a.i.

kvaSa

ra aris demografia?

moskovi
1985

1
demografiisa da mosaxleobis socialur problemaTaA
literaturis redaqcia

recenzenti l.e. darski

mTargmneli a.S. saxvaZe

gamomcemloba `Мысль~ 1985

2
 winasityvaoba

Cvens droSi sityva `demografia~ ukve aRar iwvevs gaocebas.

mosaxleobis problemebze laparakoben da bevrs weren,
mecnierebi da Jurnalistebi, gamodis popularul naSromTa
seriebi, demografiis kursi iswavleba qveynis rig umaRles
saswavleblebSi. gavida is dro, roca sityva `demografia~-s
urevdnen demografiis msgavs sxva sityvebSi. demografia gaxda
mecniereba yvela misi atributiT _ Tavisi meTodebiT, TeoriiT,
praqtikuli amocanebiT. ufro metic, is xdeba `moduri~
mecniereba aseTi popularobisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli yvela
plusiTa da minusiT. am ukanasknels upirveles yovlisa
miekuTvneba gamartivebuli warmodgena demografiuli procesebis
arsze, maTi analizis moCvenebiTi siadvile, zogjer ki
miswrafeba kerZo monacemebiT, Tavisi cxovrebiseuli
gamocdilebis safuZvelze Sors mimavali ganzogadebebisa da
daskvnebis gakeTeba.
swored amitom vcdilobT, romAdemografiis ZiriTadi
problemebi gadmovceT mkiTxvelTa farTo wrisaTvis gasagebi
formiT. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, ismis amocana vupasuxoT
kiTxvebze: ra aris demografia rogorc mecniereba da ras
Seiswavlis igi, rogoria demografiuli analizis ZiriTadi
meTodebi da misi Sedegebis interpretacia, ra emarTeba qveynis
mosaxleobas axla da rogoria misi ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi?
gasagebia, rom yvela es kiTxva Suqdeba mravalricxovan
monografiebsa da statiebSi, TiToeuli maTgani SeiZleba mTeli
rigi gamokvlevis Temac ki iyos. arsebobs demografiis
specialuri fundamenturi saswavlo saxelmZRvaneloebic,

3
romlebic SeiZleba gamoiyenon maT, visac surT ufro
dawvrilebiT da rac mTavaria profesiulad Seityon
demografiis problemebze.
winamdebare wignSi ZiriTadad Cveni qveynis mosaxleobis
problemebsa da misi ganviTarebis tendenciebs ganvixilavT. es
srulebiTac ar niSnavs mosaxleobisA rolis ugulvebelyofas
sazRvargareTis qveynebis socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebaSi,
ubralod am problemas specialuri Sromebi unda mieZRvnas, maT
Soris popularulic.
amitomac wignis bolos motanilia mosaxleobis
problemebisadmi miZRvnil naSromTa sia, upirveles yovlisa ki
ukanasknel wlebSi masobrivi tiraJiT gamosuli wignebisa,
romlebic dainteresebul mkiTxvels demografiuli codnis
gaRrmavebaSi daexmareba.
Cven aq gavagrZelebT demografiuli problemebis
popularulad gadmocemis mcdelobebs, romlebic avtoris mier
ukve iyo gamoyenebuli (ix. `Популярная демография,~ М., 1977) da
romelze miRebuli SeniSvnebic, mocemul naSromSi
SeZlebisdagvarad aris gaTvaliswinebuli. ase rom, misgan
gansxvavebiT, aq yuradReba gamaxvilebulia demografiis im
nawilebze, romlebic mniSvnelovania rogorc praqtikuli
muSaobisaTvis, aseve mosaxleobaSi mimdinare movlenebis arsisa
da maTi perspeqtivis gasagebad. esaa demografiuli analizis
Tanamedrove meTodebi da maTi SesaZleblobebi, demografiuli
prognozireba, Cveni qveynis ganviTarebis tendenciebi da
demografiuli politikis problemebi. borts miRma darCa
demografiis bevri mniSvnelovani nawili, magaliTad, wyaroebi
mosaxleobis monacemTa Sesaxeb, ucxoeTis qveynebis mosaxleobis

4
ganviTarebis tendenciis analizi, demografiuli Teoriis mTeli
rigi sakiTxebi. Tumca, rogorc amboben, `SeuZlebelia usazRvros
mocva,~ miT ufro, SedarebiT mcire moculobis gamocemaSi.

5
 Tavi I
demografia da Tanamedroveoba

mosaxleobis problemebi, maTi Seswavla araa mxolod

mcirericxovani specialistebis xvedri, maTze xSirad weren
presaSi, iZlevian momavlisaTvis mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da
Semadgenlobis Sefasebas. mosaxleobis ganviTarebis
tendenciebis gaTvaliswineba, xdeba, rogorc mTlianad qveynis,
aseve misi calkeuli regionebis socialur-ekonomikuri
dagegmvis mniSvnelovani elementi, gansakuTrebiT Soreul
perspeqtivaSi. es upirveles yovlisa dakavSirebulia imasTan,
rom mosaxleoba warmoadgens SromiTi resursebis formirebis
safuZvels. ssrk 1 -Si miRebulia, rom Sromisunariani asakis
mosaxleobas miakuTvnon vaJebi 16-dan 60 wlamde da qalebi 16-dan
55 wlamde; esaa mosaxleobis ZiriTadi nawili, romelic qmnis
qveyanaSi materialur da sulier faseulobebs. amasTan, is
adamianebi, romlebic 2000 wels miaRweven Sromisunarian asaks,
e.i. romlebsac SeusruldebaT 16 weli, daibadnen mxolod 1984
wels. maSasadame, dgeba dabadebaTa momavali ricxvis, e.i. Cveni
qveynis mSromelTa momavali ricxvis gansazRvris amocana.
magram SromiT resursebs, maT racionalur gamoyenebas, maT
Soris xeliT SromiT dasaqmebulTa ricxvis Semcirebas, Sromis
nayofierebis zrdas, misi organizaciis gaumjobesebas,
mSromelTa sxvadasxva damxmare samuSaoebiT mocdenas, bevri
samecniero organizacia da saxelmwifo organo Seiswavlis. ase
magaliTad, Sromis samecniero-kvleviTi institutis
gaangariSebiT, xeliT SromiT dasaqmebulTa mxolod 1%-

1
ssrk _ sabWoTa socialisturi respublikebis kavSiri (mTargmnelis SeniSvna).

6
iTASemcireba saSualebas mogvcems mrewvelobaSi
gamovanTavisufloT daaxloebiT 100 aTasi adamiani, xolo
mSeneblobaze _ 30 aTasi adamiani. sabWoTa ekonomistebis
SefasebiT warmoebaSi dasaqmebis siWarbe Seadgenda 15-20%-s. 2

momavali SromiTi resursebis ricxovnobis gansazRvrisas

saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT wlebis mixedviT Sobadobis donis
ryevebi.
cnobilia, rom dabadebaTa yovelwliuri ricxvebi xSirad
icvleba. ase magaliTad, 1960 wels ssrk-Si daibada 5,3 mln.
bavSvi, 1970 wels _ 4,2, xolo 1984 wels _ 5,4 mln. 3 es niSnavs,
rom dabadebidan 16 wlis Semdeg Sromisunarian asakSi Sevlen
raodenobrivad gansxvavebuli kontingentebi, rac dagegvaSi
agreTve winaswar unda iqnas gaTvaliswinebuli. demografiuli
codna saWiroa bevri sxva amocanis gadaswyvetadac. ase
magaliTad, dRes da momavalSi mosaxleobis sursaTiT
uzrunvelyofisaTvis saWiroa ara marto misi saerTo ricxvis,
aramed sqesobriv-asakobrivi struqturis codnac. bavSvebis
kvebis racioni, magaliTad, moculobiTac da SemadgenlobiTac
gansxvavdeba mozrdilebis kvebis racionisagan. Tavisi
Taviseburebebi aqvs agreTve ufrosi asakis adamianTa kvebis
racionsac. maSasadame, namdvilad mecnierulad dagegmvisa da
mosaxleobis kvebis produqtebiT uzrunvelyofisaTvis saWiroa
vicodeT ara marto ricxovnoba, aramed mosaxleobis sxva
xarisxobrivi maCveneblebic. amitom sasursaTo programis
realizaciisas saWiroa gaTvaliswinoT demografiuli faqtoric.

2
ix. Рузанова Е.И. Экономический механизм перехода к интенсивным формам использования рабочей силы. -
В кн.: Трудовые ресурсы, вып. 11. М., 1983, с. 32, 35.
3
Вестник статистики, 1985, № 3, с. 80.

7
 vaJebisa da qalebis ricxovnoba, maTi asakobrivi
maxasiaTeblebi unda gaviTvaliswinoT tansacmlis, fexsacmlisa
da farTo moxamrebis sagnebis sxvadasxva saxeobebis warmoebisas.
mosaxleobis asakobrivi Semadgenloba mniSvnelovan gavlenas
axdens samedicino kadrebis momzadebis struqturazec. Tu
magaliTad, perspeqtivaSi gaizrdeba dabadebaTa ricxvi, maSin
aucilebelia winaswar momzaddes bavSvTaAeqimebi _ pediatrebi.
Tu momavalSi qveyanaSi moimatebs xandazmul adamianTaAricxvi,
xolo rogorc ukve viciT, es procesi axla sakmaod aqtiurad
viTardeba, amitom aucilebelia gavzardoT specialist-
kardiologebis, onkologebisa da sxvaTa momzadeba, agreTve
gul-sisxlZarRvTa daavadebebis mkurnalobisaTvis gankuTvnili
aparaturis warmoeba, xolo umaRlesi saswavleblebisa da ara
marto maTi muSaobis gardaqmnisaTvis ara erTi weliwadi iqneba
saWiro.
imis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe, Tu ramdeni iqneba perspeqtivaSi
skolamdeli da saskolo asakis bavSvebi, ar SeiZleba sworad
daviangariSoT momavlisaTvis saWiro sabavSvo dawesebulebebisa
da skolebis, maTSi aRmzdelebisa da maswavleblebis ricxvi.
xolo rogorc ukve aRiniSna, dabadebaTa ricxvi wlidan wlamde
icvleba, rac aisaxeba skolebisa da sabavSo saxlebis
datvirTvaze.
mravalerovnul sabWoTa saxelmwifoSi laparakoben, weren da
kiTxuloben bevr enaze. wignebi gamoicema sabWoTa xalxebis 89
enaze. maSasadame, saWiroa vicodeT Tu ramdeni adamiani
laparakobs da kiTxulobs ama Tu im enaze, raTa sworad
davgegmoT erovnuli literaturis gamocema, im

8
radiosadgurebisa da satelevizio studiebis saqmianoba,
romlebsac gadacemebi sxvadasxva enebze mihyavT.
qveynis momavali mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da ojaxuri
Semadgenlobis, ojaxebis sididis, maTSi bavSvebis ricxvis
ganawilebis codnis gareSe, SeuZlebelia ara marto sworad
davgegmoT sabinao mmSeneblobis moculoba, aramed mosaxleobis
moTxovna sxvadasxva tipis binebze. ubavSvo qorwinebiTi wyvilis
binas sxvagvari dagegmareba unda hqondes, vidre or-sam bavSviani
ojaxis binas. Tumca sacxovrebeli saxlebi Sendeba mravali
aTwleulisaTvis, amitom saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT ara marto
mosaxleobis ojaxuri Semadgenlobis Tanamedrove struqtura,
aramed Sobadobis tendenciebi momavalSi.
cnobilia, rom Sobadoba Cvens qveyanaSi gansakuTrebiT
rsfsr 4 -Si, ukrainaSi, belorusiaSi, baltiispireTSi, ukanasknel
wlebSi mcirdeboda. magram mniSvnelovania am faqtis ara
ubralod aRricxva, aramed upirveles yovlisa saWiroa
gamovarkvioT, ratom xdeba es, rogoria Sobadobis Semcirebis
Sedegebi, saWiroa Tu ara raime RonisZiebis gatareba Sobadobis
waxalisebisaTvis, xolo Tu diax, maSin romeli RonisZiebebi
iqneba yvelaze metad efeqturi.
saeWvoa, vinmes gaukvirdes debuleba imis Sesaxeb, rom
winandelTan SedarebiT mokvdaoba mniSvnelovnad Semcirda,
gansakuTrebiT umcros da saSualo asakebSi. 5 da amis
safuZvelze mniSvnelovnad gaizarda mosaxleobis sicocxlis
xangrZlivoba. magram axlac mosaxleobis janmrTelobis dacvis

4
rsfsr _ ruseTis sabWoTa federaciuli socialisturi respublika (mTargmnelis
SeniSvna).
5
mkacrad rom vTqvaT, mokvdaoba zogadad ar mcirdeba, radganac ar arseboben ukvdavi
adamianebi. xdeba misi intensivobis umcrosi da saSualo asakebidan ufrosi asakebisaken
gadanacvleba, da amis Sedegad izrdeba mosaxleobis sicocxlis xangrZlivoba, razec
ufro dawvrilebiT qvemoT iqneba saubari.

9
Semdgomi gaZliereba erT-erTi yvelaze mniSvnelovani
socialuri amocanaa.
momavlisaTvis saWiroa winaswar vicodeT ama Tu im wels
pensiaze gamsvlelTaAricxovnoba, raTaAgaviangariSoT sapensio
uzrunvelyofisaTvis saWiro saxsrebis moculoba. magram
Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis cvalebad doneebs, omis danakargebis
gavlenas, imisken mivyavarT, rom sapensio asaks miRweuli
mosaxleobis jgufebi, sxvadsxva wlebSi erTnairi ar aris. ase
magaliTad, ssrk-Si, 1970 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebiT
30-34 wlamde asakSi vaJebi iyo 10,4 mln., xolo 35-39 wlis asakSi
_ 8,1 mln. amrigad, vaJTa sqesis mosaxleobis ricxovnoba,
romelic daaxloebiT 1990-2000 wlisaTvis miaRwevs sapensio asaks,
e.i. 60 welsa da mets, arsebiTad gansxvavebuli iqneba. es wliuri
gansxvavebebi saWiroa winaswar gaviTvaliswinoT, raTa
socialuri uzrunvelyofis organoTa muSaobaSi sirTuleebi ar
warmoiSvas.
Cvens qveyanaSi milionobiT adamiani gadadis sacxovreblad
axal adgilas _ soflidan qalaqad, qalaqidan qalaqad,
qalaqidan soflad. marto 1973 wels qalaqur dasaxlebebSi 9,9
mln. adamiani Camovida. mosaxleobis adgilgadanacvlebis gareSe
SeuZlebelia axali teritoriebis, pirvel rigSi ki cimbirisa da
Soreuli aRmosavleTis aTviseba, mTlianad qveynis ekonomikis,
ganviTareba. am gadaadgilebaTa, anu, rogorc amboben,
mosaxleobis migraciis racionalobis detaluri analizi da
maTi Sedegebi aucilebelia im RonisZiebaTa kompleqsis
damuSavebisaTvis, romlebic sazogadoebis grZelvadiani
interesebidan gamomdinare, saWiroa maTi marTvisaTvis.

10
 samrewvelo sawarmoTa mSeneblobis dagegmvisas aucilebelia
vicodeT, Tu ramdenad iqnebian isini uzrunvelyofili SromiTi
resursebiT adgilobrivi mosaxleobis xarjze, an mogviwevs Tu
ara maTi sxva regionebidan mozidva. saWiroa winaswar
ganvWvritoT, Tu ramdeni Sromisunariani asakis adamiani
icxovrebs axal qalaqSi Tu raionSi, vaJi da qali cal-calke
(rogorc mTlianad, aseve specialobis mixedviTac), da amis
safuZvelze davgegmoT sabinao mSenebloba, momsaxurebis sferos
ganviTareba da bevri sxva ram. samwuxarod, praqtikaSi swored am
obieqtebis mSeneblobis CamorCena iwvevs muSaTa kadrebis
denadobas, gansakuTrebiT ki axalgazrdobisas, es ki Tavis mxriv
negatiurad aisaxeba samrewvelo obieqtebis mSeneblobis tempebsa
da xarisxze.
Cveni sazogadoebis ganviTareba mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli im
procesTan, romlebic mimdinareobs ojaxSi. rogorc cnobilia,
ojaxi, warmoadgens sazogadoebis umniSvnelovanes ujreds.
masSi yalibdeba bavSvis pirovneba, is aris kvlavwarmoebis
safuZveli. amitomac misi formirebebisa da daSlis tendenciebi
sazogadoebis yuradRebis centrSi unda iyos.
moyvanil magaliTebs (TiToeuls cal-calke) kerZo xasiaTi
aqvs, magram isini saSualebas iZleva, davaskvnaT, rom
xalxTmosaxleobis problemebis kvleva sazogadoebriv
mecnierebaTa erT-erT aqtualur dargs warmoadgens. ufro metic,
Cvens droSi demografiuli faqtoris gavlenis gaTvaliswinebis
gareSe SeuZlebelia grZelvadiani socialur-ekonomikuri
programebis warmatebiT ganxorcieleba. maTi Seswavlis

11
aqtualobasa da aucileblobas xazi gaesva skkp 6 -is XXVI
yrilobaze.
demografiuli procesebis xasiaTisa da arsis mniSvnelobis,
qveynis ekonomikis ganviTarebaze maTi rolisa da zemoqmedebis
gavlenis codna ara marto mecnierebis an, magaliTad, ssrk-is
sagegmo komitetisaTvis aris mniSvnelovani. demografiul
movlenaTa kanonzomierebebisa da maTi socialuri mniSvnelobis
gageba Cveni sazogadoebis wevrTaTvis iseTive aucilebeli da
elementaruli unda gaxdes, rogorc literaturis, fizikisa da
qimiis safuZvlebis codna. `demografiuli ganaTleba~
aucilebelia yvela sameurneo xelmZRvanelisaTvis,
gansakuTrebiT ki, qveynis sxvadasxva mxareSi demografiuli
procesebis xasiaTis mravalferovnebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
socialuri da ekonomikuri ganviTarebis gegmebis realizebisas
maTma gauTvaliswineblobam SeiZleba seriozuli
disproporciebi gamoiwvios.
ase, magaliTad, zogjer presaSi gamoCndeba xolme cnobebi
imis Sesaxeb, rom axalmSenebare qalaqebSi, Sobadobis maRali
donis gamo, sabavSvo dawesebulebebiT uzrunvelyofis problema
Zneli gadasawyvetia. magram saqme cota sxvagvaradaa. am
qalaqebSi, rogorc wesi, bevri axalgazrdaa, bevri qorwindeba,
pirvel SvilTa, _ romlebic xSirad ukanasknelnic arian,
gaCenaTa didi ricxvi, drois mcire mokakveTzea xolme
koncentrirebuli. miuxedavad imisa, rom ufro xSirad
axalgazrda ojaxebi upiratesobas aZleven, rom iyolion erTi
an ori Svili, dabadebaTa es `piki~ sirTuleebs qmnis jer
sabavSvo bagebSi, baRebSi, Semdeg skolebSi, xolo misi dacemis

6
skkp _ sabWoTa kavSiris komunisturi partia (mTargmnelis SeniSvna).

12
Semdeg ki, baSvTa dawesebulebebi bavSvebiT daukompleqtebeli
rCeba. skolamdel dawesebulebaTa epizoduri gadatvirTvebi
iwvevs qalTa dasaqmebis Semcirebas, kadrebis denadobis zrdas.
amis Tavidan asacileblad saWiroa bavSvTa dawesebulebebis,
skolebis, saavadmyofoebisa da sxvaTa mSeneblobis dagegmvisas
gaviTvaliswinoT `struqturuli~ gadatvirTvis aseTi
SesaZleblobani.
romeli movlenebi miekuTvneba demografiul procesebs? esaa
dabadebaTa, gardacvalebaTa, qorwinebaTa, ganqorwinebaTa da
migraciis SemTxvevaTa erToblioba, romlebic warmoadgenen
mTavars, mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da Semadgenlobis
cvlilebisas. mTlianobaSi maT SeiZleba Sesabamisad vuwodoT:
Sobadobis, mokvdaobis, qorwinebis, ganqorwinebisa da migraciis
procesebi. am movlenaTa ricxvi yovelwliurad Zalian didia.
1983 wels sabWoTa kavSirSi daibada 5 392 aTasi da gardaicvala
2 823 aTasi adamiani, daqorwinda 2 835 aTasi da registrirebul
iqna 945 aTasi ganqorwineba. imisaTvis, rom SeviswavloT es
procesebi da gamovavlinoT maTi kanonzomierebani, aucilebelia
gavigoT am procesTa ZiriTadi tendeciebi. winaaRmdeg
SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba CaviZiroT calkeul SemTxvevaTa, Tundac
Zalian saintereso faqtebis zRvaSi, xeebs iqiT veRar davinaxoT
tye. amitom saWiroa, rom movlenebis am zRvaSi davinaxoT
ZiriTadi kanonzomierebebi, zogadi tendeciebi da maTi
mamoZravebeli Zalebi. swored amaSi mdgomareobs demografiuli
mecnierebis erT-erTi ZiriTadi amocana.
axla SevecadoT zogadi saxiT pasuxi gavceT kiTxvas: ra
aris demografia? termini `demografia,~ am mecnierebis
gansazRvrisaTvis pirvelad jer kidev XIX saukunis SuaxanebSi

13
(1855 w.) iqna SemoTavazebuli, frangi mecnieris a. giiaris mier.
pirdapiri TargmaniT is niSnavs `xalxTaRweras:~ `demos~ _
xalxi, `grafia~ _ aRweriloba. adre, kvlevis am dargs
akuTvnebdnen an statistikas, an uwodebdnen populacionistikas.
magram, sanam am mecnierebis arss ganvmartavdeT, saWiroa
kidev erTi mniSvnelovani SeniSvna gavakeToT. mosaxleobaSi
mudmivad xdeba mamaTa da dedaTa Taobis Svilebis TaobiT
Secvla, icvleba mosaxleobis asakobrivi Semadgenloba da
ganaTlebis done. ufro zustad rom vTqvaT, mimdinareobs
TaobaTa cvlis procesi, romelsac mTlianobaSi mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoeba ewodeba.
SevecdebiT ganvmartoT demografiis rogorc mecnierebis
Seswavlis sagani. yvelaze farTo gagebiT, demografia aris
mecniereba, romelic Seiswavlis mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis
kanonzomierebebs maT socialur-ekonomikur ganpirobulobaSi.
demografebi xSirad amboben ase: Cven vswavlobT mosaxleobis
moZraobaTa sxvadasxva saxeebs, e.i. im procesebs, romlebic
cvlian mosaxleobis ricxovnobasa da Semadgenlobas. ufro
xSirad miRebulia mosaxleobis moZraobis ori saxis gamoyofa,
romelTac ewodebaT bunebrivi da meqanikuri moZraobebi.7
bunebriv moZraobas uwodeben Sobadobis, mokvdaobis,
qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis procesebs. maT Soris ZiriTadia
Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis procesebi, radganac maTi gavleniT
icvleba mosaxleobis ricxovnoba da Semadgenloba. meqanikuri
moZraoba, anu migracia, ewodeba erTi punqtidan meoreSi, an erTi
da imave punqtis SigniT mosaxleobis mudmiv an droebiT
7
zogjer demografiul procesebSi Tvlian mosaxleobis e.w. socialur moZraobasac, e.i.
adamianTa erTi socialuri jgufidan meoreSi gadanacvlebas.

14
gadaadgilebas. ganasxvaveben agreTve gare _ qveynis sazRvrebs
gareT da Sida migracias _ magaliTad, soflidan qalaqad, erTi
qalaqidan meoreSi.
zemoT ukve iTqva, rom demografiul movlenaTa sidide
drois mixedviT icvleba; Cvens qveyanaSi didi gansxvavebani
arsebobs teritoriuli TvalsazrisiTac.
ase magaliTad, moskovis mcxovrebTaTvis tipiuria erT-or
bavSviani ojaxebi, xolo TurqmeneTis soflebisaTvis ki _ xuT-
Svid bavSviani. bunebrivia, ismis kiTxva am gansxvavebaTa
mizezebis Sesaxeb.
aRvniSnavT, rom gansxvavebaTa safuZvelia socialur-
ekonomikuri faqtorebis gavlena da ara biologiuri an
klimaturi faqtorebisa, rogorc uwin egonaT. es debuleba
damajerebladaa damtkicebuli marqsizm-leninizmis
klasikosebisa da mravali Tanamedrove mklevaris mier. Tuki
ruseTis istorias gavixsenebT, maSin TviT XIX s. bolomdec ki
mosaxleobas myari da mdgradi warmodgena hqonda imis Sesaxeb,
rom mravalSviliani ojaxi _ es ojaxis erTaderTi SesaZlo
formaa, am normidan yovelgvari gadaxra, rogorc ruseTis
evropul nawilSi, aseve da gansakuTrebiT ki Sua aziur
raionebSi iZraxeboda sazogadoebrivi azris mier da dauSveblad
iTvleboda. Cvens droSi ki piriqiT, ssrk-is rig raionebSi
yvelaze tipiuri erT-or bavSviani ojaxia.
saWiroa gansakuTrebiT gavusvaT xazi imas, rom bevr sakiTxSi
adamianTa warmodgenebi, rogorc ojaxSi, aseve mosaxleobis
garkveul jgufSi (profesiul, eTnikur, qveynis erTi da igive
nawilSi mcxovrebTa), maT Soris bavSvTa sasurvel da TviT
`modur~ ricxvzec, droTa ganmavlobaSi cxovrebis garemo

15
pirobebis mimarT did simdgradesa da garkveul
damoukidebulebasac ki iZens. amitom socialur-ekonomikuri
pirobebis cvla, gansakuTrebiT Tuki is mimdinareobs
TandaTanobiT, da ara, ase vTqvaT, naxtomiseburi formiT, arc Tu
ise maleAiwvevs ojaxis, da maSasadame, ojaxSi bavSvebis ricxvis
`demografiuli idealebis~ cvlilebas. jer icvleba socialur-
demografiuli pirobebi, Semdeg demografiuli idealebi, xolo
bolos ki (xSirad sakmaod xangrZlivi drois Semdeg) Tavad
demografiuli procesebis xasiaTi.
mosaxleobaSi mimdinare procesTa aseTi rTuli xasiaTi
ganapirobebs, rom demografebs TavianT muSaobaSi uwevT bevri
sxva mecnierebis meTodTa gamoyeneba, magaliTad socialuri
fsiqologiis, statistikisa da sxva. magram demografiis, rogorc
sazogadoebrivi mecnierebis safuZvelia marqsizm-leninizmis
klasikosebis mier SemuSavebuli istoriuli materializmisa
marqsistuli politekonomiis principebi. Tanamedrove pirobebSi
mimdinare movlenebis realuri suraTis gagebas ganapirobebs
demografiuli movlenebis analizisadmi mxolod kompleqsuri
midgoma da am mizniT analizis sxvadasxva meTodebis gamoyeneba,
TiToeuli am xerxis realuri SesaZleblobis codna da
miRebuli Sedegebis interpretaciisadmi gaumartivebeli midgoma.
bolo wlebSi mimdinareobs demografiidan kvlevis axali
mimarTulebebis gamoyofis procesi, romelTaganac bevri
damoukidebel xasiaTs iZens. aseTi gza mecnierebis bevri
dargisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli. axla krebsiT saxels `medicina~-s
uwodeben mecnierebaTa mTel sistemas _ pediatrias,
kardiologias, onkologias da sxva. aseTi diferenciaciis
safuZvels warmoadgens im faqtorebis sirTule da

16
mravalferovneba, romlebic mosaxleobis ganviTarebis
tendenciebs ganapirobebs. arsebiTad demografia xdeba
demografiul disciplinaTa mTeli sistema, romlidanac misi
Seswavlis zogadi mimarTulebis sazRvrebSi gamoiyofa
sxvadasxva, SedarebiT damoukidebeli kvleviTi mimarTulebani. es
aris, magaliTad, istoriuli demografia, romelic Seiswavlis
mosaxleobis ganviTarebis istorias. xalxTmosaxleobis
problemebis mecnieruli Seswavla efuZneba sazogadoebrivi
ganviTarebis kanonTa marqsistul-leninur gagebas, romelic
aRiarebs socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebis ganmsazRvrel
gavlenas sazogadoebriv ganviTarebaze da yovel sazogadoebriv
formaciaSi maTi gamovlenis specifikurobas. k.marqsma pirvelma
Camoayaliba debuleba imis Sesaxeb, rom xalxTmosaxleobis
ekonomokuri kanonebi unda ganixilebodes TiToeuli
formaciisaTvis cakl-calke, rameTu ar arsebobs
xalxTmosaxleobis raRac saerTo araistoriuli kanonebi. ` ...
warmoebis istoriulad gansazRrul yovel wess _ wers k.marqsi _
sinamdvileSi axasiaTebs Taviseburi istoriuli xasiaTis mqone
xalxTmosaxleobis kanonebi.~ 8 k.marqsma Tavis fundamentur
naSromSi `kapitali,~ Camoayaliba kapitalisturi formaciis
xalxTmosaxleobis kanoni, aCvena mosaxleobis ganviTarebis
kanonzomierebaTa Seswavlis ZiriTadi mimarTulebani.
demografiuli procesebis, gansakuTrebiT ki ojaxis
SeswavlaSi didi mniSvneloba hqonda f. engelsis fundamentur
naSroms `ojaxis, kerZo sakuTrebisa da saxelmwifos warmoSoba,~
romelmac principuli safuZveli Cauyara ojaxis formirebisa da
ganviTarebis kanonzomierebaTa Seswavlas.

8
Маркс К., Энгельс Ф. Соч., т. 23, с. 646.

17
 v.i.leninma didi wvlili Seitana demografiis Teoriuli
safuZvlebis Semdgom damuSavebaSi, kapitalizmis dros
mosaxleobis ganviTarebis kanonebis SeswavlaSi. gadaamuSava ra
ruseTis mosaxleobis 1897 wlis aRweris masalebi, man Tavis
naSromSi mogvca mosaxleobis socialuri struqturisa da
qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis ganviTarebis tendenciis, maTi
migraciis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebisa da qveynis socialur
cxovrebaze gadaadgilebaTa gavlenis analizi.
mosaxleobis problemebis kvlevam Cvens qveyanaSi
gansakuTrebuli ganviTareba oqtombris socialisturi
revoluciis Semdgom miiRo. jer kidev 1920 wels, v.i.leninis
miTiTebiTa da misi uSualo monawileobiT Catarda mosaxleobis
pirveli sabWoTa aRwera, romelmac moicva qveynis mosaxleobis
didi nawili (garda im raionebisa, sadac jer kidev ar iyo
damTavrebuli samoqalaqo omi), Seiqmna qveynis statistikuri
samsaxuri, umjobesdeboda demografiuli statistika.
ukanasknel aTwleulebSi gaaqtiurda xalxTmosaxleobis
problemebis Teoriuli da praqtikuli gamokvlevebi samecniero
dawesebulebebsa da saxelmwifo statistikis organoebSi. am
mxriv didi mniSvneloba hqonda mosaxleobis 1970 da 1979 w.w.
aRwerebsa da qveyanaSi farTod Catarebul sxvadasxva saxis
demografiul gamokvlevebs.
skkp da sabWoTa mTavroba did yuradRebas uTmobs
demografiul problemebs, maT mecnierebis Tanamedrove
miRwevebis safuZvelze gadawyvetas. skkp-is XXIV yrilobaze
daisva sakiTxi grZelvadiani demografiuli prognozebis
damuSavebis Sesaxeb. skkp-is XXV yrilobaze gamoiTqva azri Cvens

18
qveyanaSi demografiuli situaciis gamwvavebisa da efeqturi
demografiuli politikis SemuSavebis aucileblobis Sesaxeb.
demografiul procesebs gansakuTrebuli yuradReba daeTmo
skkp-is XXVI yrilobaze. xazgasmuli iyo, rom sazogadoebriv
mecnierebaTa sistemis im elementebs Soris, romelTa
Seswavlazec aucilebelia yuradRebis gamaxvileba, miekuTvneba
demografiac.9
yrilobam dasva efeqturi demografiuli politikis
praqtikuli realizaciis amocana, saxelmwifosa da
sazogadoebis mxridan ojaxisadmi farTo daxmarebis gaweviT.
yrilobis gadawyvetilebebSi dasaxuli iyo aseTi saxis
konkretuli RonisZiebebi, romlebic safuZvlad daedo Cvens
qveyanaSi demografiuli politikis gatarebas. 1981 wlis 31 marts
miRebul iqna skkp-is ck-isa da ssrk-is ministrTa sabWos
dadgenileba _ `bavSviani ojaxebisaTvis saxelmwifo daxmarebis
Sesaxeb,~ agreTve sxva dadgenilebebi, romlebic mimarTulia
janmrTelobis dacvis organoebis muSaobis efeqturobis
Semdgomi amaRlebisa da skolamdeli dawesebulebebis qselis
ganviTarebisaken.
mosaxleobis problemebis Seswavla Cvens qveyanaSi
socialur-ekonomikur gamokvlevaTa erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi
mimarTulebaa da amitom metad mniSvnelovania, rom Cveni
sazogadoebis yvela wevrs hqondes aucilebeli minimaluri
codna demografiuli movlenebis arsisa da maTi analizis
meTodebis, agreTve mosaxleobis ganviTarebis generaluri
tendenciebis Sesaxeb. swored am problemebs eZRvneba wignis
Semdgomi Tavebi.

9
ix.: Материалы XXVI съезда КПСС. М., 1981, с. 145.

19
 Tavi II
demografiuli analizis Sesaxeb

mosaxleobaSi mimdinare procesebis arsis gageba da

SemTxevavTa didi ricxvis safuZvelze maTi generaluri
kanonzomierebebis gamovlena demografiuli analizis
sxvadasxvagvar xerxebs moiTxovs. yoveldRiurad da yovel saaTs
qveyanaSi ibadebian da kvdebian adamianebi, formdeba qorwinebebi
da ganqorwinebebi, adamianebi icvlian TavianT sacxovrebel
adgils. magram, mxolod maTi saerTo ricxvis codna araa
sakmarisi mosaxleobaSi mimdinare procesebis arsis gagebisaTvis.
erTia, roca ojaxSi ibadeba pirveli da xSirad ukanaskneli
bavSvi, xolo sul sxvaa roca es aris mexuTe an meeqvse bavSvi.
erTbavSviani ojaxebis masobrivad gavrcelebas, rogorc es
Semdgom iqneba naCvenebi, iqamde mivyavarT, rom adamianTa Taobebi
ver ganaxldeba, mravalSviliani ojaxebis masobrivad
gavrcelebisa da dabali mokvdaobis pirobebSi mosaxleobis
matebis tempebi sagrZnoblad maRalia. erTi sityviT, saWiroa ara
marto SemTxvevaTa ricxvis, aramed maTi xarisxobrivi
maxasiaTeblebis codnac.
demografiuli SemTxvevebi ganawilebulia droSi, maTi
intensivoba adamianTa asakTan erTad icvleba da es saerTod
banaluri WeSmariteba, metad mniSvnelovania demografiuli
analizis principebisa da meTodebis SemuSavebisas. dabadebis
SemTxvevaTa ZiriTadi masa modis 15-dan 49 wlis asakamde
qalebze, e.i. e.w. bavSvTaSobis anu reproduqciuli asakis
kontingentze. es niSnavs, rom rac ufro metia mosaxleobaSi am
asakis qalebi, sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, miT ufro meti SeiZleba

20
iqnes dabadebaTaAricxvic. mokvdaobis intensivobas asakebis
mixedviT praqtikulad aqvs ori `piki:~ erT wlamde asakSi, roca
bavSvebis organizmi yvelaze ufro daucvelia, da ufros
asakebSi. aseTi magaliTebi SeiZleba bevri moviyvanoT, magram
daskvna axlave gasagebia _ demografiuli procesebi unda
SeviswavloT mosaxleobis asakobriv SemadgenlobasTan mWidro
kavSirSi.
demografiul SemTxvevaTa ricxvi, maTi struqtura
ganuwyvetliv icvleba droSi. ase magaliTad, Tu 1973 wels
qveyanaSi dabadebulTa saerTo ricxvidan (4 386 aTasi bavSvi),
rigiT meore bavSvebis wilad modioda 27,6%, xolo rigiT mesame
bavSvebis wilad ki 10,0%, ukve 1983 wels rigiT meore
dabadebulebma Seadgines dabadebulTa saerTo ricxvis 35,4%,
xolo mesameebma ki _ 11,5%. maSasadame, aucilebelia
demografiuli analizis iseTi meTodebis gamoyeneba, romlebic
saSualebas mogvcems gamovavlinoT mosaxleobaSi mimdinare
procesebis detaluri Taviseburebani, maTi struqturuli
maxasiaTeblebi.
aqedan gamomdinareobs demografiuli analizis
meTodebisadmi kidev erTi mniSvnelovani moTxovna _ maTi
dinamikaSi Sedarebis aucilebloba, maxasiaTeblebis wlidan
wlamde, erTi periodis meoresTan Sedareba, imisaTvis, rom
gamovavlinoT cvlilebaTa saerTo tendenciebi, mimdinare
procesTa generaluri kanonzomierebani.
demografiuli movlenebis Seswavlisas ar unda dagvaviwydes,
rom maTi cvlilebebis xasiaTi pirvel rigSi socialur-
ekonomikuri faqtorebiT ganisazRvreba, romelTa moqmedebasac
mosaxleobis sxvadasxva jgufebSi ganaTlebis, profesiisa da

21
erovnebebis mixedviT, sakuTari Taviseburebebi gaaCnia. amitom
mosaxleobis socialuri Semadgenlobis dinamika, da
mosaxleobaSi ama Tu im socialur-ekonomikuri principis
mixedviT gamoyofili calkeuli jgufebisadmi diferencirebuli
midgoma, analizis mniSvnelovan elements warmoadgens.
demografiul procesTa analizi mxolod didi pirobiTobiT
SeiZleba vawarmooT mTlianad mTeli mosaxleobisaTvis (anu
rogorc amboben `orive sqesisaTvis erTad~). aseTi midgoma metad
arazustia, rameTu mokvdaobis asakobrivi intensivoba da bevri
sxva procesic mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba qalebsa da vaJebSi.
vaJebisa da qalebisaTvis demografiul procesTa calk-calke
Seswavla _ maTi analizis warmatebis mniSvnelovani pirobaa.
demografiul procesTa analizisas saWiroa agreTve
gaviTvaliswinoT, rom isini mWidrod arian erTmaneTTan
dakavSirebulni _ Sobadoba da mokvdaoba, qorwineba da
ganqorwineba, migracia da Sobadoba. amitom Seswavlisas
yovelTvis gardauvalia realuri sinamdvilis garkveulwilad
gamartiveba.
naTqvamidan gamomdinareobs mniSvnelovani daskvna _
socialur-demografiuli SemTxvevebi ar SeiZleba gaizomos erTi
romelime `zemaCvenebliT.~ maTi sirTule da mravlferovneba
ganapirobebs demografiul procesTaAmaxasiaTeblebis sxvadasxva
kompleqsis gamoyenebas, amasTan swored kompleqsis, radganac
demografiuli analizis calkeul meTodTa analitikuri
SesaZleblobani yovelTvis SezRudulia, TiToeul maTgans
Tavisi Rirsebebi da naklovani mxareebi gaaCnia. mxolod erTi
maCveneblis dinamikaze damyarebulma demografiul procesTa
analizma, SeiZleba principulad araswor daskvnamde migviyvanos.

22
 saWiroa ganvasxvaoT sakuTriv demografiuli procesebi
(Sobadoba, mokvdaoba da sxva) rogorc calkeul movlenaTa
simravleebis erToblioba da sxvadasxva saxis maCveneblebi,
romelTa meSveobiTac SeiZleba am procesebis
kanonzomierebaTaAgamovlena.
SevCerdeT demografiuli analizis arsebuli meTodebis
principul safuZvlebze. isini mravali aTwleulebis
ganmavlobaSi iqmneboda da TavianTi istoria gaaCniaT, romelic
mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli rogorc mTlianad mecnierebis
ganviTarebasTan, aseve demografiul movlenaTa xasiaTis Sesaxeb
arsebuli monacemebis sazogadoebriv moTxovnasTan, mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis reJimis formirebaSi moZraobis ama Tu im saxis
rolTan.
ramdenime saukunis ganmavlobaSi Sobadobis stabiluri
maRali donisa da maRali mokvdaobis pirobebSi, SedarebiT
`mSvidi~ wlebi monacvleobda masobrivi epidemiebisAperiodebTan,
roca mosaxleobis mokvdaoba ramdenimejer izrdeboda.
sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, mokvdaoba iyo, rogorc statistikosebi
amboben, yvelaze ufro variabeluri procesi. amitom
demografiuli analizis pirveli meTodebi SemuSavebul iqna
mokvdaobis, rogorc yvelaze ufro dinamiuri procesis
dasaxasiaTeblad. demografiuli analizis erT-erTi yvelaze
ufro efeqturi meTodi, e.w. mokvdaobis cxrilebi (ufro zustad
ki maTi pirvelsaxe) gaiangariSa ingliselma statistikosma
j.grauntma (1620-1674), romelmac cnobili ekonomistis u.petis
xelSewyobiT 1662 wels moamzada da gamosca naSromi `bunebrivi
da politikuri SeniSvnebi mokvdaobis biuletenebis Sesaxeb.~ 10

10
misi namdvili dasaxeleba ufro vrcelia, rac im droisaTvis tipiuri iyo.

23
masSi pirvelad iyo gaangariSebuli maCveneblebi, romlebic
warmodegnas iZleoda inglisis dedaqalaqis mosaxleobis
asakobrivi mokvdaobis cvlilebaTaA Sesaxeb. demografiuli
analizis meTodTa SemuSavebaSi didi mniSvneloba hqonda iseTi
didi maTematikosebis Sromebs, rogorebic iyvnen l.eileri,
e.galei, p.laplasi da sxvebi.
axla gadavideT demografiuli procesebis xasiaTisa da
ganviTarebis tendenciaTa analizis Sesaxeb arsebuli meTodebis
dawvrilebiT ganxilvaze. maT ganxilvas daviwyebT meTodiT,
romelic pirobiTad SeiZleba gavaerTianoT cnebiT
`demografiuli koeficientebi.~ A

24
 demografiuli koeficientebi

demografiul movlenaTa ricxvi wlidan wlamde icvleba. Tu

1960 wels Cvens qveyanaSi gardaicvala 1 529 aTasi adamiani, ukve
1984 wels ki _ 2 962 adamiani, e.i. gardacvlilTa ricxvi 24 wlis
ganmavlobaSi 93,7%-iT gaizarda. SeiZleba Tu ara am monacemebis
safuZvelze vTqvaT. rom Cvens qveyanaSi mokvdaobis done
gaizarda TiTqmis 2-jer? aseTi varaudi ubralod araswori
iqneboda.
saqme is aris, rom ramdenime wlisaTvis gardacvlilTa
ricxvebis Sedarebisas, saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT am movlenis
warmomSobi erTobliobis moculobis cvlilebac, Cvens
SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis ricxvnoba, romelic 1960 wels 212,4
mln. kacidan, 1984 wlis dasawyisisaTvis _ 273,8 mln. kacamde, e.i.
28,9%-iT gaizarda.
amitom ufro zusti analizis pirveli etapi unda iyos
momxdar SemTxvevaTa (gardacvalebis, dabadebis da sxva) ricxvis
Sefardeba mosaxleobis im raodenobasTan, romlebmac isini (es
SemTxvevebi) warmoSva, Cvens SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxvTan.
magram aq saWiroa gavakeToT erTi dazusteba. unda
gvaxsovdes, rom monacemebi demografiul SemTxvevaTa ricxvis
Sesaxeb Cven yovelTvis gvaqvs drois raRac intervalisaTvis,
magaliTad, dabadebaTa an gardacvalebaTa ricxvi weliwadSi an
TveSi. rogorc statistikosebi amboben, es aris intervaluri
sidideebi. TviT mosaxleobis ricxovnoba ki, romelic
ganuwyvetliv icvleba, yovelTvis gamoiTvleba romeliRac
garkveuli momentisaTvis, magaliTad, ama Tu im wlis 1 ianvris

25
an 1 ivlisisaTvis. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba, statistikosebis gamoTqmiT, aris momenturi sidide.
amrigad, Tavisi arsiT isini Seudarebeli sidideebia.
magram Tu demografiuli SemTxvevebis ricxvs SevadarebT ara
ubralod mosaxleobis ricxvTan romelime garkveuli
TariRisaTvis, aramed mis saSualo wliur ricxvTan, e.i. drois
gansazRvruli intervalisaTvis, maSin es winaaRmdegoba moxsnili
iqneba. `saSualo wliuri mosaxleobis~ gaangariSebis umartivesi
meTodia ori momijnave wlis dasawyisisaTvis arsebuli
ricxvebis naxevarjamis gamoTvla. Tu gvaqvs mosaxleobis
ricxovnobis saSualo wliuri Sefaseba, ukve SeiZleba
SevadaroT ori intervaluri maCvenebeli _ momxdar SemTxvevaTa
ricxvi da is sawyisi erToblioba, romelmac es SemTxvevebi
warmoSva. axla moviyvanoT demografiuli koeficientebis
gaangariSebis arsis, rogorc mosaxleobaSi mimdinare procesebis
analizis xerxis, zogadi ganmarteba.
demografiul koeficientebSi Cven vigulisxmebT
demografiul SemTxvevaTaA (dabadebis, gardacvalebis,
migraciisa da sxva SemTxvevebis) wliur ricxvs am SemTxvevebis
gamomwvev saSualo mosaxleobis aTas sulze gaangariSebiT.11
am zogadi midgomidan gamomdinare, SeiZleba vaCvenoT
zogierTi im demografiuli koeficientis arsi da maTi
meTodologiuri SesaZleblobani, romlebic gamoiyeneba
demografiuli analizis praqtikaSi. 12 gavyofT ra qveyanaSi erTi
wlis ganmavlobaSi dabadebulTa ricxvs mTeli mosaxleobis
11
es maCvenebeli Teoriulad SesaZloa gaviangariSoT saSualod asi aTas, aTi aTas an erT
kaczec ki. demografiaSi isini tradiciulad iangariSeba 1000 kacze, anu, rogorc amboben
promilebSi (laTinuridan _ pro (ze), milles (aTasi)). procentisagan (%) gansxvavebiT es
sidide aRiniSneba niSniT _ %0.)
12
demografiuli koeficientebis gaangariSebis zogadi wesidan aris mxolod erTi
gamonaklisi _ e.w. bavSvTa mokvdaobis koeficienti. masze saubari gveqneba qvemoT.

26
saSualo wliur ricxvze (kidev erTxel vusvamT xazs, rom
mniSvnelSi aris mTeli mosaxleoba), miviRebT e.w. Sobadobis
zogad koeficients, anu, sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, dabadebaTa
ricxvs saSualod mTeli mosaxleobis yovel aTas sulze. ase
magaliTad, 1940 wels ssrk-Si saSualod mosaxleobis yovel
aTas sulze daibada 31,2 bavSvi, xolo 1984 wels ki _ 19,6 bavSvi,
anu, sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, 1984 wels Sobadobis zogadi
koeficienti iyo 19,6%0. zogjer am SemTxvevaSi amboben, rom
Sobadoba Seadgens amden da amden kacs mosaxleobis aTas sulze
(1984 wels _ 19,6-s). aseTive meTodiT SeiZleba viangariSoT ssrk-
is mosaxleobis mokvdaobis zogadi koeficientic, anu
gardacvlilTa ricxvi saSualo wliuri mosaxleobis yovel
aTas sulze. 1950 wels ssrk-is mosaxleobis mokvdaobis zogadi
koeficienti Seadgenda 9,7%0-s, xolo 1984 wels ki _ 10,8%0-s.
magram demografiul procesTa, mxolod zogadi
koeficientebis meSveobiT warmoebulma analizma, SeiZleba ara
marto arasruli, aramed zogjer ubralod SemTxvevaTa saeWvo
suraTi mogvces. ase magaliTad, 1970 wels somxeTis ssr-Si
mosaxleobis mokvdaobis zogadi koeficienti Seadgenda 5,1%0-s,
xolo estoneTis ssr-Si 11,1%0-s. TiTqosda, SeiZleba gakeTdes
daskvna, rom estoneTSi mokvdaobis done 2-jer da metad didia
vidre somxeTSi. sinamdvileSi es ase ar aris.
zemoT ukve iTqva demografiuli procesebis mWidro kavSirze
mosaxleobis asakobriv SemadgenlobasTan, maTi sixSiris
cvlilebaze adamianTa asakebTan damokidebulebaSi, xolo mTeli
mosaxleobis masStabiT ki ama Tu im asakobrivi jgufis
ricxovnobasTan. amrigad, rac ufro metia mosaxleobaSi
xandazmuli adamianebi, maSin asakobrivi mokvdaobis intensivobis

27
cvlilebis gareSec miT meti iqneba gardacvlilTa saerTo
ricxvi, da maSasadame, mokvdaobis zogadi koeficientic. rac
ufro metia qveyanaSi axalgazrdoba miT metia dabadebaTa
saerTo ricxvi, maSinac ki roca ucvlelia ojaxebis orientacia
bavSvebis ama Tu im ricxvze. maSasadame, gardacvalebisa da
dabadebis SemTxvevaTa saerTo ricxvebi da mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxvis dinamikac didadaa damokidebuli mosaxleobis
Camoyalibebuli asakobrivi struqturis specifikaze. amitom
roca qveyanaSi (an mis nawilSi) icvleba (izrdeba an mcirdeba)
dabadebaTa an gardacvalebaTa yovelwliuri ricxvi, es
srulebiTac ar iZleva kategoriuli mtkicebis safuZvels
ojaxis demografiuli qcevis Sesaxeb, an Sobadobis an
mokvdaobis intensivobis Semcirebis Taobaze. pirvel rigSi
saWiroa SevamowmoT, xom ar warmoadgens magaliTad dabadebis,
gardacvalebis, an qorwinebaTa ricxvis zrda mosaxleobis
asakobrivi Semadgenlobis cvlilebis, anu rogorc kidev amboben
mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqturis gavlenis Sedegs. magaliTad,
ssrk-Si 70-ian wlebSi dabadebaTaAricxvis zrda (1970 wels
daibada 4,2 mln. bavSvi, xolo 1984 wels ki _ 5,4 mln.)
mniSvnelovanwilad am faqtoris gavlenasTan iyo dakavSirebuli,
romelsac Tavisi arsiT mxolod epizoduri xasiaTi hqonda.
axla davubrundeT magaliTs somxeTsa da estoneTSi
mokvdaobis koeficientTa gansxvavebulobis Sesaxeb. Tu
SevadarebT 1970 wlis aRweriT miRebul mosaxleobis asakobrivi
struqturis monacemebs, davinaxavT, rom somxeTSi 60 wlisa da
met asakebSi iyvnen vaJebis 6,8% da qalebis 9,5%, xolo
estoneTSi vaJebis _ 11,9% da qalebis _ 20,8%. es niSnavs, rom
estoneTis mosaxleobaSi xandazmuli anu gardacvalebis maRali

28
riskis mqone adamianebis xvedriTi wili TiTqmis 2-jer meti iyo
vidre somxeTSi, ramac ganapiroba mokvdaobis zogad
koeficientSi arsebuli esoden paradoqsuli gansxvavebani. am
SemTxvevaSi demografebi amboben, rom mokvdaobis zogadi
koeficientis sidideze estoneTsa da somxeTSi gavlena iqonia
mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqturis specifikam.
SemTxvevaTaAricxvis SefardebiT saSualo wliur
mosaxleobasTan SeiZleba gaviangariSoT sxva demografiuli
SemTxvevebis,A magaliTad, qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis zogadi
koeficientebic. qorwinebis zogadi koeficienti yvelaze xSirad
iangariSeba, rogorc wlis ganmavlobaSi registrirebul
qorwinebaTa ricxvis Sefardeba, saSualod mosaxleobis yovel
aTas sulze. 1940 wels ssrk-Si is Seadgenda 6,3%0-s, xolo 1983
wels ki 10,4%0-s. ama Tu im wels registrirebul ganqorwinebaTa
ricxvi saSualod mosaxleobis yovel aTas sulze _ esaa
ganqorwinebis koeficienti, romelic 1983 wels ssrk-Si Seadgenda
3,5%0-s. amave sqemiT SeiZleba gamoviTvaloT mosaxleobis
Camosvlis (an wasvlis) koeficientic _ wlis ganmavlobaSi
mocemul dasaxlebul punqtSi registrirebul CamosulTa (an
wasulTa) ricxvi saSualod mosaxleobis yovel 1000 sulze.
axla SevCerdeT sakiTxze imis Sesaxeb, Tu ra sazRvrebSi
SeuZliaT varireba Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis zogad
koeficientebs. swori warmodgena am maCvenebelTa zomaze,
saSualebas mogvcems SevafasoT konkretuli gaangariSebisas
miRebuli maTi sidideebis saimedooba. am koeficientTa qveda
zRvari udris nuls. mosaxleobis didi jgufisaTvis es wminda
hipoTezuri varaudia. rac Seexeba maCvenebelTa zeda zRvars aq
saqme ufro rTuladaa.

29
 Sobadobis koeficientis maqsimalur sidided SeiZleba
miviRoT iseTi ricxvi, roca gaCenaTa ricxvis SeuzRudavobis
pirobebSi es maCvenebeli Seadgens daaxloebiT 45-55%0-s.
magaliTad, 1861-1865 wlebSi ruseTis evropul nawilSi, roca
praqtikulad ar xdeboda Sobadobis SezRudva, es maCvenebli
udrida 50,7%0-s, xolo 1896-1900 wlebSi ki _ 49,5%0-s.13
mokvdaobis zogadi koeficientisaTvis aseT `zeda zRvars~
warmoadgens misi is done, romelic mas hqonda maSin, roca
adamianebi jer kidev ver flobdnen mravali avadmyofobis
winaaRmdeg brZolis realur xerxebs da mokvdaoba e.w. `bunebriv
doneze~ iyo. masobrivi epidemiebis ar arsebobis wlebSi
mokvdaobis zogadi koeficienti TiTqmis 35,0%0-s Seadgenda,
xolo zogierT SemTxvevaSi 40-50%0-mdec aRwevda. ase magaliTad,
1861-1870 wlebSi evropul ruseTSi es maCvenebeli toli iyo 37%0-
is, xolo 1881-1890 wlebSi ki _ 35,5%0-is. es sidide (40%0-mde)
SeiZleba miviRoT mokvdaobis zogadi koeficientis mniSvnelobis
zeda zRvrad.
rogorc ukve aRiniSna, zogadi koeficientebis mTavari
naklia is, rom isini iangariSeba mTeli mosaxleobisaTvis,
romelSic calkeul asakobriv jgufTa xvedriTi wili SeiZleba
Zalian gansxvavdebodes. aqedan warmoiSva asakobrivi (anu kerZo)
demografiuli koeficientebis agebis idea, romelTa
gaangariSebisas, movlenaTaAricxvi, romelic SeemTxva garkveuli
asakis mosaxleobas, ufarddeba ara mTeli mosaxleobis saSualo
wliur ricxvs, aramed konkretuli asakobrivi jgufis
mosaxleobis raodenobas, romelic momxdari SemTxvevebisaTvis
warmoadgens amosaval erTobliobas.

13
ix.: Воспроизводство населения СССР /Под ред. А.Г.Вишневского и А.Г.Волкова, М., 1983, с. 133.

30
 maTi arsis gagebisaTvis moviyvanoT magaliTi Sobadobis
asakobriv koeficientebTan dakavSirebiT. biologiuri mizezebis
gamo Sobadobis ZiriTadi nawili modis 15-dan 49 wlamde asakis
qalebze. aqedan gamomdinareobs, rom Sobadobis asakobrivi
koeficientis gaangariSebisas pirvel nabijs unda warmoadgendes
im bavSvTa ricxvis gamoTvla, romlebic saSualod gaaCina 15-dan
49 wlamde asakis yovelma 1000 qalma. davarqvaT mas 15-dan 49
wlamde asakis qalTa Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficienti. 14 es
maCvenebeli gacilebiT naklebadaa damokidebuli mosaxleobis
asakobriv struqturaze, vidre Sobadobis zogadi koeficienti,
radganac misi gaangariSebisas ar gaiTvaliswineba qalTa is
asakobrivi kontingentebi (15 wlamde da 49 welze ufrosi),
romlebic praqtikulad aRar monawileoben bavSvTa SobaSi. 1958-
1959 wlebSi qalebis Sobadobis saerTo asakobrivi koeficienti
ssrk-Si Seadgenda 88,7%0-s, anu saSualod 15-dan 49 wlis asakamde
yovelma 1000 qalma am periodSi gaaCina 88,7 bavSvi. 1982-1983 w.w.
mTeli qveynisaTvis igi udrida 76,0%0-s, qveynis qalaqebisaTvis _
64,8%0-s, xolo soflebisaTvis _ 101,6%0-s.
magram am koeficientis sididec mniSvnelovnadaa
damokidebuli mosaxleobis Camoyalibebul asakobriv
struqturaze, radganac qalebSi Sobadobis intensivoba,
gansakuTrebiT ki mcireSviliani ojaxebis pirobebSi, asakTan
erTad mniSvnelovnad icvleba. yvelaze ufro maRalia igi 20-dan
29 wlamde asakis qalebSi, Semdeg ki iwyebs klebas. maSasadame,
rac ufro metia mosaxleobaSi axalgazrda qalebi,

14
am maCvenebels demografiul literaturaSi zogjer nayofierebis (anu fertilurobis)
koeficients uwodeben, rac arazustia, radganac nayofiereba unda gvesmodes, rogorc
organizmis potenciuri unari Sobadobisadmi, xolo Sobadoba ki rogorc _ am potenciuri
SesaZleblobebis realizaciis xarisxi. misi meore dasaxelebaa _ Sobadobis specialuri
koeficienti, romelic aseve ver gadmoscems am maCveneblis arss, rameTu masSi araferia
specifikuri, gansakuTrebuli.

31
gansakuTrebiT 20-dan 29 wlis asakebSi, miT ufro meti iqneba
dabadebaTa saerTo ricxvic.15
asakTan erTad arsebiTad icvleba mokvdaobis intensivobac.
demografiul literaturaSi, mokvdaobis zogad doneze
mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqturis gavlenis saCveneblad,
xSirad mohyavT aseTi magaliTi. 1930-1932 wlebSi inglisSi
gamoiTvales samRvdeloebisa (27,7%0) da mesangreveTa
(14,5%0)Amokvdaobis zogadi koeficientebi.
aseTi paradoqsuli Sedegebi (mesangreveTa mokvdaobis
maCvenebeli naklebia vidre samRvdeloebisa) ewinaaRmdegeba
mosaxleobis am ori jgufis Sromisa da cxovrebis pirobebs.
saqme is aris, rom Tu mesangreveni ZiriTadad axalgazrda da
saSualo asakis xalxia, samRvdeloebaSi ki xandazmuli
adamianebi sWarboben. ase magaliTad, 44 wlis asakamde iyo
mesangreveTaA65,9%, xolo samRvdeloebis ki mxolod 26,9%.
swored asakobrivi Semadgenlobis gansxvavebam gansazRvra
gansxvavebani maCvenebelTaAsidideSic.
aqedan SeiZleba gavakeToT daskvna, rom demografiuli
koeficientebi miT ufro zustia, rac viwroa asakobrivi
sazRvrebi maTi gaangariSebisas.
logikidan gamomdinare ufro zusti SeiZleba iyos is
demografiuli koeficientebi, romlebic gaangariSebulia
erTwliani asakobrivi jgufebisaTvis, magaliTad 15-16 wlis
qalebisaTvis da a.S. maTi gaangariSebis meTodi principSi igivea
rac sxva demografiuli koeficientebisaTvis. magram praqtikaSi

15
Teoriulad Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebi SeiZleba gamoiTvalos vaJebisTvisac.
sirTules warmoadgens bavSvTaSobis asakis zeda zRvaris dadgena, romelic pirobiTad,
ufro xSirad, miRebulia 60 wlis tolad.

32
maT sakmaod iSviaTad iTvlian, upirvles yovlisa informaciuli
siZneleebis gamo.
praqtikaSi yvelaze xSirad gavrcelebulia xuTwliani
asakobrivi jgufebis mixedviT gaangariSebuli demografiuli
koeficientebi. magaliTad, qalebSi Sobadobis asakobrivi
maCveneblebi iangariSeba Semdegi asakobrivi jgufebisaTvis 15-19;
20-24; 25-29; 30-34; 35-39; 40-44 da 45-49 weli.
mokvdaobis asakobrivi koeficientebic iangariSeba
xuTwliani intervalebiT, magram aqac aris Tavisi Taviseburebani.
cnobilia, rom vaJebisa da qalebis mokvdaobis asakobrivi
intensivoba erTi da igive asakobriv jgufebSic mniSvnelovnad
gansxvavdeba _ vaJebis mokvdaobis done yovelTvis metia, vidre
qalebisa. Tu 0-dan 4 wlamde asakis gogonebis mokvdaobis
koeficienti 1971-72 w.w., Seadgenda 6,0%0-s, biWebSi igi udrida
7,5%0-s, e.i. es maCveneblebi Seefardeba erTmaneTs rogorc 1:1,2-s;
20-dan 24 wlamde isini Seadgenda Sesabamisad 0,8 da 2,5%0-s, e.i.
1:3-s, xolo 65-dan 69 wlamde ki _ 20,2 da 40,5%0-s, proporcia iyo
1:2. aqedan gamomdinareobs, rom mokvdaobis asakobrivi
maCveneblebi vaJebisa da qalebisaTvis unda iangariSebodes cal-
calke.
magram xuTwliani asakobrivi jgufebis mixedviT
gaangariSebuli demografiuli koeficientebi, gansakuTrebiT ki
Sobadobisa, aseve damokidebulia mosaxleobis asakobrivi
struqturis specifikaze. daqorwinebisa da pirveli Svilis
gaCenis intensivoba xom Zalian cvalebadia axalgazrdebSi TviT
xuTwliani intervalebis SigniTac. magaliTad, Tanamedrove
pirobebSi igi yvelaze maRalia 23-24 wlis qalebSi. amitomac rac
ufro metia am asakis qalebi, miT meti iqneba Sobadobis

33
koeficienti 20-24 wlis asakebSi. amitom yvelaze zusti iqneboda
erTwliani asakobrivi jgufebisaTvis gaangariSebuli
demografiuli koeficientebi, magram informaciuli siZneleebis
gamo es yovelTvis ver xerxdeba
rogorc ukve aRvniSneT dabadebaTa, gardacvalebaTa da
qorwinebaTa wliuri ricxvi, da maSasadame, demografiul
koeficientTa sididec didadaa damokidebuli mosaxleobis
asakobrivi struqturis specifikasa da Tavad movlenaTa
intensivobaze. dabadebaTa ricxvi (an Sesabamisi SesworebiT
gardacvalebaTa da qorwinebaTa ricxvic) ori mdgenelis
variaciazea damokidebuli _ asakobriv struqturaze, e.i.
Sesabamisi asakobrivi jgufebis ricxovnobasa, da Sobadobis
asakobrivi koeficientebis sidideze, romelic gamoxatavs
demografiul movlenaTa intensivobis dones. dabadebaTa saerTo
ricxvi ki SeiZleba icvlebodes an asakobrivi struqturis
cvlilebisas (magaliTad, im axalgazrda qalebis ricxovnobis
Semcireba an gadideba, sadac Sobadobis done yvelaze maRalia),
an TviT asakobrivi koeficientebis cvlilebisas. magram Tu asea
es problema SeiZleba cota sxvagvarad davsvaT: rogori
iqneboda dabadebulTa saerTo ricxvi qveynis (an ori qveynis) or
gansxvavebul nawilSi, sadac Sobadobis asakobrivi
koeficientebi gansxvavebulia magram pirobiTad aRebulia
erTnairi, anu, sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, bavSvTaSobis asakis qalTa
standartuli ganawileba? rogorc demografebi amboben am
SemTxvevaSi Cven vastandartebT, e.i. vauninificirebT asakobriv
struqturas.16 am SemTxvevaSi dabadebulTa ricxvi, da maSasadame,

16
amitom msgavs gaangariSebebs demografiaSi uwodeben `standartizacias.~ gaangariSebis
teqnika dawvrilebiTaa gadmocemuli demografiis saxelmZRvaneloebSi (ix.: Основы
демографии. М., 1980, с. 85-89).

34
Sesabamisi gaangariSebis Semdeg zogadi koeficientebic, mxolod
Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebis xarjze iqneba
gansxvavebuli.
SesaZlebelia gaangariSebis meore, sapirispiro variantic _
mosaxleobis orive jgufisaTvis erTi da igive standartuli
asakobrivi koeficientebis SemTxvevaSi aiReba sxvadasxva
asakobrivi struqturebi. am SemTxvevaSi dabadebulTa ricxvebs
Soris gansxvaveba gviCvenebs mosaxleobis asakobrivi
Semadgenlobis diferenciaciis zemoqmedebis xarisxs.
maCvenebelTa `standartizaciis~ poziciidan aseTi midgoma
principSi SesaZlebelia yvela movlenisaTvis, sadac ki aris
asakobrivi struqtura da movlenis asakobrivi intensivoba.
magaliTad, SeiZleba gaviangariSoT mosaxleobis mokvdaobisa da
daavadebaTa, agreTve qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis
standartizebuli koeficientebi. es maCveneblebi SeiZleba
viangariSoT `arademografiuli~ movlenebisTvisac, magaliTad
viangariSoT cveTis Sedegad Carxebis mwyobridan gamosvlis
saerTo maCvenebeli maTi `asakobrivi Semadgenlobisa~ da
wliurad mwyobridan gamosvlis intensivobaze damokidebulebiT.
pirobiT magaliTze vaCvenoT aseTi saxis gaangariSebaTa
zogadi principebi. am mizniT viangariSoT qveyanaSi dabadebulTa
saerTo ricxvi Semdegi hipoTezebis safuZvelze:
1. 1969_1970 wels ssrk-is 15-49 wlis asakis qalTa Sobadobis
asakobrivi koeficientebis pirobebSi;
2. ssrk-is, 15-49 wlis qalTa realuri asakobrivi
struqturis pirobebSi;
3. qalTaA imave saerTo ricxovnobisas, rogoric ssrk-Si
faqtiurad iyo 1970 wels, magram 1970 wels uzbekeTis

35
 ssr-is soflad macxovrelebSi arsebuli asakobrivi
proporciebis ganawilebis mixedviT, e.i. axalgazrduli
asakobrivi struqturisas.
am gaangariSebaTa Sedegebi moyvanilia cxrili 1-Si.
cxrili 1
ssrk-is qalTa Sobadobis standartizebuli
maCveneblebis gaangariSeba
asakobrivi qalTaAfaq qalTaA Sobadobis dabadebaTa dabadebaTa
jgufebi, tiuri ricxvi asakobrivi ricxvi A ricxvi
(weli) saerTo uzbekeTis koeficient faqtiuri uzbekeTis
ricxvi soflis ebi ssrk-Si struqt. qalTaA
1970 wels, mosaxleobis 1969-1970w.w. pirobebSi struqt.
(aTasobiT). asakobrivi (%0) (aTasobiT). pirobebSi
struqturiT (aTasobiT).
(aTasobiT).
15-19 10 774 15 181 30,4 327 462
20-24 8 478 8 792 163,9 1 389 1 441
25-29 6 959 7 717 128,7 895 993
30-34 10 736 9 615 88,1 1 382 1 238
35-39 8 554 8 729 48,5 41,5 423
40-44 10 244 7 654 15,3 157 117
45-49 7 512 5 566 2,9 22 16
15-49 63 255 63 255 _ 4 587 4 690

amrigad, mxolod bavSvTaSobis asakSi myofi qalebis

ganawilebaSi arsebuli gansxvavebis xarjze dabadebaTa ricxvi
SeiZleboda gazrdiliyo 2,2%-iT (4 690 : 4 587). 15-49 wlis asakis
qalTa Sobadobis saangariSo koeficienti Sesabamisad iqneboda
72,5 da 74,1%0. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, kidev erTxel dasturdeba
debuleba imis Sesaxeb, rom axalgazrduli struqtura sxva

36
Tanabar pirobebSic ki xels uwyobs Sobadobis maCvenebelTaA
ricxvis zrdas.
standartizaciis, rogorc demografiuli analizis xerxis
gamoyenebisas saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT mocemuli xerxis
garkveuli xelovnuroba, romelic amaxinjebs movlenaTa realur
arss. mosaxleobis sxvadasxva jgufebisaTvis standartizaciis
gamoyenebisas yovelTvis dgeba problema, Tu romeli asakobrivi
struqtura avirCioT standartad da ratom maincdamainc is. aseT
SemTxvevaSi, praqtikaSi ufro xSirad iReben administraciulad
ufro maRali donis erTeulis struqturas, magaliTad rsfsr-s
olqisaTvis mTlianad rsfsr-s asakobriv struqturas, mokavSire
respublikebisaTvis _ qveynis asakobriv struqturas. magram aqac
pirobiTobis elementi mainc sakmaod maRali rCeba.
ukanasknel wlebSi mosaxleobis zrdis tempebze asakobrivi
struqturis gavlenis xarisxis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba
cneba `demografiuli zrdis potenciali.~ mosaxleobis e.w.,
stabilurobis Teoriis safuZvelze, romlis Sesaxebac qvemoT
gveqneba saubari, gaangariSebul maCvenebls didi analitikuri
mniSvneloba aqvs. misi arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom realuri
mosaxleobis asakobriv struqturas yovelTvis aqvs
disproporciebi, uTanabrobebi, rameTu socialur-ekonomikuri
faqtorebisa da sxvaTa, magaliTad, samxedro danakargebis
gavleniT, meryeobs dabadebaTa yovelwliuri ricxvi. idealSi,
mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqtura unda iyos swori da asakTan
erTad Tanabrad icvlebodes. droTa ganmavlobaSi Sobadobis
reJimis stabilizaciis SemTxvevaSi asakobrivi struqtura
SeiZleba gaswordes. magram im pirobebSic ki, roca Sobadobisa
da mokvdaobis asakobrivi intensivoba erTnairia mosaxleobis

37
ricxovnoba SeiZleba SedarebiT xangrZlivi drois ganmavlobaSi
mxolod asakobrivi struqturis disproporciis xarjze
izrdebodes.
mocemuli maCveneblis gamoTvlis meTodebi mocemulia
specialur literaturaSi, 17 magram gaangariSebebma aCvena, rom
ssrk-Si mTlianad zrdis potenciali 1958-1959 wlebSi Seadgenda
1,35-s, xolo 1969-1970 wlebSi ki _ 1,29-s. es niSnavs, rom mxolod
asakobrivi struqturis SesaZleblobebis xarjze mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba, ufro zustad ki, qalebis ricxvi SeiZleboda
gazrdiliyo 1958-1959 wlebSi 35%-iT, xolo 1969-1970 wlebSi 29%-
iT.
asakobrivi struqturis zemoqmedebis aseTi specifikis gageba
Zalian mniSvnelovania mosaxleobis grZelvadiani
prognozirebisas.
demografiul koeficientTa meTodi SeiZleba gamoyenebul
iqnes qorwinebis, ganqorwinebisa da migraciis procesTa
analizisTvisac. magram qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis procesebis
Seswavlisas, maTi gaangariSeba unda moxdes im asakobrivi
jgufebisaTvis, romlebSic SeiZleba am movlenebis registracia,
e.i., magaliTad, qorwinebisaTvis, rogorc wesi 18 wlidan.
migraciis koeficientebi iangariSeba am procesis yoveli
saxisaTvis cal-calke, e.i. calke mosaxleobis Camosvlisa da
wasvlis koeficientebi da migraciis SedegTa maCveneblebi
(mocemuli raionis an qalaqis mosaxleobis Camosvlisa da
wasvlis koeficientebs Soris sxvaoba). migraciis
ganmazogadebel maCveneblebs agreTve uwodeben migraciis
saldos koeficientebs an meqanikuri matebis koeficientebs.

17
ix.: Пирожков С.И. Демографические процессы и возрастная структура населения. М., 1976, с. 109-120.

38
 demografiul koeficientebs Soris, rogorc Tavisi
mniSvnelobiT, aseve gaangariSebis meTodebiTac gansakuTrebuli
adgili uWiravs CvilTa mokvdaobis, anu rogorc mas xSirad
uwodeben, bavSvTa mokvdaobis koeficients, romelic warmoadgens
erT wlamde asakis bavSvebis mokvdaobis sazoms. 18 pirveli wlis
ganmavlobaSi bavSvis moumagrebeli organizmi gansakuTrebiT
advilad ganicdis garemo pirobebis, pirvel rigSi ki sxvadasxva
saxis infeqciuri daavadebebis gavlenas. am periodSi
gansakuTrebiT didia ganviTarebis Tandayolili mankebiT
gamowveuli mokvdaoba. SesamCnevia bavSvis movlis xarisxi,
agreTve im cxovrebiseuli pirobebisa da sayofacxovrebo
tradiciebis gavlena, romlebic arsebobs ojaxsa da
sazogadoebaSi. sakmaod mniSvnelovania iseTi socialuri
faqtoris gavlena, rogoricaa kvalificiuri da xelmisawvdomi
samedicino daxmarebis drouli miReba.
meTodologiuri TvalsazrisiT CvilTa mokvdaobis
koeficientis gaangariSeba gansxvavdeba sxva demografiuli
koeficientebis gaangariSebis meTodebisagan. saqme is aris, rom
is sawyisi erToblioba, romelic `awarmoebs~ bavSvTa
gardacvalebis garkveul ricxvs (bavSvebi erTi wlis asakamde),
wlis ganmavlobaSi mTlinad axldeba. es niSnavs, rom
demografiul koeficientTa gaangariSebis Cveulebrivi xerxebi
(rogorc momxdar movlenaTa ricxvis Sefardeba am movlenis
gamomwvev saSualo wliur mosaxleobasTan), aq gamousadegaria.
amitom CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficienti pirvel miaxloebaSi
iangariSeba, rogorc erT wlamde asakSi gardacvlil bavSvTa

18
rogorc Cans, termini `CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficienti~ ufro zustad asaxavs am
maCveneblis arss, rameTu cnebas `bavSvebi~ sakmod ganusazRvruli asakobrivi sazRvrebi
aqvs, magram yovel SemTxvevaSi ufro farToa, vidre mxolod erTi wlis asakmde bavSvebi.

39
ricxvis Sefardeba amave wels dabadebulTa ricxvTan.
sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, koeficienti aris erT wlamde asakSi
gardacvlil bavSvTa ricxvi, saSualod amave asakis yovel 1000
dabadebulze.
praqtikaSi am maCvneblis gasaangariSeblad ufro zust
formulas iyeneben. saqme is aris, rom magaliTad, 1980 wels erT
wlamde asakSi gardacvlili bavSvebi, SeiZleba dabadebuliyvnen
rogorc 1980 wels, aseve wina _ 1979 welsac. amitom
gaangariSebaTaA arsebuli gamocdilebidan gamomdinare, erT
wlamde asakSi gardacvlil bavSvTa ricxvs yofen wina wels
1
dabadebulTa ricxvis –isa da saangariSo wels dabadebulTa
3
2
-is jamze.
3
ra sazRvrebSi SeiZleba icvlebodes es maCvenebeli? roca ar
arsebobda infeqciur daavadebebTan brZolis efeqturi
saSualebebi, mosaxleobis udides nawils ki cxovrebis Zalian
dabali done hqonda, CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficienti maRali iyo
da 250-270%0-s aRwevda, xolo rig SemTxvevebSi ki 400-500%0-s. jer
kidev 1913 wels mefis ruseTSi CvilTa mokvdaobis koeficienti
269%0-s Seadgenda, e.i. TiTqmis yoveli meoTxe dabadebuli erT
wlamde asaks ver aRwevda.
meore mxriv, praqtikulad sxvadasxva saxis infeqciebisagan
erT wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaobis sruli likvidaciisas, e.i.
roca bavSvebi am asakSi mxolod ganviTarebis Tandayolili
mankebiT kvdebian, es maCvenebeli SeiZleba iyos 8-9%0-is
farglebSi. esaa misi Tanamedrove realuri minimumi.

40
 mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis maCveneblebi
da demografiuli cxrilebiA

axla SevCerdeT or maCvenebelze, romlebic iZleva

Sobadobisa da garkveuli zomiT ki mTeli mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis ganzogadebul daxasiaTebas, da warmoadgens
Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebisagan warmoebul
maCveneblebs. saubaria e.w. Sobadobis jamur koeficientsa da
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis bruto-koeficientze. magram
winaswar aucilebelia yuradReba mivaqcioT Tanamedrove
demografiaSi gamoyenebul erT-erT ZiriTad meTodologiur
midgomas _ demografiul movlenaTa Seswavlis or SesaZlo
meTods, romlebmac miiRes realuri Taobis (sxvanairad _
sigrZivi analizis) meTodis da pirobiTi (anu hipoTezuri)
Taobis meTodis, anu ganivi analizis saxelwodeba.
erT-erT am midgomaTa arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom adamianTa
jgufebi gaerTianebulia raRac erTi an ramdenime saerTo niSnis
mixedviT, magaliTad dabadebis erTi da igive wliT.
demografiaSi erTi an ramdenime majgufebeli niSnis mixedviT
formirebul jgufs, uwodeben kohortas. ase magaliTad, 1910
wels dabadebul yvela adamians SeiZleba vuwodoT 1910 wels
dabadebulTa kohorta. 1950 wels dabadebulebi, romlebic
daqorwindnen 1970 wels, Seadgenen 1970 wels daqorwinebulTa
kohortas. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, realuri Taobis meTodis arsi,
romelzec axla gvaqvs saubari, imaSi mdgomareobs, rom
romelime saerTo niSnis mixedviT gaerTianebul adamianebSi
SeiZleba Tvalyuris gadevneba, Tu rogori intensivobiT
mimdinareobs wlebis ganmavlobaSi sxvadasxva demografiuli

41
SemTxvevebi. ase magaliTad, Tu gvaqvs dabadebis, gardacvalebisa
da qorwinebis aqtebi sxvadasxva wlebisaTvis, maSin SegviZlia
Tvali gavadevnoT Tu 1910 wels dabadebulTa saerTo ricxvidan
ramdeni gardaicvala sicocxlis pirvelsave wels, ramdeni
meore wels, am kohortidan ramdeni kaci daqorwinda 20 wlis
asakSi, 25 wlis asakSi da a.S.
am xerxs imitomac hqvia realuri Taobis meTodi, rom Cven
Tvals vadevnebT realurad arsebul adamianTa jgufebis
sicocxles. 19 igi saSualebas gvaZlevs miviRoT saintereso
cnobebi mosaxleobis sxvadasxva jgufis cxovrebis realur
istoriaze.
magram praqtikaSi meTodis gamoyenebas sirTuleebi xvdeba.
upirveles yovlisa mis gamosayeneblad saWiroa gvqondes
monacemebi (da sakmaod srulic) dabadebaTa, qorwinebaTa da
gardacvalebaTa dinamikis Sesaxeb sakmaod xangrZlivi
periodisaTvis, xolo aseTi cnobebi xSirad ar moipoveba. ssrk-
Si statistikuri aRricxva mTlianad mxolod didi samamulo
omis Semdeg iqna aRdgenili, da isic ara ucbad, rameTu omis
dros bevri arqivi ganadgurda.
imisaTvis rom realuri Taobis meTodiT demografiuli
procesebis Sesaxeb sruli cnobebi gvqondes, saWiroa Zalian
didxans lodini, radganac bavSvTaSobis procesi qalebSi
TiTqmis 50 wlis asakSi sruldeba, maSasadame, mxolod 2000
wlisaTvis SegveZleba miviRoT sruli monacemebi 1950 wels
dabadebul qalTa kohortis Sobadobis Sesaxeb. aseTi saxis
informacias ki ufro metad istoriuli faseuloba eqneba. am

19
am midgomas sxvagvarad kohortis, anu sigrZivi analizis meTods uwodeben, radganac Cven
adamianTa am jgufis sicocxles TiTqosda `gaswvriv~ mivyvebiT.

42
siZneleebma ganapiroba, rom Cveni saukunis (me-20 saukunis _ a.s.)
50-ian wlebamde mocemuli meTodi iSviaTad gamoiyeneboda.
demografiul analizSi misma gamoyenebam gansakuTrebuli
mniSvneloba SeiZina ojaxSi bavSvebis raodenobis SezRudvisa da
maTi gaCenis vadebis dagegmvis pirobebSi. amJamad ojaxebs
ZiriTadad gansazRvruli warmodgena aqvT ara marto imaze, Tu
ramdeni bavSvi unda iyolion da rodis, aramed imazec, Tu
ramdeni bavSvis yolaa `modaSi.~ Cvens droSi meuRleebi gegmaven
ara marto bavSvebis ricxvs, aramed drosac, daqorwinebidan
pirveli bavSvis gaCenamde (protogenetikuri intervali),
pirvelsa da meores, meoresa da mesames da Semdgomi rigiTobis
bavSvebis gaCenas Sorisac (intergenetikuri intervali). 20

Sobadobis aseTi `dagegvisas~ meuRleTaTvis sasurveli meore

Svili SeiZleba gaCndes pirvelis mere sami, xuTi an aTi wlis
Semdegac.21
magram gaCenaTa Soris intervalis sididis cvlilebam, anu,
rogorc demografebi amboben dabadebaTaAkalendris, `grafikis~
cvlilebam SeiZleba erTi SexedviT metad paradoqsul
movlenamde migviyvanos. xSirad ojaxebi sxvadasxva mizezis gamo
`ukeTes dromde~ ukan sweven meore Svilis gaCenas, romelic
mSoblebs undaT rom aucileblad hyavdeT. konkretuli ojaxis
mdgomareobis gaumjobesebisas meore Svilis yolis survili
aucileblad realizdeba da sabolood ojaxSi iqneba ori (an
sami) sasurveli, ase vTqvaT dagegmili bavSvi.22

20
roca Cven vlaparakobT daqorwinebaze, maSin, ra Tqma unda, mxedvelobaSi gvaqvs
Sesabamis saxelmwifo dawesebulebaSi misi registraciis TariRi.
21
rigi gamokvlevebis monacemebiT, saSualo intergenetikuri intervali Sobadobis
SeuzRudavobis pirobebSi daaxloebiT 34 Tves Seadgens (ix.: Сифман Р. И. Динамика
рождаемости в СССР. М., 1974, с. 157.)
22
cxovrebaSi isec xdeba, rom ojaxi ise didxans gadasdebs xolme meore an mesame Svilis
gaCenas, rom asakis gamo mere es gviandeba kidec.

43
 bolos da bolos ojaxuri gegmis `saboloo maCveneblebi~
Sesruldeba, da Svilianobis asakis bolos Taobas imdeni (an
TiTqmis imdeni) bavSvi eyoleba, ramdenic Tavdapirvelad iyo
dagegmili, magram maTi droSi ganawileba, da maSasadame,
gaCenaTaAwliuri ricxvic SesaZloa mniSvnelovnad varirebdes.
dabadebaTa Soris intervalebis cvlileba (gazrda an
Semcireba) iwvevs imas, rom ama Tu im wels dabadebaTa ricxvi
Seicvleba gaCenaTa ricxvis sxvaobis gamo. es niSnavs, rom
marTalia 50 wlisaTvis Sobadobis sabolo Sedegebi saSualod
ojaxebis mier dagegmil doneze iqneba, magram gaCenaTa
yovelwliuri ricxvi, da maSasadame, Sobadobis zogadi da
asakobrivi koeficientebic ki am Tu im wels SeiZleba
mniSvnelovnad iryeodes. amitom, roca qveyanaSi (an mis nawilSi)
Sobadobis asakobriv da gansakuTrebiT ki zogad koeficientTa
sidideebi icvleba, saWiroa gamovarkvioT, aris Tu ara igi
ojaxSi bavSvTa ricxvis gazrdisaken orientaciis Secvlis
Sedegi, e.i. bavSvTaSobis intensivobis cvlilebis Sedegi, Tu
Seicvala Sobadobis grafiki ojaxSi bavSvebis garkveul
raodenobaze orientaciis Seucvlelad, Tu Tavi iCina asakobrivi
struqturis gavlenam. aseTi analizi did Zalisxmevas moiTxovs,
magram mas SeuZlia bevri naCqarevi daskvna agvacilos Tavidan,
gansakuTrebiT ki mimdinare demografiuli politikis
efeqturobis Sefasebisas.
realuri Taobis meTodis informaciulma da zogierTi sxva
saxis siZneleebma ganapiroba demografiul procesTa
Seswavlisadmi sxvagvari midgomis gamoyenebis aucilebloba,
romelsac pirobiTi (anu hipoTezuri) Taobis meTodi anu ganivi
analizis meTodi ewodeba.

44
 dawvrilebiT SevCerdeT am midgomis principebze.
statistikuri informacia saSualebas iZleva, rom advilad
miviRoT monacemebi garkveuli periodisaTvis (erTi an ori weli)
asakobrivi maCveneblebis Sesaxeb, magaliTad, gaviangariSoT
vaJebis mokvdaobis koeficientebi 1980 wlisaTvis 0-dan erT
wlamde, erTidan or wlamde da ase Semdeg asakebisaTvis, e.i.
monacemebi TiToeul asakSi sxvadasxva asakis pirTa mokvdaobis
Sesaxeb, da maSasadame, monacemebi realuri Taobis Sesaxeb.
mokvdaobis procesTaA Seswavlisas mniSvnelovania Tvali
gavadevnoT Tu rogor mcirdeba (anu `amowydeba~) mokvdaobis
gavleniT garkveuli Taobis ricxovnoba. mosaxleobis
amowydomis procesisadmi Tvalis gadevneba TiToeuli realuri
Taobis sicocxlis Sesaxeb informaciis ar qonis pirobebSi
mxolod mniSvnelovani daSvebis safuZvelze SeiZleba. misi arsi
aris _ daSvebaSi, rom Sesaswavli Taobis mTeli sicocxlis
ganmavlobaSi im wlis mokvdaobis asakobrivi reJimi,
romlisTvisac mimdinareobs gaangariSeba, iqneba ucvleli.
Cven vuSvebT, rom magaliTad, 1978 wels dabadebulebs
sicocxlis pirvel wels mokvdaobis iseTive done eqnebaT,
romelic mosaxleobis am jgufs faqtiurad sicocxlis meore
wels hqonda. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, ukve 1977 wels
dabadebulTaTvis mokvdaobis iseTive reJims viRebT, romelic
hqondaT imaT vinc 1978 wels ori wlis iyo. sicocxlis mesame
wlisaTvis Cven kvlav ucvlelad vTvliT 1978 wels sami wlis
asakSi myofTa, e.i. 1976 wels dabadebulTa mokvdaobis reJims.
maSasadame, mokvdaobis asakobrivi reJimis ucvlelobis
hipoTezis safuZvelze, Tu gvaqvs ucvleli mokvdaobis
asakobrivi maCveneblebis aseTi saxis sruli mwkrivi, Cven

45
TiTqosda asakobrivi `agurebisagan~ vamontaJebT xelovnur
Taobas. aseTi Taobis formirebis arsma da modelurma xasiaTma
ganapiroba midgomis saxelwodebasac _ pirobiTi, anu hipoTezuri
Taobis meTodi.
mis ZiriTad Rirsebas warmoadgens informaciuli
uzrunvelyofis SedarebiTi siadvile. misi gamoyenebisaTvis
saWiroa sxvadasxva Taobis mokvdaobis asakobrivi monacemebi
mxolod erTi an ori wlisaTvis, da ara mravali wlis
monacemebi, rogorc realuri Taobis meTodis SemTxvevaSi. amave
dros aseTi Taobis formirebisas miRebuli daSveba mTeli
Taobis ganmavlobaSi _ mokvdaobis (an Sobadobis) reJimis
ucvlelobis Sesaxeb _ sakmaod pirobiTia. praqtikaSi es niSnavs,
Tu gavixsenebT Cvens magaliTs 1978 wels dabadebulebis Sesaxeb,
vnaxavT, rom magaliTad 60 wlis asakianebisTvis Cven viRebT
pirobiTad im maCvenebels, romelic 1978 wels faqtiurad hqonda
1918 wels dabadebulebs. magram 1978 wels dabadebulni 60 wlis
asaks miaRweven 2038 wels, xolo am xnis ganmavlobaSi cxovrebis
pirobebica da samedicino momsaxurebis donec mniSvnelovnad
Seicvleba.
realuri da pirobiTi Taobis meTodi SeiZleba gamoyenebul
iqnes nebismieri demografiuli procesis Sesaswavlad. TiToeul
am midgomas Tavisi Rirsebebi da naklovanebebi aqvs, rac kidev
erTxel adasturebs demografiuli procesebis Seswavlisas maTi
kompleqsurad gamoyenebis aucileblobas.
axla SeiZleba davubrundeT ganmazogadebeli demografiuli
koeficientebis problemis ganxilvas, maT Soris Sobadobis
sferoSic. Tu gvaqvs garkveuli periodisaTvis qalebis
Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebis nakrebi, SeiZleba

46
viangariSoT, im varaudiT, rom Tu Sobadobis Tanamedrove
asakobrivi reJimi ar icvleba, ramdeni bavSvi Cndeba saSualod
15-dan 49 wlamde bavSvTaSobis asakis erT qalze. am maCvenebels
ewodeba Sobadobis jamuri koeficienti.
mis gamosaTvlelead saWiroa SevajamoT Sobadobis
asakobrivi koeficientebis sidideebi (promilebSi). Tu es
maCveneblebi gaangariSebulia saSualod xuTwliani asakobrivi
jgufebisaTvis, maSin miRebuli Sedegi unda gavavravloT xuTze,
rameTu TiToeuli xuTwliani koeficienti aris saSualo sidide
xuTwliani intervalisaTvis.
Tu f x -iT aRvniSnavT 15-dan 49 wlis asakamde qalTa
Sobadobis asakobriv koeficientebs xuTwliani jgufebisaTvis,
xolo K .saS. -iT Sobadobis jamur koeficients, maSin zogadi saxiT
Sobadobis jamuri koeficientis formula SeiZleba
Semdegnairad CavweroT:
49
K saS.  5 f x
15

Tu am maCvnebels gamoviTvliT mTeli ssrk-is qalebisaTvis

xuTwliani asakobrivi jgufebis asakobrivi koeficientebis
gamoyenebiT 1982-1983 wlebSi, is toli iqneba 2367,0-is. es niSnavs,
rom 1982-1983 wels 15-dan 49 wlamde asakis erT qalze
gaangariSebiT ibadeboda 2,4 bavSvi. SedarebisaTvis aRvniSnavT,
rom 1926-1927 wlebSi es maCvenebli Seadgenda 5,4-s.
Sobadobis jamuri koeficientis rogorc asakobrivi
koeficientebis jamis Sedgenis idea SeiZleba gamoviyenoT sxva
demografiuli movlenebis analogiuri maCveneblebis
gasaangariSebladac. ase magaliTad, Tu cnobilia qorwinebis
asakobrivi koeficientebi, maSin SeiZleba gamoviangariSoT

47
qorwinebis jamuri koeficienti, romelic gviCvenebs Tu rogori
iqneba mocemul (realur an pirobiT) TaobaSi daqorwinebaTa
saSualo ricxvi erTi adamianis sicocxlis ganmavlobaSi.
m.s.tolcis gaangariSebiT 1896-1897 wlebSi es maCvenebeli
Seadgenda vaJebisaTvis 1,19 da qalebisaTvis 0,98, xolo 1969-1970
wlebSi igi gaizarda vaJebSi 1,52-mde, xolo qalebSi 1,32-mde. am
maCveneblis zrda didadaa ganpirobebuli ganmeorebiTi
qorwinebis sixSiris zdriT.
amave principuli sqemiT SeiZleba gamovTvaloT
ganqorwninebis jamuri koeficientebic, romelebic gviCvenebs
ganqorwinebaTa saSualo ricxvs erTi adamianis sicocxlis
ganmavlobaSi. 1969-1970 wlebSi es maCvenebeli udrida 0,43
vaJebisaTvis da 0,37 qalebisaTvis, e.i. maT Soris gansxvaveba didi
ar iyo.
kvlav davubrundeT Sobadobis jamuri koeficientis arss.
SegaxsenebT, rom 1982-1983 wlebSi am maCveneblis sidide iyo 2,4,
rac gviCvenebs bavSvTaSobis asakis TiToeul qalze dabadebuli
biWebisa da gogonebis saSualo ricxvs. Cven ki gvinda vicodeT,
Tu am pirobiT TaobaSi ramdeni gogona mova TavinTi dedebis
Sesacvlelad, magaliTad 1982-1983 wlis Sobadobis done ra
zomiT uzrunvelyofs dedaTaATaobis gogonaTa TaobiT
`Secvlas.~ gavixsenoT axla, rom saSualod 1000 gaCenidan 480-490
SemTxvevaSi ibadeba gogona.23
Tu Cvens gaangariSebaSi am xvedriT wils 48,5%-is tolad
miviRebT da mas Sobadobis jamur koeficientze gavamravlebT,
maSin miviRebT mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis axal da Tavisi
arsiT ganmazogadoebel maCvenebels _ e.w mosaxleobis
23
SobadobaSi am proporciis mizezebsa da maT Sedegebze ix.: Бедный М.С. Мальчик или девочка?
М., 1980.

48
kvlavwarmoebis bruto koeficients. igi gvCvenebs Tu pirobiT
TaobaSi 15-dan 49 wlis asakSi myof TiToeul qalze saSualod
ramdeni gogona gaCndeba. Tu mas Rbr. -iT aRvniSnavT, xolo
dabadebulTa Soris gogonaTaAxvedriT wils ki  -Ti, maSin
bruto koeficientis formulas eqneba Semdegi saxe:
49
Rbr.   5 f x
15

arsebuli gaangariSebis Tanaxmad, ssrk-Tvis mosaxleobis

kvlavwarmoebis bruto koeficienti 1926-1927 wlebSi Seadgenda
2,60, 1960-1970 wlebSi – 1,16–s, xolo 1982-1983 wlebSi ki _ 1,18-s.
SedarebisTvis aRvniSnavT, rom SveciaSi 1980 wels es maCvenebeli
Seadgenda 0,79, gfr-Si 1978 wels – 0,67-s, iordaniaSi 1977 wels –
3,04 –s, singapurSi (1979 wels) – 0,89-s, iaponiaSi (1980 wels) –
0,85-s, liviaSi (1975-1979 wlebSi) _ 3,58-s da aSS-Si (1979 wels) –
0,90-s.
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis bruto koeficientis sidide
mniSvnelovanwilad metyvelebs mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis
Camoyalibebul tipze. magaliTad, miCneulia, rom Tu qalebi 15
wlis asakSi qorwindebian da kargi janmrTelobis pirobebSi
Sobadobas ar zRudaven da qorwinebaSi 50 wlis asakamde
imyofebian, maSin Sobadobis aseTi reJimis pirobebSi maT
maqsimum SeiZleba hyavdeT saSualod aTi bavSvi, 24 maSasadame,
bruto koeficientis maqsimaluri sidide Seadgens daaxloebiT
4,9-s. praqtikulad ki imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom qalebis udidesi
nawili 15 wlisaze ufros asakSi qorwindeba, Sobadobis
SeuzRudavobis pirobebSic ki am maCveneblis praqtikuli
maqsimumi 3,0-dan 3,5-mde meryeobs. ase magaliTad, 1896-1897 wlebSi

24
SevniSnavT, rom laparakia aTi Svilis gaCenaze, xolo maTgan ramdeni darCeba cocxali,
es sxva sakiTxia.

49
es maCvenebeli evropuli ruseTisaTvis Seadgenda 3,4-s, ukrainaSi
ki _ 3,6-s.
axla aRvniSnoT is meTodologiuri SezRudvebi, romlebic
am maCvneblis gamoyenebisas unda gaviTvaliswinoT. kidev erTxel
SegaxsenebT, rom igi gviCvenebs, Tu ramdeni gogona daibadeba
saSualod bavSvTaSobis asakis erT qalze. magram dabadebul
bavSvTagan yvela ver cocxlobs, gansakuTrebiT warsulSi, roca
sicocxlis pirvel wels kvdeboda axalSobilTa meoTxedi,
xolo 20 wlamde ki mxolod maTi naxevari aRwevda. maSasadame,
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis arsebuli reJimis srulad
dasaxasiaTeblad aucilebelia bruto koeficientSi SevitanoT
Sesworeba mokvdaobaze, e.i. gaviangariSoT ara marto is Tu
ramdeni gogona daibadeba saSualod erT bavSvTaSobis asakis
qalze, aramed ramdeni miaRwvs am TaobaSi Sobadobis dawyebis
Semdgom saSualo asakamde. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, saWiroa
gaviTvaliswinoT mokvdaobis gavlena.
aseTi Sesworebis Setana mokvdaobis koeficientebis
daxmarebiT rTulia, radganac maTi sidide damokidebulia
mosaxleobis Camoyalibebul asakobriv struqturaze. amitom
saWiroa vipovoT demografiul, Cvens SemTxvevaSi ki mokvdaobis
maCvenebelTa iseTi sistema, romlis sididec ar iqneboda
damokidebuli mosaxleobis faqtiur asakobriv struqturaze,
demografiul SemTxvevaTaA yovelwliuri ricxvis meryeobaze, e.i.
romelime demografiuli procesis asakobrivi intensivobis
cvlilebas daaxasiaTebda `sufTa~ saxiT. maCvenebelTa am
sistemam miiRo pirobiTi dasaxeleba `demografiuli cxrilebi.~
farTo praqtikaSi, analizis am meTods akavSireben e.w.
mokvdaobisa da mosalodneli sicocxlis saSualo

50
xangrZlivobis cxrilebis, anu sxvagvarad, garkveul asakamde
miRwevis cxrilebis 25 agebasTan. es srulebiTac ar aris
SemTxvevis saqme, aramed dakavSirebulia imasTan, rom XVIII
saukunis bolomde Sobadoba yvela qveyanaSi praqtikulad
ucvlelad maRali iyo, xolo mokvdaobis done, gansakuTrebiT ki
epidemiebis periodSi, xSirad icvleboda. amitomac im
specialistebis yuradReba, romlebic mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa
da Sedgenilobis cvlilebaTa procesebs swavlobdnen, pirvel
rigSi mosaxleobis mokvdaobis Seswavlisaken iyo mimarTuli.
am cxrilebs gaangariSebis safuZvlad udevs ramdenime
sawyisi debuleba. maT Soris pirveli imaSi mdgomareobs, rom
mokvdaobis procesis gavleniT cvalebadi mosaxleobis
Tavdapirveli erTobliobis ricxovnoba mudmivia. maSasadame,
ivaraudeba, rom Sesaswavl mosaxleobaSi ibadeba yovelTvis
bavSvebis erTi da igive raodenoba, magaliTad 100 an 10 aTasi. es
debuleba saSualebas gvaZlevs aRmovfxvraT Sobadobis
yovelwliuri ricxvis meryeobis zegavlena.
meore daSvebaa _ migraciis sruli ar arseboba, anu rogorc
zogjer demografebi amboben `mosaxleoba Caketilia.~ amitom
aseTi saxis daSvebisas mosaxleobis ricxovnoba erTi asakidan
meore asakamde mxolod erTi procesis, Cvens SemTxvevaSi
mokvdaobis gavleniT icvleba. demografiuli cxrilebis
agebisaTvis Semdegi mniSvnelovani pirobaa is, rom isini
SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes mxolod iseTi movlenebisaTvis,
romlebTac Seuqcevadi anu alternatiuli xasiaTi aqvT, e.i.
romlebic garkveul asakSi mxolod erTxel SeiZleba moxdes (an
ar moxdes). magaliTad, garkveuli asakis ganmavlobaSi adamiani

25
gadmocemis gamartivebis mizniT SemdgomSi maT ubralod vuwodebT mokvdaobis cxrilebs.

51
an darCeba cocxali an mokvdeba. wlis ganmavlobaSi SeiZleba
pirvelad daqorwinde an ar daqorwinde, gaaCino an ar gaaCino
pirveli bavSvi. maSasadame, principSi SeiZleba gaviangariSoT
demografiuli cxrilebi Sobadobisa da qorwinebisTvisac.
magram magaliTad filtvebis anTebiT an bronqitiT wlis
ganmavlobaSi avadmyofi SeiZleba ara erTxel daavaddes da
amitom aseTi cxrilis ageba aramarTlzomieria.
axla mokvdaobis cxrilis magaliTze vaCvenoT aseTi saxis
agebis gaangariSebisa da gamoyenebis logika. davuSvaT, rom
gansazRvrul wels (magaliTad 1980 wels) qveyanaSi daibada 100
aTasi bavSvi. erTi wlis mere axalSobilTa es ricxvi
Semcirdeba, radgan erT wlamde miaRwevs Tavdapirveli
erTobliobis raRac nawili. Tavis mxriv, erTidan or wlamde
asakSi erTi wlis asakamde miRweulTa ricxvi kidev Semcirdeba,
am asakobriv intervalSi gardacvlilTa xarjze. Sedegad
miviRebT ricxvTa mwkrivs, romelic gviCvenebs, Tu rogor
icvleba Tavdapirveli erToblioba, Cvens SemTxevvaSi 100 aTasi
axalSobili, mxolod mokvdaobis procesis gavleniT, radganac
miRebuli daSvebis Tanaxmad migracias adgili ara aqvs, xolo
sawyisi erTobliobis (dabadebulTa ricxvi) sidide mudmivia.
asakis zrdasTan erTad klebadi dabadebulTa es
Tavdapirveli ricxvi, rogorc wesi aRiniSneba l x simboloTi da
ewodeba x -wlis asakamde miRweulTa ricxvi. maSasadame, sawyisi
erToblioba SeiZleba aRiniSnos rogorc l 0 , erTi wlis asakamde
miRweulTa ricxvi _ l1 , or wlamde _ l 2 -iT da a.S.
Tu gvaqvs l 0 , l1 , l 2 ricxvTa mwkrivi SegviZlia viangariSoT, Tu
garkveul asakamde (magaliTad erT wlamde) miRweulTa ra wili
miaRwevs ori wlis asakamde, e.i. SevufardoT erTmaneTs

52
garkveul asakamde miRweulTa Sesabamisi ricxvebi, magaliTad
erTi da ori wlis asakamde miRweulTa ricxvebi, anu, sxvagvarad
l 2 95526
rom vTqvaT, l1 da l 2 Cvens SemTxevvaSi    0,99173 . esaa
l1 96323

maCvenebeli, romelsac pirobiTad ewodeba albaToba imisa, rom

bavSvi (adamiani) miaRwevs erTi wlidan ori wlis asakamde da
aRiniSneba rogorc p 2 , xolo zogadi saxiT ki _ rogorc px .

imis gamo, rom misi sidide mokvdaobis procesis intensivobis

cvlilebasTan erTad icvleba, amitom es maCvenebeli SeiZleba
ganvixiloT, rogorc qveyanaSi mokvdaobis arsebuli reJimis
pirobebSi mosaxleobis cocxlad darCenis asakobrivi
maxasiaTebeli.
cnobilia, rom wlis ganmavlobaSi esa Tu is adamianebi
darCebian cocxlebi an mokvdebian, e.i. SemTxvevebs aqvT
alternatiuli xasiaTi. maSasadame, SeiZleba miviCnioT, rom
cocxlad darCenis albaToba p x da azrobrivad sapirispiro
maCvenebeli gardacvalebis albaToba ( x asakisaTvis es sidide
aRvniSnoT q x -iT) jamSi udris erTs:
px  qx  1

aqedan qx  1  px

anu sxvagvarad, zogadi saxiT:

l x  l x 1
qx 
lx

Cvens SemTxvevaSi (ix. cxrili 2.)

96323  95526
q1   0,00827
96323

53
 cxrili 2.
amonaweri 1958-1959 wlebis ssrk-is qalTaAmokvdaobisa da
sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobis cxrilebidan
asaki garkveul gardacvalebis gansazRvrul cocxladmyofTa mosalodne
asakamde albaToba asakamde ricxvi li
miRweulTaA cocxlad sicocxlis
ricxvi darCenis saSualo
albaToba xangrZliv
oba
0 100 000 0,03677 0,96323 97 558 71,68
1 96 323 0,00827 0,99173 95 173 73,40
2 95 526 0,00372 0,99628 95 280 73,01
3 95 171 0,00217 0,00783 95 031 72,20

p x da q x maCvenebelTa dinamika saSualebas gvaZlevs miviRoT

mokvdaobis procesis intensivobis cvlilebis sakmarisi suraTi,

sxva faqtorebis gavlenisagan damoukideblad.
ase magaliTad, 1896-1897 wlebSi evropuli ruseTis 50
guberniis qalebis maCvenebeli p4  0.74200 , xolo 1926-1927 wlebSi
ssrk-is evropuli nawilis qalebSi p4  0.98905 , 1968-1971 wlebSi

sabWoTa qalebisaTvis p4  0.99931 . rogorc vxedavT oTxidan xuT

wlamde asakSi gogonebis cocxlad darCenis albaToba sakmaod
mniSvnelovnad gaizarda, e.i. Sesabamisad Semcirda mokvdaobis
intensivobac.
axla ganvagrZoT saubari mokvdaobis cxrilis ZiriTad
maCveneblebze. 26 faqtiurad lx sididis gaangariSebisas
igulisxmeba, rom TiToeul asakobriv jgufSi adamianTa
garkveuli ricxvi maSinve kvdeba rogorc ki Sesabamisi

26
mokvdaobis sruli cxrilebi Seicavs kidev ramdenime sxva maCvenebelsac, romlebic Cven
aq ar mogvaqvs mkiTxvelTa drois ekonomiis mizniT.

54
intervalis sazRvrebs miaRwevs. sinamdvileSi ki es procesi
ganuwyvetliv, mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi mimdinareobs da amitom
Cven gvinda vicodeT Tu saSualod ramdeni adamiani cocxlobs
magaliTad, xuTidan eqvs wlamde intervalSi. am mizniT
mokvdaobis cxrilSi gamoiangariSeba specialuri maCvenebeli L x _
garkveul asakobriv intervalSi mcxovrebTa saSualo ricxvi,
magaliTad xuTidan eqvs wlamde asakSi. es maCvenebeli aRiniSneba
l x  l x 1
L x simboloTi da iangariSeba rogorc L , anu Cvens
2
l1  l 2
SemTxvevaSi: L5  . aseT ricxvTa mwkrivic mosaxleobis
2
amowydomis reJimis maxasiaTebels warmoadgens, radganac, rac
ufro naklebia mokvdaoba, miT metia cocxlebis ricxvi ama Tu
im asakobriv intervalSi.27
wavideT Semdgom. Tu am maxasiaTeblTa momdevno sidides
gavyofT winaze, e.i. magaliTad, Lx 1 -s L x -ze, maSin SeiZleba
gamoviTvaloT im adamianTaAxvedriTi wili, romlebic darCebian
cocxlebi am asakobriv intervalSi. ssrk-is 1958-1959 wlis qalTa
mokvdaobis cxrilis mixedviT es maCvenebeli ori wlis
L3 95280
asakebisaTvis toli iyo   0,99476 . igi farTod gamoiyeneba
L2 95782

demografiul procesTa analizSi, iwodeba `gadawevis

koeficientad,~ da aRiniSneba mTavruli aso Px -iT, gansxvavebiT
garkveul asakamde miRwevis albaTobisa, romelic aRiniSneba
patara p x asoTi.

27
L x -is gamoTvlis ufro rTuli xerxi gamoiyeneba, da amitom es maCveneblebi,
praqtikaSi
romlebic gaangariSebulia rogorc l x da l x 1 -TaAnaxevarjami SeiZleba umniSvnelod
gansxvavdebodes cxrili 2-is monacemebisagan.

55
 zemoT moyvanili maCveneblebi sxvadasxva mxridan axasiaTebs
mosaxleobis amowydomis process, Cven ki sasurvelia gvqondes
mTeli procesis ganmazogadebeli maxasiaTebeli. es aris swored,
literaturaSi xSirad gamoyenebuli sicocxlis xangrZlivobis
maCvenebeli dabadebisas. misi maxasiaTebeli warmoadgens
mosaxleobis gadarCenis kompleqsur maCvenebels, da amaSia
swored misi mniSvneloba. imisaTvis, rom misi gaangariSebis arsi
gavigoT, warmovidginoT, rom mokvdaobis cxrili iangariSeba im
varaudiT, rom mis sawyis doned aRebulia erTiani, e.i. l0  1
rac Teoriulad savsebiT SesaZlebelia. magram maSin L0 da L1
(ix. cxrili 2) Sesabamisad toli iqneba 0,98 da 0,96-is da
gviCvenebs wlebis im ricxvs, romelsac saSualod icocxlebs
adamiani nulidan erT wlamde, erTidan oramde da a.S. asakis
intervalSi. maSasadame, Tu Cven SevkribavT yvela erTianze
gadaangariSebul Lx maCvenebels, maSin swored es iqneba
dabadebisas sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivoba,
romelic aRiniSneba rogorc e0 . zogadi saxiT es SeiZleba

CavweroT rogorc e0   Lx , sadac x , rogorc wesi tolia 100
0

wlis, radganac am asakis zeviT Zalian cota xalxiRa cocxlobs.

axla mivmarToT am maCveneblis dinamikas Cvens qveyanaSi
(cxrili 3), rameTu igi warmoadgens ara marto medicinis
warmatebebis, aramed sazogadoebis socialuri progresis
maxasiaTebelsac. 100 wlis (1838-1939 w.w.) ganmavlobaSi, vaJebisa
da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivoba gaizarda 2-jer,
gansakuTrebiT swrafad izdeboda es maCvenebeli revoluciis
Semdgom.

56
 sagulisxmoa, rom XIX saukunis bolodan izrdeba sxvaoba
vaJebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobaSi, romelmac 1968-
1971 wlebSi TiTqmis cxra wels miaRwia.
vaJebisa da qalebis sicocxlis xangrZlivobebs Soris
sxvaoba ara marto biologiuri faqtorebiT aris ganpirobebuli,
romelTa xarjzec aseTi sxvaobis mxolod oTxi-xuTi weli
SeiZleba vivaraudoT. sxvaobis danarCeni oTxi-xuTi weli ki sxva
cxrili 3.
dabadebisas mosalodneli sicocxlis saSualo
xangrZlivobis dinamika ruseTisa da ssrk-is mosaxleobaSi
(wlobiT)
qalebisa da vaJebis
sicocxlis
wlebi vaJebi qalebi
xangrZlivobebs Soris
sxvaoba
1838-1850 (Sefaseba evropuli
ruseTisaTvis) 24,60 27,00 +2,40
1874-1883 (Sefaseba evropuli
ruseTisaTvis) 28,00 30,20 +2,20
1896-1897 (evropuli ruseTis
50 guberniisaTvis) 31,43 33,36 +1,93
1926-1927 (ssrk-is evropuli
nawili) 41,93 46,79 +4,86
1938-1939 44,00 50,00 +6,00
1958-1959 64,42 71,68 +7,26
1968-1971 64,56 73,53 +8,97

specifikuri faqtorebis moqmedebiT aris gamowveuli. ase

magaliTad, axla ufros asakebSi Sesvlas iwyeben is adamianebi,
romlebic aqtiurad monawileobdnen did samamulo omSi, rasac

57
ar SeiZleboda, rom maT janmrTelobaze ar emoqmeda. aris am
movlenis sxva mizezebic.
am maCveneblis sididis Sefasebisas saWiroa gvaxsovdes, rom
es sidide ufro xSirad iangariSeba pirobiTi Taobis meTodiT,
e.i. im hipoTezis safuZvelze, rom hipoTezuri Taobis mTeli
cxovrebis ganmavlobaSi yvela asakSi SenarCunebuli iqneba
mokvdaobis is reJimi, romelic iyo saangariSo 1968-1971 wlebis
periodSi. radganac, mokvdaobis asakobrivi maCveneblebi,
marTalia sxvadasxva tempebiT, magram mainc yovelTvis icvleba,
amitom sicocxlis xangrZlivobis faqtiuri sidide iqneba
gansxvavebuli. ukanasknel wlebSi daiwyes sicocxlis
xangrZlivobis maCveneblis gaangariSeba realuri
TaobebisTvisac, romelic gasagebi mizezebis gamo ufro maRalia,
vidre pirobiTi Taobis meTodiT gaangariSebisas.28
mokvdaobis cxrilebSi sicocxlis xangrZlivoba SeiZleba
gamoangariSebul iqnes sxva asakebisTvisac ( e x ), rac saSualebas
iZleva gamovavlinoT Tu romeli asakobrivi jgufebis xarjze
izrdeba sicocxlis saerTo xangrZlivoba. ase, magaliTad, 1896-
1897 da 1968-1971 wlebs Soris periodSi mosaxleobis sicocxlis
saerTo xangrZlivoba gaizarda (ix. cxrili 3) vaJebSi 33,1 wliT,
xolo qalebSi _ 40,2 wliT. magram am periodSi 5 wlis vaJebis
mosalodneli sicocxlis xangrZlivoba gaizarda 12,6 wliT,
xolo qalebis _ 20,6 wliT; 70 wlis asakebisaTvis _ Sesabamisad
mxolod 0,5 wliT vaJebisaTvis da 2,1 wliT qalebisaTvis. es
niSnavs, rom sicocxlis saerTo xangrZlivobis zrda upiratesad
bavSvTa mokvdaobis Semcirebis xarjze xdeboda.

28
sabWoTa demografiul literaturaSi aris unikaluri naSromi, romelic eZRvneba 1906
wels dabadebul pirTa socialur-demografiul istorias. (ix.: Урланис Б. Ц. История одного
поколения. М., 1968).

58
 rogoria sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobis maCvenebelTa
variaciis sazRvrebi? demografTa SefasebiT jer kidev XVIII
saukunis bolomde, mosaxleobis sicocxlis xangrZlivoba
dabadebisas Seadgenda 20-30 wels, ufro xSirad es maCvenebeli
qalebSi ufro naklebi iyo, vidre vaJebSi. Cvens droSi am
maCveneblis yvelaze maRali done (pirobiTi TaobisaTvis)
Seadgens daaxloebiT 73-75 wels vaJebisaTvis da 78-80 wels
qalebisaTvis. sicocxlis xangrZlivobis aseT dones Seesabameba
10%0-ze naklebi CvilTaA mokvdaobis maCvenebeli, praqtikulad
sxvadasxva saxis infeqciuri daavadebebis likvidaciis pirobebSi.
imave varaudidan gamomdinare, romelic safuZvlad udevs
mokvdaobis cxrilebis gaangariSebas, SeiZleba gaviangariSoT
qorwinebis, Sobadobisa da ganqorwinebis cxrilebic. maTi
specifika imaSi mdgomareobs, rom isini iangariSeba ara
dabadebidanve, e.i. ara nulovani asakidan, aramed im momentidan,
roca sakmaod didi raodenobiTaa SesaZlebeli esa Tu is
demografiuli SemTxvevebi (magaliTad, Sobadobis cxrilebi
iwyeba 16 wlidan). es cxrilebi aseve moicavs garkveul asakSi
ama Tu im SemTxvevis moxdenis albaTobas, magaliTad albaToba
imisa rom 20 wlis asakSi daqorwindes an ar daqorwindes,
gaaCinos an ar gaaCinos bavSvi da a.S. amitom demografiuli
cxrilebi warmoadgens demografiuli analizis sakmaod efeqtur
da universalur meTods.
ukanasknel wlebSi demografiul gaangariSebaTa praqtikaSi,
gansakuTrebiT ki maSin, roca ara gvaqvs detaluri monacemebi
mokvdaobis asakobrivi intensivobis Sesaxeb, gamoiyeneba
mokvdaobis e.w tipiuri (anu ganmazogadebeli) cxrilebi. maTi
arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom sxvadasxva qveynebSi asakobrivi

59
mokvdaobis arsebul maCvenebelTa ganzogadebis safuZvelze,
sicocxlis xangrZlivobis daaxloebiT erTi da imave donis
pirobebSi iangariSeba aseTi saxis cxrilebis gasaSualebuli
maCveneblebi. ase magaliTad, gaeros eqspertebma gaiangariSes 18-
dan 75 wlamde sicocxlis xangrZlivobis doneTa cxrilebi 2,5
wlis intervaliT.
mosaxleobaSi mimdinare procesebis SeswavlaSi, aqtiurad
gamoiyeneba maTematikuri modelebic. analizSi gansakuTrebiT
farTod gamoiyeneba e.w. stabiluri mosaxleobis Teoria, romlis
safuZvlebi jer kidev meore msoflio omamde SeimuSava
amerikelma statistikosma a.lotkam. miCneulia, rom stabiluri
ewodos iseT mosaxleobas, sadac migracia sruliad ar aris da
mudmivadaa SenarCunebuli Sobadobis asakobrivi da mokvdaobis
intensivobis doneebi. aseT hipoTezur mosaxleobaSi dabadebaTa
ricxvi icvleba (mcirdeba an izrdeba) gansazRvruli mudmivi
tempiT, da maSasadame, mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebis tempebic
mudmivi iqneba.
am modelis praqtikuli mniSvneloba is aris, rom igi
SedarebiT martivi gaangariSebiT saSualebas iZleva
gamovTvaloT, Tu rogori iqneboda mosaxleobis ricxovnoba da
asakobrivi struqtura Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis mocemuli
reJimis, da maSasadame, am mosaxleobis ricxovnobis zrdis (an
klebis) mudmivi tempis pirobebSi. amitom demografiaSi bevri
maTematikuri modeli im daSvebidan gamomdinareobs, romelic
safuZvlad udevs stabiluri mosaxleobis Teorias.
stabiluri mosaxleobis modeli amartivebs realur
cxovrebas, magram miuxedavad amisa, igi SeiZleba gamoyenebul
iqnes praqtikul gaangariSebebSi im SemTxvevebSi, roca realuri

60
mosaxleoba Tavisi mdgomareobiT axlosaa stabilurTan.
analogiuri situacia iyo Sua saukuneebSi, roca mravali
aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi arsebobda ucvlelad maRali
Sobadoba da mokvdaoba.
stabiluiri mosaxleobis hipoTezas iyeneben perspeqtiuli
gaangariSebebisTvisac im SemTxvevaSi, roca ara aqvT monacemebi
mosaxleobis faqtiurad Camoyalibebuli asakobrivi struqturis
Sesaxeb da aris mxolod Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis doneTa
SedarebiTi Sefasebani.
rogorc ukve aRiniSna, mosaxleobis Seswavlis mniSvnelovan
mimarTulebas warmoadgens realuri Taobis meTodi. am midgomis
poziciidan mniSvnelovania vicodeT, ra saboloo SedegebiT miva
esa Tu is Taoba bavSvTaSobis asakis dasasrulamde, ufro
zustad ki _ ramdeni bavSvi iqneba ojaxSi, saSualod ama Tu im
Taobis 50 wlis asakis TiToeul qalze. es sazomi Sobadobis
mniSvnelovan maxasiaTebels warmoadgens da ewodeba Sobadobis
amomwuravi (anu, rogorc zogjer amboben, jamuri) maCvenebeli.
SeiZleba viangariSoT realur TaobaSi dabadebulTa ricxvi
garkveuli asakisaTvis _ 25 wlisTvis, 40 wlisTvis da sxva
asakebisTvisac. am maCveneblTa upiratesoba demografiul
koeficientTan SedarebiT isaa, rom am TaobaSi sxvadasxva
asakobrivi jgufebis raodenobriobis Tanafardobisagan, ojaxis
cxovrebaSi sxvadasxva epizoduri faqtorebis gavlenisa da
gaCenaTa grafikis meryeobis pirdapiri damokidebulebis gareSe,
isini gviCvenebs, rogori SedegiT, saboloo rezultatiT
amTavrebs esa Tu is kohorta kvlavwarmoebis cikls.
ase magaliTad, specialuri gamokvlevebis monacemebiT, 1913-
1917 wlebSi dabadebul rus qalTa Taobas (anu kohortas) 45

61
wlisaTvis saSualod hyavda 2,37 bavSvi, xolo 1918-1922 wlebSi
dabadebul rus qalTa kohortas ki _ ukve 2,16. analogiuri
maCveneblebi imave kohortis uzbeki, yazaxi, tajiki da Turqmeni
qalebisaTvis Seadgenda 3,52-s, yirgizebisaTvis _ 4,25-s. realuri
Taobis meTodiT gaangariSebuli maCveneblebi SeiZleba
gamoTvlil iqnes sxvadasxva formiT, magaliTad rogorc
bavSvebis saSualo ricxvi qalebze qorwinebis xangrZlivobasa
da dedaTa ganaTlebis donze damokidebulebiT, cal-calke did,
saSualo da mcire qalaqebSi mcxovrebTaTvis da a.S., rac
saSualebas iZleva gavaZlieroT demografiuli analizis
socialuri aspeqti.
axla davubrundeT mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis
Camoyalibebuli reJimis gazomvis meTodebis sakiTxs. saqme is
aris, rom CvenTvis aucilebelia vicodeT Tu rogoria mTlianad
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis tipi (gafarToebuli, e.i. roca
umcrosi Taoba ricxobrivad metia ufros Taobaze, Tu
Sekvecili, anu roca umcrosi Taoba naklebia ufros Taobaze,
Tu martivi, anu roca umcrosi da ufrosi Taobis ricxovnoba
tolia) da rogoria TaobaTa cvlis raodenobrivi xarisxi.
mokvdaobis cxrilis ukve cnobili monacemebis gamoyenebiT
SeiZleba gadavideT im maCveneblis arsis aRweraze, romelic
yvelaze xSirad gamoiyeneba mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis
arsebuli tipis dasaxasiaTeblad. laparakia mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis, e.w. neto-koeficientze.
mis gasaangariSeblad gamoiyeneba mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis CvenTvis ukve cnobili iseTi maxasiaTebeli,
rogoricaa bruto-koeficienti ( Rbr. ) . SegaxsenebT, rom is
gviCvenebs, Tu ramden gogonas aCens saSualod ama Tu im

62
pirobiTi Taobis yoveli deda, e.i. axasiaTebs qalTa Taobis
cvlas mokvdaobis arsebuli reJimis gauTvaliswineblad.
maSasadame, imisaTvis, rom miviRoT qalebis kvlavwarmoebis
maxasiaTebeli, rogorc Sobadobis, aseve mokvdaobis reJimis
gaTvaliswinebiTac, saWiroa bruto-koeficientis sidide
gogonaTa im ricxviT SevamciroT, romlebic ver miaRweven im
asakamde, romlebSic iyvnen dedebi gogonaTa gaCenisas.
am mizniT demografebi sargebloben mokvdaobisa da
sicocxlis xangrZlivobis cxrilis erT-erTi maCvenebliT,
romelsac ewodeba cocxlad myofTa saSualo ricxvi (ix.
cxrili 3), romelTa ricxvic TiToeul asakobriv intervalSi
miT metia, rac ufro naklebia mokvdaoba. ase, magaliTad, 15-dan
16 wlamde asakSi cocxlad myofi vaJebis saSualo ricxvi
evropuli ruseTis 50 guberniisaTvis 1896-1897 wlebSi Seadgenda
50 100, ssrk-is evropuli nawilisaTvis 1926-1927 wlebSi _ 66 224,
xolo ssrk-saTvis 1958-1959 wlebSi _ 92 914-s. am sididis asakidan
asakamde cvlileba mokvdaobis asakobrivi maCveneblebis
dinamikuri maxasiaTebelia. amitom Tuki gavamravlebT
bavSvTaSobis, 15-dan 49 wlis asakamde intervalSi, qalebis
Sobadobis asakobriv maCveneblebs Sesabamis sidideebze da
miRebul Sedegebs SevkribavT, miviRebT gogonaTa im ricxvs,
romlebic gaCndebian da miaRweven maTi mSoblebis bavSvTaSobis
dawyebis asakmde. am maCvenebels hqvia mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis neto, anu sxvagvarad wminda koeficienti. is
gviCvenebs, Tu saangariSo wels arsebuli Sobadobisa da
mokvdaobis reJimis pirobebSi, saSualod ramdeni gogona
daibadeba da miaRwevs maTi mSoblebis bavSvTaSobis dawyebis

63
asakamde. Cvens qveyanaSi am maCveneblis dinamikis monacemebi
moyvanilia cxrili 4-Si.
isini, mosaxleobis kvlavwamoebis tipis raodenobriv
cvlilebazec metyvelebs. Tuki mosaxleobis `Semosavals,~
romelic bruto-koeficientiT, e.i. Sobadobis doniT izomeba,
SevadarebT mis faqtiur `realizacias~ mokvdaobis
cxrili 4.
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis bruto da neto koeficientebi
ruseTsa da ssrk-Si 1838-1979 wlebSi.29

1838-1851 1904-1913 1958-1959 1978-1979

bruto koeficientis sidide 2,89 3,10 1,36 1,11

neto koeficientis sidide 1,20 1,64 1,26 1,08
bruto da neto koeficientebis
Tanafardoba 2,40 1,89 1,08 1,02

gaTvaliswinebiT (neto-koeficienti), maSin am maCvenebelTa

Sefardeba gviCvenebs, Tu saangariSo periodSi Sobadobisa da
mokvdaobis arsebuli reJimis pirobebSi saSualod ramdeni
bavSvis gaCenaa saWiro, romA uzrunvelyos TaobaTa cvla
TanafardobiT 1:1, e.i. uzrunvelyos e.w. martivi kvlavwarmoeba.
Tuki XIX saukunis SuaxanebSi, e.w. martivi kvlavwarmoebis fasi
Cvens qveyanaSi (ix. cxrili 4) Seadgenda 2,3-2,4-s, ukve imave
saukunis bolos mokvdaobis Semcirebis xarjze igi oramde
Semcirda, xolo axla ki axlosaa erTTan, e.i. am maCveneblis
zRvarTan, rameTu ukvdavi adamianebi ar arseboben. xazi unda

29
ix.: Население СССР 1973. М., 1975, с. 138; Воспроизводство населения СССР, с. 273; Проблемы повышения
эффективности использования рабочей силы в СССР. М., 1983, с. 260.

64
gavusvaT, rom es cvlilebebi asaxavs ara marto demografiul,
aramed Rrma socialur Zvrebsac.
neto koeficienti (iseve rogorc bruto koeficientic)
tradiciulad iangariSeba saSualod erT qalze da Zalian
xSirad gamoiyeneba analizisas. Cveulebriv miRebulia, rom Tu
neto-koeficintis sidide erTze metia, es niSnavs mosaxleobis
gafarToebul kvlavwarmoebas, Tu erTze naklebia _ Sekvecil
kvlavwarmoebas; Tu es maCvenebeli erTis tolia, maSin saqme
exeba martiv kvlavwarmoebas.
aRvniSnavT, rom neto-koeficientis sidide yovelTvis
naklebi unda iyos bruto-koeficientze, radganac mosaxleobis
mravalricxovan erTobliobaSi yovelTvis iqneba sikvdilis
SemTxvevebi. amave dros ramdeniTac erTze ufro metia
kvlavwarmoebis bruto da neto koeficientebis Tanafardoba (am
Tanafardobas zogjer kvlavwarmoebis ekonomiurobis
maCvenebelsac uwodeben), miT metia mokvdaobiT gamowveuli
danakargebi.
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis bruto da neto koeficientebis
dinamikis monacemebiT (ix. cxrili 4) Tu vimsjelebT, maSin Cvens
qveyanaSi mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis tempebis TandaTanobiTi
Semcirebis tendencia SeiniSneba. amave dros mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba jer kidev ganagrZobs zrdas.
saqme is aris, rom neto-koeficienti ver iTvaliswinebs
migraciis gavlenas mosaxleobis ricxovnobasa da asakobriv
Semadgenlobaze, xolo qveynis calkeul regionebSi migracia
gadamwyvet gavlenas axdens mosaxleobis ricxovnobasa da
Semadgenlobaze. amitomac qveynis calkeuli nawilisaTvis neto-
koeficientis gamoTvlas SezRuduli analitikuri mniSvneloba

65
aqvs. mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis tipis mTlianad Sefasebisas ki,
maCvenebelTa mTeli sistema unda gamoviyenoT da, rogorc es
zogjer xdeba xolme, mxolod neto-koeficientebis
gaangariSebiT ar unda SemovifargloT.

demografiuli procesebis Seswavlis

sociologiuri meTodebi

demografiuli analizis meTodikaSi ukanasknel wlebSi

ganviTareba hpova axalma mimarTulebam, romelsac pirobiTad
SeiZleba vuwodoT sociologiuri meTodebi. am midgomis arsi
mdgomareobs ama Tu im demografiul problemasTan mosaxleobis
damokidebulebis analizSi. TiToeuli ojaxi, TiToeuli
adamiani Camoyalibebuli cxovrebiseuli pirobebis, Tavisi da
mis garSemo myofi adamianebis cxovrebiseuli gamocdilebis,
Tavisi mSoblebis magaliTis, e.i. farTo gagebiT socialuri
garemos safuZvelze, gamoimuSavebs Tavis damokidebulebas
Sobadobis, qorwinebis, ganqorwinebisa da migraciis mimarT. ase,
magaliTad, arc Tu ise Soreul warsulSi ojaxSi gaCenaTa
ricxvis Segnebuli SezRudva ara marto ikicxeboda, aramed
ubralod dauSvebeli iyo sazogadoebrivi azrisa da
kanonmdeblobis mxridanac ki. ganqorwineba TiTqmis SeuZlebeli
iyo ara marto religiuri, aramed ruseTis marTlmadidebeli
mosaxleobis umetesobis yofiTi moralis mxrivac. ra Tqma unda,
amas safuZvlad edo socialur-ekonomikuri mizezebi, magram
isini sayovelTaod miRebuli standartebis myar warmodgenebad,
demografiuli qcevis normebad gardaiqmna.

66
 amasTan dakavSirebiT SegaxsenebT, rom jer kidev 1847 wels
XIX saukunis cnobili ekonomisti da publicisti v.a.miliutini
Sobadobis SezRudvis sxvadasxva meTodebis Sesaxeb werda,
rogorc ucnaur, uazro da aRmaSfoTebel rameebze. daaxloebiT
40 wlis Semdeg l.n.tolstoi werda nayofis ganadgurebis
aTeulobiT xerxis `borotebaze.~ 30 erTi sityviT, wesad
iTvleboda bevri bavSvebis yola (ufro sworad bevri bavSvis
gaCena), wesad, an yovel SemTxvevaSi maRal sazogadoebaSi
dasaSvebad iTvleboda, `gverdiTi romanis~ qona, magram
ganqorwineba dauSvebeli iyo. demografiuli qcevis es normebi
Seexeboda mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis yvela mxares. gaixseneT
tragikuli formula `RmerTma mogvca _ RmerTmave waiyvana,~
romelic im wlebSi xSirad gamoiyeneboda, rogorc bavSvTa
maRali mokvdaobis gamarTleba.
Cvens droSi Seicvala, Tanac principulad, upirveles
yovlisa socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebi. amis safuZvelze
Seicvala adamianTa demografiuli qcevis standartebisadmi
damokidebulebac, imisda mixedviT, ra aris sasurveli, dasaSvebi,
an moduric ki.
adamianTaA`demografiuli qcevis~ SeswavliT, Cven vavlenT am
mxriv moqmed socialur-fsiqologiur normebs. rogorc
detalurma gamokvlevebma gviCvena, mniSvnelovania isic, rom
mosaxleobis mosazrebebi mTeli rigi problemebis Sesaxeb
Zalian axlosaa (ra Tqma unda, statistikuri TvalsazrisiT, e.i.
saSualod adamianTa didi masisaTvis) mis realur demografiul
qcevasTan. amrigad, es maCveneblebi warmoadgens momavlis,

30
ix.: Воспроизводство населения СССР, с. 150.

67
magaliTad, Sobadobis an qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis
tendenciaTa Tavisebur prognozul Sefasebas.
mniSvnelovania ara marto gamovavlinoT, ramdeni ojaxi
amjobinebs bavSvebis yolas, aramed gamovarkvioT, Tu ratom
undaT maT imaTi yola da ratom swored erTi-ori, da ara meti,
gamovarkvioT mosaxleobis migraciis mizezebi. dabolos,
aucilebelia ganisazRvros ama Tu im demografiuli
faseulobisadmi damokidebulebis Camoyalibebis Tavad
meqanizmic. yovelive es upirveles yovlisa saWiroa vicodeT
demografiuli politikis RonisZiebaTa kompleqsis
SemuSavebisaTvis. imisaTvis rom gegmazomierad da
mizanmimarTulad vimoqmedoT demografiul procesebze, saWiroa
gavigoT demografiuli qcevis ama Tu im tipis formirebis
meqanizmi.31
demografiuli qcevis, misi formirebis Seswavlis
problemebi, axla muSavdeba axali mimarTulebis mier, romelic
yalibdeba sakuTriv demografiisa da sociologiis mijnaze, da
romelsac pirobiTad SeiZleba vuwodoT xalxTmosaxleobis
sociologia. 32 aq jer kidev bevria gasakeTebeli, magram Cvens
qveyanaSi ukve Catarebuli, is SedarebiT mcirericxovani,
gamokvlevebi gviCvenebs demografiuli kvlevebis am
mimarTulebis mniSvnelobas. Zalian mokled SevCerdeT
demografiuli qcevis analizis im meTodur xerxebze, romlebic
ukanasknel wlebSi yvelaze xSirad gamoiyeneboda sabWoTa
mecnierebis mier.

31
demografiuli qceva Tavis mxriv SeiZleba diferencirebul iqnes demografiul procesTa
sxvadasxva saxeebis mixedviT. magaliTad, masSi Sedis mosaxleobis damokidebuleba
Sobadobis problemisadmi _ reproduqciuli qceva, damokidebuleba migraciis
problemisadmi _ migraciuli qceva da zogierTi sxva formebi.
32
ix.: Система знаний о народонаселении. М., 1976.

68
 upirveles yovlisa aRvniSnavT meTodebs, romlebic
mimarTulia mosaxleobis didi jgufisagan bavSvebis ama Tu im
ricxvisadmi upiratesobis gamovlenisaken. aq gamoiyeneba
sxvadasxvagvari maxasiaTeblebi, magram yvelaze xSirad
specialurad Camoyalibebuli kiTxvebis safuZvelze arkveven e.w.
ojaxSi bavSvebis mosalodnel da idealur ricxvs. bavSvebis
mosalodnel ricxvSi igulisxmeba maTi is saSualo ricxvi,
romliTac Semoifargleba ojaxi, cxovrebis realuri pirobebis,
konkretuli cxovrebiseuli situaciis _ Tavisi biografiis,
Camoyalibebuli materialuri mdgomareobis, meuRleTa
pirovnuli maxasiaTeblebis gaTvaliswinebiT. bavSvebis idealuri
ricxvi gviCvenebs adamianTa warmodgenebs imaze, Tu ojaxisa da
cxovrebis saukeTeso pirobebSi, ramdeni bavSvis yola SeiZleba
ojaxSi.
Cvens qveyanaSi am problemebis Seswavla, Tumc ama Tu im
periodSi gansxvavebuli intensivobiT, sakmaod farTod tardeba.
mxolod 1964-dan 1973 wlis CaTvliT periodSi, e.i. demografiuli
gamokvlevebis aqtivizaciis sawyis periodSi, Catarebul iqna 19
gamokvleva ssrk-is sxvadasxva raionSi, romlebic Seicavda
kiTxvebs reproduqciuli ganwyobis Sesaxeb. yvela isini, iseve
rogorc bevri momdevno gamokvlevac, araa erTnairi TavianTi
mniSvnelobiTa da programiT, gamokiTxuli adamianebis ricxviT.
ase, magaliTad, centraluri statistikuri sammarTvelos
(css) samecniero kvleviTi institutis demografiis
ganyofilebis mier 1969 wels Catarebul, erT-erT meTodurad
yvelaze kargad momzadebul gamokvlevaSi, romelic pirveli iyo
mogvianebiT Catarebul aseTi saxis samuSaoTa seriaSi, 40

69
wlamde asakis gaTxovili qalebisaTvis gagzavnil anketebze
miRebul iqna pasuxebi 33,6 aTasi qalisagan.
anketa Seicavda kiTxvas, qalebis azriT bavSvebis idealuri
(`Tqven rogor fiqrobT, ramdeni bavSvis yolaa yvelaze ukeTesi
saerTod ojaxSi?~) da mosalodneli ricxvis Sesaxeb (`Tqven
ramdeni bavSvis yolas apirebT sul?~), agreTve mizezebis
CamonaTvals, romelTaganac saWiro iyo im ZiriTadis amorCeva
romelic xels uSlis qals imdeni bavSvi iyolios, ramdenic mas
surs. specialurma gaangariSebebma aCvena, rom miRebuli
monacemebi warmomadgenlobiTia, rogorc mTlianad qveynisaTvis,
aseve mokavSire respublikebisTvisac.
pasuxebis damuSaveba metyvelebs, rom qveynis mixedviT
bavSvebis saSualo idealuri ricxvi Seadgens 2,89-s, da meryeobs
2,6-dan latviis ssr-Si, 4,55-mde uzbekeTis ssr-Si. mosalodneli
bavSvebis saSualo ricxvi ssrk-Si Seadgenda 2,42-s da irxeoda
2,07-dan ukrainaSi, 4,31-mde uzbekeTis ssr-Si. gamokvlevis
monacemebma aCvenes, rom im periodisaTvis ssrk-Si bavSvebis
saSualo mosalodneli ricxvi sakmarisi iyo martivi
kvlavwarmoebisaTvis, e.i. TaobaTa 1:1 TanafardobiT cvlisa da
misi ramdenadme zrdisTvisac ki. bavSvebis idealuri ricxvis
Sesaxeb miRebuli monacemebi ki metyvelebs, rom gansazRvrul
pirobebSi Sobadobis intensivoba qveyanaSi SeiZleba gaizardos,
e.i. am mimarTulebiT aris zrdis rezervebi.
demografiuli analizis meore mimarTulebas warmoadgens im
mizezebis Seswavla, romlebic ganapirobebs an xels uwyobs
mosaxleobis problemebisadmi ama Tu im damokidebulebis
formirebas. kvlevis aseTma mimarTulebebma farTo gavrceleba

70
hpova. es SeiZleba iyos meore an mesame bavSvis gaCenaze uaris
Tqmis, an axal sacxovrebel adgilze gadasvlis mizezebi da a.S.
moviyvanoT aseTi analizis magaliTi. 1978 wels moskovis
erT-erT raionSi ganqorwinebis 500 saqmis masalebidan gairkva,
rom yvelaze ufro xSirad yvela aRniSnuli motividan _
`loToba da alkoholizmi~ _ ganqorwinebis motivad gvxvdeba
44,6%-Si, meore adgilzea _ `xasiaTis SeuTavsebloba da
urTierTgagebis ar arseboba~ _ 12,2% da mesamezea _ `Ralati da
Ralatis eWvi.~
ra Tqma unda, aseTi saxis pasuxebis sizuste gadaWarbebulad
ar unda SevafasoT. pasuxebSi xom arc Tu ise iSviaTad
aRniSnaven ara WeSmarit mizezs, romelic yovelTvis ar SeiZleba
zustad ganisazRvros, aramed imas, romelic mocemul momentSi,
mocemuli adamianis poziciidan, garSemo myof adamianTa TvalSi
SeiZleba Sesaferisad, dasaSvebad, gamosadegadac ki
gamoiyurebodes. iseT rTul movlenaSi rogoricaa ojaxis
daSla yovelTvis ar SeiZleba gamovyoT ZiriTadi mizezi,
radganac isini yvela mWidrodaa gadajaWvuli. miuxedavad amisa,
es gamokiTxvebi saSualebas iZleva gamovavlinoT demografiuli
qcevis `mtkivneuli wertilebi,~ gavigoT Tu ra aris amJamad
mosaxleobisaTvis yvelaze ufro mniSvnelovani.
ukanasknel wlebSi demografiuli problemebisadmi
mosaxleobis damokidebulebis formirebis meqanizmis asaxsnelad
gamokvlevebis Catarebisas, farTod gamoiyeneba fsiqologiuri
testebi da meTodikebi, romlebic saSualebas iZleva
siRrmiseulad gavigoT mosaxleobis arc Tu yovelTvis
gacnobierebuli damokidebuleba sxvadasxva problemisadmi,

71
magaliTad pirveli, meore an mesame bavSvis roli Tanamedrove
ojaxis faseulobaTa sistemaSi.
aseTi midgomis magaliTs warmoadgens e.w. `semantikuri
diferencialis~ meTodi. misi arsi is aris, rom vlindeba
mosaxleobis emociuri damokidebuleba raime cnebis mimarT.
magaliTad, moaqvT cneba `bavSvebi,~ `1, 2 3, 4 bavSvi ojaxSi,~ da
igi emociuri Sefasebis poziciidanAunda Sefasdes `kargi _
cudi,~ amasTan es kategoriebi mocemulia Tvisebriv
ganmartebaTaAgaSlili saxiT. magaliTad, cneba `bavSvi ojaxSi~
SemoTavazebulia rom asocirdes cnebaTa mTeli nakrebiT _
`civi, Tbili, cxeli,~ `alersiani, nazi, uxeSi.~ amaTgan
garkveuli cnebis amorCeviT gamokiTxuli imTaviTve avlens
Tavis Sinagan, xSirad ki farul, damokidebulebas am
sakiTxebisadmi. erTi sityviT, analizis sociologiuri meTodebi
sakmaod perspeqtiulia da SemdgomSi kvlav ganviTardeba.

72
 demografiuli informaciis wyaroebi

demografiul analizSi amJamad gamoyenebuli meTodebis

sirTule da mravalferovneba maRal moTxovnebs uyenebs maT
informaciul uzrunvelyofas. pirvel yovlisa demografiuli
informacia unda iyos mrvalferovani da sxvadasxvagvari, e.i.
iZleodes demografiuli SemTxvevebis ara marto saerTo, aramed
maT detalur maxasiaTeblebsac. magaliTad, Tu saqme exeba
Sobadobis Seswavlas, maSin mniSvnelovania ara ubralod
gaCenaTa saerTo ricxvis codna, aramed maTi ganawilebac
dabadebaTa rigiTobis (pirveli, meore, mesame da a.S.), dedaTa
asakis, qorwinebis mdgomareobisa da rigi sxva maxasiaTeblebis
mixedviT. Tu saqme exeba mokvdaobis Seswavlas, aucilebelia
vicodeT ara marto gardacvalebaTa ricxvi, aramed maTi
ganawilebac sqesisa da asakis, gardacvalebis mizezebis,
gardacvlilTa profesiebisa da agreTve rigi sxva
maxasiaTeblebis mixedviTac. Tuki aseTi detaluri informacia
ara gvaqvs, SeuZlebelia demografiuli analizis yvela meTodis
gamoyeneba, es ki niSnavs, rom demografiuli procesebis
Seswavlisas mivideT arazust, xolo zogjer ki ubralod
araswor daskvnebamde.
demografiuli informaciisadmi meore mniSvnelovani
moTxovnaa misi saimedooba. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, miRebuli
monacemebi Tavisufali unda iyos rogorc winaswarganzraxuli
damaxinjebebisgan (xolo aseTi SemTxvevebi ki xdeba), aseve
informaciis Segrovebis specifikasTan dakavSirebuli

73
uzustobebisagan. 33 demografiaSi informaciis
arawinaswarganzraxuli damaxinjebis magaliTi SeiZleba iyos
movlena, romelmac `asakobrivi akumulaciis~ saxelwodeba miiRo.
misi arsi is aris, rom aRricxvis Catarebisas (gansakuTrebiT ki
mosaxleobis aRwerebis dros) adamianebs midrekileba aqvT, rom
TavianTi asakebi `0~-iT an 5-iT daboloebul TariRebamde
daamrgvalon. xandazmuli adamianebi amjobineben, rom TavianTi
an Svilebis dabadebis weli raime mniSvnelovan istoriul
SemTxvevas, magaliTad omis dawyebas an damTavrebas gauTanabron.
amis Sedegad `mrgvali~ asakebi TiTqos agroveben, akumulireben
mezobeli, maTTan axlos myofi asakebis ricxovnobas. ase
magaliTad, ssrk-is 1926 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebiT
49 wlis asakSi registrirebuli iyo 358 aTasi qali, 50 wlis
asakSi _ 1 281 aTasi da 51 wlis asakSi _ 270 aTasi. amitom aseTi
arawinaswarganzraxuli Secdomebis koreqtirebisaTvis
gamoiyeneba statistikis rigi meTodebi, amasTan, rac ufro
maRalia mosaxleobis kultura da ganaTlebis done, miT
naklebia aseTi damaxinjebebi. mosaxleobis bolo aRwerebma (1970
da 1979 w.w.) aCvena, rom Cvens qveyanaSi aseTi saxis damaxinjebebi
umniSvneloa.
axla ki demografiuli monacemebis sizustis Sesaxeb. isic,
rogorc nebismieri sxva informacia, damokidebulia kvlevis
winaSe dasmul amocanaze, gaangariSebis meTodikaze, gamoyenebul
maCveneblebze da sawyisi informaciis saimedoobaze. ase
magaliTad, sabWoTa demografebis (i.g.venecki) gaangariSebebma
aCvena, rom mokvdaobis cxrilebis albaTuri maCveneblebi
33
statistikas gaaCnia rigi xerxebisa, romelTa meSveobiTac SeiZleba Sefasdes miRebul
SedegTa saimedooba. ix. magaliTad: Эдельгауз Г.Б. Достоверность статистических показателей. М., 1977;
Моргенштерн О. О точности экономико-статистических наблюдений. М., 1968, и ряд учебников по теории
статистики.

74
(magaliTad, garkveul asakSi gardacvalebis albaToba)34 mxolod
mZimidan mesame niSnamdea zusti, xolo meoTxe da miT umetes
mexuTe niSnebi SeiZleba Secdomebs Seicavdes. amitom am
maCvenebelTa mexuTe niSnis sizustiT gaangariSeba umetesad
tradiciisadmi xarkis gadaxdaa, vidre praqtikis moTxovna.
demografiuli informaciis wyaroebi saSualebas unda
iZleodes miviRoT monacemTa aucilebeli moculoba ara marto
mTlianad qveynisaTvis, aramed regionebis, e.i. olqis, mxaris,
avtonomiuri respublikis, xolo zogierT SemTxevaSi ki
administraciuli raionis mixedviTac. Cveni mravalerovnuli
qveynisaTvis es Zalian mniSvnelovania, radganac mniSvnelovani
regionuli gansxvavebebi arsebobs ara marto bunebriv-klimatur
pirobebSi, aramed mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis procesTa
xasiaTSic.
dabolos, mosaxleobis Sesaxeb monacemTa wyaroebi mxolod
maSin upasuxebs srulad praqtikis moTxovnebs, roca saSualebas
iZleva, rom aucilebeli monacemebi miviRoT drois xangrZlivi
periodis ganmavlobaSi. mxolod aseT SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba
gamovavlinoT demografiul procesTa cvlilebis generaluri
tendenciebi, da maSasadame, ganvWvritoT maTi momavali,
SeviswavloT mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis ama Tu im tipis
SesaZlo Sedegebi da amis safuZvelze SevimuSaoT RonisZiebaTa
aucilebeli kompleqsi, maTi, sazogadoebisaTvis saWiro
mimarTulebiT koreqciisaTvis.
demografiuli informaciis wyaroebisadmi wayenebuli yvela
es rTuli da mravalmxrivi moTxovna ganapirobebs
demografiuli informaciis Segrovebis urTierTSemavsebel

34
am maCveneblis arsis Sesaxeb zemoT iyo saubari.

75
meTodTa sistemis aucilebel arsebobas. TiToeul am meTods
Tavisi Rirseba da nakli aqvs, isini avsebs erTmaneTs da
arsebiTad erTian informaciul sistemas warmoadgens.
Tanamedrove pirobebSi ssrk-Si demografiul procesTa
monacemebis sami ZiriTadi wyaro gamoiyeneba: mosaxleobis
aRwerebi; demografiuli movlenebis mimdinare aRricxva (mmaCis
biuro35 da soflis sabWo), SerCeviTi gamokvlevebi.
istoriulad mosaxleobis Sesaxeb monacemTa pirveli wyaro
iyo aRwerebi, romelTa Catarebis mecnieruli principebi
pirvelad Camoayaliba cnobilma rusma geografma da
statistikosma p.p.semionov-tianSanskim.
mosaxleobis aRwera, rogorc monacemTa wyaro, yvelaze
metadaa cnobili mosaxleobisaTvis, radganac misi momzadebisa
da Catarebis dros mosaxleobaSi farTo axsna ganmartebiTi
muSaoba mimdinareobs, masSi bevri adamiani monawileobs. ase,
magaliTad, 1959 wlis mosaxleobis aRweraSi CarTuli iyo 600
aTasi kaci, 1979 wlis aRweraSi _ daaxloebiT 750 aTasi, xolo
momzadebuli rezervis gaTvaliswinebiT ki _ 900 aTasi kaci.
mosaxleobis aRwerebis Catareba mas Semdeg daiwyo roca
mosaxleobis Sesaxeb monacemTa sxva wyaroebi an jer kidev
yalibdeboda, an naklebad efeqturi iyo. yovelive aman warmoSva
azri imis Sesaxeb, rom aRwerebi warmoadgens mosaxleobis
Sesaxeb monacemebis ZiriTad (xolo zogjer erTaderT) wyaros.
SesaZloa am mosazrebas Zvelad Tavisi realuri safuZveli
hqonoda, magram axla saeWvoa, rom igi sinamdviles
Seesabamebodes.36

35
mmaCis biuro _ moqalaqeobrivi mdgomareobis Caweris biuro (mTargmnelis SeniSvna).
36
sabWoTa kavSiris mosaxleobis aRwerebis istoriasa da maT Sedegebze ix.: Киселева Г.П.,
Кваша А.Я. О чем расказывают переписи населения. М., 1983.

76
 Tavisi arsiT mosaxleobis aRwerebi gankuTvnilia
informaciis, romeliRac garkveuli TariRisaTvis, magaliTad
1979 wlis 16-dan 17 ianvris Ramis 24 saaTisaTvis, e.i. cnobebis
drois garkveuli momentisaTvis, misaRebad. aRweris meore
meToduri Tavisebureba isaa, rom igi iZleva cnobebs mTeli
mosaxleobis Sesaxeb erTiani da amis gamo mosaxleobis
gamokiTxvis sakmaod SezRuduli programiT. araa sasurveli
masSi iseTi rTuli kiTxvebis Setana, romlebic gamosakiTx
adamianTan xangrZliv saubars moiTxovs. aRmwerma xom 7-8 dReSi
unda gamokiTxos (an rogorc amboben aRweros) 550-600 kaci.
ar SeiZleba mosaxleobis aRwerebis yovel weliwads
Catareba. maT Casatareblad didi Tanxebia saWiro, da rogorc
ukve aRiniSna, bevri adamiani wydeba samuSaos. aRwerebis,
rogorc mosaxleobis Sesaxeb monacemebis wyaros, mniSvneloba
isaa, rom igi iZleva yvelaze ufro mniSvnelovan da sakmaod
zust monacemebs qveynis mTeli mosaxleobis Sesaxeb. aRwerebis
es Rirsebebi da naklovanebani ganapirobebs, misi rogorc
mosaxleobis Sesaxeb monacemTa wyaros, urTierTkavSiris
aucileblobas informaciis Segrovebis sxva meTodebTan,
romlebic saSualebas mogvcemda migveRo monacemebi
demografiuli movlenebisa da mosaxleobis struqturis Sesaxeb
aRwerebs Soris periodSi, saSualebas mogvcemda gagvego
demografiuli movlenebis detaluri maxasiaTeblebi.
informaciis aseT wyaroebs warmoadgens mosaxleobis e.w.
mimdinare aRricxva da sxvadasxvagvari demografiuli
gamokvlevebi.
sicocxlis manZilze TiToeul Cvengans uwevs mimarTos
mmaCis biuroebs (sofel adgilebSi _ soflis sabWoebs)

77
qorwinebis, bavSvis dabadebis, CvenTvis axlobeli adamianis
gardacvalebis, xolo zogjer ki ganqorwinebis
registarciisaTvis. moqalaqeobrivi mdgomareobis TiToeuli
aqtis (dabadeba, gardacvaleba, qorwineba) registracia ki
arsebiTad aris Setyobineba momxdari demografiuli SemTxvevisa
da misi dawvrilebiTi maxasiaTeblebis _ dabadebuli bavSvis
sqesis, dedisa da mamis asakisa da rigi sxva niSnebis Sesaxeb.
zogjer aseTi sabuTebis Sevsebisas adamianebs ukvirT da
brazoben kidec, maTi azriT, zedmet detalurobaze. magaliTad,
kiTxuloben Tu ratomaa saWiro gardacvalebis aqtebSi imis
aRniSvna Tu raze muSaobda gardacvlili pensioneri. magram am
monacemebis gareSe SeuZlebelia mokvdaobis donis Seswavla
ekonomikis dargebisa da profesiebis mixedviT, rasac didi
praqtikuli mniSvneloba aqvs.
mmaCis biuroebi da soflis sabWoebi moqalaqeobis
mdgomareobis registraciis aqtebis erT egzemplars gadascemen
statistikur organoebs. maTi ganzogadebiT statistikosebi
Rebuloben monacemebs TveSi, kvartalSi, an weliwadSi,
dabadebis, gardacvalebis, qorwinebisa da am movlenaTa sxva
dawvrilebiTi maxasiaTeblebis Sesaxeb, rogorc mTlianad, aseve
calkeuli regionebis mixedviTac. mTlianobaSi, mimdinare
aRricxva saSualebas iZleva miviRoT monacemebi demografiul
movlenaTa saerTo ricxvisa da maTi dawvrilebiTi
maxasiaTeblebis Sesaxeb aRwrebs Soris periodSi. es niSnavs,
rom Tu cnobilia mosaxleobis ricxovnoba aRweris monacemebis
mixedviT, xolo ssrk-Si isini didi xania tardeba wlis
dasawyisis mdgomareobiT, da mas mivumatebT aRweris Semdgomi
wlis ganmavlobaSi dabadebulTa da gamovaklebT gardacvlilTa

78
ricxvs, maSin mTlianad qveynisaTvis SeiZleba miviRoT
monacemebi mosaxleobis raodenobisa da Semadgenlobis Sesaxeb
momdevno wlis dasawyisisaTvis.
mimdinare aRricxvas, rogorc informaciis wyaros, Tavisi
sirTuleebic aqvs. masSi, rogorc mosaxleobis aRweraSi, ar
SeiZleba rTuli (zogierT SemTxvevaSi ki mniSvnelovanic)
kiTxvebis dasma. kidev erTi sirTule imaSi mdgomareobs, rom
demografiul movlenebs statistika mxolod maSin aRricxavs,
Tu adamiani droulad mivida mmaCis biuroSi da registraciaSi
gaatara dabadebis, gardacvalebis an sxva demografiuli
SemTxvevis aqti. amitom mimdinare aRricxvis sisrule didadaa
damokidebuli registarciis mimarT mosaxleobis Segnebulobaze,
unar-Cvevebsa da valdebulebebzec ki.
mimdinare aRricxvis problemebze saubrisas, gvinda
aRvniSnoT kidev erTi wvrilmani ganqorwinebis procesTan
dakavSirebiT. cnobilia, rom arsebuli kanonmdeblobis
safuZvelze iuridiulad gaformebuli (registrirebuli)
qorwineba SeiZleba jer faqtiurad daiSalos, xolo
iuridiulad ki igi garkveuli drois Semdeg gaformdeba.
magram iuridiulad gaformebuli ganqorwinebebis ricxvi
didad aris damokidebuli maTi gaformebis arsebul wesze. rac
ufro rTuli da xangrZlivia es procedura, miT naklebia
ganqorwinebaTa iuridiuli ricxvi, Tundac faqtiurad daSlil
qorwinebaTa ricxvis zrdis pirobebSi. da piriqiT, am
proceduris gamartiveba maSinve iwvevs registrirebul
ganqorwinebaTa, da maSasadame, ganqorwinebis maCvenebelTa da
faqtiurad daSlil qorwinebaTa ricxvis zrdas.

79
 mimdinare aRricxva saSualebas gvaZlevs miviRoT monacemebi
im pirTa ricxvis Sesaxebac, romlebmac Seicvales mudmivi
sacxovrebeli adgili. sacxovrebel adgilze Caweris an iqidan
amoweris dros (sxva dokumentebTan erTad)ATiToeuli 16 wlis
asakamde miRweuli adamiani avsebs e.w. mosaxev talons, romelSic
samisamarTo nawilis garda aRiniSneba adamianis dabadebis weli
(e.i. faqtiurad asaki), sqesi, erovneba da wasvlis (Camosvlis)
adgili, agreTve gamgzavrebis mizani. amave mosaxev talonebSi
Caiwerebian 16 wlis asakamde bavSvebic. Sesabamisi talonebis
saerTo ricxvis SekrebiT (masSi Caweril bavSvebTan erTad)
SeiZleba gamovTvaloT ama Tu im dasaxlebul punqtSi Casul
(wasul) adamianTa ricxvi, da miviRoT zogierTi damatebiTi
monacemi migrantebze, romelsac Seicavs mosaxevi talonebi.
rogorc bunebrivi moZraobis SemTxvevaSi, aqac mTavaria
migrantTa raodenobis aRricxvis sisrule, radganac
sacxovrebeli adgilis gamocvlisas adamianebi yovelTvis rodi
avseben Sesabamis dokumentebs, mocemul SemTxvevaSi mosaxev
talonebs.
ukanasknel wlebSi demografiuli informaciis wyarod
xSirad gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva saxis gamokvlevebi, romlebic
saSualebas iZleva miviRoT demografiuli movlenebis
dawvrilebiTi maxasiaTeblebi. rogorc ukve aRiniSna metad
sainteresoa meuRleTa ganzraxvis Seswavla ojaxSi maTTvis
sasurveli bavSvebis ricxvze.
mosaxleobis aseTi saxis gamokiTxva moiTxovs rogorc
masalebis, aseve gamokvlevis Camtarebeli personalis detalur
momzadebas, gansakuTrebiT Tuki isini exeba ojaxis cxovrebis
delikatur aspeqtebs (magaliTad, ama Tu im meuRlisAmier

80
gamoyenebuli Sobadobis SezRudvis meTodebs). gamokiTxvebis
sirTule ar iZleva saSualebas, rom isini Catardes rogorc
mosaxleobis aRweris programis elementebi da es arcaa saWiro.
Tanamedrove statistikuri xerxebi (e.w. SerCeviTi meTodi)
saSualebas iZleva, misi raRac nawilis gamokiTxvis safuZvelze
miviRoT monacemebi, romlebic garkveuli utyuarobiT axasiaTebs
mTel mosaxleobas.
Cvens qveyanaSi gansxvavebuli vadianobis xarisxis bevri
SerCeviTi demografiuli gamokvleva tardeba. ase magaliTad,
1978 wels moskovis saxelmwifo universitetis ekonomikis
fakultetis xalxTmosaxleobis problemebis Semswavlelma
centrma farTo programiT gamokiTxa 1,3 aTasi gaTxovili
orbavSviani qali. gamokvlevis amocana iyo _ moskovuri ojaxebis
mcireSvilianobis mizezebis gamovlena. aseTma rTulma amocanam
gamoiwvia sxvadasxva SekiTxvis (sul iyo TiTqmis 700 kiTxva)
dasma _ Semosavlebze, ojaxis sabinao pirobebze, meuRleTa
ganaTlebaze, mcireSvilian ojaxze orientirebis mizezebze,
mesame bavSvTan damokidebulebaze da bevri sxva, sxvadasxvagvari
fsiqologiuri testebis CaTvliT, romlebic xsnidnen
reproduqciuli qcevis formirebis meqanizms, ojaxSi bavSvebis
ama Tu im ricxvTan damokidebulebas.
1985 wlis ianvarSi, e.i. mosaxleobis aRwerebs Soris
periodSi, Cvens qveyanaSi farTo programiT Catarda SerCeviTi
demografiuli gamokvleva, romelmac qveynis mosaxleobis
daaxloebiT 5%, e.i TiTqmis 14 mln. kaci moicva. misi monacemebi
axla muSavdeba da saSualebas iZleva sakmaod gavafarTooT
Cveni warmodgenebi qveyanaSi arsebul demografiul tendenciebze.

81
 amrigad, demografiuli movlenebis detaluri da
mravalmxrivi analizisaTvis aucilebelia kompleqsurad
gamoviyenoT mosaxleobis Sesaxeb arsebuli monacemebis yvela
wyaro, gvaxsovdes maTi meToduri SesaZleblobani da
naklovanebebi.
Cven Zalian zogadad ganvixileT demografiuli analizis
Tanamedrove meTodebi. aRwerili xerxebi srulebiTac ver
amowuravs mTel mis arsenals, radganac zogierT SemTxvevaSi
demografebi xalxTmosaxleobis dinamikis analizisaTvis
iyeneben grafikul meTodebsac, Tanamedrove sociologiisa da
statistikis mier SemuSavebul xerxebs, sxvadasxva maTematikur
modelebs, maT Soris iseT perspeqtiul meTodebsac, rogoricaa
imitaciis ekonomikur-demografiuli modeli. magram yvela
sxvadasxvagvari analizuri instrumentis gamoyeneba unda
gamomdinareobdes ramdenime ZiriTadi principidan.
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis procesTa analizisas
aucilebelia gvaxsovdes, rom mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis ama
Tu im tipis formirebas pirvel rigSi gansazRvravs socialur-
ekonomikuri faqtorebi, romlebic specifikurad vlindeba
TiToeul qveyanaSi. saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT gamoyenebul
maCvenebelTa meToduri SesaZleblobani, gvaxsovdes, rom
demografiuli analizis xerxebis mxolod kompleqsurma
gamoyenebam SeiZleba mogvces mimdinare procesTa sakmaod zusti
suraTi.

82
 Tavi III
demografiuli prognozirebis Sesaxeb

demografiuli prognozebi warmoadgens grZelvadiani

kompleqsuri, socialur-ekonomikuri dagegmvis mniSvnelovan
elements. praqtikulad Zalian Znelia ekonomikisa da socialuri
cxovrebis romelime sferos moZebna, sadac grZelvadiani
dagegmvisas demografiul prognozTa monacemebi ar
gamoiyenebodes. `Cven unda viswavloT, _ aRniSnuli iyo skkp-is
ck-is ivnisis (1983 w.) plenumze, _ Cveni sameurneo gegmebis
SemuSavebisas yovelmxriv gaviTvaliswinoT da avsaxoT maTSi
sazogadoebis ganviTarebis umniSvnelovanesi faqtorebi _
socialuri, erovnuli, demografiuli.~37
rogorc zogjer amboben, demografiul prognozebs aqvs
aqtiuri xasiaTi. isini saSualebas iZleva marto mosaxleobis
momavali maxasiaTeblebis gansazRvriT ar SemovifargloT.
perspeqtiuli gaangariSebis Sedegad miRebuli sidideebis da im
demografiul procesTa parametrebis Sedarebisas, magaliTad,
mosaxleobis raodenoba da sqesobriv-asakobrivi Semadgenloba
ama Tu im regionSi, romlebic sasurvelia socialur-
ekonomikuri poziciebidan sazogadoebisaTvis perspeqtivaSi,
SeiZleba gamovavlinoT demografiuli procesebis sasurvel da
SesaZlo maxasiaTeblebis gansxvavebulobis xarisxi. Tu aseTi
gansxvavebebi didia, maSin sazogadoebas SeuZlia miiRos zomebi
am procesTa likvidaciis an SesaZlo disproporciaTa
Sesamcireblad. maSasadame, demografiuli prognozebi
warmoadgens mniSvnelovan elements sazogadoebrivi procesebis

37
Материалы Пленума Центрального Комитета КПСС, 14-15 июня 1983 года. М., 1983, с. 13.

83
marTvaSi. isini saSualebas iZleva misi ganviTarebis
perspeqtivebis codnis safuZvelze mizanmimarTuli zemoqmedeba
movaxdinoT socialur-ekonomikur movlenebze, movaxdinoT maTi
koreqtireba qveynisaTvis saWiro mimarTulebiT.
demografiuli prognozebis aqtualoba gansakuTrebiT
izrdeba Cveni sazogadoebis grZelvadian, e.i. erTi-ori
demografiuli TaobiT win, dagegemvaze gadasvlis periodSi. am
xnis ganmavlobaSi (30-60 weli) demografiul procesTa xasiaTi
SesaZloa mniSvnelovnad icvlebodes, da Tu winaswar ar
gaviTvaliswineT es cvlilebebi da maTi Sedegebi, maSin
Secdomebi SeiZleba sakmaod seriozuli iyos.
Cvens droSi, demografiuli prognozi ar SeiZleba gavigoT
rogorc mxolod pasuxi kiTxvaze, ramdeni mcxovrebi iqneba
qveyanaSi an mis garkveul teritoriaze ama Tu im wels.
socialuri da ekonomikuri dagegmvisaTvis aucilebelia
viangariSoT mosaxleobis sqesobriv-asakobrivi da ojaxuri
Semadgenlobis perspeqtiuli ricxovnoba, xolo zogierT
SemTxvevaSi ki mosaxleobis xarisxobrivi maCveneblebic, agreTve
misi momavali ganaTlebisa da profesiuli struqtura.
maSasadame, Tanamedrove gagebiT demografiuli prognozi
Sedgeba mTeli rigi socialur-ekonomikuri da demografiuli
movlenebis urTierTdakavSirebuli Sefasebebisagan, e.i. aqvs
kompleqsuri da mravalmxrivi xasiaTi.
demografiul prognozebs, imaze damokidebulebis mixedviT,
Seexeba isini mTel qveyanas Tu mis calkeul nawilebs, Tavisi
meTodologiuri Taviseburebebi aqvs. Tu laparakia perspeqtiul
gaangariSebebze mTeli qveynis masStabiT, maSin isini
mdgomareobs Sobadobis, qorwinebis, ganqorwinebisa da

84
mokvdaobis procesTa cvlilebebis perspeqtivebis gansazRvraSi,
radganac Cvens qveyanaSi gare migracia ver axdens arsebiT
gavlenas mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da Semadgenlobis
perspeqtiul cvlilebebze.
mokavSire respublikebis, olqebis (mxareebis) mosaxleobis
perspeqtiuli gaangariSebisas, Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis
procesTa prognozTan erTad aucilebelia gvqondes migrantTa
momavali raodenobisa da sqesobriv-asakobrivi Semadgenlobis
Sefasebanic, rac mniSvnelovnad cvlis rogorc mosaxleobis
saerTo raodenobas, aseve maT Semadgenlobasac. amitom
mosaxleobis regionuli prognozebis damuSavebisas pirvel
rigSi aucilebelia migraciis gavlenis gaTvaliswineba.
axla dawvrilebiT SevCerdeT mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da
Semadgenlobis perspeqtiuli gaangariSebis meTodikaze. maTTvis
upirveles yovlisa aucilebelia sakmaod saimedo sawyisi
informaciuli baza, Cvens SemTxvevaSi saWiroa monacemebi
mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da sqesobriv-asakobrivi
Semadgenlobis Sesaxeb, agreTve Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis
procesTa momaval cvlilebaTa intensivobis Sefasebani, xolo
regionuli prognozebisaTvis, migraciis intensivobis Sefasebac.
prognozuli gaangariSebisaTvis sawyis sqesobriv-asakobriv
struqturas, rogorc yvelaze sarwmuno wyaros, ufro xSirad
mosaxleobis aRweraTa monacemebi warmoadgens.
rogorRa ganisazRvreba mosaxleobis momavali ricxovnoba
da sqesobriv-asakobrivi Semadgenloba? am problemis ganxilva
daviwyoT sakiTxis mokle istoriiT, ufro zustad rom vTqvaT,
demografiuli prognozirebis meToduri safuZvlebis
Camoyalibebis istoriiT. misi ganviTareba mniSvnelovnad iyo

85
ganpirobebuli praqtikis moTxovniT, mosaxleobis Sesaxeb
monacemebze mTavrobebisa da sxvadasxva saxelmwifo organoebis
moTxovnilebebiT, sazogadoebis ganviTarebaSi demografiuli
faqtoris rolis gagebiT, ekonomikis, statistikisa da
maTematikis sferoSi samecniero gamokvlevebis mdgomareobiT.
`demografiuli momavlis~ gansazRvris pirveli cdebi
umetesad daiyvaneboda perspeqtivaSi mosaxleobis saerTo
raodenobis gansazRvraze im pirobebSi, roca ricxovnobisa da
sqesobriv-asakobrivi struqturis cvlilebis tempebi,
praqtikulad xangrZlivi periodis ganmavlobaSi saSualod
ucvleli iyo. gavixsenoT, rom dasavleT evropis umetes
qveynebSi, yovel SemTxvevaSi XIX saukunis dasawyisamde, tipiuri
iyo maRali Sobadoba da mokvdaoba, agreTve SedarebiT
stabiluri iyo mosaxleobis sqesobriv-asakobrivi struqturac.
aseT pirobebSi mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobis prognozi,
saSualo wliuri zrdis tempebis (an mdgradi cvlilebis)
SenarCunebis hipoTezis safuZvelze, sakmaod realisturi 38 iyo.
xSirad aseTi gaangariSebebi mosaxleobis ricxvis gaormagebis
periodis gansazRvramde daiyvaneboda. magaliTad, mokvdaobis
statistikis problemebis Sesaxeb erT-erT pirveli naSromis
avtors, j.graunts, miaCnda, rom inglisis mosaxleobis
gaormagebis periodi Seadgens 280 wels. misi Tanamedrove u.peti,
romelic k.marqsis gamoTqmiT iyo, `politikuri ekonomiis mama~ _
Tvlida, rom inglisis mosaxleoba ormagdeboda 360 wlis
ganmavlobaSi.

38
XVIII saukunis cnobili frangi naturalisti J.bufoni Tvlida, rom mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba `Zveli drois nebismier epoqaSi, romelic ar unda amovirCioT, ucvlelad
udris momavali aswleulis mosaxleobis ricxvs” (ix.: Урланис Б. Ц. Проблемы динамики
населения СССР. М., 1974, с. 35). A

86
 ingliseli ekonomisti da statistikosi g.kingi Tvlida, rom
XIII_XVIII s.s. monacemebiT, inglisis mosaxleoba 435 weliwadSi
ormagdeboda. Semdgomi wlebisaTvis am qveynis mosaxleobis
ricxovnobis gaormagebisaTvis g.kingi 600 wlian periods
miiCnevda. am varaudebidan gamomdinare, man gansazRvra, rom 2000
wlisaTvis inglisis mosaxleoba 8,3 mln. adamiani iqneboda. Tu
inglisis mosaxleobis aseTi zrdis tempebidan gamovalT, maSin
1950 wels inglisSi 7,8 mln. mcxovrebs unda ecxovra. magram 1950
wels am qveynis mosaxleobam 50,6 mln. Seadgenda, xolo gaeros
prognoziT ki 2000 wlisaTvis igi 55,2 milionamde gaizrdeba.
rogorc vxedavT prognozis Secdoma sakmaod didia, da misi
usafuZvloba ukve XVIII da gansakuTrebiT ki XIX saukuneSi Canda,
roca mokvdaobis mkveTri Semcirebis gamo, mosaxleobis zrdis
tempma mateba daiwyo. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, mosaxleobis
saerTo raodenobis aseTi meTodebiT gaangariSebisas
darwmunebuli unda viyoT mosaxleobis matebis tempebis
ucvlelobis perspeqtivaSi.
swored aseTi cvlilebebis gaTvaliswinebis aucileblobam
ganapiroba Semdgomi nabiji, mosaxleobis perspeqtiuli
gaangariSebis meTodis ganviTarebaSi _ hipoTeza imis Sesaxeb,
rom mosaxleobis saerTo matebis tempebi icvleba garkveuli
kanonzomierebebiT. iyo mcdeloba, epovnaT Sesabamisi gantoleba
da mrudis forma, romlis mixedviTac Seicvleboda mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba.
ase magaliTad, iaponeli statistikosi Simoio, iaponiis
mosaxleobis Sesaxeb 1870_1925 wlebis monacemTa dinamikis
safuZvelze varaudobda, rom qveynis mosaxleobis zrda
momavalSi iqneba, e.w. meore rigis parabolis Sesabamisad. am

87
damokidebulebis safuZvelze man iangariSa, rom iaponiis
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba 1940 wels iqneba 71,7 mln. kaci, xolo
1955 w. _ 86,6 mln., faqtiurad ki mosaxleobis ricxovnoba 1940
wels Seadgenda 71,4 mln., xolo 1955 wels _ 89,8 mln. kacs, e. i.
Secdoma pirvel SemTxveveSi iyo (-0,4%), xolo meoreSi _ (+10,4%).
amasTan unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom mxolod iaponiis
SeiaraRebulma Zalebma meore msoflio omis dros daaxloebiT 2
mln. kaci dakarges. Tuki gaviTvaliswinebT samoqalaqo
mosaxleobis danakargebsac, maSin mosaxleobis ricxvi
uciloblad faqtiurze mniSvnelovnad meti iqneboda, rac
arsebiTad gazrdida am prognozis SecdomaTa masStabebsac.
gamocdilebam aCvena, rom mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobis
prognozi, matebis saerTo tempebis ucvlelobis daSvebis
SemTxvevaSi, mxolod am tempebis mdgradobis pirobebSia
samarTliani. amasTan, isini SeiZleba aseTi iyos an im periodSi,
roca jer kidev ar dawyebula Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis
Semcireba, an, roca mosaxleobis asakobriv struqturaSi
disproporciis ar arsebobisas, es procesi ukve dasrulda
qveynis mosaxleobis ZiriTad masaSi. amitom, Tuki axla ssrk-is
mosaxleobis ricxovnobis prognozs gavakeTebT, magaliTad,
rTuli procentebis formuliT, maSin mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxovnobis Sefaseba sakmaod xangrZlivi periodis prognozis
saboloo TariRisaTvis, magaliTad 2000 wlisaTvis, e.i. periodis
saboloo TariRisaTvis, SeiZleba axlos iyos faqtiurTan.
gansxvaveba `Sualeduri sazRvrebis mixedviT~ ki mTeli rigi
faqtorebis zemoqmedebiT SeiZleba sakmaod arsebiTi iyos, maT
Soris asakobrivi struqturis specifikis gamo, razec zemoT
ukve iyo saubari. perspeqtiul gaangariSebaTa am meTodis naklad

88
SeiZleba CaiTvalos isic, rom mosaxleobis matebis erTi da
igive tempi SeiZleba iyos Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis
gansxvavebuli doneebis SemTxvevaSi (magaliTad, roca Sobadobis
koeficientia 45%0 da mokvdaobis _ 35, Sobadobis 15%0 da
mokvdaobis _ 5%0). orive SemTxvevaSi bunebrivi matebis tempi
erTnairi, 10%0 iqneba.
mniSvnelovania isic, rom saxalxo meurneobrivi
dagegmvisaTvis aucilebelia vicodeT ara marto (da ara imdenad)
mosaxleobis saerTo raodenoba da struqtura saprognozo
periodis `bolosaTvis,~ aramed mosaxleobis
sqesobriv_asakobrivi Semadgenloba da ricxovnoba saprognozo
periodis yvela Sualeduri TariRisaTvis. magram Cven viciT, rom
qveyanaSi Sobadobis ricxvi struqturuli faqtorebis gavleniT
SeiZleba mniSvnelovnad icvlebodes. regionul aspeqtSi
mosaxleobis ricxovnobasa da Semadgenlobaze SeiZleba
moqmedebdes, migraciul nakadTa moculobisa da mimarTulebaTa
cvlilebebic.
amrigad, mosaxleobis ricxovnobisa da sqesobriv-asakobrivi
Semadgenlobis prognozis efeqturi meTodika saSualebas unda
iZleodes gaviTvaliswinoT, Sobadobis, mokvdaobisa da
migraciis reJimTaAcvlilebebis zemoqmedeba, agreTve qveyanaSi
(an mis nawilze) mosaxleobis sqesobriv-asakobrivi struqturis
istoriulad Camoyalibebuli specifika. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT,
aseTi meTodi unda iTvaliswinebdes demografiuli procesebis
intensivobis cvlilebaSi rogorc ZiriTad, generalur
tendenciebs, aseve struqturuli faqtorebis gavlenas
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis reJimze. igi saSualebas unda
iZleodes viangariSoT yvela wlisaTvis perspeqtivaSi ara marto

89
mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba, aramed misi sqesobriv-
asakobrivi struqturac.
ukve aRniSnuli iyo, rom mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobis
prognozirebis istoriulad pirveli da sakmaod miaxloebiTi
meTodi iyo eqstrapolaciis meTodebis gamoyeneba, e.i.
Tanamedrove an raRac maTematikuri damokidebulebis safuZvelze
cvladi, Tavisi an msgavsi socialuri da demografiuli
pirobebis mqone qveynebis, mosaxleobis zrdis tempebis
momavalze gavrceleba. drois SedarebiT mcire periodisaTvis
bunebrivi matebis ucvleli (an raRac TanmimdevrobiT cvladi)
tempebis amgvarma hipoTezebma, mosaxleobis momavali saerTo
ricxovnobis Sefasebisas SesaZloa met-naklebi saimedoobis
Sedegebi mogvces. magram, SedarebiT xangrZlivi periodisaTvis,
Sobadobis saerTo ricxvis xSiri cvlilebebis pirobebSi (xolo
regionisaTvis migraciiis donis gamoc) aseTma gaangariSebebma
SesaZloa araswori Sefasebebi mogvces.
warsulis tendenciebze damyarebul perspeqtiul
gaangariSebebs sxva naklic aqvs, romlebic miT ufro iCens Tavs,
rac ufro didia gavlili periodi. upirveles yovlisa es exeba
prognozSi, qveyanaSi Sobadobis doneze mosaxleobis faqtiurad
Camoyalibebuli asakobrivi struqturis gavlenis asaxvis
aucileblobas.
cnobilia, rom mosaxleobis momijnave sqesobriv-asakobrivi
jgufebis absoluturi ricxovnoba SeiZleba erTmaneTisagan
gansxvavdebodes da zogjer mniSvnelovnadac, rogorc samxedro
danakargebis gavlenis, aseve omis Semdgom wlebSi dabadebaTa
ricxvis meryeobis gamoc. amis sailustraciod moviyvanoT aseTi
magaliTebi. ssrk-Si 1970 wels daibada 4 226 aTasi bavSvi, 1980

90
wels 4 851 aTasi, xolo 1984 wels _ 5 389 aTasi. magram roca 80-
iani wlebis dasawyisSi dabadebuli bavSvebi miaRweven 20 da meti
wlis asaks, e.i. qorwinebaSi Sesvlis maRali intensivobis
periods, es ki iqneba momavali saukunis dasawyisSi, maSin
mosalodnelia Sobadobis `meoreuli~ talRis axali, magram
SedarebiT naklebi zomis `Cqafani.~
rogorc ukve iyo aRniSnuli, yovelwliur dabadebaTa ricxvi
SeiZleba icvlebodes gaCenebs Soris intervalTa
cvlilebebiTac. ase magaliTad, orbavSviani ojaxebis ucvleli
upiratesobis SemTxvevaSi, pirvel da meore bavSvis gaCenas
Soris intervalis Semcireba, migviyvans imasTan, rom
dabadebulTa ricxvi ojaxSi TiTqmis ar Seicvleba, xolo
yovelwliur dabadebaTaAricxvi ki SeiZleba gaiazardos.
amis gamo perspeqtiul gaangariSebebSi aucilebelia
gaviTvaliswinoT momavalSi, mosaxleobis asakobrivi
struqturis SesaZlo cvlilebebis gavlena. saWiroa perspeqtiul
gaangariSebaTa iseTi meTodis gamoyeneba, romelic saSualebas
mogvcems erTdroulad gaviTvaliswinoT, rogorc mosaxleobis
sqesobriv_asakobrivi struqturis cvlilebis gavlena, aseve
Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis tendenciaTa cvlilebebic. aseT
meTods sabWoTa demografiaSi warmoadgens `asakTa
gadanacvlebis~ meTodi an ufro zustad _ `gadanacvleba
asakebis mixedviT,~ an sxvagvarad _ `komponentTa meTodi,~
ramdganac prognozirebis am meTodis dros gaTvaliswinebulia
asakobrivi struqturis variaciebica da Sobadobisa da
mokvdaobis procesTa intesivobis cvlilebebic. SevCerdeT
gaangariSebaTa am meTodikis arsze, swored arsze, radganac misi
teqnika specialur saxelmZRvaneloebSia aRwerili.

91
 gaangariSebis sawyis bazas warmoadgens monacemebi
gansazRruli TariRisaTvis mosaxleobis sqesisa da asakis
mixedviT ganawilebis Sesaxeb, xSir SemTxvevaSi gansazRruli
wlis dasawyisisaTvis, mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebiT. aviRoT,
magaliTad, 1970 wlis monacemebi mosaxleobis sqesobriv-
asakobrivi Semadgenlobis Sesaxeb. 1970 wlis ganmavlobaSi
adamianebi nebismieri am asakidan gaxdebian erTi wliT ufrosebi
an maTi raRac nawili 1970_dan 1971 wlamde periodSi mokvdeba.
maSasadame, rom miviRoT nebismieri asakobrivi jgufis
ricxovnoba gaangariSebis dawyebidan erTi wlis Semdeg, saWiroa
mosaxleobis pirvelsawyis ricxvs gamovakloT gasul wels am
asakSi gardacvlilTa ricxvi, amiT TiTqosda isini
`gadavanacvleT~ erTi wliT win, e.i. xuTwlianebi eqvswlianebSi,
eqvswlianebi SvidwlianebSi da a.S.. aseTi saxis
`gadanacvlebisaTvis~ saWiroa vicodeT mxolod wlis
ganmavlobaSi TiToeuli asakobriv jgufSi gardacvlilTa
ricxvi.
asakobrivi mokvdaobis doneebi mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba
qalebsa da vaJebSi, aris agreTve regionuli gansxvavebebic
mokvdaobis reJimSi qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis mixedviT.
migraciis gavleniT, gansakuTrebiT axalgazrdebis soflidan
qalaqad migraciis Sedegad, sakmaod gansxvavebulia qveynis
zogierTi raionSi qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis TviT
asakobrivi struqturac ki. amis gamo `asakTa gadanacvleba,~
qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis qalebisa da vaJebisaTvis
xorcieldeba cal-calke.

92
 am gaangariSebis principuli sqema vaCvenoT pirobiT
magaliTze. 39 davuSvaT, rom aucilebelia 1982 wels 17 wlis
asakis axalgazrdebis saerTo ricxvis codna. amasTan, cnobilia,
rom qveyanaSi 15 wlis asakSi saSualod imyofeboda 1 250 aTasi
axalgazrda vaJi. imisaTvis, rom SevitanoT Sesworeba mokvdaobis
Sesaxeb, e.i. gamovricxoT gardacvalebulTa ricxvi,
visargebloT mokvdaobis cxrilis monacemebiT, kerZod ki Px

maCvenebliT, romelsac asec ewodeba _ `gadanacvlebis

koeficienti.~ igi gviCvenebs wlis ganmavlobaSi ama Tu im
asakobriv intervalSi gardacvlilTa xvedriT wils. davuSvaT,
rom P15 e.i. 15-dan 16 wlamde asakis maCvenebeli tolia, 0,887. es
niSnavs, rom 15 wlis asakamde miRweulTa erTobliobidan,
mxolod 88,7% miaRwevs 16 wlis asaks. 16-dan 17 wlamde
itervalisTvis, maCvenebeli toli iqneba 0,868 da a.S.
gadavamravlebT ra 15 wlis asakSi myofTa sawyis erTobliobas
P15 -ze, Cven miviRebT 16 wlis axalgazrda vaJebis raodenobas.

Semdegi nabijia P16 -is saSualebiT 16 wlianebis 17 wlianebad

gadaangariSeba. Cvens SemTxvevaSi 1 250 aTasi 15 wlianidan 16
wlamde miaRwevs 1 109 aTasi adamiani. Tavis mxriv 1 109 aTasi 16
wlianidan 17 wlamde miaRwevs 963 aTasi axalgazrda vaJi.
amgvarad, 1982 wels icocxlebs daaxloebiT 963 aTasi 17 wlis
axalgazrda vaJi.
TvalsaCinoebisaTvis gaangariSebis logika vaCvenoT sqemis
mixedviT, S x -iT aRvniSnoT erTwliani asakobrivi jgufebis
Sesabamisi raodenoba (Cven SemTxvevaSi vaJebis), xolo Px -iT am

39
gasagebia, rom praqtikaSi am gaangariSebis teqnika ramdenadme ufro rTulia da amitom
naSromSi mxolod misi principuli sqemaa ganxiluli. dawvrilebiT amis Sesaxeb ix.: Курс
демографии. М., 1985, гл. X.

93
intervalebis Sesabamisi `gadanacvlebis koeficientebi,~ sawyis
bazad ki miviCnioT 1979 weli.
aseTive principuli sqemiT, magram qalebis Px maCveneblebze
dayrdnobiT SeiZleba CvenTvis saWiro nebismieri asakobrivi
jgufis qalebis mosalodneli raodenobis gaangariSeba. rogorc
sqemidan Cans, am meTodis mniSvnelovani upiratesoba isaa, rom
igi saSualebas iZleva gaviTvaliswinoT mosaxleobis calkeuli
jgufebis, maT Soris bavSvTaSobis asakis qalebis, raodenobaSi
arsebul gansxvavebaTa gavlena.
magram `gadanacvlebis~ erTi, an ori wliT Catarebis Sedegad
davinaxavT (ix. nax. 1) rom erTi wlis Semdeg aRar gveqneba
`nulovani~ jgufi (gaangariSebis pirvel wels dabadebulTa
ricxvi) e.i. aRaraferi iqneba win `gadasawevi,~ xolo ori wlis
Semdeg sqemaSi Seuvsebeli darCeba ori intervali. imisaTvis,
rom gavagrZeloT gaangariSeba, saWiroa ganvsazRroT im
bavSvebis raodenoba, romlebic daibadebian gaangariSebis
pirveli `bijis~ ganmavlobaSi, e.i. vipovoT is jgufi, romelic
Semdeg SeiZleba gadavanacvloT. magaliTad, 1979 wlis sawyisi
bazidan mTeli mosaxleobis erTi wliT `gadanacvlebisas,~
saWiroa gamoviTvaloT am wlis ganmavlobaSi (1979 w.)
axaldabadebulTa ricxvi, xolo ori wliT gadanacvlebisas ki
ukve 1979 da 1980 wlebis ganmavlobaSi dabadebulTa ricxvi.
sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, saqme exeba ama Tu im wlisaTvis
Sobadobis momavali ricxvis gansazRvras.
qveyanaSi dabadebulTa saerTo raodenoba ganisazRvreba
qalTa Sobadobis arsebuli asakobrivi doniTa da ama Tu im
asakobriv jgufSi qalebis ricxviT.

94
 1979 w. 1980 w. 1981 w.
S0P0 _ _

S1P1 S 1P1 _

S2P2 S2P2 S2P2

nax. 1 mosaxleobis perspeqtiul gaangariSebaTa sqema `asakTaA

gadanacvlebis~ meTodiT

maSasadame, Tu gadavamravlebT ama Tu im bavSvTaSoris

asakobriv jgufSi myof qalTa ricxvs Sobadobis Sesabamis
asakobriv maCvenebelebze, 40 romlebic sxva araferia Tu ara
Sesabamisi jgufis 1000 qalze dabadebulTa saSualo ricxvi,
miviRebT am asakobriv jgufSi dabadebulTa saerTo ricxvs,
xolo am ricxvebis jamiT ki qveyanaSi dabadebulTa raodenobas.
gaangariSebaTa arsi vaCvenoT pirobiT magaliTze (ix. cxrili
5), risTvisac visargebloT rsfsr-Si 1959 wlis 15 ianvars
bavSvTaSobis asakSi myofi qalTa ricxvis Sesaxeb monacemebiT
da 1958_1959 wlebSi am respublikis Sobadobis asakobrivi
maCveneblebiT.41
sul erT weliwadSi rsfsr-s qalebs SeeZinebaT 2,7 mln.
bavSvi, maT Soris daaxloebiT 1,4 mln. biWi da 1,3 mln. gogo.
swored es iqneba is `nulovani~ jgufi, romelic ukve

40
.Cvens qveyanaSi miRebylia mas mivakuTnoT qalebi 15-dan 49 wlamde asakebSi.
41
davumatebT, rom 15 wlamde asakis qalTa Sobadobis SedarebiT arcTu mravalricxovani
SemTxvevebi miekuTvneba 15-dan 19 wlamde asakobriv jgufs, xolo 50 welze meti asakis
kontingentisa ki ufro xSirad, 45-dan 49 wlamde asakobriv jgufs.

95
 cxrili 5
gaCenaTa momavali ricxvis gaangariSeba

qalTa qalTa ricxvi Sobadobis gaCenaTa saerTo

asakobrivi TiToeul asakobrivi ricxvi
jgufebi (weli) asakobriv jgufSi koeficientebi (aTasobiT)
(aTasobiT) (%0)
15-19 4 474 28,4 127
20-24 5 758 157,9 909
25-29 5 340 156,4 835
30-34 6 052 101,9 533
35-39 3 949 57,7 228
40-44 3 821 19,9 76
45-49 4 485 3,0 13
sul15-49 w. asak. 33 879 _ 2 721

maCveneblis saSualebiT SeiZleba Semdeg asakebSi

`gadavanacvloT.~
magram Sobadobis da mokvdaobis asakobrivi doneebi droSi
icvleba. es cvlilebebi Tavs iCens ssrk-Si Sobadobis asakobrivi
koeficientebis sidideebSic (cxrili 6) da ??? maCveneblis
dinamikaSic.

96
 cxrili 6
ssrk-is qalTa Sobadobis asakobrivi maCveneblebi
1938-1982 wlebSi, %0-iT
dedis asaki
(weli) 1938-1939 1958-1959 1982-1983

15-49 139,5 88,7 76,0

maT Soris:
15-19 32,8 29,2 41,6
20-24 214,4 162,2 184,6
25-29 230,6 164,8 133,3
30-34 183,5 110,1 72,5
35-39 131,7 66,6 32,3
40-44 68,1 24,1 8,0
45-49 19,0 5,0 1,1

1982-1983 wlebSi, 24 welze ufrosi yvela asakobrivi

jgufisaTvis Sobadobis maCveneblebi mniSvnelovnad Semcirda,
rogorc omamdel wlebTan, aseve 1958-1959 wlebTan SedarebiT. 15-
dan 24 wlamde asakebSi maTi ramdenadme zrda, dakavSirebulia
upirveles yovlisa, xelsayreli sqesobrivi da asakobrivi
struqturis Camoyalibebis Sedegad pirveli rigiTobis bavSvebis
gaCenis ricxvis zrdasTan _ axalgazrdebis SedarebiT did
ricxvTan, agreTve pirvel qorwinebaSi Sesvlis asakisa da
pirvel da meore gaCenebs Soris intervalebis SemcirebasTan.
mTlianobaSi `asakobrivi gadanacvleba~ saSualebas iZleva
miviRoT mosaxleobis momavali ricxovnobisa da sqesobriv-
asakobrivi Semadgenlobis Sefaseba, sakmaod xangrZlivi
periodisaTvis. magram praqtikaSi am meTodis gamoyeneba
zogierTi problemis gamo garTulebulia.

97
 jer erTi, Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis maCvenebelTa doneebi
(Cvens SemTxvevaSi Px sidide da bavSvTaSobis asakis qalTa
Sobadobis asakobrivi koeficientebi) cvalebadia droSi da rac
ufro didia periodi, romlisTvisac iangariSeba prognozi, miT
ufro Zlierad SeiZleba icvlebodes isini.
meorec, es meTodi dafuZnebulia varaudze, rom mosaxleobis
raodenoba da Semadgenloba icvleba mxolod mosaxleobis
bunebrivi moZraobis procesTa gavleniT. magram `Caketili~
mosaxleobis hipoTeza marTlzomieria Cveni qveynisaTvis mxolod
mTlianobaSi, xolo misi calkeuli nawilebisaTvis (respublika,
olqi, mxare) migracia xSirad mosaxleobis raodenobis
cvlilebis aranakleb mniSvnelovan faqtors warmoadgens, vidre
bunebrivi mateba. ase magaliTad, rsfsr_Si 1973 wels
mosaxleobis 1 992 aTasi kaciT saerTo matebidan bunebrivi
matebis wilad modioda 40%, xolo migraciuli matebis wili ki
60%-s Seadgenda. amis gamo mosaxleobis momaval raodenobasa da
sqesobriv-asakobrivi Semadgenlobaze, migraciis gavlenis
gaTvaliswineba warmoadgens regionuli demografiuli
prognozebis mniSvnelovan komponents, da amaSia maTi arsebiTi
gansxvaveba mTeli qveynisaTvis gakeTebuli prognozisagan.
migraciaze Sesworebebis SemoReba yvelaze xSirad miiRweva
`gadanacvlebis~ gziT miRebul mosaxleobis axali yovelwliuri
raodenobis, e.i. Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis gamTvaliswinebeli
prognozis, gadamravlebiT migraciis saldos _ sxvaoba
Semosvlisa da gasvlis koeficientebs Soris saSualod
Sesabamisi asakis 1000 kacze _ Sesabamis asakobriv
koeficientebze.

98
 amrigad, amocana mdgomareobs mosaxleobis yvela winaswar
`gadanacvlebul~ asakobriv jgufSi migraciaze Sesworebis
SetanaSi. mimdinare aRricxvis monacemebiT (mosaxleobis e.w.
Semosvlisa da gasvlis talonebis damuSaveba) SeiZleba
daviangariSoT mocemul regionSi calkeul periodebSi
SemosulTa an gasulTa ricxvi. am monacemebiT, SeiZleba
gamoviangariSoT mosulTa da wasulTa saSualo ricxvi
mosaxleobis 1000 sulze, agreTve am sidideebs Soris sxvaoba,
romelsac migraciis saldos koeficients uwodeben. am
maCvenebels (saldos) SeiZleba hqondes `+~ niSani, Tu mosulTa
koeficienti metia wasulTa koeficientze, xolo winaaRmdeg
SemTxvevaSi ki `_~ niSani.
migracia cvlis mosaxleobis ara marto ricxovnobasa da
sqesobriv-asakobriv Semadgenlobas. misi gavlena demografiul
procesebze gacilebiT ufro rTulia. ase magaliTad, roca
qalaqSi Camodian soflis mcxovrebni, romlebic orientirebuli
arian ojaxSi bavSvTa ufro met saSualo ricxvze, vidre
qalaqelebi, maSin aman qalaqebSic SeiZleba gamoiwvios
Sobadobis ramdenadme zrda. amitom Zalian mniSvnelovania
vicodeT migrantTa ara marto saerTo ricxvi, aramed maTi
reproduqciuli qcevac, maTi, cxovrebis axal pirobebTan,
adaptaciis (Seguebis) SesaZleblobebi.
meore mniSvnelovan problemas, gansakuTrebiT grZelvadiani
(ori-sami demografiuli TaobiT) prognozirebisas, warmoadgens
gansaxlebis perspeqtiuli gaangariSebisaTvis aucilebeli
Sobadobis, mokvdaobis, migraciis doneebisa da maTi Sesabamisi
maCveneblebis gansazRvra. mosaxleobis grZelvadiani
prognozirebis ZiriTad problemas swored demografiuli

99
procesebis perspeqtiuli cvlilebis utyuari hipoTezis
SemuSaveba warmoadgens. demografiuli procesebis araswori
hipoTezis dros Tavad perspeqtiul gaangariSebaTa meTodikis
sizuste, winaaRmdegobaSi mova momavali demografiuli movlenis
miaxloebiT SefasebasTan. Cvenc swored am problemaze
SevCerdebiT.
demografiuli procesebis momavlis Sesaxeb hipoTezis
SemuSavebisas aucilebelia am procesTa intensivobis
cvlilebaTa generaluri tendenciebis gaTvaliswineba.
Sobadobis sferoSi, uwinares yovlisa, es aris mcireSvilian
ojaxebSi bavSvTa gegmiur ricxvsa da gaCenebs Soris
intervalebis dagegmvaze gadasvlis aucilebloba. 42 gadasvlis
vadebi, proporciebi da tipebi ganisazRvreba ama Tu im qveynis
(an misi nawilis) istoriuli pirobebis specifikurobiT, magram
principSi es gardauvali procesia. aqedan gamomdinareobs kidev
erTi mniSvnelovani problema: Sobadobis rogori donea
sasurveli socialisturi sazogadoebisaTvis Soreul
perspeqtivaSi, ra RonisZiebebiT da ramdenad SeiZleba
gegmazomierad vimoqmedoT, vmarToT Sobadobis, mokvdaobisa da
migraciis procesebi mTlianad? sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, saqme
exeba demografiuli politikis problemebs.
generaluri tendencia, mosaxleobis mokvdaobis donis
cvlilebis sferoSi, ufro sworad, rom vTqvaT, sicocxlis
xangrZlivobis donis cvlilebaSi, mdgomareobs mis zrdaSi,
rogorc vaJebSi, aseve qalebSi. es tendeciebi kvlav
gansxvavebulia regionul WrilSi, rac damokidebulia
mosaxleobis ama Tu im jgufis istoriaze, samedicino

42
am movlenis mizezebze wignis IV TavSia saubari.

100
momsaxurebis doneze, sayofacxovrebo da klimatur pirobebze,
ekonomikis dargebis mixedviT mosaxleobis dasaqmebis
struqturasa da rig sxva faqtorebze. magram sicocxlis
xangrZlivobis zrdis tendecia, Tanac swored tendencia,
damaxasiaTebelia ssrk-is mosaxleobisaTvis, sadac partia da
mTavroba did yuradRebas uTmobs mosaxleobis janmrTelobis
dacvas.
rogoria mosaxleobis sicocxlis xangrZlivobis zrdis
realuri rezervebi, Tu gamovalT am maCveneblis demografiaSi
miRebuli gagebidan? am perspeqtivebis Sefasebisas ar aris
saWiro metismeti optimistoba, magram ar SeiZleba momavlis
mxolod Sav ferebSi danaxvac. Tuki gamovalT samedicino
mecnierebis ganviTarebis Tanamedrove donidan, e.i. misi axali
SesaZlo miRwevebis gavlenis gauTvaliswineblad, maSin
sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobis aseTi zRvari SeiZleba iyos
vaJebisaTvis 74-75 weli, xolo qalebisaTvis 78-80 weli.
b.c.urlanisis SefasebiT sicocxlis biologiuri xangrZlivoba
Seadgens 80 wels vaJebisaTvis da 88 wels qalebisaTvis. ra Tqma
unda, am zRvris misaRwevad didi mniSvneloba aqvs socialur
faqtorebs.
mosaxleobis teritoriul gadaadgilebaTa perspeqtiuli
ganviTareba aseve mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli Cveni qveynis
sawarmoo Zalebis ganviTarebis xasiaTTan. partiis
gadawyvetilebiT dasaxuli, cimbirisa da Soreuli
aRmosavleTis sawarmoo ZalTa daCqarebuli ganviTareba
gamoiwvevs qveynis am raionebSi mosaxleobis migraciis zrdas.
Soreul perspeqtivaSi gaizrdeba Sua aziis respublikebis
mkvidri mosaxleobis moZraobac. skkp-is ck-is (1982) maisis

101
plenumis mier dasaxuli sasursaTo programis realizaciasTan
erTad SeiZleba Seicvalos migraciulii nakadebis, sofeli-
qalaqi, mimarTulebaca da moculobac. perspeqtivaSi Cvens
qveyanaSi SeiZleba velodeT migraciis intensivobis zrdas, da
amas xels Seuwyobs cxovrebis donis teritoriuli
gansxvavebulobis gaTanabreba.
rac Seexeba qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis procesTa
ganviTarebas, gansakuTrebiT ganqorwinebaTa ricxvis
dinamikasTan dakavSirebiT, isini didad iqneba damokidebuli
sazogadoebis mier ojaxisa da qorwinebisadmi pasuxismgebluri
damokidebulebis gazrdisaken mimarTuli RonisZiebebis
gatarebaze. Tumca es procesebi TavisTavad araerTgvarovania.
rogoria meTodebi, romelTa gamoyenebac SeiZleba
demografiuli movlenebis momavali donis Sesafaseblad?
zogadad SeiZleba gamovyoT Semdgomi midgomebi. jer erTi, esaa
e.w. eqspertuli Sefasebis meTodi. igi dafuZnebulia imaze, rom
movlenis momaval doned aiReba kvalificiuri specialistebis
Sefasebani, romlebic TavianTi gamocdilebidan gamomdinare
gansazRraven demografiuli movlenis maxasiaTeblebs
perspeqtivaSi. samwuxarod, es xerxi, Tundac saqme
specialistebis gasaSualebul mosazrebebs Seexebodes, ganicdis
subieqtur gavlenas. rig SemTxvevaSi gamokiTxuli specialistebi
SeiZleba orientirs iRebdnen ara realur tendeciebze, aramed
imaze, rac sasurvelia, rom iyos. miuxedavad amisa, es meTodi
SeiZleba sasargeblo iyos.
meore meTodia _ eqsprapolaciis xerxebis gamoyeneba, e.i.
arsebuli tendenciebis momavalze gavrceleba. magram is
SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes mxolod maSin, roca sruliad

102
darwmunebuli varT, rom momavalSi ar moxdeba tendenciebis
`gardatexa,~ maTi xarisxobrivi cvlilebebi. aseTi cvlilebebi
ki, roca magaliTad xdeba swrafi (istoriul aspeqtSi) gadasvla
mravalSvilianobidan mcireSvilian ojaxebze, savsebiT
SesaZlebelia. erT-erTi cnobili fizikosi d.tomsoni, romelic
skeptikurad afasebda am meTodis SesaZleblobebs, werda:
`...…tendenciebis eqstrapolacia winaswarmetyvelebis
gansakuTrebiT saSiS meTods warmoadgens.~ 43 magram
demografiuli maCveneblebis cvlilebaTa tendenciis
mdgradobis SemTxvevaSi, eqstrapolaciis meTods garkveuli
Sedegebis mocema SeuZlia, gansakuTrebiT mcire periodebisaTvis.
demografiuli procesebis prognozirebisas SeiZleba
gamoyenebul iqnas e.w. analogiebis meTodi. am SemTxvevaSi
Cveulebriv miiCneva, rom demografiul maCvenebelTa cvlilebis
kanonzomierebebi qveynis erT nawilSi iseTive iqneba, rogorc im
nawilSi, sadac es procesi ukve dasrulda. magram aq mTavaria
analogis arCevis problema, e.i. im zRvarisa, romlis miRwevasac
visaxavT miznad gaangariSebebSi.
bolo dros demografiuli procesebis momavali tendenciis
gansazRvrisas xSirad gamoiyeneba maTematikuri modelebi,
romlebic rig SemTxvevaSi saSualebas iZleva gaviTvaliswinoT
demografiuli movlenebis intensivobaze moqmedi, droSi
cvalebadi socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebis gavlena.
axla SevCerdeT demografiuli prognozirebis erT-erT
mniSvnelovan da SedarebiT naklebad Seswavlil _ maTi
sizustis Sefasebis, _ problemaze. cneba `prognozis sizuste~
sakmaod rTulia. igi ar unda gavigoT mxolod, rogorc mTeli

43
Томсон Д. Предвидимое будущее. М., 1958, с. 148.

103
mosaxleobis, aseve calkeuli asakobrivi jgufebis prognozuli
da faqtiuri raodenobis, erTi kacis sizustiT damTxveva. es
SeuZlebelia, radganac arsebobs demografiuli movlenebis
SemTxveviTi variaciebi, da Tavis Tavadac prognozis aseTi
sizuste araa saWiro ekonomikuri da socialuri dagegmvisaTvis.
TviT iseTi saguldagulod momzadebuli demografiuli
operacia, rogoricaa mosaxleobis aRwera, SeiZleba iZleodes
mosaxleobis raodenobis gansazRvrisas 1%-mde da zogjer ki met
Secdomasac. ase magaliTad, aSS-is 1970 wlis mosaxleobis
aRwera mosaxleobis 2,5%-is aRuricxaobiT Catarda. amitom roca
mosaxleobis ricxovnoba, Tundac mosaxleobis aRweris
masalebSi, erTi kacis sizustiT qveyndeba, es ufro
tradiciebisadmi xarkis gadaxdaa, vidre namdvili Sedegi. magram
ar SeiZleba mosaxleobis prognozis Sedegianoba Sefasdes
mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobisa da sqesobriv-asakobrivi
struqturebis Sesafasebeli da realuri ricxovnobis mxolod
saboloo TariRisaTvis SedarebiT. axlos unda iyos
mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobisa da demografiuli
struqturebis realuri da saprognozo raodenobebi, prognozis
`Sualeduri periodebisTvisac.~ aris iseTi situacia,
gansakuTrebiT grZelvadiani prognozirebisas, roca erT
periodSi istoriuli pirobebis gavleniT mosaxleobis faqtiuri
ricxvi SeiZleba saprognozoze meti aRmoCndes, meoreSi _
saprognozoze naklebi, xolo garkveul periodSi gadaxraTa es
sxvadasxva mimarTulebani urTierT gadaifareba, da saboloo
periodisaTvis prognozis sizuste sakmaod maRali gamodis.
saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT, rom `Sualedur periodebSi~
saprognozo monacemebis faqtiuridan gadaxra ukve mowmobs

104
prognozis dazustebis aucileblobas, e.i. xels uwyobs
garkveuli gadawyvetilebis miRebas, romlebic mimarTulia
magaliTad, Sobadobis stimulirebisaken. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT,
saqme exeba prognozis aqtiur funqcias.
magram araa sakmarisi ubralod visaubroT prognozis
sizustis Sefasebis principebze, yovelTvis sasurvelia Sefasdes
misi SesaZlo utyuaroba gaangariSebis momentSi, e.i. mis
`realizaciamde.~ statistikis TeoriaSi aris miRebul
hipoTezaTa utyuarobis Sefasebis rigi meTodebi.
upirveles yovlisa, esaa, mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis
tendenciis miRebul hipoTezaTa Semowmeba, prognozis romelime
`Sualeduri periodis~ miRwevis Semdeg, reprospeqtuli anu uku
TvliT. magaliTad, Tu prognozi iangariSeba 1970 wlis baziT
2000 wlamde, maSin 1980 wlis monacemebis qonis SemTxvevaSi
SeiZleba mosaxleobis raodenobis `gadanacvleba~ 1970 wlisaken.
Tu realurad miRebuli, da aseTi meTodiT gadaangariSebuli
monacemebi mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba, maSin aucilebelia
SeviswavloT am gansxvavebaTa mizezebi, pirvel rigSi ki TviT
demografiul procesTa cvlilebis hipoTezis utyuaroba, da
SevitanoT Sesabamisi Sesworebebi.
amocanis gadawyvetis meore gza dafuZnebulia prognozTa
variantebis gansxvavebulobis xarisxis Sefasebaze. TviT
demografiuli procesTa intensivobis cvlilebis erTiani
saerTo mimarTulebis drosac ki SesaZlebelia, kvlavwarmoebis
xarisxobrivad erTiani tipis pirobebSi, Sobadobisa da
mokvdaobis raodenobrivad gansxvavebuli hipoTezebis miReba,
magaliTad gansazRruli wlisaTvis amowuruli Sobadobis
maCveneblis _ ama Tu im realur TaobaSi 50 wels miRweul erT

105
qalze bavSvTa saSualo ricxvi _ 2,5-is, an 2,7-is, an 3,0-is miRweva.
Teoriulad rac ufro naklebia gansxvaveba mosaxleobis saerTo
raodenobis prognozTa variantebis `ukiduresobebs~ Soris, sxva
Tanabar pirobebSi miT ufro naklebia prognozis Secdomac.
magram aseTi midgoma SesaZlebelia maSin, roca ukve
Camoyalibebulia mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis erTiani tipi, e.i.
magaliTad, dasrulda mcireSvilian ojaxebze masiurad
gadasvla.
praqtikulad rogor iangariSeba ssrk-isa da misi calkeuli
nawilebis mosaxleobis prognozebi? Cvens qveyanaSi am
gaangariSebebs atarebs saxelmwifo statistikis organoebi
(ssrk-isa da mokavSire respublikebis centraluri statistikuri
sammarTveloebi) da ssrk-is da mokavSire respublikebis
saxelmwifo sagegmo komitetebi. Cveulebriv demografiuli
procesebis momavali tendenciebis gansazRvris Semdeg
prognozis yovelwliuri (an xuTwliani) `bijisaTvis~ airCeva
Sobadobis Sesabamisi asakobrivi koeficientebi,
`gadasanacvleblad~ saWiro maCveneblis Px _ `gadanacvlebis~
koeficientebi da migraciis saldos asakobrivi koeficientebi
qveynis TiTeuli msxvili regionisaTvis, ufro xSirad ki
mokavSire respublikebisaTvis.
Cveulebriv, prognozis sawyis bazas warmoadgens ukanaskneli
aRweris masalebiT miRebuli monacemebi mosaxleobis sqesobriv-
asakobrivi Semadgenlobis Sesaxeb. gaangariSebebi keTdeba cal-
calke vaJebisa da qalebisaTvis.
prognozTan erTad mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis
monacemTa safuZvelze dgeba migraciis perspeqtiuli balansi,

106
romelSic gamoiyeneba qveynis, respublikebisa da olqebis
(mxareebis) mixedviT sawarmoo ZalTa ganviTarebis gegmebi.
praqtikaSi es gaangariSebani keTdeba mTlianad qveynisa da
regionebisaTvis cal-calke. regionuli prognozebi iangariSeba
or etapad. pirvelze Tavdapirvelad xdeba mosaxleobis
asakobrivi struqturis arsebul monacemTa safuZvelze
Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis maCvenebelTa `gadanacvleba.~ am
`gadanacvlebis~ yoveli `wliuri bijis~ Sedegad miRebul
monacemebSi Segvaqvs Sesworeba migraciaze misi saldos
asakobrivi koeficientebis meSveobiT. SemdgomSi qveynis
calkeul nawilTa prognozebi uTanxmdeba erTmaneTs, an rogorc
zogjer amboben `gadainaskveba~ mTeli qveynis erTian prognozad.
arsebuli Sedegebi sistematurad udardeba mosaxleobis
ricxovnobisa da Semadgenlobis cvlilebis realur tendenciebs
da amis safuZvelze zustdeba da koreqtirdeba.
ukanasknel wlebSi sul ufro did mniSvnelobas iZens
ojaxis momavali ricxovnobis prognozebi, perspeqtivaSi maTi
Svilianobis mixedviT ganawileba. prognozTa meTodika jer
kidev ar aris ise detalurad damuSavebuli, rogorc
mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobisa da sqesobriv-asakobrivi
Semadgenlobis momavali ricxovnobis gaangariSebani. am
sakiTxebzec sawyisi informacia aseve Zalian SezRudulia,
gansakuTrebiT ojaxis tipebis mixedviT ganawileba, ssrk-isa da
qveynis regionebis mixedviT.
principSi gansxvavebuli tipis ojaxTa momavali ricxovnobis
gansazRvra SeiZleba sxvadasxva xerxiT. maT Soris yvelaze
umartivesia (da naklebad zusti) – eqstrapolaciis meTodi, e.i.

107
imis varaudi, rom sxvadasxva tipis ojaxTa ricxovnoba
momavalSi iseTive tempebiT Seicvleba, rogorc warsulSi.
magram aseTi varaudebi marTlzomieri SeiZleba mxolod
SedarebiT xanmokle periodisaTvis iyos. xangrZlivisaTvis
aucilebelia Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis perspeqtivebis, aseve
demografiuli politikis SesaZlo gavlenis gaTvaliswineba da
prognozebis amis safuZvelze gaangariSeba.
demografiuli prognozebi msoflios bevr qveyanaSi
iangariSeba. maT sistematurad aqveynebs gaero, 44 romlis
eqspertebmac bevri gaakeTes msgavsi gaangariSebis meTodikis
srulyofisaTvis, gansakuTrebuli demografiuli procesebis
xasiaTze saimedo informaciis ar qonis pirobebSi, rac metad
mniSvnelovania rigi ganviTarebadi qveynebisaTvis. es prognozebi
zustdeba da gadaisinjeba xolme. erT-erTi ukanaskneli krebsiTi
publikacia 1981 wels gamovida, igi ZiriTadad sxvadasxva
qveyanaSi 1980 wlis axlo periodebSi Catarebul mosaxleobis
aRwerebzea dafuZnebuli.
Cveulebriv gaero-s prognozebi Sobadobis momavali tempebis
cvlilebis hipoTezebze dayrdnobiT dgeba sam variantad,
romlebsac pirobiTad SeiZleba davarqvaT `mcire,~ `saSualo~ da
`didi,~ sadac `saSualo~ yvelaze ufro savaraudod iTvleba.
didi xnis ganmavlobaSi es prognozebi iangariSeboda 2000
wlamde, xolo bolo variantSi _ 2025 wlamde. moviyvanoT 1981
wels gamocemuli gaero-s prognozis `saSualo~ variantis
monacemebi msoflios mosaxleobis dinamikis Sesaxeb (faqtiuri
da prognozuli).

44
gaero _ gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia (mTargmnelis SeniSvna).

108
Tu 1000-dan 1900 wlamde (e.i. daaxlovebiT 40 demografiuli
Taoba) dedamiwaze mosaxleobis raodenoba 5,8-jer gaizarda,
maSin marto XX aswleulSi (daaxloebiT oTxi Taoba) planetaze
mcxovrebTa ricxvi gaizarda 3,8-jer, xolo 2025 wlisaTvis, e.i.
xuTi Taobis ganmavlobaSi, igi 5,1-jer gaizrdeba.
mosaxleobis zrdis tempebis aseTi daCqarebis ZiriTadi
mizezi gaxda movlena, romelmac miiRo ufro xatovani, vidre
zusti dasaxeleba _ `demografiuli afeTqeba.~ misi arsi
mdgomareobs istoriulad mokle periodSi, Cveni saukunis 50-60-
ian wlebSi, koloniuri damokidebulebisagan ganTavisuflebul
qveynebSi mosaxleobis zrdis tempebis swraf matebaSi. ase
magaliTad, Tu 1920-dan 1930 wlamde, indoeTis mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba 11,0%-iT gaizarda, ukve 1960-dan 1970 wlamde
periodSi ki _ 25,7%-iT, rac moxda maRali Sobadobis
SenarCunebis pirobebSi mokvdaobis swrafi Semcirebis xarjze.
imis gamo, rom mosaxleobis aseTi daCqareba iwvevda am
qveynis ekonomikis ganviTarebasa da cxovrebis donis zrdaSi
damatebiTi siZneleebis gaCenas, gaCnda ganviTarebadi qveynebis
socialur-ekonomikur problemaTa gadaWris uamravi recepti,
magram mxolod `demografiuli gziT,~ e.i. Sobadobis donis
Semcirebis xarjze.
sabWoTa demografebi yovelTvis Tvlidnen, da cxovrebam es
Tvalsazrisi daadastura, rom socialur-ekonomikuri
gardaqmnebis gareSe SeuZlebelia mosaxleobis zrdis tempebis
Semcireba, radganac demografiul movlenaTa intensivoba
saboloo jamSi ganisazRvreba sazogadoebis socialuri

109
 cxrili 7
dedamiwis mosaxleobis ricxovnobis dinamika

wlebi
1000 1500 1650 1800 1850 1900 1920 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2000 2025
dedamiwis
mosaxleobis
saerTo
raodenoba 275 446 545 906 1171 1608 1790 2295 2525 3037 4432 5342 6119 8195
(mln. kaci)

igive %-iT
(1900=100%) 17,1 27,7 33,9 56,3 73,8 100,0 135,2 142,7 157,0 188,7 275,6 369,5 380,5 509,6

110
struqturisa da misi ekonomikis ganviTarebiT.45
magram rogorc gamokvlevebi gviCvenebs, demografiuli
ganviTarebis grZelvadiani perspeqtivebi ufro rTulia, vidre
warmogvidgenia. socialur-ekonomikur gardaqmnaTa ganviTarebis
Sesabamisad ojaxis cxovrebiseul faseulobaTa sistemis
Secvlisas SeiZleba velodeT, mosaxleobis zrdis mudmivad
dabal tempebs, zog SemTxvevaSi ki Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis
maCvenebelTa praqtikul tolobas.
es ar niSnavs, rom im wuTSi Sewydeba mosaxleobis mateba, da
dadgeba, rogorc zogjer amboben `nulovani mateba.~ aRvniSnavT,
rom zogierTi dasavleli ekonomistisa da demografis SromebSi,
`nulovani matebis~ miRweva ganixileboda rogorc panacea yvela
socialuri da ekonomikuri problemisaTvis, maT Soris rogorc
umuSevrobis Semcirebis mniSvnelovani RonisZieba. gasagebia, rom
aseT midgomas araviTari realuri safuZveli ar gaaCnia,
radganac umuSevrobis zrda ganisazRvreba kapitalizmis
socialur-ekonomikuri safuZvlebiT, da ara demografiuli
faqtorebiT.
ukve iyo saubari ssrk-is e.w. demografiuli zrdis
potencialze. igi sakmaod maRali aqvs rig ganviTarebad
qveynebsac. ase magaliTad, 70-iani wlebis dasawyisSi is
Seadgenda daaxloebiT 1,9 bangladeSisaTvis, 1,8 _ meqsikisa da
braziliisaTvis, 1,7 _ indoeTisaTvis. es niSnavs, rom magaliTad,
Tuki indoeTSi `nulovani matebis~ maCveneblebi Camoyalibdeboda
1970 wels, e.i. Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis procesTa intensivoba
gaTanabrdeboda, maSin mxolod asakobrivi struqturis
SesaZleblobebis xarjze am qveynis mosaxleobas SeeZlo
45
amis Sesaxeb dawvrilebiT ix.: Вышневский А.Г. Мировой демографический взрыв и его проблемы. М.,
1978; Араб-Оглы Э.А. Демографические и экологические прогнозы. М., 1978.

111
gazrdiliyo 550-dan 920 mln. kacamde. ra Tqma unda, es pirobiTi
magaliTia, magram igi sakmaod TvalsaCinod gviCvenebs `zrdis
potencialis~ zemoqmedebis xarisxs. amitom, imisaTvis, rom es
potenciali `gamomuSavdes~ aucilebelia ramdenime
demografiuli Taobis sigrZis toli xangrZlivi periodi.
xanmokle perspeqtivaSi, Sobadobis Semcirebis xarjze
mosaxleobis zrdis stabilizaciis miRweva TiTqmis SeuZlebelia.
mTlianobaSi ki gaeros eqspertTa gaangariSebis erT-erTi
variantiT, dedamiwis mosaxleobis zrda stabilizirdeba XXI
saukunis bolos, daaxloebiT 12,0-13,0 mlrd. kacis doneze. ra
Tqma unda, es sakmaod pirobiTi Sefasebaa, magram igi gviCvenebs,
rom dedamiwis mosaxleobis zrdis tempebi usazRvro araa.
gavixsenoT, rom 100-ze meti wlis win f.engelsi k.kauckisadmi
gagzavnil werilSi werda: `kacobriobis ricxovnobis iseTi
zrdis abstraqtuli SesaZlebloba, romelic gamoiwvevs
aucileblobas, rom am zrdas zRvari daedos, ra Tqma unda,
arsebobs. magram Tuki komunisturi sazogadoeba iZulebuli
iqneba areguliros adamianebis warmoeba, iseve rogorc manamde
ukve daaregulirebs nivTebis warmoebas, maSin is, da mxolod is,
SeZlebs Searulos es siZneleebis gareSe.46
demografiuli prognozebis SemuSaveba warmoadgens
demografiul gamokvlevaTa erT-erT mniSvnelovan mimarTulebas.
aq bevris gakeTebaa saWiro, gansakuTrebiT Sobadobisa da
migraciis tendenciebis prognozirebisa da regionuli
demografiuli prognozebis damuSavebis xerxebis meTodikis
ganviTarebis sferoSi.

46
Маркс К., Э.нгельс Ф. Соч., т. 35, с. 124.

112
 Tavi IV
ssrk-is mosaxleoba guSin, dRes, xval

25 welze cota meti gavida (1957 w.), roca ssrk-Si

mosaxleobis raodenobam gadaaWarba 200 mln.-s, xolo ukve 1985
wlis dasawyisisaTvis Cvens qveyanaSi iyo 276,3 mln. mcxovrebi.
ruseTis imperiis pirveli (da ukanaskneli) 1897 wlis
mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebiT, romelmac saSualeba misca,
rom mieRoT cnobebi qveynis mTeli mosaxleobis Sesaxeb, igi
Seadgenda 124,6 mln. kacs.
mcire moculobis naSromSi SeuZlebelia ssrk-is
mosaxleobis mravali wlis ganviTarebis istoriis gadmocema.
amitom SevecdebiT es SemTxvevebi vaCvenoT fragmentulad, e.i.
mosaxleobis suraTi warsulSi, misi dRevandeli da xvalindeli
dRe `Sualeduri etapebis~ gareSe.

Cveni qveynis mosaxleoba warsulSi

informaciis saimedo wyaroebis ar arsebobis gamo Znelia

ramdenadme saimedo monacemebis moyvana warsulSi Cveni qveynis
mosaxleobis raodenobis Sesaxeb. moviyvanoT `statistikamdeli~
periodis ruseTis mosaxleobis saerTo raodenoba sabWoTa
mkvlevarebis Sefasebebis mixedviT.
amave SefasebiT Cveni aTaswleulis dasawyisSi (1000 w.)
dedamiwis mosaxleoba Seadgenda 275_305 mln. kacs, da 1900 wels
ki _ 1608_1655 mln. kacs.

113
 cxrili 8
ruseTis mosaxleobis ricxovnobis dinamika47

wlebi
0 1000 1500 1650 1800 1850 1900
mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba 5 10 15 20 50 75 130
(mln. kaci)

rogorc moyvanili monacemebidan Cans, Cveni aTaswleulis

pirvel aswleulebSi (1000-1500 w.w.) ruseTis mosaxleoba
izrdeboda umniSvnelod. mtruli Tavdasxmebi, SimSili,
epidemiebi iwvevda imas, rom mosaxleobis raodenoba 500 wlis
ganmavlobaSi izrdeboda Zalian nela. da mxolod daaxloebiT
1650 wlidan dawyebuli, roca qveyanaSi aRar iyo masiuri
gamanadgurebeli Tavdasxmebi da epidemiebi, mosaxleobam
TandaTanobiT daiwyo zrda, xolo XIX saukunisTvis,
gansakuTrebiT ki mis meore naxevarSi, zrdis es tempebi sakmaod
maRali gaxda.
gasuli saukunis meore naxevrisaTvis ukve gvaqvs
demografiul maCvenebelTa Sefasebebi, roml;ebic dafuZnebulia
geografiul da samedicino eqspediciebis specialur
gamokvlevaTa masalebze, saerobo statistikis monacemebze,
dabadebisa da gardacvalebis, ufro zustad ki naTlobis,
jvriswerisa da wesis agebis saeklesio registraciis aqtebze.
aseTi gamokvlevebisAmasalebi, romlebic umetesad mxolod
mosaxleobis mcire jgufebs moicavs, saSualebas iZleva, rom
maTematikuri modelirebis Tanamedrove meTodebis gamoyenebiT
warmodgena Segveqmnas XIX saukunis meore naxevarSi, ruseTSi
mimdinare demografiuli procesebis xasiaTze.

47
Народонаселение стран мира, 3-е изд. М., 1984, с. 8.

114
 aq saWiroa gavakeToT erTi dazusteba. saqme imaSia, rom
yvela, an TiTqmis yvela es cnoba, exeba ruseTis evropul
nawils. rac Seexeba Sua aziis Tanamedrove respublikaTa
teritoriebs, iq msgavsi informacia TiTqmis ar arsebobs.
cnobilia, rom demografiul procesTa xasiaTi didad aris
ganpirobebuli sazogadoebis socialuri struqturiTa da
gabatonebuli warmoebiTi urTierTobis xasiaTiT. Tu gamovalT
ruseTis imperiis 1897 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris masalebidan,
maSin qveynis mosaxleoba (Tanamedrove sazRvrebSi) Seadgenda
124,6 mln. kacs, maT Soris 15% iyo qalaqis da 85% soflis
mosaxleoba. mosaxleobis socialuri struqturisaTvis
damaxasiaTebeli iyo eqsploatatoruli klasis warmomadgenelTa
maRali xvedriTi wili. aRweraSi registrirebuli iyo 96,9 mln.
glexi ojaxiT da 1 850 aTasi Tavadi da maTi ojaxis wevri, 589
aTasi qristianuli samRvdeloebis warmomadgeneli da maTi
ojaxis wevri, 343 aTasi e.w. memkvidreobiTi da piradad sapatio
moqalaqe da maTi ojaxis wevri, 281 aTasi vaWari ojaxebiT.
1913 wlis SefasebiT qveyanaSi iyo 16,3%, anu daaxloebiT 26
mln. eqsplotatoruli klasis warmomadgeneli da maTi ojaxis
wevri, muSaTa klasis ricxovnoba (14,6%) 1913 wels Seadgenda
daaxleobiT 23 mln. kacs, xolo glexoba ki _ mosaxleobis
daaxloebiT 67%-s, anu TiTqmis 106 mln. kacs.
1897 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris masalebi ise iyo
damuSavebuli, rom muSaTa klasis, rogorc mosaxleobis
damoukidebeli da mniSvnelovani socialuri jgufis gamoyofa
mxolod specialur gadaangariSebaTa safuZvelzea SesaZlebeli.
am amocanis gadawyveta SeZlo v.i.leninma. naSromSi
`kapitalizmis ganviTareba ruseTSi~ aRweris monacemTa

115
gadajgufebis safuZvelze man aCvena, rom proletarebi da
naxevrad proletarebi Seadgendnen qveynis mosaxleobis 50,7%-s,
anu 63,7 mln. kacs, xolo uRaribesi wvrili mepatroneebi _ 28,5%-
s, anu 35,8 mln. kacs. revoluciis baza gaxda swored es
socialuri jgufebi, romlebic mTeli mosaxleobis 79,2%-s
Seadgendnen.
imave wlebSi ruseTis mosaxleobis umetesoba saWmlis
mudmivi ukmarisobis, SimSilis, xSiri mousavlianobisa da
epidemiebis afeTqebaTa Zalian mZime pirobebSi cxovrobda.
ukeTesi ar iyo, arc muSaTa pirobebi, romlebic cxovrobdnen,
ufro zustad arsebobdnen, ukidures siviwroveSi, WuWysa da
antisanitariaSi. XX saukunis dasawyisSi glexebisa da muSebis
umravlesobaSi kvebis produqtebis moxmarebis struqtura ar
Seesabameboda biologiur moTxovnilebebs. ase, magaliTad, 1909
wels moskovis guberniis bogorodis mazraSi, cxoveluri
warmoSobis cilebis moxmareba, e.i. kvebis umniSvnelovanesi
elementis moxmareba, erT adamianze saSualod dRe-RameSi 10,5 g.-
s Seadgenda, kostromis guberniis seredis mazraSi (1910 w.) _ 14,5
g.-s.
mosaxleobis ganaTlebisa da kulturis dabali done (1897
wlis aRweris monacemebiT 9-dan 49 wlamde asakebSi wera-kiTxva
icoda qalebis mxolod 16,6%-ma, xolo soflad ki ufro
naklebma _ 12,5%) ganapirobebda mis dabal sanitarul
kulturasac.
ai ras werda SedarebiT axlo warsulSi axalSobilTa da
dedaTa cxovrebis pirobebze cnobili sabWoTaAdemografi da
social-higienisti s.a.tomilini `...mSobiarobidan meore-mesame
dRes is (deda –a.k.) xSir SemTxvevaSi ukve dgeba loginidan ...

116
bavSvs yoveldRe ar abanaveben. xSiri tirilis dros arc Tu ise
iSviaTad mas yayaCos Tavebis naxarSiT awynareben. sami Tvis
asakidan ZuZus bavSvs aZleven borSs, kartofils, um
bostneuls ... organizmis normaluri kvebis funqciebi iSleba da
bavSvTa mokvdaobis statistika erTiT matulobs.~ 48 SevniSnavT,
rom aq saubaria ukve Cven saukuneSi ukrainaSi Catarebuli
gamokvlevis Sedegebze.
rogorc ukve iyo aRniSnuli demografiuli SemTxvevebis
ricxvze mniSvnelovnad moqmedebs mosaxleobis asakobrivi
Semadgenloba. am periodSi ruseTis mosaxleoba Zalian
axalgazrda iyo, xolo moxucTa xvedriTi wili ki mcire. ase,
magaliTad, 19 wlamde axalgazrdebi Seadgendnen mosaxleobis
48,8%-s, 20-59 wlisebi _ 44,2%-s, 60 wlisa da meti asakisani ki
mxolod _ 7%-s.
am wlebSi mokvdaobis struqturisa da mizezebis Sesaxeb
zusti monacemebi praqtikulad ar arsebobs. magram Sefasebebi,
romlebic XX saukunis dasawyiss ekuTvnis, gviCvenebs, rom
ruseTSi infeqciuri daavadebebiT gamowveuli mokvdaoba
gacilebiT maRali iyo, vidre dasavleT evropis qveynebSi.
Tuki XX saukunis dasawyisSi skandinaviis qveynebSi yvaviliT
gamowveuli mokvdaoba praqtikulad likvidirebuli iyo,
ruseTSi igi klav maRali rCeboda, iseve rogorc sxva
infeqciuri daavadebebiT gamowveuli mokvdaoba. ase magaliTad,
1892 wels qolerisagan gardaicvala aranakleb 300 aTasi
adamiani, xolo 1910 wels _ 110 aTasi adamiani.
magram qveynis progresuli sazogadoebriobis mcdelobis
Sedegad mokvdaoba swrafad Semcirda, pirvel rigSi ruseTis

48
Томилин С.А. Демография и социальная гигиена. М., 1975, с. 222.

117
evropul nawilSi, raSic didi roli iTamaSa SedarebiT
xelmisawvdomi samedicino daxmarebis _ e.w. `saerobo medicinis~
ganviTarebam. miuxedavad imisa, rom Tanamedrove TvalsazrisiT
maSin eqimebi Zalian cota iyo: 1913 wels evropul ruseTSi erTi
eqimi modioda 18 aTas mcxovrebze, cimbirSi _ 24 aTasze,
kavkasiaSi _ 28 aTasze, xolo Sua aziaSi _ 61 aTasze, es mainc
iZleoda saSualebas, rom gatarebuliyo infeqciasTan brZolis
minimaluri RonisZiebani, mosaxleobisaTvis aRmoeCinaT Tundac
elementaruli daxmareba. Sedegad Semcirda sxvadasxva
infeqciisagan gardacvlilTa ricxvic. ase magaliTad, 1891-1895
wlebSi ruseTSi yvavilisagan gardaicvala 73 aTasi adamiani,
1911-1914 wlebSi _ 29 aTasi, xolo tifiT Sesabamisad 113 da 60
aTasi adamiani.49
cxrili 9…
zogirTi infeqciuri daavadebiT gamowveuli mokvdaoba
ruseTsa da dasavleT evropis qveynebSi 1905-1909 wlebSi
(10 000 kacze)50
gardacvalebis ruseTi inglisi SvedeTi norvegia
mizezebi
yvavili 50,8 0,1 0,01 0,2
wiTela 106,2 30,9 6,0 6,0
qunTruSa 134,8 9,5 6,9 3,9
xunagi 64,0 16,9 20,3 21,6

ramdenadme Semcirda erT wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaobac.

ase magaliTad, evropuli ruseTis 50 guberniis marTlmadidebel
mosaxleobaSi erT wlamde asakis bavSvis gardacvalebis

49
dawvrilebiT amis Sesaxeb ixileT winamdebare wignis Tavi II.
50
Новосельский С.А. Смертность и продолжительность жизни в России. Пг., 1916, с. 154.

118
albaToba 1874-1883 wlebSi Seadgenda 327%0-s biWebisaTvis da
283%0-s gogonebisaTvis, xolo 1907-1910 wlebSi _ Sesabamisad 276
da 243%0. miuxedavad imisa, rom Semcireba SesamCnevi iyo, mainc
erT wlamde asakis bavSvTa mokvdaobis done metad maRali
rCeboda _ 1913 welsac ki 1000 dabadebulze sicocxlis pirvel
wels kvdeboda 269. uxeSad rom vTqvaT, yoveli meoTxe
axalSobili kvdeboda sicocxlis pirvel wels. Sua aziaSi ki
sadac im droisaTvis samedicino daxmareba praqtikulad ar
arsebobda, es maCvenebeli iyo 300%0, xolo zogierT wlebSi 600-
700%0.51
rogorc ukve aRvniSneT mokvdaobis dinamikis ganmazogadebel
da azrobrivad Sebrunebul maxasiaTebels warmoadgens
mosaxleobis sicocxlis xangrZlivoba gaCenisas. am maCveneblis
gaangariSeba sakmaod bevr informacias moiTxovs, magram sabWoTa
demografebma rigi detaluri gaangariSebiT SeZles,
ganesazRvraT am maCveneblis dinamika evropuli ruseTis
mosaxleobisaTvis.
cnobili statistikosisa da demografis m.v.ptuxas
gaangariSebiT 1896-1897 wlebSi evropul ruseTSi rusi
mosaxleobis sicocxlis xangrZlivoba Seadgenda vaJebisaTvis
27,5 wels, xolo qalebisaTvis _ 29,8 wels, ukrainelebSi _ 36,3
da 36,8-s, belorusebSi _ 35,5 da 36,8-s, estonelebSi ki _
Sesabamisad 41,6 da 44,6 wels. rusebSi, ukrainelebsa da
belorusebSi SesamCnevia Zalian mcire sxvaoba qalisa da vaJis
sicocxlis xangrZlivobaSi, rac qalebis maRal mokvdaobasTan
aris dakavSirebuli. mTlianad evropuli ruseTis 50 guberniaSi

51
revoluciis wina periodSi Tanamedrove uzbekeTis teritoriaze muSaobda mxolod 128
eqimi da 234 saSualo samedicino personali. 10 000 mcxovrebze gadaangariSebiT iyo 0,3
eqimi, xolo soflad 1913 wels _ 0,06.

119
ki es maCvenebeli 1896-1897 wlebSi Seadgenda 31 wels vaJebisaTvis
da 33 wels qalebisaTvis.
cxrili 10
gaCenisas sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivobis
dinamika evropuli ruseTis mosaxleobisaTvis (wlobiT)

1838-1850 1874-1889 1894-1903 1904-1913

vaJebi 24,6 28,0 30,8 32,4

qalebi 27,0 30,2 32,6 34,5
sxvaoba qalebsa da vaJebs +2,4 +2,2 +1,8 +2,1
Soris (wlobiT)

Sua aziis respublikebSi XIX saukunis bolos sicocxlis

xangrZlivoba orive sqesisaTvis, zogierTi specialistis mier
fasdeba 27,5-dan 30,0-mde wlis farglebSi, e.i. mniSvnelovnad
mcired, vidre evropul ruseTSi. SegaxsenebT agreTve, rom XIX
saukunis bolos dasavleT evropis umetes qveynebSi mosaxleobis
sicocxlis xangrZlivoba 40-dan 50 wlamde SualedSi meryeobda.
axla SevCerdeT demografiuli procesebis meore
mniSvnelovan komponentze _ Sobadobaze da am movlenasTan
mWidrod dakavSirebul qorwinebasa da ganqorwinebaze.
imdroindeli ruseTisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli iyo adreuli da
TiTqmis sayovelTao qorwineba, gansakuTrebiT ki soflis
mosaxleobaSi. evropul ruseTSi XIX saukunis bolosa da XX
saukunis dasawyisSi 45-49 wlis asakebSi, arasdros ar iyo
qorwinebaSi vaJebis mxolod 4% da qalebis 5%. SedarebisaTvis
aRvniSnavT, rom es maCveneblebi didi britaneTisaTvis iyo 12%
vaJebisaTvis da 15% qalebisaTvis. evropul ruseTSi pirvel

120
qorwinebaSi Sesvlis saSualo asaki Seadgenda qalaqeli
qalebisaTis 21,2 wels, soflelebisaTvis _ 23,1 wels, xolo
vaJebisaTvis _ Sesabamisad 23,5 da 26,5 wels.
profesiuli momzadebisa da ganaTlebis ar mqone qalTa
umetesobisaTvis qorwinebaSi Sesvla iyo erTaderTi da
tradiciulad SesaZlo cxovrebiseuli gza, qorwinebis gareSe
igi rogorc pirovneba arafers ar warmoadgenda. yvela es
warmodgena adamianTa gonebaSi eklesiisa da moqmedi
kanonmdeblobis meSveobiT mtkicdeboda, romlis Tanaxmadac
coli valdebuli iyo damorCileboda qmars, gamoeCina misdami
`pativiscema da erTguleba.~ mas ar SeeZlo misi Tanxmobis
gareSe emarTa qoneba, mieRo profesia, Seecvala sacxovrebeli
adgili.
es social-ekonomikuri mizezebi iwvevda imasac, rom
meuRleTa TanxmobiT qorwinebis Sewyveta, rogorc masobrivi
movlena revoluciis wina wlebSi praqtikulad SeuZlebeli iyo,
gansakuTrebiT ki marTlmadidebel mosaxleobaSi. ganqorwineba
qalisaTvis ekonomikur katastrofas niSnavda. is ikicxeboda
sazogadoebrivi azris mier da dauSvebeli iyo gabatonebuli
moralis poziciebidan. rogorc cnobilia, im wlebSi qorwineba
formdeboda eklesiis mier da marTlmadideblebisaTvis misi
gauqmeba mxolod umaRles saeklesio organos _ uwmindes sinods
SeeZlo. is sanqcionirebas ukeTebda ganqorwinebis SemTxvevaTa
SezRudul ricxvs, jer kidev nikoloz I-is mier miRebuli
kanonmdeblobis safuZvelze. am kanonebis Tanaxmad, qorwinebis
darRevis safuZveli SeiZleba yofiliyo mxolod e.w. `meuRlis
ugzo-ukvlod dakargva,~ `erT-erTi meuRlisaTvis yvela uflebis
CamorTmeva,~ yvelaze xSirad misi xangrZlivi vadiT dapatimrebis

121
dros, agreTve `damtkicebuli sayvarlianoba,~ e.i. mowmeebis
CvenebiT dadasturebuli colqmruli Ralati. XX saukunis
dasawyisSi swored es mizezi iyo yvela registrirebul
ganqorwinebaTa 95%-is sababi. Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom
saeklesio instanciebSi saqmis warmoeba Zviri Rirda, maSin
gasagebi gaxdeba, rom ganqorwinebas ZiriTadad SeZlebuli
adamianebi momarTavdnen.
1882-1886 wlebSi ruseTis marTlmadidebel mosaxleobaSi
gaformebul iqna 5,1 aTasi ganqorwineba, anu daaxloebiT 0,02
ganqorwineba 1000 mosaxleze, e.i. ganqorwinebis koeficienti iyo
daaxloebiT _ 0,02%0. 1912 wels registrirebuli iyo 3,5 aTasi
ganqorwineba, ganqorwinebis koeficienti _ 0,03%0.
yvelaferi rac ganqorwinebis Sesaxeb iyo naTqvami, ekuTvnis
ruseTis imperiis marTlmadidebel mosaxleobas, romelic 1897
wlis aRweriT qveynis mosaxleobis 69,4%-s Seadgenda. Tumca
qristianuli sarwmunoebis sxva warmomadgenlebic (kaTolikebi,
protestantebi) aseve negatiurad iyvnen ganwyobili
ganqorwinebis mimarT. qmris iniciativiT ganqorwinebas islami
gacilebiT liberalurad epyroboda, yovel SemTxvevaSi
formalurad mainc. magram ganqorwinebis realuri donis
Sefaseba, raime informaciis uqonlobis gamo, praqtikulad
SeuZlebelia.
qorwinebis Sewyvetis donis Sefasebisas saWiroa
gaviTvaliswinoT, im periodSi arsebuli mokvdaobis maRali
done. arsebiTad qorwinebis Sewyveta, romelic SeiZleba
ganqorwinebis an erT-erTi meuRlis sikvdilis Sedegi yofiliyo,
_ Zalin xSiri movlena iyo, upirveles yovlisa daqvrivebis gamo.
amasTanave, uSualod 1897 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebiT,

122
daqvrivebulTa ricxvis gansazRvra sakmaod rTulia, radganac
qvrivTa didi nawili, gansakuTrebiT ki vaJebi ganmeorebiT
qorwinebaSi Sediodnen.
am periodisaTvis tipiuria Sobadobis maRali intensivoba,
ufro zustad rom vTqvaT, orientacia misi donis Segnebulad
SeuzRudaobaze.
aq aucilebelia gavakeToT ramdenime dazusteba. aRvniSnavT,
rom arsebuli warmodgena ojaxTa mravalSvilianobis Sesaxeb
arazustia _ ojaxebi iyo mravalSobadobiani, xolo maRali
CvilTa mokvdaoba (marto pirvel wels kvdeboda axalSobilTa
25-30%, 5 wlamde ki _ TiTqmis 40%, Sua aziaSi kidev ufro meti)
iwvevda imas, rom Sromisunarian asakamde aRwevda daaxloebiT
naxevari.52
amitom im wlebSi Sobadobis donis Sefasebisas saWiroa
mokvdaobis arsebuli maRali donis gaTvaliswineba, e.i.
gaviangariSoT, b.c.urlanisis gamoTqmiT, ara faqtiuri, aramed
`efeqturi Sobadobis~ maCvenebeli, e.i. bavSvTa Warbmokvdaobaze
Sesworebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
am sidideebs Soris gansxvaveba, vaCvenoT magaliTze. 1913
wels revoluciamdel ruseTSi Sobadobis zogadi koeficienti
Seadgenda 45,5%0, xolo 5 wlamde asakis maRali mokvdaobis
SesworebiT _ mxolod 25,9%0-s, e.i. realuri Sobadoba Seadgenda
sawyisi donis daaxlovebiT 57%-s. SedarebisaTvis SevniSnavT,
rom ukve 1926 wels Sobadobis efeqturi da realuri

52
Turqistanis mxareSi (Sua aziis Tanamedrove respublikebSi) qalebs, romlebmac gaaCines
15 Svili, maSindeli mokvdaobis maRali donis pirobebSi cocxali rCebodaT mxolod sami
bavSvi. a.g.viSnevskim (ix.: Знание – сила, 1984, №4, с. 12-13.) yuradReba miaqcia saintereso faqts.
a.s.puSkinis `kapitnis qaliSvilis~ mTavari gmiris petruSa grinevis mSoblebs sul cxra
Svili hyavdaT. misi yvela da-Zma `Cvil asakSi daixoca~.

123
koeficientebis Tanafardoba iyo 73%, xolo 1970 wels _ TiTqmis
95%.
roca im periodis Sobadobis doneze vsaubrobT, ar SeiZleba
vifiqroT, rom Sobadobis SezRudvis ar arsebobis dros,
bavSvTaSobis funqciebi, an ufro sworad rom vTqvaT, aseTi
SesaZleblobani bavSvTaSobis asakis bolomde, e.i. 49-50 wlamde
iyo SenarCunebuli. antisanitariuli pirobebi, sxvadasxva saxis
anTebiTi procesebi, Zalian naadrev qorwinebaTa maRali
xvedriTi wili, samedicino daxmarebis ar arseboba, mZime
fizikuri Sroma, iwvevda imas, rom praqtikulad 35-40 wlis
Semdeg, momdevno bavSvis yola muSaTa da glexTa qalebis
mxolod umniSvnelo nawils SeeZlo. arapirdapiri gziT es
imiTac dasturdeba, rom ukve Cvens droSi mosaxmarad martivi,
efeqturi, SedarebiT iafi anTebis sawinaaRmdego preparatebis
(antibiotikebi, sulfamidebi) farTo samkurnalo praqtikaSi
danergvis Semdeg, aseve samedicino daxmarebis qselis
gafarToebasTan da pirvel qorwinebaSi Sesvlis saSualo asakis
zrdasTan erTad SeimCneoda 40 wlis da meti asakis qalebSi
Sobadobis maCveneblis zrda, im regionebSi, sadac Sobadobis
Segnebulad SezRudva ar gamoiyeneboda.
TiTqmis XIX saukunis bolo aTwleulebamde ruseTSi
migraciis done, e.i. am SemTxvevaSi, mosaxleobis axal
sacxovrebel adgilze sakuTari surviliT gadaadgileba,
SedarebiT mcire iyo. ruseTSi kapitalizmis ganviTarebam es
procesi daaCqara, Tavdapirvelad saSovarze wasvlis formiT,
e.i. glexebis xangrZliv, xSirad ki mudmiv samuSaoze qalaqad
wasvla, romlis drosac xSir SemTxvevaSi maTi ojaxebi rCeboda

124
soflad, rac ojaxuri kavSiris faqtiuri gawyvetis gamo ar
SeiZleboda, rom Sobadobis intensivobaze ar asaxuliyo.
kapitalizmis ganviTarebasTan erTad, gansakuTrebiT
stolipinis reformis Semdeg, daCqarda soflis daSlis procesi,
misgan `zedmeti~ mosaxleobis `gayra,~ romlebic midiodnen
qalaqad `ukeTesi xvedris~ saZebnelad, axal miwebze qveynis
aRmosavleTSi.
1887-1915 wlebSi gadasaxlebulTa saerTo ricxvma 8 145 aTasi
kaci Seadgina, maT Soris 83% _ cimbirisa da yazaxeTSi da _ 7%
Crdilo kavkasiaSi. sabWoTa demografebis SefasebiT 1901-1910
wlebSi ruseTidan wasuli da sxva qveynebSi darCenil pirTa
ricxvi daaxloebiT 1,7 mln. kacs Seadgenda. qalaqebSi maSindeli
maRali mokvdaobis pirobebSi, gansakuTrebiT iseTebSi, rogoric
iyo moskovi da peterburgi, maTi mosaxleoba ZiriTadad
migraciis xarjze izrdeboda. marto 1897-dan 1913 wlamde
periodSi ruseTis qalaqis mosaxleoba 18,4 mln.-dan 28,4 mln.
kacamde, e.i. 10 mln. mcxovrebiT gaizarda, da ZiriTadad
soflidan qalaqad Camosuli migrantebis xarjze.
SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom ruseTis imperiis
mosaxleobisaTvis, latviisa da estoneTis gamoklebiT,
daaxloebiT XIX saukunis 70-80-ian wlebamde damaxasiaTebeli iyo
kvlavwarmoebis erTiani tipi, Segnebulad SeuzRudavi Sobadobis,
mokvdaobis maRali intensivobisa da sicocxlis dabali
xangrZlivobis, ganqorwinebis praqtikulad ar arsebobisa da
mosaxleobis SedarebiT mcire teritoriuli moZraobis
safuZvelze.

125
 qveynis mosaxleoba oqtombris Semdeg

ukve XIX saukunis bolo aTwleulSi Cvens qveyanaSi

SeimCneoda cvlilebebi demografiul procesTa xasiaTSi. maTi
transformaciis intensivoba gansxvavdeboda qveynis raionebis
mixedviT. swrafad mimdinareobda cvlilebebi baltiispireTis
raionebSi, Semdeg centralur ruseTSi, gansakuTrebiT mis
dasavleT nawilsa da msxvil qalaqebSi. es cvlilebebi
praqtikulad ar igrZnoboda Sua aziasa da amierkavkasiaSi,
sadac socialur-ekonimikuri pirobebis specifika
ewinaaRmdegeboda am procesebs.
qveynis mosaxleobis ganviTarebaze did gavlenas axdenda
omebi. pirveli msoflio omis wlebSi ruseTis danakargebis
saerTo ricxvi 2 mln. kaciT aris Sefasebuli. Zviri daujda
Cvens xalxs faSizmze gamarjveba _ 20 mln. sicocxleze meti. da
es mxolod e.w. pirdapiri danakargebia, e.i. saomari moqmedebebis
msxverpli samxedro mosamsaxureebi, represiebisagan da samxedro
moqmedebebisagan daRupuli samoqalaqo mosaxleoba. xolo
ramdeni bavSvi ar gaCnda am qveyanaze maTi potenciuri dedebisa
da mamebis daRupvis gamo, ramdenma qalma ver SeZlo gaTxoveba,
imitom, rom maTi saqmroebi daiRupnen. omis dros, siZneleebisa
da gaWirvebis gamo, mosaxleobis sikvdilianoba zurgSic
izrdeboda. es arapirdapiri danakargebi sakmaod mniSvnelovania
da zogierTi gaangariSebiT daaxloebiT 22 mln. kacs Seadgens.
sabWoTa demografebis gaangariSebiT, rom ar yofiliyo omi, 1959
wlis dasawyisisaTvis ssrk-is mosaxleoba 255 mln. adamiani
iqneboda, magram faqtiurad igi 209 mln., e.i. 46 mln.-iT naklebi
iyo. aseTia omis fasi.

126
 igi mZimed aisaxa sabWoTa xalxis mravali Taobis
janmrTelobaze _ imaTzec, vinc omobda, da imaTzec, visi
bavSvobac omisa da omis Semdgom pirvel mZime wlebs daemTxva.
es Sedegebi jer kidev igrZnoba Cvens droSic. saomari
moqmedebis uSualo monawileebi axla maRal asakebSi imyofebian,
roca izrdeba avadmyofobis SesaZlebloba, rac aisaxeba kidec
mokvdaobis Tanamedrove doneze.
qveynis mosaxleobis asakobrivi Semadgenloba, romelic rigi
istoriuli movlenis, maT Soris omebis zemoqmedebis Sedegad
yalibdeba, gavlenas axdens demografiuli movlenebis sididezec,
upirveles yovlisa qorwinebis, Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis
wliur ricxvebze. amitom mosaxleobis asakobrivi Semadgenlobis
analizi aris pirveli nabiji – saerTod mosaxleobis
SeswavlaSi.
aseTi analizis erT-erT meTods warmoadgens asakobrivi
piramidebis ageba. grafikuli agebis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom
grafikis vertikalze gadaizomeba asaki, xolo horizontalze
mosaxleobis raodenoba (absolutur ricxvebSi an procentobiT),
sadac marcxniv ganlagebulia monacemebi vaJebis Sesaxeb,
marjvniv _ qalebis Sesaxeb, rac maTi Sedarebis saSualebas
iZleva.
nax. 2-ze gamosaxulia ssrk mosaxleobis asakobrivi piramida.
Cven vxedavT, rom Sobadoba omis wlebSi mkveTrad Semcirda (25-
dan 30 wlamde asakobrivi jgufi) Semdeg SesamCnevia Sobadobis
zrda omis Semdgom pirvel wlebSi, Semdeg SeimCneva misi dacema.
45-dan 55 wlamde asakebSi vaJebis ricxvi mniSvnelovnad naklebia
qalebisaze. radganac Sesabamisi (1915-1925) wlebSi dabadebuli

127
vaJebi, omis periodSi aqtiurad monawileobden saomar
moqmedebebSi.

nax. 2 ssrk mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqtura 1970 w. aRweris

monacemebiT.

magram axla es Taobebi (1985 wels isini 58 da meti wlisani

iyvnen) ZiriTadad gamovidnen bavSvTaSobis asakidan da am
asakebSi vaJebisa da qalebis ricxovnobas Soris arsebuli
disproporciebi ukve uSualod veRar axdens gavlenas Sobadobis
doneze.
oqtombris revoluciis Semdeg ssrk-is mosaxleoba ara marto
raodenobrivad gaizarda, aramed masSi Zireuli, xarisxobrivi
cvlilebebi moxda. sruliad gaqra eqsploatatoruli klasebi,
mosaxleobis ZiriTad nawils Seadgens ori megobruli klasi _
muSebisa da kolmeurne glexebisa, sadac muSaTa klasis
xvedriTi wili 6-jer da ufro metad gaizarda. socialuri
Semadgenlobis es cvlilebebi im siRrmiseul gardaqmnebs
asaxavs, rac Cvens qveyanaSi moxda.

128
 ukve 1939 wels Cvens qveyanaSi mimdinare namdvili
kulturuli revoluciis wyalobiT, 9-dan 49 wlamde asakebSi
wera-kiTxvis mcodneTa ricxvma vaJebSi 93,5%-s miaRwia, qalebSi _
81,6%-s. 1959 wlis aRweris monacemebiT 9-dan 49 wlamde asakebSi
wera-kiTxvis ar mcodneebi Seadgendnen 1,5%-s, xolo 1979 wels es
procenti 0,2-mde Semcirda. ZiriTadad eseni arian cudi
janmrTelobis mqone adamianebi. wera-kiTxvis mcodneTa maRali
done yvela mokavSire respublikis mosaxleobisTvisaa
damaxasiaTebeli.
sakmaod gaizarda mosaxleobis zogadi ganaTlebis donec,
gansakuTrebiT ki qalebSi. dasrulda savaldebulo saSualo
ganaTlebaze gadasvla. mosaxleobis ganaTlebisa da kulturis
maRali done da maRali profesiuli momzadeba, sabWoTa
adamianebis warmatebiTi Sromis aucilebeli piroba xdeba. Tu
1939 wels mosaxleobis 1000 kacze gaangariSebiT 10 da meti wlis
asakSi umaRlesi da saSualo (sruli da arasruli) ganaTleba
hqonda 108 kacs, ukve 1984 wels _ Sesabamisad 686. 1939 wels 1000
dasaqmebul mosaxleze umaRlesi da saSualo (sruli da
arasruli) ganaTleba hqonda 123 adamians, ukve 1984 wels es
maCvenebeli 268-mde gaizarda.
gansakuTrebiT gaizarda qalTa ganaTlebis done. Cvens
droSi isini aqtiurad Sromoben saxalxo meurneobis yvela
dargSi, zogierT maTganSi ki wamyvani mdgomareobac ki uWiravT.
1922 wels saxalxo meurneobaSi dasaqmebuli iyo muSa da
mosamsaxure 2,8 mln. qali, e.i. maTi saerTo ricxvis 24%, ukve 1983
wels isini Seadgendnen 59,3 mln.-s, anu muSebisa da
mosamsaxureebis 51%-s.

129
 iseT dargebSi, rogoricaa ganaTleba da kultura,
kavSirgabmuloba, jamrTelobis dacva, fizkultura da
socialuri uzrunvelyofa, saxelmwifo da kooperaciuli
organizaciebis marTvis aparatSi, momsaxurebis sferoSi qalebi
Seadgenen muSaTa da mosamsaxureTa saerTo ricxvis naxevarze
mets. mrewvelobaSic muSebis TiTqmis naxevars qalebi Seadgenen.
Tu 1939 wels dasaqmebul qalTagan umaRlesi ganaTleba
hqondaT mxolod 0,9%-s, 1984 wels ki ukve 11,3%-s, 10 da meti
wlis asakis yvela qalebSi es maCveneblebi Seadgenda
Sesabamisad 0,5 da 7,7%-s.
sazogadoebriv warmoebaSi Sroma, sabWoTa qals saSualebas
aZlevs iqonios sakuTari Semosavlis wyaro, igrZnos Tavi
materialurad damoukideblad da maSasadame, sazogadoebisa da
ojaxis ekonomikurad damoukidebel wevrad, romelsac SeuZlia
miiRos rTuli gadawyvetilebebi. sazogadoebriv warmoebaSi
Sroma sabWoTa qalebis didi umravlesobisaTvis maTi cxovrebis
wesis aucilebeli elementi gaxda. sazogadoebaSi qalis axali
mdgomareoba, misi ganaTlebis maRali done, mniSvnelovan
gavlenas axdens qveynis demografiuli situaciis xasiaTzec.

130
 cxrili 11
ssrk mosaxleobis socialuri Semadgenloba
1924-1984 wlebSi53 %-iT

1924 1939 1984

mTeli moxaxleoba (ojaxis

umuSevar wevrTa CaTvliT) 100,0 100,0 100,0
maT Soris:
muSebi 10,4 33,7 61,5

mosamsaxureebi 4,4 16,5 26,0

kolmeurne glexoba da
kooperirebuli kustarebi 1,3 47,2 12,5

erTpirovnuli glexebi da
arakooperirebuli kustarebi 75,4 2,6 0,0

vaWrebi da kulakebi 8,5 ar aris ar aris

saWiroa SevniSnoT, rom drois Ggarkveul periodSi

demografiuli situacia _ aris Sedegi da erTdroulad
mosaxleobis xangrZlivi ganviTarebis tendenciis nawilis
elementic. mosaxleobis is asakobrivi struqtura, romelic
axla ase mkveTrad moqmedebs Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis
maCveneblebze, Camoyalibda gacilebiT adre. 1985 wels
bavSvTaSobis asakis qalebi _ es arian 1936-1969 wlebSi
dabadebulni, e.i. maTi ricxovnoba ganisazRvreba warsuli
53
Народное хозяйство СССР. 1922-1982 гг., с. 35; Народное хозяйство СССР в 1983 г., с. 7.

131
demografiuli faqtorebiT. SobadobasTan damokidebuleba da
demografiuli qcevis standartebi asakian adamianebs aseve
Tavisi drois movlenebis gavleniT CamouyalibdaT. erTi sityviT,
Tanamedrove demografiuli procesebis Seswavlisas, yovelTvis
unda gvaxsovdes, rom isini warmoadgens etaps mosaxleobis
saerTo ganviTarebis tendenciaSi. am azriT demografias bevri
saerTo aqvs istoriasTan, romelsac zogjer uwodeben
mecnierebas warsulis, magram momavlisaken mimarTuli warsulis
Sesaxeb.
Tu gavaanalizebT ssrk-is mosaxleobis ganviTarebis
tendenciebs, SeiZleba davinaxoT, rom amJamad mTeli qveynis
masStabiT demografiuli situaciis Sesaxeb, SeiZleba sakmaod
pirobiTad visaubroT, radganac arsebobs mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis ramdenime gansxvavebuli tipi. qveynis
mosaxleobis ZiriTadi masisaTvis (TiTqmis mTeli ruseTis
federacia, ukraina, belorusia, baltiispireTi, saqarTvelo, anu
mosaxleobis daaxloebiT 80%) damaxasiaTebelia Sobadobis
dabal kontrolirebad doneze, dabal mokvdaobasa da migraciis
maRal intensivobaze damyarebuli kvlavwarmoeba.
kvlavwarmoebis meore tipi _ romelic damyarebulia
SeuzRudav Sobadobaze, dabal mokvdaobasa da Tavisi
respublikis gareT migraciis dabal intensivobaze _
damaxasiaTebelia Sua aziis soflis mkvidri mosaxleobisaTvis.
kvlavwarmoebis aseTi tipis dros mosaxleoba yovelwliurad
2,0-2,5%-iT matulobs.
dawvrilebiT SevCerdeT mosaxleobis moZraobis TiToeuli
saxeobis dinamikaze. mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis erT-erT
mniSvnelovan komponents warmoadgens mokvdaoba, romelic didi

132
samamulo omis Semdeg mniSvnelovnad Semcirda. ukanasknel
aTwleulSi Cvens qveyanaSi mniSvnelovnad Semcirda avadoba da
gansakuTrebiT infeqciuri daavadebebiT gamowveuli mokvdaoba.
jer kidev 1940 wels saSualod 100 aTas mosaxleze
registrirebuli iyo muclis tifisa da paratifis 62 SemTxveva,
ukve 1983 wels am maCvenebelma Seadgina 7 kaci. analogiuri
maCveneblebi difteriisaTvis iyo 1940 wels 91 da 1983 wels _
0,52%, yivanaxvelisaTvis _ 232 da 10, wiTelisaTvis _ 605 da 86.
Cvens droSi mokvdaobis ZiriTadi mizezebia e.w. endogenuri
xasiaTis, e.i. adamianis organizmis ZiriTad sistemaTa moqmedebis
darRvevasTan dakavSirebuli daavadebebi. amitom mosaxleobis
mTel ricxvSi maRali asakis pirTa xvedriTi wilis zrda iwvevs
gardacvlilTa saerTo raodenobis, da maSasadame, mokvdaobis
zogadi koeficientebis zrdasac. ase, magaliTad, 1939-dan 1970
wlamde periodSi 60 wlisa da meti asakis pirTa xvedriTi wili
6,8-dan 11,8%-mde gaizarda. Tu 1973 wels sisxlis mimoqcevis
daavadebiT gardacvlilebi Seadgendnen gardacvlilTa saerTo
ricxvis 49,6%-s, xolo avTvisebiani simsivniT ki _ 15,1%-s, ukve
1983 wels Sesabamisma maCveneblebma Seadgina 53,5 da 14,3%. 54 aseTi
saxis daavadebebiT mokvdaobis zrda upirveles yovlisa
xandazmuli asakis mosaxleobisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli, radganac
mokvdaobis `piki~ am asakebSi inacvlebs. sicocxlis
xangrZlivobis zrda axlac ZiriTadad bavSvTa da saSualo
asakebSi mokvdaobis Semcirebis gamo xdeba.

54
mravali daavadebisagan mokvdaobis Semcirebam, maT Soris iseTebic, romlebic adre
yovelTvis sasikvdilo iyo, gamoiwvia is, rom mosaxleobis daavadeba Cvens droSi SeiZleba
izrdebodes, xolo mokvdaoba mcirdebodes. sxvagvrad rom vTqvaT sicocxlis
xangrZlivobis maCvenebeli Tanamedrove pirobebSi ar warmoadgens mosaxleobis
janmrTelobis zust maxasiaTebels.

133
 ukve 1926 wlisaTvis im Zireuli cvlilebebis wyalobiT,
romlebic Cvens qveyanaSi moxda, mniSvnelovnad gaizarda
sicocxlis xangrZlivoba da Seadgina (ssrk-is evropuli
nawilisaTvis), vaJebisaTvis 42 da qalebisaTvis 47 weli.
am procesebis dinamikaze ufro zustad SeiZleba vimsjeloT
sicocxlis xangrZlivobis maCveneblis safuZvelze. 1938-1939
wlebSi es maCvenebeli gaizarda vaJebSi 44 da qalebSi 50 wlamde:
1958-dan 1971 wlamde periodSi dabadebisas momavali sicocxlis
saSualo xangrZlivoba gaizarda, vaJebisa 0,14 wliT, xolo
qalebisa _ 1,85 wliT, amasTan sxvaoba qalebisa da vaJebis
sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivobaSi saSualod ssrk-Si
gaizarda 7,3 wlidan 1958-1959 wlebSi, 9,0 wlamde 1968-1971 wlebSi.
magram istoriul aspeqtSi yvela respublikisa da mTlianad
qveynisaTvis, damaxasiaTebelia mokvdaobis Semcirebis tendencia
da tipiuria misi SedarebiTi dabali done. gasagebia, rom am
aspeqtSic mokavSire respublikebs Soris maTi istoriuli
ganviTarebis Taviseburebebis gamo aris garkveuli gansxvaveba,
magram isini araa principuli.
axla dawvrilebiT SevCerdeT Cvens qveyanaSi Sobadobis
procesis tendenciebze. maT analizs didZali literatura
eZRvneba, zogierTi am naSromis dasaxeleba ki wignis bolos
aris mocemuli. am sferoSi generalur tendencias warmoadgens
ojaxebSi Sobadobis intensivobis Semcireba da TandaTanobiT
gadasvla mravalSviliani (xuTi da meti bavSvi) ojaxidan,
saSualoSvilian (sami-oTxi), xolo rig SemTxvevaSi ki
mcireSvilian (erTi-ori bavSvi) ojaxze.
xazs vusvamT gansakuTrebiT araswor mosazrebas imis Sesaxeb,
rom XIX saukuneSi Cvens qveyanaSi masobrivi, tipiuri iyo

134
mravalSviliani ojaxi. amas abrkolebda Zalian maRali CvilTa
mokvdaoba. sabWoTa demografebisa da istorikosebis
gamokvlevebma aCvena, rom mosaxleobis didi nawilis SeuzRudav
Sobadobaze, e.i. mravalSvilian ojaxze orientacis dros,
faqtiurad bevr ojaxSi im momentisaTvis, roca igi Tavis
kvlavwarmoebis cikls amTavrebda, cocxali ori-sami bavSvi
rCeboda. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, mravalSviliani ojaxis idealis
pirobebSi masobrivi iyo saSualoSviliani anda mcireSviliani
ojaxic ki. marTalia im wlebSic iyo mravalSviliani ojaxebi,
ufro sworad mravalSobadobiani ojaxebi, magram bavSvTa
mniSvnelovani nawili sicocxlis pirvelive wlebSi kvdeboda.
mravalSviliani ojaxis realurad arsebobisaTvis
aucilebelia, rom SeuzRudav Sobadobaze orientaciis pirobebSi
dabali iyos bavSvTa mokvdaobac. am pirobaTa SeTanawyoba ssrk-
Si gaxda SesaZlebeli.
magram Sobadobam Cvens qveyanaSi, ufro sworad ki mis
evropul nawilSi, Semcireba XIX saukunis bolodan daiwyo. rig
istoriul da fsiqologiur mizezTa gamo Sobadobis Semcireba
sazogadoebis mier ise mwvaved ar aRiqmeboda, rogorc
dRevandel pirobebSi. amasTan es Semcireba arc Tu ise iSviaTad
monacvleobda struqturuli da epizoduri faqtorebiT
gamowveul, rogorc dabadebulTa ricxvis, ise misi zogadi
koeficientebis aRmavlobasTan (magaliTad, omis Semdgom pirvel
wlebSi ojaxis aRdgenis, mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis zrdisa
da jaridan demobilizaciis Sedegad, dabadebulTa ricxvis
droebiTi zrda).
sabWoTa demografis b.c.urlanisis SefasebiT, Sobadobis
zogadi koeficienti Seadgenda: 1918 wels _ 31,8%0, 1919 wels _ 30,

135
8%0, 1925 w._ 45,0%0, 1930 w._ 41,2%0 da 1940 w._31,2%0-s. Sobadobis
zogadi koeficientis, rogorc demografiuli sazomisaTvis
damaxasiaTebeli yvela naklis miuxedavad, is mainc gviCvenebs am
procesTa ZiriTad kanonzomierebebs _ 20-ian wlebSi
dabadebulTa ricxvis kompensatorul zrdas da omis wina
wlebSi mis Semdgom Semcirebas. ukve 1926-1927 wlebSi
kvlavwarmoebis bruto-koeficienti ssrk-is evropuli nawilis
mosaxleobisaTvis Seadgenda 2,6-s, xolo 1938-1939 wlebSi ukve
mTeli qveynis mosaxleobisaTvis toli iyo 2,1-is.
Sobadobis saerTo ricxvisa da Sobadobis zogadi
koeficientis Semcireba gansakuTrebiT SesamCnevi gaxda 60-iani
wlebis dasawyisidan, roca dabadebulTa ricxvi 1960 wels 5 341
aTasidan, 1969 wels 4 087 aTasamde Semcirda, e.i. 23,5%-iT, xolo
Sobadobis zogadi koeficienti Semcirda 24,9-dan 17,0%0-mde.
sabWoTa demografebis gaangariSebebma aCvena, rom Semcirebis
daaxloebiT 25% dakavSirebuli iyo struqturuli faqtorebis
gavlenasTan, xolo 75% ojaxSi bavSvebis saSualo ricxvis
SemcirebasTan, e.i. ojaxTa demografiuli idealebis
cvlilebasTan.55
ar SeiZleba vTqvaT, rom Cvens qveyanaSi jer kidev omis wina
wlebSi Sobadobis Semcireba mecnierTa da praqtikosTa
`TvalTaxedvis miRma~ rCeboda. magram Sobadobis problemebi
swored 60-iani wlebis Sua xanebidan moeqca demografTa
yuradRebis centrSi.
1940 wels ssrk-Si Sobadobis zogadi koeficienti Seadgenda
31,2%0-s, 1950 w. _ 26,7-s, 1960 w. _ 24,9-s, 1970 w. _ 17,4-s, 1975 w. _
18,1-s, 1980 w. _ 18,3-s, da 1984 w. _ 19,6%0-s. yuradRebas iqcevs is

55
ix.: Рождаемость: известное и неизвестное. М., 1983, с. 18-23.

136
faqti, rom 1970 wlis Semdeg (ix. nax. 3) Sobadobis zogadi
koeficientis sidide ramdenadme gaizarda.

nax. 3
Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis koeficientebis dinamika
ssrk-Si 1952_1983 wlebSi, %0 -iT.

Sobadobis Semcirebaze, gansakuTrebiT rsfsr-Si, ukrainaSi,

belorusiaSi, baltiispireTSi, metyvelebs dabadebulTa Soris
pirvel da meore rigiTobis bavSvTa xvedriTi wilis ganuxreli
zrdac. Tu 1965 wels pirveli da meore rigiTobis bavSvebis
xvedriTi wili dabadebulTa saerTo ricxvSi Seadgenda ukrainis
ssr-Si _ 79,6%-s, rsfsr-Si _ 71,1%-s, ukve 1973 wels Sesabamisad
iyo 85,3 da 83,4%-s. SedarebisaTvis aRvniSnavT, rom uzbekeTis
ssr-Si 1973 wels es maCvenebeli 39,1% iyo. 1981 wels ssrk-is css-
s mier Catarebuli muSebis, mosamsaxureebisa da kolmeurneTa
ojaxebis specialuri gamokvlevebis monacemebiT, im ojaxTa
saerTo ricxvidan, romlebsac 16 wlamde asakis bavSvebi hyavdaT,

137
erTbavSviani da orbavSviani ojaxebi Seadgendnen rsfsr-s
muSaTa da mosamsaxureTa ojaxebs Soris 96,4%-s, xolo
kolmeurneTa ojaxebSi _ 81,9%-s. amave gamokvlevis monacemebiT
uzbekeTis ssr-Si es maCveneblebi Sesabamisad iyo 69,1 da 35,0%.56
ukanaskneli aTwleulis Sobadobis procesis dinamika
gavaanalizoT ufro detaluri maCveneblebis daxmarebiT,
daviwyoT mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis bruto-koeficientis
dinamikiT (ix. cxr. 12).
1938-1939 wlebSi ssrk-isaTvis mTlianad es maCvenebeli
Seadgenda 2,16-s. SegaxsenebT, rom mokvdaobis Tanamedrove donis
pirobebSi martivi kvlavwarmoebis reJimis, e.i. TaobaTa 1:1
TanafardobiT cvlas, Seesabameba bruto-koeficienti sididiT
1,05 _ 1,10.
Tu gavaanalizebT monacemebs, maSin SeiZleba aRvniSnoT am
maCveneblis dinamikis ramdenime Tavisebureba, romelic
garkveulwilad Sobadobis procesTa dinamikasac asaxavs. Cven
vambobT `garkveulwilad~ imisaTvis, rom kidev erTxel xazi
gavusvaT im mdgomareobas, rom mxolod demografiul sazomTa
kompleqss SeuZlia mogvces am procesis dinamikis sakmaod zusti
suraTi.
amJamad ssrk mosaxleobis umetes nawils (rsfsr, ukraina,
belorusia, baltiispireTis respublikebi), romlebic 1984 wlis
dasawyisisaTvis qveynis mTeli mosaxleobis 76,8%-s Seadgenda,
bruto-koeficienti naklebi an TiTqmis erTis tolia, es ki
niSnavs, rom neto-koeficientic erTze naklebia. sxvagvarad, rom
vTqvaT, maCvenebelTa dinamika mosaxleobis Sekvecili
kvlavwarmoebis tendenciaze metyvelebs. magram rogorc ukve iyo

56
Вестник статистики, 1983, №2, с. 58-59.

138
 cxrili 12
ssrk-is mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis bruto-koeficientebis
dinamika 1958_1982 wlebSi57
wlebi

1958-1959 1969-1970 1974-1975 1982-1983

ssrk-Si sul 1,38 1,17 1,18 1,18

maT Soris:
qalaqad 1,08 0,95 0,95 0,95
soflad 1,70 1,56 1,71 1,67
rsfsr 1,27 0,97 0,98 0,99
ukrainis ssr 1,14 1,00 1,00 0,99
belorusiis ssr 1,36 1,13 1,08 1,01
uzbekeTis ssr 2,45 2,76 2,79 2,96
yazaxeTis ssr 2,16 1,62 1,62 1,42
saqarTvelos ssr 1,25 1,28 1,24 1,09
azerbaijanis ssr 2,43 2,27 1,93 1,51
litvis ssr 1,27 1,15 1,08 1,00
moldaveTis ssr 1,73 1,26 1,26 1,25
latviis ssr 1,08 0,94 0,97 0,98
yirgizeTis ssr 2,09 2,37 2,33 1,98
tajikeTis ssr 1,92 2,89 3,07 2,65
somxeTis ssr 2,29 1,57 1,38 1,14
TurqmeneTis ssr 2,48 2,90 2,83 2,31
estoneTis ssr 0,94 1,05 1,03 1,02

naTqvami, mxolod am maCveneblis dinamikis safuZvelze ar

SeiZleba gavakeToT saboloo da Seuqcevadi daskvna
`demografiuli katastrofis~ Sesaxeb. aucilebelia gvaxsovdes

57
Вестник статистики, 1984, №11, с. 52; 1976, №11, с. 86; Население СССР. 1973, с. 135-138.

139
imis Sesaxebac, rom mosaxleobis ricxovnoba SeiZleba
izrdebodes mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqturis gavleniT, e.i.
saqme exeba e.w. demografiuli zrdis potencials. TviT neto-
koeficientic, Tavisi arsidan gamomdinare, ufro Sekvecili
kvlavwarmoebisadmi tendencias gviCvenebs, vidre mis realur
arsebobas. miuxedavad amisa, es aris Taviseburi sagangaSo
signali demografiul sistemaSi negatiuri tendenciebis
SesaZleblobis Sesaxeb, amitom gvmarTebs ufro detalurad
SeviswavloT arsebul procesTa xasiaTi.
axla davubrundeT cxrili 12-is monacemTa analizs. SeimCneva
am maCveneblis Semcirebis mtkice tendencia, swored tendencia,
iseTi respublikebis mosaxleobaSi, rogoricaa yazaxeTi, somxeTi
da moldaveTi. aris Tavisebureba Sua aziis respublikebis
mocemul maCvenebelTa dinamikaSic. aq SenarCunebulia Sobadobis
Zalian maRali done _ bruto koeficienti yvelgan orze metia,
rac daaxloebiT Sobadobis im tips Seesabameba, roca igi
Segnebulad ar izRudeba.
gavakeToT patara dazusteba. aseTi maRali Sobadoba,
mravalSilian ojaxze orientacia, upirveles yovlisa im
respublikebis soflis mosaxleobisaTvis aris damaxasiaTebeli,
sadac ZiriTadad mkvidri erovnebis warmomadgenlebi cxovroben.
ase magaliTad, jer kidev 1969-1970 wlebSi uzbekeTis
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis bruto-koeficienti Seadgenda
soflad 3,6-s, qalaqad _ 1,8-s, xolo 1979-1980 wlebSi _
Sesabamisad 3,2-s da 1,5-s.
1970 wels Sua aziis respublikebSi mkvidri mosaxleobis
(uzbekebi, tajikebi, Turqmenebi, yirgizebi) ricxovnoba Seadgenda
mTeli mosaxleobis 70,4%-s, 1979 wels _ 73,9%-s, xolo rusi da

140
ukraineli mosaxleobix xvedriTi wili respublikebSi Semcirda
16,6%-dan 1970 wels, 13,8%-mde 1979 wels.58
cnobilia, rom Sua aziis qalaqebSi mcxovreb aramkvidr
(gansakuTrebiT rus da ukrainel) mosaxleobas Sobadobis
iseTive done aqvs, romelic naklebad gansxvavdeba rsfsr-sa da
ukrainis mosaxleobis Sesabamisi maCveneblebisagan. qalaqebSi,
gansakuTrebiT iseT msxvil qalaqebSi, rogoricaa taSkenti,
frunze, duSanbe, aSxabadi, _ mcxovrebi mkvidri mosaxleoba ki
iwyebs aramkvidri mosaxleobis reproduqciuli ganwyobis
gadmoRebas da TandaTan gadadis saSualoSvilian da
mcireSviliani ojaxis idealzec ki. ase magaliTad, Tu
uzbekeTis ssr-Si 1981 wels, Sobadobis zogadi koeficienti
Seadgenda 34,9%0-s, taSkentSi 1982 wels iyo _ 19,6%0, Sesabamisi
maCveneblebi yirgizeTis ssr-sa da frunzesaTvis Seadgenda 30,8
da 17,6%0-s.
cxrili 12-is monacemebidan SeiZleba gavakeToT daskvna imis
Sesaxeb, rom Sua aziis respublikebSi bruto-koeficientis
sidide gaizarda 1958-1959 _ 1969-1970 wlebSi, xolo daaxloebiT
70-iani wlebis meore naxevridan daiwyo Semcireba. am
maCvenebelTa zrda ramdenime mizeziT, maT Soris statistikuri
aRricxvis sisruliT, iyo gamowveuli.
Semdgom, Tuki vnaxavT Sobadobis Sesabamisi asakobrivi
koeficientis dinamikas, davinaxavT, rom 60-iani wlebidan
SeimCneva maRali asakis qalTa Sobadobis maCveneblebis zrda.
ase magaliTad, 1958-1959 wlebSi uzbekeTis ssr-Si 40-44 wlis
asakis qalebSi Sobadobis koeficienti Seadgenda 96,8%0-s, xolo

58
ix.: Мулляджанов И.Р. Демографическое развитие Узбекской ССР. Ташкент, 1983. с. 239; Итоги Всесоюзной
переписи населения 1970 года. Т. IV. М., 1973, с. 215-219; Народное хозяйство СССР. 1922-1982. М., 1973, с.
137-138.

141
1964-1965 wlebSi _ 99,2%0-s, analogiuri maCveneblebi TurqmeneTis
ssr-Si iyo _ 93,1 da 109,9%0. 59 am fenomenis erT-erTi mizezia is,
rom winaT daavadebis maRali donis gamo efeqturi da
xelmisawvdomi samedicino, maT Soris mSobiarobisas daxmarebis
ararsebobis dros, Segnebulad SeuzRudavi Sobadobis
pirobebSic ki bevr qals 35-40 wlis asakSi ukve aRar SeeZlo
bavSvis gaCena.
Tanamedrove da sayovelTaod xelmisawvdomi samedicino
daxmarebis ganviTarebam, kvalificiurma samSobiaro daxmarebam,
abortebis praqtikulad ararsebobis pirobebSi SesaZlebeli
gaxada, rom Sua aziis respublikebSi qalebs maRal asaakebSic
didi xnis manZilze SeenarCunebinaT bavSvTa yolis
SesaZlebloba, Seamcira bavSvTaSobis asakSi saSualo da maRal
asakobriv jgufebSi qalTa Soris qvrivebis xvedriTi wilic.
qveyanaSi arsebul Sobadobis diferenciaciaze da mis
tendenciebze SeiZleba vimsjeloT mokavSire respublikebis
mixedviT qorwinebaSi myof sxvadasxva asakis qalebis mier
gaCenili (mosalodneli) bavSvebis saSualo ricxvis
monacemebiTac. es monacemebi miRebul iqna ssrk-is css-s mier
1978 wels Catarebuli specialuri SerCeviTi gamokvleviT
(cxrili 13).
rogorc ukve aRiniSna, maRali Sobadobis raionebisaTvis
damaxasiaTebelia Sobadobis doneTa gansxvaveba qalaqebisa da
soflebis mixedviT. ase magaliTad, 1944-1948 wlebSi dabadebul
uzbekeTis ssr-is qalaqel qalebSi, romlebic gamokvlevis
momentSi 30-dan 34 wlamde asakSi iyvnen, gaCenili (mosalodneli)
bavSvis ricxvi saSualod iyo 3,5 xolo analogiuri maCvenebeli

59
ix.: Население СССР. 1973, с. 137-138.

142
sofleli qalebisaTvis ki _ 6,31, e.i. TiTqmis 2-jer meti.
saSualo mosalodneli (gaCenili) bavSvebis ricxvi uzbekeTis 35-
39 wlis soflel qalebSi toli iyo 6,71-is, xolo 20-24 wlis
asakebisaTvis ki _ 4,77, e.i. mniSvnelovnad naklebi.
cxrili 13
qorwinebaSi myof qalTa mier gaCenili (mosalodneli)
bavSvebis saSualo ricxvi zogierTi respublikis mixedviT60

asaki qalebis respublikebi

gamokvlevis dabadebis rsfsr moldaveTi estoneTi uzbekeTi azerb
momentisaTvis weli aijan
i

20-24 1954-1958 1,86 2,11 1,96 4,31 3,30

25-29 1949-1953 1,95 2,31 2,25 4,51 3,70
30-34 1944-1948 2,00 2,44 2,26 5,09 4,30
35-39 1939-1943 2,12 2,51 2,17 5,65 4,90
40-44 1934-1938 2,18 2,64 2,17 5,30 4,80
45-49 1929-1933 2,21 2,76 2,00 4,75 4,39
50-54 1924-1928 2,27 2,88 1,93 3,96 4,01

Sobadobis problemasTan mWidrod aris dakavSirebuli da

masze gavlenas axdens qorwinebis tendenciebi, agreTve maTi
sapirispiro movlenebic _ qorwinebis Sewyveta. saWiroa
gansakuTrebiT gamovyoT cneba `qorwinebis Sewyveta.~ saqme is
aris, rom Cveulebriv laparakoben ganqorwinebis Sedegad ojaxis
dangrevaze, magram qorwineba SeiZleba Sewydes erT-erTi
meuRlis sikvdilis gamoc _ daqvrivebiT. amrigad, cneba

60
Воспроизводство населения СССР. с. 231, 239.

143
`qorwinebis Sewyveta~ moicavs or movlenas _ ganqorwinebasa da
daqvrivebas.
qorwinebisa da qorwinebis Sewyvetis procesTa Seswavlas
mravali sxvadasxva aspeqti gaaCnia. praqtikulad es aris
socialur-ekonomikuri, zneobrivi, fsiqologiuri problemebis
kompleqsi, romlebsac Seiswavlian sxvadasxva mecnierebebi _
sociologia, demografia, pedagogika, fsiqologia da sxv. Cven
problemebis mxolod im aspeqtebze SevCerdebiT, romlebic
yvelaze mWidrod aris dakavSirebuli demografiasTan _
qorwinebisa da qorwinebis Sewyvetis gavlena Sobadobis
tendenciebze.
Sobadobis intensivobaze qorwinebaSi Sesvlis asakis gavlena
sakmaod rTulia da araerTgvarovania reproduqciuli qcevis
sxvadasxva tipebisaTvis. ase magaliTad, SeuzRudavi Sobadobis
pirobebSi, rac ufro adre Seva qali qorwinebaSi
(fiziologiuri sazRvrebis gaTvaliswinebiT), Teoriulad miT
meti bavSvis gaCena SeuZlia mas. frangi demografebis
gaangariSebiT Tu qali 15 wlis asakSi daqorwinda, ojaxuri
kavSirebis Sewyvetisa da Sobadobis SezRudvis gareSe, kargi
jamrTelobis pirobebSi da qorwinebaSi 50 wlamde iyo, maSin mas
SeuZlia gaaCinos saSualod 12 bavSvi, sxva mecnierTa azriT ki _
10 bavSvi. arsebiTad es aris Sobadobis jamuri koeficientis
maqsimaluri mniSvneloba. 61 gasagebia, rom es aris Sobadobis
hipoTezuri maqsimumi saSualod qalTa sakmaod didi
erTobliobisaTvis, radganac realur cxovrebaSi, Tundac
Segnebulad SeuzRudavi Sobadobis pirobebSi, yvelaferi
idealuri sqemis mixedviT ar mimdinareobs. aris ganqorwinebebi,
61
es niSnavs, rom bruto-koeficientis maqsimaluri mniSvneloba pirvel SemTxvevaSi
SeiZleba ganisazRvros rogorc 5,9, xolo meoreSi ki, rogorc - 4,9.

144
da bavSvTaSobis asakis bolomde erT-erTi meuRlis sikvdilic,
ramdenime mSobiarobis Semdeg qalis janmrTelobis
mdgomareobas, SeiZleba misTvis bavSvis yolis saSualeba aRar
mieca. yovelive es iwvevda, rom bavSvTaSobis funqcia 50 welze
gacilebiT ufro adre ikargeboda. amitom realur cxovrebaSi
Teoriuli maqsimumi TiTqmis miuRwevelia.
moviyvanoT zogierTi monacemi Sobadobis jamuri
koeficientis maqsimaluri faqtiuri sididis Sesaxeb, romlebic
registrirebuli iyo sxvadasxva wlebSi, roca Sobadoba ar
izRudeboda. ase magaliTad, 1896-1897 wlebSi ukrainaSi es sidide
7,5-s Seadgenda, bulgareTSi (1901-1905 w.w.) – 6,6-s, gvineaSi (1954-
1955 w.w.) _ 7,0-s, egvipteSi (1960 w.) _ 6,1-s, kuveitSi (1965 w) – 6,9-s,
iaponiaSi 1925 wels – 5,3-s. yvela es maCvenebeli mniSvnelovnad
dabalia hipoTezur maqsimumze, Tundac rom igi 10-is tolad
miviCnioT.
magram davubrundeT qorwinebis sakiTxs. Zalian axalgazrda
asakSi qalis daqorwinebam _ `Zalian naadrevi qorwinebebi~ _
roca organizmi jer kidev srulad ar aris mzad
bavSvTaSobisaTvis, SeiZleba Zalian mZime Sedegebi gamoiwvios.
esaa mSobiarobisas axalgazrda dedis sicocxlis safrTxe,
unayofobis warmoSobis Zalian xSiri SemTxvevebi, agreTve
bavSvTa mokvdaobis gazrdili riski. miuxedavad amisa, warsulSi
aseTi qorwinebebi, gansakuTrebiT Sua aziaSi, iSviaToba ar iyo.
amitom sabWoTa xelisuflebis damyarebis Semdeg `Zalian
naadrevi~ qorwinebis akrZalva (jer sakanonmdeblo wesiT), xolo
mogvianebiT ki maTi faqtiuri mospoba, ara marto bavSvTa da
dedaTa mokvdaobis Semcirebis faqtori gaxda, aramed xeli
Seuwyo qalebSi xangrZlivi drois ganmavlobaSi bavSvTaSobis

145
funqciis SenarCunebas, da maSasadame, mTlianobaSi Sobadobis
zrdasac.
cota sxvagvaradaa saqme Sobadobis Segnebuli SezRudvis
masiurad gavrcelebis pirobebSi ara marto ojaxebSi bavSvTa
ricxvis, aramed maTi gaCenis vadebis mixedviTac, regulirebis
dros. Tu ojaxi erTi an ori Svilis yolas varaudobs, maSin
qorwinebaSi Sesvlis asaks iseTi didi mniSvneloba ara aqvs,
rogorc SeuzRudavi Sobadobis dros. 40 wlis asakamde, romlis
zeviTac SezRuduli Sobadobis raionebSi Sobadoba sakmaod
iSviaTia, 62 ori an sami bavSvis gaCenis moswrebac SeiZleba da
asakisa da drois SerCevac. ra Tqma unda, am SemTxvevaSic
mniSvneloba aqvs qorwinebaSi Sesvlis asaks. erTia, roca igi 21-
23 welia, da meore, roca 30-s uaxlovdeba. aq gavlenas iwyebs
ara marto fiziologiuri momenti, aramed fsiqologiuri da
mravali sxva faqtoric. magram aq ar aris iseTi mWidro kavSiri
dedis asaksa da Sobadobis sixSires Soris, rogoric
SeuzRudavi Sobadobis drosaa, aq es damokidebulebebi ufro
rTuli da mravalferovani xdeba.
axla dawvrilebiT SevCerdeT qorwinebisa da qorwinebis
Sewyvetis Tanamedrove tendenciebze. saubari daviwyoT
tradiciulad qorwinebis zogadi koeficientebis analiziT, e.i.
qorwinebaTa saSualo wliuri ricxvi mosaxleobis 1000 sulze
(ix. cxrili 14).
cxrilidan Cans, rom daaxloebiT 70-iani wlebis Sua
xanebidan es maCveneblebi ramdenadme gaizarda.
SevecadoT dawvrilebiT gaverkveT am procesebSi.
bavSvTaSobis asakSi sqesobrivi disproporciis gamoTanabrebis
62
ase magaliTad, 1973 wels rsfsr-Si 40 wlamde asakis qalTa wilad modioda gaCenaTa
saerTo ricxvis _ 97,8%, estoneTSi _ 99,1%.

146
 cxrili 14
qorwinebis koeficientebis dinamika ssrk-Si
1940-1982 wlebSi63 (%0)
1940 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1982 1983
qorwinebis 6,3 12,1 8,7 9,7 10,7 10,3 10,3 10,4
koeficientis sidide

Semdeg, rac omis danakargebis Sedegs warmoadgenda, mTlianad

qveyanaSi daqorwinebis pirobebi ufro sasikeTo xdeba, rasac
xels uwyobs Cveni xalxis materialuri mdgomareobis ganuxreli
zrda, daqorwinebisa da registraciisaTvis yovelgvari eTnikuri
da religiuri dabrkolebebis ar arseboba. es dasturdeba
eTnikurad Sereuli ojaxebis xvedriTi wilis zrdiTac. Tu 1959
wels isini Seadgendnen mTlianad ojaxebis saerTo ricxvis
10,2%-s, ukve 1970 wels _ 13,5-s, 1979 wels _ 14,9%-s, xolo ssrk-is
qalaqis mosaxleobaSi 1979 wels es wili ukve 18,1%-is toli iyo.
yvela es faqtori xels uwyobs qorwinebaSi myof pirTa
xvedriTi wilis zrdas, maT Soris axalgazrda asakebSic, rac
ojaxis reproduqciuli funqciis realizaciisaTvis
gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania. ase magaliTad, 20-dan 29 wlamde
asakebSi 1959 wlis monacemebiT qorwinebaSi iyo vaJebis 27,4% da
qalebis 50,1%, xolo 1979 wlis aRweriT ki _ ukve vaJebis 38,4%
da qalebis 60,2%.
Semcirda, gansakuTrebiT ki pirvel qorwinebaSi Sesvlis
asaki. 1973 wels 20 wlamde pirvel qorwinebaSi Sevida gaTxovil
qalTa saerTo ricxvis 30,9%, xolo 20-24 wlamde – 51,1%. 1983
wels Sesabamisi maCveneblebi Seadgenda 30,3 da 52,4%-s. ssrk-is
css-s 1978 wlis SerCeviTi gamokvlevis monacemebiT 23 wlamde
63
Население СССР. 1983. М., 1983, с. 84; Народное хозяйство СССР в 1983 г., с.30.

147
qorwinebaSi iyo 1919-1925 wlebSi dabadebuli qalebis 35,4%, 1946-
1948 wlebSi dabadebulebis _ ukve 66,1%, xolo 1952-1954 wlebSi
dabadebuli kohortis _ 68,5%.
ra Tqma unda, qveynis regionebis mixedviT am process gaaCnia
Taviseburebani, kerZod qorwinebaSi Sesvlis saSualo asakis
Semcireba gansakuTrebiT damaxasiaTebelia ssrk-is evropuli
nawilisaTvis. Sua aziasa da amierkavkasiaSi Zalian naadrevi
qorwinebis praqtikulad gaqrobam gamoiwvia pirvel qorwinebaSi
Sesvlis saSualo asakis ramdenadme gazrda.
SevCerdeT qorwinebis Sewyvetis, maT Soris ganqorwinebis
procesis Tanamedrove tendenciebze. ganqorwineba, ufro sworad
faqtiurad daSlili qorwinebis iuridiuli gaformeba (da maTi
mmaCis biuroSi registraciis Semdeg demografTaATvalTaxedvis
areSi swored es movlena xvdeba), ara marto meuRleebisaTvis da
gansakuTrebiT ki maTi bavSvebisaTvis warmoadgens tragedias,
aramed aisaxeba demografiul procesebzec.
ojaxis daSla, TviT misi realuri safrTxec ki, aisaxeba
meuRleTa survilSi iyolion bavSvebi, da maSasadame, Sobadobis
saerTo donezec, miT ufro, rom ganmeorebiTi qorwinebebi
sruliad ver anazRaurebs daSlili ojaxebis ricxvs. ase
magaliTad, latviis ssr-Si, sadac mokavSire respublikebs Soris
ganqorwinebis done erT-erTi yvelaze maRalia, 1978-1979 wlebSi
1000 ganqorwinebulze saSualod modioda (qvrivebi ganmeorebiTi
qorwinebis gauTvaliswineblad) vaJebis 426 da qalebis 394
ganmeorebiTi qorwineba. qalebis SedarebiT dabali
`ganmeorebiTi~ qorwineba dakavSirebulia imasTan, rom bavSvebi
pirveli qorwinebis Semdeg umetes SemTxvevaSi rCeba dedasTan,
rac aZnelebs misTvis axali ojaxis Seqmnas. imave gamokvlevis

148
monacemebiT, latviis ssr-Si gaSorebuli bavSviani qalebidan,
romlebsac survili aqvT, rom ganmeorebiT Sevidnen qorwinebaSi,
ara umetes 25% SeZlebs ganaxorcielos es survili. ganmeorebiT
qorwinebaSi, gansakuTrebiT Tuki wina colqmruli kavSiridan
hyavT bavSvebi, Sobadoba saSualod yovelTvis naklebia,
radganac meuRleebs warsulis gamocdilebis gaTvaliswinebiT
xSirad aRar surT axali bavSvebis yola.
mTlianad qveyanaSi qvrivTa da gaSorebulTa saerTo
ricxvidan axal qorwinebaSi Sedis yoveli mesame vaJi da yoveli
mexuTe qali.
rogoria qorwinebis daSlis realuri done, rogorc erT-
erTi meuRlis sikvdilis an ganqorwinebis Sedegi?
ganvixiloT ganqorwinebis tendenciebi. ukve aRiniSna, rom
marto ganqorwinebaTa ricxvis Sedareba bevrs arafers iZleva,
aucilebelia ganqorwinebis gaformebis proceduris cvlilebis
problemebisa da sxva mdgomareobasTan am movlenis kavSiris
gaTvaliswineba. arasworia, rogorc es zogjer xdeba, ama Tu im
wels qorwinebisa da ganqorwinebis ricxvebis Sedareba da
daskvnebis amis safuZvelze gamotana. ase magaliTad, Tu 1983
wels Cvens qveyanaSi registrirebuli iyo 2 835 aTasi qorwineba
da 945 aTasi ganqorwineba zogjer amboben, rom yoveli mesame
qorwineba iSleba. magram 1983 wels moxda 2,8 mln. qorwineba,
xolo sanam ganqorwineba gaformdeboda, es 945 aTasi daSlili
qorwineba, gansxvavebuli zogjer ki sakmaod didi xnis
ganmavlobaSi arsebobda. sabWoTa demografebis SefasebiT
ganqorwinebaTa wliuri ricxvis mxolod 4%-mde modis im
ojaxebze, romlebic mimdinare wels Seiqmna.

149
 Tvali gavadevnoT ganqorwinebis procesis dinamikas. Tu 1960
wels ssrk-Si registrirebuli iyo 270,2 aTasi ganqorwineba, anu,
sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, ganqorwinebis koeficientma Seadgina
1,3%0, maSin 1965 wels, e.i. ganqorwinebis gaformebis wesebis
mniSvnelovan cvlilebamde, maTi ricxvi 360,4 aTasamde (1,6%0)
gaizarda. magram 1966 wels, ganqorwinebis proceduris
gamartivebis Semdeg, maTi ricxvi 646,1 aTasamde (2,8%0) gaizarda,
1975 wels _ 860,7 aTasamde (3,4%0), xolo 1983 wels maT ukve 945
aTasi, anu 3,5%0 Seadgenes. yuradReba mivaqcioT im mniSvnelovan
garemoebas, rom 1966 welTan SedarebiT ganqorwinebaTa saerTo
ricxvi ramdenadme Semcirda (1979 wels 615,2 aTasamde), xolo
Semdgom daiwyo zrda, praqtikulad 1980 wlamde, roca maTma
ricxvma 929,6 aTass miaRwia, e.i. 1969-dan 1980 wlamde igi 50,6%-iT
gaizarda. es imaze metyvelebs, rom ganqorwinebaTa ricxvis zrda
dakavSirebulia ara marto ganqorwinebis proceduris
cvlilebasTan, aramed am movlenas sxva ufro siRrmiseuli
mizezebic aqvs.
ganqorwinebis zogadi koeficientebi, rogorc am saxis sxva
maCveneblebi arasrulad axasiaTebs am procesebs. magram ufro
detaluri maCveneblebi adasturebs ganqorwinebis zrdas. ase
magaliTad, ganqorwinebis jamuri koeficienti 1964 wels
Seadgenda 176%0-s, 1966 wels _ 349-s, 1975 wels _ 396-s da 1977
wels _ 438%0-s.64analogiuri maCveneblebi 16-dan 49 wlamde asakis
vaJebisaTvis 1964 wels iyo _ 193%0, 1966 wels _ 357, 1975 wels _
414 da 1977 wels _ 463%0. ganqorwinebis zrdaze metyvelebs maTi
maCveneblebi saqorwino koportebSi. 1959 wels gaformebuli

64
maT angariSoben iseve rogorc Sobadobis jamobriv koeficients. Cvens SemTxvevaSi igi
gviCvenebs registrirebuli ganqorwinebebis ricxvs saSualod 16-dan 49 wlamde asakis 1000
qalze.

150
saSualod 1000 qorwinebidan 10 wlis Semdeg ganqorwinebis
Sedegad daiSala 112 qorwineba, 1964 wlis saqorwino
koportisaTvis es maCvenebeli Seadgenda 171-s, xolo 1969 wels
daqorwinebulebSi ki _ 207-s.
ukve aRiniSna, rom ganqorwinebaTa intensivoba
gansxvavebulia regionebis mixedviT. axlo warsulSi, 20-30 wlis
win, soflad qalaqTan SedarebiT, ganqorwinebaTa doneebSi
arsebuli gansxvaveba, axla icvleba. ganqorwinebaTa zrdis
tempebi soflad, gansakuTrebiT axalgazrdebSi, arsebiTad ufro
maRalia, vidre qalaqad, sadac es done isedac maRalia. am azriT
sofeli qalaqs eweva.
TandaTanobiT mcirdeba calkeul mokavSire respublikebSi
mosaxleobis ganqorwinebaTa doneebSi arsebuli gansxvavebani.
1969-1970 wlebSi 1000 colqmrul wyvilze ganqorwinebaTa
umaRlesi saSualo wliuri ricxvi iyo latviis ssr-Si _ 18,6%0,
xolo yvelaze mcire _ somxeTis ssr-Si _ 4,7%0. 1978-1979 wlebSi
maCveneblis umaRlesi sidide kvlav latviaSi iyo
registrirebuli _ 22,1%0, xolo yvelaze mcire somxeTSi _ 5,0%0.
1969_1979-dan 1978-1979 wlamde periodSi ganqorwinebaTa
maCveneblebi marTalia sxvadasxva zomiT, magram mainc qveynis
yvela mokavSire respublikaSi gaizarda.
ojaxis daSlis meore mizezia _ erT-erTi meuRlis sikvdili,
daqvriveba. demograf a.g.volkovis gaangariSebiT 1970-1979 wlebSi
daaxloebiT 8 mln. adamiani daqvrivda. es niSnavs, rom am wlebSi
saSualod 1000 qorwinebidan 16 erT-erTi meuRlis sikvdilis
gamo daiSala. 1959-1970 wlebSi daqvrivebis intensivobis
maCvenebeli yovel 1000 qorwinebaze saSualod 18-is toli iyo.

151
 daqvrivebis mizeziT qorwinebis daSlis done varirebs
qveynis regionebis mixedviTac, magram am sidideTa Sefaseba
Znelia, radganac colqmruli wyvilebis ricxvi ara marto
daojaxebisa da qorwinebaTa daSlis procesebiT icvleba, aramed
qveynis ama Tu im nawilSi ojaxebis mosvlisa da wasvlis
Sedegadac. m.s.tolcis SefasebiT 1959-1969 wlebSi rsfsr-Si
saSualod 1000 colqmrul wyvilze 19 daSlili colqmruli
kavSiri (19%0) modioda, ukrainaSi _ 15, maCveneblis maqsimaluri
mniSvneloba iyo tajikeTis ssr-Si _ 31, uzbekeTis ssr-Si _ 27%0,
minimaluri sidide aRiniSna moldaveTSi _ 10%0, ramdenadme
maRali latviasa da estoneTSi _ 12%0.
amrigad, qveyanaSi qorwinebis Sewyvetis tendenciebis
analizisas aucilebelia gaviTvaliswinoT am movlenis mTeli
mravalferovneba, gansakuTrebiT is siRrmiseuli socialur-
ekonomikuri mizezebi, romlebmac Tanamedrove pirobebSi
ganapirobes ojaxis funqciaTa cvlilebebi, da maSasadame,
qorwinebaSi Sesvlisa da misi Sewyvetis Tanamedrove
tendenciebic.
mosaxleobis moZraobis mniSvnelovan formas, romelic misi
Semadgenlobisa da ricxovnobis cvlilebas iwvevs, warmoadgens
migracia. migraciuli nakadebi ukve omis wina wlebSi iyo Zalin
didi. qveynis industrializacia, cimbirisa da Soreuli
aRmosavleTis raionebis aTviseba mxolod mosaxleobis maRali
moZraobis, soflidan qalaqSi da qveynis axal samrewvelo
raionebSi aqtiuri migraciis Sedegad gaxda SesaZlebeli. marto
1925-1930 wlebSi gegmiuri soflis meurneobrivi gadasaxlebis

152
Sedegad (axla amas organizebul Segrovebas vuwodebT) cimbirSi
910 aTasi glexi Cavida.65
mosaxleobis didi odebobiT gadaadgilebebi SeimCneoda
omisa da omis Semdgom pirvel wlebSi. ase magaliTad, 1941-1942
wlebSi im raionebidan, romlebsac okupacia emuqreboda,
evakuirebul iqna 25 mln. adamiani. 1968-1969 wlebSi mudmivi
sacxovrebeli adgili Seicvala 13,9 mln.-ma adamianma, amasTan,
migrantTa 72% Sromisunarian asakSi iyo. ukanasknel wlebSi
mosaxleobis gadanacvlebaTa ZiriTadi mimarTuleba iyo
migracia soflidan qalaqad, qveynis centraluri raionebidan
cimbirsa da Soreuul aRmosavleTSi da piriqiT, agreTve
Crdilo kavkasiasa da qveynis samxreTis zogierT raionSi. ase
magaliTad, 1970-dan 1984 wlamde periodSi soflidan qalaqad
migraciis Sedegad, soflis mosaxleobis ricxvi 105,7-dan 96,4
mln. kacamde anu 8,9%-iT Semcirda, xolo soflis mosaxleobis
xvedriTi wili qveynis mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobaSi
Semcirda 44-dan 35%-mde.
sakmaod didia mosaxleobis axal sacxovrebel adgilze
gadanacvlebaTa saerTo odenoba. 1979 wlis aRweriT mudmiv
sacxovrebel adgilze dabadebidan cxovrobda qalaqis
mosaxleobis 43,5% da soflis mosaxleobis 68,2%. am maCveneblis
`gabneva~ mokavSire respublikebis mixedviT, da maSasadame,
migraciul procesTa intensivobac, sakmaod maRalia. ase
magaliTad, dabadebidan mudmivad mcxovrebi mosaxleobis
yvelaze dabali xvedriTi wili dafiqsirebuli iyo estoneTSi _
35,5% qalaqad da 40,5% sofel adgilebSi. mudmiv sacxovrebel
adgils yvelaze iSviaTad icvlida Sua aziisa da amierkavkasiis
65
ix.: Платонов Н.И. Переселенческая политика Советского государства и ее осуществление в СССР. Томск,
1976, с. 82.

153
soflis mosaxleoba _ Sesabamisi maCveneblebi Seadgenda
uzbekeTis ssr-Si 88,2%-s da azerbaijanSi _ 90,9%-s. erTi sityviT,
saerTod ssrk-is mosaxleobis maRali moZraobis pirobebSi,
regionuli diferenciacia aqac arsebobs.
mosaxleobis ganviTarebaze migraciis gavlena xSirad
araerTgvarovania. mosaxleobis moZraobis zrda sazogadoebis
ganviTarebis mniSvnelovan faqtors warmoadgens, xels uwyobs
adamianTa kulturuli da zogadsaganmanaTleblo donis
amaRlebas. migraciis gareSe SeuZlebeli iqneboda qveynis
ekonomikis ganviTarebac, cimbirisa da Soreuli aRmosavleTis
bunebrivi resursebis aTviseba da sxv. soflis meurneobis
meqanizaciis zrda da misi industriul safuZvelze gadayvana
saSualebas iZleva, rom soflidan kadrebis nawili ekonomikis
sxva dargebis saWiroebisaTvis gamovanTavisufloT.
magram soflidan metismeti migracia iwvevs sqesobriv-
asakobriv disproporciebs, axalgazrdebis naklebobas, rac
arTulebs soflis meurneobis ganviTarebas, axali teqnikis
swraf aTvisebas, rac didi odenobiT miewodeba sofels,
gansakuTrebiT ukanasknel wlebSi rsfsr-s araSavmiwaniadagian
zonaSi. bevri axalgazrdis wasvla iwvevs Sobadobis Semcirebasa
da mosaxleobis daberebas. meore mxriv, axalgazrdebis didi
masis soflidan msxvil qalaqebSi Casvla damatebiT datvirTvas
uqmnis qalaqis sayofacxovrebo samsaxurebs, arTulebs sabinao
problemis gadawyvetas.
mosaxleobis qveynis axal raionebSi gadaadgileba xSirad
sxva problemebis gadawyvetasTanac aris dakavSirebuli.
mniSvnelovania, rom adamianebi ara marto Cavidnen axali
aTvisebis raionebSi, aramed darCnen iq samuSaod da

154
sacxovreblad xangrZlivi drois ganmavlobaSi. sanam adamiani
axal pirobebSi muSaobis gamocdilebas daagrovebs, gadis ara
nakleb naxevari weli. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, arsebobs
axalmosaxleTa `Seguebis~ problema. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi
roca adamiani axal adgilze cota xnis muSaobis Semdeg ukan
miemgzavreba, sazogadoeba mniSvnelovan ekonomikur da
socialur danakargebs ganicdis.
amrigad, migraciis Tanamedrove tendenciebi sakmaod
mravalferovania, da maTi Seswavla, demografiis rogorc
mecnierebis, mniSvnelovan amocanas warmoadgens.
axla gadavideT demografiuli procesebis analizis Semdgom
etapze _ misi rogorc Tanamedrove Taviseburebebis, aseve maTi
Sedegebis kompleqsTaAda agreTve qveynis demografiuli
ganviTarebis perspeqtivebis Seswavlaze.

ssrk-is mosaxleobis ganviTarebis xangrZlivi

tendenciebi da maTi Sedegebi

demografiuli procesebis Tanamedrove tendenciebze

saubrisas saWiroa aRvniSnoT maTi mniSvnelovani Tavisebureba.
daaxloebiT 70-iani wlebis meore naxevridan Sobadoba
ramdenadme gaizarda, gansakuTrebiT axalgazrdul asakebSi, im
raionebSi, sadac adre igi dabali iyo, pirvel rigSi rsfsr-Si,
ukrainaSi, belorusiasa da baltiispireTis respublikebSi.
qveyanaSi Sobadobis saerTo ricxvi marto 1969-1984 wlebSi 4 087
aTasidan 5 389 aTasamde, anu 31,8%-iT gaizarda. Tu 1965-1966

155
wlebSi rsfsr-Si 15-dan 19 wlamde asakis qalebSi Sobadobis
asakobrivi koeficienti Seadgenda 24,7%0-s, ukve 1982-1983 wlebSi
_ 44,7%0-s, 20-24 wlis asakebSi _ 150,3 da 163,8%0-s, magram ukve 25-
29 wlis asakebSi _ Sesabamisad 120,1 da 113,2%0-s.
ukanasknel wlebSi gaCenaTa saerTo ricxvSi gaizarda meore
bavSvTa xvedriTi wilic. 1965 wels rigiT meore bavSvebis
xvedriTma wilma gaCenilTa saerTo ricxvSi Seadgina 27,4%, 1974
wels _ 28,0, 1983 wels _ 35,4%, ojaxebSi mesame bavSvTa xvedriTi
wili iyo 1965 wels _ 14,0%, 1973 wels _ 10,0% da 1983 wels _
11,5%. es mowmobs, rom SesamCnevad gaizarda axalgazrda
ojaxebis ricxvi, sadac xSirad ibadeba meore, da gacilebiT
naklebi _ mesame bavSvi, Tumca ukanasknel wlebSi aqac aris
garkveuli Zvrebi. magram mosaxleobis gafarToebuli
kvlavwarmoebis garantia SeiZleba iyos `sam bavSvian~ ojaxze
gadasvla. saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT, rom Sobadobis Semcireba
Sua aziis respublikebSi mimdinareobs pirvel rigSi meSvide,
merve da ufro maRali rigiTobis bavSvebis gaCenaTa ricxvis
SemcirebiT, rac iwvevs pirveli, meore da mesame rigiTobis
bavSvTa xvedriTi wilis zrdas.
qveyanaSi gaCenaTa saerTo ricxvis zrda da maTi struqturis
cvlileba garkveulwilad dakavSirebulia mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxvSi 20-dan 30 wlamde asakis axalgazrda qalebis ricxvis
zrdasTan, bavSvTaSobis asakSi adre arsebuli sqesobrivi
disproporciis likvidaciasTan da qorwinebaSi Sesvlis
saSualo asakis SemcirebasTan. Sobadobis saerTo ricxvis zrdas
xeli Seuwyo iseTi struqturuli faqtoris gavlenamac,
rogoricaa mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobaSi Sobadobis maRali
donis mqone respublikebis, upirveles yovlisa Sua aziis

156
respublikebis mosaxleobis xvedriTi wilis zrda. 1970 wels
isini Seadgendnen ssrk-is mosaxleobis 8,2%-s, xolo 1984 wels _
10,5%-s. v.a.borisovis gaangariSebiT struqturuli faqtoris
gavleniT aixsneba 1970 wels Sobadobis zogadi koeficientis
17,4%0-dan, 1980 wels _ 18,3%0-mde matebis 44%.
saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT skkp-is XXVI yrilobis
gadawyvetilebebis safuZvelze bavSviani ojaxebisaTvis
saxelmwifo daxmarebis RonisZiebaTaAkompleqsis zemoqmedebac.
amitom, ukanasknel wlebSi gaCenaTa ricxvis zrdis mizezTa
analizisas saWiroa mxedvelobaSi miviRoT reproduqciuli
qcevis standartebis SesaZlo cvlilebebic, axalgazrdebSi
Taviseburi modis gaCenac ki, ojaxSi ara erTi, aramed ori
bavSvis yolaze.
gaCenaTa ricxvis zrdaSi, romelic axla SeimCneva, aris kidev
erTi aspeqti _ ekonomikuri. Tu winaswar ar gaviTvaliswinebT
gaCenaTa ricxvis aseT cvlilebebs, angariSs ar gavuwevT
demografTa rekomendaciebs, maSin SesaZloa ekonomikis
ganviTarebaSi garkveuli siZneleebi warmoiSvas. rac ufro metia
gaCenaTa raodenoba, miT metia moTxovna bavSvis tansacmelsa da
sakvebze, sabavSvo skolamdel da samedicino dawesebulebebze da
a.S. erTi sityviT, aq demografiuli problemebi, mosaxleobis
zrdis tendenciebis ganWvreta TvalsaCinod da sagrZnobladaa
dakavSirebuli saxalxo meurneobriv dagegmvasTan.
raSia rsfsr-Si, ukrainaSi, belorusiasa da zogierT sxva
respublikaSi Sobadobis Semcirebis xangrZlivi tendenciis
mizezi. isini bevria, romlebic qmnian rTul da zogjer
winaaRmdegobriv kompleqss.

157
 upirveles yovlisa aRvniSnavT, ojaxSi bavSvis `ekonomikuri
rolis~ dacemas. axla bavSvebi aRar warmoadgenen, rogorc
warsulSi, muSakebs adreuli asakidanve, romlebsac ojaxis
SemosavalSi TavianTi, xSirad mniSvnelovani wvlili SehqondaT,
da es, Cveni sazogadoebis udavod mniSvnelovani socialuri
monapovaria. ufro metic, bavSvebi mxolod 16 wlis asakidan
iwyeben Sromas, iZenen arsebobis damoukidebel wyaros, xolo
sayovelTao saSualo ganaTlebis SemoRebis Semdeg ki ufro
gvian, gansakuTrebiT Tu gaviTvaliswinebT umaRlessa da
teqnikumSi swavlis periods.
Cvens qveyanaSi ar aris umuSevroba, xolo ufrosi asakis
pirTa uzrunvelyofas, arsebuli socialuri uzrunvelyofis
progresuli sistemis meSveobiT saxelmwifo anxorcielebs. ase
rom, bavSvebi aRar warmoadgenen `dazRvevas~ moxucebulobis
SemTxvevaSi. Cvens droSi bavSvi sakmaod didxans swavlobs
skolaSi, Semdeg saswavlebelSi. Sedegad, saxelmwifo daxmarebis
miuxedavad, is gaxda ojaxis xangrZlivi `kapitaluri dabandebis~
obieqti.
TiToeuli ojaxi cdilobs, rom bavSvi kargad iyos Cacmuli,
miiRos yvelaferi rac aucilebelia misi sulieri da fizikuri
ganviTarebisaTvis. bavSvis Senaxvaze gaweuli danaxarjebi
sakmaod didia da Seadgens magaliTad, qalaqur ojaxSi Cveni
gaangariSebiT 7 wlamde asakis bavSvisaTvis saSualod
yovelTviurad 75-80 maneTs. 66 magram ojaxis (ara marto fuladi,
aramed umTavresad drois, gansakuTrebiT dedis) biujeti
SezRudulia. amasTanave yoveli axali bavSvi ojaxSi esaa

66
n.i.kiriCenkos gaangariSebiT skolamdeli asakis bavSvis racionaluri normiT Senaxvis
xarjebi Seadgens, TveSi 45 maneTs, xolo moswavlis Senaxvisa ki _ 76 maneTs.

158
xangrZlivi Sesveneba dedis muSaobaSi, rac auaresebs ojaxis
materialur mdgomareobas.
mniSvnelovania xazi gavusvaT, rom qalis sazogadoebriv
warmoebaSi Cabmis procesi _ progresuli da Seuqcevadi
movlenaa. sabWoTa qalebisaTvis samuSao ara marto arsebobis
saSualebaTa wyaroa, aramed esaa adgili, sadac isini bevr
informacias Rebuloben. didi xniT samuSaodan mowyveta,
gansakuTrebiT qalaqad, iwvevs piradi da profesiuli
kontaqtebis gawyvetas. amitom, zogjer, fexmokidebuli azri, imis
Sesaxeb, rom `qalis ojaxSi dabrunebiT,~ bevri cxovrebiseuli
problemis gadawyveta SeiZleba, saeWvoa, rom realuri da
dasabuTebuli iyos, gansakuTrebiT ganaTlebis maRali donisa
da saintereso profesiis mqone qalebisaTvis.
perspeqtivaSi, sanam sazogadoeba ver SeZlebs bavSvTa
dawesebulebebis muSaobis mniSvnelovnad gaumjobesebasTan
erTad, sazogadoebrivi aRzrdis qseliT srulad moicvas mTeli
mozardi Taoba, saWiroa gamovideT iqidan, rom Sromisa da
kvlavwarmoebis funqciebs SeiTavsebs ojaxi.
amasTan, ar SeiZleba davupirispiroT erTmaneTs
sazogadoebriv warmoebaSi muSaoba da bavSvis aRzrda. ojaxis es
orive funqcia gansakuTrebuli mniSvnelobisaa da aucilebelia
mivaRwioT maT harmoniul SeTanawyobas sxvadasxva RonisZiebaTa
sistemasTan, rac saSualebas mogvcemda agvemaRlebina (an ar
Segvemcirebina mainc) bavSvis gaCenisas ojaxis done da
cxovrebis pirobebi. Zalian mniSvnelovania or-sam Sviliani
ojaxebis prestiJulobis propaganda.

159
 Sobadobis waxalisebis RonisZiebebi aucilebelia imitomac,
rom socialisturi sazogadoeba araa dainteresebuli qveynis
mosaxleobis Sekvecil kvlavwarmoebaze gadasvliT.
arsebobs Tu ara axla Sekvecili kvlavwarmoeba? mTlianad
qveyanaSi, ra Tqma unda, ara, da amaze metyvelebs adre moyvanili,
upirveles yovlisa ki kohortuli maCveneblebi. rac Seexeba
Sobadobis dabali donis mqone calkeuli regionebis
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebas, am kiTxvaze pasuxis gasacemad
aucilebelia mosaxleobis ramdenime Taobis kvlavwarmoebis
donis maCveneblebis regionul WrilSi qona.
Sekvecili kvlavwarmoeba SeiZleba Camoyalibdes upirveles
yovlisa Sobadobis intensivobis Semcirebis Sedegad, romelic
Tavisi tempebiT uswrebs mokvdaobis intensivobis Semcirebis
tempebs. sqesobrivi struqturis garkveuli disproporciis dros,
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis Sekvecili tipi ramdenime xniT
SeiZleba Camoyalibdes Sobadobisa da mokvdaobis ucvleli
asakobrivi intensivobis drosac. asakobrivi struqturis aseTi
specifika, upirveles yovlisa SeiZleba Camoyalibdes, ama Tu im
regionidan, gansakuTrebiT soflidan qalaqad, axalgazrdebis
didi raodenobiT wasvlis xarjze. swored aseTi situacia
Seiqmna 70-iani wlebis dasawyisSi rsfsr-s araSavmiwaniadagiani
zonis zogierTi olqis soflebSi.
intensiuri migraciis Sedegad axalgazrdebisa da saSualo
asakis pirTaAraodenobis mkveTri Semcireba araSavmiwaniadagiani
zonis mosaxleobaSi iwvevs maRali asakis pirTa xvedriTi wilis
zrdas, da maSasadame, saboloo jamSi izrdeba gardacvlilTa
ricxvic, izrdeba mokvdaobis zogadi koeficientic. ase
magaliTad, 1959-dan 1970 wlamde periodSi 60 wlisa da meti

160
asakis mosaxleobis xvedriTi wili fskovis olqis mTel
mosaxleobaSi gaizarda 14,4%-dan 17,7%-mde, mokvdaobis zogadi
koeficienti gaizarda 9,8%0-dan 1960 wels, 13,2%0-mde 1974 wels.
amrigad, mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqturis mkveTr cvlilebas
SeuZlia mniSvnelovnad imoqmedos qveynis ama Tu im nawilis
demografiul situaciaze, rac kidev erTxel adasturebs,
rogorc mTeli qveynisaTvis, aseve misi calkeuli
regionebisTvisac xalxTmosaxleobis problemis gadawyvetisadmi
aqtiuri midgomis aucileblobas.67
mosaxleobis Sekvecili kvlavwarmoebis tendenciebis
uaxloesi ekonomikur-demografiuli Sedegebi garkveulwilad
ukve axla axdens gavlenas Cveni qveynis ekonomikaze, upirveles
yolisa 60-ian wlebSi Sobadobis absoluturi ricxvis, da
maSasadame, momavalSi potenciuri SromiTi resursebis sididis
SemcirebiT.
Tu gavagrZelebT qveynis zogierTi nawilis
mosaxleobisaTvis Sekvecili kvlavwarmoebis rogorc Sobadobis
Semcirebis Sedegebis ganxilvas, maSin misi yvelaze sagrZnobi
Sedegi SeiZleba iyos mosaxleobis asakobrivi Semadgenlobis
cvlileba, upirveles yovlisa axalgazrdebis ricxvis Semcireba
da Tavdapirvelad saSualo, xolo Semdgom xandazmuli asakis
adamianTa xvedriTi wilis zrda, e.i. mosaxleobis daberebis
procesis daCqareba. sqesobrivi struqturis aseTi cvlilebebi
ar SeiZleba sasurvelad miviCnioT, ara marto sazogadoebis
sawarmoo ZalTa ganviTarebis perspeqtivebis poziciebidan.

67
skkp-is ck-isa da ssrk-is ministrTa sabWom mTeli rigi dadgenilebebi miiRo rsfsr-s
araSavmiwaniadagiani zonis Semdgomi ganviTarebis Sesaxeb. maTi warmatebiT ganxorcieleba
xels Seuwyobs qveynis am nawilSi mosaxleobis problemebis gadawyvetasac.

161
mosaxleobis dabereba iwvevs rig socialur da fsiqologiur
Sedegebsac.
ssrk-Si 60 wlisa da meti asakis pirTa xvedriTi wili
gaizarda 6,7%-dan 1926 wels, 13,3%-mde 1975 wlis dasawyisisaTvis.
ase magaliTad, 1959 wlis aRweris monacemebiT, mosaxleobis
sicocxlis xangrZlivoba Seadgenda 68,6 wels, xolo 60 wlisa
da meti asakis pirTa xvedriTi wili _ 9,4%-s. 1970 wlis aRweris
monacemebis bazaze gaangariSebuli Sesabamisi maCveneblebi iyo
69,5 weli da 11,2%.
yuradsaRebia, rom am periodSi maRali asakis pirTa
xvedriTi wilis mniSvnelovani zrdis miuxedavad, mosaxleobis
sicocxlis xangrZlivoba umniSvnelod Seicvala. maSasadame,
amJamad mosaxleobis daberebis ZiriTadi mizezia Sobadobis
ricxvis Semcireba, rac iwvevs mosaxleobis asakobrivi
struqturis TandaTanobiT cvlilebas.
magram mosaxleobis dabereba aris Sekvecili kvlavwarmoebis
mxolod erT-erTi Sedegi. mosaxleobis ZiriTadi masisaTvis
aseTi tipi rom iyos damaxasiaTebeli, maSin saxalxo meurneobis
SromiTi resursebiT uzrunvelyofis problema SeiZleba
ukiduresad gamwvavdes, radganac Sromis nayofierebis zrda ver
SeZlebs dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis bunebrivi klebis
kompensirebas. Sekvecili kvlavwarmoeba arasasurvelia
istoriul perspeqtivaSic. saWiroa RonisZiebaTa kompleqsis
gamoyeneba, raTaAar davuSvaT misi Camoyalibeba.
rogorc ukve aRiniSna, kvlavwarmoebis meore tipi, upirveles
yovlisa damaxasiaTebelia Sua aziis respublikebis soflad
mcxovrebi mosaxleobisaTvis, sadac arsebobs zrdis
maRaltempiani mosaxleobis gafarToebuli kvlavwarmoeba,

162
upirveles yovlisa maRali, ojaxis mier SeuzRudavi Sobadobisa
da SedarebiT dbali mokvdaobis xarjze.
qveynis am nawilSi demografiuli procesebis mniSvnelovan
Taviseburebas warmoadgens soflis mkvidri mosaxleobis, Tavisi
respublikis farglebs gareT, sxva xalxebTan SedarebiT dabali
teritoriuli moZraoba. es bevradaa damokidebuli rusuli enis
arasakmaris codnasa da soflis meurneobaSi muSaobis Cvevaze.
magaliTad, 1970 wlis aRweram gviCvena, rom uzbekebis mxolod
15% Tvlida, rom maT Tavisuflad icodnen rusuli ena, 68 Tanac
maTi mniSvnelovani nawili cxovrobda qalaqad; 1979 wels es
maCvenebeli 49,3%-mde gaizarda.
Sua aziis respublikebSi mosaxleobis zrdis maRali tempi _
yovelwliurad daaxloebiT 3% _ am xalxebis socialur-
istoriuli ganviTarebis specifikiTaa ganpirobebuli. isini
socializmSi gadavidnen feodalizmidan, kapitalizmis gverdis
avliT, romlisTvisac damaxasiaTebelia patriarqalur ojaxze
da maRal Sobadobaze damangreveli gavlena. Cvens droSi
soflis meurneobis maRalSemosavlian dargebSi kolmeurneebis
materialuri keTildReobis swrafi zrda, maTi moTxovnilebis
struqturis Zalian neli evoluciis pirobebSi, qmnis ekonomikur
bazas mravalSviliani ojaxis cxovrebisaTvis. da axla
mravalSvilianobis SenarCunebuli mravalsaukunovani
tradiciebis pirobebSi da mosaxleobis dabali moZraobis dros,
soflis, aulis, kiSlakis sazogadoebrivi azri tradiciulad
axalisebs did ojaxebs; isini TiTqosda aucilebel elements
warmoadgens.

68
SegaxsenebT, rom mosaxleobis aRwerebis Catarebis meTodikis Tanaxmad, es cifri
gamosakiTx adamianTa TviTSefasebazea damyarebuli.

163
 magram principSi gardauvalia patara ojaxebze gadasvla,
razec metyvelebs iseTi respublikebis gamocdileba, rogoricaa
yazaxeTi, somxeTi, moldaveTi da upirveles yovlisa,
azerbaijani, sadac mosaxleobis sayofacxovrebo tradiciebi
Zlian hgavs Sua aziis respublikebis mkvidri mosaxleobis
Cveulebebs.
axla SevecadoT ganzogadebuli saxiT warmovidginoT
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis Tanamedrove tipi imasTan
SedarebiT, rogoric iyo warsulSi, maRali Sobadobisa da
mokvdaobis pirobebSi. amis SesaZleblobas iZleva l.v.darskis
mier gamoangariSebuli krebsiTi cxrili. moviyvanoT igi
ramdenadme Secvlili formiT (ix. cxrili 15)
Tu cxrilis monacemebs davakvirdebiT, TvalnaTliv
davinaxavT ori tipis kvlavwarmoebis Taviseburebebs.
Tavdapirvelad aRvniSnavT, rom kvlavwarmoebis ciklis saboloo
Sedegi, e.i. mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis neto-koeficienti
damrgvalebiT udris 1,6 da 1,1. raodenobrivad es maCvenebelebi
umniSvnelod gansxvavdebian, magram xarisxobrivad igi metad
mniSvnelovania, ramdenadac gansxvavebulia is komponentebi,
romlebic kvlavwarmoebaTa am tipebis formirebas ganapirobebs.
pirveli _ esaa bavSvTaSobis asakis qalebis mokvdaobiT
gamowveuli gansxvaveba Sobadobis danakargebSi; aq XIX saukunis
bolosa da Cveni drois maCveneblebi (1,26 da 0,17) gansxvavdeba 7-
jer da metad. Sesabamisad, didia pirvel SemTxvevaSi (0,41 daA0,23)
daqvrivebis Sedegad Sobadobis danakargebi.
Tu gasuli saukunis dasasruls praqtikulad ar iyo
`danakargebi~ bavSvTa ricxvSi ganqorwinebis Sedegad, rac
pasuxobda im drois cxovrebis pirobebsa da ojaxis tips, Cvens

164
 cxrili 15
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis maCveneblebis formirebaze
moqmedi faqtorebi misi sxvadasxva tipis dros
ruseTis ssrk XXs-is
evropuli 70-iani
nawili XIXs. wlebis
bolos bolos.
bavSvTa saSualo ricxvi, romelic SeeZlo gaeCina
qals yvelaze ufro xelsayrel pirobebSi 12,44 12,44
maTgan sul ar gauCeniaT bavSvi 6,20 10,18
maT Soris:
reproduqciuli asakis dasrulebamde qalis
sikvdilis gamo 1,26 0,17

qalTa nawilis gauTxovrobis gamo 0,55 0,41

imis gamo rom yvela qali bavSvTaSobis asakis

miRwevisTanave ar daqorwinda 2,38 2,46

bavSvTaSobis asakis bolomde daqvrivebis gamo

qorwinebis gareSe yofna 0,41 0,23

ganqorwinebis gamo qorwinebis gareSe yofna 0,00 0.82

rogorc cudi janmrTelobis an Sobadobis

Segnebulad aridebis Sedegi 1,60 6,09

sul gaaCines bavSvebi 6,24 2,26

maT Soris gogonebi 3,00 1,10

gaCenili gogonebidan mokvdaobis arsebuli

reJimis gaTvaliswinebiT Sansi aqvT icocxlon 1,63 1,06
bavSvTaSobis asakis dadgomamde da gaagrZelon
kvlavwarmoebis axali cikli

165
droSi isini ukve sakmaod mniSvnelovania _ 0,82. Semdeg
aRvniSnoT mniSvnelovani raodenobrivi gansxvaveba; XIX saukunis
bolos, upirveles yovlisa meuRleTa, gansakuTrebiT ki dedis
cudi janmrTelobis gamo `ikargeboda~ 1,6 bavSvi. Cvens droSi
amas daemata Sobadobis Segnebuli SezRudvis gavlena da es
faqtori `Wams~ Sobadobis potenciuri ricxvis TiTqmis naxevars
(6,09), e.i. iwvevs ZiriTad `danakargebs.~
mTlianobaSi mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis amJamad
Camoyalibebuli tipi mokvdaobiT gamowveuli danakargebis
Semcirebis gamo ufro progresulia. am kuTxiT igi ufro
humanuria da, zogjer amboben, rom ufro ekonomiuria, vidre
Zalian maRal mokvdaobasa da SeuzRudav Sobadobaze
damyarebuli mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis tipi.
Cvens droSi arsebiTad Seicvala ojaxSi roluri funqciebi,
sazogadoebrivi azris damokidebuleba qorwinebasa da
qorwinebis daSlasTan dakavSirebiT. axla ganqorwineba bavSviani
qalisaTvis aRar warmoadgens ekonomikur katastrofas.
sazogadoebrivi azrisa da ojaxis garSemomyofTa mier, is ar
aRiqmeba rogorc mkveTrad negatiuri. Tanamedrove ojaxi
`ganmtkicebulia~ ara qmris `ekonomiuri ZalauflebiT,~ aramed
upirveles yovlisa meuRleTa siyvaruliTa da
urTierTpativiscemiT. 69 erTi sityviT, ojaxis `gvergvi~ gaxda
upirveles yovlisa araekonomiuri, fsiqologiuri faqtorebi; is
damyarebulia meuRleTa Tanxmobasa da Tanasworuflebianobaze,
rogorc sociologebi amboben, man miiRo egalitaruli xasiaTi.

69
aRvniSnavT, rom cnebam _ `ojaxis ufrosi~, romelic jer kidev gvxvdeba zogierT
publikaciebSi, praqtikulad dakarga is azri, romelic masSi Tavdapirvelad
igulisxmeboda da wminda formaluri kategoria gaxda.

166
magram es mniSvnelovani socialuri monapovari ganapirobebs
erTmaneTis mimarT meuRleTa moTxovnis zrdas, rogorc
socialur, aseve kulturuli da fsiqologiuri TvalsazrisiT,
rac qmnis ganqorwinebis momatebul risks. rasac adre meuRleTa
ekonomikuri uTanasworoba aferxebda, axla moispo, Seicvala
agreTve sazogadoebrivi azric. ra Tqma unda, es faqtorebi ar
amarTlebs daufiqrebel qorwinebebsa da ganqorwinebebs, magram
aucilebelia gvaxsovdes, rom daSlil ojaxTa ricxvis zrdas
safuZvlad udevs socialur-ekonomiuri faqtorebi.
amasTanave qalis rogorc muSakisa da mSromelis rolis
gadaWarbebam misi dedobrivi funqciis dakargvis sazianod, da
qalis gazrdilma ekonomiurma damoukideblobam, rig SemTxvevaSi
gamoiwvia ojaxis cxovrebiseul faseulobaTa sistemaSi bavSvTa
mniSvnelobis dacema. zogierTi qali demostraciulad
ugulvebelyofs qalis _ rogorc dedisa da ojaxis diasaxlisis
rols da `ojaxis gareSe~ interesebzea orientirebuli. asea Tu
ara es sinamdvileSi _ es sxva sakiTxia, magram msgavsi
ganwyobilebis zrda TavisTavad yuradsaRebia.
rogoriRaa ssrk-is mosaxleobis ganviTarebis pespeqtivebi?
isini didad aris damokidebuli imaze, Tu ramdenad Sedegiani
iqneba axla qveyanaSi mimdinare demografiuli politika, Tumca
misi efeqturoba ar SeiZleba axlave Sefasdes, amisTvis sakmaod
xangrZlivi droa saWiro. amitom mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis
momavali parametrebisaTvis raime raodenobrivi Sefasebis micema,
da miT umetes zogjer arasruli statistikuri informaciis
pirobebSi, sakmaod Znelia. Cven, aqamde arsebuli regionuli
gansxvavebis gaTvaliswinebiT, mxolod mosaxleobis moZraobis

167
sxvadasxva komponentis xarisxobrivi maCveneblebiT
SemovifarglebiT.
SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom xanmokle perspeqtivaSi, e.i. Cveni
saukunis bolomde, gagrZeldeba qveynis regionebis mixedviT
Sobadobis intensivobis daaxloebis aqtiuri procesi. SemdgomSi
(SeiZleba daCqarebuli tempiTac ki) SesamCnevi iqneba Sua aziis
respublikebSi, gansakuTrebiT soflis mosaxleobaSi, Sobadobis
intensivobis Semcirebis procesi. aq, yvelaze savaraudoa, rom
moxdes mravalSvilianidan, saSualoSvilian da cota
mogvianebiT ki mcireSvilian ojaxze gadasvla. aseT pirobebSi
mniSvnelovania demografiuli politikis gaaqtiureba imisaTvis,
rom ar moxdes mosaxleobis ZiriTadi nawilis gadasvla
mcireSvilian ojaxze.
amierkavkasiis iseT respublikebSi, rogoricaa azerbaijani
da somxeTi, agreTve yazaxeTsa da moldaveTSi, perspeqtivaSi,
dasrulebasTan axlos iqneba (an ukve dasruldeba) Sobadobis
dabal doneze da mcireSvilian ojaxebze gadasvla.
rac Seexeba Sobadobis dabali donis mqone respublikebs
(rsfsr, ukraina, belorusia, saqarTvelo, baltiispireTi), maTi
cvlilebis perspeqtivebi gansakuTrebiT mWidrodaa
dakavSirebuli mTlianad qveynis socialur-ekonomiuri
ganviTarebis tendenciebTan.
daavadebisa da mokvdaobis tendenciebi didad iqneba
damokidebuli mecnierebis ganviTarebis warmatebebsa da
janmrTelobis dacvis organoebis efeqtur funqcionirebaze.
SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom am sferoSic SenarCunebuli iqneba
sicocxlis xangrZlivobis zrdis progresuli tendencia CvilTa
mokvdaobisa da tramvatizmiT gamowveuli mokvdaobis Semdgomi

168
Semcirebis xarjze, saSualo asakis pirTa yofiTi da sawarmoo
ubeduri SemTxvevebisagan gardacvalebis Semcirebis xarjze da
a.S.. aq, did rols iTamaSebs mosaxleobis Sromisa Dda dasvenebis
racionalizacia, masobrivi fizkulturisa da sportis
ganviTareba.
perspeqtivaSi gaizrdeba mosaxleobis teritoriuli moZraoba,
gansakuTrebiT qveynis aRmosavleT raionebSi. amave dros
Sobadobis dabali donis raionebSi mosaxleobis gadaadgilebis
intensivoba sofeli-qalaqis mimarTulebiT SeiZleba Semcirdes,
miT ufro, rom am raionebSi migrantTa potenciuri rezervebi
umniSvneloa.
mTlianobaSi Cvens qveyanaSi demografiuli situacia sakmaod
mravalferovania, misi Seswavla TiToeuli regionis istoriuli
ganviTarebis Taviseburebebis gaTvaliswinebasa da
demografiuli analizis sxvadasxva meTodebis gamoyenebas
moiTxovs.

169
 TaviV
ra aris demografiuli politika?

skkp-is ck-is aprilis (1985 w.) plenumze aRiniSna, rom `qveynis

socialur- ekonomikuri daCqarebis umaRles mizans skkp xedavs
imaSi, rom ganuxrelad nabij-nabij aamaRlos xalxis
keTildReoba, gaaumjobesos sabWoTa adamianebis cxovrebis
yvela mxare, Seqmnas xelsayreli pirobebi pirovnebis
harmoniuli ganviTarebisaTvis.~70
sabWoTa xalxis keTildReobis Semdgomi amaRlebisaTvis
partiis mier dasaxuli RonisZiebebi moiTxovs, saxalxo
meurneobrivi dagegmvis srulyofis, rigi grZelvadiani
socialur-ekonomikuri programebis realizaciisadmi kompleqsur
midgomas.
Cveni sazogadoebis grZelvadian socialur-ekonomikur
dagegmvaze gadasvlasTan dakavSirebiT gaizarda demografiuli
procesebis ganviTarebis tendenciebisa da maTi Sedegebis
gaTvaliswinebis aucilebloba, radganac 25-30 wlian
gaangariSebebSi ara marto mTlianad qveynisaTvis, aramed
regionebis mixedviTac, cvlilebebi maT xasiaTSi SeiZleba
sakmaod arsebiTi iyos da maTi gavlena aisaxeba saxalxo
meurneobis gegmebis realizaciazec.
grZelvadiani socialur-ekonomikuri dagegmva, mTlianad
Cveni sazogadoebis ganviTarebis marTva, aucilebel elementad
unda moicavdes demografiul procesebze sazogadoebis
mizanmimarTul zemoqmedebasac. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, saqme

70
Правда, 1985, 24 апреля.

170
exeba demografiuli procesebis marTvas, anu demografiul
politikas.
nebismieri procesis marTva unda moicavdes, jer erTi, am
moqmedebaTa miznis gansazRvras, e.i. samarTavi obieqtis im
parametrebs, romliskenac Cven miviswrafiT. meore elementia _ im
Tavdapirveli mdgomareobis analizi, romelSic imyofeba
samarTavi obieqti marTvis moqmedebis programis realizaciis
dasawyisSi. nebismieri procesis marTvisaTvis aucilebelia
gvqondes sazomTa sistema, romelic saSualebas iZleva
vakontroloT samarTavi sistemis mdgomareobis cvlileba.
demografiul procesebTan dakavSirebiT _ esaa maTi analizis
meTodebi.
demografiuli situacia (an rogorc zogjer amboben
demografiuli viTareba), Tavisi arsiT warmoadgens mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis xangrZlivi tendenciebis elements, romelic
yalibdeba socialur-ekonomikur faqtorTa ganmsazRvreli
gavleniT. ufro rTuladaa saqme samarTavi moqmedebebis miznis
gansazRvrisas, e.i. demografiul procesTa im parametrebze,
romliskenac Cven miviswrafiT perspeqtivaSi.
rTuli socialur-ekonomikuri procesebis marTvis
safuZvlebis damuSavebisas, upirveles yovlisa aucilebelia
gaviTvaliswinoT maTi Taviseburebani, rac SemdgomSi
gansazRvravs aseT moqmedebaTa zogad principebsac. cnobilia,
rom mosaxleobaSi mimdinare procesTa xasiaTi icvleba
socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebis gavleniT, romlebic
TiToeul sazogadoebriv formaciaSi specifikurad vlindeba. es
gavlena martivad ar unda gavigoT, kerZod TiTqosda
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis zrdasTan erTad raRacnairad

171
imave proporciiT izrdeba (an mcirdeba) Sobadobis intensivoba.
socialur-ekonomikur da demografiul movlenebs Soris
arsebobs demografiuli qcevis Taviseburi gadamcemi meqanizmi.
demografiul procesTa marTvis SesaZleblobaze moqmed
mniSvnelovan Taviseburebas warmoadgens is Tviseba, rasac
demografebma inerciuloba uwodes. misi arsi isaa, rom
demografiul procesTa parametrebi, demografiuli struqturebi,
droSi sakmaod nela icvleba, da maTi Tanamedrove parametrebi
umeteswilad warsulis socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebis
anareklia.
dawvrilebiT SevCerdeT Cvens qveyanaSi demografiuli
politikis gatarebaze. rogorc cnobilia skkp-is XXV
yrilobaze Camoyalibda debuleba garemos dacvisa da
xalxTmosaxleobis problemebis gamwvavebis Sesaxeb. imaze, rom
es mdgomareoba SenarCunebulia, laparaki iyo skkp-is XXVI
yrilobazec. ra unda gvesmodes xalxTmosaxleobis problemebisa
da demografiuli situaciis gamwvavebaSi?
demografiuli situaciis gamwvavebaSi SeiZleba gvesmodes
Semdegi momentebi:
sazogadoebis grZelvadiani interesebis poziciebidan
gamomdinare Sobadobis intensivobis donis Semcireba
minimalurad dasaSvebze dabla;
rogorc dabadebisas aseve calkeul asakebSi mosaxleobis
sicocxlis xangrZlivobis zrdis Sewyveta;
sazogadoebis grZelvadiani interesebis poziciidan,
migraciis araracionaluri mimarTuleba da axalmosaxleTa
SeCvevis dabali done;

172
 qveynis calkeul regionebSi disproporciuli, upirveles
yovlisa sqesobriv-asakobrivi, demografiuli struqturebis
formireba;
sazogadoebis interesebis sawinaaRmdego ganqorwinebis
maRali maCvenebeli.
demografiuli politikis gatareba moiTxovs parametrebisa
da mosaxleobis kvalvwarmoebis im tipis gansazRvras, romelic
miCneulia yvelaze sasurvelad, e.i. optimalurad, perspeqtivaSi.
aseTi tipis SerCeva unda gamomdinareobdes im miznidan, rasac
isaxavs sazogadoeba da romelsac emorCileba yvela socialuri
da ekonomikuri amocanis gadawyveta.
am mizans warmoadgens ganviTarebuli socialisturi
sazogadoebis gegmazomieri da yovelmxrivi srulyofa, da
maSasadame, komunizmisaken Semdgomi winsvla. 71 mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis aseTi tipis ZiriTadi elementebis gansazRvrisas
aucilebelia gaviTvaliswinoT misi ganviTarebis generaluri
tendenciebi, Cvens qveyanaSi amJamad arsebuli mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis sxvadasxva tipebis Sedegebi.
sabWoTa demografebis gamokvlevebma gviCvenes, rom
grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi mosaxleobis yvelaze sasurveli
kvlavwarmoebis tipis ZiriTad damaxasiaTebel niSnebad SeiZleba
davasaxeloT Semdegi:
arcTu maRali Sobadoba, romelic, zrdis mcire tempebiT
uzrunvelyofs mosaxleobis gafarToebul kvlavwarmoebas.
Sobadobis aseT tips pasuxobs tipiuri or-sambavSviani ojaxi;72

71
ix.: Материалы Пленума Центрального Комитета КПСС, 14-15 июня 1983 г., с. 8-9.
72
roca tipiur ojaxzea saubari, es niSnavs rom yvelaze mravalricxovani da
gavrcelebuli unda iyos or-sambavSviani ojaxebi, danarCeni tipis ojaxebi ki _ ufro
iSviaTi.

173
 rogorc dabadebisas, aseve sxvadasxva asakebSi mosaxleobis
sicocxlis xangrZlivobis mudmivi zrda;
migraciis sxvadasxva formebis intensivobis zrda;
mosaxleobis xarisxis mudmivi zrda;
perspeqtivaSi kvlavwarmoebis aseTi tipi mTeli qveynisaTvis
erTiani unda gaxdes, regionul aspeqtSi konkretuli,
araprincipuli gansxvavebis SenarCunebis pirobebSi.
saWiroa gansakuTrebiT vTqvaT mosaxleobis xarisxze. ra
Tqma unda, saqme exeba, ara imas, rom erTi adamiani ukeTesia da
meore _ uaresi. farTo gagebiT mosaxleobis xarisxSi
igulisxmeba axali codnis SeTvisebis siCqare, mosaxleobis
umetesi jgufebis mier cxovrebisa da Sromis axali
pirobebisadmi Semgueblobis siswrafe. mosaxleobis xarisxi
garkveulwilad vlindeba ganaTlebis donis zrdaSi,
profesiuli struqturis srulyofasa da sxva niSan-TvisebebSi.
ufro dawvrilebiT SevCerdeT ssrk-Si demografiuli
politikis gatarebis Taviseburebebsa da mis meTodebze.
dRemde sadavo problemaa, unda gansxvavdebodes Tu ara
demografiuli politika qveynis raionebis mixedviT. Tu
gamovalT iqidan, rom es politika mimarTuli unda iyos
momavali mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis erTiani, optimaluri
tipis Seqmnisaken, maSin mTel qveyanaSic demografiuli
politikis erTiani mimarTuleba unda xorcieldebodes. magram
amasTanave, xazi unda gavusvaT, rom demografiuli politikis
ama Tu im meTodis SesaZlebloba da racionaluri gamoyeneba
regionis konkretuli pirobidan gamomdinare unda
ganisazRvrebodes.

174
 mosaxleobis Sekvecili kvlavwarmoebis Tavidan acilebis
erT-erTi mimarTuleba unda iyos mokvdaobis Semdgomi Semcireba,
ufro sworad ki sicocxlis xangrZlivobis zrda.
demografiuli politika SeiZleba efeqturi iyos Tu misi
miznebi emTxveva sazogadoebis socialur-ekonomikuri
ganviTarebis saerTo mimarTulebas, mis winsvliT ganviTarebas.
debuleba imis Sesaxeb, rom demografiuli politikis
zogierTi RonisZieba mosazrebaTa sistemis meSveobiT
realizdeba, didad gansazRvravs misi ganxorcielebis
efeqturobis pirobebsa da mis ZiriTad principebs.
Tavisi specifikuri zemoqmedebis gamo, demografiul
politikas Sobadobis sferoSi sagrZnobi da myari Sedegi
mxolod gansazRruli drois Semdeg SeuZlia mogvces. realurad
SeiZleba vimoqmedoT mxolod demografiuli qcevis formirebad
standartebze, upirveles yovlisa axalgazrdobaSi, vinaidan
mozrdil adaminebSi igi ukve naklebad icvleba. am mxriv ufro
plastikuria mosaxleobis warmodgenebi migraciis ama Tu im
saxeobisa da mimarTulebis upiratesobaze.
demografiuli politikis warmatebis meore mniSvnelovani
pirobaa misi mimarTulebisa da miznis xangrZlivi da
mravalwliani mdgradoba. am sferoSi yovelgvari `kursis
Secvla~ mosaxleobis dezorientirebas axdens, ar uwyobs xels
demografiuli qcevis aucilebeli, mtkice standartebis
formirebas.
axali demografiuli idealebi SeiZleba CamovayaliboT (an
SevqmnaT pirobebi, istoriulad umokles droSi arsebuli
idealebis realizaciisaTvis), Tu demografiuli politika
cxovrebaSi tardeba rogorc RonisZiebebis yovelmxrivi da

175
mravalferovani kompleqsi _ Cveni sazogadoebis cxovrebiseul
faseulobaTa sistemaSi, ojaxebisaTvis pirdapiri fuladi
daxmarebebidan dawyebuli, dedobisa da mamobis rolis
propagandamde.
amitom, imis gansazRvra, warmatebulia Tu warumatebeli
demografiuli politika, sakmaod zustad mxolod ramdenime
wlis Semdeg SeiZleba. es ki garkveul fsiqologiur siZneles
qmnis am RonisZiebaTa gatarebisas, vinaidan maTze danaxarjebis
gaweva aucilebelia uaxloes droSi, xolo Sedegi ki SeiZleba
gamovlindes momavalSi, SesaZloa sakmaod SoreulSic.
demografiuli politikis RonisZiebaTa gatarebisas
socialisturi sazogadoeba wyvets ojaxis SromiTi da
kvlavwarmoebiTi funqciebis saukeTesod Sexamebis amocanas.
demografiul procesebze sazogadoebis mizanmimarTuli
zemoqmedebis SesaZleblobas adasturebs evropis rig
socialistur qveyanaTa gamocdileba, sadac ukanasknel
aTwleulebSi tardeboda Sobadobis zrdisaken mimarTuli
demografiuli politika. yvelaze sruli saxiT demografiuli
politikis programebi, daaxloebiT 60-iani wlebis Suaxanebidan
xorcieldeba bulgareTSi, gdr-Si, rumineTSi, ungreTSi,
CexoslovakiaSi. gamocdilebam gviCvena, rom cxovrebis donis
cvlilebasTan da sxvadasxvagvar materialur keTildReobaze
mosaxleobis moTxovnilebis zrdasTan erTad, demografiuli
politikis arsebuli RonisZiebebi mudmivad unda
umjobesdebodes.
risken unda iyos mimarTuli Soreul perspeqtivaSi
demografiuli politika Cvens qveyanaSi? is mimarTuli unda
iyos im socialuri da ekonomikuri problemebis gadawyvetisaken,

176
romlebic qveynis winaSe XXs. bolosa da XXIs. dasawyisSi
dadgeba, radganac demografiuli procesebis inertulobis gamo
sagrZnobi Sedegebis miRweva xangrZliv dros moiTxovs. es
niSnavs, rom RonisZiebaTa sistemis realuri wvlili
sazogadoebiv, maT Soris ekonomikur, ganviTarebaSi sagrZnobi
gaxdeba ara erTbaSad, radganac 90-ian wlebSi dabadebuli
bavSvebi Sromisunarian asakSi Sevlen XXI aswleulSi, roca
warmoebis teqnikuri done mniSvnelovnad maRali iqneba vidre
axlaa. amitom ukve dResaa saWiro vifiqroT mosaxleobis
xarisxobrivi maxasiaTeblebis amaRlebaze
demografiuli politikis obieqtia aseve migraciac.
mosaxleobis teritoriuli moZraoba Tavisi arsiT unda
ganixilebodes rogorc dadebiTi movlena; magram garkveul
SemTxvevebSi mas SeiZleba negatiuri Sedegebic hqondes, amitom
demografiuli politikis gatarebisas saWiroa regionis
pirobebis gaTvaliswineba.
demografiuli politikis efeqturobaSi mniSvnelovani
adgili ukavia ojaxs, amasTan, laparakia ara marto meuRleTa
reproduqciul qcevaze. ojaxSi xorcieldeba bavSvebis aRzrda,
maTi socialuri qcevis gansazRrul normebze, momavali
profesiuli saqmianobis gvarobasa da saxeobaze orientacia.
ojaxi dasawyisidanve ayalibebs (ra Tqma unda, sazogadoebrivi
urTierTobis, da upirveles yovlisa sazogadoebrivi warmoebis
zemoqmedebiT) warmodgenebs migraciis SesaZlo gzebze.
demografiuli politikis RonisZiebaTa romeli jgufebi
arsebobs? pirobiTad isini SeiZleba davyoT sam jgufad: 1)
ekonomiuri, 2) administraciul-iuridiuli, 3) socialur-
fsiqologiuri anu aRmzrdelobiTi.

177
 demografiuli politikis sxvadasxva RonisZiebaTa,
gansakuTrebiT ekonomikuris, gamoyenebis SesaZlebloba da
efeqturoba uSualod warmoebiTi urTierTobis gabatonebul
sistemazea damokidebuli. mxolod socialistur sazogadoebaSi,
misi gegmiani meurneobis meSveobiT iqmneba obieqturi
SesaZlebloba demografiuli politikis sxvadasxvagvari
meTodebis efeqturad gamoyenebisaTvis
Sobadobaze moqmed ekonomikur saSualebebs Soris
aucilebelia gansakuTrebiT gamovyoT RonisZiebaTa kompleqsi,
romelic mowodebulia Seqmnas saukeTeso pirobebi bavSvTa
garkveuli ricxvis myol ojaxebSi SromiTi da aRmzrdelobiTi
funqciebis Sesaxameblad. zogjer isini dahyavT mxolod e.w.
ojaxur Semweobebze, e.i. ojaxebisaTvis pirdapir fulad
daxmarebebze maTSi bavSvTa ricxvis Sesabamisad, rasac xSirad
mravalSvilianobis daxmarebasTan aigiveben. Tu ojaxuri
daxmarebebi miznad isaxavs, rogorc wesi, dabali rigiTobis
Sobadobis stimulirebas (pirveli, meore, mesame bavSvi),
mravalSviliani an naklebaduzrunvelyofili ojaxebisaTvis
Semweoba ki, ekonomikuri daxmarebis RonisZiebas warmoadgens.
ssrk-Si mravalSviliani ojaxebisaTvis pirdapiri fuladi
daxmarebebi jer kidev 1944 wels SemoiRes. am sakanonmdeblo
aqtis Tanaxmad daxmareba eZlevaT yovelTviurad, meoTxe da
Semdgomi bavSvisaTvis, amasTan bavSvis rigiTi nomris zrdasTan
erTad daxmarebis zomac izrdeba. rogorc cnobilia, X
xuTwledSi SemoRebul iqna naklebaduzrunvelyofil ojaxTa
daxmarebis sistema, romlebsac miekuTvneboda ojaxebi, TveSi 50
maneTi da ufro naklebi saSualo suladobrivi SemosavaliT.

178
 demografiuli politikis ekonomikuri saxsrebi Tavisi
SesaZleblobebiTa da nomenklaturiT ar Semoifargleba
daxmarebebiTa da sxva saxis waxalisebaTa gacemiT. aq Sedis
RonisZiebebi, romlebic dedebs saSualebas aZlevs efeqturad
imuSaon sazogadoebriv warmoebaSi. arasruli samuSao dRis
ufro farTod gamoyeneba an mcocavi grafikiT muSaoba,
saSualebas iZleva bavSvis sicocxlis pirvel wlebSi advilad
SeaTavson misi movla da SromiTi saqmianoba.
Sobadobis waxalisebisa da axali demografiuli qcevis
Camoyalibebis erT-erT meTods warmoadgens praqtikaSi
ganxorcielebuli bavSviani ojaxebisaTvis SeRavaTebis micema,
agreTve axaldaqorwinebulTaTvis saxelmwifo sacxovrebeli
farTobis ganawilebisas da sabinao-saamSeneblo kooperativebSi
Sesvlisas SeRavaTebis daweseba.
Sobadobis waxalisebis politikis mniSvnelovani elementia _
maRalxarisxovani sabavSvo tansacmlis, fexsacmlis agreTve
specialurad momzadebuli da kargad gaformebuli bavSvTa
kvebis produqtebis warmoebis moculobis gadideba da
Seuferxebeli gayidva xelmisawvdomi fasebiT.
amasve SeiZleba miekuTvnos ojaxebis daxmarebis iseTi forma,
rogoricaa maTTvis, warmoebisa da organizaciebis fondebis
xarjze, miznobrivi fuladi kreditis SeRavaTiani pirobebiT
micema binis, xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebis sayidlad; aseTi
kreditis nawili, xSirad naxevaric ki, usasyidlod ifareba
meore da mesame bavSvis gaCenisas.
demografiuli politikis ekonomikur RonisZiebaTa sistemaSi
gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs bavSvTa skolamdel
dawesebulebaTa qselis gafarToebasa da muSaobis xarisxis

179
gaumjobesebas. sazogadoebrivi moTxovnis TvalsazrisiT
perspeqtivaSi misi saqmianoba damakmayofileblad mxolod maSin
SeiZleba CaiTvalos, roca yovel ojaxs survilisamebr maSinve
SeeZleba bavSvis sabavSvo baRSi an bagaSi saxlTan an
samsaxurTan axlos, dauyovnebliv mowyoba, 73 da darwmunebuli
iqneba, rom iq movlisa da aRzrdis pirobebi ojaxis pirobebze
uaresi ar iqneba. am mxriv didi mniSvneloba aqvs iq bavSvTa
daavadebebis Semcirebasac, rac ara marto xels Seuwyobs
bavSvis janmrTelobis gaumjobesebas, aramed mniSvnelovnad
Seamcirebs qalebis samuSao drois danakargebsac. amasTan
dakavSirebiT gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas iZens yvela
saministrosa da uwyebis mier bavSvTa skolamdeli
dawesebulebebis mSeneblobis vadebisa da xarisxis mtkiced
dacvis gadawyvetilebaTa uciloblad Sesruleba.
Sobadobis waxalisebis mniSvnelovani instrumenti SeiZleba
gaxdes sayofacxovrebo momsaxurebis qselis yovelmxrivi
ganviTareba (magaliTad, samrecxaoebis, produqtebis saxlSi
mitanis), maTi muSaobis xarisxis gaumjobeseba, saimedo da
xelmisawvdomi sayofacxovrebo teqnikis gamoSvebis gafarToeba
(sarecxi manqanebis, samzareulo kombainebisa da sxva), romlebic
amsubuqebs saojaxo Sromas.
aucilebelia xazi gavusvaT, rom ekonomikuri RonisZiebebi
xels unda uwyobdes ojaxebis sam bavSvze orientirebas.
SeRavaTebiT pirvel rigSi, swored samSviliani ojaxebi unda
sargeblobdnen.

73
1982 wlis 1 ianvris monacemebiT mudmiv sabavSvo skolamdel dawesebulebebSi dadioda
15,1 mln. bavSvi (Народное хозяйство в 1982 г., с. 415), magram 1983 wlis 1 ianvrisaTvis bavSvebis
sabavSvo baRSi an bagaSi mowyobis Taobaze daukmayofilebeli iyo 2 mln. gancxadeba
(Советская Россия, 1983, 22 июля).

180
 migraciis waxalisebis ekonomikuri RonisZiebebi gulisxmobs
migraciis upirates raionebSi cxovrebis ufro xelsayreli
pirobebis Seqmnas, rac moicavs ara marto xelfasis momatebas,
aramed momsaxurebis sferos ufro intensiur ganviTarebas,
komfortuli sacxovrebliT uzrunvelyofis maRal dones. sskp-
is XXIV yrilobaze miRebulma farTo programam, romelic
iTvaliswinebda CrdiloeTSi momuSaveTaTvis SeRavaTebis
gazrdas, didad Seuwyo xeli migraciuli nakadebis
racionalizacias, mosaxleobis CrdiloeTSi da Soreul
aRmosavleTSi damagrebas, riTac praqtikulad daamtkica
sazogadoebis mier migraciul procesebze efeqturi zemoqmedebis
SesaZlebloba.
demografiuli politikis administraciul-samarTlebriv
RonisZiebebs umTavresad miekuTvneba sxvadasxva sakanonmdeblo
aqtebi. aseTi SeiZleba iyos, magaliTad, dadgenileba, romelsac
Semoaqvs samedicino dawesebulebebSi abortebis sruli an
nawilobrivi akrZalva, aqtebi, romlebic maRla an dabla swevs
kanoniT gaTvaliswinebul qorwinebis registraciis minimalur
asaks, zRudavs an axalisebs migracias qveynis ama Tu im nawilSi.
demografiuli politikis administraciul-iuridiuli
RonisZiebebi, ra Tqma unda, mxolod amkrZalavi sistemebiT ar
Semoifargleba. magaliTad, SeiZleba davasaxeloT qorwinebisa
da ojaxis Sesaxeb kanonis cvlileba, ojaxis daSlisas dedisa
da bavSvis qonebrivi uflebebis gafarToeba da sxv.. iuridiuli
xasiaTis RonisZiebebs SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT garkveuli
SeRavaTebi fexmZime bavSviani qalebis samuSaoze miRebisa da
samuSaodan daTxovnisas, mravalSviliani ojaxebisaTvis

181
dasasvenebel adgilebSi sagzurebis miRebisas, agreTve pensiebis
daniSvnisas.
administraciul-iuridiuli xasiaTis RonisZiebebma Sedegi
mxolod demografiuli politikis sxva RonisZiebebTan
kompleqsSi, xelsayreli saerTo socialur-ekonomikuri
situaciis fonze SeiZleba mogvces. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi isini
araefeqturi iqneba.
aRmzrdelobiTi xasiaTis RonisZiebebs miakuTvneben Cvens
qveyanaSi dedobisa da mamobis, ojaxSi sazogadoebisaTvis
sasurvel bavSvTa ricxvisa da a.S., sapatioobisa da
mniSvnelobis propagandas. migraciis sferoSi esaa axali
teritoriis aTvisebis aucileblobis axsna-ganmarteba. amaSi did
rols TamaSobs axalgazrduli mowodebebi, magaliTad, yamiris
aTviseba an bamis74 aSeneba.
mosaxleobis `demografiuli aRzrda~ SeiZleba
sxvadasxvagvarad warimarTos. misi erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi
elementia ojaxSi aRzrda, sadac ZiriTadad yalibdeba mozardi
Taobis cxovrebiseul faseulobaTa sistema. meore mimarTulebaa
_ demografiuli qcevis gansazRvruli tipis propagandis mizniT,
informaciis masobriv saSualebaTa (kino, radio, beWvdiTi sityva,
televizia) gamoyeneba.
gansakuTrebiT unda gamovyoT sazogadoebis mier
demografiuli struqturebis ganviTarebaze gegmazomierad
zemoqmedebis sakiTxebi. ganaTlebis sistemis meSveobiT
socialisturi sazogadoeba aqtiurad da gegmazomierad
zemoqmedebs mosaxleobis ganaTlebisa da profesiul
struqturaze. migraciuli procesebis marTvis meSveobiT

74
bami _ baikal-amuris magistrali (mTargmnelis SeniSvna).

182
SeiZleba mizanmimarTulad vimoqmedoT qveynis teritoriis
mixedviT, qalaqsa da sofels Soris mosaxleobis gansaxlebaze,
agreTve calkeuli regionebis mosaxleobis sqesobriv-asakobrivi
struqturis formirebaze.
mniSvnelovan amocanas warmoadgens demografiuli politikis
efeqturobis Sefaseba. masSi SeiZleba vigulisxmoT istoriulad
mokle droSi da umciresi danaxarjebiT mosaxleobis
kvlavwarmoebis optimaluri tipis Camoyalibeba. demografiuli
politikis efeqturobis gansazRvris arsebiTi siZnele imaSi
mdgomareobs, rom ukiduresad rTulia demografiul procesTa
intensivobis im cvlilebaTa gamoyofa, rac swored gatarebuli
politikis zemoqmedebiT aris gamowveuli.
ukansaknel wlebSi Cveni qveynis rig raionebSi iwyeba
demografiuli politikis regionuli programebis, rogorc
saerTo sakavSiro programis danamatis damuSaveba da cxovrebaSi
gatareba, romlebic qveynis am nawilis specifikur pirobebs
iTvaliswinebs. ase magaliTad, 1977 wels miRebul iqna skkp-is
moskovis saqalaqo komitetisa da moskovis saqalaqo sabWos
dadgenileba, moskovSi demografiuli situaciis gaumjobesebis
Sesaxeb, romlebsac 1982-1983 wlebSi mTeli rigi RonisZiebebi
daemata. masSi gaTvaliswinebuli iyo or, sam da met bavSviani
ojaxebisaTvis wamaxalisebel RonisZiebaTa farTo kompleqsi,
maT Soris urigo sacxovrebeli farTis gacemac. dasaxuli iyo
agreTve mosaxleobis, gansakuTrebiT ki qalebisa da bavSvebis,
samedicino momsaxurebis sistemis gaumjobesebis rigi
RonisZiebebic. moskovSi Seiqmna `ojaxis samsaxuri~ (kerZod,
moskovis saqalaqo sabWosTan muSaobs ojaxisa da qorwinebis
ganyofileba), romelic mowodebulia daamuSaos da

183
ganaxorcielos, ojaxis formirebasa da ganviTarebaze ufro
aqtiurad zemoqmedebis, qalaqSi qorwinebis ganmtkicebisa da
ganqorwinebaTa Semcirebis RonisZiebaTa, farTo kompleqsi. aseTi
saxis regionuli programebi ukve ramdenime weliwadia sakmaod
efeqturad moqmedebs latviis ssr-sa da baSkireTis assr-Si,
muSavdeba qveynis rig sxva respublikebSic.
dasasruls aRvniSnavT, rom Cvens qveyanaSi
xalxTmosaxleobis problemis gadawyveta mTeli xalxis saqme
unda gaxdes, iyos mecnierebisa da farTo sazogadoebis
yuradRebis centrSi.

***

Cvens droSi sabWoTa demografia, warsuli CamorCenis

dasaZlevad viTardeba siganeSic da siRrmeSic. aqtiurad
tardeba demografiuli gamokvlevebi, rogorc samecniero, ise
saxelmwifo organizaciebis mier. ssrk-is sagegmo komitetSi am
samuSaos atarebs socialuri ganviTarebisa da
xalxTmosaxleobis krebsiTi ganyofileba, am mxriv bevrs akeTebs
saxelmwifo statistikis organoebic. qveyanaSi didi moculobis
demografiuli literatura gamoicema. beWvdiTi sityvis
furclebze farTod ganixileba xalxTmosaxleobis ganviTarebis
problemebi. aqtiurad muSaobs rigi samecniero-kvleviTi
demografiuli centrebi moskovsa da sxva qalaqebSi. moskovis
saxlmwifo universitetSi xdeba mosaxleobis problemebis
specialistTa momzadeba.

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 marTalia demografiuli procesebi imisda miuxedavad
ganviTardeba, Cven mis Sesaxeb bevri viciT Tu cota. magram
`demografiuli uvicobisagan~ danakargebi SeiZleba
mniSvnelovani iyos, gansakuTrebiT ki Cveni sazogadoebis
grZelvadian socialur-ekonomikur dagegmvaze gadasvlisas.
Cvens droSi xalxTmosaxleobis problemis Seswavla, misi
ganviTarebis ZiriTadi kanonzomierebebis gageba, mniSvnelovan
wanamZRvars warmoadgens efeqturi socialur-ekonomikuri
dagegmvisaTvis, qveyanaSi moqmedi efeqturi politikis
RonisZiebaTaAwarmatebiT gatarebisaTvis. amisken umiznebs,
sabWoTa mecnierebs partiisa da saxelmwifos, agreTve saxalxo
meurneobrivi praqtikis moTxovnebi.

185
 rekomendebuli literatura

a. cnobarebi da saxelmZRvaneloebi
1. Курс демографии /Под ред. А.Я. Боярского. М., 1985.
2. Основы демографии /Под ред. А.Я. Боярского. М., 1980.
3. Народонаселение стран мира. Справочник /Под ред. Б.Ц. Урланиса и
В.А. Борисова. 3-е изд. М., 1984.
4. Народонаселение СССР. Справочник /Под ред. Л.М. Володарского. М.,
1983.
5. Численность и состав населения СССР. По данным Всесоюзной
переписи населения 1979 года. М., 1984.

b. krebulebi da monografiebi
1. Араб-Оглы Э.А. Демографические и экологические прогнозы. М., 1978.
2. Брачность, рождаемость, смертность в России и в СССР /Под ред. А.Г.
Вышневского. М., 1977.
3. Воспроизводство населения СССР /Под ред. А.Г. Вышневского и А.Г.
Волкова. М., 1983.
4. Кваша А.Я. Демографическая политика в СССР. М., 1981.
5. Козлов В.И. Национальности СССР. 2-е изд. М., 1982.
6. Основы управления развитием народонаселения /Под ред. Н.В. Зверевой.
М., 1982.
7. Особенности демографического развития в СССР /Под ред. Р.С. Ротовой.
М., 1982.
8. Система знаний о народонаселении /Под ред. Д.И. Валентея. М., 1976.
9. Урланис Б.Ц. Эволюция продолжительности жизни. М., 1978.
10.Шелестов Д.К. Демография: история и современность. М., 1983.
11.Брошюры серии «Народонаселение» и «Популярная демография».

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 s a r C e v i

winasityvaoba-------------------------------------------------------------------------------3
Tavi I. demografia da Tanamedroveoba--------------------------------------6
Tavi II. demografiuli analizis Sesaxeb---------------------------------20
demografiuli koeficientebi---------------------------------------25
mosaxleobis kvlavwarmoebis maCveneblebi
da demografiuli cxrilebi--------------------------------------41A
demografiuli procesebis Seswavlis
sociologiuri meTodebi-----------------------------------------------66
demografiuli informaciis wyaroebi--------------------------73
Tavi III. demografiuli prognozirebis Sesaxeb-----------------------83
Tavi IV. ssrk-is mosaxleoba guSin, dRes, xval----------------------113
Cveni qveynis mosaxleoba warsulSi---------------------------113
qveynis mosaxleoba oqtombris Semdeg-----------------------126
ssrk-is mosaxleobis ganviTarebis xangrZlivi
tendenciebi da maTi Sedegebi-------------------------------------155
TaviV. ra aris demografiuli politika?--------------------------------170
rekomendebuli literatura------------------------------------------------------186

187