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3.5(c)

- 2 March 1951

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- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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Qffice of Current Intelligence

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AG~NCY

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SUMMARY

GENERAL
3.3(h)(2)

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NEAR EAST
3.3(h)(2)
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~STERN ~UROPE
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.i 3. VS-Iceland defenE?e negotiations progressing (page 4).

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4" Pleven's resignation an anti ... Communist stopgap (page 5).

5. West German Socialists will tqke "popular" neutralization

line (page 5).

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LATIN AMERICA
J 6. Chilean Communists may attempt demonstrations (page 6).

111111 7. Brazilian Foreign Minister promises full cooperation with

US (page 7). '

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3.3(h)(2)
1111 GENERAL

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NEAR EAST 3.3(h)(2)

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3. US~Iceland defense negotiations progressing: fl'~ C

Icelandic Government leaders will

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agree to stationing a peacetime
NATO force of 3900 in Iceland,
3.3(h)(2)

according to Foreign Minister

Benediktsson, who is now negotia-
- ting an agreement for the island's
defense. Iceland wishes to retain the right to authorize any increase
• that might be deemed necess,ary by NATO; it does not wish that
Icelanders initially be included in the force. Furthermore, it de-
I sires to include a provision allowing for termination of the agree-
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ment after six months' consultation, with an additional six months
for evacuation, The form of the agreement is also undetermined
J because the government refuses to accept certain provisions if
they are to be made public; the US Minister assumes that it will
be possible to work out an agreement for submission to the parlia-
ment which would give the government general over-all authority.

Comment: Iceland's acceptance,

of foreign troops in peacetime would constitute the greatest de-
parture from its traditional isolationism since signing the North
Atlantic Treaty. Even if the government stresses that the foreign

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force is primarily for the security of the Keflavik Airport, such an
agreement will be hotly debated in the parliament , and it is only the
public's increased sern;;itivity to Iceland's vulnerabili ty in the absence
of any armed forces of its own which makes such an agreement pos-
sible.

iii 4. Pleven's resignation an anti-Comm unist stopgap: ( ; ,

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A<;cording to a report from the US Embassy in
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Paris, ex-Premie r Pleven prevailed ~m. Presi- 3.3(h)(2)
dent Auriol to acc~pt the Governmen t's resig-
nation as an anti-Comm unist ma:qeuver, By
not risking a second vote of confidence, Pleven avoided a dissolution
of the Assembly and thus postponed at least temporaril y the calling
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of elections under the present electoral law, which favors the Com-
munist Party.
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Comment: In this way, Pleven has side-steppe d
the constitution al provision requiring the formation of an all-party
• caretaker governmen t following a dissolution . He also has given the
Assembly another chancel, to work out a new electoral law, and thus
limit Communist effectivene ss in the GOming 1951 elections. The
problem Qf electoral reform, howev~r, will c;1.ggra,.vate the serious
difficulties involved in forming another governmen t on the basis of
the present Assembly.

5. West German Soci~li~ts will take "~op~lar" neutralizat ion line:

• West German Socialist leader Schumache r

3.3(h)(2)
reportedly has told his: party colleagues
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that in the campaigns for forthcomin g im-
portant elections in the Laender the Socialist Party will take the
"popular line" that unification and neutralizat ion of East and West
Germany, with essential safeguards , are theoretical ly possible,
Schumache r is, however, saict to be personally convinced that the

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. propo sed confe rence of Forei gn Minis ters will not produ ce a uni-
fied Gerrp any but will, on the contra ry, lead only to intens ified
. effort s to integr ate West Germ any into the North Atlan tic defen se
system .
Comm ent: The Socia list Party does not
• believ e in the practi capili ty of a neutra l Germ any and is not openly
advoc ating neutra lity. Howe ver, by acknowledging the theore tical
II possib ility of "neut raliza tion" (i.e,, neutra lity impos ed by the big
power s), the Socia lists hope to win the electo ral suppo rt of those
West Germ ans who fear close r assoc iation with the West. This tac-
• tic could produ ce a degre e of neutra lity sentim ent unfav orable to
US intere sts.
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• LATIN AMERICA

6. Chilea n Comm unists may attem pt demo nstrat ions: ,/ ' .:. .•
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The Comm unist Party of Chile will repor tedly ;--r✓: 7
attem pt a demo nstrat ion again st US Asi;;istant L»-
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Secre tary Mille r when he arriv~ s- in Santia go 3.3(h)(2)

to attend the UN ECOSOC meeti ng now in ses-
J sion.

- Comm ent: Assis tant Secre tary Mille r is

sched uled to be in Santia go March 5,..7 .. The Comm unists can be e;x-
pecte d to use his visit as a spring board for propa ganda and agitat ion
again st the comin g Inter- Amer ican Meeti ng of Forei gn Minis ters
• and in· suppo rt of any Sovie t propa ganda conde mning '' US explo ita-
. tion of Latin Amer ica" at the curre nt UN ECOSOC meeti ng. Con-
tinuin g labor unres t in Chile favor s Comm,unist a itation at this time,
3.3(h)(2)
unist
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demo nstrat ion denouncing the US and Frenc h roles in ECOS
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occur red on 22 Febru ary and was promp tly suppr essed .
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• 7" Brazilian Foreign Minister promises full cooperation with US:

Foreign Minister Neves da Fontoura has

told US Assistant Secretary of State Miller
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that he accepts fully the US point of view
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ing of Inter-American Foreign Ministers and has promised that 3.3(h)(2)
there will be np differences between Brazil and the US at the meet-
Ill ing. Neves also indicated his desire that Brazil send one division
to Korea, but emphasized the need to prepare public opinion for such
a move. Meanwhile, other Brazilian officials, in discussing economic
cooperation, applied "terrific pressure" on Mr. Miller to make a
public statement that 500 million dollars would be forthcoming to
Brazil.

Comment: This report of the Foreign

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Minister's statements is more ontimistic about the nrojpects of

Brazilian, cooperation I The pres- 3.3(h)(2)
sure for a loan of 500 million dollars confirms previous informa-
tion indicating that Brazil's cooperation will be on a quid pro quo
basis.

This is the first indication that Brazil

would like to send a division to Korea. Only a few months ago,
Brazilian military officials and former Foreign Minister Fernandes
asserted that Brazil could not me~t the reql.lire:i,nents of the Unified
Cornman~ for troops sent to Korea.

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