INDEPENDENT EVENTS

 When the outcome of 2nd event is independent on the outcome of the 1st
event.

 When an item is drawn from a container but IS REPLACED, resulting in a

SAME total number of outcomes (denominator).

Since CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY is defined as

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
𝑷(𝑨/𝑩) =
𝑷(𝑩)
Event 𝐴 AND 𝐵

Event 𝐴 GIVEN
event 𝐵 occurred:

Event 𝐵 was 1st

event

Making the 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) the subject we get

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵)
Since event 𝐵
has no affect on
event 𝐴
For the independent events 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) × 𝑷(𝑩)

MULTIPLICATION
RULE
Example 1: A card is chosen at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. A second
card is chosen after replacing the first drawn card. What is the probability that the
first card is a queen and the second card is a king?
The card
Solution:
drawn WAS
REPLACED
into the deck,
4 leaving 52
𝑃(𝑄𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 𝑃(𝑄) =
52 cards in deck
4 for 2nd draw.
𝑃(𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑎 𝑄𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑛 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒) = 𝑃(𝐾/𝑄) =
52

𝑃(𝐾∩𝑄)
If 𝑃(𝐾/𝑄) =
𝑃(𝑄)

∴ 𝑃( 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛) = 𝑃(𝐾 ∩ 𝑄) = 𝑃(𝐾/𝑄) × 𝑃(𝑄)

4 4 Made the subject

𝑃(𝐾 ∩ 𝑄) = ×
52 52 of the formula
𝟏
∴ 𝑷(𝑲 ∩ 𝑸) =
𝟏𝟔𝟗

Example 2: A bag contains 5 red balls and 7 white balls. A white ball was drawn
from the bag and was REPLACED. Calculate the probability that the second ball
removed is a red?

Another way of asking the question can be:

Calculate the probability that the first ball is white ball and the second ball is
red?
Solution:
7
If 𝑃(𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑊) =
12

5
𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑎 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑛 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑅/𝑊) = 𝑃(𝑅) =
12

7 5
𝑃( 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙) = 𝑃(𝑊 ∩ 𝑅) = 𝑃(𝑊) × 𝑃(𝑅) = ×
12 12

𝟑𝟓
∴ 𝑷( 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒕𝒆 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝒃𝒂𝒍𝒍) =
𝟏𝟒𝟒

See video link to understand the difference between independent and dependent
events:
https://youtu.be/gNRT2KoyT7U
Independent vs Dependent Events

Independent events require the replacement of the item on the contain it is drawn
from (so that total remains the SAME irrelevant the amount of draws).

Hence uses :
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

Dependent events require some condition that occurs before the next draw (so the
total CHANGES every time.)

Hence uses:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵)

NOTE: To determine if the events are independent, 𝑃 (𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵)

Example 3: A bag contains 10 marbles in which 4 are white. What is the
probability of drawing a white marble two times in a row, if the marble is

(a) REPLACED in the bag?

Solution: INDEPENDENT
EVENT.
4
𝑃(𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) =
10
4 4 16
𝑃(𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = × =
10 10 100

(b) NOT REPLACED in the bag?

Solution:

4
𝑃(𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) =
10 DEPENDENT
EVENT.
4 3 12
𝑃(𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = × =
10 9 90

See video link below to understand the difference between dependent and
independent events:
https://youtu.be/gNRT2KoyT7U
Example 4: A card is drawn from a well-shuffled ordered deck of 52 playing cards.
Are the following events independent?

(a)Event 𝐸: the card is an 8 ; Event 𝐹: the card is a face card?

𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛:
4 1
𝑃(𝐸) = =
52 13

0
𝑃(𝐸/𝐹) =
12
12
But 𝑃(𝐹) =
52

Since 𝑃(𝐹) ≠ 𝑃(𝐸/𝐹) then they are DEPENDENT EVENTS.

(b)Event 𝐸: the card is an 8 ; Event 𝐻: the card is a heart?

𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛:
4 1
𝑃(𝐸) = =
52 13

1
𝑃(𝐸/𝐻) =
13
1
But 𝑃(𝐻) =
13

Since 𝑃(𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐸/𝐻) then they are INDEPENDENT EVENTS.

See video link below for the demonstration of example 4:

https://youtu.be/1wuRV5z0PPE?t=962