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NC 22 - Nguồn gốc Lạm phát GĐ 2000-2010
NC 22 - Nguồn gốc Lạm phát GĐ 2000-2010
Bi Nghin cu NC-22
Mc lc
Mc lc ...................................................................................................................................... 2
Danh mc hnh ........................................................................................................................... 3
Danh mc bng .......................................................................................................................... 3
Gii thiu ................................................................................................................................... 4
Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam v nhng bin ng ca lm pht trong giai on 2000-2010 .... 5
Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam , 2000-2010 ............................................................................. 5
Tng trng kinh t ............................................................................................................ 5
Ngn sch nh nc............................................................................................................ 6
Thng mi quc t v t gi ............................................................................................. 7
Nhng bin ng trong lm pht ca Vit Nam trong mi quan h vi nhng thay i c bn
trong mi trng v chnh sch kinh t ..................................................................................... 8
Tng quan nhng kt qu nghin cu trc y v cc nhn t v m quyt nh lm pht .. 13
Cc nghin cu quc t ........................................................................................................ 13
Cc nghin cu v lm pht Vit Nam ............................................................................. 15
Phn tch cc nhn t v m c bn quyt nh lm pht Vit Nam ..................................... 16
M hnh ................................................................................................................................ 16
S liu v cc kim nh ...................................................................................................... 18
Kt qu m hnh VECM v nhng tho lun chnh sch .................................................... 19
Kt lun .................................................................................................................................... 23
Ti liu tham kho ................................................................................................................... 24
Ph lc ..................................................................................................................................... 26
Danh mc hnh
Hnh 1. Tng trng kinh t v lm pht, 1995-2009................................................................ 5
Hnh 2. Thu-chi v thm ht ngn sch, 2000-2009 .................................................................. 6
Hnh 3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai v d tr ngoi hi, 2000-2009 ......................................... 7
Hnh 4. T gi thc t v t gi danh ngha VND/USD, 2000-2009 (nm 2000 l nm gc)... 8
Hnh 5. T l lm pht Vit Nam, tc tng cung tin v tn dng, 1996-2009 ..................... 9
Hnh 6. T l lm pht ca Vit Nam v mt s nc, 2000-2009 ......................................... 11
Hnh 7. Lm pht hng nm (theo thng), 2000-2010 (%) ...................................................... 12
Hnh 8. Cc knh truyn ti n lm pht................................................................................ 18
Hnh 1A. S liu di dng log, 2001-2010 ............................................................................ 26
Danh mc bng
Bng 1A. Kt qu m hnh VECM m rng ........................................................................... 27
Gii thiu
Trong bi cnh bt n v m vn tip tc tch ly v c du hiu bng pht vo nhng
thng u nm 2011, lm pht tr thnh mt trong bn vn gay gt nht lin quan n bnh
n v m (cng vi qun l t gi, thm ht thng mi v thm ht ngn sch).
Tuy nhin, nu nhn li ton cnh qu trnh ci cch kinh t ca Vit Nam trong hn hai
thp k qua, th lm pht, c bit l cc nhn t quyt nh lm pht v nhng bin ng ca
lm pht l mt trong nhng ch c tho lun nhiu nht Vit Nam. Nguyn nhn ca
iu ny rt r rng, v lm pht lun l mt trong nhng vn dai dng gy nhc nhi
nht, lm tn thng nht i vi nn kinh t Vit Nam. Vit Nam tri qua giai on siu
lm pht trong nhng nm 1980 v u nhng nm 1990 ngay khi bt u nhng ci cch
kinh t u tin. Ngoi tr giai on 2000-2003 khi lm pht thp v n nh mc 5% tr
xung, t l lm pht Vit Nam thng xuyn cao hn, lm pht ko di lu hn v dao
ng mnh hn so vi lm pht cc nc lng ging. Hiu r cc nguyn nhn v hu qu
ca nhng vn ny c ngha quan trng i vi vic nh gi tc ng ca cc chnh
sch v m i vi nn kinh t.
Nhng s kin gn y nh vic Vit Nam gia nhp WTO, lung vn nc ngoi t
ngt chy mnh vo Vit Nam trong hai nm 2007-2008, cc vn ca th trng ngoi hi
Vit Nam trong hai nm 2009 v 2010 v cuc khng hong kinh t th gii cng nh nguy
c lm pht tng mnh tr li t ra nhiu thch thc mi cho vic qun l kinh t v m
v c bit trong vic kim sot lm pht Vit Nam. Hng lot nhng thay i trong mi
trng v m v chnh sch kinh t trong nhng nm va qua t ra yu cn cn c mt
cch tip cn h thng v ton din nhm xc nh nhng nhn t v m quyt nh lm pht
trong bi cnh mi ca Vit Nam.
Trong nghin cu ny, chng ti s dng phng php tip cn da trn cc phn tch
nh lng nhm xc nh v tm hiu nhng nguyn nhn c bn ca lm pht Vit Nam
trong mt thp k gn y, t nm 2000 n 2010. Nhng nghin cu c v lm pht
Vit Nam tp trung ch yu vo cc nhn t cu ko ca lm pht v b qua cc nhn t
chi ph y. Nhn t duy nht t pha cung c a vo cc nghin cu ny l gi quc t
(thng c coi l c sc cung t bn ngoi). ng thi, mt nhn t quan trng t pha cu
cha c nghin cu (nh lng) l vai tr ca thm ht ngn sch v n cng n lm
pht. Nghin cu ny hi vng s em n cho nhng tho lun chnh sch hin nay Vit
Nam mt nghin cu v m ng tin cy vi phng php mang tnh khoa hc v da vo
4
cc bng chng thc nghim v cc nguyn nhn ca lm pht. V kim sot lm pht l mt
trong nhng mi quan tm hng u trong chnh sch kinh t v m ca nm nay v nm ti,
nghin cu hi vng s lm r cc vn lin quan n lm pht v ng gp vo qu trnh
xy dng chnh sch.
Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam v nhng bin ng ca lm pht trong giai
on 2000-2010
Tng quan kinh t Vit Nam , 2000-2010
Tng trng kinh t
Trong thp k u tin ca th k XXI, Vit Nam chng kin mt giai on tng trng
kinh t c tc chng li so vi thp nin trc . Vo cui thp nin 1990, tng trng
kinh t ca Vit Nam chm li v nhng du hiu do d trong tin trnh ci cch kinh t xut
hin t nm 1996 v nhng nh hng lan truyn tiu cc t cuc khng hong ti chnh
Chu 1997. Hu qu ca tnh trng ny l nn kinh t tri qua mt giai on suy gim tc
tng trng i lin vi hin tng gim pht trong nhng nm 1999-2001 (xem Hnh 1).
Hnh 1. Tng trng kinh t v lm pht, 1995-2009
25
20
15
10
5
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
0
-5
Nm
Tng trng GDP
Lm pht
Trc tnh hnh , mt k hoch kch thch kinh t thng qua ni lng tn dng v m
rng u t nh nc bt u c thc hin t nm 2000. Vic duy tr chnh sch kch thch
5
% GDP
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-10
-15
Nm
Tng thu
Tng chi NS
Thng mi quc t v t gi
Thng mi quc t l mt lnh vc c bit pht trin ca Vit Nam trong giai on
hin nay. Vit Nam ngy cng hi nhp su, rng vo nn kinh t ton cu, vi nhng hip
nh thng mi t do song phng c k kt, ng thi tham gia vo cc t chc a bin,
trong phi k ti vic gia nhp T chc Thng mi Th gii. Tuy nhin, cn phi tha
nhn rng vic hi nhp su va mang li cho Vit Nam nhiu c hi, ng thi cng buc
t nc phi i din vi nhiu thch thc mi. c im ng lu l k t nm 2002, cn
cn vng lai tr li tnh trng thm ht m nguyn nhn ch yu bt ngun t thm ht
thng mi mc d dng kiu hi chy v trong nc v cc dng vn chy vo Vit Nam
bt u gia tng n nh v gip cn i phn no cn cn vng lai. Khi cc dng vn c du
hiu chng li do cuc khng hong kinh t th gii n ra vo nm 2008, th thm ht vng
lai li khng c khuynh hng thu hp. Kt qu l, Vit Nam buc phi gim mnh d tr
ngoi hi b p cho phn ngoi t b thiu ht.
Hnh 3. Thm ht cn cn vng lai v d tr ngoi hi, 2000-2009
6
4
2
0
-2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Thm ht vng lai (% GDP)
Thm ht vng lai lin tc, i cng vi mc lm pht cao trong nc, khin t gi thc t
ca VND so vi USD trong nhng nm gn y gim mnh mc d t gi danh ngha c xu
hng tng ln r rt, v khong cch gia hai t gi ngy cng m rng, c bit l hai nm
2008 v 2009 (xem Hnh 4). Nu ly nm 2000 lm gc th ng Vit Nam ln gi thc t
xp x 38%. iu ny hn gp phn khin thm ht thng mi ca Vit Nam tr nn trm
trng t sau nm 2003.
Tng trng t mc cao so vi khu vc, nhng ang c khuynh hng chm li;
ng thi, tng trng vn l thuc nhiu vo m rng u t.
Ngn sch thm ht trin min, i lin vi thm ht thng mi (thm ht kp);
Chnh sch t gi neo mt cch linh hot (crawling peg) vo ng USD, nhng c
khuynh hng nh gi cao ng ni t.
10
Hnh 6 cho thy t nm 2004, Vit Nam v ang tri qua giai on lm pht cao hn,
dao ng ln hn v ko di hn so vi cc i tc thng mi ca mnh.
Cuc khng hong kinh t th gii 2008-2009 gp phn lm gim lm pht Vit
Nam t cui nm 2009. Gi quc t gim cng vi tng cu gim gip Vit Nam o
ngc xu th gia tng ng ngi ca lm pht trong nm 2008. Khi cc gi kch cu ca
Chnh ph bt u gia tng t qu II nm 2009, cung tin cng bt u tng mnh v tn dng
cng c du hiu tng t. Cc ngn hng thng mi tr nn thiu ht tin mt v u c
gng tng li sut nhm thu ht tin gi. V vy, cuc cnh tranh li sut bt u khin cho
li sut cho vay b y ln cao (vt trn li sut do cc khon ph cho vay).
Trong nm 2010, do dp Tt nguyn n v vic tng gi in, lm pht trong hai thng
u nm tng cao. Nm thng tip theo ca nm 2010 chng kin t l lm pht tng i n
nh mc thp chng t cc bin php kim sot lm pht ca Chnh ph c tc ng.
Tuy nhin, lm pht li tng tr li mnh m t thng 9 nm 2010 khin cho ch s gi tiu
dng CPI cho 11 thng tng ln n 9,58% so vi 20,71% v 5,07% ca cng k nm
2008 v 2009. Vic ph gi VND so vi USD trong thng 8 nm 2010 v bin ng ca th
trng vng trong nc v quc t va qua c coi l mt vi trong s nhng nguyn nhn
ch yu khin cho lm pht tng cao lc ny.
Vit Nam vn c nhng nguy c tim tng khin cho lm pht c th vn tip tc tng
cao: (i) gi ca mt lot cc mt hng c bn nh in v xng du vn b kim sot; (ii)
VND vn ang chu p lc mt gi d NHNN ph gi 2 ln trong nm 2010; (iii) gi c
Trung Quc cng ang tng ln khin cho chi ph nhp khu cho cc cng trnh c s h tng
11
vi nguyn liu nhp khu ch yu Trung Quc cng tng ln v (iv) p lc mi lng tin
t s gia tng v li sut hin gi ang cao. Mt phn nhng nguy c ny tr thnh hin
thc trong nhng thng va qua ca nm 2010.
Tc ng bt li ca lm pht i vi ngho i v tng trng c nhiu tc gi
bn n. Lm pht lm tng bt bnh ng v thu nhp v n ging nh mt th thu ly tin
i vi ngi ngho. Nu cc h ngho ch yu nm gi ti sn ca mnh di dng tin mt
hay cng lm l tin gi ngn hng thay v cc loi ti sn ti chnh khc nh Vit Nam
hin nay th lm pht cao s nhanh chng lm gim sc mua ca h. Lm pht cao cng nh
hng n tng trng, lm nhiu cc tn hiu v gi c v hn ch cht lng cng nh khi
lng u t. ng thi n cng c th c tc ng tiu cc n tnh cnh tranh ca hng ha
xut khu ca mt nc do gi c sn xut trong nc tng cao v do t gi thc t tng ln.
(Easterly and Fischer, 2001).
Hnh 7. Lm pht hng nm (theo thng), 2000-2010 (%)
13
ng ni t.
Cch tip cn ny gi rng lm pht chu nh hng hoc gin tip t gi nhp khu
cao hn hoc trc tip t s gia tng ca cu trong nc. Phng trnh ny ngm rng t
gi ng vai tr nht nh trong vic quyt nh mc gi v mc chuyn t gi vo lm pht
cn phi c xem xt. S ph gi ng ni t c th trc tip tc ng ln gi trong nc
ca hng ha thng mi nhng cng c th gin tip tc ng vo mc gi chung nu cc
quyt nh v gi chu nh hng ca chi ph nhp khu. iu ny c bit ng i vi
nhng nc da vo vic nhp khu hng ha trung gian phc v sn xut v/hoc c hin
tng la ha cao nh Vit Nam.
Mt nghin cu in hnh gn y v cc nhn t quyt nh lm pht trong mt nn
kinh t nh v m thng s dng c ba cch tip cn. V d, Chhibber (1991), xy dng
m hnh lm pht l trung bnh gia quyn ca lm pht ca hng ha thng mi, lm pht
14
15
nhng thay i trong t gi hin ti logE. V do vy, ni cch khc, chng ta c th m hnh
gi hng ha thng mi theo lut PPP. V chng ti s gi n l knh tc ng ca gi hng
ha thng mi n lm pht.
(2)
Gi c hng ha phi thng mi kh m hnh ha hn v chng ta cn xem xt th trng
trong nc thy nhng thay i ca loi gi ny. Chng ti gi nh rng th trng hng
ha phi thng mi vn ng cng chiu vi th trng c nc. Khi , gi c hng ha phi
thng mi ph thuc v tng cu v tng cung.
V c bn, t pha cung, nhng thay i trong hng ha phi thng mi ph thuc vo
nhng thay i trong chi ph hng sn xut trung gian (c cc hng trung gian nhp khu v
sn xut trong nc) IC, chi ph lao ng (o bng tin lng W) v s n gi t pha cung
MUs c th do th trng khng hon ho gy ra. Nhng thay i trong gi c hng ha trung
gian nhp khu vn ng theo lut PPP trong phng trnh (2). Nhng yu t ny c th c
coi l cc nhn t chi ph y tc ng n lm pht trong nc.
V pha cu, tng cu ph thuc vo thu nhp Y, li sut r, ti sn, thu v tiu dng ca
Chnh ph. Nhng thay i trong cc nhn t ny c th gy ra d cu v nh hng n mc
gi v c th c coi l cc nhn t cu ko ca lm pht.
Cc nhn t t c pha cung ln pha cu c th gy ra nhng bin ng trong gi hng
ha phi thng mi v do nh hng n mc gi chung. Chng ta c th c th ha knh
phi thng mi nh sau:
(3)
S thay i trong mc n gi chung ph thuc vo s thay i trong mc n gi xut
pht t pha cung v mc d cu ca nn kinh t v bn thn d cu dn n lng tin
thc t d tha trong th trng tin t trong nc. Do vy, cung v cu v tin thc t cng
ng c nh hng n mc gi chung ca nn kinh t.
Bi vy ta c hm v lm pht nh sau (ch in thng l th hin cc bin c vit
di dng log).
(4)
trong lm pht trong qu kh c dng thay th cho k vng lm pht.
17
Cho trng hp ca Vit Nam, da trn nhng kin thc c c t vic kho st tnh
hnh bin ng ca lm pht Vit Nam trong phn 2 cng nh t vic xem xt s liu,
chng ti tin hnh mt s sa i so vi m hnh trong phng trnh (4). Trc tin, chng
ti phi b qua tin lng v chi ph u vo phi thng mi do thiu s liu ng tin cy.
Thay vo chng ti s dng ch s gi bn ca ngi sn xut PPI (producers price
index). Th hai, chng ti cng b qua gi kim sot. y cng l nhng sa i chung ca
cc nghin cu v lm pht Vit Nam. Tip theo, chng ti b sung vai tr ca thm ht
ngn sch thc t (mt bin thay th cho vic ti tr ngn sch qua vay n v tng cung tin)
do nhng bin ng ca bin ny c th lm thay i k vng lm pht v do vic nghin
cu mi quan h gia chng c th a n nhng pht hin th v. Ngoi ra, do gi ti sn
ti chnh (nh bt ng sn v chng khon) c chng minh l c tc ng n lm pht
thng qua hiu ng v ti sn, chng ti cng a bin ti sn (Wealth) o tc ng ca
thay i trong gi ti sn n lm pht vo m hnh.
Nhng thay i k trn so vi m hnh truyn thng v cc nhn t quyt nh lm pht
khin hm lm pht ca chng ta chuyn thnh:
(5)
Chng ta c th tm tt cc knh truyn ti n lm pht ca m hnh bng hnh v sau.
Hnh 8. Cc knh truyn ti n lm pht
Mc gi
Gi hng ha thng mi
Gi th gii
(gi du, go v
cc u vo nhp
khu khc)
T gi
Tng cung
Chi ph u vo
trong nc v nhp
khu, n gi pha
cung, t gi
S liu v cc kim nh
tin hnh c lng cc nhn t v m quyt nh lm pht Vit Nam, chng ti s
dng s liu th cp theo thng t thng 1 nm 2001 n thng 3 nm 2010. Nhng s liu
18
20
21
Ngay c khi chnh sch tht cht tin t c thc hin, th thng mt khong 5 thng
n mi pht huy tc dng ln lm pht. Nh vy, vo lc , lm pht cao c khong 7
n 8 thng. Qung thi gian ny to nn mt k c v lm pht v do vic kim
ch lm pht s kh khn hn.
Nghin cu cng ch ra rng trong cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t, tng li sut
thng c hiu ng tc thi ln lm pht, so vi d tr di hn ca chnh sch tht cht tn
dng v tin t. Tuy nhin, mc nh hng ca thay i li sut li kh nh. Kt qu l,
cng c tin t Vit Nam khng hon ton l mt cng c phn ng nhanh v hiu qu nh
vn tng.
Th nm, tri ngc vi nhng nghin cu c, kt qu ca chng ti cho thy t gi,
c th l vic ph gi, c tc ng ng k lm tng p lc lm pht. S khc bit trong kt
qu ny c th c gii thch mt phn l do cc nghin cu trc y ch yu nghin cu
trong cc giai on t gi c gi tng i cng nhc. Gn y, t cui nm 2008, NHNN
tin hnh ph gi nhiu hn v vi mc ln hn. Thm vo , nhng bin ng gn
y trn th trng ngoi hi, c bit l th trng t do, trong nm 2009 v 2010 do nim
tin ca vo tin ng b st gim, do hot ng u c v tnh trng la ha dn n k
vng v lm pht tr li ca ngi dn tng ln. iu ny c th khin cho tc ng ca t
gi i vi lm pht tng ln nh kt qu ca nghin cu ny cho thy.
Cui cng, nghin cu khng cho thy tc ng r rng ca thm ht ngn sch i vi
lm pht trong giai on nghin cu. iu ny khng c ngha l thm ht ngn sch khng
c nh hng n lm pht. Nguyn nhn ca iu ny l do vic ti tr ngn sch thng c
hai tc ng tri chiu. Mt mt, ti tr ngn sch bng vic gia tng vay n ca Chnh ph
lm tng li sut do nhu cu vay cao hn. iu ny cng tng t nh chnh sch tin t tht
cht v do gp phn gim phn no lm pht. Mt khc, ti tr ngn sch thng qua vic
tng cung tin (nu c) cng tng t nh chnh sch tin t m rng v gy p lc lm pht.
Hai tc ng tri chiu ny lm gim thm ch trit tiu ln nhau nh hng ca chng ln
lm pht.
T nhng c im trn ca lm pht Vit Nam, chng ta c th i ti mt hm quan
trng rng Chnh ph nn c nhng cam kt mnh m trong vic chng lm pht khng ch
khi lm pht ang cao, m cn phi c nhng cam kt duy tr lm pht thp ngay c khi lm
pht ang kh thp v n nh. V hnh ng sau c l quan trng khng km g hnh ng
trc. Tuy nhin, thc t cho thy chin lc ny ca Chnh ph thng rt kh c thc thi
22
v Chnh ph thng c khuynh hng u tin tng trng kinh t nhiu hn, v coi nh vic
gi cho mi trng v m c n nh.
Kt lun
Trong bo co ny, chng ti kho st nhng bin ng ca lm pht Vit Nam trong
thp k qua vi mi quan h cht ch n mt lot nhng thay i trong mi trng kinh t
cng nh trong cc chnh sch kinh t v m. ng thi, vic kho st cc nghin cu v cc
nhn t quyt nh lm pht ni chung v trng hp Vit Nam ni ring gip chng ti hnh
thnh mt danh sch cc nhn t v m tim nng c th quyt nh s bin ng ca lm
pht v a ra cc gi thuyt v mi quan h gia chng vi lm pht Vit Nam.
Nghin cu sau xem xt cc nhn t v m quyt nh lm pht Vit Nam trong giai
on 2000-2010. M hnh m chng ti s dng a ra ba knh truyn ti m qua mt lot
cc bin ni sinh v ngoi sinh c th nh hng n mc gi. Cc knh l knh ngang gi
sc mua (PPP), knh tng cu (AD) v knh tng cung (AS). Nhng kt qu ch yu ca
nghin cu bao gm: (1) qun tnh lm pht ca Vit Nam l cao v l mt nhn t quan
trng quyt nh lm pht ca Vit Nam trong hin ti; (2) tc iu chnh l rt thp trn
c th trng tin t v th trng ngoi hi, hm kim sot lm pht mt cch c hiu qu
l rt kh mt khi n bt u tng ln; (3) mc chuyn t gi vo lm pht l ng k
trong ngn hn vi vic ph gi dn n gi c tng ln trong khi thm ht ngn sch cng
dn khng c nh hng nhiu n lm pht; (4) cung tin vi li sut c tc ng n lm
pht nhng vi tr; v (5) mc chuyn trong ngn hn ca gi quc t n gi ni a cng
c vai tr nht nh.
Hn ch chnh ca nghin cu ny l vic s dng t gi chnh thc gia VND v USD
thay v t gi hu hiu gia VND v cc ng tin ca nhiu nc bn hng, do mi quan
h PPP khng c phn nh y do khng tnh n cc ng tin nc khc. Tuy nhin,
vic s dng t gi chnh thc cho php chng ti xc nh c tc ng ca lm pht ln t
gi cng nh sc p ln lm pht ca t gi chnh thc. Mt hn ch na l vic thiu s liu
v tin lng v hnh vi thit lp gi ca doanh nghip vi t cch l cc nhn t pha cung
c th nh hng n lm pht. Tuy nhin chng ti khng th thu thp c s liu ng
tin cy. Kt qu nghin cu ha hn s c nhiu kt qu hn nu thu thp c nhng s liu ny.
Do nghin cu ny ch yu tp trung vo cc nhn t v m quyt nh lm pht, n b
qua vai tr ca cc nhn t vi m nh cu trc ca tng th trng, v tr a l, loi hng
23
ha l nhng nhn t c th gip gii thch s bin ng mnh cng nh tnh trng ko di
ca lm pht. Vi nhng pht trin mi theo hng nay, hy vng chng ta s tm c nhiu
pht hin mi hn na v nguyn nhn lm pht Vit Nam.
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Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
Saini, K.G. (1982), The Monetarist Explanation of Inflation: the Experience of Six Asian
Countries, World Development, 10 (10): 871-84
Sargent, T. (1971), A Note on the Accelerationist Controversy, Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking, 3, 721-725
Taylor, J. (1979) Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model, American Economic Review,
Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 69, 108-133.
Truong Van Phuoc and Chu Hoang Long, Ch s gi tiu dng Vit Nam v cc yu t tc
ng: Phng php tip cn nh lng,
UNDP (2008), Food Inflation in Vietnam: Analysis of Trends and Policy Implications,
Research Paper
Vo Van Minh (2009), Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Its Implications for Inflation in
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25
Ph lc
PPI
11.2
10.8
EX_RATE
P_DEBT
5.3
9.85
11.6
5.2
9.80
11.2
9.75
10.8
9.70
10.4
9.65
10.0
9.60
9.6
5.1
5.0
10.4
4.9
4.8
10.0
4.7
9.6
4.6
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
01
02
03
04
CPI
05
06
07
08
09
9.55
10
9.2
01
02
03
04
M2
05
06
07
08
09
10
01
02
03
04
TR_VAL
5.4
14.5
15
5.2
14.0
14
5.0
13.5
13
4.8
13.0
12
4.6
12.5
11
05
06
07
08
09
10
06
07
08
09
10
07
08
09
10
PI
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.4
12.0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
4.6
10
01
02
03
04
CREDIT
05
06
07
08
09
10
4.5
01
02
03
04
IN_RATE
15.0
20
14.5
18
14.0
05
06
07
08
09
10
01
02
03
04
WP_OIL
05
WP_RICE
4.8
7.0
4.4
6.5
16
4.0
13.5
14
6.0
13.0
3.6
12
12.5
11.5
8
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
5.5
3.2
10
12.0
2.8
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
5.0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
01
02
03
04
05
06
26
D(IND)
D(PPI)
CointEq1(PPP)
D(CPI)
CointEq3(AS)
D(CPI(-1))
0.359712**
(0.15708)
0.233534***
(0.05848)
0.580655***
(0.16598)
-0.356607**
(0.16548)
0.117679*
(0.06179)
D(M2(-4))
D(M2(-5))
D(CREDIT(-1))
-1.318734*
(0.67163)
D(CPI(-6))
D(M2(-3))
D(CREDIT)
-0.038466*
(0.02210)
0.052330
(0.03959)
0.100670**
(0.04598)
CointEq2(AD)
D(CPI(-3))
D(M2)
0.595684*
(0.30658)
0.173791**
(0.07748)
0.090526**
(0.04503)
-0.333680*
(0.16911)
D(CREDIT(-5))
18.90321**
(7.81399)
D(CREDIT(-6))
D(IN_RATE(-1))
0.132456**
(0.05269)
-0.002385*
(0.00124)
-0.012570***
(0.00442)
-0.510377**
(0.21009)
27
D(IN_RATE(-2))
D(IN_RATE(-3))
-0.590047**
(0.25606)
-0.475447**
(0.21711)
-0.003263**
(0.00129)
D(IN_RATE(-6))
D(EX_RATE(-2))
D(EX_RATE(-3))
D(EX_RATE(-4))
0.501922**
(0.24322)
0.427214*
(0.24719)
D(EX_RATE(-5))
D(P_DEBT(-1))
0.243256*
(0.13446)
0.554607**
(0.25698)
1.501310***
(0.54747)
1.186950**
(0.47788)
1.579643*
(0.92829)
-0.172000*
(0.09795)
-1.730387*
(0.93141)
-0.374874**
(0.18394)
2.201279*
(1.23253)
0.104893***
(0.03291)
0.077215***
(0.02451)
D(P_DEBT(-2))
D(P_DEBT(-4))
D(P_DEBT(-6))
0.198223*
(0.10051)
-10.07349*
(5.34579)
0.302765**
(0.14970)
0.292792*
(0.15818)
-2.084422**
(1.01414)
D(PI(-2))
0.334365*
(0.19219)
D(PI(-3))
53.10642*
(30.9452)
D(PI(-5))
0.448763***
(0.12461)
-0.224043*
(0.12276)
D(PI(-6))
D(WP_OIL(-1))
D(WP_OIL(-6))
D(WP_RICE(-1))
-4.461876**
(2.25295)
-2.905588*
(1.67771)
-0.056626**
(0.02803)
0.048651**
(0.02286)
D(P_DEBT(-5))
D(PI(-1))
-0.020459**
(0.00905)
2.510492**
(0.98757)
0.576816*
(0.30575)
0.406398***
(0.13166)
-0.318403**
(0.12971)
0.022041***
(0.00798)
-0.033189*** -0.025790***
(0.00856)
(0.00905)
0.027654**
0.031817***
(0.01145)
(0.01210)
-17.91753*
(10.7630)
0.803692*
(0.46099)
3.265324***
(0.83158)
-0.084821*
(0.05114)
28
D(WP_RICE(-5))
0.020458*
(0.01040)
6.346063*** 0.061186***
(1.75461)
(0.01241)
6.008803**
(2.53380)
D(WP_RICE(-6))
C
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic
Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent
-0.010456***
(0.00328)
0.894540
0.612056
0.234374
0.091490
3.166700
169.3823
-1.795813
0.136626
0.010744
0.146890
0.959219
0.849984
0.000184
0.002562
8.781220
541.2247
-8.946628
-7.014189
0.005861
0.006615
0.954655
0.833195
0.000205
0.002707
7.859852
535.4973
-8.836487
-6.904048
0.007003
0.006628
0.836773
0.399559
0.002592
0.009622
1.913873
403.6136
-6.300262
-4.367823
0.020402
0.012417
0.791742
0.233908
0.004570
0.012775
1.419314
374.1320
-5.733308
-3.800869
0.023961
0.014595
0.896152
0.617989
5.845999
0.456931
3.221676
2.119327
1.420782
3.353222
0.042680
0.739286
0.906174
0.654855
0.000293
0.003233
3.605666
517.0477
-8.481686
-6.549247
0.002109
0.005502
0.930560
0.744559
0.008435
0.017356
5.002998
342.2585
-5.120356
-3.187917
0.018092
0.034341
0.856030
0.470395
1.371299
0.221303
2.219796
77.51928
-0.029217
1.903223
0.023304
0.304096
29