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4 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 29
APPENDIX A: PV Module Data Sheets 30
APPENDIX B: Inverter Datasheet 34
APPENDIX C: tracker datasheet 35
DNV GL has been contracted by Trina Solar (“the Customer”) to undertake a Levelized Cost of Electricity
Analysis (LCOE analysis) comparision for 3 different types of modules one PV plants with two portrait (2P)
configuration located in United States of America (USA) and in Spain. The aim of the study is comparing
the LCOE analysis for the PV plants with three different bifacial modules: 450W, 535W and 545W.
Therefore, a total of three energy production assessments have been performed to support the yield
inputs to the financial model.
The location of the projects have been proposed by DNV GL and accepted by the Customer. Hereinafter
are presented the coordinates of the Projects.
Datasheets of modules, inverter and tracker have been provided for this study. No layouts have been
provided at this stage of project. The design is not intended to be optimized for the site locations.
Figure 1-1 shows the studied location of the Project in USA and Spain.
This Section presents the main findings of the work, with a focus on the results of the energy
assessment, in order to support the LCOE and BOS comparision.
DNV GL has performed an energy yield assessment for the configurations discussed and approved by the
Customer. DNV GL has used an independent methodology for the losses assumptions as described in
Section 0.
DNV GL highlights that the results of the simulation shall not be considered as final estimates of the
expected PV plant energy production. When the final layout is defined, the energy assessment results
shall be reviewed and updated accordingly. The following results are based on PAN file provided by
customer.
(m)
3.37 3.60 3.81
Row spacing (m) 13.10 14.00 14.82
Tracking Range ± 60°
Number of trackers 2,263 1,902 1,920
Backtracking Yes
PV modules TSM-450DEG17MC 535 182-Module TSM-545DEG19C
Modules
capacity
Number of LV/MV
transformers 44 x 2.5MW / 1 x 1.5MW
Transformer MV/HV
capacity 60 MW
Number of MV/HV
transformers
2
Modules per string 27 27 35
Total number of
strings 9,050 7,607 5,760
Total rated power
PDC (kWp) 109,958 109,883 109,872
power
Total
The representative dataset for the Project for the period of data available is shown in Table 2-2 and
Table 2-3 as monthly averages of irradiation and monthly averages of ambient temperature. This data
has not been calibrated with ground measurements. DNV GL recommends calibrating satellite data with
good quality ground measurements (according to IEC 61724-1).
Table 2-2 Monthly means of GHI, DHI and temperature datasets used for the plant in USA
GHI [kWh/m2] DHI [kWh/m2]
T [°C]
monthly monthly
Source Satellite derived /4/ Satellite derived /4/ Satellite derived /4/
Period 1999 – 2018 1999 – 2018 1999 – 2018
Jan 96 27 5.4
Feb 108 32 7.5
Mar 156 49 12.8
Apr 183 58 17.6
May 205 70 22.4
Jun 217 68 27.3
Jul 225 62 29.3
Aug 203 59 28.9
Sep 162 51 24.1
Oct 130 39 17.8
Nov 98 27 11.4
Dec 83 26 5.6
Total 1,865 567 17.5
Table 2-3 Monthly means of GHI, DHI and temperature datasets used for the plant in Spain
GHI [kWh/m2] DHI [kWh/m2]
T [°C]
monthly monthly
Source Satellite derived /4/ Satellite derived /4/ Satellite derived /4/
Period 1994 – 2019 1994 – 2019 1994 – 2019
Jan 80 29 10.7
Feb 99 36 12.1
Mar 148 52 14.9
Apr 176 62 17.1
May 213 72 20.8
Jun 234 69 25.2
Jul 245 64 27.5
Aug 218 62 27.7
Sep 164 54 24.3
Oct 122 45 20.2
Nov 85 31 14.5
Dec 71 26 11.6
Total 1,856 603 18.9
Figure 2-1 shows the sun path for the whole year at the site location. No horizon line has been observed
for the site in USA as per assessment provided by Meteonorm software which calculates it using a digital
Spain USA
Figure 2-1 Solar path diagram for a central point for the PV Plant in USA & Spain
For the simulation, the monthly meteorological data are processed to generate a synthesized year of
hourly data. The global incident irradiation on the collecting plane is then calculated via transposition
using the Pérez model /1/.
1) The solar climatic conditions - mainly the global and diffuse irradiation on the horizontal plane -
are determined.
2) Irradiation on a tilted plane can be calculated using the known global and diffuse irradiation on
the horizontal plane. Transposition is the calculation of incident irradiance on a tilted plane, using
horizontal irradiance data. Transposition is typically calculated using either the Hay model or the
Perez model. For this study, DNV GL has used the Perez model. The transposition is separately
calculated for each irradiance component: beam and diffuse. The reflected component is
evaluated as a given fraction (the “albedo coefficient”) of the global irradiance, weighted by the
angle between the horizontal and the PV plane. DNV GL has assumed a generic albedo coefficient
of 0.2 for the Project, on account of the open field installation typology. However, it is strongly
recommended a proper albedo measurement on site to get bankable results. DNV GL experience
on the albedo is that every 1% of albedo difference can have an impact of 0.25% in energy.
3) Both irradiation losses (due to optical effects and to usable irradiation) can be calculated by the
dimensions and geometrical arrangement of the modules, orientation and distance between rows,
etc.
4) The electrical simulation takes into account the properties of the PV modules (output power,
partial shading effects, temperature behavior, etc.) and inverters (conversion efficiency, partial
load etc.), along with losses in electrical cabling, in order to calculate the energy delivered at the
output of the inverter.
5) The AC cabling losses between the inverter and the revenue meter are estimated.
6) Finally, other production losses are considered - soiling, power quality, mismatch, availability,
etc.
DNV GL has based the simulation on the “one-diode” model /2/ which has become industry practice. The
“one-diode” model is non-linear and implicit, and the required hourly calculations at the site are
performed with the support of computational software /5/.
a) Shading losses:
Far shading: DNV GL has estimated the line of horizon with Meteonorm /3/.
Near shading: The near shading loss essentially considers the inter-array shading as well as that
from other surrounding elements affecting the PV plant performance. A backtracking strategy
has been applied for the tracker-based system.
b) Soiling losses:
Soiling losses depend strongly on the location of the PV system and on the frequency of cleaning and
raining. These losses are associated either with dirt or pollution, which accumulates on the surface of
modules and may result in PV cells receiving less irradiance. In other cases, there may be non-uniformly
distributed dirt, such as bird droppings; this dirt tends to produce significant partial shading on cells.
DNV GL has performed an independent calculation for soiling based on the historical precipitation in this
site. DNV GL has assumed that the PV modules will be washed 2 times per year, in the months that has
more soiling impact for increasing production. For the U.S.A location it was defined as February and
December.
The reflection effects, or incidence effect (the other typical designated term is IAM, for "Incidence Angle
Modifier"), corresponds to the weakening of irradiation actually reaching the PV cell surface, with respect
to irradiation under normal incidence. In practice this is commonly calculated using the ASHRAE-model,
defined by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE). If
third-party test data is not provided, DNV GL assumes a b0 = 0.05 for most crystalline modules without
anti-reflective coating (ARC) and b0 = 0.04 for most crystalline modules with ARC. The IAM parameter,
b0, is an input into an ASHRAE model equation. The modules for this project have ARC.
The performance characteristics detailed in a module datasheet represent the expected module
performance under standard test conditions. Because a project will not continuously experience STC
irradiation levels (1,000 W/m2), the actual module efficiency will diverge from nameplate-rated efficiency
as the solar irradiation deviates from this level. The irradiance level loss represents the difference in the
module efficiency at STC and the module efficiency at the modelled solar irradiance within each hour.
This loss is calculated in PVsyst and is dependent upon the technical description of the module.
e) Temperature Losses
Module quality factor (“MQF”) is intended to capture the difference between the nameplate and as-flash-
tested power ratings of the PV modules. DNV GL also incorporates imperfect Maximum Peak Power
Tracking (“MPPT”) and PV module modelling adjustment losses into the MQF, as discussed below. DNV
GL recommends requesting flash test data, when available, to verify the overall average power rating of
the modules shipped and to adjust the MQF, if necessary. These are described next:
Module nameplate adjustment. To account for the actual module power ratings relative to the
nameplate rating;
Losses due to imperfect inverter MPPT; this is preliminary estimated to be 0.5%. DNV GL
recommends verifying this value with the final inverter manufacturer; and
Model adjustment factor. Accounting for any minor differences between the module’s nameplate
power rating and the modelled power rating in the simulation software.
Light-induced degradation (LID) corresponds to an attenuation of the power of the module (with
crystalline silicon technology) once it is exposed to the actual operating conditions. This factor is typically
verified through an independent measurement performed for the proposed module model for the project.
When available, independently measured data provided by a manufacturer or testing agency is used to
determine the LID for a crystalline module. Trina provided their LID guidance of 1.5% with third party
test report as supporting documents. Therefore, DNV GL applies a 1.5% LID loss across these five
modules.
Mismatch losses occur when the actual modules in an array do not have exactly the same current-
voltage characteristics. The mismatch loss is dependent upon the standard deviations of the short-circuit
current (ISC) and open-circuit voltage (VOC), the distribution type (i.e. normal or square), and
precipitation levels.
Because the lowest current in a string will drive the current for the entire string in a series connection,
the array mismatch loss can be minimized by using only modules of the same type and with very similar
currents. DNV GL typically completes a series of mismatch tests using PVsyst’s “Detailed computation”
mismatch tool. DNV GL can update this loss if module Flash test results are provided.
DC ohmic losses occur when connecting the modules to the input of the inverter(s). As current passes
through a wire, the wire resistance induces a voltage drop and dissipates some power as waste heat.
This loss is dependent upon the conductor material (i.e. aluminium or copper), gauge (i.e. diameter),
and resistive properties; the length of the wire; and the current at the input of the wire. If detailed
wiring schedules are not provided, DNV GL assumes a dc ohmic loss of 0.7% at STC for string inverters
for base case. Because the project will not continuously operate at STC, usually at levels well below STC,
the actual dc ohmic loss may tend to be notably less than the assumed loss at STC. DNV GL has
estimated the DC losses for the other scenarios based on base case result and estimated cable lengths.
j) Inverter losses:
Wiring losses (MV AC network): DNV GL has assumed a figure of 0.7% at STC for base case
scenario. DNV GL has estimated the AC losses for the other two scenarios based on base case
result and estimated cable lengths. Lower losses could be expected with a proper wiring design.
This assumption has to be confirmed when the final electrical calculations are available.
Transformers: There are two losses associated with medium voltage (MV) and high voltage (HV)
transformers: iron (i.e. fixed or core) losses and ohmic (i.e. winding, or variable) losses. Fixed-
load losses continue to draw a load irrespective of whether the array is producing power (e.g. at
night), while the severity of the variable, ohmic loss is dependent upon the resistive properties of
the primary and secondary transformer windings and the current entering the transformer. When
provided, DNV GL calculates the fixed and variable load losses from transformer datasheets. If
datasheets cannot be provided, DNV GL assumes the losses detailed below.
For LV/MV transformers, DNV GL assumes a fixed load loss of 0.2% and a variable load loss 0.9%
at STC. For MV/HV transformers, DNV GL assumes a fixed load loss of 0.1% and a variable load
loss of 0.4% at STC. The HV transformer loss is lower than the MV transformer loss because, in
accordance with Ohm’s Law, resistive power losses are proportional to the square of the current.
For example, a 50% reduction in current will result in 25% of the resistive losses.
DNV GL has assumed that the projects will have LV/MV and MV/HV transformers.
Parasitic losses: a pragmatic value was assumed in the absence of support calculations. The
parasitic losses include tracker consumption, ventilation of inverters, lighting, monitoring system,
etc. DNV GL has been provided with information regarding inverter’s consumption.
l) Availability losses:
No contractual availability figure is yet available. A figure of 0.8% is considered for tracker system with
staffed operation. DNV GL availability estimation can be achieved if efficient O&M organization is
implemented, using a minimum stock of spare parts and locating a maintenance support center at a
reasonable distance to the site. DNV GL recommends that this value is reviewed in conjunction with the
warranted level of availability provided by the O&M contractor.
Grid availability losses: the grid unavailability was considered as zero, in the absence of any specific
information.
All of the loss factors above are calculated to compile the performance ratio.
The PR is calculated during the simulation process, by multiplying the different factors described in
previous section. Given the overall PR factor, the total energy delivered is calculated as follows:
PR(%)G PSTC
E AC INC
100I STC
The yield factor YF is defined as the total energy produced in kWh per kW peak of installed capacity, i.e.
E AC PR(%)GINC
YF
PSTC 100ISTC
In the formulae:
Error! Reference source not found. presents the predicted long-term annual energy production for
the Project, excluding the effects of PV module degradation. The various loss factors described above
are indicated for the whole system in the Project, on an annual basis.
The net energy prediction presented below, represents the long-term mean, 50% exceedance level, for
the annual energy production of the PV plant (P50). This value is the best estimate of the long-term
mean value to be expected from the proposed design. There is therefore a 50% chance that, even taken
over very long periods, the mean energy production will be less than the value given.
plane
Ambient Temperature ºC 19 19 19
Azimuth deg 0 0 0
Tilt angle deg -60 / 60 -60 / 60 -60 / 60
Peak power kWp 109,958 109,883 109,872
Ambient Temperature ºC 19 19 19
Azimuth deg 0 0 0
Tilt angle deg -60 / 60 -60 / 60 -60 / 60
Peak power kWp 109,958 109,883 109,872
DNV GL has conducted an extensive review of PV degradation rates, including the review of hundreds of
papers on this topic (/6/, /7/ and /8/). These papers indicate crystalline PV system annual degradation
rates vary within the interquartile range of 0.4% - 1.1%. Given that the range of this reported rate is of
similar magnitude to the rate itself, it is apparent there is a high level of uncertainty associated with any
degradation assumption. DNV GL current recommendation is using a single-year P50 system-level
degradation rate from the middle of this range: 0.64% per year.
DNV GL recommends running financial model stress tests using several degradation assumptions within
the probability range noted above.
The resulting production figures for the one-year and ten-year periods with the degradation
recommended by DNV GL are presented in Table 2-6 to Table 2-11 together with the Performance Ratio
figures.
DNV GL has evaluated the costs of the two proposed PV plants for the Project, in USA and Spain. Cost
estimation can be performed in several ways and can be very detailed, but for comparison purposes as it
is the scope of this analysis, using simplified data and focusing in core metrics is a reasonable approach.
DNV GL has selected the following key indicators for the analysis:
DNV GL has performed a preliminary analysis of the costs based on the preliminary design, benchmark
from other similar projects and best practice. CAPEX, OPEX and LCOE has been estimated for each
different PV mdoule configuration: 450W, 535W and 545W. Energy results from previous section has
been used for LCOE estimation.
DNV GL presents hereinafter the analysis which is based on the characterization of the plants and the
estimation of the costs. DNV GL has made some assumptions based on previous experience in similar
projects. DNV GL has identified each of the costs that are suitable to be impacted by the use of different
PV module ratings, but it is not the aim of this project to detail all the costs.
DNV GL highlights that the results of the analysis shall not be considered as final estimates of the
expected PV plant economic evaluation. This should be revisited once final design and project specific
economic inputs are available.
3.1 Assumptions
DNV GL has assumed a common Project Finance, EPC and O&M structure based on standard industry for
each of the countries analyzed. The following assumptions are considered:
Discount rate has been estimated for each country but DNV GL recognizes that this is not our
area of expertise.
DNV GL highlights that cost data used in the analysis are part of our benchmark experience and we
consider that reflect reasonable values for both countries considered: USA and Spain. However, DNV GL
DNV GL recommends revisiting each of the assumptions when specific inputs are provided. It should also
be noted that commodity values are volatile and difficult to predict over the study horizon. However,
since the above assumptions have been considered in all the scenarios, the comparison conclusion will
remain valid.
The following characteristics of the projects have been considered for the analysis. These have been
extracted from the design review in Section 2 of the projects.
Table 3-1 Project design results
Item Unit 450W 535W 545W
Vertical roads width m 9
Horizontal roads width m 5
Land occupied ha 186.71 179.82 182.03
Roads surface m2 69,601 66,313 68,177
Perimeter length m 5,560 5,382 5,457
Drainage system length m 23,215 21,984 22,606
DC cabling length m 399,557 341,320 262,841
AC LV cabling length m 224,721 201,252 214,577
AC MV cabling length m 43,258 40,067 41,792
3.3 CAPEX
DNV GL has assumed costs for each of the capital expenses based on the review of other similar
projects. Additionally, DNV GL has been provided with cost for PV module and inverter used in the
Project as follows:
Table 3-2 Customer cost inputs
Item US ($/W) Spain (€/W)
PV module price 0.3200 0.1932
Inverter price 0.0279 0.0257
450W 0.1011 0.0852
Tracker price 535W 0.0899 0.0758
545W 0.0874 0.0737
Based on the review performed in above sections, the following tables show the summary of the Capital
Costs for each scenario of the plants.
Based on the review performed in above sections, the following tables show the summary of the
Operational Costs for each scenario of the plants.
Table 3-5 OPEX results (€) – Spain
3.5 LCOE
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is a common measure that is used to compare different projects and
technologies based on the combination of CAPEX, OPEX, performance and fuel cost. In renewable
technologies usually fuel cost tends to zero compared to technologies. LCOE is usually used because
includes all the costs over lifetime of a project including cost of capital. It is also important to highlight
that using the discounted cash flow method the time value of money is considered. This is based on the
use of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) or also called the discount rate. DNV GL has used
the following formula which is widely accepted and used by organizations as NREL and IRENA.
Figure 3-1 LCOE formula used for the analysis. Source: Renewable Power Generation Costs in
2018, IRENA
Based on the cost results of previous sections and LCOE inputs definitions, the following results have
been estimated:
Table 3-8 LCOE estimation
Item 450Wp 535Wp 545Wp
LCOE Spain (€/kWh) 0.0364 0.0353 0.0352
LCOE 450 as baseline(%) 0.00 -3.01 -3.19
LCOE US ($/kWh) 0.0451 0.0437 0.0434
LCOE 450 as baseline(%) 0.00 -3.28 -3.72
As it can be observed, the use of a bigger PV module has a positive impact in reduction of CAPEX, OPEX
and LCOE due to reduction of equipment, manhours and surface needed, both in Spain and USA
locations.
/1/ R. Perez, P. Ineichen, R. Seals, J. Michalsky, R. Stewart. “Modelling Daylight Availability and
Irradiance Component from Direct and Global Irradiance”, Solar Energy 44, Nº5, pp 271-289,
1990.
/2/ John A. Duffie et W.A. Beckman. “Solar Engineering of Thermal process”. John Wiley and Sons,
N-Y, 2nd Edition, 1991.
/3/ Meteotest, www.meteonorm.com
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