The possible scenario of Agricultural Industry in China after COVID-19 pandemic:

With an estimated population of 1.4 billion people in early 2020, China is the globe’s most
populous country. Its agricultural output needs to feed nearly 20% of the world’s population.
Most of the agricultural produce is indeed intended for the domestic market. Agriculture employs
about a third of the country’s workforce, but it’s only responsible for 10% of the GDP. This
uneven ratio points at a fairly low productivity. Most products are simply bought by local
consumers, and the majority of agricultural exports from mainland China go to Hong Kong.
Agriculture in China yields food crops like rice, wheat, corn, millet, sorghum, soybeans, and tea,
as well as such cash crops as cotton and tobacco. Animal husbandry, fishing, and aqua farming
are also important parts of China’s economy. An area where the Chinese set the global standard
is in agriculture. There are nearly 300 million Chinese farmers, larger than the entire population
of every country except China, India and the U.S. Rice is the dominant agricultural product in
China, but the country is also very competitive in wheat, tobacco, potatoes, peanuts, millet, pork,
fish, soybeans, corn, tea, and oilseeds. Farmers also export large amounts of vegetables, fruits
and novel meats to nearby countries and regions.

China GDP from Agriculture/Primary Industry:

Source: tradingeconomics.com

To begin with the possible scenario of the agricultural industry in China after the coronavirus pandemic
settles in, we have to examine to what extent the harvest of the 2019/20 growing season is
affected by the crisis. The growing season started last autumn. In most cases, fields were sown in
September or October 2019 (for winter grains such as wheat, barley and rye, rapeseed and catch
crops, and green fodder). The share of these crops can be estimated at about 60% according to
2016 figures. This is just an estimate, since in some countries, the division between summer and
winter crops is not clear. We assume that the largest part of grains (wheat and barley) and
rapeseed are winter crops; however, a small proportion of these crops might be still seeded in
summer. The agricultural industry of China is primarily categorized into two divisions that are-
Food crops and Cash crops. Rice being the most important food crop produces the list also
includes wheat, corn, potatoes, oat, a variety of fruits and vegetable etc. The major cash crops
include cotton, peanuts, sesame, sugarcane, tea, tobacco, mulberry, jute etc.

Source: Wikipedia

Although the COVID-19 pandemic had its effect on a lot of industries and their progress in
China, the agricultural sector hasn’t been out of its breach. Agriculture has been widely affected
in China since the beginning of the spread of COVID-19 during the December of 2019. Since the
initiation of quarantine and lockdown in China to decrease the spread of infection widely,
agricultural industry has faced reduces progress even though it is a major sector that contributes
not only in the national GDP but also in the global food supply. Two dimensions of the food
supply chain that are greatly affected are production and distribution. As a result of the lockdown
measures and controls on population mobility, transport of agricultural inputs was limited and
labor was in shortage, which potentially could cause disruptions from the production side.
Further, almost every step of the distribution channels of agricultural products was disrupted,
from local buying to wholesaling, and from cross-region logistics to city consumption. This was
accompanied by the reduced market demand of agricultural products due to the shutdown of
restaurants, caterers and public canteens, which eventually resulted in large amounts of
unsellable seasonal vegetables and fruits backlogged or even unpicked in farms. If these issues
remained unsolved, the farmers would fail to make a profit from this harvest, which would in
turn cause difficulty in investment for the following spring planting and consequently reduce
production of next season.

Under such circumstances the agricultural market in China falls under a major threat of possible
inflation because a risk arises for a greater demand than the supply. If the production is not
ensured then both the national and global demands will fail to be met. Furthermore, there is a
risk of a possible famine in near future if the production is halted for a longer period of time for
maintaining lockdown. Ensuring public safety has become vital but nonetheless, the agricultural
industry as well as several other industries that kept the wheels of the economy running have
been sabotaged. Since the pandemic started the agricultural sector faced disruption of the food
supply chain, stressed agricultural value chains, disruption in spring planting activities, possible
labor shortages etc. These not only puts a sever impact on rural trade but also in the global trade
of China, almost disrupting the wheels of economy from moving forward. So, it is clear to see
that the market of agricultural industry in China faces a grave danger as long as production
remains halted, after the COVID-19 pandemic. It is gravely needed in present times to take
necessary mitigation measures to provide immediate support aimed at undoing the damage
caused by disruptive preventive measures, and to provide policy support to stimulate and sustain
agricultural growth and productivity. Thus, the agricultural industry and the market of China
may be turned towards a progressive dimension following the COVID-19 pandemic.

References:
1) https://www.thinkchina.sg/impact-covid-19-agriculture-sector-china
2) http://www.fao.org/in-action/food-for-cities-programme/news/detail/en/c/1270350/
3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_China#:~:text=China%20is%20number%20one
%20in,%2C%20oilseed%2C%20corn%20and%20soybeans.
4) https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-from-agriculture