DAN THUNDERSTORM, DISAMPING ITU INDEKS DARI DATA RASON DIKENAL JUGA DENGAN SEBUTAN PARAMETER KONVEKTIF PARAMETER KONVEKTIF ANTARA LAIN : -SI -LI -TOTA INDEKX -K INDEK -SWEAT -DSB….. BANYAK SEKALI RUMUSAN PARAMTER KONVEKTIF YG DPT DIMANFAATKAN UTK KEPERLUAN PREDIKSI SKALA LOKAL ATAU NOWCASTING What conditions make the air unstable? • Warming of surface air – Solar heating of ground – Warm “advection” near surface – Air moving over a warm surface (e.g., a warm body of water)
• Cooling of air aloft
– Cold “advection” aloft (thunder-snow!) – Radiative cooling of air/clouds aloft What conditions make the air stable? • Radiative cooling of surface at night
• Advection of cold air near the surface
• Air moving over a cold surface (e.g., snow)
• Warming of the air due to compression from
subsidence (sinking) KONSEP DAN IDE TTG UDARA KERING DAN LEMBAB
Conveksi Panas vs. Kondusi
Atmospheric lapse rate Fungsi Tekanan terhadap ketinggian Konveksi dalam udara kering dan basah Perjalanan panas atmosfer Konveksi lembab dan CISK Static Stability Indices – CAPE and Vertical Velocity
maximum is seldom realized
due to entrainment and water loading Bulk Richardson Number Represents the ratio of buoyancy (as measured by CAPE) and the vertical wind shear. As we have noted, CAPE relates to updraft strength. Storm structure and movement are related to the vertical wind shear. Bulk Richardson Number • BRN < 10 ~ much more shear than buoyancy and storms tend to be torn apart by the shear • exception: in strongly forced, high-shear, low-CAPE environments where supercells are observed with BRN < 10 • 10 < BRN < 35 ~ balance between shear and buoyancy favor supercells • BRN > 50 ~ buoyancy dominates over shear and single- or multi-cell storms are more likely to be observed S INDEKS Metode single station di daerah midlatitude Sangat Tidak Kategori Faktor Dominan Mendukung Mendukung Biasa Mendukung pergerakan massa udara lapisan bawah (konvergen, front) Kuat Sedang Lemah tidak ada 2 x Sqrt(CAPE) + SR – Inflow (Sqrt = akar Inisialisasi /potensi Badai kuadrat) > 125kts 100 - 125 80 - 99 < 80 Kuat/Severe Strom 400 - 700mb > 30 20-29 19 < 12 Ketinggian lapisan beku updraft atau lingkungan 11,500 - 14,000 - 16,000 Hail besar (AGL) < 11,000 ft 13,500 ft ft 17,000 ft Ketebalan/intensitas - Kuat, meso - Sedang, - Meso mesocyclone tebal meso tebal lemah/tipis - Tanpa meso Depresi titik embun (Dewpt) lapisan 500 – 700 mb (C) > 7.5 6.5-7.5 5.5-6.5 < 5.5 Lapse Rate lapisan 850 – 500 mb (C/km) > 25 -43 -30 - <12 Angin Yang Merusak Sfc thetaE-lowest thetaE pada lapisan 400 – 700 mb (K) >6 4-6 3-4 <3 Perubahan tekanan permukaan 3 jam (mb) > 15 10-15 5-10 <5 400 - 700 mb > 30 kts 20-29kts 10-19kts < 10 kts Depresi titik embun Tornado terendah lapisan 50 – 100 12-18F (6- 19-27F (10 - mb < 11F (6C) 10C) 15C) >27F (15C)