(Z)

“c” S&P 500 (180 min.)

1050

The market ran into some troubles at the 61.8% retrace of the last wave down, a level that we had
identified as first resistance. The fact that it reversed at an “exact” 61.8% causes me a little concern--
trading isn’t THAT easy. A “retest” of this level, or the light blue downtrend line, would not be
surprising. This wave model still calls for at least one more leg lower.

(x)
(w)
(c) -x-
(a) (e)

(d)

(b)?
(y)
-w-
(b)

Key resistance points remain 1078 and 1100

(a)

(c)?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c”
1050 S&P 500 (180 min.) ~ Forcing a “Five Wave”

-2-
This more “orthodox” model that is popular among some folks (Daneric) can now be tossed in the
trashcan with today’s strength. A lesser degree wave-2 SHOULD NEVER be more powerful than the
higher degree wave-2 that preceded it. In this case, the wave-2 retraced ~38% and now we’ve seen a
wave-2- that retraced ~62%. This doesn’t fit logically and is not a correct interpretation of the wave
behavior. “IF” there is an impulse developing lower, it might look like the next page….
-1- (2)

(1)
2
(4) -c-
-4- -a-

(3) -2-
(5)
-3- -5-
1 -b-

-1-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c”
1050 S&P 500 (180 min.) ~ Forcing a “Five Wave”

-2-
Given the price action, this is the only way I would be able to count a “potential” five wave move lower.
It would have to a “first wave” extension. The next wave-5 would have to be relatively small and it
must start moving lower immediately. Interestingly, this wave model and my preferred wave count
(page 2) would be very similar looking.

-1- (2)

(1)
2
(4) -c-
-4- -a-

(3)
4
(5)
-3- -5-
1 -b-

3
5

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c” S&P 500 (180 min.)
1050

Friday’s “dramatic” reversal was proved bogus with Monday’s weak performance. The market
struggled into the 50% retrace of the last leg down. The best hope for the short term oriented bulls is
that the we get more sideways/higher congestion. The key resistance for bears remains unchanged at
1078 and 1100. This market remains in a downtrend until told otherwise (by the market).

(x)
(w)
(c) -x-
(a) (e)

(d)

(y)
-w- (b)?
(b)

Reprinted from 2/9/2010

(a)?

(c)?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Gold ~ April Futures (180 min.)
There are a few different ways to interpret this price action, but this is the model that makes the most
sense to me. The last wave down looked impulsive and the prior wave higher looked impulsive, so
that’s one of the reasons I’m left with this interpretation. The last wave down was somewhat
abbreviated, thus the wave -1- labeling, though it’s certainly possible that we actually completed the “y”
wave. The good news for trading is that next 24-48 hours should “tell the tale.” This market should not
get above 1095 under this model, and the next wave down should begin in an “impulsive” fashion.
Choppy/sideways correction from here would be bad news for Gold bears….

“x”

alt: “x”
x
-b-
b
-c-
x

-a-
w
-a-

y z
-2-
“w”
-c-
a
-b-

-1-
alt: c of “y”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (180 minute) ~ “Unorthodox model” y?
-g-
81.10

-e-

-c-

79.25?
x?
-a- -f-

-d-

-b-

The “unorthodox” model is so far serving us well. The weekend report suggested 4-5 days of correction,
and that’s what we’ve been getting. This move lower should finish within the next 24-48 hours. An ideal
target might be 79.25 for 161.8% of -d-=-f-. When -f- wave completes, we should get one more move higher
76.94 to the 81 zone.
x

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (180 minute) ~ “Unorthodox model”

y?
81.10 -g-
-e-

Reprinted from 2/9/2010

61.8% of w -c- -f-
x?
w -a-
78.45
-d-

-b-

w
76.94

x
This “unorthodox” model is getting my attention now because of the reasons discussed on 2/7/10. One of the other
concepts that doesn’t get much attention with waves is that they can be related by “external” Fibonacci relationships.
If you’ve read my work, or any other work on Wave Theory, you know that waves of the same degree, running in the
same direction, often relate by a Fibonacci number (i.e. 61.8% of a=c, a=c, or 161.8% of a=c). However waves can
also be related “externally.” For instance, a second wave up (or down) can terminate at 61.8% of the previous wave,
measured from the END of the first wave. This is often the setup with “doubles” and “triples,” as in this current model.
74.33 In this case, the 61.8% of w=y, measured from the end of the w-wave, would be 81.10 (log scale). This number
should be considered a “target” for the DXY in the near term.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical
commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of
what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from
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or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading
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