The Report is Generated by DrillBit Plagiarism Detection Software

Submission Information

Author Name Kunal

Title Major Project
Paper/Submission ID 478709
Submission Date 2022-03-25 17:14:54
Total Pages 35
Document type Project Work

Result Information

Similarity 14 %
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Sources Type Report Content

Quotes
Internet
0.11%
2.2%

Journal/
Publicatio Words <
n 10.06% 14, 4.0%

Exclude Information

Quotes Not Excluded

References/Bibliography Not Excluded
Sources: Less than 14 Words Similarity Not Excluded
Excluded Source 0%
Excluded Phrases Not Excluded

A Unique QR Code use to View/Download/Share Pdf File

DrillBit Similarity Report

A-Satisfactory (0-10%)
B-Upgrade (11-40%)

14 35 B C-Poor (41-60%)
D-Unacceptable (61-100%)
SIMILARITY % MATCHED SOURCES GRADE

LOCATION MATCHED DOMAIN % SOURCE TYPE

1 Research on the Impact of COVID19 on Global Economy by Mou-2020 Publication

5

2 link.springer.com Internet Data

2

3 sgp.fas.org Publication
1

4 Regionalization of Textile Trade Evidence from the EU, NAFTA, AFTA, Publication
1
and SAPTA by Tsang-2008

5 Current issues in non-timber product researchby M Ruiz-Prez JEM Publication

1
Arnold by Revie-1997

6 Is There a Role for Statisticians in Pay Equity by George-1997 Publication

<1

7 Seasonal Behavior of Components in the CPI by -1967 Publication

<1

8 Resource Use Efficiency Analysis for Potato Production in Nepal by Publication

<1
Sapkota-2018

9 SOME MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE Publication

<1
VALUEADDED TAX RESULTS FROM AN ECONOMET by
RICHARDS-1989

10 Prevalence Rates and Odds Ratios of Shoulder-Neck Diseases in Publication

<1
Different Occupati by M-1987

11 Nowcasting Real GDP Growth Comparison between Old and New EU Publication
<1
Countries by Koenda-2020
12 Managing a great power relationship The United States, China and East Publication
<1
Asian sec by Carpenter-1998

13 Green synthesis and characterization of Zinc Ferrite (ZnFe2O4) Publication

<1
nanocomposite via by Fabiani-2020

14 COVID-19 and the Skin by Catal-2020 Publication

<1

15 www.euacademic.org Publication
<1

16 www.amity.edu Internet Data

<1

17 www.ijtarp.org Publication
<1

18 www.epw.in Publication
<1

19 www.ejist.ro Publication
<1

20 Metalliferous sediments in the Atlantis II DeepAssessing the geological Publication

<1
and eco by Christin-2011

21 IEEE 2016 International Symposium on Power Electronics, Electrical , Publication

<1
by Marjani, Jafar Ima- 2016

22 www.sciencedirect.com Internet Data

<1

23 www.dx.doi.org Publication
<1

24 www.cnbc.com Internet Data

<1

25 The Ends of Life Roads to Fulfillment in Early Modern England By Publication

<1
Keith Thomas by Reth-2011

26 Practice research enabler Enabling research in a social work practice by Publication

<1
Miller-2018

27 Magnetite-based adsorbents for sequestration of radionuclides a review Publication

<1
by Husnain-2018
28 Growth vs basic needs Is there a trade-off by Norma-1979 Publication
<1

29 From farm to table The food system in postcommunist Russia by Publication

<1
Wegren-1996

30 Ethnography in Todays World Color Full before Color Blind by Publication

<1
RogerSanjekPhil by Bashkow-2016

31 Education statistics for developing countries Priorities and mirages by Publication

<1
Le-1975

32 Cultural risk and management strategy for Chinese enterprises overseas Publication
<1
investme by Dang-2020

33 China, the Interdependent Giant, and the Global Economic Crisis by Publication
<1
Moore-2013

34 A forensic pathologists view on the usage of the Taser Axon Flex camera Publication
<1
on-s by Franckenberg-2014

35 etd.aau.edu.et Publication
<1
 1

Major Project

ON
“IMPACT OF COVID 19 ON GLOBAL ECONOMY”

BY

KUNAL GAHLOT
A3104619220

B.Com (Hons.) 2019-22

8
Under the Supervision of

DR. SEEMA GUPTA

In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of

Bachelors in Commerce (Hons.)

AT

AMITY COLLEGE OF COMMERCE AND FINANCE

16
AMITY UNIVERSITY UTTAR PRADESH
SECTOR 125, NOIDA - 201303, UTTAR PRADESH, INDIA
 2

Abstract
With the advancement of cosmopolitanism and globalization, dense population and
large-scale population movement not only strengthen the economy but also
accelerate the spread of disease. It has never been seen before. COVID-19 has
wreaked havoc on China's economy and is rapidly spreading throughout the world.
The disease's progression and economic consequences are highly unpredictable. Due
to the virus's high infectivity, fatality, and incubation period, the primary preventive
strategies focus on reducing social distance and isolation, which renders many
economic activities difficult. Global GDP will decline by up to 3%, while
underdeveloped countries will be severely impacted, losing up to 4% on average,
although some countries lost more than 6%, and world commercial commerce will
9
collapse by 13% in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This article examines
the macroeconomic impact of the novel coronavirus on global GDP, merchandise
32
trade (using China as a case study for other nations), and numerous industries, and
makes some recommendations for countermeasures.
 3

CHAPTER-1
 4

Introduction
Covid-19 is rapidly spreading around the world. It is not a coincidence that the new coronavirus was
discovered in Wuhan, China, near the end of 2019. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that the
coronavirus virus would cohabit with humans to an extendeperiodme. The emergence of COVID-19
has wreaked havoc on the global economy. Dutoof the disease's high infectivity, fatality, and
incubation period, the primary preventive strategies focus on reducing social distance and isolation,
which renders many economic activities difficult. The COVID-19 will alter the global economy's
macroeconomic environment in terms of aggregate demand and total supply, labor income, and
financial market trading. The disease's evolution and economic impact are very unknown. However,
before infectious diseases were not viewed as having a significant economic impact.

According to the WTO's annual Trade Outlook released on 8 April, world merchandise trade will
5
contract by between 13% and 32% in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic. According to WTO
economists, the decline will very certainly exceed the trade downturn caused by the global financial
crisis of 2008-09. Trade is anticipated to contract even further, particularly in electronics and
19
automobiles. The services sector will also be severely hit, as a result of transportation and travel
13
limitations, as well as the closure of numerous retail and hotel enterprises. According to Maliszewska
et al., 2020, global GDP will fall by up to 3%, while poor nations will be severely hit, losing up to 4%
on average, but up to 6.5 percent in some cases (Maliszewska et al., 2020) [1].
29
This research will examine the global macroeconomic impact of the novel coronavirus, using China as
a case study to examine the impact on three major industries and World Trade solutions.
 5

BACKGROUND OF STUDY
According to the October 2021 report, global economic growth slowed to roughly -3.2 percent on an
annualized basis in 2020, before rebounding to 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.

Additionally, the IMF found that advanced economies will continue to experience economic issues
5
through 2022 as a result of supply constraints and that prospects for low-income developing
economies had "darkened significantly" as a result of discrepancies in vaccination access and
economic policy assistance. As a result of its repercussions on emerging countries, the pandemic-
related recession is being defined as more global in scope than the global financial crisis of 2009–
7
2010. The IMF recently forecasted that geographic regions of the global economy will recover at
varying rates, reflecting variances in vaccination rates, the level of policy support, and various
structural conditions, including the economy's reliance on tourism.

Various significant economic and financial indices had recovered from the depths of the pandemic-
3
related economic crisis by late October 2021, albeit not all sectors of the global economy had
recovered to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.

Additionally, a return of viral cases and therefore the appearance of the latest, more deadly strains
of the COVID-19 virus prompted some organizations to decrease their economic process estimates
for 2021 in late 2021. 19 While vaccination rates climbed in several industrialized economies, most
notably the United States, developing economies struggled to gain access to vaccinations and to
vaccinate their populations, and therefore to restore their economy to pre-pandemic levels of
operation. Financial market indices had largely recovered from March and April 2020 losses,
international oil prices had surpassed pre-pandemic levels, pressure on the dollar to understand had
generally reduced, and labor markets appeared to be recovering.

By fall 2021, just before the conclusion of pandemic-related unemployment assistance in the United
States, it appeared as though US and European consumers had adapted to pandemic constraints by
relying on unemployment benefits, personal savings, and credit to support their consuming
activities.
4
In general, personal consumption expenditures grew and decreased in response to the virus's spread
25
and partial business closures., including housing, food, energy, and new and used cars and trucks,
which were constrained by supply shortages. As a result, September consumer and producer prices
26
in the United States increased at monthly rates of 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, or
annual rates of more than 4.8 percent and 6.0 percent.

Long-term, labor market damage could be troublesome, with a sizable portion of the workforce
7 30
unable or unable to return to pre-pandemic jobs in several sectors. Workers who were laid off during
7
the crisis reportedly reconsidered returning to their jobs in certain instances.
 6
3
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, August 3, 2020, 16 Job Retention
Schemes During the COVID-19 Lockdown and Beyond

17 International Monetary Fund, October 2021 World Economic Outlook Update, p. 6. The COVID-19
Pandemic: A Geographical Atlas. Eric Platt and Colby Smith, Economists Cut Forecasts, Investors Get
Nervous About the Delta Variant, Financial Times, August 19, 2021.

COVID-19's Economic Impact on the World Congress Research Service 5 previous occupations and
2
were considering other opportunities, which might affect the economic recovery's speed. 21
10
Employment in the child-care sector in the United States was reported to be down more than
137,000 workers in August 2021 compared to March 2020 levels, contributing to the exclusion of 1.6
3
million women who are mothers of children under the age of 17 from the labor force. 22 Similarly,
economies may incur long-term costs as a result of children being excluded from in-person schooling
for more than a year, resulting in inferior academic performance and graduation rates, as well as
28
delayed entry into the job market. On March 31, 2021, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of
20
the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that an emerging market debt crisis might arise as
the global economy recovers and interest rates increase, resulting in capital outflows from
developing economies.

NEED AND SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

We have to study about covid because due to covid19 all the nations like US,

JAPAN, INDIA ETC.. are got backward.

24 21
These 2 to 3 years are bad for the global economy as the result they are not able to

grow more in this pandemic, as it was unexpected.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1. Unequal Vaccines Access

2. Are countries ready to deploy vaccines?

3. Uneven Global Recovery.

4. Rising Debt Levels Amid the Pandemic

5. High Energy Prices Fueling Rise in Other Commodity Costs

 7

CHAPTER-2
 8

LITERATURE REVIEW

COVID-19's Economic Impact on the World

2.1. The new COVID-19's effect on GDP in different nations
The COVID-19 pandemic is qualitatively distinct from previous recessionary triggers. Infections eat
away at the available labor force. The virus is typically contained through quarantines, regional
lockdowns, and social isolation. Disrupting supply networks and reducing productivity are two
5
consequences of workplace closures. People spend less as a result of job losses, income drops, fear of
contagion, and increased uncertainty, resulting in additional firm closures and employment losses. All
of these factors contribute to the economic collapse of a sizable sector of the economy (IMF).
Through commerce and the global value chain, these local disturbances spread to trading partners.
COVID-19's impact on the world economy is more severe than that of the Great Depression in 2008.
According to the IMF, the globe will lose $9 trillion in US dollars, which is equivalent to Japan's and
14
Germany's GDPs and six times that of South Korea. The novel coronavirus has had the following
effect on GDP in various countries:

GDP growth 2008 2009 2019 2020 2021

rate
World 3 -0.1 2.9 -3 5.8
China 9.7 9.4 6.1 1.2 9.2
Japan -1.1 -5.4 0.7 -5.2 3
Korea 3 0.8 2 -1.2 3.4
United States -0.1 -2.5 2.3 -5.9 4.7
ASEAN-5 5.4 2.5 4.8 -0.6 7.8
European Union 0.9 -4.2 1.7 -7.1 4.8
Africa 4.5 3.2 3.2 -1.7 4.6

Table 1 COVID-19's economic impact on the global economy in comparison to the 2009 economic
crisis (percent)

11
As shown in Table 1, the global GDP was reduced by only 0.1 percent in 2009 owing to the economic
crisis, but by 3 percent in 2020 due to climate change. Economic growth is negative in all of the
countries listed save China, but even then, China's economic growth is 4.8 percent lower than the IMF
34
forecast prbeforehe outbreak in January. The EU will have the greatest negative impact, at 7.1%,
followed by the US at 5.9% and Japan at 5.2 percent.
 9

2.2. Consequences for commerce

8
According to data from the Korea trade association, the COVID-19 epidemic has wreaked havoc on
4
global commodity commerce. As an illustration, consider China's impact on imports and exports with
1
Korea, Japan, and the United States, as shown in Table 2.

It demonstrates that China's imports and exports to the United States, South Korea, and Japan were all
33
negative in the first quarter. The largest import and export growth rates in March, in particular, are -
23.54 percent and -36.47 percent respectively. China's largest import growth rate was -17.91 percent
1
in April, while its largest export growth rate was -13.01 percent in February. Japan's largest export
growth rate in February was -47.02 percent while import growth was -8.75 percent in March.

Table 2 Growth rate of commodity trade between China and other countries
Trade amount and
growth rate 2020 2019 2020 2019
Year
Countries Month Import volume Growth Export volume Growth
rate rate
3 7,971,890 10,426,534 - 19,805,426 31,175,673-36.47%
23.54%
United 2 6,815,003 8,433,552 - 22,813,059 33,194,398-31.27%
States 19.19%
1 7,215,277 7,134,336 1.13% 33,280,571 41,603,831-20.01%
Japan 3 11,072,992 12,134,768 -8.75% 13,316,389 13,935,852 -4.45%
2 10,565,088 10,599,601 -0.33% 6,265,724 11,826,917
-
47.02%
1 8,338,718 8,910,999 -6.42% 16,144,501 17,103,441 -5.61%

4 10,203,532 12,429,814 - 9,616,908 9,793,054 -1.80%

17.91%
3 10,684,398 11,442,781 -6.63% 8,949,028 8,804,782 1.64%
Korea 2 8,827,088 9,532,194 -7.40% 5,552,953 6,383,455 -
13.01%
1 9,645,824 10,836,336 - 9,424,173 10,338,825 -8.85%
10.99%
/
12 1
Both import and export volumes between China and the United States of America, Japan, and Korea
declined in the first quarter of this year, as illustrated in Figures 1 and 2.
 10

4
Import of China from the USA, Export amount of China from the USA,
Japan, and Korea in the past Japan and
two quarters (thousand USD) Korea
15000000
in the past two quarters (thousand USD)
10000000 45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
5000000 25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
0 5000000
USA Japan Korea 0
USA Japan Korea
10 11 12 1 2 3
10 11 12 1 2 3
Fig. 1 Import volume of China in the past two-quarters Fig.2 Export volume of China in the past two
quarters

11 4
As the import and export charts demonstrate, imports in the first quarter of 2020 were much lower
1
than in the fourth quarter of last year. China reached the most severe phase of the disease on January
23 with the lockdown of Wuhan, and exports decreased precipitously. Japan's exports decreased by
61%. As the virus got more severe in the United States, it fell precipitously in February and March,
whereas Korea and Japan recovered modestly as the outbreak eased.

3. The Three Industries' Impact on COVID-19

3.1. Impact on primary industry With the epidemic still active in many countries, the primary
industry's impact will be exacerbated further. The United States euthanized animals, discarded milk,
and repeated other episodes of economic misery. Germany drank a great deal of beer. Numerous fast-
food establishments are unable of producing even a single hamburger. Due to the epidemic's spread,
agricultural means of production are unable to be transported, feed for livestock and poultry breeding
is unable to enter and exit the market, and mature vegetables are unable to enter, resulting in
vegetables rotting on the ground and livestock slaughtered and buried, resulting in significant losses
and waste (http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1269721/icode/) [3].

3.2. Secondary industry repercussions

Manufacturing is a significant sector of the economy, accounting for about 15% of global GDP in
2018. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the
5
COVID-19 epidemic could result in a 5%–15% decline in worldwide FDI as a result of the
manufacturing sector's decline and factory closures.

As a result of the global COVID-19 outbreak, manufacturers of automobiles, food and beverages,
chemicals, machinery, electrical and electronics, metal, aviation, pharmaceuticals, and airplanes are
concerned about raw material supply. Medical materials have seen an increase in demand in recent
months. According to UN Comtrade’s data analysis, China exported 46.0 percent of all medical masks
and 49.3 percent of all protective clothing in 2018. In 2020, as the epidemic spreads globally, the
products with the highest estimated export value for national defense are primarily medical masks,
disposable hats, medical gloves (plastic materials), ultrasonic CT, medical goggles, protective
 11
clothing, patient monitors, alcohol cotton ball cotton swabs, respirators, and infrared thermometers
(Shen,2020) [4].

3.3. Tertiary industry repercussions

Travel and tourism have been particularly heavily damaged by the COVID-19 outbreak. The tourism
industry in the European Union is projected to be losing approximately €1 billion per month due to the
outbreak. Due to the severity of travel restrictions and the anticipated worldwide recession, the
International Air Transport Association (IATA) anticipates that industry passenger revenues could fall
27
by US$252 billion, or 44%, in 2020. According to statistics from the People's Republic of China's
Ministry of Transport, the Spring Festival Railway transported 210 million passengers in 2020, a year-
on-year decrease of 47.3 percent; highway passengers transported 1.21 billion passengers, a year-on-
year decrease of 50.8 percent; waterway passengers transported 16.89 million passengers, a year-on-
year decrease of 58.6 percent; and civil aviation passengers transported 38.39 million passengers, a
year-on-year decrease of 47.5 percent

However, the popularity of online services has exploded. Telecommuting, online medicine is made
possible by listening to music, exercising, or learning via online courses. Online education is predicted
to reach a market value of more than RMB300 billion yuan in China by 2020. (Zheng et al., 2020) [6].

In a nutshell, the COVID-19 outbreak has hampered the movement of agricultural products from
primary to secondary processing, resulting in losses and wastes. Simultaneously, the secondary
sector's chemical fertilizers and machinery cannot be delivered to farmers, affecting the primary
industry even more. Secondary industry shutdowns or slowdowns have resulted in the tertiary industry
losing transportation. Even if the secondary industry generates goods, a lack of transportation
manpower will prevent those goods from reaching the next step. Due to a shortage of sales personnel
in the tertiary sector, commodities in the primary and secondary sectors move slowly or are wasted.
Additionally, the major industry suffers from the closure of the tourism and catering industries. All
industries will become more constrained as a result of preserving social distance and fewer people
moving. COVID-19 has the following effect on the Three Industries:
 12

COVID-19's effect on three industries is depicted in Figure 3.

1
4. Economic development countermeasures in response to COVID-19

With the ongoing breakout of new cases of coronary pneumonia, the protection trade has intensified,
posing a threat to numerous international organizations. However, to overcome obstacles, countries
must strengthen policy coordination and cooperation, achieve economic stability through economic
rescue and stimulus programs, and avoid the biological crisis escalating into an economic crisis. To
prepare for future epidemics, infrastructure development such as health insurance and artificial
intelligence should be bolstered to identify growth points (Tong, et al., 2020) [7].

4.1. To bolster international collaboration

As a global trade organization, the WTO also engages in other economic activities that promote
human security. Two WTO agreements deal with measures taken by members to safeguard public
health or safety: the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS
Agreement) and the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT Agreement). On April 6, the
leaders of the World Customs Organization (WCO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO)
published a joint statement pledging to collaborate to boost the trade of medical supplies, food,
energy, and other essential resources. Members should increase cooperation to facilitate and simplify
cross-border procedures, particularly those related to exporting and importing critical products to
comply with COVID-19. On 25 March, the United Nations organization released a combined
humanitarian appeal in which the FAO requested $110 million to safeguard the food security of
vulnerable rural people.
18
As Bill Gates stated, the world now more than ever requires WHO. When confronted with adversity,
the globe requires cooperation more than ever. Collaboration would be more effective than acting
alone, as it would have a positive spillover impact through increased commerce and trust. (2020,
Boone).
 13
4.2. To accelerate the construction of infrastructure

Public investment in infrastructure construction encompasses health care, transportation infrastructure,

and climate change. In response to the Asian financial crisis of 1998 and the global economic crisis of
2008, the Chinese government invested heavily in large-scale infrastructure, significantly lowering
transportation costs, increasing resource allocation efficiency across regions, and enhancing the global
competitiveness of made in China. To begin, qualified public investment in health care systems is
important to safeguard individuals and mitigate the risk of future epidemics. Second, new
infrastructures like 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, smart cities, digital economy,
education, and healthcare should supplement existing infrastructures to foster new economic growth
points. (Liao et al., 2020) [9].

4.3. To foster an environment conducive to innovation and reform.

Machines have generated 85 percent of GDP in developed countries. It is critical for developing
countries to stay up with this trend and to increase their innovation and scientific development
capabilities. Logistics has a significant impact on a variety of businesses, and innovation in logistics
technologies such as drones will be critical for future growth. South Korea's government-run car-free
quarantine, as well as automotive movie theatres, continue to innovate and adapt to changing
circumstances, whether in the epidemic prevention or service industries.

5. Conclusion
COVID-19 is rapidly spreading throughout the world. Global GDP will decline by up to 3%, while
underdeveloped nations will be hurt the worst, by up to 4% on average, but some by more than 6%,
and world commercial commerce will collapse by between 13% and 32% in 2020 as a result of the
COVID19 pandemic. To begin, this article analyses the impact of COVID-19 on global GDP to the
economic crisis of 2009, as well as the changes in import and export values caused by China's
epidemiological position with the United States, Japan, and South Korea in the first quarter. Second,
this article discusses the influence of numerous industries to lay the groundwork for future responses.
17
Finally, this study makes some recommendations for dealing with the COVID-19 in the global
economy. To account for the uncertainty surrounding COVID19 pneumonia, this article evaluates the
impact on the economies of various key countries since the start of the epidemic and provides a simple
explanation for commodities trading on a macroeconomic level. A global problem necessitates a
31 35
global response, and global collaboration and cooperation are required not only in the health sector,
but also in commerce, finance, and macroeconomic policy.
 14

CHAPTER-3
 15

METHODOLOGY

DEVELOPMENT OF RESEARCH
The descriptive research format was used to meet the stated aims of this research. A quantitative technique
was used in the investigation. The term "descriptive research" refers to a sort of research in which the
characteristics of the population or sample under investigation are detailed.

COMPILATION OF DATA
Primary sources were used to acquire the data. The major data collection tool was an online questionnaire
meant to assess the impact of artificial intelligence on customer behavior.

COLLECTION METHODS INSTRUMENTS

To collect data for this research article, a questionnaire was used. A questionnaire is a type of research
instrument that consists of a series of questions and possible responses that are printed or typed in order on a
form to elicit specific information from respondents. A questionnaire is a sort of survey used to collect data
from respondents.

DATA COLLECTION METHODOLOGY

22
I created an online questionnaire using Google Forms and distributed it via emails, LinkedIn, and WhatsApp. I
received 200 replies and evaluated them using pie charts and tabulated figures.
 16

CHAPTER-4
 17

Data analysis

A Sneak Peek at the COVID 19 in the World's Top 10 Economic

Powerhouses.
Coronavirus (COV) is a broad term that refers to a variety of animal and human viruses. The majority of
patients who contract the COVID-19 virus develop mild to moderate respiratory disease. According to WHO2
studies, the majority of infected individuals recover without requiring specific treatment. However, in some
cases of this illness, such as older adults with underlying disorders such as heart disease, diabetes, chronic
respiratory disease, or cancer, recovery requires hospitalization and specialized treatment. With certain
medical issues, an infection is more likely to develop into a serious illness. The virus is primarily disseminated
by droplets produced by infected individuals when they cough or sneeze. Table 22 summarises data for all
confirmed and fatal cases of COVID-19 infection COVID-19 data statistics as on date April 23rd, 2020

COVID-19 cases counts

S. no. Country
Confirmed Death

1 United States 839,523 46,583

2 China 83,868 4636

3 Japan 11,512 281

4 Germany 150,648 5279

5 United Kingdom 134,638 18,151

6 France 157,125 21,373

7 India 21,370 681

 18

COVID-19 cases counts

S. no. Country
Confirmed Death

8 Italy 187,327 25,085

9 Brazil 45,757 2906

10 Canada 41,650 2077

from the first reported case to April 22, 2020

Aspects of the World's Top 10 Economic Countries' Gross Domestic

Product (GDP)
Gross domestic product has been standardized as an economic indicator by the United Nations system of
national accounts, which measures a country's total output of all final goods and services produced during a
certain period (either yearly or quarterly). Although it is used to evaluate countries' economic performance,
comparisons are frequently used to measure and analyze countries' living standards, progress, and social
welfare. GDP can be calculated in three ways: using income, using production, or using spending. We
calculated GDP using the spending technique for this research since it is the most appropriate for the data we
6
used. The expenditure technique is used to determine the total expenditure on goods and services by all
entities inside a country's domestic boundaries. In terms of mathematics, GDP is included in the following
manner::

GDPexp.=CG&S+IB+GP&S+NetExport

2
]where CG&S+IB+GP&S denotes total consumer spending on goods and services, IB denotes total investor
spending on business capital goods, GP&S denotes total government spending on public goods and services,
6
and net export denotes the difference between export and import, that is, the difference between export and
import.

NetExport=Export−Import
2
According to statistics from the World Economic Outlook (WEO),34 compiled by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF), this research analyzed and identified the world's top ten largest economies. Apart from the major
economies, these countries are the engine of development, accounting for around 66.49 percent of the global
economy.
 19

table 3

Top 10 world economies of the world with GDP and contribution of world
GDP (%), respectively.

6
Country GDP ($ USD) Share of World GDP (%)

1 United States $20.49 trillion 23.89

2 China $13.61 trillion 15.86

3 Japan $4.97 trillion 5.79

4 Germany $4.00 trillion 4.66

5 United Kingdom $2.83 trillion 3.29

6 France $2.78 trillion 3.24

7 India $2.73 trillion 3.18

8 Italy $2.07 trillion 2.4

9 Brazil $1.87 trillion 2.18

10 Canada $1.71 trillion 1.99

Consumer spending contributes significantly to global GDP growth, with the US economy leading the
way in recent years, owing in part to the fact that consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% (two-
thirds) of GDP, while government spending accounts for 20% and business investment accounts for
15%, respectively. 67 The US GDP is currently running a 5.9 percent deficit, according to IMF figures.
 20

Aerial Views of the World's Stock Market

The stock market is a financial market in which investors invest their earnings in company stocks to
gain a stake and generate further revenue. A stock index or stock market index is a metric that is
used to determine the performance of a country's stock market. It is a subset of the stock market
that enables investors to calculate market performance by comparing current price levels to
15
historical values. Stock market indexes are calculated using a variety of statistical techniques. The
association between the stock market and economic growth is examined using a weighted average
market capitalization index, as its movements are determined by market capitalization. In the United
States, the Standard and Poor 500, or S&P 500, is the most widely followed weighted-average-
market-capitalization index. 8 It is regarded as the greatest representation of the US stock market
because it includes the 500 largest companies in the country by market capitalization. Because the
S&P 500 index includes major, multinational corporations that are heavily invested in other
countries, the GDP of such countries is likewise impacted by the S&P 500's influence.

Justification for Scholarly Research

As Nobel laureate economist Robert J. Schiller put it, "I've often wondered why we have to hear
about the stock market every night." The global stock market is constantly covered in all significant
news stories. Additionally, economists assert that the explanation is because there is a high
correlation between the stock market and the overall health of the world's economies [6, 9, 19].
However, several individuals asserted that the recent decade's growth trend had deviated from the
norm. According to World Bank data, the average economic growth rate of the world's top ten
economies over the last five years has been 2.3 percent in the United States, 2.725 percent in China,
0.925 percent in Japan, 1.7 percent in Germany, 1.625 percent in the United Kingdom, 1.6 percent in
France, 6.4 percent in India, 1.025 percent in Italy, 0.1 percent in Brazil, and 1.95 percent in Canada.
Tables 44 and and5,5 give detailed statistical data for real GDP 4, the S&P500 stock index for the last
five years.
 21

Table 4
Country-wise annual gross domestic product (GDP)
Country 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.3 − 5.9
China 2.2 3.3 2.7 2.7 − 4
Japan 0.5 2.2 0.3 0.7 − 5.2
Germany 2.2 2.5 1.5 0.6 − 7
United Kingdom 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.4 − 6.5
France 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 − 7.2
India 8.3 7 6.1 4.2 1.9
Italy 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 − 9.1
Brazil − 3.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 − 5.3
Canada 1 3.2 2 1.6 − 6.2

Table 5
S&P500 stock index annual returns rate
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
S&P500 9.54 19.42 − 6.24 28.88 − 12.2

According to the statistics in the preceding tables, average GDP growth in 2019 was 1.62 percent,
while annualized returns on the S&P 500 index were 28.88 percent. By contrast, GDP declined by
about 5.45 percent (approximately) in 2020, while annualized returns on the S&P 500 index were
23
12.2 percent. At this phase, a theory is formed regarding the relationship between stock markets and
the economy, as well as how the COVID-19 outbreak is affecting both. Can the stock market serve as
a barometer of the economy or vice versa? What happens to the stock market in the event of a
global economic shock (such as the COVID-19 epidemic)?
 22
This research paper examines the historical econometric link between the world's top ten
economies' gross domestic product and the S&P 500, which serves as the primary proxy for the
world's actual economy and the stock market. Its objective is to examine the present historical
association between the COVID-19 Pandemic, economic development, and the S&P 500 stock index.

Visit: Corresponding Work

The work is composed of two major sections. The first section examines past epidemics. It begins
with the influenza pandemic of a century ago and progresses through the H1N1, H5N1, and other
pandemics. The study examines the impact of epidemics on the revenue-generating regions of
various countries, which affect the global economy either directly or indirectly. The second section of
the study examines economic development or decline using a combination of finance and economics
to assist alleviate the inescapable uncertainty.

Epidemics' Impact on Gross Domestic Product or Economic Growth

Numerous explanations for the economic slowdown have been established by in-depth research of
earlier outbreaks. The loss of productive labor due to mortality and disease is a significant issue in
severe epidemics such as the 1918 influenza outbreak [2]. However, prior epidemiological research
sheds light on a number of their economic consequences, including costs associated with low
consumer sentiment, service-provider sectors (such as tourism, for example) at risk from the impact
of social distancing policies, and potential financial amplification. To differing degrees, all of these
reasons remain relevant today. Table66 outlines selected study techniques and findings regarding
the economic costs of previous epidemics. Numerous revelations occur.
 23

Table 6
Literature survey of past pandemics impact on GDP and economy
growth (*ppt: parts-per-thousands)
Epidemic Studies and
Fatalities Studies Economic losses
(s) methods
Six ppt lower GDP
Cross-country
growth and eight ppt
[2] panel
lower consumption
regressions
growth overall
Mortality significantly
The US states
Influenza [4] lowers growth over
Up to 50 data
pandemic, the following decade
million
1918–19 18% decline in
manufacturing activity
The US states per year; prompter
[10]
data and more aggressive
containment helped
cushion the impact
0.1% loss in global
[18] CGE model
GDP in 2003
SARS, 2003 774
Chinese 1–2 ppt lower GDP
[13]
surveys growth in China
Nigeria’s rural and
urban communities
have caused serious
Socio-
threats to the poultry
economic
industry, food
analysis using
security, and
H5N1 avian [23] structured
livelihoods. 75% of
influenza, 455 interviewed
poultry farms found
2003–19 scheduling
stopped ordering and
process
80% of households
stopped purchase and
consumption
Input-Output The possible damage
[7]
(IO) Analysis brought by lowering
 24

Epidemic Studies and

Fatalities Studies Economic losses
(s) methods
Model and domestic consumption
Computable that impacts on real
General GDP is around
Equilibrium − 0.1%ꢀ~ꢀ− 0.4%, and
(CGE) labor demand would
decrease 4.9%ꢀ~ꢀ6.4%
0.1% loss in annual
World Bank
[5] global GDP 0.4% for
estimate
Asia
reports
produced by Loss of GDP
non-profit or estimated the
non- economic burden of
[15]
governmental the outbreak range
organizations, from $2.8 to $32.6
Ebola, government, or billion
11,323 industry
2014–16
2.1 ppt lower GDP
growth in Guinea, 3.4
ppt in Liberia, and 3.3
[12] CGE model
ppt for Sierra Leone
in the first year of the
epidemic
GDP losses from the
disease of
Ecomod one- approximately 0.5%
[17] country CGE of GDP for a mild
model pandemic to just over
2% for a severe
H1N1 13 pandemic
Mexican tourism and
pork sectors losses of
Single linear
[25] around $US2.8bn.
regressions
The pork trade deficit
of $US27m with
 25

Epidemic Studies and

Fatalities Studies Economic losses
(s) methods
H1N1 incidence
(pꢀ=ꢀ0.048, rꢀ=ꢀ0.37)
Approx. 0.2% of GDP
fall that estimated
Interconnected
MERS 780 [16] US$2.6 billion in lost
sector analysis
revenue for the
tourism
GDP reaches 1.6%
Linear
and -0.90% average
ZIKA 3489 [22] regression
return because of
model
decreasing tourism
A 1918-type 4.8% loss in annual
[3]
pandemic global GDP
0.4–1% of GDP loss
per year due to ex-
A 1918-type ante prospects of a
pandemic; pandemic, 86% of
Includes the which is due to
[11]
Hypothetical intrinsic cost of mortality and 14% to
influenza mortality to income loss. For
pandemics GDP loss moderate pandemics,
the share of income
loss is larger at 40%
4.25% loss in annual
GDP 2.25 ppt from
A 1918-type
[1] the supply side; two
pandemic
ppt from the demand
side

Some broad lessons from the analysis of these previous epidemics may apply to the current COVID-19
outbreak. To begin, when an epidemic results in a large loss of life and property on a worldwide scale, the
world may incur a significant economic loss, which could result in a prolonged economic crisis. This means
that more costly procedures become economically beneficial in terms of labor preservation. These factors, in
addition to the basic objective of saving lives, are relevant to the cost-benefit analysis of different capacitive
strategies. Additionally, the research establishes that the interaction of supply and demand broadcast
channels is not unique to COVID-19, but is a feature of epidemic shocks in general.
 26

Chapter 4
Analysis
 27
To characterize the COVID-19 data analysis, a mechanism for obtaining the obtained data from the R
Software Version 3.6.3 has been proposed. Here, statistical measurements such as Mean, Median,
and Standard Deviation are used.

Mean, Median, Mode, Standard Deviation, and Global Average are all statistical measurements.
been applied to confirmed instances, recovered cases, and cases resulting in death. For establishing
a connection between numerous instances, these statistical tools provide comprehensive
information about India's regions. Poisson Regression methods have been used in this article to
model situations when outcome counts are unknown. It has developed into a necessary criterion.
This model produces two critical outputs: count data and rate data. Count data are those that are
discrete and have a non-negative magnitude. occur within a specified period. The term "rate data"
refers to information on the speed at which occurs within a specified period. Poisson Regression is
useful for assessing both count and rate data to the effect of X values as explanatory variables on Y
values as response variables.GLMs are generalized linear models in which variables have a response
that follows the normal distribution that is incompatible with linear regression methods. As a result,
the non-linear relationship between the response and predictor variables is being developed, as
expressed by a certain expression.

yiꢀ=ꢀα + β1x1i + β2x2i + ….+βpxpi + ei

where I = 1, 2,...n. A set of linear functions of predictor variables with error values is used to model
the response variable, Yi.

The Result of the Simulation

The experimental results were obtained using a personal computer configured with 16GB of RAM
and an NVIDIA GEFORCE GTX graphics card. The platform for data analysis is RStudio Version 3.6.3,
which is a free software package that can be downloaded and installed from the Internet. While
executing the data, a few packages such as covid19.analytics and covid19.data(case='aggregated')
standard library functions must be installed.
 28

GLOBAL PERCENTAGE AVERAGE

Table 1 summarises confirmed COVID cases from 188 countries. The top ten countries are
represented in this table using global percentage data, as well as the latest day change and data as
of 19/08/2020. India was ranked fourth in this table, with a total of 673165 confirmed cases and a
last-day change of 24850 cases in a single day.

GLOBAL PERCENTAGE AVERAGE

US BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA PERU CHILE UNITED KINGDOM MEXICO SPAIN ITALY

3% 3%
4%
4%
4%

4% 39%

9%

9%

21%

In COVID, death cases are displayed in Table2, with India ranking eighth with a total of 19268 deaths,
including 613 deaths on the last day of data collection on 19th August 2020. Additionally, data has
been collected two days prior, three days prior, seven days prior, fourteen days prior, and thirty days
prior. It has been noted that the number of instances has gradually increased during the last 30 days.
 29

2. Covid death cases.

COVID DEATHS
US BRAZIL UNITED KINGDOM ITALY MEXICO FRANCE SPAIN INDIA IRAN PERU

6% 6%
3% 5%

13%
18%

18%

17%

14%

RECOVERED COVID CASES

COVID cases have been recovered from 188 nations, 68 cities, and 253 geographical areas, as
depicted in Table 3. India is ranked fourth among the ten countries in this table, having recovered
409083 cases with 14856 cases recovered the previous day, 20032 cases recovered four days before,
14335 cases recovered two days earlier, 9468 cases recovered 14 days prior, and 4783 cases
recovered one month prior. This table indicates that the number of recovered cases has been
continuously increasing since August 19th.
 30

RECOVERED COVID CASES

GERMANY
PERU 189621
ITALY 191944
MEXICO 195724
IRAN 198949
CHILE 257451
INDIA 409083
RUSSIA 446127
US 894325
BRAZIL 990731

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000

RECOVERED COVID CASES

 31

Conclusion
The research was based on previously published research on the economics
of COVID-19. The objective is to foster synergies between academic and
political debates and to aid in the advancement of research.

Before delving into the economic impact of COVID-19 and the

government's response, we've compiled a list of the most frequently used
data sources for tracking known COVID-19 cases/deaths and social
distancing. For the first time, we observed that COVID-19 cases and deaths
are susceptible to measurement mistakes due to a variety of
circumstances, including testing capacity. Measures of mobility based on
GPS data from mobile phones have been frequently utilized to quantify
social distance. There are, however, significant concerns, most notably
regarding data confidentiality and portrayal. Additionally, the paper
analyzed numerous studies on social distancing, focusing on its drivers,
effectiveness in reducing COVID-19 blowout, and adherence. Social
distancing and its associated measures will continue to play a significant
role in academic study and policy development in the future.

Policy responses to COVID-19 will continue to be a focus of research in the

future. These initiatives, which range in extent and degree of
implementation, are projected to have far-reaching economic and social
consequences. The paper aimed to address these concerns by discussing
alternative public health and economic stimulus measures and doing a
literature analysis on policymakers, appropriate lockdown measures,
factors driving lockdown lifting, and a mix of fiscal and monetary policies.
performed a good job of smoothing out the recession slope".
 32

QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Which age group do you belong to?

16-20

21-25

26-30

30+

2. To which Gender do you belong too?

Male

Female

Other:

3. What is yourProfession?

Student

Working

Unemployed

Other:
 33
4. Does any of your family members is the covid patient?

YES

NO

5. How frequently do you shop from outside like in the market?

occasionally

Everyday

Weekends

Festivals

6. What do you feel about government decisions that are to be taken during the
covid 19?

Very satisfied

Satisfied

Neutral

Dissatisfied

Very dissatisfied
7. Did you wear a mask on regular basis?

Yes

No

Mayb

8. How many hours do you spend online working from home or online classes?

0-2

3-5

5-8

Other:
9. Does covid 19 affect your life?
Yes

N
o

10. Do you think in the future there will be diseases like covid 19 ? will be there.
Yes
NO

MAYBE