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21 April 1951

3.5(c)
Copy No. C1 ~ 1

CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

DOCUMCNTNO. -y~----•·-'
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. .
l l DECLASS!FIED ·
c~r~ss CHANCU?.ro 1:; s c;,.,
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AUTH: HH;'iJ.-~t
DAT!? )l"' ) ~r.EViE.WEFl: ~ - - ~
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Office of Current Intelligence

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

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SUMMARY

USSR

l Pravda co_mments on MacArthur dismissal (page 3).

FAR EAST

2. Jets reported in North Korean Air Force (page 3).

3. Popular dissatisfaction in China increasing (page 4).

NEAR EAST

4. British may misjudge conservative Iranian attitude on oil (page 4).

5. Iranians propose nationalization of Iranian-s·oviet fisheries (page 5).

6. Conditions in Afghanistan deteriorating (page 6).

EASTERN EUROPE

7. Anti-Soviet riot follows killings in Poland (page 6).

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8. WFTU trans{ers its headquarters to Vienna (page 7).

LA TIN AMERICA

9. Junta may take over Bolivian Government (page 8).

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USSR
1. Pravda comments on MacArthur dismissal:
The US Embassy in Moscow coµ1ments that . 3-3(h)( 2)
the 18.April Pravda editorial on the MacArthur
dismissal (1) reiterates the Soviet position on
the Korean war; (2) was needed to explain the
removal of an_ important "symbol of US aggtessive policy" to the Commu-
nist world,\(~) ;andvis noteworthy in :asking what steps the US intends to
take for peaeeful settlement of the conflict.
Comment: The Pravda editorial, which was
given prominent treatment, adds no new twists to the established line,
which has consistently supported the Chinese terms of settlement.
The week1 s delay in Pravda's comment was probably due to a desire
to" be sure that the dismissal represented no basic change in US policies.
The question of US intentions on peaceful settlement is rhetorical in
context and therefore is not intended to suggest an interest on the part
of the USSR in such a settlement. ·

{ -
FAR EAST
2. Jets reported in North Korean Air Force:
An Air Force operational summary, report- 3.3(h)(2)
ing clashes on the Sino-Korean border between
UN and Communist aircraft on 16 April, states
~ - - - - - - - - ~ th~t two of the MIG' s engaged in the air battle
had North Korean markings "consisting of a red star encircled by a
red band, and a blue band as the exterior circle. "
Comment: This is the first report received
in CIA that MIG's with North Korean markings have been observed.

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3. ~opular dissatisf a5rtion in China increasipg: I'., :.:

Persons coming from Commun ist China 3.3(h)(2)
-',t-
report that popular dissati-Sfaction with the
Peiping regime has grown in recent months
as a result of heavy casualtie s in. Korea,
excessiv e taxation, police-st ate oppressio n in general and the current
purges in particula r. However, there is no indicatio n of an imminent
split in the regime, nor has there arisen any active resistanc e to it
by the •Chinese masses; anti-Com munist guerrilla activities appear to
be uncoordi nated and incapable of posing a serious threat to the regime's
stability.

In regard to foreign relations , these sources

state that Peiping's anti- US campaign has been ineffective~ that the
regime is becoming increasin gly hostile to the UK, and that; while
Sino-Soviet relations on the working level lack cordiality , the Sino-
Soviet alliance appears secure.

Comment: This account is in general supporte d

by conclusio ns which the US Consul General in Hong Kong has drawn
from recent interview s with many refugees from Commun ist China, and
by inf orination from other sources.

NEAR EAST

4. British may misju<!ge conserva tive Iranian attitude on oil:

I .

US Ambassa dor Grady, in reviewin g Anglo- 3.3(h)(2)

Iranian OU ~ompany "past differenc es" with
the US Embassy in Tehran, stated on 18 April
that "those differenc es were only with regard
to the policies of the company which have led them close to disastero "
Grady reports that the most conserva tive Iranian leaders hold a far
more extreme attitude toward nationali zation than the AIOC and the
British Foreign Office realizeo

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Com men t: The AIOC has long exe rcis ed con-

Us own poli cies , which
side rabl e influ ence in Iran while it carr ied out
pres ent cris is the
have at time $ been som ewh at high -han ded. . In thea:nd that iinanci,a.1
com pany app ears to thin k that time is on it$ side rien t to· acce pt the
pres sure will even tual ly forc e the Iran ian qov erm hew hole been
on·t
com pan y's term s. The company has, how ever , has trea ted them
libe ral in its poli cies tow ard Iran ian wor kers and
t in Iran. It is
fair ly when judged by labo r cond ition s as they exis .acc epta nce of the
obv ious that any con cess ion at this time sho rt of ent· cris is.
prin cipl e of-n atio nali zati on will not solv e the pres

iet fish erie s~

5. Iran ians , prop ose nati onal izat ion of Iran ian- Sov
Iran ian Prim e Min iste r Ala has info rme d US3 -3(h)(2)
Am bass ado r Gra dy that Parl iam ent plan s to
nati onal ize the Cas pian fish erie s on exp irati on
of the Sov iet conc ~ssi on in Sep tem ber 1952.
subj ect and will intr o-
Sev eral depu ties are now draw ing up a bUl on this
duce it shor tly in Parl iam ent.
Comment:. The Cas pian fish erie s are owned
each gov ernm ent
join tly by the Iran ian and So'Yiet Gov ernm ents with t in theo ry perm it
trac
holding 50% of the shar es. The term s of the con it does not wish to
if
the Iran ian Gov ernm ent to disE:mlve the company ld then be divi ded betw een
· rene w the con trac t; the company~ s asse t$ wou
dom inat ed the fish erie s
the two gov ernm ents . In prac tice the USSR has a stro ng poss ibili ty of
and has enjo yed mos t of thei r prof its. The re is
sinc e Sov iet secu rity
Soviet opp osit ion to the nati onal izat ion measure))
inte rest s in the Cas pian Sea are involved.
• While the prop osed bill to nati onal ize the
the curr ent feve r in
company mig ht be inte rpre ted as an exte nsio n of ld not be com pare d
Iran for nati onal izat ion of fore ign indu stry , it shoq an Oil Company,
;ani
with the move for nati onal izat ion of the Ang lo-b rath er than when the
which is env isag ed as taki ng plac e imm edia tely
con trac t exp ires in 1993.

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6. Conditions in Afghanistan deteriorating: ~', ·: 3.3(h)(2)

Comment: ,Anti-Pakistan propaganda

advocating the formation of an independent tribal state of Pushtoonistan
on the western boundary of Pakistan has been used in the past to inflame
Afghan opinion and to take the peopleis minds off the country's internal
problem so If conditions actually areideteriorating within· the country,
there is little likelihood that Afghanistan. will agree to drop its propa-
ganda campaign preparatory to holding talks with Pakistan, as suggested
by the US on 6 November 1950 in an attempt to settle the outstanding
differences between the two countries. Preliminary talks held at
Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan in mid-April have already bro~en down
because of disagreement on this issueo It appears unlikely, therefore,
that more formal conversations will take place in the near future.

''
EASTERN EUROPE

7..- Anti-Soviet riot follows killings in Polang: 3.3(h)(2)

~ - - - - - - - - ~
ave informed the
US Embassy in Warsaw of a riot in Stettin
on 9 April fallowing th~ J;cilling on the street 3.3(h)(2)

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of two Polish civilians by a Soviet officer. As a result, a crowd

collected and stoned the Russian~ who, after killing three more Poles,
sought refuge in a nearby cellar. Polish militiamen present,_pr essed
by the crowd to shoot the Russian, refused; the crowd, incensed, shouted
that the militia could aind did use a1rms against· Poles, but could not do so
against a Russian murderer. In a show of force, the militiamen fired
into the air; the people thereupon attacked the militiamen , killing at
least three and wounding others. The demonstraU en ·was ·quelled by the
Army, which, surrounded the area and arrested some· twe thousand per-
sons. The US Embassy observes that, because of the complete control
exercised by the Polish authorities , :no rumors of this ·incident are
current in Warsaw.

Comment: Previous reports of unrest and

labor difficulties in the Stettin area ha:ve been received. One report
alleges that ethnic Germans in the area are ca.using difficulties ; a
second report states that a dock strike occurred in stettin in February
as a spontaneou s demonstrat ion against the shi ment of oods to the
USSR. L.-----..--.-.- ----------.---- ..-------.--.-- ---::;;;---.---- -.~--;-.----;;; ;:--;-;;-~~ 3. 3( h) (2)
elemen s o e population were to be deported from the Polish-USSR
border and transported to the Stettin area; the presence of such disaf-
fected elements undoubtedly contributes to difficulties in this area.

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a. WFTU transfers us headquarters to Vienna;, 3.3(h)(2) \\\ ;, .

.J

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The Communist =dominated World Federation
of Trade Unions has decided to locate its head,-
quarters in Vienna~ following the French Govern-
ment order di,solving the internation al
headquarte rs in Paris. The federation s secretariat declares that Vienna
was chosen because of its favorable location a:nd the "cordial welcome
which the Austrian workers are sure to give the federation. " The
Viennese Communist paper calls the developmen t a "great distinction"
and "moral aicW for Austrian workers who, it is sure, -will do all
possible to show themselves worthy of the high honor.

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Comment~ The transfer of this Commun ist-

.· front organl1,ation to Vienna may make additiona l difficulti es for the
Austrian Governm ent, which is already under pressure from labor and
from Soviet interfere nce with the Austrian police, and which is
threatene d with strikes and Commun ist youth demonstr ations.

LA TIN AMERICA

9. Junta may take over Bolivian Goyerpment:

A group of Bolivian army officers has 3.3(h)(2)
reported ly formed a junta which plans to
take over the governm ent by 23 April.
Defense Secretar y Ponce Lozada and
Defense Sub-Secr etary Ballivian are reported to be members of the
junta. which is said to include five officers and five civilians.
3.3(h)(2)

Commen t; Should it appear that the Nation-

alist Revolutio nary Movemen t would poll more votes in tlie 6 May
presiden tial elections than the governm ent-spon sored candidate or
that it would attempt a revolt prior to the elections , a military junta
headed by Ballivian may well take over the governm ent. The junta's
purpose would be to restore order and call for and supervise another
election.. At the present time it seems unlikely that either the
Nationali.$t Revolutio nary Movemen t or the governm ent party will
rece~ve the required absolute majority of votes. It would then be
necessar y for the winner to be selected by the Congress , in which
case the governm ent party, with its allied political groups, should
be able to win.

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