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Download textbook Concepts Of Epidemiology Integrating The Ideas Theories Principles And Methods Of Epidemiology 3Rd Edition Bhopal ebook all chapter pdf
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Concepts of Epidemiology
ii
iii
Concepts
of Epidemiology
Integrating the ideas,
theories, principles, and
methods of epidemiology
THIRD EDITION
1
iv
1
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP,
United Kingdom
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries
© Raj S. Bhopal 2016
The moral rights of the authorhave been asserted
First Edition published in 2002
Second Edition published in 2008
Third Edition published in 2016
Impression: 1
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted
by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics
rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the
above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
address above
You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016945263
ISBN 978–0–19–873968–5
Printed in Great Britain by
Clays Ltd, St Ives plc
Oxford University Press makes no representation, express or implied, that the
drug dosages in this book are correct. Readers must therefore always check
the product information and clinical procedures with the most up-to-date
published product information and data sheets provided by the manufacturers
and the most recent codes of conduct and safety regulations. The authors and
the publishers do not accept responsibility or legal liability for any errors in the
text or for the misuse or misapplication of material in this work. Except where
otherwise stated, drug dosages and recommendations are for the non-pregnant
adult who is not breast-feeding
Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
v
†(deceased 2010)
vi
vii
Foreword
John M. Last
Emeritus Professor of Epidemiology
University of Ottawa
John M. Last
Emeritus Professor of Epidemiology
University of Ottawa
viii Foreword
commentary that is helpful to teachers and learners alike. Now, from the University of Edinburgh
(where I spent five happy years in the 1960s), Raj Bhopal, who holds the Usher chair of public
health, has written his own introductory textbook for graduate students who are embarking upon
the detailed study of epidemiology.
This is an excellent introduction. Raj Bhopal’s approach is conceptual—he describes and explains
the underlying concepts and methods of epidemiology with clarity and with apt examples, and
simple, elegant illustrations. Frequently throughout the text he asks penetrating questions that
will test the limits of his readers’ intellectual capacity—an admirable feature that other authors
could copy with benefit to themselves and their readers. All the essentials are here: the person–
population dyad, variation, error, bias, confounding, causality, the spectrum of disease, the ‘ice-
berg’ concept, risk and its relationship to disease frequency, study design, the ethical framework
within which we practise epidemiology and conduct research, the relationship of epidemiology
to other scholarly pursuits, and finally, some thoughts about the way the discipline has evolved
and is likely to continue to evolve in the lifetime of those now entering upon careers in this field.
If I may speak directly to students starting the study of epidemiology: you can be grateful that
there is a book like this to guide you along the fascinating pathway that leads to epidemiological
enlightenment and understanding. This book will enable you to comprehend the connections
between individual and population health, the natural history of disease, the methods of epidemi-
ology, the interventions that work and don’t work, and the role of epidemiology as the fundamen-
tal public health science. This is a book for you to buy, to read, to study, and to enjoy.
John M. Last
Emeritus Professor of Epidemiology
University of Ottawa
ix
Preface
x Preface
◆ The work is rooted in the basic ideas of the science of epidemiology, which are wholly applica-
ble worldwide.
◆ The emphasis is on gaining understanding, and not on calculations, except where this is essen-
tial to understanding.
◆ Most of the exercises require reflection not calculation.
I think this analysis is still correct.
Second Edition
In preparation for the second edition, I looked to criticisms and comments of book reviewers,
previous students, and co-teachers. Surprisingly, the book earned much praise and little criticism.
Nonetheless, I made many changes, some of them in response to specific feedback, including:
◆ simpler writing, particularly to meet the needs of students whose main language is not English,
and those without a medical/clinical background;
◆ several new questions, answers, problems, and exercises, including 20 questions in Chapter 9
to develop students’ understanding of study design;
◆ a brief introduction in Chapter 1 to incidence, prevalence, and study design;
◆ a set of questions with model answers so students can test themselves at the end of each chapter;
◆ a brief introduction to genetic epidemiology;
◆ extra concepts including correlation/regression, regression to the mean, and regression dilu-
tion bias, effect modification and interaction, receiver operating curves, the counterfactual
approach, and birth cohort analysis in relation to cross-sectional and secular trends;
◆ an introduction to the purposes and principles of reviews, systematic reviews, and meta-analysis;
◆ a clearer exposition of epidemiology’s relation to statistics, based on the principles underpin-
ning epidemiological analysis of data;
◆ expansion in many directions including on epidemiological variables and data privacy.
Third Edition
My focus remains on the ideas, strategies, methods, and applications of the discipline. What added
value might readers expect in this revision? In addition to more rigorously edited and updated
and yet expanded text, with further simplification of language, readers will find:
◆ The use of exemplars, highlighted in panels, to illustrate the concepts and methods under con-
sideration in every chapter
◆ Much more emphasis on causality, and an introduction to the language and approaches of
causal graphs
◆ Introduction to the language (including an expanded glossary) and approaches of the directed
acyclic graph (DAG), translating the technical terms into more familiar epidemiological words
and phrases (with an exemplar)
◆ More and deeper consideration of the qualities of epidemiological variables
◆ Expansion of previously introductory material on how new genetic technologies are chang-
ing epidemiology, with special emphasis on the Mendelian randomization study (with an
exemplar)
◆ Fuller consideration of the technical, ethical, conceptual, and practical epidemiological issues
arising from computerized linkage of records (with exemplars)
xi
Preface xi
◆ A clearer explanation of the way one moves from data to information and intelligence through
systematic analysis and interpretation
◆ A clearer exposition of difficult ideas including non-differential misclassification, effect modi-
fication, and its statistical equivalent of interaction
◆ An expansion of the study design chapter
◆ In line with trends in epidemiology, a clearer distinction between proportions and rates,
including adoption of distinctive terminology when appropriate
◆ Consideration of the potential implications for extremely large influence on tens of millions, if
not hundreds of millions, of people
The old favourites in previous editions are still there; for example, thought exercises embedded
in the text, numerical calculations, historical references (also see Appendix 2 for further reading
and useful websites), and the links between epidemiology and both clinical and public health
practice. Readers acquainted with the first edition will recognize the style, and hopefully they will
agree it has matured and improved, and not just grown fatter over time.
I meet readers of Concepts of Epidemiology in all corners of the globe and I am heartened by
their remarks. They tell me that this book explains complex issues simply. I have worked to ensure
this third edition will make difficult ideas even easier. Let me know whether you agree (email me
at raj.bhopal@ed.ac.uk).
Happy reading!
Raj Bhopal
December 2015
xii
xiii
Acknowledgements
February 2008
xiv Acknowledgements
Marcus Steiner, an MSc (Epidemiology) student and graduate at Edinburgh University, was my
postgraduate reader-critic and helper. His advice and help, particularly with the technical prepa-
ration and development of the figures, was immensely useful.
Dr Sonja Hunt stimulated me to think about Figure 10.1. Dr Colin Fischbacher helped me
proofread the manuscript and made several thoughtful observations. Professor John Last enthu-
siastically agreed to write the Foreword.
Others who provided academic advice on one or more specific chapters include: Professor Carl
Shy, Dr David Chappel, Dr Eileen Kaner, and four anonymous referees who commented on the
book proposal and chapter outlines.
I thank Dr Mike Lavender for permission to use extracts from our joint unpublished paper on
the role of epidemiology in priority setting, and co-authors on various publications that I have
drawn upon (these are referenced). I have drawn heavily on my publications to prepare Chapter 10
and Acknowledgements, details of which are given below.
Helen Liepman, Commissioning Editor at Oxford University Press, deserves thanks for her
enthusiasm, expert support, and patience.
I conceived this book while in my post as Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health at the
University of Newcastle upon Tyne, England. The embryonic and fetal growth stages of the idea
were nourished during my sabbatical at the Department of Epidemiology of the School of Public
Health at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and on my return to Newcastle. The
birthplace of the book, however, was in Edinburgh University.
Secretarial support was provided chiefly by Lorna Hutchison, Carole Frazer (both Newcastle
University), Betsy Seagroves (University of North Carolina), Janet Logan, and Hazel King (both
Edinburgh University).
I offer grateful thanks to my wife Roma for encouraging me to finish the project, for accepting
the sleep disruption caused by early morning shuffling as I slipped out of bed and into the study,
and for my lack of enthusiasm for late night revelries. I have four sons, Sunil, Vijay, Anand, and
Rajan, and I ask their forgiveness for sometimes being too busy and distracted to give them and
their passions the attention they deserved.
R.S.B.
2001
xv
Contents
Abbreviations xxiii
Glossary of selected terms xxv
xvi Contents
Sample questions 49
References 50
3 Variation in disease by time, place, and person: background and a framework for
analysis of genetic and environmental effects 51
Objectives 51
3.1 Introduction to variation in disease by time, place, and person 51
3.2 Reasons for analysing disease variations: environment and genetics 52
3.3 Introducing human genetic variation and genetic epidemiology 54
3.3.1 The human genome 54
3.3.2 Genomic variation as the potential basis of human disease
and population variation 56
3.3.3 Susceptibility to diseases, chronic diseases, and genetics 58
3.3.4 Mapping and manipulating the genome 61
3.3.5 Population level differences in disease and genetics: the cautionary
example of race 62
3.4 Variations and associations: real or artefact? 63
3.5 Applying the real/artefact framework 68
3.6 Disease clustering and clusters in epidemiology 75
3.7 Applications of observations of disease variation 82
3.8 Epidemiological theory underpinning or arising from this chapter 83
3.9 Conclusion 83
Exemplar 3.1 84
Summary 85
Sample questions 86
References 87
4 Error, bias, and confounding in epidemiology 89
Objectives 89
4.1 Introduction to error, bias, and confounding in epidemiology 89
4.2 A classification of error and bias 93
4.2.1 Bias in the research question, theme, or hypothesis 93
4.2.2 Choice of population—selection bias, and the benefits and disbenefits
of representativeness 96
4.2.3 Non-participation: non-response bias 99
4.2.4 Comparing disease patterns and risk factor–disease outcome relationships
in populations which differ (context for confounding) 100
4.2.5 Measurement errors and natural variations 105
4.2.6 Regression to the mean 111
4.2.7 Analysis and interpretation of data 112
4.2.8 Publication 113
4.2.9 Judgement and action 114
4.3 A practical application of the research chronology schema of bias and error 115
xvii
Contents xvii
xviii Contents
Contents xix
xx Contents
Contents xxi
xxii Contents
Abbreviations
xxiv Abbreviations
The glossary focuses on clinical terminology, and terminology relating to directed acyclic graphs
(introduced in the third edition), and excludes many terms and concepts considered in the main text,
which can be accessed via the index.
Acute An adjective commonly applied to diseases that have a short time course.
Adenocarcinoma A cancer of mucosal cells.
Aetiology/aetiological Causation/about causation.
AIDS Acquired immune deficiency syndrome, the serious multisystem disease resulting from
infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).
Allele see Gene.
Ancestor In DAG (see entry) terminology all preceding factors in the causal line that are linked
to the exposure under study.
Anorexia Impaired appetite for food which can lead to serious illness; when caused by psycho-
logical factors it is called anorexia nervosa.
Angina see Rose angina.
Arrhythmia An abnormal rhythm—usually applied to the heart.
Association A link, connection, or relationship, between risk factors, between diseases, and most
usually between risk factors and diseases.
Asthma A respiratory disease characterized by difficulty in breathing caused by narrowing of the
airways (which is reversible).
Atherosclerosis/atherosclerotic The process of deposition of lipids and other materials in the
walls of arteries leads to their narrowing and to inflammation. Such an artery is atherosclerotic
(also known as arteriosclerosis/arteriosclerotic).
Atrial fibrillation An irregular heart beat resulting from very rapid and irregular contractions of
the atrium (one of the chambers of the heart).
Attenuation Reduction of the measured effect of a cause in epidemiology. In microbiology it
means that the virulence of microbes is reduced through processes that attenuate the effects
(e.g. in the production of vaccines).
Autopsy see Necropsy.
Autosomal A genetic disorder relating to any chromosome except the sex (X and Y) chromosomes.
Backdoor path A non-causal path arising from an association with a third factor between a
putative cause and outcome. In epidemiology, this is the effect of the confounding variable. In
a DAG the arrow for this path points to the exposure.
Blocked/Blocking A causal path that is closed off as a result of the third factor (confounder).
Blood pressure Usually refers to the pressure in the systemic arteries (not veins and pulmonary
arteries), as measured by sphygmomanometer (see below).
Brucellosis An infection caused by Brucella microorganisms, characterized by recurrent fevers.
xxvi
Capture–recapture method A technique whereby two or more incomplete data sets are used
to estimate the true size of the population of interest. Usually in epidemiology, the method is
applied to populations that are hard to count (e.g. the homeless).
Cancer see Neoplasm.
Carcinogen(ic) A substance that increases the risk of developing a cancer (an adjective describ-
ing such a substance).
Case A person with the disease or problem under investigation.
Caseous An adjective applied to cheese-like lesions produced in response to inflammation (e.g.
in tuberculosis).
Cataract An opacity in the lens of the eye.
Causal diagram A general term for a variety of approaches to showing the relationships between
variables in graphic form. Within epidemiology these diagrams set out the relationship
between exposure variables and outcomes, in relation to other variables such as confounders.
One formal causal diagram is the directed acyclic graph (DAG).
Causal graph see Causal diagram (synonym).
Causation The term is commonly used in epidemiology, public health, and medicine as an alter-
native to aetiology.
Cause Something which has an effect; in the case of epidemiology this effect being (primarily) a
change in the frequency of risk factors or adverse health outcomes in populations.
Causality The relationship between causes and effects.
CAD or coronary artery disease see Coronary heart disease.
Cholesterol A lipid (fatty substance) that is essential to many bodily functions that is transported
in the blood via lipoproteins. Cholesterol and other lipids carried by low/very low-density
lipoproteins (LDL/VLDL) are a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, while those carried by
high-density lipoproteins (HDL) may be protective.
Child In DAG terminology—the immediate descendant of the variable.
Chromosome see Gene.
Chronic An adjective commonly applied to diseases that have a long-lasting time course, and
usually applied to non-toxic and non-infectious diseases.
Chronic bronchitis A lung disease characterized by production of excess sputum, wheezing,
shortness of breath, and eventual respiratory failure.
Circadian A rhythm with a cycle lasting about 24 hours, corresponding to each day.
Collapsibility The situation where measure of association remains unchanged despite omis-
sion of variables from the model and where stratified and un-stratified results are the same.
Collapsibility is not the same as confounding but a more general concept including both con-
founding and M-bias.
Collider A term used in DAGs for a variable where both the exposure and the outcome have an
arrow (path) leading to it. In other words, the exposure and outcome, together, are the causes
(parents) of the collider.
Competing causes (or competing risks) A concept where alternative causes of disease, or more
usually causes of death, are in competition with each other; for example, in African Caribbean
populations one explanation of the comparatively low CHD rates is that the atherosclerotic
process kills people from stroke. If stroke were to be controlled, it may be that CHD would
become more common.
xxvii
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) A formal mathematical method for producing a postulated causal
diagram. The diagram shows one-way relationships, hence it is called acyclic, and the direction
of relationships is shown by arrows.
Disease A bodily dysfunction, usually one that can be described by a diagnostic label. (For sim-
plicity, this book concentrates on discussing diseases and uses this word loosely when other
words describing other health problems would be more specific, e.g. death, disability, illness,
sickness, etc.)
Distribution The frequency with which each value (or category) of a variable occurs in the study
population. The distribution of many variables takes on a characteristic shape. Also see Normal
distribution.
Dizygotic Usually refers to non-identical twins who have shared the womb, but result from two
fertilized eggs (see Monozygotic).
Down’s syndrome A congenital genetic disorder, leading to mental retardation and a charac-
teristic face, caused by the presence of three chromosomes instead of two at the site of the
twenty-first chromosome.
Edge The line that is the basis of the arrow in a DAG.
Effect modifier A factor that alters the causal impact of another factor, the classical example
being that smoking cigarettes greatly modifies (increases) the risk of lung cancer after exposure
to asbestos and vice versa.
Elective In health care, a procedure done at a time chosen for its convenience, as opposed to
being dictated by an emergency (e.g. elective surgery).
Electrocardiogram (ECG) A recording of the electrical activity of the heart made by an instru-
ment called an electrocardiograph.
Emphysema When applied to the lungs (pulmonary emphysema) a condition caused by destruc-
tion of lung tissue with gaseous distension.
Endogenous selection see M-bias.
Environment A broad concept in epidemiology, sometimes meaning everything except genetic
and biological factors, and sometimes more qualified and narrow (e.g. physical environment).
Epidemiological transition The change in disease patterns that accompanies the demo-
graphic transition, with both transitions usually following economic, educational, or social
improvements.
Epidemiology See text, but in short, the study of the pattern of diseases and their causes in
populations.
Epilepsy A disease of the brain characterized by temporary, involuntary, altered states of con-
sciousness, including fits (convulsions).
Equity/inequity An equality that is required by our rules on fairness and justice. An inequal-
ity that is unfair or unjust is called an inequity. Inequity is a subset of inequality, as not all
inequalities are unfair.
Estimability see Identification.
Ethnicity The group you belong to, or are perceived to belong to, or a mix of both, as a result of
cultural factors such as dress, religion, diet, name, ancestry, and physical appearance (e.g. skin
colour).
Exchangeability A concept indicating that two groups are the same in terms of their probability
of an event (e.g. on outcome). In other words, the groups are alike.
Another random document with
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takaisin maksettava kreditivilaina merkitsi täsmälleen koko
ensivuoden tullitulojen panttausta. Semmoisiin toimiin rupeaminen
olisi kyllä saattanut arveluttaa rohkeimpiakin, ja semminkin olisi
luullut Snellmanin, joka ei suinkaan keveästi liikutellut miljoonia,
tässäkin asettuvan säästäväisyyden kannalle. Perheen-isännän ei
kuitenkaan käy katsominen vaaroja ja varomisia, kun perheen
pelastaminen on kysymyksessä, ja kiitollisena näkyy Snellman
ainiaan pysyneen tuolle "hädässä löydetylle ystävällensä."
VII.
Ohria Kauroja
tynnyriä tynnyriä
Oulun lääniin 13,400 1,000
Kuopion " 15,650 700
Waasan " 15,200 7,000
Mikkelin " 6,700 850
Turun " 5,550 1,600
Hämeen " 5,700 1,000
Uudenmaan " 1,300 —
Wiipurin " 500 —
_____________________________________
Summa: 64,000 12,150
Missä hätä oli suurin, siellä apukin tuli runsain. Nuo kolme
pohjoista lääniä leikkasivat syksyllä 1868 erittäin runsaan sadon
kylvöstänsä. Etelämmällä tosin vaivasi kovat poudat, eikä sato,
semminkin omista heikommista siemenistä, ollut varsin kiitettävä.
Mutta eihän silloin oltu paljoon totuttukaan. Jos olivatkin hinkalot
puolillaan, niin oli tuo jo ilahuttava näky edelliseen tyhjyyteen
verraten.
Riihimäen—Pietarin rautatie.
Yksityisten ponnistukset.