1

The Catastrophic Cyclone of April 1991 in Bangladesh

Bangladesh Studies (GED 1105)

SUBMITTED BY

Name Roll

Ahnaf Ali 2225171167

Fardina Rabbi 2225171169

Fowzia Afrin 2225171151

Md. Suyab Rashid Sudad 2225171159

Tawsif Ishfaq 2225171171

Department of Marketing
Section: A
Semester: 1st

SUPERVISOR
Brig. Gen. Shafaat Ahmad, PhD, ndc, psc (Retd) Professor
Department of Business Administration in Marketing
Faculty of Business Studies
Bangladesh University of Professionals
Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka- 1216

Date of Submission: 03.11.22

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LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL

The Course Instructor

Bangladesh Studies
Faculty of Business Studies
Bangladesh University of Professionals
Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka- 1216.

Subject: Term Paper on “The Catastrophic Cyclone of April 1991 in Bangladesh”

Dear Sir,
We are pleased to submit the term paper on “The Catastrophic Cyclone of April 1991 in
Bangladesh” under the course of Bangladesh Studies. This letter marks the submission of our
term paper. Although we are still in the learning curve, this report has enabled us to gain
insight into the core fact of how the disastrous cyclone swept through our motherland and
how the people of our country came back stronger afterwards. Therefore, it becomes an
extremely challenging and enthralling experience. Thank you for your supportive
consideration for formulating the idea. We hope you acknowledge the effort, dedication and
the devotion we have shown towards this paper. However, we understand that our work is far
from perfect, thus, we welcome any and all the criticism you have of my work.
Sincerely,
Ahnaf Ali (2225171167)
Fardina Rabbi (2225171169)
Fowzia Afrin (2225171151)
Suyab Sudad (2225171159)
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Firstly, we would like to thank the Almighty Allah for blessing us with the ability to
successfully complete the dedicated task. In preparation of this term paper, we had to take the
help and guidance of some respected persons, who deserve our deepest gratitude. We would
like to show our gratitude to our course instructor, Brig. Gen. Shafaat Ahmad, for giving us
splendid guidelines to complete the term paper. We also thank him for giving us the
opportunity to go deep into an important subject matter like the catastrophic cyclone of April,
1991 and gain knowledge about the ruthlessness of mother nature. We would also like to
expand our gratitude to all those who have directly and indirectly guided us in writing this
paper. Lastly, we would like to thank our classmates who have made valuable comment
suggestions on our paper which gave us inspiration to improve the quality of the paper.
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DECLARATION

We hereby declare that the report titled “The Catastrophic Cyclone of April 1991 in
Bangladesh” is a product of our day and night effort under the guidance of the Course
instructor, Brig. Gen. Shafaat Ahmad. The report has been submitted to the Faculty of
Business Studies, Department of Business Administration in Marketing, at Bangladesh
University of Professionals. This report is a partial fulfilment of the 1st semester Final
Examination 2020 for the course of Bangladesh Studies (GED 1105). We further declare that
the work projected in this report has not been previously submitted in this or any other
institute.

Place: Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka

Date:04/06/2020

Signature Signature Signature Signature

 Executive Summary

In terms of probability, Bangladesh is vulnerable to at least one major 'tropical cyclone' each
year. This is primarily due to Bangladesh's geographical location in tropical Asia, as well as
its concave coastline and shallow continental shelf. The devastation caused by such cyclones.
The intense human occupation of the area, the predominance of traditional sociocultural
values and religion, the precarious socioeconomic conditions of the majority of coastal
inhabitants, and the lack of a coordinated institutional disaster planning and management
strategy all contribute to the impact on humans. The survey results show a wide range of
indigenous adjustment mechanisms that aid in the rehabilitation of survivors; also visible are
the significant roles that social inequality variables and the magnitude of physical
vulnerability play in influencing disaster loss and recovery. The research recommends that
disaster risk reduction policies be integrated into national economic development plans and
programs. It is specifically proposed that the cyclone warning system incorporate human
response to warnings as a constituent part, thus accommodating human dimensions in its
operational design.
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Table of Contents

● Introduction……………………………………………………….7
● TheEvent………………………………………………………….…7
● Past History of Bangladesh Cyclone………………………………..7
● Casualties………………………………………………………..8-9
○ Agriculture
○ Forestry & Livestock
○ Infrastructure
○ Mortality
● The Economic Impact Of Cyclone 1991………………………………10
● Cyclone Warning Systems and Shelter Programme…………………..12
● Study from Shelters……………………………………………………..13
● Cyclone Warning Signals……………………………………………….13
● Current Situation of Bangladesh………………………………………14
● Lessons Learned – Operation Sea Angel Relief Operation……………..15
● Lessons Learned – Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation……………15
● Impact on Regional Income……………………………………………17
● 91 Cyclone still haunts Survivors…………………………………….…18
● Disaster Probabilities……………………………………………………20
● Conclusion………………………………………………………………21
● Reference………………………………………………………………22
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Introduction: Natural disasters are those tragedies no one is able to control. both
life-altering events and significant harm are brought by them. Cyclones are one type of
natural disaster. A hurricane is the ideal example of a cyclone to use when describing it
because both storms revolve around a centre point of low air pressure. The sole distinction
between the two is that they have different names since they occur in different places.
cyclones are hurricane-like storms that form in the Indian ocean, whereas typhoons form in
the pacific ocean and hurricanes form in the Atlantic ocean. The storm from april 1991,
known as cyclone 2b, was tracked for a week as it moved through the bay of bengal on its
route to the north. The bangladesh cyclone of 1991 was a terrible natural disaster that had a
significant negative impact on bangladesh's physical topography, population, and economy.

The event: The 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, which struck between april 22 and 30, was one
of the worst tropical storms ever seen. The storm hit near the port city of Bangladesh,
chittagong. The bay of bengal was the storm's starting point, and it started to move north. The
storm was termed tropical storm 02b on april 24. from there, it started to broaden and
aggressively advanced into the storm categories one after the other. on april 25th, the torm
took an even more furious form. Although the cyclone was becoming increasingly fierce,
the following day it went towards the northwest. On the 28th and 29th, as the storm
increased its 2 speed to the north-northeast, the cyclone rapidly intensified to 1-minute
sustained winds of up to 160 mph (260 km/h), the equivalent to a “category 5” hurricane.
Later on the 29th, cyclone 02b slammed ashore south of Chittagong with speeds of 155 mph
(250 km/h) as a slightly weaker “category 4” cyclone. A storm surge as high as 15 feet (5
metres) swamped southeast Bangladesh's flat coastal plains, causing immediate destruction.
The storm quickly lost strength before dissipating over southeast asia on the 30th. The flood
destroyed crops, created worries of widespread starvation, and washed away entire
communities and farms, causing economic hardships in addition to crop destruction.

Past history of Bangladesh Cyclones: Whether they like it or not, the low-lying area
is at significant danger for these tropical disasters. The 710 km long Bangladeshi shoreline is
a relatively recent formation that resulted from sedimentation. Since the majority of the area
is low lying, it is susceptible to flooding even during normal tide conditions. The scenario is
worrying because of a tidal surge and cyclone storm, which are made worse by the bay of
bengal's triangle form. cities near the bay of bengal have undoubtedly seen and experienced
many storms that originate in the indian ocean. Bangladesh's topography as a humid tropical
area has contributed significantly to the country's high susceptibility to catastrophic disasters
including floods, cyclones, and storm surges; these environmental phenomena worsen the
nation's already unstable socioeconomic and demographic conditions. according to
probability estimates, bangladesh is susceptible to at least one significant tropical cyclone
annually (mooley, 1980), however an analysis over the years 1890 to 1969 reveals that, on
average, 13 depressions were created annually, of which 4 became tropical storms
(raghavendra, 1973). The bay of bengal has a variety of weather factors that are required for
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tropical cyclone formation. The bay's water is at least 26 degrees celsius throughout the entire
year; this factor is probably of greatest importance as sea temperature of this magnitude to a
depth of about 60 m is needed in the area for the development of a cyclone. A minimal
vertical shear in the horizontal wind close to the potential cyclone is the second general
condition. The bay of bengal experiences this circumstance twice a year, from april to may
and from september to november, when the wind field over the bay is favourable for the
required low-level inflow and high-level outflow. Additionally, the concavity of the bay and
its estuaries intensifies the surges while the shallowness of the deltaic coastal shelf
contributes to surge elevation.

Casualties: Recovering the victims' bodies took several weeks. The number of fatalities
has been estimated to be between 135,000 and 145,000. Cyclone 2b is said to have made up
to 10 million people homeless. a million head of cattle were also lost. due to this and the
significant crop loss, the survivors faced a serious risk of famine.

1. Agriculture: there were significant disruptions to the agricultural industry. 35,000

tons of vegetables, tubers, and other crops were lost along with about 247,000 tons of
grain harvests. The prospects for the main rice harvest (june-october) were poor due
to damage to coastal embankments, high salinity in some regions, and a lack of tools,
seeds, and fertilisers. According to estimates, the cyclone killed 2.4 million chickens,
218,000 goats, and about 224,000 cattle. The livestock that did survive were
malnourished and in terrible health. losses in the fishing industry were as catastrophic,
with 31,000 hectares of shrimp farms, as well as fish processing facilities, vessels, and
stocks, suffering significant damage.

2. Forestry & Livestock: losses in the fishing industry were as catastrophic, with
31,000 hectares of shrimp farms, as well as fish processing facilities, vessels, and
stocks, suffering significant damage. a significant amount of fuel wood and timber
were lost by the forestry industry, and coastal mangrove plantations were devastated,
raising the risk of future severe coastal erosion. The impacted population's ability to
revert to its previous means of subsistence was anticipated to face significant
challenges as a result of these losses.
3. Infrastructure: 780,000 dwellings were destroyed, 9,300 schools were damaged
or destroyed, and 655 medical facilities were also damaged or destroyed, according to
estimates from the government of bangladesh (gbd). train, road, and aviation service
were all hampered, along with the supply of power, water, and communications to the
affected communities. coastal embankments of 940 kilometres were damaged and
more than 190 kilometres were destroyed. There were many contaminated or
damaged tubewells. surface water was salinized in various places, including bathing
and cleaning ponds. Nearly every industry in Chittagong's port region was severely
damaged, and the port itself was left in ruins.
4. Mortality: a total of 1,206 cyclone-related deaths were recorded by the
epidemiological survey in 12 of the worst-affected unions, with 11,434 people
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classified as cyclone vulnerable. The result was a death rate of 105 per 1,000 people,
or 10.5%. Although the precise number of fatalities lost in the cyclone likely will
never be known, there are numerous estimates. These differ greatly based on various
techniques. a total of 131,539 deaths were estimated by the government using
"intelligent guesswork," of which 19,133 happened in Kutubdia (government of
bangladesh, 1991). Our estimate of the overall number of fatalities would be 67,226 if
a correction factor discovered for kutubdia could be extended for the entire storm
affected area. In the three months after the cyclone, a total of 49 fatalities were
recorded. extrapolating, this amounts to a death rate of 19.5 per thousand people per
year, which is marginally higher than bangladesh's average annual death rate.

Death rates by broad age group

age group death rate per 100 no. of deaths

0-14 154.5 871

15-49 40.0 188

50+ 134.0 147

all ages 105.5 1206

The death rates in our survey by age group are shown in the table. death rates were
disproportionately higher for children and the elderly (p<0.01). children under the age of 15
accounted for over three-quarters of the fatalities. the age range of 15-49 saw the lowest death
rate. figure 2 displays the mortality rate by age for both males and females. In all age groups,
females died more often than males, with the very young and very old showing the greatest
gender disparities. Even among individuals aged 20 to 44, females died substantially more
frequently (71 per 1000) than males (15 per 1000). when compared to households where a
respondent was present (92.7), the death rate was significantly greater in those that were
absent (225.6) (p<0.001). According to reports, 16% of homes prior to the hurricane had a
working radio. the death rate was lower in these homes (p<0.01) the death rate also seems to
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be correlated with literacy. aged 6 and older, illiterate or less literate individuals died more
frequently than literate individuals did (p<0.01).

The Economic Impact Of Cyclone 1991:

On the full moon night of April 29, 1991, a very strong cyclonic storm with wind speeds of
about 240 km/h hit Bangladesh's coastline. The outlying islands and the mainland shoreline
were destroyed by the storm surge that was created by the eye's passage, which was near the
beach and raised it to an exceptional height of more than 9 m above means sea level. It will
take years for the physical infrastructure of the Chittagong port and the nearby industrial
sector to recover from the enormous damage. The hurricane, storm surge, and its aftereffects
resulted in about 145 000 fatalities, making it one of the most devastating natural
catastrophes of the 20th century. The scope and severity of the calamity are examined in this
essay. It examines the effects of the cyclone on Bangladeshi residents and the environment in
which they live. The number of fatalities and the harm done to many industries, including
agriculture, business, and physical infrastructure, are briefly described. The article
emphasises the necessity of constructing an adequate number of multipurpose cyclone
shelters in Bangladesh's disaster-prone coastal regions. In the case of a cyclonic storm,
adequate precautions should be taken to remove individuals from at-risk areas and place them
in these shelters. It is advised that the current cyclone warning system be streamlined. It talks
about how challenging it is to help the survivors. Finally, it is stressed how important It is to
upgrade the coastal communities' communication infrastructure. The most output was lost
due to the storm in the Chittagong Division, whereas the most money and jobs were lost in
the Barisal Division. Housing services, agriculture, construction, and industrial operations are
the industries most impacted. Sectoral losses, however, differ significantly between regions.
It killed more than 135,000 people and caused more than $150 billion in damage. A standard
deviation rise in tropical cyclone damage is correlated with a decline of 262 percentage points
in the annual sectoral growth rate, with the agricultural, hunting, forestry, and fishing sectors'
aggregate annual growth being the sector with the highest adverse effects. In all industries,
there was extensive and serious damage. Estimates from the Government of Bangladesh
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(GBD) indicate that 655 health centres, 9,300 schools, and 780,000 dwellings were damaged
or destroyed. the impacted area's communications, water, and power lines, train, road, and
aviation service were all interrupted, and areas were severed. in excess of 190 kilometres, 940
kilometres of coastal embankments were damaged. There were many tube wells polluted or
ruined. Surface water was salinized in various places, including ponds used for cleaning and
bathing. Nearly all sectors in Chittagong's port area experienced severe damage, leaving the
port itself in ruins. There were significant disruptions to the agricultural industry. 35,000 tons
of vegetables, tubers, and other crops were lost along with about 247,000 tons of grain
harvests. The likelihood of success was hampered by the destruction of coastal embankments,
severe salinity in some regions, and a lack of tools, seeds, and fertilizers. June to October, the
primary rice crop, is doomed. around 224,000 cattle, 218,000 goats, and 2.4 million sheep.
Millions of chickens were thought to have died in the cyclone. surviving animals were in
poor health and not given enough food. Losses in the fishing industry were equally
catastrophic with significant harm to fish processing facilities and 31,000 hectares of shrimp
farms, stocks, and boats. A UN task committee that examined the cyclone's effects estimated
the cost of restoration and rehabilitation at $1.78 billion. The cyclone calamity prompted a
significant response from both the international community and the government of
Bangladesh. alone provided by the US government over $28 million is allocated to
catastrophe response and recovery operations, with $4.7 million going to $1.9 million in
OFDA funding went toward relief efforts, and 9,850 metric tons of Under "Operation Sea,"
P.L. 480 wheat and $14.3 million in costs for the Department of Defence were included.
'Angel', a Section 506A operation that permitted the removal of goods
and services from DOD supplies for restoration following a disaster.

Cyclone Warning Systems And Shelter Programme:

Cyclones can form in the Bay of Bengal, which borders Bangladesh's southern coast. Ten
percent of tropical cyclones on Earth originate in the Bay (Gray, 1968; Ali. 1980;
Government of Bangladesh, 1992). In 1970's last major cyclone, 224,000 people perished
(Sommer and Mosley, 1972). Both the cyclones that struck in 1970 and 1991 struck in the
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dead of night, making it even harder for people to look for shelter. Drowning is the primary
cause of death in this type of catastrophe. Windy conditions only make things worse. The
coast is frequently swept by 30-foot-high water walls. Such surges batter for three to four
hours as they come one after the other. Bangladesh's meteorological division is set up to
identify climatic disturbances well in advance. They were quite accurate in their warnings,
giving at least 15 hours' notice before the April 1991 disaster struck the coast (Ahmed and
Afreen, 1992).

Over the past 30 years, the government has constructed a lot of concrete buildings to provide
shelter for people during impending cyclones. There were created a total of 60 double-story
coastal community centres and 40 single-story sub-coastal community centres. Following the
cyclone of 1970, the government built an extra 238 multipurpose "cyclone shelters" with help
from the World Bank. 74 new storm shelters were constructed in the 1980s by the Bangladesh
Red Crescent Society (BRCS) and Caritas, a nearby non-governmental organisation (NGO)
(Government of Bangladesh, 1992). Additionally, the government built about 150 kil/as
(artificial hills), primarily to shield domestic animals from flooding. Following the 1985
storm at Urirchar (Siddique et al.1988), the Bangladeshi government constructed 260 nuclear
houses with help from India and Pakistan to help the survivors get back on their feet. Pakistan
constructed a sizable mosque, and India constructed a central cyclone shelter (also used as a
shelter during the 1991 cyclone). However, it is obvious that they are insufficient to shelter
even a small percentage of the vulnerable population. Over 95% of the population's homes
are not sturdy enough to endure such cyclones. There was no systematic program to
encourage the development of concrete buildings for the public's safety during cyclones
except from erecting cyclone shelters.

The Bangladeshi warning system has significantly advanced since the hurricane of 1970.
Initial indications of climatic depressions come from a satellite network that the Space
Research and Remote Sensing Organisation (SPARRSO) in Dhaka keeps an eye on. This
information is subsequently sent to the meteorological department, which tracks the cyclone's
journey and regularly publishes bulletins on its location, wind speed, and potential striking
zones. Indicators of an impending tropical storm in the local weather include rising tides,
increased swell, increasing cloud cover, lowering barometric pressure, and heavy rainfall.
The country's media, including the press, radio, and television, disseminate these
announcements. Depending on the distance, speed, and direction of the winds, there are
eleven cyclone storm warning signals or categories (Table 1). However, the signals are more
meant for ships and ports than for those living along the coast. Over 20,000 local volunteers
for the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BRCS), all of them are stationed in coastal regions.
These village volunteers get the danger alerts from the Cyclone Preparedness Programme
(CPP) of BRCS via a network of district and sub-district control offices. Then, the volunteers
warn the public using megaphones and door-to-door outreach to encourage them to go to
local storm shelters (if accessible) or safer locations.
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Study From Shelters:

Two types of shelters were compared for their life saving functions (AC, 199lb). The first
called formal shelters, were government shelters purposely built in the coastal and offshore
areas to provide refuge from cyclones and tidal surges. The second, called informal shelters,
were houses, schools, offices, and other buildings used for refuge .An assessment of the use
of these shelters was conducted in all six unions of Kutubdia, the four worst affected unions
of Banshkhali, and one union of Sandwip. Users and nonusers of the formal shelters were
interviewed by trained male interviewers to determine the reasons for not using them and to
identify problems encountered by the users .When asked if the principal respondent had taken
refuge by themselves, 30,5% of those surveyed said they had. 53.8 percent of the places used
as shelter were private homes, 23.5 percent were public structures like mosques, schools, and
orphanages, and 14.5 percent were designated shelters. The remaining people sought shelter
in buildings like bars and restaurants, embankments, and trees (it should be noted that trees
are more useful than is typically realized). 70% of those surveyed who did not seek shelter
said they did not think a cyclone and surge of this size would actually occur.

Cyclone warning signals:

Distant Cautionary Signal No.1: Ships may be exposed to danger after they have left the
harbour; there is a region of squally weather out at sea.

Distant Warning Signal No.2: Ships may be exposed to danger after they have left the
harbour; a storm has formed out at sea.

Local Cautionary Signal No.3: The port itself is threatened by squally weather.

Local Warning Signal No.4: The port is threatened by a storm but it does not appear that the
danger is sufficiently great to justify extreme measures.

Danger Warning Signal No.5: The port will experience severe weather from a storm of slight
or moderate intensity that is expected to cross the coast to the south of the port.
Danger Warning Signal No.6: The port will experience severe weather from a storm of slight
or moderate intensity that is expected to cross the coast to the north of the port.

Danger Signal No.7: The port will experience severe weather from a storm of slight or
moderate intensity that is expected to cross over, or near to the port
.
Great Danger Signal No.8: The port will experience severe weather from a storm of great
intensity that is expected to: cross the coast to the south of the port.

Great Danger Signal No.9: The port will experience severe weather from a storm of great
intensity that is expected to: cross the coast to the north of the port.
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Great Danger Signal No.1O: The port will experience severe weather from a storm of great
intensity that is expected to cross over, or near to the port.

Failure of Communications: Communications with the meteorological warning center have

broken down and the local officer considers that there is danger of bad weather.

Current Situation of Bangladesh:

Only 44 cyclone shelters were in place in the nation in 1970 when the cyclone that hit Bhola
hit, and there were hardly any pre-disaster plans. There were only two coastal radars in
Bangladesh, and disaster warning systems frequently lagged behind satellite images from
other organisations like the National Earth Satellite Centre (NESC) in the US.

However, Bangladesh now has more than 50 weather stations, balloons, and radars; receives
data from WMO national and regional offices; and provides forecast information at the
national and local levels by broadcasting early warnings over mosque speakers, text
messages, radio, and television alerts.

Additionally, the proliferation of cyclone shelters significantly contributes to lifesaving.

Bangladesh currently has more than 14,000 shelters with a capacity to house 2.4 million
people, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
(IFRC). As a result, there have been 75% fewer fatalities in the past 25 years.

Bangladesh has also made progress in terms of using female staff members and volunteers to
protect women. In order to improve the warning system and evacuation after cyclone Bhola,
the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society established the Cyclone Preparedness Programme
(CPP). Currently, CPP has 76,000 volunteers and 200 staff members, of which 50% are
female. Since women were the last to leave during cyclones, more women volunteers have
contributed to the safety of women in shelters and to their evacuation. These programs have
contributed to a decrease in fatalities. While Bangladesh is praised for having a 100-fold
decrease in cyclone deaths, the nation has yet to secure the properties and livelihood of at-risk
communities. The number of cyclone shelters has increased from 400 to 14,000 over the past
30 years, but there are still not enough for the 35 million people who live close to the coast.

Lessons Learned – Operation Sea Angel Relief Operation

1. The U.S. joint task force (JTF), attempted to maximise the civilian population's
participation in the operation - coordinating all its activities with the Bengali
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government and various nongovernmental organisations. The coordination facilitated

the military withdrawal as the situation transitioned from relief to rehabilitation.
2. The JTF also sought to maximise the impact of the operation’s activities on the
devastated civilian population. Civilians were encouraged to trust the military force's
ability to provide safe, reliable supplies (such as filtered water). Because of the
massive devastation throughout Bangladesh, the operation minimised the military
footprint and the burden placed on civil society by military demands.

Lessons Learned – Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation

1. A credible warning system is essential. After the cyclone, there was a

recognition that many vulnerable people had either not received the warning that a
major cyclone was imminent or had not believed or responded to the warnings, and
many attempts to improve warning systems followed. A survey conducted several
years after the cyclone struck found that half of the affected population did not believe
it had received enough warning. Over 75% said that the messages were not
believable. Warning systems were improved in the years between the 1991 cyclone
and another cyclone in May 1994; 81% of surveyed residents felt that the warning
system in 1994 was better than the warning system in 1991. Still, not all households
took preparatory actions for the 1994 cyclone, reinforcing the necessity of convincing
people to take appropriate actions before a cyclone hits. In addition, in 1994 it was
found that the system for numbering cyclones was a source of confusion. A
numbering system that more closely corresponded to people’s perceptions of cyclone
danger would have been valuable.
2. Adequate shelter must be available and accessible, and residents
must not delay in seeking shelter. Some of those who attempted to respond to
the warnings in 1991 could not find appropriate shelter. Investigations afterward
found that the number of shelters was not adequate for the number of people at risk.
Casualties were significantly lower in areas where people had mad use of existing
cyclone shelters. In the years immediately following the cyclone, there were many
attempts to improve and increase the number of shelters. Following the 1994 cyclone,
90 percent of surveyed residents felt that there was more shelter space than there had
been in 1991. When the May 1994 cyclone struck, a majority of residents in the
affected areas sought shelter, with 80% ending up in shelter outside their homes.
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About 73 percent of residents from Kutubdia, which had been hardest hit by the 1991
cyclone, sought shelter in a form cyclone shelter. Many residents in another affected
area, however, did not leave for shelter until after their homes had collapsed, a delay
that put them in greater danger. Although people felt that there was more shelter space
in 1994 than in 1991, the major complaint of those who went to a cyclone shelter was
that there was not enough room to move. The increase in shelter numbers and
capacity was not enough, and continued efforts were needed. One suggestion was that
shelters that can also serve as schools and community centres be built, so that the
buildings are put to use during non-cyclone periods. In 1994, one of the main
complaints people had in getting to the shelter was that the roads were bad.\
3. Good preparation helps disaster recovery and reduces damage;

education is important. Household level preparations such as burying food and

water, removing handles from pumps, and moving livestock to higher ground can
significantly aid recovery and reduce damage. Three years after the 1991 cyclone,
preparedness activities were still not well established. This showed that there was a
need to explore introducing a cyclone preparedness instruction into the curriculum of
formal and non-formal primary education in cyclone-prone areas
4. Coastal embankments, though not without costs, can help protect

communities exposed to flooding. Coastal embankments reduce saline

flooding from high lunar tides and storm surges. However, in the case of cyclones,
there must be cyclone shelters to provide protection from the high winds and rain. The
costs of such embankments are high, as well as highly variable, depending on the
slope of the accreted land to be embanked. Great care needs to be taken to ensure that
adequate drainage for rainfall runoff is provided and that the embankment location
takes into consideration the location of saline water shrimp activities. Embankments
need to be designed, constructed, and managed in a multi-purpose way in order to
maximise their benefits as places of residence, economic production (from forestry),
and transport. One major negative impact is the effect on the movement of migratory
fish species. In addition, in cases where settled land has to be acquired for
construction purposes, significant conflicts can arise. Careful planning is needed to
reduce disruptions to navigation. Embankments often give a false sense of security to
some people who wrongly imagine they can take refuge on them.
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5. Afforestation in coastal areas and sustainable forest management can

help mitigate the effects of cyclones. The GBD implemented coastal

mangrove planting projects, and the impacts of forestry planting in the coastal areas
were nearly all found to be positive. Planting coastal areas with appropriate mangrove
species for cyclone protection assists in land stabilization and dissipation of wave
energy. Maintaining productive use of the land is also important. Such a policy would
need to be managed in a sustainable way, including thinning and cutting the
mangroves at suitable times and carrying out forest planting and management
activities with the full participation of local people. Appropriate vegetation that do not
cause damage to coastal areas is needed (bananas are particularly problematic). The
use of species with a splayed root system, which assists in stabilising the earth, is
ideal. Disputes over rights to previously accreted as well as new land can make the
execution of an afforestation policy difficult. The planting of forests may be in
competition with the use of land for grazing, however with careful and sensitive
management both can co-exist. One negative result of planting forests is an increased
risk of malaria, which forest habitats create by providing a suitable breeding ground
for mosquitoes.

Impact on Regional Income: Income multipliers were highest for the Barisal region,
and Sidr’s negative impact on income was the greatest for Barisal Division. While the direct
damages caused approximately a 1.25 % induced loss in income, the loss reduced to 0.95 %
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when changes in consumer spending and public/private investment were taken into account.
The other two coastal regions namely Khulna and Chittagong faced income loss of around
0.5 %. Across the regions, loss of household income is the largest for housing services and
one of the regions’ key economic sectors—agriculture. Figure 10 shows the changes in
regional income for Sidr scenarios. Construction was the only sector that received some
income gain in all of the four regions when investments were made. Impact on Regional
Employment: When the induced impact of the cyclone on regional employment is examined,
it is found that the loss was greatest for Barisal Division, followed by Chittagong and Khulna
Divisions. Our results suggest that agriculture-related employment is more vulnerable to
cyclone impact than that in all other sectors. The next vulnerable sector is housing-related
employment. For these two sectors, changes in the final demand vector bring minimal
opportunity to encourage employment. The case is true for all the divisions. For the
construction (backward linkage oriented), professional and miscellaneous (forward linkage
oriented), and industrial activities (key sector), investment has been proved worthwhile by
allowing increased opportunity of employment in the respective sectors.

91 cyclone still haunts survivors

More than two decades ago, on this very day in 1991, Gorky, a tropical cyclone with wind
speed of 160 miles per hour struck the coastal areas of southern Bangladesh. The category 5
hurricane claimed at least 1,38,000 lives, left about 10 million people homeless and damaged
properties of about $1.5 billion, making it one of the world's major natural disasters in the last
century. The storm surge rose to an unusual height of more than six metres above the mean
sea level, which devastated the offshore islands and the mainland coast. Although the cyclone
struck the whole coastal area of the country, Chittagong was the worst affected area with the
majority of deaths and property damage. Volunteers buried a total of 75,528 bodies, most of
 19

them in mass graves, while many others were swept into the sea. Huge damage was caused to
the physical infrastructure of the port of Chittagong and adjoining industrial area. Shaktiman,
a 100-ton crane at the port, was uprooted and smashed on the Karnaphuli River Bridge,
breaking the bridge into two parts. A number of boats and small ships were also heavily
damaged. Bases of the Bangladesh Navy and Bangladesh Air Force in Chittagong were badly
damaged. A graveyard at Bot Tola of Maizpara village in Patenga upazila is such a mass
graveyard in Chittagong. A tombstone epitaph at the graveyard reads, "47 people are buried
here who died in the 1991 cyclone". Forty-one-year-old Rabeya Begum will never forget the
horror of the moment when the hurricane Gorky hit her offshore village Shahid Ghati of
Maizpara that night. Her four brothers and three sisters who died that night are buried in that
grave. Rabeya, who was 20 back then, can clearly remember the nightmarish scenes of that
night. She could do nothing but witness neighbours being washed away into the sea by the
storm surge. Houses collapsed one after another. Cattle were swept away by the strong
currents and winds, while panicked people were running to find shelter. Rabeya said some 22
families used to live in different houses in a compound of the village. Of them 14 families left
the compound seeking shelter after hearing warning signal number 10 around 10:00pm.
Along with about 50 members of the remaining eight families, she took shelter in the
attic-like space of a tin-shed house as it was a comparatively stronger roof among the houses
in the compound. "The floor of the attic was made of bamboo, covered with cardboard," she
recalled. As water kept rising the cardboards and bamboo got wet causing the attic floor to
collapse drowning 47 people, she said. But Rabeya and two others could luckily escape from
death by holding on to a guava tree. "After battling for hours with the storm and water surge,
finally I felt that the storm was over," said Rabeya. But more shock was waiting for her the
next morning, as she found corpses including bodies of her siblings piled up for burial at the
graveyard. Not only Rabeya -- Nur Mohammed, Islam Chowkider, Akter, Jafar and Ayesha
also lost their family members who took shelter in that attic that night. Nur Mohammed lost
five members of his family, Islam Chowkider also lost five family members, Akter lost his
parents and a brother, Jafar lost four family members, and Ayesha lost five. The bodies of
their relatives were buried in the mass grave. With the help of eight volunteers, Badiul Alam,
who is now 50, buried the corpses. Standing in front of the graveyard recently he said, "We
piled up the 47 corpses and buried them in a grave." "We found corpses left scattered even
after a week of the cyclone in the area," he said adding that there are many other graves of
unidentified corpses in the locality. Cyclone is not a new phenomenon in Chittagong region.
In his book 'Ain-E-Akbari', Abul Fazal mentioned about cyclones which struck the region in
 20

the 16th century. Several cyclones struck this land in 1775, 1897, 1960, 1963, 1970 and 1985.
On November 12, 1970 the country experienced a deadly cyclone that claimed about five
lakh lives in the country's coastal region from Sandwip to Patuakhali.

Disaster Probabilities: The study finds that a cyclone of Sidr’s magnitude can induce a
total output loss of 186,234.70 million BDT (USD 2450.46 million) coupled with large
amount of income and job losses. The present state of investment expenditure is not large
enough to handle the induced losses of a cyclone disaster. Improved forecasting and warning
systems, introduction of coastal afforestation projects, construction of cyclone shelters in the
cyclone-prone areas, and people’s timely evacuation and safe accommodation at the shelters
can minimize direct damage and loss of life from cyclone disaster (GoB 2008). But to
withstand indirect and induced losses, careful investment in regional economies is necessary
for successful cyclone disaster recovery and mitigation. Not all regions of the country are
equally vulnerable to cyclone disaster. The coastal regions of Bangladesh— Barisal,
Chittagong, and Khulna—are more vulnerable to cyclone damage than any other parts of the
country. Our study results suggest that if a cyclone like Sidr strikes Bangladesh coast again,
the induced loss of output will be the highest for Chittagong Division and that of employment
and income will be greatest for Barisal Division. Housing and agriculture sectors will face the
highest output and income loss, whereas job loss will be larger in the agriculture sector. But
large variation in sectoral losses will be obvious if the spatial dimension is considered. For
example, among the coastal regions, output loss will be most serious in the housing services
of Chittagong Division and least in the housing services of Khulna Division. In contrast,
income loss will be most substantial in Barisal Division’s housing services. Chittagong will
be the least affected division if total income loss is considered. In case of employment loss,
the agriculture sector of Barisal Division will suffer the most and that of Khulna will be the
least affected sector. Housing services become severely affected by a cyclone and it is neither
a backward nor a forward linkage oriented sector. Therefore, it is hard to ensure any
investment in housing services sector that would rectify the situation. Nonetheless,
investment should be directed towards restoration of livelihood components, including the
housing services, at the recovery and reconstruction phase using the ‘‘build back better’’
approach (GoB 2008). As agriculture and industry are the two key sectors for the regional
economies of Bangladesh, generous investment amounts should be directed into these
sectors, particularly in the agriculture sector (as the sector becomes severely affected during
cyclone disasters). Such investments may act as a strong force to address and mitigate
 21

potential disaster situations. Investment also can be directed towards research and
development of saline water submergence tolerant crop varieties and the introduction of such
modern varieties at the field level. Options for microcredit loans should be explored to
increase output production of agriculture sector, particularly in a cyclone disaster recovery
stage when fields are likely to be damaged by salt water intrusion. Agriculture is one of the
key sectors of national and regional economies, and any gains in productivity will help
diminish the inevitable loss of income and employment experienced by the households of
cyclone-affected regions. Structural and nonstructural investment options in the industry and
construction sectors may also prove helpful to increase output, income, and employment
throughout the district economies.

Conclusion: This study investigates regional economic impacts of a category IV

cyclone—cyclone Sidr. Based on secondary data, the study traces direct damages and
corresponding change in consumer spending and public/private investment in response to the
cyclone disaster. The research also estimates the induced effects of the disaster on national
and regional output, income, and employment. The project aims to understand interaction
among different sectors of regional economies during cyclone hazard. Forecasting of cyclone
impacts is not at all within the scope of this study. Rather using an IO model, the Sidr effects
are estimated for six regions of Bangladesh so that the nation in general and the regions in
particular, can be better prepared to handle extreme cyclone events. Due to Bangladesh’s
geomorphological placement and geographical location, cyclone events have become a
prominent risk. There is an increased possibility of recurrent extreme cyclone events within
the changing global climate situation. Therefore, objective formulation of disaster response
policies and their effective implementation should receive due attention both at regional and
sectoral level. Failure to do so will adversely affect the sectoral output, income, and
employment sectors of Bangladesh with a reduction in the per capita GDP of the country as a
whole.
 22

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