Energy Systems Modelling and

Analysis EN 401/EN 618

Modelling overview

Lecture 2 18th July 2017

 Decision Types / Perspectives

 System selection  End Users

Yes/No  Manufacturers
Best possible amongst
options  Utility
 System / Component  Society /
Design Government
 Decide Operating  Others
Strategy
 Decide Policies
Pump- Motor

www.tacisinfo.ru

www.tacisinfo.ru
Levels of Analysis
 Physical Verification
 Operational
 Functional – Does it perform the
desired function?
 Efficiency – Is it possible to improve the
operating efficiency?
 Process Changes/Modifications
 Problem solving process

Source: ETH Zurich Lecture notes Systems Modelling and Analysis 2011
 Understanding the problem

Source: ETH Zurich Lecture notes Systems Modelling and Analysis 2011
 Criteria
 Cost - Initial Cost, Operating Cost,
Life Cycle Cost

 Reliability-Availability, Unmet Energy

 Emissions - Local, Global

 Sustainability

 Equity
Model
What is a model?

What models are you familiar with?

Why do we need a model?

Model - Definition
 n – a replica of something
a representation of something to be
constructed (e.g. model of building)
 v –to produce a representation or
simulation of, to construct or fashion in
imitation of
A model is a representation of reality
Steps in Model Development
Objectives

Analyse Problem Situation

Decide Evaluation Criteria

Establish Relationships
Problem Synthesis

Testing and Validation

Make Inferences
Prescribe Actions
Which of the following is true:

i) A model needs to capture all

elements of the reality
ii) A model should be developed in an
iterative fashion with the end user
iii)For any process , a simulation model
that is developed must be unique
iv)All of the above
v) None of the above
How many medals will India get in the
Tokyo 2020 Olympics?

How many medals will China, USA get in

the Tokyo Olympics?

How do we predict?

Can a model help?

121

70

67

19
Model performance 2012
Regression Model
Predictions
 Correlations

Bredtman et al, June 2016 Significance

 Medals - Regression

CV7 CV8

Bredtman et al, June 2016 Significance

Duckworth- Lewis Method
 Duckworth Lewis Method

Two resources – overs and wickets

Z0(w) = asymptotic average total score from last

10-w wickets, b(w) exponential decay constant
Duckworth Lewis Method
Types of Models

 Black Box Model

 Grey Box Model

 White Box Model

Which of the following is true?
i) A Black box model is always more
accurate than a White box model
ii) White Box models are always
preferred to Black Box Models
iii) Grey Box models can never be better
than both Black Box and White Box
models
iv) All of the above

v) None of the above

Judging the model
 Ability to give correct inputs for the
decision it is intended for
 Reliability
 Accuracy of prediction
 Computational effort/ cost
 Computational time
Air Separation Process
Assumptions
 Symmetry- Analysis of a single column
 Isothermal process
 Linear uncoupled isotherms
 Instantaneous equilibrium
 Axial dispersion neglected
 Air-binary mixture
Equations
Input Data
Output
Output
Linear Fresnel Leflectors
Receiver Heat Loss
Equipment Design/Analysis Solar Thermal-LFR

Modelling and analysis of

receiver – heat loss, steady
state hydrothermal analysis
of absorber tubes

Experimental validation
Experimental analogy
 Trough Field
8175 m2 area – 3 MWth

LFR Field
7020 m2 area – 2 MWth

38
 Schematic of Solar Power Plant Simulator
General User
Inputs site data – lat., long., insolation, temperature,
wind speed, rainfall

Solar Models Data library, interpolation modules, empirical models

Fluid properties – water, thermic fluids, etc.

Fluid Models Library of fluid properties

Characteristic models – solar collectors, pumps,

Equipment Models heat exchangers, turbines, etc.
[e.g., collector  = f (min, Tin, IT/B, Vwind)]

User defined connectivity for equipment through

Flow sheeting
GUI. Alternative configurations can be studied.

Equation builder & Based on user defined PFD – mathematical models

Solver User defined time steps, time horizon. Pseudo steady
State simulation – sequential modular approach

Simulation output System performance including cost of overall system

39
Generation of user defined process flow
diagram using user interface

40
User Interface: Main Window

41
Results display in tabular form

Results display in graphical form

42
 Simplified Process Flow Diagram
High Temperature
Vessel

Pump-II
13 bar, 393°C 42 bar, 350°C
8.53 kg/s 1.93 kg/s
Turbine
1 MWe

Superheater
44 bar, 256.1°C 0.1 bar, 45.5°C
0.84 kg/s (Sat. Steam) 1.78 kg/s
PTC Field
(8175m2) Steam
Steam Separator
Generator
LFR Field
(7020m2)

17.5 bar, 232°C 46.3 bar, 171°C

8.53 kg/s Preheater
2.22 kg/s

Pump-III
45 bar, 105°C Cooling Water
1.09 kg/s
Pump-VI

Pump-I Low Temperature Deareator Pump-IV

Pump-V
Vessel
Source: ISES, 2013
44
45
 A portion of the ELU
map of Ward A of
MCGM
Corresponding Satellite
Imagery for the area from
Google Earth

Analyzed in QGIS
1.8.0
To determine
-Building Footprint
Ratios
- Usable PV Areas
46
For Sample
Buildings
Plan Layout

47
 Jan, 2014 Typical Load Profile vs
Capacity Factor for
PV Generation 0.185
Mumbai
2.5 1-Axis Tracking

0.175

2 Fixed Tilt @ 19
1-Axis deg.
Tracking @ 0.165
Highest eff.
1.5 Annual Average
1-Axix with 1-Axis
Tracking @
MUs

0.155 Tracking
Median eff.
1 19 deg. Fixed
Tilt @ Highest 0.145
eff.
0.5 19 deg. Fixed
Tilt @ Median
eff. 0.135

0
0:01- 1:00
1:01- 2:00
2:01- 3:00
3:01- 4:00
4:01- 5:00
5:01- 6:00
6:01- 7:00
7:01- 8:00
8:01- 9:00

10:01-11:00
11:01-12:00
12:01-13:00
13:01-14:00
14:01-15:00
15:01-16:00
16:01-17:00
17:01-18:00
18:01-19:00
19:01-20:00
20:01-21:00
21:01-22:00
22:01-23:00
23:01-24:00
9:01-10:00

0.125

0.115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

48
References
 ETH Zurich Lecture notes Systems Modelling and Analysis 2011
 R Banerjee et al, Chem Engg Sci, 1990
 Bredtman et al, June 2016 Significance
 https://www.pwc.com/ee/et/publications/pub/Modelling%20Oly
mpic%20performance.pdf (last accessed July 18,2016)
 www.tacisinfo.ru
 F. C. Duckworth and A. J. Lewis,’A Fair Method for Resetting
the Target in Interrupted One-Day Cricket Matches’, The Journal
of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 49, No. 3 (Mar.,
1998), pp.220-227