Mt.

Bulusan: An Active Volcano Case Study

1. Introduction
Mount Bulusan is a stratovolcano, a cone-shaped volcano which has one or several summit
craters. It has a base diameter of 15 kilometers (km). Located in Sorsogon province, it is about 70 km away
from Mayon Volcano in Albay, Bicol.

In the east, it is bounded by San Bernardino Strait, while in the north, by Sorsogon Bay. Volcanic
mountains surround its western and southern portions.

It is the 4th most active volcano in the Philippines, making it affects the lives of the Filipinos
surrounding the area during eruption periods. A total of 60 barangays within the territorial jurisdiction of six
municipalities (Barcelona, Bulusan, Casiguran, Gubat, Irosin and Juban) are covered by the Bulusan
Volcano hazard zones established by PHIVOLCS. These barangays lie within 4-10 km. from the summit of
Bulusan Volcano. And so some of the sections in the vicinity were being influenced with this incident.

The volcano may indeed considered a threat since ash-falls were recorded by several local
communities, and steam was observed to be emitted from several other vents on the flanks of the volcano..
 2. Body of the Case Study

Mount Bulusan has had 16 recorded significant eruptions, so far. It’s first was in 1852.  Some of the
cases occur had a series of minor eruptions, followed by “earthquakes, rumblings and subterranean noise.
Mount Bulusan was recorded to have emitted ash, and in terms of this situation it modified the lives of the
residents. In December 1918, lava started pouring down, light shocks were felt, and rumblings were heard,
causing alarm in nearby towns and barrios. According to data from Phivolcs, “the eruptive force was so
great that the vertical column was unaffected by the prevailing wind, cloud was then slowly carried towards
the west where it caused so much darkness” and other similar tremendous events happened that shock the
whole area.

In other case, some occurrence were directed like part of the eruption often comes without
warning, skipping the usual alert levels issued by Phivolcs before an eruption. Such type is hard to predict,
causing it to transpire rapidly without a notice, leaving the citizens in hysteria and disturbance.

But in relation to this situation, the govermen implemented the Operation Bulusan, which was was
an action plan initiated by the predecessor of Phivolcs, the Commission on Volcanology (ComVol), in 1978
if Mount Bulusan erupt. This includes potential volcanic hazards, potential affected areas and possible
evacuation zones. The public is also prohibited from entering the "permanent Dangerous Zone," a four-
kilometer radius around Bulusan. So the system of protection and security were being implemented if there
is a possibility of eruption and after the incident happen. The citizen were being informed regarding
evacuation procedures in place for parts of the peninsula; the farms nearest the volcano are to be
evacuated, and many of the village schools will be closed if it is considered possible that a more destructive
eruption could occur. And so the government undertake safety measures which is necessary to this type of
event.

A. Problem

The Philippines sits on a unique tectonic setting ideal to volcano formation. The archipelago is
surrounded by subducting plates as manifested by the trenches that are related to volcano formation.

A volcano is a mountain that opens downward to a reservoir of molten rock below the surface of
the earth. Unlike most mountains, which are pushed up from below, volcanoes are vents through which
molten rock escapes to the earth’s surface. When pressure from gases within the molten rock becomes too
great, an eruption occurs. Eruptions can be quiet or explosive. There may be lava flows, flattened
landscapes, poisonous gases, and flying rock and ash that can sometimes travel hundreds of miles
downwind.

Because of their intense heat, lava flows are great fire hazards. Lava flows destroy everything in
their path, but most move slowly enough that people can move out of the way.

Fresh volcanic ash, made of pulverized rock, can be abrasive, acidic, gritty, gassy and odorous.
While not immediately dangerous to most adults, the acidic gas and ash can cause lung damage to small
infants, to older adults and to those suffering from severe respiratory illnesses. Volcanic ash also can
damage machinery, including engines and electrical equipment. Ash accumulations mixed with water
become heavy and can collapse roofs. Volcanic ash can affect people hundreds of miles away from the
cone of a volcano.
Precursory Signs

In general, the following are the precursory signs of Bulusan's eruption:

1. Increase in the frequency of volcanic quakes with rumbling sounds

2. Increased steaming activity

3. Noticeable increase in the extent of drying up of vegetation around the volcano's upper slopes

4. Variation in the temperature of hot springs at San Benon

5. Rumbling sound

6. Increased amount of whitish to yellowish deposits of sulfur sublimates at the upper slope

Volcanic eruptions can be accompanied by other natural hazards, including earthquakes, mudflows

and flash floods, rock falls and landslides, acid rain, fire, and (under special conditions) tsunamis.

B. Analysis of Alternatives

Volcanic eruptions happen with early warnings unlike earthquakes that are sudden. There are early
warning signs before a volcano erupts so there is at least time for residents around the volcano to prepare
before the actual eruption occurs.

People should know that before a volcano erupts there are warning signs such as rumbling
sounds, continuous emissions of steam, increasing temperature around the volcano that results to
withering of plants around and unusual behaviors of animals and earthquakes.

There are dangers that volcanic eruptions pose to people so it is important that they know how to
handle situations before, during and after volcanic eruptions to avoid serious problems. The government
has agencies that take care of reporting information about a certain volcano and its activities in order for
people to be warned and avoid unpleasant incidents from happening.

Here are precautionary measures before volcanic eruptions:

1. Each one should be aware of the dangers that volcanic eruptions pose to lives and be prepared to face
whatever circumstances the eruption may bring.

2. Prepare all necessary things to bring once evacuation is needed. Those in danger zones are warned
when to evacuate. Once given the signal refrain from saying you will be all right. Refusing to evacuate will
pose more serious problems.
3. Store as much food, water, light sources and batteries that are very useful in case of emergency.

4. Volcanic eruptions have ash falls so be prepared for masks or anything to cover nose and mouth.

5. Prioritize the safety of kids before other things. If you have relatives or friends who are far from the
volcano, take your children there until such time that your place is safe.

Here are precautionary measures during volcanic eruptions:

1. Avoid all low-lying places because lava flows and mudflows are more likely to pass here.

2. Seek cover in case of ash falls rock falls.

3. Use masks and cover your mouth and nose to avoid breathing in ashes.

4. If you are inside a house; close all doors and windows to avoid ashes from getting inside.

5. Always stay indoors.

6. Stay in the evacuation center until further instructions. Do not attempt to leave the place unless told to
do.

7. Keep a watchful eye on the kids because they might be tempted to go out and see what’s going on
outside.

Here are precautionary measures after volcanic eruptions:

1. Go back to your house but leave the kids behind someone who can take care of them while you check
your house.

2. Clean everything around and check all damages incurred.

3. Use masks while cleaning ash and other debris.

4. Wait for further announcements related to the volcano activities.

5. Make sure that your house is still safe for all of you.

Volcanic eruptions could be handled easier than earthquakes because there are early signs before
the actual eruption so you are already prepared at the time of eruption. Always take precautionary
measures in order to avoid serious problems.

C. Recommended Solution
 The methodological approach to the risk analysis of a single event made by the classical
probabilistic convolution, Vulnerability and Exposure has to be appropriately modified. Consequently, in
order to produce effective tools addressing these issues, dynamic multi-hazard evaluation, time-dependent
vulnerability functions of the element at risk under examination, and its exposure evolving in time and
space, are required. Systemic studies on hazard, vulnerability and exposure have become the main field of
investigation and have to be embedded within a multi-risk assessment approach. Multi-risk in fact is more
than a simple aggregation of single risks, due to the possible amplification of risk indexes due to
interactions among different hazards and/or cascade events. In this field, only few studies have been
conducted and ongoing research still needs considerable efforts.

The volcanic hazard represents a relevant research issue in the field of multi-risk assessment and
management, as it embodies a possible well-defined sequence of disastrous events (i.e. an event is
characterized by the following phases: several seismic tremors and earthquakes during the unrest phase,
ash fall, bombs and gas emission during the eruption, pyroclastic flows at the end of the eruption and
lahars after the eruption), which in turn can lead to cascading effects in multiple systems.

In this case, the decision-makers are faced with the necessity to evaluate the dynamic changes of
the system status along the crisis. Therefore, a time-dependent risk assessment is required, along with the
evaluation of the variation laws that govern the status along the time history assumed for the several
involved systems, such as:

• seismic hazard probability and the dependent eruption probability;

• vulnerability of the buildings facing the escaping ways;
• roads network vulnerability (practicability, redundancies, etc.);
• social preparedness and the probability of bad reactions of the population;
• vulnerability of the information system and management of the media;
• lifelines network vulnerability and its influence on the emergency management;
• rescue system efficiency, time of intervention, capability, etc;
• health system efficiency, time of treatment, capability; etc.

Inventory data (exposure of the element at risk)

• distribution of building class typologies on the territory;

• total inhabitants and occupants per building type during day/night hours, etc.;
• roads network and critical facilities inventory: lifelines, resources system and their capacity data
(hospitals, fire stations, ambulances, helicopters, etc.);
• additional usable resources in “peace time.

D. Implementation
 The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) is a service institute of the
Department of Science and Technology (DOST) that is principally mandated to mitigate disasters that may
arise from volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunami and other related geotectonic phenomena.

Mandates

1. Predict the occurrence of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes and their related geotectonic
phenomena
2. Determine how eruptions and earthquakes shall occur and also areas likely to be affected
3. Generate sufficient data for forecasting volcanic eruptions and earthquakes
4. Mitigate hazards of volcanic activities through appropriate detection, forecast and warning system
5. Formulate appropriate disaster preparedness plans

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) in its bid to enhance the
monitoring network of Mt. Bulusan, will be holding a three-day series of seminar-workshops in the direct
impact and highly susceptible municipalities to volcanic eruption in Sorsogon.

The mission of Phivolcs is to ensure safe communities through establishment of effective

monitoring network, development and application of technologies for accurate prediction of volcanic
eruptions, earthquakes, tsunami occurrences, and other related hazards; mapping and delineation of areas
prone to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes; and enhanced capacity for comprehensive disaster
preparedness and risk mitigation. The activity is one among the Phivolcs’ strategies to carry out its mission.
 Volcanologist use many different kinds of tools including instruments that detect and record
earthquakes (seismometers and seimographs), instruments that measure ground deformation (EDM,
Leveling, GPS, tilt), instruments that detect and measure volcanic gases (COSPEC), instruments that
determine how much lava is moving underground (VLF, EM-31), video and still cameras, infrared cameras,
satellite imagers, webcams, etc!, in order to examine a clearer view and result regarding volcanic and
earthquake signals.

By studying volcanic deposits, scientists can produce hazard maps. These maps indicate the types
of hazards that can be expected in a given area the next time a volcano erupts. Dating of these volcanic
deposits helps determine how often an eruption may occur and the probability of an eruption each year.
Monitoring of a volcano over long periods of time will indicate changes in the volcano before it erupts.
These changes can help in predicting when an eruption may occur.

E. Results
Volcanoes are usually less dangerous than other natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis
and hurricanes.

Nearly every recorded volcanic eruption has been preceded by an increase in earthquake activity
beneath or near the volcano. For this reason, seismic monitoring has become one of the most useful tools
for eruption forecasting and monitoring.

In addition to monitoring, the improved ability to locate earthquakes recorded by permanent

seismic networks provides three-dimensional images of the magmatic plumbing systems beneath some
volcanoes. The increasing use of broadband seismometers has facilitated the complete recording and
comprehensive analysis of long-period seismic signals, which have preceded and accompanied a number
of eruptions. A more quantitative understanding of long-period seismicity not only refines short-term
forecasts of volcano hazards, but also improves our knowledge of magma transport and eruption dynamics.

The main reason scientists study and monitor volcanoes is so that those living near active
volcanoes can be aware of the hazards produced by volcanoes. This awareness will hopefully prevent loss
of life and property when an eruption occurs. It is important that scientists communicate with local
government officials and the general public about hazards produced by the volcanoes in their area. This
interaction and the development of an emergency plan with established lines of communication will
hopefully save lives and encourage better land use planning.

References:
http://users.bendnet.com/bjensen/volcano/asia/philippines/bulusan.html

http://www.malapascua.de/Volcanoe-Map/Vulkan_BULUSAN/hauptteil_vulkan_bulusan.htm

http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_VMEPD/Volcano/VolcanoList/bulusan.htm

http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/135992-mount-bulusan-eruption

http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/knowledge-base/92519-fast-facts-mount-bulusan-active-volcano

http://sciencythoughts.blogspot.com/2015/06/eruptions-on-mount-bulusan.html

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/504694/scitech/science/mount-bulusan-erupts-aftermath-still-being-studied

http://www.rappler.com/previous-articles?filterMeta=bulusan+eruption

https://science1.knoji.com/precautionary-measures-before-during-and-after-volcanic-eruptions/

http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/images/IEC/bulusan%20volcano%20profile%20revised%206%2020%2007.pdf

https://www.ready.gov/volcanoes