LESSONTWO

SI
NGLEDECREMENTLI
FETABLES
2.
1Int
roduct
ion.

Mul
ti
ple-
Decr
ementLi
feTabl
e
Amult
ipl
e-decr
ementl
i
fetablesummar
izest
heli
feexper
ienceofacohor
tinwhi
ch
membershi
pcanbeter
minatedbytwoormoreat
tri
ti
onfactor
s.
Not
ethatt
hedef
ini
ti
onabov
eincl
udessev
eral
keyt
erms:
Cohor
t
Acohor
tisagr
oupofi
ndi
vi
dual
stowhom acer
tai
nev
entoccur
redatt
hesameper
iod
oft
ime.
Exampl
es:
 Abi
rt
hcohortisagroupofpeopl
ebornatt
hesameti
me(ori
nthesameti
meint
erval
).
 Amarr
iagecohor
tisagroupofpeopl
emarri
edatt
hesameti
me(orint
hesameti
me
i
nter
v al)
.
 Ac ohor tofcontr
aceptiv
euser si
sagr oupofindiv
idual
swhobeganusing
cont
racept i
vesatthesamet ime(orinthesamet imeint
erv
al)
.
At
tri
ti
onFact ors
At t
ri
ti
onf actorsar
eev entsexper
iencedbyindivi
dualsoft
hecohor
tthatmaket
hem no
longerel i
gibl
etobemember softhecohort.
Exampl
es:
 Member
sofabi
rt
hcohor
tloset
hei
rmember
shi
pinacohor
tbydeat
hduet
odi
ff
erent
causes.I
nthi
scase,
theat
tri
ti
onf
act
orsar
ecausesofdeat
h.
 Member
sofamar
ri
agecohor
tloset
hei
rmember
shi
pint
hecohor
tbymar
it
al
disr
upti
onei t
herbysepar at i
on,di
v orce,orthedeathofspouse( widowhood) .I
nt hi
s
example,theattr
iti
onf act orsarethecausesofmar i
taldisruption—namel y ,
separat
ion,div
orce,andwi dowhood.
 Me mbersofacohor tofcont r
aceptorslosetheirmember shipint hecohor tbyst opping
useofthemet hodduet ov ari
ousr easons,forexampl e,accident al
pr egnancy ,
plant o
conceiv
e,ormedi calreasons.I nt hisexampl e,t
heattrit
ionf actorsaret hev ari
ous
reasonsforterminati
ngt heuseoft hecontracepti
ve.
Inansingledecrementlif
et able,member shi pinawel l
-def
inedcohor tcanbet erminatedbya
singl
eattri
ti
onfactor.I
namul tiple-decrementl i
fetable,t
herear emul ti
pler easonsf orattri
ti
on.
Singl
edecr
ementlif
et abl
escanbeusedt oanswerquesti
onsaboutlongevi
ty.Forexample,
theordi
nar
yli
fetabl
ecanbeusedt oanswerthequest
ion,
"Whatistheprobabil
itythata
newbornwil
lsurv
ivetoage65? "ort
hecomplementaryquest
ion,
"Whatisthepr obabil
it
ythat
anewbornwill
diebeforereachi
ngage65?"
Amul t
ipl
e-decr
ementlif
etablewi
llbeusedtoanswerthequestion,"Whatistheprobabi
lit
y
thatanewbornwi l
ldi
eduetoaspecifi
ccausebeforereachingage65? "
Inansi ngl
e
decrementli
fetabl
eofmor t
ali
tyi
tisassumedthateveryoneeventual
lydies.Themulti
ple-

1
decrementli
fetabl
ewil
lprovi
det
heprobabil
i
tythatapersonwi
llev
ent
uall
ydieduet
oa
specif
iccause.I
nthisl
essonwewil
lconcentr
ateonsingl
edecr
ementli
fetabl
esonl
y.
2.
2LessonLear
ningOut
comes.

Byt
heendoft
hel
esson,
youwi
l
lbeabl
eto;

2.
2.1 Def
ineandConst
ructsi
ngl
edecr
ementl
i
fet
abl
es.

2.
2.2 Appl
ythesi
ngl
edecr
ementl
i
fet
abl
est
osol
vedemogr
aphi
cquest
ions.

2.
2.1 .Si
ngl
edecr
ementl
i
fet
abl
es

Wewil
ldi
scusstwotypesofsi ngl
edecr
ementl
i
fet
abl
es;
i
) Complet
elif
et ables
i
i
) Abri
dgedli
fetables

2.
2.1.
1 Compl
etel
i
fet
abl
es

Al i
fet ableisthei nstr
umentusedt odet erminet hechancet hatapersonofagi v
enagewi ll
l
ivef oragi venperiodorwi lldieatacer tai
nage.I tcanal sobeusedt oinv
est i
gatemanymor e
compl icatedproblemsassoci atedwi t
hlivingordy ing.
Int hist ypeofl i
fet ablet heuni tofmeasur ementi say ear.Inmanypr oblem whichthe
demogr apherisaskedt ot ackle, heneedst obeabl etoestimatethenumberofper sonsli
kel
y
tobeal i
vef i
veort eny earsl ater( say)outofani nit
ialgroupofpeopl e.Thenumberof
survivorswillofcour sedependont heageoft hesepeopl e.
Letusassumet hatt hegr oupi nitial
lynumber ed100, 000andwer eofthesameage20i .
ehad
t
h
j
ustat tai
nedt hei
r20 , birt
hday .Ifwesetoutat able, t
henumber sli
kel
yt osur vi
vet oage
21,22,23et cthent hissur vivorshipt ablewoul denabl eust otackleanumberofdemogr aphi
c
problems.Suchasur vi
v orshipt ablei sinf actoneoft hecolumnsofwhati sknownasal if
e
tableoramor tal
it
yt ablewhi chiswi thoutdoubtt hemostusef ulofthedemogr aphictool
s.

DEFI
NATI
ON

Ali
fetabl
ei samat hematicalmodelt hatpor t
raysmor tal
ityconditi
onsatapart
icul
arti
me
amongapopulationandpr ovidesabasi sformeasur inglongev i
ty.
Wit
hacurrentli
fetableonecandet er
mi nesuchf actorsas:The
(i
) pr obabili
tyofdy i
ngwi t
hinoney earofanyper sonateachage.
(i
i) av eragenumberofy ears,anewbor ninfantcanexpectt oli
ve.
(i
ii
) av eragenumberofy earsofliferemai ningtoaper sonsofanyage
(i
v) pr obabili
tyofsurvivi
ngf rom anygi venaget oanyot hergiv
enage.
(v) pr obabili
tyofsurvivi
ngf oranygi vennumberofper sons,atanyage.
(vi
) numberofper sonsatapar ti
cularageabov eorbel owapar ti
cul
arageorbetween

2
 anyt
woagesunderconditionsofast ationarypopul
ati
on(bi
rths=deaths)
Thel i
feTableisbasedonacohor tofsomear bitr
arynumberofbi r
ths(oft
en100,000)
.We
denotethisnumberbyl0,
theRadi
xoft hel
if
et able.Iti
sassumedt hati
nal i
fetable
(i
)Popul ati
oni
sclosed(Netmigrat
ioniszero)
(i
i
)Deat hsandbir
thsareevenl
yspreadovert hey ear.
(i
i
i)Populati
oni
sstati
onary.

NOTATI
ONS

1) =no.ofsur
viv
orst
oexactagex.

2) =no.ofdeat
hbet
weenexactagesxandx+1=

3) =pr
obabi
l
ityofani
ndi
vi
dual
ali
veatagexdy
ingi
ntheagei
nter
val
x x+1

4) =probabi
l
ityofani
ndi
vi
dualal
i
veatagexsur
viv
ingt
oexactagex+1[
LIMI
TSURVI
VAL
RATE]

= =1-

5)Lx=noofpersonsnowali
veandagedbetweenxandx+1exact
ly.
(sur
viv
orsbet
weenages
xandx+1)
=av
eragenumbersofper
sonsi
nthecohort(
x,x+1)or
=(
0r

=av
eragenumberofper
sony
ear
sli
vedbet
weenagesxandx+1

Bet
weenage0and1
per
sonshav
eli
vedoney
eareach
Bet
weenage1and2
per
sonshav
eli
vedoney
eareach
Bet
weenthem
L0per
sonshav
eli
vedL0year
s
L1per
sonshav
eli
vedL1y
ears

3
 L2per
sonshaveli
vedL2years
.
.
.
Lnpersonshav
eli
vedLn year
s

Tot
alnumberofy
ear
sal
i
ve=L0+L1+L2+-
--
--
-Ln

or

=Tot
alno.ofper
sonsal
i
veaf
teragex

i
f =Av
eragenumberofper
sonsal
i
vebet
weenagexandx+1 t
hen

Txi
sthet
otal
numberofper
sonsagedxandov
eri
nast
ati
oner
ypopul
ati
on

6) =l
i
fe-
tabl
eage-
speci
fi
cdeat
hrat
eforage-
int
erv
al

= [
CENTRALDEATHRATE]

7) =Expect
ati
onofl
i
featageXorav
eragenumberofy
ear
,li
vedaf
teragexby
t
hoseal
i
veatagex
=

Thi
siscal
l
edt
hecompl
eteexpect
ati
onofl
i
fe.Whathappenswhenx=0?

4
11) =Sur
viv
orshi
prat
iof
rom agegr
oupxx+1t
oequi
val
entagem y
ear
slat
erf
or
cohor
t
=

Const
ruct
ingal
i
feTabl
e:

Withshor tli
vedanimalpopulati
on,t
henumberofsur vi
vorsaftervari
ousinter
valsoft i
mecan
be obser ved exper
imentall
y and from thi
s survi
vorshi
pt ableaf ullli
fet able can be
constructed.Suchanappr oachisnotpossiblewithhumanl ives.Heretheonl yinformati
on
whichi savail
abletous aboutmor t
alit
yisthecentr
aldeathrat e(CDR)mx,From t hi
swear e
abletoder ivetheproporti
onofpeopl eofagi venagewhodi ewi t
hinoney ear,therateof
mor t
alit
yqx
Procedure:
1.Calculatet heageatdeat hforeachindiv
idual.Normall
yt hecentraldeathr atecanbe
obtai
nedf r
om hospit
alrecordsandtheref
oretheprobabil
i
tyofdy i
ngcanbecal culat
edusing

theformulae
2.Placeindividual sint
o1- yearagecat egor i
es(separ at etablesformal esandf emales).
Thef i
rstcategor yshoul dbe0- 1andsoon.
3.Determinet henumberofdeat hsineachagecat egor y.
4.Determi nel x–t hepropor t
ional i
veatt hest artofagei ntervalx.Thef irstsel ect
edagei s
usuall
y0si ncewewantt oconsi derthepopul ati
onf orthewhol elif
ef rom bi rt
ht odeath.At
agezer owecal lthistheRadi xoft helif
et ableandweassumei t.UsuallytheRadi xchosenis
100,000per sons
5.Calculatedxf oreachagecat egory.dx=l x–l x+1
6.Calculateqxf oreachagecat egoryqx=dx/l x
7.Youar enowr eadyt ocalcul at
et heexpect at
ionf orf urt
herl i
fe.Inor dertodot hi
sy ou
mustf ir
stconst ructacol umncal l
edTx, thesum ofal l t
hel x’
supt ot hatage
category.So, Tx( 0-1)wouldbet hetotaloftheent i
r el xcolumn.Tx+1=Tx- lx.
8.Youcannowcal culateexpect ati
onforf utur
elifef oreachagecat egoryasf oll
ows,
ex=Tx/l x
9.Notet hatexi sexpr essedi nthenumberofagecat egoriesofaddi ti
onal l
ifeexpect ed

Exampl
e2.
1
Age(x) qx lx dx px
0 0.
02239 100,
000

5
1 0.
00181
2 0.
00120
3 0.
00090
4 0.
00060
5 0.
00580
Compl
etet
hel
i
fet
ableabov
e.

Sol
uti
on.

Age(
x) qx lx dx px
0 0.
02239 100,000 2239 .97761
1 0.00181 97,761 177 .99819
2 0.00120 97,584 117 .99880
3 0.00090 97,467 88 .
99910
4 0.00060 97,379 64 .
99934
5 0.00580 97,315 56 .
99942

.
.
GRAPHOFPROBABI
LITYOFDYI
NG(CHANCEOFDEATH)ANDAGE
.

Fr
om t
hegr
aphof r
ateofmor
tal
i
ty,
(i
nfantmor
tal
i
ty(
0-1)y
ear
,f
all
srapi
dlyt
oami
nimum at
aboutage10,t
henstar
trisingsteadi
l
yt oaboutage19,(acci
dentmort
ali
ty)thenfal
lst
oa
mini
mum age26(ast
heaccidentagepasses)t
henincr
easesmor est
eepl
ythroughli
fe.

6
Useof and col
umns
Weshal lnow seehow t he and col umnscanbeusedt oanswerquest i
onsont he
proporti
onofper sonssurv
ivingfrom oneagetoahigherage,theproport
iondy i
ngbeforea
parti
cularageoratapar t
icularage,thepropor
ti
ondy i
ngbet weent wo agesandot her
questi
onsi nvolvi
ngpropor
tionsandnumber sofpersonsli
v i
ngordy i
ng.Unl essotherwise
specif
iedt hel i
fetabl
esusedi nthefol
lowi
ngprobl
emsar ethe and tablesgi
veni n
theAppendi x.

Exampl
e2.
2

Whati
sthepr
opor
ti
onofmenaged31expect
edt
oli
vet
oage35?

Sol
uti
on
Outof or94,577menali
veatage31, or93, 931ar
eexpect
edt
obeal
i
veatage35.
hencet
hepr
opor
ti
onofmensur
viv
ingf
rom age31t
oage35is

Notethatthissamequest ioncouldbeaskedi nadi f

ferentway ,namely‘whatpr oporti
onof
menages31ar eexpect
edt odieaf t
erage35?
Itshoul
dal sobenot edt hatsomet i
mest hequest i
onaskedr equiresanest i
mat eofthe
numberofsur v
ivorsourofagr oupofper sonsratherthanthepr obabil
it
yofsurviving.Inthi
s
casethenumberofper sonsint heinit
ialgroupmustbemul ti
pli
esbyt heproport
ionsur vi
vi
ng
toobtai
nthenumberofsur vi
vor s.Forexampl e,theexpect ednumberofsur v
ivorsf r
om age
31toage35ourofanor i
ginalgroupof2, 000mal esallaged31exact lyis

Exampl
e2.
3

Whatpr
opor
ti
onofmal
esnowaged32wi
l
ldi
ewhi
l
eaged34l
astbi
rt
hday
?

Sol
uti
on
Fr
om t
hel
i
fet
abl
ether
ewer
e =94,
425mal
esal
i
veatage32and =172mal
esdy
ing

7
bet
weenages34and35.Hencet
hepr
opor
ti
onofmal
esaged32expect
edt
odi
ewhi
l
staged
34lastbi
rt
hdayi
s

Exampl
e2.
4

Whatistheav
eragenumberofmal
eswhomi
ghtbeexpect
edt
odi
ebet
weenages31and35
outof3,
000malesnowaged30?

Sol
uti
on
Fr
om t
hel
i
fet
abl
ether
ewer
e mal
esal
i
veatage30, al
i
veatage31
and al
i
ve atage 35. The numberdy
ing bet
ween ages 31 and 35 i
s
Thi
scanbeobt
ainedmor
esi
mpl
y
fr
om Ifther
ewere94,726malesal
iv
eaged30,then646
wouldbeexpect
edtodiebetweenages31and35.Butinthispr
obl
em t
herewer
e3000males
aged30,sothenumberexpect
edtodiebetweenages31and35is

Exampl
e2.
5

Whati
sthechancet
hataf
emal
eaged31andamal
eaged33wi
l
lbot
hdi
ewi
thi
n20y
ear
s?

Sol
uti
on

Thechancet
hatt
hef
emal
eaged31wi
l
ldi
ewi
thi
n20y
easi
s t
hev
aluesbei
ng

t
akenf
rom t
he t
abl
e.

Thechancet
hatt
hemal
eaged33wi
l
ldi
ewi
thi
n20y
ear
sis t
hev
aluesbei
ngt
aken

f
rom t
he t
abl
e.

Thechancet
hatbot
hwi
l
ldi
ewi
thi
n20y
ear
sis

8
 x =

orabout1i
n260.

Exampl
e2.
6

Whati
sthechancethatamalechil
djustbor
ntoamotheraged31andaf
atheraged33wi
l
l
beal
iv
e20yearslat
erbutor
phanedbybothofhi
spar
ents?

Sol
uti
on
Thechancet
hatt
hebabywi
l
lsur
viv
e20y
ear
s

Thechancet
hatbot
hpar
ent
swi
l
ldi
ewi
thi
n20y
ear
s

=.
00384(
from t
hepr
evi
ouspr
obl
em)

Hencet
hechancet
hatt
hebabywi
l
lbeal
i
vei
n20y
ear
sbutor
phanedbybot
hpar
ent
s

=0.
96215x0.
00384

=0.
00369

Orabout1i
n271.

Exampl
e2.
7

Fr
om t
hel
i
fet
abl
eof and

a)Cal
cul
atet
hechanceofawomansur
viv
ingf
rom age15t
oage45
b)Cal
cul
ateav
erageageatdeat
hformal
esdy
ingbet
ween40and60y
ear
s.
c)Whati
sthecr
udel
i
fet
abl
edeat
hformal
es?
d)Whatpr
opor
ti
onofagr
oupoff
emal
esaged10–14y
ear
scoul
dexpectt
obeal
i
ve
t
eny
ear
slat
er.
e)Whati
sthepr
obabi
l
ityt
hatal
i
feaged30wi
l
ldi
ebet
weenexactages40and50
y
ears.

9
 SOLUTI
ON

a)Thepr
obabi
l
ityt
hatamal
eaged15wi
l
ldi
ebet
ween40–60.

Pr
obabi
l
ityt
hatamal
ewi
l
lsur
viv
ebet
ween15–40y
ear
s=

Pr
obabi
l
ityt
hathewi
l
ldi
ebet
ween40–60y
ear
s.

Assumingthatt
hemortal
i
typr
ospect
sar
ethesamet
hent
hepr
obabi
l
ityt
hatamal
e
aged15yearswil
ldi
ebet
weenages40–60will
be

= x =0.
128

(
b)Av
erageageatdeat
hofsuchmal
esdy
ingbet
ween40–60

Thenumberofy
ear
s per
sonaged40(
56705)l
i
vei
s

- =1375664–429956=945708

Outoft
hese20x =20x35777=715540y
earar
eli
vedbyt
hesewhor
eacht
heage60.

Hencethenumberofy
earsl
iv
edbyt
hosewhoar
eatpr
esentaged40anddi
ebet
ween40–
60year
s.
=945708–715540=230168

Noofper
sonsaged40whodi
ebef
ore60.

=56705–35777
=20928

Hencet
heav
eragenoofy
ear
sli
vedbyt
heseper
sons

Bet
ween40and60= =10.
998=11

10
Hencet
heageatdeat
hofaper
sonnowaged

40dy
ingbet
ween40and60i
s=40+11
=51year
s.

c)Assumi
ngt
hedeat
har
euni
for
mlydi
str
ibut
edi
ntheagei
nter
val

Thent
hepr
obabi
l
ityofdy
ingbef
oreage5

noofsur
viv
orsoutof338,
558f
emal
ebi
rt
hs.

= =260,
713

d)Acoupl
ebothaged25havemaletwi
ns.Whati
sthepr
obabi
l
ityt
hatonepar
entorbot
h
wi
ll
diebef
oreei
theroft
hesonsi
nthenextt
enyear
s.

LettheAbetheev
entt
hatthemandiebef
orethenextt
eny
ear
sandl
etBbet
he
eventt
hatt
hewomanwi
lldi
ebef
oret
henexttenyear
s.

Pr
obabi
l
ityt
hatei
therorbot
hpar
ent
sdi
ebef
oret
henextt
heny
ear
s.

P(
AUB)=P(A)+P( B)-
P(A)P(
B)Assumingthatbot
htheev
ent
sar
eindependent
P(AnB)=P(A)P(B)
Managed25wi
ll
diebefor
e35.

P(
A)= =1- =1–0.
908=0.
092

P(
B)= =1- =1–0.
9168=0.
083

P(
AUB)=P(
A)+P(
B)-P(
A)P(
B)=0.
167

Let and bet

heev
entt
hatt
hesonswi
l
ldi
ebef
oret
he10y
ear
s.
then

11
 P( =1-

P( =2(
1 -(
1 =0.
474

Pr
obabi
l
ityt
hatoneorbot
hwi
l
ldi
ebef
oreei
thert
hei
rsonsi
nthenext10y
ear
.

=0.
474x0.
167

=0.
079

Exampl
e2.
8

Usi
ngt
hel
i
fe-
tabl
esgi
venbel
ow t
abl
e2.
1andt
abl
e2.
2

a)Fi
llint
hegaps.
b)Calcul
atet
hechanceofawomansur vi
vi
ngfrom age15toage45.
c)Calcul
atet
heav er
ageageatdeat
hf ormalesdyi
ngbetween40and60.
d)Whatisthecrude-
tabl
edeat
hrateformales?
e)Whatproport
ionofagroupoffemalesaged10–14coul dexpectt
obeal
i
vet
eny
ear
s
l
ater?

TABLE2.
1
-
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--

0 0.176589 100000 0.199680 0. 3451 0. 200085

1 0.095046 82341 7826 307545 0. 025447 0.025497 0.0254497
Table2 5 0. 26729 74515 1992 367596 0. 005418 2.5000 3718609 49. 904 0. 005491
Maleli
fe10 0.019711 72523 1430 359044 0. 003981 2.5009 3351013 46. 206 0. 003980
Table 15 0. 028098 71094 1998 350749 2. 991970 2991970 42. 085
20 0.039718 69096 2744 338807 2.5682 2641221 38. 225 0. 008087
25 0.043638 2895 324611 2.5312 2302414 34. 700 0. 008907
30 0.050079 63456 3178 309478 0.010268 2.5444 1977804 31. 168 0. 010256
35 0.059282 60279 3573 292661 0.012210 2.5565 1668325 27. 677 0. 012195
40 0.073137 56705 4147 273392 0.015170 2.5566 1375664 24. 260 0. 015136
45 0.089425 52558 4700 0.018699 2.5659 1102272 20. 973 0. 018655
50 47858 5635 225567 0.024900 2.5646 850923 17. 780 0. 024874
55 42223 6446 195400 0.032990 2.5619 625356 14. 811 0. 032905
60 0.
211066 35777 7551 160345 0.047094 2.5448 429956 12. 018 0. 046990
65 0.
285906 28226 8070 121020 0.066682 2.5082 269611 9. 552 0. 066531
70 0.
390500 20156 7871 80767 0.097451 2.4574 148590 7. 372 0. 097216
75 0.
525958 12285 6461 44468 0.145306 2.3756 67824 5.521 0. 144922
80 0.
688975 5824 4012 18118 0.221449 2.2586 23356 4.011 0. 220726
85+ 1.
000000 1811 1811 5238 0.345824 2.8916 5238 2.892 0. 343591

TABLE2.2

-
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--

12
 x

0 0.
149948 100000 14995 90468 0.
165747 4413308 44.
133 0.
166177
1 0.
94095 85005 7999 318000 0.
025153 1.
2467 4322839 50.
854 0.
025208
Tabl
e3 5 0.
027503 77007 2118 379738 0.
005577 2.
5000 4004839 52.
006 0.
005642
Femal
e 10 0.
021743 74889 1628 0.
004396 2.
5034 3625101 48.
407 0.
004395
Li
fe 15 0.
299274 73260 2145 381153 0.
005938 2.
5989 3254722 44.
427 0.
005930
Tabl
e 20 0.
037216 71116 2647 349115 0.
007581 2.
5578 2893570 40.
688 0.
007568
25 0.
042055 68469 335245 0.
008589 2.
5341 2544455 37.
162 0.
008572
30 0.
047540 65590 320243 0.
009737 2209209 33.
682 0.
009726
35 0.
053022 62472 3312 304153 0.
010891 2.
5231 1888966 30.
237 0.
010879
40 0.
058905 59159 3485 287176 0.
012135 2.
5263 1584812 26.
789 0.
012113
45 0.
067393 55674 3752 269233 0.
013936 2.
5643 1297637 23.
308 0.
013902
50 0.
089431 51922 4643 248380 0.
018695 2.
5811 1028403 19.
809 0.
018599
55 0.
117598 47279 5560 223016 0.
024930 2.
5938 780023 16.
498 0.
024830
60 0.
171275 41719 7145 191287 0.
37354 2.
5778 557007 13.
351 0.
037275
65 0.
238011 8229 152695 0.
053891 2.
5486 365720 10.
578 0.
053771
70 0.
344072 109067 0.
083109 2.
5005 213025 8.
086 0.
082916
75 0.
477467 17280 6251 65118 0.
126704 2.
4205 103958 6.
016 0.
126396
80 0.
655076 9029 5915 29290 0.
201947 2.
3191 38840 4.
301 0.
201350
85+ 1.
000000 3114 3114 9550 0.
326131 3.
0663 9550 3.
066 0.
324263

SOLUTI
ON

(
b) =chancef
orawomansur
viv
ingf
rom age15t
oage45= =0.
76

(
c) per
sonaged40(
56705)l
i
ve

- =1375664–429956=945708

Outoft
hese20x =20x35777=715540y
earar
eli
vedbyt
hesewhor
eacht
heage60.

Her
ethenoofyear
sli
vedbythosewhoar
eatpr
esentaged40anddi
ebet
ween40–60y
ear
s.
=945708–715540=230168

Noofper
sonsaged40whodi
ebef
ore60.

= =56705–35777
=20928

Hencet
heav
eragenoofy
ear
sli
vedbyt
heseper
sons

13
Bet
ween40and60= =10.
998=11

Hencet
heageatdeat
hbyt
heper
sonnowaged

40dy i
ngbetween40and60=40+11
=51year
s.
(d) Crudel
i
fetabl
edeathdat
e

=0.
0243

(
e)Pr
opor
ti
onofagr
oupoff
emal
esaged10–14expect
ingt
obeal
i
vet
eny
ear
slat
er

=0.
9426

Exampl
e2.
9

Whataretheexpectedageatdeat
hassumi
ngAm61mor
tal
i
tyoft
hreegr
oupofper
sonsnow
aged20,
40as60r espect
ivel
y

Solut
ion:
Personsnowaged20ont
heav
eragear
eexpect
edt
oli
vef
urhere020y
t ear
sandhence
thei
raverageageatdeat
his

2.
2.1.
2 Abr
idgedLi
feTabl
es

14
Itwil
lbenot edthatthe l
ifetableoccupiestwof ul
lpagesoft hi
sbook.I ttakesupthis
spacebecauset heunitofti
meusedi soney earandthehumanl i
fespanmayext endtoover
100y ear
s.I fwear ecomparinglif
et abl
esf oranumberofcount r
iesi
tislikel
yt hatasmaller
l
ifemaybedesi rable.Forsomecount ri
esdat aareonl
yav ai
lablei
n5orev en10y eargr
oups.
Insuchcaseswhati scal
ledanabr idgedl i
fetabl
eisconstructed.Theprinciplesar ej
ustt
he
sameasf orthecompl et
elif
et abl
ebutt heunitofti
me,insteadofbei ngay ear,maybef or
exampleadecade.

I
fdeat
hsandpopulat
ionhadonlybeenavai
lablefor10y
earagegr
oupstheni
nst
eadof we
woul
dhaveobt
ainedtheprobabi
li
tythatapersonaged xdi
eswit
hin10year
swhichweshal
l

wri
te .
Anabridgedli
fet
abl
eforAustr
ali
anmales(
1960-
62)coul
dbebui
l
tupi
nthesamewayasour
completeli
fet
abl
ewasbuil
t(seeTabl
e3.1)
.

Thesur
viv
orshi
pcol
umn cont
ainsev
ery t
ent
hval
ueshowni
nthe col
umnofa

compl
etel
i
fet
abl
e.Eachent
ryi
nthe col
umni
sthesum oft
hecor
respondi
ngt
env
alues

of i
nthecompl
etel
i
fet
abl
ei.
e.

Thevaluesof and ar
erespect
ivel
ythepr
obabi
l
iti
esofdy
ingwi
thi
nteny
ear
sandof
surv
ivi
ngt eny
ear
s.

Thenumberl
i
vingbet
weenages0and10i
nast
ati
onar
ypopul
ati
on,wr
it
ten ,maybe

obtainedf
rom t
heaverageof and asbef ore,
butweneedt
omul
ti
plyby10t
oaccount
fortheper
sonsateachofthetenyear
lyages.Thus

Theot
herv
aluesof maybeobt
ainedi
nasi
mil
arway
.The col
umni
sobt
ainedby

addi
ngt
he col
umnsuccessi
vel
yfr
om t
hebot
tom oft
het
abl
e.Val
uesof ar
eagai
n

obt
ainedbydi
vi
ding by .

Exampl
e2.
10

Usingthecomplet
etabl
eofAust
r aAm61 conv
al
i erti
ttoanabr
idgedl
i
fet
abl
ewi
thcl
ass
i
nterv
alsoft
en.

Sol
uti
on.

15
Age Age
(x) (x)
0 100,
000 2,
938 0.
02938 0.
97062 985,
310 6,
802,
840 68.
03 0
10 97,062 847 0.
00873 0.
99127 966,
385 5,
817,
530 59.
94 10
20 96,
215 1,
489 0.
01548 0.
98452 954,
705 4,
851,
145 50.
42 20
30 94,
726 1,
869 0.
01971 0.
98029 937,
925 3,
896,
440 41.
13 30
40 92,
859 4,
386 0.
04723 0.
95277 906,
660 2,
958,
515 31.
86 40
50 88,
473 0.
12452 0.
87548 829,
645 2,
051,
855 23.
19 50
11,
017
60 77,
456 0.
29064 0.
70936 662,
000 1,
222,
210 15.
78 60
22,
512
70 54,
944 0.
55102 0.
44898 398,
065 560,
210 10.
20 70
30,
275
80 20,
869 0.
84596 0.
15404 142,
345 162,
145 6.
57 80
24,
669
90 3,
800 3,
720 0.
97895 0.
02105 19,
400 19,
800 5.
21 90
100 80 80 1.
00000 0.
00000 400 400 5.
00 100
110 0 0 1.
00000 0.
00000 0 0 0 110

I
twi
l
lbenot
edt
hatt
hev
aluesof i
nthi
stabl
ear
enott
hesum oft
hecor
respondi
ngt
en

v
aluesi
nthecompl
etel
i
fet
abl
eandt
hev
aluesof i
ntheabr
idgedl
i
fet
abl
ear
enot

i
dent
icalwi
tht
hev
aluesof i
nthecompl
etel
i
fet
abl
e.Thi
sar
isesbecausei
nusi
ngt
he
f
ormula

weareineff
ectassumingthatthedeat
hs areuni
for
mlyspreadovert
he10y earage
gr
oup.Thi
sisofcoursefarf
rom bei
ngcorr
ecti
nt hehi
gheragegr
oupsandproducesabsurd

resul
tsfor att hehigheragesi
nthetabl
e.Al
l
owancecouldeasi
l
ybemadeforthef
actt
hat
deathsarenotunif
ormlyspreadovert
heagegroupbyusi
ngamor ecompl
i
catedfor
mulato

obtain .Ifhowever,wear eonlyconcer nedwi thvaluesinthet abl

eawayf r
om thehigher
agest heerrori
sgenerall
ynegligi
ble.Amuchmor eaccurateresultwouldhavebeenobtained
hadweusedqui nquenni
alagegr oupsbecauset heassumpt i
onofuni for
mityofdeathsi s
mor enearlysati
sfi
edwithquinquennialgroups.I tisnecessarytouseequalagei nt
erv
alsand
i
ti scommont oseeabr i
dgedlifetablespublishedf orages0,1,
5,10,15,
20,
………, i
nwhichcase
youwi llneedtheadditi
onalcolumnshowi ngt hev ari
ousv al
uesof1, 4,
5,
5,5,
…………..andwi l
l

needt
oal
tert
hecol
umnheadi
ngst
o et
c.

16
E-
ti
vi
ty2.
2.2-
Appl
i
cat
ionofsi
ngl
edecr
ementl
i
fet
abl
es.

Number
ing,
paci
ngandsequenci
ng 2.
2.2
Ti
tl
e Appl
i
cat
ionofsi
ngl
edecr
ementl
i
fet
abl
es.

Pur
pose To demonst r
atehow t otackledemogr
aphi
c
questi
onsusingsingl
edecrementli
fet
abl
es.
Br
iefsummar
yofov
eral
ltask Wat chthesevi
deos;
1.ht t
ps://
www.youtube.
com/ wat
ch?v
=W69Y3
SMUoFE

2.ht
tps:
//www.
yout
ube.
com/
wat
ch?
v=x
LcACI
pf
6_s

Spar
k

I
ndi
vi
dual
task I
ndi
vi
dual
cont
ri
but
ion.
1.Fi
llupthemi
ssi
ngent
ri
es(
*)i
nthef
oll
owi
ng
l
if
et abl
e.

Agex
0 100,
000 * 0.
0987 *
1 * * 0.
0447 *
2 * * 0.
0308 *
3 * * 0.
0296 *
4 * * 0.
02186 *
5 * * 0.
01536 *
6 * * 0.
01264 *
7 * * 0.
00993 *
8 * 477 0.
00625 *

17
 Usethelif
et abl
eabov
etoanswerthefol
l
owi
ng
quest
ions;Deter
minet
hepr
obabil
it
ythat

(
i)anewl
ybor
nchi
l
dwi
l
lli
veatl
east5mor
e
y
ear
s.

(
ii
)oft
wochil
drenaged3and5y
ear
soneof
t
hem wi
ll
bedeadwithi
n3year
s.

(
ii
i)oftwochil
drenaged2and3y
ear
snonewi
l
l
beal
iveinfi
veyearsti
me.

2.Acoupl eaged( both)25hav emaletwins.

Whati sthepr obabil
i
tythatoneparentor
bothwilldiebefor
eeitheroft
hesonsinthe
nextt
eny ear
s.Usethelif
etablei
ntabl
e2.2
and2.3.

I
nter
act
ionbegi
ns  Postyouranswer
sondi
scussi
onf
orum
2.
2.2

 Readwhaty
ourcol
l
eagueshav
epost
ed.

 Inasent
enceort wo,commentonwhat
twoofyourcol
leagueshavepost
ed
keepi
ngneti
quetteinmind

E-
moder
atori
nter
vent
ions  Focussinggr oupdiscussi
on
 Encouragingl ur
kers(qui
etones)to
contr
ibute
 Provi
dingf eedback/teachi
ngpoints

 Closi
ngthedi
scussi
on
Schedul
eandt
ime Thi
sacti
vi
tyshoul
dtaket
wohours.
Next Appl
i
cation of l
i
fet
abl
es t
o popul
ati
on
models.

2.
3 AssessmentQuest
ions

18
1.Usi
ngt
heAust
ral
i
ali
fet eAm61andAf61
abl

i
) Whati
sthepr
opor
ti
onofmenaged31expect
edt
oli
vet
oage35

Ans.
0.99317
i
i
) Whatpropor
tionofmal
esnowaged32wi
l
ldi
ewhi
l
eaged34l
astbi
rt
hday
?

Ans:0.
00182
i
i
i) Whati stheav
eragenumberofmal
eswhomi
ghtbeexpect
edt
odi
ebet
weenage
31and35outof3,000mal
esnowaged30?

Ans:
20
(
ii
i)Whati
sthechancethataf
emal
eaged31andaf
emal
eaged33bot
hwi
l
ldi
ewi
thi
n20
y
ears?
ANS:
0.00384

2.Usi
ngthel
if
etabl
eintable2.
1and2.2whichy
ouhavebeengi
venest
imat
ethef
oll
owi
ng
measur
esst
ati
ngclear
lyanyassumpt
iony
ouaremaki
ng.

i
) Thepr
obabi
l
ityt
hatamal
eaged15wi
l
ldi
ebet
weenages40and60

ANS.
0.128
i
i
) Theaver
ageageatdeat
hofsuchmal
es

ANS51years
i
i
i) In1946t her
ewer
e338,558f
emal
ebi
rt
hs.Est
imat
ethenumberofgi
rl
sagedl
ast
bi
rt
hdayon31/12/51

Ans260,
713

3.Whatwil
lbetheaver
ageageatdeat
hoft
hreeper
sonsnow exact
ly40whowi
l
ldi
e
bet
ween40and60?

Ans:
52.
87y
rs

4.Pr
ovet
hat

5.Tabl
e1.
1

19
Br
azi
l1950,
Hypot
het
ical
Dat
a.

AGE POPULATI
ON BI
RTHS DEATHS
Atlast Bot
hsexes Mal
es Femal
es byage bot
hsexes
mal
es Femal
es
Bi
rt
hday number % % ofmot
her

0 1920067 971808 3.
8 948259 3.
6 0 352023
194444 157579
1-4 6469630 3272903 12.6 3196727 12.3 0 164031 83448
80583
5-9 7031293 3568277 13. 8 3463016 13. 3 0 39132 19595 19537
10-
14 6322757 3171305 12. 3 3151452 12.1 0 26475 12623
13852
15-
19 5514730 2650047 10. 2 2864683 11. 0 263711 32029 15042
16987
20-
24 5002404 2389433 9.
2 2612971 10. 0 605931 39099 19324
19775
25-
29 4141580 2034547 7.
9 2107033 8. 1 600470 36182 18121
18061
30-
34 3252348 1625122 6.
3 1627226 6. 2 403749 32493 16667
15826
35-
39 3047847 1527155 5.
9 1520692 5. 8 290489 35167 18623
16544
40-
44 2394029 1230112 4.
8 1163917 4. 5 102250 32718 18619
14099
45-
49 1981130 1020679 3.
9 960451 3. 7 18953 32393 19041
13352
50-
54 1588233 812583 3.
1 775650 3.0 0 34638 20212
14426
55-
59 1068032 550835 2.
1 517197 2.0 0 30971 18125
12846
60-
64 938276 474396 1.
8 463880 1.8 0 39583 22292
17291
65-
69 516456 255926 1.
0 260530 1.0 0 31036 17027
14009
70-
74 361206 165117 0.
6 196089 0.8 32311 16052
16259
75-
79 185199 83155 0.
3 102044 0.4 24949 12051
12898
80-
84 119099 48227 0.2 70872 0.3 1177060M 24915 10645
14270
85+ 90081 33374 0.1 56707 0.
2 1108493F. 29855 11467
18388
Tot
al 51944397 25885001 26059396 228553 1070000 563418
506582
Usi
ngt
het
abl
eabov
e,answert
hef
oll
owi
ngquest
ions;

i
) Const
ructal
i
fet
abl
eforbr
azi
lformenandwomen.

i
i
) Cal
cul
atethechanceofawomansur vi
vingfrom age25toage65.
i
i
i) Cal
cul
atetheaverageageatdeat
hf orfemalesdy i
ngbet
ween20and40.
i
v) Whati
sthecrude-tabl
edeat
hrateforfemales?
v
) Whatproport
ionofagr oupofmal esaged14–19coul dexpectt
obeal
i
ve

20
 t
went
yyear
s?

6.Usingthecomplet
etabl
eofAust
r aAm61 conv
al
i erti
ttoanabr
idgedl
i
fet
abl
ewi
thcl
ass
i
nterval
soften.

7.I
nal
i
fet
abl
e .Showt
hatt
hecent
ral
deat
hrat
ebet
ween0and1i
sequal
tot
he
cr
udedeat
hrat
eatages1andabov
e.

8.I
fani
nfantmor
tal
i
tyr
ateof20pert
housandwasel
i
minat
edi
npopul
ati
onwhose was

70y
ear
s,andal
lot
hermor
tal
i
tycondi
ti
onscont
inuedunchanged,
byhowmuchwoul
d
r
ise?

9.Al
i
fet
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edbyaddi
ng0.
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o atev
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2.
4 Ref
erences.

1.Hinde,A( 1998)Demogr aphicmet hods.Ar nol

d,London.I SBN-13:9780340718926
2.Newel l
,C.(1988).Met hodsandModel sinDemogr aphy.London: Belhaven.I
SBN-
13:9780898624519.
3.Preston,S.H.,Heuvel
ine, P.andGui l
lot,M.(2001).Demogr aphy:Measur i
ngandModel
l
ing
Populati
onPr ocesses.Oxf ord:Blackwell.I
SBN-13:9781557869512.
4.Rowland, D.(2003)Demogr aphicmet hodsandConcept s.Oxford:OUP.ISBN-13:
0340718927

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