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COGNITIVE CAPITALISM

Nations can vary greatly in their wealth, democratic rights and the
wellbeing of their citizens. These gaps are often obvious, and by
studying the flow of immigration one can easily predict people’s
wants and needs. But why are there also large differences in the
level of education indicating disparities in cognitive ability? How are
they related to a country’s economic, political and cultural
development? Researchers in the paradigms of economics,
psychology, sociology, evolution and cultural studies have tried to
find answers for these hotly debated issues. In this book, Heiner
Rindermann establishes a new model: the emergence of a burgher-
civic world, supported by long-term background factors, furthered
education and thinking. It initiated a reciprocal development
changing society and culture, resulting in past and present cognitive
capital and wealth differences. This is an important text for graduate
students and researchers in a wide range of fields, including
economics, psychology, sociology and political science, and those
working on economic growth, human capital formation and cognitive
development.

HEINER RINDERMANN is Professor of Educational and Developmental

Psychology at Chemnitz University of Technology, Germany. He has
published approximately 150 articles and books, and is a fellow of
the Association for Psychological Science (APS). His research focuses
on cognitive human capital from an interdisciplinary perspective,
bringing together ideas on cognitive competence, cognitive
development, productivity, politics and culture on individual and
national levels.
COG NITIV E CAPI TA L I S M
Human Capital and the Wellbeing
of Nations
Heiner Rindermann
Chemnitz University of Technology
 University Printing House, Cambridge CB2 8BS, United Kingdom

One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006, USA

477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia

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pursuit of education, learning, and research at the highest international
levels of excellence.

www.cambridge.org

Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107050167

DOI: 10.1017/9781107279339

© Heiner Rindermann 2018

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the

provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any
part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University
Press.

First published 2018

Printed in the United Kingdom by Clays, St Ives plc

 A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Rindermann, Heiner, 1966– author.

Title: Cognitive capitalism : human capital and the wellbeing of nations /

Heiner Rindermann.

Description: Cambridge, United Kingdom ; New York, NY : University

Printing House, 2018. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2017024439 | ISBN 9781107050167 (hardback) | ISBN

9781107651081 (pbk.)

Subjects: | MESH: Quality of Life | Cognition | Intelligence |

Socioeconomic Factors | Education–economics | Capitalism

Classification: LCC QP363.3 | NLM WA 30 | DDC 612.8/2339–dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017024439

ISBN 978-1-107-05016-7 Hardback

ISBN 978-1-107-65108-1 Paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or

accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in
this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is,
or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
 Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Preface

1 Large Wealth Differences across Time and Nations

1.1 Measures of Production, Income and Wealth
1.2 Some Country Examples
1.3 Problems of Current GDP and GNI Approaches – and
Possible Solutions
1.3.1 Differences between Various Sources of the Same
Indicator
1.3.2 Hardly Believable Large or Small Values
1.3.3 Differences between GDP and GNI: Rich Countries
Transfer Income and Poor Receive
1.3.4 Comparison with ECB and Credit Suisse Indicators
of Wealth (Wealth in the Narrow Sense)
1.3.5 Differences between Statistical Indicators and
Observations: Cuba and the United States as Examples
1.3.6 Validity Issues and What We Want to Know?

2 The Wellbeing of Nations

2.1 Health: Height and Life Expectancy
2.2 The Human Development Approach
2.3 Psychological, Environmental and Holistic Approaches
2.3.1 Gross National Happiness (GNH)
 2.3.2 The Stiglitz–Sen–Fitoussi Approach
2.3.3 Happy Planet Index (HPI)
2.4 Including Political and Sociological Criteria
2.5 Why Still Use GDP?

3 Human Capital, Cognitive Ability and Intelligence

3.1 Terms and Definitions
3.2 Paradigms and Measurement Approaches
3.2.1 Education as a Proxy for Ability
3.2.2 Psychometric Intelligence Tests
3.2.3 Piagetian Cognitive Development
3.2.4 Educational Achievement
3.2.5 Cognitive Behaviour in Everyday Life and Its
Sediments
3.3 Contentious Issues
3.3.1 Fragmentation and Compartmentalisation in
Science
3.3.2 Political-Scientific Concerns and Epistemic-
Ideological Confoundings
3.3.3 Not All Relevant Aspects of Education Are
Covered
3.4 Cognitive Development and Its Determinants
3.4.1 Description of Development across Lifespan
3.4.2 Developmental Processes
3.4.3 Genes
3.4.4 Physical and Biological Aspects of Environment
3.4.5 Psychological Aspects of Environment – Family
3.4.6 Psychological Aspects of Environment –
Neighbourhoods, Preschool and School
 3.4.7 Individual Behaviour
3.4.8 How We Can Bring This All Together: Natascha
Kampusch and the Productive Imagination of
Malleability
3.5 Furtherance of Cognitive Ability
3.6 Can We Praise or Blame People for Cognitive Ability?

4 International Ability Differences and Their Development

4.1 Historical Differences (FLynn Effect)
4.2 National Differences
4.3 Methodical, Political and Cultural Objections
4.4 Everyday Life Evidence and Sediments
4.4.1 Indicators of Cognitive Ability for Historical and
International Analyses
4.4.2 Quantitative Data for Statistical Analyses
4.4.3 A Closer Look into Regions: A First Exercise in
Cognitive Hermeneutics of Everyday Life

5 Why Some Are Richer, Freer and More Democratic

5.1 Internal vs. External and Idealistic vs. Materialistic
Paradigms
5.2 Traditional Explanations
5.2.1 Economic Freedom (Capitalism)
5.2.2 Quality of Institutions
5.2.3 Geography
5.2.4 Dependency
5.3 Interplay of Proximal and Distal Factors

6 History, Culture and the Burgher-Civic World

 6.1 Worldview as the Core of Culture
6.1.1 Misunderstandings, Development and
Components
6.2 Religion, Thinking and Society
6.2.1 One Example: Anshu Jain and Jainism
6.3 The Burgher-Civic World
6.4 Reciprocal Causality Leading to Modernisation

7 Why Cognitive Factors Are Important: A Theory of

Cognitive Capitalism
7.1 General Cognitive Ability Effects
7.2 Higher Level Effects
7.2.1 Society and Culture: Music as an Example

8 The Impact of Cognitive-Intellectual Classes

8.1 General Cognitive and Specific Intellectual Class
Effects
8.2 Pilots, Airlines and Accidents
8.2.1 Chesley Sullenberger and US Airways Flight 1549
8.2.2 Contrasting Examples: Costa Concordia and
Ramstein
8.2.3 Airline Safety in Statistical Cross-Country
Comparisons
8.2.4 Accidents, Ruling Classes and Airlines in Turkey

9 Methodological Research Problems and Solutions

9.1 An Epistemic Rationality Approach to Research
9.2 Measurement Problems
9.3 Causal Assumptions
 9.4 Relationship between Individuals and Higher Order
Categories (Levels)

10 Causes of National and Historical Differences in Cognitive

Ability – and Reciprocal Effects
10.1 Wealth
10.2 Health
10.2.1 Parasites, Nutrition and Hygiene
10.2.2 AIDS as an Example: Effects and Causes
10.3 Politics
10.3.1 Peace
10.3.2 Rule of Law, Political Liberty and Democracy
10.3.3 Meritoric Orientation and Management
10.3.4 Fragmentation of Power
10.3.5 Demographics: Migration
10.4 Modernity and Modernisation
10.4.1 When Did Modernisation Begin? The Transition
of the Thirteenth Century
10.5 Education
10.5.1 Reciprocity between Education and Ability
10.5.2 Educational Quality
10.5.3 Summary on Educational Quality and
Methodological Considerations
10.6 Geography and Climate
10.7 Evolution and Genes
10.7.1 Indirect and Tentative Evidence on Genetic
Determinants
10.7.2 Evolutionary Theories and Indicators
 10.7.3 Recent Evolution among Humans: Evolutionary
Acceleration?
10.7.4 Consanguineous Marriages and the Genetic
Effects of Culture
10.7.5 The ‘Race’ Issue (Biological Categorisation
within Species)
10.7.6 Summary on Evolutionary Explanations
10.8 Culture and Worldviews
10.8.1 Animism
10.8.2 Judaism
10.8.3 Christianity
10.8.4 Islam
10.8.5 Hinduism
10.8.6 Buddhism
10.8.7 Confucianism
10.8.8 Impact on Cognitive Development and Burgher
World
10.8.9 Empirical-Quantitative Findings
10.9 The Interplay of Determinants

11 Global Models for Education, Cognitive Capital,

Production, Wealth and Wellbeing
11.1 Economy: Produced Income (GDP) and the Wealth
of Nations
11.2 Politics: Democracy, Liberty, Rule of Law and Gender
Equality
11.3 Explaining National Wellbeing Differences between
Countries
 11.4 The Impact of Education and School Education on
Cognitive Ability
11.5 Summary on National Wellbeing Differences

12 Challenges of Future Development and First Predictions

12.1 Rising Complexity
12.2 Demographic Changes
12.2.1 Ageing
12.2.2 Differential Fertility Effect: Lower Birth Rates
among Higher Ability Adults
12.2.3 Immigration
12.3 Resource Reduction
12.4 Climate Change
12.5 Rising Inequality within Societies
12.6 Predictions in Research
12.6.1 Historico-Philosophical Ideas of Progress Versus
Cyclic Theories of Rise and Fall
12.6.2 Keynes’ Famous Prediction from 1930
12.6.3 Current Predictions from other Researchers
12.6.4 Problems of Predictions

13 Models for Cognitive and Wealth Development in the

Twenty-First Century
13.1 A First and Simple Model: Prediction of Rising
Education Leading to Favourable Ability and GDP
Development
13.2 Sophisticated Model for Ability Development
13.2.1 General Assumptions
13.2.2 Continuing Environmental Improvements
 13.2.3 Migration Effects
13.2.4 Asymmetric Children Rates and Generation
Lengths
13.2.5 Identical or Different Cognitive Ceilings: Train or
Sailboat Model
13.2.6 Intelligence of the Future – Results
13.2.7 FLynn Effects Based on Expected Environmental
Improvements
13.2.8 Combining Birth Rate, Migration and FLynn
Effects
13.3 Model for Wealth Development
13.3.1 Past Growth and Wealth
13.3.2 Cognitive Determinants
13.3.3 Cognitive Determinants and Baseline Economic
Growth
13.3.4 Including Further Factors
13.4 Wealth at the End of the Twenty-First Century
13.4.1 Comparisons with other Models

14 Summary, Comparisons and Suggestions

14.1 Summary on Results of This Study
14.2 Comparison with Alternative and Complementary
Approaches and Their Insights
14.2.1 The Relevance of Enlightenment, Elites and
Innovation (Margaret Jacob and Joel Mokyr)
14.2.2 Institutions: Economic Rights and Freedom
(Douglass North, Daron Acemoglu)
14.2.3 Economic Freedom (Mises, Hayek, Friedman,
Rothbard, Hoppe)
 14.2.4 The Human Capital Approach within Economics
(Eric Hanushek and Colleagues)
14.2.5 Effects of Intelligence for the Economy (Garett
Jones)
14.2.6 The Climate Approach (Jared Diamond)
14.2.7 The Genetic-Economic Approach (Gregory
Clark)
14.2.8 The Psychometric and Genetic-Psychological
Approach at the International Level (Lynn & Vanhanen)
14.2.9 The Economic History Approach (David Landes)
14.2.10 Culture (Lawrence Harrison)
14.2.11 The Burgher World as Bourgeois Dignity
(Deirdre McCloskey)
14.2.12 Interplay of Cognitive Psychogenesis and
Sociogenesis (Georg Oesterdiekhoff)
14.2.13 Integrative Model: Evolution and Culture as
Background Determinants, Cognitive Ability and
Institutions as Crucial Intervening Factors and The
Burgher World as the Societal and Ideological Frame, All
Combined in a Reciprocal Network
14.3 What Can Be Done: Human Capital Policies and
Burgher World
14.3.1 Health
14.3.2 Family Environment
14.3.3 Formal Education
14.3.4 Cognitive Training
14.3.5 Welfare Policies
14.3.6 Demographic Policies
14.3.7 Immigration and Emigration
 14.3.8 Political and Institutional Reforms
14.3.9 Culture

References
Index
 Figures
1.1 Income (annual GDP/c) development in different regions
from 0001 to 2008 (data from Maddison, 2008)

1.2 Wealth around the world (annual GDP 2010, Penn V7.1,
per capita ppp, N = 188 countries)

2.1 Life expectancy development in different regions from

1950 to 2010 (data from UN, 2013)

2.2 National wellbeing around 2010 (built upon wealth,

health, psychology, security-stability, politics)

3.1 Raven Matrices-like tasks

3.2 Sketch of Piaget’s three mountains task

3.3 PISA 2000 Lake Chad task

3.4 Development of fluid and crystallised intelligence

according to the model of Cattell

3.5 Increase of cognitive competences and of individual

differences from form 1 to form 9 in the constant norms of
form 1

3.6 Illustration of positive or negative running, spiral-

shaped, dynamical developments

3.7 Proportions of variance attributable to genetic and

shared and non-shared environmental effects depending on
age in cognitive ability
3.8 Determinants of cognitive ability of primary school
students

4.1 Comparison of older and newer data on cognitive ability

levels of nations

4.2 G factor of international differences in cognitive ability

scales

4.3 Cognitive ability levels around the world; darker

represents higher values

4.4 Top cognitive ability level and cognitive achievement

across millennia for 99 countries

4.5 Core regions of top intellectual achievement within

Europe 800 BCE to 1950 CE according to Murray

6.1 Macrosocial process of development including worldview,

society and the individual

9.1 Possible causal paths between two and more related

variables

9.2 Path analysis with adult educational level, cognitive

ability and wealth

10.1 Cross-lagged effects; stronger cognitive effect in the

raw-GDP analysis; stronger wealth effect in the log-GDP
analysis

10.2 Cross-lagged effects; stronger wealth effect on

cognitive capital in the poorer country sample

10.3 Wealth is relevant for the cognitive development of the

poor and cognitive ability is relevant for the wealth
development of the rich
10.4 Influence of education and cognitive ability on health
behaviour resulting in health of HIV-infected persons and
diabetics (following Goldman & Smith, 2002)

10.5 Education, cognitive ability, political modernity,

economic wealth, percentage of Muslims and HIV-infection
rate N = 143 to 146 nations

10.6 Cross-lagged effects; stronger reducing cognitive effect

on HIV than of HIV on cognitive human capital

10.7 Main results from cross-lagged analyses with rule of

law, political liberty and democracy and cognitive capital
controlled for wealth

10.8 Results from cross-lagged analyses with rule of law,

political liberty and democracy and cognitive capital
controlled for wealth; stronger cognitive effect on politics
than of wealth on politics or of politics on cognitive capital

10.9 Effects of meritoric principles on cognitive capital

development controlled for past ability and annual GDP/c

10.10 Effects of technological, societal-cultural-political and

cognitive-intellectual modernity on cognitive capital
development controlled for former cognitive capital and GDP

10.11 Cross-lagged effects between cognitive ability (as

measured by student assessment tests, SAS) and education
(years at school), 1970 to 1990

10.12 Discipline and students’ cognitive competence for 93

countries

10.13 Direct instruction and students’ cognitive competence

for 80 countries
10.14 Prediction of cognitive ability by using two haplogroup
sets as genetic markers of evolution and by a general
development indicator of society (HDI)

10.15 Prediction of proximity in cognitive ability by proximity

in latitude, longitude, HDI and genes

10.16 Cladistic model of the evolution of human populations

following Andreasen (2004)

10.17 Theoretical model for effects of religion on cognitive

ability and the development and preservation of a burgher
world

11.1 Global wealth model

11.2 Global politics model (political wellbeing)

11.3 The wellbeing of nations and its determinants

11.4 Model for education

12.1 Relationship between assumed (linear) genotypic

intelligence development and (zigzag) innovation over time
(r = .88; Woodley, 2012)

13.1 Education-based estimated cognitive ability

development in the twenty-first century

13.2 Estimated GDP/c development in the twenty-first

century

13.3 Migration-ability paradox exemplified for two countries

with a d = 1 (15 IQ) gap (similar to US and Mexico, France
and Tunisia, UK and Trinidad, Germany and Turkey)

13.4 Simulation of combined fertility and generation length

effects on population development

13.5 Simulation of combined fertility and generation span

effects on cognitive ability development

13.6 Train model of twenty-first-century cognitive ability

development

13.7 Sailboat model of twenty-first-century cognitive ability

development

13.8 Same-boat-but-different-team model of twenty-first-

century cognitive ability development

13.9 Estimated migrant share development in the twenty-

first century

13.10 Estimated ability development in the twenty-first

century based on migrant model 2

13.11 Estimated cognitive ability development in the

twenty-first century based on FLynn effect and gap closing

13.12 Ability changes due to migrant share changes

13.13 Final integrative model predictions for the twenty-first

century

13.14 Effects of the three factors on cognitive development

in the West in general, in selected regions and countries and
in Qatar in the twenty-first century

13.15 Predicted GDP per capita development in the twenty-

first century

13.16 Predicted economic growth development in the

twenty-first century
14.1 Summary on education
 Tables
1.1 Income differences across time and continents (annual
per capita GDP and GNI in comparable units)

1.2 Income differences across time and regions (annual per

capita GDP and GNI in comparable units)

1.3 Differences in GDP ppp per capita 2000 between

Maddison and Penn

1.4 Wealth means and differences across regions (assets

from Credit Suisse per adult in 2013 US dollar)

2.1 Height and life expectancy

2.2 Human development indices 1870–2010

2.3 Happy Planet Index 2012 and three subindices

2.4 National wellbeing index (around 2010)

4.1 Results of older student assessment studies (SAS)

4.2 Correlations between national measures of cognitive

ability

4.3 Cognitive ability estimates

4.4 Indicators of cognitive achievement in historical

development

4.5 Indicators of cognitive achievement in modern times

4.6 Correlations between cognitive ability estimates and
indicators of cognitive achievement in past and present

5.1 Paradigms for national differences in wellbeing

8.1 Correlations between cognitive ability estimates and

technological safety measures

9.1 Correlations between variables at different data levels

10.1 Correlations between wealth and cognitive ability

indicators

10.2 Cognitive ability averages, natives and migrants and

gains (or losses) for receiving countries

10.3 Correlations of modernity ratings and estimates (and

meritoric principles)

10.4 Correlation between cognitive ability and educational

variables

10.5 Correlations between educational indicators and

cognitive ability

10.6 Correlations of geographical indicators and cognitive

ability (compared with wealth)

10.7 Correlations of skin lightness and cognitive ability and

GNI

10.8 Correlations between brain size (cranial capacity) and

cognitive ability and GNI

10.9 Percentages of consanguinity and correlations

10.10 Correlations among three genetic indicators

10.11 Religions and ability and education

10.12 Religions and enlightenment, society and politics

11.1 Correlations between background compared to ability

and historical indicators of intellectual achievement, wealth
and democracy

12.1 Wealth increases indicated by GDP/c ($) from 1930

onward

12.2 Correlation of Figure 11.1 2010 wealth determinants

with wealth increases from 1930–2010

12.3 Hart’s chronology of human intelligence and 2100

prediction

12.4 Average annual growth rates and achieved GDP 2050

13.1 Education, cognitive ability and GDP/c in 2010 and

2100

13.2 Cognitive ability and theoretical finishing lines

13.3 Cognitive ability prediction 2100 (only based on

assumptions on asymmetric fertility)

13.4 Cognitive ability prediction 2100 (only based on

assumptions on migration), new immigrants with same or
different ability levels

13.5 Cognitive ability prediction 2100 (based on

assumptions on FLynn effect and no changes in migrant
shares)

13.6 Cognitive ability prediction 2100 (based on

assumptions on FLynn effect and changes in migrant
shares)

13.7 Cognitive ability prediction 2100 (final integrative

model)

13.8 Cognitive ability predictions (models 2018 and 2011

compared for 97 countries)

13.9 GDP per capita in 2010 and 2100 (different models)

13.10 GDP/c in 2010 and 2100 (different cognitive models)

13.11 GDP/c in 2010 and 2100 (different demographic

models)

13.12 GDP per capita in 2010 and predicted for 2100

(modifying factors: advantages of backwardness, complexity
burden, risk factors, regional umfeld-neighbourhood)

13.13 Correlations of background factors and cognitive

ability with growth and production estimations in the twenty-
first century

13.14 Economic predictions (models 2018 and 2011

compared for 88 countries)
 Preface
Why are we much richer today than our ancestors? Why in the last
centuries so many nations have developed towards liberty, rule of
law and peace? And why are some nations still on average much
richer, freer and safer than others which lag behind? Why do
countries and populations progress or regress, prosper or fail, fall or
rise?
People as individuals as well as nations had and have to face
large differences in given political and economic conditions. And
peoples themselves, from historical and cross-country comparisons,
largely differ in habits, values, preferences and, less known but
importantly, in competences. All these characteristics are connected.
Of course they are connected; simple correlational studies show
empirical relations. However, mere descriptions of various indicators
of development and of their usually positive associations are
intellectually unsatisfactory. We want to understand why peoples and
societal conditions are how they are, why they are interrelated, what
causes are at work and what we can learn to improve the fate of
societies. Big questions!
Big questions call for big theories. Nevertheless, for solid
answers in the search for reasons and causes we need the nitpicky
work on numbers led by epistemic rationality. This is even more
important, as these questions are tangential to religious, cultural,
ethical and political worldviews. In classical German philosophy and
social science such worldviews were termed Weltanschauungen
(Jaspers, 1919). They shape our perceptions of what happens
around us and also influence our judgement in epistemic questions;
in those questions in which answers have to be solely judged
according to their approximation of truth and not according to their
affinity to our likes and dislikes.
We consider ‘cognitive capital’ to be crucial for economic
growth, especially in modernity. Cognitive capital is conceptualised
as the ability to think, to solve problems by cognitive means, to
reason inductively and deductively, to deal with abstraction, to
understand and construct meaning, to learn, to acquire and use true
and relevant knowledge. In psychology, this cognitive capital is
termed intelligence, cognitive ability or cognitive competence.
Cognitive capital has driven and continuously drives technological
and cultural modernisation. For these macro-social processes, the
level of high ability cognitive classes is especially important, shaping
an intellectual climate, working through innovation and
management, expressing itself in technology and companies, in law
and politics, in science and the arts.
In historic development and in cross-cultural comparison,
cognitive ability and its rise are related to the emergence of a
burgher-civic world, supported by cultural factors furthering
education and intelligence. Such a development includes mediated
reciprocal effects, from culture via physical, societal and
psychological environments to ability and back to environment and
culture. This has led in the past and present to differences in
cognitive capital and wealth.
However, this is not the only approach developed in the field.
What impact do the accidental determinants of geography, climate
and mineral resources and the less accidental circumstances of
history, politics and power structures have? And what about
evolutionary factors? The quality of political and economic
institutions? The contribution of a scientific model cannot be
sufficiently evaluated by mere empirical proof using data, statistics
and causal modelling, but also needs a careful comparison to
alternative, complementary or rival scientific approaches.
I hope this book will stimulate discussion and scientific progress.
I could not have written it without the help of many others. First of
all, every study is built on the work of many predecessors, whose
work and discoveries enriched our understanding and thinking.
Colleagues helped me through their research and stimulating,
sometimes critical, comments. There is a vivid international scene;
we remain close by reading the publications of our colleagues, by
email and by exchanges at annual meetings. My work benefited from
receiving stimulating ideas and extensive data sets. The best way to
honour such contributions is by referring to and working with them.
In particular, I give thanks to David Becker, Gregory Christainsen and
Justus Sänger, who carefully checked earlier drafts of the book and
contributed many valuable suggestions. Erich Weede and Garett
Jones read my final drafts, which then turned out to be very
preliminary versions as they were greatly improved by their advice.
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 In the pause that followed, Emmons turned to the lawyer.
“Now, you are a clever man, Mr. Overton,” he said easily. “Perhaps
you can explain to me, why it is that a fellow who is known to be a
thief and a liar should be in such a hurry to write himself down a
murderer as well?”
The tone and manner of the interruption, coming at a moment of
high emotion, were too much for Vickers’s temper. He turned on
Emmons white with rage.
“I’ve stood about as much as I mean to stand from you,” he said.
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but you will either believe me or leave this house.”
His tone was so menacing that Overton stood up, expecting
trouble, but it was Nellie who spoke.
“James will do nothing of the kind,” she said. “If you are not Bob
Lee you have no right to say who shall stay in this house and who
shall not. The house is mine, and I won’t have any one in it who can’t
be civil to James.”
“Then you certainly can’t have me,” said Vickers.
“It seems not,” answered Nellie.
They exchanged such a steel-like glance as only those who love
each other can inflict, and then Vickers flung out of the house.
When, a few minutes later, Overton caught up with him, his anger
had not cooled.
“Hush, hush, my dear fellow,” said the lawyer. “Hilltop is not
accustomed to such language. Let a spirited lady have her heroics if
she wants.”
 Chapter XI
Left alone with her fiancé, perhaps Nellie expected a word of
praise for her gallant public demonstration in his favor. If so, she was
disappointed.
“Upon my word!” he exclaimed, as the door shut after Vickers. “I
never in all my life heard such an audacious impostor. Imagine his
daring to pass himself off as Mr. Lee’s son throughout an entire
month!”
“He told me within twenty-four hours of his arrival that he was not
Bob Lee, and I think he told you, too, James; only you would not
believe him.”
Emmons took no notice of this reply, but continued his own train of
thought. “When I think that for four weeks you have been practically
alone in the house with an escaped murderer—for I don’t believe a
word of all this story about false testimony—my blood runs cold. And
it is only by the merest chance that we have succeeded in rescuing
all your uncle’s property from his hands.”
“I think you are wrong, James. Mr. Vickers never intended to
accept my uncle’s property.”
“My dear Nellie! Women are so extraordinarily innocent in financial
matters. That was the object of his whole plot.”
“I don’t think it was a plot. It seems to me, indeed, that we both
owe an apology to Mr. Vickers.”
“An apology!” said Emmons, and his color deepened. “I think you
must be mad, Nellie. I think I owe an apology to the community for
having left him at large so long. I ought to have telegraphed to the
sheriff of Vickers’s Crossing at once, and I mean to do so without
delay.”
 Nellie rose to her feet. “If you do that, James—” she began, and
then, perhaps remembering that she had been accused of being
over-fond of threats in the past, she changed her tone. “You will not
do that, I am sure, James, when you stop to consider that you heard
Mr. Vickers’s story only because I insisted on having you present. It
would be a breach of confidence to me as well as to him.”
Emmons laughed. “The law, my dear girl,” he said, “does not take
cognizance of these fine points. It is my duty when I have my hand
on an escaped murderer to close it, and I intend to do so. He
probably means to leave Hilltop to-night, and I shall not be able to
get a warrant from Vickers’s Crossing until to-morrow, but I can
arrange with the local authorities to arrest him on some trumped-up
charge that will hold him, until we get the papers.”
He moved toward the door; to his surprise Nellie was there before
him.
“One moment,” she said. “I don’t think you understand how I feel
about this matter. I know Mr. Vickers better than you do. Whatever
he may have done in the past, I feel myself under obligations to him.
He has done more than you can even imagine, James, to make my
uncle’s last days happy. He has been more considerate of me,” she
hesitated, and then went on,—“more considerate of me, in some
ways, than any one I have ever met, though I have been uniformly
insolent and high-handed with him. I admire Mr. Vickers in many
respects.”
“It is not ten minutes, however, since you turned him out of your
house.”
Nellie was silent, and then she made a decisive gesture. “I will not
have you telegraph for that warrant, James. I let you stay under the
impression that you were an honorable man, and I will not have Mr.
Vickers betrayed through my mistake.”
“Honor! betrayed!” cried Emmons. “Aren’t we using pretty big
words about the arrest of a common criminal? I am very sorry if you
disapprove, Nellie, but I have never yet allowed man or woman to
interfere with what I consider my duty, and I don’t mean to now. Let
me pass, please.”
She did not at once move. “Oh, I’ll let you pass, James,” she
answered deliberately, “only I want you to understand what it means.
I won’t marry you, if you do this. I don’t know that I could bring myself
to marry you anyhow, now.”
She had the art of irritating her opponent, and Emmons exclaimed,
“I dare say you prefer this jailbird to me.”
She did not reply in words, but she moved away from the door,
and Emmons went out of it. The instant he had gone she rang the
bell, and when Plimpton appeared she said: “Tell the coachman that
I want a trap and the fastest horse of the pair just as quickly as he
can get it. Tell him to hurry, Plimpton.”
Plimpton bowed, though he did not approve of servants being
hurried. He liked orders to be given in time. Nevertheless, he gave
her message, and within half an hour she was in Mr. Overton’s
drawing-room. The great man greeted her warmly.
“Do you know, my dear Nellie,” he said, almost as he entered, “I
was just thinking that I ought to have made an appointment to see
you again. Of course you are in a hurry to get a complete schedule
of your new possessions, and to know what you may count on in the
future. Shall we say to-morrow—that is Saturday, isn’t it?—about
three?”
“Oh, there is not the least hurry about that,” returned Nellie, and
her manner was unusually agitated, “any time you like. I did not
come about that. I came to ask you if you knew where Bob is—Mr.
Vickers, I mean?”
“Yes,” said Overton, “I do!”
“Something dreadful has happened,” Nellie went on with less and
less composure. “I have only just found it out. As soon as our
interview was over, James Emmons told me he meant to telegraph
to Vickers’s Crossing, or whatever the name of the place is, for a
warrant. He expects to be able to arrest Mr. Vickers at once.”
 “He does, does he—the hound!” cried Overton, for the first time
losing his temper. He rang a bell, and when a servant answered it he
ordered a trap to be ready at once. Returning to Nellie, he found that
she had buried her face in her handkerchief, and he repented his
violence.
“There, there, forgive me, Miss Nellie,” he said. “I did not mean to
call him a hound. I forgot that you were going to marry him.”
“Oh, don’t apologize to me,” replied Nellie, with some animation; “I
wish I had said it myself. I am not going to marry him.”
The news startled Overton. “Why, is that wise, my dear child?” he
said. “Perhaps neither of us does him justice. He is a good, steady,
reliable man, and if I were you, I would not go back on him in a
hurry.”
“He is not any one of those things,” said Nellie, drying her eyes,
and looking as dignified as the process allowed. “He is base. He took
advantage of what he heard in confidence—of what he only heard at
all because I made a point of his being there. Is that reliable, or
steady? I call it dishonorable and I would rather die than marry such
a creature, and so I told him.”
“You know your own business best,” answered Overton, “but the
world is a sad place for lonely women.”
“It would be a very sad place for both James and me, if I married
him feeling as I do,” said Nellie, and judging by her expression
Overton was inclined to agree with her. “It was all very well while I
could respect James, but now——”
“Still, ordinary prudence—” the lawyer began, but she interrupted.
“Don’t talk to me about ordinary prudence. That is what led me into
the awful mistake of being engaged to him at all. I thought it would
be wise. I used to get thinking about the future, and whether I should
have anything to live on——”
“And you don’t think of these things now?”
“I don’t care sixpence about the future,” returned Nellie, “and I’m
sure I don’t know why I’ve been crying, except that I am tired, and I
think I’ll go home. You’ll warn Mr. Vickers, won’t you?”
“I will,” said Overton.
Nellie still hesitated. “He is here, I suppose.”
“Yes. He was thinking of staying to dine with me, and taking a late
train to town. He has a steamer to catch to-morrow; but after what
you say”—Overton looked at his watch—“I rather think that he had
better go at once. There’s a train within half an hour.”
“Oh, he had much better go at once, before James has time to
make trouble,” she answered; and then added gravely, “Mr. Overton,
do you believe that the murder happened just as Mr. Vickers said?”
“Do you?”
“Yes.”
“So do I,” Overton answered, “but then I have some reason, for I
remember something of the case, which was a very celebrated one
up the State. And now, Nellie, I’ll tell you a secret which I wouldn’t
trust to any one else. I have an impression—a vague one, but still I
trust it—that that case was set straight, somehow or other. If it
should be——”
“Telegraph and find out.”
“I wrote some days ago—the night before your uncle was taken ill;
but I have had no answer. But mind, don’t tell him. It would be too
cruel, if I should turn out to be wrong.”
“I?” said Nellie. “I don’t ever expect to see the man again.”
“I suppose not,” he returned, “and yet I wish it were not too much
to ask you to take him to the station in your trap. He won’t have more
than time, and mine has not come to the door yet.”
Nellie looked as if she were going to refuse, but when she spoke
she spoke quite definitely: “I’ll take him,” she said.
“Thank you,” said Overton, and left the room.
In his library he found Vickers standing on the hearthrug, though
there was no fire in the chimney-place. His head was bent and he
was vaguely chinking some coins in his pocket.
“Well, Vickers,” said his host coolly, “I have a disagreeable piece of
news for you. Emmons, it seems, has telegraphed for a warrant, and
does not intend to let you go until he gets it, but possibly he won’t be
prepared for your slipping away at once. There’s a train at five-ten.
Do you care to try it?”
Vickers looked up, as if the whole matter were of very small
interest to him. “There does not seem to be anything else to do, does
there?” he said.
“Of course, my offer of a position is still open to you.”
“I can’t stay in this country with Emmons on my heels. They’d lock
me up in a minute.”
“You have never heard anything further about your case, have
you?”
“Not a word. There wasn’t much to hear, I expect. I suppose I had
better be going.”
“Your bags are at the Lees’ still, aren’t they?”
“And can stay there, for all I care. I’ll not put foot in that house
again.”
“I hope you don’t feel too resentfully towards Miss Lee,” Overton
began, “for in the first place it was she who brought me word of this
move of Emmons, and in the second——”
“I don’t feel resentful at all,” interrupted Vickers. “But I don’t feel as
if I wanted to go out of my way to see her again.”
“And in the second,” Overton went on, “the only way you can
possibly catch your train now is to let her drive you down. She has a
trap outside, and she seemed to be——”
He paused, for the door had slammed behind Vickers, and when
he followed, the two were already in the trap. Overton smiled.
“That’s right,” he said, “make haste; but you might at least say
good-by to a man you may never see again. Good-by, my dear
fellow; good luck.”
Vickers, a little ashamed, shook hands with the older man in
silence, and Overton went on: “Whatever happens, Vickers, do not
resist arrest. I have ordered a trap and I’ll follow you as soon as it
comes. Not that I anticipate any trouble.”
They drove away, and Overton as he entered the house murmured
to himself, “Not that they listened to a word I said.”
Yet if they had not listened, it did not seem to be from any desire
to talk themselves. They drove out of the gates in silence, and had
gone some distance before Nellie asked,
“Where shall you go to-night, Mr. Vickers?”
“Thank you for your interest,” returned Vickers bitterly, “but it
seems that my plans have been quite sufficiently spread about
Hilltop. Perhaps it would be as well for me not to answer your
question. I am going away.”
Not unnaturally this speech angered Nellie. “You do not seem to
understand,” she said, “that I came to warn you that you must go.”
“I was going anyhow,” he retorted, “but of course I am very much
obliged to you for any trouble you may have taken.”
“I thought it my duty,” she began, but he interrupted her with a
laugh.
“Your duty, of course. You never do anything from any other
motive. That is exactly why I do not tell you my plans. You might feel
it your duty to repeat them to Emmons. I think I remember your
saying that you always tell him everything.”
“You are making it,” said Nellie, in a voice as cool as his own,
“rather difficult for me to say what I think is due to you—and that is
that I owe you an apology for having insisted yesterday——”
“You owe me so many apologies,” returned Vickers, “that you will
hardly have time to make them between here and the station, so
perhaps it is hardly worth while to begin.”
 “You have a right to take this tone with me,” said Nellie, acutely
aware how often she had taken it with him. “But you shall not keep
me from saying, Mr. Vickers, that I am very conscious of how ill I
have treated you, and that your patience has given me a respect for
you—” She stopped, for Vickers laughed contemptuously; but as he
said nothing in answer, she presently went on again: “I do not know
what it is that strikes you as ludicrous in what I am saying. I was
going to add that I should like to hear, now and then, how you are
getting on, if it is not too much to ask.”
He turned on her. “You mean you want me to write to you?”
She nodded.
“I am afraid your future husband would not approve of the
correspondence, and as you tell him everything—no, I had far better
risk it now, and tell you my plans at once. I am going to South
America, where I am going to be a real live general over a small but
excellent little army. I know, for I made some of it myself.”
“And will you be safe there?”
“Yes, if you mean from Emmons and the process of the law. On
the other hand, some people do not consider soldiering the very
safest of professions—especially in those countries, where they
sometimes really fight, and, contrary to the popular notion, when
they do fight, it is very much the real thing. Fancy your feelings,
Nellie, when some day you read in the papers: ‘The one irreparable
loss to the Liberal party was the death of General Don Luis Vickers,
who died at the head of his column....’ Ah, I should die happy, if only
I could die with sufficient glory to induce Emmons to refer to me in
public as ‘an odd sort of fellow, a cousin of my wife’s.’ I can hear him.
My spirit would return to gloat.”
“He will never say that,” said Nellie, with a meaning which Vickers,
unhappily, lost.
“Ah, you can’t tell, Nellie. ‘General Luis Vickers’ sounds so much
better than ‘Vickers, the man the police want.’ And Emmons’s
standards, I notice, depend almost entirely on what people say.
Nellie,” he went on suddenly, “I have something to say to you. You
and I are never going to see each other again, and Heaven knows I
don’t want to write to you or hear from you again. This is all there will
ever be, and I am going to offer you a piece of advice as if I were
going to die to-morrow. Don’t marry Emmons! He is not the right sort.
Perhaps you think I have no right to criticise a man who has always
kept a good deal straighter than I, but it is just because I have
knocked about that I know. He won’t do. You are independent now.
Your farm will bring you in something. Keep the fellow I put in there,
and sell a few of the upland lots. You won’t be rich, but you’ll be
comfortable. Don’t marry Emmons.”
“Why do you say this to me?”
“Because I know it’s the right thing to say. I can say anything to
you. As far as a woman like you is concerned, I realize a man like
myself—without a cent, without even a decent name—doesn’t exist
at all; not even Emmons himself could suppose that in advising you
not to marry him, I have any hope for myself.”
“And yet that is just what he does think.” She forced herself to look
at him, and her look had the anxious temerity of a child who has just
defied its elders.
“Nellie, what do you mean?”
“I am not going to marry Mr. Emmons.”
“You are not! You are not!! Oh, my darling! What a place the world
is! Have I really lost you?”
Nellie smiled at him, without turning her head. “I thought you had
no hope.”
He had no sense of decency, for he kissed her twice on the public
highway. “I haven’t,” he answered. “I can’t stay, and you can’t go with
me. Imagine you in the tropics.”
“I certainly can’t go if I’m not asked.”
“Think what you are saying to me, woman,” he answered. “In
another moment I shall ask you if you love me, and then——”
 She turned to him, and put her hand in his. “Suppose you do ask
me,” she said.
Vickers held it, and bent his head over it, and laid it against his
mouth, but he shook his head. “No,” he said, “I won’t. I have just one
or two remnants of decency left, and I won’t do that.”
He stopped: for Nellie had turned the horse down an unexpected
road. “Where are you going?” he said.
“Back to the house. You can’t sail without your things.”
“My dear girl, I’ve spent half my life traveling without my things.”
“Well, you aren’t going to do it any more,” she answered, and her
tone had so domestic a flavor that he kissed her again.
Plimpton met them in the hall, and Nellie lost no time.
“Pack Mr. Vickers’s things at once, please,” she said, and would
have passed on, but she was arrested by Plimpton’s voice.
“Whose, Madam?” he asked; like many men of parts, he believed
that to be puzzled and to be insulted are much the same thing.
“Mine, Plimpton, mine,” said Vickers. “And just for once leave out
as much of the tissue paper and cotton wool as possible. I’ve a train
to catch.”
“And tell my maid to pack something for me—as much as she can
get into a valise; and tea at once, Plimpton.”
Plimpton did not say that he totally disapproved of the whole plan,
but his tone was very cold, as he said that tea was already served in
the drawing-room.
“Goodness only knows when we shall see food again,” Nellie
remarked as she sat down behind the tea-kettle.
“I can hardly catch my train, Nellie.”
“No matter. We can drive over to the other line—nine or ten miles.”
“It will be rather a long lonely journey back, won’t it?”
 “For the horse, you mean?” said Nellie. “Well, to tell the truth I
don’t exactly know how the horse is going to get back and I don’t
much care.”
“Nellie,” said Vickers, and he laid his hand on her shoulder with a
gesture that was almost paternal. “I can’t let you do this. You have no
idea what a life it would be,—what it would mean to be the wife of a
man who——”
“I shall know very soon,” returned she irrepressibly. “But I have
some idea what a life it would be to be left behind, and so I am afraid
you must put this newly-found prudence of yours in your pocket, and
make up your mind——”
But she did not finish a sentence whose end was fairly obvious, for
the door was thrown open in Plimpton’s best manner, and Emmons
entered. He stopped on seeing Vickers, and stared at him with round
eyes.
“You!” he cried. “This is the last place I should have thought of
looking for you.”
“But does not a meeting like this make amends—” Vickers began
lightly, but Nellie struck a better note with her cool: “I should think
this would have been the most natural place to look. Tea, James?”
“No, thank you,” replied Emmons sternly. “I’ve no time for tea just
now. I parted from the sheriff not ten minutes ago, and I must go and
find him at once.”
“Sorry you won’t stay and have a chat,” said Vickers. “But
doubtless you know best.”
“You’ll find out what I know within half an hour,” said Emmons, and
left the room, slamming the door behind him.
“James is developing quite a taste for repartee,” observed Vickers.
Nellie rose, put out the light under the kettle, and began to draw on
her gloves. “We must start now,” she said.
“Now, or never,” said Vickers.
 They were half-way down the drive before Nellie asked in the most
matter-of-fact tone, “Are the bags in?”
He nodded.
“Mine, too?”
“Yours, too, Nellie. Weak-kneed that I am, when I felt it in my hand,
I said a brave man would leave this one behind, but—I put it in.”
Catching his eye, she smiled. “That was very kind of you,” she
said, “for I, you know, have not spent half my life traveling without my
things.”
 A NEW NOVEL OF UNUSUAL MERIT
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 “He is probably funny because he cannot help it.... Must
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responsibility.”—The Nation.

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