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24 March 1951
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• Copy No. e1 -4 (fffe

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CUMENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO. . ':tI,.-, - ...,~.,.
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OATE.J. -I} ""!..~EVIEWEA: 3.5(c)

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3.5(c)
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Office of Current Intelligence
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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• 3.5(c)

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Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 C02733108
 Approved for Release: 2019/03/14 C02733108
,.,.. . ..... 3.5(c)

- SUMMARY

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GENERAL

l. Deputy Foreign Ministers' meeting approaches crucial stage (page 3).

-. 2. -Increase in Satellite military strength reported (page 3).

FAR EAST
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3.3(h)(2)
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4. Bao Dai resigns himself to French domination (page 4) •
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• NEAR EAST

• 3.3(h)(2)
6. Egyptian Government concerned over Iranian developments (page 5) .
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• LATIN AMERICA

7. Arg~ntina' s attitude makes Hemisphere Defense Plan unacceptable to

• Brazil (page 6) .

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3.5(c)

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- GEN ERA L

1. Deputy Fore ign Min iste rs' mee ting apE roac
hes cruc ial stage~
• ;;(h )( 2)
Dur ing an info rma l disc ussi on wUh the

- Wes tern dele gate s on 22 Mar ch, Sov iet Dele~

gate Gro myk o plai nly indi cate d that his pres ent
inst ruct ions wer e defi nite on the nece ssity of
and of incl udin g the
emp hasi zing the redu ctio n of arm ame nts ques tion item . ( He indi cate d
• da
Ger man dem ilita riza tion poin t as a sepa rate agen incl udin g the latt er
e to
for the firs t time , how ever , that he mig ht agre
• firs t agen da item .) The Wes tern
poin t as the seco nd rath er than the
, iet posi tion rega rdin g
both of tbes e itemso
dele gate s reje cted the Sov ✓
ld mak e any new prop osal s
• Gro myk o aske d repe atec C~h ethe r the Wes t wou
tive ly, the Brit ish and
and, alth ough the Wes tern dele gate s repl ied nega on the Ger man dem ili=
ula
Fren ch dele gate s hint ed at a poss ible new form Gro myk o has not yet
up's opin ion,
• tari zati on item . In US dele gate Jess
ctat ion of som e Wes tern
said his fina l wor d but is hold ing fast in the expe 3.3(h)(2)
con cess ions .
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2. lns, reas e in Sate llite mili tary stre ngth r eported:&-
. r' .---
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(~v
The Mar ch Imm inen ce of Hos tilit ies Con fr3·3(~., /
ence of the US Mil itary For ces in Eur ope
• has reac hed the conc lusi on that an anal ysis of
all avai labl e fact ors does not indi cate any
n. The con fere es agreed~
imm inen t hos tilit ies on the par t of the Sov iet Unio of the Sate llite arm ies
• how ever , that cont inui ng incr ease s in the stre ngth
raft in a Sate llite air forc e
and the app eara nce, for the firs t time , of jet airc ies are beco min g a
bilit
• (i.e. Pola nd) reve al that Sate llite offe nsiv e capa nt. The y poin ted to the
sign ifica nt fact or in the Eas t-W est pow er alig nme mili tary stre ngth in

- following sign ifica nt incr ease s in Sov iet/S atel lite For ces in Ger man y
Europe~ (a) an incr ease of 30,000 in Sov iet Gro
betw een Feb ruar y 1950 and Mar ch 1951 ; (b) an
und
esti mat ed incr ease in

- Cze ch arm y stre ngth from 116,000 to approxim

ately_ 160,000 duri ng the

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next two months~ (c) the addition of a tank division to the Hungarian army;
and (d) the growth of the Rumanian army from 19<?i.000 to. 205,000. The
conference noted that the reported arrival of 40 Soviet YAK=.15 jet fighters
in Poland marks the first appearance of Russian=m ade jets in any European
r

Satellite air force .

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3.3(h)(2)-
FAR EAST /,,,
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4. Bao Dai resigns himself to French dominatio~: ;,_/
11111 I

. . . B 3.3(h)(2)
In an interview wd:h US Minister Heath,6 ao .·
Dai described General ]2)e Lattre as a ~neces~ ✓-
• sary evil,'' whose mililary leadership is
indispensab le but whose authority will not
• lead to a solution of French-Vie tnamese problems. The Emperor believes 1
that it would be useless to press for Vietnamese control ove:r Vietnam s
armed forces at this time and that De Lattre's conception of Bao Dai's
• role is that of a ''protector ship sovereign, '' on the order of the Sultan of

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Morocco. Bao Dai observed that the arrangeme nts being made for th.E~
defection of as many as 15,000 Viet Minh troops in a body will probably
fail, because De Lattre is likely to insist that they surrender directly
to French authorities rather than to Bao Dai == a condition that would
be unacceptab le to the potential defectors. The Emperor states that he
must therefore n efface himself'' and make no ~ g compromis ing'' public
appearance s at this time .
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Heath comments that, while Bao Dai is pro=
• bably right in believing that he cannot successfull y resist the tendency
of De Lattre' s advisors to maintain Vietnam as a closed preserve of the

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3.5(c)

aw to his hill -sta tfon head=

Fre nch , the ~r or 's dec isio n to wit hdr
at."
qua rter s at Dal at is ~ 'too eas ily arri ved

- NEA R EAST
,/
3.3(h)(2)

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• Com men t: Hus sein Ala was relu ctan t to
he has gat her ed tog eth er is a
. bec ome Pri me Min iste r and the cab ine t
stil l vac ant, While· the Com=
weak one, .:with som e of the crit ica l pos ts imp lica ted eith er in Raz mar a~s
mu nist s in Iran do not see m to hav e bee n
ori sm , they hav e beg un to ex=
dea th or in sev era l sub seq uen t act s of terr tion aliz atio n and anU~•Western
• -na
plo it the pre sen t situ atio n by inci ting pro a link ing the US to Raz mar a~ s
and
dem ons trat ion s and by spr ead ing pro pag
ass3 :ssi nati on .

• Iran ian developments~ 3.3(h)(2)

6. Egy ptia n Gov ern men t con cer ned ove r
<;a,,iro,
• Acc ord ing to US Am bas sad or Caf fery in gly v
sfin
top pol itic al circ les in Egy pt are inc rea fery
con cer ned ove r dev elop men ts in Iran . Caf
• rep orts that , whi le gov ern men t offi cial s
are
y, they and opp osit ion lea der s are
incl ined to bla me the Bri tish ~IT com pan
t the Mo slem Bro the rho od wil l re=
• ::.genuinety- ala rme d at the pos sibi lity tha
und er the gui dan ce of the Commu=
vive ass ass ina tion -typ e pol itic s, which, der s, Caf fery add s tha t Egy ptia n

- nis ts, it would dire ct aga inst Egy ptia n lea

pol itic al lea der s do not know how to dea
l wit h this situ atio n.

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Comment~ Rec ent eve nts in Iran will hard ly

• s~ the .exp.anding acti viti es
lead to pub lic viol enc e in Egypt, Nev erth eles r, its incr eas ed diss atis -
yea
of the Mo slem Bro ther hoo d dur ing the pas t
long =ter m anti path y. again.st fore ign
• fact ion with the gov ernm ent, and its
for con cern that it mig ht use
infl uen ce in Egy pt furn ish an ade qua te bas is
viti es. in EgypL
this opp ortu nity to resu me its terr oris t acti
•
-• LAT IN AM ERI CA

7. Arg enti na's attit ude mak es Hem isph er~_ Pefe nse
Pla n una ccep tabl e to

. Bra zil

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3.3(h)(2)
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• Com men t Arg.entine relu ctan ce to sen d
s not prec lude som e Argentine
arm ed forc es outs ide its own terr itor y doe
lane s, alth oug h it cou ld not
• patr ol acti vity along the South Atla ntic sea
ld be des ired , Bra zili an,
e;x.tend so far from Arg enti na's coa st as wou
with the pro pos ed plan s for
and pos sibl y Uru gua yan , fail ure to go alon g
dete rren t to the spee dy and
• inte r-A mer ican defe nse would be an add ed Min iste rs Me etin g)n whi ch v,.,
suc cess ful con clus ion of the com ing For eign how eve r, that Bra zil is not
. thes e plan s will be disc usse d, It is pos sibl
e,
an For eign Min iste r had
con tem plat ing suc h acti on and that the Bra zili mor e US nav al unit s for
get
ado pted the abo ve pos itio n in an atte mpt to
• Bra zil,

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