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2023 MS P1 A'L STATISTICS TUKs & MR SHARE
2023 MS P1 A'L STATISTICS TUKs & MR SHARE
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Mr SHARE ONLINE
REVISION
ft.
TUKS. t; 1~2 testing
General Certificate of Education Advanced Level
STATISTICS 6046/1
PAPER 1
SOLUTION 2023 (ZIMSEC EXAM) 3 hours
Additional materials:
Answer paper
Graph paper
List of formulae MF7
Electronic calculator (Non-programmable)
Time 3 hours
INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
Write your name in the spaces provided on the answer sheet/answer booklet.
Answer 𝒂𝒍𝒍 questions.
If a numerical answer cannot be given exactly, and the accuracy required is not specified in the
question, then in the case of an angle it should be given correct to the nearest degree, and in other
cases it should be given to 2 significant figures.
INFORMATION TO CANDIDATES
The number of marks is given in brackets [ ] at the end of each question or part of question.
You are reminded of the need for clear presentation in your answers.
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1.
(a)
(i) Direct observation
- By observing the rain as it enters directly into the rain gauge, collecting
data and recording the data manually/ electronically using electronic rain
gauges.
(ii) Advantage
- The respondent is unaware of being observed and therefore behaves in a
natural way.
Disadvantage
- It is a passive form of data collection as there is no opportunity to
investigate the behavior further.
2.
(a)
(i) Mutually exclusive events
- Events which cannot both occur/take place at the same time/ together.
- If A and B are mutually exclusive events then;
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
(ii) Independent events
- Events which have no effect on each other/ the occurrence of one event
has no effect on the outcome of the other.
- If A and B are independent events then;
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
(b)
(i) Prime numbers = 2, 3, 5, 7
𝟒
𝑃(𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) =
𝟗
Odd numbers = 1, 3, 5, 7, 9
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(ii)
(𝑂 ∩ 𝑃)
𝑃(𝑂|𝑃) =
𝑃(𝑃)
3
=9
4
9
𝟑
=
𝟒
3. 𝑛 = 15 ∑ 𝑥 = 724.25
∑ 𝑥 2 = 40852.5375
Mean;
∑ 𝑥 724.25
(𝑥̅ ) = =
𝑛 15
= 48.283 …
= $𝟒𝟖. 𝟐𝟖
Standard deviation;
40852.5375 2897 2
(𝛿) = √ −( )
15 60
= 19.804 …
= $𝟏𝟗. 𝟖𝟎
4. Total (𝑛) = 52
Spades (𝑆) = 13
Not spades (𝑆 ′ ) = 52 − 13 = 39
13 39
4𝐶 × 2𝐶
∴ 𝑃(𝑆 = 4) = 52
6𝐶
529815
=
20358520
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟔 (𝟐 𝒔. 𝒇)
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OR;
13 12 11 10 13 12 6!
𝑃=( × × × × × × × 3)
52 51 50 49 48 47 2! × 4!
13 12 11 10 13 13 6!
+( × × × × × × × 3)
52 51 50 49 48 47 4!
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟔 (𝟐 𝒔. 𝒇)
5.
(a) Permutations ( 𝒏𝒓𝑷) – is the number of ways of arranging a subset of 𝑟 objects from
a group of 𝑛 objects where the order of selection is important.
Combination ( 𝒏𝒓𝑪) – the number of ways of selecting a subset of 𝑟 objects from a
group of 𝑛 objects where the order of selection is not important.
OR;
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(ii)
𝐵1 𝐵2 𝐵3 𝐵4 ----
4!
1 + 5 = 6 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠
NB: Treat 4 books as one, and it can be arranged in 4! ways, now we have 6 books
which can be arranged in 6!. Hence in total we have 6!4! ways.
OR;
6.
(a) Bayes Theorem
- A mathematical formula for determining conditional probabilities of
events which describes the probabilities of occurrence of an event related
to any condition
- Describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of
conditions that might be related to the event.
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
𝐴, 𝐵 – events
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) - probability of A given B is true
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) – probability of B given A is true
𝑃(𝐴), 𝑃(𝐵) – independent probabilities of A and B
(b) 0.05 D
B
0.75 0.95
D’
0.08 D
0.25 B’
0.92
D’
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𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐷)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐷) =
𝑃(𝐷)
0.75 × 0.05
=
(0.75 × 0.05) + (0.25 × 0.08)
0.0375
=
0.0575
𝟏𝟓
= 𝒐𝒓 (𝟎. 𝟔𝟓)
𝟐𝟑
7. Let X be the r.v ‘drivers for passenger vehicle who pay a fine’
𝑋~𝐵𝑖𝑛(15; 0.24) 𝑞 = 0.76
15
(i) 𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = 3𝐶 × 0.243 × 0.7612
= 0.2335 …
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑 (𝟐 𝒔. 𝒇)
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Win or loss = 4 − 4 = 0
1 3 1
𝑃(𝐻 = 3) = 𝐻𝐻𝐻 = ( ) =
2 8
Amount awarded = 2(3) = 6
Win or loss = 6 − 4 = 2
ℎ 0 1 2 3
𝑃(𝐻 = ℎ) 1 3 3 1
8 8 8 8
Win /loss −4 −2 0 2
(b) No, I would not advise him because the game is unfair since there is only a
1
8
× 100% = 12.5% chance of winning/ he will lose $1
9.
(a) 𝑛 = 12 ∑ 𝑦 = 790
∑ 𝑥 = 838
∑ 𝑥 838
(𝑥̅ ) = =
𝑛 12
= 69.833 …
= 𝟕𝟎 (𝟐 𝒔. 𝒇)
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∑ 𝑦 790
(𝑦̅) = =
𝑛 12
= 65.833 …
= 𝟔𝟔 (𝟐 𝒔. 𝒇)
(b) Drawing a scatter diagram on the graph;
(c) Drawing of line of best fit on graph;
NB; Using (𝑥̅ ; 𝑦̅) = (69.8; 65.8) and any other point for example (44; 50.5)
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10.
(a) If 𝑛 is large and 𝑛𝑝 > 5 and 𝑛𝑞 > 5
(b) Let X be the r.v ‘students who enjoy basketball’
𝑋~𝐵𝑖𝑛(50; 0.2) 𝑞 = 0.8
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 = 50 × 0.2 = 10
𝛿 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 50 × 0.2 × 0.8 = 8
∴ 𝑋~𝑁(10; 8)
𝑃(𝑋 > 15) → 𝑃(𝑋 > 15.5)
15.5 − 10
= 𝑃 (𝑍 > )
√8
= 𝑃(𝑍 > 1.945)
= 1 − ∅(1.945)
= 1 − 0.9741
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓𝟗
NOTES;
Normal distribution can be used to approximate binomial distribution when
𝑛 is large and 𝑛𝑝 > 5, and 𝑛𝑞 > 5.
Remember to apply continuity correction when approximating binomial/
poison distribution (discrete) by a normal distribution (continuous).
Discrete Continuous
𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑎) 𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑎 + 0.5)
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑎) 𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑎 − 0.5)
𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑎) 𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑎 − 0.5)
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑎) 𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑎 + 0.5)
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑎) 𝑃(𝑎 − 0.5 < 𝑋 < 𝑎 + 0.5)
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11.
(a) 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 3𝑘 + 4𝑘 = 1
10𝑘 = 1
𝟏
𝒌 = 𝟏𝟎
1
(b) 𝐸(𝑋) = 10 (1 + 4 + 15 + 24)
𝟐 𝟐𝟐
= 𝟒. 𝟒 𝒐𝒓 (𝟒 𝟓 𝒐𝒓 )
𝟓
= 22.8 − 19.36
𝟏𝟏 𝟖𝟔
= 𝟑. 𝟒𝟒 𝒐𝒓 𝟑 𝟐𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟐𝟓
12.
(a) Time series;
A set of numeric data/ sequence of observations of a random variable taken over
time at equally spaced points /regular intervals (hourly/ weekly/ monthly/
quarterly/ yearly) and arranged in a chronological time order of their occurrence.
(b) 3 types of variations
- Cyclical variations
- Seasonal variations
- Irregular/ random variations
(c) Number of 4 – point MA = 3 [i.e (6 – 4)+ 1 = 3]
13.
(a) Let X be the r.v ‘the number of clients with houses built with the strong cement’
𝐻0 : 𝑝 = 0.95
𝐻0 : 𝑝 ≠ 0.95
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(b) No, because there is no evidence that the cement has a greater success rate in
providing strong walls.
14.
(a) 𝑋~𝐵𝑒𝑟𝑛(𝑝) 𝑞 =1−𝑝
Standard deviation;
𝛿 = 0.3
√𝑝𝑞 = 0.3
𝑝(1 − 𝑝) = 0.32
𝑝 − 𝑝2 = 0.09
𝑝2 − 𝑝 + 0.09 = 0
1 ± √0.64
𝑝=
2
1 ± 0.8
𝑝=
2
𝑝 = 0.9 𝑜𝑟 0.1
∴ 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝟎. 𝟗 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟏
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NOTES;
If 𝑋~𝐵𝑒𝑟𝑛(𝑝) 𝑞 =1−𝑝
- 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑝 and 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝑝𝑞 → s. d, 𝛿 = √𝑝𝑞
Difference between Binomial and Bernoulli distribution;
- In binomial distribution the number of trials 𝑛 is finite and 𝑛 > 1.
- In Bernoulli distribution the number of trial 𝑛 is fixed to 1 only.
Tossing a fair coin once (Bernoulli distribution) but tossing a fair coin (2, 3
or more times) is a binomial distribution.
1
(ii) 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑝
1
= 0.7
𝟑 𝟏𝟎
=𝟏 𝒐𝒓 ( 𝒐𝒓 𝟏. 𝟒)
𝟕 𝟕
1−𝑝
𝛿=√
𝑝2
0.3
=√
0.72
= 0.782 …
= 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖 (𝟐 𝒔. 𝒇)
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15.
(a) Conditions for Poisson distribution;
- Events must occur singly
- Events must occur uniformly
- Events must occur at a constant rate
- Events must occur independently
- Events must occur randomly
(b) If 𝑋~𝑃𝑜(4.5)
(i) Mean;
𝐸(𝑋) = 𝛽
= 𝟒. 𝟓
Standard deviation;
S. d, 𝛿 = √𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = √𝛽
= √4.5
= 2.121 …
= 𝟐. 𝟏 (𝟐 𝒔. 𝒇)
−4.5
4.52 4.53 4.54 4.55
= 1−𝑒 (1 + 4.5 + + + + )
2! 3! 4! 5!
Or;
−4.5
4.52
=1−𝑒 (1 + 4.5 + ⋯ + )
5!
= 0.297 …
= 𝟎. 𝟑𝟎 (𝟐 𝒔. 𝒇)
(iii) By trial and error;
𝑃(𝑋 < 6) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 5) = 0.7029
𝑃(𝑋 < 5) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 4) = 0.5321
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∴𝑎=5
NB: (strictly by trial and error)
16.
Mid-point (𝑡) 5 15 30 60
Frequency (𝑓) 2 𝑓 11 4
∑ 𝑓𝑡 = 580 + 15𝑓
∑ 𝑓 = 17 + 𝑓
∑ 𝑓𝑡
(a) 𝑡̅ = ∑𝑓
580 + 15𝑓
27.5 =
17 + 𝑓
27.5(17 + 𝑓) = 580 + 15𝑓
467.5 + 27.5𝑓 = 580 + 15𝑓
12.5𝑓 = 112.5
𝒇=𝟗
𝑛
𝑐[ −𝐹(<)]
2
(b) Median = 𝑂𝑚𝑒 + 𝑓𝑚𝑒
26
20 [ − 11]
= 20 + 2
11
40
= 20 +
11
= 23.636 …
= 𝟐𝟒 𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒔 (𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
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Comment;
50% of the students spent less than nearly 24 minutes and the other 50% spent more
than nearly 24 minutes.
(c) Standard deviation;
∑ 𝑓𝑡 2
𝛿=√ − (𝑡)̅ 2
∑ 𝑓𝑡
26375
=√ − 27.52
26
= 16.067 …
= 𝟏𝟔 𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒔 (𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)
17.
(a)
(i) Stem Leaf
13 2 9
14 0 5 8 8
15 1 4 7
16 2 2 6
17 1 8
18 2
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(b)
16
(i) 𝑄1 = = 4𝑡ℎ 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
2
= 𝟏𝟒𝟓
16
𝑄2 = = 8𝑡ℎ 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
2
= 𝟏𝟓𝟒
3(16)
𝑄3 = = 12𝑡ℎ
4
= 𝟏𝟔𝟔
NB; drawing of the and whisker plot on the graph
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18.
𝑓(𝑥)
1
4
1
8
𝑥
0 1 2 3
(a) Taking;
1 3
1
∫ 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑘(3 − 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = 1
4
0 1
1 1 𝑥2
[𝑥] + 𝑘 [3𝑥 − ] 3 = 1
4 0 2 1
1 9 1
+ 𝑘 [(9 − ) − (3 − )] = 1
4 2 2
1
+ 𝑘(2) = 1
4
3
2𝑘 =
4
𝟑
𝒌=
𝟖
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Now;
Taking;
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑘(3 − 𝑥)
1
= 𝑘(3 − 1)
4
1
= 2𝑘
4
𝟏
𝒌=
𝟖
NOTE;
𝟑
IF WE USE THE VALUE OF 𝒌 = 𝟖, THE FUNCTION 𝒇(𝒙) WILL NOT BE
𝟑 𝟑 𝟏
CONTINUIOUS AT 𝒙 = 𝟏 i.e [𝟖 (𝟑 − 𝟏) = 𝟒 , 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝟒].
𝟏
BUT IF WE USE THE VALUE OF 𝒌 = 𝟖, THE FUNCTION 𝒇(𝒙) WILL BE
𝟏 𝟏
CONTINUOUS AT 𝒙 = 𝟏 i.e [𝟖 (𝟑 − 𝟏) = 𝟒], WHICH IS INDEED TRUE FOR
𝟏 𝟏
𝒚 = 𝟒 , 𝟎 < 𝒙 < 𝟏. HENCE THE VALUE OF 𝒌 = 𝟖
Also refer to ZIMSEC June 2013 P4 #5, and J Crawshaw Exercise 6d # 4 and 9
(b) Mean;
1 3
1 1
𝐸(𝑋) = ∫ 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑥(3 − 𝑥)𝑑𝑥
4 8
0 1
1 𝑥 1 1 3𝑥 2 𝑥 3 3
2
= [ ] + [ − ]
4 2 0 8 2 3 1
1 1 1 7
= [ ] + [4.5 − ]
4 2 8 6
𝟏𝟑
= 𝒐𝒓 (𝟎. 𝟓𝟒)
𝟐𝟒
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(c)
(i)
1 2
1 1
𝑃(0.8 < 𝑋 < 2) = ∫ 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ (3 − 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
4 8
0.8 1
1 1 1 𝑥2 2
= [ 𝑥] + [3𝑥 − ]
4 0.8 8 2 1
1 1 1 5
= [ − ] + [4 − ]
4 5 8 2
𝟏𝟗
= 𝒐𝒓 (𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟕𝟓)
𝟖𝟎
OR;
Area of rectangle + trapezium
𝑓(𝑥)
1
4
1
8
𝑥
0 0.8 1 2 3
1 1 1 1
𝑃(0.8 < 𝑋 < 2) = (4 × 0.2) + 2 (4 + 8) × 1
𝟏𝟗
= 𝟖𝟎 𝒐𝒓 (𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟕𝟓)
13
(ii) 𝑃[𝑋 > 𝐸(𝑋)] = 𝑃 (𝑋 > 24)
1 13 1 1
= [ (1 − ) + ( × 2 × )]
4 24 2 4
𝟑𝟓
= 𝒐𝒓 (𝟎. 𝟑𝟔)
𝟗𝟔
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𝟏
NB; Area of rectangle + triangle, 𝟐 𝒃𝒉
𝑓(𝑥)
1
4
𝑥
0 13 1 3
24
OR;
1 3
1 1
𝑃[𝑋 > 𝐸(𝑋)] = ∫ 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ (3 − 𝑥)𝑑𝑥
4 8
13 1
24
1 1 1 𝑥2 3
= [𝑥] + [3𝑥 − ]
4 13/24 8 2 1
1 13 1 9 1
= [ − ] + [(9 − ) − (3 − )]
4 96 8 2 2
11 1 9 5
= + [ − ]
96 8 2 2
𝟑𝟓
= 𝒐𝒓 [𝟎. 𝟑𝟔 (𝟐𝒔. 𝒇)]
𝟗𝟔
Mr Share [Mutare] +263784089807 & Mr Mubaiwa [Tuks.t: 1~2 testing] [Gweru] +263773380646 20
2023 [Mr SHARE & TUKS: 1~2 testing]
Mr Share [Mutare] +263784089807 & Mr Mubaiwa [Tuks.t: 1~2 testing] [Gweru] +263773380646
schingwingwi7@gmail.com / +263784089807
Sharewell B. C [Mr SHARE]
&
Tungamirai Mubaiwa [Tuks. t: 1~2 testing]
+263773380646
Proverbs 11 vs. 2
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AND
Tutors in:
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NB: If you click any of the links below and it fails to direct you straight to
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