Professional Documents
Culture Documents
TÓM TẮT
Mục tiêu của nghiên cứu này là nhằm phân tích ảnh hưởng của tài chính toàn diện đến hiệu quả
của chính sách tiền tệ tại Việt Nam với cách thức đo lường yếu tố tài chính toàn diện bao quát hơn
với. Sử dụng phương pháp Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) với thời gian quan sát từ
2009Q1 đến 2019Q4, kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng việc nâng cao khả năng tiếp cận các sản
phẩm tài chính như cho vay hay tiền gửi giúp làm giảm tỷ lệ lạm phát và ổn định giá cả ở Việt
Nam. Ngoài ra, nghiên cứu này khác với các nghiên cứu trước đây ở việc xem xét thêm vai trò
của công nghệ tài chính trong mối quan hệ giữa tài chính toàn diện và hiệu quả của chính sách
tiền tệ tại Việt Nam bởi vì công nghệ tài chính được xem là xu hướng tất yếu trong quá trình phát
triển của nền kinh tế. Tuy nhiên, kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra tác động không đáng kể của việc đổi
mới công nghệ tài chính với chính sách tiền tệ tại Việt Nam. Dựa trên những kết quả nghiên cứu
thực nghiệm này, chúng tôi cũng đưa ra một số đề xuất về việc phát triển tài chính toàn diện và
nâng cao vai trò của việc đổi mới công nghệ tài chính tại thị trường Việt Nam trong thời gian tới.
Từ khóa: Tài chính toàn diện; Công nghệ tài chính; Hiệu quả của chính sách tiền tệ.
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https://nhandan.com.vn/nhan-dinh/trien-khai- This is a global data provider on technology,
thuc-hien-chien-luoc-tai-chinh-toan-dien-quoc- information, which has started over 20 years and
gia-616271/ focused on emerging financial markets.
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instruments can be gauged either by price- agents (Bernanke & Gertler, 1995). Bernanke
based or quantity-based. and Gertler (1995) also emphasize that the
A strand of this literature focuses on the magnitude of monetary policy shocks would
interest rate channel to examine the nexus increase in an imperfect financial market.
between financial development and monetary Simatele (2004) argues that the bank lending
policy. It has been conceded that the channel is supposed to completely tackle
variation in interest rates would result in information failure by depository institutions,
capital cost changes, driving customers to while balance sheet transmission signifies the
spend or save and thus changing the impact of monetary policy on the net value of
macroeconomic situation. According to firms and their collaterals. Loutskina and
Keynesian economic theory, changes in Strahan (2009) evidence that the bank-
interest rates are likely to drive investment lending channel is less effective on condition
and consumption which are major that mortgages are securitized. It is also
components of aggregate demand. In other noticeable that the increasing arrival of non-
words, this elucidation denotes that given a bank lenders also negatively influence the
low level of financial inclusion, the interest bank lending channel (Misati et al., 2010).
rate would not act as an effective tool of Related to the balance-sheet transmission,
monetary policy. this channel signifies the changes in
Concerning the direct monetary channel borrowers’ balance sheets and income
or the money supply channel, monetary statements under the impact of monetary
policies can be expansionary or policy. Once expansionary monetary policy
contractionary. Given recession threatens, pushes interest rates down to a low level
central bank would increase the money which then facilitates the access to loans of
supply by increasing the number of loans, bank borrowers, stimulating spending and
leaving aggregate demand shifted downward. investment. In this regard, the development
On the other hand, contractionary monetary of financial inclusion will enhance the
policy aims at curbing inflation by which effectiveness of monetary policy
loan quantity decreases and aggregate transmissions, consequently boosting
demand shifts upward. Comparing different economic activity. Ashcraft and Campello
monetary policy mechanisms, Yetman (2007) have proven that the impact of the
(2018) points out that the quantity balance sheet channel is strengthened given
mechanism seems to be less effective than the availability of financial securitization.
the former regarding the influence of 2.2. Empirical research
financial inclusion on monetary policy
choices. 2.2.1. The nexus between financial inclusion
and monetary policy effectiveness
Beyond these traditional channels, credit
Existing literature mainly focused on the
channel is conceived as the influence of
monetary policy in terms of the informational relationship between financial inclusion and
asymmetry between the creditor and the macroeconomic stability which is proxied by
debtor (Mishkin, 1996). In this respect, GDP growth, poverty alleviation, and income
monetary policy has been transmitted inequality (i.e. Ashraf et al., 2006; Chibba,
2009; Dupas & Robinson, 2013; Sarma,
through two channels, which are bank
2016). Park and Mercado (2015) claim that
lending and balance sheet of economic
financial inclusion makes meaningful
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TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(04) - 2021
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TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(04) - 2021
relationship between lending interest rate and indicating that interacting technological
inflation rate, which is akin to the study of innovation with financial inclusion will not
Saraswati et al. (2020) in Indonesia. This improve monetary policy effectiveness.
might be partly explained by the cost-push By and large, financial inclusion
factors leading to inflation in Vietnam. positively influences the effectiveness of
Table 4. FMOLS regression including monetary policy in Vietnam. FinTech plays a
FinTech negligible role in transmitting the impact of
Dependent Variable: INFLATION financial inclusion on monetary policy
effectiveness.
Method: Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS)
Date: 03/28/21 Time: 23:35 4.4. Robustness check4
To perform the robustness check, we
Sample (adjusted): 2009Q2 2019Q1
substitute financial inclusion by the
Included observations: 40 after adjustments development of financial market
Cointegrating equation deterministics: C development. This variable is gauged by the
ratio of domestic to the private sector,
Long-run covariance estimate (Prewhitening with
lags = 3, Bartlett kernel, Newey-West fixed calculated by the percentage of GDP. We
bandwidth = 4.0000) also find the same results as the baseline
model, which indicates that financial
Std. t-
inclusion positively influences the monetary
Variable Coefficient Error Statistic Prob.
policy effectiveness in Vietnam.
GDPGROWTH 1.731 0.040 42.492 0.00
5. Conclusion
FREEDOMINDEX 0.486 0.021 22.533 0.00
As seen in the above analyses, the
BROAD_MONEY 0.073 0.005 12.967 0.00
financial inclusion and monetary policy
FII -0.450 0.024 -18.278 0.00 effectiveness in Vietnam are linked by a set
LENDINGRATE 1.224 0.008 144.078 0.00 of long-run relationships. Particularly, our
findings indicate that the higher Vietnamese
INTERACT 7.06E-10 2.80E-10 2.520 0.02
population accessed and used services of
C -43.664 1.299 -33.598 0.00 financial inclusion, the lower inflation rate
Mean economy has to experience. The findings are
R-squared 0.912 6.216
dependent var in line with Lenka and Bairwa (2016),
Adjusted R-squared 0.896 S.D. dependent var 4.491 Birgitta (2019) and Tonuchi (2021) who
concluded that financial inclusion
S.E. of regression 1.447 Sum squared resid 69.116
development contributes to a sound and
Long-run variance 0.009 effective monetary policy in other
developing countries. In other words, an
In this model, we examine the role of
improvement of accessibility to financial
FintTech in conveying the influence of
products such as loans or deposits will
financial inclusion on monetary policy
reduce the inflation rate, which helps to
effectiveness. We then interact FinTech and
stabilize the price level in Vietnam.
Financial Inclusion Index. The result shows
that signs of the coefficients are almost
similar to the baseline model. The magnitude
of the interaction term is quite small, 4
Results will be provided upon request.
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TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC KINH TẾ - SỐ 9(04) - 2021
On the other hand, although as the main forgot to mention one of the most important
variable in forming financial innovation, platforms to promote them is the payment
FinTech plays a negligible role in transmitting platform5. From there, in order to build up
the impact of financial inclusion on monetary financial inclusion in Vietnam, the payment
policy effectiveness in Vietnam under our platform must reach 100% of the population.
statistic results. This result has not shown the In fact, in Vietnam, many customer segments
role of fintech development as previous cannot fully access banking services;
studies like Douglas et al (2020), Ayse et al. especially the poor, the young, the
(2020) and Tonuchi (2021). Fintech, unemployed, the uneducated, and those
meanwhile, is a means of financial inclusion living in rural and remote areas. The
(Mehrotra, 2019), and its role is particularly percentage of people using credit cards is
important in the current Covid-19 pandemic still low, but the density of mobile
(The World Bank, 2020). In other words, the subscribers has existed over 100% for many
widespread of Covid-19 has accelerated the years. Due to the popularity and small value
approval of Fintech in payment. Also, in the payments, Mobile Money will contribute to
post-pandemic period, the technological the banking system and other non-cash
innovations in financial market could help to payment systems to provide a full range of
ensure sustainable development. In principle, payment methods for people based on their
indicators for Fintech is a comprehensive set desires. your bridge. Therefore, Prime
of metrics on the digital finance industry Minister Phuc X. Nguyen has just signed a
(mobile money, branchless banking, agent Decision approving the pilot deployment of
banking, e-wallets etc.); however, as mobile mobile money on March 9, 2021. Because
money pilot has been not launched in this is just in the pilot phase, the government
Vietnam, there is no data of mobile money needs to build a solid legal corridor for this
transactions available and we use the type of service. If the identification of
transactions via electronic interbank payment customers, spam sim management and
instead. Hence, it might lead to undesirable anonymous transactions are not strictly
research results. Therefore, we would like to implemented, Mobile Money can be a
propose a number of implications that aim to channel to "wash trade". Therefore, it is
serve as a pedal of conducting more in-depth essential to coordinate between State Bank,
studies on FinTech for Vietnam. Additionally, the Ministry of Information and
these suggestions can be considered as the Communications, and the Ministry of Public
orientation for developing FinTech in Security in supervising and controlling
Vietnam. Mobile Money implementation.
#1. Government should build up a #2. Regulators should be proactive and
payment platform that 100% of Vietnam’s plan to build a data protection legislation
population could access and use One of the problems preventing FinTech's
Speaking at a conference named growth in developing countries like Vietnam
"Electronic money on mobile subscribers to
improve financial inclusion" (May 2019),
Hung M. Nguyen, the Minister of
5
Source: https://mic.gov.vn/mra/Pages/TinTuc/
Information and Communication, said that
139041/Tien-dien-tu-tren-thue-bao-di-dong---
Vietnam is aiming for included development giai-phap-sang-tao-thuc-day-chuyen-doi-so-va-
by E-commerce, start-up, innovation; but, phat-trien-tai-chinh-toan-dien.html
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TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ - ĐẠI HỌC ĐÀ NẴNG
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