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Kiszámíthatatlan Idők Előrejelzése: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Kiszámíthatatlan Idők Előrejelzése: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Az elemzés a Magyar Nemzeti Bank 2022. márciusi Inflációs jelentése alapján készült.
Várnai Tímea, a Magyar Nemzeti Bank vezető közgazdasági szakértője.
E-mail: varnait@mnb.hu
A kézirat 2022. április 11-én érkezett szerkesztőségünkbe.
https://doi.org/10.47630/KULG.2022.66.3-4.51
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Várnai Tímea
Abstract
Magyar Nemzeti Bank: Forecasting unpredictable times
TÍMEA VÁRNAI
The recovery from the Covid-19 crisis led to the highest GDP growth rate since 1977 last
year. The economy expanded by 7.1 per cent in 2021, and the labour market approached full
employment by the end of the year, making it the fastest recovery in the post-World War II years
overall. The crisis management programmes of Magyar Nemzeti Bank and the Hungarian go-
vernment, which supported a wide range of economic actors, contributed significantly to this
growth. In addition, the rapid economic opening of lockdowns in the spring allowed for a faster
recovery in consumption, thanks to an early and broad-based domestic vaccination. In the exter-
nal environment, the uneven growth of supply and demand caused frictions in global production
chains and commodity markets, leading to a series of cost shocks. The positive economic trends
at the end of last year have continued into the beginning of this year, and the domestic economy’s
growth potential is strong.
However, the expansion of economic activity in the coming quarters will be slowed by the
Russian-Ukrainian war and the resulting sanctions through a number of channels. The uncer-
tainty is significant, as the size of the economic impact of the war is highly dependent on the
length and the timing of the war and sanctions policies. The significant slowdown in Hungary’s
export markets and exports is mainly due to difficulties in foreign trade and international pro-
duction chains. While business investments are slowed by higher uncertainty and rising business
operating costs, the investment rate remains high. Household consumption will be promoted this
year both by rising real wages, despite increasing inflation, and by government measures to ramp
up household incomes.
The surge in energy and raw material prices last year has led domestic companies to reprice
their products at the beginning of 2022 at a higher rate than previously. With another substantial
jump in energy and commodity prices, the war has caused another significant cost shock to infla-
tion, which will continue to go up in the short term and postpone its decline. We expect the start
of the decline in the inflation rate to be delayed to the second half of 2022, as the market shock
from the war eases and inflation moderates due to the expected correction in commodity prices.
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Magyar Nemzeti Bank: Kiszámíthatatlan idők előrejelzése
Anchoring inflation expectations at levels consistent with the inflation target will play a crucial
role in achieving price stability after the repeated price shocks fade out.
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Várnai Tímea
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Magyar Nemzeti Bank: Kiszámíthatatlan idők előrejelzése
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Várnai Tímea
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Magyar Nemzeti Bank: Kiszámíthatatlan idők előrejelzése
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