Vietnam’s Security Environment

in the New Era

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
Emerging Vietnam 2022: A New Tiger Arises
Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation
Le Meridien Saigon Hotel, Ho Chi Minh City
June 15-17, 2022
 Outline
• What is the New Era?
• Post-COVID-19 Recovery
• Putin’s War in Ukraine
• Globalization or Decoupling?
• Strategic Environment
• United States-China Rivalry
• Russia-China partnership ‘without limits’
• ASEAN-centrality
• Implications for Viet Nam
 1. What is the New Era?
Post-COVID Recovery
• Optimism about recovery – restrictions lifted
• Vaccine equity – booster shots
• Global economy
• Transport difficulties – containers, ports
• Xi Jin-ping’s Zero COVID lockdown
• Inflation – energy
• Security of supply chains
• Future pandemics
 What is the New Era?
War in Ukraine – UN General Assembly Vote March 7, 2022

Russian Aggression Russian Aggression

Viet Nam For
Viet Nam 6%
19% For Against
18%
3% Abstain
Against 3%
Absent
78% Abstain 73%

NOTE: United Nations has 193 members. Resolutions are passed/defeated by the majority
of the votes cast (left chart). The chart on right includes no votes/absent.
 United Nations General Assembly Vote
March 24, 2022

Humanitarian Consequences Humanitarian Consequences

Viet Nam
Viet Nam 5% For
21% For 20%
3% Against
Against 3% Abstain
76% Abstain 72%
Absent

NNOTE: United Nations has 193 members. Resolutions are passed/defeated by the
majority of the votes cast (left chart). The chart on right includes no votes/absent.
 Vote to Suspend the Russian Federation
from UN Human Rights Council (April 7, 2022)

Human Rights Council Human Rights Council

For
For 9%
33% Against
53% Against 30% 48%
Abstain
14% Abstain 13%
Absent
Viet Nam
Viet Nam

NOTE: United Nations has 193 members. Resolutions are passed/defeated by the
majority of the votes cast (left chart). The chart on right includes no votes/absent.
 How ASEAN Members Voted on 3 UN General
Assembly Resolutions on Russia in Ukraine

Country Condemn Russian Humanitarian Suspend from UN

Aggression Consequences Human Rights
Council

For 8 7 2
Abstain 2* 3** 6
Against 0 0 2*
*Laos and Viet Nam, **Brunei, Laos and Viet Nam
 What is the New Era?
War in Ukraine
• Russian objectives
• Incorporate or subordinate Ukraine
• Expansion – spill over into neighboring countries
• Protracted conflict
• Nuclear threat
• Unprecedented economic sanctions/SWIFT/oligarchs
• Global trade and financial networks fractured
• Global food crisis
 What is the New Era?
War in Ukraine

• US and EU/NATO expansion

• Arming Ukraine and Russia’s response - threats
• Russian Federation under Putin – international pariah
• War Crimes
• Weakened Russia will be more dependent on China
• Cost of post-war Ukraine reconstruction/reparations
 What is the New Era?
Globalization or Decoupling?
• Post-Ukraine Europe weaned off Russian oil and gas
• Multilateral institutions – Russian representation
• G20 Summit in Indonesia
• APEC in Bangkok
• Polarization in Indo-Pacific Region
• Quad & AUKUS v China-Russia partnership ‘without limits’
• Belt and Road v Indo-Pacific Economic Framework
• Pressure on Japan
 What is the New Era?
World Bank Annual Global Forecast (7 June 2022)

• World economy – weak growth and rising prices

• Growth downgraded to 2.9% from 4.1% est. in January
• Inflation – energy, food (hunger, malnutrition, famine)
• U.S. economy to grow at 2.5% (down from 3.7% est)
• China’s economy to grow at 4.3% (lowest rate since
1990)
• Europe could experience recession
 2. Strategic Environment
U.S. Indo-Pacific Security Strategy (Feb 2022)
• Advance a Free and Open Indo-Pacific
• Build Connections Within and Beyond the Region
• Allies and partners, European allies
• Drive Regional Prosperity
• Bolster Indo-Pacific Security
• The PRC’s coercion and aggression spans the globe, but it is most
acute in the Indo-Pacific.
• Build Regional Resilience to Transnational Threats
 2. Strategic Environment
United States-China Rivalry

•“Even as President Putin’s war continues, we

will remain focused on the most serious long-
term challenge to the international order --
and that is the one posed by the People’s
Republic of China.”
-Secretary of State Anthony Blinken speech, Georgetown
University, May 26, 2022
 Strategic Environment
U.S. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity

Trade (cross border digital economy)

Supply Chains

Clean Energy, decarbonization and

infrastructure

Tax and Anti-Corruption

 COVID-19 & Climate
global health Change
The Quad
• Australia Maritime Domain
Awareness

• India Quality
Critical & emerging
infrastructure
• Japan technologies

• U.S.A. Counter-terrorism
HA/DR
Cyber Security and
Space
 AUKUS
Australia-United Kingdom-United States
1. Promote deeper information and technology sharing
2. Deeper integration of security and defense-related science,
technology, industrial bases, and supply chains
3. Deepen cooperation on a range of security and defense
capabilities
4. First initiative under AUKUS: support Australia in acquiring
nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy
5. Trilateral effort of 18 months to seek an optimal pathway
to deliver this capability
 Cyber Capabilities
AUKUS
Future
Artificial Intelligence
Joint Capabilities
& Interoperability
Quantum Technologies

Additional Undersea Capabilities

 Indo-Pacific
Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA)
• Near real time information from multiple sensors on naval
vessel activity in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and
Pacific.
• Strengthen regional fusion centres and track “‘dark shipping’
and other tactical-level activities, such as rendezvous at sea”
• Credible picture of Chinese maritime militia vessels and
fleets that engage in illegal, unreported, unregulated fishing
(IUUF) in the Exclusive Economic Zones of littoral states
 Strategic Environment
Hot Spots – Taiwan and North Korea

China Flies 30 Fighter Jets Into Taiwan’s North Korea Launches Ballistic Missile
Air Defence Identification Zone (May in 14th Test This Year after Quad
2022) meeting (May 2022)
 Strategic Environment
Hot Spots - Northeast Asia and South China Sea

China and Russia conduct joint air Chinese jet fighter intercepts RAAF P8-A
patrols near Japan as Quad meets Poseidon in international airspace over
in Tokyo (May 2022) South China Sea (May 2022)
 Strategic Environment
ASEAN
• ASEAN-centrality
• ASEAN-led mechanisms and Russian participation
• East Asia Summit
• ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM Plus)
• ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific
• Comprehensive Strategic Partners
• Australia, China and United States
 3. Implications for Viet Nam
13th National Party Congress Resolution
• “To resolutely and persistently struggle to firmly
defend the Homeland’s independence, sovereignty,
unity and territorial integrity.”
• “To take the initiative in preventing dangers of war
and conflict at an early time and at a distance; to early
detect and timely deal with adverse factors,
particularly those factors and dangers potential of
sudden changes…”
 13th National Party Congress Resolution

• “To continue with the foreign policy of independence,

autonomy, multilateralization and diversification;
proactive and active international integration in a
comprehensive, intensive, extensive and efficient
manner; to firmly maintain an environment of peace
and stability, and constantly elevate Vietnam’s
international status and prestige.”
 Implications for Viet Nam
Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính Speech at CSIS

• COVID-19 pandemic and conflict in the middle of Europe

are “giving rise to the risk of war and instabilities,
confronting the world economy with many hazards.
Meanwhile, competition and confrontation are leading to
decoupling in politics, security and economy.”
17 Strategic* and
12 Comprehensive
Russia
Partnerships and 2001
15 Free Trade
Agreements USA** India
2013 Viet 2007
*South Korea, Nam
Spain, UK, Germany, **comprehensive partner

Italy, Singapore,
Thailand, Indonesia,
France, Malaysia, Japan China
Philippines, Australia.
New Zealand
2009 2008
 13th National Party Congress Resolution

• “By 2025, Vietnam will basically have built an

advanced, streamlined and strong army, creating a
solid foundation to develop a people’s revolutionary
public security force and a people’s army that is well
organised, equipped with sophisticated weapons,
advanced and modernized by 2030.”
 Implications for Viet Nam
Viet Nam-Russia Relations
• Western sanctions on Russia could have collateral
impact on Viet Nam
• VietSovPetro operations
• Zarubezhneft Block 06.1 (formerly owned by Rosneft)
• Viet Nam is most vulnerable in defence procurement
sector
• Dependence on Russian arms and military technology
• Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act
(CAATSA)
 Viet Nam

Commonwealth of Australia, Defence Intelligence Organisation, Defence Economic Trends 2021

Viet Nam

LCU = Local Currency Unit

Commonwealth of Australia, Defence Intelligence Organisation, Defence Economic Trends 2021

 Top Six Arms Sellers to Viet Nam,
1995-2021 (in US$ millions)

7402

263 550 120 273 108

BELARUS ISRAEL RUSSIA SOUTH KOREA UKRAINE UNITED STATES

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Arms Transfer Data Base
Top Six Arms Sellers to Viet Nam,
1995-2021

Belarus
31%3%
2% % 6%
Israel
Russia
South Korea
Ukraine
85%
United States

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Arms Transfer Data Base
 Top Six Arms Suppliers to Viet Nam,
2014-21 (US$ million)
1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Belarus Israel Russia South Ukraine United

Korea States
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Arms Transfer Data Base
 Top Six Arms Suppliers to Viet Nam,
2014-2021 (US$ million)
1200
1056 Russia
1000
800 735
702

600
465
400
Israel 333

200 134
171 171
137
60 60 60
54 60 72
54
0 38
14 13
7 30
13 23
10 23
10 23 23
9 23
9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Belarus Israel Russia South Korea Ukraine United States

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Arms Transfer Data Base
 Viet Nam and Defence Procurement
Russian Legacy Armaments
Sukhoi SU-30 MK2

Project-636 (Kilo)-class submarine

Tarantul fast attack craft, Gepard frigates, Svetlyak patrol craft,

Sukhoi Su-27UBK fighters, Bastion coastal defence missiles, T-90SK
main battle tank, anti-ship, surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles
 Viet Nam National Defence Industry

• Overseas procurement
• Domestic production and co-production
• Maintenance – recurrent cost
• Repair – access to spare parts
• Refurbishment – upgrade
• Force modernization – long-term planning
February 7, 2022
 Conclusion
Vietnam Faces a Precarious Strategic Environment

• Viet Nam has been marking time since 2018 in

modernizing its armed forces
• Delaying procurements will see costs of maintenance,
repair and refurbishment of legacy arms rise sharply
• A weakened Russia will want to sell arms to Viet Nam
• Viet Nam will face serious consequences if it procures
“big ticket” weapons and platforms from Russia
 Vietnam Faces a
Precarious Strategic Environment

• A China-dependent Russia may come under pressure

to limit the sale of modern weapons to Viet Nam
• Overseas procurements are dependent on the growth
of Viet Nam’s economy
• Slowing world economy will dampen Viet Nam’s
growth in the near term
 Vietnam Faces
a Precarious Strategic Environment

• Mixing and matching arms from multiple suppliers will

create maintenance and interoperability problems
• Conflict in any of the hot spots will exacerbate Viet
Nam’s economic growth
• Quickening pace of developments in military
technology threaten to leave Viet Nam exposed
 Vietnam Faces
a Precarious Strategic Environment
• Protracted war in Ukraine will lead to further global
polarization and increased pressure to isolate Russia and
those countries that abet Russia
• Priority must be given to ramping up National Defence
Industry capability and selective joint force modernization
• New technology is key: drones, undersea platforms, ISR3C
(Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconaisance, Command,
Control Computing)
Vietnam’s Security Environment
in the New Era

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
Emerging Vietnam 2022: A New Tiger Arises
Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation
Le Meridien Saigon Hotel, Ho Chi Minh City
June 15-17, 2022