Pak-China Relations

Historical Background:
 Diplomatic relations established in 1951 (70 years celebrations
2021),
 Pakistan - first Muslim country to recognize China,
 Pakistan supported Chinese entry into the UN,
 Pak China demarcated borders in 1962,
 Since then frequent visits have been paid by the leadership of
the both countries.

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

 Relations are based on:
 mutual respect
 cooperation.
“Pakistan is China’s window to the West,” M. Zedong

 Indo-China 1962 War, Indo-Pak 1965 war, and US support to India &
Arms embargo on Pak.

 Pushed Pakistan to look for Chinese option;

“Friends not masters” Ayub Khan
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.
“If we would not establish normal relations with all three big
powers, the best thing is to have an understanding with two of
them. It was on the basis that I set out to normalize our relations
with China and Soviet Union”
President Ayub Khan

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

Cold War geopolitical trajectories

 Not the “divide and rule” but “communism” was the major
cause of great powers’ role in South Asia.
 China’s Communist question (USA approached India for
balancing China in Asia).
 India chose to stay neutral & US approached Pakistan.
 Sino-Indian 1962 war, US inclination towards India,
 Pushing Pakistan to China.

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

The nature of contemporary Pak-China engagement

State Level:
Pakistan’s dependence on China;
1. Economic (After US, China)
2. Defence (Vs India for regional BoP)
3. Technological (capacity building of Pak)
4. Diplomatic (friendly neighbourhood)

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

Economic Bilateralism:
 CPEC to transform and modernize Pak economy.
 62 Billion US$ project, connects Gwadar to Kashgar.
Discussion
 Infrastructure, Energy, and Industrial zones.
 2.3 million jobs b/w 2015-2030 & 2 to 2.5 % of annual growth
increase.

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

Technical cooperation:
 Heavy Mechanical Complex Taxila 1979.
 Railways, Nuclear, Karakoram, Locomotives, Mangla Dam
rising, power generation, etc.
Strategic convergence:
 US & India factor.
 Kashmir Issue,
 JF-17 aircrafts, Tanks, small arms manufacturing.
 frequent Joint Training and exercises.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.
Why does China look towards Pakistan?
1. Pakistan’s strategic location suits China;
 For West March Strategy (BRI),
 Access to the Indian ocean (vertically),
 Energy Security,
 Malacca dilemma,
 South China Sea,
 Develop the West China project.

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

Indian Ocean

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, Politics & iR, UCP, Lahore
Indian Ocean Region and trade flows

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, Politics & iR, UCP, Lahore
CPEC solves the Chinese Malacca Dilemma.

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

2. Diplomatic & national security reliance;
 Uyghur Muslims & Taliban connection,
 Pakistan’s standing in the Muslim world.
International Level:
 Let’s understand the “West March Strategy” through two
prisms;
1. Mackinder’s Heartland theory
2. Spyman’s Rimland Theory

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

 Sir H. Mackinder’s Heartland theory
 The state that contros the resource-rich “heartland” of East
Europe & Western Asia could eventually dominate the world.

“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;

who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
who rules the World-Island commands the world.”

 World-Island: Europe, Asia, Africa

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.
 N. Spykman’s Rimland Theory (1893-1943)

“Who controls the rimland rules Eurasia; who rules Eurasia

controls the destiny of the world.”

 He differed with Mackinder on the following;

1. For Spykman, it is the rimland, not the heartland,

important for the world domination.
2. Sea power is more valuable and alliance (NATO) will keep
the heartland in control.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.
Rimland Regions: Europe, Middle East, India, South East Asia, and China

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

 Belt Road Initiative (BRI)

Heartland Theory Rimland Theory

 BRI  South China Sea
 Massive investment in  Naval Power
trade routes with
Eurasian countries

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

Chinese Belt Road Initiative (BRI)

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

 Rise of China, from Unipolar world to Bipolar world.
 Pakistan has significant role in ‘West March’ strategic thinking;
1. CPEC,
2. CWAC,
3. Chinese energy security,
4. Access to IOR.
 Pakistan’s leverage in Afghanistan (CPEC+CWAC)
 China views Pakistan as balancer Vs India (Int+Reg)

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

Conclusion:
 Pak-China, All weather & time tested friendship.

 Owing to the changing global & regional political landscape,

relationship has expanded from “diplomatic only” to the “geo-
economics & “geostrategic” dimensions.

 Further deepening is foreseeable.

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.
Pakistan Turkey Relations
Historical Background:
 Religious romanticism:
1. Ottoman Rule.
2. Khilafat Movement.
 Diplomatic Relations:
1. Recognized & supported Pakistan become member of UN.
2. Pak currency was printed in Turkey.
3. ECO 1964,
4. New Era of Islamic Affinity: Neo-ottoman Erdogan’s soft power projection.
5. Erdogan addressed 2009, 2012, 2016.
6. Pakistan condemned coup in July 2016.
7.Lecture
FATF – Turkey
by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOAsupported
Islamabad & Lahore. Pakistan.
Economic Relations:
1. Q.A Solar power project 100 MW.
2. A Turkish Cola company invested 200 Million $.
3. 2005 Earthquake, 2010 floods, Eye hospitals in LHR.
4. Overall, 900 million US$ mutual trade.
Defense and Security Relations:
5. CENTO 1954.
6. Attack helicopters, fleet Tankers, naval warships.
7. Pakistan supports Turkish position on Cyprus issue.
8. Supports Pakistan on Kashmir Issue.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.
9. Pakistan denounces Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
Why this warmth now?
1. Historical (religious) bond,
2. Kemalist secularism prevented IRoP & Secular Turkey,
3. Pakistan’s tilt to the Arabs (Eco, religious, strategic)
4. Under AKP, Turkey’s economic revival, aspirations for
leadership, looking for avenues in Islamic World.
5. Strategic reasons: changing priorities – Weak Arabs pro
India, in response Pakistan looking towards Turkey & Iran.
Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.
Conclusion:

 Pak-Turk relations have been “ceremonial” & “ideological”

based on “Islamic rhetoric”.

 Not that concrete partnership. However, has strong potential

for concrete ties in the future.

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.

 Discussion
Q/A

Lecture by: Zahid Mehmood Zahid, NOA Islamabad & Lahore.