SANDOR Ch010203 Macaraeg

Accelerometer Enabled Earthquake Early Warning System (EWS) as an
Instrument for Notifications Issuance in Simulated Earthquake Environments
Philippine Early Accelerometer-Gyroscope Earthquake Monitor

(PEAGEM)
A Research Paper Presented to

Faculty of BED - Senior High School Program
Don Bosco Technical College
Mandaluyong City
In partial fulfillment of the requirements in

Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) -
Practical Research 2
By:
Macaraeg, Marc Gabriel C.

Soriano, Patrick James A.
Ilagan, Edward P.
Umandal, Gian D.
Conti, Andrew Nazreth P.
Gaite, Eman T.
12 - Sandor
April 2019
Senior High School Program
Mandaluyong City
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER I 2
THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND 2
Background of the Study 2
Theoretical Framework 4
Conceptual Framework 5
Statement of the Problem 8
Hypothesis 8
Scope and Delimitations 9
Significance of the Study 9
Definition of Terms 11
CHAPTER II 14
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE 14
Introduction 14
Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines 14
Background of Earthquake History in the Philippines 16
The Philippine Earthquake Model 17
Background of Earthquakes P-wave And S-wave 19
Earthquake Early Warning Systems 20
Japanese Meteorological Agency Earthquake Early Warning 21
Usage of Information Communications Technology in the Terms of Early Warning 22
Cellular Broadcast Systems vs. Short Message Services 24
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Accelerometer as an Early Warning System 26
Synthesis 28
CHAPTER III 30
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 30
Research Design 30
Process Flowchart 30
Population, Sample Size and Sampling Technique 33
Research Instrument 33
Data Gathering Procedure 33
Statistical Treatment 34
Bibliography 37
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CHAPTER I
THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND
Background of the Study
The Philippines is an archipelago nation located directly on the Pacific Ring of
Fire. This precarious locale means that the island nation is vulnerable to seismic action
(Dacanay, J.M., Mauro, M. G. B., Sandoval, J.A. & Lualhati, G.P., 2018). Earthquakes
caused by a massive underground movement that produces primary and secondary
waves. Modern seismic detection focuses primarily on detecting P waves; however,
such equipment is expensive and inaccessible to the general public. S-waves then
become the primary earthquake detection format for amateur seismologists (Wu, Y. &
Kanamori, H. , 2008).
There are four countries recognized by the United Nations that currently have
existing and active Early Warning Systems (EWS). These are Japan, China, Taiwan,
and Mexico (UNESCO, 2017). The Japan Meteorological Agency's Earthquake Early
Warning System (緊急地震速報, Kinkyū Jishin Sokuhō) was introduced early last
decade. This system has a hit rate of around 70-80% and has detected the Great East
Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. This system has been attributed to have saved
thousands of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars in property every time an
earthquake hits Japan. Early warning systems prioritize instantaneous information
dissemination to provide adequate time for people to prepare themselves for seismic
action (Kamigaichi, 2004).
The Philippines' primary earthquake detection institution is the Philippine
Institution of Volcanology and Seismology. PHIVOLCS currently has around 40 seismic
stations installed in the Philippines, with plans to open up to 120 of these stations in the
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next decade. These seismic stations allow the country to be prepared and to know
where the epicenter of an earthquake is when it strikes. However, as of 2019, there is
no unified and centralized medium for any Earthquake Early Warning Detection and
Warning System (PHIVOLCS, 2017).
The nearest form of Earthquake Notification System that exists is managed by
the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), which
consists of informing the general public through the Cell Broadcast technology.
However, the system is not yet reliable and fast-paced enough to provide any Early
Warning mechanism (Dacanay, J.M. et. al., 2018). Existing systems only alert the users
after the earthquake was already felt. This research aims to fill in this gap and provide
alternative Earthquake Early Warning systems through simulated environments and
earthquake scenarios.
The researchers came up with this idea as a means to resolve a growing issue of
Earthquake readiness and preparedness in metropolitan regions. Metro Manila is
preparing for the big one, a massive 7.5 magnitude earthquake in the West Valley Fault
(Rusydy, I., Faustino-Eslava, D., Muskin, U., Gallardo-Zafra, R., Aguirre, J., Bantayan,
N., Alam, L., & Dakey, S. (2018). This research aims to produce a more effective and
viable alternative to the antiquated Cellular Broadcast Notification system. Through this
research, there is a possibility that lives, properties, and the general public can be
saved from a disastrous seismic event through early warning notification and
information dissemination.
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Theoretical Framework
According to Sattele, Brundl and Straub (2015), Early Warning Systems are
increasingly applied to mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards. The effect of EWS
with risk reduction measures with its optimization of design and operation demands that
the reliability and effectiveness of this unit must be quantified. Figure 1 shows a
theoretical framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural
hazards.
Fig 1. Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards:
Concepts and application to debris flow warning.
The system comprises of three primary parts, Monitoring, Data Interpretation and
Information Dissemination. Monitoring describes the part of the program which contains
sensors and a quantitative interpretation of sensor data. The Data Interpretation
presents the detection of an event, and a threshold to confirm the indication of such
scenario. Once that threshold is met, a Warning will be issued and declared through the
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presented mediums. The application demonstrates the potential of the framework for
identifying the important factors inuencing the effectiveness of the EWS and
determining optimal warning strategies and system congurations.
Conceptual Framework
The idea of this study is upon the concept of an Early Warning System that is
manifested in different ways that depend on a specific situation. The researchers,
together with their interest in integrating present technology, have chosen to come up
with their own Early Warning System by the use of a Raspberry Pi and an
Accelerometer-Gyroscope module. Being surrounded by the Pacific Ring of Fire, this is
a small step into being on par with countries like Japan, China, Taiwan, and Mexico with
their centralized and reliable Early Warning Systems (UNESCO, 2017). The focus of
this study takes on the Early Warning Systems introduced by the countries, as
mentioned earlier. Through the utilization of the internet, there are affordable modules
that are simple to learn and can be used to create a prototype that estimates a specific
location throughout the Philippines and creates a delay on when the S-wave was first
detected and when it impacts the location on where the people are. For this study, the
location chosen by the researchers is Mandaluyong City, as this is where the school
resides and is close to fault lines.
In determining the viability of the prototype for this study, the researchers came
up with the necessary variables to effectively utilize the possibilities of using the Early
Warning System through the use of Raspberry Pi and the Accelerometer-Gyroscope
module that is presented in Figure 2.
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Figure 2: Variables of the Study
As shown in Figure 2, the independent variable of the study is the earthquake
and its S-wave. The above-mentioned independent variable affects the time estimated
through the location where the earthquake occurred. The prototype is dependent on the
S-wave and the seismic activity. An alert is sent through the Pushbullet app that relays
from the Raspberry Pi and the Accelerometer-Gyroscope module with a 5-second
delay.
The researchers have also constructed a process flow chart to highlight the
processes involved in the making of this study (See Figure 3).
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Figure 3: Process Flow Chart
As shown in Figure 3, the flow chart consists of the summarized steps to
complete the study. The first box is all about the research of the possible materials used
to construct the prototype. The second box is the acquisition of the researched
materials and its preparation to be used in the construction of the prototype. The third
box is the construction of the overall prototype. Coding, soldering, testing, and
experimenting are all done here. Through the building of the research and the
construction of the prototype comes the Experimentation and Sampling.
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Statement of the Problem
This study aims to analyze the viability of utilizing an Accelerometer-Enabled Early
Warning System as an alternative to Cellular Broadcast Notifications Issuance in a
Simulated Earthquake Environment. This would significantly resolve the problem in
public information dissemination and increase the earthquake readiness capacity of the
Philippines.
1. How fast can the Accelerometer Early Warning System (AEWS) issue warnings
to users in Mandaluyong City in an Earthquake simulation?
2. Is there a significant difference in the notification of the public among the usage
of AEWS compared to none?
3. What is the significance of having a PushBullet application to every person in the
Philippines?
Hypothesis
The hypothesis is tested with a 5% level of significance.
H 0 : There is no significant difference in the speed of earthquake notification and
readiness of the public among the usage of the Accelerator-Enabled Early
Warning System.
H a : There is a significant difference in the speed of earthquake notification and
readiness of the public among the usage of the Accelerator-Enabled Early
Warning System.
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Scope and Delimitations
This study focuses on Earthquake Alert Notification by creating an Earthquake
Warning System (EWS) prototype product to detect an earthquake in the Philippines. It
involves the related studies and data regarding the earthquakes that appeared in the
Philippines that should consider a product of EWS to use as an advantage. The
researchers focus on how to detect an Earthquake with so little time it gives for people
to be ready for its destructive presence. This research also includes the integration of
ICT notification services to notify Android, iOS, and Desktop users of an impending
earthquake.
However, the researcher's study and product are only limited to S-wave
detection. P-waves are not part of this study. Moreover, the researchers have limited
financial resources making a prototype product with features to detect a P-wave
impossible due to the high cost of sensitive seismic measurement instruments.
Significance of the Study
This study is highly beneficial to all the stakeholders of society in almost all
aspects. Earthquakes and other related seismic actions are disastrous, especially in
highly urbanized areas like Metropolitan Manila (PHIVOLCS, 2017). This research is
beneficial to multiple industries, such as construction, medical, education, and retail,
where early warning notifications may save lives and property.
This research gives a much more effective and feasible alternative to the Cellular
Broadcast System for residential, commercial, and industrial uses:
1. In terms of residential areas, around ten to five seconds of
preparation-time may be given to families and neighbors. These last 10
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seconds are crucial as it gives critical time for people to find cover and
brace for the earthquake (Chang, 2016).
2. For commercial uses, this product may be sold to educated individuals
who would want to install a sensor in their businesses. In media, large
broadcasting companies can install this system to provide early warning
notifications through 1-seg using the ISDB format. This format allows
modern TVs to turn on and tune in automatically to emergency
notifications and applications (Kamigaichi, 2004).
3. In industrial uses, this product may be used to save lives.
a. Construction businesses should install this system in their sites
so that workers, especially in high-rise projects, may brace
themselves for an earthquake. In comparison, workers who are not
notified in heights for greater than 5 stories are more likely to
sustain fatal injuries during seismic action.
b. Hospitals using sensitive equipment such as Magnetic Resonance
Imaging machines (MRI) and X-Rays are greatly affected during an
earthquake. Early warning systems allow these machines to be
turned off before the seismic movement, saving the lives of the
person inside and the multi-million dollar equipment.
c. Energy Companies can link their mainframes and power grids to
this early warning system to automatically turn off electricity during
seismic action. This lowers the risk of electrical fires and damage to
electronics.
The research aims to benefit the state, the people of the Philippines, and other
researchers because it allows them time to prepare for an earthquake. The product can
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assist the state by providing a warning to them, and they can plan rescue missions
faster.
Also, this study helps common people to compose themselves and not panic
when the earthquake strikes. The study provides data concerning the viability of utilizing
an Accelerometer-Enabled Early Warning System to improve other research.
Definition of Terms
Accelerometer
- An accelerometer is an electromechanical device used to measure acceleration
forces. Such forces may be static, like the continuous force of gravity or, as is the
case with many mobile devices, dynamic to sense movement or vibrations.
Cellular Broadcast Notification
- Cell Broadcast (CB) is a mobile technology that allows messages (currently of up
to 15 pages of up to 93 characters) to be broadcast to all mobile handsets and
similar devices within a designated geographical area. The broadcast range can
be varied, from a single cell to the entire network (Chang, 2016).
Earthquake Early Warning
- An earthquake early warning is the rapid detection of earthquakes, real-time
assessment of the shaking hazard, and notification of people prior to shaking.
Warning times range from a few seconds to a few minutes depending on ones
location and how large the earthquake is. The further one is away from the
epicenter, the more warning time. The bigger the earthquake, the stronger the
shaking at greater distances. An early warning should tell one how strong the
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shaking is at your location, and how long until that shaking starts. (Wu &
Kanamori, 2008).
Gyroscope
- Gyroscope, a device containing a rapidly spinning wheel or circulating beam of
light that is used to detect the deviation of an object from its desired orientation.
Gyroscopes are used in compasses and automatic pilots on ships and aircraft, in
the steering mechanisms of torpedoes, and in the inertial guidance systems
installed in space launch vehicles, ballistic missiles, and orbiting satellites.
Japan Meteorological Agency
- The Japan Meteorological Agency (気象庁 Kishō-chō), JMA, is an agency of the
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism. It is charged with
gathering and providing results for the public in Japan that are obtained from
data based on daily scientific observation and research into natural phenomena
in the fields of meteorology, hydrology, seismology, and volcanology, among
other related scientific fields. Its headquarters is located in Chiyoda, Tokyo
(Kamaigaichi, 2004).
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
- The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) is a
Philippine national institution dedicated to provide information on the activities of
volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as other specialized information
and services primarily for the protection of life and property and in support of
economic, productivity, and sustainable development. It is one of the service
agencies of the Department of Science and Technology. The institution also
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monitors volcano, earthquake, and tsunami activity, and issues warnings as
necessary.
P - Wave
- A P-wave is one of the two main types of elastic body waves, called seismic
waves in seismology. P-waves travel faster than other seismic waves and hence
are the first signal from an earthquake to arrive at any affected location or a
seismograph and may be transmitted through gases, liquids, or solids.
S - Wave
- Are one of the two main types of elastic body waves, so named because they
move through the body of an object, unlike surface waves.
Seismic Event
- Seismic events are defined as any seismic event (whether natural or caused by
humans) that generates seismic waves. Seismic Events are caused mostly by
rupture of geological faults but also by other events such as volcanic activity,
landslides, mine blasts, and nuclear tests.
Seismology
- Seismology is the scientific study of earthquakes and the propagation of elastic
waves through the Earth or through other planet-like bodies. The field also
includes studies of earthquake environmental effects such as tsunamis as well as
diverse seismic sources such as volcanic, tectonic, oceanic, atmospheric, and
artificial processes such as explosions.
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CHAPTER II
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
Introduction
For millions of years, the world has been silently moving underneath its crust and
forming the continents we see today. This continual buildup of stress in the Earth’s crust
over tens of hundreds of years is primarily the reason for seismic events. As civilizations
increase in complexity and the world becomes more interconnected than ever, these
minute-long seismic events have big ramifications to whole nations and communities.
This chapter aims to discuss the following: Background of natural disasters and the
earthquake history in the Philippine setting, existing Earthquake Early Warning models,
concurrent use of ICT in the Philippines for Disaster Response, Notification Models and
other themes of this research.
Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines
According to Yumul, G P. Jr., Cruz, N A., Servando, N T., & Dimalanta, C B.
(2010), Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is sensitive to weather-related
hazards and vulnerable to them. Extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones,
monsoon rains, and dry spells, have caused threats that have turned into disasters
(such as flooding and landslides). Financial resources planned for infrastructure and
social services had to be diverted in response to the destruction caused by calamities.
Changing climate patterns and weather-related events over the past five years
(2004–08) can act as an example of what climate change is going to mean to the world.
Prompt identification of this probability and the implementation of appropriate action and
steps by catastrophe risk management is critical for mitigating, if not entirely eradicating,
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loss of life and properties. Considering the geographical location and geological
features of the Philippines, this is a matter of immediate concern.
The Philippine archipelago is an island arc system composed of volcanic,
oceanic, and micro-continental blocks that have been sutured together over time. This
understanding is essential as it describes how the physical attributes of the nation
respond to extreme weather events. The mixture and activity of natural elements like
light, water, and wind in the tropics have culminated in the formation, degradation, and
accumulation of dense soil coverings. Based on the initial stone that has been altered to
form soil, the binding clay minerals, plants and other organic materials in the soil, the
steepness of the slope on which the soil is deposited, and the volume of rainfall in a
particular area, soil can be easily transported by earthquake and rain-induced mass
waste methods — often characterized by volcanic arc systems connected with ancient
or current geothermal processes, the Philippines, being in the Pacific Ring of Fire.
Therefore, in these volcanic zones, hydrothermal changes occur, which can be
correlated with mineralization.
Every year, around 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Responsibility Area
(PAR) with seven to eight landfalling. Most of the tropical cyclones originate in the
Philippine Ocean. Two weather patterns— the Northeast Monsoon, active from late
October to late March; and the Southwest Monsoon, prominent in July–September
months— bring heavy rains to the region. Planting seasons in the Philippines are tied in
different parts of the country to the end of the rainy season. The precipitation source is
the Inter-Tropical Interaction Zone (ITCZ), the result of the interaction of trade winds
from the northern and southern hemispheres. During December–February, the ITCZ sits
south of the equator, moving north during April. In August and September, it reaches its
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northernmost location (north of the Philippines) and starts its southward motion
gradually before the end of the year. Another factor that impacts the nation whenever it
is involved in the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Background of Earthquake History in the Philippines
According to P. Richon, J.-C. Sabroux, M. Halbwachs, J. Vandemeulebrouck, N.
Poussielgue, J. Tabbagh, & R. Punongbayan (2003), the soil-gas 222Rn concentration
in the soil had been monitored continuously from June 1993 till November 1996 in Taal
Volcano, Luzon Island, the Philippines, in which a 7.1 earthquake occurred November
15, 1994, 48 km south of the volcano. An anomalous rise in soil-gas radon (peak to
background ratio = 6) was reported twenty-two days before the earthquake,
unprecedented in the entire time sequence. Typhoon Teresa's potential generation of
this phenomenon, which reached Luzon Island a few days earlier, was ruled out a year
ago when super typhoon Angela, the most powerful storm to strike the Philippines in ten
years, crossed Luzon Island in almost the same path without causing a significant radon
signal disruption. There is also strong evidence that the Taal radon phenomenon is
triggered by aggregation of pressure prior to the Mindoro earthquake.
Since the great 1966 Tashkent earthquake, several studies have suggested that
calculating radon levels in well water and soil gas (mainly the isotope 222) could be an
effective tool for detecting seismic events, even at relatively long distances from the
epicenter. For example, two weeks before the M6.8 western Nagano Prefecture
earthquake at 65 km from the epicenter, differences in soil-gas radon concentrations
are reported in measurements performed in Japan. The BARASOL test measures by
absorption radon gas. This comprises a silicon interface, a preamplifier, an amplifier, a
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power tolerance gate, and a data processing and storage microprocessor. The 222Rn
diffuses in a geometrically optimized measurement chamber through the filters. The
differential range (from 0.7 MeV to 6.1 MeV) allows the input of 220Rn and 222Rn
short-lived daughters accumulated on the detector and chamber wall to be removed.
The detector has an active surface of 470 mm2and a biasing voltage of 5 V, leading to a
sensitivity of 1 count.h1= 50 Bq.m3. Over two years and a half, the radon probe had
recorded data with a one-hour sampling period. During the acquisition time, numerous
problems occurred, primarily due to the failure of the lithium batteries supplying the
radon probe and the holes in data transmission. The meteorological data available are
also shown in the same chart. There is no obvious correlation between a comparative
analysis of regional meteorology and radon signal. This also refers to the noticeable
radon anomaly (up to 30000 Bq.m / in October 1994), which is considerably higher than
the average annual record.
The Philippine Earthquake Model
According to the research of the main Philippine Earthquake Authority, the
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology named the Philippine Earthquake
Model; the Greater Manila area is highly susceptible to seismic action. From a data
source of 58000 instrumental records and historical accounts, a graphical
representation of all major tectonic movements was formulated and is available for
public use. (PHIVOLCS, 2017). The Philippines is prone to such seismic disturbances
and has caused the country to shake in the last decade. This is due to the fact that the
Philippines is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, which makes vulnerability percentage
at the top. An example of this phenomenon would be the earthquake of 1990 in Central
Luzon with a magnitude of Ms 7.8 was the greatest earthquake for the people of the
Philippines. The Philippines has many earthquake sources, such as the Philippine
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Trench, built by subduction of the western edge of the Philippine Sea Plate below the
Eurasian Plate; this trench is the primary source of earthquakes and causes the
Philippines to be classified as an earthquake-prone country. The reason why the
country is very prone to such seismic disturbances is due to sources of earthquakes,
which are the Philippine Fault Zone (PFZ), Manila Trench, and West Valley Fault
System (WVFS), which roughly parallel the Philippine Trench (Rusydy et al., 2017).
The Philippine Earthquake Model is analyzed and evaluated through the
probability of an earthquake ground motion. It is an evaluation of the probability of
occurrence of a certain earthquake ground motion integrating combined uncertainties in
magnitude, location and intensity measure (IM) using the Total Probability Theorem
(PHIVOLCS, 2017)
PHIVOLCS has a library of different sources, including from PAGASA and
different international weather companies and weather bureaus that supply them with all
the necessary data. Also, PHIVOLCS has what is called the Ground Motion Prediction
Model or GMPM. The GMPM used to characterize the source-to-site seismic wave
attenuation. For all active faults and area source zones (Chiou and Youngs, 2014). With
this information and tools at hand, PHIVOLCS and its staff have made a publication to
be a reference material to be added in planning out as it indicates where the most
susceptible locations are in the entire Philippines. By using the Philippine Earthquake
Model Atlas, the ones who design and create infrastructures for a city or for their
community and the like will have a guideline on how to reduce possible casualties and
damages that may surround that area.
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Background of Earthquakes P-wave And S-wave
According to Z. Wang, and D. Zhao (2005), to better understand the seismic
structure and seismotectonics of the whole Tohoku and Hokkaido arc in Japan, they
combined arrival time data from earthquakes below Tohoku and Hokkaido land areas
and below the Pacific Ocean to evaluate the three-dimensional (3D) velocity structures
(Vp and Vs) under the whole Japan-Kuril arc of the Northeast (NE). They adopted
176,431 P-wave and 110,953 S-wave arrival times, from 5123 local earthquakes, and
2843 sP depth-phase data from 385 occurrences under the Pacific Ocean.
Together, P-wave, S-wave, and sP depth-phase arrival data used to map the 385
suboceanic events accurately. The results obtained confirmed the significant features of
previous studies and showed some new features of structural heterogeneity under (NE)
of Japan and the forearcs of Kuril. Anomalies with high-velocity from the cold
subducting Pacific slab and anomalies with low-velocity anomalies in the hot mantle
wedge were imaged clearly. On the upper boundary of the Pacific slab under the forearc
zone, strong lateral heterogeneities were reported, showing a good correlation with the
spatial distribution of large interplate earthquakes. Such results indicated that there
might be large coupling sections (or asperities) and weak coupling or decoupling
patches along with the Pacific slab’s upper limit.
There was visibility of widespread low-velocity anomalies in the forearc mantle
above the subducting Pacific slab, which might reflect serpentinization of the forearc
mantle associated with the subducting slab’s dehydration process. Their findings have
demonstrated a general tendency for seismic coupling in asperities to be situated on the
slab boundary beneath the suboceanic zone around low-velocity areas.
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Earthquake Early Warning Systems
According to M. Erdik, Y. Fahjan, O. Ozel, H. Alcik, A. Mert, and M. Gul (2003)
The potential impact of significant earthquakes on urban areas can be minimized by
prompt and appropriate action following a catastrophic earthquake. Current examples
are the rapid response system introduced in California, Taiwan, and Japan. Early
warning from an earthquake gives the necessary time for a clean emergency shutdown
of systems prone to damage such as power stations, telephone networks,
transportation, and computer centers. Such programs are currently in the planning
stages or being constructed in Mexico, Romania, California, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey,
and Greece.
The people responsible for the warning systems installed in Istanbul placed ten
active motion stations located near the Great Marmara Fault. Continuous Data
telemetry between these stations and the primary data center is carried out using a
digital spread spectrum radio modem system involving repeater stations selected in the
region. Because of the complexity of the fault rupture and the short fault distances
involved, a robust and straightforward Early Warning algorithm is implemented based
on the exceedance of the defined threshold time-domain amplitude levels. Band-pass
filtered accelerations and cumulative absolute velocity are compared to the defined
threshold values. When any acceleration or CAV in a given station exceeds specific
selectable threshold values, a vote is considered. Whenever we have 2 or 3 (selectable)
station votes within a selectable time interval, the first warning is announced after the
first vote. Early warning data (consisting of three-alarm levels) is transmitted to the
relevant servo shutdown systems of the recipient facilities, which responds on the
appropriate alarm level intervention. Depending on the location of the earthquake
(initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient building, the warning time may be as high as
8s.
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Japanese Meteorological Agency Earthquake Early Warning
JMA is now developing an Earthquake Early Warning system. In this issue,
the methods used for prompt estimation of hypocenter locations, magnitude and
seismic intensities, the warning dissemination criteria, and plans are briefly
introduced. Early Earthquake Warning (EEW) or also known as “Kinkyū Jishin
Sokuhō", was established in the year 2011 by the department called the Japanese
Meteorological Agency (JMA). The objective of the Earthquake Early Warning
system is to notify every person of each area of the country. This is with regard to
the upcoming seismic activities that strikes, but mainly the main focus is
Earthquakes.
According to Kamigaichi (2008), the information provided by the Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA) on earthquake early warning (EEW) is designed to
enable public officials, key security staff, and the general public to take advance
countermeasures against the effects of strong earthquake movement. The project is
not just to notify people through their mobile phones but also through their
televisions, radios, and other broadcasting instruments that can contact every citizen
in Japan. The two forms of seismic waves generated by earthquakes are critical for
earthquake detection: P-waves and S-waves. Although these waves emit at the
same time, p-waves are less intense and move relatively fast, so it is essential to
detect these waves early to optimize warning time.
Seismographs are used to track and distinguish these two types of seismic
waves. Since earthquakes are not limited to any specific region of Japan, JMA has
installed more than 1,000 earthquake detection seismographs across the country.
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Usage of Information Communications Technology in the Terms of Early
Warning
According to Espada (2018), the Philippines is subjected to 21 tropical cyclones
per year. Despite the benefits of information and communication in managing natural
disaster risks, integrating Information Communications Technology (ICT) assets in
tropical cyclone risk assessments has been given little to no attention.
Cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards that can occur in the
local ocean-atmosphere system. The combination of strong winds and extreme rainfall
can make catastrophic impacts on the environment, people, and the economy alongside
the considerable loss of human life due to secondary effects such as storm surges,
landslides, and flooding. Thus the revolution of ICT is timely as the technology has
served to reduce the natural disaster vulnerability.
The Hyogo Framework for Action (UN-ISDR, 2005) has set the following roles of
information and communication in terms of managing disaster risks. The following
concepts are included in this scope:
“Priorities for Action No. 3 - Use knowledge, innovation, and education to
build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels through information
sharing and cooperation.
Priorities for Action No. 5 - Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective
response at all levels through dialogues, coordination, and information
exchange between disaster managers and development sections.”
ICT is essential for risk assessment and disaster risk management, hazard
monitoring, and early warning and alert systems for both national and local levels.
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However, there is a lack of research in exploring how access to these technologies and
their influence on at-risk communities influence their capacity to become resilient to
environmental events. Espada noted that within this context, there had been no studies
conducted to examine the spatial distribution of ICT assets for assessing tropical
cyclone risk.
The research concluded that communication is the heart of the four thematic
areas of natural disaster risk reduction and management. The primary role of
communication is to provide the public with the effects and outcomes of any event,
convey the message between management teams and communities and provide a set
of robust and homogeneous networks for even challenging and remote communications
environments.
Most regions in the Philippines, around sixty-four percent, are highly susceptible
and vulnerable due to the lack of ICT infrastructure and readiness in the area. The
results also provide significant insights and serve as the basis for a much more
informed policy regarding limiting risks posed by natural disasters and imminent threats
of climate change.
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Cellular Broadcast Systems vs. Short Message Services
According to Sillem and Wiersma (2006), in life-threatening emergencies,
citizens need to be warned. With the rise of new technology, lots of improvements have
been made in mobile phones in the last few years. So has been the usage of social
media to warn and teach safety measures to users of a natural calamity that may hit
their vicinity. In recent years the use of mobile phones for text communication has
grown explosively (Sillem and Wiersma, 2006), and a decade later has brought more
advancements and more features to mobile phones and their ability to notify
adequately.
Such advancements have brought in new possibilities for technology in order to
warn people. With the rate of new technology being designed and created, a wide array
of useful tools to make people aware have been created for the ease of daily life and
their preparedness altogether for a possible disturbance. One type of technology that
has been used to deliver such information is through communication by the use of
mobile phones of text messaging. According to Sillem and Wiersma (2006), there are
two main methods for sending a text message to large groups of mobile phone users:
text messaging (SMS or short message service) and cell broadcast. In both alternatives,
a text message appears on the screen of the mobile phone user. There is no difference
in this part of the technology. There are, however, differences between the two systems.
SMS (Short Message Service)
The first alternative is the Short message service, also known as SMS. This is a
service that has been used since the rise of mobile phones in different parts of the
world, most notably a service that is frequently used by most people in the Philippines.
With the SMS service, a message is sent point-to-point to a specific predefined set of
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phone numbers. In this case, the people that receive the message are known, but their
location at the time of receiving is unknown (Sillem and Wiersma, 2006). With this in
mind, location is an essential factor and is part of evaluating where the earthquake
impacts. If two people are communicating, only then will they know when the
earthquake took place and what time they felt the impact. According to Sillem and
Wiersma (2006), these data come from the people involved and require them to relay
the information to another person manually. Messages are stored in a buffer between
the sender and the receiver so that a message can also be received at a later point in
time when the mobile phone of the receiver was turned off at the time of sending.
Because of the technology used, the capacity of the network for SMS is limited. A factor
in sending out alert notifications is the time and how the people receive the notification
regarding an impending earthquake. Due to the limited nature of the SMS, this could
pose a problem in notifying mobile phone users on an earthquake that impacts.
According to Aloudat, Michael, and Yan (2007), SMS does have the potential to be used
in location-based emergency services. This could also compromise their safety as well
as make their situation very dangerous as they are exposed to different surroundings
depending on where they are at the time that very situation happens. This could be a
problem in a crisis situation when the network is easily overloaded (Cel@lert).
CBS (Cell Broadcast System)
The second alternative is the Cell broadcast system or CBS. The CBS is used in
alerting and notifying people within a geographical area. According to Sillem and
Wiersma (2006), the term broadcast is used because of its similarity to radio
broadcasting. It is a one-way communication system. The warned geographical area is
known using this technology, but not the people that have received the message, just
like radio broadcasting. This makes this service anonymous and free of cost for the
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receiver. This type of system depends on the service provider of the mobile phones.
The service provider will act as an antenna to relay the alerts to a wide radius of the
people who are using their service. The messages are not stored in a buffer before
sending, but only real-time received by switched-on mobile phones (Sillem and
Wiersma, 2006). The notifications come in only once as the primary way that this would
work is that the phone needs to be activated in order to push through the notification.
The CBS can work even with a congested network. With all the influx of communication
from the network, this still makes its way through in spite of all conditions. Factors to
note about CBS is about its standardization in commercial applications. Only some
countries in the world have made CBS be utilized and can be accessed by having a
Subscriber Identity Module or SIM. Unlike the SMS, the CBS has no two way
communication as this works as a broadcast and does need phone numbers in order to
send out broadcasts as According to Aloudat, Michael, and Yan (2007) CBS is
conveyed on dedicated channels by using a fraction of the bandwidth that is normally
used for mobile phone calls and SMS text messages. The use of CBS can be beneficial
to people and can be used as an advantage because of its different style in delivering
while still using the same technology. This could help cut down casualties and
everything else that is involved with an earthquake.
Accelerometer as an Early Warning System
According to Y. Wu, and H. Kanamori (2008), as urbanization advances
throughout the world, earthquakes pose a serious threat to the living and properties in
urban areas close to major faults on offshore land or subduction zones. The Earthquake
Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool to reduce earthquake hazards if the spatial
relationship between towns and sources of earthquakes is optimal for such warning and
their residents are adequately trained to respond to earthquake warning messages. An
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EEW system alerts an upcoming strong shaking to an urban area, usually with a few
seconds to a few tens of seconds of warning time, i. e., before the arrival of the
disruptive S-wave component of the strong ground movement. Just a few seconds of
advanced warning time will be useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for
various sensitive facilities, such as high-speed vehicles and high-speed trains, to avoid
potential derailment; it will also be useful for organized shutdown of gas pipes to
mitigate fire hazards, regulated shutdown of high-tech production operations to reduce
potential loses, and computer equipment safeguarding to prevent the loss of critical data
bases.
A practical approach was explored to EEW using the ground motion parameter
πc and a high-pass filtered vertical displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the
original 3 sec of the P waveforms.The earthquake magnitude could be calculated from
πc at a given site and Pd would estimate the maximum ground-motion velocity (PGV).
In this method, it recursively convert incoming strong motion acceleration signals to
ground velocity and displacement.
There is a constant monitoring of a P-wave activation. When a trigger occurs, πc
and Pd are computed. It is possible to estimate the strength of the earthquake and the
intensity of the ground-motion then give a warning to be issued. These alerts would be
available in an ideal situation within 10 sec of the origin time of a large earthquake
whose subsequent ground motion would last for tens of seconds.
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Synthesis
According to Jeff Coopez, "The essential thing is to bear always in mind that
trouble can appear at any time. Be AWARE. Be READY. Be ALERT. "As said by Jeff
Coopez, this statement is all about preparation when it comes to unexpected situations.
The statement is related to the proposed research, which is to let the people in the
Philippines to be aware, ready, and to be alert on a disastrous seismic activity that
might strike our country.
The help of satellites can predict natural Disasters like strong typhoons,
hurricanes, and tornadoes. These disasters can be measured when it strikes and how
strong it is. But one of the hardest to achieve and to tell is when and how strong will the
Big One strike be. Focusing more on how to predict where will the Earthquake strike,
when it strikes, and how strong will the magnitude be is the foundation of the
Earthquake Early Warning system. The idea of making an Earthquake Early Warning
system is derived from Japan's Meteorological Agency's Early Earthquake Warning
system called "Kinkyū Jishin Sokuhō." We came up with this idea as a way to address
the growing problem of earthquake readiness and preparedness in metropolitan
regions. Another reason why the researchers came up with this idea because the
researchers noticed that there are no systems that can detect Earthquakes early in the
Philippines.
In Seismology (the study of earthquakes), there are two types of waves that
propagate through the planet. These waves are the Primary and Secondary Waves,
also known as P-Waves and S-Waves. On average, P-waves travel 60% faster than
S-waves because the Earth's interior does not respond to both of them the same way.
P-waves are waves of compression that use force in the propagation direction.
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Usage of technology, especially in this research' usage of programming
languages and other related tools, is beneficial to all. Information Communications
Technology is unexplored territory in the Philippine setting. This research aims to bridge
the gap between the general public and ICT in the Earthquake Early Warning prototype.
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CHAPTER III
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research Design
The research design is experimental quantitative study primarily focused on
structural observation. Variables in the study are purely numerical which includes the
sensitivity of the unit and the time used to compute for the mean notification time. Thus,
the study aims to diminish the damage caused by an earthquake by giving people
notifications and time to prepare. Furthermore, data analysis consists of statistical
measures of tendency such as the mean notification time. Ultimately, the data will be
used to correctly discern the rejection or acceptance of the states hypothesis.
Process Flowchart
This research consists of multiple processes for experimentation. Figure 4
showcases the process flowchart that the Philippine Early Accelerometer-Gyroscope
Earthquake Monitor (PEAGEM) unit utilizes.
Figure 4: PEAGEM Unit Process Flow Chart
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As shown in the figure above, the flow chart consists of what the device performs
upon it receives information that an earthquake occurred. On the physical layer, the
EWS releases an alert once the accelerometer detected ground shaking through the
S-wave. Afterward, it directs to the notification layer. Here the PushBullet app is at work.
Once the accelerometer has detected an S-wave within the delay time given to the
module through the ground layer, it releases out an alert through the Pushbullet API and
triggering a warning to be sent out to the phones, laptops, and desktops that are using
the PushBullet app.
Thus, there is a need to study the sensitivity threshold of the PEAGEM unit for
accurate notification issuance.
Sensitivity
Figure 5 shows the Ground Displacement Sensitivity Flow Chart through
the comparison of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake in Japan and the 1990 Luzon
Earthquake.
Figure 5: Ground Displacement Sensitivity Flow Chart
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As shown in the figure above, the flow chart consists of what the
researchers will do to find the sensitivity of the device, which is finding the ground
displacement of a simulated earthquake scenario. Through comparing the
intensities of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and the 1990 Luzon earthquake, it can
be safe to assume that the PEAGEM unit will accurately detect the seismic
disturbance through its programmed thresholds and delays.
Time of Notification
Figure 6 shows the Notification Process Flow Chart. This flowchart
represents the process on how the notification gets sent out to the devices.
Figure 6: Notification Process Flow Chart
As shown in the figure above, the flow chart consists of the processes
involved in sending out a notification through the PushBullet app. The activation
process will occur once the Accelerometer module has is triggered. Once
triggered, the PushBullet API will receive the alert from the Accelerometer
module and will process out a notification of an impending earthquake. The
length of the time it takes to send out the notification via PushBullet API will be
based on (the internet connection) and afterward making the devices that have
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the PushBullet app retrieve the processed notification. The preparation time
given to the people will be in a maximum of 10 seconds once it has all gone
through the processes. The researchers will keep the internet connection method
constant throughout the study, alongside the simulated epicenter and intensity.
Population, Sample Size and Sampling Technique
The researchers will not be using any form of population, sampling size, and
sampling technique for this study. The study focuses on the experimentation and testing
of a prototype unit and, therefore, does not need any respondents.
A confidence level of 95% will be maintained for hypothesis testing. A 5% margin
of error will be entertained for this study.
Research Instrument
The researchers have used the method of structured observation to gather data
on the live experimentation of the PEAGEM unit. The unit runs through a series of
experiments, including the time when the notifications will reach devices, the sensitivity
of the accelerometer module, and the sensitivity to ground displacement.
The following data gathered is analyzed to measure the effectiveness of the
PEAGEM unit in detecting S-waves and its sensitivity to the displacement of the
earthquake scenario. The method is used to ensure that the overall performance of the
PEAGEM unit is accurate and that it is suitable in a simulation or a real-life scenario.
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Data Gathering Procedure
The research exhibits a combination of two data collection methods. The
experiment method is primarily exhibited during the validation of device sensitivity. Data
collected includes the raw data presented by the accelerometer during testing.
The observation method is primarily be used during the observance of the length
of end-user notification time. Data collected is primarily though direct and first-person
observation by the researchers.
In summary, the collected data that is collected by the researchers are the following:
1. Sensitivity of the unit to displacement in a simulated earthquake scenario.
2. The average notification time to the end user using the PEAGEM unit and
devices using the Pushbullet application.
Statistical Treatment
After collecting the data needed, the researchers tabulated and analyzed the
data with the extensive usage of statistical tools. The statistical tools are enumerated
below alongside their corresponding formulas. Refer to Table 2 for the variables used in
the study.
Independent Intensity of simulated shaking, Simulated Epicenter. si , epicenter
Variable Length of End-User Notification Time, Unit Sensitivity. t, sg
Control PEAGEM prototype, End-user device and internet connection.

Table 2: Independent, Variable and Control Variables used in the study.
1. Sensitivity of the unit will be compared to real ground movement
scenarios. The following scenarios will be used: the Great 2011 Tohoku
Earthquake (9.0Mw, PGA 2.7g) and the 1990 Luzon Earthquake (7.7 Mw,
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PGA 1.22g). The MPU 6050 accelerometer can detect acceleration of ±2g
(where 1g is 9.8/ms).
Where
d= √ (y a ) 2 + (xa ) 2 d = unit displacement in g − f orces
y = y − axis, accelerometer (g)
x = z − axis, accelerometer (g)
Thus, acceleration can be translated into Instrumental Intensity using
Table 1.
Table 1: USGS PGM Instrumental Intensity Table
Unit sensitivity raw data will be analyzed from its mean
displacement for it to be able to detect Moderate earthquakes
(Instrumental Intensity V) and above. See the equation below:
Where:
∑ di d = Average displacement
d= n
di = All of the displacement values
n = Sample size
2. The time used to compute for the mean notification time for the users of
the Early Warning System is the following.
Notification time is defined as the amount of seconds it takes for a
user to have received the PushBullet Notification to his device after the
simulated shaking has begun with the PEAGEM unit.
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The notification time is measured using the mean of central
tendency formula. The researchers are able to determine whether the
EWS is effective in notifying the users at least in an average of 5 seconds.
Where:
∑ xi x = Sample M ean
x = n
xi = All of the x values
n = Sample size
In determining the values needed for the statistical tests such as
the mean, the standard error of the mean, standard deviations and
variances, the researchers utilized the IBM SPSS Statistics program.
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Accelerometer Enabled Earthquake Early Warning System (EWS) as an

Instrument for Notifications Issuance in Simulated Earthquake Environments

Philippine Early Accelerometer-Gyroscope Earthquake Monitor

A Research Paper Presented to

In partial fulfillment of the requirements in

Macaraeg, Marc Gabriel C.

THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND 2

Background of the Study 2

Statement of the Problem 8

Scope and Delimitations 9

Significance of the Study 9

REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE 14

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines 14

Background of Earthquake History in the Philippines 16

The Philippine Earthquake Model 17

Background of Earthquakes P-wave And S-wave 19

Earthquake Early Warning Systems 20

Japanese Meteorological Agency Earthquake Early Warning 21

Usage of Information Communications Technology in the Terms of Early Warning 22

Cellular Broadcast Systems vs. Short Message Services 24

Accelerometer as an Early Warning System 26

Population, Sample Size and Sampling Technique 33

Data Gathering Procedure 33

THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND

Background of the Study

The Philippines is an archipelago nation located directly on the Pacific Ring of

caused by a massive underground movement that produces primary and secondary

waves. Modern seismic detection focuses primarily on detecting P waves; however,

thousands of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars in property every time an

earthquake hits Japan. Early warning systems prioritize instantaneous information

action (Kamigaichi, 2004).

The Philippines' primary earthquake detection institution is the Philippine

Institution of Volcanology and Seismology. PHIVOLCS currently has around 40 seismic

where the epicenter of an earthquake is when it strikes. However, as of 2019, there is

Warning System (PHIVOLCS, 2017).

The nearest form of Earthquake Notification System that exists is managed by

alternative Earthquake Early Warning systems through simulated environments and

Earthquake readiness and preparedness in metropolitan regions. Metro Manila is

theoretical framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural

Concepts and application to debris flow warning.

sensors and a quantitative interpretation of sensor data. The Data Interpretation

determining optimal warning strategies and system congurations.

manifested in different ways that depend on a specific situation. The researchers,

Accelerometer-Gyroscope module. Being surrounded by the Pacific Ring of Fire, this is

resides and is close to fault lines.

Warning System through the use of Raspberry Pi and the Accelerometer-Gyroscope

module that is presented in ​Figure 2.

Figure 2: Variables of the Study

As shown in Figure 2, the independent variable of the study is the earthquake

from the Raspberry Pi and the Accelerometer-Gyroscope module with a 5-second

processes involved in the making of this study (See ​Figure 3​).

Figure 3: Process Flow Chart

As shown in Figure 3, the flow chart consists of the summarized steps to

construction of the prototype comes the Experimentation and Sampling.

Statement of the Problem

This study aims to analyze the viability of utilizing an Accelerometer-Enabled Early

Warning System as an alternative to Cellular Broadcast Notifications Issuance in a

Simulated Earthquake Environment. This would significantly resolve the problem in

to users in Mandaluyong City in an Earthquake simulation?

of AEWS compared to none?

3. What is the significance of having a PushBullet application to every person in the

The hypothesis is tested with a 5% level of significance.

module that is presented in Figure 2.

processes involved in the making of this study (See Figure 3).

H 0 : There is no significant difference in the speed of earthquake notification and

H a : There is a significant difference in the speed of earthquake notification and

1. In terms of residential areas, around ten to five seconds of

2. For commercial uses, this product may be sold to educated individuals

3. In industrial uses, this product may be used to save lives.

c. Energy Companies can link their mainframes and power grids to