GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and

COVID Old Trends, New Realities

Nikolay Kozhanov
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GCC Hydrocarbon
Economies and
COVID
Old Trends, New Realities

Edited by
Nikolay Kozhanov · Karen Young ·
Jalal Qanas
GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and COVID
Nikolay Kozhanov · Karen Young ·
Jalal Qanas
Editors

GCC
Hydrocarbon
Economies
and COVID
Old Trends, New Realities
Editors
Nikolay Kozhanov Karen Young
Gulf Studies Center Center on Global Energy Policy
Qatar University Columbia University
Doha, Qatar New York, NY, USA

Jalal Qanas
College of Business and Economics
Qatar University
Doha, Qatar

ISBN 978-981-19-5461-0 ISBN 978-981-19-5462-7 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5462-7

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
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 Acknowledgments

The editors would like to thank all the authors involved in this book as
well as the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University that supported this
project and made it possible.

v
 Contents

1 Introduction 1
Nikolay Kozhanov

2 Challenges Facing the Gulf Petroleum Industry:

Covid-19, New Technologies, Energy Transition 13
Naji Abi-Aad and Nikolay Kozhanov
2.1 Introduction 13
2.2 The Petroleum Industry & New Technologies:
More Production…  14
2.3 .… but Less Demand! 16
2.4 Opportunity for Reforms 17
2.5 The Peak of Oil Is Inevitable, but Not Near 20
2.6 Keep Calm and Pump Oil 22
2.7 The Gulf Goes “Green” 24
2.8 It Is Not Going to Be That Simple 26
2.9 Road Ahead 27
Bibliography 28

3 Qatar’s Energy Sector in the Post-COVID Era 31

Steven Wright
3.1 The Emergence of Qatar as a Global LNG Power:
A Brief History  33
3.2 Navigating Regional Political and Economic Stability 36

vii
viii CONTENTS

3.3 A New Era of Great Power Engagement:

The Rise of China  39
3.4 The Context of Regional Relations: The
Post-Blockade Era  42
3.5 Global Observations of the LNG Sector 44
3.6 Global Carbon–Neutral Goals and a Blue
Ammonia Future  48
3.7 Concluding Observations 52
References 53

4 GCC Renewable Energy Development Amid COVID-19

Pandemic 57
Aisha Al-Sarihi, Noura Mansouri, and Sarah Al-Otaibi
4.1 Introduction 57
4.2 Why Scaling up the Deployment of Renewable Energy
Technologies  59
4.3 The State of Renewable Energy in the Six GCC States
Pre-COVID-19 Pandemic  63
4.4 COVID-19 Pandemic and the Gulf Renewable
Energy  71
4.5 Challenges Ahead 79
4.6 Conclusions and Policy Insights 84
References 86

5 The Covid Response in the GCC: Making a Durable

Economic Policy Agenda 91
Karen Young
5.1 The Economic Recovery Outlook 91
5.2 Economic Recovery Mechanisms—Some
Orthodoxy and Discipline  97
5.3 The Saudi Economy: The Reopening and Recovery 103
5.4 After Covid, What Comes Next? 105
Bibliography 107

6 Dealing with the Challenges: GCC Institutional

Responses to the Covid-19 and Arab Spring 111
Luciano Zaccara and Nesibe Hicret Battaloglu
6.1 Introduction 111
6.2 The GCC Social Institutions and the Arab Spring 114
 CONTENTS ix

6.3 The GCC and the Covid-19 Pandemic

Social Implications  117
6.4 The Impact of Covid-19 on the GCC Foreign Policies 127
6.5 Conclusions 133
Bibliography 135

7 Gulf’s Migrant Workers Amidst Covid-19 and Workforce

Nationalization: A Focus on Qatar’s Social Protection
Systems 141
Lakshmi Venugopal Menon
7.1 Seven Phases of Migration to the Gulf 143
7.2 Covid-19 in the GCC: Patterns, Policies, Responses,
and Health Care Policies  148
7.3 The Intensification of Workforce
Nationalization Policies 152
7.4 Social Protection Systems—Where Do
They Stand in Qatar?  159
7.5 A Fundamental Issue in Perception 164
7.6 Reconciling Rights of Migrants and Workforce
Nationalization: What Can Be Done?  165
7.7 Conclusion 168
Bibliography 169

8 Climate Change and the GCC: Economic and

Environmental Impact 173
Greg Shapland
8.1 The Impact of the Covid Pandemic on
GCC Countries’ Adaptation to Climate Change 173
8.2 The Likely Direct Impacts of Climate
Change on GCC Countries  174
8.3 Higher Temperatures and Humidity 175
8.4 Reduced and More Variable Precipitation,
for Most of the GCC  179
8.5 Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and Storm Surges 180
8.6 Cyclones 183
8.7 Higher Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
and More Dust-Storms and Sand-Storms  184
8.8 The Energy Transition, the Demand for
Hydrocarbons and the Availability of Forex  185
x CONTENTS

8.9 The Possible Impact of Climate Change on Food

Security in GCC Countries  188
8.10 How Can GCC Countries Adapt to the Effects
of Climate Change?  190
8.11 Official Adaptation Strategies 190
8.12 How GCC States Can Adapt to Climate Change 191
8.13 Conclusions 195
Bibliography 196

9 Gulf Energy Security During the COVID-19: From the

Security of Supply to the Security of Demand 201
Nikolay Kozhanov
9.1 Introduction 201
9.2 Energy Security Concept and the GCC Oil
Producers  202
9.3 Global Oil Market and GCC Energy Security
after the Abqaiq Incident  209
9.4 COVID-19 and the Issue of the GCC Energy
Security  215
9.5 Conclusion 220
Bibliography 222

10 Energy Security and Diplomacy: A Double-Edged

Sword. The Case Study of Saudi Arabia and Iran 225
Mahjoob Zweiri, Farah Al Qawasmi, and
Thomas Bonnie James
10.1 Introduction 225
10.2 Understanding the Role of Energy Security
on State Relationships: The Case Study of
Iran and Saudi Arabia  227
10.3 Iran and Saudi Arabia: A Game of Tug-of-Wars 233
10.4 How Did Covid-19 Influence Iran and Saudi
Arabia? The Effects of Covid-19 on Iran  237
10.5 Covid Impact on the Global Energy Market 239
10.6 Reimagining the Arabian Gulf 241
10.7 Is There a Future of Peace and Diplomacy Between the
Two States?  242
 CONTENTS xi

10.8 Conclusion 244

Bibliography 247

11 Oil Market Recovery and the Future of OPEC+:

Exit the Bear? 249
Colby Connelly
11.1 Introduction 249
11.2 OPEC and Non-OPEC Cooperation: From 2016 Till
Present  252
11.3 Lagging OPEC+ Production 256
11.4 Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Enter the Bear 264
11.5 Prospects for Future OPEC+ Cooperation 269
11.6 Conclusion 275
Bibliography 276

12 China and the Gulf States: Economic Relationship,

Challenges and Future 283
Jalal Qanas
12.1 Introduction 283
12.2 Sino-GCC Relations: Growing Interdependency 284
12.3 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) 286
12.4 Limitations: Can Pax Sinica Replace Pax Americana
in the New Future?  292
12.5 Concerns over Possible Debt Trap 297
12.6 China and GCC—Free Trade Agreement 299
12.7 Factors Driving China–GCC Trade Relations 300
12.8 China–GCC Relations—A Critical Analysis 303
12.9 US Pressure and Sino-GCC Relations 307
12.10 Conclusion 308
Bibliography 309

Index 311
 Notes on Contributors

Abi-Aad Naji has built a long career as an Energy Economist and

Strategist, with a special focus on the Middle East. In 2012, he started
acting as COO to Petroleb, an oil company based in Beirut and active
in petroleum exploration offshore the East Mediterranean and the Gulf.
In addition, Dr. Naji was appointed in 2016 as the Senior Advisor to
Tellurian Inc for the Middle East. Prior to his move to Lebanon, Dr.
Abi-Aad was serving for seven years in Qatar, first as Research Advisor
for Qatar Petroleum (QP) and its Board of Directors Department, and
as Media and Research Strategist in the Office of HE Qatar’s Deputy
Premier, Minister of Energy & Industry, before being appointed as
Senior Advisor to the CEO of Qatar Petroleum International (QPI).
Dr. Abi-Aad studied at the American University of Beirut before being
awarded a Ph.D. degree in Energy Economics from Grenoble University
in France. During his long years of experience, he has been involved in
extensive consultations, conferences and studies, particularly on oil and
gas in the Middle East, their resources and supply prospects. He has
authored over 100 reports and studies on Middle East energy issues, as
well as a book on security of petroleum supply from the region.
Al-Otaibi Sarah is an Associate Fellow at KFCRIS. She earned her
master’s degree in Public Law from Arab East Colleges and her bache-
lor’s degree in Law from King Saud University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Currently, she is a Ph.D. candidate at Leuphana University of Lüneburg
in Germany. She was a fellow in 2019, at the Max Planck Institute for

xiii
xiv NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Comparative Public Law and International Law, (Hamburg, Germany).

She is the author of a special report entitled “The Impact of the
COVID-19 Pandemic on the Energy Sector in the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia: The Future of Renewable Energy after the Crisis,” in 2020 and
a study entitled “The Development of Government Policies in Support
of Saudi Renewable Energy Sector,” in 2019. She participated in the
seminar of “Islamic World and China” for the center for study of Islamic
culture (CSIS) of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and the Hong
Kong policy research Institute (HKPRI), which have coordinated a pro-
gram named “Beyond Cooperation: Past, Present and the possible future
for the Gulf Region and the Greater China Area.” Her presentation in
2019 in Hong Kong was entitled: “Renewable Energy Future in Saudi
Arabia: Vision & Investment Opportunities.” In 2020 she gave a pres-
entation entitled “Energy Sector in Saudi Arabia: Developments &
Opportunities” at the Transatlantic Sustainability Seminar (TASS) organ-
ized by Leuphana University and Texas M&A University-Kingsville. Her
research interests encompass renewable energy policies and legislation,
energy transition and sustainable development, GCC–EU Cooperation
in the clean energy transition.
Al Qawasmi Farah is a Research Assistant at the Gulf Studies Center.
She received her undergraduate degree from Georgetown’s School of
Foreign Service in Doha with a degree in International Politics. She
continued her studies at SOAS, the University of London, where she
pursued a Master of Science degree in Cooperate Globalization and
Development. Her research interests include Water and Food Security,
Politics, and Socio-economic development in the Gulf and MENA
region.
Al-Sarihi Aisha is a Research Fellow at the National University of
Singapore’s Middle East Institute and a Non-Resident Fellow at the
Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Dr. Al-Sarihi’s areas of research
expertise and interest include clean energy policy and climate economics,
policies and governance, with a focus on the Arab region. Following her
Ph.D., she was a research officer at the London School of Economics
and Political Science’s Middle East Centre. She was also a former visit-
ing scholar at Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and Georgetown
University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies. Before joining MEI,
Dr. Al-Sarihi was a research associate in the Climate and Environment
Program at King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xv

(KAPSARC). She holds a Ph.D. from the Centre for Environmental

Policy at Imperial College London and an MSc and a B.Sc., with distinc-
tion, in environmental science from Sultan Qaboos University.
Battaloglu Nesibe Hicret is a Research Assistant at the Gulf Studies
Center of Qatar University and a Ph.D. candidate at the METU
(Turkey).
Connelly Colby is a Senior Research Analyst with Energy Intelligence
Group as well as a Non-Resident Scholar with the Economics and
Energy Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC. Prior
to joining Energy Intelligence, Colby worked as a Research Associate at
the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, where he focused on the
economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council region, with special atten-
tion to national oil companies and domestic energy markets. He spent
several years working as a contractor in Saudi Arabia in support of work-
force nationalization projects established as part of the government’s
Saudization initiative.
James Thomas Bonnie is a Graduate Research Assistant at Qatar
University. He is a Ph.D. candidate in the Gulf Studies Program at Qatar
University. His research interests include conceptual and theoretical
approaches to the Gulf.
Kozhanov Nikolay is a Research Associate Professor at the Gulf
Studies Center of Qatar University. He is also a non-resident scholar
at the Economics and Energy Program of the Middle East Institute
(Washington DC, the US). His research interests are focused on the geo-
politics of the Gulf hydrocarbons, Russian foreign policy in the Middle
East as well as Iran’s economy and international relations. Nikolay has
his Ph.D. in economics from St.Petersburg State University (2010).
He holds an MA degree in Oriental Studies (2006, St.Petersburg
State University) and an MA degree in Middle Eastern Studies (2012,
University of Exeter). Dr. Kozhanov has been a visiting fellow at a num-
ber of leading international think tanks including Chatham House, the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Carnegie Moscow Center.
His recent publications include Russia and the Syrian Conflict: Moscow’s
Domestic, Regional and Strategic Interests (Gerlach Press 2016); Iran’s
Strategic Thinking: The Evolution of Iran’s Foreign Policy 1979–2017.
(London, Berlin: Gerlach Press, 2018) and Russian Policy across the
Middle East: Motivations and Methods (Chatham House 2018).
xvi NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Mansouri Noura is a Fellow at KAPSARC, a Research Affiliate at

MIT, and an Expert at World Energy Council. She is the co-chair of
T20 Indonesia 2022 Task Force on Governing Climate Target, Energy
Transition and Environmental Protection and served as the (Lead)
Co-chair of T20 Task Force on Climate Change and Environment/
Sustainable Energy during both the Saudi 2020 and Italian 2021 G20
presidencies. Dr. Mansouri accumulates over 18 years of research and
professional experience. She earned her M.B.A. and Ph.D. degrees in
climate change, sustainability and energy transitions from University of
London and completed a post-doctoral fellowship at MIT. She is the
author of “Greening the Black Gold: Saudi Arabia’s Quest for Clean
Energy.” Noura has over 20 publications on climate change, sustainabil-
ity and energy transition, and she is also a public speaker on the subject
who spoke at over 85 events all over the world.
Menon Lakshmi Venugopal is a Ph.D. candidate in Gulf Studies at
Qatar University.
Qanas Jalal is an Assistant Professor in the College of Business and
Economics at Qatar University. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from
Leeds University Business School on 2018. During 2013–2017, he was
Teaching Assistant in Economics for Undergraduate and Postgraduate
students at the University of Leeds. He also taught a summer course in
the Economics of Brexit at Oxford University. Before joining Qatar
University, Jalal was a Visiting Lecturer at the University of West London.
He has considerable undergraduate and postgraduate teaching experi-
ence in different courses, such as Macroeconomics, Microeconomics,
Monetary Economics, Economics Controversies, International Political
Economy, Current Issues in Global Economy, The Economics of Brexit,
International Finance and Trade, Economics for Management, Business
Economics, Statistics and Mathematics for Economics and Business.
Qanas’ research interests are mainly in macroeconomic policies, monetary
economics, central banking and political economy of the Persian Gulf.
Shapland Greg is a Researcher and Writer on politics, security,
resources and environment (including water) in the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA). He is a Research Fellow at the LSE and the
University of Exeter and an Associate Fellow at Chatham House. Greg
served as a Middle East/North Africa analyst in Research Analysts
in the FCO from 1979 until 2015. When he left the FCO at the end
of February 2015, Greg was the FCO’s most senior analyst on the
 NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xvii

MENA region. He was also Head of Research Analysts from July 2010
to July 2013. During his time with the FCO, Greg served in several
British Embassies in the MENA region and in the Consulate General in
Jerusalem. Greg holds degrees in Geography, Arabic and Area Studies
(Middle East, geography and politics). His book “Rivers of Discord:
International Water Disputes in the Middle East” was published in 1997.
He is currently writing a book entitled “A Political Geography of the
Middle East and North Africa.”
Wright Steven is an Associate Professor of International Relations and
an Associate Dean at Hamad bin Khalifa University. He previously served
as an Associate Dean, and the Head of the Department of International
Affairs, at Qatar University. His area of research expertise is on three
main areas: the international relations and political economy of the Arab
Gulf states’ energy geopolitics and US foreign policy toward the Gulf
region. He has published widely in these areas, and his work has been
published in multiple languages, including Arabic, Japanese, French,
and Polish. He has held research fellowships at the London School of
Economics (LSE), Exeter University, and Durham University. He has
been an invited keynote speaker at a wide range of events hosted by lead-
ing organizations such as the World Bank, the Government of Japan,
Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, as well as by several multinational
corporations. He obtained his Ph.D. in International Relations from
Durham University in 2005.
Young Karen is a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University
in the Center on Global Energy Policy. She was Senior Fellow and
Founding Director of the Program on Economics and Energy at the
Middle East Institute. She was a resident scholar at the American
Enterprise Institute, focusing on the political economy of the Middle
East and the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council. She
has taught courses on the international relations and economy of the
Middle East at George Washington University and at the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies. She regularly teaches at the
US Department of State Foreign Service Institute. Before joining AEI,
she served as senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute,
a research and visiting fellow at the Middle East Centre of the London
School of Economics and Political Science, and an assistant professor of
political science at the American University of Sharjah in the UAE. She
was twice awarded a Fulbright fellowship, first to Ecuador and later to
Bulgaria.
xviii NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

In addition to her publications in a variety of academic and policy

journals, Dr. Young’s analysis has appeared in the popular press, includ-
ing Bloomberg Opinion, Foreign Policy, the Financial Times, the New
York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. She is
frequently quoted in the media and has been interviewed by the BBC,
CBS News, NPR, Al Jazeera, CBC, France 24 and CNBC Arabia, among
other networks. Dr. Young has contributed numerous chapters to edited
volumes, and is the author of The Political Economy of Energy, Finance
and Security in the United Arab Emirates: Between the Majilis and the
Market (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014).
Zaccara Luciano is a Research Assistant Professor at the Gulf Studies
Center of Qatar University. Also a Visiting Assistant Professor at
Georgetown University in Qatar and Director of OPEMAM. He holds
his Ph.D. in Arab and Islamic Studies from Univesidad Autonoma de
Madrid, Spain; and a BA in Political Science from Universidad Nacional
de Rosario, Argentina. He is specialized in Iran and Gulf Politics.
Zweiri Mahjoob is the Director of Gulf Studies Center. He is
a Professor in Contemporary Politics and History of the Middle East at
Qatar University. Before joining Qatar University in 2010, Prof. Zweiri
was senior researcher in Middle East Politics and Iran at the Center for
Strategic Studies, University of Jordan. He was also a visiting professor
to School of Government & International Affairs at Durham University.
From March 2003–December 2007 he was a research fellow and then
a director of the Centre for Iranian Studies in the Institute for Middle
Eastern and Islamic Studies at Durham University. Prof. Zweiri has more
than 80publications in the areas of Iran and Contemporary Middle East
History and Politics. In addition to Arabic, Prof. Zweiri is fluent in Farsi
and English. He tweets @mzweiri.
 List of Figures

Fig. 4.1 Renewable energy installed capacity in the GCC

countries, 2011–2021 (Source IRENA, 2021) 73
Fig. 5.1 GCC Covid-19 economic policy response 102
Fig. 7.1 The seven stages of Gulf migration 147
Fig. 7.2 Demographics of Qatar as observed by Online
Qatar (as of 2019) 160

Diagram 6.1 Qatar populations statistics (Source Qatar

Planning and Statistic Authority
https://www.psa.gov.qa/en/statistics1/
StatisticsSite/pages/population.aspx) 121

xix
 List of Tables

Table 3.1 Qatar LNG sector 45

Table 4.1 GCC renewable energy total installed capacity,
targets, and share in the energy mix 64
Table 6.1 Most relevant features of the Arab Spring
in the GCC states, 2011 115
Table 6.2 Covid-19 applications in the GCC states 123
Table 6.3 First Covid-19 cases in the Gulf region 124
Table 6.4 Virtual GCC meetings during the pandemic.
The list excludes workshops, seminars
as well as some technical meetings 126

xxi
 CHAPTER 1

Introduction

Nikolay Kozhanov

The negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the hydrocar-

bon producers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is raising seri-
ous questions about the need to change the focus of Gulf energy
security from the necessity to protect the interests of Gulf oil consum-
ers to the need to ensure the interests of oil producers themselves. By
the beginning of the COVID pandemic, the GCC countries had already
been tested by contracting economic growth, falling incomes from oil
exports, low oil and gas prices, unpredictable hydrocarbon market fluc-
tuations, sluggish growth in oil demand, as well as rising competition
with other oil and gas producers. For the GCC hydrocarbon producers
to adequately respond to emerging challenges, it is important to clearly
define and understand the origins of these issues, the majority of which
are deeply connected to the oil and gas market transformation which
started long before the coronavirus pandemic, but was speed up under
its influence.
The book considers the impact of COVID-19 on the GCC member
states through the prism of challenges faced by their hydrocarbon sec-
tor. Yet, the publication’s discourse is not solely focused on the problems

N. Kozhanov (*)
Gulf Studies Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
e-mail: nikolay@qu.edu.qa

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore 1

Pte Ltd. 2023
N. Kozhanov et al. (eds.), GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and COVID,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5462-7_1
2 N. KOZHANOV

experienced by the oil and gas industries of the GCC member states
after the beginning of the COVID pandemic. Instead, the contributors
analyze how these challenges and subsequent response to them affected
other aspects of the GCC socio-economic and political development.
Consequently, the collective monograph discusses the direct impact of
the COVID on the energy sector of the GCC, socio-economic conse-
quences of the oil market crisis for the region and its potential fallouts
for the international relations of the Persian Gulf.1
The COVID-19 hit the economy of the Gulf monarchies and their oil
and gas sector in several ways simultaneously. First of all, the global oil
glut forced the GCC countries to wage a severe price war for hydrocar-
bon markets’ share. Moreover, in Spring 2020, oil producers had to fight
not so much for expanding their market presence but rather for secur-
ing what they have while being pressured by falling demand. This turned
the market competition into a bloody knife fight where everything goes.
Moreover, during spring–summer 2020, the sharp drop in oil prices has
significantly erased the boundaries of suppliers’ regional specialization,
opening up access for some players to new markets, further increasing
competition. Thus, in the Asian market the GCC countries had to com-
pete not only with Iraq, Russia, and among themselves, but also with the
oil producers of Latin America and West Africa also joined the fight.
With the beginning of recovery in oil consumption in Europe and
Asia and the substantial increase in oil and gas prices by 2022, the situ-
ation has somewhat improved and the competition between producers
got less aggressive, but the situation is still far from being normal. The
current crisis has proved that the future of the GCC countries and their
oil and gas sector will not be cloudless. One of the main problems will be
the growing tensions in the global energy markets. There will be com-
petition between the Gulf countries themselves. The economic devel-
opment model of the leading GCC states is approximately the same.
This means that they will not be able to avoid competition with each
other, given approximately the same directions for their exports, visions
of sources to fund economic development, as well as the overlapping

1 The use of the term “Persian Gulf” in this book does not endorse any nationalistic

agenda. The editor and authors use it following the most common practice to name the
body of water that in some studies is also called “the Arabian Gulf.” Moreover, in the book
the preference is given to the shorter version of the geographical name—“the Gulf”—in
order to avoid sensitive and unnecessary political discussions.
 1 INTRODUCTION 3

ambitions regarding the markets of new energy resources. However,

the possibility of cooperation cannot be completely excluded. The gen-
eral attitude of the leading players to increase the volume of oil and gas
production makes the GCC countries talk about the possibility of imple-
menting joint projects. Recently, the management of the Abu Dhabi
National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC) was debating the
company’s ongoing infrastructure projects in the KSA and the possibil-
ities for NPCC to participate in the implementation of Kuwaiti plans to
bring oil production to the level of 3.2 million barrels per day by 2025.
However, the far bigger challenge for the GCC countries will be rep-
resented by growing tensions between them and hydrocarbon—first of
all, oil—consumers. On the other hand, the current crisis proved the the-
sis that reducing the role of OPEC and traditional producers in regu-
lating the oil market was controversial. Yet, on the other hand, it also
demonstrated that oil consumers will be gaining more influence on the
market as well. With the progress of energy transition and the expected
return of frequent market oversupply, it is demand, not supply, that
will play an increasingly important role in determining the dynamics of
oil and gas prices. An excess of oil on the market is already expected in
2022 while, according to some estimates, by 2030, there may be up to
10 million excess barrels per day on the market. Moreover, an attempt
by producers to exert pressure on price changes by regulating produc-
tion volumes will cause an increasingly sharp reaction from consumers.
Meanwhile, the expected oversupply and high level of uncertainty in the
market will give producers certain levers of influence.
The priority of this book is to offer a comprehensive view of the
COVID impact on the dynamics of the socio-economic changes in the
GCC. This study tries to demonstrate that the GCC countries should
not blame only COVID-19 for their misfortunes. It only amplified
the negative impact of those processes that were launched a long time
ago. The book argues that, under these conditions, it is impossible to
expect that the end of the pandemic crisis will lead to a gradual return
to the pre-COVID-19 situation. The world has entered an era of fre-
quent market fluctuations, limited predictability and intense competition.
Subsequently, the old rules will not work effectively, and any solution
to the problems currently experienced by the GCC countries should be
focused not so much on fighting the consequences of COVID-19 itself,
but on curbing the negative consequences of deep processes, whose
4 N. KOZHANOV

damaging impact on the Arab monarchies was only worsened by the

pandemic.
The collective monograph shows that the issues experienced by the
oil and gas sector of the GCC economies had direct impact on all aspects
of the socio-economic and political life of the Gulf states. Subsequently,
the set of measures in response to the market changes is supposed to be
comprehensive covering not only the oil and gas industry. The key ele-
ments of potential response by the GCC member states to faced chal-
lenges will also be discussed in the book including:

• prospects for economic diversification;

• role of sovereign wealth funds in the mitigation of the negative
impact of oil market crisis to the Gulf economies;
• readjustments in the structure of the international relations of the
Gulf countries;
• preservation of the OPEC+ role as market regulator;
• development of renewables and green energy sources;
• promotion of the natural gas role as a transition type of fuel (from
hydrocarbon to non-carbon fuels).

The second chapter of the book argues that until very recently, and to
the average Gulf citizens, their nation’s economy seems to be structured
around exchanging oil and gas rents and revenues for expenditures on
cars and smart phones. The trouble now is that, as a result of the steep
decline in petroleum demand mainly due to the continuous aftermath
of Covid-19, and of the resulting glut in supply and the fluctuations in
oil prices, those fossil fuel products buy ever fewer imports and build
fewer infrastructures. Although oil prices were restored to levels that are
pretty acceptable by the industry, they remain insufficient for the public
budgets of many Gulf petroleum producers, which need an oil price of at
least US$85 per barrel (nominal 2021) to be able to cover their growing
expenditures. Consequently, since at least 2014, the public budgets in
most Gulf countries have been in red. Nevertheless, the recent unsus-
tainable increase in oil prices to higher levels will sooner or later badly
impact the medium- to long-term demand for hydrocarbons. This ele-
ment will add to another real problem in the Gulf: oil and gas resources
in the region started to lose their strategic importance, and their exports
to the consuming markets are to further decrease. In fact, as a result
 1 INTRODUCTION 5

of amazing technological advances in recent years, oil and gas are now
found almost everywhere, petroleum production is growing almost
everywhere, while the consumption of petroleum products and natural
gas is declining almost everywhere. Here Covid-19 has been exerting
further negative impacts on petroleum demand, especially in the trans-
portation sector.
Chapter 3 by Steven Wright continues this discussion by stating
that the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as an accelerant to systemic
fiscal challenges the GCC states were projected to face. These longer-
term fiscal challenges were a result of fundamental shifts in the global
energy market toward lackluster demand, an oversupply of oil and gas,
and depressed prices. Moreover, the shift toward carbon -neutrality, and
investment in renewables by key regions such as the European Union
and China, have added to the long-term outlook on fossil fuel demand.
This article examines such trends with respect to Qatar and the LNG
sector. It offers reflections on what this has meant for pricing, market
convergence, and LNG prospects being increasingly a transitional fuel
toward cleaner renewable sources.
In Chapter 4 a collective of authors led by Dr. al-Sarihi discusses the
prospects for renewable energy in the GCC during the post-COVID
era. According to them, in spite of the abundance of renewable energy
resources, especially solar and wind, the current share of renewable
energy in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain,
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—
does not exceed 1% of the region’s total primary energy supply or total
installed power capacity. The GCC region holds almost 30% of the
world’s total proven oil reserves and around 20% of its total proven nat-
ural gas reserves. Such abundance of hydrocarbon resources however
should not prevent the GCC states from seeking to develop alternative
cleaner energy sources due to the following reasons. The region faces
the challenges of energy security with demand increasing on average 5%
per year; rising greenhouse gas emissions; almost 99% reliance on oil and
gas resources to meeting domestic energy needs; and adverse impacts of
climate change on the oil and non-oil-based sectors. Renewable energy
also presents an opportunity for the GCC countries to diversify their
economies away from oil and creating jobs for their growing popula-
tion. Aware of the aforementioned factors, between 2014 and 2020, the
total renewable electricity installed capacity in the GCC states increased
by almost 1140%. This paper addresses two questions: what the reasons
6 N. KOZHANOV

behind such underutilization of renewable energy resources in the GCC

states are, and why there has been a significant increase in the deploy-
ment of renewables over the last five years. The paper also assesses the
impact of COVID-19 pandemic—which hit the GCC states by a dou-
ble shock: oil prices collapse and health crisis—on the GCC progress to
adopting renewable energy.
Chapter 5 by Dr. Karen Young moves the reader’s attention to the
issues of the GCC economic recovery from the consequences of Covid-
19. Like many countries across emerging markets, the plan for economic
recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic across the GCC relies on gov-
ernment outlays in social support and public health, a renewed effort
to attract foreign direct investment, access to international debt capital
markets and some serious fiscal consolidation. In many ways though,
the economic policy response to Covid-19 is just an acceleration of
some very specific trends already underway across the GCC. The policy
shifts we saw in 2020 are really a continuation of the shifts that began in
2015 with the decline in oil prices. What is new is more differentiation
between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state approaches that now
lead to a competitive economic policy landscape. This is a broader effect
of an energy inflection point in the global economy: plentiful oil supply,
less oil demand, more competitive options of renewable energy, and a
more discerning investor and consumer of carbon-intensive products.
According to the author, the Covid-19 pandemic is just speeding
things along, and we see now a wider aperture across the GCC on: (1)
Tax policy (2) Labor market regulation (3) Immigration policy. The
pandemic has also made the economic diversification policies that were
innovative all the more difficult to execute in the past year. Projects in
tourism, airlines, entertainment, along with investment in private school-
ing and destination or mega-cities could not accelerate as planned.
Resilience in these economies has also been weak in unsurprising ways,
particularly across job creation and employment. Labor markets are still
so contentious across the GCC because of the persistent demographic
divide between foreigners and citizens. Citizenship rights and a shared
understanding of the social contract continue to define the economic
possibilities of Gulf political economies.
Luciano Zaccara and Nesibe Hicret Battaloglu compare the structural
socio-political responses offered by the GCC states to the challenges
posed by COVID-19 with that of Arab Spring. They argue that like it
happened after the Arab Uprisings in 2011, a development originated
 1 INTRODUCTION 7

outside the GCC region directly affected all its members and required a
quick response from the authorities. While the responses from the GCC
governments to the uprisings was a combination of institutional, redis-
tributive, and repressive measures to guarantee the stability of the polit-
ical elites and regimes; the Covid-19 Pandemic is demanding even more
strategic responses that could guarantee the continuity of the economic
models and the social contracts that are at the core of the state formation
in the GCC. Having rentier and oil-dependent economies, the Covid-19
pandemic drastically reduced the GCC states income due to the world-
wide and mainly Chinese economic slowdown. On the other hand, the
worldwide mobility restrictions conditioned economic models heavily
relying on foreign manpower. But also, like in the rest of the world, put
at stake the government’s performances in dealing with the difficulties
that the pandemic posed for every GCC state.
Chapter 6 looks into the impact of COVID-19 on the situation with
the migrant workers in the GCC. The author attempts to address certain
critical questions regarding the topic of the migrant workers in the Gulf
region amid the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, with a focus on the
state of Qatar. She argues that the understanding of migration process
in the Gulf region requires a systematic and proper contextualization of
migration to the Gulf region. Consequently, Menon proposes a new sev-
en-stage concept of Gulf migration including the period of the Covid-19
pandemic that brought the entire world to a standstill.
The issue of climate change and the Gulf policies to handle it are dis-
cussed by Greg Shepland in Chapter 8. He rightfully points out that the
economies of the GCC countries, having been negatively impacted by
Covid-19, now face the longer-term challenge of climate change. Over
the coming decades, climate change will affect these countries in several
ways. First, countries that consume hydrocarbons may, as part of the
transition to renewable energy, buy less oil and gas, reducing the reve-
nues available to GCC governments. Second, climate change will bring
higher temperatures and a rise in sea level. Higher temperatures will
necessitate the use of more energy for air-conditioning and will also put
GCC residents at risk if there are failures in electricity supply, as summer
temperatures will be “unliveable” without air-conditioning. Sea-level rise
will require large sums to be spent on protecting or moving/rebuilding
infrastructure in coastal areas. Third, there will be severe environmental
damage, because of factors such as the rise in sea temperatures and more
8 N. KOZHANOV

frequent and more severe dust storms. The GCC countries will need to
find ways of responding to these challenges.
In Chapter 9 Nikolay Kozhanov argues that the events of 2019–2020
clearly demonstrated the need to review our understanding of the Gulf
energy security. Since the late 1960es (if not earlier) its concept has been
spanning around the need to ensure the sustainability of oil consumers’
access to the regional hydrocarbons. The vision of oil as a unique, finite,
and unevenly distributed resource (the demand for which often exceeded
the supply) was only making the world further confident that ensuring
the energy security of the GCC is solely limited to the stability and phys-
ical security of crude imports from the region. However, the picture is
much more complex. The security of consumers’ interests does not mean
that the interests of crude producers are automatically respected. On the
contrary, producers’ access to consumer markets and their ability to trade
hydrocarbon resources at desired prices and in necessary volume should
be ensured separately. Moreover, the protection of these interests has key
importance for the existence of countries like GCC member states that
are heavily dependent on incomes received from oil and gas exports.
For decades and until recently, the global oil market was relatively
dominated by oil producers (the degree and nature of this dominance
has been uneven for the last 70 years, however), thus, making the task to
protect their interests easier. Nevertheless, since the early-2010s the mar-
ket balance has been gradually changing in favor of buyers. In 2020, the
sharp and unprecedented drop in oil demand caused by the coronavirus
pandemic led to an equally unprecedented oversupply that changed the
oil market in favor of buyers, significantly weakening the position of sell-
ers. This change reduced the importance of hydrocarbons as a “unique”
resource, giving its consumers the right to choose among suppliers offer-
ing the cheapest price. Suddenly, the GCC countries have received the
urgent call to ensure their own sustainable access to markets in order to
guarantee the adequate development of their own economies, including
the oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors. In other words, there has been a
shift in the focus on ensuring the energy security of the GCC countries
from protecting the interests of oil consumers to protecting the interests
of oil producers.
This, in turn, had the direct impact on the perception of the issue of
physical security of hydrocarbon exports from the GCC countries. The
growing oil (over)supply and the understanding by oil consumers that
the significance of Gulf as a source of oil supplies is decreasing changed
 1 INTRODUCTION 9

the situation a lot. By 2018, consumers had stopped panicking when

hearing about production shocks caused by political risks in the Persian
Gulf, Middle East, and even beyond. It is notable that, in 2018–2019,
neither the instability of oil production in Libya, nor the practical disap-
pearance of Iran and Venezuela from the market had long-lasting effect
on prices (at best, they were only preventing them from further sharp
decline). Even the supposedly Iranian-inspired attack on Saudi Arabia's
oil production and refining infrastructure in September 2019 had only a
short-term impact on the market although the volume of oil single-time
taken from the market was historically unprecedented since 1973. Under
these circumstances, it is not surprising that in the context of a much
larger excess of oil supply in 2020 caused by COVID-19, the world has
almost ceased to respond to the Iranian–American tensions in the Gulf,
in particular, without noticing either the resumption of the USA and
Iran confronting each other in the spring of 2020, or new attempts by
the Houthis to shell the territory of the KSA and UAE in 2021–2022.
The discussion of the issue of energy security is continued in Chapter
10 that studies the dynamics of Iran–Saudi relations. According to the
authors, the relationship between the GCC and their neighboring coun-
try Iran is far too complex to be defined by a Sunni–Shiite rivalry or by
an Arab–Persian rivalry only. This relationship is also framed by the ques-
tion of the energy security of one of the richest oil and energy regions
in the world. With invested interest in the region by a number of global
players, the clash of ethnicities and minority groups, a number of politi-
cal and cultural dilemmas, and border disputes, Iran and the Gulf lay at
the front line of conflict and tension. This chapter looks closely at the
rivalry between Iran, and the biggest and most influential Gulf state,
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Although their conflict has been aggre-
gated by a number of past and current issues, yet, in the last couple of
years, the tension has escalated further by an event, and a main player,
and those would be the Oil Crisis, and the former American president,
Donald Trump. The use of oil as a political tool is widespread, and
America’s foreign policy toward the two Middle Eastern countries, Iran
and Saudi Arabia is no different. The oil crisis is a stage of ongoing con-
flict for the two countries, and this paper will investigate what this crisis
means to the area, and the impact of the USA on the rivalry and the
establishment of energy security.
Chapter 11 of the book attempts to analyze future prospects for
OPEC+. First, it briefly revisits the origins of contemporary OPEC
10 N. KOZHANOV

and non-OPEC cooperation since the signing of the Declaration of

Cooperation in 2016 and the alliance’s approach to market balancing in
2020 until the present day. The circumstances of each period have been
critical in shaping the current state of OPEC and non-OPEC cooper-
ation and will have a considerable impact on the group’s trajectory in
the long term. The alliance has endured crises before, but the life of the
DOC has so far been short enough that many of the dynamics governing
the views of key members early on remain highly relevant in the pres-
ent day. Then, the chapter examines the dynamics shaping OPEC + and
its market balancing strategy through 2021 until the eve of Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine. During this time, the group’s acute lack of spare
capacity grew in its significance as a key oil market variable, calling atten-
tion to the fact that its ability to manage markets would likely become
increasingly constrained in both the near and long term. Even without
the considerable volatility presented by Russia’s uncertain future with the
group, this factor will likely contribute to many issues surrounding group
cohesion in the coming years. As wealthier producers invest in additional
spare capacity while their less prosperous counterparts struggle to reverse
capacity losses due to natural declines or aging, poorly maintained infra-
structure, the national interests of the group’s members will diverge to
an ever greater degree.
Chapter 11 gives special focus to the oil market impact of the Ukraine
war, which represents a critical juncture for OPEC and non-OPEC coop-
eration. The invasion triggered one of the largest energy market price
shocks in decades, leading prominent oil market commentator Javier
Blas to draw comparisons to the market disruptions of 1973, 1979, and
2003. Notably, these historic supply disruptions largely took place as a
result of geopolitical dynamics concentrated in the Middle East; Russia’s
status as a major global power in addition to being one of the top three
oil-producing countries in the world underscores the truly unprece-
dented nature of the still-unfolding situation. Finally, the chapter turns
its attention to future prospects for OPEC and non-OPEC coopera-
tion within the framework of the DOC. In order to mitigate the effects
of a rapidly evolving situation in both Russia’s war on Ukraine and its
implications for the global economy, the chapter will consider potential
impacts of the crisis, as well as some of the ways in which OPEC + may
choose to address its spare capacity issues as the primary determinants
of the group’s future. Indeed, it is currently difficult to suggest that any
other factors would be as impactful or relevant to the future of OPEC
 1 INTRODUCTION 11

and non-OPEC cooperation, which for a time was viewed by many as a

potentially permanent feature of oil markets, potentially long after peak
oil demand has been reached.
Chapter 12 by Jalal Qanas analyzes the Sino-GCC relation and their
mutual growing interdependency. It also examines the new Chinses Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI) and the role of the GCC countries in it. The
chapter argues that Sino-GCC economic relations started growing in the
2000s when GCC countries started looking toward East due to declining
oil demand in the West. In 2004, the free trade agreement was signed,
and in 2010, China–GCC business form was founded to strengthen the
bilateral ties. In 2014, the Chinese president met GCC delegation to
promote belt and road initiative. Both parties agreed to cooperate with
each other for successful implementation of the BRI project to achieve
mutual economic gains. Since then, China has successfully developed
strategic economic partnerships with all six GCC countries to increase
its foothold in this region. The maritime location of GCC strengthens
the Chinese military presence in Africa. GCC’s strategic location also
facilitates the Chinese expansion in Indian Ocean. Cooperation of GCC
is also vital for implementing the China–Pakistan corridor project. BRI
has also cemented the Sino-GCC strategic relations, as GCC countries
are currently considering BRI as an opportunity to implement their eco-
nomic visions that are based on economic diversification. The project has
enabled China to play wider economic role in GCC, and strong presence
in this region serves multiple geopolitical objectives of BRI. However,
some key factors that are limiting the China’s engagement in GCC
include domestic conflicts, regional rivalry, GCC’s sensitivity to U.S.’
concerns, China’s hesitation to securitize its footprint in GCC by apply-
ing military power, its core focus on expanding economic and techno-
logical cooperation, neutral stance on geopolitical conflicts, and China’s
reluctance to directly challenge the U.S. dominance in GCC region.
Another random document with
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frémissantes, les jarrets tendus, les ailes et la croupe en
mouvement. Et quel blanc que le leur : chaud, velouté, immaculé !
Puis j’allai vers un enclos où cent vingt poules blanches, à
l’adorable crête rouge, picotaient. Une quantité de coqs s’en
donnaient dans ce sérail : ils violaient, violentaient, harcelaient les
poulettes qui s’encouraient éperdues ; mais, prises au vol, elles y
passaient. Sous un arbre, des groupes nichaient par terre, le ventre
dans un creux, d’autres picotaient sans répit, sans souci, celles-là,
des coqs ardents qui les harcelaient toutes. Sur le vert tendre du
printemps, elles se détachaient si fraîches, si pimpantes que mon
spleen me quitta du coup.
— Vous devez avoir beaucoup d’œufs ? dis-je au gardien.
— Nous pas : le directeur.
— Si le directeur a les œufs, il doit les vendre pour arriver à
nouer les deux bouts, car le jardin périclite et s’est déjà fortement
endetté.
Puis j’allai voir les singes.
Plus de la moitié sont morts de privations et on ne peut les
remplacer.
— Ils n’ont pas ce qu’il leur faut, me dit le gardien.
Il est vrai que je les vis grignoter des fèves, et du maïs, au lieu
des figues, des oranges et autres bonnes choses qu’on leur donnait
avant. Des figues ! des oranges ! Oh ! que je voudrais en manger
moi-même !
Dans la salle des singes, on a installé les perroquets sur leurs
perchoirs. Ces bêtes au plumage magnifique me donnaient envie de
les étrangler : l’une après l’autre, elles s’étaient mises à crier en
chœur, avec des voix si discordantes et perçantes que les vitres
tintaient comme si elles allaient se briser. Hou, les sales bêtes ! elles
suent la stupidité et leur beau plumage en devient discordant lui-
même !

17 juillet 1918.
 C’est adorable, mais gênant. Je lis au lit ; une nuée de papillons
de nuit, fauves, velus, à grosse tête ornée de panaches, voltigent
lourdement autour de ma tête, sur mon oreiller, en laissant derrière
eux une poudre jaune comme du pollen. Je ne puis dormir : nuit
d’orage, de pluie battante, de chaleur moite. Je dépose le Journal
des de Goncourt et vais au balcon pour me rafraîchir. Il fait un noir
opaque, fouetté par des émanations qui illuminent tout le pays, et en
bas, dans le jardin, j’aperçois un ver luisant qui brille, même quand
les éclairs embrasent tout : il s’occupe bien des intempéries, celui-
là… Je scrute la nuit, mais je ne vois pas voltiger l’amoureux
phosphorescent, incandescent, qu’elle appelle, et elle luit, luit, dans
le gazon inondé…
Quant à mes oreillers, ils sont couverts de papillons : rien n’égale
leur beauté, leur variété de formes, de couleurs, et le précieux des
tissus : jamais manteau de déesse n’a pu approcher de cette
délicate opulence. Mais, mes chéris, où voulez-vous que je pose ma
tête ? Vous me préparez une nuit blanche… Voilà, ils se fourrent
dans mes cheveux, mon cou… Je vais chercher mon verre
agrandissant… Ah ! ce sont des monstres merveilleux, à tête
énorme, au crâne bossué, à cornes, à trompes, à suçoirs, à pattes
barbelées… Seulement, mes trésors, je voudrais dormir et,
maintenant que je vous ai vus, je voudrais bien me débarrasser de
vous, et vous êtes là d’une familiarité… vous descendez le long de
mon dos, sous mon vêtement, et vous glissez, toutes ailes
déployées, le long de mes draps…
Ça va finir : je vais éteindre, et ils se colleront tous au plafond…

1918.

On lance des mines dans les bruyères. C’est une chute brutale,
pesante, sans écho, qui doit réduire en bouillie ou vous incruster en
terre. Mon Dieu, comme cela m’ébranle le système nerveux !
Dans les pinières où je me promène, il fait délicieux : la pluie
d’hier a rendu le tapis d’aiguilles moelleux ; une légère brise fait
onduler les cimes de pins ; le soleil filtre, le parfum de résine
ressemble à de l’encens : exquis, exquis ! Mes chiens courent et
aboient après un écureuil qui, de terreur, saute d’une haute pinière
dans une basse ; il tombe, ils l’ont ! Non, d’un bond il est de nouveau
en haut ; la chienne, de frénésie, bondit à une hauteur de deux
mètres et embrasse l’arbre ; aïe, elle se déchire le ventre et hurle ;
l’écureuil voltige déjà au loin, poursuivi par les deux chiens.
Rien dans la nature n’est ami ou bienveillant. Voilà des
aéroplanes de guerre qui s’exercent au-dessus des pinières…
Encore des mines, han ! han !… Les merles chantent… Je continue
ma promenade, l’esprit dispersé et ne pouvant se fixer sur rien par
l’agitation que me donne ce bruit.
Voilà encore un joli écureuil, au ventre blanc, que mes chiens ont
découvert ; il veut se mettre en sûreté dans des pins plus élevés ; il
voltige jusque sur le bord d’un chemin. Voyant qu’il ne pourra
atteindre la branche qui avance de l’autre côté, il ricoche à droite, où
une autre s’étend au-dessus du chemin ; il y saute, file en coin, puis,
d’un bond plané, atteint une branche de la plus haute pinière. Alors il
fait tant de méandres que mes chiens perdent sa piste.
Eh bien, il n’y avait pas que de l’instinct dans les agissements de
l’écureuil : il y avait certainement de la réflexion et de la
combinaison.
Au loin le canon ! les mines ! le carnage et le massacre !

1918.

Un gros rhume m’oblige de garder le lit. A portée de la main, je

puis ouvrir et fermer la fenêtre. Entre par le balcon une hirondelle.
Elle se débat contre le carreau, les ailes déployées, la queue étalée,
la respiration haletante. Ah ! la belle créature ! Bleu profond, miroitant
comme du satin. Je ne puis voir la poitrine. Sur chaque penne de la
queue en éventail, une tache blanche, les deux pennes de chaque
côté allongées en pinceau. Dieu, si je pouvais la tenir en main, la
garder un peu, la caresser ! mais elle est déjà affolée, me sentant
derrière elle : il serait cruel de la prendre. Attends, ma chérie.
J’ouvre la fenêtre. Houp ! Elle est partie !
 5 mai 1922.

Je soupe chez la petite femme, avec du lait chaud et du pain de

corinthes.
Mitje et Remi reviennent avec les vaches et nous racontent
comment la génisse rousse, qui n’est encore sortie que quelquefois,
s’est mise à courir et à sauter quand la pluie, qu’elle ne connaissait
pas, est tombée sur elle :
— Nous avons eu toutes les peines du monde à la rattraper, elle
était folle.
Puis Remi dit :
— Quand elle ne sait pas que je la laisse aller sans longe, elle
reste tranquillement à brouter à côté de moi, mais, si elle s’aperçoit
qu’elle est en liberté, elle court vers la bleue, se frotte à elle et lui
lèche le mufle : c’est une curieuse bête.
— Mais, fait Mitje, les vaches s’aiment et se détestent comme les
gens. Si je ne mettais pas, à l’étable, la bleue entre la blanche et la
tachée, elles se démoliraient. C’est la bleue qui arrange tout : le soir,
elle lèche à droite et à gauche, et il faut voir la jalousie de celle qui
doit attendre et comme elle gémit… Et le matin, la bleue est toujours
couchée contre l’une ou l’autre, qui lui lèche à son tour le dos ou le
mufle… Et le long des routes, quand une vache étrangère
s’approche de la bleue, elle la regarde une fois de côté, puis
continue son chemin, tandis que les autres se rapprochent et sont
prêtes à jouer des cornes.
— Oui, ce sont de curieuses bêtes, répéta Remi, mais le moindre
homme vaut mieux que toutes les bêtes.
Je saute sur mes pieds avec une telle violence que Remi en est
tout effrayé.
— Parce qu’elles n’ont pas d’âme, bégaye-t-il.
Ame ! âme ! quelle âme ? et la bleue n’en aurait pas ! Et je
cherche une comparaison.
 — Voyons, Triene, qui se dispute avec tout le monde et ne
cherche qu’à nuire, de fureur de ce qu’elle est laide… Voyons !…
Mais, devant ces six yeux incrédules, je cours vers la porte et
leur crie :
— La bleue, pas d’âme ! Moi, vous savez, je donnerais douze
Triene pour une bleue !

8 mai 1922.

Chez le boucher du village.

Il est planté au milieu de la rue, le col de sa chemise ouvert, la
poitrine nue, les manches retroussées, les bras et le tablier maculés
de sang. Il respire un instant entre deux tueries.
Un porc qui fume encore est, coupé en deux, pendu dans la
boucherie ; un bol est posé à terre sous les moitiés de la tête, pour
recueillir les dernières gouttes de sang. Un autre porc est encore sur
la charrette, étendu en plein soleil dans une caisse en lattes qui
l’immobilise, et un troisième a une corde nouée à une patte de
derrière, qui le retient au garde-fou du pont du petit ruisseau, où tout
à l’heure son sang coulera, car le boucher a bâti expressément au
bord pour y laisser écouler le sang inutile : ce ruisseau alimente
d’eau potable la ville voisine.
Le chien du boucher, un jeune de ma Loulotte, joue autour du
porc attaché par la patte, qui ne demande pas mieux que de se
familiariser et le suit de son pied engourdi, en grognant de manière
amicale.
— Mais, boucher, comme votre chien engraisse !
— C’est parce qu’il est châtré.
— Châtré ! pourquoi ? Un mâle ne vous reviendrait pas plein de
jeunes.
— Non, mais il en ferait partout, et tout le monde aurait un beau
chien comme moi, et ils vendraient les jeunes un gros prix sans que
j’en aie rien. Je ne voulais pas ça.
 — Mais, boucher, une des beautés du berger de Malines est son
tempérament fougueux et féroce, et maintenant c’est une moule. Je
m’étonnais déjà de son air indolent.
— Indolent, lui, ha ! Quand je tue une bête, il m’aide. Pour
saigner un porc, je le couche, n’est-ce pas, je mets un genou sur sa
panse, je tiens un pied d’une main, et de l’autre j’enfonce le couteau.
Eh bien, lorsqu’il gigote, le chien, sans que je le lui aie appris, prend
l’autre pied dans sa gueule et ne le lâche que si le porc ne bouge
plus.
« J’achète mes veaux chez le paysan ; quand je les emmène, ils
refusent de marcher ; alors le chien leur mord la queue, et les veaux
marchent. Et tout cela, je ne le lui ai pas appris : il a compris qu’il
doit m’aider. »
Mais comme je me sens agacée de la mutilation de la belle
créature, je veux lui dire une chose antipathique.
— Eh bien, boucher, si vous ne l’aviez pas émasculé, il vous
aiderait peut-être davantage. Quant aux jeunes qu’il ferait ailleurs, ce
ne seraient que des bâtards, puisqu’il n’y a que le vôtre de vraie race
au village. Et tout le monde vous envierait votre beau chien, tandis
que maintenant…
Et je fais une moue méprisante.
— Oui, on me l’envierait ? et il m’aiderait peut-être encore
mieux ?…
Et une ombre de regret passe dans ses yeux.
Je pars contente.
Le chien mutilé va tout de même flairer les autres chiens.
 TABLE

Pages
Angelinette 7
Je voulais en faire un homme 67
La petite femme et ses enfants 121
Bêtes en cage et bêtes en liberté 183
MAYENNE, IMPRIMERIE CHARLES COLIN
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ANGELINETTE
***

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