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3.1. Metode cantitative de previziune

3.2. Metode calitative de previziune
3.3. 6FHQDULLOHFDPHWRG GHSURJQR]

Prognoza = HYDOXDUHD SUREDELO  VWDELOLW  vQ PRG WLLQ LILF D HYROX LHL FDOLWDWLYH L
cantitative a unui domeniu ntr-un interval de timp (numit orizontul prognozei L VWDELOLUHD
HYROX LLORU L VW
IDFH ID

ULORU SRVLELOH DOH GRPHQLXOXLSUHFXPLSUREDELOLW

 vQ PRG LQWHOLJHQW L HILFLHQW VFKLPE

LOH DVRFLDWHORUFXVFRSXO GHD

ULORU H[LVWHQWH L D FHORU SUHYL]LELOH GH D SHUPLWH

DSUHFLHUHDFRQVHFLQ HORUGHYLLWRUDOHGHFL]LLORUOXDWHDFXP

SURJQR] WHKQRORJLF

FHD FDUHVHRFXS GHHYROX LDWHKQRORJLLORULDSURGXVHORULGHIDSW

FHDFDUHQHYDLQWHUHVDSHQRLLGHFDUHQHYRPRFXSDvQFHOHFHXUPHD] 

SURJQR] HFRQRPLF

SURJQR] VRFLDO

$XGLVS

UXWFXWRWXO

rigla de calcul
tablele de logaritmi
motorul de avion cu elice a fost practic total nlocuit n transportul aviatic civil de cel cu
UHDF LH

tuburile electronice cu vid

ceasurile cu arc
OHPQXOGLQUDFKHWHOHGHWHQLVGLQVFKLXULGLQSU MLQDGHODDWOHWLVP
8OWLPD YHQLW  FDUH DU SXWHD L HD vQ Fk LYD DQL V  UHYROX LRQH]H XQD VDX FKLDU GRX  UDPXUL

LQGXVWULDOH HVWH EXWHOLD VWLFOD GH 3(7 FDUH R vQORFXLHWH SH FHD GH VWLFO  OD S VWUDUHD E XWXULORU
ILLQGFRQVLGHUDELOPDLXRDU LPDLUH]LVWHQW ODRFXUL

Caracteristicile prognozelor:
Orizontul de timp;
Gradul de detaliere;

1DWXUDGHFL]LHLFHWUHEXLHOXDW SHED]DVWXGLXOXL

6WDELOLWDWHDVLVWHPXOXLOHJHDGHHYROX LHDVLVWHPXOXLWLSXOGHPRGHO

Costul LPSOLFDWGHDFWLYLWDWHDGHSURJQR]
costul de punere a punct a metodei;

FRVWXULOHGHDFWXDOL]DUHDPHWRGHLLDGDWHORU

FRVWXULOHGHUHDOL]DUHSURSULX]LV DSURJQR]HL

costurile de comparare a rezultatelor cu cele ale altor metode.

Precizia

8XULQ DGHDSOLFDUH

&HD PDL LPSRUWDQW  FODVLILFDUH D WHKQLFLORU GH SURJQR]  HVWH FHD FDUH OH vPSDUWH vQ WHKQLFL

cantitativeLcalitative.

 3.1. Metode cantitative de previziune

3HQWUX D UHDOL]D R SURJQR]  FDQWLWDWLY  WUHEXLH V  GLVSXQHPGHXQQXP UGH YDORULP VXUDWH
FXOHVHODPRPHQWHGLIHULWHGLQWUHFXW2E LQHPDVWIHOLUXO;W3HED]DYDORULORU;LFXLGHODOD

t (t fiind momentul prezent) putem calcula valorile estimate pentru perioada (sau, uneori,
SHULRDGHOH XUP WRDUH 6W 6WQ 3UH]HQW P vQ ILJ  -  VFKHPD GH FRUHVSRQGHQ  D
variabilelor.

Valorile
Perioada

X(1)
1

Fig. 3.1. -9DORULOHP

V a l RULP VXUDWH9DORULSURJQR]DWH
X(2) X(3) .....
X(t-1) X(t)
S(t+1) S(t+2) S(t+3)
2
3
.....
t-1
t
t+1
t+2
t+3

momentul actual

VXUDWHYDORULOHSURJQR]DWHLWLPSXO

S(t+1) = F [ x(1), x(2), ....., x(t)]

(URDUHDFDOFXODW FkQGHYHQLPHQWXOV

-a produs) : e(t+1) = S(t+1) - x (t+1)

3.1.1. Tehnicile de regresie.

0HWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH

y = f(t)

astfel nct:

[y(t) - x(t)]2 = minim

Pentru dreapta: y = a + b t
a = [( X) - b ( t)] / n
b = [n ( X.t ) - ( X)( t) ] / [n ( t2 ) - ( t)2 ]
y = a + b t + c t2 + d t3 + .....

Pentru plinomiala:

FRHILFLHQ LLDEFGVHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOXQRUUHOD LLVLPLODUHFHORUGHPDLVXV

3HQWUXDOWHIXQF LLVHIDFHR

linearizare. Exemple:

y = a ebt (logaritmare) ln y = ln a + b t similar cu y' = a' + bt ;

y= a+b/x

(x' = 1 / x) y = a + b x'

$OHJHUHDIXQF LHLRSWLPH

Criteriul lui Gauss.

,QGLFHOHGHFRQFRUGDQ
IXQF LDDOHDV 

vQWUHPXO LPHDSXQFWHORU;WLQWURGXVHLD

punctelor Y(t) calculate cu

0HWRGHGHSURJQR]

SULQILOWUDMDGDSWLY

Metoda mediilor mobile:

S(t+1) = [X(t) + X(t-1) + ...... + X(t -n +1)] / n
0HWRGDQHWH]LULLH[SRQHQ LDOH

S(t+1) = x(t) + (1-) x(t-1) + (1-)2 x(t-2) + (1-)3 x(t-3) + ......

[ 0<<1]

XQGHHVWHXQFRHILFLHQWFXYDORULFXSULQVHvQWUHL2YDORDUHPDUHSHQWUXDOIDYDP ULSRQGHUHD
XOWLPHORUGDWHLDURYDORDUHPLF YDIDFHGLQFRQWU FDWRWLUXO[LV LQWHUYLQ vQPRGDSURDSHHJDO

n estimarea lui S.
Cazul general:
S(t+1) = W(t) X(t) + W (t-1) X(t-1) + ......
Pentru a-l calcula pe W(i): metoda filtrajului adaptiv PHWRG

LWHUDWLY 

set X(i) Calcul S(t+1) 3URJQR] SWXQWLPSGHMDWUHFXW

Reglare pondere W(i) (URDUHDFRQVWDWDW

Sistemul real X(t+1)

Fig.3.1. -6FKHPDGHSULQFLSLXDFDOFXOXOXLFRHILFLHQ LORUW(i).
([HPSOX& XW P

S(21) = W(20) X(20) + W(19) X(19) +.........+ W(16) X(16) [ W(i ) = necunoscute ]
Pornind mai nti de la calculul lui S(6), pe baza lui X(1)....X(5), lund pentru W(i):
W(1) = W(2) = ..... = W(5) = 1 / 5 o S(6) X(6) "coeficient de adaptare", k. .....

3.2. Metode calitative de previziune

Metodele calitative de previziune au o serie de caracteristici proprii, ntre care:

GH UHJXO  IDF DSHO OD H[SHU L SHUVRDQH FDUH FXQRVF IRDUWH ELQH GRPHQLXO L FDUH DX XQ DQXPH
IOHUFHOHSHUPLWHV VLPW FXPYRUHYROXDOXFUXULOH

UH]XOWDWXO SURJQR]HORU QX HVWH R YDORDUH QXPHULF  VDX R GHVFULHUH GHWDOLDW  D QRLL VLWXD LL FL R

conturare a WHQGLQ HORU L D OLPLWHORU vQ FDUH YD HYROXD VLVWHPXO VWXGLDW $&ODUNH vQ 3URILOHV
on the future", Harper & Row, N.Y., 1962) :"3URJQR]D QX vQFHDUF V  GHVFULH YLLWRUXO FL V 
GHILQHDVF  OLPLWHOH vQWUH FDUH VH YRU DH]D GLYHULL viitori posibili  'DF  YRm considera
SHULRDGD GLQ ID D QRDVWU  FD R UHJLXQH QHFXQRVFXW  F UHLD QLPHQL QX L-D ULGLFDW YUHR KDUW 
SULQ SURJQR]

 QRL vL GHOLPLW

LQWHULRUXOXLYDILGHVFULV

P IURQWLHUHOH L QH IDFHP R LGHH GHVSUH vQWLQGHUHD VD *HRJUDILD

GRDUGXS

FHS

WUXQGHPDFROR

.".

3.2.1. Metoda curbelor logistice

Fig.3.2.-(YROX LDXQHLWHKQRORJLLGXSDRFXUE
y = p / (1 +a e-bx) unde:

ORJLVWLF

p = plafonul; a,b = parametrii.

'HPRQVWUD LH 3HQWUX SHULRDGD LQL LDO  VH SRDWH DGPLWH F  FUHWHUHD YD IL SURSRU LRQDO  FX

nivelul atins, deci:

dy / dt = k.y(t)
9DORDUHDOXLNYDULD] SHP VXU FHQHDSURSLHPGHSILHE

N

- y(t) / p)

dy / dt = k ( 1 - y / p) y
ceea ce prin separarea variabileloULLQWHJUDUHQHG
DGLF H[DFWHFXD LDORJLVWLFLLFXD

\W

- 1) e-bx ]

S>S\

S\R XQGH\RHVWHYDORDUHDLQL LDO DOXL\

Tab. 2.2.-1 Caracteristicile economice ale diferitelor tipuri de procese tehnologice

Tehnologii emergente
&XPS cu venituri mari
U

evolutive

mature

n declin

WRWPDLPXO L

FRQVXPGHPDV

U PkQFHLILGHOL

FDOLWDWHPHGLRFU 

GLIHUHQ LHULPDUL

FDOLWDWHIRDUWHEXQ 

calitate mai

OLSV VWDQGDUGH

GXS ILUP 

norme respectate de

VODE GHFkWD

PRGLILF ULIUHFYHQWH

ILDELOLWDWHEXQ

WR L

noilor produse

WRUL

Produs

DS UXWH

Riscuri
fabricant
Profituri
Concu-

nalte

mici
cteva firme

Vnzare

certitudinea

FUHWHUH

curnd.

serii scurte, costuri

mari

mari
multe firme, dar
este loc pt. toate
subcapacitate,
serii mari

UHFODP IVXV LQXW

vQFUHWHUH

UHQ
)DEULFD LH

minime, acoperite mici

de cererea n

PDUFDW

GLVSDUL LHLvQ

f. mari

vQVF GHUH

DFHUE SULQSUH XUL

vQVF GHUH

RSWLPL]DW FRVWXUL

supra-capacitate

minime
segmen-WDUHSLD

UHGXFHUHSLD

Fig. 3.2. -  (YROX LD vQ WLPS D

familiilor posednd produse din
domeniul electro - PHQDMHU vQ )UDQ D
1985.


PDLQLGHVS ODWUXIH



PDLQLGHVS ODWYDVH

Fig. 3.2. -  6LWXDUHD SH ORJLVWLF

FXPLFURXQGHvQGLYHUVH

Fig..3.2. -

 D FXSWRDUHORU

ULvQDQXO

 (YROX LD GLIHULWHORU

PDVH SODVWLFH SULQ SULVPD VLWX ULL ORU SH

ORJLVWLF vQ

Fig.3.2.-6XFFHVLXQHDXQRUWHKQRORJLLvQGRX
HYROX LHDGRPHQLXOXLWHKQRORJLF

YDULDQWH$%GH

Fig. 3.2.-6 Efectele

economice ale unei
noi tehnologii

6SD LXOWUDQVIHUXULORUGHWHKQRORJLH

3URJQR]DH[SORUDWLY

Nivelul tehnologic:
Treapta 1: 5HVXUVHWLLQ LILFH.
Treapta 2: Resurse tehnologice.
Treapta 3: Tehnologii elementare.
Treapta 4: Sisteme tehnologice.
NivelulFRQVHFLQ HORU:
Treapta 5: Aplicatii.
Treapta 6: Mediul ambiant.
Treapta 7: Sistem social
Treapta 8: Societatea.
3URJQR]DQRUPDWLY

prognoz
explorativ

8
7
6 prognoz
5
4 normativ
3
2
1
alte ramuri
industriale

alte firme
alte ri

Prognoza normativ :
8. Obiective globale
7. Obiective naionale
6. Misiuni
5. Sarcini de ndeplinit
4. Uzine noi
3. Tehnologii noi
2. Cereri de brevete
1. Contracte de cercetare

0HWRGDDUERULORUGHSHUWLQHQ

PrognozD QRUPDWLY

 VH WUDQVSXQH vQ SUDFWLF  GH UHJXO  SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO XQHL PHWRGH FDUH

SRDUW QXPHOHGHPHWRGDDUERULORUGHSHUWLQHQ
0HWRGD DUERULORU GH SHUWLQHQ

sistemul n mai multe nivele n cadrulF



 LQWURGXFH HOHPHQWH GH WHRULD JUDIXULORU GHVFRPSXQkQG

URUDWRDWHSUREOHPHOHDXHJDO LPSRUWDQ

'XS  FH DUERUHOH D IRVW FRQVWUXLW SDVXOXUP WRU vL SURSXQH V  VWDELOHDVF  RUGLQHD GH
UH]ROYDUH D SUREOHPHORU FULWHULXO RS LXQLL ILLQG P

VXUD SHUWLQHQ HL QRGXULORU, anume aportul pe

care rezolvarea nodului l aduce la rezolvarea unui obiectiv de la nivelul imediat superior.
([HPSOX F  GRULP V  UH]ROY P SUREOHPD PRWRUXOXL SHQWUX XQ DYLRQ GH WUDQVSRUW ORQJcourier Problemele pe care le ntlnim la nivelul imediat inferior sunt turbina, compresorul,
giroscRSXOLVLVWHPXOGHFLUFXOD LHDJD]HORU

Tab.3.2. -&DOFXOXOSHUWLQHQ HLSUREOHPHORUGHUH]ROYDWGHODQLYHOXOi + 1.

putere
Criteriul :
Pondere :
7XUELQ

Compresor
Giroscop
&LUFXOD LH

0,4
0,25
0,25
0
0,5

PDV

0,3
0,4
0,4
0
0,2

manevrabilitate

cost

0,1
0
0
0,8
0,2

0,2
0,2
0,3
0,25
0,25

SHUWLQHQ

0,26
0,28
0,13
0,33

gaze
0HWRGDFXUEHORUGHVXEVWLWX LHLGHSURJUHVWHKQLF
&XUEHGHVXEVWLWX LH

Fig. 3.2. -9DULD LDFRVWXULORUGHIDEULFD LHSHQWUXIHUHVWUHOHFXWkPSO ULHGLQOHPQLGLQ39&

(2) [curba a]UHVSHFWLYSHQWUXF ]LOHGHEDLHGLQIRQW LGLQSODVWLFHFRPSR]LWH
[curba b]

fig. 3.2 - 8. Ponderea maselor plastice n structura

unei aeronave.
(1) Helicoptere militare;
DYLRDQHGHYkQ WRDUH

(3) avioane civile.

&XUEHOH 

L 

 

"indicatori de avans

tehnologic".

3.2.5. Metoda Delphi

&RQVWLWXLUHDXQXLJUXSGHH[SHU L

(circa 100 ).

2. Elaborarea unui chestionar.

$QDOL]DU
6HDOF

VSXQVXULORU

WXLHWH XQDOGRLOHDFKHVWLRQDUFXDFHOHDLvQWUHE ULSUHFL]kQGWRWRGDW 

care este

YDORDUHDPHGLHDSURJQR]HLUH]XOWDW GLQSULPXOFKHVWLRQDULFDUHHVWHLQWHUYDOXOLQWHUTXDUWLOvQFDUH
VHVLWXHD] GLQU VSXQVXUL

Fig. 3.2. -9DULD LDLQWHUYDOXOXLLQWHUTXDUWLOSHP

VXU FHvQDLQWHD] DQFKHWD'HOSKL>JUDILFXO

a@L

JUDILFDQRUPDODOXQXLU VSXQVODRDQFKHW 'HOSKL>JUDILFXO

b].

([SOLFD LLSHQWUX

b:

vQGRPHQLXOUHVSHFWLYH[LVW GRX FROLILHFDUHFXS UHUHDHL

vQWUHEDUHDDIRVWU XSXV HVWHQHFODU 

H[SHU LL DX SRUQLW OD IRUPXODUHD U VSXQVXOXL GH OD SUHPL]H WRWDO GLIHULWH ,Q DFHVW FD] HVWH
LQWHUHVDQWGHGHWDOLDWSRDWHDSDUHYUHRLGHHQRX EXQ GHH[SORDWDW
0HWRGD6221YDULDQW '(/3+,$QFKHWDVHFRQWLQX FXWULPLWHUHDXQXLQRXFKHVWLRQDUvQ

care se cere prHFL]DUHDVHFYHQ HLHWDSHORUWHKQRORJLFHFDUHQXVXQWvQF

SXVHODSXQFW6HFHUHLRD

GRXDOLVW FXSURGXVHOHFHDUSXWHDILRE LQXWHvQXUPDUXSWXULLWHKQRORJLFHFHUkQGSHQWUXILHFDUHGLQ

ele:

LQGLFHOHGHGHVLUDELOLWDWHFkWDUILGHXWLOLFHIRORV

LQGLFHOHGHIH]DELOLWDWHFkWGHXRUL DUILILUPHLV vOUHDOL]H]H

R SUHYL]LXQH D WLPSXOXL SkQ  OD UHDOL]DUHD UXSWXULL WHKQRORJLFH FX SUHFL]DUHD SUREDELOLW

ar aduce firmei)

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VWUXFWXUDWLQRWDWGHF WUHH[SHU L



 3.3. 6FHQDULLOHFDPHWRG

GHSURJQR]

Un scenariu HVWH R SUHYL]LXQH FDUH VH HODERUHD]

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ULL VDX QHUHDOL]

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(de exemplu urbanizarea unei regiuni, productivitatea muncii ntr-R UDPXU

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 FDUH DX FRQGXV OD DSDUL LD
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actorii

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revenind spre timpul prezent.

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hiar politici);

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tehnologicului);

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e rapide;

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Fig. 3.3. - 1. Utilizarea scenariilor pentru stabilirea politicii firmei.

&RQVWUXF LDXQXLVFHQDULX

1. CONSTRUIREA BAZEI

2. ELABORARE SCENARIU

3. ELABORARE PROGNOZE

4. DEFINIRE STRATEGII

5. ALEG(5(175(23

,81,675$7(*,&(

Fig. 3.3. - 2. Principalele etape ale construirii unui scenariu.

&RQVWUXF LDED]HL
&RQGL LL

V ILHGHWDOLDW
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ehnologici, economici, politici, sociologici, de

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V ILHGLQDPLF

 OXkQGvQFRQVLGHUD LHDWkWIDFWRULLGLQWUHFXWFDUHDX FRQGXVODVLWXD LD GHD]L

FkWLHOHPHQWHOHFDUHYRUDYHDRLQIOXHQ

V  ILH

explicativ

QRWDELO GHDFXPvQFROR

 V  SUH]LQWH vQ PRG OLPSHGH FX DUJXPHQWH MXVWLILFDWLYH WRDWH DILUPD LLOH

I FXWH&RQVWUXF LDED]HLFRPSRUW ODUkQGXOHLPDLPXO LSDLDQXPHGHOLPLWDUHDVLVWHPXOXL

GHWHUPLQDUHD YDULDELOHORU HVHQ LDOH L GHWHUPLQDUHD VWUDWHJLHL DFWRULORU WUHFXW  SUH]HQW  L
SUREDELO SHQWUXYLLWRU

Delimitarea sistemului LPSOLF  PDL vQWkL VWDELOLUHD OLPLWHORU VLVWHPXOXL GH VWXGLDW
Determinarea variabilelor. WUHEXLHI FXW ROLVW FRPSOHW DYDULDELOHORUFDUHWUHEXLHV FRQ LQ 
variabilele interne, cele care caraFWHUL]HD] GRPHQLXOQRVWUX

YDULDELOHOH H[WHUQH FHOH FH DSDU LQ HQYLURQPHQWXOXL H[SOLFDWLY L FDUH SRW LQIOXHQ D

comportarea domeniului interesant pentru noi;

GHWHUPLQDQ LL YDULDELOHOH DWkW LQWHUQH FkW L H[WHUQH FX FHD PDL PDUH LQIOXHQ

evolX LHLSUH]HQWHLYLLWRDUH

 DVXSUD

VHPQDOHOH VODEH DFHOH YDULDELOH FDUH VH PDQLIHVW  H[WUHP GH GLVFUHW SH PRPHQW GDU FDUH YRU
DYHDRHYROX LHSXWHUQLF GHYHQLQGODXQPRPHQWGDWGHWHUPLQDQ L

YDULDELOHOHGHULYDWHFHOHFHHYROXHD] FDXUPDUHDDF LXQLLGHWHUPLQDQ LORU

2DOW FODVLILFDUHPDLDSURSLDW GHWHRULDVLVWHPHORUGLVWLQJHYDULDELOH

explicative ( variabile independente comandabile),

de releu (intermediare),
autonome (independente necomandabile),

UH]XOWDQWHGHLHLUH

/LVWD YDULDELOHORU VH IDFH DSHOkQG OD FRQVXOWDUHD VSHFLDOLWLORU EUDLQVWRUPLQJ VDX OLVWH GH
vQWUHE UL FKHFN

-list),. Pornind de la trecut spre prezent (retrospectiva) se pot separa elementele

aleatorii de moment (ale prezentului) de tHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  LQYDULDQ LL GHWHUPLQDQ L 'H DVHPHQHD
se pot identifica germenii de schimbare, semnalele slabe.
Strategia actorilor. 7UHEXLH LQXWVHDPDGHIDSWXOF GLIHUL LLDFWRULQXDXLQWHUHVHLGHQWLFHL
nici strategii convergente.Deci vor treEXL VWDELOLWH VWUDWHJLLOH DFHVWRUD UDSRUWXULOH GH IRU H GLQWUH HL
LHYHQWXDOHOHPHQWHOHFDUHSRWGHWHUPLQDHYROX LDvQYLLWRUDUDSRUWXULORUGHIRU H9RUUH]XOWDDVWIHO
VHQVXOLW ULDIRU HORUUH]XOWDQWHFHOHFDUHGHWHUPLQ vQIRQGHYROX LDVLVWHPXOXL

&RQVWUXF LDVFHQDULXOXL

Pentru n ipoteze vor rezulta 2n scenarii posibile !

1.
2.
3.

4.

/LVW

PFHOHQLSRWH]H

(VWLP

PSHQWUXILHFDUHSUREDELOLWDWHDEUXW

FHDLQL LDO 

(VWLP PSUREDELOLW
LOHFRQGL LRQDWH prin PHWRGDPDWULFHLGHLPSDFWvQFUXFLDW (cross impact
matrice):
p (i / j) = probabilitatea ca ipoteza i V VHFRQILUPHGDF VHFRQILUP LSRWH]Dj;
p (i / j ) = probabilitatea ca ipoteza i V VHFRQILUPHGDF LSRWH]Dj QXVHFRQILXUP 
1RUPDOL]

PGDWHOHDVWIHOvQFkW

0 p(i) 1
p(i/j) . p(i) = p(j/i). p(j) = p(i,j)
SLSMGHRDUHFHSLLSMQXVXQWLQGHSHQGHQWHvQWUHHOH
p(i/j).P(j) + p(i/ j ).p( j ) = p(i)
5. 3ULQ LWHUD LL VXFFHVLYH VH UHFDOFXOHD]  SL  SLM L  SL j ), folosind fie metoda Monte Carlo
DWHQ LHSLM

ILHPHWRGDODQ XULORU0DUNRY

6.

&DOFXODUHDSUREDELOLW

LORUGHUHDOL]DUHDVFHQDULLORU36

P(Sj) = p(i)
7.
8.

6HHOLPLQ YDULDQWHOHDEVXUGH

6HUHFDOXOHD] SHQWUXFHOHS VWUDWHYDORUL

XQGHNVHFDOFXOHD] DVWIHOvQFkW

P(Sj) = k.P(Sj)
P(Sj) = 1,

VXPDI FkQGX

-se pe scenariile logic viabile.

9. 8OWLPXOSDVFRQVW vQDordona scenariiOHvQRUGLQHDGHVFUHVF

WRDUHDOXL36MFDUHQHG GH

IDSWSUREDELOLWDWHDFDVFHQDULXOMV ILHFHOUHDO
3HQWUX D GHWHUPLQD LPSRUWDQ D ILHF UHL LSRWH]H VH IDFH R DQDOL]
FRHILFLHQ LLGHVHQVLELOLWDWHGHILQL LPDWHPDWLFSUL

 GH VHQVLELOLWDWH

calculnd

n:

C(i,j) = [ p"(i) . p(j) ] / [ p"(j) . p(i) ]

XQGH SL HVWH QRXD YDORDUH SH FDUH R LD SL  DGLF  QRXD SUREDELOLWDWH FD LSRWH]D L V  VH
vQGHSOLQHDVF  DWXQFL FvQG SUREDELOLWDWHD SM YDULD]  FX R YDORDU

pentru VHLDYDORLDUHDGHDGLF 

6H FRQVWUXLHWH DVWIHO R matrice de elasticitate
IDFWRUXO GH YDULD LH DO SUREDELOLW

e  L UHFLSURF &HO PDL IUHFYHQW

DOH F UHL VXPH vQ PRGXO SH OLQLL QH G 

LL GH YDULD LH D FHORUODOWH LSRWH]H GDF  LSRWH]D F UHLD vL DSDU LQH

6XPDSHFRORDQHDPDWULFHLQHG
GHYDULD LDFHORUOalte ipoteze.

OLQLDSUH]LQW RYDULD LHGHSUREDELOLWDWHHJDO FX

LSRWH]DF UHLDvLDSDU LQHFRORDQDHVWHLQIOXHQ DW

P VXUDvQFDUH

3.3.3. Elaborarea prognozelor

SURFHVVWXGLDWPHGLXvQFRQMXU

(variabile interne)

WRU

(variabile externe)

variabile - cheie

variabile motrice
variabile dependente

UHWURVSHFWLY

-PHFDQLVPHWHQGLQ
- actorii

D]L
H JHUPHQLLVFKLPE

ULORU
- proiectele actorilor

675$7(*,(352%$%,/

ipoteze probabiliste de realizare a scenariului

- HYROX LL
-GHVFULHUHIRUPDILQDO

STRATEGII ALTERNATIVE

SODQXULGHDF LXQH

Fig. 3.3. -6WDELOLUHDYDULDELOHORUVLVWHPXOXLLDSUREDELOLW LORUORUGHUHDOL]DUH

m
VLWXD LDODPRPHQWXOm + 1

VLWXD LDODPRPHQWXO

HYROX LHUXSWXUL

&kQGLGHFH"

HYROX LDSR]L LHLDFWRULORU

HYROX LDVLVWHPXOXL

FRQVHFLQ HDVXSUDHYROX LLORUSULQFLSDOHORUYDULDELOH

LQIRUPD LLFRPSOHPHQWDUH VLWXD LDODPRPHQWXO

m+1

Fig. 3.3. -&RQVWULUHDXQHLVHFYHQ HODODPRPHQWXOPODPRPHQWXOP

Descompunerea sistemului n subsisteme independente la momentul m

(YROX LDILHF

UXLVXEVLVWHPWHQGLQ HVWUDWHJLLLQYDULDQ LDPG

5HFRPSXQHUHDVLVWHPXOXLHYLGHQ LHUHFRQIOLFWHWHQGLQ HQRL

FRQVHFLQ HHYROX LHUXSWXUL

Fig. 3.3. -(YROX LDVXEVLVWHPHORUvQWUHPRPHQWHOHPLP

0RGXOvQFDUH6+(//LDGHFL]LLSHVHDPDVFHQDULLORUSRDWHILLOXVWUDWvQVFKHPDXUP WRDUH

Incertitudini

SCENARII

variabile cheie

beneficiu sperat

IXUHW EHQHILFLL

RISC intuitiv

RISC cuantificat

Obiective pe termen lung

STRATEGII

Criterii

Beneficii cerute

Beneficii posibile

GHFL]LHVWUDWHJLF

6FHQDULXSULYLQGHYROX LDXQXLDHURSRUWFLYLO

Ne intereseD] HYROX LDXQXLDHURSRUWFLYLOGDWSHXQLQWHUYDOGHWLPSGDW,SRWH]HOHGHOXFUX

vor fi:
1. 1XP UXOGHWXULWLFHIRORVHVFDHURSRUWXOODRUL]RQWXOGHWLPSGDWYDILGHPLQLPXP17
2. 1XP UXOPHGLXGHORFXULDODYLRDQHORUGHSDVDJHULYDILGHPLQLPXP&3
3. DatoULW DJORPHUD LHLDYLRDQHOHYRUGHFRODLDWHUL]DFXRvQWkU]LHUHPHGLHPDLPDUHGH01PLQXWH
4. 3UH XOXQXLELOHWGHDYLRQYDVF GHDFXFHOSX LQ6
5. 3kQ ODRUL]RQWXOGHWLPSVWXGLDWYHQLWXOSRSXOD LHYDFUHWHvQPHGLHFX9SHDQ
6. ([WLQGHUHDRUDXOXLspre aeroport va impune o anulare a zborurilor de noapte cu un procent de
RZ %
(unde evident NT, CP, MN, S,V,RZ primesc valori numerice concrete)
6  SUHVXSXQHP GH DVHPHQHD F  LQL LDO FHORU  LSRWH]H OL V-DX DWULEXLW SUREDELOLW LOH S S
egale resSHFWLYFXLDUSUREDELOLW LOHFRQGL LRQDWHLQL LDOHVXQWFHOHGLQ
tab. 3.3. - 1.
Tab. 3.3.-3UREDELOLW LOHFRQGL LRQDWHLQL LDOHSLMSL j )
1
2
3
4
0,5 / 0,3
0,7 / 0,4
0,8 / 0,1
1
0,8 / 0,3
0,5 / 0,7
0,9 / 0,6
2
0,7 / 0,6
0,4 / 0,7
0,7 / 0,6
3
0,8 / 0,1
0,6 / 0,3
0,4 / 0,4
4
0,7 / 0,6
0,6 / 0,6
0,6 / 0,6
0,8 / 0,6
5
0,5 / 0,8
0,8 / 0,5
0,5 / 0,7
0,7 / 0,7
6

5
0,6 / 0,1
0,7 / 0,7
0,7 / 0,6
0,4 / 0,1
0,9 / 0,7

,QXUPDSUHOXFU ULLSULQPHWRGD0RQWH&DUORUH]XOW PDWULFHDGLQWDE

- 2.

6
0,4 / 0,5
0,9 / 0,6
0.8 / 0,4
0,1 / 0,7
0,6 / 0,6

Tab. 3.3. -3UREDELOLW

LOHSUHOXFUDWHSULQDSOLFDUHDPHWRGHL0RQWH&DUOR

p(i / j) / p (i / j )
p(i)
1
1
2
3
4
5
6

2
0,55 / 0,14

0,89 / 0,51
0,72 / 0,52
0,81 / 0,11
0,78 / 0,54
0,59 / 0,78

0,51 / 0,79
0,51 / 0,18
0,63 / 0,67
0,81 / 0,48

3
0,50 / 0,29
0,57 / 0,83
0,42 / 0,38
0,64 / 0,64
0,73 / 0,66

4
0,83 / 0,13
0,85 / 0,55
0,63 / 0,58
0,75 / 0,57
0,54 / 0,81

5
0,50 / 0,25
0,66 / 0,69
0,60 / 0,60
0,47 / 0,28

6
0,35 / 0,57
0,77 / 0,42
0,63 / 0,54
0,31 / 0,62
0,66 / 0,61

0,72 / 0,68

0,41
0,67
0,60
0,40
0,64
0,70

9RP HOLPLQD DD FXP DP VSXV 3 GDU L GH H[HPSOX 3 FDUH DU

preVXSXQH F

 QXP UXO GH WXULWL DU VF GHD vQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH SUH XO ELOHWHORU VFDGH LDU YHQLWXULOH

FUHVF5H]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHILQDOYRUFODVLILFDVFHQDULLOHDVWIHO

S 12
S 14
S 30
S 01
S 60
:
S 33
:
S 48
:
S 18
S 63
S 53
S 36

P(0,0,1,0,1,1) = 0,158
P(0,1,0,0,1,1) = 0,110
P(0,1,0,0,0,1) = 0,097
P(1,1,1,1,1,1) = 0,092
P(0,0,1,0,0,0) = 0,070

Nucleul (6 p ! 0,.5)

P(1,1,1,0,1,0) = 0,057
scenarii contrastante
P(0,0,0,1,0,1) = 0,029
P(0,1,1,1,0,1) = 0,017
P(1,0,0,0,0,0) = 0,014
P(1,1,0,1,0,0) = 0,004
P(0,0,1,1,1,0) = 0,001

scenarii posibile dar improbabile

9RP FDOFXOD DSRL PDWULFHD GH HODVWLFLWDWH SH FDUH R SUH]HQW P vQ WDE 
YDULD LHDSUREDELOLW

- 3. pentru o

p = 0,1.

LORU

Tab. 3.3. - 3. Matricea de elasticitate.

1
2
- 0,12
1
0,4
2
- 0,28
- 0,96
3
- 0,37
- 0,20(*)
4
0,13(*)
- 0,71
5
- 1,32(**) - 0,09(*)
6
2,50
2,08
6~ ~

3
4
- 0,24
- 0,47
- 1,1 (**) 0,24 (*)
- 0,64
- 0,39
- 0,74
- 0,26
- 0,73
- 1,60(**)
3,20
3,21

5
- 0,23
- 0,71
- 0,74
- 0,30
- 0,76
2,74

6
- 0,54
- 0,21
- 0,64
- 0,61
- 0,69
2,69

6~ ~

1,60
2,66
3,26
1,87
2,53
4,50