REPRINTED FROM 5/16/2010

Gold Weekly (Log Scale) <Y>

-E-
We’ve seen plenty of strange “doubles” and “triples” that have not adhered to
good duration principles, but a Y-wave “should” be shorter in duration and price -C-
than the W-wave. In the model presented here, the <W> took 5 years (nice (Y)
Fibbo number). If the <Y> is going to <W> by 61.8%, then we should see a
three year move which would conclude in August 2010.
-A- - D -?
(W)

<Y> Wave Price Targets: (X)

<W>
$1,218 for 61.80% of <W> (log scale) -E-
$732
$1,450 for 78.62% of <W> (log scale)
$1,387 for 61.80% of <W> measured from
-B-
the top of <W> (log scale)
<X>
$643

-C- (X)
(C)

(A) (Y)
-D-
-A- (B) (W)
(C)

(A) -B-

(B) Three Year

Five Year Move?
Move
B

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold Weekly (Log Scale)
This is the second time I’ve led with the previous page’s chart (from 5/16/2010) because it’s
important to consider. Four months ago it was suggested that this move should conclude in
August with 1218 being the minimum objective. Essentially, an August epicenter at $1,218 -Y-
would be BOTH a 61.8% in price AND time for the Primary -Y- Wave. So, it’s interesting that (E)
for the last several weeks the market has oscillated right around that level. (C)
“y”

(A)
“w”
( D )?
-Y- Wave Price Targets:
$1,218 for 61.80% of -W- (log scale) “x“
-W-
(E)
Please note that wave labelling has been $732
reduced by one degree relative to all previous
reports. This is not that important of a factor.
Upon reflection, it just seemed like we were
dealing with smaller degree waves than where (B)
-X-
it had been assessed in past reports. $643
8/17/07

(C) “x”
“c”

“a”
“y”
(D)
(A) “b:
“c” “w”

“a”
(B)
“b” Three Year
Five Year
Move?
Move
<B>

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold Monthly (Log Scale) with RSI

One very important ingredient for major market turns is the presence
of RSI divergence. It’s notable that Gold has not been able to get
anywhere near the RSI peak set in early 2008 and has been
generating divergence with each subsequent new high.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold Weekly (Log Scale) with RSI

Gold is also registering negative divergence on the Weekly scale.

Highlighted here are the other two occasions this decade when this
has occurred. This has bearish implications.

There was one instance of

bullish RSI divergence here

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold Weekly (Log Scale)

This remains my “preferred” longer term wave count, but something interesting has occurred in
the last few weeks. The market failed to sustain the breakdown below the ( BD ) trendline,
-Y-
indicating that either a) the ( D ) did NOT end where we thought it did; or b) a Triangle ( E )
(E)
Wave is developing. For now, we favor the latter interpretation. Whenever a market (C)
“meanders” through a trend line as if it didn’t even exist, it’s a good signal that a triangle is “y”
developing.
(A)
“w”
( D )?

“x“
-W-
(E)
$732

(B)
-X-
$643

(C) “x”
“c”

“a”
“y”
(D)
(A) “b:
“c” “w”

“a”
(B)
“b”

<B>

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold Weekly (Log Scale)
If the ( E ) is finishing as a triangle, the wave count would look something
like this. The implication would be several more weeks of congestion -Y-
around the highs before a sharp break lower. The other thing about this (E)
pattern is that it would be a “Triangle” concluding a triangular/rising wedge “c” “e”
(C) “a”
pattern--this requires that the initial break lower be very dramatic. “y” $1,218??

“d”
“b”

(A) (D) Non-Conclusive

Line Break
“w”

“x”

(B)
-X-
$643

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold August Futures Daily
There seems to be a complete count here and the market has witnessed a good
decline from the $1,265 peak. However, the “pace” of the decline is not impressive, <Y>
especially when compared to the drop highlighted in the blue box. -E-
“c” (E)

(C) “e”

-C-
“a”
“d”

“b”
(A)
(B)
(D) (D)

(B)

(E)
(A) -D-
REPRINTED FROM 8/1/2010
(C)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold December Futures Daily
The wave count on the previous page was not correct because an E-Wave cannot be the longest wave of a
triangle. It’s better counted as a “double combination” or a “diametric” (note the diamond shape). This
model represents a slight change to previous wave counts in that
the (E) wave does not appear completed yet. This count calls for “a”
a Triangular development from the (D) Wave low. y Alt: b
-c- -e- “c”
w -a- Alt: ( E )
-c-
(E)
(C) “e”

-d-
-b-

-a-
“b” “d”

x
“d”
“b” This is channeling “too well” to be
considered an “impulse.” There are
Alt: a
simply too many “touch points.”
-b- Therefore, it must be considered
“corrective” in nature.

My previous “preferred” count is now the

“e”
“alternative” count in orange lettering.
“a” (D)

“c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold August Futures Daily

Move Ends Here

REPRINTED FROM 8/1/2010

So far, the move down from the highs is best counted as a “complex” correction and
not an impulse. The bears will be hoping for another sideways -x- wave to set up
(b) the last wave down (z-wave). As it stands, we have a possible completed count
coupled with a robust bounce*, so it’s time for shorts/bears to be “nimble” with
positions.

(a)
[2]
-x-

[4] (b)
[2]
[1]
[2]
[3] [4]
[1]
[5]
(c) [1]
[3]
-w- [5]
(a) [4]

* Sharp bounces on Fridays should be treated with some skepticism. [3] [5]
(c)
-y- of a?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold August Futures Daily

The move up from the “b” wave low is incredibly difficult to reconcile as anything other than
“a” “c”
a “non-orthodox” pattern, a diametric. Every up and down wave has been better counted
as a correction; thus, I’m stuck with this type of count. The recent move lower has NOT g?
been the most severe correction of the advance; therefore, it’s impossible to conclude
that the rally from the “b” wave low is over. e

-b-

c
f

-a-

(2)
x

a
d
(4)] -b-
(1) b
(3)
(5)
-c-
w
-a-

-c-
y
“b”
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 Gold August Futures Daily

The “diamond” shape of the “diametric” pattern can be observed better here. Again, a
“a” “c”
“diametric” is seven legged correction that is most likely a “morphed” double or triple zig-zag
pattern. This market pattern has likely evolved due to the popularity of the Elliott Wave g?
theory. An orthodox wave counter could easily “fit” the pattern into the form on the next page.
e

c
f

a
d

“b”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold August Futures Daily

An orthodox wave counter might try to explain the price action this way. The issue is that
“a” the moves higher are very difficult to categorize as impulsions. The first two supposed
“c”
“impulsions” lack clear “extended” waves and appear to be “seven-wave” moves--not the z
elements of a true “impulsion.” y
-c-

-a-
w
-c-

x
-b-

-a-
x

-b-

“b”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold December Futures ~ 240 minute

Identified here are classic technical support and resistance points for the weeks
ahead. A break of $1,233 should lead to a move to at least $1,211. This market
should have difficult times taking at the previous all time high (for Dec futures) at
$1,270.6

Necklin
e

Right
Left Shoulder
Shoulder

The target for this Head and Shoulder bottom is the all time high at
$1,270. It has already come pretty close to achieving that objective. This
is another case where a “lesser noticed” H&S came to fruition.

Head

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold Monthly (Log Scale)
The minimum timing objective of this Supercycle C-Wave has now been met and we can count a completed “double.”
Given the huge length of the B-Wave, it’s very possible that this C-Wave has more time. It could last another 2 - 6
years. Outlined here would be the count that would last longer* and possibly set a new high in the next few years.

C
REPRINTED FROM 8/1/2010 -Z-
-Y-
(Jan, 1980)
$873
A -X-

-W-

-X-

(Nov, 1974)
$191 B C - Wave Price Targets:
$260
(Feb, 2001)? $1,295 for 123.6% of A
$1,418 for 138.2% of A
$1,615 for 161.8% of A

$101 * “If there is a way for a wave to take longer to complete, then assume it will.”
(Aug, 1976)
$35
(Aug, 1970)
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 Gold Monthly (Log Scale) ~ Another Interpretation
This is NOT my wave count. This one is attributed to Glenn Neely (www.neowave.com) who believes were are
witnessing the end of a large degree multi-decade five wave advance My “issue” with this model is the extraordinarily
long time the Wave <IV> took to complete--it looks “out of proportion.” It’s worthwhile to note that he sees the
decade long advance from Cycle <IV> as a corrective move, not an impulsion. A fifth wave can be corrective, but the
implication is that it’s a “terminal” fifth wave--something that will be quite “conclusive” when it’s over.
<V>

< III >

<I> < IV >

The difference between this count and my preferred model is that when this one gets
finished, it will result in a dramatic and prolonged correction that could last decades.
Whereas the model on the previous page suggests a more modest correction that
< II > should only last several years.

$35
(Aug, 1970)
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
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NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s "I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not I  or A  = Supercycle
trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions <I>or <A> = Cycle
opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author (I) or (A) = Intermediate
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