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ANDY BARR FOR CONGRESS / NRCC GENE ULM & ROBERT BLIZZARD PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES RECENT POLLING DATA

DATE: APRIL 30, 2012 ____________________________________________________________________________________ As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a survey of 400 likely 2012 voters in Kentuckys New 6th Congressional District on behalf of the Andy Barr for Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Campaign committee. The poll was conducted February 20-21 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY DATA Andy Barr trails Ben Chandler by single-digits, with Chandler under 50%. Among likely voters in Kentuckys New 6th Congressional District, Republican Andy Barr trails incumbent Ben Chandler by just seven, 42%-49%. Further, the percentage of voters who say they will definitely support Barr (31%) is the same as those who say they will definitely support Chandler (31%). Congressman Chandlers re-elect is upside down: 39% re-elect - 49% new person. When voters are asked whether they think Ben Chandler has performed his job as Congressman well enough to deserve re-election or if they think its time to give a new person a chance to do a better job fully 49% say its time for a new person, compared with just 39% who say Chandler deserves re-election. And, among voters who are undecided on the ballot, Chandlers re-elect score is just 9% re-elect 44% new person. Congressman Chandlers numbers are WORSE in the new parts of the district. In just the new parts of the district, Chandlers image is negative (38% favorable-41% unfavorable), his re-elect score is strongly inverted (27% re-elect-54% new person), and he TRAILS Andy Barr by a 45%-33% margin. Kentuckys New 6th District is NOT Obama friendly. President Obama is going to have a difficult time matching the 45% ballot support he received in the new district in 2008. The Presidents current job approval rating is just 39% in the new district, and more voters strongly disapprove of the job hes doing (45%) than approve. And, John McCains 55% in this district in 2008 in one of the worst Presidential years for a Republican since the 1960s will undoubtedly be just the floor of what the GOP Presidential nominees support can be in 2012.
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Page 1