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Geographical Modeling
Modeling Methodologies in Social Sciences Set
coordinated by
Roger Waldeck
Volume 2
Geographical Modeling
Edited by
Denise Pumain
First published 2019 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as
permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced,
stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers,
or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the
CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the
undermentioned address:
www.iste.co.uk www.wiley.com
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Denise PUMAIN
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
Introduction
of the computers of the time and the insufficient competence of the services
in the analysis and modeling of spatial data have long slowed down the
effective integration of these tools into many activities (Goodchild 2016).
One of the current challenges in fully exploiting the new major computer
capacities and democratizing geographical information is to make judicious
and appropriate use of the knowledge and skills accumulated about cities and
territories, not only through geography, but also by all disciplines that have
sooner or later integrated the “spatial turn” into their research approaches,
from agronomy to archeology and from history to epidemiology.
These disciplines share the construction of models, which are above all
summaries of knowledge, simplified in relation to the diversity and
complexity of individual cases, but communicable and improvable because
they are codified, at a given moment in the state of knowledge, by
mathematical or computer formalizations. The knowledge integrated into a
model represents sets of recurrent facts in empirical observations, which
have been selected according to the hierarchy of their effects on the problem
being studied, with more or less parsimony depending on whether we focus
on the generality or precision of the results. Calculation or simulation is used
to propose predictions, or to explore possible scenarios, as part of the model
assumptions. According to appropriate granularities and levels of resolution,
all forms of modeling can be used with extremely variable objectives:
laboratory hypothesis tests for theoretical models, serious games with a
didactic function, support models designed to solve difficult situations
including contradictory or even conflicting issues, models inserted in
interactive applications intended for information or decision support,
commonplace models generally used for location choices or infrastructure
templates, and so on.
The uses and functions of the models are multiple. They are often
designed for prediction (meteorological and financial models), more broadly
Introduction xi
devoted to the new visualization tools that are so important for model
exploration and validation, as well as for communicating their results.
At the end of the book, the index brings together the main concepts that
characterize geographical modeling. For the concepts that are already
precisely defined in the chapters devoted to them, the multiple page numbers
that testify to their appearance throughout the book make it possible to
understand how they also apply to widely shared intellectual and practitioner
approaches. Moreover, essential concepts such as “space”, “simulation”,
“territory”, “city”, and “visualization” do not appear in the index because
they are used and enriched many times by all of the authors. It is also
because of the great coherence of these texts that the bibliographical
references, which often appear several times, are grouped into one list at the
end. This provides an original and updated state of the art on the major
parallel and convergent directions in geographical modeling.
1
Complexity in Geography
The last three or four decades have completely renewed the modeling
practices of geographers. Two major changes, one epistemological and the
other technical, are at the origin of these transformations. Technological
change is the tremendous expansion of information processing capabilities,
which has made work that could previously only be sketched as thought
experiments possible, or work that has been carried out wholly incompletely
due to a lack of powerful computing resources. This technical change has
made it possible since about the 2000s to fully implement a major
epistemological change that occurred sometime earlier in the 1970s and
1980s. This is the introduction of paradigms and models from the natural
sciences into geography, whose keywords are self-organization (the
dissipative structures of Prigogine and Nicolis (1971)), synergetics (Haken
1977; Weidlich 2006), and complexity and the notion of emergence
(Bourgine et al. 2008). We will not recall here those filiations that are
already mentioned in several works (e.g. Dauphiné 2003; Pumain et al.
1989; Sanders 1992). We want to show not so much how these forms of
modeling can be applied in geography, but how to proceed for real model
transfers, since many theories of the discipline had already largely
anticipated the need for the newly proposed formalizations.
The general idea is that the complexity of the objects and processes
observed by geographers is always constructed, not so much in formulating
universal “laws”, but more often by including spatiotemporal elements, like
in other human and social sciences, which are fundamentally “historical
sciences” (Passeron 1991). These disciplines share with the natural sciences
certain forms of nonlinear relationships, processes of self-organization,
morphogenesis, dynamics oriented by attractors, or emergence phenomena
characteristic of complex systems, which are formalizable on specific case
subsets or segments of their trajectory. Geography adds to this complexity of
nonlinear processes the specific feature of being interested in a very wide
diversity of variables and levels of observation, including natural and social
elements, in an attempt to formalize the evolution of landscapes, cities, and
territories, which gives an additional dimension to the complexity of the
systems that geography models1.
1 A few other disciplines such as archeology or social and environmental epidemiology also
deal with indicators relating to the natural sciences as well as the humanities and social
sciences.
Complexity in Geography 3
In its academic history, geography has long been at the interface between
the natural and human sciences. Taking into account the description of the
planet (Robic et al. 2006) and its transformation into environments and
landscapes by societies (Robic 1992), it had built a few general models. The
relationship between the material organization of societies and natural
resources, mediated by climatic and altitudinal zones, had been well observed
and described, revealing some regularities. In particular, they highlighted the
fairly close interdependence between ancient societies and the local character
of mineral and plant resources used in housing and agriculture, which did not,
however, exclude long-distance trade in less common commodities. When
such regularities were systematized to excess (e.g. “limestone votes left,
granite votes right” to caricature the positions of André Siegfried, founding
geographer of electoral sociology in the 1930s, who actually linked the
hydrography of these environments to their form of habitat, grouped, or
dispersed and to the degree of dependence of the inhabitants on the
domination of landowners), the corresponding statements were quickly
rejected on the grounds of “determinism”. Conversely, noting the great
diversity of selections and combinations of resources made by societies under
more or less equivalent physical conditions could also, on the contrary, lead
to “exceptionalism” (Schaefer 1953). This expression covers Schaefer’s
criticism, both of the claims, which was frequent at the time, of a specificity
of the geographical explanation, based on the genetics of the places, and of its
consequence consisting in highlighting the uniqueness of the places. Regional
Some other types of regularities had indeed been observed since at least
the early 19th Century in the organization of cities and territories and gave
rise to various attempts at formalization, through mathematical models or
iconic representations. The regularities of the spacing of cities, the hierarchy
of their functions, and the interlocking of their catchment areas had been
described since 1841 by the Saint-Simonian Jean Reynaud as “the general
system of cities” strongly constrained by the use of the nearest service and
thus generating forms of circular or hexagonal service areas, interlocking
according to a hierarchy of rarity of urban services (Reynaud 1841; Robic
1982). This concept and the derived spatial models had little immediate
impact, but the principles of a theory associating the size of cities with the
rarity of their economic functions and the extent of their clientele in the
surrounding region were rediscovered and systematized by the German
geographer Walter Christaller (1933) in a “central place theory”, which was
the subject of multiple tests in all parts of the world (Berry and Pred 1961).
This theory actually included the previous model known as the “Reilly law
of retail gravitation” (Reilly 1931), which explained the location of
commercial activities by competition between businesses and services
frequented by consumers under the constraint of proximity. In both the
Reilly and Christaller models, travel costs are borne by the consumer and are
added to the price of goods, encouraging people to buy from the nearest
place. This determines, in the cartographic representations, more or less
circular-shaped catchment areas, which fit together in the form of hexagons
in the spatial diagrams drawn by Christaller.
was coined by the French geographer Jean Gottman (1961) about the
Northeast megalopolis, the group of cities that stretches from Boston to
Washington. Although it is made up of distinct urban entities, whose urban
structure is not continuous, this large regional complex appears to be a
functional unit due to the multiplicity of communication and exchange
networks that connect these cities together and make them complementary in
a differentiated territory. The concept of a region then gradually emerged
from the criteria of landscape homogeneity or historical delimitation that had
hitherto underpinned it and was enriched by the concept of a functional
region, defined by the polarization of traffic flows and the strong economic
and social interdependencies between the cities and countryside that
constitute it. This new form taken by geographical investigation then makes
it possible, under the designation of “locational analysis” (Haggett 1965), to
identify all kinds of regularities in geographical space and to build canonical
models, whose ancestors are often shared by economists specializing in the
emerging “regional science” (Isard 1960).
4 There are exceptions, including the work of William Bunge, who in 1962 proposed a
“Theoretical Geography” based on axioms and which was rather geometrical, and who also
analyzed social inequalities in the suburbs of Chicago with quantified indices (Fitzgerald:
Geography of a Revolution, Schenkman Publishing Cy, Cambridge, 1971, p. 1071) where he
denounced the capture of land rents by the richest and the poor living conditions imposed on
black people.
Complexity in Geography 9
With their theories of complex systems, physicists who enter the social
sciences to propose models are often tempted to project some of the
constraints they have built to analyze the forces at work in the physical
world. Although energy, in the various forms of solar radiation, gravity or
animal, human, and mechanical work, is always taken into account in
technical artifacts or human organizations, it is not very effective to consider
that this is the main constraint (or last resort) that would govern the
construction of human activity on the Earth’s surface and from which the
form of the socio-spatial organizations studied in geography would have
been identified (West 2017). The configurations of cities and territories that
can be modeled by geographers are built by accumulated human work,
carried out under material constraints, but also with some well-identified
anthropological and social determinants, e.g. the relatively universal
principle of the “law of least effort” as enunciated by G. K. Zipf (1949), or
the frequent effects of political, cultural, or economic domination were
observed in social relations and interactions.
introduces some repetitions, as the processes that generate them are complex
according to the meaning of this term in the social sciences. These processes
are difficult to separate from each other because they often interfere together
during the genesis of cities and territories.
It is, therefore, not the physical analogy5 but rather the relevance of its
mathematical formula to summarize the form taken by observations of
spatial interactions that made the success of the gravitational principle to
describe space organizations very strongly structured by distance from a
center. The potential models, or the so-called “Reilly’s law” model
(presented in section 1.1.2), indicate that the attraction force is proportional
to the mass of the center and inversely proportional to the distance between
it and the other places considered. It is used to delimit market areas, around
shopping centers, or zones of influence around urban centers. Geomarketing
techniques have a large intake of gravity models, in which factors of
attraction, as well as distance measurements, are obviously modulated
according to the cases analyzed.
5 The physicist and geographer Alan Wilson, who considerably improved the estimation
technique of the spatial interaction model, interpreted it in terms of “entropy maximization”
and then linked it to the statistical theory of information.
14 Geographical Modeling
Whether the centers are spread out as stages on a route or tend to cover a
territory according to a grid, they emerge at a distance characteristic of other
centers, called spacing. Spacing is on average twice the range, i.e. the
maximum length of travel by customers to obtain the service in question.
The regularity of spacing is explained by the amount of population or
activities that the centers serve, not simply by physical distance. The average
spacing between centers increases with their level of complexity. The result
is a hierarchical organization of the spatial structure of the centers, which is
clearly demonstrated in the models of Walter Christaller’s central places
theory, for example. The differentiation of space into centers and peripheries
can be seen at different geographical scales. The multi-scale organization
characteristic of the exercise of centrality and polarization encourages us to
explore the fractal nature of the evolutionary processes that generate the
hierarchical configurations of central places and their peripheries (see
Chapter 3). The centers compete for the resources on their periphery and
develop innovations during this interactive process. The development of
innovations depends on the action of the actors located in the center. This
consists either in a creation, anticipation, and attempt to exploit a profit, or in
an imitation of an innovation that has succeeded elsewhere, and these two
attitudes constitute an adaptation strategy. The innovations thus imposed or
imitated are disseminated among the centers, by proximity or hierarchical
dissemination (see sections 1.2.2–1.2.4). A center only acquires a higher
level of centrality by accumulating and complexifying its activities if it
succeeds in competing with other centers by capturing the initial advantage
of a sufficient number of innovations. It is because this process has been
carried out under the constraint of distance, wherever interactions have
occurred over a fairly long period of time in contiguity, according to the
proximity rule, that so many regularities have been introduced into the
spacing of urban centers, at least in the very ancient regions of the world.
[XVI]
[Inhoud]
VERBETERINGEN.
Blz. 2 regel 15 v. b. staat: wreedzame, lees: vreedzame.
5 4 v. b.
: hebben, : heb.
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7 6 v. o.
: geidialiseerd, : geïdealiseerd.
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11 2 v. b. moet met wegvallen.
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17 10 v. o. staat: voor, lees: voort.
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28 moeten de regels 9 en 10 v. o. omwisselen.
,,
33 regel 5 v. o. staat: heuvel, lees: hemel.
,,
33 1 v. o.
: 19, : 20.
,, ,, ,, ,,
39 7 v. b.
: hebben, : heeft.
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60 8 v. o.
: tot, : in.
,, ,, ,, ,,
112 11 v. o. lees: schoonbroeders.
: schoonbroeder,
,, ,, ,,
112 9 v. o. lees: broêrs.
: broêr,
,, ,, ,,
121 3 v. b.
: hadden, : had.
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137 4 v. b.
: wraken, : wrake.
,, ,, ,, ,,
142 2 v. b.
: hem, : hen.
,, ,, ,, ,,
142 3 v. b.
: zij, : hij.
,, ,, ,, ,,
: hem, : hen.
,, ,,
: zouden, : zou.
,, ,,
151 7 v. o. lees: vlechtpatroon.
: weefpatroon,
,, ,, ,,
162 4 v. o. moet niet wegvallen.
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189 3 v. b. en regel 4 v. o. staat: kanibalen, lees: kannibalen.
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189 8 v. b. staat: Giorgia, lees: Georgia.
,, ,,
231 5 v. o.
: het, : den.
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241 1 v. b.
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[1]
[Inhoud]
I. INDIANEN-BEVOLKING VAN WEST-INDIË.
[Inhoud]
Inleidende beschouwingen.
Voor vele lezers heb ik het nuttig geoordeeld, aan de namen van
planten en dieren en van cultuurbezittingen eene korte toelichting
toe te voegen, die, omdat velen ook in de Negervertellingen
voorkomen, in een afzonderlijk, alphabetisch gerangschikt register
aan het slot van dezen bundel zijn vereenigd en naar welke door een
* in den tekst verwezen wordt. [7]
[Inhoud]
Het geloof aan een Godheid, aan één enkel Opperwezen, gedragen
door een dienst, die door een bijzonderen priesterstand wordt
uitgeoefend, die zich boven den arbeid van de z.g.
tooverkunstenaars of geestenbezweerders verheft, komt, volgens de
meeste schrijvers, bij de Indianen niet voor en strookt ook niet met
de oorspronkelijke denkwijze der Indianen. Wanneer mededeelingen
van sommige schrijvers deze meening schijnen te logenstraffen,
hebben zij Indianen op het oog gehad, wier godsdienstige begrippen
reeds onder Christelijken invloed gewijzigd zijn.
Verwonderen kan het dus niet, dat hij, die, zij het slechts korten tijd,
te midden der Indianen verblijf heeft mogen houden, het leven in de
zoogenaamde beschaafde maatschappij slechts met een gevoel van
afkeer kan beschouwen 3 en dat de Indiaan, die een tijd lang in de
voor hem zoo vreemde wereld heeft doorgebracht, met een
onbedwingbare macht weêr naar zijn land en zijn volk wordt
heengetrokken. Hij verlangt—zooals een Indiaan, die Europa
bezocht, het uitdrukte—niet meer terug „naar het koude, hartelooze
land der blanken”.
[14]
[Inhoud]
De Geschiedenis
1. van Haboeri.
De oorsprong
2. der eerste menschen.
De oorsprong
3. van het menschdom.
De oorsprong
4. der Caraïben.
Hoe de
5. Caraïben gekweekte planten leerden kennen.
De dochter
6. van den geestenbezweerder.
Hoe lichaamspijnen,
7. dood en ellende in de wereld kwamen.
Het hoofd
8. van den Boschgeest en de nachtzwaluw.
De vrouw,
9. die een boschgeest nabootste.
De Geest
10. van de schimmelplant redt het jonge meisje.
De jagoear,
11. die in een vrouw veranderde.
De man
12. met een baboenvrouw.
De schildpad,
13. die de boschrat er in liet loopen.
De bedrieger
14. bedrogen.
Tijger
15.en miereneter.
Hariwali
16. en de wonderboom.
Legende
17. van den Ouden man’s val.
Amanna
18. en haar praatzieke man.
De zon
19. en zijn beide tweelingzoons.
De legende
20. van den vleermuisberg.
De uil
21.en zijn schoonbroêr-vleermuis.
De lichtkever
22. en de verdwaalde jager.
De bina,
23. de weder in het leven geroepen vader en de
slechte vrouw.