130
do not achieve positive clinical trial
outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AMC regulatory approval, these volumes
will not be procured by COVAX.
150
SFP
105 Regulatory approval: Supply timing
will depend on regulatory success
125 and timelines, including reviews of
90 individual batches (“batch release”).

Manufacturing: In many cases,

100 manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
70
Manufacturing productivity will be
influenced by multiple factors, which will in
Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
75 80
volumes
Corresponding to supply 50
to become Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory 65
available in
approvals may cause on various factors, including local
2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries 55
to funding logistics, indemnification and liability in
40 45 availability
25 place, in-country distribution etc.
25 35
20 30
15 Funding availability: Total potential supply
20 is shown; procurement of these doses
10
10 will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
5 10
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

14
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent.
OTHER VIEWS
OF THE DATA
AU SUPPLY FORECAST PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO ASSUMPTIONS CAVEATS

COVAX GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST

As per 2021-01-20

2021
Contracts: Some of the supply
710 included in the projections are linked to
15 deals that are already concluded and
~27% population
some are currently being negotiated.
690 coverage across
Terms are subject to change.
AMC participants
COVAX Available Supply, Cumulative, Mn doses, 20211 by end-2021
Candidate attrition: Some candidates
585
are still in clinical development. If they
15
do not achieve positive clinical trial
570 outcomes (safety and efficacy) and
AMC regulatory approval, these volumes
475 will not be procured by COVAX.
SFP 15
Regulatory approval: Supply timing
460 will depend on regulatory success
and timelines, including reviews of
380
individual batches (“batch release”).
15

320 370 Manufacturing: In many cases,

10 manufacturing is yet to reach full scale.
Manufacturing productivity will be
255 310 influenced by multiple factors, which will in
10 Further turn influence volume and timing of supply.
volumes
Corresponding to supply 250 to become
190 Delivery: Timing of delivery will depend
availability, regulatory available in
approvals may cause 5 on various factors, including local
2022, subject regulatory approval, country readiness,
delays to deliveries 185
to funding logistics, indemnification and liability in
availability
95 place, in-country distribution etc.
70 3
40 2 95 Funding availability: Total potential supply
1
is shown; procurement of these doses
65
40 will depend on COVAX AMC fundraising,
AMC92 cost-sharing beyond donor-
funded doses, and the final prices and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Early volumes of doses allocated to AMC92.
100% 100% 100% 100% 75% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 2022
Allocation: These supply forecasts
reflect a preliminary distribution of
% Secured volumes from signed agreements2
doses based on each participant’s share
of available supply pro rata by demand
1
Supply refers to volumes of vaccine available from the manufacturer. Timing of forecasts is based on anticipated release of doses from
and are to be treated as indicative. Final
manufacturers. Volumes for expected single-dose regimen vaccine candidates doubled to ensure comparability across vaccine candidates.
Volumes have been rounded to the nearest 5M (except for those smaller than 5M), and so totals may not equal sum of segments. timing and volumes will be determined
by the WHO Allocation Mechanism.

16
2
Signed agreements include legally-binding agreements, memoranda of understanding, and statements of intent.