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Economics of Markets
Neoclassical Theory, Experiments, and Theory
of Classical Price Discovery
Sabiou M. Inoua Vernon L. Smith
Economic Science Institute Economic Science Institute
Chapman University Chapman University
Orange, CA, USA Orange, CA, USA
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
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Acknowledgments
v
Contents
1 Prologue 1
2 Introduction 9
3 Rediscovering Classical Economics in the Laboratory 21
4 Price Formation: Overview of the Theory 39
5 Price Formation: Partial Equilibrium 93
6 Price Formation: General Equilibrium 131
7 Financial Instability: Re-tradable Assets
and Speculation 157
Index 183
vii
List of Figures
ix
x LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 7.1 Ford motor company stock: (a) Price; (b) Return
(in percent); (c) Cumulative distribution of volatility
in log–log scale, and a linear fit of the tail, with a slope
close to 3; (d) Autocorrelation function of return, which
is almost zero at all lags, while that of volatility is
nonzero over a long range of lags (a phenomenon known
as volatility clustering) 164
Fig. 7.2 S&P 500 index: (a) Price; (b) Return (in percent);
(c) Cumulative distribution of absolute return; (d)
Autocorrelation function of return and absolute return 165
Fig. 7.3 US–UK exchange rate: (a) Exchange rate; (b) Return
(in percent); (c) Cumulative distribution of absolute
return; (d) Autocorrelation function of return and absolute
return 166
Fig. 7.4 Bitcoin: (a) Price; (b) Return (in percent); (c) Cumulative
distribution of absolute return; (d) Autocorrelation
function of return and absolute return 167
Fig. 7.5 A lab asset price volatility (Data source Kirchler and Huber
[2009, Market 5]) 168
Fig. 7.6 Big volatility clusters triggered by major events (Crises) 169
Fig. 7.7 A purely speculative asset market model: the simplest
case of momentum speculators or RCAR(1) model,
with prob(news at time t ) = 1, in this simulation; feedback
term n t drawn from an exponential distribution with mean
0.55; impact of news is zero-mean Gaussian with standard
deviation of 1 175
Fig. 7.8 General model simulated. (a) Price; (b) Return
(in percent); (c) Cumulative distribution of volatility
in log–log scale, and a linear fit of the tail, with a slope
close to 3; (d) Autocorrelation function of return
and absolute return 178
List of Tables
xiii
CHAPTER 1
Prologue
2 Generally, we will use small letters in referring to individual willingness to pay (wtp) or
accept (wta) reservation values or costs and capital letters when referring to the aggregate
distribution functions of these individual reservation values (WTP) or costs (WTA).
4 S. M. INOUA AND V. L. SMITH
mathematically that price change has the same sign as excess demand.
That is the dynamic that accounts for contract paths that approach and
may achieve stationary states. However, that dynamic easily generalizes
much beyond Smith’s contextual description of sellers bringing goods
to market. Thus, as in an experiment, all the sellers and buyers may
be physical present in the market, and any can initiate an action. When
a “low” (“high”) price is bid or asked, and at that price the effectual
demand exceeds (is below) what sellers are willing to supply, then price
quotes/contracts increase (decrease). Indeed, the items traded may be a
service, not tangible goods, wherein each seller brings to market a service
capacity as distinct from a stock of hard or soft goods.
These conditions explain, ostensibly, the “magic” of how naïve under-
graduates (or anyone, as established in economics laboratories all over the
world) easily find stable market prices, in single or multiple markets for
non-re-traded goods, and how the classical economists came to under-
stand price formation. Classical economists lacked only a mathematical
expression for what they learned from observation, judgment, and sound
reasoning.
This confrontation between the two schools invites a theoretical reex-
amination of the market mechanism of the classical economists with
comparisons to neoclassical theoretical developments showing how this
divergence occurred. Our primary purpose is to begin a program to
complete the theory of competitive market price formation emanating
from classical, experientially realistic, descriptions of market “higgling and
bargaining” over discrete units of goods, and consistent with the first
experimental findings on market behavior. Far from being vague, these
nonutilitarian descriptions are quite precise if we focus on the origins of
market actions and their consequences for the economy.
We characterize the classical program in a basic principle: the market
price of a good converges toward an optimal, robust, summary (a gener-
alized median) of the traders’ valuations of the good. Because the process
is parameter free, it is qualitative, and says nothing about rates of price
change, or time-to-equilibrium achievement, in the absence of speci-
fying more parametric structure. This attractor, which we call the center
of value, generalizes the traditional notion of competitive equilibrium:
it applies to a competitive market, whether small or large, whether it
clears or not, and predicts that prices decay toward this center (Smith &
Williams, 1990).
8 S. M. INOUA AND V. L. SMITH
Reference
Smith, V., & Williams, A. W. (1990). The boundaries of competitive price theory:
Convergence, expectations, and transaction costs. Advances in Behavioral
Economics, 2, 31–53.
CHAPTER 2
Introduction
they are formed initially, and how they adjust in response to changes
in the economic environment. The early neoclassical innovators, writing
nearly one hundred years after Adam Smith, were primarily concerned
with applying their new tools to modeling the structure of economic
interdependence in a market economy and were content with simplifying
assumptions they believed facilitated that objective.
Laboratory market experiments, however, reliably demonstrate by
replication that motivated unsophisticated subjects, driven by their own
homegrown principles of action, soon find competitive equilibrium price-
quantity outcomes. These findings—beyond a general equilibrium focus
only on structure, end-state results, and interdependence—naturally lead
to a reopening of longstanding scientific questions concerning price
dynamics, and price information, in economic systems going back to
Adam Smith. The earliest of the neoclassical marginal utilitarian scholars
avoided the problem of formulating a price discovery process by asserting
the requirement that all the traders in a market must have “perfect knowl-
edge” of information on his model of supply and demand, and of the
consequent equilibrium price (Jevons, [1871] 1888, p. 87). A second,
more influential view of the neoclassicals, and especially of his followers,
imagined an external agent—the Walrasian auctioneer—who finds equi-
librium prices by an exogenous procedure of trial-and-error adjustments,
an “as if” exercise, justifiable perhaps in allowing a framework for pricing
as a system to be erected with details to be filled in after the structure is
in place (Walras, [1874] 1954).
1 The total number of subjects were in the range 12–30 in the typical experiment.
2 INTRODUCTION 11
negotiate and at which you buy, the more money you have left over to
buy other goods (or to save, increasing wealth). The actors in markets
thereby simultaneously aggregate demand, supply, and find stable prices
as part of a shared, but privately informed and motivated, market inter-
action process. Based on this dispersed aggregated WTP (WTA) data, the
classical research program was directed to understanding that interactive
process, and the puzzling but dependable emergence of orderly prices
and corresponding allocations in markets.2 Adam Smith knew that the
process was beyond the comprehension of the participants and inferred,
depending on the extent of markets, that it accounted for specialization
as the unintended cause of wealth creation.
In this conception, individual consumers are not buying units of each
good up to a quantity that equalizes the marginal dollars’ worth of each
good purchased. Rather, each is comparing the negotiated potential prices
of discrete items with their wtp/wta limits and trying to buy cheap or sell
dear. The prices that result depend on the wtp/wta private information
of others. The aggregation of that information into prices, as signals of
functional significance in human economic betterment, is a principle that
applies to aggregates of consumers across all goods markets, well beyond
the comprehension of individual consumers. Each individual has a simple
and manageable optimization problem: the comparison of one number,
wtp (wta) for a unit, with a potential price (bid, ask, or contract), and is
motivated to better themselves.
This book develops a mathematical theory of classical price formation
embracing the classical verbal narrative which is deep and precise; the
exercise shows the importance of the accuracy of the verbal narrative to
its mathematical statement. But we begin by indicating how the limited
achievements of neoclassical economics are traceable to its diversion from
these classical foundations.
First, the old school is about the collective rationality that emerged
from elementary individual behaviors in a natural market interaction
process, as the “invisible hand” metaphor conveys. The new school, in
contrast, strove to derive economic regularities from a sophisticated indi-
vidual utility maximizing rationality, which is mostly lost by aggregation,
as we eventually learned from the incisive Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu
(or SMD) theorem (Debreu, 1974; Mantel, 1974; Sonnenschein, 1972).
2 We will use wtp (wta) when we refer to the market aggregate distributions of
individual wtp (wta) valuations.
2 INTRODUCTION 13
4 References to goods or wants in lively demand, but that are “frivolous”, appear often
in the works of Scotland’s famous economist. Adam Smith ([1776] 1904; vol. 1, pp. 174,
314, 328, 381, 387; vol. 2. pp. 261, 391, 394).
2 INTRODUCTION 17
5 Thus, a small box of cornflakes and a quart of milk are complements. A small box of
cornflakes and one of Wheaties are substitutes. A small box of cornflakes is preferred to a
can of green beans.
18 S. M. INOUA AND V. L. SMITH
References
Caliskan, A., Muris, T., Smith, V., & Kobayashi, B. (2011). Antitrust and
bundled discounts an experimental analysis—A reply. Antitrust Law Journal,
77 , 683–699.
Clavin, W. (2020, August 4). Famous economics experiment reproduced thousands
of times. Phys.Org. https://phys.org/news/2020-08-famous-economics-tho
usands.html
Cournot, A. A. ([1838] 1897). Researches into the mathematical principles of the
theory of wealth. Macmillan.
Debreu, G. (1974). Excess demand functions. Journal of Mathematical
Economics, 1(1), 15–21.
Grandmont, J. M. (1987). Distributions of preferences and the “law of demand.”
Econometrica, 55, 155–161.
Hayek, F. A. (1945). The use of knowledge in society. The American Economic
Review, 35(4), 519–530.
Hildenbrand, W. (1983). On the “law of demand.” Econometrica, 51, 997–1019.
Jevons, W. S. ([1871] 1888). The theory of political economy (3rd ed.). Macmillan.
Leffler, G. (1951). The stock market. Ronald Press.
Mantel, R. (1974). On the characterization of aggregate excess demand. Journal
of Economic Theory, 7 (3), 348–353.
2 INTRODUCTION 19
Muris, T., & Smith, V. (2008). Antitrust and bundled discounts: An experimental
analysis. Antitrust Law Journal, 75(2), 399–432.
Palan, S. (2013, March 1). A review of bubbles and crashes in experimental asset
markets. Journal of Economic Surveys. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12023
Say, J.-B. ([1803] 2006). Traité d’économie politique ou simple exposition de la
manière dont se forment, se distribuent et se consomment les richesses (Vol. 2).
Economica.
Smith, A. ([1776] 1904). The wealth of nations (Vols. 1 and 2, E. Cannan Ed.).
Methuen.
Smith, A. (1978). Lectures on jurisprudence (R. Meek, D. Raphael, & P. Stein,
Eds.). Oxford University Press.
Smith, V. (1962). An experimental study of competitive market behavior. Journal
of Political Economy, 70(2), 111–137.
Smith, V. (1965). Experimental auction markets and the Walrasian hypothesis.
Journal of Political Economy, 73(4), 387–393.
Smith, V. (1980). Relevance of laboratory experiments to testing resource allocation
theory, evaluation of econometric models (J. Kmenta & J. B. Ramsey, Eds.)
(pp. 345–377). Academic Press.
Smith, V., & Williams, A. W. (1990). The boundaries of competitive price theory:
Convergence, expectations, and transaction costs. Advances in Behavioral
Economics, 2, 31–53.
Sonnenschein, H. (1972). Market excess demand functions. Econometrica, 54,
9–563.
Walras, L. ([1874] 1954). Elements of pure economics (W. Jaffé, Trans.). Kelly.
CHAPTER 3
2 This first edition source was not cited in any of the early experimental papers but is
the edition available when the first experiment was conducted in January 1956.
24 S. M. INOUA AND V. L. SMITH
3 Chamberlin (1948, p. 95) draws on the neoclassical tradition of both Jevons ([1871]
1988) and Edgeworth (1881). His experiments were “designed to illuminate a particular
problem….that of the effect of deviations from a perfectly and purely competitive equi-
librium [Jevons’ proposition] under conditions (as in real life) in which the actual prices
involving such deviations are not subject to ‘recontract’ (thus perfecting the market)
[Edgeworth’s construction] but remain final. The concept of a mechanism that allows
equilibrium discovery before prices and contracts are binding has been reported in the
experimental economics literature. This mechanism, “the uniform price double auction,”
compares quite favorably in efficiency with the continuous double auction while making
it possible for the market to find an equilibrium, before any contract becomes binding
(Smith, 2008, pp. 84–98).
4 “This article reports on a series of experimental games designed to study some of the
hypotheses of neoclassical competitive market theory” (Smith, 1962, p. 111). Skepticism,
reflecting prevailing beliefs, is plain: “These schedules do nothing beyond setting extreme
limits to the observable price-quantity behavior in that market. All we can say is that the
area above the supply curve is a region in which sales are feasible, while the area below the
demand curve is a region in which purchases are feasible…. We have no guarantee that
the equilibrium defined by the intersection of these sets will prevail, even approximately,
in the experimental market (or any real counterpart of it)” (Smith, 1962, p. 114).
3 REDISCOVERING CLASSICAL ECONOMICS IN THE LABORATORY 25
will pay (minimum the market will accept), rather than go without each
unit. This representation is precisely that of the classicalists, not that of
the neoclassical paradigm. Hence, in retrospect, the early experimental
studies were classical to the core, where the double-auction rules of
interacting and trading constituted the “higgling and bargaining” process.
Later, as experimental economics gained traction in research and
teaching, experimentalists encountered the methodological objection that
experiments are not about the “real world” application of economic
theory to economic problems. One effective response was to demonstrate
such a connection using Jevons’ formalism showing how, through mone-
tary rewards, we could induce demand, supply, or any economic decision
environment in the laboratory (Smith, 1976a). Hence, “Induced value
theory” formally relied on the commonly accepted neoclassical conti-
nuity of individual utility functions, while proposing discrete multiple
unit implementations as reserve prices. Since US currency had value—
“utility”—to everyone, money earned as a function of action induced
monetary value on the outcomes of marginal successive decisions. The
intent and purpose of this rhetorical formalism was to shift the burden of
proof to other neoclassicists as to why this was not what all economists
were up to in their daily routines. Hence, the inference that the lab micro-
cosm was a recognizably familiar environment to all economists for the
study of economic decisions of all types. However, the continuous utility
formalism and its rhetoric obscured its classical observational foundations
in people’s revealed wtp (wta) for discrete units.
From the earliest experiments, none of the conditions believed to be
strictly necessary by Jevons and the economics profession were satisfied.
All value information was private, numbers were “small”; no participant
in the double-auction mechanism was a price-taker; each participant was
a maker of prices, who entered bids or asks, as well as a taker of prices, in
the sense that they accepted a standing best bid or ask entered by another
person.5 For these reasons, the strong expectation was that equilibrium
new “products” are routinely under consideration, and for which there is no yesterday’s
closing price when they are first introduced.
3 REDISCOVERING CLASSICAL ECONOMICS IN THE LABORATORY 27
to market.”6 Rather, the market is for goods made to order; each knows
their own capacity; people start trading, and the initial contract prices
may be below or above equilibrium. In each case, however, the principles
of short-side rationing still apply to our modeling of the price adjust-
ment process. Significantly, the price adjustment process implied by the
short-side rationing principle involves reducing loss or increasing gain,
and therefore lives in the profit space experience of the actors who are
focused on gain or loss for a next unit to be exchanged. This market
dynamic is obscured in the metaphor of Walras’s auctioneer who seeks
a price that equates total units supplied with total units demanded—a
mechanism that invites withholding by one side or the other to get an
advantage in profit space. Evident in the Walrasian metaphor, as a theory
of price formation, is the theorist, whose object is to implement his struc-
tural theory, not to observe the experience and actions of those in the
market and to model them.
Marshall’s effort to synthesize the classical and neoclassical tradi-
tions does not recognize classical short-side rationing principles. Rather,
Marshall assumed that goods might be in short-run inelastic supply,
like Adam Smith’s perishable oranges (Smith, [1776] 1904, p. 59).
Hence, his demand price was above (below) the long-run supply price,
causing profit maximizing entry (loss minimizing exit). With personal
services and appliance or home maintenance services, and goods made to
order (hamburgers), consumption (delivery) occurs after market pricing.
Hence, one does not make units that fail to be sold; supply is therefore
elastic, and responses based on short-side rationing are part of day-to-day
short run price decision-making.
6 That narrative, however, applies to one experiment reported in the Appendix by Smith
(1962). Unlike the other experiments and the discussion in the text, in this experiment
subject sellers were required to decide their production levels in advance, then inter or
not the market with those inventories. The sunk-cost property of that experiment led to
distress sales, low initial prices, and gradually increasing prices across successive trading
periods, as sellers learned that buyers were willing to pay much higher prices than sellers
were settling for initially. In effect, the product was perishable, as there is no provision
in the experiment for allowing the carry-over of unsold inventories into the next period.
Experiments that allow the carry-over of goods to future periods are reported by Smith
and Williams (1984).
28 S. M. INOUA AND V. L. SMITH
At price P(t) < P*, or symmetrically (by construction) at P, t) > P*, the
total market implied surplus, V(P), is identified as the area below the
quantities demanded and supplied and illustrated in Fig. 3.1 as the total
area B + S + F + E, where B, S, F, and E are each identified distinctly by
the cross-hatched areas so labeled. In Chapter 4, V(P) is defined by the
integral Eq. (4.25).
Because it is not sustainable, it was named “virtual surplus” in Smith
(1962; Fig. 1). Now if we let EQ (P*) = B* + S* be the total Marshallian
buyer plus seller equilibrium profit surplus achieved in the market, then
excess rent is defined by,
( )
E = V(P) − EQ P∗ .
( )
V(P) = B + F + S + E Lyapunov function
( ) ( )( )
EQ P∗ = B∗ + S∗ Marshall Surplus
( )
E(P) = V(P) − EQ P∗ (Excess Rent)
( ) ( )
TS(P) = B P, Q + S P, Q V(P) Constrained by Short - side rationing
( )
Min V(P) = Min E(P) = Max TS(P) = EQ P∗
O,
˛ increased in proportion to the excess of demand price over supply
price, P, − P.
Note, that virtual surplus, V (P), but also excess rent, E = V (P)—
EQ (P*), is minimized at equilibrium, i.e., teleologically, an efficient
market minimizes the profit reward that evokes the supply necessary for satis-
fying demand, a proposition on efficiency that was rich with intuitive
appeal. Neither the excess supply, nor the excess of demand price over
supply price, capture measures of profit foregone in the absence of price
adjustment, features that seemed important and to characterize nicely the
experimental results in 1962.
Indeed, the reported regression analysis of the data across all the
experiments tended to support this “excess rent” hypothesis against
the Walrasian (or Marshallian) hypothesis (Smith, 1962, pp. 127–132).
However, none of the original experiments were specifically designed to
perform a comparison test that would unambiguously distinguish these
alternative prediction hypotheses; a more “crucial test” was needed.
In a subsequent study, this problem was addressed using the “swastika”
supply and demand exhibiting constant excess demand (supply) but
declining excess rent; where excess rent = price x excess supply (Smith,
1965; illustrated in Fig. 4.5, Chapter 4). Hence, under the excess demand
hypothesis, price is predicted to decay at a constant rate; under the excess
rent hypothesis price is predicted to decay at an exponential rate. The new
experiments offered stronger support for excess rent.
Missing in this theory-laden empirical description of price forma-
tion is a more precise specification of the “higgling” exchange process,
conceptually involving the traders’ experience, as described by the classical
economists. As theorists we seek to read the theory content in actions;
also desirable, however, is to know how the actors read each other’s
actions. The latter task surely predominates in a fledgling science strug-
gling to define itself. Experienced exchange provides the potential means
of modeling the dynamics of agent price discovery.
7 Marshall importantly clarifies and extends the concept of “natural,” or normal, supply
price, which “is the real drift of that much quoted, and much-misunderstood doctrine of
Adam Smith and other economists that the normal, or ‘natural,’ value of a commodity is
that which economic forces tend to bring about in the long run” Marshall ([1890] 1920,
p. 347).
8 Notice that in A. Smith’s specification, sellers need have no perception that price is
“below equilibrium.” They simply experience the fact that when they bring Qs = O ˛ <
Q* to market they find that buyers want to buy more (Qd) than the trucked amount,
with each responding naturally in their own interest. Similarly, when they bring Qs, >
Q* to market, they cannot profitably dispose of it and cut (or accept a cut in) price. Each
knows their own cost and, together with other sellers, know that market prices enable
better or worse terms relative to those costs, and proceeds to adjust accordingly. Each
may have beliefs, including conspiratorial beliefs that have no foundation, but each has
tacit knowledge of what is to be done—Ryle (1946) calls it knowledge-how as distinct
from knowledge-that.
9 Recall that in the experiments all goods (services) are non-durable and made to order
(like sandwiches). Unlike A. Smith’s narrative we do not have sellers with inventories
“brought to market;” all sellers are present and eager to sell in the market.
32 S. M. INOUA AND V. L. SMITH
short-side volume is Q = O
˛ and we now write explicitly that if price is P,
then
( ) ( ) ( )
V(P) = B P, Q + S P, Q + F P, Q + E(P),
“RS — Sellers are permitted to make offers; buyers are free to accept
offers, but are not permitted to make bids.
RSB — Sellers are permitted to make offers and are free to accept bids;
buyers are permitted to make bids and are free to accept offers.
RB — Buyers are permitted to make bids; sellers are free to accept
bids, but are not permitted to make offers”12 (Smith, 1964,
p. 183).
11 Contrary to our postulate, if buyers were active at P, all those with wtp in the
interval above P could profit from bidding above P.
12 Eventually, experimentalists defined an “institution” as consisting in the rules
governing message exchange and outcomes (contracts in markets, majority rule in polit-
ical contests, or terms of “agreement” in more general human governance arrangements).
Smith (1964) is an early version of this broad scholarly exploration. In this use of the
word, Martin Shubik is cited as the source—“the process of experimental design forces
one to articulate rules and procedures, the collection of which forms an institution, orga-
nization, or ‘body of law’ with striking ‘real world’ parallels (cf. Shubik 1974). The
laboratory becomes a place where real people earn real money for making real decisions
about abstract claims that are just as ‘real’ as a share of General Motors” (Smith, 1976a,
p. 275).
36 S. M. INOUA AND V. L. SMITH
3.6 Summary
This chapter has considered the role of demand and supply experiments in
the rediscovery of classical price theory. The overriding lesson in all these
experiments is their robust tendency to converge to the predicted “equi-
librium,” or what we call the Market Center of Value. The results strongly
support the rational expectations model as it applies to these markets, as
shown by Lucas (1986). However, as we have repeatedly emphasized,
these markets are for goods and service that are bought for consump-
tion, not for resale. In Chapter 7, we introduce asset market experiments
showing that these strong convergence features do not replicate for assets,
and that this failure can be specifically identified as the consequence of the
re-trade- ability of asset goods.
13 Later, studies of posted pricing only allowed price changes at the beginning of each
period (Ketcham et al., 1984). In the text posted offer markets, the instructions allowed
sellers to choose how often and who posted a freely chosen price. However, each new
posted price displaced the previous posted price, and there was no requirement that the
offers improve the terms for buyers. Later implementations of double-auction trading
introduced bid/ask improvement rules and studied the effect of the various components
of these rules on price discovery (Smith and Williams, 1983).
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kahdenkymmenen jalan korkealla varustuksen yllä. Sinertävän
usvan läpi näkyivät puoleksi hajonneen rintasuojuksensa takana
venäläiset krenatöörit, jotka seisoivat pyssyt koholla ja
liikkumattomina kuin patsaat. Olen vieläkin näkevinäni jokaisen
sotamiehen, vasen silmä meihin luotuna ja oikea kohotetun pyssyn
peitossa. Eräässä ampumareiässä muutamia askeleita meistä seisoi
mies tulisoihtu kädessä kanuunansa vieressä.
Arpapeli.