Download textbook Complex Systems Design Management Asia Smart Transportation Proceedings Of The Third Asia Pacific Conference On Complex Systems Design Management Csd M Asia 2018 Michel Alexandre Cardin ebook all chapter pdf

Complex Systems Design Management
Asia Smart Transportation Proceedings

of the Third Asia Pacific Conference on
Complex Systems Design Management
CSD M Asia 2018 Michel Alexandre
Cardin
Visit to download the full and correct content document:
https://textbookfull.com/product/complex-systems-design-management-asia-smart-tra
nsportation-proceedings-of-the-third-asia-pacific-conference-on-complex-systems-des
ign-management-csd-m-asia-2018-michel-alexandre-cardin/
More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...
Complex Systems Design Management Asia Smart Nations

Sustaining and Designing Proceedings of the Second Asia
Pacific Conference on Complex Systems Design Management
CSD M Asia 2016 1st Edition Michel-Alexandre Cardin
https://textbookfull.com/product/complex-systems-design-
management-asia-smart-nations-sustaining-and-designing-
proceedings-of-the-second-asia-pacific-conference-on-complex-
systems-design-management-csd-m-asia-2016-1st-edition-michel/
Complex Systems Design Management Proceedings of the

Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems
Design Management CSD M 2013 1st Edition John
Fitzgerald
management-proceedings-of-the-fourth-international-conference-on-
complex-systems-design-management-csd-m-2013-1st-edition-john-
fitzgerald/
Complex Systems Design Management Proceedings of the

Fifth International Conference on Complex Systems
Design Management CSD M 2014 1st Edition Frédéric
Boulanger
management-proceedings-of-the-fifth-international-conference-on-
complex-systems-design-management-csd-m-2014-1st-edition-
frederic-boulanger/
Complex Systems Design amp Management Proceedings of

the Tenth International Conference on Complex Systems
Design Management CSD M Paris 2019 Guy André Boy
https://textbookfull.com/product/complex-systems-design-amp-
management-proceedings-of-the-tenth-international-conference-on-
complex-systems-design-management-csd-m-paris-2019-guy-andre-boy/
Methods and Applications for Modeling and Simulation of
Complex Systems 18th Asia Simulation Conference AsiaSim
2018 Kyoto Japan October 27 29 2018 Proceedings Liang
Li
https://textbookfull.com/product/methods-and-applications-for-
modeling-and-simulation-of-complex-systems-18th-asia-simulation-
conference-asiasim-2018-kyoto-japan-
october-27-29-2018-proceedings-liang-li/
The Proceedings of the 2018 Asia Pacific International

Symposium on Aerospace Technology APISAT 2018 Xinguo
Zhang
https://textbookfull.com/product/the-proceedings-of-
the-2018-asia-pacific-international-symposium-on-aerospace-
technology-apisat-2018-xinguo-zhang/
Methods and Applications for Modeling and Simulation of

Complex Systems 19th Asia Simulation Conference AsiaSim
2019 Singapore October 30 November 1 2019 Proceedings
Gary Tan
https://textbookfull.com/product/methods-and-applications-for-
modeling-and-simulation-of-complex-systems-19th-asia-simulation-
conference-asiasim-2019-singapore-
october-30-november-1-2019-proceedings-gary-tan/
Complex, Intelligent, and Software Intensive Systems:

Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on
Complex, Intelligent, and Software Intensive Systems
(CISIS-2019) Leonard Barolli
https://textbookfull.com/product/complex-intelligent-and-
software-intensive-systems-proceedings-of-the-13th-international-
conference-on-complex-intelligent-and-software-intensive-systems-
cisis-2019-leonard-barolli/
Redefining Diversity & Dynamics of Natural Resources

Management in Asia, Volume 1. Sustainable Natural
Resources Management in Dynamic Asia 1st Edition Ganesh
Shivakoti
https://textbookfull.com/product/redefining-diversity-dynamics-
of-natural-resources-management-in-asia-volume-1-sustainable-
natural-resources-management-in-dynamic-asia-1st-edition-ganesh-
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 878
Michel Alexandre Cardin
Daniel Hastings
Peter Jackson
Daniel Krob
Pao Chuen Lui
Gerhard Schmitt Editors
Complex Systems
Design &
Management Asia
Smart Transportation: Proceedings
of the Third Asia-Pacific Conference
on Complex Systems Design &
Management, CSD&M Asia 2018
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
Volume 878
Series editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
e-mail: kacprzyk@ibspan.waw.pl
The series “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” contains publications on theory,
applications, and design methods of Intelligent Systems and Intelligent Computing. Virtually all
disciplines such as engineering, natural sciences, computer and information science, ICT, economics,
business, e-commerce, environment, healthcare, life science are covered. The list of topics spans all the
areas of modern intelligent systems and computing such as: computational intelligence, soft computing
including neural networks, fuzzy systems, evolutionary computing and the fusion of these paradigms,
social intelligence, ambient intelligence, computational neuroscience, artificial life, virtual worlds and
society, cognitive science and systems, Perception and Vision, DNA and immune based systems,
self-organizing and adaptive systems, e-Learning and teaching, human-centered and human-centric
computing, recommender systems, intelligent control, robotics and mechatronics including
human-machine teaming, knowledge-based paradigms, learning paradigms, machine ethics, intelligent
data analysis, knowledge management, intelligent agents, intelligent decision making and support,
intelligent network security, trust management, interactive entertainment, Web intelligence and multimedia.
The publications within “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” are primarily proceedings
of important conferences, symposia and congresses. They cover significant recent developments in the
field, both of a foundational and applicable character. An important characteristic feature of the series is
the short publication time and world-wide distribution. This permits a rapid and broad dissemination of
research results.
Advisory Board
Chairman
Nikhil R. Pal, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India
e-mail: nikhil@isical.ac.in
Members
Rafael Bello Perez, Universidad Central “Marta Abreu” de Las Villas, Santa Clara, Cuba
e-mail: rbellop@uclv.edu.cu
Emilio S. Corchado, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
e-mail: escorchado@usal.es
Hani Hagras, University of Essex, Colchester, UK
e-mail: hani@essex.ac.uk
László T. Kóczy, Széchenyi István University, Győr, Hungary
e-mail: koczy@sze.hu
Vladik Kreinovich, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, USA
e-mail: vladik@utep.edu
Chin-Teng Lin, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan
e-mail: ctlin@mail.nctu.edu.tw
Jie Lu, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia
e-mail: Jie.Lu@uts.edu.au
Patricia Melin, Tijuana Institute of Technology, Tijuana, Mexico
e-mail: epmelin@hafsamx.org
Nadia Nedjah, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
e-mail: nadia@eng.uerj.br
Ngoc Thanh Nguyen, Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
e-mail: Ngoc-Thanh.Nguyen@pwr.edu.pl
Jun Wang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong
e-mail: jwang@mae.cuhk.edu.hk
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11156

Michel Alexandre Cardin
Daniel Hastings Peter Jackson
•
Daniel Krob Pao Chuen Lui

•
Gerhard Schmitt
Editors
Complex Systems Design &

Management Asia
Smart Transportation: Proceedings
of the Third Asia-Pacific Conference
on Complex Systems Design & Management,
CSD&M Asia 2018
123
Editors
Michel Alexandre Cardin Daniel Krob
CESAMES Singapore CESAMES
Singapore, Singapore Paris, France
Daniel Hastings Pao Chuen Lui

Singapore MIT Alliance for Research National Research Foundation
and Technology Singapore, Singapore
Singapore, Singapore
Gerhard Schmitt
Peter Jackson Singapore-ETH Centre
Singapore University of Technology Singapore, Singapore
and Design (SUTD)
Singapore, Singapore
ISSN 2194-5357 ISSN 2194-5365 (electronic)

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
ISBN 978-3-030-02885-5 ISBN 978-3-030-02886-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02886-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018959428
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
Introduction
This volume contains the proceedings of the Third International Asia-Pacific

Conference on “Complex Systems Design & Management” (CSD&M Asia 2018;
see the conference Web site: http://www.2018.csdm-asia.net for more details).
The CSD&M Asia 2018 conference was jointly organized on December 6–7,
2018, at the National University of Singapore (NUS) by the two following founding
partners:
1. CESAM Community managed by the Center of Excellence on Systems
Architecture, Management, Economy & Strategy (CESAMES),
2. The National University of Singapore (NUS).
The conference also benefited from the permanent support of the two following
departments to organize the conference: SMART, the Singapore-MIT Alliance for
Research and Technology and SEC, the Singapore-ETH Centre.
We are grateful to many other institutions—academic and professional—that
helped us a lot through their involvement during the one-year preparation of
CSD&M Asia 2018: DSTA, IRT SystemX, ST Engineering, SUTD, Thales
Solutions Asia, and also the International Council on Systems Engineering
(INCOSE) who strongly supported our communication efforts.
Many thanks, therefore, to all of them.
Why a CSD&M Asia Conference?
Mastering complex systems requires an integrated understanding of industrial

practices as well as sophisticated theoretical techniques and tools. This explains the
creation of an annual go-between forum in the Asia-Pacific area dedicated to both
academic researchers & industrial actors working on complex industrial systems
v
vi Preface
architecture, modeling & engineering. Facilitating their meeting was actually for us
a sine qua non condition in order to nurture and develop in the Asia-Pacific region
the new emerging science of systems.
The purpose of the conference on “Complex Systems Design & Management
Asia” (CSD&M Asia) is exactly to be such a forum. Its aim, in time, is to become
the Asia-Pacific academic–government–industrial conference of reference in the
field of complex industrial systems architecture and engineering. This is a quite
ambitious objective, that we think possible to achieve, based on the success of the
CSD&M conference in Paris since 2010 and in Singapore in 2014 and 2016.
Our Core Academic—Industrial Dimension
To make the CSD&M Asia conference a convergence point for academic, gov-
ernment, and industrial communities interested in complex industrial systems, we
based our organization on a principle of parity between academics, governmental
agents, and industrialists (see the conference organization sections). This principle
was first implemented as follows:
– Program Committee consisted of a mix between academics and governmental
agents/industrialists,
– Invited Speakers came from numerous professional environments.
The set of activities of the conference followed the same principle. They indeed
consist of a mixture of research seminars and experience sharing, academic articles,
governmental and industrial presentations, etc. The conference topics cover the
most recent trends in the emerging field of complex systems sciences and practices
from an industrial, governmental, and academic perspective, including the main
industrial and public domains (aeronautics & aerospace, defense & security, elec-
tronics & robotics, energy & environment, health & welfare services, media &
communications, software & e-services, transport, technology & policy), scientific
and technical topics (systems fundamentals, systems architecture & engineering,
systems metrics & quality, systems modeling tools), and system types (trans-
portation systems, embedded systems, software & information systems, systems of
systems, artificial ecosystems).
The Third CSD&M Asia 2018 Edition
The CSD&M Asia 2018 edition received 20 submitted papers, out of which the
Program Committee selected 9 regular papers to be published in the proceedings
edited by Springer-Verlag. This corresponds to a 45% acceptance ratio which
enables to guarantee the quality of the presentations.
Preface vii
Each submission was assigned to at least two Program Committee members,

who carefully reviewed the papers. These reviews were managed using the
EasyChair conference management system. Our sincere thanks go to Professor
Peter Jackson from Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD),
whose help was precious during this evaluation step.
We also invited eight outstanding speakers from various industrial, govern-
mental, and scientific background, who gave a series of invited talks covering all
the spectrum of the conference during the two days of CSD&M Asia 2018. The
conference was organized around a common topic: “Smart Transportation”. Each
day proposed mix invited keynote speakers’ presentations and contributed talks
(papers accepted by the Program Committee following the call for papers).
August 2018 Michel Alexandre Cardin

Daniel Hastings
Peter Jackson
Daniel Krob
Pao Chuen Lui
Gerhard Schmitt
Acknowledgements
Finally, we would like to thank all members of the Program and Organizing
Committees for their time, effort, and contributions to make CSD&M Asia 2018 a
top-quality conference. Special thanks are addressed to the CESAM Community
team (see http://cesam.community/en) and the National University of Singapore
who permanently and efficiently managed all the administration, logistics, and
communications of the CSD&M Asia 2018 conference.
The organizers of the conference are also grateful to all sponsors and partners
without whom CSD&M Asia 2018 would simply not exist.
ix
Organization
Conference Chairs
General Chairs
Daniel Krob Ecole Polytechnique & CESAMES, France

Pao Chuen Lui Adviser, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore
Organizing Committee Co-chairs
Michel Alexandre Cardin CESAMES Singapore

Daniel Hastings SMART, Singapore
Gerhard Schmitt SEC, Singapore
Program Committee Chair
Peter Jackson SUTD, Singapore
Program Committee
The Program Committee consists of 21 members (academic, industrial, and gov-

ernmental) who are personalities of high international visibility. Their expertise
spectrum covers all the conference topics. The members of this committee are in
charge of rating the submissions and selecting the best of them for the conference.
xi
xii Organization
Chair
Members
Steffen Blume SEC, Singapore

Petter Braathen Phoenix Consulting AS
Aakil Mohammad Caunhye NUS, Singapore
Wyean Chan Université de Montréal, Canada
Eng Seng Aaron Chia NUS, Singapore
Stefano Galelli SUTD, Singapore
Paulien Herder TU Delft, the Netherlands
Elizaveta Kuznetsova NUS, Singapore
Serge Landry Thales Solutions Asia, Singapore
Karthik Natarajan SUTD, Singapore
William Nuttall The Open University, UK
Ramakrishnan Raman INCOSE Asia-Oceania
Eng Yau Pee DSTA, Singapore
Yip Yew Seng INCOSE, Singapore
Afreen Siddiqi MIT, USA
Seiko Shirasaka Keio University, Japan
Kristin L. Wood SUTD, Singapore
Yixin Jiang NUS, Singapore
Sixiang Zhao NUS, Singapore
Organizing Committee
The Organizing Committee consists of 11 members (academic, industrial, and

governmental) in charge of the program and the logistical organization of the
conference.
Co-chairs
Michel Alexandre Cardin CESAMES Singapore

Gerhard Schmitt SEC, Singapore
Organization xiii
Members
Saik Hay Fong ST Engineering, Singapore

Hervé Jarry Thales Solutions Asia, Singapore
Daniel Krob Ecole Polytechnique & CESAMES, France
Serge Landry Thales Solutions Asia, Singapore
François Xavier Lannuzel IRT SystemX, Singapore
Pao Chuen Lui Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore
Yang How Tan DSTA, Singapore
Invited Speakers
Michael Gastner Assistant Professor for Mathematics, Computer

Science and Statistics, Yale-NUS College,
Singapore
Marta C. Gonzalez Associate Professor, UC Berkeley College of
Environmental Design, USA
Mun Leong Liew Chairman, Changi Airport Group, Singapore
Hoon Ping Ngien President, Land Transport Authority, Singapore
Yoshiaki Ohkami Executive Advisor for Institute of System Design
and Management, Keio University, Japan
Nelson Quek Head of Engineering Division, Port of Singapore
Authority, Singapore
Ravinder Singh President, Electronics, ST Engineering,
Singapore
Peng Yam Tan Chief Executive, DSTA, Singapore
Contents
A Net-Based Formal Framework for Causal Loop Diagrams . . . . . . . . . 1

Guillermina Cledou and Shin Nakajima
Modeling Operations of a Custom Hiring Center Using Agent Based
Modeling and Discrete Event Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Yatin Anil Jayawant and Nikhil Joshi
Modelling the Efficacy of Assurance Strategies for Better
Integration, Interoperability and Information Assurance
in Family-of-System-of-Systems Portfolios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Keith Joiner, Mahmoud Efatmaneshnik, and Malcolm Tutty
Multi-class Fleet Sizing and Mobility on Demand Service . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Malika Meghjani, Scott Drew Pendleton, Katarzyna Anna Marczuk,
You Hong Eng, Xiaotong Shen, Marcelo H. Ang Jr., and Daniela Rus
SMACOF Hierarchical Clustering to Manage Complex Design
Problems with the Design Structure Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Li Qiao, Mahmoud Efatmaneshnik, and Michael Ryan
Modelling Safe and Secure Cooperative Intelligent
Transport Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Giedre Sabaliauskaite, Jin Cui, Lin Shen Liew, and Fengjun Zhou
Detection of Teamwork Behavior as Meaningful Exploration
of Tradespace During Project Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Puay Siang Tan and Bryan R. Moser
Leveraging Data Analytics in Systems Engineering – Towards
a Quantum Leap in Railway Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Thaddeus Tsang, Joyce Hong, Mun Yih Wong, and Kum Fatt Ho
Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
xv
A Net-Based Formal Framework
for Causal Loop Diagrams
Guillermina Cledou1 and Shin Nakajima2(B)

1
HASLab INESCTEC & University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
mgc@inesctec.pt
2
National Institute of Informatics, Tokyo, Japan
nkjm@nii.ac.jp
Abstract. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) are a modeling tool employed

in Business Dynamics. Such a diagram consists of many tightly cou-
pled loops to capture dynamic behavior of systems. Intuitive operational
semantics, describing how changes are propagated among the loops, pro-
vide a basis for model animation or manual inspection. They are, how-
ever, not precise enough to enable automated property checking. This
paper proposes and defines a net-based formal framework, showing true
concurrency, so that automated analysis is made possible.
1 Introduction
Smart transportation is a strategic area to focus on enabling sustainable societies.

Managing such large-scale complex systems is mandatory, which needs their
modeling from various viewpoints. Ontology captures common vocabulary with
its focus on structural aspects of domain concepts (e.g. [2]). System Dynamics
(SD) approach is elucidating dynamic behavior (e.g. [9]). The two approaches are
complementary, and dynamics are often complex and tightly coupled implicitly,
leading to unknown deficiencies. Removing vulnerabilities is essential to avoid
normal accidents [8]. For example, safety analysis in Aerospace engineering [5]
is one successful application of SD to study how to prevent disastrous accidents.
Modeling dynamic behavior of systems may start with qualitative causal
loop diagrams (CLDs) followed by a quantitative Stock-Flow approach [10]. A
CLD illustrates causal links between concepts, and brings out mental images of
various stakeholders involved, describing system structure and a hypothesis on its
dynamic behavior. A modeling goal is representing complex systems, and thus a
straight forward style of constructing a whole CLD is infeasible. Building a CLD
is a part of an iterative modeling process, and involves trial-and-error steps,
interleaving of description and analysis, before obtaining a satisfactory CLD.
Because a CLD is basically representing dynamic behavior, manual inspection
is cumbersome as a CLD becomes large. Automated analysis tools can bring
great benefits at reduced cost, which is recognized well in modeling of software
at an abstract level [3]. Unfortunately, definitions of CLD [10] are not precise
c Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

M. A. Cardin et al. (Eds.): CSD&M 2018, AISC 878, pp. 1–12, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02886-2_1
2 G. Cledou and S. Nakajima
enough to enable systematic automated analysis such as model checking [1,7].

This hinders from adapting a tool-supported iterative process of building CLDs.
The present paper proposes a new net-based formal framework, causal loop
net (CLN), as a basis of formal representation and analysis of CLD. CLN is
inspired by Petri-nets [6], especially CP-nets [4], because of their true concur-
rency characteristics, but introduces notions of abstractions to take into account
the qualitative nature of CLD. Main contributions of this paper are introducing
a new net-based formal framework CLN, and demonstrating the ideas with a
proof-of-concept (PoC) tool written in Scala.
The reminder of the paper is organized as follow. Sections 2 and 3 recall CLDs
and Petri-nets. Section 4 summarizes issues and our approach to solving them.
Section 5 proposes a formal definition of CLN, and then Sect. 6 discusses ways
to specify properties to check. Section 7 demonstrates example cases. Section 8
concludes the paper.
2 Causal Loop Diagrams

2.1 Diagram Representation
Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are a modeling tool to qualitatively represent feed-
back control systems of non-linear dynamics (Chap. 5 in [10]). A CLD illustrates
variables connected via causal links to form loops. Each causal link refers to a
fact that a source variable affects a variable at a destination end. Causal links
are annotated with either a positive (+) or negative (−) polarity.
Fig. 1. Three basic components
CLD offers three basic components. Figure 1(a) is a loop in which two con-
nected variables reinforce each other; if Var1 increases, then Var2 increases, and
similarly for cases of decreasing. Figure 1(b) illustrates a situation where two
variables Difference and Var are balancing; if Var increases, then Difference
decreases because of the negative polarity on the link, and similarly for cases
of decreasing Var. A balancing loop represents a negative feedback. Figure 1(c)
is an example component to have a delay annotation on a causal link between
Action and Var. Changes are not propagated immediately, but deferred, which
gives systems inertia, posing much effects on dynamics. These basic components
are combined to form large loops to represent complex system dynamics. Figure 2
is an example to have feedback control on a variable WP via two loops.
A Net-Based Formal Framework for Causal Loop Diagrams 3
Productivity (PD)
Assignment
Rate (AR) + Work +
Calendar Completion
Time (CT) Assignment
Rate (WCR)
Backlog (AB)
+
Time +
+ Remaining
Work
(TR)
Pressure (WP)
Due Date (DD) Effort Devoted
to Assignments
(EDA)
Workweek
+ (WW)
Fig. 2. An example composed loop (Figs. 5–21 in [10])
2.2 Informal Semantics
Structural aspects of a CLD are basically captured by a four-tuple V, I, , τ .

V is a finite set of variable names, and I is an initialization relation. and
τ , representing causal links, are transfer relations of V × P olarity × V where
def
P olarity = {+, −}. are simple causal links while τ are those with a delay
annotation. They are disjoint; ∩ τ = ∅. Elements of Polarity are sign(∂vd /∂vs )
when a causal link directs toward a destination vd from a source vs (vd , vs ∈ V ).
Dynamic behavior of a CLD is a set of possible sequences of fired transfer
relations. Let St be a set of enabled transfer relations at a time point t in a
global time-line. Enabled transfer relations can be fired to propagate changes in
a source variable to a destination. Get such a relation r from St . If r ∈ , r is
fired immediately to propagate changes according to the above mentioned rules
on the polarity. If r ∈ τ , r is rewritten to an form, and is added to St+d for a
certain d (d > 0). It effectively makes r to be fired after passing d ticks; namely
r is delayed.
CLD defines a notion of being fired in an intuitive manner. Tentatively we
may have a naive view of starting with initialized terminal source variables and
tracing changes in all the variables along causal links. As a number of causal
links together with variables becomes large, inspecting these changes manually
is cumbersome. Although, for example, the CLD of Fig. 3 in [9] is not large,
how the variables change their values is not intuitively clear. Some automated
analysis methods are desirable.
3 Net-Based Formal Frameworks
Petri-nets [6] is a net-based formal framework for modeling concurrent systems.

A Petri-net is a weighted directed bipartite graph, P, T, F, W, M0 . P is a finite
set of places, and T is a finite set of transitions, both of which constitute nodes
of a graph. F is a flow, a subset of (P × T ) ∪ (T × P ), describing edges between
nodes. W is a weight function1 F −→N . M0 is an initial marking discussed
1
N is a set of Natural Number and N0 includes 0.
below. A place can hold more than one token and thus is a multi-set or a bag
of tokens. Tokens are indistinguishable with each other. Figure 3 illustrates a
simple example Petri-net, actually a Place/Transition net (PT-net), in which •
refers to a token.
t0 t1 t4
p0
p1 p2 p3
t2 t3
Fig. 3. Petri net
Dynamic behavior of a PT-net is defined in terms of markings. Let M (p) rep-

resent a multi-set of tokens at a place p. Informally, a transition t is fired when its
input places contain enough number of tokens to enable the transition. Further-
more, more than one transition can be fired at the same time. It is referred to as
true concurrency, which can be compared with interleaving semantics adapted
in most of concurrent computation models.
Figure 3 shows a simple example PT-net2 shows that an initial marking M0 =
{p0 → {| • |}}. Transitions of markings, starting from M0 , constitute reachability
graphs, which are basis of analyzing dynamical aspects of PT-net. Reachability
graphs are graphs of markings, and thus are called marking graphs in this paper.
In the example PT-net in Fig. 3, starting with M0 , the transitions t0 and
t1 can fire consecutively. A resulting new marking (M2 = {p2 → {| • |}})
may enable two transitions t2 and t3. The two are in conflict; namely, only
one of them can fire even if both are enabled. Assume that t3 is fired, which
leads to M4 = {p2 → {| •, • |}} after firing t4 whose output edge has a
weight annotation of 2. As this M4 has two tokens, two enabled transitions
t2 and t3 can fire at the same time, showing true concurrency. This results in
M5 = {p1 → {| • |}, p3 → {| • |}}. A transition sequence may continue to a
situation where M9 = {p2 → {| •, •, • |}}. The number of tokens is increasing.
This PT-net is unbounded, and its reachability graphs are infinite.
Apart from the basic PT-net, various high-level Petri-nets have been pro-
posed so far, including Coloured Petri Nets (or CP-nets) [4]. CP-nets can work
on colored tokens. Tokens with different colors are distinguishable, and transi-
tions may have guard conditions on token colors; only tokens with a certain color
can enable such transitions. Intuitively, a marking in CP-nets M is partitioned
into color-indexed markings M c . Occurrence graphs of CP-nets are defined sim-
ilar to reachability graphs of PT-nets.
Note that analysis methods using either reachability graphs or matrix-
equations are studied for PT-nets [6]. Flow of tokens can be represented uni-
formly with matrix-equations, because tokens are indistinguishable. However,
2
This is an infinite capacity net, in which each place can hold any number of tokens.
analyzing CP-nets is possible only with occurrence graphs [4] because tokens
with different colors are distinct.
4 Abstractions Qualitatively
CLD represents system dynamics qualitatively, and introducing qualitative

abstractions is one of key issues. We will study abstractions from three view-
points.
4.1 Qualitative Values

As presented in Sect. 2, variables do not take values, but represent qualitatively
an increase or a decrease. We, however, introduce a notion of values that a
variable can take, to make defining operational semantics easy.
Firstly, we view that a variable vX in CLD may stand for δX of an accompa-
nying hypothetical variable X. Secondly, we introduce a set Q to be {up, down},
def
and an extension Q̂ = Q ∪ {none}. The values up and down refer to an increase
and a decrease respectively, and none stands for being unknown or no change. A
function rev , of Q̂ −→ Q̂, is defined such that rev(up) = down, rev(down) = up,
and rev(none) = none.
For a variable v ∈ V , [[ ]] is a dereference function, of V −→Q̂. An element in
an initialization I specifies an initial value of a variable vi ([[vi ]] ∈ Q). Variables
not appeared in I take none as their initial values. Transfer relations specify how
a value in a source vs is transferred to a destination vd , and an annotated polarity
affects the transferred values. With [[vs ]] ∈ Q, the equations below illustrates how
the polarity acts in the transfer.
[[ vd ]] = [[ vs ]] if (vs , +, vd ), [[ vd ]] = rev([[ vs ]]) if (vs , −, vd )
Each element of Q̂ may be encoded as a distinct color if we use CP-nets as a

formal framework to encode CLDs. CLD may be encoded as a kind of CP-nets.
4.2 True Concurrency and AMAN Strategy
As presented in Sect. 3, Petri-nets, either CP-nets or PT-nets, can represent

true concurrency in a faithful manner. However, the example scenario of Fig. 3
illustrates a situation that places may have an infinite number of tokens, which
is clearly not desirable from a view point of automated analysis methods. This
infiniteness comes from characteristics of tokens in Petri-nets.
Tokens in Petri-nets can have more than one role. Firstly, a token is represent-
ing a computation thread, and thus multiple tokens can refer to multi-threaded
computations. Secondly, a token is a single computing resource, and moving a
token from a place to another illustrates a situation where an existing resource
is consumed at a source place and a new one is produced at a destination.
CLD is abstract, and does not have any notion of computing resources, but
its true concurrency aspects are essential. This observation leads to an idea
that we duplicate tokens as many as needed, which might be called an AMAN
strategy in this paper, so as to satisfy desirable degrees of concurrency. While
a place in Petri-nets is a multi-set of tokens, we use a set of tokens instead. In
addition, we adapt an AMAN strategy to duplicate tokens in a place (p) to fire
all transitions connected outwards from p. Note that with an AMAN strategy, no
conflict occurs (cf. Fig. 3). We abstract multi-sets of tokens to be sets of tokens,
which ignores the computing resource aspects of tokens. CLN is different from
CP-nets.
4.3 Non-deterministic Delay
Delay is quantitative in nature (Chap. 11 in [10]). A delayed causal link in qual-

itative CLD is an abstraction of stock of quantitative Stock-Flow models. Intro-
ducing a delay distinguishes an event of writing values to a stock from another
event of reading values. Because these two events are distinct, not occurred at
the same time, CLD adapts an abstraction such that transfer values is delayed,
but a delay is not accompanied with any quantitative amount of time.
Delay makes much effects on a possible transition sequences, and thus on
dynamic behavior of CLD [10]. Intuitively, when a particular causal link td is
annotated with delay (τ ), the link is not fired immediately even if true con-
currency semantics allow firing the transition transfer of td . Now, compare two
cases where a particular transition t is in τ (delay) and it is in (simple). Pos-
sible transition sequences of the second simple case is different from the first.
Firing t, in the first delay case, appears later in transition sequences than the
second. Furthermore, such transition sequences involving delayed td might be
different for different quantitative amount of delay times. As CLD does not refer
to quantitative values, we are not able to specify particular situations selectively.
We introduce a notion of non-deterministic delay time as an abstraction.
Given an arbitrary upper bound dupper ∈ N , we choose a delay time d
(d < dupper ) in a non-deterministic manner when constructing marking graphs.
Marking graphs obtained in this way are different for different chosen values of
d. Covering all possible cases is impossible, and thus their dynamic behavior is
under approximation, namely searching in a part of all possible sequences only.
5 Causal Loop Nets
Causal loop net (CLN) is a directed bipartite graph that we propose in this paper
as a formal framework of CLD. CLN is structurally isomorphic to CLD (Fig. 4),
in which places of CLN correspond to variables of CLD. We may consider CLN
as an internal representation of CLD; modelers need not care about CLN.
Var0
+ + +
Var0 +
+ +
Var1 Var2 Var3 Var1 Var2 Var3
+
+
(a) CLD Example (b) Translated CLN
Fig. 4. CDL and CLN
5.1 Formal Definitions
A CLN is a six-tuple D over T oken, D = P, T, F, τ, ν, M0 . P and T are finite

sets of places and transitions respectively, and F ⊂ (P × T ) ∪ (T × P ). τ is a
polarity annotation, T −→{+, −}. ν is a delay annotation, T −→N0 . M0 stands
for an initial marking, which will be explained below. For a transition t, a set of
input places • t and a set of output places t• are defined.
•
t = { p | (p, t) ∈ F }, t• = { p | (t, p) ∈ F }
Tokens in CLD are either basic tokens or delay tokens; BasicToken = {↑, ↓} and
DelayToken = {↑d , ↓d } for d ∈ N , where ↑ is up and ↓ is down. We introduce
a whole set of tokens Token to be BasicToken ∪ DelayToken ∪ { }, where is
none. d in ↑d or ↓d refers to an amount of delay if d > 0. For a technical reason,
we assume the relationships that x0 = x for a token x; namely, ↑0 = ↑ and
↓0 = ↓. Intuitively, a delay token xd decreases its amount one as ticks proceed,
reaching x0 to contribute enabling of transitions because x0 = x. Now, Token
can be simplified to be {↑e , ↓e , } for e ∈ N0 . A marking M is P → 2T oken .
Given a marking M , a transition t is enabled if its all input places have tokens
other than (none). Thus, a set of enabled transition is

T (M ) = { t ∈ T | p∈• t M (p) ∩ {↑e , ↓e } = ∅ }
T (M ) may have more than one transition, which ensures that CLN is a formal
framework allowing true concurrency.
5.2 Dynamic Behavior
Dynamic behavior of a CLN is captured by an associated marking graph, which

T (M )
changes in markings (M −→ M ) define. Given a set of enabled transitions
T (M ), M (p) for all places p in P is defined below, denoting overriding.

M (p) = M (p) ( t∈T (M ) • Δ(p, t) ∪ •
t∈T (M ) Δ (t, p))
where • Δ and Δ• are of F −→ 2T oken . Recall that F ⊂ (P × T ) ∪ (T × P ).

•
Δ(p, t) removes all the tokens in M (p) and leaves delay tokens whose residual
time is decremented by one.

•
Δ(p, t) = Decr(x)
x∈M (p)
Decr(x) makes use of the relation that ↑ = ↑0 and ↓ = ↓0 .

{ xe−1 } if e>0
Decr(xe ) : T oken −→ 2T oken =
∅ if e=0
Δ• (t, p) adds tokens
calculated according to the polarity τ (t), where M (• t) is

an abbreviation of p ∈• t M (p ).

Δ• (t, p) = Xfer(x)
x∈M (• t)
Xfer(x) assumes, for simplicity, that ν(t) = 0 if a causal link is not marked delay.

{ xν(t) } if τ (t) = +
Xfer(x) : T oken −→ 2 T oken
=
{ rev(xν(t) ) } if τ (t) = −
T (M )
The transition relationship M −→ M may lead to a situation where, for a
certain p, {p → ↑, p → ↓} ∈ M occurs. Such a marking is inconsistent in that
it assigns two tokens ↑ and ↓ to a place p at the same time. PN G is a subset of
def
P to contain those inconsistent places; PN G = { p | {↑, ↓} ⊆ M (p) }.
The inconsistency demonstrates a situation where both cases, p with ↑ and
p with ↓ are possible for ∀p∈PN G . Therefore, two cases are to be explored non-
deterministically3 . An auxiliary function N r constructs consistent markings by
dividing an inconsistent marking into two cases.

N r(M [p → D(p, ↑)]) ∪ N r(M [p → D(p, ↓)]) if p ∈ PN G
N r(M ) =
{M } if PN G = ∅
where D(p, x) = (M (p) ∩ {↑d , ↓d }) ∪ {x}(d > 0). Now that P ost(M ) is a set
of consistent markings reached directly from M when inconsistent markings are
considered.
T (M )
P ost(M ) = { M | M =⇒ M ∧ M ∈ N r(M )}
Given a CLD D, a marking graph G D of a CLN is a tuple N ode, n0 , Edge,

where n0 is an initial node representing the initial marking M0 , Edge is a set
of transition relations M =⇒M for M ∈ P ost(M ), and N ode consists of all
markings reached from M0 via Edge. G D is finite in particular.
6 Formal Analysis
Once a marking graph is obtained for a given CLN or CLD equivalently, we can
conduct formal analyses to study the CLN from various ways.
3
This makes it difficult to define matrix-equations for CLN.
6.1 Verification Problems

As explained before, a place of CLN represents a variable in CLD. Since a node n
in G D is a marking, [[n.v]], a value of variable v at node n, is M (v) and [[n.v]]∈Q̂.
Delay tokens, ↑d or ↓d , are identified with (none) as values, because they are
transient and do not any definite values.
Let T raceD be a set of all possible transition sequences σi generated by G D
starting from n0 ; T raceD = { σi }. σi (r) is an r-th node in σi , and σi (r..s) is
a transition sequence starting with σi (r) and ending with σi (s). In particular,
σi (0) is n0 for any sequence.
A verification problem is to check whether at least one transition sequence
exists in T raceD to satisfy a given property Φ taking into account simulation
relations ∼.
∃σi ∈ T raceD : Φ(σi ) mod ∼
The simulation relation ∼ is either ∼1 or ∼2 below.

N −1
∼1 :Q̂N ←→ Q is q(q|none) ∼1 q for q ∈ Q,
and ∼2 :Q̂N ←→ Q̂ is q N ∼2 q for q ∈ Q̂.
Adapting simulation relations makes it easy to write properties to be checked.

Transition sequences σi are of seq(Q̂). Because q ∈ Q̂ does not refer to a quan-
titative, concrete value, identifying N consecutive q (q N ) with just a q does not
make much effects on qualitative characteristics of sequences. Namely, q can be
a summary of q N . Simulation relation of the first type (∼1 ) provides a way to
use Q as a basis for this summary, while the second (∼2 ) is using Q̂ instead. We
will see how two simulation relations are effective in Sect. 7.
6.2 Some Query Patterns

We introduce a few typical properties to be checked, all of which take a form of
queries on T raceD . A finite mapping f of [0, k − 1]−→Q for a k ∈ N is called
a summary function when f describes desired sequences of a CLD variable. A
predicate ϕ0 (i, r, v, f ) becomes true if there is at least one transition sequence
σi in T raceD whose subsequence starting with r and ending with s satisfies the
condition that a sequence of values generated by a variable v in D is simulated
by a given summary function f .
k−1
ϕ0 (i, r, v, f ) = j=0 ∃sj+1 . (σi (sj .. sj+1 ).v ∼ f (j))
where k = |f | (length of f ), r = s0 and s = sk .

Some properties employ ϕ0 (i, r, v, f ) to define themselves. Firstly, ϕ1 (v, f )
returns true if there is a transition sequence σi to have a subsequence of a
certain length in which the specified variable v is simulated by a given summary
function f .
ϕ1 (v, f ) = ∃i, r : ϕ0 (i, r, v, f )
Secondly, Φ3 (ϕ1 (v m , f ), v , g ) is true if a summary function of a variable v

(m = ) is simulated by g in a transition sequence that ϕ1 (v m , f ) satisfies;
g (X) = ∃s. σi (r .. s).v .
Intuitively, Φ3 extracts a sequence of v values along a transition sequence that

v m satisfies f . Therefore, we can compare how two variables, v m and v , change
their values in an obtained interval of r and s.
7 Examples
Figure 5 shows two marking graph examples generated with a Scala-based PoC
tool using Graphviz4 for preparing graphical images. Figure 5(a) is the one for
the CLD in Fig. 4. Figure 5(b) is simple because of no inconsistent marking
(PN G = ∅). In these graphs, 1, 0 and -1 stands for ↑, and ↓ respectively.
n0
n0
n1
n1 n2
n3
n2
n4
n5
n3
n6
n4 n7
n8
n5 n9
(a) CLD in Figure 4 (b) CLD in Figure 2
Fig. 5. Marking graphs
Each node in the graph of Fig. 5(a) refers to variable values in a form of
Var1, Var2, Var3, Var0. The graph is the one starting with an initial marking
of M0 = {Var0 → ↑}. The prototype PoC tool accepts a CLD in a textual
form. The CLD in Fig. 4 is, for example, entered as below.
var netF4 = newclpn ++ (
4 >+ 1,
1 >+ 2,
2 >- 1,
2 >+ 3,
3 >+ 2
) initMark((4, Set(1))
4
http://viz-js.com.
The numbers are representing CLD variables. 4 stands for Var0 whose initial
value is 1 (namely ↑) as specified by initMark((4, Set(1)).
We check whether G D satisfies ϕ1 (Var2, f Var2 ) modulo ∼1 where f Var2 =
(↑ ↑). For this, ϕ1 (Var2, f Var2 ) is f alse because the graph does not have any
sequence with consecutive ↑s. Alternatively, if we choose f Var2 to be (↓ ↑), we
actually find transition sequences σi (5 ..), some of which are shown here. Var3
changes its value along each transition sequence.
σ1 (5 .. 8) = n4 n5 n2 n3 (σ1 (5..8)).v Var3 = ↓ ↑

σ2 (5 .. 10) = n4 n5 n4 n5 n2 n3 (σ2 (5..10)).v Var3 = ↓ ↓ ↑
σ3 (5 .. 10) = n4 n5 n2 n3 n2 n3 (σ3 (5..10)).v Var3 = ↓ ↑ ↑
σ4 (5 .. 12) = n4 n5 n4 n5 n2 n3 n2 n3 (σ4 (5..12)).v Var3 = ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑
A summary function g Var3 modulo ∼1 for all the above will be (↓ ↑), which
provides little information. On the other hand, if we use ∼2 , the summary func-
n1 n2
tion g Var3 becomes (( ↓) ( ↑) ) for n1, n2∈[1, 2]. This scenario illustrates
that the ∼1 is appropriate when we extract transition sequences by means of
f Var2 , and that the ∼2 is useful in searching for summary functions of g Var3
because the obtained sequences has detailed information. We may choose g Var3
n1 n2
as ( ↓) ( ↑) for Φ3 (ϕ1 (Var2, (↓ ↑)), Var3, g Var3 ) to be satisfied modulo ∼2 .
8 Concluding Remarks
Petri-nets have a large body of work [6], from introducing high level Petri-nets
such as CP-net, to studying subclasses of PT-nets in view of behavioral or struc-
tural characteristics. Causal Loop Net (CLN) is unique in that our approach
is introducing qualitative abstractions into a Petri-net family of formal frame-
works. CLN provides a formal basis of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) to enable
formal analysis in terms of marking graphs. Query patterns, although not gen-
eral enough, are useful in tool-assisted inspections as demonstrated with our PoC
tool. The proposed CLN enables adapting a tool-supported iterative process of
building CLDs.
Our future plan includes developing a robust tool that can work on large
CLDs, studying pros and cons of the proposed abstraction method for delay,
and adapting logic model checking methods [1] for formal analyses.
Acknowledgements. The first author conducted the reported work at NII under NII-
Internship Program 2017-1 call. This work is a result of project SmartEGOV/NORTE-
01-0145-FEDER-000037, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Pro-
gramme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through
the European Regional Development Fund (EFDR). Additional support is provided by
the PT-FLAD Chair on Smart Cities & Smart Governance. The second author is par-
tially supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP17H01726.
References
1. Clarke, E.M., Grumberg, O., Peled, D.A.: Model Checking. The MIT Press, Cam-
bridge (1999)
2. Cledou, G., Barbosa, L.: An ontology for licensing public transport services. In:
Proceedings of the 9th ICEGOV, pp. 230–239 (2016)
3. Jackson, D., Wing, J.: Lightweight formal methods. IEEE Comput. 29(4), 21–22
(1996)
4. Jensen, K.: Coloured Petri Net. Springer, Heidelberg (1996)
5. Leveson, N.G.: Engineering a Safer World: Systems Thinking Applied to Safety.
The MIT Press, Cambridge (2011)
6. Murata, T.: Petri nets: properties, analysis and applications. Proc. IEEE 77(4),
541–580 (1989)
7. Nakajima, S.: Model checking of energy consumption behavior. In: Proceedings of
the 1st CSD&M-Asia, pp. 3–14 (2014)
8. Perrow, C.: Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies. Princeton Uni-
versity Press, Princeton (1999)
9. Shepherd, S.P.: A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation.
Transp. B Transp. Dyn. 2(2), 83–105 (2014)
10. Sterman, J.D.: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex
World. Irwin McGraw-Hill, Boston (2000)
Modeling Operations of a Custom Hiring Center
Using Agent Based Modeling and Discrete Event
Simulation
Yatin Anil Jayawant ✉ and Nikhil Joshi

( )
Asia Technology Innovation Center, John Deere India Pvt. Ltd.,

Tower 14, Magarpatta City, Hadapsar, Pune 411013, India
{jayawantyatin,joshinikhil}@johndeere.com
Abstract. Custom Hiring Centers (CHCs) for agricultural equipment and serv‐
ices are being promoted by the Government of India and various state govern‐
ments. CHCs are important part of the complex agricultural system. They are
beneficial to the community as small and marginal farmers, instead of having to
purchase costly machines, can rent the machines as needed. Key factors that affect
profitability are the type and number of equipment hosted by the CHC. Each piece
of equipment entails a sunk cost as well as maintenance cost. However, since
most agricultural operations are time sensitive, the demand is concentrated in
time, and having too few pieces of equipment would entail inability to serve the
demand and lost revenue. This paper presents a model to simulate the operations
of a CHC, under varying scenarios, in order to estimate its profitability. The model
uses a combination of Agent Based Modeling (ABM) and Discrete Event Simu‐
lation (DES) approaches. Farmers and equipment are modelled as the agents in
the system while the CHC operations are modelled using DES approach. The use
of the model is also demonstrated with the help of an example. The results showed
that even for one combination of equipment, the profitability varies a lot. This
significant variation in profitability arises from variation in the percentages of
areas under different types of crop, as well as the inherent variation in crop growth
rates, readiness of individual fields for particular operations within the seasonal
window, as well as propensity of individual farmers to wait for CHC equipment
if not immediately available. Results also demonstrate that simulation is useful
to model CHC operations in a complex agricultural system and take informed
decision about number and types of equipment to buy.
Keywords: Complex agricultural system

Farm machinery Custom Hiring Center (CHC) · Product mix
Agent Based Modeling (ABM) · Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model
Agricultural economics · Break even analysis · Agricultural start-up
Farm mechanization · Farm machinery services
Farm machinery costs · Multimethod modeling
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

M. A. Cardin et al. (Eds.): CSD&M 2018, AISC 878, pp. 13–24, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02886-2_2
14 Y. A. Jayawant and N. Joshi
1 Introduction
A Custom Hiring Center (CHC), in the context of agricultural equipment, refers to a

company or an individual that owns a fleet of equipment and provides equipment (or
specific services using those equipment) on rent to farmers as needed. The main
advantage of CHCs is that they enable small and marginal farmers, who can’t afford to
buy equipment outright, reap the benefits of mechanization. Hiremath et al. [1] found
that productivity and income of small and marginal farmers increased 10–15% after
using machines provided by CHC. CHCs also help in effective use of otherwise expen‐
sive machines.
While the benefits of CHCs for small and marginal farmers are accepted, many such
centers have struggled to keep their operations profitable. Hiremath et al. [1] also
reported that economic utilization of machines in most of the CHCs surveyed was very
low. They also found that net returns were also very low, averaging only INR 8822/-
($132.33) per year. In another study Srinivasarao et al. [2] provided information on about
100 CHCs situated in climatically affected regions across India. The farm implements
owned by these centers varied from four to 31, and revenue generated varied from nil
to INR 145,000/- ($2175) per year. The factors considered to affect revenue generation
were equipment selection, center management and socio-economic conditions of the
farmers. Sidhu and Vatta [3] conducted a study in Punjab, India to evaluate contribution
of Cooperative Agro Machinery Service Centers (AMSCs). Of the total farmers
surveyed, 73% farmers suggested to increase machines at AMSCs to have timely avail‐
ability during peak season. Chahal et al. [4] surveyed 100 Cooperative Agro-Service
Centers (CASCs) in order to examine their role in institutionalization of custom hiring
services in Punjab, India. They found that there was a vast difference between minimum
and maximum profits of CASCs, from INR 2,000 ($30) and INR 770,000 ($11550) in
2008–09 to INR 30,000 ($450) and INR 667,570 ($10013) in 2011–12. Though the
authors did not specifically mention reasons behind such a difference, they acknowl‐
edged the role of farm size, labor availability and custom services, crop selection and
cultural practices on the selection of optimum equipment set and number of equipment.
The increase in income over the years was owing to the subsidy given by the government.
Equipment selection while setting up a CHC involves deciding the types of equip‐
ment, as well as the number of equipment of each type. The type of equipment is gener‐
ally decided based on the needs of the crops, soils, and agricultural practices of the
particular region. However, deciding the number of equipment of each type is a chal‐
lenging task. Each additional item entails an upfront cost, as well as costs for mainte‐
nance and upkeep. However, since most agricultural operations are time sensitive, the
demand for particular equipment or services is concentrated in small periods. Having
fewer numbers of any type may entail inability to serve the demand and consequently
lost revenue. Thus, the optimal number to purchase depends on a combination of factors
that vary for each type of equipment.
A number of studies have been completed to understand economics of owning or oper‐
ating agricultural machinery. Kamboj et al. [5] have studied seven CHCs and calculated
Break Even Point in terms of hours per year of various machines. They also noted the type
of equipment and minimum investment needed to be profitable. Paman et al. [6] conducted
Modeling Operations of a Custom Hiring Center 15
research to analyze cost, profit and break-even of power thresher hiring services in Kampar
Regency, Indonesia. They calculated the break-even point in terms of seasonal work (kg) for
different custom hiring rates. Schular and Frank [7] provided equipment life tables along
with a worksheet to calculate fixed and operating costs for different machines/equipment.
Microsoft Excel worksheets for estimating machinery costs have been created and provided
by universities [8] and governments. Singh and Mehta [9] presented a decision support
system for calculating the total operating cost and break-even units of farm machinery.
There are also examples from other domains where authors have studied entire fleet
of equipment for optimizing number suitable for the purpose. Maisenbacher et al. [10]
proposed the use of Agent-Based Modeling to determine the minimum number of
resources (e-bikes) required to serve the rental needs of a particular area. Eid [11]
proposed a technique called General Utility Simulation System (GUSS) to find out
optimum number of vehicles in a service-equipment fleet. Cook [12] in his report for
North Carolina Department of Transportation, has done extensive literature study on
fleet optimization and devised a spreadsheet based tool to assess relative vehicle use and
productivity assessment.
In this paper, we present an approach using a combination of Agent Based Modeling
and Discrete Event Simulation to simulate the operations of a CHC given a particular
fleet of equipment, and information about the context, such as number of potential
customers, time window for specific operations, etc. The simulation is used to estimate
the cash flow, and consequently the profit, for the CHC over the period of the simulation.
The simulation model is developed using AnyLogic, a multimethod simulation software.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Sect. 2 explains the modeling
approach, including considerations and assumptions. Section 3 demonstrates the use of
the model with the help of an example. Section 4 presents a summary of the work done,
along with some insights and directions for further research.
2 Modeling Approach
As discussed in Sect. 1, the primary purpose of the model is to estimate the profitability
of a CHC for a given fleet of equipment. Thereupon different options of fleet sizes can
be simulated to choose the size that is likely to be profitable.
In case of CHC, profit is complex function of factors like Crop (cropping pattern,
time windows of operations, etc.), Geography (fuel cost, population/customer base,
landholding, etc.), equipment parameters (number of equipment, their initial price,
rental, field capacity, fuel consumption, etc.), admin cost, and other factors like farmers’
patience in getting resources, etc. In the model, profit is calculated by subtracting
expenses from revenue, over period of simulation. Where, revenue is obtained by multi‐
plying custom hiring rate (rent) of all equipment with their working time. Expenses are
categorized in three types viz. CHC admin cost, self-propelled and implement expenses.
Self-propelled equipment (e.g. Tractors) expenses include repair & maintenance, taxes,
insurance & housing, interest, and fuel cost (Fuel price * Fuel consumption * working
time). Implement expenses include repair & maintenance, taxes, insurance & housing
and interest. Machine working time depends on the number of customers/farmers
16 Y. A. Jayawant and N. Joshi
availing services, their landholding, their patience in getting the machine, time window
of operation and machine’s field capacity.
The model comprises of two main entities, viz. the Custom Hiring Center and a
population of farmers (or customers) that rents equipment/services from the center. A
set or resource pool is maintained for each type of equipment provided by the center.
Equipment are modeled as Agents of type “Tractor” and “Implement”. Each “Tractor”
and “Implement” has associated economic parameters, such as price, maintenance costs,
running costs, diesel consumption rate, etc. A “Tractor” also has some operating param‐
eters, such as its field capacity (i.e. the amount of area it can service per unit time). The
“Tractor” and “Implement” behavior is simple, as it merely switches between “idle and
available” and “working” states. A schedule of operating hours is defined for each set
of equipment or resource pool, which constrains the equipment from being issued for
use outside of working hours, even if the equipment is in the “idle and available” state.
The actual day to day operation of the CHC is modelled using a discrete event simu‐
lation model, similar to models used for manufacturing process simulations. The process
model is shown in Fig. 1. The current model is built for a CHC that provides four types
of services, although the methodology can be extended to any number of services. When
any request for service is received by the CHC, it is placed in one of the four queues
(denoted by the “seizeXX” stages in Fig. 1) based on the type of service requested. The
requests are served on a first come first served basis. The CHC may require one or more
types of equipment to provide the service. Thus, when a request arrives at the head of
the queue, it is issued the required equipment if and only if the required pieces of equip‐
ment are in the “idle and available” state and current time is within the working hours.
Otherwise, the request continues to remain in queue until the conditions are met. The
model also allows for a request to exit the queue without being serviced (as explained
in farmer behavior in the following paragraphs). Once the pieces of equipment are
issued, the request is considered to be in the process of being serviced (this is shown by
“delayXX” stages in Fig. 1). The respective pieces of equipment are also placed in the
“working” state. The time for which the request remains in this stage depends upon the
size of the field where the service is requested and the field capacity of the equipment.
Upon completion of this time, the request is advanced to the completed stage and the
respective pieces of equipment are returned to the “idle and available” state. As can be
inferred, the number of requests that may be simultaneously serviced is constrained by
the number of equipment, of the types required for the request, held by the CHC. A
rental rate is also defined for each type of service. During the simulation, the rental rate
and duration of service is used to calculate revenue for the CHC.
The economic information for each piece of equipment as well as its utilization are
used to calculate fixed expenses (such as down-payment on purchase, monthly install‐
ments, maintenance, etc.) as well as variable expenses (such as fuel consumption and
consumables) for the CHC. Additional expenses for storage and administration are also
calculated to continuously estimate the cash flow for the CHC over the entire simulation.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
No doubt, Caleb profoundly agreed with this characterisation of
Letizia, held he up never so plump a protestant hand.
“Oh, do give your consent to our marriage,” he gurgled. “I know
that there is a difference of religion. But I have ventured to think once
or twice that you could overlook that difference. I have remarked
sometimes that you did not appear to attach very great importance to
your religion. I’ve even ventured to pray that you might come in time
to perceive the errors of Romanism. In fact, I have dreamed more
than once, ma’am, that you were washed in the blood of the Lamb.
However, do not imagine that I should try to influence Letizia to
become one of the Peculiar Children of God. I love her too dearly,
ma’am, to attempt any persuasion. From a business point of view—
and, after all, in these industrious times it is the business point of
view which is really important—from a business point of view the
match would not be a very bad one. I have a few humble savings,
the fruit of my long association with you in your enterprises.”
Caleb paused a moment and took a deep breath. He had reached
the critical point in his temptation of Madame Oriano, and he tried to
put into his tone the portentousness that his announcement seemed
to justify.
“Nor have I been idle in my spare time, ma’am. No, I have devoted
much of that spare time to study. I have been rewarded, ma’am. God
has been very good to me and blessed the humble talent with which
he entrusted me. Yes, ma’am. I have discovered a method of using
chlorate of potash in combination with various other chemicals which
will undoubtedly revolutionise the whole art of pyrotechny. Will you
consider me presumptuous, ma’am, when I tell you that I dream of
the moment when Fuller’s Fireworks shall become a byword all over
Great Britain for all that is best and brightest in the world of
pyrotechny?”
Madame Oriano’s eyes flashed like Chinese fire, and Caleb,
perceiving that he had made a false move, tried to retrieve his
position.
“Pray do not suppose that I was planning to set myself up as a
manufacturer of fireworks on my own. So long as you will have me,
ma’am, I shall continue to work for you, and if you consent to my
marrying your Letizia I shall put my new discovery at your service on
a business arrangement that will satisfy both parties.”
Madame Oriano pondered the proposal in silence for a minute.
“Yes, you can have Letizia,” she said at last.
Caleb picked up the hand that was hanging listlessly over the
coverlet and in the effusion of his gratitude saluted it with an oily
kiss.
“And you’ll do your best to make Letizia accept me as a husband?”
he pressed.
“If I say you can have Letizia, caro, you willa have her,” the mother
declared.
“You have made me the happiest man in England,” Caleb oozed.
Whereupon he walked on tiptoe from the room with a sense even
sharper than usual that he was one of the Lord’s chosen vessels, a
most peculiar child even among the Peculiar Children of God.
Just when the hot August day had hung two dusky sapphire lamps
in the window of the room, Madame Oriano, who had been lying all
the afternoon staring up at the shadows of the birds that flitted
across the ceiling, rang the bell and demanded her daughter’s
presence.
“Letizia, devi sposarti,” she said firmly.
“Get married, mamma? But I don’t want to be married for a long
time.”
“Non ci entra, cara. Devi sposarti. Sarebbe meglio—molto meglio.
Sei troppo sfrenata.”[7]
[7] “That doesn’t come into it, my dear. You must get
married. It would be better—much better. You are too
harum-scarum.”
“I don’t see why it should be so much better. I’m not so harum-
scarum as all that. Besides, you never married at my age. You never
married at all if it comes to that.”
“Lo so. Perciò dico che tu devi sposarti.”[8]
[8] “I know that. That’s why I say that you must get married.”
“Thanks, and who am I to marry?”

“Caleb.”
“Caleb? Gemini! Caleb? Marry Caleb? But he’s so ugly! And he
don’t wash himself too often, what’s more.”
“Bello non é ... ma che importa? La bellezza passa via.”
“Yes, I daresay beauty does pass away,” said Letizia indignantly.
“But it had passed away from Caleb before ever he was born.”
“Che importa?”
“I daresay it don’t matter to you. But you aren’t being expected to
marry him. Besides, you’ve had all the beaux you wanted. But I
haven’t, and I won’t be fobbed off with Caleb. I just won’t be, and you
may do what you will about it.”
“Basta!” Madame Oriano exclaimed. “Dissa talk is enough.”
“Basta yourself and be damned, mamma,” Letizia retorted. “I won’t
marry Caleb. I’d sooner be kept by a handsome gentleman in a big
clean cravat. I’d sooner live in a pretty house he’d give me and drive
a crimson curricle on the Brighton Road like Cora Delaney.”
“It does not import two pennies what you wish, figlia mia. You willa
marry Caleb.”
“But I’m not in love with him, the ugly clown!”
“Love!” scoffed her mother. “L’amore! L’amore! Love is mad. I have
hadda so many lovers. Tanti tanti amanti! Adesso, sono felice? No!
Ma sono vecchia assai. Yes, an old woman—una vecchia miserabile
senza amanti, senza gambe—e non si fa l’amore senza gambe,
cara, ti giuro—senza danaro, senza niente.”
Sans love, sans legs, sans money, sans everything, the old
woman dropped back on her pillows utterly exhausted. A maid came
in with candles and pulled the curtains to shut out the dim grey into
which the August twilight had by now gradually faded. When the
maid was gone, she turned her glittering, sombre eyes upon her
daughter.
“You willa marry Caleb,” she repeated. “It willa be better so—molto
meglio cosi. Gli amanti non valgono niente. All who I have been
loving, where are dey now? Dove sono? Sono andati via. Alla gone
away. Alla gone. You willa marry Caleb.”
Letizia burst into loud sobs.
“But I don’t want to marry, mamma.”
“Meglio piangere a diciasette che rimpiangere a sessanta,”[9] said
Madame Oriano solemnly. “You willa marry Caleb.”
[9] “Better to weep at seventeen than to repine at sixty.”
Letizia felt incapable of resisting this ruthless old woman any

longer. She buried her head in the gaudy satin coverlet and wept in
silence.
“Allora dammi un bacio.”
The obedient daughter leaned over and kissed her mother’s lined
forehead.
“Tu hai già troppo l’aria di putana, figlia mia. Meglio sposarti.
Lasciammi sola. Vorrei dormire. Sono stanca assai ... assai.”[10]
[10] “You have already too much the air of a wanton, my

daughter. Better to get married. Leave me alone. I want to
sleep. I’m very tired.”
Madame Oriano closed her eyes, and Letizia humbly and
miserably left her mother, as she wished to be left, alone.
CHAPTER IV
MARRIED LIFE
So, Caleb Fuller married Letizia Oriano and tamed her body, as
without doubt he would have succeeded in taming the body of any
woman of whom he had lawfully gained possession.
Madame Oriano did not long survive the marriage. The effort she
made in imposing her will upon her daughter was too much for a
frame so greatly weakened. Once she had had her way, the desire to
live slowly evaporated. Yet she was granted a last pleasure from this
world before she forsook it for ever. This was the satisfaction of
beholding with her own eyes that her son-in-law’s discovery of the
value of chlorate of potash as a colour intensifier was all that he
claimed for it. That it was likely to prove excessively dangerous when
mixed with sulphur compounds did not concern this pyrotechnist of
the old school. The prodigious depth and brilliant clarity of those new
colours would be well worth the sacrifice of a few lives through
spontaneous ignition in the course of manufacturing them.
The first public demonstration that Caleb gave was on the evening
of the Fifth of November in a Clerkenwell tea-garden. It is unlikely
that Madame Oriano ever fully comprehended the significance of
these annual celebrations. If she ever did wonder who Guy Fawkes
was, she probably supposed him to be some local English saint
whose martyrdom deserved to be commemorated by an abundance
of rockets. As for Caleb, he justified to himself some of the pleasure
that his fireworks gave to so many people by the fact that the chief
festival at which they were employed was held in detestation of a
Papist conspirator.
On this particular Fifth of November the legless old lady was
carried in an invalid’s chair through the press of spectators to a
favourable spot from which she could judge the worth of the
improved fireworks. A few of the rabble jumped to the conclusion
that she was a representation of Guy Fawkes himself, and set up the
ancient chorus:
Please to remember the Fifth of November

Gunpowder treason and plot;
We know no reason why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot!
A stick and a stake for King George’s sake,
A stick and a stump for Guy Fawkes’s rump
Holla, boys! holla, boys! huzza-a-a!
Madame Oriano smiled grimly when Caleb tried to quiet the

clamour by explaining that she was flesh and blood.
“Letta dem sing, Caleb. Non fa niente a me. It don’ta matter
notting to me.”
A maroon burst to mark the opening of the performance. This was
followed by half-a-dozen rockets, the stars of which glowed with
such greens and blues and reds as Madame Oriano had never
dreamed of. She tried to raise herself in her chair.
“Bravo, Caleb! Bravissimo! Ah dio, non posso più! It is the besta
colore I havva ever seen, Caleb. E ottimo! Ottimo, figlio mio.”
She sat entranced for the rest of the display; that night, like a
spent firework, the flame of her ardent life burnt itself out.
The death of his mother-in-law allowed Caleb to carry out a plan
he had been contemplating for some time. This was to open a
factory in Cheshire on the outskirts of his native town. He anticipated
trouble at first with the Peculiar Children of God, who were unlikely to
view with any favour the business of making fireworks. He hoped,
however, that the evidence of his growing prosperity would presently
change their point of view. There was no reason to accuse Caleb of
hypocrisy, or to suppose that he was anything but perfectly sincere in
his desire to occupy a high place in the esteem of his fellow
believers. Marriage with a Papist had in truth begun to worry his
conscience more than a little. So long as Letizia had been a
temptation, the fact of her being a daughter of Babylon instead of a
Peculiar Child of God had only made the temptation more
redoubtable, and the satisfaction of overcoming it more sharp. Now
that he was licensed to enjoy her, he began to wonder what effect
marriage with a Papist would have on his celestial patron. He felt like
a promising young clerk who has imperilled his prospects by
marrying against his employer’s advice. It began to seem essential
to his salvation that he should take a prominent part in the prayer-
meetings of the Peculiar Children of God. He was ambitious to be
regarded himself as the most peculiar child of all those Peculiar
Children. Moreover, from a practical standpoint the opening of a
factory in the North should be extremely profitable. He already had
the London clients of Madame Oriano; he must now build up a solid
business in the provinces. Fuller’s Fireworks must become a byword.
The King was rumoured to be ill. He would be succeeded by another
king. That king would in due course have to be solemnly crowned.
Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Leeds, and many other large towns
would be wanting to celebrate that coronation with displays of
fireworks. When the moment arrived, there must be nobody who
would be able to compete with Fuller and his chlorate of potash.
So to Brigham in Cheshire Caleb Fuller brought his wife. In some
fields on the outskirts of the town in which he had spent a poverty-
stricken youth he built his first sheds, and in a dreary little street
close to Bethesda, the meeting-house of the Peculiar Children of
God, he set up his patriarchal tent. Here on a dusty September dawn
just over two years after her last public appearance at “Neptune’s
Grotto,” Letizia’s eldest daughter was born. The young wife of Caleb
was not yet thoroughly tamed, for she produced a daughter exactly
like herself and called her Caterina in spite of the father’s objection
to a name associated with the wheels of which he made so many.
Not only did she insist on calling the child Caterina, but she actually
took it to the nearest Catholic chapel and had it baptised by a priest.
It happened about this time that one of the apostles of the
meeting-house was gravely ill, and Caleb, who had designs on the
vacant apostolic chair, decided that his election to it must not be
endangered by the profane behaviour of his young wife. When he
remonstrated with her, she flashed her eyes and tossed her head as
if he were still Caleb the clerk and she the spoilt daughter of his
employer.
“Letizia,” he said lugubriously, “you have destroyed the soul of our
infant.”
“Nonsense!”
“You have produced a child of wrath.”
“My eye!” she scoffed.
Caleb’s moist lips vanished from sight. There was a long silence
while he regarded his wife with what seemed like two pebbles of
granite. When at last he spoke, it was with an intolerable softness.
“Letizia, you must learn to have responsibilities. I am frightened for
you, my wife. You must learn. I do not blame you entirely. You have
had a loose upbringing. But you must learn.”
Then, as gently as he was speaking, he stole to the door and left
Letizia locked behind him in her bedroom. Oh, yes, he tamed her
body gradually, and for a long time it looked as if he would tame her
soul. She had no more daughters like herself, and each year for
many years she flashed her eyes less fiercely and tossed her head
less defiantly. She produced several other children, but they all took
after their father. Dark-eyed Caterina was followed by stodgy
Achsah. Stodgy Achsah was followed by podgy Thyrza. These were
followed by two more who died almost as soon as they were born, as
if in dying thus they expressed the listlessness of their mother for this
life. Maybe Letizia herself would have achieved death, had not the
way Caleb treated little Caterina kept her alive to protect the child
against his severity.
“Her rebellious spirit must be broken,” he declared, raising once
more the cane.
“You shall not beat her like this, Caleb.”
“Apostle Jenkins beat his son till the child was senseless, because
he stole a piece of bread and jam.”
“I wish I could be as religious as you, Caleb,” said his wife.
He tried to look modest under the compliment.
“Yes,” she went on fiercely, “for then I’d believe in Hell, and if I
believed in Hell I’d sizzle there with joy just for the pleasure of seeing
you and all your cursed apostles sizzling beside me.”
But Letizia did not often break out like this. Each year she became
more silent, taking refuge from her surroundings in French novels
which she bought out of the meagre allowance for clothes that her
husband allowed her. She read French novels because she
despised the more sentimental novelists of England that were so
much in vogue at this date, making only an exception in favour of
Thackeray, whom she read word for word as his books appeared.
She was learning a bitter wisdom from literature in the shadows and
the silence of her wounded heart. After eight years of married life she
bore a son, who was called Joshua. There were moments when
Letizia was minded to smother him where he lay beside her, so
horribly did this homuncule reproduce the lineaments of her loathed
husband.
Meanwhile, the factory flourished, Caleb Fuller became the
leading citizen of Brigham and served three times as Mayor. He built
a great gloomy house on the small hill that skirted the mean little
town. He built, too, a great gloomy tabernacle for the Peculiar
Children of God. He was elected chief apostle and sat high up in
view of the congregation on a marble chair. He grew shaggy
whiskers and suffered from piles. He found favour in the eyes of the
Lord, sweating the poor and starving even the cows that gave him
milk. Yes, the renown of Fuller’s Fireworks was spread far and wide.
The factory grew larger year by year. And with it year by year waxed
plumper the belly and the purse of Caleb himself, even as his soul
shrivelled.
In 1851 after twenty years of merciless prosperity Caleb suffered
his first setback by failing to secure the contract for the firework
displays at the Great Exhibition. From the marble chair of the chief
apostle he called upon the Peculiar Children of God to lament that
their Father had temporarily turned away His countenance from
them. Caleb beat his breast and bellowed and groaned, but he did
not rend his garments of the best broadcloth, because that would
have involved his buying new ones. The hulla-balloo in Bethesda
was louder than that in a synagogue on the Day of Atonement, and
after a vociferous prayer-meeting the Peculiar Children of God went
back to their stuffy and secretive little houses, coveting their
neighbours’ wives and their neighbours’ maids, but making the best
of their own to express an unattainable ideal. Horrid stuffy little
bedrooms with blue jets of gas burning dimly through the night-time.
Heavy lumps of humanity snoring beneath heavy counterpanes.
Lascivious backbiting of the coveted wives and maids on greasy
conjugal pillows. Who in all that abode of prurient respectability and
savage industrialism should strip Caleb’s soul bare? Who should not
sympathise with the chief apostle of the Peculiar Children of God?
Yet, strange to say, Caleb found that God’s countenance
continued to be averted from his own. He was still licking the
soreness of his disappointment over the Exhibition fireworks when
one morning in the prime of June his eldest daughter left the great
gloomy house on the hill, never to return. While Caleb stormed at his
wife for not taking better precautions to keep Caterina in bounds, he
was aware that he might as well be storming at a marble statue. He
lacked the imagination to understand that the soul of Letizia had fled
from its imprisonment in the guise of Caterina’s lissom body. But he
did apprehend, however dimly, that henceforth nothing he might say
or do would ever again affect his wife either for good or for ill.
Cold dark eyes beneath black arched brows surveyed him
contemptuously. He had never yet actually struck Letizia; but he
came near to striking her at that moment.
“She wanted to go on the stage.”
“A play-actress! My eldest daughter a play-actress!”
“Alas, neither she nor I can cup those drops of blood she owes to
you. But her soul is hers and mine. You had no part in making that.
Even if you did crawl over my body and eat the heart out of me, you
slug! Do what you like with the others. Make what you can of them.
But Caterina is mine. Caterina is free.”
“As if I had not suffered enough this year,” Caleb groaned.
“Suffered? Did you say that you had suffered?” His wife laughed.
“And what about the sufferings of my Caterina all these years of her
youth?”
“I pray she’ll starve to death,” he went on.
“She was starving to death in this house.”
“Ay, I suppose that’s what the Church folk will be saying next. The
idle, good-for-nothing slanderers! Not content with accusing me of
starving my cows, they’ll be accusing me of starving my children
now. But the dear Lord knows....”
“You poor dull fool,” Letizia broke in, and with one more glance
from her cold dark eyes she left him.
Caterina had as dissolute a career as her father could have feared
and as miserable an end as he could have hoped, for about twelve
years later, after glittering with conspicuous shamelessness amid the
tawdry gilt of the Second Empire, she died in a Paris asylum
prematurely exhausted by drink and dissipation.
“Better to die from without than from within,” said her mother when
the news was brought to Brigham.
“What do you mean by that?” Caleb asked in exasperated
perplexity. “It’s all these French novels you read that makes you talk
that high-flown trash. You talk for the sake of talking, that’s my
opinion. You used to talk like a fool when I first married you, but I
taught you at last to keep your tongue still. Now you’ve begun to talk
again.”
“One changes in thirty-four years, Caleb. Even you have changed.
You were mean and ugly then. But you are much meaner and much
uglier now. However, you have the consolation of seeing your son
Joshua keep pace with you in meanness and in ugliness.”
Joshua Fuller was now twenty-six, an eternal offence to the eyes
of his mother, who perceived in him nothing but a dreadful reminder
of her husband at the same age. That anybody could dare to deplore
Caterina’s life when in Joshua the evidence of her own was before
them enraged Letizia with human crassness. But Joshua was going
to be an asset to Fuller’s Fireworks. Just as his father had perceived
the importance of chlorate of potash in 1829, so now in 1863 did
Joshua perceive the importance of magnesium, and the house of
Fuller was in front of nearly all its rivals in utilising that mineral, with
the result that its brilliant fireworks sold better than ever. The
Guilloché and Salamandre, the Girandole and Spirali of Madame
Oriano, so greatly admired by old moons and bygone multitudes,
would have seemed very dull affairs now. Another gain that Joshua
provided for the business was to urge upon his father to provide for
the further legislation about explosives that sooner or later was
inevitable. With an ill grace Caleb Fuller had complied with the
provisions of the Gunpowder Act of 1860; but, when the great
explosion at Erith occurred a few years later, Joshua insisted that
more must be done to prepare for the inspection of firework
establishments that was bound to follow such a terrific disaster.
Joshua was right, and when the Explosives Act of 1875 was passed
the factory at Brigham had anticipated nearly all its requirements.
By this time Joshua was a widower. In 1865, at the age of twenty-
eight, he had married a pleasant young woman called Susan
Yardley. After presenting him with one boy who was christened
Abraham, she died two years later in producing another who was
christened Caleb after his grandfather.
The elder of these two boys reverted both in appearance and in
disposition to the Oriano stock, and old Mrs. Fuller—she is sixty-
three now and may no longer be called Letizia—took a bitter delight
in never allowing old Mr. Fuller to forget it. She found in the boy, now
a flash of Caterina’s eyes, now a flutter of Madame Oriano’s eyelids.
She would note how much his laugh was like her own long ago, and
she would encourage him at every opportunity to thwart the
solicitude and defy the injunctions of Aunt Achsah and Aunt Thyrza.
When her son protested against the way she applauded Abraham’s
naughtiness, she only laughed.
“Bram’s all right.”
“I wish, mamma, you wouldn’t call him Bram,” Joshua protested.
“It’s so irreverent. I know that you despise the Bible, but the rest of
us almost worship it. I cannot abide this irreligious clipping of
Scriptural names. And it worries poor papa terribly.”
“It won’t worry your father half as much to hear Bram called Bram
as it’ll worry poor little Bram later on to be called Abraham. That
boy’s all right, Josh. He’s the best firework you’ve turned out of this
factory for many a day. So, don’t let Achsah and Thyrza spoil him.”
“They try their best to be strict, mamma.”
“I’m talking about their physic, idiot. They’re a pair of pasty-faced
old maids, and it’s unnatural and unpleasant to let them be for ever
messing about with a capital boy like Bram. Let them physic young
Caleb. He’ll be no loss to the world. Bram might be.”
Joshua threw his eyes up to Heaven and left his unaccountable
mother to her own unaccountable thoughts. He often wondered why
his father had never had her shut up in an asylum. For some time
now she had been collecting outrageous odds and ends of furniture
for her room to which none of the family was allowed access except
by special invitation. Ever since Caterina had run away old Mrs.
Fuller had had a room of her own. But she had been content with an
ordinary bed at first. Now she had procured a monstrous foreign
affair all gilt and Cupids and convolutions. If Joshua had been his
father he would have taken steps to prevent such a waste of her
allowance. He fancied that the old man must be breaking up to allow
such furniture to enter the house.
Not long after the conversation between Joshua and his mother
about Bram, a travelling circus arrived at Brigham on a Sunday
morning. The Peculiar Children of God shivered at such a
profanation of the Sabbath, and Apostle Fuller—in these days a truly
patriarchal figure with his long white food-bespattered beard—
preached from the marble chair on the vileness of these sacrilegious
mountebanks and the pestilent influence any circus must have on a
Christian town. In spite of this denunciation the chief apostle’s own
wife dared to take her elder grandchild on Monday to view from the
best seats obtainable the monstrous performance. They sat so near
the ring that the sawdust and the tan were scattered over them by
the horses’ hoofs. Little Bram, his chin buried in the worn crimson
velvet of the circular barrier, gloated in an ecstasy on the
paradisiacal vision.
“Brava! Bravissima!” old Mrs. Fuller cried loudly when a demoiselle
of the haute école took an extra high fence. “Brava! Bravissima!” she
cried when an equestrienne in pink tights leapt through four blazing
hoops and regained without disarranging one peroxide curl the
shimmering back of her piebald steed.
“Oh, grandmamma,” little Bram gasped when he bade her good
night, “can I be a clown when I’m a man?”
“The difficulty is not to be a clown when one is a man,” she
answered grimly.
“What do you mean, grandmamma?”
“Ah, what?” she sighed.
And in their stuffy and secretive little bedrooms that night the
Peculiar Children of God talked for hours about the disgraceful
amount of leg that those circus women had shown.
“I hear it was extremely suggestive,” said one apostle, smacking
his lips with lecherous disapprobation.
“Was it, indeed, my dear?” the dutiful wife replied, thereby offering
the man of God an opportunity to enlarge upon the prurient topic
before he turned down the gas and got into bed beside her.
“Bram was very naughty to go to the circus, wasn’t he, Aunt
Achsah?” young Caleb asked in a tone of gentle sorrow when his
pasty-faced aunt leaned over that Monday night to lay her wet lips to
his plump pink cheeks.
“Grandpapa was very cross,” Aunt Achsah mournfully replied,
evading the direct answer, but implying much by her expression.
“Gran’papa’s not cross with me, is he, auntie?” young Caleb asked
with an assumption of fervid anxiety.
“No, my dear child, and I hope that you will never, never make
your dear grandfather cross with you.”
“Oh, I won’t, Aunt Achsah,” young Caleb promised, with what Aunt
Achsah told Aunt Thyrza was really and truly the smile of one of
God’s most precious lambs.
“Thyrza, Thyrza, when that blessed little child smiles like that,
nobody could deny him anything. I’m sure his path down this vale of
tears will always be smoothed by that angelic smile.”
She was talking to her sister in the passage just outside young
Caleb’s bedroom—he had already been separated from his elder
brother for fear of corruption—and he heard what she said.
When the footsteps of his aunts died away along the passage, the
fat little boy got out of bed, turned up the gas, and smiled at himself
several times in the looking-glass. Then he retired to bed again,
satisfied of his ability to summon that conquering smile to his aid
whenever he should require it.
CHAPTER V
TINTACKS IN BRIGHAM
On a wet and gusty afternoon in the month of March, 1882, Bram
Fuller, now a stripling of sixteen, sat in one of the dingiest rooms of
that great gloomy house his grandfather had begun to build forty
years before. It looked less stark, now that the evergreen trees had
grown large enough to hide some of its grey rectangularity; but it did
not look any more cheerful in consequence. In some ways it had
seemed less ugly at first, when it stood on top of the mean little hill
and was swept clean by the Cheshire winds. Now its stucco was
stained with great green fronds and arabesques of damp caused by
the drip of the trees and the too close shrubberies of lanky privet and
laurel that sheltered its base. Old Mr. Fuller and his son were both
under the mistaken impression that the trees planted round Lebanon
House—thus had the house been named—were cedars. Whereas
there was not even so much as a deodar among the crowd of
starveling pines and swollen cryptomerias. Noah’s original ark
perched on the summit of Ararat amid the surrounding waters
probably looked a holier abode than Lebanon House above the sea
of Brigham roofs.
The town had grown considerably during half a century, and old
Mr. Fuller had long ago leased the derelict pastures, in which his
cows had tried to eke out a wretched sustenance on chickweed and
sour dock, to accommodate the enterprising builder of rows of little
two-storied houses, the colour of underdone steak. The slopes of the
hill on which the house stood had once been covered with fruit-trees,
but the poisoning of the air by the various chemical factories, which
had increased in number every year, had long made them barren.
Joshua had strongly advised his father to present the useless slopes
to Brigham as a public recreation ground. It was to have been a
good advertisement both for the fireworks and for the civic spirit that
was being fostered by the Peculiar Children of God. As a matter of
fact, Joshua himself had some time ago made up his mind to join the
Church of England as soon as his father died. He was beginning to
think that the Bethesda Tabernacle was not sufficiently up-to-date as
a spiritual centre for Fuller’s Fireworks, and he was more concerned
for the civic impression than the religious importance of the gift. On
this March afternoon, however, the slopes of Lebanon were still a
private domain, for old Mr. Fuller could never bring himself to give
away nine or ten acres of land for nothing. He was much too old to
represent Brigham in Parliament himself, and it never struck him that
Joshua might like to do so.
So, Bram Fuller was able to gaze out of the schoolroom window,
to where, beyond the drenched evergreens hustling one another in
the wind, the drive ran down into Brigham between moribund or
skeleton apple-trees fenced in on either side by those raspberry-
tipped iron railings that his grandfather had bought so cheaply when
the chock-a-block parish churchyard was abolished and an invitingly
empty cemetery was set apart on the other side of the town for the
coming generations of Brigham dead. Bram was still a day-boy at the
grammar school, and as this afternoon was the first half-holiday of
the month he was being allowed to have a friend to tea. Jack
Fleming was late, though. There was no sign of him yet coming up
the slope through the wind and wet. Bram hoped that nothing had
happened to keep him at home. He was so seldom allowed to
entertain friends that Jack’s failure to appear would have been an
overwhelming disappointment. He looked round the schoolroom
dejectedly. Never had it seemed so dingy and comfortless. Never
had that outline portrait of Queen Victoria, filled in not with the
substance of her regal form, but with an account of her life printed in
minute type, seemed such a futile piece of ingenuity; never had the
oilcloth seemed infested with so many crumbs, nor the table-cloth
such a kaleidoscope of jammy stains.
Old Mrs. Fuller had been right when she recognised in the baby
Bram her own race. She and he had their way, and Abraham was
never heard now except in the mouth of the grandfather. Yes, he was
almost a perfect Oriano, having inherited nothing from his father, and
from his mother only her pleasant voice. He was slim, with a clear-
cut profile and fine dark hair; had one observed him idling gracefully
on a sun-splashed piazza, he would have appeared more
appropriate to the setting than to any setting that Brigham could
provide. He was a popular and attractive youth with a talent for
mimicry, and a gay and fluent wit. His young brother, who fortunately
for the enjoyment of Bram and his friend had been invited forth
himself this afternoon, was a perfect Fuller save that he had
inherited from his mother a fresh complexion which at present only
accentuated his plumpness. All the Fuller characteristics were there
—the greedy grey eyes, the podgy white hands, the fat rump and
spindle legs, the full wet lips and slimy manner. To all this young
Caleb could add his own smile of innocent candour when it suited his
purpose to produce it. At school he was notorious as a toady and a
sneak, but he earned a tribute of respect from the sons of a
commercial community by his capacity for swopping to his own
advantage and by his never failing stock of small change, which he
was always willing to lend at exorbitant interest on good security.
Bram was badly in debt to his young brother at the present moment,
and this added something to the depression of the black March
afternoon, though that was lightened at last by the tardy arrival of his
expected friend with the news that Blundell’s Diorama had arrived in
Brigham and would exhibit itself at seven o’clock.
“We must jolly well go, Bramble,” Jack declared.
Bram shook his head despondently.
“No chink!”
“Can’t you borrow some from young Caleb?”
“I owe him two and threepence halfpenny already, and he’s got my
best whalebone-splice bat as a security till I pay him back.”
“Good Lord, and I’ve only got sixpence,” Jack Fleming groaned.
“Anyway, it’s no use,” Bram went on. “The governor wouldn’t let
me go into Brigham on a Saturday night.”
“Can’t you find some excuse?”
Bram pondered for a few seconds.
“I might get my grandmater to help.”
“Well, buck up, Bramble. It’s a spiffing show, I hear. They’ve got
two girls with Italian names who play the guitar or something. We
don’t often get a chance of a decent evening in Brigham.”
“You’re right, Jack. All serene! Then I’ll have a try with the
grandmater. She’s such an old fizzer that she might manage it.”
Bram went up cautiously to old Mrs. Fuller’s room. She was
seventy now, but still able to hate fiercely her octogenarian husband
who was for ever browsing among dusty commentaries on the Old
Testament nowadays, and extracting from the tortuous fretwork of
bookworms such indications of the Divine purpose as the exact date
and hour of the Day of Judgment. He was usually clad in a moth-
eaten velveteen dressing-gown and a smoking cap of quilted black
silk with a draggled crimson tassel. The latter must have been worn
as a protection to his bald and scaly head, because not a puff of
tobacco smoke had ever been allowed to contend with the odour of
stale food that permeated Lebanon House from cellar to garret.
The old lady was sitting by the fire in her rococo parlour, reading
Alphonse Daudet’s new book. Her hawk’s face seemed to be not so
much wrinkled as finely cracked like old ivory. Over her shoulders
she wore a wrap of rose and silver brocade.
“Why, Bram, I thought you were entertaining visitors this
afternoon.”
“I am. He’s downstairs in the schoolroom. Jack Fleming, I mean.”
“Is that a son of that foxy-faced solicitor in High Street?”
Bram nodded.
“But Jack’s rather decent. I think you’d like him, grandmamma.”
“Ah, I’m too old to begin liking new people.”
Bram kicked his legs together, trying to make up his mind what line
to adopt for enlisting the old lady’s sympathy.
“Blundell’s Diorama is here,” he announced at last.

Download textbook Complex Systems Design Management Asia Smart Transportation Proceedings Of The Third Asia Pacific Conference On Complex Systems Design Management Csd M Asia 2018 Michel Alexandre Cardin ebook all chapter pdf

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Download textbook Complex Systems Design Management Asia Smart Transportation Proceedings Of The Third Asia Pacific Conference On Complex Systems Design Management Csd M Asia 2018 Michel Alexandre Cardin ebook all chapter pdf

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Complex Systems Design Management

Asia Smart Transportation Proceedings

Complex Systems Design Management Asia Smart Nations

Complex Systems Design Management Proceedings of the

Complex Systems Design Management Proceedings of the

Complex Systems Design amp Management Proceedings of

The Proceedings of the 2018 Asia Pacific International

Methods and Applications for Modeling and Simulation of

Complex, Intelligent, and Software Intensive Systems:

Redefining Diversity & Dynamics of Natural Resources

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11156

Daniel Krob Pao Chuen Lui

Complex Systems Design &

Daniel Hastings Pao Chuen Lui

ISSN 2194-5357 ISSN 2194-5365 (electronic)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018959428

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

This volume contains the proceedings of the Third International Asia-Paciﬁc

Why a CSD&M Asia Conference?

Mastering complex systems requires an integrated understanding of industrial

Our Core Academic—Industrial Dimension

The Third CSD&M Asia 2018 Edition

Each submission was assigned to at least two Program Committee members,

August 2018 Michel Alexandre Cardin

Daniel Krob Ecole Polytechnique & CESAMES, France

Organizing Committee Co-chairs

Michel Alexandre Cardin CESAMES Singapore

Program Committee Chair

Peter Jackson SUTD, Singapore

The Program Committee consists of 21 members (academic, industrial, and gov-

Peter Jackson SUTD, Singapore

Steffen Blume SEC, Singapore

The Organizing Committee consists of 11 members (academic, industrial, and

Michel Alexandre Cardin CESAMES Singapore

Saik Hay Fong ST Engineering, Singapore

Michael Gastner Assistant Professor for Mathematics, Computer

A Net-Based Formal Framework for Causal Loop Diagrams . . . . . . . . . 1

Guillermina Cledou1 and Shin Nakajima2(B)

Abstract. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) are a modeling tool employed

Smart transportation is a strategic area to focus on enabling sustainable societies.

c Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

enough to enable systematic automated analysis such as model checking [1,7].

2 Causal Loop Diagrams

Fig. 1. Three basic components

Fig. 2. An example composed loop (Figs. 5–21 in [10])

2.2 Informal Semantics

Structural aspects of a CLD are basically captured by a four-tuple V, I, , τ .

3 Net-Based Formal Frameworks

Petri-nets [6] is a net-based formal framework for modeling concurrent systems.

Fig. 3. Petri net

Dynamic behavior of a PT-net is deﬁned in terms of markings. Let M (p) rep-

CLD represents system dynamics qualitatively, and introducing qualitative

4.1 Qualitative Values

[[ vd ]] = [[ vs ]] if (vs , +, vd ), [[ vd ]] = rev([[ vs ]]) if (vs , −, vd )

Each element of Q̂ may be encoded as a distinct color if we use CP-nets as a

4.2 True Concurrency and AMAN Strategy

As presented in Sect. 3, Petri-nets, either CP-nets or PT-nets, can represent

4.3 Non-deterministic Delay

Delay is quantitative in nature (Chap. 11 in [10]). A delayed causal link in qual-

5 Causal Loop Nets

Fig. 4. CDL and CLN

5.1 Formal Definitions

A CLN is a six-tuple D over T oken, D = P, T, F, τ, ν, M0 . P and T are ﬁnite

5.2 Dynamic Behavior