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14 April 1951.

3.3(h)(2)
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- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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3.5(c)
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3.5(c)
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• Office of Current mtelllgence

• CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

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3.5(c)

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SUMMARY

USSR

1. Collective farms buying milk in order to meet deliveries under the plan
(page 3).

FAR EAST

2. Sino-Viet Minh action predicted (page 4).

NEAR EAST

3. Iranian Prime Minister anxious about current situation (page 5).

3.3(h)(2)
EASTERN EUROPE

WESTERN EUROPE

5. Possiqle intensificat ion of Soviet effort to weaken Austrian polic"e (page 7).

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USSR
3.3(h)(2)
1. Qollectiye farms hu.Y1iw milk in order to meet deuyerJes vuder the pJm; v

Comment; CoJlective farms deliver their

produce to the Ministry of Procurem ent, which in turn allots it to con- v
sumers, including cooperat ive stores. In this case, the farnu~-wouid
have ha4 to buy more than twice the amount of milk they produce and
then turn it over to the State, in order to meet deliverie s under the plan.
This practice (which may be an isolated instance) produces plan ful- _ (h)( )
fillment on paper, despite inadequate supplies. 33 2

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FAR EAST .,; rt

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2. Sino-Viet Minh action predicted; ,, 3.3(h)(2)

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Viet Mmh plans to launch a limited offensive
before 20 April against the rnorthern Une of
the Fre:nch defense perimeter in Tonkin.
The attacking force will include 21 000
Chinese Communist troops and will attempt
to cut French supply lines. Other action,
probably in the nature of feints~ will be undertakern west of Hanoi an.d along
the Tonkin coast. 3.3(h)(2)

Me~u.11wh.ile~ French officers in northwest

Tonkin have told the US Military Attache that the column which crossed
the northwest border two weeks ago consists of one battalion of trained
Chinese troops, which are either provincial or regular Chinese Communist
forces or Chinese Nationalists retreating before Chinese Communist forces.
Elements of a Viet Minh regiment have been identified nearby, and the
US Military Attache is therefore inclirned to interpret the incursion as
part of a joint Chinese Communist= Viet Mioo effort to divert French
troops from th~D-alta defenseso
3.3(h)(2)
Comment~
~--~~hat the Viet Minh is plarninrg a. s~e_r_i_e_s_o~f~m~m-o_r_a_tt_a.._c~k-s_o_n_t~h-e~
northern perimeter of the DeUa~ but mo evidence is available to indicate
definitely that the Chinese CommWAists would commit a small force in a
limited action so near the center of French control in Tonkin. A Chinese
Communist broadcast of 11 April chargi:ng the Fre:nch and puppet troops
with repeated intrusions into Chi:nese territory might be used to justify
the presence of Chinese Commwiri.st troops in Indochina. A joint plan?
which included the threat of Chinese Communist operations in :northwest
Tonkin and was designed to disperse French forces and to affect French
morale, is quite plausible; a French force of more than battalion strength
has already beun transferred by air from the Delta to confront the incursion
across the bordero

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NEAR EAST

3. Iranian Prime Minister anxjous about eprrept suuation; \\ ·v-,

IraniaXll Prim e Mhllister Ala has told US 3.3(h)(2)
Amb assad or Grad y that mem bers of the
MajU s are distu rbed about the curr ent
US-U K discu ssion s in Wash ingto n and fear
solut ion to the
that the US migh t be indu ced to join the UK in forci ng a
and the Irani an
prob lem of oil natio naliz ation . He adde d that the Shah stirr ing
Gove rnme nt are distu rbed by repo rts that· the Briti sh are
far as to su:I?PlY
up tribe s in the south again st Tehraim aimd may evem go so
d rumo rs t ~
them with arms . The gove rnme nt has repo rtedl y also hear
if they think tha.t..._the----.. ·
. the effec t that the Briti .sh may se~ troop s into Abad an
Ala state d tha t~
oil comp any's prop ertie s are iim dang er. Prim e Mini ster
USSR to move
such actio n migh t serv e as an ~appropriate excu se for the
Amb assad or Grad y
into Azer baija n unde r the 1921 USSR=Iranian treat y.
ent diffi culti es,
outli nes what he belie ves to be the UK solutio:n to the pres Zia as Prim e
(i. e, , disso lutio n of the M;:tjlis, the appo intm e~t of Seyid
od whil e the oil
Mini ster, and gove rnme nt by decr ee for aim i:n~ futte pe:ri. ld be dis-
shou
issue is settle d) and state s that radic al poliU cal mov es
he is maki ng.
cour aged as long as Ala conti nues to make the prog ress .
Comme!llt. For some time~ the Irani an
ern tribe s)pa rti- ✓

Gove rnme nt has feare d Briti sh intri gue amon g the south olida te its
cula rly beca use the UK has tradiUoD1a1.ly attem pted to cons prote ction
onal
posit ion with these once -inde pend ent tribe s as an addiU 3.3(h)(2)
for its oil insta l~tio nso

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3.3(h)(2)
EASTERN EUROPE

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WESTERN EUROPE , r -
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5. Possible intensification of soviet effort tQ weaken Austrian paUce: . 3.3(h)(2)

Camroent; , Soviet attem pts to neutra lize

or contro l Austr ian police office rs, partic ularly those in Vienna, have
been intens ified in -recen t months. The sudde n dismi ssals of Comm unisttunity
police in late· 'March afford ed the Sovie t eleme nt with an excel lent oppors,
for an attem pt to intimi date or "pack " the east ·zone police. Such effort
however, have occur red perio4 ically during the Soviet occupation and this
latest attem pt is proba bly .ic.partof a long-r ange Soviet effort , rathe r than
one aimed at precip itating , an imme diate showdown with the gover nmen t.

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