Natnael Sitota Sinta

CHAPTER FOUR
ESTIMATION OF WATER POWER POTENTIAL
Contents
 Hydraulics of hydropower
 Hydrological analysis for hydropower development
 Energy and power analysis using FDC
 Estimation of water power potential
 Firm and secondary power
 Load terminologies, Load prediction and demand assessment

Gross head and net head estimation

Gross head and net head:

 Hydraulic head:
 Is the elevation difference the water falls in passing through the plant.
 Gross-Head:
 At a hydroelectric plant is the difference in elevation between the head water
surface and the tail water surface.
 Hydraulic losses:
 Losses due to major and minor friction in conveyance systems.
 Net head/Effective head:
 The elevation difference between the gross head and all hydraulic losses except
those chargeable to the turbine.
 Is the effective head on the turbine and is equal to the gross head minus the
hydraulic losses before entrance to the turbine and outlet losses.
 Is the head available for doing work on the turbine (energy production). Spiral
case and draft tube losses chargeable to the turbine.

For impulse turbine

For reactive turbine

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 Maximum head (Hmax):

 It is the gross head computed from the
difference in elevation between fore
bay level and tailrace level without
spillway discharge.

 Minimum head (Hmin):

 It is the net head computed from the difference in elevation between minimum
fore bay level and tailrace level with all turbines operating at full gate.
 Design head:
 The effective head for which the turbine is designed for best synchronous speed
and efficiency.
 Usually it is the head difference between normal water level and minimum tail
water level.
 Rated head:
 Is the lowest head at which the full-gate discharge of the turbine will produce the
rated capacity of the generator
 It is normally referred to as the rated net head in the guarantee of the manufacturer.
 The term is sometimes used interchangeably with the term effective head
 Critical head:
 The net head or effective head at which full-gate output of the turbine produces
the permissible overload on the generator at unit power factor.
 This head will produce maximum discharge through the turbine.
 "Critical head" is used in studies of cavitation and turbine setting

Water Power (Hydropower) Potential:

 Is electricity from water (the energy contained in water)

 It can be converted in the form of electricity through hydroelectric power plants.
 Is the amount of power generated when Q m3/sec of water is allowed to fall through a
head difference of H meter
 All that is required is
 A continuous inflow of water (Q m3/sec)

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 A difference of height between the water level of the upstream intake of the power
plant and its downstream outlet.
1. Building a dam across a stream
2. Divert a part of the stream by creating a low-head diversion structure like
barrage
 Convey the water to turbines which will transform the energy of the water
[Hydraulic energy] in to mechanical energy further converted to electrical energy
by generators.
 In order to evaluate the power of flowing water,
 Assume a uniform steady flow between two cross-sections for any stretch of a
river, with H (meters) of difference in water surface elevation between two
sections for a flow of Q (m3/s),
 The power (P) can be expressed as

[ ] [ ⁄ ]

Where, V1 and V2 are the mean velocities in the two sections. Neglecting the usually slight
difference in the kinetic energy and assuming a value of γw as 9810N/m2, one obtains the
expression of power as

[ ⁄ ]

[ ]

 The electrical power generated from the hydro plant is the function of the
discharge and head.
 The rate of flow changes along a stretch, the mean value of the discharges
pertaining to the two terminal sections of the stretch is to be substituted in the
( )
equation,

 The above expression gives the theoretical power of the selected river stretch at a
specified discharge.
 The theoretical power resources of any river or river system are given by the total
of the values computed for the individual stretches,

∑ [ ]

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 The actual use of the equation for estimating the potential, Pp, however, is made
difficult due to the fact that the discharge of any river varies over a wide range.
 Hydropower potential is commonly divided into three categories:
1. Theoretical Power Potential
2. Technical Power Potential
3. Economic Power Potential
 Theoretical Power Potential
 The gross theoretical potential is the sum of the potential of all natural flows from
the largest rivers to the smallest rivulets, regardless of the inevitable losses and
unfeasible sites.
 Technical Power Potential
 From technical point of view, extremely low heads (less than around 0.5m), head
losses in water ways, efficiency losses in the hydraulic and electrical machines,
are considered as infeasible. Hence, the technically usable hydro potential is
substantially less than the theoretical value.
 Economic Power Potential
 Economic potential is only that part of the potential of more favorable sites which
can be regarded as economic compared to alternative sources of power like oil and
coal. Economically feasible potential, therefore, would change with time, being
dependent upon the cost of alternate power sources. This potential is constantly
updated and shows an increasing trend with the exhausting stock of fossil fuel.
 In order to evaluate the potential of power that may be generated by harnessing the drop
in water levels in a river between two points, it is necessary to have knowledge of the
hydrology or stream flow of the site, since that would be varying every day. Even the
average monthly discharges over a year would vary. Similarly, these monthly averages
would not be the same for consecutive years.

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 Hence, in order to evaluate the hydropower potential of a site, the following criteria are
considered:
 Minimum potential power, or theoretical capacity, computed from the minimum
flow available for 100%, of time (365 days or 8760 hours). This is represented as
P100.
 Small potential power. The theoretical capacity of 95% can be derived from the
discharge available for 95% duration (flow available for 8322 hours). This is
represented as P95.
 Median or average potential power. The theoretical capacity of 50% can be
computed from the discharge available for 50% duration (flow available for 6
months or 4380 hours). This is represented as P50.
 Mean potential power. The value of theoretical mean capacity can be ascertained
by taking into account the average of mean flow. The average of mean flow is
understood as the arithmetic mean of annual mean discharges for a period of 10 to
30 years. The annual mean discharge is the value that equalizes the area of the
annual flow duration curve corresponding to this mean year. This is known as
„Gross river power potential‟ and is represented as Pm.

 Since it is not economically feasible to harness the entire runoff of a river during flood (as
that would require a huge storage), there is no reason for including the entire magnitude
of peak flows while calculating potential power or potential annual energy.

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Economic significance of potential water resources of a site:

 This is influenced by a great number of factors than hydraulic, such as geographical,

geological and topographical conditions, energy demand, etc.
 Ignoring these and comparing relative values of power potential as reflected by hydraulic
conditions only, the following four aspects are to be taken into consideration:
1. The absolute quantity of theoretical water power resources,
2. The relative share of discharge in the power.
Among the hydraulic possibilities representing equal magnitudes, the more
advantageous are those where the power in question originates from a
smaller flow and a higher head.
It is advantageous of highland developments over power stations situated
in hilly regions or lowland areas.
3. The relative annual fluctuation of available potential power.
This can be characterized by the ratio of the values Pp50 to the values Pp95
(or Pp100).

A smaller ratio reflects a more favorable hydraulic possibility.

4. The over year or multi-annual variation of potential power.
This can be characterized either by a simple diagram showing the annual
potential power against time, or by a summation curve of annual values.
Power resources can be characterized even by annual values of potential
energy in a river, by the quantities of work,
E100 , E95, E50 and Em
All expressed in kilowatt-hours.
These values can be computed as areas of the lower parts of the potential
power-duration curves. If the head is assumed to be constant, independent
of discharge, the computation can be based on the discharge-duration
curve. Using the curve,

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( )

( ∑ ) ( )

Where,
t = the duration considered in days,
Qt = Selected discharge,
Qi = Daily mean of actual discharge at any time,
F = Area pertaining to Qt (shaded area).
The upper limit of potential energy inherent in the river section is obtained
by,

( ) ( )
Where, Nm is the annual mean power.
The overall coefficient is about 0.75 or 0.80. The recommended equation
is,

( )∑

Qm = the arithmetic mean discharge. Net river energy potential,

For characterizing the gross potential power of a river basin, the following
data should be used,

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Hydraulics of Hydropower

 In considering hydraulic theory in hydropower engineering, it is important to relate the

concept of power to the fundamental variable of head and discharge.
 Three approaches are available to establish this relationship
1. Energy –Work approach
2. Bernoulli equation approach (Energy equation)
3. Kinetic Theory

Energy-work approach

 Consider an elemental volume of water dv.

 If the elemental volume of water dv moves from
position 1 slightly below the head water level to
position 2 at the surface of the tail water, the work
done is represented by dw.

𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤(𝐖) 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬
∗ 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞
𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤(𝐖) 𝐖𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 ∗ 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐬

𝐝𝐰 𝛒𝒘 ∗ 𝐝𝒗 ∗ 𝐠 ∗ 𝐡

Where: ρw = Density of water, kg/m3

dw = Work done by elemental volume of water, joules
g = Acceleration due to gravity, m/s2
dv = Elemental volume of water falling,m3
h = Vertical distance moved by the elemental volume of water, m (effective head)
 To account for the head loss in the penstock, position 1 is taken at a level lower than the
headwater surface level.
 If the elemental volume of water dv moves from position 1 to 2 in some differential units
of time dt, the elemental discharge is then;

𝒅𝒒 𝒅𝒗 𝒅𝒕

 Therefore, the power extracted by the hydropower unit is the rate of doing work and can
be represented mathematically as follows;
𝒐𝒓𝒌
𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆

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𝒅𝒑 𝒅𝒘 𝒅𝒕 ( 𝒅𝒗𝒈𝒉) 𝒅𝒕 𝒈𝒅𝒒𝒉 𝒐𝒕𝒆 𝒅𝒒 𝒅𝒗 𝒅𝒕

Where; dp = elemental amount of power, Watt

 Summing the elemental power components of the total discharge passing through the
turbine;

𝒑 𝒈 𝒉

 The foregoing equations are for theoretical conditions. The actual output is diminished by
the fact that that the turbine has losses in transforming the potential and kinetic energy
into mechanical energy. Thus an efficiency term η, usually called overall efficiency, must
be introduced to give the standard power equation;

𝒑 𝒈 𝒉

Bernoulli (Energy) equation approach

 The Bernoulli equation is related to the energy

grade line, hydraulic grade line, and the
position grade lines, using the Energy
Equation.

𝑽𝟏 𝟐 𝑷𝟏 𝑽𝟐 𝟐 𝑷𝟐
𝒁𝟏 𝒁𝟐 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒕
𝟐𝒈 𝜸 𝟐𝒈 𝜸

Where: V1 and V2 = water velocity at point 1 and 2

P1 and P2 = pressure at point 1 and 2
γ = ρg = specific weight of water
Z1 and Z2 = potential head at point 1 and 2

Considering frictional loses:

 The Bernoulli equation for the hydropower
installation is written between point 1 at the
surface of the fore-bay and point 2 at the
entrance to the turbine

𝑉1 𝑃1 𝑉 𝑃
𝑍 𝑍 𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡
𝑔 𝛾 𝑔 𝛾

Where: V1 and V2 = water velocity at point 1and 2

P1 and P2 = pressure at point 1 and 2
γ = ρg = specific weight of water
Z1 and Z2 = potential head at point 1and 2
hf = head loss in flow passage between
points 1 and 2

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 When the Bernoulli equation is written between point 2 and point 3 which is the surface
of water at the exit to the draft tube;

𝑽 𝑽
𝒁 𝒁 𝒉
𝒈 𝜸 𝒈 𝜸
 For practical purpose, V1,P1 and P3 are set to zero, solving for P2

𝑽
𝒁 𝒁 𝐡𝒇
𝜸 𝒈

 Solving for h;

𝑽 𝑽
𝒉 𝒁 𝒁
𝒈 𝜸 𝒈
𝑽 𝑽 𝑽
𝒉 (𝒁 𝒁 𝐡𝒇 ) 𝒁 𝒁
𝒈 𝒈 𝒈
𝑽
𝒉 𝒁 𝒁 𝐡𝒇
𝒈
h; is the net head or the effective head

 Because the Bernoulli equation defines terms in units of N meter per N of water flowing
through the system, it should be recognized that the N of water flowing through the
turbine per unit of time by definition is

 The theoretical power delivered by the water to the turbine as;

𝒑 𝒈 𝒉
Hydrology of Hydropower

 Parameters necessary in making hydropower studies are water discharge (Q) and
hydraulic head (H). The measurement and analyses of these parameters are primarily
hydrologic problems.
 Determination of the head for a proposed hydropower plant is a surveying problem that
identifies elevations of water surfaces as they are expected to exist during operation of the
hydropower plant.
 The gross head of any proposed scheme can be assessed by simple surveying techniques
or digital elevation model.

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 Hydrological studies will provide data on the flow of water, one of the main parameters
used in hydropower planning.
 The available river flow rate can assessed through the study of hydrological data on
rainfall and runoff essential in order to assess the available water quantities.
 The following hydrological data are necessary for potential assessment:
 Historical series of daily, weekly, monthly flows over a period of several years, to
determine the plant capacity & estimated output.
 Historical series of daily, monthly or annual total of rainfall
 Low flows, to assess the primary, firm, or dependable power.
 All planning in hydrology terms is predicted on the assumption that the past history of
water occurrence will be repeated in future.

Why is a hydrological assessment indispensable?

 The hydrological study is the basis for the design of the project
 Determination of capacity to be installed (design of civil structures & electromechanical
equipment)
 Calculation of monthly energy production
 Calculation of yearly energy production
 Statement about the profitability of the plant

The hydrologic studies required while planning and designing of a hydropower

project:

 Flow duration analysis  Area capacity curve

 Headwater rating curve  Reservoir rule curve
 Tail water rating curve  Spillway design flood analysis
Flow Duration Curve

 A graphical representation of runoff. It is the plot of discharge versus percentage of time a

particular discharge can be expected to be equaled or exceeded.

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 A useful way of treating the time variability of water discharge data in hydropower
studies.
 Is merely recorders flows in order of magnitude instead of the time ordering
(Chronologies) of flows versus time plot (shows how flow is distributed over a period
(usually a year)).
 Is also allows the characterizing of the flow over long periods of time to be presented in
one compact curve.
 Methods of computing:
 Rank-ordered technique
 Class-interval technique
 The slope of flow duration curve depends upon the interval of the data. The slope of flow
duration curve from daily data is steeper than that of average monthly data.
 Is decreasing curve. With the increase in probability of exceedence, the flow decreases.
 The flow curve of intermittent river ends before probability of exceedance reaches 100%
 Area under flow duration curve gives flow volume. The storage will affect the flow
duration curve i.e., reducing the extreme flows and increasing the very low flows
 With the increase in storage, the flow duration curve is flatter

 Is actually a river discharge frequency curve and the longer the period of record, the more
accurate is the indication of the long term yield of a stream
 As the time interval increases the range of the curve decreases
 While daily flow rates of small storms are useful for the pondage studies in a run-
off river power development plant,
 Monthly flow rates for a number of years are useful in power development plants
from a large storage reservoir.
 In such a case two different methods are in use.
 The total period method, and
 The calendar year method

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 A steep flow duration curve: - implies a flashy catchment – one which is subject to
extreme floods and droughts.
 Factors which cause a catchment to be flashy are:
Rocky, shallow soil Steep, short streams
Lack of vegetation cover Uneven rainfall (frequent storms, long dry periods)
 Steep FDC is bad for hydropower development (especially run-of-river type).
 A flat flow duration curve is good because it means that the total annual flow will be
spread more evenly over the year, giving a useful flow for longer periods, and less severe
floods.
 Gives useful flow for longer periods and less severe floods
 Factors which cause a catchment to be flat are:
Deep soil Long gently sloping streams
Heavy vegetation Bogs, marshes
Even rainfall (temperate climate)

Uses of FDC

 Helps to evaluate the flow expected certain % of time (Assess the dependability of the
discharge, used in assessing dependable power in ROR plant with or without pondage).
 Useful in planning and design of water resource projects (Determine the potential for firm
power).
 Helps in design of drainage systems and in the flood control structures
 FDC plotted in log graph provides the qualitative description of the runoff availability in
the stream

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 If the sediment rating curve is available for the given stream, the FDC can be converted
into cumulative sediment transport curve by multiplying each flow rate by its rate of
sediment transport. The area under this curve represents the total amount of sediment
transported.

Probability of exceedance

 Is the probability of a particular parameter being equaled or exceeded during a certain

period
 It is calculated by using empirical formula
 California formula,

( )

 Weibull‟s formula

( )

Where, M = Rank and N = Total number of data

Power duration curve

 It is the plot of power versus percentage of time exceedance of discharge

 PDC can be plotted in similar manner once power is calculated using

 Power duration curve indicates power available in the stream for the given percentage of
time

Firm power

 Is the power which is always ensured to a consumer at any hour of the day and is, thus,
completely dependable power (which can be guaranteed at all times).
 It is maximum continuous power obtainable from a plant under the most adverse
hydraulic conditions.
 The net amount of power which is continuously available from a plant without any break
on firm.
 Is would correspond to the minimum stream flow without consideration of storage and is
available for all the times for run-of-river plant.
 The power that is always available from the stream, even at times of lowest flow and
lowest head.

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 This type of supply is distinguished from the supply governed by the availability of water,
which is often termed “secondary”.
 The power, which can be produced by a plant with no risk, which corresponds to the
continuous 24 hrs flow available (100% of time).
 For a single hydroelectric plant, it corresponds to the min. availability of storage.
 Such power can be increased by use of the pondage/reservoir.

 The firm capacity relies on the minimum stream flow during the peak load period as well
as available storage, shape and size of linked load curve and the interconnection of other
existing plants.
 Firm energy is marketed with high price.

Secondary (Surplus) power

 Is the power other than the firm power and is, thus, comparatively less valuable as it is
available intermittently at unpredictable time.
 The power that is available in excess of firm power during the off peak hours
 The plant can deliver the secondary power only for a part of the year (for some
percentage of time).
 Supply available as a result of seasonal excess of water or abnormal runoffs is termed
“surplus” as the alternative to generation is letting the water run off (spilling).
 The secondary power is useful in an interconnected system of power plants
 In a run-of-river plant, the secondary power is available when the discharge in the river is
greater than the minimum discharge.
 Secondary power cannot be relied upon or no guarantee
 Its rate is usually less than that of firm power

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 It can be generated ~9 to 14 hours/day

Spill energy

 The amount of water that is spilled due to limitation of maximum usable flow
 The energy that could have been produced from the spilled water is called spill energy

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LOAD TERMINOLOGIES
Load and Demand:

 Power is needed for a variety of purposes such as:

 Domestic  Municipal
 Commercial  Agricultural
 Industrial  Public transport etc.
 The unit of electrical energy for consumption is kilowatt--hour
 The terms load and demand are used synonymously
 Load: the amount of power that is actually delivered to or received by consumers
at any instant.
 Power demand: refers to the total amount of power needed or desired by
consumer (which consumers choose) at any instant of time to connect to the
supplying power system.

Types of Load:

 A device which taps electrical energy from the electric power system is called a load on
the system. The load may be resistive (e.g., electric lamp), inductive (e.g., induction
motor), capacitive or some combination of them.
 The various types of loads on the power system are:
 Domestic Load  Municipal Load
 Commercial Load  Irrigation Load
 Industrial Load  Traction Load
Load curves:

 It is a graphical representation of power consumption with respect to time.

 Is a graph of the total load consumption with respect to the time to connect to the
supplying power system.
 The curve showing the variation of demand or electrical load on the power station with
respect to time or can be defined as is a graph of load consumption with respect to time
and directly gives an indication of power used at any time (daily, weekly, monthly,
annually, etc.).
 The load on power station is never constant; it varies depending up on consumption.
 The amount of load that is used at various hours of the day or the curve showing the
variation of load on the power station with respect to time.

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 It may be seen that load curve indicates at a glance the general character of the load that
is being imposed on the plant.
 A load curve may be daily, Weekly, Monthly or Annual upon the requirement of load
analysis.
 These load variations during the whole day (i.e. 24 hour) recorded half-hourly or
hourly and are plotted against time and the curve obtained is daily load curve.
 A Daily Load Curve: is a curve drawn between load as the ordinate and time in
hours as the abscissa for one day. It shows the variation of load w.r.t time during
the day.
 Monthly load curve: obtained from the daily load curves of that month. For this
purpose, average values of power over a month at different times of the day are
calculated and then plotted on the graph. The monthly load curve is generally
used to fix the rates of energy.
 Yearly load curve: is obtained by considering the monthly load curves of that
particular year. The yearly load curve is generally used to determine the
annual load factor.

 Daily load curves: Supply the following information:

 Shows the variations of load on the power station during different hours of the day.
 Used to plan how much power will be needed to generate at any given time.
 The area under the daily load curve gives the number of units generated in the day.

𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒖𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒔 𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒅𝒂𝒚 𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂 (𝒊𝒏 𝒌 𝒉) 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒅𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆
 The highest point on the daily load curve represents the maximum demand on the
station on that day.

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 The area under the daily load curve divided by the total number of hours gives the
average load on the station in the day.

𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂( 𝒊𝒏 𝒌𝒘𝒉)𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒅𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆

𝐀𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅
𝟒 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔
 The ration of the area under the load curve to the total area of rectangle in which it
is contained gives the load factor.

𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅 ∗ 𝟒

𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒂𝒙 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒂𝒙 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 ∗ 𝟒
𝑨𝒓𝒆𝒂 ( 𝒊𝒏 𝒌𝒘𝒉)𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒅𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒂 𝒐𝒇 𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆 𝒊𝒔 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒅

 Helps to determine the average load for the duration of plotting and also the
maximum load used at any time
 The load curve helps in selecting the size and number of generating units.
 The load curve helps in preparing the operation schedule of the station.

Base Load, Average load and Peak Load on Power Station:

 The power generated by hydropower plants are normally connected to the national
power grid from which the various withdrawals are made at different places, for
different purposes.
 The changing load on the power station makes its load curve of variable nature.
 It is clear that load on the power station varies from time to time. However, a
close look at the load curve reveals that load on the power station can be
considered in three parts, namely
1. Base load
2. Average load
3. Peak load
 Base Load
 The total load that is continuously exceeded.
 The unvarying load which occurs almost the whole day on the station.
 As base load on the station is almost of constant nature, therefore, it can be
suitably supplied without facing the problems of variable load
 Average Load
 The average consumption over a defined time period.
 Is the total load produced divided by the number of hours in the time period of
interest. The area under the curve divided by time.

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 Peak Load
 Is the maximum instantaneous load of the demand or a maximum average load
over a specified period of time
 The highest instantaneous value of demand load.
 Generally, peak load is defined as that part of the load carried at intensity greater
than 4/3 times the mean load intensity.
 The peak load on the station determines the size of the hydro plant and its cost.

Load Duration Curves:

 Obtained when the load elements of a load curve are arranged in the order of
descending magnitude

 Fundamentally the load-duration curve is nothing more than a rearrangement of all the
load elements of a chronological curve in the order of descending magnitude.
 The load duration curve is obtained from the same data as the load curve but the
ordinates are arranged in the order of descending magnitudes.
 In other words, the maximum load is represented to the left and decreasing loads are
represented to the right in the descending order.

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 The area under the load duration curve represents the total energy production for that
duration.
 The area under the curve of a daily chronological load curve measures the total energy
consumed by the load during the day.
 The following points may be noted about load duration curve:
1. Is used in hydroelectric power plants to illustrate the relationship between
generating capacity requirements and capacity utilization
2. The load duration curve gives the data in a more presentable form. In other words,
it readily shows the number of hours during which the given load has prevailed.
3. The area under the load duration curve for a given time is equal to that of the
corresponding load curve for the same particular period of time. Obviously, area
under daily load duration curve (in kWh) will give the units generated on that day
or the energy demanded by the system.
4. It can be used in economic disputing, system planning and reliability evaluation.
5. It is more convenient to deal with it than the load curve.
6. The load duration curve can be extended to include any period of time. By laying
out the abscissa from 0 hour to 8760 hours, the variation and distribution of
demand for an entire year can be summarized in one curve. The curve thus
obtained is called the annual load duration curve.

Important Terms and Factors

 The variable load problem introduced the following terms and factors:
 Total Installed capacity: The total capacity in kilowatts or megawatts of all the
turbine generator units installed in a power house.
 Connected load: It is the sum of continuous ratings of all the equipment's
connected to supply system.
 Maximum demand:
It is the greatest demand of load on the power station during a given period.
Maximum demand is generally less than the connected load because all the
consumers do not switch on their connected load to the system at a time.
The knowledge of maximum demand is very important as it helps in
determining the installed capacity of the station. The station must be capable
of meeting the maximum demand.

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 Demand factor: It is the ratio of maximum demand on the power station to its
rated load connected to the system

𝒂𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒖𝒎 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅
𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒐𝒏𝒏𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅

Is usually less than 1 is expected because maximum demand on the power

station is generally less than the connected load.
The knowledge of demand factor is vital in determining the capacity of the
plant equipment.
 Average load:
The average of loads occurring on the power station in a given period (day or
month or year).
It can also be expressed as the ration of energy transmitted in a certain period
to the number of hours in that period
We may derive daily, monthly or annual average load as per the duration of
time period such as a day, a month or a year respectively

𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒖𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒔(𝒌𝒘𝒉)𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒏 𝒂 𝒅𝒂𝒚
𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅
𝟒 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔
𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒖𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒔(𝒌𝒘𝒉)𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒏 𝒂 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉
𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒍𝒚 𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅
𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒂 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉
𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒖𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒔(𝒌𝒘𝒉)𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒏 𝒂 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓
𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒍𝒚 𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅
𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔

 Load factor:-
The ratio of average load to the peak load in given range of time (daily,
weekly, monthly yearly) during the same period
Measures the degree of variation of the load over a period of time.
The area under a load curve is energy consumed in (KWh) (total energy
production during the period). Thus the load factor can also be defined as: as
the ratio of the actual energy consumed during 24 hours to the peak demand
assumed to continue for 24 hours, i.e.

𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅
𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒂𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒖𝒎 𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅

If the plant is in operation for T hours

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𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 ∗ 𝑻 𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒔 𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒏 𝑻 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔

𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒂𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒖𝒎 𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 ∗ 𝑻 𝒂𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒖𝒎 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑻 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔

Max. Load - determines plant capacity

The load factor may be daily load factor, monthly load factor or annual load
factor if the time period considered is a day or month or year.
The load factor measures variation only and does not give any indication of
the precise shape of the load-duration curve.
Load factor is always less than 1 because average load is smaller than the
maximum demand.
The load factor plays key role in determining the overall cost per unit
generated. Higher the load factor of the power station, lesser will be the cost
per unit generated.
Gives an idea of degree of utilization of capacity.
 Load factor approaching zero: The load curve will approach a narrow spike (L-
shape), indicating a peak load of very short duration with very low or no load
during the major portion of the time.

 Load factor approaching one: The load curve will be somewhat rectangular in
appearance, indicating high sustained loads.

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 Capacity factor or Plant factor:

It is the ratio of actual energy produced by the plant for any given period of
time to the maximum possible energy that would be capable of producing at
its full capacity for that period of time.
The extent of use of the generating plant is measured by the capacity factor,
frequently also termed plant factor or plant use factor.
If during a given period a plant is kept fully loaded, it is evident that it is
used to the maximum extent, or operated at 100% capacity factor.
The factor is equal to the average load divided by the rated capacity of the
plant.
𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒈𝒚 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒆𝒅 𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 ∗𝑻
𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓 =
𝒂𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒖𝒎 𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒈𝒚 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒃𝒆𝒆𝒏 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒆𝒅 𝒖𝒍𝒍 𝒑𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒕 𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒊𝒕𝒚∗𝑻

Thus if the considered period is one year,

𝑨𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒌𝒘𝒉 𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝒑𝒖𝒕
𝑨𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒕 𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒕 𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒊𝒕𝒚
The capacity factor for hydroelectric plants generally varies between
0.25 and 0.75.
Every plant requires a reserve capacity to take care of the future expansion
and increase in load. Capacity factor is an indication of the reserve capacity
of the plant. A power station is so designed that it has some reserve capacity
for meeting the increased load demand in future.
Therefore, the installed capacity of the plant is always somewhat greater than
the maximum demand on the plant.

It is interesting to note that difference between load factor and plant capacity
factor is an indication of reserve capacity.
Therefore total installed capacity of the plant is usually greater than that
actually required (maximum demand)
If the maximum demand on the plant is equal to the plant capacity, then load
factor and plant capacity factor will have the same value. In such a case, the
plant will have no reserve capacity. The load factor would be different if the
plant were not used to its full capacity.

𝒆𝒂𝒌 𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒅 ∗ 𝑳𝒐𝒂𝒅 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓

𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒕

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 Utilization factor:
Measures the use made of the total installed capacity of the plant. It is defined
as the ratio of the peak load to the rated capacity of the power plant.
Is the ratio of the quantity of water actually utilized for power production to
that available in the river. If the head is assumed to be constant, then the
utilization factor would be equal to the ratio of power utilized to that available.

𝒕𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒛𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒖𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒛𝒆𝒅 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒑𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
𝒖𝒂𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒘𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒂𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓

If the water head is assumed to be constant then the utilization factor is:

𝒂𝒙 𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒛𝒆𝒅
𝒕𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒛𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒂𝒙 𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒂𝒗𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆
Utilization factor for a plant depends upon the type of system of which it is a
part of.
For hydroelectric plants, this factor varies from 0.4 to 0.9 depending on plant
capacity, load factor & storage.
 A low utilization factor may mean that:
The plant is used only for stand-by purposes on a system comprised of several
stations or that capacity has been installed well in advance of need.
 A high utilization factor may mean that:
The plant is probably the most efficient in the system (in the case of high
plant system).
In the case of isolated plants a high value means the likelihood of good design
with some reserve-capacity allowance
 If the load factor is very high and there is enough available water, the utilization
factor can go as high as 1.0.

From the definition of the three factors in the foregoing discussion it will be evident that

( ) ( )

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 Diversity factor:
The ration of sum of the individual maximum demand of all the consumers
supplied by power station to the simultaneous maximum demand of it

𝒖𝒎 𝒐𝒇 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒅𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒎𝒂𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒖𝒎 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒔

𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓
𝒂𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒖𝒎 𝒅𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒐𝒏 𝒑𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
If there be four different types of load L1, L2, L3 and L4 and the peak load
from the combination of these loads is LP, then the diversity factor is
expressed as:

𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓

For n load combination:

∑𝒊𝒊 𝒏
𝑳𝒊
𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒇𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓

A power station supplies load to various types of consumers whose maximum

demands generally do not occur at the same time.
The sum of different types of individual maximum demand all the consumers
connected to a power station is always greater than the maximum demand on
the installation
Note that the diversity factor has a value which is greater than unity. It value
could be one 1, which indicates the maximum demand of the individual sub-
system occurs simultaneously.
The greater the diversity factor, the lesser is the cost of generation of power.
An area served by a power plant having different types of load, peaking at
different times, the installed capacity is determined by dividing the total of
maximum peak load by diversity factor.

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Load Prediction and Demand Assessment

 Energy demand (local, regional, and trans-regional) is subject to considerable temporal
fluctuations.
 These variations could be from hour to hour within a day, from day to day within a
week/month, from month to month within a year, etc.
 These seasonal fluctuations depend on:
 Weather, season;
 Vacation times;
 Cyclical business activity.
 Daily fluctuations are due to:
Rhythm of work time and free time;
Weather;
Traffic.
 Estimation of future power loads of a specific system is a primary step for hydropower
development planning or operation management studies
 For the installation of a new power plant or for the expansion of the existing power
plant, it is necessary to estimate the total amount of load that would be required to be
met for various purposes.
 The economics of the installation or expansion of a power plant calls for the correct
prediction or forecasting of the power demand.
 Load predications are usually based on the rate at which the energy consumption has
increased over the past few years
 Load forecasting may be done either for:
 Short-term (< 5 years)
 Medium-term (around 10 years)
 Long-term (> 20 years) periods
 The short-term forecasting is usually done for operation planning of existing power
plants, while the medium-term forecast is the basis for expansion program of power
generation facilities.
 The long-term forecast helps in the formulation of the country‟s perspective plan for
power generation.

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Methods of estimating future power loads (Basic load forecasting techniques):

 Three methods have been used for estimating future power loads (American Society of
Civil Engineers, 1989)
1. Trend analysis: based on extending historical trends and modifying the
projections to reflect expected changes
2. End-use analysis: based on the expected use of electricity by different users
3. Econometric analysis: Based on the relationships between electricity demand
and various factors that influence demand
 Each of the forecasting methods uses a different approach to determine electricity
demand during a specific year in a particular place.
 Each forecasting method is distinctive in its handling of the four basic forecast
ingredients:
 The mathematical expressions of the relationship between power demand and the
factors which influence or affect it – the functions.
 The factors which actually influence the power demand (population, income, price,
etc.) – the independent variables.
 Power demand itself – the dependent variables.
 How much power demand changes in response to population, income, price, etc.,
changes – the elasticity‟s

Trend Analysis

 Trend analysis extends past growth rates of power demand into the future.
 It focuses on past changes or movements in demand and uses them to predict future
changes in the demand.
 The advantage of trend analysis is that;
 It is simple, quick and inexpensive to perform.
 It is useful when there is no enough data to use more sophisticated methods or
when time and funding do not allow for a more elaborate approach.
 The disadvantage of trend analysis is that;
 It produces only one result – future power demand.
 It doesn‟t help analyze why power demand behaves the way it does,
 It provides no means to accurately measure how changes in energy prices.

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End-Use Analysis

 The basic idea of end-use analysis is that the demand for power depends on what it is
used for (the end-use).
 For instance, by studying historical data to find out how much power is used for
individual electrical appliances in homes, then multiplying that number by the projected
number of appliances in each home and multiplying again by the projected number of
homes, an estimate of how much power will be needed to run all household appliances
in a geographical area during any particular year in the future can be determined.
 Using similar techniques for power used in business and industry, and then adding up
the totals for residential, commercial and industrial sectors, a total forecast of power
demand can be derived.

[( 𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒖𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒍𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆) 𝒓𝒐𝒋𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒐 𝒐𝒇

𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒍𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆] 𝒓𝒐𝒋𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒔𝒆𝒔

 Advantage:
 It identifies exactly where power goes and how much is used for each purpose.
 Disadvantage:
 It assumes a constant relationship between power and end-use, for example,
power used per appliance but, in actual case, energy saving technology or energy
prices will undoubtedly change with time, and the relationship will not remain
constant
 End-use analysis also requires extensive data.

Econometric Analysis

 Uses economics, mathematics, and statistics to forecast power demand.

 It is a combination of trend analysis and end-use analysis, but it does not make the
trend analyst‟s assumption that future power demand can be projected based on past
demand.
 Moreover, unlike end-use method, it can allow for variations in the relationship
between power input and end-use.
 Uses complex mathematical equations to show past relationships between demand and
the factors which influence the demand.
 For instance, an equation can show how power demand in the past reacted to
population growth, price changes, etc.

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 For each influencing factor, the equation can show whether the factor caused an
increase or decrease in a power demand.
 The equation is then tested and fine-tuned to make sure that it is a reliable a
representation as possible of the past relationships.
 Once this is done, projected values of demand-influencing factors (population, income,
prices) are put in to the equation to make the forecast.
 Advantage:
 It provides detailed information on future levels of power demand, why future
power demand increases or decreases, and how power demand is affected by all
the various factors.
 It is flexible and useful for analyzing load growth under different scenarios.
 Disadvantage:
 The assumption that the changes in the power demand caused by changes in the
factors influencing that demand remain the same in the forecast period as in the
past. However, this constant elasticity assumption is hard to justify in reality.

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