Trich Dan Phantichvaraquyetdinhkinhdoanh

Phn tch v
ra quyt nh kinh doanh
Ti liu h tr o to theo chng trnh Cao ng Quc gia Anh chun BTEC
(Pearson BTEC Higher Nationals and foundation degrees)
Business Decision Making

Bn dch ting Vit
BPP Learning Media

Dch thut
Trng i Hc FPT
Phin bn sch ny bao gm:
Cc ch chnh lin quan n mn hc.

Cc bi tp thc hnh, v d v cu hi n tp.
Cc minh ha thc t, cp nht cng vi nhng tnh hung nghin cu.
Bng tra cu thut ng.
Ni dung ph hp vi Ti liu hng dn v chng trnh o to ngh
qun tr kinh doanh bc Cao ng quc gia Anh theo chun BTEC quy
nh bi t chc Edexcel (Pearson).
NH XUT BN KHOA HC V K THtUT
Ta: Phn tch v ra quyt nh kinh doanh

Tc gi: BPP Learning Media
Dch thut: Trng i hc FPT
ISBN 13 (Bn dch): 978-604-67-0107-1
Phin bn gc ln 3. Bn quyn bn gc 2013 thuc v Nh xut bn BPP Learning Media
Phin bn dch ln 1. Bn quyn bn dch ting Vit 2013-2016 thuc v i hc FPT.
Ton b bn quyn lin quan ti xut bn phm ny c ng k bo h. Khng phn no trong xut
bn phm ny c php sao chp hay pht hnh di bt k hnh thc hay phng tin no, hoc c
lu gi trong c s d liu hay h thng truy cp, m khng c s cho php trc bng vn bn ca Trng
i hc FPT.
Original Title: Business Decision Making

Author: BPP Learning Media
Publisher: BPP Learning Media.
ISBN 13 (Original edition): 9781 4453 6823 8
Original language published by BPP Learning Media. Copyright BPP Learning Media
All rights reserved. This translation published under license. No part of this work may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by
any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and
the publisher.
Vietnamese-language edition copyright 2013-2016 by FPT University. All rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-604-67-0101-1 (Vietnamese-language edition).
Lin h hp tc v ni dung bn dch ting Vit v phn phi:

Phng Bn quyn v Xut bn, Trng i hc FPT
Tng 1, Ta nh FPT Polytechnic, ng Hm Nghi, KT M nh I, T Lim, H Ni.
in thoi: (04) 7 305 9886 - (04) 7 308 0898.
Email: caodang@fpt.edu.vn.
Mc lc
Mc lc
Gii thiu chung....................................................................... vii
Hng dn hc vi gio trnh.................................................. ix
Phn A: Cc ngun thu thp d liu........................................ 1
Chng 1: Thu thp v lu tr d liu....................................................................... 3
Phn B: Cc phng php phn tch d liu........................ 71

Chng 2: Trnh by d liu..................................................................................... 73
Chng 3: phn tn v lch......................................................................... 117
Chng 4: S tng quan v hi quy.................................................................... 145
Chng 5: Phn tch chui thi gian...................................................................... 171
Phn C: Trnh by thng tin vi cc nh dng thch hp.....199

Chng 6: Trnh by thng tin bng bng tnh....................................................... 201
Chng 7: Bo co................................................................................................. 249
Phn D: Phn mm to thng tin.......................................... 291

Chng 8: Cc h thng thng tin qun tr............................................................. 293
Chng 9: Qun l hng tn kho............................................................................ 321
Chng 10: Cc cng c v phng php qun tr d n .................................... 363
Chng 11: Thm nh u t................................................................................ 415
Ph lc..................................................................................... 457
Cc bng ton hc................................................................. 463
Thut ng................................................................................ 467
iii
Mc lc chi tit
Mc lc chi tit
Gii thiu chung.......................................................................vii
Hng dn hc vi gio trnh..................................................ix
Phn A: Cc ngun thu thp d liu........................................1
Chng 1: Thu thp v lu tr d liu ..................................................................3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
D liu.................................................................................................. 4
Cc ngun d liu th cp................................................................. 10
Nghin cu s cp v th cp........................................................... 15
Ly mu.............................................................................................. 24
Cc phng php iu tra thu thp d liu........................................ 37
Thit k phiu iu tra........................................................................ 42
Lu tr d liu.................................................................................... 50
o lut bo v d liu Anh............................................................ 58
Phn B: Cc phng php phn tch d liu .......................... 71

Chng 2: Trnh by d liu ................................................................................ 73
1
2
3
4
Bng.................................................................................................... 74
Biu ................................................................................................ 76
Phn phi tn s................................................................................. 84
S bnh qun....................................................................................... 97
Chng 3: phn tn v lch ................................................................... 117

1
2
3
4
5
Khong.............................................................................................. 118
lch trung bnh v lch chun................................................ 125
H s bin thin................................................................................ 131
lch.............................................................................................. 134
Kim sot qu trnh bng thng k................................................... 136
Chng 4: S tng quan v hi quy ............................................................... 145

1
2
S tng quan................................................................................. 146

ng xu th.................................................................................... 155
Chng 5: Phn tch chui thi gian ................................................................ 171

1
2
3
Cc thnh phn ca chui thi gian................................................. 172

Xc nh xu hng........................................................................... 176
D on............................................................................................ 185
Phn C: Trnh by thng tin vi cc nh dng thch hp .... 199

Chng 6: Trnh by thng tin bng bng tnh ............................................... 201
1
iv
S dng bng tnh............................................................................ 202
Mc lc chi tit
2
3
4
Cng thc v hm s trong bng tnh.............................................. 207

Pivot table trong bng tnh................................................................ 223
V v din gii th......................................................................... 225
Chng 7: Bo co ............................................................................................. 249

1
2
3
4
5
Vit bo co...................................................................................... 250

S dng phn mm x l vn bn.................................................... 254
Vit bo co s dng Microsoft Word............................................... 263
Thuyt trnh kinh doanh.................................................................... 269
Thuyt trnh s dng PowerPoint..................................................... 275
Phn D: Phn mm to thng tin.......................................... 291

Chng 8: Cc h thng thng tin qun tr..................................................... 293
1
2
3
Cc yu cu thng tin ca t chc................................................... 294

Cc loi h thng thng tin............................................................... 299
Qun tr tri thc................................................................................. 309
Chng 9: Qun l hng tn kho...................................................................... 321

1
2
3
4
5
Mc ch ca qun l hng tn kho.................................................. 322

Phng php qun l hng tn kho n gin.................................. 325
M hnh hng tn kho....................................................................... 332
H thng hoch nh nhu cu nguyn vt liu.................................. 345
Mng li chui cung ng................................................................ 355
Chng 10: Cc cng c v phng php qun tr d n............................... 363

1
2
3
4
5
Qun tr d n................................................................................... 364

Cc phng php hoch nh v cung cp ngun lc..................... 367
Phn tch d n theo s mng.................................................... 372
Cc cng c hoch nh d n......................................................... 393
Phn mm qun tr d n................................................................. 400
Chng 11: Thm nh u t ..........................................................................415

1
2
3
4
Thm nh u t.............................................................................. 416

Cc phng php thm nh truyn thng....................................... 421
Phng php dng tin chit khu................................................... 425
Dng nin kim v dng nin kim vnh cu........................................ 440
Ph lc..................................................................................... 457
Cc bng ton hc................................................................. 463
Thut ng................................................................................ 467
Gii thiu chung
Gii thiu chung

B gio trnh Cm nang Kinh doanh (Business Essentials) ca Nh xut bn
BPP Learning Media, c i hc FPT c quyn dch v pht hnh trn c nc.
Nh cung cp nhng kin thc qun tr thit yu mt cch y , chnh xc, b
gio trnh tr thnh gii php hc tp n gin, ti u cho mi sinh vin ang
theo ui vn bng v chng ch lin quan n lnh vc kinh doanh.
Cc vn bng chng ch trong lnh vc ny lun i hi ngi hc phi n lc nghin
cu. Do , sinh vin thc s cn nhng ti liu o to i thng vo trng tm, c
xy dng gn kt vi nn tng kin thc v kinh nghim hc vin tch ly. B gio
trnh Cm nang Kinh doanh ca Nh xut bn BPP Learning Media c bin son
p ng nhng yu cu ny.
B gio trnh bao gm:
Cc ch chuyn su, thit yu cn c trong phm vi mn hc thuc

ngnh qun tr.
Nhiu bi tp thc hnh, cu hi n tp v ch tho lun gip sinh vin

lun hng th tin b trong hc tp.
Cc v d minh ha thc t v bi tp tnh hung c cp nht, mang li

tnh thc tin cho gio trnh.
B cc trnh by n gin, thn thin, gip sinh vin, c bit l sinh vin
phi bn ng d hc tp hn.
Danh mc thut ng y , thun li cho vic n tp kin thc.
Ngoi ra, ni dung ca mi chng c sp xp chun theo Ti liu hng dn

ca Pearson Edexcel (Edexcel Guidelines), do bao hm c tt c ch
quy nh trong Chng trnh o to bc Cao ng quc gia theo tiu chun Anh v
lnh vc Kinh doanh (Pearson BTEC Higher National qualifications in Business).
Mi chng bao gm:
Phn gii thiu v lit k cc mc tiu hc tp c th.
Tng kt chng, cu hi n tp i km p n, cng vi l phn p n bi

tp thc hnh.
S tm tt v k hiu ch dn gip nh hng ngi hc v kin thc c

trnh by trong chng.
vii
Gii thiu chung
Nhng cun sch khc trong B gio trnh tng ng theo cc hc phn quy
nh trong Chng trnh Cao ng quc gia Anh v lnh vc Kinh doanh (gi tt
l theo chun BTEC) c i hc FPT tuyn dch, bao gm:
Cc gio trnh thuc hc phn cn bn bt buc:
Hc phn 1:
Nhp mn kinh t hc
Hc phn 2:
Qun tr Ti chnh doanh nghip
Hc phn 3:
Hnh vi t chc
Hc phn 4:
Marketing cn bn
Hc phn 6:
Phn tch v ra quyt nh kinh doanh
Hc phn 7:
Chin lc v k hoch kinh doanh
Hc phn 8:
D n nghin cu
Cc gio trnh thuc hc phn chuyn ngnh t chn:

Hc phn 9:
K ton qun tr
Hc phn 11:
Kim ton ti chnh
Hc phn 15:
Qun tr doanh nghip
Hc phn 16:
Qun tr thng tin, tri thc v hot ng truyn thng trong

doanh nghip
Hc phn 17:
Nghin cu th trng
Hc phn 18:
Qung co v truyn thng trong kinh doanh
Hc phn 19:
Lp k hoch Marketing
Hc phn 20:
Qun tr hot ng bn hng
* Ghi ch: Mt s ta khc trong b gio trnh gc Business Essentials cha ph

hp vi ng cnh Vit Nam, nn i hc FPT tm thi khng tuyn dch. Cc t
chc, c nhn c nhu cu xin lin h Phng Bn quyn v Xut bn, thuc i
hc FPT hp tc trin khai xut bn cc ta cn li ny.
viii
Hng dn hc vi gio trnh
Hng dn hc vi gio trnh

Cun gio trnh ny c bin son vi nhng c trng ni bt, gip vic hc tp
hiu qu v c cht lng hn.
Mi chng bt u vi mt s tm tt, cho bit cc ni dung chnh ca
chng. Ti u mi ni dung chnh, s tm tt ny s c nhc li.
Trong qu trnh n tp, ngi hc c th ghi ch da trn nhng s ny.
Sau s tm tt l phn Gii thiu a bi hc trong chng vo ng
cnh c th. Tip n l phn Mc tiu bi hc, ch ra nhng ni dung m
bn s nghin cu xuyn sut chng .
Cc biu tng c trnh by dc l gio trnh gip nh hng cc ni
dung chi tit cho sinh vin nh sau:
Ch dn: nh hng ngi c theo sut cun sch, ch ra mi
lin kt gia cc phn ni dung.
nh ngha: Gii thch ngha ca cc thut ng chnh. Cui mi
gio trnh c bng Thut ng tng hp li cc t ny.
Bi tp thc hnh: Gip ngi hc kim tra li nhng kin thc
tip thu c. Thi hn gii bi tp thng c quy nh c
th v cui mi chng c cung cp p n.
Tho lun: Ch trong cc phn tho lun cho bn c hi
chia s quan im c nhn vi bn b, qua gip ngi hc
thy r nhng l hng kin thc ca mnh, cng nh cch hiu
khi nim ca ngi khc. Nu thi gian cho php, hy th
ging gii li cc khi nim hc cho ai . Vic ny rt hu
ch bn ghi nh cc ni dung trng yu v vic trao i s
cng gip cng c kin thc cho ngi hc.
e.g.
V d: Lin h nhng g bn hc vi thc t. Ngi hc hy c

gng t ngh ra cc v d khi nghin cu gio trnh ny.
Tng kt chng: Trnh by c ng cc thng tin chnh ca
mi chng, rt hu ch cho vic n tp v cng c kin thc.
Mi trang u c l sch tng i rng v cui mi chng u c mt s

trang trng, gip ngi hc c th ghi ch. Tn dng tin ch ny, bn s
khai thc c ti a hiu qu t gio trnh. Hy vit ra nhng suy ngh v
tng ca mnh, ghi chp li v d, t cu hi cho phn l thuyt, b sung
phn tham kho cho cc trang khc trong gio trnh v din t li nhng
chnh bng ngn t ring ca mnh.
Cui mi chng l phn Tng kt chng v Cu hi n tp km theo
p n. Bn hy s dng chng n luyn v cng c kin thc, v phn
ny s tng kt li ton b ni dung c cp trong chng. Cc cu hi
n tp gip kim tra li nhng g bn hc (Phn p n thng lin h ti
kin thc trong chng, nn nh , bn c th n li cc ni dung chnh
hc).
Cui gio trnh l bng tng hp Thut ng, gip ngi hc d dng tra cu.
ix
Phn A
Cc ngun thu thp
d liu
Chng
01
D liu
(Data)
Thu thp v lu tr
d liu
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
(Questionnaire design)
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
Gii thiu
D liu ca t chc l mt tp hp cc d kin th lin quan n doanh nghip v
mi trng ca doanh nghip. C th phn loi d liu theo nhiu cch nh nh
tnh/nh lng, ri rc/lin tc, bn trong/bn ngoi, chnh thc/khng chnh thc,
s cp/th cp.
Phn ln cng vic hng ngy ca nh qun l lin quan n vic s dng d liu
v thng tin c thu thp, lu tr ni b hay bn ngoi. Quyt nh lin quan n
k hoch v hot ng trong tng lai ca t chc cn kt hp cht ch cc thng
tin v hiu qu hot ng trc y, tim nng th trng trong tng lai, cc s liu
thng k ca ngnh v cng ty, v.v Tt c thng tin cn c thu thp, x l v
phn tch.
Trong chng ny, chng ta s nghin cu cng tc thu thp d liu. Trong Chng 2,
chng ta s xem xt cch phn tch d liu sau khi thu thp.
Mc tiu bi hc
Sau khi kt thc chng ny, bn c th:
Nm c cc loi d liu khc nhau.
Hiu c cc ngun d liu th cp.
Bit phng php ly mu ph hp s dng trong cc trng hp c th.
Nhn bit u im v nhc im ca thu thp d liu bng cch phng vn
v gi phiu iu tra qua bu in.
Thit k phiu iu tra.
1 D LIU
D liu
(Data)
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
1.1 D liu l g?
D liu l thut ng bn thng gp khi hc v cc phng php nh lng. Vy
d liu l g?
NH NGHA
D liu (data) ch n gin l mt thut ng "khoa hc" ch cc d kin thc t, s liu, thng tin
v gi tr o lng.
Mt s v d v d liu gm: S ngi thi k thi ly giy php li xe hng nm,
s bn thng mi i bng ghi c trong mt ma bng, li nhun sau thu trong
10 nm qua ca bn chui siu th ln nht.
1.2 Thuc tnh v bin

C nhiu loi d liu. im khc bit u tin lin quan ti d liu l thuc tnh
v bin.
NH NGHA
Thuc tnh (attribute) l c tnh m mt i tng c hoc khng c.
Ngi ta khng th o c thuc tnh. V d: Mt ngi c th l nam hoc l n.
Khng c thc o no xc nh c mt ngi nh th no th thuc v gii nam
v nh th no th thuc v gii n: gii tnh ca mt ngi l thuc tnh. Loi d liu
ny l d liu nh tnh.
Chng 1: Thu thp v lu tr d liu
NH NGHA
Bin (variable) l mt i lng c th o lng.
V d: Chiu cao ca mt ngi l bin c th o lng c theo mt thang o no
(nh cm). Loi d liu ny l d liu nh lng.
Bin ri rc v lin tc (discrete and continuous variable)
Bin c th tip tc c phn loi thnh bin ri rc v bin lin tc.
(a) Bin ri rc ch c th ly mt s gi tr trong mt tp hu hn hoc m
c. V d v bin ri rc nh vy gm c cc bn thng i Chachont
United ghi c khi vi Willford City, c giy v s ngi vo siu th
SupaSave SupaMarket Rutminster t 9h05 n 9h10 ca mt ngy c th.
Nu chng ta chn ngu nhin s bn thng trong khong t 0 n 10 th ch
c th l 2 bn ch khng th l 2 bn, c giy ca ngi Anh c th l
5 ch khng th l 5,193 v c th c 9 ngi vo siu th ch khng th
l 9,999 ngi.
(b) Bin lin tc c th nhn bt c gi tr no. Chng c o ch khng phi
m. V d: o chiu cao ca mt ngi, c th ch cn ly n s cm gn
nht; nhng khng c l do g m ta khng th o chnh xc n 1/100 cm.
Hai ngi c chiu cao ging nhau v s cm gn nht, nhng chc chn vn
c th khc nhau nu ta tin hnh o bng cc thang nh hn.
BI TP THC HNH 1
(10 PHT)
Xem xt cc cuc kho st sau y v xc nh mi cuc kho st ny thu thp d

liu v thuc tnh, bin ri rc hay bin lin tc.
(a) Kho st mt cun sch gio khoa mn thng k, xc nh xem c bao nhiu
biu trong sch.
(b) Kho st cc lon hp trong mt ca hng, xc nh liu mi lon c gn
mc gi hay khng.
(c) Kho st cc vn ng vin tm hiu xem h chy mt dm trong bao lu.
(d) Kho st chiu cao ca cc ct in tn nc Anh.
1.3 Cc ngun d liu

D liu do mt t chc thu thp c th l d liu ni b (t chnh t chc ) hoc d
liu bn ngoi (t bn ngoi t chc).
D liu ni b (internal data)
D liu ni b lin quan n cc hot ng hay giao dch c thc hin trong t chc,
v d cc cng vic hnh chnh nh trao i th t hoc tnh lng, sn xut, tiu th
sn phm hay cung cp dch v. Thng thng, cc hot ng ny u cn chi ph
v to ra doanh thu, nn a s cc d liu ni b thu thp c l d liu nh lng.
Cc ngun d liu ni b c th c phn loi theo cc phng ban trong t chc
(l ni pht sinh d liu) nh Phng Thu mua, Phng Sn xut, Phng Kinh doanh,
Phng Marketing v cc phng ban khc.

Thu thp d liu/thng tin t ni b t chc bao gm:
(a) Thit lp mt h thng thu thp hoc o lng d liu, hay ni cch khc
l phi bit thu thp nhng d liu g, tn s ra sao, ai thu thp v thu thp
bng phng php no, cng vi cch thc x l, sp xp (hoc lu tr) v
trao i d liu.
(b) Trong mt chng mc nht nh, vic thu thp da vo cc trao i khng
chnh thc gia nh qun l v nhn vin (giao tip trc tip, tho lun bui
hp, email...).
D liu bn ngoi (external data)
Cc t chc cn thu thp d liu lin quan n th gii bn ngoi hoc mi trng
ca t chc.
D liu lin quan n mi trng ca t chc c th c phn loi theo cc kha
cnh sau:
(a) Chnh tr (v d: chnh sch ca Chnh ph).
(b) Kinh t (v d: lm pht hay t gi hi oi).
(c) X hi (v d: thi quen mua sm hay th hiu).
(d) Cng ngh (v d: nguyn vt liu v phng php sn xut).
(e) Cnh tranh (v d: hnh vi ca khch hng, nh cung cp v i th cnh tranh).
1.4 D liu chnh thc v khng chnh thc

D liu t bn ngoi t chc c th l d liu chnh thc (formal) hoc khng chnh
thc (informal). Vic thu thp d liu khng chnh thc t cc ngun bn ngoi din
ra mi lc (c ch nh hay khng ch nh), v tt c chng ta u bit c chuyn
g ang xy ra trn th gii t Internet, bo ch, truyn hnh hay i pht thanh.
i vi mt s loi d liu, vic thu thp chnh thc t cc ngun bn ngoi l trch
nhim ca mi c nhn trong t chc. V d:
(a) Chuyn gia v thu trong t chc cn tp hp thng tin v thay i trong lut thu
v xc nh xem liu nhng thay i c nh hng n t chc hay khng.
(b) Cc cng ty chp hnh Lut Bo v D liu (Data Protection Act) nn b
nhim mt nhn vin ph trch ng k d liu c trch nhim tm hiu quy
trnh bo v cc thng tin c nhn.
(c) Cng tc nghin cu v pht trin cn nhn s thu thp d liu v cc
cng vic tng t m cc cng ty khc ang thc hin.
(d) Nghin cu th trng do cc chuyn gia m trch tm hiu kin v thi
mua hng ca cc khch hng tim nng.
1.5 Cc phng php thu thp d liu

C ba phng php thu thp d liu chnh, l: tng iu tra, iu tra mu v ghi
chp d liu hng ngy. Mi phng php c nhng u nhc im khc nhau.
Phng php no c chn la s ph thuc vo mt s nhn t.
Tng iu tra (census) - Phng php ny thu thp d liu v mi ngi hoc mi
i tng ca mt nhm hoc tng th. V th, nu bn thu thp d liu v cn nng
ca mi ngi trong phng th c th coi l tng iu tra phng ban. Bi thng tin v
mi ngi trong nhm c thu thp nn phng php ny c chnh xc cao v
nu tip tc phn tch chng ta c th thu c cc thng tin chi tit hn na v cc
phn nhm nh. Nhc im ca phng php ny nm chi ph v thi gian. Tin
6

hnh cuc tng iu tra cho mt tng th ln c th rt tn km chi ph v thi gian
so vi cc phng php khc.
iu tra mu (sample survey) - Trong phng php thu thp d liu ny, ch mt
b phn ca tng th c iu tra thu thp d liu. V th, nu bn thu thp d
liu v cn nng ca 10 ngi trong mt phng ban c 50 ngi, th c th coi l
mt cuc iu tra mu ca phng ban ch khng phi l mt cuc tng iu tra. u
im ca phng php ny l chi ph thp hn v thu c kt qu nhanh hn so vi
tng iu tra. Tt nhin, nu kch thc mu qu nh th kt qu iu tra c th khng
chnh xc v thng tin v cc phn nhm nh hn (cm dn c hoc khu vc a l)
thng khng th thu thp c nh trong phng php tng iu tra.
Ghi chp d liu hng ngy (administrative by-product data) - D liu c thu
thp bng cch ghi chp cc hot ng hng ngy ca t chc. Cc d liu ny c
th l: ngy sinh, ngy mt, tnh trng kt hn - ly d, thi gian my bay h cnh v
s xe my c ng k. V d: trc khi c cp giy chng nhn ng k kt
hn, cc cp v chng phi cung cp cho h tch vin thng tin v tui tc, gii tnh,
ni sinh, tnh trng hn nhn, a ch. u im chnh ca phng php ny l d
liu c thu thp cho tt c mi ngi s dng dch v ca t chc v kt qu
c chnh xc cao. D liu cng c thu thp mt cch lin tc v c th s dng
phn tch xu hng. Nhc im l thiu tnh linh hot, d liu ch gii hn trong
phm vi yu cu ca cc quy nh, cng vic hnh chnh (khng ging vi tng iu
tra c th thu thp d liu phm vi rng hn) v c quan kim sot d liu c th
hn ch s tip cn i vi ngi bn ngoi hoc i hi ph khi c yu cu cung
cp d liu.
1.6 D liu s cp v th cp
D liu c s dng trong mt cuc iu tra thng k, cho d l bin hay thuc tnh,
c th c phn loi thnh d liu s cp hoc d liu th cp.
NH NGHA
D liu s cp (primary data) c thu thp cho mc ch c th ca cc cuc iu tra ang c
tin hnh.
D liu th (raw data) l d liu s cp cha c x l, v d d liu ch l mt danh sch cc con s.
D liu th cp (secondary data) l d liu c thu thp u , cho mt mc ch no khc
nhng c th c s dng cho cuc iu tra ang c tin hnh.
C nhiu phng php ly d liu mu:
(a) Phng php quan st (observation): L mt cch ly d liu mu khi
cn thu thp d liu nh lng. V d: nu cn d liu v lu lng giao
thng trn ng vo mt thi im nht nh trong ngy, cc quan st vin
(hoc thit b ghi hnh) s m hoc ghi li s lng xe lu thng trn ng.
Chng ta c th s dng phng php quan st nghin cu hnh vi ngi
tiu dng, mc d nghin cu ny thng c tin hnh bng mt thc
nghim kim sot (controlled experiment).
(b) Phng php thc nghim (experimentation): Kt hp mt s k thut
c s dng trong thc nghim. Th hiu ca khch hng c th c xc
nh bng test m (blind testing). cp cao, cc chin lc marketing
khc nhau c th c th nghim trn th trng.
7

(c) Phng php s dng phiu iu tra (questionnaire): L phng php
iu tra nhanh chng vi chi ph thp, nhng li c mt s nhc im khin
kt qu sai lch.
(i) Ngi c iu tra (ngi in vo phiu iu tra) c th khng hiu
cu hi nn tr li sai hoc khng chnh xc. Vn ny s trm trng
hn i vi cc cu hi din t khng r rng.
(ii) Mt s lng ln cc phiu iu tra c th khng c hon li hoc
c hon li nhng ch mi hon thnh mt phn. iu ny c th dn
n cc kt qu sai lch, v ngi c iu tra c th l i tng m
cuc iu tra cn quan tm nht.
(iii) Ngi c iu tra c th in thng tin sai hoc khng chnh xc.
V d h qun cc d kin c th, a thng tin to n tng tt v
mnh hoc n gin ch v nghch ngm.
Phng php s dng phiu iu tra c th c tin hnh theo cc
cch sau:
(i) Phng vn qua in thoi.
(ii) Phng vn trc tip (do cc nh nghin cu th trng tin hnh ti nh
ca ngi c phng vn).
(iii) Gi phiu iu tra qua ng bu in.
(iv) T ngi iu tra hon thnh phiu iu tra, chng hn bng cch quan
st ngi c iu tra ti cc im bn hng.
(d) Phng php nh tnh (qualitative techniques): L phng php tng
i tn km nhng c th thu c kt qu c gi tr. Phng php ny c
thc hin thng qua cc cuc phng vn t do (khng c cu trc) i vi c
nhn hoc mt nhm ngi. Phng vn khng cu trc c th gy kh khn
cho vic phn tch, nhng kt qu thu c gi tr hn v khng b nh hng
bi cc gi hay gii hn la chn hnh thc phng vn c cu trc.
(e) Phng php lp nhm khch hng (consumer panel) hay phng
php lp nhm th nghim (test panel): Mt s cng ty nghin cu
lp ra cc nhm khch hng i din, nhng ngi ny nht tr s cung
cp thng tin thng xuyn v quan im hoc thi quen mua sm ca h
qua cuc phng vn trc tip hoc phiu iu tra gi qua ng bu in.
Nhm khch hng tr li phng vn trc tip c gi l nhm nh gi ti
nh (home audit panel); nhm khch hng thc hin mt bn ghi chp bng
vn bn v tri nghim v quan st l nhm tr li theo nht k mua hng
(diary panel). V d: mt nhm h gia nh c th ghi nht k mua hng v
giao nht k cho cng ty nghin cu th trng. Cc nhm khch hng c
th c thit lp cho mt giai on ngn hn hoc di hn.
(f) Phng php nghin cu h thng thng mi (trade audit) v nghin
cu h thng bn l (retail audit): Phng php nghin cu h thng
thng mi c thc hin vi c nh bn bun v bn l, cn phng php
nghin cu h thng bn l ch lin quan n cc nh bn l. Cng ty nghin
cu c iu tra vin n i l c la chn kim k nh k hng tn
kho v hng xut kho, do c th c tnh c s lng hng tiu th.
Nghin cu h thng bn l lin quan ti vic gim st lin tc hot ng bn
l, nn rt hu ch i vi cng ty sn xut v l do sau:
(i) Cc thay i trong doanh s bn l s cnh bo sm cho nh sn
xut cc vn m h c th sm gp phi trong doanh thu bn hng
ngoi nh my.

(ii) Nghin cu h thng bn l ch ra cc xu hng di hn trn thng
trng, do cung cp thng tin hu ch cho vic lp k hoch
marketing chin lc.
(iii) Trong tng lai gn, nghin cu h thng bn l cho thy cn thay i
trong chnh sch gi c, cc chng trnh xc tin hoc qung co bn
hng, chnh sch phn phi, thit k bao b hoc thit k sn phm.
u im khi s dng d liu s cp l iu tra vin bit d liu c ly t u, thu
thp trong hon cnh no, d liu c hn ch g khng, c y hay khng.
Ngc li, d liu th cp c nhng nhc im sau:
(a) iu tra vin c th khng bit d liu c hn ch g khng bi v h khng
trc tip iu tra.
(b) D liu c th khng hon ton ph hp vi mc ch s dng.
Mc d d liu th cp c nhng nhc im trn nhng chng vn c s dng
trong nhiu trng hp, n gin l v chng sn c, chi ph thp khi m chi ph cho
vic thu thp d liu s cp vt qu gi tr tng thm ca chng.
BI TP THC HNH 2
(5 PHT)
Xem xt cc cuc kho st sau y v xc nh mi cuc kho st ny thu thp d

liu v thuc tnh, bin ri rc hay bin lin tc.
CH DN
Sau khi bit mt s khi nim v cc loi d liu khc nhau, chng ta chuyn sang nghin cu vn
qun l cc d liu ny.
2 CC NGUN D LIU TH CP
D liu
(Data)
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
2.1 Tm kim d liu trn Internet

Internet l h thng kt ni cc mng ton cu. Bng cch s dng cc trnh duyt
web nh Internet Explorer, chng ta c th truy cp thng tin v cc doanh nghip,
hc vin, t chc thng mi, c quan Chnh ph, t chc y t, khoa hc cng nh
cc trang c nhn qua mng.
WEBLINK
truy cp Internet ngi dng cn c mt my tnh, mt m-em v ng k vi nh cung cp
dch v nh American On Line (AOL), Demon hoc BT Internet. Tn trang web thng bt u bng
www. Cc cng ty Anh c trang web vi tn di dng v nguyn l www.companyname.co.uk
(companyname: tn cng ty), nu nhng cng ty ny nhm ti i tng khch hng quc t th tn
trang web s di dng www.companyname.com. Tn trang web ca cc t chc phi li nhun kt
thc bng .org, v d www.charityname.org (charityname: tn t chc t thin). Tn trang web ca
mt trng i hc hay vin nghin cu c th kt thc bng ".ac" nh www.universityname.ac hay
.edu nh www.universityname.edu (universityname: tn trng i hc).
Trn gc ca mt doanh nghip, vic tm kim d liu ca cc cng ty trn Internet
nhm mc ch tm hiu v cng ty cnh tranh, tm nh cung ng hoc thit lp h s
khch hng v khch hng tim nng. Trc kia, cch duy nht c cc thng tin
ny l tm kim trn ti liu in; nhng hin nay cc trang web ca cng ty c y
thng tin hu ch nh hnh nh sn phm, h thng phn phi, bng d liu, lch s
cng ty, cc bi vit v cng ty v i khi c cc ti liu lin quan n ti chnh. Thng
tin kh y , cp nht hn cc ti liu in v c sn s dng ngay.
Google, Lycos hay Yahoo! l cc cng c tm kim rt hu ch, gip tm c bt c
thng tin no bn cn trong hng triu trang web. Ch cn nh t kha hoc cm
t vo cng c tm kim l bn c th tm kim hng lot thng tin lin quan trn cc
trang web.
10
WEBLINK
Mt s trang web cho php bn ti v cc bi vit min ph nh www.ft.com, trong khi mt s trang
web khc (nh trang web ca Economist Intelligence Unit, c quan nghin cu v phn tch kinh t
ton cu -EIU) ch cung cp thng tin cho nhng khch hng ng k (v tr ph s dng dch v). B
i t in bch khoa ton th Encyclopedia Britannica cng c a ln mng ti a ch www.
britannica.com v bn c th tra cu bng cch nhp mc t cn tra hay duyt cc mc t theo th
t bng ch ci.
Nhiu bi vit trn cc trang web c nh dng PDF. Bn ch cn ti v phn mm
Adobe Acrobat Reader min ph c tp PDF v trang web thng c sn ng
lin kt bn c th ti v phn mm ny.
Wikipedia (www.wikipedia.org) l bch khoa ton th a ngn ng, tng hp,
min ph trn trang web. Tn ca n kt hp cc t wiki (cng ngh to ra cc
website c tnh cng tc, bt ngun t t wiki trong ting Ha-oai, ngha l nhanh)
v encyclopedia (bch khoa ton th). Hng triu bi vit ca Wikipedia (trong c
khong 4,1 triu bi ting Anh tnh n u nm 2013) c tt c bn c tnh
nguyn trn khp th gii vit v bt c ai truy cp vo trang web Wikipedia u c
th chnh sa cc bi . Hin nay bch khoa ton th trc tuyn ny l ti liu tham
kho ln nht, bao trm nhiu ch v c s dng rng ri nht trn Internet.
Nhng ngi khng ng h Wikipedia cho rng ni dung trn website ny khng
thng nht v c s sai lch mt cch h thng. H cng cho rng qu trnh bin tp
ni dung hng n s ng thun nn tin cy v tnh chnh xc ca Wikipedia
cng l mt vn ng quan tm. Mt s khc tp trung ph phn cc thng tin trn
website s nh hng n cc vn an ninh, v c nhng ngi c ph hoi v
ng cc thng tin khng ng hoc cha c xc thc. Tuy nhin, y vn l mt
trang web ngi s dng tm nhanh bt c ch no h mun.
C hng nghn nhm ngi s dng (cng gi l nhm tin tc hoc nhm tho lun)
trn Internet bao trm gn nh mi ch . Cc nhm c phn loi theo cc ch
nh s thch, gii tr, tin hc, khoa hc, vn ha, tn gio v nhiu ch khc.
WEBLINK
Cc danh b cng l ngun d liu hu ch tra cu. Chng cung cp thng tin chi tit v cc cng
ty cung ng hoc tiu th hng ha v l ngun d liu thng c dng lp cc danh sch
mu (danh sch cng ty hoc ngi c phng vn). Cc danh b cng c th cung cp h s cng
ty, cc thng tin chi tit lin quan ti quy m ca cng ty nh s nhn vin, doanh s hoc cho
bit cng ty l i l hay nh sn xut. Trang vng (Yellow Pages) www.yell.co.uk l mt trong
nhng danh b tng hp y nht v cng ty Anh, v cc cng ty u c to mc lu tn v
s in thoi vo danh b ny. Cc nc khc cng c Trang vng trn Internet.
11

C s d liu trc tuyn v d liu th trng
WEBLINK
C s d liu trc tuyn (online database), nh ca Dun v Bradstreet (www.dnb.com), cung cp
thng tin v cc doanh nghip theo ngnh ngh, s nhn vin v doanh thu. Dch v nghin cu th
trng doanh nghip hng u ProQuest ca Dialog (www.dialog.com) cho php truy cp hng lot
thng tin v kinh t, thng mi, gm tin tc lu tr t hn cc n phm, bo co ti chnh cng ty,
bo co nghin cu th trng, d liu quc gia, d liu kinh t v bo co ca nhng cng ty mi
gii. Mt ngun d liu nghin cu th trng hu ch, cung cp cc bo co hon chnh hay mt
phn bo co l trang www.marketresearch.com. Trang ny cho php bn tip cn kho d liu gm
hn 400.000 n phm ca hn 700 cng ty nghin cu.
Ngy cng c nhiu trang web cung cp cc loi ti liu cho cc nh nghin cu m
khng phi ng k, mc d bn thng phi tr ph c hoc ti v mt phn hay
ton b bo co. Trang mc lc v phn tm tt ca cc bo co thng c sn trn
Internet v chng nhiu khi cng thng tin cho nhng ai ch cn xem xt tng
quan v mt vn no .
Cc ngun d liu bn ngoi khc gm ngn hng, nhng ngi mi gii chng
khon, cc t chc ngh nghip v thng mi, cng ty truyn thng, chnh quyn
a phng v cc t chc do Chnh ph ti tr.
2.2 D liu ca Chnh ph v cc n phm chnh thc

Anh, cun Nin gim Thng k (Annual Abstract of Statistics) gip ngi c d
dng tip cn vi cc s liu thng k v c sn cc bn cng ti C quan HMSO
(Her Majestys Stationery Office, tm dch, Vn phng N Hong Anh). Bn c th
mua trc tuyn cun sch ny v nhiu n phm khc ca Chnh ph trn trang
web www.tso-online.co.uk.
WEBLINK
Website ca cc c quan Chnh ph l ngun thng tin v d liu tuyt vi. Cng thng tin truy
cp tt c trang web ca Chnh ph Anh l www.gov.uk. Nhiu ti liu thng k ca Chnh ph trc
y ch c dng bn in nh Social Trends (Xu hng x hi), Economic Trends (Xu hng kinh t) v
Regional Trends (Xu hng vng), hin nay c min ph trn mng di dng PDF ti trang web
ca Cc Thng k Quc gia (www.statistics.gov.uk). Trang web ny cho php tm kim theo cc ch
nh nng lm ng nghip, thng mi, nng lng, cng nghip, gio dc, ti phm v php
lut, th trng lao ng, dn s
Gi bn l cng rt quan trng i vi nhiu ngi s dng.
(a) i vi Chnh ph Anh, Ch s Gi Bn l (Retail Prices Index - RPI) cho bit
mc thnh cng trong cng tc chng lm pht. ( Vit Nam, chnh ph
thng s dng Ch s Gi Tiu dng - Consumer Price Index - CPI)
(b) i vi ngi lao ng, ch s RPI cho bit lng cn tng ln bao nhiu
theo kp vi mc lm pht.
12

(c) i vi ngi tiu dng, ch s RPI cho bit mc tng gi d bo cho hng
ha trong cc ca hng.
(d) i vi doanh nghip, ch s RPI cho bit chi ph trn thc t tng ln bao
nhiu trong nhng nm, thng gn y.
(e) i vi ngi hng lng hu v ngi nhn tin bo him an sinh x hi,
s bin ng ch s RPI gip h cp nht mc phc li.
Mt trong nhng dch v thng k chnh ca Chnh ph Anh, cung cp ngun d liu
phong ph l Tng iu tra dn s c thc hin nh k mi nm mt ln. Cc
nh nghin cu s dng kt qu cc cuc iu tra ny phn khc dn s theo nhn
khu hc v lp k hoch iu tra (v d lp cc mu ch tiu).
WEBLINK
Trang web v lut lao ng Anh www.emplaw.com cho php tip cn thng tin cp nht, ng thi
lit k cc c vn php lut l nhng chuyn gia trong lnh vc ny.
WEBLINK
Mt ngun d liu na ca Chnh ph Anh v cc cng ty l website www.companieshouse.gov.uk,
cung cp d liu ti chnh v d liu khc ca cc cng ty ng k Anh. Bn c th tm kim d
liu theo tn cng ty hoc s ng k duy nht ca mi cng ty.
Ngoi thng tin c bn, min ph v cc cng ty, ngi s dng c th mua ti liu
v bo co vi mt khon tin phi chng thanh ton bng th tn dng qua ng
in t. Ti liu v bo co ny c th bao gm cc hnh nh c qut mi nht v
bng cn i k ton, doanh thu hng nm, thng tin b nhim v cc khon vay cm
c cha tr ca cng ty.
C nhiu n phm chnh thc khc bn c th truy cp nh:
(a) Hng qu, Ngn hng Trung ng Anh u pht hnh mt n phm bao gm
d liu v cc ngn hng Anh, lng cung tin, cc giao dch ti chnh cng
nh vay mn ca Chnh ph.
(b) Hi ng Pht trin Kinh t c lp thuc B Pht trin Kinh t Quc gia cng
b nhiu d liu v cc ngnh kinh t.
(c) Cc c quan khc nh Cc Thng k Kim loi Th gii c th cung cp d
liu ca cc th trng quc t.
(d) Cc c quan quc t nh Nin gim Thng k Quc t ca Lin Hip Quc
(chi tit v thng mi hng ha); T chc Hp tc v Pht trin Kinh t
(OECD) thu thp s liu ngoi thng ca cc nc thnh vin (Thng k
Ngoi thng hng thng ca OECD), d bo kinh t v m ca cc nc
thnh vin (Vin cnh Kinh t ca OECD) v c quan Thng k Ti chnh
Quc t ca Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF) cng b cc s liu v cn cn thanh
ton quc t cng nh cc vn lin quan.
13
BI TP THC HNH 3
(5 PHT)
Bn s tm thy loi thng tin hng ngy no v cc vn ti chnh trong thi bo

Financial Times?
2.3 D liu ni b v d liu ghi chp hng ngy

Cng ty c th c mt lng ln thng tin khc, tuy khng dnh cho nghin cu bn
ang tin hnh, nhng li hu ch trong nhng tnh hung khc v c lu tr trong
cc phng ban khc nhau.
(a) Phng K ton (Accounts department) s c cc d liu ti chnh, ti liu
hng dn chnh sch k ton, chi tit v thu, bo co k ton qun tr v
bng cn i k ton.
(b) Phng Bn hng v Marketing (Sales and Marketing deparment) s gi
cc bo co bn hng theo vng, chi tit bn hng theo khch hng v theo
sn phm, bo co nghin cu v i th cnh tranh, khiu ni ca khch
hng, bo co nghin cu th trng v tim nng ca th trng, chin lc
xy dng thng hiu, gi tr v chi tit lin quan ti cc chui phn phi.
(c) Phng Sn xut v Vn hnh (Production and Operation department) s
c cc d liu vn hnh, lu quy trnh, gi c u vo v chi ph sn phm,
chi ph vn chuyn, chi tit v hiu sut v cng sut.
(d) Phng Nhn s (Human resources department) s lu tr cc d liu v
s lng nhn vin, quy trnh tuyn dng, chng trnh o to, chi tit v
thay i nhn s v chi tit thanh ton lng.
NH NGHA
Kho d liu (data warehouse) gm mt c s d liu, cha d liu c tp hp t cc h thng vn
hnh khc nhau, cng cc cng c bo co v truy vn d liu.
Kho d liu gm d liu t nhiu ngun khc nhau, v d h thng x l n t
hng, bt ton trong s ci, giao dch bng th tn dng, d liu nhn khu hc v
d liu mua hng t my thanh ton ti siu th v ca hng bn l. Kt qu phi
l mt tp d liu nht qun, sn sng s dng cho phn tch qun tr v ra quyt
nh cng nh cc mc ch nghin cu. l tt c d liu ghi chp hng ngy, tuy
khng c thu thp trong c s d liu cho mt mc ch c th, nhng li l d
liu th cp hu ch.
NH NGHA
Khai thc d liu (data mining) l phn tch mt lng ln d liu nhm tm ra cc mi quan h,
mu hnh, lin kt ( c nhn din di dng tim nng hoc cha tng c bit) hng dn
cho vic ra quyt nh v d on hnh vi trong tng lai.
14

(a) Mi quan h (association) - Mt s kin c tng quan vi mt s kin
khc. V d trong cc ln khch hng mua t tr em dng mt ln, c mt t
l s ln nht nh h mua thm khn t cho tr em.
(b) Trnh t (sequence) - Mt s kin dn n mt s kin khc sau , v d
tng nng sut sau khi tng lng.
(c) Phn loi (classification) - Nhn din cc mu v t chc d liu mi sau
, v d nhn din cc thng tin, c im ca khch hng thc s mua
hng.
(d) Phn nhm (clustering) - Tm kim v th hin trc quan nhm cc d kin
trc y cha bit. Cng c khai thc d liu s khm ph cc cch lp
nhm khc nhau trong d liu.
(e) D on (forecasting) - n gin l khm ph cc m hnh d liu gip d
on v tng lai.
Khai thc d liu cng c th c s dng xc nh cc khch hng c nhn c
s thch ring hoc xc nh s thch ca mt nhm khch hng c th.
3 NGHIN CU S CP V TH CP
D liu
(Data)
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
3.1 Xc nh vn
Khi tin hnh nghin cu, vic xc nh vn nghin cu mt cch cn thn l rt
cn thit. Khi bn chun b nghin cu, hy t t cho mnh nhng cu hi sau:
Mnh bit g v lnh vc ca ti nghin cu?

Mnh cn tm ra iu g?
Cc vn chnh lin quan l g?
C cc quan im khc nhau v ti ny khng?
C lnh vc no khc lin quan ti ti ny?
Ai l ngi s tr li cc cu hi iu tra?
Cc cu hi trn cng phng n tr li s gip bn c nh hng v hiu bit cc

vn thuc v ti nghin cu.
15

to ra cc yu cu thng tin/d liu bn cn xc nh (v lp bo co) cc vn
sau:
Phm vi.
Trng tm.
Bi cnh.
Phm vi iu tra (scope of your enquiries)

Bn cn xc nh r ranh gii cho vn mnh ang tin hnh nghin cu.
(a) Khong thi gian thu thp d liu. iu ny c th cn xem xt v:
(i) Tn s (v d, xem xt cc bo co ti chnh - hng nm).
(ii) Ngy bt u v kt thc ca s kin bn ang m t (v d quyt nh
mua mt h thng thng tin mi c tin hnh vo lc no).
(iii) Khong thi gian hp l cho ti ang nghin cu (v d vic nh gi
chi ph v hiu qu ca mt h thng thng tin mi cn mt khong thi
gian di - hai hoc ba nm ch khng ch mt nm).
(b) Khu vc a l - cc doanh nghip, ngnh cng nghip hoc mi trng kinh
doanh ton cu, quc t, vng hay a phng.
(c) Loi hnh ngnh kinh doanh hoc lnh vc kinh doanh.
(d) Quy m thc hin - v d, kim ton vin xem xt khon mc trng yu v/
hoc c tnh i din, khng phi l mi th.
Bn cng c th phi iu chnh phm vi khi lp bo co v vn nghin cu - v
d, nu bn chn mt khong thi gian c bit th phi c l do chnh ng (nh
trc v sau khi ban hnh cc quy nh mi).
Trng tm phn tch (focus of analysis)
Trng tm c ngha l bn phi xc nh cn thu thp d liu v ci g.
Di y l mt vi v d:
(a) Cc c nhn (v d, trong vn lin quan ti cc chnh sch to ng lc).
(b) Cc nhm ngi (v d, mt phng, i, nhm no , nh nhm bn hng,
nh cung cp).
(c) Cc quy trnh v th tc trong mt t chc (v d lm th no a ra cc
quyt nh u t).
(d) Cc s kin, hnh ng hoc quyt nh (v d, ban hnh mt quy nh mi,
hoc quyt nh mua mt chi nhnh).
(e) Cc d liu u vo (v d nguyn vt liu, thng tin) hoc d liu u ra.
(f) Ton b t chc.
D nhin, bn c th thu thp d liu v mt s nhm i tng nu trn.
Bi cnh (context)
Bi cnh c hiu l cc nhn t thuc v mi trng thuc phm vi vn
nghin cu, nh cc c im ring ca cng ty s nh hng ti:
(a) Cc phng php thu thp d liu c s dng; v
(b) Nhng ni dung nghin cu bn cn xc nh.
V d, cc vn v to ng lc i vi cc nh qun l trong mt cng ty va c
mua li v tng c nhng t gim bin ch ln, c th kh khc bit, so vi mt
cng ty ang lm n thnh cng v c nhu cu tuyn dng thm nhn s.
16
e.g.
V D
NHIM V NGHIN CU
Gi nh cng ty yu cu bn phn tch nh hng ca quy nh lut php hin hnh

hoc quy nh lut php sp c ban hnh lin quan n cc quan h kinh doanh
gia cng ty vi cc nh cung cp. Quy nh mi ca Chnh ph cho php nh cung
cp yu cu khch hng phi thanh ton tin li cho cc ha n tr chm. Di y
l mt vi nhim v nghin cu.
1 Thm d kin - Liu mi ngi trong Phng Thu mua ca bn c bit quy nh
mi khng? H c quan tm cc dng ch in nh trong hp ng m c kh nng
cp ti trch nhim thanh ton ca cng ty hay khng? Phng Bn hng th
sao? Cng ty c mun khch hng ca h phi tr li cho cc ha n thanh
ton mun hay khng?
2 Phn tch - R sot s ci ghi cc khon phi tr nh cung cp v cc khon phi
thu t khch hnh cho cc k hn thanh ton. Thit hi tim n ln nht l g nu
p dng quy nh mi ny? Nu cng ty thanh ton sm hn, th liu c ht hn
mc thu chi ngn hng khng? Nu coi ngi cho vay l mt ngun cp tn
dng, th s tn bao nhiu cho h?
3 M t d kin thc t - Nu cng ty c mt lc lng bn hng ln, bn c th nu c cho php - gi phiu iu tra cho mt nhm mu (c th bao gm tt
c h!) hi h c bit v quy nh mi hay khng v cc iu khon cng nh
iu kin hin ti ang c p dng. Mt phiu iu tra tng t c th c
gi n Phng Mua hng.
3.2 Nghin cu s cp, th cp v tam cp

Nghin cu s cp (primary research) - Cng c gi l nghin cu ti hin
trng. Khng th c thng tin, nu bn khng tin hnh cc cuc iu tra ca ring
mnh. Thng tin c th c thu thp di dng phiu iu tra, cuc phng vn
chuyn su v phiu iu tra gi qua ng bu in hoc phiu iu tra phng vn
trc tip. i vi nghin cu th trng th nghin cu s cp bao gm:
(a) Th nghim marketing (test marketing) - a mt trong s sn phm ca
cng ty vo mt quy hng chn trc xc nh nhu cu; v
(b) R sot i th cnh tranh (competitor scans) - Ti cc ca hng bn sn
phm hoc cung cp dch v tng t vi sn phm hay dch v m cng ty
bn mun cung cp. Vic thu thp ti liu lin quan ti qung co, khuyn
mi hay cc ti liu khc ti im bn hng ca i th cnh tranh c th c
bit hu ch cho cc cng vic sau ny.
Nghin cu (s cp) bng iu tra l mt cch thc hiu qu v mt chi ph, khi mun
bit mi ngi ngh g, mun g, cn g v lm g. C hai loi nghin cu bng iu
tra ch yu:
(a) Nghin cu nh lng (quantitative research) lin quan n cc con s
v phn tch thng k, l phng php in hnh trong cc cuc iu tra quy
m ln. Nghin cu nh lng cung cp d liu bng s, chng hn con s
trong cu tr li ca nhng ngi c iu tra vi cng mt bng cu hi.
Theo phng php ny, bng cch ni chuyn vi mt s lng ngi tng
i nh, bn c th tm ra cc c trng cho mt tng th ln hn nhiu. Tuy
nhin, nhng ngi c phng vn (nhm mu) phi l nhm i din ca
nhm tng th ang cn iu tra v phng php ny cng ch hiu qu khi
phiu iu tra ch bao gm cc cu hi ph hp vi i tng iu tra v vn
cn nghin cu.
17

(b) Nghin cu nh tnh (qualitative research) cng l mt qu trnh thu thp
d liu s cp. Cc phng php chnh ca nghin cu ny l phng vn
m, c th l phng vn chuyn su mt-hi-mt (mt ngi phng vn mt
ngi) hoc tho lun nhm (nhm tp trung) v cc k thut phng chiu
(projective technique). Hnh thc ca d liu thu thp c l cc mu tng
thut, li k ch khng phi l cc cu tr li ch gii hn cc con s. Mc
ch chnh ca nghin cu nh tnh l tm hiu hnh vi v nhn thc ca mi
ngi, ch khng phi l nh gi h. im mu cht ca nghin cu nh
tnh l cho php ngi tr li ni ln iu h cm nhn v suy ngh trc
nhng cu hi nhanh, linh hot ca ngi phng vn, ch khng phi l
a ra cu tr li cho cu hi c lp sn (v thng cc phng n tr li
cng c sn chn) trong phiu iu tra.
BI TP THC HNH 4
(5 PHT)
Bn c mi tham gia vo mt nhm tho lun v mt loi ng cc n sng mi

ang c sn xut. Nh sn xut cn bit cm ngh ca bn v sn phm ny. Vy
phi tin hnh kiu nghin cu no?
Nghin cu nh lng
Nghin cu nh tnh
Mc tiu/ lng ha d liu v khi qut tm hiu cc l do v ng lc

Mc ch kt qu thu c t mt mu cho tim n.
tng th.
bit bn cht ca vn , nu
o lng mc tc ng ca cc tng v/hoc gi thuyt
cc quan im v kin khc nhau cho nghin cu nh lng.
trong mt mu c chn.
bit cc xu hng ph bin
i khi thc hin nghin cu nh trong suy ngh v kin.
tnh sau tm cc kt qu mi.
Mu
Thng mt nhm ln cc trng Thng mt nhm nh cc trng

hp i din cho tng th.
hp khng phi l i din.
La chn ngu nhin ngi c Chn ngi c iu tra theo ch
iu tra.
tiu nh trc.
Thu thp
d liu
Phng php c cu trc nh Phng php khng c cu trc

cuc phng vn trn ng hoc hoc bn cu trc, v d cuc
qua in thoi.
phng vn chuyn su ring hoc
tho lun nhm.
Phn tch Lp bng d liu thng k.

Khng mang tnh thng k.
d liu
Cc kt qu mang tnh kt lun
v thng m t bn cht ca
tng th.
18
Nghin cu nh lng
Kt qu
Nghin cu nh tnh
c s dng kin ngh v C tnh cht thm d v/hoc iu

hnh ng c tin hnh sau . tra.
Cc kt qu khng mang tnh kt
lun v khng c s dng
khi qut ha v tng th.
Pht trin hiu bit ban u v
thit lp c s hp l cho qu trnh
ra quyt nh sau ny.
CH DN
Trong cc phn sau y, chng ta s xem xt tng loi hnh iu tra cng cc u nhc im
ca chng.
Mc d iu tra cho chng ta mt phng thc nhanh chng, hiu qu v c chi ph
hp l thu thp c d liu yu cu, nhng vic tin hnh cng khng h n
gin. Nu khng c k nng, s kho lo v thnh tho th cc kt qu c th khng
cn chnh xc do c s thin lch hoc li v cc kt lun rt ra sau s l v ch.
Mt v d ni ting v vn ny xy ra nhiu nm trc y M, khi ngi
dn c hi trong mt cuc thm d kin (di dng mt cuc iu tra) v vic
Tng thng tip theo thuc ng Dn ch hay ng Cng ha. iu tra c
tin hnh nhng li theo mt phng php khng hp l. Nghin cu vin gi
in thoi cho mi ngi, v trong nhng ngi c gi in c nhiu ngi
thuc ng Cng ha hn ng Dn ch. Cuc iu tra l v ch v n khng
c ln k hoch hp l.
L do cuc thm d kin ny tr nn qu t l tng th ca cuc iu tra khng
c xc nh hp l. Khi thu thp d liu, t tng th c ngha l tp hp ton
b cc phn t s c xem xt. Cuc thm d kin nn s dng tng th tt c
ngi dn M tui b phiu, nhng trong thc t n li s dng tng th tt c
ngi dn M c in thoi.
C ba loi li chnh c th xut hin trong cc phng php nghin cu thu thp
d liu:
(a) Li ly mu (sampling error) pht sinh khi mu ca tng th c iu tra
(nu vic iu tra khng tin hnh vi mi phn t ca tng th) khng i
din cho tng th. V d, nu mu dn s ca mt thnh ph ch bao gm tr
di ba thng tui, th mu ny hin nhin khng th l i din cho dn s
ca thnh ph.
(b) Li tr li (response error) c th xy ra ngay c khi mi phn t ca tng
th u c iu tra v pht sinh do nhng ngi c iu tra hoc khng
th (do khng quan tm, qun, khng tr li r c) hoc khng sn sng
(do p lc thi gian, s mt quyn ring t) tr li.
(c) Li khng tr li (non-response error) c th xy ra khi ngi c iu
tra t chi tham gia cuc iu tra hoc khng nh (v d trong trng hp
phng vn trc tip ti nh).
19
CH DN
Chng ta s tp trung vo vic ly mu trong phn tip theo.
Nghin cu th cp (secondary research) - L nghin cu khi bn s dng thng
tin c ngi khc thu thp qua cc nghin cu s cp. Trc khi tin hnh bt
k nghin cu s cp no chng ta u nn xem xt cc nghin cu th cp trc
bi d liu c th tn ti, c th c tp hp vi chi ph thp hn nhiu v rt
hu ch trong vic nh hng vn hoc pht trin cc gi thuyt. Cc li ch khc
ca nghin cu th cp l:
(a) Cung cp mt c s cho nghin cu s cp. Thm ch nu khng p ng
c cc yu cu ct yu ca nghin cu s cp, th nghin cu th cp
cng c vai tr trong vic xc nh cc bin thit yu cho bt k nghin cu s
cp no c tin hnh sau v gip xc nh cc xu hng chnh.
(b) ng vai tr thay th cho nghin cu hin trng. D liu c cng b c
th p ng tt c cc mc tiu nghin cu hin ti, m khng cn tin hnh
thm cc nghin cu s cp tn km. Thm ch nu n khng tr li c tt
c cc cu hi, th phm vi v chi ph cho nghin cu s cp cng c th c
gim nhiu.
(c) C c thng tin v cc cng ty khc m khng cn cho h bit v vic
nghin cu. V d, nu t chc mun thu tm mt cng ty (mc tiu) khc,
h c th thu thp thng tin mt cch kn o hn so vi nghin cu s cp
gy n o khin mc tiu phng vi tnh hung ny.
Tuy nhin, trc khi s dng d liu th cp, bn cn kim tra:
Liu d liu th cp c thch hp khng?

Chi ph thu thp c n.
Tnh sn c ca d liu.
Mc sai lch c th c trong d liu.
Tnh chnh xc ca d liu.
Liu d liu p ng y cc mc tiu nghin cu hay khng?
Nghin cu tam cp (tertiary research) - L nghin cu trong bn s dng

nghin cu th cp ca nhng ngi khc. Nhn chung, nn trnh nghin cu
tam cp.
Bn nn tin hnh dng nghin cu no?
Di y l mt v d t mt bi lun ca sinh vin cha tt nghip v cha c
cng b. Liu bn c th xc nh c cc lnh vc nghin cu s cp v th cp?
20
e.g.
V D
NGHIN CU S CP V TH CP
Mc ch l tm hiu v thng tin mi trng m mt cng ty sn sng cung cp cho

cc i tc bn ngoi v li ch m cc thng tin ny mang li. Ti cho rng phng
php tt nht thu thp thng tin ny l chnh mnh tr thnh i tc bn ngoi ca
cng ty ny, sau vit th yu cu h cung cp cc bo co thng nin v bt k
thng tin mi trng no cha c cng b. Theo cch ny, nghin cu ca ti s
khng b nh hng bi s thin lch do thng tin cng ty a ra, nh c th gp
trong mt cuc tng iu tra hoc phng vn.
Cc so snh ch c tin hnh da trn thng tin m ti nhn c. Thng tin ny
kh hn ch bi thc t cn nhiu ngun thng tin hn na, tuy nhin y l mu
thng tin i din m ngi ngoi no cng c c - mc tiu ang cn t c.
Ti chn by cng ty yu cu thng tin nh th; s lng nh ny cho php tp
trung chi tit hn vo cc vn . Nm cng ty c chn tng xut hin trong mt
bi bo v tnh hnh mi trng (trn mt tp ch k ton) cng vi hai cng ty c
ti chn ngu nhin.
Ti ch trng phn tch v cc kha cnh ca hiu qu hot ng, v iu ny cho
php ti bit c iu m tc gi bi bo tin tng c ging vi nhng g ti pht
hin trong thc t hay khng.
Ti cn cc bo co thng nin v chng c th tit l thng tin mi trng ca cc
cng ty hoc cha thng tin ti chnh lin quan ti mi trng, nhng thng tin ny
c trnh by trong phn d on mi trng tng lai trn cng mt tp ch.
Mt im yu ca cuc iu tra l phm vi cc cng ty c xem xt cn hn hp.
Nghin cu v cc cng ty khng c nu trong bi bo, hn na, cc cng ty hot
ng trong cc lnh vc khc nhau, nn vn cng phc tp hn. S rt kh khn
nu cc cng ty ny khng cung cp d liu mi trng so snh. Hy gi in
hi trc tip, ch ng gi th chnh thc! C th bn s nhn c cu tr li vi
thi thoi mi v ci m hn t cc cng ty.
Phiu iu tra mi trng
Sau , ti mun bit liu tnh hnh ni b ca cc cng ty c nh hng n thng
tin mi trng bn ngoi m h c th hoc khng th a ra.
Ti cho rng gi phiu iu tra tm hiu hot ng ca cc cng ty l ph hp. Ti
chn ba mi cng ty t catalog ca bo co thng nin trong th vin Wheatley
(Ph lc 12), ch ng nhm vo nhiu ngnh. Tin hnh nh gi tng c hi tr
li ca cc cng ty.
Ti gi in n cc cng ty xin cc tn lin lc trc.

Ti gi phong b c ghi a ch, dn tem km theo nhn c cu tr li.
m bo l th gi giu tn.
Cu hi c son di dng ng, ngha l ngi c iu tra ch cn
tch vo lin quan.
Ch c 14 cu hi.
Ti cng c cu cc cu hi bt u vi cu hi tng qut trc khi i vo c

th, hng ngi c iu tra i theo li suy ngh ng. C th xem phiu iu
tra Ph lc 11.
21

Phng php tip cn ca ti thnh cng, vi t l tr li l 73%, trong s 18%
khng sn sng tham gia. Phng php ny thu v kt qu l 18 phiu iu tra c
tr li hon ton, chia u cho cc ngnh cng nghip, dch v v sn xut.
tin hnh phn tch, u tin ti xc nh nhng phm tr chnh ca cc phng
php cng b thng tin mi trng v nhng vn m phn ln cc cng ty m
t. Trn c s , ti lp ra cc cu hi.
Nhn xt
C hai bi bo c s dng trong iu tra ban u v vn /d n v bo co ti
chnh m cc cng ty cng b u l nghin cu th cp.
Cuc iu tra do bn tin hnh bng phiu iu tra do bn thit k i vi mt nhm
mu, l nghin cu s cp. Mc ch ca bn l thu c mt kt qu quan trng
v mt thng k.
CH DN
Chng ta s quay tr li d n ny khi tho lun phn thit k phiu iu tra.
3.3 Lp k hoch, ghi chp v nh gi nghin cu

th cp
tng hiu qu tm kim d liu, cn phc tho mt k hoch cho cng vic nghin
cu th cp. Trc khi n th vin hoc truy cp vo mng, chng ta nn c th ha
thng tin tm kim theo cc chi tit, mc d cng cn s linh hot v mt vi k nng
(v d tm kim d liu lin quan theo cch thc phn loi rng hoc hp v to kt
ni mt cch sng to). Trong trng hp tm kim c s d liu trc tuyn, vic ln
k hoch cho phng php tip cn rt quan trng gim thiu chi ph truy cp ti
nguyn, v th chin lc nghin cu cn c ln k hoch t trc.
K hoch nghin cu th cp cng nn bao gm mt thi gian biu. Phi mt bao
nhiu thi gian cho nghin cu th cp? iu ny ph thuc vo phm vi ca thng
tin c tm kim, loi d liu v cc ngun lc s c s dng. Khng th nu mt
cng thc tng qut. Tuy nhin, hiu qu tm kim thng tin cng tun theo quy lut
li tc gim dn v ch sau mt thi gian ngn, lng thng tin thu thp thm s t
dn i nu cng s dng mt n v thi gian tm kim.
Cn ghi chp hoc sao chp d liu tm kim c. Trong trng hp nghin cu
trc tuyn, th d liu cn c lu vo cc file (tp tin). Cc ngun ca d liu cng
cn c ghi li v chng ta c th cn trch dn, nh gi li s chnh xc hay quay
tr li tm thm d liu.
Tt c d liu th cp m nghin cu th cp truy cp n thng c c thng
qua nghin cu s cp. Mc d vic kim tra tnh chnh xc v hp l i hi phi tm
v ngun d liu ban u v hiu cc phng php c s dng: c phi d liu
thu thp t cuc tng iu tra, iu tra mu, suy din t l hay mt cch no khc?
3.4 X l d liu
Sau khi chnh sa, d liu c th c my tnh x l cho ra kt qu. Phn mm
c s dng x l d liu (data manipulation) s ph thuc vo dng kt qu
22

mong mun. Cc phn mm ng dng nh trnh x l vn bn, ch bn vn phng
(desktop publishing), hnh nh ha (bao gm biu v hnh v), c s d liu v
bng tnh thng xuyn c s dng.
Sau y l mt vi cch x l d liu ca phn mm:
(a) Bng tnh (spreadsheet) c s dng to ra cng thc/t ng thm
cc phng thc tnh ton s liu cho ct hoc hng v tin hnh cc phn
tch thng k. Chng c th c s dng to ra cc bng tnh ti chnh
nh d ton ngn sch hoc chi tiu, cc ti khon ca bng cn i k ton
v phn tch chi ph.
(b) C s d liu (database) l cc hp h s in t. Chng c s dng
lu tr d liu mt cch h thng v d dng truy cp nhm tnh ton
nhanh cc ch tiu tng hp, tng s, kim tra hng tn hoc lp bo co.
Mt chng trnh c s d liu nn c cc tnh nng lu tr, khi phc, phn
loi v phn tch d liu.
(c) Biu (chart) c th c to ra t mt bng cc con s v c hin
th theo mt s cch, minh ha v nhn mnh cho d liu. Biu ct,
ng, hnh trn v cc dng biu khc c th c to ra v x l sao
cho thun li.
X l d liu nhm cung cp thng tin hu ch gi l u ra (output). u ra do my
tnh x l c th c s dng theo nhiu cch khc nhau. N c th c lu tr
truy xut v s dng sau ny. N c th c in ln giy nh cc bng hoc biu ,
t ln mt tm phim trong sut trnh chiu, lu vo a mm s dng nhiu
my tnh khc nhau, hoc c gi di dng file in t qua Internet ti cc my
tnh khc. Cc dng u ra ph thuc vo thit b xut sn c v nh dng ca chng
ty thuc vo nhu cu trao i thng tin ca ngi s dng.
Phn mm ng dng c th c chia ra lm hai loi:
(a) Cc cng c tng hiu qu c nhn
(b) Cc ng dng my tnh khc
Cng c tng hiu qu c nhn l cc phn mm thng mi c thit k x l
thao tc tnh ton thng dng, nh x l word, phn tch s hc, x l v lu tr d
liu, trnh chiu d liu. Cc sn phm in hnh l:
(a) Phn mm x l vn bn (word processing) - Phn mm ny c thit
k to ra vn bn nh th tn, bo co, bi bo v sch. MS Word v
OpenOffice Writer l cc phn mm x l vn bn in hnh.
(b) Bng tnh (spreadsheets) - Cha cc , l phin bn in t ca cc ti
khon k ton c s dng lu tr thng tin kinh doanh, rt hu ch cho
vic x l d liu dng bng. Thm na, n c th thc hin rt nhanh cc
php tnh cng, tr, nhn, chia v tnh tng nhiu s. Tt c cc kt qu c
th c t ng tnh li trong trng hp chn thm d liu mi. Kh nng
nh dng linh ng v tnh nng th c s dng h tr vic phn
tch v trnh by. Cc bng tnh cn c hng trm hm x l cc bi ton
thng k, k thut, kinh t v kinh doanh in hnh (v d hm tnh li kp
v lch chun). Cc phn mm bng tnh in hnh gm MS Excel, MS
Works v Lotus 123.
(c) C s d liu (database) - L cch t chc v lu tr thng tin thun tin
theo mt kiu ng b. D liu c th c tm kim, phn loi, trnh by
nhanh chng v theo h thng. Mi ngi c th s dng c s d liu
to danh sch email hoc ghi chp d liu v hng lu kho m khng cn
phi hng dn nhiu. Lp trnh vin chuyn nghip cng c th s dng c
23

s d liu vit cc ng dng phc tp nhm h tr cng vic kinh doanh.
Cc phn mm c s d liu in hnh l MS Access, MS Works v Lotus
Approach.
(d) Phn mm trnh chiu (presentation) - c s dng minh ha cho cc
bi thuyt trnh, bi ging, thay th cho cch vit tay hoc trnh chiu bn in.
Trong bi thuyt trnh v bi ging hin nay, ngi trnh chiu kt ni my tnh
xch tay vi my chiu chiu cc slide ln mt mn hnh. Cc phn mm
trnh chiu in hnh l MS PowerPoint v Lotus Freelance.
(e) Phn mm ha (graphics) - Cho php to ra cc bn v, bc tranh,
chnh sa cc hnh qut. Phn mm ha in hnh l MS Paint.
(f) Ch bn vn phng (desktop publishing) - c thit k trnh by b
cc vn bn, hnh nh ha trong cng tc xut bn. Cc hnh v c th ly
t mt th vin hnh mu, c th c to bi phn mm ha hoc l mt
hnh c qut vo my tnh. Phn mm ch bn in hnh l MS Publisher.
4 LY MU
D liu
(Data)
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
4.1 Cc kiu ly mu
NH NGHA
Ly mu (sampling) l qu trnh chn mt mu cc phn t t tng th.
Ly mu l mt trong nhng vn quan trng nht trong cc phng php nh
lng. Trong hu ht cc tnh hung thc t th vic kho st tt c cc phn t ca
tng th l khng kh thi, nn cn ly mu v ch kho st cc phn t trong mu
c chn. V d l cuc thm d kin d on kt qu ca cuc bu c. Khng
th hi tng ngi tui b phiu rng h s b phiu cho ai v s mt qu nhiu
thi gian v tn qu nhiu chi ph. Do s tin hnh chn mt mu ngi b phiu
v s dng kt qu thu c t mu d on nh b phiu ca ton b tng th.
24

i khi, tng th nh tin hnh iu tra tt c cc phn t; v d, kho st kt
qu kim tra ca sinh vin trong mt lp hc. Nhng trng hp nh vy kh him
v thng th iu tra vin phi chn mt mu no .
NH NGHA
Khi ton b tng th c iu tra, th cuc iu tra c gi l cuc tng iu tra (census).
Bn c th ngh rng vic s dng mu mang tnh tha hip ph hp vi iu kin
thc t, nhng nn xem xt cc im sau:
(a) Trong thc t, mt cuc iu tra 100% (tng iu tra) cha bao gi t c
mc hon thnh nh yu cu.
(b) Mt cuc tng iu tra c th i hi phi s dng nhng iu tra vin bn
chuyn nghip, dn n mt tnh chnh xc ca d liu thu thp c.
(c) C th chng minh c bng ton hc khi kch thc mu t n mt
ln nht nh, th tin hnh kho st nhiu phn t hn cng ch ci thin
s chnh xc thm mt cht.
(d) C th hi nhiu cu hi hn vi mt nhm mu.
(e) Chi ph ca cuc tng iu tra c th vt qu gi tr kt qu mang li.
(f) Mi vt lun lun thay i. Thm ch nu bn tin hnh mt cuc tng iu
tra, th kt qu cng c th tr nn li thi vo lc bn hon thnh n.
Chn mt nhm mu
Mt trong nhng yu cu quan trng nht ca d liu mu l tnh i din. C ngha
l d liu nn bao trm mi lnh vc ca tng th ang c kho st. Mu s c
coi l c thin lch nu yu cu ny khng c p ng.
V d bn mun iu tra nng sut ca cng nhn trong mt nh my, v bn iu tra
vo mi th hai v th ba trong vi thng ly d liu v nng sut. Cc d liu ny
c tnh i din khng? Cu tr li l khng. Bn s thu thp c d liu v nng
sut cho ngy th hai v th ba, nhng s thiu d liu cho nhng ngy cn li trong
tun. C th do cng nhn cm thy sng khoi hn, trn y nng lng sau k ngh
cui tun, nn h lm vic tt hn vo nhng ngy u. Nu trng hp ny xy ra
th d liu ca bn s dn n nh gi cao v nng sut. Do phi cn trng vi
phng php ly mu khi tin hnh iu tra.
Cc phng php ly mu c chia lm ba nhm chnh:
(a) Ly mu ngu nhin.
(b) Ly mu ta ngu nhin.
(c) Ly mu phi ngu nhin.
4.2 Ly mu ngu nhin

m bo mu c chn khng b thin lch, th phi ly mu ngu nhin
(random sampling). Khi , cc suy din v tng th mi c gi tr.
NH NGHA
Mu ngu nhin (random sample) n gin l mu c chn theo cch m mi phn t trong tng
th u c c hi c chn ngang nhau.
25

V d, bn mun chn mt mu ngu nhin trong s cc cun sch ca th vin,
nu ch nht cc cun sch t gi thi s khng hp l, ngay c khi bn ly sch
mt cch ngu nhin. l do cc cun sch cho mn s khng c c hi
nm trong mu. Bn phi m bo c rng mi cun sch u c t trn gi
trc khi ly mu hoc tm mt cch ly mu khc (s dng cc bn ghi ch mc
ca th vin chng hn).
Mt mu ngu nhin khng nht thit phi l mu hon ho (perfect sample). V d
bn c th chn cc cun sch theo cch bn tin s l mt s la chn hon ton
ngu nhin v nhn ra rng tt c chng l truyn trinh thm. l mt kh nng
him, nhng hon ton c th xy ra. Cch duy nht loi tr kh nng ny l tin
hnh iu tra 100% (tng iu tra) cc cun sch. Phng php ny khng kh thi,
tr khi p dng cho mt th vin rt nh.
Ly mu chp nhn
Nh sn xut quan tm n cht lng ca sn phm h sn xut ra, cn ngi tiu
dng quan tm n cht lng ca sn phm h mua. i vi tng c nhn, cht
lng thng bao gm nhiu kha cnh khc nhau, nhng nhn chung c th hiu
l sn phm p ng c cc tiu ch nht nh. i vi mt b pin, cht lng c
ngha l pin hot ng tt khi chng ta mua n; trong khi i vi mt gi khoai ty
chin, th cht lng c th l s khoai ty trong gi phi t c mt trng lng
nht nh no .
iu tra ton b, hoc 100% cn xem xt tng phn t bit liu n c p ng
c mc cht lng yu cu hay khng. y c th l quy trnh tt nht p ng
cc mc tiu ca kim tra cht lng, nhng trong thc t li c mt s mt hn ch:
Nu c nhiu phn t phi iu tra, th n s tr thnh mt la chn tn km

v mt thi gian.
Nu kim tra cht lng ng ngha vi vic phi ph hy phn t kim tra
(v d trong kim tra v kh) th r rng iu tra 100% khng phi l la chn
kh thi.
Thm ch nu tin hnh iu tra 100%, cc phn t khuyt tt vn c th b
b st, tr khi hiu qu qu trnh iu tra t 100%. V d, nu xc sut mt
nhn vin kim tra cht lng b st mt phn t khuyt tt l 1/100 (1 ln
trong 100 trng hp) th xc sut ngi ny pht hin 100 phn t khuyt
tt (khng b st phn t no) ch l 0,37 (xc sut pht hin phn t khuyt
tt l 0,99 - do xc sut pht hin tt c cc phn t khuyt tt s l
(0,99)100 = 0,37).
Nhn chung iu tra 100% c tin hnh trong cc trng hp m vic b qua
mt phn t khuyt tt c th gy hu qu nghim trng, v d trong cc h thng
hng khng.
Nu chng ta quyt nh khng tin hnh iu tra 100%, v bt k l do g, th s la
chn s l ly mt mu c kch thc (s phn t ca mu) no t l - batch (i
khi gi l lot - lot) cc phn t v tin hnh iu tra 100% trn mu . Cc kt qu
thu c t mu ny s c s dng ra quyt nh:
Chp nhn ton b l - ngha l ng rng n ph hp vi khch

hng; hoc
Khng chp nhn ton b l - ngha l khng ng rng n ph hp vi
khch hng.
in hnh l nu t l cc phn t khuyt tt trong mu thp hn mt mc no ,

th chng ta chp nhn l - tri li th khng chp nhn. Phng php ny c
gi l ly mu chp nhn.
26
NH NGHA
Ly mu chp nhn (acceptance sampling) l phng php tip cn dung ha gia khng iu tra
v iu tra 100%.
Cn nh mc ch chnh ca ly mu chp nhn l quyt nh liu c chp nhn hay
khng chp nhn ton b l sn phm, ch khng phi nh gi cht lng ca l .
K hoch trong mu i din c chn t mt tng th v c kim tra xem liu
c th chp nhn tng th hay khng c gi l k hoch chp nhn (acceptance
plan) hoc k hoch ly mu (sampling plan). K hoch chp nhn c phn
thnh hai loi chnh: da vo cc thuc tnh v da vo cc bin.
Cc k hoch ly mu c th l k hoch n, kp hoc lin tip.
(a) Ly mu n (single sampling) - Trong k hoch ny chng ta ly mt mu
n (c kch thc c xc nh) t mt l v s chp nhn c l nu s
phn t khuyt tt c tm thy trong mu thp hn mt s nht nh (s
chp nhn - acceptance number).
(b) Ly mu kp (double sampling) - L s m rng ca k hoch ly mu
n, trong hai mu n c chn v mu u tin s c kim tra. L
c chp nhn hay khng c chp nhn cn c vo kt qu kim tra mu
u tin ny, hoc c th cn kt hp vi vic kim tra mu th hai.
(c) Ly mu lin tip (sequential sampling) - Vi k hoch ny, chng ta lin
tip kim tra cc phn t t l. Sau mi ln kim tra tng phn t, chng ta
s quyt nh chp nhn hoc khng chp nhn l , hoc tip tc ly mt
mu khc. S khc bit ca ly mu lin tip so vi ly mu bi (ly nhiu
mu) l vi ly mu bi chng ta xc nh trc s mu ti a s ly, cn
vi ly mu lin tip chng ta c kh nng s kt thc khi 100% phn t ton
b l c iu tra. Cch lm ny khc vi ly mu kp, v trong ly mu kp,
chng ta ch chn ti a hai mu v cc phn t ca c hai mu thng ch
hp thnh mt b phn ca l tng th.
Ly mu lin tip ti thiu ha s lng phn t phi kim tra, khi cc kt
qu tc th cho bit iu kin chp nhn hay khng chp nhn mt l
c p ng. Xt trn bnh qun, quy trnh ny c u im l t cn quan
st hn so vi ly mu kch thc c nh (cho cng mt chnh xc). Mt
s v d p dng quy trnh ny l kim tra lm sng mt loi thuc mi trc
khi a vo s dng hay kim tra cht lng mt sn phm mi trc khi
a ra th trng.
Quy trnh ca mt k hoch ly mu n tin hnh nh sau: chn n phn t ngu
nhin t mt l. Nu s lng cc phn t khuyt tt trong mu t hn c, l s c
chp nhn; tri li l s khng c chp nhn.
nh gi hiu qu ca mt k hoch ly mu, ng cong c trng Hot ng
(Operating Charateristic curve) c s dng - xem bn di. ng cong ny cho
bit xc sut chp nhn l (trc Y) khi pht hin c mt t l phn trm cc phn
t khuyt tt trong l.
27
Ri ro ca nh sn xut 5%,
(AQL 1.00 )
= Ri ro ca nh sn xut
= Ri ro ca ngi tiu dng

AQL = Mc cht lng chp nhn c
LTPD = T l phn trm khuyt tt ti a
n
= Kch thc mu
c
= S lng chp nhn c
Xc sut
ng cong
OC ph thuc
vo n v c
(LTPD, ) Ngi tiu dng khng

mun cc phn t thuc
mc cht lng ny c
chp nhn
Ri ro ca ngi tiu dng 10%,
AQL
Nh sn xut khng mun cc
phn t thuc cht lng ny
khng c chp nhn
LTPD
T l phn trm khuyt tt thc t trong mt l
Hnh 1.1: ng cong c trng Hot ng

ng cong c trng Hot ng (OC) trong hnh trn bt u vi xc sut chp
nhn 1,0 (v sn phm khng c khuyt tt lun c chp nhn); v kt thc vi xc
sut bng 0 (v mt l gm 100% sn phm khuyt tt s khng bao gi c chp
nhn). l mt th biu th cc mc chun, ti l s c chp nhn v c
xc nh bi cc yu t sau:
(a) Mc cht lng chp nhn (Acceptable Quality Level - AQL) - Phn trm
khuyt tt nh nht s lm cho l hon ton c chp nhn; mt mc m
khch hng mong mun. iu ny c ngha l cc l c t l khuyt tt khi
iu tra mu t AQL tr xung s c chp nhn t nht 95% trng hp
v khng c chp nhn nhiu nht 5% trng hp.
(b) T l phn trm khuyt tt ti a (Lot Tolerance Percent Defective LTPD) - T l phn trm khuyt tt ln nht s lm cho l hon ton khng
c chp nhn. Khch hng khng chp nhn t l khuyt tt ny. iu ny
c ngha l cc nhm l c t l khuyt tt khi iu tra mu t LTPD tr ln
s khng c chp nhn t nht 90% trng hp v c chp nhn nhiu
nht 10% trng hp.
(c) Ri ro ca nh sn xut (c m t bng k hiu Alpha - ) - Xc sut cc
l p ng c AQL s khng c chp nhn. y l sai lm loi I, xy ra
khi khng chp nhn mt l tt, v thng c xc nh l 5%.
28

(d) Ri ro ca ngi tiu dng (c m t bng k hiu Beta - ) - Kh nng
cc l vt qu LTPD s c chp nhn. y l sai lm loi II, xy ra khi
chp nhn mt l xu, v thng c xc nh l 10%.
(e) n - Kch thc mu c ly theo k hoch ly mu.
(f) c - S phn trm xc nh l s b loi b khi t l khuyt tt vt qu mc ny.
4.3 Cc khung ly mu
NH NGHA
Khung ly mu (sampling frame) l danh sch c nh s ca tt c phn t trong tng th.
s dng phng php ly mu ngu nhin, trc ht cn xy dng mt khung ly
mu. Khi c khung ly mu, chng ta c th d dng ly mu ngu nhin, v cch
n gin nht l to mt danh sch s ngu nhin.
V d, nu bn mun chn mt mu ngu nhin trong s nhng a tr mt trng
hc, th vic c mt danh sch tn l rt hu ch:
0
1
2
J Absolam
R Brown
S Brown
By gi, cc s 0, 1, 2 v cc s sau c th c s dng chn ra mu ngu

nhin. Khung ly mu thng c bt u t s 0, do khi s 0 xut hin trong
danh sch s ngu nhin c to, th chng ta c th s dng gi tr ny.
C nhng trng hp khng th xy dng c khung ly mu. V d, nu bn mun
chn mt mu ngu nhin nhng ngi dn M, vic lit k danh sch tt c nhng
ngi dn ca nc ny s qu tn thi gian.
Mt khung ly mu cn c nhng c im sau:
(a) y . Tt c cc phn t ca tng th c trong danh sch hay khng?
(b) Chnh xc. Thng tin c chnh xc hay khng?
(c) Ph hp. N c bao trm ton b tng th hay khng?
(d) Cp nht. Danh sch c cp nht hay khng?
(e) Thun tin. Khung ly mu c d dng x l hay khng?
(f) Khng lp li. Phn t trong tng th c lp li trong danh sch khng?
Hai khung ly mu sn c cho tng th dn s ca nc Anh l s thu hi ng
(danh sch h gia nh) v s c tri (danh sch c nhn).
29
BI TP THC HNH 5
(5 PHT)
Theo quan im ca mt nh nghin cu, u l nhng nhc im ca s c tri khi

s dng lm khung ly mu?
Cc bng s ngu nhin
Gi s lp mt khung ly mu, th vic ly mu ngu nhin t khung ny c th tin
hnh theo mt trong nhng phng php sau:
(a) Phng php bc thm - c ngha l chn cc mnh giy c ghi s trong mt
chic hp.
(b) S dng cc bng s ngu nhin.
Sau y l mt phn ca bng s ngu nhin in hnh.
93716
16894
98953
73231
32886
59780
09958
18065
92052
06831
19640
99413
39510
35905
85244
35159
27699
06494
03152
19121
92962
61773
22109
78508
10274
12202
94205
50380
75867
20717
82037
10268
85783
47619
87481
37220
Bn nn ch nhng im sau:
(a) Mu c ly ra bng cch chn mt nhm cc s ngu nhin c s ch s
ph thuc vo kch c ca tng th.
Kch c ca tng th
S cc ch s ngu nhin
19
1 99
1 999
Cc phn t c chn vo mu tng ng vi cc s c chn ngu nhin.

(b) im bt u trong bng nn c chn ngu nhin. Tuy nhin, sau cc
con s phi c chn theo mt phng thc thch hp. Ni cch khc, bn
nn chn tng hng mt hoc tng ct mt. Nhiu kh nng s c thin lch,
nu chn cc s trong bng mt cch lung tung t ch n n ch kia.
(c) Trong nhiu tnh hung thc t, s thun tin hn nu s dng my tnh
to ra mt danh sch cc s ngu nhin, c bit khi cn chn mt mu ln.
30
e.g.
V D
CC BNG S NGU NHIN
Mt iu tra vin mun chn mt mu ngu nhin t tng th gm 800 ngi - c

nh s t 000, 001, , 799. Ging nh s 799 c ba ch s, nn cc s ngu nhin
c chn s gm ba ch s hp li. Bt u vi dng u tin ca bng, mt vi s
ngu nhin u tin nh sau:
937 161 689 498 953 732
Cc s qu 799 b loi b, do bn ngi u tin trong mu l nhng ngi c
nh s 161, 689, 498 v 732.
Nhng nhc im ca phng php ly mu ngu nhin
(a) Cc phn t c chn ph thuc vo khong bin thin vn c trong
tng th.
(b) C th tm ra mt mu khng mang tnh i din.
(c) Cc phn t ca tp hp c chn c th ri rc mt khu vc rng, gia
tng chi ph v kh thu thp c d liu.
(d) C th khng tn ti mt khung ly mu y .
(e) Kh khn trong vic nh s cc phn t ca tng th.
Ly mu ta ngu nhin v phi ngu nhin
Trong nhiu tnh hung, vic ly mu ngu nhin c th qu tn km nn cn ly mu
ta ngu nhin. Cng c th vic to mt khung ly mu l khng kh thi v trong
trng hp ny chng ta phi s dng phng php ly mu phi ngu nhin.
4.4 Ly mu ta ngu nhin

Ly mu ta ngu nhin (quasi-random sampling) l mt phng n thay th tt cho
ly mu ngu nhin, tuy nhin vn cn c mt khung ly mu.
Cc phng php chnh ly mu ta ngu nhin l:
(a) Ly mu h thng (systematic sampling).
(b) Ly mu phn tng (stratified sampling).
(c) Ly mu nhiu giai on (multistage sampling).
Ly mu h thng
Ly mu h thng c th thay th tt cho ly mu ngu nhin trong nhiu tnh hung.
Hy bt u bng cch chn mt s ngu nhin xc nh phn t u tin c
chn t tng th v sau lin tip ly ra cc phn t cch nhau mt khong xc
nh trc. V d, nu mun chn mt mu 20 phn t trong mt tng th gm 800
phn t, th cc phn t c s th t cch nhau 40 n v (800 20) trong tng th
s c chn. Phn t u tin c th c xc nh bng phng php bc thm
hoc s dng bng s ngu nhin. Nu 23 l s ngu nhin c chn, th mu s
bao gm cc phn t th 23, 63, 103, 143, , 783.
Khong cch 40 n v cn c gi l khong ly mu (sampling interval).
iu tra vin phi m bo rng tng th khng c sp xp trc theo mt trt
t no , v nu vy c th xy ra s thin lch trong ly mu. hn ch s thin
lch, chng ta c th chn nhiu phn t khi u v s dng cc khong ly mu
c chn ngu nhin.
31

Nu khung ly mu c trt t sp xp ngu nhin (nh danh sch sinh vin ca mt
lp theo bng ch ci), th ly mu h thng v c bn cng ging ly mu ngu
nhin n gin.
Mt mu h thng khng hon ton p ng tiu ch ngu nhin, v mt s mu vi
kch c xc nh trc c xc sut c chn bng 0. Tuy nhin, vi u im d tin
hnh v t tn km, phng php ny vn thng c s dng.
Ly mu phn tng
y l phng php ly mu tt nht trong rt nhiu tnh hung. Tng th phi c
chia ra thnh cc tng hoc nhm.
Nu chng ta ly mt mu ngu nhin t tng th cc k ton vin nc Anh, th
mu c chn c th ch gm thnh vin ca Hip hi K ton Qun tr Cng chng
Anh Quc lm vic trong cc cng ty c phn. Phng php ly mu phn tng loi
b kh nng ny, v cc phn t ca mu ngu nhin c ly t cc nhm k ton
vin khc nhau. S phn t tham gia vo mu ca mi nhm t l vi s phn t ca
nhm . Theo phng php ny th mu c chn trong v d trn s bao gm k
ton vin lm vic cc khu vc khc nhau (v d: k ton vin cng ty hp danh,
cng ty c phn v cng ty t nhn).
e.g.
V D
LY MU PHN TNG
S k ton vin mi loi hnh cng ty mt nc no nh sau:

Cng ty hp danh
500
Cng ty c phn
500
Cng ty trch nhim hu hn
700
Hnh ngh t do
800
2.500
Nu cn mu ca 20 k ton vin th mu ny s c c cu nh sau:

Mu
Cng ty hp danh
Cng ty c phn
Cng ty trch nhim hu
hn
Hnh ngh t do
500 x 20
2.500
500 x 20
2.500
700 x 20
2.500
800 x 20
2.500
4
6
6
20
32

Cc tng lin quan ti vic phn loi theo mt s tiu ch. V d: trong mt cuc iu
tra kho st x hi, c th tin hnh phn tng da vo tui tc, gii tnh v a v
x hi. iu ny cho thy khung ly mu phi cha cc thng tin cho c ba bin s,
trc khi tin hnh phn tng tng th theo ba cp.
Phn tng c cc u im nh sau:
(a) Chn c mt mu i din, v vic phn tng m bo mi loi nhm quan
trng s c mt s phn t trong mu cui cng.
(b) Cu trc ca mu s phn nh cu trc ca tng th, nu chng c t l cc
c th tng ng mi tng.
(c) Mi tng c i din bi mt mu c chn ngu nhin, do c th a
ra cc nh gi, nhn nh v mi tng bng suy din thng k.
(d) Tng chnh xc. Vic ly mu din ra trong phm vi cc tng. V phm vi
bin thin mi tng t hn so vi tng th ni chung v s bin thin gia
cc tng khng c coi l ngu nhin, nn ly mu phn tng s em li
cc kt qu c chnh xc cao. ( iu ny xy ra, cc c th trong mi
tng phi cng ging nhau cng tt v s khc nhau gia cc tng phi cng
ln cng tt).
Tuy nhin, lu rng vic phn tng i hi bn phi nm c thng tin v mi phn
t trong tng th. Khung ly mu khng phi lc no cng cha thng tin ny. Vic
phn tng mt danh sch c tri theo tui l iu khng th, v d liu v c tri
mt s vng khng cha thng tin v tui.
Ly mu nhiu giai on
Phng php ny thng c s dng gim s lng iu tra vin v chi ph thu
thp mu. V d sau y s cho bn thy phng php ny c hiu qu nh th no.
e.g.
V D
LY MU NHIU GIAI ON
Ngi ta lp k hoch tin hnh mt cuc iu tra v thi quen chi tiu ca c
nc Anh. Vic lp ra mt khung ly mu r rng l phi thc t, do khng th s
dng phng php ly mu ngu nhin, m thay vo phi s dng phng php
ly mu nhiu giai on.
C nc s c chia thnh cc khu vc v la chn ngu nhin mt mu nh ca
cc khu vc ny. Chia cc khu vc c la chn thnh cc n v nh hn v
chn ngu nhin mt nhm nh cc n v ny. Qu trnh ny c lp i lp li nhiu
ln v cui cng, ly mu ngu nhin ca nhng ngi dn lin quan ang sng
mi n v nh nht c phn chia. T thu c mt mu thay th tng i
tt cho mt mu ngu nhin.
V th, chng ta c th chn mt mu ngu nhin ca 8 khu vc v t mi khu vc
ny chng ta s chn mt mu ngu nhin ca 5 thnh ph. T mi thnh ph, mu
ngu nhin gm 200 ngi c th c chn nn kch thc mu l 8 x 5 x 200 =
8.000 ngi.
33

u im chnh ca phng php ly mu nhiu giai on l tit kim chi ph, tuy
nhin phng php ny cng c mt s nhc im:
(a) C kh nng xy ra s thin lch. V d: ch chn t vng.
(b) Phng php ny khng cn ngu nhin na, mt khi chn cc khu vc
ly mu cui cng. Lc , cc khu vc cn li ca tng th khng th nm
trong mu na.
(c) Nu tng th khng ng nht th cc khu vc chn khng phn nh mc
bin ng trong tng th. Mt khc, vic chn mt s khu vc v loi b
cc khu vc khc (thm ch c tin hnh mt cch ngu nhin) s dn n
kt qu cc mu c thin lch.
Cc phng php ly mu c nghin cu cho n phn ny i hi phi c s
hin din ca khung ly mu (hoc phng php ly mu nhiu giai on, khung
ly mu ca khu vc, tiu khu vc v n v trong cc tiu khu vc c la chn).
Thng th ngi ta khng th xc nh c cc khung ly mu theo yu cu v
trong cc trng hp nh vy phi s dng cc phng php ly mu khc.
4.5 Ly mu phi ngu nhin

C hai phng php ly mu phi ngu nhin (non-random sampling) ch yu, c
s dng khi khng th lp c khung ly mu.
(a) Ly mu ch tiu (quota sampling).
(b) Ly mu theo nhm (cluster sampling).
Ly mu ch tiu
Trong phng php ly mu ch tiu, tnh ngu nhin b mt i v cc li ch nh chi
ph r v s n gin trong qun l. Cc iu tra vin c yu cu phng vn tt c
nhng ngi m h gp n khi mt s lng nht nh, do c th xy ra mc
thin lch ln ngoi mun. V d: iu tra vin mt trung tm mua sm c th
t c ch tiu bng cch ch gp nhng ngi i mua sm vo cc ngy trong
tun. Trn thc t, vn ny c th c khc phc mt phn bng vic phn chia
nh ch tiu cho cc nhm ngi khc nhau, da trn cc tiu ch nh tui tc, gii
tnh v thu nhp, bo m rng mu phn nh cu trc hoc s phn tng ca
tng th. iu tra vin sau s c yu cu phng vn, v d, 30 nam gii trong
tui t 30 n 40, thuc tng lp trung lu. Vic la chn cc c nhn phng vn
ph hp vi cc bin php kim sot v ch tiu, l trch nhim ca cc nhn vin
iu tra hin trng.
u im ca phng php ly mu ch tiu l:
(a) R v d qun l.
(b) C th nghin cu mu ln hn, do thu c nhiu thng tin hn vi tc
nhanh hn, c cng mt chi ph so vi phng php ly mu hon ton
ngu nhin.
(c) Mc d cn phi nm c tng i chi tit cc tnh cht ca mt tng th,
nhng khng nht thit phi c khung ly mu bi ngi phng vn t cu
hi cho tt c nhng ai m ngi phng vn gp trong gii hn ch tiu.
(d) Ly mu ch tiu c th l phng php tip cn duy nht trong cc tnh
hung nht nh, nh nghin cu khn gi truyn hnh.
(e) Vi cc iu tra vin ph hp, c o to v c kinh nghim th ly mu
ch tiu s thu c cc thng tin chnh xc cho nhiu nghin cu th trng
thng mi.
34

Nhc im ca ly mu ch tiu:
(a) Phng php ny c th khng trnh khi s thin lch (mc d cc thin
lch ny mc cho php hoc c th khng quan trng i vi mc ch
nghin cu).
(b) Bn cht phi ngu nhin ca phng php ny b qua cc c lng v sai
s ly mu trong cc c lng thu c t mu.
Kt lun
Ly mu ch tiu khng th c coi l phng php ly mu tt nht trong nghin
cu, v vic thu c cc kt qu c gi tr cao v mt l thuyt l rt quan trng. Tuy
nhin, iu ny vn cn gy tranh ci bi khi cn tn ti cc ngun sai s ln khc,
do lo lng qu nhiu v sai s ly mu l v ch.
e.g.
V D
LY MU CH TIU
Hy xem cc s liu trong v d ly mu phn tng trn, nhng c thm thng tin
gii tnh ca cc k ton vin.
Nam
Cng ty hp danh
300
200
Cng ty c phn
400
100
300
400
Hnh ngh t do
300
500
Cc ch tiu ca mt iu tra vin c th nh sau:

Nam
Tng cng
Cng ty hp danh
30
20
50
Cng ty c phn
40
10
50
30
40
70
Hnh ngh t do
30
50
80
250
Bng vic s dng phng php ly mu ch tiu, iu tra vin s phng vn 30 nam
nhn vin k ton u tin cc cng ty hp danh m anh ta gp, 20 n nhn vin
k ton cc cng ty hp danh m anh ta gp
Ly mu theo nhm
Ly mu theo nhm lin quan ti vic phn chia tng th thnh cc nhm xc nh, c
th ly ton b cc phn t lm i din cho tng th. Cc hc sinh ca mt trng
hc c th c ly lm mu theo nhm cho tng th gm tt c hc sinh trong mt
nc.
Ly mu theo nhm khng tn nhiu chi ph vi cc l do ging nh ly mu nhiu
giai on.
u im ca ly mu theo nhm: L phng php ly mu thay th cho phng
php ly mu nhiu giai on, nu khng lp c khung ly mu tha mn yu cu
35

v c chi ph thc hin thp hn v lin quan n t t chc hoc cu trc hn. Tuy
nhin, vn cn s thin lch ng k trong phng php ly mu ny.
BI TP THC HNH 6
(25 PHT)
M t bn phng php m nh my sn xut bia c th p dng th nghim loi

bia hi mi trn th trng. Hy tho lun cc u v nhc im ca mi phng
php c chn.
4.6 Kch thc mu

Cng ging nh vic xem xt s thch hp ca mt phng php ly mu no
cho mt tnh hung c th, chng ta cng cn cn nhc, nghin cu kch thc mu.
Mc d trong mt s trng hp nht nh, cc phng php thng k c th c
s dng tnh ton kch thc mu ph hp, nhng khng c quy lut chung no
cho vic xc nh thng s ny. Tuy nhin, c hai nguyn l sau y bn nn ghi nh:
(a) Kch thc mu cng ln th cc kt qu cng chnh xc.
(b) n mt mc nht nh, vic tng kch thc mu ci thin khng ng
k kt qu nghin cu.
Ngoi hai nguyn l trn cn c nhiu nhn t khc, ch yu l nhn t qun l, c vai
tr trong vic quyt nh kch thc mu.
(a) Tin bc v thi gian sn c.
(b) Yu cu v chnh xc. i vi mt cuc iu tra kho st phn ng
ca ngi dn i vi k hoch m rng ng ph, th vic s dng mu
tng i nh v em li cc kt qu khng chnh xc lm l c th chp
nhn c. Tri li, mt cuc iu tra kho st v an ton ca mt loi
thuc mi s i hi phi c mu rt ln thu c thng tin cng chnh
xc cng tt.
(c) S lng cc tiu mu cn c. Nu mt phng php ly mu phc tp
nh ly mu phn tng c s dng, th kch thc mu s cn phi ln
bo m s i din y ca mi tiu nhm (trong trng hp ny l
mi tng).
36
5 CC PHNG PHP IU TRA THU THP

D LIU
D liu
(Data)
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
5.1 Cc loi hnh iu tra

Cc cuc iu tra c th c chia thnh hai loi:
(a) Phiu iu tra.
(b) Phng vn.
Thng thng phiu iu tra (questionnaire) bao gm mt lot cu hi m ngi
c iu tra s dng hon thnh cc cu hi ca ngi iu tra. Cn c vo
phn tr li ca ngi c iu tra, ngi phng vn s quyt nh thi im kt
thc cuc iu tra. i khi rt kh phn bit s khc nhau gia ni dung trong phiu
iu tra vi cuc phng vn. Chng hn, mt s ngi ngh rng cc cu hi trong
phiu iu tra lun l cc cu hi ng v ngn, trong khi cuc phng vn lun c cc
cu hi m v rng. Nhng bn s thy c phiu iu tra vi cc cu hi m (mc d
c khuynh hng ngn hn cu hi trong cuc phng vn) v trong cuc phng vn
ngi ta cng thng hi mt lot cc cu hi ng.
Nghin cu iu tra kho st thay i ng k. Hin nay c cc cuc iu tra kho
st bng in thoi t ng s dng phng php quay s ngu nhin. Dn dn,
nghin cu iu tra kho st c kt hp cht ch vi cung cp dch v. Phng
khch sn ca bn c th c mt bn iu tra kho st t trn bn. Ngi phc v
phng c th gi bn mt phiu iu tra nhanh v s hi lng ca khch hng km
vi ha n thanh ton. Bn c th c yu cu hon thnh mt cuc iu tra kho
st nhanh khi truy cp mt trang web. iu tra kho st in t l mt cch hi kin
ca mi ngi v cc vn lin quan ti h. iu tra vin in t dng Internet
tin hnh cc iu tra kho st: h gi cho ngi c iu tra mt th in t c
phiu iu tra hoc hin th phiu iu tra trn mt trang web t ng m ra. H cng
c th tin hnh cuc iu tra kho st trn mt trang web bo mt, ni ch ngi c
kha truy cp hp l mi c th tr li cc cu hi.
Bn c th tin hnh mt cuc iu tra kho st bng th in t ni lm vic bng
cch nh km mt vn bn hay bng tnh vo l th v yu cu ngi c iu tra
m, hon thnh v gi li vn bn hay bng tnh . Bn c th hi cc cu hi ngay
trong th, yu cu ngi c iu tra phc p v gi th li cho bn.
37
5.2 Phiu iu tra

Khi ni n phiu iu tra, hu ht mi ngi ngh v cc cuc iu tra kho st qua
bu in. Loi hnh iu tra kho st ny tng hp tt c cc phng php, trong
phiu iu tra c gi cho ngi c iu tra v gi tr li cho ngi iu tra m
khng cn gp mt trc tip. Nhng phiu iu tra nh vy c th c gi tr li qua
ng bu in, nhng cng c th b b li trong ngn ko hoc trn bn lm vic.
Phiu iu tra gi qua bu in (postal questionnaire) c cc u im sau y:
(a) Chi ph thc hin tng i thp.
(b) Bn c th gi phiu iu tra vi cng ni dung ti nhiu ngi khc nhau.
(c) Cho php ngi c iu tra chn thi im tr li thun tin vi h.
(d) Ngi phng vn s khng c c hi tc ng n ngi c iu tra (thin
lch ca ngi phng vn) hoc ghi chp sai cu tr li.
(e) D dng t cu hi ring t cho ngi c iu tra so vi cuc phng vn
c nhn.
(f) Ngi c iu tra c th cn tm kim thng tin tr li phiu iu tra.
Vic ny s d dng hn, nu phiu iu tra c gi n nh hoc ni lm
vic ca h.
Nhng phiu iu tra cng c mt s nhc im:
(a) T l phiu iu tra c phn hi trong cuc iu tra kho st qua bu in
thng rt thp.
(b) Khng phi l cch tt nht khi yu cu cu tr li chi tit.
Loi phiu iu tra th hai l phiu iu tra theo nhm (group administered
questionnaire). Nhm ngi c iu tra tp hp li v tr li mt chui cu hi
c cu trc. Vic thit lp cc nhm iu tra s lm cho cuc iu tra c thun tin
hn, ngi nghin cu c th a phiu iu tra cho nhng ai c mt v tng i
chc chn s c t l phn hi cao. Ngi c iu tra c th yu cu gii thch, nu
khng hiu ca cu hi. Ti cc t chc (cng ty hay doanh nghip no chng
hn), chng ta c th tng i d dng thit lp nhm iu tra.
S khc bit gia phng php gi phiu iu tra theo nhm v phng vn nhm
hoc nhm tp trung l g? Trong phiu iu tra theo nhm, mi ngi c iu tra
c pht mt phiu iu tra v c yu cu hon thnh n khi ang trong phng.
Mi ngi c iu tra hon thnh mt phiu iu tra. Trong phng vn nhm hoc
nhm tp trung, ngi phng vn l ngi iu khin bui phng vn. Mi ngi lm
vic theo nhm, lng nghe kin ca ngi khc v tr li cu hi. C mt ngi ghi
chp li cu tr li chung ca c nhm v y khng phi l cc cuc phng vn ring
r i vi nhng ngi tham gia.
Mt loi hnh phiu iu tra t thy hn l phiu iu tra kho st pht ti nh
(household drop-off). phng php ny, ngi nghin cu i n nh hoc cng
ty ca ngi c iu tra a cho h phiu iu tra. Trong mt s trng hp,
ngi nghin cu yu cu ngi c iu tra gi li phiu hoc t h s quay
li ly. Phng php ny kt hp c cc u im ca iu tra kho st qua th
v gi phiu iu tra theo nhm. Ging nh iu tra kho st qua th, ngi c
iu tra c th tr li phiu iu tra mt cch ring t khi thun tin. Ging nh gi
phiu iu tra theo nhm, ngi phng vn lin h trc tip vi ngi c iu
tra - nhng ngi ny sau c th hi cc cu hi v cuc iu tra v c gii
thch v nhng g h phi lm. Nhn chung, ngi ta hy vng phng php ny s
lm tng phn trm s ngi sn sng tr li cc cu hi iu tra.
38
5.3 Phng vn
Cc cuc phng vn (interview) c th mang tnh nh tnh hoc nh lng. Thng
thng, d liu nh tnh lin quan n bn cht ca cc vn hn so vi d liu
nh lng v khng ph thuc vo vic p dng cc phng php thng k tiu
chun n gin. Cng tc nh tnh c ln k hoch cn thn. Ngi phng vn s
c mt bn lit k r rng cc ch , nhng qu trnh phng vn cng khng c cu
trc cng tt. Trong cuc phng vn khng cu trc, c ngi phng vn v ngi
c iu tra khng ai b rng buc bi cu trc ca phiu iu tra. Ngi phng vn
c th t do s dng t ng nh h mun. Trt t cu hi cng c th c thay i.
iu ny cho php ngi c iu tra kim sot dng d liu v ngi phng vn
c th khai thc thu o hn cc quan im ca ngi c iu tra v l do ti sao
h li c cc quan im y.
Trong nghin cu nh lng, quy trnh c thit k c cu trc, vic thu thp d liu
c tin hnh vi tc cao v c th x l d liu bng in t.
5.3.1 Nghin cu nh lng (Quatitative Research)

C hai loi hnh phng vn c bn c th c s dng cho nghin cu nh lng
- phng vn c nhn (trc tip) v phng vn qua in thoi.
Phng vn c nhn (personal interview)
Vi hnh thc phng vn ny, ngi phng vn lm vic trc tip vi ngi c iu
tra. Khng ging vi cc cuc iu tra kho st qua th, ngi phng vn c c hi
thm d hoc t cc cu hi lin tip. Nhn chung, cuc phng vn thng d chu
hn vi ngi c iu tra, c bit khi cn khai thc cc kin hoc cm tng.
Cuc phng vn c th rt tn thi gian v ngun lc. Ngi phng vn c coi l
mt phn ca cng c o lng v h phi c o to c th ng ph vi cc
tnh hung bt ng.
u im ca phng vn c nhn:
(a) Ngi phng vn c th trn an ngi c iu tra, gip gim bt s lo lng
v ngng ngng ca h, qua tng t l tr li v gim kh nng mc li.
(b) Th t cu hi (nu ng th ti cu hi s 7, nu khng ng th ti cu hi
s 10) c din gii ngi c iu tra d hiu hn nh kinh nghim
ca ngi phng vn.
(c) Trong gii hn cho php, ngi phng vn c th yu cu ngi c iu
tra gii thch mt s thc mc.
(d) Cc cu hi c th c sp xp theo mt trt t c nh, t ng trong cu hi
cng c gi nguyn v cc cu tr li c th c ghi li theo mt cch thc
chun no . Nu c hn mt ngi phng vn tham gia vo cuc iu tra,
th vic ny s gim s bin ng trong cc cu tr li (ca cng mt cu hi).
(e) Vic chun ha cc cu hi v cch ghi li cc cu tr li cho php s dng c
nhng ngi phng vn cha c nhiu kinh nghim, qua gim chi ph iu
tra.
(f) C th s dng cc hnh nh, k hiu v vt th.
Nhc im ca phng vn c nhn:
(a) C th mt thi gian.
(b) Tn nhiu chi ph hon thnh.
(c) Kh thit k phiu iu tra.
39

(d) Thng thng phiu iu tra phi tng i n gin dn ti gii hn v
su ca d liu thu thp c.
(e) Thng phi s dng cu hi ng, bi vic ghi li cu tr li cho cc cu
hi m gp kh khn.
(f) Ngi phng vn khng th iu tra cc cu tr li m h hoc nhp nhng.
Phng vn qua in thoi (telephone interview)
Ging nh phng vn c nhn, phng vn qua in thoi cho php s lin h c nhn
gia ngi phng vn v ngi c iu tra thng qua cc cu hi lin tip. Phng
vn qua in thoi l mt phng php thu thp d liu tng i nhanh v c chi ph
thp khi so vi phng vn c nhn, c bit hu ch khi ch c mt lng nh thng
tin c yu cu v cng c li v mt thi gian cho ngi c iu tra.
Phng php phng vn qua in thoi c s tr gip ca my tnh (computerassisted telephone interviewing - CATI) c cc cng ty bo him, ngn hng
cng nh t chc nghin cu khch hng s dng thnh cng. Ngi phng vn qua
in thoi m mt phiu iu tra trn mn hnh v c cc cu hi cho ngi c
iu tra. Cc cu tr li sau c ghi li ngay lp tc trn my tnh. Cc cu hi
phc tp (theo l trnh nh thng thy trong phiu iu tra) c th c tin hnh
theo cch ny.
u im ca phng vn qua in thoi:
(a) Phn hi nhanh.
(b) C th bao trm c mt khu vc a l rng ln vi chi ph thp. Ngi phng
vn khng cn di chuyn khi phng vn nhng ngi khc nhau.
(c) D dng t cc cu hi nhy cm hoc gy ngi ngng hn.
Nhc im ca phng vn qua in thoi:
(a) C th c thin lch mu v c mt t l ngi dn khng dng in thoi
hoc khng ng k trong danh b. i vi nhng ngi s dng in thoi
di ng, khng c dch v tra cu danh b hoc mt quyn sch no cho
php tm ra s in thoi ca h.
(b) Khng th s dng cc th minh ha hay hnh nh.
(c) T l t chi cao hn nhiu phng vn trc tip.
(d) Khng th nhn thy biu cm ca ngi c phng vn hoc pht trin mi
quan h nh trong phng vn c nhn.
(e) Cuc phng vn phi ngn gn.
(f) Ngi c iu tra c th khng sn sng tham gia v ngh y l hnh thc
bn hng qua in thoi.
5.3.2 Nghin cu nh tnh (Qualitative research)

Phng vn chuyn su v tho lun nhm l hai phng php nghin cu nh tnh
c s dng ph bin nht.
Phng vn chuyn su (depth interview)
Ngi ta thng s dng phng php phn tch tm l ca phng vn chuyn su
trong nghin cu v ng lc. Cc kiu cu hi nn gip ngi c iu tra bc l
cc suy ngh su sc hn. ng lc v l do ca hnh vi thng n su bn trong.
Phng php ny l mt qu trnh tn nhiu thi gian v tin bc. phng vn
chuyn su, phng thc giao tip ch yu l i thoi trc tip gia ngi phng
vn v ngi c iu tra. Phng vn chuyn su l mt cuc ni chuyn c kt
40

m, khng b hn ch bi mt t phiu iu tra mang tnh hnh thc. D liu nh tnh
c thu thp theo li tng thut bng cng c l my ghi m v bng video. Phng
vn chuyn su c th c t hn mi ngi c iu tra.
Nhm tp trung (focus group)
Thng gm t tm n mi ngi c iu tra v mt ngi phng vn gi vai
tr l iu phi vin ca nhm. iu phi vin nhm gii thiu cc ch tho lun
v can thip khi cn thit khch l ngi c iu tra hoc nh hng cuc tho
lun theo ng ch . iu phi vin cn kim sot nhng ngi c c tnh mnh
m, ngn khng cho h nh hng n nhm.
u im ca phng vn nhm tp trung:
(a) Mi trng nhm mi ngi trn chung mt chic thuyn thoi mi hn cc
phng php nghin cu khc ch da vo giao tip trc tip mt-mt (nh
phng vn chuyn su).
(b) Pht biu ca mt ngi trong mt nhm thng khi dy kinh nghim hoc
tng ca nhng ngi khc.
(c) S khc bit gia nhng ngi tiu dng c th hin r, t c th hiu
cc thi , quan im khc nhau trong mt khong thi gian ngn.
(d) Quan st cc nhm d dng hn, v c nhiu th quan st hn n gin
ch v cc m hnh hnh vi phc tp thng c trong mt tp hp ngi.
(e) Nu bt nhng nh hng ca x hi v vn ha.
(f) Nhm ngi c iu tra to ra mt bi cnh x hi, l s phn nh chn
thc ca th gii thc.
(g) Phng vn nhm c chi ph thp v nhanh hn phng vn chuyn su.
Nhc im ca phng vn nhm tp trung:
(a) Qu trnh phng vn nhm c th hn ch mt s ngi ng gp kin,
khuyn khch ngi khc ph trng bn thn.
(b) Qu trnh phng vn nhm c th b tr hon khi iu phi vin khng th
khc phc tnh hnh.
(c) Cc thnh vin c th ch ni nhng g lin quan ti cuc sng ca chnh
mnh, nn nhng g h ni ch c gi tr trong bi cnh hn hp ca nhm.
(d) Thng khng th xc nh c thnh vin no ca nhm ni g, tr khi
ghi hnh li cc hot ng,
(e) Khng d tm c mt khong thi gian chung mi thnh vin trong
nhm c th cng tham gia.
41
6 THIT K PHIU IU TRA

D liu
(Data)
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
6.1 Gii thiu

Phiu iu tra thng c s dng cho nghin cu iu tra kho st xc nh
tnh trng hin ti hay tnh hung, hoc c tnh s phn b cc c tnh trong
mt tng th. Vit phiu iu tra l mt trong cc giai on quan trng nht ca qu
trnh iu tra kho st. Bn cnh cc yu t chung, cn c nhng iu phc tp m
bn nn bit. Thng thng cn nh ngha r rng khi nim v din t tt cc cu
hi (d hiu, khng m h), nu khng th d liu kt qu c kh nng b sai lch
nghim trng.
Di y l mt s nguyn tc c bn phi ghi nh trc khi vit ch u tin ln
phiu iu tra:
(a) Cu hi phi lin quan trc tip n mc ch iu tra ca bn.
(b) Ngi c iu tra c th tr li mi cu hi (tr khi c hng dn theo
cch khc).
(c) Cu hi phi c din t sao cho mi ngi u hiu n theo cng
mt cch.
(d) Cu hi phi hng n cu tr li cung cp thng tin bn cn bit, khng
phi thng tin bn thch nghe.
6.2 Ni dung cu hi
Khi xc nh ni dung cu hi, bn cn cn nhc cc vn sau:
(a) Cu hi c cn thit khng?
(b) Ngi tr li c hiu cu hi khng?
Nn s dng ngn ng ca nhm ngi c iu tra. Bn phi ngh ti s
khc nhau trong ngn ng hng ngy gia cc gim c iu hnh v thanh
thiu nin.
(c) Liu cu hi c thu c d liu yu cu khng?
Cuc iu tra khng thu c cc d liu cn thit, do cc cu hi din t
42

km hoc qu m h c th ly c cc thng tin c th. Bn nn trnh
cu hi gp nh Bn c thng n qun ru v nh hng khng? v
trnh s dng cc t ng m t tn sut nh thng xuyn, ng k, hi
v chng c rt nhiu cch gii thch.
BI TP THC HNH 7
(5 PHT)
C cch no hi cu Bn c thng i xem phim khng? tt hn khng?

(d) Ngi c iu tra c d liu cn thit tr li cu hi khng?
Kh nng tr li ca ngi c iu tra s ph thuc vo ba yu t:
(i) Nu ngi c iu tra khng bit cu tr li cho cu hi: Trong mt
s tnh hung, trnh bi ri, ngi c iu tra c th phng on
cu tr li. Nhng cu tr li nh vy dn n cc sai lch trong kt
lun rt ra t d liu thu thp c. Do , cc cu hi phi c din
t sao cho khng c v nh ngi phng vn mc nhin cho rng
ngi c iu tra bit cu tr li.
(ii) Cu hi lin quan n s kin khng quan trng hay khng thng
xuyn xy ra hoc lin quan ti s kin mt khong thi gian no
trong qu kh c xu hng khin ngi c iu tra phng on. Vic
ny c th gy ra sai st, v th c th gi cho ngi c iu tra nh
li s kin bng cch no .
(iii) Ngay c nhng ngi n ni lu lot nht cng thy kh tr li rnh
mch v cm gic, nim tin, kin v ng c ca h.
(e) Ngi c iu tra c sn sng v c th tr li cu hi hay khng?
Ngi c iu tra c th t chi tr li mt hay nhiu cu hi trong phiu
iu tra (khng p li) hoc nhiu ngi t chi bng cch tr li sai hoc
xuyn tc s tht. Bn c th s dng cc phng php no loi b
cc cu tr li xuyn tc, khng ng hoc khng chnh xc.
(i) nh gi xem cu hi c thc s cn thit hay khng (c bit nu cu
hi lm cho ngi tr li ngng ngng hoc cm thy b mt uy tn).
(ii) Nhn mnh cho ngi c iu tra bit tm quan trng ca cu hi v
ngha ca cu tr li ca h.
(iii) Bt u cu hi kh bng mt tuyn b hm rng ch ca cu hi
khng c g c bit hay hon ton bnh thng.
(iv) Ng rng hnh vi m bn quan tm l mt thuc tnh ca bn th ba
(mt ai ch khng phi chnh ngi c iu tra).
(v) i vi cu hi c th lm ngi c iu tra thy ngi ngng, hy
pht cho h mt t giy lit k mt s phng n tr li c th, c
nh s hoc phn bit bng ch ci. Ngi c iu tra ch cn nh
du vo con s hoc ch ci thch hp.
(vi) Khi phn tch d liu, cu tr li cho cu hi lin quan n hnh nh
hoc uy tn nn c iu chnh tng hoc iu chnh gim (v mc ,
sc thi) khi cn thit.
43
BI TP THC HNH 8
(20 PHT)
C th din t li cu hi sau nh th no?

Bn c hay n qun ru ri ung cho n khi say khng?
Cch din t cu hi (question phrasing)

Khi chuyn cc yu cu d liu thnh t ng, nn cn nhc danh sch cc yu t
di y:
(a) S dng kiu ngn ng ph hp vi tng th ang iu tra.
(b) Trnh t cu hi di dng.
(c) Trnh s dng t ng m h v khng r rng.
(d) Trnh dng cc t c ngha thnh kin hoc dn dt cu hi.
(e) Khng s dng cu hi song song (cu hi c nhiu , c th tch thnh
nhiu cu hi).
(f) Trnh dng cu hi ph nh.
(g) Khng khuyn khch ngi c iu tra phng on.
(h) Trnh cu hi cho rng ngi c iu tra c mi thng tin lin quan n
cu hi.
6.3 Cc dng cu tr li
S dng h thng cc cp cung cp thng tin cn c v ph hp vi ngi c
iu tra. C mt s la chn nh sau:
(a) Cu tr li c nh - fixed response (mang tnh nh lng)
ng - sai.
Cu hi c nhiu la chn.
Thang nh gi (ri rc hoc lin tc).
Th t xp hng.
(b) Cu tr li tng thut - narrative response (mang tnh nh tnh) - Cho
php ngi c iu tra t do th hin cch din t. Khng c thin lch
v ng cnh c xc nh v ngi c iu tra c th lm r kin
ca mnh. Tuy nhin, vic nh m phn loi cc cu tr li ny mt nhiu
thi gian v ngi nghin cu c th hiu khng ng cu tr li (dn n
phn loi sai).
Cc cu hi c th dng m hoc ng. Cu hi m th kh phn tch. Mt cu hi
m c th din t bng li nh sau:
Hm nay bn i lm bng phng tin g?
C th c nhiu phng n tr li khc nhau cho cu hi trn, lm cho vic phn tch
tr nn kh khn v mt thi gian. Ngi lp phiu iu tra ny nn c gng cung
cp y cc cu tr li kh d, c th nh sau:
44
Vui lng cho ti bit hm nay bn i lm bng phng tin g?

Bng xe but
Bng tu la
Bng xe hi ring
i b
Bng xe p/xe my
Ti khng i lm hm nay (v b bnh/ngh l,)
Ti lm vic nh
Ti khng i lm
Khc (vui lng nu thng tin chi tit)
Cu tr li cho dng cu hi ng ny s d phn tch hn nhiu. Tuy nhin, iu
quan trng l cn trnh xp cc phng n tr li trong danh sch theo mc
ph bin.
BI TP THC HNH 9
(5 PHT)
Bn c th i mt vi loi vn no lin quan ti cc cu hi c nhiu s la

chn? Nhng vn c th c khc phc nh th no?
6.4 Trnh t cu hi
(a) Bt u vi cc cu hi kim sot ch tiu xc nh ngay lp tc xem ngi
c iu tra c ph hp khng. Cc cu hi kim sot ch tiu c th s
dng xc nh liu ngi c iu tra c vic lm hay tht nghip, di
40 tui hay trn 40 tui... Nhng cu hi nh th ny c th gip bn kt thc
cc cuc phng vn khng quan trng cng sm cng tt.
(b) Chuyn sang cc cu hi thu ht s ch , m bo v d on trc
nhng g cn lm tip theo.
(c) Cu hi phi c trt t cng lgc cng tt; nu cn thit phi c nhng cu
hi kh th t chng vo phn cui phiu iu tra l thch hp nht.
(d) Trnh cu hi c th gi cu tr li cho cu hi tip theo, v nh vy s gy
ra s thin lch.
6.5 Trnh by phiu iu tra v th nghim th im

(a) S dng giy cht lng tt.
(b) Phiu iu tra nn cng ngn cng tt. Cc phiu iu tra qu di c th lm
nn lng ngi c iu tra, thm ch ngay khi mi bt u.
(c) Nu ngi c iu tra phi t hon tt phiu iu tra, th vic trnh by
phi to s thun tin ti a cho h. Cn nhc vic s dng cc ng,
, phng hoc c ch khc nhau v cc hnh nh nh. S dng nhiu
khong trng.
45

(d) Phi chc chn rng cc ch dn cho ngi c iu tra trong phiu iu tra
phi thn thin vi ngi s dng v c duy tr mc ti thiu.
(e) Gii thch mc ch ca cuc iu tra ngay u phiu iu tra v nu cn
thit th bo m tnh bo mt. Nhn mnh ngy hon tr phiu iu tra.
(f) phn cui ca phiu iu tra, hy cm n ngi c iu tra v nn vit
r rng nhng g h nn thc hin khi hon thnh phiu iu tra.
e.g.
V D
PHIU IU TRA
Chng ta quay tr li phiu iu tra nu ra u chng ny. y l phiu iu

tra trong lun vn ca mt sinh vin, nghin cu v mi quan tm ca cc cng ty i
vi vn mi trng.
Phiu iu tra v mi trng
Vui lng tr li cng nhiu cu hi cng tt, bng cch nh du
vo cc tng ng. Ngi tr li s c giu tn.
STT
Cu hi
Cng ty bn ch yu ang hot ng trong ngnh dch v hay

ngnh sn xut?
Dch v: ...................................................................................
Cu tr li
....................
Sn xut:.................................................................................. ....................
2
Doanh thu trung bnh hng nm ca cng ty bn l bao nhiu?
3
(a)
Cng ty bn c phng chuyn trch hoc nh qun l mi

trng hay khng?
Phng Mi trng..................................................................... ....................
Nh qun l mi trng............................................................ ....................
Khng c.................................................................................. ....................
3
(b)
4
Nu cng ty c phng chuyn trch hoc nh qun l mi ....................

trng, th b phn ny hot ng trong bao lu ri?
....................
Cng ty bn c chnh sch ring v mi trng khng?
C............................................................................................. ....................
Khng....................................................................................... ....................
Nu c, tt c nhn vin c nhn thc c iu khng?
C............................................................................................. ....................
Mt s c, mt s khng.......................................................... ....................
46
STT
Cu hi
Cng ty bn s dng sng kin no di y v mi trng?
Cu tr li
(Vui lng nh du tt c mc ph hp).

Tit kim nng lng............................................................... ....................
Kim sot cht thi................................................................... ....................
Ti ch..................................................................................... ....................
Ti s dng.............................................................................. ....................
Mua t nh cung cp thn thin vi mi trng...................... ....................
Gim st v kim sot rc thi.................................................. ....................
S dng vn phng phm ti ch........................................... ....................
Trng cy.................................................................................. ....................
Khc.................................................................................... ....................
Vui lng nu ra.......................................................................... ....................
6
Cng ty bn c nhn thc c v bt k tc ng mi trng

no m mnh c th gy ra?
C - v chng ti ang kim sot chng.................................... ....................
C - v chng ti ang iu tra chng....................................... ....................
C - nhng cc vn v t chc ang c u tin vo lc ny.... ....................
Khng - chng ti khng tc ng n mi trng.................. ....................
Khng - khng bit.................................................................... ....................
Cng ty bn c cng b bt k thng tin no v mi trng

khng?
C ............................................................................................ ....................
Khng (nu khng chuyn sang cu 12).................................... ....................
Nu cng ty bn cng b thng tin v mi trng, ng lc

no ng sau ?
p lc t pha c ng............................................................... ....................

....................
Quy nh ca Chnh ph............................................................
....................
Li th cnh tranh..................................................................... ....................
Quan tm n mi trng.......................................................... ....................
Khc.........................................................................................
Vui lng nu ra..........................................................................
47
STT
Cu hi
Cu tr li
c gi d kin khi cng ty cng b thng tin v mi trng

l ai?
C ng............................................................................
Chnh ph.........................................................................
Nhn vin..........................................................................
i th cnh tranh.............................................................
Nh cung cp....................................................................
Cng chng ni chung.......................................................
Khc..................................................................................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
Vui lng nu ra........................................................................
....................
10
Thng tin c cng b ny:

c in km trong bo co thng nin ca cng ty?.... ....................
c phn pht ti mt thi im khc vi thi im cng
b bo co thng nin?.........................................
....................
11
Thng tin c cng b di dng no?

Thng tin tng thut........................................................
Ch s thng k..................................................................
Kt hp tng thut v thng k......................................
D liu ti chnh.................................................................
Thnh tch v mi trng..................................................
Mc tiu v mi trng.....................................................
12
Cng ty bn c thng tin ring v mi trng s dng cho

quyt nh qun l ni b?
C..................................................................................... ....................
Khng - chng ti s dng d liu mi trng c cng
....................
b..............................................................................
Khng - chng ti khng kt hp d liu v mi trng
trong cc quyt nh qun l.............................................. ....................
13
Nu cng ty c thng tin v mi trng, c phi l mt

phn ca h thng qun l mi trng khng?
C...................................................................................... ....................
Khng................................................................................. ....................
Nu khng, th c k hoch no gii thiu h thng ny
khng?
48
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
....................
C...................................................................................... ....................
Khng................................................................................. ....................

STT
14
Cu hi
Cu tr li
Cng ty bn tin rng cc tc ng mi trng s tr thnh mt

vn nh hng n kinh doanh khng?
C...................................................................................... ....................
Khng................................................................................. ....................
Cm n bn rt nhiu v dnh thi gian v gip chng ti.
Xin vui lng gi li phiu iu tra hon chnh (phong b ghi sn a ch

v dn tem).
Vic th nghim trc phiu iu tra s gip pht hin nhng thiu st trong thit k
trc khi qu tr v m bo phin bn cui cng ca phiu iu tra s thu thp c
cc d liu cn thit.
BI TP THC HNH 10
(40 PHT)
Phiu iu tra sau y c thit k thu thp thng tin v ngi s dng Th vin
cng cng ca Redwood. C mt s li trong phiu iu tra ny. Hy c v xem bn
tm thy nhng li no.
Tn:
S in thoi:
1
Bn thng xuyn s dng dch v do th vin cung cp nh th no?
Bn mn bao nhiu cun sch hoc n bn t th vin?

0
1-5
5-10
10-15
20-50
50-100
Ln cui cng bn n th vin l lm g?

Tm kim mt cun sch
Tm kim mt tp ch xut bn nh k
Ly thng tin t th th
Hc hnh mt cch yn tnh
Nhu cu ca bn tha mn khng?

C/Khng
Bn hi lng nh th no v cht lng dch v m th vin cung cp v

thi ca nhn vin th vin?
12345
49
Bn khng thch iu g v th vin?
C bt k bin php ci thin no c th gip th vin cung cp dch

v tt hn khng?
C/Khng
Bn tn thnh hay khng tn thnh vi cc xut gn y do y ban

nh gi Qun l Th vin thc hin, chng hn xut pht gp i do
mn qu hn?
Tn thnh/ Khng tn thnh
(Chuyn sang Cu hi 11)
Bn c bit cc xut ny khng?

C/Khng
10
Ti sao bn khng bng lng vi cc xut ny?
11
Bn c phn i vic th vin khng m ca mun hn khng?

Phn i/Khng phn i
12
Trnh hc vn
CM N S GIP CA BN
7 LU TR D LIU
D liu
(Data)
50
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
Lu tr d liu
Bo mt d liu
S ring t
Bo mt
- Kim sot
Cc trang mng c nhn
- Vn ring t
Thng tin lin lc in t
- Vn ring t
- Vn bo mt
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Lut php Anh

o lut Bo v D
liu nm 1998
o lut Lm dng Vi
tnh nm 1990
o lut Bn quyn,
Thit k v Sng ch
1988
Hnh 1.2
7.1 Bo mt d liu
Mc ph thuc vo my tnh cng cao th kh nng xy ra li my tnh cng ln. Nu
ngi dng khng thit lp cc bin php v th tc bo mt ph hp, th li my tnh
c th dn n vic mt rt nhiu d liu. Do cc bin php bo mt nhm bo v
chng li s thit hi v s gin on d liu my tnh l rt cn thit.
7.2 S ring t
NH NGHA
S ring t (privacy) l quyn ca c nhn kim sot vic s dng thng tin v bn thn, bao gm
thng tin v tnh hnh ti chnh, sc khe v li sng.
NH NGHA
o c (ethics) lin quan n nhng g c coi l ng v sai. Hnh ng mt cch c o c c
ngha l "lm iu ng n v hp l" trong con mt ca x hi ni chung.
Quyn ca mt c nhn c tn trng s ring t v ang tr thnh mt vn
quan trng i vi cc c quan, t chc doanh nghip. l v c nhiu c quan, t
chc lu tr v thu thp d liu v cc nhn vin v khch hng.
Nhiu quc gia pht trin ban hnh cc lut v quyn ring t v nc Anh cng
khng phi l ngoi l. o lut Bo v D liu nm 1998 thay th cho o lut nm
1984 Anh v quy nh quyn ca c nhn trong cch thc thu thp, lu tr v s
dng d liu ca h.
o lut thit lp nhiu quy tc khc nhau m c quan, t chc phi tun th lin quan
n vic thu thp, s dng, tit l thng tin ca mt c nhn. N cng nh hng cc
tiu ch v cht lng d liu, tnh bo mt, vic tip cn v sa i cc d liu .
Cc doanh nghip ch c php thu thp cc thng tin cn thit v cng vic ny
phi c tin hnh mt cch chnh trc v cng khai. Mc ch s dng thng
tin phi c tit l v c s chp thun ca c nhn nu n c s dng cho
mt mc ch khc.
D liu phi t cht lng, ngha l n phi chnh xc, hon chnh v cp nht.
D liu phi m bo an ton ngha l phi c bo mt bng mt khu hoc t
mt ni c bo v nghim ngt (nh trong t c kha). Ngay khi khng cn cn
thit na, d liu phi c hy mt cch an ton.
51

Ni chung cc c nhn c quyn kim tra d liu v bn thn v cc c quan, t
chc phi tin hnh chnh sa thng tin sai hoc thng bo cho c nhn bit ti sao
thng tin khng c hiu chnh.
V mt o c, iu quan trng l doanh nghip cn xem xt cc vn sau y:
(a) D liu c lu tr nh th no?
(b) Nhng ngi no s c tip cn d liu?
(c) H s tip cn d liu nh th no?
Trong nhng nm gn y, c trng hp d liu nhy cm b mt hoc b xm hi
do b hack, mt trm hoc do li bt cn, v d nh b qun my tnh xch tay cha d
liu nhy cm trn tu. thu thp d liu t ngi khc, nh khch hng, doanh nghip
cn phi ha rng h s giu tn hoc gi b mt cho khch hng. Do , iu quan trng
l doanh nghip cn tng bc bo m rng h s gi ng li ha. Doanh nghip
c th thc hin c iu ny bng cch thit lp bin php bo mt d liu ph hp.
7.3 Bo mt
NH NGHA
Bo mt (security) c th c nh ngha l "Vic bo v d liu t cc mi e da c ch
ch hoc khng ch ch m c th dn n s thay i khng c php, tit l hoc ph hy
d liu, v vic bo v h thng thng tin khi s xung cp hoc ngng cung cp dch v".
(Ngun: Lane - Bo mt h thng thng tin my tnh).
Cc h thng thng tin (information system) c lin kt n cc h thng khc
nh Internet tim n nguy c ri ro v bo mt. Mt s ri ro chnh c gii thch
di y:
Cc ri ro bo mt lin quan ti h thng thng tin
Ri ro
Gii thch
Tin
tc
Ngi nghe
trm
(Hackers and
eaves-droppers)
Tin tc c gng truy cp tri php h thng thng tin. H c mu

lm h hng h thng hoc ly trm thng tin. Tin tc s dng cc
cng c nh b to s in t v phn mm c th d mt khu
mt cch nhanh chng.
Virus
Virus l mt phn nh ca phn mm thc hin cc hot ng

khng c php v c kh nng t sao chp. Virus c th lm
hng file, xa d liu hay lm h hi a cng. Khi c truyn
qua mt mng li, v d Internet, vo mt h thng sch (clean
system), virus t nhn bn, do lm ly nhim ton b h thng.
D liu ang trn ng truyn cng c kh nng b chn hoc b

kim tra (nghe trm).
Cc loi virus bao gm:
52
Virus th in t (email virus) lan trn bng cch s dng tin

nhn th in t v ly lan bng cch t gi th cha virus
n cc a ch trong danh b lin lc ca ngi s dng.
Cc su my tnh (worms) t sao chp bn thn chng t my
ny sang my khc trn mt mng li.
Cc ri ro bo mt lin quan ti h thng thng tin

Ri ro
Gii thch
Trojan hoc con nga thnh Trojan n bn trong mt chng

trnh hp l nhng m thm thc hin cc hot ng ph
hoi. Trojan cng ph hoi ging virus, nhng trong mt s
trng hp chng khng c coi l virus v khng c kh
nng t sao chp.
By ca hu (trap doors) - s dng cc im truy cp khng
c thng bo thm nhp vo h thng.
Bom lgc (logic bomb) - mt on m s c kch hot khi
mt s kin c th xy ra.
Bom hn gi (time bomb) s c kch hot vo mt ngy
xc nh.
Tr nh la
(Hoaxes)
Li c thm mt ri ro na, l nh la c virus. C v s tr

nh la ph bin, hu ht di dng cc cnh bo qua th in
t. Nhiu cnh bo l bin th ca mt trong nhng tr nh la
ph bin nht - tr nh la Good Times. Tr nh la ny c hnh
thc mt cnh bo v virus trong mt th in t. Mi ngi truyn
cnh bo ny cho nhau v h mun gip ngi khc, nhng trn
thc t h ang lng ph thi gian ca chnh h v tt c nhng
ngi lin quan m thi.
Tn cng
DoS
(Denial of
service
attack)
Mt mi e da tng i mi lin quan n cc trang web trn

Internet l tn cng DoS (tn cng t chi dch v). Mi e da
ny lin quan n cc chin dch c t chc nhm nh sp mt
trang web bng lu lng truy cp khng l vo mt gi nht nh
vi mc ch lm trang web qu ti.
7.4 Cc bin php kim sot bo mt

Nhng ri ro nu trn c th c gim thiu nh mt lot cc bin php kim sot
khc nhau, cung cp tnh nng bo mt mng v bo mt truyn thng.
(a) Phn mm chng virus (anti-virus software)
Bin php bo v ch yu chng li virus l s dng phn mm chng virus. Cc
phn mm chng virus nh McAfee hay Norton qut h thng v dit virus khi
pht hin ra. Nhng phn mm nh vy cng bao gm tnh nng t ng cp
nht qua mng h s cc virus mi, c th nhn din v tiu dit cc virus
mi xut hin. Tuy nhin, nhiu virus mi c th hot ng m khng b cc phn
mm chng virus pht hin, v nh cung cp phn mm chng virus cha kp cp
nht h s nhn din virus mi trong gi phn mm ca h.
(b) Tng la (firewall)
Cc trao i qua ng th in t vi bn ngoi c th c bo v bng
tng la c cu hnh kim tra virus cho tt c cc tin nhn v ngn chn
mt s dng file nht nh gi qua th in t (v d: cc file thi hnh (file .exe)
vn l phng tin ly lan virus ph bin nht). Tng la c th c thit lp
mc phn cng v phn mm hoc kt hp c hai. Tng la v hiu ha
mt phn cng ngh vin thng ngn chn cc xm nhp tri php. Tuy nhin,
tin tc lo luyn vn c th vt qua cc ro cn ny.
53

(c) M ha (encryption)
D liu trn ng truyn thng c kh nng b chn hoc b c trm trong qu
trnh truyn i (cn gi l nghe trm). M ha nhm mc ch hn ch nhng ri
ro ny. M ha bao gm vic xo trn d liu trc khi truyn i, truyn ti d
liu c xo trn v sp xp li d liu pha ngi nhn. Tin tc chn cc
d liu c xo trn ny s khng th hiu c ni dung ca n.
(d) Ch k in t (electronic signature)
M ha d liu thng lin quan ti vic s dng ch k in t trong qu trnh
xo trn d liu v c th l phng php m ha kha cng khai hay phng
php m ha bt i xng). K thut m ha kha cng khai s dng hai kha l
kha cng khai v kha b mt. Kha b mt (private key) ch c ch nhn mi bit
v c s dng xo trn d liu trong mt file. D liu c xo trn l
ch k in t v c th c kim tra (i chiu vi file gc) bng cch s dng
kha cng khai (public key) ca ngi k tp tin . Qu trnh ny nhm khng
nh thng ip c k bi ngi s hu kha b mt. Nu mt bn th ba
sa i thng ip th vic can thip ca h s d dng b pht hin.
Mt phng php thay th l s dng cc sn phm m ha h tr khi phc
kha (k thut ny cn gi l ng gi kha - key encapsulation). Cc sn phm
m ha thng mi nh vy c th tch hp kha cng khai ca mt bn th ba
c gi l i din khi phc kha (Key Recovery Agent - KRA). Cc sn phm
ny cho php ngi s dng khi phc li d liu ( c lu hoc trao i)
bng cch s dng KRA gii m phn thng ip c m ha. Trong c
hai trng hp, KRA khng lu cc kha b mt ca ngi s dng hoc cng
khng truy cp phn vn bn khng m ha ca d liu.
(e) Chng thc (authentication)
Chng thc l mt phng php m bo rng thng ip thc s n t ngi
gi c cho php/y quyn. Chng thc gm c vic b sung d liu chng
thc vo mt mu c ngi gi v ngi nhn tha thun trc .
(f) H thng an ninh quay s li (dial back security)
H thng an ninh quay s li hot ng bng cch yu cu ngi mun truy cp
h thng phi quay s vo mng xc nhn danh tnh ca h trc. Sau h
thng s quay s gi li ngi v cp cho h s chng thc dng truy
cp h thng.
CH DN
By gi chng ta s nghin cu cc vn ring t v bo mt trong hai lnh vc c th l cc trang
mng c nhn v truyn thng in t.
7.5 Cc trang mng c nhn

Thnh cng ca cc trang mng x hi (social netnorking) nh Twitter, Facebook
v Myspace dn n kt qu nhiu c nhn c trang mng ca chnh mnh - ni
h chia s thng tin v bn thn vi bn b, gia nh v nhng ngi khc.
Mc d c s khc bit nht nh, nhng cc mng x hi u c mt s c im
chung sau:
(a) H s ngi s dng lu tr thng tin c nhn nh ngy thng nm sinh, s
thch v cc mi quan h gia nh.
54

(b) Cc file a phng tin nh hnh nh v video do ngi s dng ti ln v c
lu trong h s ca h cho php nhng ngi s dng khc xem.
(c) Cc dch v nhn tin cho php ngi s dng trn mng giao tip vi nhau.
(d) Cc ng dng v tin ch (cc chng trnh nh) nh tr chi hay cu m
ngi s dng c th chia s vi nhau. Mt s ng dng v tin ch cn c th
c s dng thu thp cc thng tin c nhn.
Sc mnh thc s ca cc trang mng ny l kh nng ngi s dng c th to
cc mng hay nhm ln gm bn thn h v nhng ngi khc. Ngi s dng c
th tm kim nhng ngi bn trn trang mng nh cc thng tin c nhn nh ngy
thng nm sinh v ni h sinh sng ri thm h vo mng hay nhm ca mnh
c thm bn b o trn mng. Chnh cc trang mng cng c th gi ngi s dng
rng mt ai mun thm h vo danh sch bn b o, cn c vo nhng ngi
bn chung ca h. Mt khi kt ni vi nhau, hai ngi bn c th xem thng tin c
nhn, nh v video ca nhau c lu tr trn h thng.
7.6 Vn ring t - cc trang mng c nhn

Vn ring t ca ngi tham gia cc trang mng c nhn lin quan n vic
ai c th truy cp thng tin c nhn ca h. R rng mt ngi, vi ti khon trn
Facebook, khi hon thnh h s c nhn v ti cc bc nh u mun ai s nhn
thy chng - vn bo mt xy ra khi mt ngi khng mong i thy cc thng
tin v hnh nh .
Nhng ngi khng mong i c th l v c hoc chng c, cc nh qung co
hoc nhng k hay bt nt trng, nhng hin nay ngy cng c nhiu c quan, t
chc tm kim thng tin trn mng x hi khi tuyn dng nhn vin mi hoc khi mun
iu tra mt nhn vin c thc s ngh php v b m khng. C nhng trng hp
ch v cc tm hnh tic tng gy phn cm khin mt ngi khng th xin c
vic hay mt nhn vin b sa thi v b pht hin ln mng m khng chu lm vic.
Do t chc phi i din vi cc phn quyt v o c lin quan ti vic liu c
nn do thm i sng ring t ca nhn vin v liu vic nhn vin lm trong cuc
sng ring c nh hng n trin vng ngh nghip ca h hay khng. Tuy nhin,
ging nh nhn vin, t chc cng c quyn bo v thng tin ring t ca mnh vn
c th b nh hng bi nhng li bnh lun do cc nhn vin gi ln mng.
i ph vi nhng lo ngi v s bo mt v s phn i ca cng chng, nhiu
mng x hi tin hnh cc bc nng cao s ring t ca ngi s dng. Cho d
vy th ngi s dng cng ch c th bo v s ring t ca mnh trong mt chng
mc nht nh, vi iu kin h phi b thi gian thit lp cc ty chn lin quan ti
bo mt thng tin c nhn - mt iu m khng phi ai cng sn sng thc hin.
e.g.
V D
MNG X HI
Vo nm 2009 nc Anh, mt c gi 16 tui b sa thi v c nhng li bnh lun

thiu tn trng v cng vic ca c trn Facebook v mi cc nhn vin khc vo c.
ng ch ca c tuyn b rng vic sa thi ny cng ging khi nhn vin ny ng
nhng li bnh lun trn bng thng bo ca cng ty v rng nhng li bnh lun
ca c ta hy hoi mi quan h ca h, khin cho c ta mt vic.
Vo thng 7 nm 2009, mt tay chi crick thuc i tuyn c - Philip Hughes - vit
trn trang Twitter rng anh ta b loi khi i hnh gii Ashes trc khi danh sch i
hnh c cng b. iu ny vi phm quyn ring t ca i crick c v tit l ny
c th em li cho cc i th nc Anh mt li th trong trn u sau .
55
7.7 Vn bo mt - cc trang mng c nhn

i vi cc c quan, t chc v nhn vin, nhiu vn bo mt c th gy ra tc
hi ln hn vic vi phm quyn ring t. Mt s vn bo mt tim tng gm c:
(a) Mt thng tin mt: Cc nhn vin c th khng bo v c cc thng tin b mt
hoc nhy cm m nu b lt ra ngoi c th khin cng ty ca h mt li th
cnh tranh, v d cc b mt thng mi v mt sn phm mi hoc cc k hoch
thn tnh mt i th cnh tranh. Cc thng tin nh th s lan truyn nhanh chng
khp mng x hi, nu b tht thot v tnh hoc c .
(b) Ph hy h thng: Cc ng dng ca mng x hi c th l ni n nu ca virus
hoc phn mm c hi. Cc ng dng cha m c hi ny c th b ti xung
h thng ca nhn vin hoc ca c quan t chc thng qua vic s dng mng
x hi.
(c) Mt cp thng tin nh danh: Nhiu thng tin xc nh danh tnh c ng ti
trn cc mng x hi (nh ngy thng nm sinh, a im, a ch v s in
thoi) thc cht l do nhng tn trm ng gi l nn nhn nhn tin hoc
hng ha a ln. C nhn khng nn ng cc thng tin nh vy ln mng
hoc nu lm th th cn m bo rng ch nhng ai h tin tng mi nhn thy
chng.
(d) Hy hoi danh ting: C quan t chc v ngi s dng phi bo v cc ti
khon mng x hi ca mnh khi tin tc hay cc c nhn khng c php.
Nhng i tng ny c th c tm cch truy cp h s c nhn hy hoi
danh ting ca h, v d bng cch a ra cc cu bnh lun khiu khch.
e.g.
V D
VN BO MT
Vo thng 3 nm 2010, mt chin dch qun s ca Lc lng phng v Israel

phi hy b sau khi mt trong nhng ngi lnh tham gia chin dch ng ti
ngy v a im cuc tn cng trn Facebook.
Cng ty Vodafone UK buc phi cng khai xin li khi mt nhn vin ng mt mu
tin c tnh cht k th nhng ngi ng tnh luyn i trn ti khon Twitter ca cng
ty. Tin ny sau c gi ti 8.500 ngi theo di. Nhn vin ny truy cp
vo ti khon qua mt my tnh khng c ngi gim st.
7.8 Cc phng tin trao i thng tin lin lc in t

K t khi Internet mi xut hin, th in t tr thnh phng tin trao i thng
tin lin lc in t ph bin nht, cho php trao i thng tin gn nh tc th gia
nhng ngi s dng trn khp th gii. Th in t cn tin li vic cho php nh
km cc vn bn lin quan n ni dung th.
Th in t cch mng ha vic kinh doanh ca cc c quan, t chc bng cch
y nhanh tc chu chuyn thng tin, hin thc ha vic lu tr thng tin khng cn
giy t v cho php nhng ngi khng trong mt phng hoc hai u ng
dy in thoi vn c th giao tip vi nhau.
Sau khi th gii a chung hnh thc trao i thng tin ngay tc th ny, cc dch
v tin nhn in t nh dch v do MSN v Yahoo! cung cp bt u pht trin. Nhng
dch v ny hot ng da trn cc nguyn tc tng t nh th in t, nhng
c thit k thn thin hn. Mt khi ng nhp vo h thng, ngi s dng c
th gi v nhn thng ip ngay lp tc t nhng ngi cng ang trn mng. Cc
h thng ny hot ng rt nhanh, nn ngi s dng c th ni chuyn hay tn gu
vi nhau.
56

Nhng tin b gn y trong cng ngh th in t bao gm kh nng gi video quay
bng webcam (my quay video c kt ni Internet) trong khi ni chuyn v chia s
cc file trn h thng.
7.9 Vn ring t - cc phng tin trao i thng tin

lin lc in t
Cc vn ring t lin quan n phng tin trao i thng tin lin lc in t khc
vi cc vn ring t lin quan n trang mng c nhn. Thng tin lu trong ti
khon ca ngi s dng mng x hi c th c sa i hoc xa b bt k lc
no, nn ngi s dng c kim sot nhng g ngi khc nhn thy. Tuy nhin, tin
nhn in t mt khi gi l mt d liu/h s thuc s kim sot ca ngi nhn,
h c th t gi chng i m khng cn s cho php ca ngi gi ban u. Do
, i vi ngi s dng, s thn trng trong vic kim sot ni dung ca th in
t v cc tin nhn in t l ht sc quan trng.
Th in t v tin nhn c gi qua h thng ca mt t chc c th c t chc
lu tr v phn tch bt k lc no. trnh cc vn c th pht sinh, nhn
vin khng nn gi hoc trao i v ni dung khng ph hp hoc c tnh nhy cm
qua th in t hoc tin nhn.
7.10 Vn bo mt - cc phng tin trao i thng tin

lin lc in t
Bn thn th in t v tin nhn in t khng gy nhiu ri ro v bo mt, tuy nhin
chng c th c s dng nh phng tin xm phm an ninh ca mt h thng.
V d v cc ri ro an ninh bao gm:
(a) Virus v phn mm c hi: Chng c th c giu trong ti liu nh km ca
th in t hay lin kt gi qua mt dch v tin nhn in t. Mt khi c m
chng c th ly nhim my tnh hay mng ca ngi s dng, tr khi ci t
phn mm chng virus.
(b) Tn cng gi mo: y l cuc tn cng m cc th in t hay tin nhn trng
c v v hi v hp l c gi d d ngi s dng cung cp thng tin b
mt hay nhy cm. Th in t hay tin nhn ngi s dng nhn c thng
gi mo di dng mt thng bo t ngn hng, yu cu h ng nhp thng tin
ti khon. Nhng thng tin m ngi s dng g vo cng chnh l nhng g k
mo danh cn truy cp v s dng ti khon ca nn nhn.
(c) R r thng tin: Cc l th in t ti mt gia qun l cp cao ca mt cng ty
hoc gia h vi bn th ba c ri ro b r r ra ngoi bi nhng ngi c quyn
truy cp cao vo h thng th in tn ca mt t chc hoc do chnh bn thn
ngi nhn th.
(d) Pht tn khng mong mun: Mt li thng gp vi h thng th in t l cc
bc th c th tnh c c gi cho ngi trng tn vi ngi nhn mong mun.
Mt vn khc na l ngi s dng c th tr li n tt c mi ngi thay
v ch tr li cho chnh ngi gi bc th .
(e) Mo danh: Cc dch v tin nhn nhanh khng bo m vi ngi s dng rng
ngi m h ang tn chuyn khng phi l mt ngi mo danh. V th, s thn
trng i vi vic cung cp thng tin c nhn trong cc h thng nh vy l ht
sc quan trng.
57
e.g.
V D
TH GI MO
Vo nm 2010, hng ngn th in t gi mo c gi bi nhng k la o,

mo nhn n t C quan Ngn sch v Hi quan Anh (Her Majestys Revenue and
Customs - HMRC). Nhng ngi nhn th c thng bo v mt khon hon thu
v c yu cu cung cp cho ngi gi cc thng tin chi tit v ti khon ngn hng
hoc th tn dng cho vic thanh ton. Nh chc trch v thu cng b cnh bo
v cc cuc tn cng mo danh ny v tuyn b rng h ch gi thng bo v hon
thu cho khch hng bng ng bu in.
8 O LUT BO V D LIU ANH

D liu
(Data)
Cc ngun d liu
th cp
(Sources of
secondary data)
Nghin cu s cp
v th cp
(Primary and
secondary research)
o lut Bo v
D liu Anh
(Data protection
legislation)
Thu thp d liu

(The collection
of data)
Ly mu
(Sampling)
Lu tr d liu
(Data storage)
Thit k phiu
iu tra
Cc phng php iu
tra thu thp d liu
(Survey methods of
collecting data)
NH NGHA
o lut Bo v D liu nm 1998 Anh (Data Protection Act 1998) l o lut nhm bo v quyn
ca c nhn i vi cc thng tin lin quan n bn thn h m cc c quan, t chc c quyn
thu thp v lu tr.
8.1 Ti sao s ring t li l mt vn quan trng?

Trong cc nm gn y, ngi ta ngy cng e ngi thng tin v c nhn c lu
tr trong cc file trn my tnh v c my tnh x l c th b s dng khng ng
mc ch. Anh, quy nh lut hin hnh l o lut Bo v D liu nm 1998. o
lut ny thay th o lut Bo v d liu nm 1994.
NH NGHA
S ring t (privacy) l quyn ca mt ngi khng b ngi khc xm phm vo cuc sng v hot
ng ca mnh.
58
8.2 o lut Bo v d liu nm 1998

o lut Bo v D liu nm 1998 l n lc nhm bo v c nhn. o lut p dng
cho tt c h thng hot ng th cng v h thng my tnh.
8.3 nh ngha cc thut ng c s dng trong

o lut
c th hiu o lut ny, ta cn bit mt s thut ng s dng trong :
(a) D liu c nhn l thng tin v mt c nhn sinh sng, gm c cc kin nh
gi v ngi . Ch th c th n t c quan, t chc hoc t bn ngoi, v
d ngi xin vic, ngi lm vic cho mt nh cung cp, ngi lm vic cho mt
khch hng...
(b) Ngi s dng d liu l c quan, t chc hay c nhn - nhng ngi kim sot
v s dng d liu c nhn.
(c) Ch th ca d liu l mt c nhn - ch th ca d liu c nhn .
8.4 Cc nguyn tc bo v d liu

C mt s nguyn tc v bo v d liu m ngi s dng d liu phi tun th.
CC NGUYN TC BO V D LIU
1 D liu c nhn phi c s dng mt cch chnh ng, theo ng php
lut v vic x l ni chung phi p ng cc yu cu sau:
(a) t nht phi p ng mt trong cc iu kin Mc 2 ca o lut. Cc
iu kin Mc 2 c nu di y (ch cn p ng mt trong cc
iu kin ny):
(i) C s chp thun ca ch th. S chp thun khng mang
tnh suy din: phi theo mt tha thun c th c tnh cht t
nguyn v hai bn u bit.
(ii) L kt qu theo tha thun hp ng.
(iii) V ngha v php l.
(iv) bo v cc li ch thit yu ca ch th.
(v) Mc ch s dng l v li ch chung.
(b) Trong trng hp c cc d liu c nhn nhy cm th vic x l cc
d liu nhy cm l khng c php, tr khi c c s chp
thun r rng hoc c ngha v phi khai bo theo lut lao ng. D
liu c nhn bao gm cc d liu lin quan n sc tc, t tng chnh
tr, tn ngng, tn gio, sc khe v th cht v tinh thn, xu hng
gii tnh v t cch thnh vin cng on.
2 D liu c nhn ch c thu thp cho mt hoc mt s mc ch c th
v theo ng php lut. D liu c nhn s khng c s dng na di
bt k hnh thc no khng ph hp vi mc ch (hay cc mc ch) .
3 D liu c nhn phi tng xng, ph hp v mc va vi mc ch
(hay cc mc ch) s dng.
4 D liu c nhn phi chnh xc v c cp nht khi cn thit.
5 D liu c nhn khng c gi lu hn thi gian cn thit i vi mc
ch (hay cc mc ch) s dng.
59
6 D liu c nhn phi c s dng ph hp vi cc quyn li ca ch

th d liu theo o lut ny.
7 Cn c cc bin php k thut thch hp i vi cc trng hp s dng
d liu c nhn tri php hoc khng tun th php lut, lm tht thot d
liu c nhn ngoi mun cng nh ph hy hoc lm sai lch, h hng
d liu c nhn.
8 D liu c nhn khng c chuyn giao cho mt nc hoc mt lnh th
nm ngoi Khu vc kinh t chu u, tr khi nc hoc lnh th m
bo mc bo v y v cc quyn li v s t do ca ch th d liu
lin quan n vic s dng d liu c nhn.
8.5 ng k bo v theo o lut

C quan ng k v Bo v D liu lu gi danh sch tt c nhng ngi s dng
d liu. Nu ngi s dng d liu khng nm trong danh sch , th h s khng
c lu tr cc d liu c nhn. Thm ch nhng ngi s dng d liu trong danh
sch cng ch c lu v s dng d liu cho cc mc ch c ng k.
8.6 Cc quyn ca ch th d liu

o lut Bo v D liu quy nh ch th d liu c cc quyn sau:
(a) Ch th d liu c th n kin bn vi phm v yu cu bi thng cho nhng
thit hi v bt k s nh hng tm l no gy ra bi s tn tht, ph hy hoc
tit l tri php d liu v bn thn ngi . Ch th d liu cng c cc quyn
tng t trong trng hp bn vi phm tit l cc d liu khng chnh xc v
bn thn h.
(b) Ch th d liu c th n kin bn vi phm yu cu sa li d liu khng
chnh xc hoc xa b hon ton d liu ny khi cc file ca ngi s dng d
liu. Cc n kin nh th cng c th c p dng vi C quan ng k v
Bo v D liu.
(c) Ch th d liu c th truy cp d liu c nhn thuc v bn thn h. (Quy nh
ny c nu r ti iu khon quyn truy cp ca ch th d liu). Hay ni
cch khc, ch th d liu c th yu cu ngi s dng d liu cho xem cc d
liu c nhn ca mnh.
(d) Ch th d liu c th kin ngi s dng d liu v bt k thit hi hoc s nh
hng tm l do d liu c nhn ca h khng chnh xc hoc gy s hiu nhm
(khng chnh xc v d liu, khng phi l kin nh gi).
8.7 Cc o lut lin quan khc

o lut Lm dng my tnh nm 1990 Anh (The Computer Misuse Act 1990)
coi mu truy cp, s dng hoc thay i bt k h thng my tnh no m bn
khng c quyn truy cp l hnh vi vi phm php lut.
Anh, hu ht lut l lin quan n bn quyn c nu trong o lut Bn quyn,
thit k v sng ch nm 1988 (Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988). Lut
bn quyn cng p dng i vi phn mm my tnh. Thng thng s vi phm cc
iu kin v giy php phn mm (software licence) c ngha l bn quyn ca ch
s hu b xm phm.
60

Trong phn ny chng ta s tm hiu qua hai o lut khc lin quan n cc h thng
my tnh. Chng ta s nghin cu cc o lut Anh m nhiu nc khc cng c
php ch tng t. Hai o lut chng ta nghin cu l o lut Lm dng My tnh
nm 1990 (lin quan n hnh vi t nhp) v o lut Bn quyn, Thit k v Sng
ch nm 1988 (p dng cho vic sao chp bn quyn).
8.8 o lut Lm dng my tnh nm 1990

o lut Lm dng My tnh nm 1990 coi mu truy cp, s dng hoc thay i bt
k h thng my tnh no m bn khng c quyn truy cp l hnh vi vi phm php lut.
Do , mu vt qua bt k h thng kim sot an ninh, nh mt khu, l hnh vi vi
phm php lut. Hnh vi t nhp, c tnh pht tn virus cho mt h thng cng b coi l
vi phm php lut v c iu chnh theo cc iu khon ca o lut ny.
8.9 o lut Bn quyn, thit k v sng ch nm 1988

Anh, hu ht lut lin quan n bn quyn c nu trong o lut Bn quyn,
Thit k v Sng ch nm 1988. Lut Sa i v Bn quyn (phn mm my tnh)
nm 1985 cng nhn chng trnh my tnh l sn phm tr tu, do c bo
v bn quyn theo cc quy nh ca lut bn quyn.
Khi ngi s dng mua phn mm th thc cht h mua quyn s dng phn mm
theo cc iu khon v iu kin c trong hp ng cp php. Giy php s c
pht hnh vi phn mm dng giy hoc in t, bao gm cc iu khon v iu
kin s dng theo tuyn b ca nh sn xut phn mm hoc ngi s hu bn
quyn phn mm. S vi phm cc iu kin v giy php phn mm c ngha l bn
quyn ca ch s hu b xm phm.
8.10 Vi phm bn quyn phn mm

Vic sao chp phn mm tri php c quy l vi phm bn quyn phn mm
(software piracy). T chc c th phi i mt vi mt v t tng dn s, nu s dng
tri php cc bn sao chp phn mm, trong khi nh chc trch thuc t chc v bn
thn nhn vin c th phi chu trch nhim hnh s.
Hnh thc vi phm bn quyn phn mm ph bin nht trong cc cng ty l vic ci
t cc gi phn mm trn nhiu my hn so s c cp php. V d: Nu cng
ty mua giy php ca chng trnh phn mm cho 5 ngi s dng, nhng li ci
t phn mm trn 10 my, th tc l cng ty ang s dng cc bn sao chp
tri php. Anh, o lut Bn quyn, Thit k v Sng ch nm 1988 cho php to
cc bn sao lu tr ca phn mm trong trng hp mc ch s dng l hp php.
61
TNG KT CHNG
62
Chng 1 tp trung vo cc vn thc t trong cng tc thu thp d liu.

Thuc tnh l c tnh m vt th c hoc khng c v khng th o c c.
Bin l th c th o c.
Bin c th ri rc (c th nhn cc gi tr c th) hoc lin tc (c th nhn bt
k gi tr no).
D liu c th l d liu s cp (c thu thp cho mc ch hin ti) hoc l d
liu th cp ( c thu thp).
Cc v d v d liu th cp bao gm cc d liu thng k v d kin lch s
c cng b.
D liu s cp c th c thu thp thng qua iu tra. C hai loi iu tra ch
yu: phng vn v s dng phiu iu tra gi qua ng bu in. Phng vn
c th l trc tip hoc c thc hin qua in thoi.
Thit k cc phiu iu tra bao gm nghin cu ni dung cu hi, cch din t
cu hi, cc loi cu tr li, cc cu hi cn c v b cc ca phiu iu tra.
Cc phiu iu tra nn c th nghim trc.
D liu thng c thu thp t mt mu hn l mt tng th. Mu c th c
la chn bng cch s dng phng php ly mu ngu nhin (s dng cc
bng s ngu nhin hoc phng php bc thm), phng php ly mu ta
ngu nhin (ly mu h thng, ly mu phn tng v ly mu nhiu giai on)
hoc phng php ly mu phi ngu nhin (ly mu ch tiu v ly mu theo
nhm). Hy chc chn rng bn hiu cc c im, u v nhc im ca mi
phng php ly mu.
Mt khi d liu c thu thp, chng cn phi c trnh by v phn tch.
Bn cn nh rng, nu d liu khng c thu thp ng cch th d c trnh
by hoc gii thch cn thn n u cng khng th khc phc c cc
nhc im.
Cc vn bo mt v an ninh c ngha quan trng i vi c nhn v c quan,
t chc. Cc mi e da vi h c th do vic s dng trang mng x hi c nhn
v dch v th in t.
o lut Bo v D liu nm 1998 Anh nhm mc ch bo v cc quyn c
nhn lin quan n thng tin v bn thn h m c quan, t chc ang lu gi.
o lut Lm dng My tnh nm 1990 Anh coi mu truy cp, s dng
hoc thay i bt k h thng my tnh no m bn khng c quyn truy cp l
hnh vi vi phm php lut.
Anh, hu ht lut l lin quan n bn quyn c nu trong o lut Bn
quyn, Thit k v Sng ch nm 1988. Lut bn quyn cng p dng i vi
phn mm my tnh. S vi phm cc iu kin v giy php phn mm c ngha
l bn quyn ca ch s hu b xm phm.
CU HI N TP
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Bin ri rc l g?
D liu th cp l g?
Lit k mt s ngun thng k c xut bn ca nc Anh.
Trong cc phng php iu tra kho st thu thp d liu, c th c cc loi
sai st no?
Nhng yu t no lin quan n trnh t cu hi cn c lu trc khi thit
k phiu iu tra?
u im v nhc im ca phng vn c nhn l g?
Lit k cc l do s dng mu.
Th no l mu ngu nhin n gin?
Th no l mu phn tng?
Lit k ba nhn t qun l c th c nh hng n kch thc mu.
Hy k tn ba o lut v d liu quan trng nc Anh.
63
P N CU HI N TP
1 Bin ri rc l mt bin (mt th c th o c) c th ly mt s hu hn hoc

c th m c cc gi tr trong mt phm vi xc nh.
2 D liu th cp l d liu c thu thp u v mc ch khc, nhng c
th c s dng hoc p dng cho cuc iu tra, kho st ang c tin hnh.
3 Vn phng thng k quc gia Anh xut bn:
Nguyt san Thng k hng thng
Nin gim Thng k
n phm Xu hng Kinh t
n phm Thng k Ti chnh
Cc ngun khc:
n phm ca B Lao ng Anh.
Tp san hng qu ca Ngn hng Anh
n phm Xu hng Dn s
Sch xanh v Thu nhp v Tiu dng Quc gia
Nin gim thng k
Bo co thng k hng thng
Thi bo Ti chnh
4 (a) Sai s ly mu
(b) Sai s tr li
(c) Sai s khng tr li
5 (a) Bt u vi cc cu hi kim sot ch tiu xc nh ngay liu ngi c
phng vn c phi l ngi ph hp hay khng.
(b) Chuyn ti cc cu hi thu ht s ch , bit r v d on trc nhng g
s hi tip theo.
(c) Cc cu hi nn c sp xp theo trt t cng lgc cng tt, nhng nu
cn c cc cu hi kh th t chng pha di s ph hp hn.
(d) Trnh cu hi gi cu tr li cho cu hi sau, v cc cu hi c th lm
sai lch kt qu iu tra.
6 u im ca phng vn c nhn:
(a) Ngi phng vn c th gim bt s lo lng ca ngi c iu tra v lm
cho h bt ngng ngng, qua tng t l tr li v gim kh nng mc li.
(b) Ngi phng vn c kinh nghim s gii thch ngi c iu tra hiu
r v trnh t t cu hi (nu ng th ti cu hi s 7, nu sai th ti cu
hi s 10).
(c) Trong gii hn cho php, ngi phng vn c th hi li ngi c iu tra
lm sng t cu tr li ca h.
(d) Cc cu hi c th c a ra theo mt trt t c nh vi cch dng t c
nh v cc cu tr li c th c ghi li theo cch thc chun. Vic ny s
hn ch bin ng trong cu tr li (cho cng mt cu hi) nu c hn mt
ngi phng vn tham gia vo cuc iu tra.
64

(e) Vic chun ha cc cu hi v cch ghi li cc cu tr li cho php s dng
c nhng ngi phng vn cha c nhiu kinh nghim, qua gim chi ph
iu tra.
(f) C th s dng cc hnh nh, k hiu v vt.
Nhc im ca phng vn c nhn:
8
9
10
11
(a) C th tn nhiu thi gian.

(b) Chi ph hon thnh mt cuc phng vn c th cao hn so vi cc phng
php iu tra kho st khc.
(c) Kh thit k phiu iu tra.
(d) Cuc phng vn c cu trc c cc nhc im nht nh:
(i) Cc cu hi c t tng i n gin, do hn ch chiu su
ca d liu thu thp c.
(ii) Thng phi s dng cu hi ng, do gp tr ngi trong vic ghi li
cu tr li cho cu hi m.
(iii) Ngi phng vn khng th iu tra cc cu tr li m h hoc
nhp nhng.
(a) Trn thc t, mt cuc iu tra 100% (tng iu tra) cng khng bao gi
hon thnh trn vn mc ch ra.
(b) Tng iu tra c th cn s dng c cc iu tra vin khng c nhiu kinh
nghim, nn nh hng ti chnh xc ca d liu thu thp c.
(c) V mt ton hc, khi kch thc mu t ti mt gii hn nht nh th vic
iu tra thm mt s phn t khng ci thin thm nhiu v chnh xc.
(d) C th hi nhiu cu hi hn cho mt mu.
(e) Chi ph ca tng iu tra c th vt qu gi tr ca cc kt qu.
(f) Mi th lun bin i v cuc tng iu tra s khng cn gi tr vo lc n
c hon thnh.
Mu ngu nhin n gin l mu c la chn theo phng thc m mi phn
t trong tng th u c c hi c chn vo mu.
Ly mu phn tng l mt phng php bao gm vic phn chia tng th thnh
cc tng hoc loi. Mu ngu nhin c chn t mi tng v phn nh trc tip
cu trc ca tng th.
(a) Tin bc v thi gian sn c.
(b) Yu cu v chnh xc.
(c) S lng tiu mu theo yu cu.
o lut Bo v D liu nm 1998, o lut Lm dng My tnh nm 1990 v
o lut Bn quyn, Thit k v Sng ch nm 1988.
65
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 (a) S lng biu trong mt quyn sch gio khoa l mt bin ri rc, v s
lng biu ch c th l s nguyn. V d, bn khng th c 26 biu
hay 47,32 biu trong mt quyn sch.
(b) i vi mt lon hp, c dn nhn hay khng l mt thuc tnh. y khng
phi l th c th o c c. Mt lon hp c th c thuc tnh ny hoc
khng.
(c) Thi gian cn thit vn ng vin chy mt dm l bin lin tc v thi
gian c ghi li, v mt l thuyt c th ly bt k gi tr no nh 4 pht v
2,0643 giy.
(d) Chiu cao ca mt ct in bo l bin lin tc.
2 Thng tin chi tit v mi nhn vin gm c tn, a ch, ngy thng nm sinh, chc
v, mc lng, s bo him x hi, ch ngy ngh c hng v ngy bt
u lm vic.
3 FT s c cc thng tin chi tit v ch s gi c phiu FTSE 100, t gi hi oi, li
sut, gi tn phiu v c phiu khc.
4 Cc loi hnh tho lun nhm ny l nghin cu nh tnh.
5 Nhc im ca vic s dng s c tri lm khung ly mu l s khng bao gm
thanh thiu nin v ngi nhp c.
6 (a) Nh my sn xut bia c th cung cp bia cho mt mu ngu nhin nhng
ngi ung bia, sau hi kin ca h. Nhng mu nh vy c chn
theo phng thc mi phn t ca tng th (trong trng hp ny, tt c
nhng ngi ung bia v nhng ngi c th ung bia) u c c hi c
chn vo mu nh nhau. u im chnh ca phng php ly mu ngu
nhin l cho php tin hnh cc phn tch d liu. Nhc im chnh l vic
thu thp mu ngu nhin c th rt kh khn hay tn km. Nh my sn xut
bia c th d dng nhn thy rng vic lp ra mt danh sch nhng ngi
ung bia lm khung ly mu l khng kh thi.
(b) Ly mu phn tng c th ph hp hn. Trc tin, tng th c chia thnh
cc nhm, c th theo tui v lng tiu th bia hng tun. Sau s
chn cc mu t mi nhm (phn nh t l dn c trong mi nhm). u im
ch yu ca ly mu phn tng l m bo mi nhm u c i din trong
mu. Nhc im chnh l cn nghin cu s cp xc nh nn phn
nhm nh th no v t l dn c mi nhm.
(c) Ly mu theo nhm c th l mt phng php thay th v k tha mt s li
ch ca phng php ly mu ngu nhin v ly mu phn tng. Dn c c
th c chia theo a l thnh nhng ngi ung bia ti qun bia cc vng
khc nhau ca t nc. Ta c th chn mt mu ca cc vng v mt mu
qun bia cc vng c chn. Sau , tt c nhng ngi ung bia
cc qun bia chn s hnh thnh mt mu. u im chnh ca ly mu
theo nhm l tng i r. Nhc im chnh l mu thu thp c khng
thc s l mu ngu nhin, do khng p dng c mt s phng php
phn tch thng k.
(d) Ly mu ch tiu c u im r hn ly mu theo nhm, nhng c nhc
im l to ra mu khng cn l mu ngu nhin na. Cc nh nghin cu
ch n mt s cc qun bia ri phng vn nhng ngi ung bia u tin h
gp cho n khi h hon thnh ch tiu (nh 10 nam v 10 n).
7 Bn c i xem phim: (a) mt tun mt ln, (b) mt thng mt ln, (c) mt nm
hai ln khng?
66

8 Bn c ngh ngi ta n qun ru ch n gin l ung ru cho say?
9 Di y l mt s phng n. Bn c th ngh ti cc phng n khc.
(a) Thu thp cu tr li c th cho cu hi nh Bn ch yu mua qun o ca
hng no? c th phi thc t.
Vn ny c th khc phc bng cch lit k cc ca hng ni ting nht
v s dng phng n la chn khc (xin hy nu c th).
(b) V tr ca cu tr li thay th c th gy ra s thin lch.
Vn ny c th khc phc (nhng khng hon ton) bng cch to mt
phiu iu tra khc.
(c) C th xy dng mt b cc cu tr li khng cn xng
Cu hi: Bn c cm ngh g v chng trnh tivi X?
A: 1
Qu t nht
B: 2
C: 3
Rt chn
Khng quan tm
R rng, khng nn thit lp cc cu tr li ny.

10 Di y ch l mt s vn c th xy ra vi phiu iu tra v Th vin Cng
cng Redwood. Bn c th pht hin phiu iu tra ny c cc vn khc.
Gii thiu: Khng c gii thiu g v mc ch ca cuc iu tra v kt qu thu
c s s dng cho mc ch g. loi hnh iu tra, vic thu c kt qu
chnh xc l rt quan trng v ph thuc vo vic lc ra nhng ngi khng s
dng th vin.
Nu bn ang tm kim cc kt qu vi quy m rng v chn thc hn, th khng
nn hi tn v s in thoi. Ngi ta mun bit liu thng tin h cung cp c
c bo mt v c lu tr mt cch an ton khng.
Cu
hi
1
Cu hi ny l cu hi m, c th c din t thnh cu hi ng
so snh cc cu tr li ca ngi c hi. Ngoi ra, cu hi ny khng
cp ti thi gian c th (v d 12 thng qua, thng trc, tun trc,...)
mt ngi n th vin.
Cu hi v vic mn sch hoc cc n phm. Nu bn mn c hai loi

th sao? Phng n tr li no bn s chn, nu bn mn nm cun
sch v n phm? Bn s chn t 1-5 hay 5-10? Khong hn 15 v km
20 b thiu. Mt vn khc vi cu hi ny l thi gian mn sch. Bn
mn sch vo nm ngoi, mi nm trc hay thng trc?
V l cu hi ng nn ngi c iu tra ch c bn phng n tr li

la chn. Tuy nhin, c th c cc l do khc n th vic. Mt
mc Khc vi khong trng xin hy nu c th hoc mt danh sch cc
phng n di hn chn nh hot ng x hi hay k sch cng c th
c cho thm vo. Vic thm phn hng dn cho cu hi c lu nh
du vo tt c cc phng n ph hp cng hu ch hn. Theo cch ny
ngi c iu tra c th chn nhiu phng n thay v ch mt.
67
Cu
hi
68
Cu hi kh n nhng vn cha i su vo chi tit. Th vin cn phi bit

ti sao n khng p ng c cc nhu cu ca ngi c iu tra. Cu
hi ny nn c mt phn th hai, yu cu ngi c iu tra m t ti
sao cc nhu cu ca mnh khng c p ng.
y l cu hi gp. Vn u tin l bn ang hi ngi c iu tra

hai th khc nhau trong cng mt cu hi. Vn th hai lin quan ti
mc cc cu tr li. Khng c hng dn v vic xc nh thang trong
cu hi. Ngi tr li hiu v cc thang ny khng? Nu c th 1 c
ngha g? 5 c ngha l km hay tt?
y l cu hi m v s c kh khn trong vic tp hp v sp xp bng

cc phng n tr li khc nhau. Nu c danh sch phng n la chn
(bao gm s la chn cui cng Khc vi mt khong trng ngi
tr li gii thch c th) th h s d dng tr li hn rt nhiu v cc nh
phn tch d liu c th sp xp kt qu thnh bng.
Cu hi ny yu cu cu tr li l C hoc Khng, tuy nhin ngi tr

li c th khng bit hoc khng c kin g v bt c s ci thin no
ca th vin.
Nn t cu hi liu ngi c iu tra tn thnh hay khng tn thnh

ton b cc xut sau Cu hi s 9. Nu ngi c iu tra khng
bit cc xut th sao? Nu ngi c iu tra ng vi mt s
xut, nhng khng ng vi cc xut khc th sao? Cc phng
n tr li c sn c th khng cung cp cc thang nh gi cc
xut. Cch din t cu hi 8 nn c thay i trnh s thin lch
trong cu tr li.
Cu hi (Bn c bit cc xut ny khng?) nn t trc Cu hi s 8

(Bn tn thnh hay khng tn thnh cc xut gn y?) v Cu hi
s 9 ch lin quan n Cu hi s 8, nu cu tr li l C. Ngoi ra, ta c
th b sung cho Cu hi s 9 bng cch hng dn ngi c iu tra
chn mc C hoc Khng mt cch ph hp.
10
Tht khng may, y l mt cu hi rt m.
11
Cu hi ny c din t theo hnh thc ph nh kp. V khng r

ang hi g nn mt s ngi c iu tra c th gii thch cu hi
theo nhiu cch khc nhau. Mt cch gii quyt n gin cho vn ny
l din t li cu hi: Bn c mun th vin ko di thi gian m ca
khng? Bao gm c mt danh sch cc cu tr li nh _C _Khng
_Khng quan tm.
12
y l mt cu hi nhy cm v ngi c iu tra khng mun tr li

hay khng mun tr li mt cch chnh xc. Tt nht nn b cu hi ny.
Tuy nhin, nu trnh hc vn c lin quan n thng tin ang c thu
thp v cn phi hi th mt cu hi ng s tt cho vic phn tch nh
lng hn.
GHI CH CUI CHNG
69
GHI CH CUI CHNG
70
Phn B
Cc phng php
phn tch d liu
71
Chng
02
Trnh by d liu
Bng
(Tables)
Biu
(Charts)
Trnh by d liu
(Data presentation)
S bnh qun
(Averages)
Phn phi tn s
(Frequency
distributions)
Gii thiu
Hin ti cc bn bit cch thu thp d liu. Sau bn s lm g vi nhng d liu
ny? Bn phi phn tch v trnh by nhng d liu thu thp c th s dng
chng. Chng ny bt u bng vic nghin cu cch thc trnh by d liu theo
bng hoc biu . Nhng phng php ny rt c tc dng trong vic trnh by d
liu quan trng sao cho sc tch v d hiu nht. Tuy nhin, chng n thun ch c
tnh cht minh ha v khng gip ch nhiu cho vic phn tch chi tit v mt s hc
ca mt tnh hung c th.
D liu bao gm hng lot con s c th c tm gn bng mt bng phn phi tn
s (mt bng ghi li tn s ca cc gi tr c th). Biu tn s (histogram) v biu
ng cong (ogive) chnh l hnh nh i din cho phn phi tn s theo nhm
v tch ly, ng thi cho bit mi lin h gia phng php minh ha n thun vi
phng php s hc v phn tch d liu.
Trong trng hp ny, chng ta c th ly c hai s o ban u trong mt tp d
liu: s o tp trung (s bnh qun) v s o phn tn (measure of dispersion
or spread). Trong chng ny, chng ta s nghin cu s bnh qun - cch tnh, u
im v nhc im; trong chng sau, chng ta s nghin cu s o phn tn.
S bnh qun l s i din nhm a ra cm nhn v kch thc ca tt c phn
t trong tng th. C th bn s ngh s bnh qun n gin l mt s trung bnh,
nhng trong thc t, c ba loi s bnh qun: trung bnh s hc (gi tr trung bnh mean), mt (mode) v trung v (median).
Mc tiu bi hc
Trnh by d liu theo bng, biu hnh trn v biu ct.
Xy dng bng phn phi tn s.
Lp biu tn s.
V biu ng cong.
73
Nhn bit nhng trng hp m trong mi hnh thc trnh by d liu c

th c s dng.
Hiu c s khc nhau gia trung bnh s hc, mt v trung v ca mt tp
d liu, nhn bit c u im v nhc im ca chng.
Tnh trung bnh s hc, mt v trung v ca d liu phn t v khng phn t.
1 BNG
Bng
(Tables)
Biu
(Charts)
Trnh by d liu
(Data presentation)
Phn phi tn s
(Frequency
distributions)
S bnh qun
(Averages)
1.1 Phn tch d liu th

NH NGHA
Bng (table) l mt ma trn d liu theo hng v ct, trong cc hng v ct c tiu .
D liu th (danh sch kt qu t mt cuc iu tra) cn c tng hp v phn tch
to cho chng mt ngha nht nh. Chng ny bt u vi mt trong cc cch
thc trnh by d liu c bn nht - lp bng d liu.
Lp bng c ngha l a d liu vo bng. V bng d liu thng c hai chiu, nn
n ch th hin hai bin. V d, nhng ngun lc cn thit sn xut sn phm trong
mt nh my c th c lp bng, vi mt chiu (hng hoc ct) i din cho sn
phm c sn xut v mt chiu i din cho cc ngun lc.
Ngun lc cho sn xut: Tt c s liu tnh theo bng Anh
Sn phm
A
Tng s
Nguyn liu trc tip A
Nguyn liu trc tip B
Nhn cng trc tip loi 1
Nhn cng trc tip loi 2
Gim st
Thi gian s dng my
Tng s
Ngun lc
74
Chng 2: Trnh by d liu

lp bng s liu, bn cn xc nh hai chiu ca bng s th hin nhng g, lp
ct v hng tng ng vi tiu ph hp v chn d liu vo nhng v tr thch hp
trong bng.
1.2 Hng dn lp bng

Bng trn minh ha nhng hng dn nht nh m cc bn nn p dng khi trnh
by d liu theo cch lp bng. C th nh sau:
(a) Nn t tiu r rng cho bng.
(b) t tn r rng cho tt c cc ct.
(c) Nn c tng ph v tr thch hp.
(d) Nn trnh by mt ct tng s; thng thng ct ny bn phi.
(e) Cui mi ct s liu nn c s liu tng.
(f) Khng nn a qu nhiu d liu vo bng, v iu ny khin vic c
thng tin tr nn kh khn.
(g) Loi b thng tin khng cn thit, lm trn ti hng trm hoc hng nghn cho
nhng s ln.
(h) Khng t nhng s liu quan trng vo gia bng. Hy cn nhc vic sp
xp hng v ct theo mc quan trng hoc ln.
e.g.
V D
BNG
Tng s nhn cng trong mt cng ty thng mi l 1.000. H lm vic trong ba

phng: Sn xut, Hnh chnh v Kinh doanh. C 600 ngi trong Phng Sn xut v
300 ngi trong Phng Hnh chnh. C 110 nam thanh nin, 110 n thanh nin v
290 n trung nin. S nhn cng cn li l nam trung nin.
Trong Phng Sn xut c 350 nam trung nin, 150 n trung nin v 50 nam thanh
nin; Phng Hnh chnh c 100 nam trung nin, 110 n trung nin v 50 nam
thanh nin.
Yu cu
V bng minh ha tt c cc thng tin chi tit v nhn cng trong cng ty v cc
phng ban, ng thi a ra thng k th cp ph hp miu t s phn b ca
nhn cng trong cc phng ban.
BI GII
Bng d liu c bn c hai chiu minh ha sau:
(a) Cc phng ban.
(b) Phn tch tui/gii tnh.
Thng k th cp (khc vi d liu th cp) l nhng s liu mang tnh h tr, b sung
cho nhng hng mc chnh ca d liu v gip lm r hoc m rng d liu chnh. Mt
v d ca thng k th cp l s phn trm. Trong v d ny, chng ta c th a ra
mt trong hai la chn sau:
(a) Phn trm ca tng s nhn cng trong tng phng ban theo tui/gii tnh.
(b) Phn trm ca tng mi nhm tui/gii tnh trong tng phng ban.
75

Trong v d ny, phng n (a) c la chn nhng bn c th phn vn rng
phng n (b) s thch hp hn. Trong trng hp ny c hai u hp l, ty thuc
vo mc ch ca vic thu thp v trnh by d liu.
Phn tch d liu nhn cng
Phng ban
Sn xut
Hnh chnh
Nam trung nin
350
58,4
100
N trung nin
150
25,0
50
8,3
Nam thanh nin

N thanh nin
*50
8,3
Tng s
600
100,0
Kinh doanh
Tng s
33,3
**40
40
*490
49
110
36,7
**30
30
290
29
50
16,7
**10
10
110
11
*40
13,3
**20
20
110
11
300 100,0
100
100
1.000
100
* S cn bng b sung cho tng s theo ct.

** S cn bng b sung cho tng s theo hng.
1.3 Sai s do lm trn

Sai s do lm trn (rounding errors) c th xy ra, v d khi tng cc ct phn trm
khng t ti 100%. V vy nn lm trn s ti n v gn nht v hn ch cc sai s
tim n bng vic lm trn ti mt n v nh (v d, lm trn ti 10 GBP1, khng
phi ti 1.000 GBP).
2 BIU
Bng
(Tables)
Biu
(Charts)
Trnh by d liu
(Data presentation)
S bnh qun
(Averages)
Phn phi tn s
(Frequency
distributions)
2.1 Trnh by trc quan

Thay v trnh by d liu trong bng, chng ta c th th hin bng cch trnh by trc
quan theo hnh thc biu .
Mc ch ca biu l truyn ti d liu sao cho vic minh ha ngha v tm quan
trng r rng hn khi miu t bng bng s liu. Khng phi lc no biu cng
thch hp hn bng d liu v cch thc trnh by d liu hp l nht s da vo cc
yu t sau:
1
76
GBP: ng Bng Anh - loi tin t chnh thc Anh

(a) Mc ch m d liu th hin l g. Biu thng tp trung vo mt hoc hai
im, trong khi bng d liu li cung cp nhiu thng tin chi tit hn.
(b) i tng s dng d liu l ai. Mt s ngi nh gi biu d c
hn d liu c lp bng.
CH DN
Chng ta s nghin cu cch lp v din gii th, biu bng cch s dng bng tnh trong
Chng 6.
2.2 Biu hnh trn

NH NGHA
Biu hnh trn (pie chart) dng minh ha bng hnh nh kch thc tng i ca nhng yu
t cu thnh nn mt tng th.
Biu nh vy c gi l biu hnh trn, bi chng c hnh trn, chnh xc l
hnh chic bnh trong mt a trn; sau chic bnh ny s c ct ra thnh
nhiu lt ct. Mi lt ct i din cho mt phn ca tng th.
Biu hnh trn c cc phn khc nhau v kch thc, v bn cn v chng sao cho
tht chnh xc. lm c cng vic ny, bn cn dng n thc o (-ke).
Vic tnh ton cc kch thc trn bao gm c vic chuyn i cc thnh phn ca
tng s thnh cc t l tng ng ca mt hnh trn.
e.g.
V D
BIU HNH TRN
Chi ph sn xut ti Nh my A v Nh my B trong thng 3 nm 20X2 nh sau:

Nh my A
Nghn GBP
Nh my B
%
Nghn GBP
Chi ph nguyn vt liu trc tip
70
35
50
20
Chi ph nhn cng trc tip
30
15
125
50
Chi ph sn xut chung
90
45
50
20
Chi ph vn phng
10
25
10
200
100
250
100
Yu cu
Hy th hin chi ph ca cc nh my bng biu hnh trn.
77

BI GII
chuyn cc thnh phn sang ca mt hnh trn, chng ta c th s dng s liu
phn trm hoc s liu chi ph thc t.
(a) S dng s phn trm, tng s phn trm l 100% v tng s ca mt hnh
trn l 3600. Trc ht, chng ta tnh gi tr mi phn trm theo 360/100 = 3,6.
chuyn t phn trm sang , ta nhn gi tr phn trm vi s tnh trn.
Nh my A
Nh my B
35
126
20
72
15
54
50
180
Chi ph sn xut chung
45
162
20
72
18
10
36
100
360
100
360
Chi ph vn phng
(b) S dng s liu chi ph thc t, chng ta c th nhn tng chi ph vi

Nh my A
S
360
Tng chi ph
200
Nh my B
360
= 1,8
250
= 1,44
c kt qu di y:
Nh my A
Nh my B
Nghn
GBP
Nghn
GBP
70
126
50
72
30
54
125
180
Chi ph sn xut chung
90
162
50
72
Chi ph vn phng
10
18
25
36
200
360
250
360
Chng ta c th v biu hnh trn cho mi nh my nh sau. Chng ta dng thc

o c th v chnh xc, tuy nhin hu ht mi ngi thng dng chng trnh
bng tnh thc hin vic ny.
78

Nh my A
Nh my B
Chi ph vn phng 5%
Chi ph vn phng 10%
Chi ph
sn xut
chung 45%
Chi ph
nguyn vt
liu trc tip
35%
Chi ph
sn xut
chung 20%
Chi ph
nguyn vt
liu trc tip
20%
Chi ph nhn
cng trc tip
50%
Chi ph nhn cng

trc tip 15%
u im ca biu hnh trn nh sau:

(a) Minh ha trc quan, n gin v rt r rng v ln tng i ca mi phn
t trong mt tp hp.
(b) Th hin r rng s chnh lch ca cc i lng (mt phn t ln hn rt
nhiu phn t khc).
(c) Trong mt vi trng hp, biu hnh trn c th ch r s khc nhau ca
cc i lng trong hai tp hp khc nhau. Trong v d trn, biu hnh trn
ca Nh my A v B cho thy chi ph ca Nh my A ch yu bao gm chi ph
sn xut chung v nguyn vt liu trc tip trong khi ti Nh my B, chi ph
nhn cng trc tip l yu t c chi ph cao nht.
Nhc im ca biu hnh trn nh sau:
(a) Biu hnh trn ch a ra kch thc tng i ca cc i lng. Trong
v d v hai nh my trn, biu hnh trn khng ch ra rng tng chi ph ti
Nh my B cao hn 50.000 GBP so vi Nh my A.
(b) Biu hnh trn bao gm vic tnh ton s trong hnh trn v v chnh
xc cc phn. Cng on ny c th tn nhiu thi gian.
(c) Trong mt vi trng hp, chng ta c th gp kh khn trong vic so snh
chnh xc kch thc cc phn bng mt.
2.3 Biu ct
NH NGHA
Biu ct (bar chart) l biu trong cc i lng c minh ha bng ct.
Biu ct l mt trong nhng hnh thc trnh by d liu trc quan ph bin nht.
79

C ba loi biu ct ch yu:
(a) Biu ct n gin.
(b) Biu ct chng, bao gm biu ct chng phn trm.
(c) Biu nhiu ct.
Biu ct n gin (simple bar chart)
Biu ct n gin l biu bao gm mt hoc nhiu ct, trong di mi ct
th hin gi tr cc i lng tng ng.
e.g.
V D
BIU CT N GIN
Doanh s bn hng ca mt cng ty t nm 20X1 n 20X6 nh sau:

Nm
Doanh s bn hng
Nghn GBP
20X1
800
20X2
1.200
20X3
1.100
20X4
1.400
20X5
1.600
20X6
1.700
D liu c th trnh by theo biu ct n gin nh sau:
Doanh s bn hng cng ty
Doanh s
(Nghn GBP)
1.800
1.600
1.400
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
20X1
20X2
20X3
20X4
20X5
20X6
Nm
Hnh 2.1: Biu ct n gin

Mi trc ca biu cn c tn (nhn) r rng, v c chia thang xc nh ln
ca d liu. y, trc y c thang biu th cho doanh s bn hng v v th ngi
xem biu c th thy rng doanh s bn hng khng ch tng theo tng nm (ngoi
tr nm 20X3), m cn thy c doanh s thc t ca mi nm.
80

Biu ct n gin phc v hai mc ch:
(a) Biu th hin ln chnh xc ca mi i lng.
(b) Biu cho php so snh cc kch thc, bng vic so snh di cc
ct trn biu .
Biu ct chng (component bar chart)
Biu ct chng l biu ct th hin s phn tch ca tng tng th theo cc
thnh phn ca n.
e.g.
V D
BIU CT CHNG
Doanh s bn hng ca Cng ty Charbart t nm 20X7 n 20X9 nh sau:

20X7
20X8
20X9
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
Sn phm A
1.000
1.200
1.700
Sn phm B
900
1.000
1.000
Sn phm C
500
600
700
2.400
2.800
3.400
Tng s
Biu ct chng th hin nhng iu sau:

(a) S thay i ca doanh s bn hng qua cc nm.
(b) Thnh phn ca tng th trong mi nm.
Doanh s
(Nghn GBP)
Doanh s bn hng - Cng ty Charbart

t nm 20X7 n 20X9
3.500
3.000
A
2.500
2.000
A
A
1.500
1.000
20X7
20X8
20X9
500
0
Nm
Biu ny th hin c s gia tng trong doanh s bn hng v tm quan trng

ca vic tng lng bn sn phm A - yu t lm tng tng doanh thu cng c xc
nh r rng. S gia tng trong lng bn sn phm A s r rng hn, nu sn phm
A c minh ha bng phn y thay v bng phn nh ca mi ct.
81

Biu ct chng phn trm (percentage component bar chart)
S khc nhau gia biu ct chng v biu ct chng phn trm nm ch, i
vi biu ct chng, tng chiu di cc ct (v chiu di ca mi phn on) biu th
ln. S lng ln hn c minh ha bng mt ct di hn. i vi biu ct
chng phn trm, tng ln khng c minh ha. Nu c hai hoc nhiu ct hn
c v trong biu , tng chiu di ca cc ct l nh nhau. Ch c chiu di ca
cc phn on trong ct l thay i, ph thuc vo ln tng i ca cc thnh
phn trong tng th.
e.g.
V D
BIU CT CHNG PHN TRM
Phn tch doanh s bn hng

Cng ty Charbart 20X7-20X9
100
90
A
42%
A
43%
B
37%
B
36%
C
21%
C
21%
C
21%
20X7
20X8
20X9
80
70
A
50%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
B
29%
Nm
Thng tin v doanh s bn hng ca Cng ty Charbart trong v d trc c th c

minh ha bng biu ct chng phn trm nh sau:
Bng tnh
20X7
20X8
20X9
Nghn
GBP
Nghn
GBP
Nghn
GBP
Sn phm A
1.000
42
1.200
43
1.700
50
Sn phm B
900
37
1.000
36
1.000
29
Sn phm C
500
21
600
21
700
21
2.400
100
2.800
100
3.400
100
Tng s
Biu ny cho thy doanh s bn hng ca sn phm C chim t trng n nh

trong tng doanh s bn hng, t trng ca sn phm A tng ng k trong khi t
trng ca sn phm B li st gim kh nhiu.
Biu nhiu ct (multiple bar chart)
Biu nhiu ct (hoc biu gp - compound bar chart) l biu trong s
dng hai hoc nhiu hn cc ct n trnh by d liu c chia nh theo nhm.
82
e.g.
V D
BIU NHIU CT
D liu v doanh s bn hng ca cng ty Cng ty Charbart c th c trnh by

di dng biu nhiu ct nh sau:
Phn tch doanh s bn hng
Cng ty Charbart 20X7 - 20X9
Doanh s
(Nghn GBP)
Sn phm A
Sn phm B
Sn phm C
2.000
1.600
1.200
800
400
0
20X7
20X8
20X9
Nm
Biu nhiu ct s dng nhiu ct cho mt tng th. Trong v d trn, doanh s bn
hng ca tng nm c th hin qua ba ct n, mi ct tng ng mt sn phm
A, B, C.
i khi biu nhiu ct c v vi cc ct nm ngang, thay v dc.
Biu nhiu ct trnh by thng tin tng t vi biu ct chng, ngoi tr nhng
im sau y:
(a) Biu nhiu ct khng th hin gi tr tng s (trong v d trn l tng doanh
s bn hng mi nm) trong khi biu ct chng li th hin c iu ny.
(b) Biu nhiu ct th hin s so snh ln gia cc i lng mt cch r
rng hn biu ct chng.
BI TP THC HNH 1
(40 PHT)
Thu nhp ca Ngn hng Lemmi nm 20X0, 20X1 v 20X2 nh sau:
Thu nhp t li tc
Thu nhp t hoa hng
Thu nhp khc
20X0
20X1
20X2
Nghn
GBP
Nghn
GBP
Nghn
GBP
3.579
2.961
2.192
857
893
917
62
59
70
83

Yu cu
S dng d liu trn, hy v cc biu sau:
(a) Biu ct n gin.
(b) Biu ct chng.
(c) Biu ct chng phn trm.
(d) Biu nhiu ct.
3 PHN PHI TN S
Bng
(Tables)
Biu
(Charts)
Trnh by d liu
(Data presentation)
Phn phi tn s
(Frequency
distributions)
S bnh qun
(Averages)
3.1 Gii thiu

Thng thng d liu thu v t mt cuc iu tra hoc kho st thng k l hng lot
con s.
65
72
69
71
70
69
71
74
70
70
68
73
69
71
67
67
70
69
68
70
Nhng d liu th nh trn cung cp rt t thng tin; hy tng tng xem nu c

hng trm hoc hng nghn con s th vic trnh by d liu s kh khn nh th
no. Tt nhin d liu c th c sp xp theo trt t kch c (mt dy) v c th
xc nh d liu ln nht, nh nht cng nh cc d liu in hnh.
NH NGHA
Phn phi tn s (frequency distribution) (hoc bng tn s - frequency table) ghi li s ln (tn s)
m mt gi tr xut hin.
Tuy nhin, nhiu tp d liu ch bao gm mt s hu hn cc gi tr, mc d mi gi
tr c th xut hin nhiu ln. Do vy, vic sp xp d liu theo phn phi tn s (theo
s ln xut hin ca mi gi tr) c th rt hu ch. Phn phi tn s cho cc d liu
ni trn (sn lng tnh theo n v ca 20 cng nhn trong mt tun) nh sau:
84

Sn lng tnh theo n v ca 20 cng nhn trong mt tun
Sn lng
S cng nhn (tn s)
n v
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1
20
Khi d liu c trnh by theo cch trn, chng ta c th thy ngay rng 69 v 70
n v sn phm l mc sn lng bnh qun ph bin nht vi mi cng nhn.
3.2 Phn phi tn s phn t

Nu nh c mt tp d liu ln hoc mi (hoc gn nh mi) mc d liu l khc
nhau, th vic phn t cc tn s s thun tin hn. V d, gi s rng sn lng theo
n v ca mi nhm 20 cng nhn trong mt tun nh sau:
1.087
850
1.084
792
924
1.226
1.012
1.205
1.265
1.028
1.230
1.182
1.086
1.130
989
1.155
1.134
1.166
1.129
1.160
Khong gi tr ca sn lng t mc thp nht n cao nht l 792 n 1.265 (khong

l 473 n v). Khong ny c th c chia thnh cc t gm 100 n v (chiu rng
ca t hay khong cch t) v s lng cng nhn t mc sn lng trong mi t
(tn s) c th c phn t nh sau:
Sn lng
n v
S cng nhn (tn s)
700 - 799
800 - 899
900 - 999
1.000 - 1.099
1.100 - 1.199
1.200 - 1.299
4
20
85

Tuy nhin, cn lu rng nu cc i lng c phn t (grouped) theo cch
ny th gi tr ring ca chng s bin mt.
Phn phi tn s phn t cho bin lin tc
Cng nh vic p dng cho bin ri rc ( nu trn), phn phi tn s phn t
(hoc bng tn s phn t) c th dng trnh by d liu ca bin lin tc.
e.g.
V D
PHN PHI TN S PHN T CHO BIN LIN TC
Gi s chng ta mun ghi li chiu cao ca 50 ngi khc nhau. Thng tin c th
c trnh by theo phn phi tn s phn t nh sau:
Chiu cao (cm)
S ngi (tn s)
Nh hn hoc bng 154
Ln hn 154, nh hn hoc bng 163
16
18
Ln hn 190
4
50
Ch nhng im sau:
(a) Khng th chia thnh tng khong 0-154, 154-163, 163-172, bi v khi
154 cm v 163 cm s c phn vo hai t v iu ny khng c php
xy ra. Mc d mi gi tr c th ch nm trong mt t, chng ta phi chc
chn rng mi gi tr c th phi c phn vo mt t no . Cch phn
t nh 154-162, 163-172 s khng ph hp v chiu cao 162,5 cm s khng
thuc vo t no c. Tuy nhin, nhng loi t ny c th c s dng cho
bin ri rc.
(b) mi u ca phn phi tn s c mt t m. iu ny l do chiu cao t
154 cm tr xung v 190 cm tr ln c cho l khng ph bin, v th t
m c s dng gp nhm tt c cc tn s li.
Lp bng phn phi tn s phn t

lp bng phn phi tn s phn t, chng ta phi quyt nh chiu rng ca mi
t. Tuy nhin, bn nn tun theo nhng hng dn sau y:
(a) Kch thc ca mi t nn ph hp vi tnh cht ca d liu thu thp c
v thng thng khong cch t thay i theo tng trng hp.
(b) Cn trn v cn di ca mi khong cch t nn l nhng s c lm
trn ph hp cc khong cch t l bi ca 5, 10, 100, 1.000 v d
nu khong cch t l 10 v gi tr cc phn t t 23 n 62 (bin ri rc)
th khong cch t s l 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59 v 60-69 thay v 23-32,
33-42, 43-52 v 53-62.
86

(c) Vi bin lin tc: Xy ra mt trong hai trng hp.
(i) Cn trn ca mt t nn nh hn hoc bng v cn di ca t k
tip nn ln hn
(ii) Cn trn ca mt t nn l nh hn v cn di ca t k tip nn
ti thiu t...
BI TP THC HNH 2
(20 PHT)
Thu nhp t hoa hng trong thng 5 nm 20X3 ca nhn vin trong mt ca hng
tp ha nh sau (n v tnh theo bng Anh):
60
35
53
47
25
44
55
58
47
71
63
67
57
44
61
48
50
56
61
42
43
38
41
39
61
51
27
56
57
50
55
68
55
50
25
48
44
43
49
73
53
35
36
41
45
71
56
40
69
52
36
47
66
52
32
46
44
32
52
58
49
41
45
45
48
36
46
42
52
33
31
36
40
66
53
58
60
52
66
51
51
44
59
53
51
57
35
45
46
54
46
54
51
39
64
43
54
47
60
45
Yu cu
Lp mt bng phn phi tn s phn t phn loi thu nhp t hoa hng thnh cc
t c khong cch t l 5 GBP, vi t u tin l 25 GBP v di 30 GBP.
Bn c th din gii bng phn phi tn s phn t v trnh by ni dung din gii ny
dng vn bn. Trong v d trc ni v chiu cao, ni dung din gii cc d liu
cng kh r rng.
(a) Hu ht chiu cao trong khong 154 cm v 190 cm.
(b) Hu ht chiu cao nm gia khong ny, ch c mt s t ngi c chiu
cao thp hn cn di hoc cao hn cn trn ca khong ny.
3.3 Phn phi tn s tch ly

NH NGHA
Phn phi tch ly (cumulative distribution) (hoc bng tn s tch ly) c th c dng ch
tng s ln xut hin ca mt gi tr bn trn hoc bn di mt gi tr nht nh.
87

Sau y l bng phn phi tn s tch ly phn t m chng ta xem xt phn
trc:
Sn lng
n v
S cng nhn (tn s)
700 - 799
800 - 899
900 - 999
1.000 - 1.099
1.100 - 1.199
1.200 - 1.299
4
20
Di y l hai bng phn phi tn s tch ly c th lp cho nhng d liu trn.

1.
Tn s tch ly
2.
Tn s tch ly
700
20
< 800
800
19
< 900
900
18
< 1.000
1.000
16
< 1.100
1.100
11
< 1.200
16
1.200
< 1.300
20
Ch :
(a) Du > c ngha l ln hn v c ngha l ln hn hoc bng.
Du < c ngha l nh hn v du c ngha l nh hn hoc bng.
Vic gi tn tng t s d dng hn khi s dng nhng du ny.
(b) Bng phn phi tn s tch ly th nht cho thy trong tng s 20 cng nhn,
19 cng nhn sn xut 800 n v hoc hn, 18 cng nhn sn xut 900 n
v hoc hn, 16 cng nhn sn xut 1.000 n v hoc hn...
(c) Bng phn phi tn s tch ly th hai ch ra rng, trong tng s 20 cng
nhn, 1 ngi sn xut di 800 n v, 2 ngi sn xut di 900 n v,
4 ngi sn xut di 1.000 n v
3.4 Biu tn s
NH NGHA
Biu tn s (histogram) trnh by mt phn phi tn s di dng hnh nh trc quan.
Vic din gii d liu s tr nn d dng sau khi d liu c trnh by di dng
hnh nh, hn l di dng bng s liu. Bng phn phi tn s c th c th hin
bng hnh nh di dng mt biu tn s. Biu tn s gn ging vi biu
88

hnh ct, ngoi tr mt iu: cc ct c xp lin nhau. Nu nh trong biu ct,
cc tn s c biu hin bng cao ca ct, th trong biu tn s, cc tn s li
c biu hin bng din tch (area) vng b bao ph bi cc ct.
Biu tn s trnh by phn phi tn s vi cc khong cch t bng nhau
Nu nhng khong cch t bng nhau, nh bng di y, th chiu rng cc ct
ca biu tn s s bng nhau, v chiu cao s c t l tng ng vi cc tn s.
Sn lng
n v
S cng nhn (tn s)
700 - 799
800 - 899
900 - 999
1.000 - 1.099
1.100 - 1.199
1.200 - 1.299
4
20
Biu tn s gn ging vi biu ct (bar chart), ngoi tr vic cc ct c t

st nhau.
S cng nhn 7
(mt tn s)
6
5
4
3
2
1
700
800
900
1.000
1.100 1.200 1.300

Sn lng (n v)
Hnh 2.2: Biu tn s

Ch l cc d liu ri rc c xem nh d liu lin tc v cc khong cch
c thay i thnh >700 v 800, >800 v 900 v tng t.
Do cc ct c t lin nhau, nn khi trnh by d liu ri rc th nhng d liu ny
phi c x l nh d liu lin tc khng c khong trng gia cc t. V d i
vi im s mn kri-k trong nhng cuc u khc nhau, cc t s phi l 0 v <10,
10 nhng <20 v tng t, thay v: 0-9, 10-19
Biu tn s trnh by phn phi tn s vi khong cch t khng bng nhau
Nu mt bng phn phi c cc khong cch t khng bng nhau, th chiu cao ca
cc ct phi c iu chnh, do cc ct khng c cng chiu rng.
89
e.g.
V D
BIU TN S VI KHONG CCH T KHNG BNG NHAU
Thu nhp hng tun ca nhn vin Phng Lut Cng ty Salt Lake nh sau:
Tin cng bnh qun (GBP)
S nhn vin
600
> 600 800
> 800 900
> 900 1.200
> 1.200
Khong cch t ca tin cng i vi cc nhn vin l khng ng u, bin ng t

100 n 300 GBP.
Biu tn s s c v nh sau:
(a) Chiu rng ca tng ct trn biu phi tng ng vi khong cch
t. Ni cch khc, cc ct biu din mc tin cng >600 GBP 800 GBP
(khong cch t = 200 GBP) s rng gp hai ln so vi ct biu din mc
tin cng >800 GBP 900 GBP (khong cch t = 100 GBP).
(b) Chiu rng tiu chun ca ct phi c xc nh. Chiu rng ny nn ly
theo rng ca khong cch t xut hin nhiu nht. Trong v d ny, cc
khong cch t 100 GBP, 200 GBP, 300 GBP, mi khong cch t ny xut
hin mt ln. Khong cch t 200 GBP s c chn lm chiu rng chun.
(c) Cc t c khong m s b chn. Thng th rng ca nhng t ny s
c ly bng rng ca t lin st n. Trong v d ny, t 600 GBP s
l >400 GBP v 600 GBP, v t >1.200 GBP s l >1.200 GBP v
1.500 GBP.
(d) Mi tn s s c nhn vi t l ( rng tiu chun rng thc ca t)
tnh chiu cao ca ct trn biu tn s.
(e) Chiu cao ca mi ct s khng tng ng vi tn s, m tng ng vi mt
tn s, v do , trc tung s c gn nhn l Mt tn s.
(f)
Khong cch t (GBP)
Kch c
Tn s iu chnh Chiu cao
khong cch
ca ct
t
> 400 600
200
200/200
> 600 800
20
200/200
> 800 900
10
200/200
12
> 900 1.200
30
200/300
>1.200 1.500
30
200/300
(i) Hai ct u tin s c chiu cao bnh thng.

(ii) Ct th ba s cao gp hai ln so vi tn s ca t l 6, do rng ca
ct ch bng mt na so vi rng chun.
(iii) Ct th t v th nm s cao gp 2/3 ln so vi cc tn s ca t l 6 v
3, do khong cch t (300 GBP) bng 150% so vi rng tiu chun.
90

Biu tn s thu nhp hng tun ca cc nhn vin
Phng Lut, Cng ty Salt Lake
Mt
tn s
12
10
8
6
4
2
400
600
800 900
1.200
Thu nhp
(GBP)
1.500
Ch l d liu s c coi l lin tc do chnh lch gia cc gi tr (v d gia

799,99 GBP v 800,00 GBP) l rt nh.
BI TP THC HNH 3
(10 PHT)
Lc lng bn hng ca cng ty va hon thnh xut sc mt chin dch bn hng.

Hot ng ca tng nhn vin bn hng c phn tch vo mt bng phn phi tn
s phn t nh sau:
Doanh s (GBP)
S nhn vin bn
hng
< 10.000
> 10.000 12.000
10
> 12.000 14.000
12
> 14.000 18.000
> 18.000 22.000
> 22.000
Yu cu
T thng tin trn, v mt biu tn s.
3.5 Biu a gic tn s

Biu tn s khng phi l phng php c chnh xc cao biu din mt
bng phn phi tn s, bi khi phn t cc tn s, ngi ta gi nh rng nhng tn
s ny xut hin ng u trn ton b khong, m iu ny th t khi xy xa. Chng
ta c th khc phc bng cch bin i mt biu tn s thnh mt biu a gic
tn s (frequency polygon). Biu a gic tn s c xy dng da trn gi nh
rng trong mi khong cch t, tn s xut hin ca cc n v d liu l khng ng
u nhau. S c nhiu gi tr cui cc khong gn vi nh ca biu tn s, v
th, mt bng ca nh ct trong biu tn s nn c thay i thnh cc ng
i ln hoc i xung.
91

Biu a gic tn s s c xy dng t mt biu tn s theo cch sau:
(a) nh du trung im ca nh mi ct trn biu tn s.
(b) Ni nhng im ny li thnh cc ng thng.
im cui ca th (trung im ca hai ct cui cng) c ni vi trc honh ti
trung im ca khong cch t k tip. T k tip ny khng nm trong dy d liu
m chng ta ang quan st. Khong cch t ny nn ly cng kch thc vi khong
cch ca t cui cng trong dy d liu ang c quan st.
e.g.
V D
BIU A GIC TN S
Bng phn phi tn s phn t di y ch s trng hp m chi ph c bit t

n mt lng xc nh trc trong 40 tun qua.
Chi ph (GBP)
S trng hp
> 800 1.000
> 1.000 1.200
10
> 1.200 1.400
12
> 1.400 1.600
10
4
> 1.600 1.800
40
Yu cu
Xy dng mt biu a gic tn s.
BI GII
Trc tin, ta v mt biu tn s, cch v c trnh by phn trc. Tt c
cc t c cng chiu rng.
Trung im ca khong cch t khng nm trong dy d liu ang c quan st l
700 v 1.900.
Mt
tn s
12
Biu tn s biu din tn s ca chi ph c bit
10
4
2
0
92
800
1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1.800
Chi ph (GBP)

ng cong tn s (frequency curve)
Biu a gic tn s l tp hp nhng on thng ni cc im, nn y cng cha
hn l mt cch biu din d liu chnh xc. Mt cch khc c th t c chnh
xc cao hn l chia khong cch t nh hn. Nu ta chia khong cch t ca bng
phn phi nh, biu a gic tn s s tr nn rt trn. Khi , n tr thnh
mt ng cong.
3.6 Biu ng cong

NH NGHA
Biu ng cong (ogive) biu din s lng tch ly ca mt i lng vi gi tr nh hn hoc
bng, hay ln hn hoc bng, mt lng nht nh.
Nu c th biu din bng phn phi tn s phn t bng mt biu tn s, th c
th biu din bng phn phi tn s tch ly di dng biu ng cong.
e.g.
V D
BIU NG CONG
Xem bng phn phi tn s di y:

S n v li b loi b trong iu tra
Tn s
Tn s tch ly
>01
>12
10
>23
13
>34
14
14
Biu ng cong s c v nh sau:
Tn s
tch ly
Biu ng cong cc hng mc b loi b
15
10
S lng cc n v li
b loi b khi iu tra
93

Biu ng cong c v bng cch xc nh cc tn s tch ly trn th v ni
chng vi nhau bng ng thng. Mc d s dng cc ng cong s chnh xc
hn, nhng khi lm bi thi, vic s dng cc ng thng khi v biu ny cng
c chp nhn. Khi s dng cc on thng ni cc im, chng ta thu c
mt biu a gic tn s tch ly, cn khi s dng cc ng cong trn ni cc
im, kt qu thu c l mt ng cong tn s tch ly.
i vi bng phn phi tn s phn t, ti im chng ta xc nh gi tr ca bin, tn
s tch ly s c biu din cho cn trn ca khong cch t. V d, vi t ln hn
2, nh hn hoc bng 3, tn s tch ly s c v tng ng vi 3.
BI TP THC HNH 4
(10 PHT)
Di y l mt bng phn phi tn s phn t, cho bit tng sn lng c sn

xut ti mt nh my trong vng 40 tun:
Sn lng (n v)
S ln t c
mc sn lng
> 0 200
> 200 400
> 400 600
12
> 600 800
10
> 800 1.000
6
40
Yu cu
V biu ng cong thch hp, v c lng s tun m nh my sn xut c
t hn hoc bng 550 n v.
Chng ta cng c th s dng biu ng cong biu din s n v tch ly ln
hn hoc bng mt gi tr cho sn.
e.g.
V D
BIU NG CONG HNG XUNG
Bng phn phi tn s di y biu din sn lng ca mt nh my trong 80 tun:

Sn lng mi tun (n v)
>
S ln t c mc sn lng
0 100
10
> 100 200
20
> 200 300
25
> 300 400
15
> 400 500
10
80
94

Nu chng ta mun v mt biu ng cong biu din s tun m sn lng
vt qu mt gi tr nht nh, tng tch ly s c bt u t 80 v gim xung 0.
Trong khi v biu ng cong, chng ta xc nh gi tr ca bin, tn s tch ly
gim dn s c v tng ng vi cn di ca mi khong cch t.
Cn di ca khong
cch t
Tn s
Tn s tch ly (ln hn)
10
80
100
20
70
200
25
50
300
15
25
400
10
10
500
S ln t
c mc
sn lng
Biu ng cong th hin sn lng t c

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
Sn lng mi tun
Phi m bo rng bn hiu c ngha ca ng cong ny.

V d, 350 trn trc x tng ng vi 18 trn trc y. iu ny c ngha l sn lng ln
hn hoc bng 350 n v mt tun t c 18 ln trong s 80 tun.
BI TP THC HNH 5
(5 PHT)
Nu mun v biu ng cong biu din s sinh vin trong lp c im thi t

55% tr ln, bn s phi v biu hng ln hay hng xung?
95
3.7 th chui thi gian

NH NGHA
Chui thi gian (time series) bao gm nhng d liu bng s c thu thp, quan st hay ghi chp
li ti nhng khong thi gian u nhau nh tng gi, tng ngy, tng thng, tng qu hay tng
nm. C th, n l tp hp nhng d liu thu thp c t vic quan st theo trnh t thi gian. Trong
ting Anh, mt th chui thi gian c gi l historigram.
Mt s v d v chui thi gian nh gi c ph tng tun ti Brazil, lng tiu th
in tng thng mt th trn nht nh, s lng hnh khch i tu ha tng thng,
doanh s bn ca mt loi -t theo tng qu, lng ma hng nm ti Lun n
trong nhiu nm, lng sinh vin ng k vo mt trng cao ng hay i hc trong
mt s nm v.v
th chui thi gian (time series graph) o lng thi gian trn trc x v biu din
mt hay nhiu bin trn trc y. th ny cng th hin xu hng, l khuynh hng
tng hay gim chung ca mt bin.
Mt chui thi gian thnh phn l d liu m nhng nhm khc nhau (v d, doanh
s hng thng ca bn chi nhnh ca mt t chc bn l) c th c xem l nhng
thnh phn ca mt tng th c ngha (tng doanh s hng thng ca t chc bn l
ny). Mt khc, chui thi gian phc hp l d liu m trong cc nhm ca tng
giai on khng th cng li thnh mt tng th c ngha. Mt v d l gi ca nhng
mt hng thc phm, nh ch (n v tnh l gi), hay bnh m (n v tnh l ).
CH DN
Chng ta s tr li ni dung ny trong Chng 5.
e.g.
V D
CHUI THI GIAN
D liu di y cho thy doanh s ca mt loi sn phm trong giai on 20X620X8. (n v tnh doanh s: Nghn GBP)
Nm
Qu 1
Qu 2
Qu 4
20X6
86
42
57
112
20X7
81
39
55
107
20X8
77
35
52
99
Yu cu
Biu din s liu trn theo chui thi gian.
96
Qu 3

BI GII
Doanh s bn hng t 20X6 n 20X8
Doanh s
(Nghn GBP)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2 3
20X6
2 3
20X7
2 3
20X8
4 S BNH QUN
Bng
(Tables)
Biu
(Charts)
Trnh by d liu
(Data presentation)
Phn phi tn s
(Frequency
distributions)
S bnh qun
(Averages)
4.1 Trung bnh s hc

NH NGHA
Trung bnh s hc (arithmetic mean) c tnh bng tng gi tr ca cc phn t chia cho s lng
cc phn t. Trung bnh s hc ca mt bin s x c biu th l x (x ngang).
Trung bnh s hc (hay cn gi l gi tr trung bnh) l loi s bnh qun c bit n
nhiu nht. i vi d liu cha phn t, trung bnh s hc c tnh theo cng thc:
Trung bnh s hc =
Tng gi tr cc phn t
S lng cc phn t
V d, lng trung bnh ca mi lao ng l lng tin mi cng nhn nhn c

cng li v chia u cho mi ngi.
97
e.g.
V D
TRUNG BNH S HC
Nhu cu tng ngy i vi mt sn phm trong vng 20 ngy nh sau:

3 12 7 17 3 14 9 6 11 10 1 4 19 7 15 6 9 12 12 8
Trung bnh s hc ca nhu cu hng ngy v sn phm l:
Tng s nhu cu
S ngy
185
20
= 9,25 n v
Trung bnh s hc ca mt bin s x c biu th l x (x ngang).

V vy, trong v d trn x = 9,25 n v.
Trong v d trn, khng c ngy no thc s c nhu cu l 9,25 sn phm. Trung bnh
s hc ch l s i din ca nhu cu bnh qun hng ngy trong 20 ngy.
Tm trung bnh s hc ca d liu trong mt phn phi tn s
Khi phn tch d liu, ngi ta thng yu cu bn tnh trung bnh s hc ca mt
phn phi tn s. v d trc, phn phi tn s c ch ra nh sau:
x=
98
Nhu cu hng ngy
Tn s
Nhu cu hng ngy x

tn s
fx
12
14
18
10
10
11
11
12
36
14
14
15
15
17
17
19
19
20
185
185
= 9,25
20

K hiu tng s, xch ma ()
K hiu thng k cho trung bnh s hc ca mt tp d liu s dng biu tng
(xch ma - sigma). c ngha l tng ca v c s dng nh cch vit ngn gn
ca tng ca mt tp gi tr.
V vy, v d trc:
(a) f l tng cc tn s, bng 20;
(b) fx l tng tt c cc gi tr tn s nhn vi lng cu hng ngy, l tt c
14 gi tr ca fx, v th fx = 185.
Cng thc k hiu tnh trung bnh s hc ca mt phn phi tn s
S dng k hiu , cng thc trung bnh s hc ca mt phn phi tn s l:
fx
fx
x = n hay
f
trong n l s phn t c ghi chp li, hay s phn t c tnh ton.
Tm trung bnh s hc ca d liu phn t
Ngi ta cng c th yu cu bn tnh ton (t nht l tnh xp x) trung bnh s hc
ca mt phn phi tn s, c tn s c biu hin theo khong cch t.
S dng v d trc, phn phi tn s c th c biu th nh sau:
Nhu cu hng ngy
Tn s
>05
> 5 10
> 10 15
> 15 20
2
20
Tt nhin, hin ti s kh hn tm s bnh qun; khi d liu c phn t, mt s

lng tng i cc thng tin chi tit b mt v gi tr bin s c s dng trong
vic tnh ton trung bnh s hc l khng c th.
Bi vy, tnh trung bnh s hc ca d liu phn t, chng ta cn da vo gi tr
i din nht cho tt c cc gi tr trong mt khong cch t c th.
Tr s gia (mid-point) ca mi t thng c ly theo quy c, gi s tn s xut
hin u nhau dy khong cch t. v d trn, bin l ri rc, v th t u tin
bao gm 1, 2, 3, 4 v 5, s c tr s gia l 3. Vi bin lin tc (v d lng nhin liu
tiu th theo lt), tr s gia s l 2,5; 7,5 v tng t th. Khi gi tr ca x c
xc nh, trung bnh s hc c tnh hon ton theo cch tng t nh Phn 4.1.
99
e.g.
V D
TRUNG BNH S HC CA D LIU PHN T
Nhu cu hng ngy
Tr s gia
Tn s
fx
>05
12
> 5 10
64
> 10 15
13
78
> 15 20
18
36
f = 20
fx = 190
Trung bnh s hc x =
fx 190
=
= 9,5 n v
f 20
Bi v v d ny vic gi s tn s xut hin nh nhau trong mi khong cch t

l khng hon ton chnh xc, trung bnh s hc xp x 9,5 cng khng phi l hon
ton chnh xc v sai s l 0,25.
Khi s lng cc tn s nhiu ln, sai s s nh i.
Tm trung bnh s hc ca d liu kt hp

Gi s tui trung bnh ca mt nhm 5 ngi l 27 v tui trung bnh ca mt
nhm khc c 8 ngi l 32. Bng cch no chng ta c th tm ra tui trung bnh
ca ton b nhm vi 13 ngi?
Hy nh cch tnh trung bnh s hc nh sau:
Tng gi tr cc phn t
S lng cc phn t
Tng s tui nhm th nht l 5 x 27
= 135
Tng s tui nhm th hai l 8 x 32
= 256
Tng s tui ca c 13 ngi l 135 + 256 = 391
391
V vy tui trung bnh l
= 30,07 tui.
13
BI TP THC HNH 6
(5 PHT)
8 kg l cn nng bnh qun ca 10 n v nng 5 kg, 10 n v nng 7 kg v 20 n

v nng X kg. Gi tr ca X l bao nhiu?
100

u im v nhc im ca trung bnh s hc
u im ca trung bnh s hc l:
(a) D tnh ton.
(b) D hiu.
(c) C tnh i din cho ton b tp d liu v xc nh c chnh xc s hc
v gi tr ca tt c cc phn t u c mt trong cng thc tnh ton.
(d) c h tr bi l thuyt ton hc v ph hp vi vic phn tch thng k
chuyn su.
Nhc im ca trung bnh s hc l:
(a) Trung bnh s hc c th khng tng ng vi bt k gi tr thc t no. V
d, s tr em trung bnh trong mt gia nh l 2,3 tr em, nhng khng c
gia nh no c chnh xc 2,3 tr em.
(b) Trung bnh s hc c th b bp mo bi nhng gi tr cc k cao hoc thp.
V d, bnh qun ca 3, 4, 4, v 6 l 4,25; nhng bnh qun ca 3, 4, 4, 6 v
15 l 6,4. Gi tr cao, 15, bp mo s trung bnh v trong mt vi trng hp,
s trung bnh l mt con s gy hiu nhm v khng hp l (Lu l cc
gi tr qu cao hoc qu thp thng khng ph bin trong d liu kinh t).
BI TP THC HNH 7
(10 PHT)
Thu nhp ca 69 nhn vin ca Cng ty Mermaid cho tun l kt thc vo ngy 15
thng 11 nh sau:
Lng (GBP)
S lng nhn vin
300
> 300 350
11
> 350 400
16
> 400 450
15
> 450 500
10
> 500 550
> 550
6
69
Yu cu
Tnh lng trung bnh ca cc nhn vin ca Cng ty Mermaid Ltd cho tun kt thc
vo ngy 15 thng 11.
4.2 Mt
Loi th hai ca s bnh qun l mt hay gi tr mt.
NH NGHA
Mt (mode) l s bnh qun cho bit gi tr xut hin thng xuyn nht.
101
e.g.
V D
MT
Nhu cu hng ngy ca mt kho trong khong thi gian 10 ngy nh sau:
Nhu cu
S ngy
n v
6
1
10
Mt l 7 n v, bi v y l gi tr xut hin thng xuyn nht.

Tm mt ca mt phn phi tn s phn t
Mt ca mt phn phi tn s phn t c th c tnh t mt biu tn s.
e.g.
V D
TM MT T MT BIU TN S
Xem xt phn phi tn s phn t sau y:

Gi tr
Tn s
n nh hn
10
10
20
50
20
30
150
30
40
100
T cha gi tr mt (t c tn s cao nht) l t 20 n nh hn 30. Tuy nhin bng

cch no chng ta c th tm ra mt gi tr n l biu th mt.
Chng ta cn v mt biu tn s nh di y:
Tn s 150
100
50
0
10 20 30 40
Gi tr
T cha gi tr mt lun l t c ct cao nht, c th khng phi l t c tn s cao

nht nu cc t khng c chiu rng bng nhau.
102

Chng ta c th c tnh mt bng hnh hc nh sau:
(a) Ni mt ng thng t trn nh gc bn tri ca ct c t cha gi tr mt
v nh gc bn tri ca ct tip theo bn phi.
(b) Ni mt ng thng t trn nh gc bn phi ca ct c t cha gi tr mt
v nh gc bn phi ca ct tip theo bn tri.
Ti im hai ng ny giao nhau, chng ta s tm c gi tr mt cn tnh. Trong
v d ny, n xp x bng 27.
Biu biu th mt
Tn s
150
100
50
Mt = 26,7
0
10 20 30 40
Gi tr
Chng ta ang gi s l tn s xut hin bng nhau mi khong cch t nhng iu

ny khng phi lc no cng ng. 150 gi tr t cha gi tr mt c th khng xut
hin u nhau. V vy mt ca phn phi tn s phn t ch l c tnh.
u im v nhc im ca mt
Mt l s bnh qun thch hp s dng hn l trung bnh s hc khi m vic bit
gi tr ph bin nht l hu ch hn. V d, i vi nh sn xut mong mun bt u
sn xut mt ngnh cng nghip mi, s c ch hn cho h khi bit khch hng c
nhu cu cao nht v loi sn phm no do ngnh cng nghip sn xut.
u im ca mt l:
(a) D tm.
(b) Khng b nh hng bi mt vi gi tr qu cao hoc qu thp.
(c) C th s dng cho d liu khng phi l s (khng ging nh trung bnh s
hc v trung v).
(d) C th l gi tr thc ca mt phn t trong phn phi.
Nhc im ca mt l:
(a) C th khng phi l gi tr i din; mt khng tnh ti t l tng gi tr ca
d liu so vi tng th, n ch i din cho gi tr ph bin nht.
(b) Khng xem xt tt c cc gi tr ca tp d liu.
(c) C th c hai hoc nhiu mt trong mt tp d liu.
(d) Nu t cha gi tr mt ch ln hn cc t khc mt cht, th ch mt t phn
t t khc y c th to ra mt kt qu khc bit, iu ny gy ra s khng
n nh trong tnh ton.
103
4.3 Trung v
Loi th ba ca s bnh qun l trung v.
NH NGHA
Trung v (median) l gi tr gia ca mt phn phi, khi tt c cc phn t c sp xp theo th
t ln.
Trung v l s gia hay l bch phn v th 50th. V tr ca mt bch phn v c th
(P) trong n phn t sp xp theo th t ln c th c tnh bng P/100 (n+1).
Tnh trung v ca 13 s = 50/100 (13 + 1) = s th 7th.
CH DN
Chng ta s tm hiu thm bch phn v (percentile) chng tip theo.
e.g.
V D
TRUNG V
Trung v ca 9 gi tr sau:
8
12
15
20
11
c tnh bng cch ly phn t gia (phn t th 5) trong dy ( c sp xp

li theo th t ln):
3
11
12
15
20
Trung v l 9.
Phn t gia ca mt s lng phn t l c tnh l phn t th
(n + 1)th
2
Xem xt dy sp xp sau:
1
11
Trung v l 4, bi v, vi mt s lng phn t chn, chng ta phi ly s trung bnh

cng ca cc s gia (trong v d ny (3+5)/2 = 4). Tuy nhin, khi c nhiu phn t
th khng nn lm cch ny.
BI TP THC HNH 8
(10 PHT)
Thi gian sn xut mt l 100 n v sn phm X c ghi li di y:

21 pht 17 pht 24 pht 11 pht 37 pht 27 pht
Thi gian trung v l bao nhiu?
104

Tm trung v ca phn phi tn s khng phn t
C th tm trung v ca mt phn phi tn s khng phn t bng cch tng t. Xem
xt phn phi sau:
Gi tr
Tn s
Tn s tch ly
12
10
16
12
22
17
30
19
35
35
Trung v s bng (35+1)/2 = phn t th 18. Phn t th 18 c gi tr l 16, nh chng
ta c th thy t nhng tn s tch ly ct ngoi cng bn phi trong bng trn.
Tm trung v ca phn phi tn s phn t
Chng ta c th thit lp trung v ca mt phn phi tn s phn t t biu
ng cong.
e.g.
V D
TRUNG V T BIU NG CONG
V biu ng cong ca phn phi tn s di y v t tm trung v.

T
Tn s
Tn s tch ly
340 < 370
17
17
370 < 400
26
400 < 430
35
430 < 460
38
40
GBP
460 < 490
40
BI GII
Tn s
tch ly 40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
x
340
370
400
430
460
490 GBP
105

Trung v tng ng vi phn t x (40 + 1) = gia phn t th 20 v 21. T trc
honh ca th, ta thy gi tr ca trung v xp x bng 380 GBP.
Lu rng, v chng ta ang gi s tt c cc gi tr tri u trong mi t, nn trung
v tnh c ch l s tng i.
u im v nhc im ca trung v
Trung v ch c quan tm khi c mt khong gi tr v phn t gia c mt ngha
nht nh. C th ng dng thch hp nht ca trung v l so snh s thay i ca
gi tr gia qua thi gian.
Trung v d hiu v (ging nh mt) khng b nh hng bi nhng gi tr qu cao
hoc qu thp. Trung v c th l gi tr ca mt phn t thc t trong phn phi.
Tuy nhin, trung v khng phn nh c ton b khong gi tr, khng thch hp
cho cc phn tch thng k chuyn su, v vic sp xp d liu theo th t ln
c th gy nhm chn.
CH DN
Trong chng tip theo, chng ta s tip tc nghin cu vic tnh ton cc s o phn tn. Chng
c s dng m t mc phn tn xung quanh trung tm ca phn phi. Chng bao gm
khong, lch trung bnh, phng sai, lch chun v h s bin thin.
106
TNG KT CHNG
Chng ny xem xt mt s cch trnh by d liu v nghin cu ba loi s

bnh qun.
Bng biu l cch n gin trnh by thng tin v hai bin s.
Biu thng th hin ngha ca d liu r rng hn bng biu.
C ba loi biu ct chnh: n gin, ct chng (bao gm ct chng phn trm)

v nhiu ct (hay gp).
Phn phi tn s c s dng nu gi tr ca cc bin s c th xut hin nhiu

hn mt ln. Chc chn rng bn bit s khc nhau gia phn phi tn s phn
t v phn phi tn s tch ly.
Mt phn phi tn s c th c trnh by trc quan qua cc biu tn s. S

lng quan st trong mt t c trnh by bng din tch ca ct, thay v chiu
cao ca n. Biu a gic tn s v ng cong tn s c l l phng php
trnh by d liu chnh xc hn biu tn s chun.
Mt biu ng cong ch ra s phn t tch ly c gi tr b hn hoc bng,

hay ln hn hoc bng, mt gi tr nht nh.
Trung bnh s hc l loi s bnh qun ph bin nht v c hiu rng ri nht.
N c s dng cho phn tch thng k chuyn su.
Mt l gi tr xut hin thng xuyn nht.
Trung v l gi tr ca thnh phn gia mt dy.
Trung bnh s hc, mt v trung v ca phn phi tn s phn t ch c tnh

ton mt cch tng i.
By gi bn c th tnh ba s bnh qun ca mt tp gi tr c bn, ca mt

phn phi tn s phn t v ca mt phn phi tn s khng phn t.
107
CU HI N TP
1 Nhng hng dn chnh ca vic lp bng l g?

2 Nhc im ca biu hnh trn l g?
3 Nu tn ca ba loi biu ct chnh.
4 Bn lp bng phn phi tn s phn t nh th no?
5 Phn phi tn s tch ly l g?
6 Cn c nhng php tnh g khi v mt biu tn s?
7 Bn v a gic tn s t mt biu tn s nh th no?
8 Bn v mt biu ng cong nh th no?
9 Xc nh cng thc cho trung bnh s hc ca mt phn phi tn s.
10 nh ngha mt.
11 Gii thch cch tnh mt t biu tn s ca mt phn phi.
12 nh ngha trung v.
13 Nu cch tnh trung v ca mt phn phi tn s phn t.
108
P N CU HI N TP
1 (a) Bng nn c mt tiu r rng.

(b) Tt c cc ct nn c t tn r rng.
(c) Nn c tng ph r rng v tr thch hp.
(d) C th trnh by mt ct tng; thng l ct bn phi.
(e) Nn t tng s di chn mi ct s.
(f) Khng nn t nhiu d liu trong bng.
(g) Lm trn nhng s ln ti hng trm hoc hng nghn.
(h) t ct/hng theo th t tm quan trng hoc ln.
2 (a) Chng ch th hin kch c ca cc thnh phn lin quan.
(b) Chng bao gm vic tnh ton s o trn mt vng trn v v cc phn
mt cch chnh xc (vic ny c th tn thi gian).
(c) i lc rt kh so snh kch c chnh xc ca mt phn bng mt.
3 (a) Biu ct n gin.
(b) Biu ct chng.
(c) Biu nhiu ct (hay biu gp).
4 lp mt phn phi tn s phn t, phi xc nh c khong cch t.
(a) Kch c mi t cn ph hp vi tnh cht ca d liu c ghi chp, v
khong cch t thch hp nht thay i ty thuc vo tng trng hp.
(b) Cn trn v cn di ca mi khong cch t nn l mt s c lm trn
thch hp vi khong cch t, thng l bi s ca 5, 10, 100, 1000 v tng
t th.
(c) Vi nhng bin lin tc, hoc l:
(i) Cn trn ca mi khong cch t s nh hn hoc bng... v cn di
ca khong cch t tip theo s ln hn hoc
(ii) Cn trn ca khong cch t s nh hn v cn di ca khong
cch t tip theo s ti thiu t.
5 Mt phn phi tn s tch ly (hay bng tn s tch ly) c th c s dng
ch ra tng s ln xut hin ca mt gi tr trn hoc di mt gi tr no .
6 (a) Chiu rng ca mi ct trong biu phi tng xng vi khong cch t
tng ng.
(b) Chiu rng tiu chun ca mi ct trong biu cn ph hp vi khong
cch t tng ng xut hin nhiu nht.
(c) Cc t vi khong m phi c ng li. Thng th chiu rng ca nhng
t bng vi chiu rng ca t k tip.
(d) Mi tn s thng c nhn vi (chiu rng t tiu chun chiu rng t
thc t) c c chiu cao ca ct trong biu .
(e) Chiu cao ca ct khng tng ng vi tn s m tng ng vi mt tn
s v v th trc tung cn c gn nhn l mt tn s.
7 Biu a gic tn s c v t mt biu tn s theo cc cch sau:
(a) nh du im gia nh mi ct trong biu tn s.
(b) Ni tt c cc im ny vi nhng on thng.
109

(c) Nn ni cc im cui ca biu (cc tr s gia ca hai u ct) vi
ng c s (trc honh) cc tr s gia ca khong cch t tip theo
bn ngoi dy d liu b che khut. Nn ly kch c nhng khong cch ny
bng vi kch c cc khong cch t gn nht.
8 Mt biu ng cong ch ra s lng phn t tch ly c gi tr nh hn hoc
bng, hay ln hn hoc bng mt gi tr no . Biu ng cong c v
bng ng ni cc tn s tch ly ca khong cch t khc nhau.
9 Trung bnh s hc x =
fx
fx
hay
n
f
10 Mt l s bnh qun ch ra gi tr xut hin thng xuyn nht.

11 Mt c th tnh ton theo cch sau:
(a) Ni mt ng thng t trn nh gc bn tri ca ct c t cha gi tr mt
v nh gc bn tri ca ct tip theo bn phi.
(b) Ni mt ng thng t trn nh gc bn phi ca ct c t cha gi tr mt
v nh gc bn phi ca ct tip theo bn tri.
(c) im m hai ng ny ((a) v (b)) giao nhau chnh l gi tr mt cn tm.
12 Trung v l gi tr ca phn t v tr gia ca mt phn phi, khi tt c cc phn
t c sp xp theo th t ln.
13 Trung v ca mt phn phi tn s phn t c th c tnh ton t mt biu
ng cong. Trung v l im biu din phn t th
(n+1) (th hin trn trc tung)

2
tng ng vi gi tr ca trung v th hin trn trc honh.
110
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 (a)
20X0
20X1
Nghn GBP
20X2
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
3.579
2.961
2.192
857
893
917
62
59
70
4.498
3.913
3.179
Thu nhp
(Nghn GBP)
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
(b)
20X0
Thu nhp
(Nghn GBP)
5.000
4.000
O
O
20X2
Nm
I = Thu nhp t li tc
C = Thu nhp t hoa hng
O = Thu nhp khc
O
3.000
2.000
20X1
C
I
1.000
20X0
20X1
20X2
Nm
(c)
20X0
20X1
20X2
Nghn
GBP
Nghn
GBP
Nghn
GBP
3.579
80
2.961
76
2.192
69
857
19
893
23
917
29
62
59
70
4.498
100
3.913
100
3.179
100
111
%
100
90
80
70
60
50
C
19%
I
80%
40
=1
=1
C
23%
I
76%
C
29%
=2
I = Thu nhp t li tc
C = Thu nhp t hoa hng
O = Thu nhp khc
I
69%
30
20
10
20X0
(d)
20X1
Thu nhp
Nghn GBP
20X2
Nm
Thu nhp t li tc
Thu nhp t hoa hng
Thu nhp khc
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
20X0
20X1
20X2
Nm
2 Chng ta bit phi s dng nhng t no, v th vic u tin l nhn din gi
tr thp nht v cao nht trong d liu. Gi tr thp nht l 25 GBP ( hng u
tin) v gi tr cao nht l 73 GBP ( hng th t). iu ny c ngha l khong
cch t phi ln n 70 GBP v nh hn 75 GBP.
By gi chng ta c th thit lp cc t trong mt ct, v sau m s lng
phn t trong mi t s dng cc du m (tally mark).
Khong cch t (GBP)
Du m
Tng
T 25 n nh hn 30
///
T 30 n nh hn 35
////
T 35 n nh hn 40
//// ////
10
T 40 n nh hn 45
//// //// ////
15
T 45 n nh hn 50
//// //// //// ///
18
T 50 n nh hn 55
//// //// //// ////
20
T 55 n nh hn 60
//// //// ///
13
T 60 n nh hn 65
//// ///
T 65 n nh hn 70
//// /
T 70 n nh hn 75
///
3
Tng
100
112

3 Trc khi v biu tn s, chng ta phi xc nh nhng iu sau:
(a) Chn chiu rng khong cch t chun: 2.000 GBP.
(b) Chiu rng t ca khong m. Trong v d ny, chiu rng t ca khong m
s l 2.000 GBP cho t 10.000 GBP v 4.000 GBP cho t > 22.000 GBP.
Chiu
rng
Khong cch t (GBP)
Tn s iu chnh
Chiu
cao
GBP
10.000
2.000
x 2/2
> 10.000 12.000
2.000
10
x 2/2
10
> 12.000 14.000
2.000
12
x 2/2
12
> 14.000 18.000
4.000
x 2/4
> 18.000 22.000
4.000
x 2/4
> 22.000
4.000
x 2/4
Mt
tn s 12
Biu tn s biu din doanh s

ca tng nhn vin kinh doanh
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
8 10 12 14
18
22
26
Doanh s
Nghn GBP
4
Cn trn ca
khong cch t
Tn s
Tn s tch ly
200
400
12
600
12
24
800
10
34
1.000
40
113

ng cong sn lng
Tn s
tch ly
40
21
30
20
10
0
200
400 600
550
S n v
mi tun
800 1.000
Cc ng nt t ch ra rng s sn phm ln n 550 n v t c tun

21 trong s 40 tun.
5 Mt biu ng cong hng xung.
6 Trung bnh s hc =
Tng gi tr cc phn t
S lng cc phn t
Tng ca 10 phn t u tin = 5 x 10 = 50 kg

Tng ca 10 phn t th hai = 7 x 10 = 70 kg
Tng ca 20 phn t th ba = 20 x X = 20X
Tng ca tt c 40 phn t = 50 + 70 + 20X = 120 + 20X
Trung bnh s hc = 8
120 + 20X
40
8 x 40
= 120 + 20X
320 120 =
20X
10
=
X
7 Tr s gia ca khong di 300 GBP l 275 GBP v tr s gia ca khong
trn 550 GBP l 575 GBP, v tt c cc khong cch t l 10 GBP. y r rng
l mt con s xp x, gy ra s thiu chnh xc; tuy nhin, khng c gi nh thay
th no tt hn. Bi v lng c th thay i cc khong nh l 1 pence (n v
xu trong tin t ca Anh 1 bng = 10 xu), chng gn nh l mt bin lin tc, v
v th gi tr gia cc t l gia hai im u ca chng.
Tr s gia ca t
Tn s
fx
GBP
114
825
275
11
3.575
325
16
6.000
375
15
6.375
425
10
4.750
475
4.200
525
3.450
575
69
29.175
Trung bnh s hc =
29.175 GBP
69
= 422,83 GBP
8 Thi gian c th sp xp nh sau:

11
15
17
17
17
18
20
20
21
21
23
24
24
24
27
29
30
37
Trung v = 21 pht (Chng ta c th tm s trung bnh ca phn t th 9 v th

10 nu mun).
115
GHI CH CUI CHNG
116
Chng
03
phn tn v lch
Khong
(The range)
lch trung bnh

v lch chun
(The mean and
standard deviation)
phn tn
v lch
(Dispersion and
skewness)
H s bin thin
(The coefficient
of variation)
Kim sot qu trnh

bng thng k
(Statistical process
control)
lch
(Skewness)
Gii thiu
Nh chng ta thy, phn phi tn s minh ha cch phn tn cc gi tr trong tp
d liu tng th trn th. s dng cc phn phi tn s, chng ta cn nhiu
thng tin hn ch khng phi ch da vo hnh dng ca th phn phi. Trong
chng trc, chng ta tho lun v trung tm phn phi, hay cn gi l xu hng
hng tm (central tendency). Chng ta cng tm hiu chi tit v cc s bnh qun:
trung bnh s hc, trung v v mt.
S bnh qun khng phi l s tng hp y cho mt phn phi tn s. Chng ta
cng cn bit v phn tn ca d liu, tc l cc gi tr c phn tn nh th no
xung quanh gi tr trung bnh (v d, d liu tp trung xung quanh gi tr trung bnh hay
phn tn xa nhau). Cc i lng o phn tn bao gm khong, lch trung bnh,
phng sai, lch chun v h s bin thin.
Mc tiu bi hc
Hiu c khi nim phn tn.
Phn bit v tnh ton cc s o phn tn (khong, khong t phn v, na
khong t phn v, lch chun v phng sai).
Hiu khi nim i xng v th no l mt phn phi lch.
Hiu khi nim kim sot qu trnh bng thng k.
117
1 KHONG
Khong
(The range)
lch trung bnh

v lch chun
(The mean and
standard deviation)
phn tn
v lch
(Dispersion and
skewness)
H s bin thin
(The coefficient
of variation)
Kim sot qu trnh

bng thng k
control)
lch
(Skewness)
1.1 Khong ca mt tp hp s
NH NGHA
Khong (range) l chnh lch gia quan st ln nht v quan st nh nht.
Khong l s o n gin nht ca mt phn phi v ch chiu di ca phn phi
. Khong c xc nh bng cch tm chnh lch gia quan st ln nht v quan
st nh nht trong mt phn phi.
D liu khng phn t (Ungrouped data)
Khong ca d liu khng phn t = cc tr ln nht - cc tr nh nht. Khong c th
c biu din bng mt khong cch, chng hn 4 - 10 trong 4 l gi tr nh nht
v 10 l gi tr ln nht. Khong ca d liu thng c biu din theo rng ca
n, v d khong d liu 4 -10 l 6.
e.g.
V D
Gi s im kim tra ca cc sinh vin l:
24, 27, 36, 48, 52, 52, 53, 53, 59, 60, 85, 90, 95
Gi tr nh nht = 24 v gi tr ln nht = 95
V vy khong = 95 24 = 71
Khong l 71 (im).
D liu phn t (Grouped data)
Khong ca d liu phn t = Bin trn t ln nht bin di t nh nht.
118
KHONG
Chng 3: phn tn v lch
e.g.
V D
BIN CA T
Tp hp d liu v s dm ng i c ca 120 nhn vin kinh doanh ghi li trong

mt tun nh sau:
403
407
407
408
410
412
413
413
423
424
424
425
426
428
430
430
435
435
436
436
436
438
438
438
444
444
445
446
447
447
447
448
452
453
453
453
454
455
455
456
462
462
462
463
464
465
466
468
474
474
475
476
477
478
479
481
490
493
494
495
497
498
498
500
415
430
439
449
457
468
482
502
416
431
440
450
457
469
482
502
418
432
440
450
458
470
483
505
419
432
441
451
459
471
485
508
420
433
442
451
459
471
486
509
421
433
442
451
460
472
488
511
421
434
443
452
460
473
489
515
Nhm cc d liu ta c bng sau:

S dm
400 - 419
Tn s
12
420 - 439
27
440 - 459
34
460 - 479
24
480 - 499
15
500 - 519
8
120
Bin trn t ln nht = 509,5 bin di t nh nht = 409,5

V vy khong = 509,5 409,5 = 100 dm
Nhiu thng tin b b qua khi tnh ton khong, v ch c gi tr d liu ln nht v nh
nht c xem xt. Gi tr khong ca mt tp d liu c th b nh hng nhiu bi
s c mt ca ch mt gi tr cc ln hoc cc nh (gi tr ngoi l - outlier).
im bt li khi s dng khong l s o ny khng o lng c s phn tn ca
a s cc gi tr trong tp d liu, m n ch o lng c s phn tn ca gi tr
ln nht v nh nht. V vy, cn c cc phng php khc cho chng ta thy
mt bc tranh hon chnh hn v s phn tn d liu. Khi , khong l mt cng
c thng tin h tr cc thc o khc nh lch chun hoc khong t phn v,
nhng khong t khi c s dng nh phng php o phn tn duy nht.
Cc c im chnh ca khong vi chc nng l mt i lng o phn tn:

(a) D tnh v d hiu.
(b) D b nh hng bi mt hoc hai cc tr.
(c) Khng biu th s phn tn ca cc gi tr nm gia hai cc tr.
(d) Khng ph hp cho phn tch thng k chuyn su.
119
BI TP THC HNH 1
(10 PHT)
Tnh gi tr trung bnh v khong ca mi tp d liu sau:

(a) x1 =
(b) x2 =
10
11
11
16
24
Kt qu tnh ton ca bn cho thy iu g v phn tn ca tp d liu?
1.2 Bch phn v v t phn v

S o biu th v tr xc nh theo cc mc phn trm c gi l bch phn v
(percentile) ca tp d liu.
NH NGHA
Gi s mt tp d liu c sp xp theo th t tng dn (hoc gim dn). Bch phn v th p
(pth percentile) l mt gi tr sao cho di gi tr c p% tng s quan st v trn gi tr c
(100-p)% tng s quan st ca tp d liu.
Chng ta xc nh trung v l bch phn v th 50. T , chng ta c th tnh c
cc thng k khc s dng khi nim bch phn v.
Thp phn v
Tng t, mt tng th c th c phn thnh 10 t c s lng tng ng; lc
ny, gi tr ti mi im chia c gi l mt thp phn v (decile).
T phn v
Cc t phn v (quartile) l mt cch xc nh khong m hu ht cc gi tr trong
tp d liu xut hin. T phn v di l gi tr m di gi tr c 25% tng s quan
st; t phn v trn l gi tr m trn gi tr c 25% tng s quan st. Nu c 11
phn t d liu th t phn v di s l phn t th 3 v t phn v trn s l phn t
th 9. Khong gia t phn v di v t phn v trn s cha 50% tng s quan st.
Ba t phn v: phn v th 25 (Q1), trung v (Q2) v phn v th 75 (Q3) thng c
s dng m t mt tp d liu, v chng chia tp d liu thnh bn t, mi t chim
mt phn t (25%) tng s quan st. Chng cng chia phn phi tn s tng i cho
tp d liu thnh bn phn c din tch bng nhau (mi phn c din tch l 0,25).
120
Din tch = 0,25
Din tch = 0,25

Q1
Din tch = 0,25
Q2
Din tch = 0,25

Q3
Hnh 3.1: Khong t phn v

Phn th nht bao gm cc gi tr nm trong khong t phn v th 1 n 25, phn
th hai bao gm cc gi tr nm trong khong t phn v th 26 n 50, phn th ba
bao gm cc gi tr nm trong khong t phn v th 51 n 75 v phn th t bao
gm cc gi tr nm trong khong t phn v th 76 n 100.
e.g.
V D
KHONG T PHN V
Xem xt im bi kim tra ca 19 sinh vin c sp xp theo th t tng dn.

20, 27, 29, 33, 37, 40, 42, 48, 50, 53, 55, 62, 81, 83, 88, 90, 91, 95, 100
tm Q1: n = 19 nn Q1 l (n+1)/4 = 20/4 = quan st th 5 = 37 im.
Q2 l (n+1)/2 = 20/2 = quan st th 10 (trung v) = 53 im.
Q3 l 3(n+1)/4 = 60/4 = quan st th 15 = 88 im.
Ch l Q1 v Q3 i xng qua trung v. Trong bt k phn phi i xng tuyt i no
(phn phi chun), th Trung v Q1 = Q3 Trung v.
BI TP THC HNH 2
(10 PHT)
Hy tnh trung v, t phn v trn v t phn v di ca cc d liu di y:

6, 47, 49, 15, 43, 41, 7, 39, 43, 41, 36
Phn v
Cc t phn v, thp phn v, bch phn v v bt k cc im chia tng t no khc
dng phn tch mt phn phi tn s c gi chung l cc phn v (quantile).
Ngi ta s dng phn v phn tch phn tn ca gi tr d liu. C th d dng
tm thy tt c cc im phn v t biu ng cong.
121

T phn v ca mt phn phi phn t
Khi d liu c phn t th cc im t phn v thng khng c xc nh mt
cch chnh xc; chng ch c th c c tnh nh cch c tnh trung v, s dng
php ni suy hoc biu ng cong.
e.g.
V D
KHONG
Gi lm thm trong mt qu ca 60 nhn vin thuc Cng ty TNHH ABC c trnh

by bn di. Cng ty quyt nh thng 100 GBP cho 10% s nhn vin lm
thm gi nhiu nht, 25 GBP cho 20% s nhn vin lm thm gi t nht v 50 GBP
cho tt c cc nhn vin khc.
Gi
Ln hn
Khng ln hn
Tn s
10
10
20
20
30
11
30
40
15
40
50
12
50
60
60
70
6
60
Yu cu
Tnh khong gi lm thm ca cc nhn vin nhn tin thng l 50 GBP.
BI GII
Gi
Tn s tch ly
> 0 10
> 10 20
> 20 30
20
> 30 40
35
> 40 50
47
> 50 60
54
> 60 70
60
Thp phn v th 9 l: 60 (10% ca 60) = 54

Thp phn v th 2 l: 20% ca 60 = 12
122

Tn s
tch ly 60
x
x
50
40
x
30
20
10
x
x
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Thp phn
v th 2
70 Gi
Thp phn
v th 9
T biu ng cong suy ra khong gi xp x t 23 n 60.
e.g.
V D
T PHN V V BNG TN S TCH LY
tm cc im t phn v ca phn phi chiu cao, chng ta xem bng tn s tch

ly sau:
Chiu cao (cm)
S lng tr em
S lng tr em tch ly
< 58
58 < 60
60 < 62
14
21
62 < 64
60
81
64 < 66
187
268
66 < 68
304
572
68 < 70
263
835
70 < 72
121
956
72 < 74
36
992
74 < 76
999
76
1.000
Ta thy Q1 nm trong khong 64-66cm, c 250 gi tr di Q1. V vy, chng ta cn i

169/187 dc theo khong cch t 2cm n Q1.
Q1 = 64 + 2 x (250 81)/187 = 65,81 cm
Q2 nm trong khong 66-68 cm v c 500 gi tr di Q2.
Q2 = 66 + 2 x (500 268)/304 = 67,53 cm
Tng t
Q3 = 68 + ((750 572)/263) 2 = 69,35 cm
123
1.3 Khong t phn v

NH NGHA
Khong t phn v (inter-quartile range) l chnh lch gia cc gi tr ca t phn v trn v t
phn v di; v vy n biu th khong cc gi tr ca na gia ca tng th, c th l t phn v trn
(Q3) t phn v di (Q1).
Nu ch ch vo hai cc tr (nh trong trng hp khong) th chng ta khng hiu
g v s phn tn d liu trong khong (gia hai cc tr). Nu tm thi b qua hai gi
tr ny v tp trung vo khong gii hn cn li, chng ta s bit nhiu thng tin hn.
Khi nim khong t phn v c pht trin v l do ny. Khong ch bao gm 50%
cc quan st gia ca phn phi Q3 Q1 nn khong t phn v khng cha u
di v u trn ca cc quan st (nhng ni c th xut hin cc gi tr ngoi l).
V d, nu cc t phn v trn v t phn v di ca mt phn phi tn s l 6 v 11
th khong t phn v s l 11 6 = 5. N cho thy khong cc gi tr ca na gia
ca tng th l 5 n v.
Chia hiu (Q3 Q1) cho 2, chng ta c na khong t phn v (semi-inter-quartile range).
BI TP THC HNH 3
(10 PHT)
Tm cc gi tr ca t phn v trn v t phn v di ca phn phi tn s trong v

d di y.
T
Tn s
Tn s tch ly
340 < 370
17
17
370 < 400
26
400 < 430
35
430 < 460
38
460 < 490
40
GBP
40
Tn s 40
tch ly
35
30
x
25
20
x
15
10
5
0
124
x
340
370
400
430
460
490 GBP
2 LCH TRUNG BNH V LCH CHUN

Khong
(The range)
lch trung bnh

v lch chun
(The mean and
standard deviation)
phn tn
v lch
(Dispersion and
skewness)
H s bin thin
(The coefficient
of variation)
Kim sot qu trnh

bng thng k
control)
lch
(Skewness)
2.1 lch trung bnh

V ch s dng khong gia 50% ca tng th, nn khong t phn v s l mt s
o phn tn hu ch, trong trng hp c cc gi tr ngoi l trong phn phi. Nu
khng c gi tr ngoi l no c th bp mo s o phn tn, th s khng hp l
khi loi tr 50% d liu. V th, lch trung bnh v lch chun thng l cc i
lng hu ch hn.
NH NGHA
lch trung bnh (mean deviation) l gi tr trung bnh ca phn chnh lch gia cc gi tr trong
mt phn phi vi trung bnh s hc.
V d sau xem xt s ph hp ca mt s loi giy bo v s dng trong mi trng
lm vic c dung mi. Bng di trnh by tui th (tnh theo gi) ca su i giy
thuc cc loi khc nhau - A, B, C v D.
Tui th giy tnh theo gi
Giy loi A
Giy loi B
Giy loi C
Giy loi D
50
60
60
90
50
50
60
70
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
40
20
50
40
40
20
125

Mi loi giy u c gi tr trung bnh (v tui th) l 50 gi. Tuy nhin phn tn
ca giy loi D ln hn nhiu so vi cc loi giy khc. Chng ta cn xc nh cch
phn tn ca cc gi tr, tnh t gi tr trung tm. Cch xc nh s phn tn n gin
nht l o cc khong gi tr.
Khong gi tr ca giy loi D l 70 gi. C giy loi B v C u c khong gi tr l 20
gi, cc gi tr o tui th ca giy loi C phn tn xung quanh gi tr trung bnh ln hn.
tnh lch trung bnh, chng ta phi tm lch hoc khong cch gia mi gi
tr ca d liu quan st v gi tr trung bnh ca tp d liu .
Tuy nhin, v c c lch dng v lch m so vi gi tr trung bnh nn vic
cng cc lch t gi tr trung bnh s lm cho cc kt qu trit tiu ln nhau. C mt
cch loi b nh hng ny l ch xt cc gi tr tuyt i (b qua du ca lch).
Cng thc tnh lch trung bnh trong trng hp d liu khng phn t nh sau:
(x x)
lch trung bnh (d liu khng phn t) =
n
(x x) l chnh lch gia mi gi tr (x) trong phn phi v gi tr trung bnh ca
phn phi.
Hai ng thng ng quanh x l du gi tr tuyt i, c ngha l tt c cc chnh
lch c ly gi tr dng.
lch trung bnh c tnh bng cch cng lch so vi gi tr trung bnh, ri chia
cho s quan st.
Quay li v d trn, s dng cc gi tr tnh ton cho giy loi C, chng ta s tnh c
lch trung bnh nh sau:
Giy loi C
(x x)
60
60 50 =
10
60
60 50 =
10
50
50 50 =
50
50 50 =
40
40 50 =
10
40
40 50 =
10
Tng
40
lch trung bnh =

(x x)
n
= 40/6 = 6,67
By gi chng ta c th khng nh rng khong cch trung bnh ca tt c cc gi tr

so vi gi tr trung bnh ca giy loi C l 6,67 gi.
Khi tnh lch trung bnh ca mt phn phi tn s, chng ta s dng cng thc:
f(x x)
lch trung bnh (d liu phn t) =
n
126

(a) Khi tnh lch trung bnh cho d liu phn t, cc lch phi c tnh t
im gia ca mi t: tc l, x l im gia ca khong cch t.
(b) f(x x) l gi tr trong phn (a) trn nhn vi tn s ca t.
(c) f(x x) l tng cc kt qu c tnh ton trong phn (b).
(d) n (tng ng f) l s phn t trong phn phi.
e.g.
V D
LCH TRUNG BNH
Tnh lch trung bnh s dng phn phi tn s gi lm thm trong mt qu ca 60

nhn vin Cng ty TNHH ABC.
Gi
Ln hn
Khng ln hn
Tn s
10
10
20
20
30
11
30
40
15
40
50
12
50
60
60
70
6
60
BI GII
im gia
x=
fx
(x x)
f(x x)
15
32
96
15
90
22
132
25
11
275
12
132
35
15
525
30
45
12
540
96
55
385
18
126
65
390
28
168
f = 60
fx = 2.220
fx
f
2.220
60
780
= 37
lch trung bnh =
780
= 13 gi
60
Do , gi tr trung bnh l 37 gi v lch trung bnh l 13 gi.
Chng ta s s dng li v d ny khi bn n ch ny.
127
BI TP THC HNH 4
Tnh lch trung bnh ca phn phi tn s sau:
Gi tr
Tn s xut hin
15
25
35
20
45
55
6
50
S hu ch ca lch trung bnh

lch trung bnh l mt s o phn tn, cho bit nu tnh trung bnh th gi tr mi
phn t trong phn phi chnh lch bao nhiu so vi trung bnh s hc ca phn phi.
Khng ging cc t phn v, lch trung bnh s dng tt c cc gi tr trong phn
phi tnh phn tn, nhng khng b nh hng nhiu bi mt vi cc tr (gi tr
ngoi l) do chng ta ly gi tr trung bnh ca cc lch.
Tuy nhin, lch trung bnh khng thch hp phn tch thng k chuyn su.
2.2 Phn tch phng sai

Phn tch phng sai (analysis of variance) c gii thch r nht bng v d
minh ha.
Phng sai l mt tham s thng k, biu th mc mt tp hp gi tr chnh lch
so vi mt gi tr n nht no . V d, phng sai s cho bit liu cn nng ca
1.000 nam gii tp trung gn nhau xung quanh mt gi tr n nht, 120 kg chng
hn, hay chng c phn tn rng, v d t 60 n 180 kg.
Gi s chng ta c d liu cn nng cho 1.000 nam gii ngi Anh v 1.000 nam gii
ngi M. C th tnh phng sai gp cho tp bao gm tt c nam gii, nhng c
nhiu thng tin hn chng ta nn tch vic tnh phng sai thnh hai phn: phng
sai chung cho tp hp nam gii ca hai quc gia v phng sai trong mi t quc gia
(phng sai gp cc mu v phng sai cho mi mu). Sau chng ta c th xc
nh cn nng ca nam gii ngi Anh hoc ngi M s c bin ng ln hn.
Phn tch phng sai s a ra p n cho dng cu hi ny. Tng t, chng ta c
th xc nh c mc sai lch v mu sc ca mt sn phm do cc yu t nh
s thay i nhit , s khng ng u v thi gian x l v cc mi quan h tng
tc gia nhng yu t ny.
128
2.3 Phng sai v lch chun

NH NGHA
Phng sai (variance) l gi tr trung bnh ca bnh phng lch gia mi gi tr trong phn phi
vi gi tr trung bnh.
lch chun (standard deviation) l cn bc hai ca phng sai.
Thay v ly gi tr tuyt i ca chnh lch gia mi gi tr v gi tr trung bnh trnh
tng cc lch bng khng nh lm vi lch trung bnh, chng ta c th bnh
phng cc lch. Nh vy, chng ta s tnh c phng sai v t , tnh c
s o phn tn quan trng nht trong thng k l lch chun. lch chun
c k hiu bng k t Hy Lp (sigma).
lch ca mi gi tr vi gi tr trung bnh
Bnh phng lch
Tng bnh phng lch

xx
(x x)2
(x x)2
(x x)2

n
Trung bnh ca tng bnh phng lch (= phng sai = 2)
n v o ca phng sai l bnh phng ca n v trong d liu gc, v chng ta

bnh phng cc chnh lch. V th chng ta cn khai cn bc hai ly li n
v ca d liu ban u.
(x x)2
Cn bc hai ca phng sai = lch chun =
n
e.g.
V D
LCH CHUN
Tnh lch chun cho mi di sau:

Gi tr: 12, 9, 3, 10, 12, 22, 7, 11, 15 v 19 cm.
Gi tr trung bnh: 120 10 = 12
1
10
Tng
12
10
12
22
11
15
19
120
lch
10
Bnh phng
lch
81
100
25
49
278
Gi tr (cm)
Tng bnh phng lch = 278

Suy ra phng sai = 278 10 = 27,8 cm v lch chun = 27,8 = 5,27 cm
C th p dng quy trnh tng t tnh lch chun ca d liu trong mt phn
phi tn s.
Bnh phng ca lch gia mi gi tr vi gi tr trung bnh (x x)2
Tng bnh phng lch f(x x)2
129
Trung bnh ca tng bnh phng lch (= phng sai)

Cn bc hai = lch chun =
f(x x)2
f
f(x x)2
f
Tnh ton cc cng thc trn c th mt nhiu thi gian. Mt cng thc khc tnh
lch chun l:
lch chun =
fx2
x2
f
Ch l cc cng thc ny s thch hp, nu bit tt c thng tin v cc phn t
trong tng th.
e.g.
V D
PHNG SAI V LCH CHUN
Tnh phng sai v lch chun ca phn phi tn s trong v d Phn 2.1 lin quan
n gi lm thm ca nhn vin Cng ty TNHH ABC.
BI GII
S dng cng thc th hai tnh lch chun. Cch tnh nh sau:
im gia
x
x2
25
75
15
225
1.350
25
11
625
6.875
35
15
1.225
18.375
45
12
2.025
24.300
55
3.025
21.175
65
4.225
25.350
60
fx2
97.500
Gi tr trung bnh (t v d lin quan n Cng ty TNHH ABC) = 37

fx2
97.500
Phng sai =
x2 = (37)2 = 256 gi
f
60
lch chun = 256 = 16 gi
BI TP THC HNH 5
(10 PHT)
Tnh phng sai v lch chun ca phn phi tn s trong Bi tp thc hnh 4.
130

Cc c im chnh ca lch chun
Sigma () l k hiu ton hc ca lch chun. Nh chng ta thy, lch chun
cho bit phn tn hay mc bin thin ca cc gi tr trong tp d liu. ngha
ca lch chun d nhn thy nht, khi tng th c phn phi chun th th phn
phi l mt ng cong hnh chung. Hin nhin trong bt k phn phi chun no
th 50% tng th s c gi tr ln hn gi tr trung bnh; 50% s c gi tr nh hn
gi tr trung bnh. lch chun cho chng ta bit nhiu thng tin hn: nhn nh
rng 68,26% tng th (ni ly mu) nm trong khong 1 tnh t gi tr trung bnh;
95,44% trong khong 2 v 99,73% nm trong khong 3 tnh t gi tr trung bnh.
0,1%
0,1%
2,1%
-3
13,6%
-2
34,1%
-1
34,1%
M, = 0
13,6%
+1
2,1%
+2
+3
Hnh 3.2: ng cong lch chun

Cc c im chnh ca lch chun l:
(a) lch chun c tnh da trn tt c cc gi tr trong phn phi, v vy n
phn nh ton din hn cc s o phn tn khc da trn phn v, nh
khong t phn v.
(b) Ph hp vi phn tch thng k chuyn su.
(c) Kh hiu hn mt s i lng o phn tn khc.
Tm quan trng ca lch tiu chun nm s ph hp ca n i vi phn tch
thng k chuyn su.
3 H S BIN THIN
Khong
(The range)
lch trung bnh

v lch chun
(The mean and
standard deviation)
phn tn
v lch
(Dispersion and
skewness)
H s bin thin
(The coefficient
of variation)
Kim sot qu trnh

bng thng k
control)
lch
(Skewness)
131
3.1 So snh phn tn trong cc phn phi

NH NGHA
H s bin thin (coefficient of variation) so snh phn tn ca hai phn phi.
H s bin thin cho bit lch chun ln hn bao nhiu ln so vi gi tr trung bnh.
i khi chng ta cn so snh phn tn ca hai phn phi. Vic so snh c th thc
hin nh s dng h s bin thin.
H s bin thin =
lch chun
Gi tr trung bnh
H s bin thin cn c gi l h s phn tn tng i (coefficient of relative

dispersion).
H s bin thin cng ln, phn tn cng rng. V d, gi s hai tp d liu A v
B c cc lch trung bnh v lch chun nh sau:
lch trung bnh

lch chun
H s bin thin
120
125
50
51
0,417
0,408
Mc d B c lch chun ln hn (51 so vi 50), nhng phn tn tng i ca

n nh hn so vi phn tn tng i ca A v c h s bin thin nh hn.
e.g.
V D
LCH CHUN V H S BIN THIN
Tnh lch chun v h s bin thin cho cc d liu sau.

Gi tr: 10, 12, 16, 8, 25, 30, 14, 11, 13, 11.
BI GII
Gi tr trung bnh = 150 10 = 15
x
xx
(x x)2
10
25
12
16
49
25
10
100
30
15
225
14
11
16
13
11
x = 150
132
16
(x x) = 446
2
lch chun =
(x x)2
= 446/10 = 6,7
n
H s bin thin =
lch chun

= 6,7/15 = 0,45
Gi tr trung bnh
Th hin theo phn trm = 45%
3.2 Bn s dng h s bin thin nh th no?

Nhiu ngi nghin cu th trng c phiu tnh dao ng ca c phiu s dng
lch chun (Standard Deviation - SD). Ghi nhn gi ng ca ca mt loi c
phiu qua mt vi ngy giao dch, SD s bng 0 nu gi c phiu khng bao gi thay
i; SD s c gi tr nh nu gi c phiu bin ng t v c gi tr ln nu gi c phiu
bin ng mnh trong nhng ngy .
Tuy nhin, h s bin thin nh gi dao ng tt hn lch chun.
V d mi nh u t (A v B) c 1.000 GBP vn u t. Gi s nh u t A mua
100 c phiu ang c bn vi gi 10 GBP/c phiu; trong khi ch u t B mua 20
c phiu ang c bn vi gi 50 GBP/c phiu.
Qua 5 ngy, gi c phiu thay i nh sau:
Ngy 1
Ngy 2
Ngy 3
Ngy 4
Ngy 5
Nh u t A
10 GBP
9 GBP
13 GBP
7 GBP
11 GBP
Nh u t B
50 GBP
49 GBP
53 GBP
47 GBP
51 GBP
Gi hai c phiu c xem xt dao ng vi bin tng t nhau. Trong mi trng

hp, SD ca nm gi c phiu u bng 2. Tuy nhin, bin dao ng khng th
hin bc thng trm ca cc nh u t trong khong thi gian nm ngy c
xem xt. Tng gi tr c phiu ca nh u t A dao ng t 700 GBP n 1.300 GBP
trong khi tng gi tr c phiu ca nh u t B dao ng t 940 GBP n 1.060 GBP.
Tnh h s bin thin (Coefficient of Variation - CV) thay v SD chng ta c:
(i) i vi nh u t A, CV = 2/10 = 0,20;
(ii) i vi nh u t B, CV = 2/50 = 0,04. So snh hai CV ny chng ta
thy c phiu ca nh u t A dao ng ln hn nm ln so vi c
phiu ca nh u t B.
V d ny cho thy h s bin thin c th hu ch khi nh gi phn tn ca mt
tp hp s. Nh chng minh bng s bin ng ca hai c phiu gi nh, SD
khng xt n ln ca gi tr trung bnh khi nh gi s bin thin. SD cho bit cc
s xut hin nh th no xung quanh gi tr trung bnh, nhng ln ca gi tr trung
bnh khng c xem xt. Ngc li, h s bin thin xt n s phn tn ca cc
gi tr (xung quanh gi tr trung bnh) nhng c iu chnh cho ph hp vi ln
ca gi tr trung bnh.
133
BI TP THC HNH 6
(5 PHT)
Tnh h s bin thin ca phn phi trong cc Bi tp thc hnh 4 v 5.
4 LCH
Khong
(The range)
lch trung bnh

v lch chun
(The mean and
standard deviation)
phn tn
v lch
(Dispersion and
skewness)
H s bin thin
(The coefficient
of variation)
Kim sot qu trnh

bng thng k
control)
lch
(Skewness)
4.1 S bin thin ca lch chun

V khng ai trong chng ta c th bit r v tng lai, nn vic nh gi chnh xc ri
ro v cc kt qu d tnh lin quan n ri ro l c s ca u t khn ngoan. nh
ngha ri ro mang tnh hc thut c s dng nhiu nht l lch chun - mt s
o nh gi dao ng. Chng ta phi tha nhn rng hai danh mc u t c cng
lch chun c th c phn phi kt qu u t khc nhau. Trong khi mt s danh
mc u t c phn phi chun (ng cong hnh chung ging nhau) th mt s
danh mc u t khc li c ng cong phn phi tn s biu th lch.
NH NGHA
lch (skewness) c trng cho tnh bt i xng ca ng cong phn phi tn s.
Ni cch khc, th kt qu u t khng ging vi phn phi chun (ng cong
hnh chung).
Khi bit cch tnh gi tr trung bnh v phn tn ca phn phi tn s, th bn
cng nn hiu lch l g. Mt phn phi tn s c th i xng hoc lch (bt
i xng).
C th xy ra trng hp hai phn phi c cng lch trung bnh v lch chun.
V d, hy xem s bn di:
134

(a)
(b)
60
80
60
40
30
30
35
30
20
10
0
10
5
10
15
20
25
10
30
10
15
20
25
30
Hnh 3.3: (a) Phn phi i xng; (b) Phn phi lch
Mc d hai phn phi c cng lch trung bnh v lch chun, nhng chng
khng ging nhau. Chng khc nhau tnh i xng. Phn phi bn tri i xng
trong khi phn phi bn phi l bt i xng hay lch.
4.2 Tnh i xng

Phn phi tn s i xng l phn phi c th chia thnh hai phn l nh ca nhau
qua php i xng trc. Trong phn phi tn s i xng, tt c cc gi tr trung bnh
s hc, trung v v mt u bng nhau (bng M).
Tn s
Hnh 3.4: Phn phi tn s i xng

th phn phi lch dng (lch phi) s ta v pha bn tri vi mt ui ko di
sang bn phi. Trong trng hp ny, gi tr trung bnh, trung v v mt s khc nhau.
Trong mt phn phi lch dng, mt s nh hn trung v v gi tr trung bnh s ln
hn trung v. Thc t, gi tr trung bnh trong trng hp ny ln hn phn ln cc
gi tr khc trong phn phi.
Gi tr trung bnh
Mt
Trung v
Tn s
Hnh 3.5: th phn phi lch dng

135

th phn phi lch m (lch tri) s ta v pha bn phi vi mt ui ko di sang
bn tri. Trong trng hp ny, gi tr trung bnh, trung v v mt cng s khc nhau.
Trong mt phn phi lch m, mt s ln hn trung v v gi tr trung bnh s nh hn
trung v. Gi tr trung bnh trong trng hp ny nh hn phn ln cc gi tr khc
trong phn phi.
Gi tr trung bnh
Trung v
Mt
Tn s
Hnh 3.6: th phn phi lch m

Trong cc phn phi c lch ln, gi tr trung bnh c th khng mang tnh i din
cho phn ln cc gi tr trong phn phi v n b nh hng bi cc gi tr cc tr.
Cc nghin cu ti chnh v hnh vi ch ra rng ni chung cc nh u t thch cc
ti sn c lch dng. iu ny c chng minh qua vic h sn sng chp nhn
cc kt qu d tnh thp hoc thm ch m khi mt ti sn biu th lch dng. Mt
v d in hnh l v s, trong c hi trng gii cc k thp, him khi xy ra nhng
phn thng trng gii li cc k cao. Cc ch u t thng trnh cc ti sn c
lch m. Cc loi ti sn ri ro cao nh tri phiu li cao - junk bond (song ri ro cng
tng ln v cng ty pht hnh c kh nng v n) hoc chng khon cc th trng
mi ni, thng biu th lch m, iu ny cng ging nh khi thc hin mt s
cng c u t (investment vehicle) nh cc qu u c (hedge fund).
5 KIM SOT QU TRNH BNG THNG K
136
Khong
(The range)
lch trung bnh

v lch chun
(The mean and
standard deviation)
phn tn
v lch
(Dispersion and
skewness)
H s bin thin
(The coefficient
of variation)
Kim sot qu trnh

bng thng k
control)
lch
(Skewness)
5.1 Kim sot

Kim sot lin quan ti cc hot ng trong ni b mt t chc, qua cc nguyn
nhn gy nn lch so vi cc tiu chun c quy nh trong chnh sch, k hoch
v chin lc s c xc nh v c phng n khc phc.
Cc giai on chnh ca qu trnh kim sot bao gm:
(a) Xc nh v thng nht mc tiu.
(b) Bin mc tiu thnh k hoch v tiu chun hot ng.
(c) Thng bo k hoch v tiu chun vi nhng ngi lin quan thc hin.
(d) nh gi kt qu thc t so vi tiu chun thng nht.
(e) Xc nh nguyn nhn gy ra lch.
(f) Thc hin hnh ng iu chnh hp l.
S bt n lun c xung quanh chng ta v nh hng n tt c nhng vic chng
ta lm. Khng th d on chnh xc 100% nhng g s xy ra trong tng lai. Vai tr
ca cc phng php thng k l a tnh trng hn n ny vo trt t mt mc
no , c bit khi p dng vo vic kim sot qu trnh.
5.2 Kim sot qu trnh bng thng k

Kim sot qu trnh bng thng k (Statistical Process Control - SPC) l s kim sot
lin tc v lp biu cho qu trnh hot ng, cnh bo khi no th qu trnh ang
dch chuyn ra khi cc gii hn c xc nh trc. Tc l, chng ta c th nh
gi mt cch tin cy v hiu qu ca bt k qu trnh no, gim st n bng cc ch
tiu v cng c thng k, ng thi thc hin cc bc cn thit kim sot qu
trnh tt hn. Thng thng, cc gii hn kim sot trn v gii hn kim sot di
s lch ba ln lch chun, so vi gi tr trung bnh. Tt c cc im ngoi gii hn
kim sot phi c kim tra v iu chnh.
SPC c th c p dng trong nhiu tnh hung, di y l mt s v d:
(a) SPC c th c s dng x l d liu nhm ti u ha hiu qu ca
trang thit b (optimise plant performance). dng n gin nht, SPC
kim tra lch chun ca cc bin iu khin c nm trong gii hn cho
php ca k hoch v tm cch ti thiu ha lch chun trang thit b
t hiu qu cao hn.
(b) SPC l mt kha cnh ca Kim sot Cht lng Ton din (Total Quality
Management -TQM), l cch qun l doanh nghip nhm m bo s hi
lng ca khch hng ni b v bn ngoi doanh nghip. Chng ta bit rng
khng th t c s hon ho trong sn phm, do cc bin thin lin quan
ti cht lng nguyn vt liu th, k nng vn hnh, my mc thit b, hao
mn v h hng, v.v nhng kim sot cht lng c gng nh gi v d
on c cc bin thin ny trong bt k hot ng no. Qu trnh sn xut
phi c tin hnh trong gii hn cc bin thin d kin; nu bin thin thc
t qu ln th phi tin hnh bin php iu chnh, a n v gii hn c
th chp nhn c.
(c) SPC c th c s dng kim sot hng tn kho (control buffer
stock). qu trnh sn xut khng b gin on, doanh nghip thng
phi d tr nguyn vt liu, phng trng hp cc vn xy ra vi nh
cung ng hoc kh khn v dng tin cn tr vic mua hng ha mi. Hng
tn kho hay hng ha d tr l s bo m cho cc vn xy ra ngoi d
kin. Tuy nhin, vic tch tr qu nhiu li lm gim ngun lc ti chnh ca
cng ty cho cc mc ch khc, ng thi tng ch ph lin quan ti vic bo
137

qun v kim sot hng tn kho. Vic s dng cc k thut qun l t mua
nguyn vt liu ng thi gian s lm gim nhu cu hng tn kho v tng
hiu qu hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh.
(d) SPC c th bao gm vic s dng cc biu kim sot (use of control
charts) ghi chp v kim sot chnh xc v kch thc vt l ca sn
phm. Cc mu i din ca mt qu trnh sn xut sn phm c th c
ly hng ngy hoc thm ch l hng gi; li c pht hin s c loi b
hay hn ch mt cch n gin thng qua vic hiu chnh my mc v thit
b. Nu sn phm li vt qu gii hn cho php th phi c hnh ng kim
sot khn cp hn, v iu ny cho thy c s khng ph hp trong phng
php sn xut hoc khng m bo v cht lng ca nguyn vt liu th v
cc thnh phn lin quan. Tnh hung ny cng c th xy ra khi xc lp cc
tiu chun qu kht khe, vt xa iu kin thc t.
(e) Biu kim sot cng c s dng kim tra nguyn vt liu th
(inspection of raw materials) nhn t nh cung cp, xc nhn rng nh
cung cp ang cung cp nguyn vt liu ph hp vi cc tiu chun quy nh
trong hp ng cung ng.
5.3 Phn tch SPC

C th tin hnh phn tch SPC i vi d liu c thu thp thng xuyn v phn
thnh cc t nh xc nh trc, ty thuc vo c trng ca cng vic c th. Phn
tch ny s dng gi tr trung bnh v khong ca t, hoc lch trung bnh v
lch chun m t c im cc t nh.
Sau , cc gi tr ny c th c biu th trn biu kim sot, s dng cc gi
tr cnh bo cho vic ngn nga sm. Phn tch da trn cc d liu c phn phi
chun vi th l mt ng cong hnh chung v c th c s dng d on
cc xu hng i chch iu kin kim sot.
Trong qu trnh x l, d liu thu c bng th cng hay t ng, c th c biu th
trn th a ra mt hnh nh trc quan v hiu qu ca mt qu trnh. Cc thng
s quan trng hoc s c trng s c tnh ton. Bn di minh ha mt biu
kim sot in hnh. Trc honh l thi gian hoc khi lng sn phm tch ly. Trc
tung l mt s c trng quan trng ca thnh phn, v d chiu di hoc ng knh.
+3SD Gii hn hnh ng
Phm vi
+2SD Gii hn cnh bo
Gi tr k vng
-2SD Gii hn cnh bo
Thi gian
-3SD Gii hn hnh ng
Gi tr mc tiu ca cc s c trng o c th hin quanh mt ng ngang. y

l gi tr k vng (expected value). Cc phn tch u ra trc ch ra mc bin
thin ngu nhin c d on cho qu trnh ang c theo di. T , chng ta
c th tnh lch chun ca qu trnh. C th v thm cc ng ngang trn biu
cc v tr i din cho hai v ba ln lch chun, tnh t ng mc tiu. Cc
138

gi tr ny c c t phn tch qu trnh v l cc gii hn kim sot. D on 67%
gi tr s nm trong khong 2 lch chun v nm trong phn gii hn bi cc
ng cnh bo. 99,75% gi tr s nm trong khong 3 lch chun v nm trong
cc gii hn hnh ng. Mt biu kim sot s cho thy cc gii hn trong phm
vi u ra c k vng.
Trong sn xut thc t th gi tr ca cc s c trng chn s c biu th.
Cc gi tr ny s cho thy cc bin thin ngu nhin, bin thin dn dn v bt k
lch no. Mt s u ra c th s vt khi gii hn kim sot (hai ln lch
chun). Cc gii hn ny c gi l gii hn cnh bo (warning limit). Mt lng
nht nh u ra vt khi gii hn ny khng phi l vn , v y l iu c th
d on; nhng nu c nhiu u ra lin tip vt khi gii hn, th s c vn cn
gii quyt. Hu nh khng c u ra no vt khi ba ln gii hn lch chun.
Nhng gii hn ny c gi l gii hn hnh ng (action limit). Nu u ra nm
ngoi cc gii hn ny th c ngha l qu trnh nm ngoi tm kim sot v phi
c hnh ng iu chnh.
D thit b c tt n u hay k nng vn hnh c thnh thc nh th no, th sn
phm c to ra t mt qu trnh s khng bao gi ging ht nhau (mc d cc
cng c o lng s khng hon ho cho thy chng khng h khc nhau). S c
s bin thin nh t sn phm ny sang sn phm khc. Nguyn nhn bin thin
c th thuc nhm nguyn nhn khng ngu nhin (assignable cause), v d li
my mc hoc s khng ng u trong nguyn vt liu, l cc nguyn nhn c th
xc nh v loi b hoc thuc nhm nguyn nhn ngu nhin (chance cause), tc
nhng l do khng th bit hoc khng th loi b. Khi ch c cc nguyn nhn ngu
nhin, th qu trnh c coi l c kim sot. Trong mt qu trnh cc iu kin
trung bnh, d liu c ghi chp s khc nhau mt mc th hin bng lch
chun o s bin thin v phn d, gy nn bi s bin thin vn c ca qu trnh.
Mt quy tc thc nghim c s dng nh gi xem qu trnh c hot ng bnh
thng hay ngoi tm kim sot. Nu:
(a) 8 gi tr lin k nhau nm cng mt pha so vi gi tr trung bnh.
(b) 4 trong 5 gi tr lch trn 1 ln lch chun.
(c) 2 trong 3 gi tr lch trn 2 ln lch chun.
(d) 1 gi tr lch trn 3 ln lch chun.
th phi gi nh rng c mt nguyn nhn khng ngu nhin xy ra v iu ny s
c khc phc khi qu trnh c kim sot. Trong trng hp ny cc u ra cho
thy qu trnh nm ngoi tm kim sot.
139
TNG KT CHNG
Chng ny cp n cc s o phn tn.
Cc s o phn tn nh gi mc phn tn ca cc bin s xung quanh

gi tr trung bnh.
Khong l chnh lch gia gi tr ln nht v gi tr nh nht.
Cc im t phn v chia tng th thnh bn t c kch c bng nhau.
Khong t phn v l chnh lch gia im t phn v trn v im t phn

v di.
lch trung bnh l gi tr trung bnh ca lch gia cc gi tr trong mt phn

phi vi gi tr trung bnh.
lch chun l cn bc hai ca phng sai, l s o phn tn quan trng

nht c s dng trong thng k. Phi chc chn rng bn bit cch tnh
lch chun ca mt tp hp d liu.
C th so snh phn tn ca hai phn phi thng qua h s bin thin.
lch l tnh khng i xng ca mt ng cong phn phi tn s.
CU HI N TP
1 Phn v l g?
2 Khi tnh lch trung bnh ca d liu phn t, th nn o lch nh th no?
3 Ti sao li bnh phng chnh lch gia mi gi tr v gi tr trung bnh trong cng
thc ca lch chun?
4 a ra mt cng thc tnh phng sai ca d liu trong phn phi tn s.
5 nh ngha h s bin thin ca mt phn phi.
6 Phn bit gia lch dng v lch m.
P N CU HI N TP
1 Phn v l thut ng chung ch cc im phn chia mt phn phi tn s (v d
t phn v, thp phn v v bch phn v).
2 Cc lch phi c o theo gi tr trung bnh s hc.
3 trnh tng cc chnh lch bng khng.
140
f(x x)2
fx2
x2
hoc
f
f
5 H s bin thin so snh phn tn ca hai phn phi (v c th tnh c bng

cch chia lch chun cho gi tr trung bnh).
6 Mt th phn phi lch dng s ta v bn tri vi ui ko di sang bn phi.
Gi tr trung bnh, gi tr trung v v mt s khc nhau.
(a) Mt s c gi tr thp hn trung v.
(b) Gi tr trung bnh s cao hn trung v.
Mt th phn phi lch m s ta v bn phi vi ui ko di sang bn tri
Gi tr trung bnh, trung v v mt cng s khc nhau.
(a) Mt s c gi tr cao hn trung v.
(b) Gi tr trung bnh s thp hn trung v.
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 (a)
72
=9
8
Cc s c gi tr trung bnh l 9 v khong c rng l 24 3 = 21.
x1 =
(b) x2 =
72
=9
8
Cc s c gi tr trung bnh l 9 v khong c rng l 11 7 = 4.

Tp hp d liu x1 c phn tn rng hn tp hp d liu x2.
2
D liu
6 47 49 15 43 41 7 39 43 41 36
(11 s)
D liu xp theo th t
6 7 15 36 39 41 41 43 43 47 49
Trung v = (11+1)/2 = gi tr th 6
= 41
im t phn v di: (11+1)/4 = = 15

gi tr th 3
im t phn v trn: 3 (11+1)/4 = = 43
gi tr th 9
141

3
Tn s
40
tch ly
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
x
5
15
25
35
45
55
x
340
370
400
430
460
im t phn v trn l im x 40 = gi tr th 30.

im t phn v di l im x 40 = gi tr th 10.
c trn biu ng cong, cc gi tr ny tng ng xp x 358
GBP v 412 GBP.
f
fx
(x x)
f(x x)
4
20
27,2
108,8
6
90
17,2
103,2
8
200
7,2
57,6
20
700
2,8
56,0
6
270
12,8
76,8
6
330
22,8
136,8
50
1.610
539,2
Gi tr trung bnh x = 1.610 = 32,2

50
lch trung bnh = 539,2 =10,784, lm trn 10,8.
50
5
x
5
15
25
35
45
55
f
4
6
8
20
6
6
50
x2
25
225
625
1.225
2.025
3.025
fx2
100
1.350
5.000
24.500
12.150
18.150
61.250
x = 32,2 (t Bi tp thc hnh 4)

Phng sai = 61.250 (32,2)2 = 188,16
50
lch chun = 188,16 = 13,72
6 H s bin thin =
142
490 GBP
lch chun
= 13,72 = 0,426
Gi tr trung bnh 32,2
GHI CH CUI CHNG
143
GHI CH CUI CHNG
144
Chng
04
Tng quan v hi quy
S tng quan
(Correlation)
S tng quan v hi quy

(Correlation and regression)
ng xu th
(Lines of best fit)
Gii thiu
By gi chng ta s nghin cu v phn tch thng k d liu hai bin (doanh s bn
hng qua thi gian, chi ph qung co v doanh thu bn hng, sn lng v chi ph...).
Cc s o lin quan ti hi quy v tng quan trong phn tch hai bin c th c coi
l s m rng cho cc s o v v tr v s phn tn trong phn tch n bin: phng
php hi quy nh v d liu hai bin theo quan h ton hc c th biu din bng mt
ng cong hoc ng thng; phng php tng quan m t bn cht phn tn ca
cc bin trn ng cong hoc ng thng . Mc ch c bn chung ca hi quy
v tng quan l xc nh mc lin quan ca bin ny vi bin khc.
Mc tiu bi hc
Hiu c khi nim s tng quan.
Hiu c s khc nhau gia tng quan mt phn v tng quan ton
phn (perfect correlation - hay cn gi l tng quan hon ton hoc tng
quan hon ho), tng quan dng v tng quan m.
Tnh ton v gii thch ngha ca h s tng quan.
Tnh ton v gii thch ngha ca h s xc nh.
Tnh ton v gii thch ngha ca h s tng quan hng Spearman v bit
thi im s dng h s ny.
Xy dng th phn tn v xc nh ng xu th.
c lng ng xu th trong phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh.
Hiu c ngha ca bnh phng nh nht.
C kh nng gii thch ngha ca cc h s hi quy.
Hiu v nh gi c tin cy ca cc c lng.
145
1 S TNG QUAN
S tng quan
(Correlation)
S tng quan v hi quy

ng xu th
(Lines of best fit)
1.1 Gii thiu

NH NGHA
S tng quan (correlation) c ngha l c mt mi lin h hoc s tng ng
Khi gi tr ca bin ny c lin quan n gi tr ca bin khc th chng c tng quan
vi nhau.
V d v cc bin c th c tng quan vi nhau:
(a) Cn nng v chiu cao ca mt ngi.
(b) Qung ng ca mt hnh trnh v thi gian thc hin hnh trnh .
Mt phng php biu din tng quan gia cc bin c lin quan l s dng th
phn tn (scattergraph) hay biu phn tn (scatter diagram) m mi im trn
th s xc nh mt cp d liu.
V d: th phn tn biu din chi ph bn hng hng thng theo doanh s trong 12
thng c th nh sau:
Chi ph
bn hng (GBP)
Doanh s bn hng
Hnh 4.1: th phn tn

th phn tn ny cho thy c s tng quan gia chi ph bn hng v doanh s:
khi doanh s bn hng tng ln th chi ph bn hng cng c xu hng tng ln.
146
Chng 4: S tng quan v hi quy
1.2 tng quan

Hai bin c th c mt trong cc dng tng quan sau:
(a) Tng quan ton phn (perfectly correlated).
(b) Tng quan mt phn (partly correlated).
(c) Khng tng quan (uncorrelated).
C th minh ha cc tng quan khc nhau ny bng cc th phn tn
khc nhau.
Tng quan ton phn
(a)
(b)
Hnh 4.2: Tng quan ton phn

Tt c cc cp gi tr u nm trn cng mt ng thng. Gia hai bin tn ti mt
quan h tuyn tnh hon ho.
Tng quan mt phn
(a)
(b)
Hnh 4.3: Tng quan mt phn

th (a), mc d khng c mi quan h tuyn tnh hon ho gia cc bin X v Y,
nhng gi tr nh ca bin X c xu hng c kt hp vi gi tr nh ca bin Y v
gi tr ln ca bin X c xu hng kt hp vi gi tr ln ca bin Y.
th (b), bin X v Y cng khng c mi quan h tuyn tnh hon ho, nhng gi
tr nh ca bin X c xu hng c kt hp vi gi tr ln ca bin Y v ngc li.
147

Khng tng quan
Y
Hnh 4.4: Khng tng quan

Cc gi tr ca hai bin X v Y khng tng quan vi nhau.
Tng quan dng v tng quan m
Tng quan c th mt phn hoc ton phn v cng c th dng hoc m.
NH NGHA
Tng quan dng (positive correlation) xy ra khi gi tr nh ca bin ny c xu hng kt hp vi
gi tr nh ca bin khc v gi tr ln ca bin ny c xu hng kt hp vi gi tr ln ca bin khc.
Tng quan m (negative correlation) xy ra khi gi tr nh ca bin ny c xu hng kt hp vi gi tr
ln ca bin khc v gi tr ln ca bin ny c xu hng kt hp vi gi tr nh ca bin khc.
BI TP THC HNH 1
(5 PHT)
Trong bn th biu din tng quan ton phn v tng quan mt phn, th no
th hin tng quan m?
1.3 H s tng quan

C th o lng mc tng quan gia hai bin. Bng vic s dng kt qu thc
t di dng cc cp d liu, chng ta c th xc nh hai bin c tng quan ton
phn hay tng quan mt phn; v nu chng tng quan mt phn vi nhau, th c
th xc nh c tng quan mt phn cao hay thp.
tng quan c o bng h s tng quan r (cn c gi l h s tng quan
mmen tch Pearson).
C mt s cng thc tnh h s tng quan (tt nhin vic tnh ton theo cc cng
thc s cho cng mt kt qu). Mt cng thc trong s l:
H s tng quan r =
148
nxy xy
[nx2 (x)2][ny2 (y)2]

Trong : x v y th hin cc cp d liu cho hai bin x v y; n l s lng cc cp
d liu s dng trong phn tch.
y l cng thc s c s dng trong cc v d tip theo.
H s tng quan r lun nm trong khong t 1 n +1. Nu kt qu nm ngoi
khong ny th bn lm sai.
r = +1 tc l cc bin c tng quan ton phn dng (perfectly positively correlated).
r = 1 tc l cc bin c tng quan ton phn m (perfectly negatively correlated).
r = 0 tc l cc bin khng tng quan vi nhau.
e.g.
V D
H S TNG QUAN
Ngi ta cho rng chi ph sn xut mt nh my ph thuc vo s lng cc sn

phm c sn xut. D liu v s lng cc sn phm c sn xut trong su
thng v chi ph km theo c thu thp nh sau:
Thng
Sn lng
(Nghn sn phm)
x
Chi ph
(Nghn GBP)
y
11
13
11
15
Yu cu
nh gi xem c bt k mi tng quan no gia sn lng v chi ph khng?
BI GII
r=
nxy xy
[nx2 (x)2][ny2 (y)2]
Chng ta cn tm cc gi tr sau:
(a) xy: Nhn mi gi tr ca x vi gi tr tng ng ca y, do s c 6 gi tr
xy. Cng 6 gi tr ny li tnh tng.
(b) x: Ly tng 6 gi tr ca x. (x)2 s l bnh phng ca tng ny.
(c) y: Ly tng 6 gi tr ca y. (y)2 s l bnh phng ca tng ny.
(d) x2: Tnh bnh phng ca mi gi tr ca x, do s c 6 gi tr cho x2. Cng
cc gi tr ny li tnh tng.
(e) y2: Tnh bnh phng ca mi gi tr ca y, do s c 6 gi tr cho y2. Cng
cc gi tr ny li tnh tng.
149

Cc php tnh
x
xy
x2
y2
18
81
11
33
121
49
13
52
16
169
11
33
121
15
75
25
225
x = 18
y = 66
xy = 218
x = 64
y = 766
(x)2 = 182 = 324

n
=6
=
=
=
(y)2 = 662 = 4.356
(6 x 218) (18 x 66)

(6 x 64 324) x (6 x 766 4.356)
1.308 1.188
(384 324) x (4.596 4.356)
120
120
120
=
=
=1
14.400 120
60 x 240
C tng quan ton phn dng gia sn lng v chi ph sn xut nh my.
Tng quan trong chui thi gian

Tng quan tn ti trong mt chui thi gian, nu gi tr xc nh thi gian v gi tr
c ghi li tng ng vi thi gian c mi lin h vi nhau. H s tng quan
c tnh ton vi thi gian l bin x, tuy nhin nu s dng gi tr x n gin thay v
s nm th s tin li hn.
Chng hn, thay v s dng mt dy s cc nm t 2005 n nm 2009, chng ta c
th ly cc gi tr cho bin x t 0 (nm 2005) n 4 (nm 2009).
Lu rng d bn s dng bt c gi tr ban u no cho bin x (c th l 0, 1, 2, ...,
721, ..., 953) th gi tr ca r cng khng i.
BI TP THC HNH 2
(20 PHT)
Doanh s bn sn phm A t nm 20X7 n nm 20Y1 nh sau:
150
Nm
S n v bn (nghn n v)
20X7
20
20X8
18
20X9
15
20Y0
14
20Y1
11

Yu cu
Xc nh xem c xu hng no trong doanh s bn hng khng. Hay ni cch khc,
xc nh xem c bt k s tng quan no gia nm v s n v bn khng.
1.4 H s xc nh r2
Ngoi tr cc trng hp c gi tr hon ho hoc gn bng +1, 1 hoc 0, h s
tng quan trong cc trng hp cn li c ngha khng r rng. V d, h s tng
quan gia hai bin l +0,8 cho chng ta bit cc bin c tng quan dng, nhng
s tng quan khng phi l ton phn. Thc ra, chng ta s kh thy n c
ngha no khc. Bnh phng h s tng quan r2 - c gi l h s xc nh s
gip chng ta phn tch y hn.
NH NGHA
H s xc nh (coefficient of determination) - vit tt l r2 hoc R2 - o lng t l ca tng bin
thin (thay i so vi gi tr trung bnh) trong gi tr ca bin ny, m c th c gii thch bng s
bin thin trong gi tr ca bin khc.
Trong bi tp thc hnh trn, r = 0,992, do r2 = 0,984. iu ny c ngha l
hn 98% cc bin thin trong doanh s bn hng c th c gii thch bng s bin
thin ca thi gian, cn 0,016 (cha n 2%) cc bin thin cn li s c gii thch
bng cc nhn t khc.
Tng t, nu h s tng quan gia sn lng v cc chi ph bo tr sn phm ca
mt cng ty l 0,9 th r2 s l 0,81; tc l 81% bin thin trong chi ph bo tr c th
c gii thch bng bin thin trong mc sn lng, ch cn li 19% bin thin s
c gii thch bng cc nhn t khc (nh tui th ca thit b).
Tuy nhin, lu rng nu r2 = 0,81 th chng ta c th ni rng 81% bin thin trong
bin y c th gii thch bng s bin thin trong bin x. Chng ta khng c kt
lun rng 81% bin thin trong bin y l do s bin thin trong bin x. Chng ta phi
bit cch din gii ngha trong phn tch thng k.
Cc mi quan h phi tuyn (non-linear relationships)
Cng thc c s dng trn cho r v r2 ch c hiu qu cho cc mi quan h tuyn
tnh hoc gn tuyn tnh. Tt c cc im trn th phn tn c th nm trn mt
ng cong nh sau.
y
Hnh 4.5: Mi quan h phi tuyn
151

Nu s dng cng thc tnh r trong trng hp ny, ta s thu c mt gi tr r
nh, tc l c mi quan h tng quan thp gia hai bin. Tuy nhin, trn thc t
hai bin li tng quan ton phn vi nhau, nu xt theo mi quan h phi tuyn. C
nhiu phng php kim tra cc tng quan thuc loi ny, nhng cc phng php
nm ngoi phm vi ca gio trnh.
1.5 S tng quan v quan h nhn qu

Nu hai bin c tng quan cht ch vi nhau (dng hoc m) th iu ny c th
do ngu nhin hoc c th c mt l do no . Cng thu thp c nhiu cp d
liu th cng t xy ra kh nng tng quan do ngu nhin, nhng chng ta khng nn
hon ton b qua kh nng .
Nu c mt l do no th cng khng nht thit phi l quan h nhn qu. V d:
thu nhp thc hng thng ca mt ngi c tng quan cht ch vi s tin gi vo
ti khon ngn hng ca ngi , song y l mt quan h lgc (khng phi l quan
h nhn qu): i vi hu ht mi ngi, tin gi hng thng vo ti khon ngn hng
ng bng thu nhp thc ca h.
Thm ch trong trng hp dng nh c li gii thch nhn qu cho mt mi quan
h tng quan, th cng khng c ngha cc bin thin gi tr ca bin ny gy ra cc
bin thin gi tr ca bin khc. V d, doanh s bn kem v doanh s bn knh rm
c tng quan cht ch vi nhau khng phi bi mi quan h nhn qu no c, m
v thi tit nh hng n c hai bin .
Tt nhin, chng ta c kh nng tm thy mt mi quan h nhn qu trc tip trong
nhiu trng hp hai bin c tng quan vi nhau.
1.6 H s tng quan hng Spearman

Trong v d trn, d liu c cung cp di dng gi tr ca cc bin lin quan
(chng hn nh s lng n v sn phm c sn xut). Tuy nhin, i khi chng
c cung cp di dng th bc hoc hng m khng phi l cc gi tr thc t.
Trong trng hp , h s tng quan R, c gi l h s tng quan hng
Spearman, s c s dng v c th tnh theo cng thc di y:
H s tng quan hng Spearman, R = 1
6d2
n(n2 1)
Trong : n = s lng cc cp d liu

d = chnh lch v th bc gia mi tp d liu.
NH NGHA
H s tng quan hng Spearman (Spearmans rank correlation coefficient) - cn gi l R - c s
dng o lng quan h tng quan gia hng hoc th bc ca hai bin.
H s tng quan hng c th c din gii ging nh h s tng quan thng.
Gi tr ca n c th nm trong khong t 1 n +1.
152
e.g.
V D
H S TNG QUAN HNG
V tr xp hng trong k thi ca 7 sinh vin nh sau:

Sinh vin
Xp hng mn Thng k
Xp hng mn Kinh t hc
Yu cu
nh gi xem liu v tr xp hng ca cc sinh vin mn Thng k c tng quan
vi v tr xp hng ca h mn Kinh t hc khng.
BI GII
S tng quan phi c o lng bng h s tng quan hng Spearman, v
chng ta ch c cung cp thng tin v th bc ca sinh vin ch khng phi im
s thc t ca h.
R=1
6d2
n(n2 1)
Trong : d l s chnh lch gia th bc mn Thng k v th bc mn Kinh t

hc ca mi sinh vin.
Sinh vin
Xp hng mn Xp hng mn
Thng k
Kinh t hc
d2
9
d = 26
2
156
6 x 26

=1
= 0,536
336
7 x (49 1)
y l tng quan dng (R = 0,536) nhng khng cao.
R=1
153

Cc th hng ngang nhau
Trong nhiu bi ton, mt s phn t c th c cng th hng. Vi trng hp ,
th hng ca nhng phn t ny phi c gn li bng cch s dng s trung bnh,
trc khi tnh h s tng quan hng. Di y l mt v d:
Xp hng ca sinh vin trong k thi
Biu din thnh
1=
1=
1,5
5=
5=
trung bnh ca 1 v 2
1,5
trung bnh ca 5, 6 v 7
5=
BI TP THC HNH 3
(10 PHT)
Nm ngh s c xp hng theo thnh tch bi hai ngi nh gi khc nhau nh sau:
Ngh s
Th hng theo
Th hng theo
ngi nh gi P ngi nh gi Q
4=
2=
2=
4=
Yu cu
nh gi xem hai tp hp th hng ny c tng quan vi nhau nh th no?
154
2 NG XU TH
S tng quan
(Correlation)
S tng quan v hi quy

ng xu th
(Lines of best fit)
H s tng quan o lng tng quan gia cc bin, nhng khng cho chng ta
bit lm th no d on gi tr cho bin s (bin y) da trn cc gi tr cho trc
ca bin khc (bin x). lm iu , chng ta cn tm mt ng xu th (hay cn
gi l ng ph hp nht - line of best fit) gn nht vi cc im trn th phn tn,
sau dng ng tm gi tr y tng ng vi mi gi tr x cho.
Chng ta s nghin cu hai phng php c th lm c vic ny, l:
phng php th phn tn v hi quy tuyn tnh s dng phng php bnh
phng nh nht.
2.1 Phng php th phn tn

NH NGHA
Phng php th phn tn (scattergraph method) l phng php v cc cp d liu cho hai
bin lin quan trn cng mt th xy dng mt th phn tn, sau s dng phn on
v mt ng xu th ph hp nht vi cc d liu.
V d, gi s chng ta c cc cp d liu v doanh thu bn hng v chi ph qung co
ca mt cng ty nh sau:
Giai on
Chi ph qung co
(GBP)
Doanh thu
(GBP)
17.000
180.000
33.000
270.000
34.000
320.000
42.000
350.000
19.000
240.000
41.000
300.000
26.000
320.000
27.000
230.000
155

Cc cp d liu ny s c v trn th phn tn (trc honh i din cho bin c
lp v trc tung i din cho bin ph thuc) v ng xu th c th c v nh
hnh di y. ng xu th chia tp im d liu thnh hai phn, sao cho s lng
im d liu nm bn di v s lng im d liu nm bn trn ng xu th l
bng nhau (hoc xp x bng nhau).
Doanh s
bn hng
(Nghn GBP)
400
x
300
x
200
x
x
x
x
100
10
20
30
40
50 Chi ph qung co
(Nghn GBP)
Hnh 4.6: Phng php th phn tn

Gi s cng ty ny mun d bo doanh s bn hng s t bao nhiu, nu chi 35.000
GBP cho qung co. c lng v doanh s bn hng c th c c trc tip t
th phn tn nh trn (290.000 GBP).
2.2 Hi quy tuyn tnh s dng phng php bnh

phng nh nht
NH NGHA
Phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh s dng phng php bnh phng nh nht (least squares method
of linear regression analysis) cung cp k thut c lng phng trnh ca ng xu th.
Phng trnh ca mt ng thng c dng y = a + bx.
Trong :

v
x v y l hai bin c lin quan vi nhau.

x l bin c lp.
y l bin ph thuc.
a l h s chn (giao im ca ng thng vi trc tung).
b l dc ca ng thng.
Phng php bnh phng nh nht gip c lng cc gi tr ca a v b bng cch

s dng cc cng thc sau:
b=
nxy xy
nx2 (x)2
y
bx
a= n n
156

Trong : n l s lng cc cp d liu.
C mt s im cn lu khi s dng cc cng thc trn:
(a) ng xu th l kt qu ca hi quy y theo x.
Ta cng c th thu c mt ng xu th khc bng cch hon i x v
y trong cc cng thc trn. Khi , ng xu th ny s l kt qu ca hi
quy ca x theo y (x = a + by) v c cc h s khc vi ng xu th hi quy
y theo x. V mc ch kim nh, chng ta lun hi quy y theo x, trong x l
bin c lp v y l bin ph thuc - bin chng ta mun d bo gi tr cn c
vo gi tr cho ca x. Trong chui thi gian, bin x i din cho thi gian.
(b) Do a =
y
bx
y x

nn ng xu th phi lun i qua im
,
.
n
n
n
n
(c) Nu nhn vo cng thc cho b v so snh vi cng thc chng ta dng cho
h s tng quan (Phn 1.3) bn s thy c mt s im tng ng gia
hai cng thc ny.
e.g.
V D
PHNG PHP BNH PHNG NH NHT
Bn c cung cp cc d liu v sn lng mt nh my v chi ph sn xut trong

nm thng qua nh sau:
Thng
Sn lng
x
(Nghn n v)
Chi ph
y
(Nghn GBP)
20
82
16
70
24
90
22
85
18
73
Gia sn lng v chi ph c tng quan ln, do c th d on chi ph c

nh v chi ph bin i trn mt n v sn lng bng cch s dng phng php
bnh phng nh nht.
Yu cu
(a) Lp phng trnh xc nh mc chi ph k vng bt k mc sn lng no
cho trc.
(b) Tnh ton chi ph, nu sn lng t 22.000 n v.
(c) Chng minh c tng quan cao gia sn lng v chi ph bng cch tnh
h s tng quan.
157

BI GII
(a) Cc php tnh
x
xy
x2
y2
20
82
1.640
400
6.724
16
70
1.120
256
4.900
24
90
2.160
576
8.100
22
85
1.870
484
7.225
18
73
1.314
324
5.329
x = 100
y = 400
xy = 8.104
x = 2.040
y = 32.278
= 5 (C 5 cp d liu cho cc gi tr ca bin x v y)

nxy xy
=
nx2 (x)2
(5 x 8.104) (100 x 400)

(5 x 2.040) 1002
40.520 40.000
520

=
(10.200 10.000)
200
= 2,6
y
bx
=
n
n
=
400
5
2,6
= 28
= 28 + 2,6x
100
5
Trong : y = chi ph, n v l nghn GBP

x = sn lng, n v l nghn n v.
(b) Nu sn lng l 22.000 n v, th ch ph k vng s l:
28 + 2,6 22 = 85,2 = 85.200 GBP.
(c) r

158
520
200 x (5 x 32.278 4002)

520
520
=
=
= + 0,99
527,3
200 x 1.390
BI TP THC HNH 4
(30 PHT)
Chi ph ngh thanh ton v tng s dm xe -t chy thc hin cng vic kinh
doanh trong mt ngy c th ca mt mu nhn vin bn hng nh sau.
Nhn vin bn hng
Tng s dm
Chi ph (GBP)
100
60
80
48
20
20
120
55
70
38
50
38
80
44
40
30
50
40
60
50
Yu cu
(a) V s cc d liu trn th phn tn.
(b) Bng phng php bnh phng nh nht, hy xc nh m hnh tuyn tnh
d on chi ph nu bit tng s dm ng chy.
(c) V m hnh ln th phn tn.
(d) C thm ba nhn vin bn hng trnh cc ngh thanh ton chi ph cng
vi tng s dm ng nh sau:
Nhn vin bn hng
Tng s dm
Chi ph
(GBP)
110
64
30
48
160
80
Hy tho lun v tng trng hp xem cc ngh ny c hp l hay khng.
ng hi quy v chui thi gian

Ta cng c th p dng cng mt phng php xc nh ng hi quy (ng
xu hng) cho mt chui thi gian. Phng php ny cc k hu ch vi mc ch
d bo. Cng ging nh trong trng hp tnh ton h s tng quan, cc nm c
th c nh s bt u t 0.
159
BI TP THC HNH 5
(20 PHT)
Doanh s bn sn phm B trong by nm t 20X3 n 20X9 nh sau:

Nm
Doanh s bn sn phm B
Nghn n v
20X3
22
20X4
25
20X5
24
20X6
26
20X7
29
20X8
28
20X9
30
C tng quan cao gia thi gian v doanh s.

Yu cu
Xc nh ng xu hng ca doanh s bn hng v d bo doanh s bn hng
nm 20Y0 v nm 20Y1
ngha ca bnh phng nh nht
Thut ng bnh phng trong phn tch hi quy bnh phng nh nht ni ti bnh
phng ca chnh lch gia gi tr thc t ca bin c lp (y) v gi tr d bo theo
ng xu th. Cc chnh lch ny c quy l phn d (residual) hoc sai s phn
d (residual error). Bnh phng nh nht c ngha l ng xu th c tnh ton
sao cho tng bnh phng cc phn d t gi tr nh nht. Cc chnh lch ny c
o lng theo phng thng ng (phng ca trc tung), khng phi l khong
cch xc nh bng cch h ng vung gc xung ng hi quy.
y
x
x
Cc chnh lch gia

gi tr thc t v gi
tr d bo
x
x
Hnh 4.7: th minh ha cho phng php bnh phng nh nht
160
2.3 Gii thch ngha ca cc h s hi quy

Nh cp cc phn trc, phng php bnh phng nh nht ca phn tch
hi quy tuyn tnh gip chng ta tnh ton cc h s a v b (vi tp gi tr cho ca
bin x v y). Ti y bn c th t xc nh c cc h s ny.
a v b l cc h s ca ng hi quy y = a + bx, nhng c th chng c ngha l g?
Chng ta phn tch trong Phn 2.2 rng a l l h s chn, xc nh giao im ca
ng xu th vi trc tung. th phn tn ca Bi tp thc hnh 4 c v li di
y, nhng ng hi quy c ko di c th ct trc tung (y). Giao im ca
ng ny vi trc y nm trong khong 18 hoc 19; gi tr ca a c tnh l 18,18
bng cch s dng cng thc c lng h s trong phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh.
iu ny c ngha l khi tng cc dm ng bng 0 th chi ph xp x 18,00 GBP. Hay
ni cch khc, cc chi ph khc khng lin quan n qung ng i l 18 GBP
mt ngy. Cc chi ph ny c th bao gm chi ph sinh hot ca nhn vin bn hng.
b l dc hoc nghing ca ng xu th. dc ca mt ng thng ph
thuc vo mc thay i gi tr ca bin y i vi mt n v gia tng ca bin x.
th (a) bn di, khi bin x tng mt n v (t 5 ln 6) th bin y tng 10 n v (t
10 ln 20). th (b), khi bin x tng mt n v th bin y tng 5 n v.
(a)
(b)
(c)
20
20
20
15
15
10
10
10
Hnh 4.8: th biu din cc dc khc nhau

10
thay i ca y 20 10
dc ca ng xu th th a =
=
=
= 10
1
6 5
gia tng ca x
thay i ca y 15 10
dc ca ng xu th th b =
=
=5
6 5
gia tng ca x
dc ca ng xu th th c =
thay i ca y
gia tng ca x
10 15
6 5
= 5
th (a) v th (b), y tng khi x tng v dc l dng. Tuy nhin, th (c)

y gim khi x tng, do dc l m.
V s hc, dc biu din t l gia s thay i gi tr ca bin y khi c s gia tng
ca bin x.
thay i ca y 61 18
th phn tn bn di, dc bng =
=
= 0,36
120
gia tng ca x
161

Chi ph (GBP)
70
60
x
x
50
x
x
40
x
x
61-18
30
20
10
120
20
40
60
80
100
120
Tng s dm
Hnh 4.9: th phn tn ca chi ph v tng s dm

iu ny c ngha l c tng mi dm ng i th chi ph cng tng thm 0,36 GBP.
dc 0,36 ch ra chi ph bin i s tng thm 0,36 GBP cho mt dm tng ln.
BI TP THC HNH 6
(5 PHT)
Hy gii thch ngha cc h s ca ng hi quy c xc nh trong v d c tiu

l Phng php bnh phng nh nht Phn 2.2.
2.4 tin cy ca cc c lng

H s xc nh (r2) c tnh bng cch bnh phng h s tng quan, gip chng
ta c tnh s bin thin trong gi tr ca bin y do hi quy (tc l gii thch bng s
bin thin ca bin khc). Trong Bi tp thc hnh 5, r = 0,94 (c tnh bn di)
v r2 = 0,884. iu ny cho chng ta bit 88,4% s bin thin trong doanh s bn
hng c th c gii thch bng s bin thin ca thi gian. iu ny cng cho
thy c tnh cho nm 20X8 v nm 20X9 c tin cy tng i cao.
Chng ta khng kt lun rng 88,4% bin thin trong gi tr ca bin y l do bin thin
ca thi gian gy ra. C th doanh s bn hng cao xy ra vo cng thi k kinh t
pht trin v y mi l nguyn nhn thc s ca s gia tng trong gi tr ca bin y.
162
(7 x 587) (21 x 184)
4.109 3.864
=
(637 441) x (34.202 33.856)
[(7 x 91) (21 x 21)] x [(7 x 4.886) ( 184 x 184)
245
196 x 346
= 0,94
245
260,4
Nu c mt mi quan h tuyn tnh hon ho gia bin x v y (r = 1) th chc chn

chng ta c th d on gi tr ca bin y vi bt c gi tr cho trc no ca bin x.
Nu tng quan cao (v d r = 0,9) th cc gi tr thc s nm kh gn vi ng hi
quy. V th, cc d on s khng th nm qu xa ng xu th. Nu h s tng
quan nh hn hoc bng 0,7 th cc d on s ch cho ch dn s lc v gi tr c
th c ca bin y.
Cng ging nh bt k qu trnh phn tch no, s lng d liu c sn l rt quan
trng. D c tng quan ln nhng nu chng ta ch c 10 cp gi tr tr xung th
vic c lng cng khng ng tin cy.
Khi tnh ton mt ng xu th, ta s c mt khong gi tr cho bin x. Trong v d
v phng php bnh phng nh nht trong Phn 2.2, ng xu th y = 28 + 2,6x
c c lng t tp d liu vi cc gi tr sn lng nm trong khong t x = 16
n x = 24. Nh tng quan cao gia x v y, chng ta c th yn tm s dng ng
xu th c c lng d on cc gi tr cho y, min l gi tr ca x vn nm
trong khong t 16 n 24. Chng ta s khng th chc chn nu dng cng thc
ny d on gi tr cho y khi x = 10 hoc 30 hoc bt k gi tr no khc nm ngoi
khong 16 24, bi mun vy th ngay t u chng ta phi gi s rng ng xu
th cng phi p dng c cho cc gi tr ca x ngoi khong gi tr c dng
thit lp ng ny.
(a) Php ni suy (interpolation) c ngha l s dng ng xu th d on
mt gi tr nm trong ca khong quan st.
(b) Php ngoi suy (extrapolation) c ngha l s dng ng xu th d on
mt gi tr nm ngoi khong quan st.
2.5 u im v nhc im ca phn tch hi quy

u im ca phn tch hi quy s dng phng php bnh phng nh nht l:
(a) C th dng c lng mt ng xu th bng cch s dng tt c cc
d liu c sn; c kh nng cung cp mt c lng cho ng xu th ng
tin cy hn bt k phng php no khc (v d: c lng bng mt).
(b) C th nh gi tin cy ca ng xu th c c lng bng cch tnh
h s tng quan r.
Nhc im ca phng php ny nh sau:
(a) Phng php ny gi nh c mt mi quan h tuyn tnh gia hai bin, trong
khi trn thc t c th tn ti mi quan h phi tuyn.
(b) Phng php ny gi nh thng tin v cc s kin trong qu kh cng s
cung cp mt ch dn ng tin cy cho tng lai. V d: dng ng c
lng tng chi ph sn xut da trn cc d liu lch s lp ngn sch d
bo cho cc chi ph trong tng lai. Tuy nhin, nu c lm pht v chi ph,
s tha thun mi v nng sut vi nhn vin cng ty, s chuyn di n
c s mi, vic sa thi nhn vin hay a cc thit b mi vo s dng th
cc chi ph sn xut tng lai c th khng c lin quan g n cc chi ph
trong qu kh.
(c) Phng php ny gi nh rng gi tr ca bin ny (y) c th c d on
hoc c lng t gi tr ca bin khc (x). Trn thc t, gi tr ca y khng
ch ph thuc vo bin x m c th cn ph thuc vo mt s bin khc.
163
CH DN
Trong chng ny, chng ta nghin cu cch nh gi tng quan gia hai bin. Trong chng
tip theo, chng ta s nghin cu cch s dng cc d liu c phn tch qua thi gian cho vic
d on cc gi tr tng lai.
TNG KT CHNG
164
Khi gi tr ca bin ny c lin quan n gi tr ca bin khc th chng tng

quan vi nhau.
Hai bin c th tng quan ton phn, tng quan mt phn hoc khng tng
quan vi nhau. Tng quan c th l tng quan dng hoc tng quan m.
Mc tng quan gia hai bin c o lng bng h s tng quan mmen
tch r. H s tng quan mmen tch r cng gn vi +1 hoc 1 th mi quan h
gia hai bin cng ln.
H s xc nh r2 o lng t l bin thin trong gi tr ca bin ny c th c

gii thch bng s bin thin trong gi tr ca bin khc.
H s tng quan hng Spearman c s dng khi d liu c cho di dng

th hng ch khng phi l cc gi tr thc t.
Phng php th phn tn lin quan ti vic s dng php phn tch v mt
ng xu th cho cc d liu c v trn th.
Phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh (s dng phng php bnh phng nh nht) l
mt phng php c s dng c lng ng xu th. Hy m bo
rng bn bit cch s dng cc cng thc tnh a v b trong phng trnh
y = a + bx.
Phn tch tng quan v hi quy khng ch ra c nguyn nhn v kt qu.

Thm ch nu r = 1 th s tng quan vn c th l mt ch dn sai, c hai bin
u c th b nh hng bi mt bin th ba.
CU HI N TP
1
Cho mt s v d v cc bin c th c tng quan vi nhau.
Phn bit tng quan dng v tng quan m.
H s tng quan mmen tch c th ly gi tr trong khong no?
H s xc nh nn c gii thch nh th no?
H s tng quan hng Spearman nn c s dng khi no?
Th no l phng php th phn tn dng tm ng xu th?
Khi s dng phng php bnh phng nh nht trong phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh,

vic la chn bin no l x c nh hng g khng?
8
Phn d l g?
Nu u im v nhc im ca phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh s dng phng php

bnh phng nh nht.
P N CU HI N TP
1
(a) Chiu cao v cn nng ca ngi.

(b) Qung ng ca mt hnh trnh v thi gian thc hin hnh trnh .
Tng quan dng c ngha l gi tr nh ca bin ny c xu hng kt hp vi gi tr

nh ca bin khc v gi tr ln ca bin ny c xu hng kt hp vi gi tr ln ca
bin khc.
Tng quan m c ngha l gi tr nh ca bin ny c xu hng kt hp vi gi tr
ln ca bin khc v gi tr ln ca bin ny c xu hng kt hp vi gi tr nh ca
bin khc.
3 H s tng quan mmen tch c th ly cc gi tr trong khong t 1 n +1.

4 H s tng quan mmen tch o lng t l bin thin trong gi tr ca bin ny
c th c gii thch bi (khng phi gy ra bi) s bin thin trong gi tr ca
bin khc.
5 H s tng quan hng Spearman nn c s dng khi cc d liu c cung
cp di dng th hng hoc th bc, hn l di dng cc gi tr thc t.
6 Phng php th phn tn l phng php dng v s cp d liu cho
hai bin c lin quan trn cng mt th xy dng mt th phn tn, sau
dng php phn tch v mt ng xu th cho cc d liu .
7 C vn . Nn chn bin c lp l x v ng xu th l kt qu ca hi quy ca
y (bin ph thuc) theo x (bin c lp).
8 Thut ng bnh phng trong phn tch hi quy bnh phng nh nht cp
ti bnh phng ca chnh lch gia gi tr thc t ca bin ph thuc (y) v gi
tr d on bi ng xu th. Cc chnh lch ny c gi l phn d.
9 Xem Phn 2.5.
165
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 th (b) (Hnh 4.2) biu din tng quan ton phn v th (b) (Hnh 4.3) biu
din tng quan mt phn. C hai th ny u minh ha tng quan m.
2 Cc php tnh
Gi cc nm t 20X7 n 20Y1 l cc nm tng ng t 0 n 4.
x
xy
x2
y2
20
400
18
18
324
15
30
225
14
42
196
11
44
16
121
x = 10
y = 78
xy =134
x = 30
y = 1.266
(x)2 = 100
(y)2 = 6.084
n=5
(5 x 134) (10 x 78)
r =
(5 x 30 100) x (5 x 1.266 6.084)

670 780
=
(150 100) x (6.330 6.084)

=
110
12.300
110
110,90537
110
50 x 246
= 0,992
Gia nm v doanh s bn hng (theo n v) c mi tng quan mt phn m.

Gi tr ca r gn vi 1, tng quan cao nhng khng hon ton l tng
quan ton phn. iu ny c ngha l doanh s bn hng c xu hng gim
r rt.
3
Th bc theo
ngi nh gi P
Th bc theo
ngi nh gi Q
d2
1,0
4,5
3,5
12,25
2,5
1,0
1,5
2,25
4,0
3,0
1,0
1,00
5,0
2,0
3,0
9,00
2,5
4,5
2,0
4,00
28,50
166
R=1
6 x 28,5

= 0,425
5 x (25 1)
C s tng quan m thp gia cc th hng.

4 (a)
th phn tn v chi
ph v tng s dm
Chi ph (GBP)
70
60
50
x
x
40
x
x
x
30
20
10
20
40
60
80
100
120
S dm
(b) Bin c lp x l s dm ng i. Bin ph thuc y l chi ph tnh bng

GBP.
x
x2
xy
100
60
10.000
6.000
80
48
6.400
3.840
20
20
400
400
120
55
14.400
6.600
70
38
4.900
2.660
50
38
2.500
1.900
80
44
6.400
3.520
40
30
1.600
1.200
50
40
2.500
2.000
60
50
3.600
3.000
670
423
52.700
31.120
b =

(10 x 31.120) (670 x 423)

10 x 52.700 6702
311.200 283.410
527.000 448.900
27.790
78.100
= 0,36
167
a =

423
10
0,36
10
= 18,18
M hnh tuyn tnh l y = 18,18 + 0,36x.

(c) ng xu th c th c v bng cch s dng hai im nh sau:
x = 20, y = 25,38
x = 120, y = 61,38
670
ng xu th ny c v nh th trn.
(d) Vi tng s dm l 110 dm, m hnh ny s d on chi ph l: 18,18 + (0,36
x 110) = 57,78 GBP, v th ngh thanh ton 64 GBP ca K l cao mt cch
khng hp l.
Vi tng s dm ng l 30 dm, m hnh ny s d on chi ph l: 18,18
+ (0,36 x 30) = 28,98 GBP, v th ngh thanh ton 48 GBP ca L l qu cao
v nn c kim tra li.
M hnh ny da trn d liu cho tng cc dm t 20 n 120 dm, v th
khng nn dng n ngoi suy n 160 dm. Nhng nu dng m hnh ny
th s d on c chi ph l 18,18 + (0,36 x 160) = 75,78 GBP. Trn c s
ny, ngh thanh ton 80 GBP ca M l khng hp l.
5 Cc php tnh
Nm
xy
x2
20X3
22
20X4
25
25
20X5
24
48
20X6
26
78
20X7
29
116
16
20X8
28
140
25
20X9
30
180
36
x = 21
y = 184
xy = 587
x = 91
2
n=7
Trong : y = a + bx
b=
=
(7 x 587) (21 x 184)

(7 x 91) (212)
245
196
= 1,25
a=
184
7
1,25 x 21
7
= 22,5357 lm trn l 22,5

y = 22,5 + 1,25x, trong : x = 0 (cho nm 20X3), x = 1 (cho nm 20X4)
168

Khi s dng ng xu hng ny, doanh s bn hng d on cho nm
20Y0 (nm 7) s l:
22,5 + 1,25 7 = 31,25 = 31.250 n v.
Tng t, vi nm 20Y1 (nm 8) doanh s bn hng d on s l:
22,5 + 1,25 8 = 32,50 = 32.500 n v.
6 H s a = 28 ch ra rng khi khng sn xut sn phm no th vn phi chu
mc chi ph 28.000 GBP. Ni cch khc, chi ph c nh l 28.000 GBP.
H s b = 2,6 ch ra rng khi cc mc sn lng tng ln mt n v th chi ph
tng ln 2,60 GBP. Do , chi ph bin i trn mt n v s l 2,60 GBP.
169
GHI CH CUI CHNG
170
Chng
05
Phn tch chui

thi gian
Cc thnh phn ca
chui thi gian
(The components of
a time series)
Phn tch chui
thi gian
(Time series analysis)
Xc nh
xu hng
(Finding the trend)
D on
(Forecasting)
Gii thiu
Chng 4, chng ta nghin cu mi quan h gia hai bin v c th nh gi
v mc ca mi quan h . Trong chng ny, chng ta s tm hiu cch phn
tch mi quan h gia mt bin (v d doanh thu, s khch hng, sn lng) v thi
gian d on cc gi tr tng lai cho bin .
Mc tiu bi hc
Hiu khi nim chui thi gian.
M t cc thnh phn ca chui thi gian.
Tm ra xu hng bng cch s dng cc s trung bnh trt.
Xc nh s bin i theo ma bng m hnh cng v m hnh nhn.
D on xu hng bng ngoi suy v iu chnh s bin i theo ma.
Hiu khi nim phn d.
Hiu khi nim loi tr yu t ma v.
171
1 CC THNH PHN CA CHUI THI GIAN

Cc thnh phn ca
chui thi gian
(The components of
a time series)
Phn tch chui
thi gian
Xc nh
xu hng
(Finding the trend)
D on
(Forecasting)
1.1 Chui thi gian

NH NGHA
Chui thi gian (time series) l chui cc s liu hoc gi tr c ghi li theo thi gian.
Di y l v d v chui thi gian:
(a) Sn lng mi ngy trong thng trc ti mt nh my.
(b) Doanh s bn hng hng thng trong hai nm gn y.
(c) Tng chi ph hng nm trong mi nm gn y.
(d) Ch s gi bn l mi thng trong mi nm gn y.
(e) S ngi c tuyn dng mi nm ca mt cng ty trong hai mi
nm gn y.
CH DN
Chng 2, chng ta xem xt tm lc v th chui thi gian (historigram)
Xem xt chui thi gian sau y:
Nm
Doanh s bn hng
Nghn GBP
172
20X0
20
20X1
21
20X2
24
20X3
23
20X4
27
20X5
30
20X6
28
Chng 5: Phn tch chui thi gian

th chui thi gian nh sau:
Doanh s
bn hng
Nghn GBP
30
20
20X2
20X3
10
20X0
20X1
20X4
20X5
20X6
Hnh 5.1: th chui thi gian

Trc honh lun c chn biu din thi gian v trc tung biu din cc gi tr
ca d liu c ghi chp.
Chng ta cn phn bit mt s c im ca chui thi gian:
(a) Xu hng.
(b) Cc bin i hoc cc dao ng theo ma.
(c) Chu k hoc cc bin i theo chu k.
(d) Bin i khng tun hon, bin i ngu nhin. Cc bin i ny c th l do
cc tnh hung khng lng trc c nh thay i trong b my Chnh
ph ca mt nc, chin tranh, cng ty b ph sn, thay i cng ngh hoc
ha hon.
1.2 Xu hng
NH NGHA
Xu hng (trend) l s thay i c bn di hn theo thi gian trong cc gi tr ca d liu c
ghi chp.
Trong cc v d v chui thi gian sau y, c ba loi xu hng:
Sn lng trn mt gi
lm vic
Chi ph trn mt n v
S lng nhn
vin
n v
GBP
20X4
30
1,00
100
20X5
24
1,08
103
20X6
26
1,20
96
20X7
22
1,15
102
20X8
21
1,18
103
20X9
17
1,25
98
(A)
(B)
(C)
173

(a) Trong chui thi gian (A), c mt xu hng gim dn trong sn lng trn
mt gi lm vic. Sn lng trn mt gi lm vic khng gim hng nm, v
n tng trong khong thi gian t nm 20X5 n nm 20X6, nhng s thay
i di hn r rng l mt thay i gim dn.
(b) Trong chui thi gian (B), c mt xu hng tng dn trong chi ph trn mt
n v. Mc d chi ph trn mt n v gim trong nm 20X7 t mt mc cao
hn trong nm 20X6, nhng s thay i c bn theo thi gian l mt s thay
i tng dn.
(c) Trong chui thi gian (C), khng c s thay i tng hay gim r rng no
m s lng nhn vin gn nh gi nguyn mc trn di 100. V vy, xu
hng ny l mt xu hng tnh hoc cn bng.
1.3 Bin i theo ma v bin i theo chu k

NH NGHA
Bin i theo ma (seasonal variation) l dao ng ngn hn ca cc gi tr c ghi chp, do
nhng tnh hung khc nhau nh hng n kt qu ti cc thi im khc nhau trong nm, cc
ngy khc nhau trong tun, hay cc thi im khc nhau trong ngy
Sau y l mt s v d:
(a) Doanh s bn kem trong ma h s cao hn ma ng v doanh s bn o
khoc trong ma thu s cao hn ma xun.
(b) Cc ca hng c th k vng doanh s bn hng cao hn trc l Ging
Sinh hoc trong k gim gi ma ng v ma h.
(c) Doanh s bn hng vo th su v th by s cao hn th hai.
(d) Mng in thoi c th c s dng nhiu vo cc thi im nht nh trong
ngy (nh gia bui sng, gia bui chiu) v t c s dng hn vo cc
thi im khc (nh na m).
Theo ma l mt thut ng ch cc ma ca nm, nhng n c ngha rng hn
trong phn tch chui thi gian, nh v d trn chng minh.
e.g.
174
V D
XU HNG KT HP VI BIN I THEO MA
S lng khch hng m mt cng ty du lch phc v trong bn nm qua c minh

ha trong th chui thi gian sau:

Khch hng
(Nghn)
10
x
x
x
2 3
20X0
Xu hng
0
Qu 1
x
x
2 3
20X1
2 3
20X2
2 3
20X3
Trong v d ny, nhu cu dao ng ln theo ma nhng xu hng c bn l tng dn

qua cc nm.
BI TP THC HNH 1
(5 PHT)
Bn k vng s bin i theo ma no trong doanh s bn u a DVD?.

Bin i theo chu k (cyclical variation) l thay i trung hn trong kt qu do cc
tnh hung lp li theo chu k. Trong kinh doanh, bin i theo chu k thng lin
quan n cc chu k kinh t, s bng n v suy thoi lin tip trong nn kinh t.
Cc chu k kinh t c th ko di mt vi nm. Bin i theo chu k di hn hn
bin i theo ma.
1.4 Tng hp cc thnh phn

Trn thc t, mt chui thi gian c th bao gm bn thnh phn. a ra cc
d on chnh xc mt cch hp l, bn thnh phn ny thng phi tch ri nhau.
Chng ta c th bt u quy trnh tch mi thnh phn bng cch tng hp cc thnh
phn ca chui thi gian thng qua phng trnh sau:

Y=T+S+C+R
Trong :

Y = chui thi gian thc t

T = chui xu hng
S = thnh phn theo ma
C = thnh phn theo chu k
R = thnh phn phn d
Mc d c th bit thnh phn chu k, nhng bn khng th thc hin bt k tnh ton
no lin quan n vic tch bit thnh phn . V th m hnh ton hc m chng ta
s s dng, m hnh cng, s khng lin quan n C v c dng sau:
Y=T+S+R
Chng ta s bt u bng cch tch bit xu hng.
175
2 XC NH XU HNG
Cc thnh phn ca
chui thi gian
(The components of
a time series)
Phn tch chui
thi gian
Xc nh
xu hng
(Finding the trend)
D on
(Forecasting)
2.1 Cc phng php

C ba phng php chnh xc nh xu hng:
(a) Kim tra (inspection). Nh chng ta thy Chng 4, c th c lng
bng mt v ng xu hng (trend line - bn cht l ng xu hng
khi s dng trong phn tch chui thi gian) trn mt th sao cho n nm
gia tp hp im c ghi chp, tc l chng ta c th v mt ng xu
hng bng cch quan st. N c v qua trung im ca tp hp im
c ghi chp, v th s im d liu bn di v bn trn ng xu hng
s bng nhau hoc gn bng nhau. Trong v d ti Phn 1.1 ca chng
ny, ng trn th chui thi gian l ng xu hng.
(b) Phn tch hi quy bng phng php bnh phng nh nht (regression
analysis by the least squares method). Chng ta nghin cu phng
php ny Chng 4. Phn tch hi quy bng phng php bnh phng
nh nht gi nh rng ng xu hng d ln hay xung vn l mt ng
thng. Khong thi gian (nh cc qu ghi chp v doanh s bn hng)
thng c nh s t 0 v ng hi quy c xc nh da trn d liu
trong cc khong thi gian . Sau , ng hi quy ny s c ly lm
xu hng.
(c) S trung bnh trt (moving average). Phng php ny c gng loi b
bin i theo ma (hoc bin i theo chu k) bng cch tnh trung bnh v
s c xem xt c th phn tip theo.
2.2 Xc nh xu hng bng s trung bnh trt

NH NGHA
S trung bnh trt (moving average) l gi tr trung bnh lin tip ca cc kt qu trong mt s
khong thi gian c nh.
176

V l gi tr trung bnh ca mt s khong thi gian, nn s trung bnh trt lin quan
n trung im ca ton b khong thi gian.
S trung bnh trt c th bao gm doanh s bn hng ca ca hng trong khong
thi gian l by ngy (v d, t th hai n ch nht) hay chi ph ca doanh nghip
trong cc khong thi gian l bn qu hay bt k khong thi gian no tng ng vi
cc trng hp c th.
e.g.
V D
S TRUNG BNH TRT

Nm
Doanh s bn hng
n v
20X0
390
20X1
380
20X2
460
20X3
450
20X4
470
20X5
440
20X6
500
Yu cu
Tnh s trung bnh trt ca doanh s bn hng hng nm trong khong thi gian l
ba nm.
BI GII

(a) Doanh s bn hng trung bnh trong thi gian ba nm (20X0 - 20X2) l:
390 + 380 + 460
1.230
= 410
3
3
Gi tr trung bnh ny lin quan n nm gia ca khong thi gian trn, tc
l nm 20X1.
(b) Tng t, doanh s bn hng trung bnh trong khong thi gian ba nm
(20X1 - 20X3) l:
380 + 460 + 450
1.290
= 430
3
3
Gi tr trung bnh ny lin quan n nm gia ca khong thi gian trn, tc
l nm 20X2.
(c) C th tnh gi tr trung bnh cho khong thi gian 20X2 - 20X4, 20X3 - 20X5
v 20X4 - 20X6 nh sau:
177
Nm
Doanh s
bn hng
Tng doanh s bn
hng trt ca ba nm
S trung bnh trt ca doanh s

bn hng ca ba nm (3)
20X0
390
20X1
20X2
380
1.230
410
460
1.290
430
20X3
450
1.380
460
20X4
470
1.360
453
20X5
440
1.410
470
20X6
500
Lu cc im sau:
(i) Chui trung bnh trt c nm s liu lin quan n cc nm t 20X1
n 20X5. Chui ban u c by s liu cho cc nm t 20X0 n 20X6.
(ii) Doanh s bn hng t chui trung bnh trt c xu hng tng dn r
rng hn so vi chui ban u ca doanh s bn hng thc t mi nm.
V d trn tnh trung bnh cho mt khong thi gian l ba nm. S trung bnh trt
nn c ly cho khong thi gian no? p n l s trung bnh trt thch hp
nht s ph thuc vo tng trng hp v bn cht ca mi chui thi gian. Lu
cc im sau:
(a) S trung bnh trt ly gi tr trung bnh cc kt qu trong nhiu khong thi
gian s th hin kt qu di hn hn so vi s trung bnh trt ca hai hoc
ba khong thi gian.
(b) Mt khc, vi s trung bnh trt ca cc kt qu trong nhiu khong thi
gian, th s liu cui cng trong chui s l s liu c ca mt vi khong thi
gian. Trong v d ca chng ta th gi tr trung bnh trt gn y nht lin
quan n nm 20X5. Vi s trung bnh trt ca cc kt qu 5 nm th s
liu cui cng trong chui s lin quan n nm 20X4.
(c) Khi bit mt chu k xy ra theo cc bin i theo ma, nh tt c cc ngy
trong tun hoc tt c cc ma trong nm, th s trung bnh trt thch hp
nht s l s trung bnh trt ca mt chu k hon chnh.
BI TP THC HNH 2
(5 PHT)
S dng d liu cho di y, tm s trung bnh trt ba thng ca thng 4.

Thng
178
S lng nh mi c hon thnh
Thng 1
500
Thng 2
450
Thng 3
700
Thng 4
900
Thng 5
1.250
Thng 6
1.000
2.3 S trung bnh trt ca mt s kt qu chn

v d trc, s trung bnh trt c ly t cc kt qu ca mt s khong thi
gian l v gi tr trung bnh lin quan n im gia ca ton b khong thi gian.
Nu chng ta ly s trung bnh trt t cc kt qu ca mt s khong thi gian chn
th cch tnh c bn s tng t, nhng im gia ca ton b khong thi gian s
khng lin quan n mt khong thi gian c th no. V d, gi s ly mt s trung
bnh t bn kt qu sau:
Ma xun
120
Ma h
90
Ma thu
180
Ma ng
gi tr trung bnh 115
70
Gi tr trung bnh ny s lin quan n im gia ca khong thi gian, gia ma h

v ma thu.
Cc s liu trung bnh trn ng xu hng phi lin quan n mt khong thi gian
c th, bi nh vy mi c th tnh c cc bin i theo ma. gii quyt vn
ny, chng ta tnh trung bnh trt ca s trung bnh trt. V d di y s chng
minh cho cch tnh ny.
e.g.
V D
S TRUNG BNH TRT I VI S KHONG THI GIAN CHN
Tm ng xu hng trung bnh trt ca cc kt qu sau:

Nm
Qu
Khi lng hng bn

Nghn n v
20X7
600
840
420
720
640
860
420
740
670
900
430
760
20X8
20X9
BI GII
S trung bnh trt ca bn qu s c s dng v khi lng hng bn s ph
thuc vo ma ca nm v mi nm c bn kt qu theo qu.
179

S trung bnh trt ca bn kt qu khng lin quan n bt k khong thi gian c
th no. V vy, chng ta s ly tng trung bnh trt ca cp tng bn qu v chia
tng trung bnh trt cho 8 (c th l cc khon mc d liu to thnh tng).
Nm
20X7
20X8
20X9
Qu
Khi lng
hng bn
thc t
Tng lng Trung bnh trt

hng bn
ca lng hng
trt ca bn
bn ca bn
qu
qu
im gia ca hai
trung bnh trt
ng xu hng
Nghn n v
Nghn n v
Nghn n v
Nghn n v
(A)
(B)
(B 4)
(C)
2.580
2.620
2.640
2.640
2.660
2.690
2.730
2.740
2.760
645,0
655,0
660,0
660,0
665,0
672,5
682,5
685,0
690,0
650,00
600
840
420
720
640
860
420
740
670
900
430
760
657,50
660,00
662,50
668,75
677,50
683,75
687,50
Cc s trung bnh trt cui cng lin quan n cc qu c th (t qu III nm 20X7

n qu II nm 20X9).
2.4 Xc nh s bin i theo ma

Mt khi xu hng c thit lp, th bng bt c phng php g chng ta u c
th xc nh cc bin i theo ma.
M hnh cng phn tch chui thi gian l Y = T + S + R. Chng ta c th vit li
phng trnh l Y T = S + R. Ni cch khc, nu gim chui xu hng t chui thc
t th chng ta s ch cn c cc thnh phn theo ma v thnh phn phn d ca
chui thi gian. Nu chng ta gi nh rng thnh phn phn d tng i nh v c
th b qua, th thnh phn theo ma c th c xc nh l S = Y T, chui khng
nh hng (de-trended series).
Chng ta s s dng mt v d minh ha qu trnh ny.
180
e.g.
V D
XU HNG V CC BIN I THEO MA
Sn lng ti mt nh my thay i theo tng ngy trong tun. Sn lng ca ba

tun gn y c ch ra nh sau:
Tun 1
Tun 2
Tun 3
Nghn n v
Nghn n v
Nghn n v
Th hai
80
82
84
Th ba
104
110
116
Th t
94
97
100
Th nm
120
125
130
Th su
62
64
66
Yu cu
Xc nh bin i theo ma ca mi ngy trong s 15 ngy v bin i theo ma trung
bnh ca mi ngy trong tun bng phng php trung bnh trt.
BI GII
Cc kt qu thc t thay i ln xung theo ngy trong tun, v vy, s trung bnh
trt ca nm ngy s c s dng. S chnh lch gia kt qu thc t trong bt
k mt ngy no (Y) v s liu xu hng ca ngy (T) s l bin i theo ma (S)
ca ngy .
Bin i theo ma ca 15 ngy c tnh nh sau:
Thc t
(Y)
Tun 1
Tun 2
Tun 3
Tng sn
lng trt
trong nm
ngy
Xu hng
(T)
Bin i
theo ma
(Y T)
Th hai
80
Th ba
104
Th t
94
460
92,0
+2,0
Th nm
120
462
92,4
+27,6
Th su
62
468
93,6
31,6
Th hai
82
471
94,2
12,2
Th ba
110
476
95,2
+14,8
Th t
97
478
95,6
+1,4
Th nm
125
480
96,0
+29,0
Th su
64
486
97,2
33,2
Th hai
84
489
97,8
13,8
Th ba
116
494
98,8
+17,2
Th t
100
496
99,2
+0,8
Th nm
130
Th su
66
181

Th hai
Th ba
Tun 1
Th t
Th nm
Th su
+2,0
+27,6
31,6
+29,0
33,2
+28,3
32,4
Tun 2
12,2
+14,8
+1,4
Tun 3
13,8
+17,2
+0,8
Trung bnh
13,0
+16,0
+1,4
Bn s thy rng s bin i gia cc kt qu thc t trong bt k mt ngy c th

no v trung bnh ca ng xu hng s khng ging nhau t tun ny sang tun
khc. l bi v Y T khng ch gm c bin i theo ma, m cn c bin i ngu
nhin (phn d). Khi tnh ton gi tr trung bnh ca lch Y T ca mi ngy trong
tun, cc thnh phn phn d s b loi b hay t nht s c gim n mt mc
c th b qua c.
c tnh v bin i theo ma hoc theo ngy gn nh hon thnh, nhng cn
c mt bc quan trng na chng ta cn thc hin. Cc bin i xung quanh ng
xu hng c bn phi trit tiu ln nhau, do tng ca chng bng 0. Trn thc t,
trng hp ny him khi xy ra do c bin i ngu nhin. V vy phi iu chnh cc
c tnh theo ma trung bnh tng ca chng bng 0.
Th hai Th ba Th t Th nm Th su
Tng
Trung bnh c tnh v bin

i theo ngy
13,00
+16,00
+1,40
+28,30
32,40
0,30
iu chnh gim ~ tng bin

i n 0
0,06
0,06
0,06
0,06
0,06
0,30
+15,94 + 1,34
+28,24
32,46
0,00
c tnh cui cng ca

bin i theo ngy trung
bnh
13,06
Cc kt qu ny c th c lm trn ln hoc xung nh sau:

Th hai 13; th ba +16; th t +1; th nm +28; th su 32.
BI TP THC HNH 3
(20 PHT)
Tnh xu hng trung bnh trt ca bn qu da trn cc qu thc t di y, sau

xc nh cc bin i theo ma t cc s liu sau:
Doanh s bn hng tnh bng nghn GBP
Ma xun
Ma h
Ma thu
Ma ng
20X7
200
120
160
280
20X8
220
140
140
300
20X9
200
120
180
320
Cc bin i theo ma s dng m hnh nhn

Phng php c tnh s bin i theo ma trong v d trn s dng cc chnh lch
gia xu hng v d liu thc t. Phng php ny gi l m hnh cng.
182
NH NGHA
M hnh cng (additive model) dng phn tch chui thi gian gi nh rng cc thnh phn
ca chui thi gian c lp vi nhau; v d, mt xu hng tng khng nh hng n cc bin
i theo ma.
Phng php khc l s dng m hnh nhn. i khi phng php ny c gi l
m hnh t l.
NH NGHA
M hnh nhn (multiplicative model) hay m hnh t l (proportional model) dng phn tch
chui thi gian biu din mi s liu thc t ging nh mt thnh phn t l ca xu hng.
M hnh ny tng hp mt chui thi gian l Y = T x S x R. Lu rng thnh phn xu
hng s ging nhau d s dng bt k m hnh no, nhng gi tr ca thnh phn
theo ma v phn d s khc nhau theo m hnh c s dng.
V d v xu hng v cc bin i theo ma trn c th c vit li da trn c s
la chn ny. Xu hng c tnh theo cch tng t nh trc y, nhng chng
ta cn mt phng php khc tnh cc bin i theo ma.
M hnh nhn l Y = T x S x R v chng ta tnh S = Y T cho m hnh cng u
phn ny nn chng ta c th tnh Y/T = S cho m hnh nhn.
Thc t
(Y)
Tun 1
Tun 2
Phn trm theo ma

(Y/T)
Th hai
80
Th ba
104
Th t
94
92,0
1,022
Th nm
120
92,4
1,299
Th su
62
93,6
0,662
Th hai
82
94,2
0,870
Th ba
110
95,2
1,155
Th t
Tun 3
Xu hng
(T)
97
95,6
1,015
Th nm
125
96,0
1,302
Th su
64
97,2
0,658
Th hai
84
97,8
0,859
Th ba
116
98,8
1,174
Th t
100
99,2
1,008
Th nm
130
Th su
66
183

Bng tng kt s bin i theo ma c biu din theo t l nh sau:
Th 2
%
Th 3
%
Tun 1
Th 4
%
Th 5
%
Th 6
%
1,022
1,299
0,662
1,302
0,658
Tun 2
0,870
1,155
1,015
Tun 3
0,859
1,174
1,008
Tng
1,729
2,329
3,045
2,601
1,320
Trung bnh
0,8645
1,1645
1,0150
1,3005
0,6600
Thay v tng bng 0 nh trong m hnh cng, tng ca cc gi tr (trong trng hp

ny) phi bng 5 (gi tr trung bnh l 1).
Trn thc t, tng ca chng bng 5,0045, v vy phi tr i 0,0009 mi gi tr. Gi
tr ny qu nh to ra s khc bit cho cc s liu trn, do chng ta s tr i
0,002 v 0,0025 t mi gi tr trong hai bin i theo ma. Chng ta c th ty gim
bin i ca th hai xung 0,8625 v bin i ca th ba xung 1,162.
BI TP THC HNH 4
(10 PHT)
S liu v doanh s bn hng theo qu ca mt cng ty c phn tch thnh xu

hng v cc bin i theo ma bng cch s dng trung bnh trt. Sau y l s
liu trch ra t phn tch:
Nm
20X8
20X9
Qu
Kt qu thc t
Xu hng
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
350
366
380
370
400
380
360
394
410
406
430
414
450
418
370
423
Yu cu
Xc nh bin i theo ma trung bnh ca mi qu bng m hnh nhn
184
3 D ON
Cc thnh phn ca
chui thi gian
(The components of
a time series)
Phn tch chui
thi gian
Xc nh
xu hng
(Finding the trend)
D on
(Forecasting)
3.1 Ti sao phi d on?

D on l mt nhim v cn thit nhng kh khn trong qun l. Nhiu d on
c thc hin bng cch phn on nhng chng khng ng tin cy.
T chc thng d on v cc vn sau:
(a) Chi ph
(i) Nguyn vt liu th
(ii) Bn thnh phm
(iii) Mc lng v chi ph chung
(iv) Li sut
(b) Doanh s bn hng/cc hot ng
(i) Theo ngnh, theo vng
(ii) Theo th trng/sn phm, th phn
(iii) Theo chng loi sn phm, theo nh bn bun, bn l
(iv) V th cnh tranh - v d gi, t gi
(v) Hnh vi cnh tranh
(vi) Gi c
(c) Cng ngh
(i) Sn phm mi
(ii) Quy trnh mi
(d) Xu hng x hi v chnh tr
(i) Nhn khu hc
(ii) H s v ti sn
(iii) Cc iu khon v phc li v sc khe
(iv) nh hng ca cng ngh
185

(e) D n
(i) Thi gian
(ii) Chi ph
C th s dng mt s phng php ton hc d on. Cc phng php ny
khng nht thit a ra cc d on chnh xc, nhng nhn chung chng c th a
ra cc d on tin cy hn vic phn on. Cc phng php ny khng th loi b
s khng chc chn v tng lai, nhng chng c th gip m bo rng cc nh
qun l xem xt tt c cc s liu thc t c hin thi, trong qu trnh chun b a
ra d on ca mnh.
Phng php chng ta s tho lun y l php ngoi suy xu hng, sau iu
chnh cc bin i theo ma.
3.2 D on bng php ngoi suy

NH NGHA
Php ngoi suy (extrapolation) l s m rng (tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn tnh) d on v tng
lai ca cc mi quan h trc .
D on v cc gi tr tng lai phi c thc hin theo trnh t sau:
(a) Xc nh ng xu hng s dng cc s trung bnh trt hoc phn tch
hi quy. Bn c th c yu cu v ng xu hng trn mt biu phn
tn. N l mt ng thng s dng cc s liu ng xu hng u tin
v cui cng hin c.
(b) S dng ng xu hng d on cc gi tr ng xu hng tng lai.
(Bn c th thm gi tr thch hp ca x (= thi gian) vo mt phng trnh
hi quy hoc tnh mt s thay i tng (hoc gim) theo ma trung bnh nh
v d di y).
(c) iu chnh cc gi tr ny theo bin i theo ma trung bnh p dng cho
khong thi gian trong tng lai d on cho khong thi gian . Vi m
hnh cng, cng bin i (hoc tr bin i m). Vi m hnh nhn, nhn gi
tr xu hng vi t l bin i.
Trong trng hp d on tng lai t mt ng xu hng da trn cc d liu
trong qu kh, vic m rng mt ng xu hng ngoi khong d liu bit c
gi l php ngoi suy.
e.g.
186
V D
D ON
Doanh s bn sn phm X mi qu ca ba nm gn y c ch ra nh sau (tnh

theo nghn n v). Cc gi tr xu hng tnh bng phng php trung bnh trt
c trong ngoc.
Nm
Qu I
Qu II
Qu III
Qu IV
18
30
20 (18,75)
6 (19,375)
20 (20)
33 (20,5)
22 (21)
8 (21,5)
22 (22,125)
35 (22,75)
25
10

Cc bin i theo ma trung bnh t qu I n qu IV tng ng l 0,1; +12,4; +1,1
v 13,4.
Yu cu
S dng ng xu hng v cc c tnh v bin i theo ma d on doanh
s bn hng trong mi qu ca nm th t.
BI GII
ng xu hng biu din s gia tng khong 0,6/qu. S gia tng ny c th c
chng minh bng cch tnh s gia tng theo qu trung bnh trong cc gi tr ng xu
hng gia qu III ca nm th nht (18,75) v qu II ca nm th hai (22,75). Mc
tng trung bnh l:
22,75 18,75
7
4
7
= 0,57; lm trn 0,6
Ly 0,6 l mc gia tng theo qu trn ng xu hng th kt qu d on doanh

s bn hng cho nm th t trc khi thc hin cc iu chnh theo ma (d on
ng xu hng) c ch ra nh sau:
Nm
Qu
*II
ng xu hng
(xu hng thc t)
22,75 lm trn
22,8
III
23,4
IV
24,0
24,6
II
25,2
III
25,8
IV
26,4
* Gi tr cui cng bit trn ng xu hng.

By gi, chng ta tng hp cc bin i theo ma tnh kt qu d on cui cng:
Qu
D on theo
ng xu hng
Nghn n v
Nm 4
Bin i theo ma D on doanh s

trung bnh
bn hng thc t
Nghn n v
Nghn n v
24,6
0,1
24,5
II
25,2
+12,4
37,6
III
25,8
+1,1
26,9
IV
26,4
13,4
13,0
Nu chng ta s dng m hnh nhn vi bin i trung bnh cho qu III (v d) l 1,057
th d on cho qu III ca nm th t s l 25,8 x 1,057 = 27,3.
3.3 tin cy
Lu rng dng m hnh nhn d on khi xu hng tng hoc gim theo thi
gian tt hn m hnh cng. Trong tnh hung ny th bin i theo ma c th cng
187

s tng hoc gim. M hnh cng ch n thun cng cc bin i theo ma tuyt i
v khng thay i vo s liu xu hng; trong khi m hnh nhn, bng cch nhn gi
tr xu hng tng hoc gim vi mt h s bin i theo ma li xt n cc bin i
theo ma ang thay i.
Tuy nhin, tt c cc d on u c th c sai s, nhng cc trng hp khc
nhau sai s cng c th s khc nhau.
(a) D on cho tng lai cng xa th tin cy cng thp.
(b) D liu lm c s cho d on cng t th d on cng khng ng tin cy.
(c) Khng th chc chn l m hnh xu hng v cc bin i theo ma s tn
ti trong tng lai.
(d) Lun c nguy c rng bin i ngu nhin s lm ri m hnh xu hng v
bin i theo ma.
Mc d c th ngoi suy tt c cc chui thi gian ca d liu, nhng khng phi tt
c cc trng hp vic ngoi suy u c ngha. Cc hng dn sau s gip tng
tin cy:
(a) Php ngoi suy tt hn ht phi da trn nhn t quyt nh cho s pht trin
v xu hng ca nhn t .
(b) D liu ngoi suy t nht phi l ca nm nm trc, tt nht l mi nm.
Tuy nhin, khi cc thay i cn bn nh hng n cc nhn t quyt nh th
khng cn c d liu t trc khi c cc thay i .
(c) Phi xem xt bt k hn ch no trong php ngoi suy (v d, cc gii hn
vt l hoc chnh tr i vi s pht trin ca nhn t cn ngoi suy). Khi c
hn ch, th php ngoi suy khng cn l mt php tnh xp x hiu qu na.
Cc hn ch ca php ngoi suy trong d on
V da trn cc d liu c v khng tnh cc nh hng kt hp ca mt vi s pht
trin, nn php ngoi suy ch c th c s dng cho cc d on trung v ngn
hn cho nhng phm vi nh hn v c th, m khng k vng c s pht trin
c bn hoc ton b no.
Mc d c cc hn ch trn nhng php ngoi suy a ra d on tt hn, so vi
gi nh hin trng khng thay i (status quo). V vy, ngay c khi khng c thi gian
hoc ngun lc (nh chuyn mn) th mt ngi khng phi l chuyn gia cng s
thc hin c mt php ngoi suy n gin ging nh mt c tnh xp x ban u.
BI TP THC HNH 5
(45 PHT)
Phn trm nhn vin ngh lm c ghi chp trong thi gian bn tun nh sau:
188
Tun
Th hai
Th ba
Th t
Th nm
Th su
8,4
5,1
5,7
4,8
6,3
8,1
5,5
6,0
4,6
6,5
8,4
5,6
6,2
5,0
6,8
8,6
5,6
6,3
4,9
6,9

Yu cu
(a) V biu chui thi gian th hin s nhn vin ngh lm.
(b) Xc nh xu hng v s iu chnh theo ma bng cch s dng phng
php trung bnh trt v m hnh cng.
(c) V ng xu hng c lng bng mt v s dng n lm c s d on
s nhn vin ngh lm theo ngy cho tun th nm.
(d) Phng nhn s cho rng s liu nhn vin ngh lm trong ngy th su ca
tun th tm c th ln n 8%. Tho lun xem bn c th chng minh iu
ny hay khng.
3.4 Phn d
NH NGHA
Phn d (residual) l chnh lch gia kt qu thc t v kt qu d on (cho mt khong thi
gian trong qu kh m chng ta c d liu) bng ng xu hng c iu chnh i vi bin
i theo ma.
Do , phn d l chnh lch khng th gii thch bng ng xu hng v bin
i theo ma trung bnh. Phn d biu th s kt qu thc t b nh hng bi cc
yu t khc. Phn d ln cho thy tt c cc d on u khng ng tin cy. Nn
tnh ton chui phn d (Y T S) nh gi chnh xc ca d on, ng thi
kim tra xem gi thit trong m hnh cng Phn 2.4 c hp l hay khng (c th,
thnh phn phn d c th b qua).
Trong v d mang tn D on trn th d on cho qu III ca nm th nht s
l 18,75 + 1,1 = 19,85. Nu gi tr thc t l 20 th phn d ch l 20 19,85 = 0,15.
Phn d cho qu IV ca nm th hai l 8 (21,5 13,4) = 8 8,1 = 0,1. Vic phn
tch tt c cc phn d lin quan n mt chui thi gian c th s cho thy cc d
on da trn chui thi gian c ng tin cy hay khng.
3.5 Loi tr yu t ma v
Cc thng k kinh t nh s liu tht nghip thng c iu chnh theo ma v
hoc loi tr yu t ma v m bo rng ton b xu hng (tng, gim hoc
tnh) l r rng. Tt c iu ny c ngha rng bin i theo ma (S) (bt ngun t d
liu c) c rt ra cung cp cc s liu (Y S) biu th xu hng.
NH NGHA
Loi tr yu t ma v (deseasonalisation) l qu trnh loi b nhng thay i theo ma khi cc
d liu a ra s liu ch ra xu hng.
189
e.g.
V D
LOI TR YU T MA V
S liu doanh s bn hng thc t ca bn qu vi h s iu chnh theo ma tng

ng rt ra t d liu c nh sau:
iu chnh theo ma
Qu
Doanh s bn hng thc t
M hnh cng
M hnh nhn
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
150
+3
1,02
II
160
+4
1,05
III
164
0,98
IV
170
0,95
Yu cu
Loi tr yu t ma v trong cc d liu ny.
BI GII
Chng ta s o chiu quy trnh p dng bin i theo ma cho s liu xu hng
thng thng. Vi m hnh cng chng ta tr i bin i theo ma dng (v cng
bin i theo ma m). Vi m hnh nhn chng ta chia cho cc h s bin i theo
ma (th hin bng t l).
Doanh s bn hng loi tr
yu t ma v
Qu
190
Doanh s bn hng thc t
M hnh cng
M hnh nhn
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
150
147
147
II
160
156
152
III
164
166
167
IV
170
175
179
TNG KT CHNG
Chui thi gian l chui cc s liu hoc gi tr c ghi chp theo thi gian.
Chui thi gian c bn thnh phn: xu hng, bin i theo ma, bin i theo
chu k v bin ng ngu nhin (phn d).
Chui thi gian c th c tng hp bng m hnh cng (Y = T + S + R) hoc m

hnh nhn (hay m hnh t l) (Y = T x S x R).
Phng php c s dng nhiu nht xc nh xu hng l phng

php trung bnh trt. Mt khi xu hng c xc nh th c th tnh
thnh phn theo ma l Y - T (nu s dng m hnh cng) hoc Y/T (nu s
dng m hnh nhn).
Cn c mt qu trnh tnh trung bnh v iu chnh cc thnh phn theo ma c

lp loi b nh hng ca bt k phn d no v tnh c cc thnh
phn theo ma cho mi ma ca nm v mi ngy ca tun nu cn thit.
C th d on bng php ngoi suy ng xu hng v iu chnh s liu kt

qu i vi thnh phn theo ma ca chui thi gian.
Vic tnh ton phn d ca chui thi gian nh gi chnh xc v tin cy

ca cc d on da trn xu hng v cc thnh phn theo ma.
D liu loi tr yu t ma v (Y S) thng c s dng bi cc nh bnh

lun kinh t
CU HI N TP
1 Chui thi gian l g?
2
Bn thnh phn hp thnh mt chui thi gian l g?
C th xc nh ng xu hng nh th no?
4 Cc gi tr ng xu hng c tnh nh th no khi ly trung bnh trt ca

mt s kt qu chn?
5 Ti sao phi iu chnh bin i theo ma trung bnh tng ca chng bng 0?
6
Phn bit m hnh cng v m hnh nhn ca chui thi gian.
7 Trong tnh hung no nn s dng m hnh t l, ch khng s dng m

hnh cng?
8
M t cch s dng m hnh cng trong d on.
Php ngoi suy l g?
10 chnh lch khng c gii thch bng ng xu hng v bin i theo ma

trung bnh l g?
191
P N CU HI N TP
1 Chui thi gian l chui cc s liu hoc gi tr c ghi chp theo thi gian.
2 Xu hng, thnh phn theo ma, thnh phn chu k v thnh phn phn d.
3 ng xu hng c th c xc nh nh sau:
(a) Bng phng php kim tra.
(b) Bng phng php phn tch hi quy (phng php bnh phng nh nht).
(c) Bng phng php trung bnh trt.
4 (a) Trung bnh trt ca s kt qu chn c ly u tin.
(b) Sau tnh trung bnh trt ca cc s trung bnh trt tnh trong phn
(a). Phi m bo rng s liu trung bnh ca ng xu hng lin quan ti
mt khong thi gian c th.
5 V cc bin i quanh ng xu hng c s trit tiu ln nhau v tng ca
chng bng 0 (trn thc t trng hp ny him khi xy ra do bin i ngu
nhin), nn cc c tnh theo ma trung bnh phi c iu chnh tng ca
chng bng 0.
6 M hnh cng dng phn tch chui thi gian gi nh rng cc thnh phn ca
chui c lp vi nhau.
Tri li, m hnh nhn biu th mi s liu thc t ging nh mt thnh phn t l
ca xu hng.
7 M hnh t l nn c s dng khi c xu hng tng hoc gim theo thi gian.
8 (a) Xc nh xu hng bng cch s dng phng php trung bnh trt
hoc phn tch hi quy. D on xu hng cho khong thi gian c yu
cu.
(b) Tnh thnh phn theo ma S.
S=YT
(trong Y = chui thc t v T = xu hng).
(c) D on gi tr mi bng cch cng hoc tr bin i theo ma t gi tr xu

hng d on.
9 Php ngoi suy bao gm vic m rng mt ng xu hng ngoi khong d
liu bit.
10 Phn d.
192
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 Doanh s bn u a DVD c th t nh im vo L Ging sinh v trc cc
s kin th thao ln nh Th vn hi hoc Gii v ch Bng Th gii.
2
700 + 900 + 1.250

3
= 950
Doanh s
Tng
bn hng bn qu
Tng
Trung
Bin i
tm qu bnh trt theo ma
(Y)
20X7
Ma xun
200
Ma h
120
(T)
(Y T)
760
Ma thu
160
1.540
192,5
32,5
1.580
197,5
+82,5
1.580
197,5
+22,5
1.580
197,5
57,5
1.580
197,5
57,5
1.540
192,5
+107,5
1.560
195,0
+5,0
1.620
202,5
82,5
780
Ma ng
280
Ma xun
220
Ma h
140
800
20X8
780
800
Ma thu
140
780
Ma ng
300
Ma xun
200
760
20X9
800
Ma h
120
820
Ma thu
180
Ma ng
320
193

By gi, chng ta c th tnh trung bnh cc bin i theo ma:
Ma xun
Ma h
20X7
Ma thu
Ma ng
32,5
+82,5
57,5
+107,5
Tng
20X8
+22,5
57,5
20X9
+5,0
82,5
+27,5
140,0
90,0
+190,0
Bin i trung
bnh (nghn GBP)
+13,75
70,00
45,00
+95,00
6,25
iu chnh
tng bng 0
+1,5625
+1,5625
+1,5625
+1,5625
+6,25
Bin i trung
bnh iu
chnh
+15,3125
68,4375
3,4375
+96,5625
Cc gi tr ny c th c lm trn ln hay xung nh sau:

Ma xun 15.000 GBP; Ma h 68,000 GBP; Ma thu 43,000 GBP; Ma ng 96,000
GBP.
Qu
II
III
IV
Bin i, nm 20X8
0,956
1,027
1,053
0,914
Bin i, nm 20X9
1,010
1,039
1,077
0,875
Bin i trung bnh
0,983
1,033
1,065
0,895
iu chnh
0,006
0,006
0,006
0,006
Bin i trung bnh iu chnh
0,989
1,039
1,071
0,901
5 (a)
Chui thi gian v t l phn trm nhn vin ngh lm
Nhn vin
ngh lm
%
9
x
8
7
Chui
thi gian
Xu hng x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
T2
T3
T4 T5
Tun 1
194
T6
T2
T3
T4
T5
Tun 2
T6 T2
T3
T4
T5
Tun 3
T6
T2
T3
T4
T5
Tun 4
T6
Thi gian

(b)
Tng
nm ngy
Trung bnh
nm ngy
(xu hng)
Bin
i theo
ma
Tun
Ngy
D
liu
Th hai
8,4
Th ba
5,1
Th t
5,7
30,3
6,06
0,36
Th nm
4,8
30,0
6,00
1,20
Th su
6,3
30,4
6,08
+0,22
Th hai
8,1
30,7
6,14
+1,96
Th ba
5,5
30,5
6,10
0,60
Th t
6,0
30,7
6,14
0,14
Th nm
4,6
31,0
6,20
1,60
Th su
6,5
31,1
6,22
+0,28
Th hai
8,4
31,3
6,26
+2,14
Th ba
5,6
31,7
6,34
0,74
Th t
6,2
32,0
6,40
0,20
Th nm
5,0
32,2
6,44
1,44
Th su
6,8
32,2
6,44
+0,36
Th hai
8,6
32,3
6,46
+2,14
Th ba
5,6
32,2
6,44
0,84
Th t
6,3
32,3
6,46
0,16
Th nm
4,9
Th su
6,9
Tun
Th hai Th ba Th t Th nm
%
+1,96
0,60
+2,14
0,36
1,20
+0,22
0,14
1,60
+0,28
0,74
0,20
1,44
+0,36
+2,14
0,84
0,16
6,24
2,18
0,86
4,24
0,86
+2,08
0,73
0,22
1,41
+0,29
+0,01
0,01
0,01
+0,28
0.00
iu chnh
Gi tr trung
bnh iu
chnh
Tng
Gi tr trung
bnh
Th su
+2,08
0,73
0,22
1,41
195

Cc iu chnh theo ma c ch ra trong dng cui cng ca bng trn.
(c) ng xu hng c v trn th nu trn, s dng s liu ca th t
ca tun th nht (6,06%) v th t ca tun th t (6,46%).
Xu hng tng 0,4% trong giai on ny, s gia tng hng ngy trung bnh l
0,4/15 = 0,027%. Gi tr trung bnh ny s c s dng suy ra xu hng
ca tun th nm.
D on cho tun th nm:
Ngy
Xu hng
Bin i
theo ma
D on
D on c
lm trn
Th hai
6,541*
+2,08
8,621
8,6
Th ba
6,568
0,73
5,838
5,8
Th t
6,595
0,22
6,375
6,4
Th nm
6,622
1,41
5,212
5,2
Th su
6,649
+0,28
6,929
6,9
* 6,46 + (3 x 0,027)
(d) D on cho th su ca tun th tm da trn cc kt qu tnh ton trn

s l 6,46 + (22 x 0,027) + 0,28 = 7,334%, thp hn nhiu so vi d on
ca Phng Nhn s. C th Phng Nhn s d on mt xu hng tng
nhanh hn. Tuy nhin, khng c d on cho tng lai no ch da trn d
liu ca bn tun l ng tin cy. c tnh 8% khng c chng minh.
196
GHI CH CUI CHNG
197
GHI CH CUI CHNG
198
Phn C
Trnh by thng tin
vi cc nh dng
thch hp
199
Chng
06
Trnh by thng tin

bng bng tnh
Cc cng thc v hm
s trong bng tnh
(Spreadsheet formulae
and functions)
S dng bng tnh

(Using spreadsheets)
Trnh by thng tin
bng bng tnh
(Producing information
with spreadsheets)
V v din gii th
(Creating and
interpreting graphs)
Pivot table trong

bng tnh
(Spreadsheet
pivot tables)
Gii thiu
Trong chng ny, chng ta s gii thch cch thc hot ng ca mt s cng thc
v hm s bng tnh hu ch. Chng 2 v Chng 5, chng ta tho lun v
biu v th c s dng trong qu trnh phn tch d liu. Trong chng ny,
chng ta s tip tc gii thch cch to v din gii nhng biu ny bng bng tnh.
Khi nm k cc biu c bn - biu ng, biu hnh trn, biu ct v
biu tn s - bng cch s dng phn mm bng tnh, bn c th t tm hiu cc
tnh nng khc. Hy nh rng cc cng c tr gip trc tuyn cung cp ngun thng
tin tuyt vi.
Mc tiu bi hc
Nhn bit c cc cch s dng bng tnh khc nhau.
Hiu c b cc ca mt trang Excel.
Bit cch phn tch d liu thng qua Pivot table (Bng tng hp, x l v
phn tch trong Excel).
V nhiu th bng bng tnh.
Rt ra kt lun c gi tr t thng tin v kt qu tnh ton.
201
1 S DNG BNG TNH

Cc cng thc v hm
s trong bng tnh
and functions)
S dng bng tnh

Trnh by thng tin
bng bng tnh
with spreadsheets)
V v din gii th
(Creating and
Pivot table trong

bng tnh
(Spreadsheet
pivot tables)
1.1 Bng tnh l g?

NH NGHA
Bng tnh (spreadsheet) v c bn l mt trang in t c chia thnh cc hng v ct. Bng tnh
cung cp phng php thc hin cc php tnh mt cch t ng.
Bng tnh l mt chng trnh cho php bn s dng d liu d bo, qun l, d
on v trnh by thng tin. Bn di l mt bng tnh x l cc s liu v doanh thu
bn hng d ton ca ba min trong qu u tin ca nm.
Ch thch: l k hiu ca ng Bng Anh - loi tin t chnh thc Anh.
Bng tnh gip tit kim thi gian. V d bng tnh trn c to ra tnh tng doanh
thu bn hng tng thng ca c ba min v doanh thu ba thng ca tng min mt
cch t ng, nu bn thay i doanh thu bn hng d ton trong thng 2 ca min
Bc thnh 3.296 GBP, cc tng s cng s thay i tng ng.
202
Chng 6: Trnh by thng tin bng bng tnh

Lotus 1-2-3 v Microsoft Excel l cc v d v gi phn mm bng tnh. Chng ta s
cp n Microsoft Excel, v y l bng tnh c s dng rng ri nht.
1.2 Cc ng dng ca bng tnh

Bng tnh (spreadsheet) hay worksheet l mt h thng cc hng v ct gip chng
ta theo di cc con s. N l mt cng c ra quyt nh v phn tch ti chnh quan
trng. V bng tnh c th c s dng to ra rt nhiu m hnh, nn gi bng tnh
l gi phn mm s dng cho mc ch chung, khc vi gi phn mm c thit
k cho cc ng dng c th (v d, phn mm qun l bn hng).
Bng tnh c th n gin l mt cng c gip bn theo di sc, tin gi ngn hng
v chi tiu trong gia nh ca bn, hay phc tp nh mt cun s ci tng hp m
k ton vin dng theo di cc giao dch kinh doanh. Chng c s dng lp
ngn sch, ch ra xu hng, d bo cng nh theo di hot ng v kt qu.
Bng tnh c th c s dng tng hp d liu theo nhiu cch. V d, nu thc
hin mt kho st bng phiu iu tra, chng ta c th to ra mt danh sch cc cu
tr li theo th t v c t chc, bng vic s dng mt vi tiu ch (v d sp xp cc
cu tr li theo tui). Chng ta c th tm tt thng tin thm na bng cch m
s ngi c cu tr li ging nhau. Vic chuyn cu tr li nguyn vn (hay bng
li ni) thnh mt cu tr li bng s cho php chng ta to ra cc bng (chng hn
m mt chiu v hai chiu). Chng ta cng c th to ra th, qua quan st s
phn phi (distribution) cc cu tr li. Thng tin c dng s, nh l tui hay
thu nhp, c th c tng hp thm bng cch xc nh cc c trng thng k.
Mt vi ng dng ph bin hn ca bng tnh c ch ra di y:
Lp bo co k ton
qun l
Phn tch v lp
k hoch th phn
Kim sot hng tn kho
Phn tch v d bo
dng tin
Lp ngn sch
K khai l li (Bo co
kt qu hot ng kinh
doanh)
i chiu chng t
thu chi t ti khon
ngn hng
D bo doanh
thu v li nhun
Lp Bng cn i k
ton
D ton chi ph cng

vic
Lp k hoch tr
n v khu hao
Lp k hoch sn xut
Thng k theo b phn

v c nhn
Lp bng lng
Lp chin lc nh gi
u t
ng dng tt nht ca bng tnh in t l x l nhanh cc con s v phn tch quan

h nhn qu (what if). V d cho kiu phn tch ny l vic thay i mt hoc hai s
trong mt bn k hoch ngn sch hoc cu trc nh gi thy s thay i s
nh hng n kt qu nh th no. Cc cng c Solver (gii ton) v Report Manager (Qun l bo co) trong Excel cho php bn pht hin ra nhiu tnh hung ti
chnh phc tp mt cch d dng v nhanh chng.
Cc loi cng c ny c c im chung l u lin quan n vic x l d liu vi:
203
D liu s.
Cc php tnh tn nhiu thi gian v lp i lp li.
Quy trnh x l lgic.
1.3 B cc ca trang Excel

Excel 2007 c giao din hi khc vi cc phin bn trc. c bit, phin bn ny c
thanh ribbon nh di y:
y l mt tp hp cc biu tng nm dc pha trn ca s Excel. Thanh menu

c nhm li thnh cc tab: Home, Insert, Page, Layout, Formulas, Data, Review
v View.
Khi chn tng tab ny, cc la chn nh s xut hin di thanh ribbon (di chc
nng). Tuy nhin, trong tab Home ca menu, s c nhiu la chn hn c nhm
li, bao gm: Clipboard, Font, Alignment, Number, Styles, Cells v Editing. Ngi
dng c kh nng bin i cc ni dung nm di mi tiu , v vy phin bn Excel
2007 c thit lp th hin nhiu la chn khc nhau.
Mt im ci tin khc trong phin bn ny l nt Office gc tri trn cng ca
bng tnh.
Khi a con tr n nt Office, s xut hin mt bng cng c gm cc tnh nng:

Open (m), Save (lu) v Print (in) bng tnh.
S lm vic - workbook (bng tnh) c chia thnh cc ct v hng. Ct c nhn
din bng tiu theo bng ch ci, hng c nhn din bng tiu s. Cc ct
v hng chia trang thnh cc (cell). S ca hng v ch ci ca ct gip xc nh
tng .
Con tr (cursor) ch ra hin hnh. trn u hoc bn di mn hnh, chng
trnh bng tnh s hin th cc thng tin nh:
(a) Tham chiu ca m con tr ch vo.
(b) Ni dung ca m con tr ch vo, nu c.
204

Trong v d di y, hin hnh B4 s hin th pha trn bn tri v c ng
bao m xung quanh. Ni dung ca ny l 2431 nm pha trn cng mn hnh,
ngay bn phi k t fx. Lu rng ni dung ca v nhng g c th hin trong
khng phi lun lun ging nhau. iu ny s tr nn r rng hn khi chng ta s
dng cng thc.
Ni dung ca bt k no c th l mt trong cc ni dung sau:

(a) Vn bn (text). Mt c nh dng cha d liu ch v s (v d, ngy
thng) m khng c s dng trong tnh ton. Trong cc phin bn mi
hn ca tt c cc bng tnh thng dng, vn bn c th c nh dng
theo cch tng t c ni dung nh mong mun, ging nh s dng mt
chng trnh x l vn bn. C th chn cc phng ch khc nhau, bi m
hoc in nghing vn bn, v thay i kch c phng ch.
(b) Gi tr (value). Mt gi tr l mt s c th s dng trong tnh ton.
(c) Cng thc (formulae). Mt cng thc tham chiu n cc khc trong
bng tnh, v thc hin loi tnh ton no vi cc ny. V d, nu C1
cha cng thc = A1B1, iu ny c ngha l gi tr ca A1 s tr i gi
tr ca B1 v kt qu s c trnh by C1. Lu rng mi cng thc
bt u bng mt lnh, la chn hay k hiu c th trong hu ht cc gi
phn bit n vi vn bn. Trong Excel, mt cng thc lun bt u vi k
hiu bng: =. iu ny bo hiu rng bng tnh ang s dng cng thc.
Cc ton t s hc v du ngoc n c kt hp vi nhau to thnh
cng thc. V d:
205
Cng thc
ngha
V d
=A1+C11
Cng gi tr A1 v Nu A1 c gi tr l 4,
C11
gi tr C11 l 12, th kt
qu l 16.
=B3/C5
Chia gi tr B3 cho gi Nu gi tr B3 l 36,

tr C5
C5 l 9, th kt qu l 4.
=F4*B2
Nhn gi tr ca F4 vi Nu gi tr F4 l 7 v
B2
B2 l 8, th kt qu l 56.
=(A1+A2)/(B2B6)
Cng gi tr A1 v A2, Nu A1 = 20, A2 = 12,

sau chia tng ny cho B2 = 15 v B6 = 7, th
hiu gia B2 v B6
kt qu l 4.
=A1^A2
Ly tha gi tr A1 ln Nu A1 = 2 v A2 = 5, th
s ln bng gi tr A2 kt qu l 32
=A1*(A2+A3/A4)
Chia gi tr A3 cho Nu A1 = 5, A2 = 3,
A4, ly thng ny cng A3 = 12, A4 = 6, th
vi gi tr A2. Ly kt kt qu l 25.
qu nhn c nhn vi
gi tr A1.
B cc bng tnh
B trng hng u tin vit tiu bng tnh.

D liu ca cc bin c lp s i t trn xung dc theo ct A, bt u t
hng 2, 3, hoc 4 da vo chi tit cc bin ph thuc.
Cc m t bin s ph thuc bt u hng 2, t ct B. S dng cc ct
khc (C, D ...) nu c nhiu hn mt bin s (xem v d Phn 1.1).
D liu ca mi bin ph thuc i t trn xung dc theo ct di phn m
t ca n.
B sung thng tin cho cc
Di chuyn con tr ti mt v nhn chut. Mt hp s hnh thnh xung quanh

v lc bn c th nhp d liu vo.
Khi nhp d liu vo , bn c hai ty chn.
TAB - chuyn sang ct k tip trong cng mt hng.
RETURN - chuyn sang hng k tip trong cng mt ct.
Tip tc cho n khi tt c d liu c nhp vo trang s lm vic.
Khi hon thnh, nhn vo bn ngoi vng d liu. Thao tc ny s nhp d
liu vo cui cng.
BI TP THC HNH 1
(20 PHT)
Bi tp thc hnh ny kim tra mt vi hiu bit c bn v bng tnh.

(a) Bng tnh l g?
(b) Trnh by nm ng dng ca bng tnh.
(c) hin hnh (active cell) ngha l g?
(d) Mt trong bng tnh c th cha mt trong ba ni dung sau: vn bn, gi tr hoc
cng thc. Gii thch ngn gn mc ch ca cc ni dung trn.
206
2 CNG THC V HM S TRONG BNG TNH

Cc cng thc v hm
s trong bng tnh
and functions)
S dng bng tnh

Trnh by thng tin
bng bng tnh
with spreadsheets)
V v din gii th
(Creating and
Pivot table trong

bng tnh
(Spreadsheet
pivot tables)
2.1 Cc hm s trong bng tnh

Hm s c s dng to thnh ton b hay mt phn ca cng thc. Excel cung
cp hai loi hm ton hc chnh: cc hm s dng trong ng dng kinh doanh v
cc hm hng n ton cao cp, cng nh cc php tnh thng k. Chng ta s tp
trung vo cc hm lin quan n ng dng kinh doanh.
Hm Autosum
Mt trong cc hm c s dng ph bin nht l Autosum. Cng thc ny cho php
tnh tng d dng cc con s theo hng ngang hoc hng dc.
V d, trong bng tnh di y, B7 cha cng thc: =Sum(B4:B6).
Cng thc ny c ngha l B7 s th hin tng cc gi tr t B4 n B6. By gi,

bn c th phn bit c s khc nhau gia ni dung trong mt v nhng g
th hin. B7 cha cng thc (th hin phn trn u, di thanh ribbon, bn phi
fx) nhng li hin th kt qu ca cng thc trong . Nu thay i gi tr ca cc
B4, B5 v B6, th cng thc s tnh li tng ca cc ny v hin th li kt qu B7.
207

Bt c khi no bn nhn nt Autosum ( ) trong thanh cng c chun (Standard
toolbar), Excel s chn mt hm SUM () vo hin hnh. Hm SUM () khng ch vit
cng thc tnh tng, m cn gi vng d liu bn mun tnh tng, v n c t
ch chnh sa bn c th chnh sa vng cn tnh tng.
Lu rng kt qu tng t cng c hin th B7 nu ny cha cng thc:
=B4 + B5 + B6. Tuy nhin, vi hng ngang v hng dc di, th vic s dng hm
Sum s nhanh chng hn nhiu so vi vic nhp cng thc.
Function Wizard
Excel cung cp hai cch nhp tn hm. Bn c th nh tn ca hm, nu bit; hoc
c th s dng Function Wizard. s dng Function Wizard bn c th click vo
biu tng ( ) nh di y:
Hoc, ngi dng c th chn Formulas t menu v hin th nhm cc hm trn

thanh ribbon nh sau:
Nhn vo
s hin th danh sch tt c cc hm, hoc bn c th thu hp la chn
bng cch la chn mt nhm hm nht nh.
208

Chng ta mun s dng hm AVERAGE. Hm AVERAGE s tnh trung bnh tt c
cc s bn lit k trong du ngoc n. Function Wizard s hng dn bn vic lp
cng thc tng bc mt.
Nhp Tng vo A12, sau di chuyn con tr sang B12 v s dng hm
auto-sum () nhp cng thc vo B12 nhm tnh tng cc s pha trn ny.
Bn cng c th mun tnh trung bnh cc s t B2 n B11 v hin th B14.

Nhp Trung bnh vo A14. Sau di chuyn con tr n B14.
Trong phn hm trn thanh ribbon, la chn v mt danh sch tt c cc hm theo
th t ch ci s xut hin. La chn hm Average t danh sch ny.
Hp thoi sau y s xut hin:
Cng thc ny khng phi nhng g bn mun v hm th hin rng bn mun tnh
trung bnh tt c cc gi tr ct pha trn B14, bao gm c trng B13.
Nhp vng d liu B2:B11 vo hp Number 1 trong hp thoi, sau nhn OK.
209

Workbook s hin th nh sau:
e.g.
210
V D
TO BNG TNH D BO DNG TIN
Gi s bn mun to mt bng tnh n gin d bo dng tin trong su thng,

theo bn c th s dng n c tnh cc s d tin mt d kin s thay i
nh th no, khi bt k khon mc ring l no trong bng d bo b thay i. Bn
c cc thng tin sau:
(a) Doanh thu l 45.000 GBP mi thng trong nm 20X5, gim xung cn 42.000
GBP trong thng 1 nm 20X6. Sau ngi ta d on doanh thu s tng
3% mi thng (c ngha l doanh thu thng 2 s cao hn thng 1 l 3%).
(b) S tin n c thu v nh sau:
(i) 60% thng u tin ngay sau khi bn hng.
(ii) 30% thng th hai sau khi bn hng.
(iii) 7% thng th ba sau khi bn hng.
(iv) 3% cn li cha thu v c.
(c) Chi ph thu mua bng vi chi ph bn hng, t mc 65% doanh thu.
(d) Chi ph chung l 6.000 GBP mi thng vo nm 20X5, tng 5% trong nm
20X6.
(e) Tin mt u k l khon thu chi tr gi 7.500 GBP.
(f) C tc: C tc cui nm trn li nhun nm 20X5 phi tr vo thng 5 l
10.000 GBP.
(g) Mua sm c bn: chi ph cho my mc c t mua vo thng 1 l 18.000
GBP. Tr trc 20% khi t hng, tr 70% khi giao hng vo thng 2 v 10%
cn li vo thng 5.

Tiu v b cc (heading and layout)
Vic u tin l nhp cc tiu khc nhau m bn mun vo bng tnh d bo dng
tin. bc ny, mn hnh my tnh s hin th nh sau:
Mt vi iu cn lu bc ny:
(a) Chng ta tng chiu rng ca ct A c th chn cc ni dung vn bn di
hn. Nu chng ta khng lm nh th, ch c phn u tin ca mi ni dung
vn bn c hin th (v c in ra). Bn c th thc hin iu ny bng
cch t con tr gia A v B thanh pha trn. Mt mi tn hai chiu s
xut hin, bn c th nhn chut ko sang bn tri hoc bn phi:
(b) Chng ta to mt dng tiu n gin. Cc tiu rt cn thit ngi

dng c th nhn ra bng tnh dng lm g. Chng ta in m tn cng ty
v in nghing cc tiu khc.
(c) Khi nhp vn bn vo mt , vn bn thng c cn l tri (nh v d
ct A). Chng ta cn l gia tiu trn mi ct bng cch chn cc v
s dng cc nt tng ng pha trn mn hnh.
(d) S trong nn c cn l phi.
(e) Chng ta cc khong trng trong mt s hng nht nh (sau khi ca
khon mc lin quan) s dng v c bng tnh d dng hn.
Chn cng thc (inserting formulae)
Bc tip theo l chn cc php tnh (calculations) m bn mun my tnh thc
hin, c hin th nh cc cng thc (formulae). V d, mun tnh tng doanh
211

thu t hot ng kinh doanh B10, bn chuyn ti B10 v nhp cng thc
=SUM(B7:B9).
Hy nhn vo C7. Chng ta bit doanh thu thng 1 l 42.000 GBP v 60% khch
hng tr tin chm mt thng. Chng ta c th chn cng thc =B5*0,6 vo trong
v in vo cc khc dc theo hng cng thc c sao chp tng thng. Tuy
nhin, hy xem xt nh hng ca vic thay i cng thc thanh ton vi trng hp
55% khch hng tr tin chm mt thng. Trng hp ny i hi phi thay i tng
cho mi trong c t l bng 0,6.
Mt cch khc thc hin nhng thay i v sau d dng hn l t t l tng
ng (trong trng hp ny l 60% hay 0,6) trong mt bn ngoi bng chnh
v tham chiu mi trong bng chnh ti .
iu ny c ngha l, nu t l phn trm thay i th ch cn thay i mt v tt c
cc cn li ph thuc vo s t ng s dng t l phn trm mi.
V vy, chng ta s nhp cc gi tr nh th cc phn tch bit trong bng tnh
nh trang sau y. Xem xt cc gi nh khc m chng ta chn vo phn ny
ca bng tnh.
212

By gi chng ta c th quay li C7 v nhp =B5*C31.
Bn c th copy t D7 sang G7 nh sau:
Khi ang B7, nhn CTRL + C copy, hoc nhn chut phi v chn Copy t menu
th xung, hay bn c th s dng biu tng xut hin trn menu nh di y:
Khi con tr ang B7, gi chut v ko ti G7. By gi, bn s thy t B7 ti

G7 u c ng vin m xung quanh. Nhn Ctrl + v hoc nhn chut phi v chn
Paste, hay bn c th s dng biu tng Paste trn menu paste vo hin hnh
v in cng thc ny trong hng 1 thng tr chm. (Ch rng, do khng c s liu
v doanh thu thng 12 nn chng ta s phi x l B7 ring). Gi s chng ta ang sao
chp n cc t D7 n G7 v i theo quy trnh ny, gi tr ca D7 s =C5*D31,
nh c ch ra di y:
Bn s thy c vn , nu nhn vo bng tnh ny mt cch k cng. Khi bn di

chuyn con tr theo hng ngang, tham chiu B5 s tr thnh C5, sau l D5 v
tng t nh vy. Cng thc ny s ng nu nh bn s dng ng cng thc tnh
doanh thu ca thng trc. Tuy nhin, tham chiu C31 cng s cp nht thnh
D31, E31... - v cc ny trng. Bng tnh lc s nh sau (by gi, gi s doanh
thu c nh bng 42.000 GBP mi thng).
213
2.2 Tham chiu tuyt i v tng i (F4)

C mt s khc bit rt quan trng gia tham chiu tng i (relative) v tham
chiu tuyt i (absolute).
Thng th tham chiu l tng i. Cng thc =SUM (B7:B9) trong B10 l
tng i. N khng thc s c ngha l tnh tng cc s B7 ti B9; m thc s
c ngha l tnh tng cc s 3 trn ny. Nu sao chp cng thc ny ti
C10 (nh chng ta lm sau y), th n s tr thnh =SUM (C7:C9).
y l nguyn nhn ca vn trn. Bng tnh cho rng chng ta ang yu cu n
nhn cch hai hng bn trn v cch mt ct bn tri vi s trong cch 24 dng
xung di, v n thc s l kt qu ca ni dung hng dn m chng ta a
ra. Nhng thc t chng ta ang yu cu n nhn cch hai hng bn trn v cch
mt ct bn tri vi C31. iu ny c ngha l chng ta cn to ra tham chiu
tuyt i (khng thay i) ti C31. Chng ta thc hin iu ny bng cch chn
hai k hiu la ($) vo cng thc tng ng, mt k hiu trc ch ci s ct
v mt k hiu trc s hng.
MO
ng nhp k t la, hy chn chng vo nh sau:
(a) Bin C7 thnh hin hnh v nhn F2 chnh sa n.
(b) Ch nu con tr ang nhp nhy: n nn t sau k t 1. Nu con tr khng
nhp nhy, hy di chuyn n theo hng phm mi tn n c t u
ngay k hoc trong tham chiu C31.
(c) Nhn F4.
Phm chc nng F4 chn k hiu la vo tham chiu: n tr thnh $C$31. Nhn
F4 ln na: tham chiu tr thnh C$31. Nhn thm ln na, tham chiu tr thnh
$C31. Nhn thm mt ln na, phc hi tham chiu tng i n gin: C31.
(a) Mt k hiu la trc ch ci c ngha l tham chiu ct s gi nguyn,
khi bn sao chp cng thc ti mt khc.
(b) Mt k hiu la trc s c ngha l tham chiu hng s gi nguyn, khi
bn sao chp cng thc ti mt khc.
e.g.
V D
Trong v d trc, chng ta thay i tham chiu C7 v ko ngang ti G7, vit

chn ln thng tin trc. y l kt qu:
(a) Cng thc
214
QUAY TR LI BNG TNH D BO DNG TIN

(b) S
D bo ny cn cn cc cng thc khc nh sau:

(a) B5 tham chiu trc tip n thng tin m chng ta bit - doanh thu 42.000
GBP trong thng 1. Chng ta nhp bin s ny vo C49. Cc cng thc
khc trong hng 5 (doanh thu) phn nh t l gia tng doanh thu d on l
3% mi thng, c nhp vo C28.
(b) hng 8 v 9 cng yu cu cng thc tng t vi cng thc c m t
trong hng 7.
(c) Hng 10 (tng doanh thu t hot ng kinh doanh) s hin th cc tng ph
(subtotal) n gin di dng = SUM(B7:B9).
(d) Hng 13 (mua sm) yu cu cng thc da trn d liu hng 5 (doanh
thu)v gi tr C29 (chi ph mua sm tng ng vi % doanh thu). M
hnh ny gi nh s khng c thay i no trong mc hng tn kho hng
thng, v s lng hng tn kho cao tha mn gi nh ny. Cng thc
l B5*$C$29. Lu rng C29 c gi tr m.
(e) Hng 15 (tng cc khon chi cho hot ng kinh doanh), ging nh hng 10,
yu cu cng thc to ra cc tng ph.
(f) Hng 17 v 18 tham chiu ti d liu v c tc v mua sm c bn nhp
vo C38 v C40 ti C43.
(g) Hng 21 (dng tin thun) yu cu tnh tng theo cng thc = B10 +
B15 + B21.
(h) Hng 22 (s d tin mt u k) yu cu gi tr s d tin mt cui k ca
thng trc.
(i) Hng 23 (s d tin mt cui k) yu cu gi tr tng ca s d tin mt u
k v dng tin thun ca thng.
Khi chn cng thc, hnh minh ha sau ch ra cng thc cha trong bng tnh.
(Hy nh rng thng thng mn hnh khng ging nh th ny, v cng thc thng
khng hin th trong ).
215
S m (negative number)
Trong mt bng tnh, bn phi rt cn thn la chn phng php bn mun
thc hin khi thao tc vi s m. V d, nu chn gi tr dng th hin tng cc
khon chi cho hot ng kinh doanh 15, bn cn tr chng t tng doanh thu
t hot ng kinh doanh trong cng thc hng 23. Tuy nhin, nu chn gi tr m
(negative) th hin dng tin ra, th bn cn cng cc khon chi ny vo tng
doanh thu t hot ng kinh doanh. iu ny thm ch tr nn quan trng hn khi
bn x l vi cc khon thu chi hay s d m thnh thong chng c gi tr m hoc
dng, v d, cc hng s d tin mt.
S d u k (opening balance)
Trong bi tp ging nh th ny, vic c s d u k chnh xc l rt quan trng.
Tuy nhin, cho d vic lp ngn sch cho thu nhp v chi ph tt i chng na,
nhng nu bn c tnh khng chnh xc (poor estimate) s d tin mt u k,
iu ny s th hin ngay qua d bo.
Tng hp (integration)
Trong thc t, bn c th s phi tng hp y mt bng d bo dng tin ging
nh th ny vi mt bn bo co li l (cn c gi l Bo co kt qu hot ng
kinh doanh) d bo v Bng cn i k ton. Vic ny bo m chc chn rng cc
con s c sp xp hp l (stacked up), cho php bn trnh by mt d bo
r rng hn: v d, doanh thu s th hin trong bo co li l, cng thc thu tin mt
s tham chiu trc tip ti cc s liu tng ng trong bng tnh (hoc thm ch ti
mt bng tnh ring trong mt s gi phn mm bng tnh). Tng t nh th, tin
mt cha thu c c th c a ngay vo bo co li l nh l chi ph n kh
i (bad debt expense).
216

y l bng tnh dng s thng thng:
Bng tnh ny cn chnh sa thm cht na. Chng ta s lm nh sau:

(a) Thm mt du chm ch ra nghn bng Anh.
(b) Thay i cc s m ang c hin th vi du tr thnh cc s c hin
th trong du ngoc n.
(c) Nu cn thit, bn c th trnh by s liu v dng tin mt theo h thp phn.
Di y l tt c thay i nh dng v c th thc hin bng cch s dng Format/
Cells/Number trn menu. u tin, la chn m bn mun nh dng ( y l t
B5 n G2), sau chuyn sang h thp phn vi du chm ngn cch mi mt
1000 n v. Bn c h quy nh s m l mu , nhng khng th la chn th
hin s m trong ngoc ngay. iu ny cn phi c nh dng theo ty chnh.
217

nh dng ty chnh nm pha trn danh sch phn loi ca nh dng. nh dng
ty chnh khng c h thp phn v s m nm trong ngoc l:
##,##0_-;(##,##0);-_;
Nu bn mun c hai ch s thp phn, th nh dng ty chnh s l:
##,##0.00_-;(##,##0.00);-_;
Chng ny khng th trnh by ht cc la chn nh dng ty chnh cho bn. Nu
bn mun tm hiu thm, th bn c th s dng rt nhiu hng dn c trn internet.
Bng tnh cui cng s nh sau:
218
2.3 Trch xut d liu

C th bn ch cn trch xut nhng k t c th t d liu nhp vo mt . V d, gi
s mt chui m vt liu th c nhp vo bng tnh nh sau:
Bn ch s (digit) trong m bt ngun t s tham chiu ca nh cung cp, trong khi

ch ci (letter) ch ra vt liu c s dng lm Sn phm A, B, C hoc D.
Nu mun phn loi d liu ny theo th t bng ch ci ca Sn phm, bn s c
th gp vn , bi v ch c th sp xp d liu ny theo th t s tng dn hoc
gim dn bng phng php Sort (sp xp) chun.
khc phc iu ny, bn c th trch xut ch ci mi bng hm RIGHT
nh sau:
Cng thc B1 c ngha l Ly ra k t cui (hay tn cng bn phi) t chui

A1. Nu chng ta mun ly ra hai k t cui, cng thc s l =RIGHT(A1,2) v
tng t th.
Cng thc trong B1 c th p dng cho ct pha di, sau d liu trong A1 ti
B20 c th c la chn v sp xp theo ct B, bng cch s dng tab Data trn
menu v la chn Sort trn thanh ribbon:
219
Hm LEFT cng c chc nng tng t, ngoi tr vic n trch ra nhng k t u

tin (hoc tn cng bn tri).
Hm MID, nh bn c th on, trch ra mt k t hay nhiu k t t phn gia ca
, bt u t v tr bn ch ra, tnh t tri sang phi:
=MID([],[V tr],[S lng k t]).
Trong Excel, k t u tin c trch ra l k t ti v tr c ch ra, v th nu bn
mun trch ra k t th ba, bn ch v tr 3. Trong Lotus 1-2-3, k t u tin c
trch l k t k tip k t bn ch ra, v th nu bn mun trch ra k t th ba,
bn ch v tr 2.
220
BI TP THC HNH 2
(10 PHT)
A1 cha d liu: 12-D-496

(a) Bn s s dng cng thc no trch ra k t D sang mt khc?
(b) Bn s s dng cng thc no trch ra s 12 sang mt khc.
2.4 Hm tm kim - Lookup

Hm LOOKUP (trong Formulas/nhm hm Lookup & Reference) cho php bn nhp
d liu tng ng vi mt gi tr trong mt ca ct v tr v d liu hng tng
ng trong mt ct khc. Mt v d n gin s lm r hn vn ny.
y ngi dng nhp mt con s gia 1 v 4 E6 v bng tnh tr li mu tng

ng trong vng A1:B4. Nu ngi dng nhp vo 3 th F6 s hin th Xanh l cy.
Bn c th thy cng thc ca F6 c th hin trong v d trn.
2.5 Gp ni dung
Gi s trn y l d liu nhp vo mt bng tnh.
S ra sao nu bn mun gp d liu cc A1, B1 v C1 thnh mt : 21A64?

lm iu ny, bn ch cn gp ni dung cc ring l li vi nhau bng cch s dng
biu tng & nh di y. C th ko cng thc xung cc hng bn di c
kt qu tng t cho phn cn li ca danh sch.
221
2.6 Dn c bit
i khi, bn c th mun chuyn mt cng thc thnh mt gi tr tuyt i. V d bn
mun ni dung ca D1 v d trn thnh 21A64 nhng khng dng cng thc.
chuyn cng thc thnh gi tr tuyt i, bn hy sao chp hoc cc tng
ng theo cch thng thng, sau chn mt khc (v d, E1 v d trn) v
nhn chut phi. T menu xut hin, chn Paste Special (dn c bit). Hp thoi
sau y s xut hin:
y, nu chn Values (gi tr) th nhng g bn dn vo E1 l gi tr 21A64 ch

khng phi l cng thc D1.
222
3 PIVOT TABLE TRONG BNG TNH

Cc cng thc v hm
s trong bng tnh
and functions)
S dng bng tnh

Trnh by thng tin
bng bng tnh
with spreadsheets)
V v din gii th
(Creating and
Pivot table trong

bng tnh
(Spreadsheet
pivot tables)
3.1 Pivot table l g?

NH NGHA
Pivot table l mt bng tng tc tng hp v phn tch d liu t cc danh sch v bng biu.
hiu pivot table, trc ht chng ta cn hiu thm mt cht v cc bn ghi
v trng.
3.2 Bn ghi v trng

Mt c s d liu c trng c to thnh bi cc bn ghi (record) v mi bn
ghi bao gm mt s trng (field). y l mt v d ca 5 bn ghi, mi bn ghi c
4 trng.
(a) Mi Hng l mt Bn ghi. (Lu rng c Hng (Row) v Bn ghi (Record)

u bt u bng k t R trong ting Anh).
(b) Mi Ct l mt Trng. (Nu bn nh rng Hng (Row) l Bn ghi (Record)
th s khng kh nh iu ny).
223

V d trn c cc bn ghi cho nm ngi; mi bn ghi cha cc trng cho h, tn,
danh xng v tui ca tng ngi.
3.3 Phn tch v din gii d liu

C nhiu cch phn tch d liu:
(a) Chng ta c th tm tng s ln xut hin ca mi h, thy h no ph
bin nht v t ph bin nht. i vi tn cng tng t nh th.
(b) Chng ta c th tm thy tng s ln xut hin mi danh xng, mc ch c
th l tm ra s ngi c bng tin s.
(c) Chng ta c th tm thy tui trung bnh ca mi ngi.
(d) Chng ta c th tm thy tui cao nht v thp nht.
Nhng thng k n gin - tnh tng, tnh trung bnh, tm gi tr cao nht v thp
nht - l cch ph bin nht tm ra ngha no gia mt ng hn n cc con
s. Chng ta cng thng quan tm n nhng thng tin bt thng (v d, tui m
7), bi nhng vng c thng tin sai hay c lm ni bt ln (highlighted).
3.4 Bo co pivot table

d dng v nhanh chng trch thng tin t mt bng trong Excel, chng ta ch cn
bi en (highlight) n, nhn vo tab Insert v sau Pivot Table Report (Bo co
pivot table) trong nhm Tables. Vic ny gip khi ng mt Wizard m trc tin
s yu cu xc nhn v tr d liu bn mun phn tch, ri a ra cc la chn sau:
Pivot tables trn phn tch s tui trung bnh theo danh xng. T pha trn bn
phi ca Pivot Table Wizard, H c ko xung nhn ca hng v Tui c ko
xung nhn ca ct. iu ny quy nh rng H s l hng v Tui s l ct. Sau
, Tui cng c ko vo hp gi tr. u tin, tng ca Tui s c hin th
nhng c th thay i bng cc cch thc khc s dng danh sch th xung hoc
la chn Value Fields Settings v Avarage. Tiu Tng c th c thay i mt
cch th cng.
Vic th nghim mt m hnh n gin nh pivot table l mt phng thc rt c
gi tr phn tch s liu.
224
THO LUN
Cc c tnh no khc ca bng tnh m mi ngi trong nhm bn thy hu ch?
4 V V DIN GII TH
Cc cng thc v hm
s trong bng tnh
and functions)
S dng bng tnh

Trnh by thng tin
bng bng tnh
with spreadsheets)
V v din gii th
(Creating and
Pivot table trong

bng tnh
(Spreadsheet
pivot tables)
4.1 V biu
D liu c th c trnh by bng hnh nh thng qua th. th l cch trnh by
hnh nh ca d liu. Cc th c s dng ph bin nht l biu ct, biu
hnh trn, biu tn s, a gic tn s v biu ng.
Xu hng hin nay l s dng phn mm bng tnh trnh by d liu bng th
hoc biu . Cho d tn gi l g, th vic phn tch mt hnh nh, biu hay th
lun d hn l phn tch mt dy s. iu ny c bit ng khi mt lng ln thng
tin c thu thp. Ngoi ra, mt hnh nh trnh by thng tin cng truyn t thng
tin tt hn l ch c cc s n l, ng nh cu tc ng trm nghe khng bng mt
thy (a picture is worth a thousand words).
Bit cch truyn t thng tin bng th rt quan trng trong vic trnh by cc s
liu thng k. Sau y l mt danh sch cc nguyn tc chung cn ghi nh. Mt
th phi:
(a) n gin v khng qu ln xn.
(b) Trnh by d liu m khng lm thay i thng ip ca d liu.
(c) Ch ra bt c xu hng hoc s thay i no trong d liu mt cch r rng.
(d) Chnh xc khi cm nhn trc quan (nu trn th c mt gi tr bng 15 v
mt gi tr khc bng 30, th gi tr 30 phi c minh ha cao gp i hay
di gp i so vi gi tr 15).
Cng cn bit loi th no c s dng khi trnh by cc s liu thng k. Bn c
th s dng mt vi loi th c trnh by khi qut trang tip theo.
225
e.g.
V D
V TH
Chng ta s s dng v d v Cng ty TNHH Discount Traders di y to ra mt

s th, biu din doanh thu thun (net sales) i vi cc khch hng khc nhau.
Bn hy nhp thng tin vo my t lp th thng qua v d.

Hy ch n cng thc C5 tnh ton mc chit khu 5% ca doanh thu bng
hoc ln hn 1.000 GBP. y cng l ln u tin chng ta s dng hm Logical.
Cng thc l:
= IF(iu kin kim tra, kt qu nu iu kin ng, kt qu nu iu kin sai).
Do , phn chit khu 5% c p dng vi doanh s to ra t nht l 1.000 GBP.
Thng thng, chng ta c th chuyn d liu lp bng trong mt bng tnh thnh
cc loi biu ct hay cc dng hnh nh.
Nhng bc c bn v mt biu trong Excel nh sau:
(a) S dng chut chn khi cha d liu. Trong v d ny, ta chn d liu
tng ng A5 ti A8 v D5 ti D8. Bt u bng vic chn A5:A8 theo
cch thng thng v gi Ctrl, sau chn D5:D8.
(b) Chn tab Insert, nhn vo Charts.
Bc 1 (Step 1 of 4): Chn loi biu thch hp.
Biu ct (bar chart hoc bar graph) c th theo chiu ngang hoc chiu dc.
phn bit hai loi ny, biu theo chiu dc c gi l biu ct. Mt im quan
trng trong biu ct l chiu di cc ct: chiu di cng ln th gi tr cng ln. Biu
ct thch hp so snh cc gi tr.
Nhn n chut vo nt Chart type (Loi biu ) s gip chng ta la chn cc loi
biu con v m t ca loi biu c chn.
226
Nhn n vo kiu Chart (Biu ) s a ra la chn v cc kiu v phn m t

cho cc kiu biu . La chn 2-D Clustered Column, chng ta s c biu nh
di y:
Chui d liu (data series) l mt nhm cc im d liu c lin quan c v trong

mt th, bt ngun t hng hoc ct trong mt trang tnh ring l. Mi chui d liu
trong biu c mu sc hay m hnh c trng. Bn c th v mt hay nhiu chui
d liu trong mt th. Biu hnh trn ch c mt chui d liu. Trong trng hp
ny, ch c duy nht mt dy s liu l doanh thu thun.
Tip theo, t tn tiu biu v nhn trc. La chn tab cng c Layout, sau
nhn vo biu tng m bn mun sa nh Chart title (tiu biu ), Axis title
(nhn trc), Legend...
(a) Title (Tn) - nhp tn th khong trng cho sn
(b) Axes (Trc) - loi (Khch hng) l trc X v gi tr (Doanh thu thun bng
GBP) l trc Y.
(c) Gridlines ( li) - i vi hu ht biu ng, bn s mun hin th
li chnh cho c trc X v trc Y.
(d) Legend (Ch gii) - y la chn ca bn ph thuc vo d liu. ng
227

trnh by hai ch gii. Bng d liu s trnh by mt ch gii, tr khi bn
khng yu cu n lm nh th.
(e) Data labels (Nhn d liu) - ch trnh by nhn d liu khi chng khng lm
biu trng ln xn hn.
(f) Data table (Bng d liu) - trnh by bng d liu nu c khong trng. ng
trnh by bng d liu, nu n lm biu ca bn ln hn mt trang khi in ra
Bc cui cng ny l chn la liu bn mun biu xut hin trn cng trang tnh
vi d liu hay l mt trang khc trong cng bng tnh .
Bn c th thay i bt c lc no bng vic chn th trang workbook (ch nhn
bn trong l trang th).
(a) Bn c th thay i kch c ca th bng vic nhn chn n v ko ng vin.
(b) Bn c th thay i mi thnh phn bng vic nhn p vo chng v chn
t nhiu ty chn khc na.
(c) Bn cng c th chn bt k thnh phn no trong vn bn v thay i cch
din t, kch c, kiu ch, hay thay i mu ch dng.
(d) Biu sau b thay i bng cch nhn p vo trc Y, sau nhn chut
phi v chn Format Axis (nh dng trc) v Number (S), sau thay
i s ch s thp phn t 2 thnh 0.
228

Biu ct rt linh hot v c s dng ph bin nht trnh by d liu t ma
trn a la chn, n la chn hay sp xp theo th t v cc cu hi bng s.
Dng c bit ca biu ct cho php trnh by phn trm trn trc tung. C th biu
din nhiu tp d liu cho mi loi trn trc honh hoc c th chng tp d liu ny
trn nh ca tp d liu khc. Ta cng c th v biu ct quay (rotated bar chart)
c bng cch chuyn v tr ca trc tung v trc honh.
V d trn s dng biu ct trong Excel trnh by d liu. th di y trnh
by d liu ca Cng ty TNHH Discount Traders nh mt th Excel 3-D, ln ny
biu th hin 2 dy s liu l doanh thu v doanh thu thun.
Nh bn bit, c rt nhiu ty chn, bao gm trnh by 3-D, m chng ta c th s

dng vi d liu t Cng ty TNHH Discount Traders. Chng ta cng c th s dng
mt biu hnh trn (pie chart) trnh by d liu.
Mt biu hnh trn thch hp khi d liu dng nh danh (nominal) v s o tn
s, phi th hin t l hoc t l phn trm i vi mi loi. l mt cch hiu qu,
c th nhn thy bng mt v n gin th hin ln tng i ca mt s khon
mc l mt phn ca khon mc ln hn. Hnh di y l biu trn 3-D th hin
phn trm doanh thu thun ca mi ngi.
229

Khi so snh hai tp d liu bng cch s dng biu hnh trn, bn phi chc chn
mu s dng cho mi la chn tr li l ng nht trong mi biu . Theo cch ny,
c th nhanh chng so snh bng mt tng th. Biu hnh trn khng thch hp
cho cu hi c nhiu la chn, bi v mi ngi c th tr li nhiu hn mt la chn
v tng s phn trm la chn s vt qu 100%.
BI TP THC HNH 3
(15 PHT)
Thit lp mt bng tnh vi cc gi tr v tiu sau:

Doanh thu triu GBP
20X3
20X7
Nc chanh
80
120
Cola
90
100
Nc lc
28
160
Hy s dng bng tnh v hai biu hnh trn - mi biu cho mt nm - ch

ra s phn trm to nn doanh thu cho c hai nm. Sao chp hai biu vo mt
file Word
4.2 Biu tn s
Bn nn nh t Chng 2 rng biu tn s l mt biu ct th hin mi quan
h gia gi tr v tn s (s ln xut hin).
Ni chung, cc gi tr c biu din trn trc honh v tn s biu din trn trc
tung. Chiu rng ca ct th hin cc khong cch t, cn chiu cao ca mi ct th
hin tn s trong tng khong cch t. N c s dng cho cc bin lin tc nh
chiu cao v cn nng.
Biu tn s c th cu trc d liu gip n tr nn d hiu v d x l hn. Cho
d vic o lng c thc hin trong qu trnh sn xut ch to hay bt k qu
trnh no khc, cc gi tr o lng c c th khc nhau qua cc ln o. Vn l
chng ta thc hin qu nhiu php o lng, ri li gp vn vi khi lng thng
tin thu thp c. R rng cn cu trc thng tin v c phng php khin thng tin
d qun l hn. Cc phng php ny c bit n l phng php rt gn d
liu (data reduction method) v biu tn s l phng php cu trc d liu
d hiu v d x l hn.
Biu tn s hu ch khi:
(a) Ghi li khong thi gian t lc nhn n hng n khi giao hng.
(b) Xc nh s lng ngy cho n thc s, hay
(c) Ghi li kt qu th nghim sn xut
e.g.
230
V D
BIU TN S
Xem xt s lt xng tiu th ca cc dng xe tng t khi chy 150 dm t London

ti Chesterfield nh sau:
20,1
20,0
19,7
19,4
19,5
19,9
19,3
19,8
19,3
19,4
19,5
19,5
19,6
19,7
19,1
20,2
19,6
19,7
19,0
19,6
19,4
19,2
20,0
19,9
19,8
19,9
19,4
20,1
19,7
19,5
19,6
19,6
20,0
19,8
19,7
20,0
19,9
19,5
19,4
19,9
19,8
19,5

D liu ny khng cho chng ta bit nhiu iu, do chng ta c xu hng tp trung
vo tng s c th m khng thy c tng th. Thay v d liu, chng ta mun
thng tin. bc ny, nu v mt biu tn s bng tay trnh by s lng xng
tiu th, chng ta s gim d liu bng cch s dng bn kim k trong tng gi
tr o c nh du nh khi chng c ghi li, nhng iu ny c th c thc
hin t ng trong Excel.
Bc 1
Chng ta bt u s dng Excel bng vic nhp 42 phn t d liu

(c ch ra trn) vo trong mt bng tnh (tt c trong ct A). y l
Input Range (Vng d liu u vo). Trc khi bt u, chng ta cn
chn vng d liu ny v chc chn c cng c Data Analysis (Phn tch
d liu) trong menu Tools (Cng c). Trong phin bn Excel mi nht,
cng c ny c th tm thy trong tab Data. Nu bn khng th tm thy
Data Analysis, th hy nhn vo mc tr gip (help question mark) v tm
Load the Analysis ToolPak.
Bc 2
Bi v ch c mt vng d liu nh, chng ta khng cn nhm chng li

trc khi phn tch su hn, nhng cn tm ra bin s nh nht v ln
nht - bin ti a v ti thiu - v th c th trnh by d liu trn mt biu
tn s. Chng ta c th lm iu ny theo hai cch:
(i)
Nhn vo tab Data, ri nhn Data Analysis sau l Descriptive Statistics

(Thng k m t). Nhn vo Summary Statistics (Thng k tng kt) v
xc nh Input Range bng vic chn cc cha d liu. Sau nhn
vo Output Range (Vng xut d liu) di Output Options (La chn
xut d liu). Nhn vo hp Output Range s c ch nh trong , sau
xc nh Vng xut d liu bng cch ko con tr t khong D19 ti
E33 v nhn OK. iu ny s cho my tnh bit chng ta mun n ghi li
d liu xut ni no. Bn cn nhiu thng tin v d liu (xem bn di)
bao gm s Ti a v Ti thiu.
Gi tr trung bnh (Mean)
19,65476
Sai s chun (Standard error)
0,043404
Trung v (Median)
Mt (Mode)
19,65
19,5
lch chun (Standard deviation)
0,281288
Phng sai mu (Sample variance)
0,079123
nhn (Kurtosis)
0,43094
231

lch (Skewness)
Khong (Range)
Gi tr ti thiu (Minimum)
Gi tr ti a (Maximum)
S phn t (Count)
(ii)
0.17358
1,2
19
20,2
42
tm MAX v MIN ring bit:
tm MAX, nhn vo mt trng (v d, B2) v nhp cng thc:

=MAX(A1:A42). Khi nhn Enter bn s thy gi tr 20,2 trong .
tm MIN, nhn vo mt trng (v d, C2) v nhp cng thc:
=MIN(A1:A42), bn s thy gi tr 19,0 thp nht.
Bc 3
By gi chng ta phi xc nh khong s dng trn trc X - c

gi l Bin Range. Vi 19,0 (MIN) nhp vo C2, nhn C3 v nhp
cng thc = $C2 + 0,1 v ko gc phi ca xung n C14 khong
i t 19,0 n 20,2.
Bc 4
By gi chng ta c th v biu tn s. Chn ton b min bin s - tt

c 42 bin. Ti tab Data, nhn vo Data Analysis, nhn tip Histogram v
cui cng l OK.
Histogram Wizard s yu cu nhp mt s thng tin. i vi Input Range, chng ta

bt u bin s u tin trong Vng d liu u vo (A1) v ko con tr xung
bin cui (A42). i vi Bin Range, chng ta lm tng t vi vng s s s dng
(C2 - C14). i vi Output Range, chng ta cn ch ra ni no mun hin th tn s.
Ko con tr t E2 n F14 v nhn OK.
Hy chc chn rng con tr trong hp, ni khong yu cu c lu li, trc khi
bn th v ko con tr; nu khng bn s thay i vng bn ch ra hoc khng th
ko c con tr.
La chn Chart Output.
232

Lc ny, bn s thy tn s ca mi bin s trong vng bn chn. Sau s xut
hin mt biu tn s.
Khi th hon thnh, nu mun ni cc ct, bn hy nhn chut phi vo mt trong

cc ct ri nhn Format Data Series (nh dng chui d liu) v Options (La chn).
Gim Gap Width (Chiu rng khong cch) xung bng 0 - v vy s ni cc ct li
vi nhau. th ca bn s trng ging nh di y:
Lng tiu th xng trn 150 dm

7
6
Tn s
5
4
3
2
1
20,2
20,1
20,0
19,9
More
Lt xng
19,8
19,7
19,6
19,5
19,4
19,3
19,2
19,1
19,0
Hy lu bng tnh biu tn s, v ngay sau y chng ta s tham chiu n mt

ln na.
233

Biu tn s c nhiu ng dng:
1 Biu tn s c dng tm ra s bt thng trong phn phi.
Tn s
Bt thng
Gi tr
2 Biu tn s c dng so snh gi tr vi gi tr tiu chun hoc thng

s k thut.
Tn s
Gi tr
Yu cu
thp hn
Yu cu
cao hn
3 Biu tn s c dng nhn din cc nguyn nhn bin thin (hy nhn
vo hnh dng ca biu tn s).
B lch
Hai nh
Tn s
Tn s
Gi tr
Gi tr
Yu cu
thp hn
234
Yu cu
cao hn
Yu cu
thp hn
Yu cu
cao hn
4.3 a gic tn s
a gic tn s phc v mc ch ging nh biu tn s v c v bng vic ni
cc im gia ca cc ct trong biu tn s bng nhng on thng.
a gic tn s c th c mt vi hnh dng. th trong cc im chm vo mt
im cui u ny hoc u kia ca trc honh c cho l b lch (khng i xng).
lch ca mt th xc nh bng hng ui ca n. Nu cc im chm li
u gi tr cao, th s c lch m (negative skew). Nu cc im chm li
u gi tr thp, th s c lch dng (positive skew). Phn phi c gi l
chun (hay hnh chung), nu cc im chm li gia v ko di sang hai bn to
thnh hnh chung cn i. Cui cng, phn phi c gi l u, nu cc im c
phn b mt cch u n trn th.
V D
A GIC TN S
v a gic tn s t mt biu tn s, hy nhn chut phi vo biu hon

thnh trong bng tnh v chn Select Data (Chn d liu). Nhn vo Add (Thm)
di hp Series (Chui). By gi bn c Series 2. Xa hp Name (Tn) v nhp Bin
Range t bng tnh ca bn. Xa hp Values (Gi tr) v nhp chi tit tn s.
Khi nhn Finish hoc OK bn s thy c hai chui biu ct. Nhn chut phi vo
mt trong cc ct ca biu sau cng v chn Chart Type (Loi biu ) hoc
Change Series Chart Type (Thay i loi biu ). Nhn vo Line bn s thy hnh
hai biu trong mt nh di y:
Lng tiu th xng trn 150 dm

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
20,2
20,1
20,0
More
Lt xng
19,9
19,8
19,7
19,6
19,5
19,4
19,3
19,2
19,1
0
19,0
Tn s
e.g.
235
4.4 Biu tn s phn t

i vi mt s d liu, c bit khi chnh lch gia bin s cao nht v thp nht
ln hn 15, bn s thch dng mt phn phi tn s phn t (grouped frequency
distribution) hn. Cc bin s c phn thnh cc t, v tn s ca mi khong cch
t c lit k cc ct ring bit. Cc khong cch t c th c kch thc bt k,
nhng d cu trc, mt phn phi tn s phn t khng nn c nhiu hn mi
t. Loi phn phi ny cung cp thng tin t chnh xc hn mt phn phi khng phn
t, v cc im ring l b mt i. Tuy nhin, u im l mt ngi c th hiu bt k
xu hng no trong d liu ngay khi nhn vo.
e.g.
V D
BIU TN S PHN T
Di y l mt danh sch s DVD do 23 thnh vin ca mt nhm sinh vin s hu.

43, 15, 52, 24, 84, 36, 75, 70, 98, 44, 56, 48, 41, 38, 7, 62, 49, 32, 71, 25, 46, 58.
Nhp d liu vo bng tnh ca bn. Bng vic nhn lt qua d liu hay thc hin
Summary Statistics (Thng k tng hp), chng ta c th thy gi tr ti thiu l 7 v
ti a l 98. Nu chng ta nhm d liu vo trong cc khong 10 n v, bt u bng
9 v kt thc bng 99, mi khong ny s l Bin Range.
Tip tc nh trc bng cch nhn vo Tools/Data Analysis v Histogram, xc nh
Input data (vng d liu nhp) v Bin Range c tn s. Sau bn c th th v
Biu ct (Column Chart) cho cc d liu vi tn s tng ng. Khi hon thnh biu
, bn hy xa b khong cch gia cc ct nh trc .
BI TP THC HNH 4
(10 PHT)
Biu phn phi s hu DVD c hnh dng nh th no? iu g lm cho phn phi
c lch dng, c lch m hay phn phi u?
236
4.5 Biu ng
Biu hnh trn, biu tn s v a gic tn s rt hu ch biu din d liu tn
s; biu ng (line graph) rt hu ch trnh by mi thay i qua mt khong
thi gian. Biu ng l mt cch tng hp li xem hai thng tin c mi lin
quan vi nhau nh th no v chng thay i ph thuc vo thng tin cn li nh th
no. Trc honh thng th hin mt khong thi gian, cn trc tung biu din lng
thay i. iu cc k quan trng l bin s v trn trc x (v d, thi gian) gia tng u
gia cc gi tr, cho d bn chn th X-Y hoc th phn tn.
Biu ng c th s dng i vi cc d liu t s, khong hay s th t. Biu
ng khng phi bt u t 0. Mt s th bt u t 0, nhng cc th khc
bt u bng s gn nht vi gi tr thp nht c ghi li. V d, nu bn ang ghi
li nhit hng ngy vo ma h thng thng, th s u tin trn trc honh ca
th c th l 65 F ch khng phi l 0.
Nh chng ta nhn thy, biu ng trong Excel c th s dng thay th
biu tn s vi tn s c v tr s gia ca mi t v cc on thng c s
dng ni cc tr s gia. y khng phi l vn vi loi d liu s dng trong
v d tip theo.
e.g.
V D
BIU NG
T kho st v s ng gi ca mt on tu c th, mt bo co lu s thi gian

tu xut pht mun t nh ga. Kt qu c ch ra di y:
Thng 9
Thng 10
Thng 11
13
Thng 12
20
Thng 1
21
Thng 2
23
Thng 3
15
Thng 4
13
Thng 5
Thng 6
Thng 7
Thng 8
to biu ny bng Excel, hy nhp d liu vo bng tnh ca bn. Nhn vo tab
Insert v chn Line chart. Biu di y s dng kiu th ph vi ng thng
m cc im c trnh by mi gi tr d liu.
237

C th thy mt vi thng tin t biu ny. V d:
S ln tu chm trong thng 11.

Hai thng c s ln tu chm gia tng nhiu nht.
Hai thng c s ln tu chm bng nhau.
S khc nhau gia thng c s ln tu chm nhiu nht v thng c s ln
tu chm t nht.
th X-Y
Mt th x-y c to ra minh ha mi quan h gia hai bin s biu th cho cc
cp d liu (x,y). Hy lun v bin s c lp trn trc x v bin s ph thuc trc
y. Ch d liu o lng theo thang khong (interval) hoc t l (ratio) mi c
v th theo kiu ny, v c hai trc u l bin lin tc.
e.g.
V D
TH X-Y
Chng ta s v th minh ha gi ca mt xe ti ang c cho bn theo s dm

ng i gia tng trn ng h. Bn cn nhp cc chi tit sau vo bng tnh:
Gi tr
S dm i c n v nghn
14.000
12.000
20
8.000
40
5.000
60
4.000
80
3.400
100
2.900
120
Nhn vo tab Insert v chn XY (Scatter), sau l loi th ph (sub-chart) vi

ng thng trn m khng c cc im.
Gi xe ti so vi s dm i
Gi xe theo
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
S dm i (n v: 1000 dm)
Biu ng ch ra rng xe ti mi c gi 14.000 GBP. S dm i cng nhiu th gi

ca n cng gim nh minh ha trn th. Gi ca n ri xung 2.000 GBP
20.000 dm u tin m n i. Khi s dm i l 80.000, gi ca xe ti khong 4.000 GBP.
238

ng cong
ng cong (ogive) l mt biu ng c to ra bng cch tch ly cc d
liu t trong mt a gic tn s. Nu quay li v d v DVD, c th thm mt ct vo
bng tnh ni chng ta tnh ton tn s tch ly bng tay. Mt khi tn s ny c
tnh, chng ta c th v mt biu ng s dng d liu tn s tch ly trong hp
Data Range.
ng cong pha trn c to ra bng cch s dng Scattergraph vi kiu biu

th hin mt ng cong trn.
4.6 Biu phn tn (XY) v ng xu th tuyn tnh

Mt biu phn tn (biu im) rt ging vi biu ng. N cho php bn
nghin cu cc mi quan h gia hai bin s v gip ngi xem nh gi mi quan
h nhn qu gia chng. V d, c th c mt mi quan h tng quan gia chiu
cao con ngi v c giy ca h. D liu kt ni hai bin s ny l d liu hai chiu
(bivariate). Mc d n khng ni cho bn bit bt c iu g c th suy ra t con s
trong bng kt qu, nhng mt hnh nh trc quan tt thng lm cho vic ny d
dng hn.
Biu phn tn (scatter graph) c th c s dng minh ha trc quan
tng quan gia hai yu t ca d liu. Khi cc nh khng hnh thnh mt xu
hng no c, th chng ta c th ni khng c hoc c rt t mi tng quan gia
cc yu t ca d liu. Khi cc nh kt ni vi nhau khng cht ch, chng ta ni
rng c mi tng quan yu gia cc yu t ca d liu. iu ny c ngha l c
mt mi quan h khng r rng gia hai yu t ca d liu.
Khi cc nh t nhiu hnh thnh nn mt ng ging nh ng thng, chng ta ni
rng c tng quan mnh gia hai yu t ca d liu. iu ny c ngha l hai yu
t c mi quan h cht ch vi nhau.
Yu t 1
Yu t 1
Tng quan yu
Yu t 2
Tng quan
dng mnh
Yu t 2
239

Tng quan gia cc d liu c th dng hoc m, ph thuc vo dc chung
ca cc im.
ng xu th (hay ng xu hng)
Nu cc im ca biu phn tn nm trn mt di hp - v d c tng quan mnh
gia hai yu t ca d liu - th c th v mt ng xu th (line of best fit) ch ra xu
hng tng quan bng th. Mt ng xu th c th thng hoc cong. N mang
tnh xp x hoc c tnh - v c th i qua hu ht cc im hoc cc im gn nh
phn tn u n pha ny hay pha kia ca ng thng. Nu c mt tng quan
hon ho gia hai yu t ca d liu, th tt c cc im s nm trn mt ng
thng. Nu tng quan khng tht s chnh xc, th ng xu th s ph thuc vo
dc chung ca cc im phn tn trn th.
Ch !
C mt chm ngn trong thng k l Tng quan khng hn phn nh mi quan h
nhn qu. Theo cch khc, cc im phn tn c th ch ra rng mt mi quan h
tn ti, nhng khng th chng minh rng mt bin s l nguyn nhn gy ra bin s
cn li. C th c yu t th ba tham gia vo v nh hng ti c hai bin s trc,
hay mt vi nguyn nhn c tnh h thng, hoc mi quan h r rng th y c th ch
l mt s ngu nhin. Du vy, biu phn tn c th em n cho bn mt manh
mi rng hai yu t c th lin quan vi nhau v t thy c cch thc chng
kt hp cng nhau.
e.g.
V D
TO BIU PHN TN V NG XU TH BNG EXCEL
Trong v d ny, d liu chng ta s s dng l kt qu kim tra ca 20 sinh vin.

V d a ra thng tin v s gi sinh vin hc cho bi kim tra. Chng ta s th
xc nh xem liu s gi hc c tng quan tuyn tnh mnh vi kt qu kim tra
hay khng.
im kim tra v s gi hc ca sinh vin
240
Sinh vin
Gi hc
im kim tra
54
10
56
63
64
12
62
61
10
63
12
73
15
78
10
12
72
11
12
78
12
20
83
13
16
83
14
14
86
15
22
83
16
18
81

17
30
88
18
21
87
19
28
89
20
24
93
Tt c cc biu phn tn yu cu hai chui d liu tng xng vi nhau. Nhp cc

d liu tng ng vo ct gn k trong bng tnh ca bn.
Chn tt c cc gi tr d liu (b qua s th t sinh vin). Nhn vo tab Insert, chn
biu scatter vi cc im nh du cho Chart sub-type ( th ph).
Thm mt ng xu hng
t con tr vo mt trong cc im d liu v nhn chut phi.
Nhn vo Add Trend line (Thm ng xu hng) v chn loi c nhn l Linear
(Tuyn tnh). Nhn Options Tab. Nhn Display Equation (Hin th Cng thc) trong
Chart Box (Hp th) v OK.
Phng trnh cho ng thng dng y = mx + b, vi m l h s gc ca ng
thng v b l h s chn (giao im ca ng thng vi trc y).
im kim tra ca sinh vin v gi hc
120
y = 1,4429x + 53,062
im kim tra
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
Gi hc
241

C mt xu hng r rng trong th ny; cc im hnh thnh mt ng thng
cho trn th. Sinh vin dnh nhiu thi gian hc hn th t kt qu kim tra cao
hn. Tt c cc im u gn ng thng, v th c s tng quan tuyn tnh.
th i ln t tri sang phi, cho thy tng quan dng; ngc li ng thng i
xung t tri qua phi ch ra tng quan m. Mc d bt k ngi xem no cng c
th thy r xu hng trc khi thm vo ng xu hng, nhng vic nh lng
mi quan h c th c thc hin khi chn thm ng xu hng vo th.
BI TP THC HNH 5
(15 PHT)
Din gii th im kim tra v s gi hc ca sinh vin trn bng cch tr li cc

cu hi sau:
(a) Bn m t tng quan gia im kim tra v s gi hc nh th no?
(b) Phng trnh ca ng xu th l g?
(c) H s gc ca ng xu th l g?
(d) H s chn ca ng xu th l g?
(e) H s chn cho bn bit iu g?
(f) S dng ng xu hng trn biu phn tn, c tnh im ca sinh vin
hc 25 gi.
(g) S dng phng trnh ca ng xu th, tnh s im m mt sinh vin hc
25 gi c th t c.
Tng kt v ng xu th
Mt vi ng xu th n gin hn c lit k di y; cc mi quan h phc tp
hn c th l s kt hp ca hai hay nhiu hn cc xu hng ny. Nh rng chnh
vic phn tch nhng ng xu th ny v gii thch chng s cung cp cho chng ta
nhng thng tin cn thit.
th ng thng (tuyn tnh)
y
242
ng thng i qua gc ta
y tng vi mt t l khng i
y t l thun vi x
Phng trnh: y = mx
H s gc dng, m
y tng vi mt t l khng i
y t l thun vi x cng vi mt hng s
Phng trnh: y = mx + b
H s gc m, m
y gim vi mt t l khng i
y t l thun vi x cng vi mt hng s
Phng trnh: y = mx + b (m l s m)
y khng ph thuc vo gi tr ca x, tc y l
hng s
Phng trnh: y = b
y tng vi t l ngy cng tng

Phng trnh c th l: y = mx2, y = mx3,
V d, y t l vi x bnh phng
y tng vi mt t l ngy cng gim

Phng trnh c th: y = a m(x b)2
y gim vi mt t l ngy cng tng

Phng trnh c th: y = a mx2
y gim vi mt t l ngy cng gim

Phng trnh c th: y = m/x,
V d, y l t l nghch vi x
y c gi tr cc tiu
Phng trnh c th: y = a + m(x b)2
th cong (khng tuyn tnh)

y
243
y c gi tr cc i
Phng trnh c th: y = a m(x b)2
4.7 Bng tnh cha nhiu trang tnh

cc gi bng tnh trc y, mt file bng tnh bao gm mt trang tnh. Excel cung
cp la chn bng tnh c nhiu trang tnh (multi-sheet spreadsheets), bao gm mt
chui cc trang tnh lin quan.
V d, gi s bn ang to mt d bo li nhun cho hai vng v mt d bo kt hp
ca c hai vng ny. Tnh hung ny ph hp s dng cc trang tnh ring bit
cho mi vng v mt trang tnh cho c hai vng. Phng php ny i khi c quy
nh lm vic trong ba chiu (three dimensions), v bn c th lt gia cc trang tnh
khc nhau xp chng ng trc hoc ng sau. Mt trong trang tnh ny c th
tham chiu ti trong mt trang tnh khc. Excel c mt chui tab chn ca bng
tnh, mi tab cho mt trang tnh.
Excel c th c thit lp n lun m mt file mi vi mt s lng trang tnh, sn

sng cho bn lm vic. Nhn vo nt Microsoft Office gc trn bn tri, sau nhn
vo Excel Options. Trong tab Popular, di mc When creating new workbooks,
trong hp Include this many sheets, nhp vo s trang m bn mun c.
Nu mun chn nhiu trang tnh, bn ch cn nhn chut phi vo tab ngay sau
ni bn mun v chn Insert (Chn) ri chn Worksheet (Trang tnh). Bi v cc
trang tnh mc nh c gi l Sheet 1, Sheet 2, Tuy nhin, c th thay i cc
tn ny. thay tn mt bng tnh trong Excel, nhn chut phi vo tab ch mc
ca n v la ty chn thay tn. n gin bn c th nh tn mi vo trong tab.
Khi xy dng mt bng tnh cha nhiu trang tnh vi cu trc ging nhau, ngi
dng thng thit lp mt trang tnh, sau copy v sa ni dung trang. iu ny c
th thc hin bng cch nhn vo bt k no trong bng tnh, chn Edit (Chnh sa),
Move (Di chuyn) hoc Copy (Sao chp) trang tnh, sau nhn vo hp Create a
Copy (To mt bn sao). Mt trang tng s s dng cu trc tng t, nhng s
cha cng thc tng hp t cc trang tnh ring l.
Cng thc trong mt trang tnh c th tham chiu ti d liu trong mt trang tnh
khc. Mi lin kt trong mt cng thc nh vy c th c thit lp thng qua cc
bc sau y:
Bc 1
Trong bn mun tham chiu n t mt trang khc, nhp du bng =.
Bc 2
Nhn vo tab ch mc ca trang cha bn mun tham chiu v chn ny.
Bc 3
Nhn Enter hoc Return.
Chng ta s nghin cu mt v d n gin. Bt u bng mt bng tnh trng v

chc chn n cha t nht ba trang tnh.
244

Tng cng ty A1 thuc trang 1, Chi nhnh 1 A1 thuc trang 2 v Chi nhnh
2 A1 thuc trang 3.
Nhp 5.000 vo A2 thuc trang 2 v 7.000 vo A2 thuc trang 3.
La chn tab cho trang th nht v la chn A2 trong trang ny (y l bc 1 trong
3 bc trn). Nhp =. Chn trang 2, nhn vo A2 v g +. Sau chn trang 3 v
nhn vo A2. Tng ca 2 chi nhnh s xut hin A2 thuc trang 1. Tuy nhin,
ni dung tht s cha trong A1 ca trang th nht l cng thc = Sheet2!A2 +
Sheet3!A2
Cc A2 thuc trang 2 v 3 by gi c lin kt vi A2 ca trang th nht.
Phng php ny c th c s dng khng quan tm n a ch hai khng
phi cng mt ni trong trang tnh ring ca chng. V d, Z658 ca mt trang
tnh c th tham chiu ti P24 ca trang tnh khc. Nu bn dch chuyn hay
chn thm hng hoc ct vo trang tnh vi s gc, tham chiu ca trang tnh khc
cng s t ng thay i.
C nhiu trng hp ph hp vi phng php s dng nhiu trang tnh. Cc trng
hp c th nh sau:
(a) Mt m hnh c th s dng mt trang cho cc bin s, trang th hai tnh
ton v trang th ba xut d liu.
(b) d dng v nhanh chng hp nht cc chui d liu ging nhau, v d kt
qu ti chnh ca hai cng ty chi nhnh hoc bng k ngn sch ca hai b
phn khc nhau.
(c) Cho thy nhng kha cnh khc nhau ca cng mt d liu. V d, bn c
th sp xp mt trang d liu theo m sn phm v mt trang khc theo tn
sn phm.
CH DN
Chng ta s v mt vi th trong chng tip theo khi chun b mt bi thuyt
trnh kinh doanh v mt bo co kinh doanh chnh thc.
TNG KT CHNG
Bng tnh l mt trang in t c chia thnh hng v ct.
Trong chng ny, chng ta xem xt mt vi cng thc v hm trong bng

tnh bao gm: Left, Right v Mid, Lookup v Pivot table.
Chng ta nghin cu v cc loi th s dng bng tnh - biu ct, biu

hnh trn, biu tn s, biu ng v rt ra kt lun da vo thng tin
thu c.
Chng ta nghin cu mt vi cch s dng bng tnh trong thc t.
245
CU HI N TP
1 K tn ba hm trong Excel.
2 Khi no bn s dng hm Left, Right v Mid trong Excel?
3 Hm Lookup l g ?
4 Pivot table l g?
P N CU HI N TP
1 C nhiu hm chn: SUM, AVERAGE, MAX, MIN, STDEV, IF v COUNT.
2 Bn s s dng hm Left, Right, Mid trch xut cc k t c th t d liu
nhp vo mt . Hm Left trch xut mt hoc nhiu k t u tin; hm Mid trch
xut t cc k t gia v hm Right trch xut cc k t cui .
3 Hm Lookup cho php bn nhp d liu tng ng vi gi tr ca mt trong ct
v tr v d liu hng tng ng trong mt ct khc.
4 Pivot table l mt bng tng tc tng hp v phn tch d liu t danh sch v
bng biu.
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 (a) Bng tnh ging nh mt trang in t c chia thnh cc hng
v ct. Bng tnh gip thc hin tnh ton cc con s d dng. c tnh ch
yu ca bng tnh l, mt khi c thit lp, bt k mt gi tr no thay i
u t ng ko theo s thay i ca cc gi tr khc.
(b) Mt trong nm ng dng sau (mc d bn c th ngh ra cc ng dng hu
ch khc):
(i) D on dng tin
(ii) Bng cn i k ton
(iii) D bo li nhun
(iv) D bo doanh s
(v) S ci
(vi) Bo co hng tn kho
(vii) c tnh chi ph cng vic
(c) (hay vng ) s thay i bi d liu nhp vo bng chut hay bn phm.
(d) (i) Text c th l d liu vn bn hay d liu s, v d ngy
trong thng, m khng th s dng trong tnh ton.
246

(ii) Gi tr s c th s dng trong tnh ton.
(iii) Cng thc thc hin trn cc khc trong trang tnh v thc hin vic
tnh ton vi chng. V d, nu B4 phi cha tng ca B2 v B3, c
th nhp cng thc =B2+B3.
2 (a) =MID(A1,4,1) v tr bt u l 4 bi v gch ni gia 2 v D v tr 3.
(b) =LEFT(A1,2)
3
4 y l phn phi chun (hoc hnh chung). Nu nhiu ngi s hu t 70-90

v rt t ngi s hu t 0-20 DVD, th phn phi s c lch m. Nu nhiu
ngi s hu 0-20 v ch t ngi s hu 70-90 DVD, th phn phi s c
lch dng. c mt phn phi u, s lng DVD cho mi khong phi
bng nhau.
5 (a) C mt mi tng quan mnh gia im s v s gi hc.
(b) Phng trnh ca ng xu th l y = 1,4429x + 53,062.
(c) H s gc l m = 1,4429.
(d) H s chn l 53,062.
(e) H s chn d bo l mt sinh vin khng hc g c s t s im lm trn 53.
(f) S dng th, c tnh s im ca mt sinh vin hc 25 gi l 85.
(g) S dng phng trnh ng xu th, mt sinh vin hc 25 gi c th nhn
c s im l 1,4429 x 25 + 53,062 = 89.
247
GHI CH CUI CHNG
248
Chng
07
Bo co
Vit bo co
(Report writing)
S dng phn mm
x l vn bn
(Using word processing
software)
Bo co
(Reporting)
Vit bo co s dng
Microsoft Word
(Report using
Microsoft Word)
Thuyt trnh s dng

PowerPoint
(Presentations using
PowerPoint)
Thuyt trnh
kinh doanh
(Business
presentations)
Gii thiu
Sau khi hon thnh tt c cc k hoch, nghin cu v phn tch, gi y c th bn
thy mnh ang i mt vi mt nhim v kh khn nht, l vit mt bo co kinh
doanh chnh thc v son tho mt bi thuyt trnh kinh doanh, s dng nhng phn
mm v k thut thch hp truyn ti thng tin mt cch hiu qu v thuyt phc.
Chng ny s gip bn lm quen vi mt s k nng c th, gn lin vi vic vit
v thuyt trnh bo co.
Chng ta s xem xt Microsoft Word v PowerPoint, ng thi nghin cu cc k thut
m bn cn s dng hon thnh bn bo co v vn kinh doanh ca mnh.
Mc tiu bi hc
Vit mt bo co kinh doanh chnh thc.
Bit cch s dng phn mm x l vn bn vit mt bo co.
Son tho mt bi thuyt trnh kinh doanh.
S dng nhng phn mm v k thut ph hp truyn ti thng tin mt
cch hiu qu v thuyt phc.
249
1 VIT BO CO
Vit bo co
(Report writing)
S dng phn mm
x l vn bn
software)
Bo co
(Reporting)
Vit bo co s dng
Microsoft Word
(Report using
Microsoft Word)
Thuyt trnh s dng

PowerPoint
PowerPoint)
Thuyt trnh
kinh doanh
(Business
presentations)
1.1 Bo co
Sau khi phn tch d liu kho st, n lc bn lp mt bo co kt qu. C s cho
nh dng ca bo co khng ch ph thuc vo i tng c bo co bn hng
ti, m cn ph thuc vo mc phc tp v chi tit cn thit minh chng kt
lun ca bn na. Gim c iu hnh i hi mc chi tit khc vi nhng cn b
qun l trc tip; v vy, t kt qu cao nht, bn cn xem xt ai s l ngi nhn
bo co, t to ra bo co p ng nhu cu ring ca h.
Nhng bo co trc quan, nh mt ti liu HTML hay bi thuyt trnh trn phn mm
Microsoft PowerPoint, ph hp vi nhng kt lun n gin. Lp bo co ha l
cch tt nht khi ti liu c t ch nhng li nhiu th v biu . Cc bo co ny
ph hp vi vic kim tra nhanh hn l nghin cu chi tit v hu ht cc kt lun
u r rng, v th him khi cn gii trnh chi tit. i vi ch phc tp hn, c th
s dng phn mm Microsoft Word hay Adobe Acrobat lp bo co chi tit. Nhng
bo co c to bng phn mm Word thng cha nhiu thng tin chi tit hn,
vi cc kt qu nghin cu c gii trnh rt k v thng c nghin cu trong
mt thi gian di v kh chi tit.
D bn s dng bt k loi bo co no, hy lun nh rng thng tin c th c trnh
by hiu qu hn bng hnh nh ha so vi vn bn hay bng biu. Xu hng, m
hnh thng r rng hn v ni dung xut s t hiu qu hn khi c trnh by
mt cch trc quan. Chng hn khi cn so snh cu tr li ca mt s nhm ngi
khc nhau, cch tt nht l trnh by mt biu vi cu tr li ca mi nhm c
t cnh nhau. Vic so snh ny cho php ngi c thy ngay s khc bit m bn
mun nhn mnh v nhng kt lun ca bn s c chng minh tt hn.
Trong phn u ca bo co, bn nn nu mc tiu kho st v phng php ly
mu. iu ny s gip ngi c hiu mc ch ca cuc kho st v bn c th
trnh c nhiu cu hi nm ngoi nhng mc tiu ban u. Bo co ca bn nn
m t v phng php ly mu, bao gm cc thng tin nh ai l ngi c mi
tham d, thi gian tin hnh thu thp kt qu v bt c vn g lin quan n i
tng iu tra. Tip theo, bn nn a ra phn tch v kt lun chi tit p ng
250
Chng 7: Bo co
yu cu ca ngi c, km theo mt bng biu hay th cho mi mc quan trng
v gii thch v sao y l nhng vn nn c ch . Sau phn phn tch, bn
nn a ra xut lin quan n mc tiu ca cuc kho st. Nhng xut c th
ch n gin nh l tin hnh nhng nghin cu su hn c mt thay i quan
trng trong nh hng ca cng ty.
Trong mi trng hp, nhng xut ca bn phi nm trong phm vi ca mc tiu
cuc kho st v c minh chng bi d liu thu thp c. Cui cng, bn c th
km theo mt bn sao phiu iu tra v mt bng tm tt tt c d liu thu thp
nh mt ph lc cho bo co.
1.2 Bo co chnh thc l g?

Bo co chnh thc (formal report) l bo co dnh cho ngi c mc tiu c th.
Mc ch ca bo co l tr li nhng cu hi ca ngi no . c th l qun
l hay Gim c ca mt doanh nghip, hoc l mt nhm ngi c d kin.
C hai loi bo co chnh thc c kh nng c yu cu nhiu nht trong mi
trng kinh doanh.
(a) Bo co phn tch (analytical report) tp trung vo vic kim tra nhng s
kin, t chc, tnh hung, vn v quy trnh. Thng thng, mc ch ca
nhng bo co ny l cung cp cho ngi c thng tin c th c s dng
ra quyt nh v tin hnh hnh ng tip theo.
(b) Bo co khoa hc/Bo co thc tin (practical/scientific report) l bo
co thut li nhng g xy ra trong mt tnh hung th nghim, mt cuc
hp thc t hay mt phn ca cuc th nghim.
Trong mt bo co chnh thc, c s khc bit v vn phong gia bo co chuyn
mn hay hc thut. Ngoi ra, ngn ng trong bo co cng c s khc bit vi ngn
ng m bn s dng khi ni chuyn, gi th in t cho bn b hoc ng nghip.
Cho d bo co c lp mt ln hay thng xuyn, ngi yu cu bo co c
ngha v nu r bo co s c s dng lm g. Ni cch khc, mc ch ca
bo co phi r rng i vi c ngi vit v ngi s dng. Ngi vit bo co cng
c ngha v truyn t thng tin mt cch khch quan. Ngi vit bo co nm ni
dung chnh ca bo co r hn ngi s dng bo co (nu khng th ngay t u
khng c nhu cu lp bo co). iu quan trng l thng tin ny nn c truyn
t mt cch khch quan ngi s dng bo co c th a ra nh gi ca ring
h. Bo co phi bao gm:
(a) Nhng gi nh, nh gi v xut c ngi vit bo co nu r rng.
(b) Nhng vn khng c qu coi trng hay c b qua trong bo co v
c xem l khng thch ng cng cn c lm r (khng cn nh gi
vic la chn mang tnh khch quan nh th no);
(c) D kin thc t v kt qu cn tng xng vi nhau;
(d) Mt kt lun chc chn, nu c th. Bo co cng nn lm r cch thc v
l do a ra kt lun.
251

Nhng yu t ca mt bo co chnh thc c trnh by trong bng di y:
NHNG YU T CA MT BO CO CHNH THC
Tiu
Ch ca bo co
Phm vi tham chiu
Lm r nhng vn c yu cu
Gii thiu
Phn chnh
Ngi lp bo co v ngi nhn bo co

Cch thu thp thng tin
Chia thnh cc phn vi tiu nhm h tr ngi
c bo co
Th t hp l
Kt lun
xut
Tm tt cc kt qu
Da vo thng tin v bng chng
C th c kt hp vi kt lun
Ch k
Ca ngi vit
Tm tt bo co
Tit kim thi gian cho ngi qun l khi nhn mt

bo co di
Khng di hn mt trang giy
252
Chng 7: Bo co
Mt v d v bo co chnh thc ngn gn c trnh by di y.
BO CO V XUT CP NHT S TAY

NI QUY CNG TY
Gi:
T:
Tnh trng:
Ngy:
Ban Gim c, Cng ty TNHH BCD

J Thurber, Cng ty t vn qun l OPUS
Bo mt
03 thng 10 nm 20X8
I GII THIU V PHM VI THAM CHIU

Bo co ny trnh by chi tit nhng kt qu ca mt cuc iu tra c y
quyn bi Ban Gim c ngy 07 thng 09 nm 20X8. Chng ti c
yu cu xem xt kh nng ng dng ca s tay ni quy cng ty v xut v
nhng thay i cn thit s tay ny ph hp vi thc tin.
II PHNG PHP
Cc th tc kim tra c p dng:
1 Phng vn tt c nhn vin cao cp lin quan n vic s dng s tay ni
quy cng ty trong b phn ca h.
2 Quan st vic thc hin ni quy mi b phn.
III KT QU
Ln cp nht s tay mi nht c thc hin cch y mi nm. Theo quan
st ca chng ti, hin nay cn sa i nhng iu sau:
1 Phn ni quy v s dng my tnh nn c sa i. iu ny lin quan
n vic lu tr an ton bng a cng vn khng cn ph hp na, v
hin nay, d liu c lu tr trn mt my ch. Ngoi ra, s tay khng
quy nh ni quy v email ca cng ty.
2 Chnh sch v c hi bnh ng cn c b sung.
3 Danh sch m trong s tay ni quy cng ty hin nay rt li thi. Mt s
trung tm chi ph v trung tm li nhun c lp cch y mi nm;
m cho nhng b phn ny khng c ghi trong s tay;
4 Khng cp n iu khon v o lut bo v d liu trong khi chng
lin quan n cng ty.
IV KT LUN
Thng qua vic phng vn nhn vin, chng ti bit c rng s tay ni quy
ca cng ty t c s dng. C th s dng s tay ny, sau khi sa li theo
cc xut trn; do chng ti ngh cng ty nn thc hin cng sm
cng tt.
J Thurber k, Cng ty t vn qun l OPUS
Mt bo co chnh thc nh vy s c x l bng chng trnh Word. Chng
ta s xem xt k mt vi cng c hu dng ca Microsoft Word khi vit mt bo co
chnh thc trong hai phn tip theo.
253
BI TP THC HNH 1
(5 PHT)
Bn c th ngh ra hai mc ch cho mt bo co chnh thc hay khng.
1.3 Hng ti c gi
Ngi vit bo co phi bit nhu cu v kh nng ca ngi c bo co. Hy cn
thn vi nhng bit ng (jargon), thut ng qu mang tnh chuyn mn v nhng
kin thc chuyn mn m ngi c bo co c th khng hiu c. Hy dng
nhng t ng, cu trc cu v on vn n gin nht c th, gii thch r rng
cc vn m vn lm hi lng ngi c c trnh . Hy lun ghi nh kiu thng
tin v mc chi tit ngi c quan tm, ng thi nhng thng tin ny phi lin
quan n mc ch ca h. Trong bi cnh kinh doanh, i tng c c th t cp
qun l cao cp n cp gim st c s, n cp khng qun l (nh trong bin bn
cuc hp hay bn tin chung) n nhng ngi bn ngoi (khch hng, bo ch v.v).
Ngn t, c php v cch trnh by ca bn, s lng thng tin chi tit m bn c th
trnh by, vn chuyn mn bn c th nu v cu trc ca bo co c th b nh
hng bi nhng vn nh vy.
Mt bo co vi y thng tin, nghin cu v trnh by tt vn c th khng
c s dng, nu ngi vit khng a ra bo co ny vo ng thi im. Vic
trnh by bo co s khng nh hng n quyt nh, khi m quyt nh c
a ra vo lc bo co hon thnh. Do phi nm c thi im lp bo co v
khong thi gian m ngi c s dng bo co.
2 S DNG PHN MM X L VN BN
Vit bo co
(Report writing)
S dng phn mm
x l vn bn
software)
Bo co
(Reporting)
Vit bo co s dng
Microsoft Word
(Report using
Microsoft Word)
Thuyt trnh s dng

PowerPoint
PowerPoint)
Thuyt trnh
kinh doanh
(Business
presentations)
2.1 Gii thiu

Ngy nay, nhiu thng tin s dng trong cng tc qun l c phn tch hay c
trnh by vi phn mm x l vn bn hay bng tnh.
254
Chng 7: Bo co
NH NGHA
Phn mm x l vn bn (word processing software) c th gip bn s dng my vi tnh to
mt vn bn; lu tr vn bn dng in t, hin th vn bn trn mn hnh, hiu chnh vn bn
bng cch nhp cc lnh, k t t bn phm v in vn bn bng my in.
Trong phn ny, chng ti s trnh by mt s chc nng c bn ca Microsoft
Word - phn mm x l vn bn ph bin nht. Nu c t kinh nghim v phn mm
ny, bn nn thc hnh phn ny nhiu ln trn mt my tnh c sn chng trnh
Microsoft Word. Cn nu bn cm thy d dng s dng cc cng c cn bn ca
gi phn mm, th hy b qua phn ny v tip tc phn tip theo.
Sau khi thun thc phn ny, bn c th mun th nhng chc nng khc ca
phn mm x l vn bn - hy khm ph cng c H tr trc tuyn ca Microsoft
Word (menu Help ca Word) c hng dn chi tit.
2.2 M file trong Microsoft Word

Micrsoft Word c m bng cch nhn p chut vo biu tng Word hay chn
Microsoft Word t menu Start (c th trong ty chn Microsoft Office). Khi Word
sn sng, bn s thy mt vn bn trng. m vn bn c sn, bn chn File,
Open t menu chnh. Trong phin phn word mi, bn chn nt Microsoft Office
gc tri pha trn
, sau chn Open.
Ti liu c b tr gia mn hnh. Pha trn ti liu l thanh cng c (toolbar), gm

nhng nt cng c phc v cho nhng chc nng khc nhau. Trong phin bn Word
mi, nu bn con tr mt nt trn thanh cng c (khng nhn chut vo n) th
mt nhn nh s xut hin cho bn bit nt l g. Cc menu bn di thanh tiu
cung cp thm mt dy ty chn v chc nng. Chng ta s xem xt mt vi chc
nng thng dng.
File: Open
Nhn chut vo File th mt menu s th xung, trong c mc Open. Nu bn
nhn chut ln n, mt ca s nh hnh di s xut hin.
m mt file c sn, bn nhn chut vo mi tn trong hp Look in v xc nh

v tr file trong cy th mc. Khi bn nh v c file, nhn chut vo tn file sau
nhn OK m file. Vic nhn p chut vo tn file va c tc dng chn v nhn
OK m file.
255

File: Save As
Bn m mt file to trc (hin nhin l c sn tn ca file ), sa n v mun
lu li mt s thay i trn file. Nu mun gi nguyn file gc, bn chn File, sau
chn Save As v t cho file sa mt tn mi.
File gc bn m s gi nguyn nh ban u v file vi tn mi s bao gm tt
c nhng g bn thay i. V d, bn c th m file cha th gi n c Smith
c gi l Smith.Doc, thay i cc thng tin v tn v a ch, lu n thnh Jones.
Doc. Bn s c hai file: file gc Smith.Doc v mt file khc l Jones.Doc.
File: Close
ng file Word, mt cch n gin l chn File sau chn Close. Nu cha lu
file, bn s c hi c mun lu bt c thay i no m bn thc hin khng.
File: Print
Nu mun in mt file ang m, bn nhn chut vo ty chn Print trong menu File.
Hp thoi sau s xut hin.
C nhiu ty chn my in khc nhau (nu my tnh ca bn c kt ni vi mng ni

b c nhiu my in) v cc ty chn cho php bn in nhiu bn, in trang hin ti, in
nhng ni dung bn chn bng cch bi en hay in mt trang c th no . Bn
cn t th nghim vi nhng ty chn ny.
Edit: Cut, Copy v Paste
hoc
Cng c ct, sao chp v dn c sn trn cc nt ca thanh cng c hay trong mc
menu. Cch s dng nh sau:
(a) Bc u tin l bi en (chn) on vn bn m bn mun nh dng.
chn mt on vn bn, t mi tn chut ti ch u tin, sau gi nt
tri chut v di chuyn con tr qua on vn bn bn mun chn. Sau th
chut ra. on vn bn bn chn s c bi en nh hnh di.
256
Chng 7: Bo co
Phn vn bn ny c chn. Phn vn bn ny khng c chn.

chn bng bn phm th di chuyn con tr n im bt u ca on
vn bn s chn. Nhn v gi phm Shift, trong lc ang gi phm ny th
dng phm mi tn bi en vn bn bn mun chn. ( b chn mt
on vn bn, nhn chut vo bt c ni no trong file ngoi tr on vn
bn chn).
(b) Vi on vn bn c bi en, nhn Edit t menu chnh.
(i) Nu mun gi on vn bn c chn nguyn v tr c, ng thi mun
c mt bn sao ca on vn bn trong vng nh tm (clipboard)
ca my tnh, nhn Copy.
(ii) Nu mun di chuyn on vn bn c chn ra khi v tr hin ti,
nhng cng gi n tm thi trong vng nh tm ca my tnh, nhn Cut.
on vn bn ny s bin mt.
(c) Di chuyn con tr n v tr m bn mun t on vn bn chn.
(d) Nhn Edit mt ln na v chn Paste.
s xut hin v tr mi.
on vn bn m bn chn
Lu rng cng c nhng phm tt ct, sao chp, v dn. Chng c lit k
trong menu Edit (hoc bng cch di chuyn con tr n biu tng cut, copy v
paste) - v d nhn phm Ctrl v V cng ging nh chn Paste trn menu Edit. C mt
cch khc ging nh ng tc ct v dn, l ko ch chn v th n vo v tr mi.
Bn hy th t mnh thc hin.
2.3 nh dng
C th truy cp cc ty chn nh dng t menu Format hoc thanh cng c Formatting
(hnh di). Nu bn khng thy nhng ty chn ny trn mn hnh, chn View,
Toolbars, Formatting t menu chnh. Trong phin bn mi, bn cn nhn vo tab Home.
Thanh cng c nh dng cho php bn chn phng ch, c phng, chuyn vn bn
thnh kiu in m, nghing v gch chn, cn l vn bn, chn s hay du chm u
hng v chn mu cho phng ch.
thay i phng ch, nhn mi tn ch xung ca hp chn phng ch. Mt danh
sch phng ch s xut hin. Bn c th chn bt k phng ch no t danh sch.
Tn phng ch mi c chn s xut hin trong hp chn phng ch. Bt k vn
bn no c chn s c nh dng phng ch mi, bt k vn bn no c
nhp vo sau ny cng s c nh dng phng ch mi. i vi c phng, cng tin
hnh nhng thao tc y nh vy.
Nt in m (B), in nghing (I) v gch chn (U) cng thc hin chnh xc nh vy:
Chng in m, nghing, hay gch chn vng vn bn ang c chn hay thit lp
nh dng ph hp cho vn bn ang c g ti v tr con tr chut. Mu phng ch
c th hiu chnh bng cch nhn nt A. Nhn chut vo mi tn ch xung bn cnh
nt A, mu m bn chn s c p dng cho vn bn chn.
Nu bn ang s dng phin bn c, bn cn tm hiu nhng ty chn tng t bng
cch s dng nhng mc ca menu Format hn l dng nt trn thanh cng c.
257

Format: Paragraph (nh dng on vn bn)
Mc ny trn menu Format cho php bn to cc khong gin cch cho on vn
bn (gia nhiu dng khc) mt cch nht qun v chuyn nghip. Bn nn s dng
ty chn ny hn l nhn phm Enter vi ln to khong gin cch dng.
Nhn chut vo ty chn Paragraph trong menu Format (hoc tab Home), th
Indents (Khong cch u dng) and Spacing (Khong gin dng) s hin ra. Ty
chn Spacing cho php bn nh r s point (n v khong cch theo chiu dc
nh nht) trc v sau on vn bn. V d, khong cch l 6 point gia on ny
v on trc .
Cn l vn bn l cch cn chnh vn bn trn mn hnh.
(a) Cn l tri: l tri vn bn c cn thng hng, trong khi l phi th khng
c cn;
(b) Cn l phi: th ngc li, l phi c cn thng hng v l tri th khng
c cn.
(c) Cn gia: mi hng vn bn c t chnh gia vn bn.
(d) Cn l u hai bn: l tri v l phi u c cn thng hng bng cch
thm vo cc khong gin cch nh gia cc t trong cng mt dng.
C sn cc nt trn thanh cng c cho cc ty chn cn l vn bn nh hnh di.
Ruler bar (Thanh thc k )

L trang
bn tri
Tht l tri
dng u
Tht l bn phi
L trang bn phi
Tht l tri tt c cc dng
Thanh thc k c t pha trn v bn tri ca vn bn. Chng hin th vic

cn l trang, tht l, thit lp phm tab v b cc trang. Nu thanh thc k khng
xut hin, n gin l chng b tt. Nu khng thy chng, bn hy chn Ruler t
menu View (hoc tab View).
Thanh thc k ngang (hin bn trn) cho php bn thit lp phm tab, tht l v
cn l trang. Nhng vng mu trng ca thc xc nh ni vn bn c th c t
vo. L trang chnh l ranh gii gia vng mu trng v vng mu xm. Khng c
vn bn no xut hin ngoi vng trng. Bn c th iu chnh l mt cch n gin
bng cch di chuyn con tr qua thanh phn cch vng mu trng v mu xm, sau
khi con tr chut bin thnh mi tn hai chiu, nhn chut v ko l n v tr mi.
Cc biu tng hnh tam gic trn thc k ngang c dng nh khong tht
l. C th ko cc biu tng ny nh khong tht l u on vn. Tam gic
pha trn bn tri (ch xung di) xc nh First Line Indent (Tht l dng u
tin) - ni bt u ca dng u tin. L tri ca tt c dng khc trong on vn bn
c cn ti v tr tam gic nm di, bn tri thanh thc k. y l Hanging Indent
(Tht dng cui cng). Di tam gic Hanging Indent l mt hnh ch nht nh. y
l cng c iu khin Left Indent (Tht l tri) - Bn c th ko hnh ch nht ny
di chuyn First Line Indent v Hanging Indent cng mt lc. Tam gic bn phi ca
thanh thc k c s dng iu chnh khong tht l bn phi.
258
Chng 7: Bo co
Thanh thc k ng cng tng t thanh thc k ngang. N c s dng
iu chnh l trn v l di ca trang vi cc thao tc nh bn s dng vi thanh
thc k ngang. Lu rng nhng thay i nh hng n ton b cc trang,
trong khi vic thit lp khong tht l ch nh hng ti on hin ti.
Phm Tab
Phm tab c dng to cc khong cch cho vn bn xuyn sut trang vn bn.
Cng c tab xut hin trn mn hnh, gc trn bn tri ca trang. C bn loi tab
chnh, mi loi tng ng vi mt k hiu khong cch khc nhau. Nhn chut vo
cng c tab i loi tab c chn.
t khong tab trong ti liu, nhn chut vo thanh thc k ni bn mun to mt
im dng cho phm tab. Mt biu tng, ging vi biu tng trong hp tab trn, s
xut hin trong thanh thc k. di chuyn tab, ko biu tng tab qua tri hay phi.
b tab, hy ko biu tng xung v th n bt c u bn di thanh thc k.
Cng nh tt c cc chc nng khc, bn nn t luyn tp s dng phm tab.
Tools: Spelling and grammar (Cng c kim tra chnh t v ng php)
Cui cng, chng ta tm hiu mt trong s nhng chc nng ph bin nht ca phn
mm x l vn bn. Nhn chut vo Tools trong phin bn c hoc nhn Review
trong phin bn mi v sau chn Spelling and grammar trong menu th xung.
Chng trnh Word s r sot ton b ti liu ca bn xem cc t c ng chnh
t hay khng (so cc t vi mt t in c ci t sn trong phn mm x l vn
bn). Nu mt t sai chnh t, chng trnh s hin th mt danh sch cc t ng
bn la chn. V d, nu bn g t drp, cc la chn s c a ra l drip,
drop, dry v dip.
Cng c kim tra chnh t s xc nh tt c cc t khng nm trong t in ca
phn mm x l vn bn. Hy nh rng, khng phi tt c cc ch c t m
u thc s sai chnh t, v d t spreadsheeting (trong cu this job requires good
spreadsheeting skills) c phn mm cho l c li, nhng trn thc t li khng
phi nh vy.
Tng t, mt s li s khng c t m ln v li chnh t sai ny li ph hp vi
mt t khc. V d, khi bn nhp nhm from thnh form th t s khng c
t m nh mt li chnh t.
V th, vic s dng tnh nng kim tra li chnh t lun cn ginh thi gian quyt nh
xem nn chp nhn hay khng chp nhn nhng thay i c ngh. Hn na, hy
chc chn rng bn s dng t in ng, v d, dng English UK thay v English US.
Hy chc chn rng bn

s dng t in ng (v
d, English UK
259

Trong phin bn Word mi, bn cn nhn vo biu tng Spelling v Grammar, sau
nhn vo Options, chn Proofing, Custom Dictionaries v chn ngn ng t
in m bn mun.
Vic kim tra ng php s thc hin nhng nhim v sau y:
(a) Xc nh nhng cu thiu ng t;
(b) Xc nh nhng cu m ng t khng ph hp vi ch ng v s (s
t, s nhiu) (V d, two of the main reasons for the development of the
multinational company is);
(c) Xc nh nhng cu qu di hay qu nhiu mnh gy nhm ln cho
ngi c.
Bn c th chn trong chc nng kim tra ng php v vn phong ngn ng m bn
s dng, nh chun (standard), trang trng (formal), thng thng (casual), v
chuyn mn (technical). Bn cng c th s dng chc nng kim tra ng php
thng k kh nng d c (readabilily statistics) ca bn. y l mt cng c hu
ch v n c th ch ra khi no ngn ng trong ti liu ca bn khng ph hp vi i
tng ngi c d kin.
Nu bn khng mun dng i dng li mt t nhiu ln, hy th s dng chc nng
t in ng ng (Thesaurus). Cng c s gi cho bn nhng t thay th v gii
thch r v ngha ca nhng t ny.
2.4 Bng
Mt s thng tin trong bo co, th t, bin bn ghi nh hay cc dng ti liu khc c
th c trnh by trong mt bng. Chng ti s gii thch ngn gn cch to v nh
dng mt bng s dng mc menu. Cng nh nhiu chc nng ca Microsoft Word,
cc thao tc tng t cng c thc hin bng cch nhn cc nt trn thanh cng
c (nu bn mun th s dng nhng nt trn thanh cng c, kch hot thanh cng
c Tables and Borders (Bng v ng vin) bng cch chn View, Toolbars, Tables
and Borders t menu chnh).
to mt bng n gin, thc hin theo cc bc sau:
Bc 1 Nhn chut vo ni m bn mun to bng trong ti liu;

Bc 2 T menu chnh chn Table, Insert, Table; (hoc chn tab Insert v nhn
vo Table, tip theo l Insert Table)
Bc 3 Hp thoi Insert Table s xut hin nh di y. Nhp vo s hng v
s ct yu cu (ng lo lng, nu bn khng hon ton chc chn v s

hng v s ct th vn c th thay i sau). Chp nhn b rng ct mc
nh (Auto). Nhn
260
Chng 7: Bo co
Bc 4
Bc 5
By gi bn c mt bng trong ti liu ca mnh.

Bng bn va to ra ch l bc u. Khi nhp thm d liu vo bng,
bn c th thay i nh dng ni dung ca tng c th hoc quyt nh
s chn hay xa mt s ct hay hng no .
Nhng hng dn thc hin mt s thao tc hu ch lin quan n bng c th

hin trong bng di y:
Thao tc trong bng Cch thao tc
Nhp vn bn v di Nhn chut vo thch hp (mt vng c th ca bng) v
chuyn quanh bng
bt u nhp vn bn. Khi bn nhp n cui th vn bn
s tip tc nhy xung dng tip theo, v chiu cao ca
s t ng iu chnh.
Di chuyn n mt khc bng cch nhn chut vo mi.
Nu mun, bn c th di chuyn trong bng bng cch s
dng cc phm sau:
Tab - a bn n tip theo.
Shift + Tab - a bn quay li mt (phm Shift nm trn
phm Ctrl).
Phm mi tn Up hay Down - cho php bn ln hay xung
mt hng.
Return hay Enter - cho php bn chuyn sang mt dng
mi trong cng .
261

Thao tc trong bng Cch thao tc
Cn l vn bn
Thao tc ny dng cn l tri, cn gia, cn u v cn

l phi, s dng nt cn l trn thanh cng c Standard
(hoc tab Home).
nh dng vn bn
Bn nh dng vn bn trong bng nh nh dng vn bn

thng thng bng cch chn vn bn, sau s dng
cc nt trn thanh cng c hay trong menu Format.
Chn hng
nh v con tr chut bn tri ca hng bn mun chn, con

tr chut s chuyn thnh mt mi tn ch v pha nh ca
hng. Nhn chut chn hng.
Chn ct
nh v con tr chut pha trn ct m bn mun chn. Con

tr chut chuyn thnh mi tn en ch xung. Nhn chut
chn ct.
Nu mun, bn c th nhn chut vo ct mun chn, sau
chn Table, Select, Column t menu.
Chn mt n
nh v con tr chut ch vo bin tri ca m bn mun

chn. Con tr chut chuyn thnh mi tn en ch v pha
nh ca . Nhn chut chn .
Chn ton b bng
Nhn chut vo bt k no trong bng. Sau , gi chut

pha gc tri ca bng cho n khi xut hin mt vung nh.
Sau , nhn vo vung ny v ton b bng s c chn.
Thay i chiu cao Di chuyn con tr chut qua bin m bn mun di chuyn cho
hng v b rng ct ti khi con tr chut chuyn thnh biu tng c hai ng k
song song vi mi tn ln v xung (hng) hay tri v phi (ct).
Gi chut v ko bin c chiu cao hay rng cn thit.
Xa ct hay hng
Chn ct hay hng nh trnh by trn. Sau nhn

chut phi, chn Delete cells v nhn vo Delete entire row
hoc Delete entire column.
Xa ni dung ca xa ni dung ca mt hng hay ct, bn ch vic chn

hng hay ct
vng cn xa sau nhn phm Delete.
Thm hng hay ct
thm mt hng, chn hng bn di ni m bn mun

thm hng mi, ri chn Table, Insert, Rows t menu (hoc
chn tab Layout, sau nhn Insert Below hoc Insert Above).
thm mt ct, chn ct bn phi ct m bn mun thm
ct mi, ri chn Table, Insert, Columns t menu.
Hp nht (gp) cc Nhp cc li vi nhau cha on vn bn tri di hai

hay nhiu ct c gi l hp nht (merging cells). S rt
hu ch khi hp nht cc dng u tin ca bng,
in tiu tri di tt c cc ct ca bng.
hp nht, bn phi chn cc mun hp nht - sau
chn Table, Merge Cells t menu (hoc chn tab Layout,
sau nhn Merge Cells).
ng vin v hiu Word chn ng vin n quanh tt c cc trong mt bng
mi. Bn c th thay i mt vi hay tt c ng vin, hoc
ng t bng
thm ng vin, hoc loi b cc ng vin, t bng cc
bng cch dng ty chn Borders and Shading (ng vin
v hiu ng t bng) bn di Format (hoc chn tab Design,
sau nhn vo mi tn gc phi pha di Draw Borders).
Bn nn luyn tp thnh tho nhng thao tc ny.
262
Chng 7: Bo co
2.5 Kiu ni b
Vi loi phng ch, nh dng v nhng ty chn khc, ti liu c th c nhiu
phng ch, nh dng khc nhau. trnh by mt cch nht qun v chuyn nghip,
mt s t chc c bit quy nh cng mt kiu phng, nh dng cho ton ti liu.
iu ny to nn s nht qun v chuyn nghip. V d, tiu v ni dung vn bn
trong cun sch ny dng cng kiu phng ch - v cc chng s dng cng mt
kiu trnh by, mt kiu nh dng cho phn u trang v chn trang.
Nu t chc ca bn c mt kiu ni b (house style), hy chc chn rng bn bit
cch p dng n vo file ca mnh.
3 VIT BO CO S DNG MICROSOFT WORD

Vit bo co
(Report writing)
S dng phn mm
x l vn bn
software)
Bo co
(Reporting)
Vit bo co s dng
Microsoft Word
(Report using
Microsoft Word)
Thuyt trnh s dng

PowerPoint
PowerPoint)
Thuyt trnh
kinh doanh
(Business
presentations)
Vi ch c, khi vit bo co phn tch bn nn theo nhng bc sau:
3.1 To mt mu ti liu
C th s dng cc k thut trnh by khc nhau ngi c d xc nh cc vn
v thun tin hn khi mun tm hiu ni dung ca bo co. V d, nhng vn
kh quan trng nn c nh du c th tham chiu khi cn v phn chnh ca
vn bn nn c chia thnh nhiu on nh d nhn.
Ngay trong giai on u ca qu trnh lp k hoch cho bo co, vic xc nh cc
kiu nh dng v trnh by l rt quan trng.
Mi ti liu Microsoft Word u da trn mt mu c chc nng xc nh cu trc
c bn cho ti liu vi nhng thit lp v phng ch, phm tt, macro, menu, b cc
trang, cc nh dng ring v kiu (style). Microsoft Office cung cp cc kiu cn
bn nh Heading 1 v Normal, c p dng chung cho tt c cc ti liu v c th
truy cp t menu Format Styles and Formatting (hoc nhn tab Home, chn hp
Styles). Cc mu ti liu, nh mu dng cho bo co trong hp thoi New, cha
nhng ci t ch c sn cho nhng ti liu da trn mu. V d, nu bn s dng
mt trong cc mu to mt bo co, th bo co ca bn s s dng nhng ci t
ca c mu bo co v nhng ci t chung cho tt c cc ti liu.
263

Bn c th s dng mt mu c sn hay to mt nh dng bo co ring bng cch
chn menu File, chn New More new templates ri chn dng m bn mun. Nhn
vo Reports v lc s c cc la chn nh sau.
Nhn chut vo mu bo co cn chn, mt bn xem trc s hin ln; nu bn
thch, hy nhn OK chp nhn. Mt ti liu c to sn s xut hin v bn
c th sa li cho ph hp vi bo co ca mnh.
3.2 Phn tch ch mt cch cn thn

C th t g cng (outline) v cc yu cu cho bo co ca bn hoc nhp t
cc ngun khc. Nu cn chn mt phn file vo ti liu, hy bi en phn vn bn
m bn mun chn ri thc hin cc thao tc sao chp v dn vn bn vo ti liu
mi. Mun chn ton b ni dung ca mt file vo vn bn, hy chn Insert File v
tm n file . Nhn chut vo Insert ri nhn OK. i vi mt loi file no , bn
c th mun chn n nh mt lin kt (link).
Bng cch ny, nu file c thay i, lin kt ca bn trong ti liu cng c th c
cp nht bng cch nhn chut vo n v nhn phi chut hin lnh Update field.
Khi phn tch ch , bn c th t t mt lot cc cu hi nh:

(a) Ai l ngi c bo co ny, v h mun bit iu g? Yu cu chnh xc ca
bo co l g? gip xc nh iu g c yu cu, hy gch di hay t
m nhng t kha trong ch . Vic ny s gip bn bit c ni dung
cn tp trung trong nghin cu.
(b) Mc ch ca bo co l g? Lin quan n mt vn c th, mc ch ca
bo co c th l: ghi nhn, thng bo, hng dn, phn tch
hay thuyt phc.
(c) Phm vi ca bo co l g? Bn cn trnh by kha cnh no ca ch ?
(d) Gii hn ca bo co l g? C ba loi gii hn m bn cn xem xt. l
gii hn v thng tin ca ch ; gii hn ny xc nh cc yu t nh: thng
tin u, thi gian no, cho nhng nhm no... Cng c gii hn v di
tnh trn s lng t ca bo co v thi gian bn c. i khi, cng c gii
hn v ngun lc c sn khc.
Nu bn b gii hn v s lng t, th gii hn ny ch p dng i vi phn
chnh ca bo co. Nhng phn Tm tt bo co (Executive Summary), Letter
of Authorisation (Th y quyn), Li cm n (Acknowledgements), Thut ng
264
Chng 7: Bo co
(Glossary), Ph lc (Appendices) v Danh mc tham kho/Ti liu tham kho
(Reference List/Bibliography) thng khng c s gii hn v s t. Bn c th
m s t bng cch bi en ni dung lin quan, sau nhn chut vo Tools
Word Count.
Ln k hoch trc v khong thi gian bn c tin hnh nghin cu v hon thnh
bo co. Bn c th thy hu ch khi a ra hn thi gian v t mc tiu k hoch.
3.3 Lp k hoch s b
lp k hoch s b, hy thc hin nhng bc di y:
(a) S dng k thut ng no (brainstorming) tm kim cc tng. Hy
pht trin k thut ny thc hin n mt cch hiu qu - v d, bng cch
v s t duy hay hi nhng cu hi lin quan ti ch nh ci g, ai,
u, khi no, nh th no v ti sao.
(b) Chn tng ph hp vi mc tiu ca ch v cc cu hi m ngi c
mun c tr li;
(c) Sp xp nhng tng vo k hoch s b, nhm nhng tng c lin
quan vi nhau vo cc tiu hoc tiu con. Nhng cp khc nhau
c phn bit bng cc kiu v c phng khc nhau. C th s dng h
thng nh s thp phn, vi cc s n (1, 2, 3...) cho tiu chnh, s thp
phn (1.1, 1.2, 1.3) cho tiu cp hai v hai s thp phn (1.1.1, 1.1.2,
1.1.3) cho tiu cp ba;
(d) Hy xem xt cch no tt nht nghin cu ch ca bn. V d, bn
c cn ly thng tin chnh t nhng bi bo hay sch khng? Hay bn c
c yu cu chun b hay thc hin kho st hay phng vn mt nhm/c
nhn ri bo co kt qu hay khng? Tp hp li nhng thng tin bn yu
cu, ghi nh mc tiu v cu trc bo co. Ghi chp ngun thng tin, bao
gm danh sch tham kho mt cch c h thng.
3.4 Son bn phc tho u tin

V d v cng bo co c trnh by di y th hin ba phn khc nhau (s
b, chnh v ph) v cch thc lp ni dung trong phn chnh ca ba cp tiu c
nh s. Lu rng ch c tiu ca phn chnh c nh s.
Phn
Tiu v nh s
Mc ch
Phn m u Bo co xut thnh lp Trang ny nn bao gm tiu

Trung tm m nhc Quc gia v ngy bo co, tn ngi hay
t chc nhn bo co v tn bn
East Grinstead
(hay nhm bo co, tn cc thnh
Mc lc
vin trong nhm).
Tm tt bo co
Mc lc lit k cc phn khc
nhau v ch cho ngi c cch
tm cc phn trong bo co.
Tm tt bo co cn c vit sau
cng, bi n tm lc cc thng
tin c vit trong bo co. N
cho ngi c ci nhn bao qut/
tng hp m khng cn c ton
b bo co. Phn ny c th tch
ring thnh mt ti liu, nu cn.
265
Phn
Tiu v nh s
Mc ch
Phn chnh:
1 Gii thiu
Mc ch l nh hng ngi
c n ton ti liu v to mt
ng cnh cho bo co. Bn c th
thc hin vic ny bng cch:
Thng bo mc ch r rng
- ti sao ch ny c
nghin cu;
Bi cnh ca bo co - ti sao
bo co ny c yu cu v
bi ai;
Phm vi v gii hn ca bo
co - vn g c nu
trong bo co, vn g
khng c nu v ti sao;
Phng php nghin cu bn nghin cu ch ny
bng cch no.
Ni dung s 1 1.1 Bi cnh

1.1.1 Tm tt cuc kho
st nm 20X8
1.1.2 Tm tt xut
ca Hi ng Ngh
thut Lin bang
1.1.3 Mc tiu ca xut
Phn chnh:
2 Nhng kt qu v phn y l ni dung chnh ca bo

tch quan trng
co, bao gm c trnh by v
Ni dung s 2
phn tch nhng kt qu ca bn.
2.1 Nhu cu cp quc gia v
ni dung ny, bn m t nhng
mt Trung tm Ngun lc
kt qu ca bn t cuc iu tra,
v Tp hun m nhc.
v phn tch ngha nhng kt
2.1.1 Nhc s
qu .
2.1.2 C s vt cht
hin ti
2.1.3 a im hin ti
2.1.4 Phn hi ca cng
ng
2.1.5 Phn tch nhng
kt qu
Phn chnh:
3 Kt lun
Ni dung s 3 3.1 Tnh kh thi

3.2 Ngun ti tr
3.3 a im
266
Mc ch ca phn ny l thng
bo li mt cch ngn gn nhng
im quan trng nht t nhng
kt lun ca bn v phn tch
a ra mt thng bo chung v
nhng . Bc ny chun b
cho ngi c n nhn bt k
xut no m bn s a ra. Lu
khng nn c thng tin mi trong
kt lun.
Chng 7: Bo co
Phn
Tiu v nh s
Mc ch
4 xut
Mc ch ca phn ny l a
ra xut v nhng hnh ng
4.1 Thit lp cc lin kt ti: hay nhng nh hng cho tng
4.1.1 Cp a phng lai cn c thc hin da trn
kt lun ca bo co. Nhng hnh
4.1.2 Cp quc gia
ng hay nh hng ny nn
c vit theo th t u tin.
4.1.3 Cp quc t
Phn b sung Danh sch tham kho
Ph lc
Ph lc I
Ph lc II
Phn ny c nhng thng tin b

sung gip ngi c xc minh
ngun thng tin v kim tra chi tit
d liu.
Danh sch tham kho bao gm tt
c cc ngun ti liu m bn s
dng hay tham kho trong bo co.
gi cho phn chnh ca bo
co ngn nhm thu ht ngi
c, nn a vo ph lc nhng
cng thc, biu , bng s v
phn gii thch chi tit. Nn ch dn
tham chiu ph lc ti ch thch
hp phn chnh ca bo co.
Phn chnh
Phn chnh (main section) thng l v tr tt nht bt u. Khi hon thnh
phn chnh, bn c th tip tc vit nhng phn khc.
Thm vo bt c biu (v d cc th, bng biu, hnh nh...) h tr v trnh
by ti liu mt cch trc quan. Mi biu phi c tiu v c nh s lin
tc. Bn c th nh s biu mt cch t ng vi Word caption bng cch nhn
chut vo Insert Caption ri chn AutoCaption (hoc chn tab References, nhn
vo Insert caption). y l mt ci nhn c nh s, nh Figure 1, m bn c
th thm vo bng biu, hnh nh, phng trnh, hay mc khc. Bn c th thay i
ch thch v nh dng s cho ph hp, v d, Table II v Equation 1-A. Nu b
sung, xa, hay di chuyn ch thch, bn c th cp nht mt cch d dng s th
t trong tt c cc ch thch mt ln duy nht.
267

C nhiu cch khc nhau hiu chnh v nh dng on ch thch. Bn c th thay
i nhn v/hoc nh dng s cho mt hay nhiu ch thch, v d thay i Table 6
thnh Figure 6, hay to mt nhn mi, nh Photo.
Nu cc chng trong ti liu cng c nh s, bn c th a s chng vo
ch thch, v d, Figure 1-A.
Kt lun
Kt lun c t cui bo co ni m cc quyt nh, xut ca bo co v bt
k bc tip theo no s c tho lun. Kt lun khng phi l bng tm tt cho
ton bo co m l kt qu chnh ca bo co, v th phi cha lun im mnh nht
ca bn. Ngi iu hnh hay qun l bn rn nn c phn tm tt bo co v phn
kt lun hiu r v ni dung bo co, cc xut lin quan v ngi qun l (hay
mt ai khc) cn lm g tip theo.
Tm tt bo co
Mt bng tm tt bo co c t u bo co, nhng n ch c th c vit
khi bo co hon thnh. Bng tm tt bo co cn c vit sao cho khi cn thit c
th tr thnh mt ti liu c lp Nhng ai c bo co chnh thc u c th hiu
c ni dung m khng cn c bng tm tt bo co. Ngi ta c th c bng tm
tt bo co mt cch c lp v vn c coi l mt ti liu chnh thng.
Bng tm tt bo co c ng ni dung ton bo co trong mt trang giy, thng ri
vo khong 250-500 t. Bng tm tt cng phi nu bt ng cnh: ti sao bo co
c son tho? i tng c l ai? N phi phc tho c ni dung cc phn cn
li ca bo co. Rt kh a ra quy tc tng qut nhng c mt gi l, mi trang ca
bo co chnh nn c c ng thnh mt hay hai cu trong bng tm tt.
Bng tm tt bo co dnh cho nhng ngi bn rn, thay v phi c ton b bo
co h ch cn c tm tt bo co (v kt lun), t rt ra nhng chnh ca vn
ang c trnh by. V th, bng tm tt bo co khng nn cha bt c ti liu
no m khng c cp n trong bo co; mc d vy, vic trch dn kin hay
ca mt ngi no c uy tn trong lnh vc ang c cp c th l cch m
u hay kt thc tt cho bng tm tt bo co v trong thc t c th c chp nhn.
3.5 To mc lc
Mc lc a ra cng v cc phn khc nhau ca bo co, gip ngi c tm
nhng phn ny. Mc lc l mt danh sch tt c cc tiu , tiu ph, bng biu/
hnh nh, ph lc, v.v vi s trang tng ng.
Khi hon thnh vn bn v xy dng mc cho ti liu (s dng ti a ba cp
: mt cp cho tiu chnh, mt cp cho tiu ph, v mt cp cho tiu
ph chi tit hn) v khi mc mong mun c bao gm trong bng mc lc,
bn c th bt u to mc lc. Chn Insert Reference Index and Table v chn
tab Table of Contents. Mt hp thoi s xut hin cho php bn chn kiu s c
s dng to mc lc. Bng cch chn Modify (Sa i), cp ca mi kiu trong
bng c th thay i. N cng cho php bn thm hay bt kiu t mc lc. Nhn OK
s to mt mc lc da trn nhng kiu m bn mun. Bn s thy mc c a
vo danh sch trong bng vi s trang tng ng vi mc.
Mt iu lu quan trng l, khi c a vo ti liu, mc lc s khng t ng cp
nht s trang v thng tin ca bo co. cp nht ni dung vo bng mc lc, nhn
phi chut trn bng v chn Update Field. Khi Word s qut li ti liu v cp
nht thay i c thc hin trong vn bn vo Bng mc lc.
268
Chng 7: Bo co
3.6 nh gi bo co
Khi hon thnh phc tho u tin, bn s cn kim tra li:
(a) Bn lm theo ng hng dn ca ngi yu cu bo co. Kim tra mt
cch chi tit nhng yu cu lin quan n di t, nh dng, b cc, trang
trnh by, v tham kho.
(b) Vn phong vit ca bn c ph hp hay khng. Bo co phn tch c c
vit theo vn phong trang trng, s dng nhng cu ngn va phi hay khng.
(c) Bn c lin kt cc lun im mt cch logic, c s dng t v cm t lin
kt ph hp hay khng.
(d) Mi on c cp mt chnh hay khng.
(e) Nhng kt lun ca bn c c chng minh bi chng c, s dng ti liu
tham kho hp l hay khng.
(f) Nhng v d c thch hp vi lun im a ra khng.
(g) Bn lin h vi cng vic ca bn mt cch hp l.
(h) Ng php, chnh t v du chm cu c ng khng.
CH DN
Trong phn tip theo ca chng ny, chng ta s tp trung vo nhng bc lin quan n vic
chun b mt bi thuyt trnh kinh doanh.
4 THUYT TRNH KINH DOANH
Vit bo co
(Report writing)
S dng phn mm
x l vn bn
software)
Bo co
(Reporting)
Vit bo co s dng
Microsoft Word
(Report using
Microsoft Word)
Thuyt trnh s dng

PowerPoint
PowerPoint)
Thuyt trnh
kinh doanh
(Business
presentations)
269
4.1 Chun b bi thuyt trnh

NH NGHA
Thuyt trnh (presentation) l trnh by mt vn no (v d, thng tin) cho ngi nghe. Thuyt
trnh l cc hot ng c ln k hoch truyn t thng tin.
Thuyt trnh kinh doanh (business presentation) c th c thc hin trong
nhiu bi cnh, v c th khc nhau v nhiu phng din.
(a) S lng v thnh phn ngi nghe (size and composition of the
audience). C th t mt ngi qun l n mt nhm cc nh hoch nh
chnh sch hoc mt hi ngh ln. Ngi nghe c th bit bn hoc hon ton
xa l. H c kin thc v lnh vc bn ang trnh by hay ch l ngi khng
chuyn. Tt c nhng iu nh hng n kh nng tip nhn thng tin
ca ngi nghe.
(b) Mc ch v phng php tip cn (purpose and approach) ca bi
thuyt trnh. Bn c th a ra:
(i) Thng tin chuyn mn
(ii) Hng dn
(iii) So snh
(iv) xut
(v) Thuyt phc
(c) Mc phc tp (complexity) ca vn .
(d) Mc trang trng (level of formality). Bi thuyt trnh trong mt cuc hp
nhn vin c th khng trang trng, trong khi mt bi thuyt trnh cho qun l
cp cao th thng trang trng.
(e) Thi lng (time available). Mc ch ca bi thuyt trnh quy nh thi gian
c yu cu - thi gian li gii hn ni dung v vn phong ca bn.
4.2 Mc ch
m u bi thuyt trnh, bn nn t nhng mc tiu r rng. Nhng mc tiu
gip bn ln k hoch cho bi thuyt trnh cn c th (specific) v c th o lng
c (measurable).
Nhng mc tiu nn c bt u trn c s l ngi nghe s lm g hoc h s thay
i nh th no sau khi bi thuyt trnh kt thc: v d, h s tin, s b thuyt phc,
ng , c ng lc, thc hin, hiu, c kh nng - hay iu g tng t.
Bt u vi mc tiu chnh, sau chuyn sang mc tiu ph, bn s t c mc
tiu trong qu trnh thc hin. Th t thc hin mc tiu s hu ch trong vic lp k
hoch cho ni dung v cu trc bi thuyt trnh.
4.3 Ngi nghe

Bn c th ngh rng thnh phn ngi nghe kh cn bng - t ngi ra quyt nh
cp cao n nhng hc vin.
ng lc v k vng ca ngi nghe s nh hng n cm nhn ca h v bn
v thng ip ca bn. Ti sao h tham d bui thuyt trnh ca bn?
270
Chng 7: Bo co
(a) H tham d v c th b p buc. Tr khi s thch th c th c kch
thch bi bi thuyt trnh, tham d p buc c th to ra s chng i vi
thng ip.
(b) H tham d v c th ngi gim st khuyn h nh vy. Ngi tham d c
ng c, v h cm thy hng th vi bi thuyt trnh.
(c) Ngi nghe b thu ht bi ch ca bi thuyt trnh. iu ny c ngha l
c mt ranh gii mong manh gia vic trnh by cho ngi nghe nhng g h
bit v khin ngi nghe mt hng th bng vic a ra nhiu kin thc
trn tm ca h.
(d) Ngi nghe cn thng tin c th. Ngi ang tm kim thng tin mt cch
thn trng v c nh s dng thng tin cho mc tiu trong tng lai l
ngi nghe c ng lc cao.
c th xt n yu cu v k vng ca ngi nghe th thng ip ca bn cn c
nhng c im sau:
(a) Ph hp (relevance). Thng ip ca bn phi ph hp vi nhu cu v mi
quan tm ca ngi nghe, v d: lm cho mt quyt nh kh khn tr nn d
dng hn, hay tha mn mt nhu cu.
(b) Tin cy (credibility). Thng ip ca bn phi nht qun, truyn ti nhng
s vic thc, vi mc tiu r rng v c ly t ngun ng tin cy.
(c) Kh nng tip cn (accessibility)
(i) C th nghe v nhn c thng ip. Bn c cn n gn hn vi
ngi nghe hay khng? Bn c cn micro hay khng? Hay bn c cn
m rng cng c trc quan hay khng?
(ii) C th hiu c thng ip. Mc kin thc v ch ca ngi
nghe l nh th no? Cc thut ng chuyn mn hay bit ng no cn
n trnh hay gii thch?
4.4 Pht trin ni dung

Sau khi c mc tiu r rng v m t s lc v ngi nghe, bn c th ln k hoch
cho ni dung ca bi thuyt trnh.
Di y l mt phng php gip bn lm r t duy ca mnh:
Bc 1
p dng k thut ng no (brainstorm). Ngh v ch , ghi ch

nhng g bn ngh. ng lo lng v th t hay s lin quan ca nhng
tng - c cho nhng tng tip tc n cho ti khi no ca bn
cn kit.
Bc 2
Th t u tin (prioritise). Chn im chnh, ct truyn hay ch

gip cho cc lun im ca bn c s nht qun v phng hng.
Bn nu cng t im (vi s nhn mnh cao nht) th phng hng
m suy ngh ca bn ang hng ti cng r rng, ng thi ngi nghe
cng d nm bt v lu li thng ip ca bn. Hy loi b - khng nhn
mnh - nhng im khng c ch cho phc tho s b ca bn.
Bc 3
Cu trc/ cng (structure/outline). Lp bng ghi ch trnh by

nhng im chnh c chn v cch chng lin kt vi nhau. Sau
a ra thng ip ca bn. cng gm mt phn gii thiu;
cung cp chng c, v d v minh ha; nhng lu v v tr (hoc loi)
cng c trc quan s c yu cu, cc du hiu chuyn tip hp l
v kt lun.
271
Bc 4
Thc hnh (practise). Hc cng c bn hay chui cc tng

hn l nguyn bn theo tng t: Nu lp li nh con vt, bi din vn
ca bn s cng nhc v my mc. Bn nn c gng tp luyn, t nht
mt ln y , trong thi hn cho php, v c th trc nhng
ngi nghe gi.
Bc 5
Pht trin kh nng s dng ngn ng c th v cng c trc quan.

cng ca bn c th qu cng knh s dng ngn ng c th hoc
cng c trc quan. Nhng tm th va cm tay l dng c l tng.
Nu bn ang s dng slide trn my chiu hoc my vi tnh vi phn
mm trnh chiu (v d Microsoft PowerPoint), chng s l thit b dn
ng cho bn v ngi nghe. Khi phi c bng ghi ch ngn gn, r
rng (bng li ni v hnh nh) trong cung cp:
T kha cho mi ch v kt ni hp l gia chng;
Ni dung y ca bt k thng tin chi tit (ngn gn) no m bn
mun trch dn.
4.5 Phn gii thiu

Bn ch c mt c hi to n tng tt ln gp u tin!
Mc ch ca phn Phng php xut
gii thiu
V d
Thit lp s tin cy Trnh by mt cch ngn gn

i vi ch
(khong hai cu) v trnh
v/hay kinh nghim ca bn,
nhn mnh vo nhng phn
lin quan nht n ch .
Tri nghim u tin ca

ti v gi phn mm k ton
khng c th v cho lm - v
cht lng ca gi phn mm
v k nng ca ti khng
tng xng! Tuy nhin, thp
Mt giai thoi c v tht bi
k qua cho thy s pht trin
c th chng minh s cn
nhanh chng ca cc gi
thit phi c kh nng chuyn
phn mm k ton, hy vng
mn v ch ny.
kin thc v k nng ca ti
cng tin b n nh nh vy.
Thu ht s ch Thit lp s lin h gia ch

v quan tm ca v ngi nghe - nhng
ngi nghe
vn hay c hi h c th
ng dng.
Vo nm 1985, 60% cc nh
qun l trong ngnh k ton
s dng my tnh t hn ba
ln mt tun!
Khin cho h ngc nhin vi

nhng s kin th v.
Thit lp quan h K giai thoi, cu chuyn hi
vi ngi nghe
hc hay ng cm vi h.
Cung
cp
cho nh ngha v m t ch .
ngi nghe v ni
Ni r l do v mc tiu ca
dung v cu trc
bi thuyt trnh.
ca bi thuyt trnh
Nu bi cnh, gii thiu ch
v tuyn b ti ca bn.
272
Phng php k thut c

gii thch trong phn ny c
kh nng tit kim cho bn
trung bnh mi gi mt tun.
Chng 7: Bo co
4.6 Phn chnh bi thuyt trnh - lm r thng ip

Nhng ghi ch v cng phi bao gm gi lm r b cc v gip pht trin
thng tin hay lun im ca bn. iu ny s gi cho bn i ng ng v gip
cho ngi nghe c th:
(a) Duy tr mc tiu v ng lc;
(b) Theo di c cc lun im ca bn cng bn i n phn kt lun.
Gi hp l ch ra nhng lin kt gia mt ch hay bo co vi phn tip theo.
Di y l mt vi v d:
(a) Bn c th bt u mi lun im mt cch n gin vi nhng t hay cm
t lin kt nh sau:
iu ny dn n
Do [kt lun, kt qu hay nh hng, pht sinh t lun im trc]
V th
Kt qu l
Tuy nhin
Nhng [tri ngc hay thay cho mt lun im trc ]
Mt khc
Tng t [xc nhn hoc v d minh ha cho mt lun im trc ]
Mt ln na
Hn na [c xy dng trn lun im trc ]
(b) Bn c th thit lp mt khung cho ton b lun im, mang li cho ngi
nghe ci nhn tng quan ri a ra chi tit. V d:
C ba l do chnh Th nht Th hai Th ba
Vy cu tr li l g? y, bn c th xem xt hai kha cnh. Mt mt
mt khc
Hy cng tm hiu iu xy n nh th no. Vo th hai ngy 17 Sau
, vo th ba
L tt nhin, y khng phi l gii php hon ho. N c nhng thun li
Nhng cng c nhng bt li, l
Bn c th ngh v hot ng giao tip theo ngha ca 5 t sau: sc tch
(consise), r rng (clear), chnh xc (correct), y (complete) v lch s
(courteous). Hy ln lt xem xt tng t mt.
(c) Bn c th dng nhng cng c tm tt hay lp li lun im trc v
a ngi nghe qua phn tip theo. iu ny gip cho bn v ngi nghe c
c mt lc ngh ngi tp hp cc suy ngh ca bn.
Nhng cch khc, trong ni dung c th c s dng lm r thng ip, l:
(a) V d v minh ha - cho ngi nghe thy cch p dng mt tng trong
thc tin.
(b) Giai thoi - gip ngi nghe lin kt tng vi tnh hung thc t.
(c) Cu hi - tu t, hay yu cu ngi nghe tr li, a ra nhng lun im c
bit cn c lm r.
(d) Gii thch - ch ra nh th no hay ti sao mt iu g xy ra;
(e) M t - gip ngi nghe hnh dung nhng iu bn ang m t;
(f) nh ngha - gii thch chnh xc ngha ca nhng thut ng m ngi
nghe c th khng hiu;
273

(g) S dng d kin thc t, trch dn hay thng k - chng minh lun im
ca bn.
T vng (vocabulary) v vn phong ca bn nn gp phn lm r ngha thng ip.
Hy s dng nhng cu ngn v n gin. Trnh dng bit ng, nhng t vit tt
khng c gii thch, li ni thng tc, cu hai ngha, din t m h.
S nhn mnh
Nhn mnh c trng lng, tm quan trng hay nh hng i vi nhng t hay
tng c bit. iu ny c th t c thng qua cch ni - m iu v m lng
ca ging ni, nh mt, c ch ca bn. Vic nhn mnh cng c th c c qua
nhng k thut sau:
K thut
Ch gii
Lp li
Nu vic c tnh chnh xc doanh thu l iu thit yu i vi

quyt nh u t ca chng ta, th nhng k thut c tnh
chnh xc doanh thu cn c pht trin.
Cu hi tu t
Bn c bit bao nhiu trng phng khng hi lng v thng tin

qun tr m chng ta cung cp khng? 50%. Bn c ngh iu ny
l chp nhn c?
Trch dn
Qu ti thng tin l vn s mt i vi thng tin m chng ta to

ra. l kt lun trong cuc kho st ca chng ti.
Thng k
Nm nay, mt trong hai khch hng trong nc ca chng ta

phn nn, iu ny c ngha l s khch hng phn nn tng 20%
so vi nm ngoi. Nu vic ny vn tip din, chng ta s c nhiu
khch hng phn nn hn khch hng hi lng.
Phng i
Chng ta phi nhn vo h thng kim sot cht lng; nu theo

ci ny, chng ta s kt thc m khng c mt khch hng no.
Thu ht s quan tm
Thng tin n gin, r rng ch c th th v i vi nhng i tng c to
ng lc vi ch . Bn nn to s cn bng gia nhu cu v s r rng v nhu
cu to ra thng ip sinh ng, gy s ch v lm cho ngi nghe thy ng ghi
nh thng tin.
y l mt s gi :
(a) S tng ng. So snh mt iu vi mt iu khc sng ng hay th
v hn.
(b) Giai thoi hay cu chuyn. K mt cu chuyn minh ha cho lun im, s
dng ng cnh mang n s hi hp, hi hc hay ng cnh thc t hn.
(c) Gy t m hay ngc nhin. V d: Nu bn ni tt c nhng ng thng gi
m chng ta bn, th chng s di gp hai ln ng xch o.
(d) Hi hc. Nu kho s dng, iu ny s tng gi tr gii tr v gip ngi
nghe thoi mi. Song hy cn thn, hi hc khng phi lc no cng tt;
ngi nghe c th khng hiu ngi ni. Hy s dng mt cch cn trng!
274
Chng 7: Bo co
(e) Cm xc. Bn c th mun khi gi cm xc ca ngi nghe. Cng ging
nh s hi hc, bn phi bit chc chn v ngi nghe trc khi th thc
hin iu ny. S khi gi ca bn c th tnh c th hin s k c, li ko
hay ch n thun l khng ph hp. Cm xc lm tng hng th ca con
ngi v c th c s dng nhn mnh tnh nhn vn v s tn tm
ca ngi ni.
Ln u nghe v k thut ny, ti tng hoi nghi: C chc n s mang
li hiu qu nh h ang c din t. Nhng khi t mnh tri nghim th - i
chao! Ti qu thch th, qu n tng. C l hm nay ti s chia s mt
vi iu vi cc bn.
BI TP THC HNH 2
(10 PHT)
Bn ang chun b mt bi thuyt trnh cho ban qun tr v li ch ca h thng gi

lm vic linh hot. Bn c th s dng k thut g?
5 THUYT TRNH S DNG POWERPOINT
Vit bo co
(Report writing)
S dng phn mm
x l vn bn
software)
Bo co
(Reporting)
Vit bo co s dng
Microsoft Word
(Report using
Microsoft Word)
Thuyt trnh s dng

PowerPoint
PowerPoint)
Thuyt trnh
kinh doanh
(Business
presentations)
5.1 Cng c trc quan

Cng c trc quan s dng mt hnh nh trc quan h tr vic truyn ti thng tin.
Mc ch ca cng c trc quan khng phi l to nn hnh nh p, m l h tr
cho thng ip. Michael Stevens (Ci thin k nng thuyt trnh ca bn) lu rng:
S dng cng c trc quan ph hp l t c mt iu g trong bi thuyt
trnh m bn khng th t c ch bng t ng. Chng ch l phng tin t
c mc ch, v d lm r mt tng, chng minh mt lun im. Cng c trc
quan tt l cng c thc hin nhng iu ny mt cch hiu qu.
Slide (Trang trnh chiu) (dng vi my chiu ht hay my tnh (PC) v my chiu).
Cc slide c th cha nh, vn bn, biu v hnh nh c chiu trn mt mn
hnh hay b mt khc. Cc slide c nhiu c tnh hu ch nh sau:
275

(a) Chng cho php s dng hnh nh to mt sc thi hay n tng. Khi
c xem l hnh nh thc t, chng cng l nhng cng c mnh nu bn
mun chng minh mt lun im.
(b) Chng c chun b trc. Slide ca mt bi thuyt trnh kinh doanh thng
c chun b bng phn mm thuyt trnh. iu ny cho php bn ln k
hoch v thc hin mt cch cn thn, nn slide c th c hon thnh vi
mc cao v kiu cch, cht lng v chuyn nghip.
(c) Th t slide v thi gian cho mi slide c iu khin bi ngi thuyt
trnh, cho php ng b ha hnh nh lin quan n lun im c trnh by.
V th, slide tr nn linh hot theo kp ngi thuyt trnh v ngi nghe.
(d) Tc chuyn i nhanh chng gia hnh nh ny v hnh nh khc c bit
ph hp vi nhng thng ip c tnh tng phn hay so snh, v d so snh
hai sn phm, ni dung trc v sau.
Trc khi bt u vi phn mm thuyt trnh, bn cn xem li cng ca bi
thuyt trnh v xc nh nhng lun im c th c minh ha vi PowerPoint:
nh ngha
Biu
th
S liu thng k v.v
5.2 Thuyt trnh PowerPoint l g?

Bi thuyt trnh PowerPoint l tp hp cc slide, ti liu cho ngi nghe, ghi ch v
cng ca ngi thuyt trnh.
(a) Slide - Chng l nhng trang ca bi thuyt trnh, c th cha vn bn, hnh
nh, biu v m thanh. Ngoi vic trnh chiu bng PowerPoint, slide c
th c in ln giy bng knh dng cho my chiu s dng loi giy ny.
(b) Ti liu cho ngi nghe (handout) - Chng l bn slide c in vi kch c
nh hn, gm 2, 3 hay 6 slide trn mt trang A4.
(c) Ghi ch ca ngi thuyt trnh (speakers notes) - Bn c th to chng
dc theo l ca bi thuyt trnh.
(d) cng (outline) - Th hin tiu v vn bn chnh ca ton b bi
thuyt trnh, nhng khng bao gm hnh nh.
Khi to bi thuyt trnh PowerPoint, bn c th s dng 5 kiu xem. Bn c th chuyn
qua li gia cc kiu xem bng nt gc bn tri pha di ca s PowerPoint hoc
s dng menu View hay cc tab pha trn bn tri. Mi kiu xem cho bn kh nng
hiu chnh khc nhau v cch quan st bi thuyt trnh khng ging nhau.
(a) Xem slide (slide view) - Lm vic trn tng slide ti mt thi im, bn c
th thm vn bn, hnh nh, biu v thay i b cc ca slide.
(b) Xem khung slide (outline view) - Bn c th s dng kiu xem ny t
chc bi thuyt trnh. Bn ch lm vic vi tiu v vn bn chnh ca slide.
(c) Xem tt c cc slide (slide sorter view) - Kiu xem ny gip cho bn c
mt ci nhn ton din i vi mi slide trong bi thuyt trnh. Bn c th sp
xp li th t cc slide, thm phn chuyn tip v thit lp thi gian chuyn
trang t ng.
(d) Xem phn ghi ch (notes page view) - Bn c th thm ghi ch ca ngi
thuyt trnh vo bt c slide no trong bi thuyt trnh.
276
Chng 7: Bo co
(e) Xem trnh chiu slide (slide show view) - Kiu xem ny gip bn c mt
ci nhn ton din i vi mi slide trong bi thuyt trnh. Bn c th sp
xp li th t cc slide, thm phn chuyn tip v thit lp thi gian chuyn
trang t ng.
V d trn y th hin hiu qu ca phn mm thuyt trnh. Mt bo co nng v vn
bn theo kiu truyn thng cha n 100 trang gm vn bn v biu , khin vic
c ht ti liu ny c th tn thi gian v kh hiu. Tuy nhin, khi c t chc trong
mt nh dng slide, khi lng thng tin khng l c th gim xung cn khong
20-50 slile thuyt trnh, c trnh chiu vi nhng lun im ngn gn v hnh nh
hp dn.
5.3 To bi thuyt trnh PowerPoint c bn

Chng ta s bt u to v xem mt bi thuyt trnh PowerPoint c bn ri thm chi
tit cho bi thuyt trnh. Cng nh bt k gi phn mm sng to no khc, mt khi t
tin khm ph, bn c th t mnh thc hin thm nhiu thao tc. Phn ny ch cung
cp thng tin bn bt u.
1 M Microsoft PowerPoint bng cch nhn p chut vo biu tng tt
(shortcut) ca PowerPoint trn mn hnh Windows hoc chn n t menu
Start.
2 Trong PowerPoint 2003, chn File/New v From design Template t ca s
PowerPoint.
PowerPoint hin th mt th vin (gallery) nhng thit k, trong bao gm

nhng mu sc phi hp, phng ch, b cc. Duyt qua phn gallery, bn
s tm thy thit k mong mun. Hy nhn chut vo thit k p dng vo
trnh chiu slide ca bn.
Trong PowerPoint 2007, chn nt Office, sau nhn vo New v chn
Installed template hoc Installed themes.
277
Mt mu (template) c th c chn vo mt thuyt trnh mi hay c sn.

Khi bi thuyt trnh s dng mt mu, bn c th thay i sang mu khc
nhng khng th tr li trng thi ban u l khng dng mu no c.
Bn c th thay i thit k bt k lc no, ngay c sau khi to xong ton
b bi thuyt trnh. Tuy nhin, theo mc nh, PowerPoint thay i thit k tt
c slide trong bi thuyt trnh; sau khi thay i thit k, bn cn thay i vn
bn v nhng i tng khc ph hp vi thit k mi. V d, mt tiu
c th rt hp vi thit k ny, nhng c th qu di vi thit k khc. Nu c
th, hy c chn mt thit k m bn s s dng sut bi thuyt trnh.
PowerPoint s a ra slide u tin vi mt bng cc tiu trnh by chnh
v ph.
3 Bn c th thm mt slide mi bng cch nhn vo Insert/New hoc Curl,
hoc nhn chut phi vo cc slide nh pha di bn tri mn hnh v
chn New
Trong PowerPoint 2003, bn s c cung cp mt s layout c sn. Bn
cn chn mt b cc (layout) t nhng ty chn trong hp thoi xem trc
(preview). Nhn vo OK. Mt mu (template) cho slide th hai ca bn xut
hin v bn c th thm vo tiu v tiu ph.
278
Chng 7: Bo co
Trong PowerPoint 2007, bn c th truy cp layout bng cch nhn chut

phi vo slide nh pha tri mn hnh v chn Slide Layout.
4 Nhp tiu Gii thiu v PowerPoint v tiu ph - c th l tn bn hay
ngy m bn (hay ngi khc) s trnh by bi thuyt trnh. Nu khng mun
s dng tiu ph, bn c th chn n v xa i.
Thc hnh di chuyn, b v thay i kch thc mt hp thoi. Nhn chut

mt ln v ko cnh thay i kch thc hp thoi. Vn bn cng s thay
i kch thc ph hp vi kch thc v hnh dng mi m bn to ra.
Di chuyn hp tiu v tiu ph ti bt k v tr no bn mong mun trn
trang. Thc hnh thay i c im ca tiu v vn bn - c th tiu ,
phn chnh hay tt c vn bn - bi en nhng phn m bn mun thay i.
Chn Format t thanh Menu ri chn Font. Trong ca s ny, bn c th thay
i giao din, kch thc, kiu v mu ca phng ch. Nhn chut vo thanh
Colour ri chn More Colours, nu mu chun khng lm bn va lng.
Bn c th Undo (Hon tc) quay li bt c tnh trng no gn nht.
Nhng Undo khng ch l mt cng c bn sa li. Bi v vic to slide
279

PowerPoint ging nh mt tri nghim ngh thut, s dng cng c Undo
hoc Ctrl + z nh l cch th nghim. Bn c th lm ri hon tc v
lm li cho n khi t c iu bn mun.
Bn c th xa nhiu slide hay thng tin trn slide. xa thng tin t mt
slide, thao tc n gin l nhn chut vo i tng m bn mun b (v d,
mt th hay mt hnh nh) v nhn nt Delete. xa ton b slide, nhn
chut vo biu tng slide trong phn cng bn tri mn hnh v nhn
phm Delete. PowerPoint khng a ra cnh bo v vic bn mt mt slide.
Nu l tay xa mt slide, bn c th nhn nt Undo trn thanh cng c
phc hi li.
Khi lu bi thuyt trnh ln u, t menu File chn Save As. Chn th mc
m bn mun lu vo, in tn file v chn loi file bn mun lu trong hp
thoi Type (c thit lp theo mc nh).
5 Mi slide nn c mt tiu . Chng lm r thng ip ca slide v to tnh
mch lc cho bi thuyt trnh. Tiu r rng s gip bn trong vic t chc
ti liu. Bn s thy chng hu ch trong Slide Show View khi lt qua bi
thuyt trnh. Tiu cng cn thit trong PowerPoint khi bn chuyn bi
thuyt trnh sang trang Web, chng s tr thnh tn menu Web.
S l mt hay, nu cho ngi nghe xem trc slide h bit ni dung
ca bui thuyt trnh. Trong ca s New Slide, chn b cc danh sch c
nh du v thc hin cc thao tc sau:
Lu bi thuyt trnh bng cch chn Save t menu File (hoc biu tng
Microsoft Office phin bn PowerPoint mi).
Bn c th thay i thit k im nh du (bullet point), s dng Format >
Bullets and Numbering (hoc nhn vo mi tn cnh biu tng bullets trong
phin bn PowerPoint mi). trnh s ln xn, hy c gii hn s slide
c cng tiu , 6 hng trong mi slide v ti a 6 t trong mi hng. Nu
chnh v ch i hi phi vt gii hn trn, hy thm mt (hai hay ba)
slide na th tt hn l c a tt c ni dung cn thit vo cng mt slide.
Mt quy tc hay l hy 10-15% vng quanh cc cnh ca slide khng c
vn bn v biu . Ch s dng nhng t hay cm t kha vit tiu
v tiu ph trong slide.
280
Chng 7: Bo co
6 Thm mt slide mi bng cch nhn chut vo nt New Silde. Trong ca s
New Slide, chn b cc Title and two column (hoc two content), v lm thao
tc nh sau:
Hy thm mt slide mi nh Bc 6. Trong ca s New Slide, chn b cc

Title and content, ri lm theo cch sau:
chn Clip Art - nhn chut vo Insert v chn Clipart. Chn hnh m bn
mun v sau nhn nt Insert bn phi. Cc hnh nh trong ClipArt c
th di chuyn c v chnh kch c ging nh AutoShapes.
Tip tc thm mt slide mi. Trong ca s New Slide, chn b cc Title and
two content ri thao tc nh sau:
281
C th chn th bng cch nhn p chut trn hnh nh biu trn slide.
Mt biu mu dng bng d liu (Datasheet) cng s xut hin v bn c th
hiu chnh a thng tin biu ca mnh vo. Nu nhn phi chut trong
vng biu , nhng khng vo biu , mt menu s hin ln cho php bn
hiu chnh biu . Biu s t ng c chn vo bi thuyt trnh v c
th c hiu chnh ging nh th.
Mt s mo nh dng slide:
Hy thc hnh vi cc loi, kch c v mu sc. ng ngi vic in m, gch
di hoc in nghing, nu bn mun nhn mnh mt im no .
Hy to tiu ngn, khong 5 n 7 t, vic ny s lm ni bt thng tin
ca bn.
Hy s dng tt khong trng trong slide. Phng to th v to vn bn
ln d dng c c bt c ch no trong phng.
Hy nh dng slide theo chiu ngang (landscape), khng phi chiu dc
(portrait), nu bn khng mun mt phn ca slide nm khut tm mt.
ng c a qu nhiu d liu vo mt slide. Mi mt c trnh by trn
mt slide l l tng. Nu bn tp trung nhiu th v d liu mt ch,
ngi nghe c th mt hng th. Ngoi ra, s lng vn bn tng s buc
bn phi gim c ch, nn nhng ngi nghe xa s kh c hn.
Ti a l c hai th trong mt slide. iu ny s lm cho d liu ca bn
d hiu hn. Nu bn cn ti hai hnh minh ha, th phn vn bn i km
phi n gin.
Hy trnh vic slide c hnh nn ri mt. S dng nhiu mu hoc mu
chuyn c th khin vn bn kh c.
BI TP THC HNH 3
(20 PHT)
Hy to mt slide thuyt trnh v nhng ghi ch h tr c th c s dng bt

u mt bi thuyt trnh c ta l Internet l g?
282
Chng 7: Bo co
5.4 Xem v kim tra bi thuyt trnh PowerPoint

Sau khi hon thnh cc slide, chn View Show t menu Slide Show xem li bi thuyt
trnh (hoc chn tab Slide Show v nhn vo biu tng bt u From). Menu ny s
gip bn kim sot mi phn ca bi thuyt trnh, cho php s dng hiu ng hot hnh,
hiu ng chuyn tip slide v thay i trnh t xut hin ca cc mc trn slide. Hiu ng
chuyn tip slide xut hin gia cc slide, cn hiu ng hot hnh xut hin trn slide.
Theo mc nh, cc slide s nhy t slide ny n slide tip theo m khng c
bt k s chuyn tip no. thm hiu ng chuyn tip gia hai slide, nhn vo
Slide Show Slide Transition.
Lu rng ch No Transition (khng chuyn tip) ang c chn, nhng bn
c th dng phm mi tn hay di con tr la chn hiu ng chuyn tip. Bn c
th p dng hiu ng chuyn tip cho mt slide hoc cho ton b slide. i vi mu
sc, tt hn l s dng hiu ng chuyn tip mt cch thng nht - v d s dng mt
hoc hai hiu ng chuyn tip cho ton bi thuyt trnh, nhm to ra s thng nht v
mt trc quan. Lu rng cc slide c th nhy sang slide k tip khi bn nhn chut
hoc bn c th thit lp chng nhy sang slide k tip vi s giy c lp trnh.
Ty chn lp trnh ny c bit tt i vi nhng slide lp li, p dng cho qung co
hoc thng tin cng cng.
Nu mun thm hiu ng m thanh - nhng bn ch pht c m thanh nu cng
m thanh ca my tnh kt ni vi loa khi trnh by bi thuyt trnh. Hy nhn nt
Escape trn bn phm thot khi slide show.
thm hiu ng hot hnh, hy chn vn bn m bn mun ng dng v chn Preset Animation t menu Slide Show ri nhn vo mt trong cc kiu khc nhau. i vi
la chn hnh nh ng b, nhn phi chut vo vn bn bi en m bn mun
to hiu ng hot hnh v chn Custom Animation.
Thao tc ny s a ra rt nhiu la chn vi chc nng xem trc.
Kim tra l mt trong nhng thao tc quan trng to nn mt bi thuyt trnh thnh
cng, song thng l mt trong nhng thao tc b b qua. Bn nn kim tra phn
trnh din slide m bo rng mi th u theo mun ca bn. Ti bt c im
no, bn c th thay i ton b phn trnh din bng cch s dng cc chn la trn
menu Format. Sau , ng qun lu li nhng phn bn thao tc.
In
Bn c th in mu hoc in en trng ton b bi thuyt trnh - cc slide, cng,
ghi ch ca ngi thuyt trnh v ti liu cho ngi nghe. Tt c cc ch in n u
c trong File Print menu (hoc chn Print trong nt Office). Bt k bn in g, quy
trnh u ging nhau. Hy m bi thuyt trnh, chn cc slide, ti liu cho ngi nghe,
trang ghi ch hoc cng bn mun in.
Sau , bn xc nh slide in v s bn sao mong mun.

Bn c th to cc bn in mu hoc en trng trn giy bng knh s dng cho
my chiu giy bng knh. Khi in ti liu cho ngi nghe, bn c th in mt, hai, ba
hoc su slide trn mt trang.
283
5.5 AutoContent Wizard

Thay v i theo li c l dng Blank Presentation hoc Design Template, trong
PowerPoint 2003, chng ta c th chn trnh Wizard thc hin mi cng vic.
Nhn vo AutoContent Wizard, hp thoi AutoContent Wizard s hin th. Nhn Next
bt u. AutoContent Wizard hng dn bn tin hnh cc bc cn thit son
tho bi thuyt trnh vi ni dung c th.
Trong PowerPoint 2007, bn c th tip cn nhiu outlines thuyt trnh c sn t
Microsoft Office trc tuyn
284
Chng 7: Bo co
Bc u tin l chn loi bi thuyt trnh. Bn c th chn nhiu loi khc nhau,
hay chn All thy tt c mu trnh din c sn. Khi bn tm ra loi mong mun, hy
chn v nhn Next.
Bc th hai l chn kiu trnh chiu. Thng thng, bn s chn On-screen
presentation (trnh chiu trn mn hnh my tnh), nhng cng c th to mt bi
thuyt trnh a ln trang Web, chiu trn my chiu dng giy bng knh hoc
cho slide 35mm. Trong phn ny, chng ta s minh ha cc thao tc cho bi thuyt
trnh trnh chiu trn mn hnh my tnh. Sau khi chn On-screen presentation, bn
hy nhn Next.
Bc th ba l a ra nhng ty chn c bn, trong bao gm:
Tiu .
Thng tin cui trang (Footer) - y l vn bn xut hin cui ca mi slide.
V d logo cng ty bn hoc tn phng ban.
Ngy - Theo mc nh, chng trnh PowerPoint t ng th hin ngy gn
nht m slide ca bn c cp nhp (c lu) v s hin th ngy ti cui
mi slide. Nu bn khng mun hin th ngy, hy nhn vo hp thoi Date
Last Updated.
S trang slide - Chng trnh PowerPoint gi nh rn g bn mun th hin
s trang slide. Nu bn khng mun hin th s trang, hy nhn vo hp thoi
Slide Number.
Sau khi la chn, hy nhn Next v trn mn hnh Wizard cui cng, hy nhn
Finish. PowerPoint s hin th slide tiu vi nhng ty chn m bn a ra.
Bn c th cun chut qua cng c khi nim v nhng phn c xut
cho mt bi thuyt trnh thnh cng trn ch chn. V d, nu chn k hoch
marketing, bn s thy slide th hin bng tm tt th trng, nh ngha sn xut,
cnh tranh Bn c th s dng hoc khng s dng tt c cc mu slide; bn c
th thm nhng mu khc. thay i ni dung slide, bn di chuyn qua bn tri mn
hnh, chn v nhn vo slide mong mun.
285
TNG KT CHNG
Trong chng ny, chng ta xc nh c loi bo co chnh thc v cc yu t

cn c khi vit mt bo co chnh thc.
Nhng chc nng c bn ca Word bao gm m file, nhp v nh dng d

liu, to bng, lu cng vic v ng file khi bn hon thnh cng vic.
Vit bo co i hi nhng k nng mi nh to mu, s dng tiu , thm ghi

ch v bng.
Chng ta tho lun v cch son tho mt bi thuyt trnh v thu ht

ngi nghe.
S dng phn mm thuyt trnh gip ph bin thng tin mt cch hiu qu v
thuyt phc.
CU HI N TP
1 Loi bo co no thch hp vi nhng kt lun n gin?
2 Hy nu cc thnh phn ca mt bo co chnh thc.
3 Nu vn bn c cn l tri trong ti liu Word, th bn phi s trng nh th no?
4 Hy nu mt v d v li m khng c pht hin bi cng c kim tra chnh t.
5 Phn no ca bo co chnh thc c nh s?
6 Hy nu ba k thut nhn mnh bi thuyt trnh.
7 Nu ba phn trong bi thuyt trnh c th c minh ha bi chng trnh
PowerPoint.
P N CU HI N TP
1 Bo co bng th.
2 Tiu , phm vi tham chiu, gii thiu, phn chnh, kt lun, xut v tm tt
bo co.
3 Khng u.
4 Manger thay v manager. (V d p dng trong vn bn ting Anh.)
5 Ch c phn chnh.
6 Lp li, cu hi tu t, trch dn, thng k hoc phng i.
7 nh ngha, biu , th v s liu thng k.
286
Chng 7: Bo co
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 Nhng mc ch thch hp cho mt bo co chnh thc bao gm:
(a) Nghin cu mt lnh vc quan tm v li ch ca ngi no ;
(b) To ra tnh hung kinh doanh hoc tranh lun khc ng h hoc chng li mt
xut m ngi no ang xem xt;
(c) a ra xut cho qun l. Lu rng iu ny khng c ngha xut s c
thc hin; mc ch ca bo co ch n gin l a ra xut, nhng bn cn
tho lun bc tip theo m qun l yu cu nhng xut c thc thi;
(d) Trong mi tnh hung, bo co s khin mt iu g xy ra, ngay c khi nu mc
ch l tm thm cc d kin hoc khng lm g trong lc ny.
2 Mt s ty chn c a ra di y. Cc k thut lit k di y c
ng dng i vi nhiu bi thuyt trnh.
(a) Trong phn gii thiu, hy gii thch khi nim v trit l ng sau khi
nim h thng gi lm vic linh hot (flexitime);
(b) Hy a ra con s thng k v s vng mt thng xuyn ca nhn vin v
s lun chuyn lao ng chng minh cho lp lun ca bn;
(c) Hy nu mt trng hp thc t ca mt t chc khc, chng minh h
thng gi lm vic linh hot mang li li ch cho h;
(d) Hy a ra nhng trch dn v kin ca nhn vin lm vic t 9h n 17h
v nhn vin khc lm vic trong h thng gi lm vic linh hot;
(e) Trnh by mt lot nhng tnh hung (t quan im ca t chc v nhn
vin) trong cc vn - nhu cu theo ma, lch hn ca nha s, hon
chuyn i - c th c gii quyt bi h thng gi lm vic linh hot;
(f) Bng php so snh s tng ng (analogy), so snh h thng gi
lm vic linh hot vi gi hc c nh trng, vi thi gian hc sinh
hon thnh bi tp v nh ngoi gi hc trn trng.
3
Cng ngh. Internet l cng ngh cho php bt c my tnh no vi kt ni

vin thng c th trao i thng tin vi bt c my tnh no khc c trang b
ph hp.
Internet cng c gi l World Wide Web (www), siu xa l thng tin hoc
khng gian t khin, mc d v mt k thut, web gip cho Internet c s
dng mt cch d dng.
287

Trnh duyt web l mt phn mm c ti ln nhng my tnh c kt ni Internet cho php xem thng tin t Internet.
Thng tin Internet c cha trong cc trang web, t trang c nhn n trang
ca t chc ln cung cp nhiu dch v nh Amazon.co.uk v Lastminute.com.
Dch v truy cp Internet c cung cp bi Nh cung cp dch v Internet
(Internet Service Provider - ISP). Kt ni Internet c th c thc hin qua dy
in thoi (hay ISDN hoc bng thng rng) ni vi nh cung cp dch v Internet
(ISP) v sau l trn World Wide Web.
288
Chng 7: Bo co
GHI CH CUI CHNG
289
GHI CH CUI CHNG
290
Phn D
Phn mm to
thng tin
291
292
Chng
08
Cc h thng thng tin

qun tr
Cc yu cu thng tin
ca t chc
(Organisational
information requirements)
Cc h thng thng
tin qun tr
(Management
Information systems)
Cc loi h thng
thng tin
(Types of
information system)
Qun tr tri thc

(Knowledge management)
Gii thiu
chng ny, chng ti s gii thiu khi nim h thng thng tin. Chng ta bt u
vi cc yu cu thng tin ca t chc hin i v xem xt cc kha cnh khc nhau
ca vic s dng h thng thng tin gii quyt nhu cu ca doanh nghip v a
ra quyt nh.
Mc d c nhiu ngi c tuyn dng thit k v vn hnh cc h thng thng
tin, nhng ngy cng c nhiu c nhn tham gia vi t cch l ngi dng hoc
khch hng ca cc h thng thng tin. Ngi dng bao gm c nhn t nhiu
ngnh ngh khc nhau, t cng nhn trong nh my n qun l cp cao ca mt t
chc. Vic s dng h thng thng tin bao gm nhn bo co, trnh u vo cho h
thng, vn hnh thit b u cui hoc thc hin cc hot ng tng t.
Trong x hi phc tp ngy nay, kin thc v h thng thng tin trn my tnh l cn
thit i vi mt c nhn c trnh v hu ht cc t chc trong tng lai. Nu
khng phi l kin thc v h thng thng tin trn my tnh, th nhn t quyt nh
trong cnh tranh s l qu trnh x l v phn tch thng tin.
Mc tiu bi hc
nh gi c cc yu cu thng tin ca mt lot cc t chc.
Xc nh c cng c x l thng tin i vi cc cp vn hnh, chin
thut v chin lc ca t chc.
293
Hiu c c im chnh ca nhiu loi h thng thng tin qun tr (Management Information System - MIS) khc nhau v nh gi c cc h
thng IT khc nhau cung cp thng tin cho cc cp khc nhau trong t chc
nh th no (v d, H thng x l giao dch, H thng h tr ra quyt nh v
H thng thng tin iu hnh/h tr cho lnh o).
Hiu cch h tr qu trnh hoch nh chin lc ca cc m hnh c s d
liu v hoch nh (v d, c s d liu bn ngoi, m hnh kinh t, d bo v
cc gi phn mm/ng dng m hnh ha).
1 CC YU CU THNG TIN CA T CHC

Cc yu cu thng tin
ca t chc
(Organisational
Cc h thng thng
tin qun tr
(Management
Cc loi h thng
thng tin
(Types of
information system)
Qun tr tri thc

1.1 Thng tin dng lm g?

Nh chng ta bit, d liu l nguyn liu th ca qu trnh x l d liu. D liu bao
gm cc con s, k t v biu tng lin quan n cc s vic, s kin v giao dch.
Thng tin l d liu c x l theo cch c ngha i vi ngi tip nhn n.
Mi t chc u cn c thng tin cho cc mc ch ca mnh. Cc mc ch ny c
th c phn loi nh sau:
Hoch nh
Kim sot
Ghi chp giao dch
o lng hiu qu hot ng
a ra quyt nh
Hoch nh (planning)
Cng tc hoch nh i hi phi c kin thc v cc ngun lc hin c, thang thi
gian hp l v hu qu c th xy ra trong cc tnh hung khc nhau. Cn c thng
tin h tr qu trnh ra quyt nh v phng php thc hin cc quyt nh .
294
Chng 8: Cc h thng thng tin qun tr

Kim sot (controlling)
Mt khi k hoch c thc hin th cn phi kim sot hiu qu ca n. Cn c
thng tin nh gi xem k hoch c ang tin trin theo d kin hoc c sai lch
no so vi k hoch ban u hay khng v do cn c hnh ng iu chnh.
Ghi chp giao dch (recording transaction)
Cn phi c thng tin v mi giao dch hoc s kin bi:
(a) Ti liu ca cc giao dch c th c s dng lm bng chng trong trng
hp pht sinh tranh chp.
(b) C th c yu cu php l i vi vic ghi chp giao dch, v d cho cc mc
ch k ton v kim ton.
(c) Thng tin vn hnh c th c xy dng, cho php thc hin hot ng
kim tra.
o lng hiu qu hot ng (performance measurement)
Ging nh vic kim tra cc hot ng ring r, hiu qu hot ng tng th cng
cn c o lng. Nh , chng ta c th a ra cc kin so snh v ngn sch
hay k hoch. Cng tc ny c th bao gm vic thu thp thng tin v chi ph, doanh
thu, sn lng, thang thi gian v kh nng sinh li.
Ra quyt nh (decision-making)
Thng tin c cht lng tt s gip a ra cc quyt nh ng n.
1.2 Cc loi thng tin

Thng tin chin lc (strategic information)
Thng tin chin lc c s dng ra cc mc tiu ca t chc v nh gi
xem cc mc tiu c t c trn thc t hay khng. Cc thng tin chin lc
bao gm kh nng sinh li ca ton t chc hay ca cc b phn kinh doanh khc
nhau, vin cnh th trng tng lai, s sn c v chi ph huy ng vn, tng nhu
cu tin mt, tng cc cp bc nhn s v tng nhu cu v ti sn c nh.
Thng tin chin lc l thng tin:
Xut pht t c ngun ni b v ngun bn ngoi

c tng hp mc cao
Ph hp vi k hoch di hn
Lin quan n ton t chc
Thng c chun b trn c s ty bin (ad hoc)
C thng tin nh tnh v nh lng
Khng chc chn v khng th d on tng lai
Thng tin chin thut (tactical information)

Thng tin chin thut c dng quyt nh v kim sot cch s dng cc
ngun lc trong doanh nghip. Thng tin chin thut bao gm cc s o v nng
sut (sn lng trn mt gi cng lao ng hoc gi my), bo co kim sot ngn
sch hoc bo co phn tch phng sai v d bo dng tin, v tr nhn s v kt
qu li nhun trong mt b phn no ca doanh nghip, s liu thng k v mc
lun chuyn lao ng trong mt b phn v cc yu cu mua sm ngn hn.
295

Thng tin chin thut l thng tin:
Ch yu xut pht t ngun ni b (nhng c th c thm ngun bn ngoi

mc gii hn)
c tng hp mc thp hn
Ph hp vi k hoch ngn hn v trung hn
Lin quan n cc hot ng hoc cc b phn
c chun b u n v thng xuyn
Da trn cc s o nh lng
Thng tin vn hnh (operational information)

Thng tin vn hnh c s dng m bo rng cc nhim v c th c ra
v thc hin tt trong mt nh my hoc phng ban.
V d, ti phng tin lng, thng tin vn hnh lin quan n ngy cng v tin lng
tr cho ngi lao ng, bao gm cc thng tin nh s gi lm vic trong tun ca
mi nhn vin; lng theo gi ca nhn vin ; thng tin chi tit v cc khon chit
khu; v cc thng tin phc v mc ch phn tch tin lng, bao gm thng tin chi
tit v thi gian m mi nhn vin dnh cho cc cng vic c th trong tun. Trong
v d ny, thng tin c yu cu hng tun; nhng cc thng tin vn hnh khn cp
hn, nh lng nguyn liu th c a vo mt quy trnh sn xut, c th c
yu cu hng ngy hoc trong trng hp sn xut t ng ha th thng tin c
yu cu theo tng giy.
Thng tin vn hnh l thng tin:
Xut pht t cc ngun ni b

c chi tit ha, l kt qu ca qu trnh x l d liu th
Ph hp vi k hoch tc thi
C th v nhim v
c chun b rt thng xuyn
C tnh nh lng cao
BI TP THC HNH 1
(5 PHT)
Cc v d sau y thuc loi thng tin no?

Danh sch cc khon phi thu v cc khon phi tr
Chi tit v tin lng
Cc yu cu v vic s dng nguyn liu th
Danh sch kin khiu ni ca khch hng
S liu thng k u ra sn xut
K hoch giao hng
1.3 Yu cu thng tin trong cc ngnh khc nhau

Bng di y trnh by v d v cc yu cu thng tin thng gp ca t chc hot
ng trong cc ngnh khc nhau.
296

(a) Ngnh sn xut (manufacturing sector)
Loi thng tin V d
Chin lc
Chin thut
Vn hnh
Nhn xt chung
c tnh nhu cu tng lai

Yu cu thng tin ca cc
K hoch pht trin sn phm mi t chc thng mi b nh
Phn tch i th cnh tranh
hng bi nhu cu tm kim
v kim sot li nhun.
Phn tch phng sai
Thng tin lin quan ti cc
S sch ca cc phng ban
thc o sau y l thng tin
Vng quay hng tn kho
rt quan trng:
T l ph phm sn xut
Nguyn liu v nhn cng c

s dng
Mc tn kho
Thi gian chuyn i chu

trnh sn xut
S lng cc linh kin
chung
Mc a dng ca sn
phm
Cht lng sn phm v
quy trnh
(b) Ngnh dch v (service sector)

Loi thng tin V d
Chin lc
Chin thut
Vn hnh
Nhn xt chung
D bo tng trng doanh thu v Trong thp k qua, cc t

th phn
chc cng ngy cng hng
Kh nng sinh li, c cu vn
ti khch hng v kt qu. V
th, s chnh lch gia yu
Ti u ngun lc, v d thi gian cu v dch v v cc yu cu
trung bnh b ra, s lng khch thng tin khc ca t chc
hng trn mt th lm tc, s gim xung. Doanh nghip
lng nhn vin phc v mt nhn ra rng a s hot ng
khch hng ln.
ca mnh c th o lng
Mc hi lng ca khch hng. c; nhiu hot ng c th
o lng c theo cc cch
Bng chm cng
ging nhau, bt k cc hot
Thi gian i khch hng
ng thuc ngnh kinh
kin phn hi ca tng
doanh no.
khch hng
297

(c) Khu vc cng cng (public sector)
Loi thng tin V d
Chin lc
Chin thut
Vn hnh
Nhn xt chung
S liu thng k dn s
Cc t chc trong khu vc
Chnh sch ca Chnh ph theo cng cng (v phi li nhun)
d kin
thng khng c mt mc tiu
u tin. Yu cu thng tin ca
T l s ngi nm vin
h da trn cc mc tiu
S hc sinh trung bnh trong lp c la chn. Thng tin c
Phn trm cc v phm ti cung cp thng yu cu gii
trnh bo c gii quyt
trnh (v d, cht lng ging
dy khng phi l yu t duy
Bng chm cng
nht nh hng n kt qu thi
Phng tin hin c
Cc ghi chp v s s sinh vin ca sinh vin).
hng ngy trong lp
Thng tin c th so snh hiu

qu thc t vi:
Tiu chun
Mc tiu
Hot ng tng t
Ch s
Hot ng theo thi gian
nh xu hng
(d) Ngnh phi li nhun/t thin (non-profit/charities sector)

Loi thng tin V d
Nhn xt chung
Chin lc
Nhiu nhn xt lin quan n

cc t chc trong khu vc
cng cng c th p dng cho
cc t chc phi li nhun.
Chin thut
Vn hnh
298
Hot ng ca cc t chc t
thin khc
Chnh sch ca Chnh ph (v
trong mt s trng hp cn quan
tm c chnh sch ca Chnh ph
nc ngoi)
Thi ca cng chng
Thng tin nh gi hiu qu

hot ng thng nh
gi tnh kinh t, hiu lc v
Phn trm doanh thu chi cho hot hiu qu.
ng qun l
Phng php o lng hiu
S tin quyn gp trung bnh
qu chnh ca cc t chc
S liu thng k v s hi lng t thin l t l phn trm
ca Khch hng
doanh thu c chi cho mc
ch cng khai (v d,
Cc h gia nh quyn gp/
khng chi cho qung co
c tip cn
hoc hnh chnh).
Ti liu v hot ng chuyn tin
qua ngn hng
Hot ng quyn gp
2 CC LOI H THNG THNG TIN

Cc yu cu thng tin
ca t chc
(Organisational
Cc h thng thng
tin qun tr
(Management
Cc loi h thng
thng tin
(Types of
information system)
Qun tr tri thc

2.1 H thng thng tin qun tr l g?

NH NGHA
Hai nh ngha v thut ng H thng thng tin qun tr (MIS) c a ra di y:
H thng thng tin qun tr (Management Information System - MIS) chuyn d liu t cc
ngun ni b v bn ngoi thnh thng tin, ri truyn ti thng tin theo mt hnh thc thch hp
n lnh o tt c cc cp. iu ny cho php h a ra cc quyt nh kp thi v hiu qu cho
cng tc hoch nh, ch o v kim sot cc hot ng m h ph trch.
(Lucey T: Cc h thng thng tin qun tr)
H thng my tnh hoc nhm cc h thng lin quan thu thp v hin th thng tin qun tr cho
mt doanh nghip, to iu kin thun li cho vic kim sot.
(Hip hi K ton Qun tr Cng chng Anh Quc, Thut ng My tnh)
Chng ta bn nhiu v s cn thit phi thu thp v phn tch thng tin cc
chng trc, m khng dng li xem thng tin c t chc nh th no. Thng
tin l ngun lc kinh doanh chnh. Drucker cho rng b dng c ca lnh o bao
gm bn loi thng tin sau:
(a) Thng tin c s (foundation information), nh kh nng sinh li hay
dng tin, ch hu ch khi ch cho chng ta thy ci sai, nu c hin tng
khc thng.
(b) Thng tin v nng sut (productivity information) ang dn dn c xy
dng cho cc cng vic tri thc v cng tc dch v.
(c) Thng tin v nng lc (competence information): Nng lc l kh nng
lm mt ci g m nhng ngi khc khng th lm hoc lm khng tt.
299

Doanh nghip nn tm hiu k xem ci g doanh nghip mnh lm tt nht.
y khng phi l mt k thut sn xut, m ch l vic s dng thng tin
khch hng hoc chuyn mn trong hot ng logistics.
(d) Thng tin v phn b ngun lc (resource-allocation information) cho
chng ta bit cc ngun lc c s dng nh th no.
Bn loi thng tin ny lin quan n chin thut v cng vic kinh doanh hin
ti. Thng tin c t chc v mi trng bn ngoi rt cn thit cho vic hoch nh
chin lc ca doanh nghip, bi v t nht mt na s cng ngh mi, quan trng
gp phn chuyn i mt ngnh trong 50 nm qua u xut pht t bn ngoi ngnh
. Cc thng tin khng th d on, khng chnh thc hoc khng c cu trc.
V nguyn tc, mc d khng th cung cp tt c thng tin m cng tc qun tr cn,
nhng h thng thng tin qun tr (MIS) linh ng cho php cng tc qun
tr c th tng hp cc thng tin khng th d on, khng chnh thc hoc khng
c cu trc vo qu trnh ra quyt nh. V d, nhiu quyt nh c a ra vi s
h tr ca cc m hnh ti chnh nh bng tnh, v th nh hng ca cc tnh hung
mi c th c c lng mt cch d dng.
Mt t chc hin i cn c nhiu loi h thng thng tin lu tr, x l v phn
tch thng tin. By gi chng ta s xem xt cc h thng thng tin khc nhau c s
dng phc v cho yu cu thng tin ca t chc.
T chc cn c nhiu loi h thng thng tin cung cp cc cp thng tin
khc nhau trong nhiu lnh vc chc nng. Cch din gii quan im ny c trnh
by trn s sau (Tham kho t cun Cc H thng thng tin qun tr ca Laudon
v Laudon).
LOI H THNG
THNG TIN
NHM NHN
THNG TIN
Nh qun tr
cp cao
Cp chin lc
Cp qun tr
Nh qun tr
cp trung
Cp tri thc
Lao ng tri
thc v nhn
vin d liu
Cp vn
hnh
Bn hng v
Marketing
Nh qun tr
hot ng
Sn xut
Ti chnh
K ton
Nhn s
LNH VC CHC NNG
Hnh 8.1: Cc loi h thng thng tin
300
Cp
h thng
Mc ch h thng
Chin lc
h tr cc nh qun tr cp cao ra cc k hoch di hn.

Nhim v chnh ca h l m bo nhng thay i trong mi
trng bn ngoi ph hp vi nng lc ca t chc.
cp ny, h thng thng tin s khng chnh thc, tc l
khng phi lc no cng nh lng hoc lp trnh c thng
tin chin lc, do nhiu thng tin c th xut pht t cc
ngun bn ngoi. H thng thng tin qun tr s cung cp d liu
mc tng hp t qu trnh x l giao dch. Phn on ca
con ngi c s dng thng xuyn hn cp ny, v
khng phi quyt nh chin lc no cng c th lp trnh c.
Cc h thng doanh nghip phc tp, tch hp mc cao v quy
m ln c gi l cc h thng hoch nh ngun lc doanh
nghip (Enterprise Resource Planning - ERP). V d, h thng
SAP c s dng cp ny. Trn thc t, chng c th cn
thit, ph thuc vo phc tp ca cng vic kinh doanh v
mc cnh tranh.
Qun tr
H tr cc nh qun tr cp trung gim st v kim sot. Cc h

thng ny kim tra xem mi th c hot ng tt hay khng. Mt
s h thng cp chin thut h tr vic ra quyt nh ngn hn
nh phn tch nhn qu (what if analysis).
H thng thng tin qun tr s tng tc vi cc h thng cng
cp vn hnh vi n. Trn thc t, thng tin chin thut c
th c to ra trong cng hot ng x l ging nh thng tin
cp vn hnh. V d, thng tin cp chin thut so snh chi ph
thc t pht sinh vi ngn sch c th c to ra bng mt h
thng ghi chp cc chi ph . H thng thng tin qun tr chc
nng cp chin thut thng lin quan n cc h thng thng
tin qun tr chc nng khc nhau. V d, thng tin t h thng
thng tin qun tr bn hng s nh hng n h thng k ton
ti chnh.
Tri thc
gip cc lao ng tri thc v nhn vin d liu thit k sn

phm, truyn ti thng tin v thc hin cc nhim v qun tr.
Cc h thng ny gip t chc kt hp cc tri thc mi v hin
c vo doanh nghip v gim s ph thuc vo cc vn bn giy.
Vn hnh
gip cc nh iu hnh theo di cc hot ng hng ngy

ca t chc. Cc quyt nh vn hnh c quy m nh v c
lp trnh, do thng tin vn hnh thng l chnh thc v c
tnh nh lng cao. Nhiu quyt nh vn hnh c th c
tng hp vo qu trnh x l my tnh hng ngy, v d xc nh
mc doanh s c cp hn mc tn dng. Hu ht cc h
thng thng tin qun tr c s dng cp ny c th
gii p cc truy vn hng ngy, x l v theo di cc giao dch,
cp nht h s, v.v
301
e.g.
V D
H THNG TI CHNH CHI TIT
Trong mt h thng ti chnh chi tit, cp vn hnh s x l cc khon thu chi tin
mt, i chiu cc khon thanh ton qua ngn hng, v.v Cp chin thut s x l
cc thng tin d bo dng tin v qun l vn lu ng. Cc vn ti chnh cp
chin thut s c kt hp vi chin lc thng mi ca t chc, nhng c th
lin quan n hu ht cc ngun ti chnh tng ng.
2.2 H thng h tr iu hnh

NH NGHA
H thng h tr iu hnh (Executive Support System - ESS) tp hp d liu t cc ngun ni
b v bn ngoi, cung cp thng tin sn c cho cc nh qun tr cp cao theo mt hnh thc d
dng s dng. H thng h tr lnh o gip nh qun tr cp cao a ra cc quyt nh chin
lc, phi cu trc.
H thng h tr iu hnh s gip nh qun tr cp cao tip cn d dng vi cc thng
tin ni b v bn ngoi quan trng. H thng ny tng hp, theo di cc thng tin
quan trng c tnh chin lc t h thng thng tin qun tr v h thng h tr iu
hnh ni b, ng thi d liu t ngun bn ngoi nh cc i th cnh tranh, php
lut, c s d liu ca cc t chc nh Reuters.
H thng h tr iu hnh c th c cc c im sau:
(a) Linh ng.
(b) Thi gian phn hi nhanh.
(c) S dng cc cng c phn tch d liu v m hnh ha phc tp.
M hnh h thng h tr iu hnh c th c minh ha di y:
Trm lm vic ESS
Trm lm
vic ESS
Menu
ha
Truyn thng
X l ni b
Menu
ha
Truyn thng
X l ni b
D liu ni b
D liu bn ngoi
D liu ca H thng
x l giao dch (TPS)
D liu ti chnh
H thng vn phng
M hnh ha/phn tch
Gi chung
Nghin cu th trng
Php lut
i th cnh tranh
Trm lm
vic ESS
Menu
ha
Truyn thng
X l ni b
Hnh 8.2: H thng h tr iu hnh (ESS)

302
2.3 H thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS)

NH NGHA
H thng h tr ra quyt nh (Decision Support System - DSS) kt hp d liu v m hnh phn
tch hoc cng c phn tch d liu h tr vic ra cc quyt nh bn cu trc (semi-structured) v
phi cu trc (unstructured).
Cc nh qun tr s dng h thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS) trong qu trnh ra quyt
nh v cc vn phi cu trc vn c tnh bt n cao trong vic xc nh bn cht,
hoc ra quyt nh v hnh ng m nh qun tr c th thc hin khi cn cn nhc
v nh hng c th xy ra ca hnh ng .
Mc ch ca h thng h tr ra quyt nh l cung cp cc cng c thu thp v phn
tch thng tin khc nhau, ch trng ti tnh linh ng v thn thin vi ngi dng cc
cng c . H thng h tr ra quyt nh bao gm mt lot cc h thng, t m hnh
thng tin tng i n gin da trn bng tnh n h chuyn gia. Cc h thng
ny c kh nng phn tch v tng hp d liu cao hn bt k h thng no khc,
c th a ra thng tin c ng nht di hnh thc ph hp h tr nh qun l
ra quyt nh.
Mc d c gi l h thng h tr ra quyt nh, nhng cc h thng ny khng
thc s ra quyt nh. Mc tiu l cho php nh qun tr xem xt nhiu phng n
thay th v nh gi chng trong cc iu kin tim tng khc nhau. S hu ch chnh
ca cc h thng ny l kh nng hot ng mang tnh tng tc.
C s d liu trong h thng h tr ra quyt nh
NH NGHA
C s d liu (database) l mt tp hp d liu c cu trc, vi mc trng lp ti thiu, c
s dng chung cho mi ngi trong h thng, nhng khng ph thuc vo cc chng trnh s
dng d liu.
C s d liu c th tng ln v thay i theo tng giai on khc nhau trong phm
vi mt t chc. Thc ra, mt h thng s bao gm nhiu c s d liu; mi c s d
liu cung cp thng tin d kin cho mt s h thng thng tin qun tr c lin quan,
trong d liu c th c truy cp, c hay thay i ty theo yu cu. Mt s cng
ty thit k c s d liu marketing nhm truy cp d liu cn thit nhanh hn, cho
d d liu n t ngun ni b nh thng tin chi tit v doanh s bn hng hay t
ngun bn ngoi thng qua cc mng li nh Internet.
S di y cho thy tm quan trng ca c s d liu i vi cc h thng h
tr ra quyt nh.
303
H thng
h tr ra
quyt nh
Qun tr chin lc
Qun tr chin thut
Qun tr vn hnh
X l giao dch
C s d liu ca t chc v h thng qun l c s d liu
Hnh 8.3: C s d liu h tr H thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS)

Cc h thng c s d liu c mt s u im sau:
(a) D liu c s dng cho nhiu mc ch, nhng ch cn nhp v lu tr
mt ln trong c s d liu.
(b) Trong t chc, mt s d liu c s dng chung cho cc phng ban v h
thng c s d liu cho php thc hin iu ny. Nu mi phng ban duy tr
mt h thng d liu ring, th d kin v s liu ca h c th xung t vi
d kin v s liu ca phng ban khc.
(c) C s d liu h tr cc yu cu qun tr - c bit cp chin lc mc d
tt c cc cp u cn truy cp - v cung cp c bo co hng ngy v bo
co ty bin (ad hoc).
Loi d liu no s c lu tr trong c s d liu? C s d liu s cha cc d
liu sau:
(a) D liu chi tit v giao dch (kt qu x l bng cc chng trnh ng dng).
(b) D liu cho cc chng trnh hin ti v tng lai.
(c) D liu ghi chp hng ngy (t qu trnh x l khc).
C s d liu v h thng qun tr c s d liu (Database Management System DBMS) cho php nh qun tr truy cp v truy vn d liu theo yu cu. C th s dng
nhiu phn mm tng tc vi d liu ny khi cn tm cc phng n thay th v ra
quyt nh. V d:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
304
M hnh ha v m phng.
Bng tnh.
Phn tch thng k (tt c cc loi).
D bo.
Quy hoch tuyn tnh v phi tuyn tnh.
(f)
(g)
(h)
(i)
Phn tch hi quy.

M hnh ha ti chnh.
Phn tch nhy v ri ro.
H chuyn gia.
BI TP THC HNH 2
(15 PHT)
Gi s mt doanh nghip bn l c nhiu chi nhnh. Loi cu hi no m Ban Gim

c mun c cu tr li?
2.4 H chuyn gia v mng n-ron

NH NGHA
H chuyn gia (expert system) l chng trnh my tnh cho php ngi dng nhn c li ch t
tri thc, thng tin v t vn ca chuyn gia.
H chuyn gia lu tr nhiu d liu chuyn mn, v d, thng tin php l, k thut, y
t hoc cc vn v thu. H thng ny c cha mt c s tri thc, mt chng
trnh thu thp tri thc v m t suy din xc nh cc quy tc p dng v phn b
th t u tin. Ngi dng nhp vo cc d liu bit, c th theo cc gi t h
thng nu cn nhiu d liu hn, sau h thng s a ra mt gii php hoc t
vn ca chuyn gia. V d, ngy nay nhiu t chc ti chnh ang s dng h chuyn
gia x l cc n vay vn. Ngi dng nhp mt s d liu nh tn ngi, a ch
hin ti, mc thu nhp v chi tiu hng thng cng thng tin chi tit v cc khon vay
khc ca ngi vay vn vo h thng. Sau h thng s lm vic theo trnh t sau:
(a) Tra cu d liu nhp trong c s d liu kim tra xem ngi xin vay
vn c h s tn dng tt trong qu kh hay khng.
(b) Thc hin cc tnh ton kim tra xem ngi vay vn c kh nng hon
vn hay khng.
(c) nh gi xem chng mc no ngi xin vay vn p ng c yu cu
v mc ri ro thp ca ngi cho vay (da trn kinh nghim ca ngi
cho vay).
(d) xut quyt nh.
V d v cc ng dng khc ca h chuyn gia c nu di y:
(a) T vn thu - ngi dng khng c nhiu kin thc v thu c th xin kin
ca h chuyn gia v thu c hng dn cc vn no v thu.
(b) Cc vn php l - ngi dng khng c kin thc nn tng v lut php
c th c hng dn v php l m khng cn phi xin kin lut s - v
d, v cc vn mua ti sn hoc t vn php lut cho cng ty.
(c) D bo v cc din bin kinh t hay ti chnh hoc d bo v th trng v
hnh vi khch hng.
(d) Gim st, v d gim st s lng khch hng vo siu th xc nh cc k
hng cn phi sp xp nh th no v cn m bao nhiu quy tnh tin, hoc
gim st my mc trong nh my xc nh xem khi no cn bo dng.
(e) H thng chn on nhm xc nh nguyn nhn ca vn , v d kim sot
sn xut trong nh my hoc chn on bnh ti trung tm y t.
(f) Gio dc v o to, v d pht hin nhng yu km ca sinh vin hoc nhn
vin v a ra nhng hng dn ph hp.
305

H chuyn gia khng thch hp cho cc vn phi cu trc mc cao, v h thng
ny yu cu thng tin t nhiu ngun khc nhau ch khng ch n thun l quyt
nh la chn gia mt vi phng n thay th bit.
BI TP THC HNH 3
(10 PHT)
Bn ngh tm quan trng ca mt s h thng thng tin qun tr i vi h thng phn

cp qun tr ca t chc l g?
Mng n-ron
Mng n-ron l mt ng dng ca tr tu nhn to (Artificial Intelligence - AI), c
mt s ngi coi l bc tip theo trong cng ngh tnh ton. Mng n-ron l m
hnh tnh ton m phng theo cc qu trnh sinh hc ca no con ngi.
Mng n-ron (neural network) c th hc t kinh nghim. Chng c th phn tch
mt lng ln d liu phc tp nhn dng mu cho vic d on. Chng c kh
nng x l nhng d liu khng hon chnh hoc khng r rng, tc d liu m
(fuzzy data), do c th i ph vi cc tnh hung khng c xc nh trc ,
hay cn gi l cc tnh hung mi.
K thut n-ron c p dng cho cc lnh vc khc nhau nh h chuyn gia, v
d h thng nh gi ri ro tn dng. K thut n-ron tin tin hn ch chng khng
ph thuc vo mt b cc quy tc cng nhc, m pht trin mt lp kinh nghim n
v a ra quyt nh da trn nhng kinh nghim ny.
Di y l s mt mng n-ron:
Lp u vo
Lp n
Lp u ra
Thu nhp
Ri ro tn
dng thp
Tui tc
Ri ro tn
dng cao
H s
thanh ton
Hnh 8.4: Mng n-ron
306
2.5 H thng lm vic tri thc

NH NGHA
H thng lm vic tri thc (Knowledge Work System - KWS) l h thng thng tin thc y s sng
to v p dng tri thc mi vo mt t chc.
Lao ng tri thc (knowledge worker) l ngi c cng vic chnh l to ra thng tin v tri
thc mi. H thng l thnh vin ca mt t chc chuyn mn nh bc s, k s, lut s v
nh khoa hc.
H thng lm vic tri thc gip lao ng tri thc to ra cc kin thc v chuyn mn
mi, v d:
Thit k bng my tnh (CAD)

Sn xut bng my tnh (CAM)
Phn mm ti chnh chuyn ngnh phn tch cc tnh hung giao dch
2.6 H thng t ng ha vn phng (OAS)

NH NGHA
H thng t ng ha vn phng (Office Automation System - OAS) l h thng my tnh c
thit k tng nng sut ca nhn vin x l d liu v thng tin.
H thng t ng ha vn phng h tr cc hot ng chnh c thc hin ti mt
vn phng thng thng nh qun l ti liu, h tr giao tip v qun l d liu. V d:
Cc h thng x l vn bn, ch bn vn phng v h thng qun l h s

k thut s
Th in t, th thoi, hi ngh truyn hnh, phn mm nhm, mng intranet
v trnh lp lch
Bng tnh, c s d liu cho my tnh
2.7 H thng x l giao dch (TPS)

NH NGHA
H thng x l giao dch (Transaction Processing System - TPS) thc hin v ghi chp cc giao
dch hng ngy.
H thng x l giao dch c s dng cho cc cng vic hng ngy, trong phn
t d liu hoc giao dch phi c x l duy tr cc hot ng. H thng x l
giao dch h tr a s chc nng kinh doanh trong hu ht cc t chc. Bng di
y trnh by cc ng dng ca h thng x l giao dch:
307
H thng x l giao dch

H thng
bn hng/
marketing
H thng
ch to/
sn xut
H thng
ti chnh/
k ton
H thng
nhn s
Cc loi h
thng khc
(v d, trng
i hc)
Cc
chc
nng
chnh
ca
h
thng
Qun l
bn hng
Nghin
cu th
trng
Hot
ng xc
tin
nh gi
Sn phm
mi
Lp lch
trnh
Mua sm
Vn
chuyn/
nhn
hng
K thut
Hot
ng sn
xut
Lp ngn
sch
S nht
k chung
Vit ha
n
K ton
qun tr
H s
nhn s
Ph cp
Lng
Quan h
nhn s
o to
Nhp hc
Thnh tch
hc tp ca
sinh vin
H s kha
hc
Tt nghip
Cc
h
thng
ng
dng
chnh
H thng
thng tin
n t
hng
H thng
nghin
cu th
trng
H thng
nh gi
Hoch
nh
ngun
nguyn
liu
Kim
sot n
t hng
K thut
Kim
sot cht
lng
S nht
k chung
Khon
phi thu
/Khon
phi tr
Lp ngn
sch
Qun l
qu
Tin lng
H s
nhn vin
Ph cp
ca nhn
vin
H thng
nh
hng
ngh
nghip
ng k
H s sinh
vin
H thng
qun l
chng
trnh ging
dy/h
thng qun
l lp hc
H thng
thng tin
ngi ti tr
X l theo l v x l tc thi
Mt h thng x l giao dch s x l cc giao dch bng phng php x l theo l
(batch) hoc x l tc thi (online).
Theo phng php x l theo l, cc giao dch c tp hp v lu tr trc khi
c x l cc khong thi gian nht nh, v d: hng ngy, hng tun hoc hng
thng. V d liu khng c nhp vo ngay khi chng c nhn, nn h thng s
khng th cp nht lin tc.
Do thng tin khng cp nht, nn phng php x l theo l khng phi lc no cng
ph hp vi cc h thng giao dch vi khch hng. X l theo l thch hp cho cc
cng vic ni b v thng xuyn, v d trong cc h thng tnh lng.
Theo phng php x l tc thi, cc giao dch c nhp vo v x l ngay lp tc,
v d: h thng bn v my bay v h thng ng k gi ch trc.
2.8 H thng thng tin: cp, loi v chc nng

V d v cp v loi h thng thng tin m chng ta tho lun trong phn ny c
minh ha trong s di y:
308

Cc h thng cp chin lc
LOI H THNG
H thng h tr iu hnh
(Executive Support
System - ESS)
D bo xu
hng bn
hng trong
5 nm ti
K hoch
hot ng
trong 5
nm ti
D bo
ngn sch
trong 5
nm ti
Hoch
nh
li
nhun
Hoch
nh
ngun
nhn lc
Cc h thng cp qun tr
H thng h tr qun tr
(Management Support
System - MSS)
H thng h tr ra quyt
nh (Decision Support
System - DSS)
H thng xut bo co
(Export System - ES)
H thng lm vic tri thc
(Knowledge Work System
- KWS)
H thng t ng ha vn
phng (Office Automation
System - OAS)
Qun l
bn hng
Qun l
hng tn
kho
Lp ngn
sch hng
nm
Phn tch
u t vn
Phn tch
ti nh v
Phn tch Ln lch

vng bn trnh sn
hng
xut
Phn tch
chi ph
Phn tch
kh nng
sinh li/
phn tch
nh gi
Phn tch
chi ph
theo hp
ng
Cc h thng cp tri thc

Trm lm vic thit k
k thut
Trm lm vic
ha
Trm lm vic qun l
X l vn bn
nh ha vn bn
Lch in t
Cc h thng cp vn hnh
Kim sot my
mc
H thng x l giao dch
(Transaction Processing
System - TPS)
Giao dch
chng
khon
Bng
lng
Bi
thng
Khon
phi tr
o to &
pht trin
Khon
phi thu
Lu tr
h s
nhn vin
Theo di n
t hng
Lp k hoch
phn xng
X l n
t hng
Kim sot vn
chuyn nguyn
vt liu
Qun l
tin mt
Bn hng v
Marketing
Sn xut
Ti chnh K ton
Nhn s
Hnh 8.5: H thng thng tin: cp, loi v chc nng
3 QUN TR TRI THC

Cc yu cu thng tin
ca t chc
(Organisational
Cc h thng thng
tin qun tr
(Management
Cc loi h thng
thng tin
(Types of
information system)
Qun tr tri thc

309
3.1 Qun tr tri thc l g?

Cc nghin cu ch ra rng 20%-30% ngun lc cng ty b lng ph v cc t chc
khng nhn thc c h s hu tri thc g. Lew Platt, Trng ban Hnh chnh
Qun tr ca Hewlett Packard ch r iu ny khi tha nhn ch cn HP bit c
rng HP bit nhng g, th chng ta s kim c li nhun cao gp ba ln.
NH NGHA
Tri thc (knowledge) l thng tin cha trong tr tu ca con ngi.
Qun tr tri thc (knowledge management) l qu trnh thu thp, lu tr v s dng tri thc trong
mt t chc.
Hin nay, nhn chung tri thc c nh gi l ngun u th cnh tranh c th xc
nh c v cn c cc cng ty khai khc. Trong mt k nguyn thay i nhanh
chng v bt n nh hin nay, cc cng ty phi sng to, nui dng v ph bin
tri thc mi trong ton t chc; v c th ha tri thc trong cng ngh, sn
phm v dch v. Nhiu ngnh - nh dch v ti chnh - ph thuc vo tri thc vi vai
tr l phng tin chnh to ra gi tr.
Tri thc v cng qu gi v con ngi s dng n a ra cc tng mi, quan
nim v cch din gii mi c th p dng cho vic s dng thng tin v ra quyt nh.
Tuy nhin, cng ging nh thng tin, tri thc s khng c gi tr nu khng c p
dng cho cc quyt nh v hnh ng trong mt bi cnh kinh doanh c mc ch.
Mi ngi trong t chc lin tc chuyn tri thc thnh nhiu dng thng tin khc
nhau (li nhn, bo co, th in t, ch dn) v tm kim thng tin cho nhng
ngi khc nng cao hiu bit ca h.
Cc chng trnh qun tr tri thc nhm mc ch:
(a) Thit k, thit lp quy trnh v k thut sng to, bo v v s dng tri
thc hin - explicit knowledge (tc l tri thc m mt cng ty bit mnh c).
Tri thc hin bao gm cc s liu, giao dch v s kin c dn chng r
rng v lu tr trong cc h thng thng tin qun l.
(b) Thit k, to ra cc mi trng v hot ng khm ph, ph bin tri thc
n - tacit knowledge (tc l tri thc m cng ty khng bit mnh c). Tri
thc n c hiu ngm hoc suy lun; lin quan n cc cm ngh v kinh
nghim c lu tr trong tr tu ca con ngi.
Cc t chc nn khuyn khch mi ngi chia s tri thc. Vic ny c th c thc
hin thng qua vic qun l nng cao thng tin v ni lu tr tri thc, cch vn
dng v ti s dng tri thc v khi no n c th to ra gi tr kinh doanh ln hn
thng qua cc tng mi v s ci tin.
Hng lot cng ngh c sn h tr qun tr tri thc. Ba chui nhim v chnh l
tm kim thng tin, qun l ti liu v x l lung cng vic.
Qu trnh m t chc xy dng kho tri thc i khi cn c gi l qu trnh hc tp
ca t chc. Ct li ca mt t chc hc tp xoay quanh con ngi sng lp ra t chc
v tri thc m h c. T chc v nhn vin tn dng v chia s kho tri thc trung tm.
T chc s dng kho tri thc nh mt cng c t o to mnh v cc nhn vin.
310
3.2 Qun tr tri thc hay qun tr thng tin?

C nhiu phng php tip cn khc nhau i vi qun tr tri thc, bao gm qun l
ti liu, qun tr thng tin, thng tin v hot ng kinh doanh, qun tr nng lc, qun tr
h thng thng tin, qun tr ti sn tri thc, ci tin, thit k quy trnh kinh doanh, v.v
V th, bn cho rng qun tr tri thc ch l mt khi nim khc, rng hn khi nim
qun tr thng tin?
(a) Trn thc t, nhiu d n qun tr tri thc c mt yu t qun tr thng tin
quan trng. Xt cho cng, mi ngi cn thng tin v ni lu tr tri thc v
chia s tri thc mnh cn chuyn n thnh mt dng thng tin t nhiu
mang tnh cht nht thi.
(b) Tuy nhin, hn c th, qun tr tri thc c hai nhim v ring bit: h tr vic
to ra tri thc v qun l cch mi ngi chia s v p dng tri thc. Cc
cng ty thnh cng vi qun tr tri thc s nhn ra rng qun tr tri thc
cp n qun l con ngi nhiu nh cp n thng tin v cng ngh.
3.3 Cc loi h thng no h tr qun tr tri thc?

H thng thng tin ng mt vai tr quan trng trong qun tr tri thc. Nh cc lung
thng tin trong h thng m tri thc s c thu thp chnh thc trong phm vi ca
t chc.
Bt k h thng no khuyn khch mi ngi lm vic cng nhau ng thi chia s
thng tin v tri thc, th s h tr cng tc qun tr tri thc. V d c trnh by trong
bng sau:
Hot ng do
h thng h tr
V d
Phn phi
tri thc
H thng t ng ha vn phng
X l vn bn
Nh chng ta bit, h thng t ng Lp lch in t

ha vn phng l bt k ng dng no
C s d liu trn
ca cng ngh thng tin lm tng nng
my tnh
sut trong mt vn phng.
Xut bn web
Qun tr tri thc ph thuc vo hiu
qu sn xut, phn phi ti liu v cc Th thoi
hnh thc trao i thng tin khc nh Th in t
h thng tin nhn thoi.
H thng nh ha vn bn chuyn vn
bn v hnh nh thnh cc dng s,
gip gim nhu cu s dng giy t.
Chia s tri thc
H thng cng tc nhm
Phn mm nhm
Mng intranet
Mng extranet
Sng to tri thc H thng lm vic tri thc
CAD
Thc t o
Trm lm vic u t
311
Hot ng do
h thng h tr
V d
Thu thp v m
ha tri thc
H thng tr tu nhn to (AI)
H chuyn gia
Tr tu nhn to l pht trin ca cc

h thng my tnh c thit k
hot ng ging nh con ngi. H
thng tr tu nhn to m phng kinh
nghim, tri thc v cch suy lun ca
con ngi.
Mng n-ron
Lgc m
Tc nhn thng minh
Khoa hc ngi my
Cc cng c lp trnh
ngn ng t nhin
3.4 Chia s tri thc

Phn mm nhm
NH NGHA
Phn mm nhm (groupware) l mt thut ng m t phn mm cung cp chc nng cho cc
nhm lm vic hp tc
Thng thng, nhm s dng phn mm nhm l nhm d n nh, m nhim cc
cng vic quan trng v quy nh cht ch v thi hn hon thnh. C l, mt trong
nhng sn phm phn mm nhm ni ting nht l Lotus Notes. Tuy nhin, cng c
nhiu sn phm v cng ngh lin quan khc.
Cc c im ca phn mm nhm bao gm:
(a) Mt trnh lp lch (scheduler) cho php ngi dng theo di tin v ln
k hoch hp vi nhng ngi khc.
(b) Mt s a ch (address book) in t gip cho thng tin lin h c nhn v
doanh nghip c cp nht v d dng tm kim. Thng tin lin h c th
c phn loi v sp xp theo nhiu cch.
(c) Danh sch nhng vic phi lm (to do). Danh sch nhng vic phi lm
ca c nhn v doanh nghip c th c lu tr mt ni d dng qun l
v cng vic c th c sp xp theo th t u tin mt cch nhanh chng.
(d) Mt s nht k (journal) dng ghi li nhng ni dung trao i th tn vi
nhng ngi quan trng, mc ghi chp (nh tin nhn qua th in t) v
cc file quan trng vi ngi dng, ng thi ghi chp mi loi hot ng
v khi cn thit c th tm kim thng tin ghi li m khng phi nh ni
lu tr chng.
(e) Mt s tay (jotter) ghi chp nhanh nhng ghi ch nh cu hi, tng, v.v
R rng l rt thun tin khi thng tin c yu cu s hin th trn mn hnh sau khi
nhn nt, ch khng l thuc vo nhng mnh giy nh, s a ch v danh b in
thoi ca doanh nghip. D nhin, iu ny ch tr thnh thc t khi s dng phn
mm nhm chia s thng tin vi ng nghip. Di y l mt s c im ca
phn mm nhm:
312

(a) Truyn thng ip, lin quan ti vic s dng hp th in t (email)
gi, nhn thng bo t vn phng, nh hoc ng ph v cc chc nng
nh tuyn, gip ngi dng c th gi thng ip n mt ngi, sau
gi chuyn tip thng ip n nhiu ngi khc (nhng ngi ny c th
b sung hoc ghi thm nhn xt vo thng ip trc khi gi i), hoc cng
lc gi thng ip n mi ngi.
(b) Truy cp mt c s d liu thng tin v ty bin quan st thng tin
c lu tr trong c s d liu di cc gc nhn khc nhau. y cng l
phng php chun ha cch xem thng tin trong mt nhm lm vic.
(c) Lp lch theo nhm theo di hnh trnh ca cc ng nghip. V d,
Microsoft Exchange Server c cng c Meeting Wizard gip tra cu nht k
ca mi ngi tham d bit thi gian no ph hp vi h, phng hp no
cha t lch v ngun nhn lc no cn c.
(d) Th mc chung tp hp, t chc v chia s file vi ngi khc trong nhm
hoc ton t chc.
(e) Mt ngi (v d, th k hay ngi lm vic thay ca cho ngi khc ang
ngh php hoc ngh m) c th c php truy cp y thc cc th mc
nhm lm vic ca ngi khc, thay mt h gi email hoc c, to cc mc
th mc cng cng v c nhn ca ngi y thc.
(f) T chc hi ngh. Tham gia tho lun cng khai, trc tuyn vi nhng
ngi khc.
(g) Phn cng cng vic. Yu cu cng vic c th c gi n cho ng
nghip - ngi ny c th chp nhn, t chi hoc giao li cng vic cho
ngi khc. Sau khi cng vic c chp nhn th phn mm nhm s cp
nht trng thi ca cng vic vo danh sch cng vic.
(h) Cc chc nng b phiu. c thc hin di hnh thc gi phiu trng
cu (cu hi c nhiu la chn) qua thng ip th (v d, y l danh sch
cc la chn cho bui tic Ging sinh nm nay).
(i) Siu lin kt (hyperlink) trong mt thng ip th. Ngi nhn c th nhn vo
siu lin kt i n mt trang web hoc my ch file (file server) trong mng.
(j) Qun l lung cng vic (xem bn di) vi nhiu mc phc tp
khc nhau.
Lung cng vic (workflow) l mt thut ng c s dng m t mt lot cng
vic c xc nh trong ni b mt t chc to ra kt qu cui cng. Cc ng
dng my tnh qun l lung cng vic phc tp cho php ngi dng xc nh lung
cng vic khc nhau cho cc loi cng vic khc nhau. V d, trong cng vic xut
bn, mt vn bn c th c t ng truyn t ngi vit n ngi bin tp c
r sot (proofread) trc khi xut bn.
mi giai on trong lung cng vic, mt c nhn hoc nhm s chu trch
nhim cho mt cng vic c th. Khi cng vic c hon thnh, phn mm lung
cng vic s m bo rng c nhn ph trch cng vic tip theo c thng bo v
nhn d liu cn thit hon thnh giai on ca mnh trong quy trnh.
H thng lung cng vic c th c m t theo loi quy trnh chng c thit k
x l. C ba loi lung cng vic ph bin sau:
(a) H thng lung cng vic da trn hnh nh (image-based workflow
system) c thit k t ng ha lung lun chuyn giy t trong mt t
chc, bng cch chuyn giy t thnh hnh nh s. y l nhng h thng
lung cng vic u tin c s dng ph bin. Cc h thng ny lin quan
313

cht ch vi cng ngh nh ha (hay cn gi l x l hnh nh vn bn (document image processing - DIP)) v c chc nng nh tuyn v x l cc
hnh nh c s ha.
(b) H thng lung cng vic da trn bng biu (form-based workflow
system) (Lung cng vic theo bng mu) c thit k nh tuyn
cc bng biu mt cch thng minh trong mt t chc. Khng ging hnh
nh, bng biu c hnh thc vn bn v bao gm cc trng c th chnh
sa. Bng biu c t ng nh tuyn theo thng tin nhp vo. Ngoi ra,
cc h thng da trn bng biu ny c th thng bo hoc nhc nh mi
ngi khi no cn hnh ng.
(c) H thng lung cng vic da trn s phi hp (co-ordination-based
workflow system) c thit k gip hon tt cng vic, bng cch cung
cp mt khung lm vic (framework) nhm phi hp hot ng. Cc h
thng ny hng ti mc tiu tng nng sut ca t chc bng cch gii
quyt cc vn cn thit tha mn khch hng, hn l t ng ha cc
th tc khng lin quan cht ch n s hi lng ca khch hng.
Mng intranet
NH NGHA
Mng intranet l mng ni b c s dng chia s thng tin. Mng intranet s dng cng ngh v
cc giao thc Internet. Tng la bao quanh mt mng ni b ngn cn vic truy cp tri php.
tng mng intranet xut pht t vic cc cng ty mun thit lp cc phin bn
Internet quy m nh ca ring mnh. Mng intranet s dng cc my tnh ni mng
ca t chc v cng ngh Internet. Mi nhn vin c mt trnh duyt truy cp vo
my ch lu tr nhiu loi thng tin ca doanh nghip, trong mt s trng hp mng
intranet cng cho php truy cp Internet.
Cc ng dng tim nng bao gm bo in t ca cng ty, ti liu gii thiu v cng
ty, hng dn v cc th tc v chnh sch, trang web cho nhn vin trong c nhn
gi thng tin chi tit v cc hot ng v tin ca mnh cng nh c s d liu
ni b ca kho thng tin trong doanh nghip.
Phn ln chi ph ca mt mng intranet l thi gian cn thit thit lp h thng.
Cc li ch ca mng ni b rt a dng.
(a) Cc khon tit kim c c t vic loi b kho lu tr, vic in v phn
pht ti liu m gi y sn c cho cc nhn vin s dng trc tuyn.
(b) Cc ti liu trc tuyn thng c s dng rng ri hn cc ti liu giy
c ng thnh tp, c bit vi cc ti liu cng knh (v d sch cm
nang) v phi tra cu. iu ny c ngha l nng sut v hiu qu lm vic
c nng ln.
(c) D dng cp nht thng tin di dng in t hn.
(d) Vic truy cp thng tin ca doanh nghip mt cch rng ri hn s to ra cc
m hnh lm vic linh ng hn, v d c th truy cp t xa cc ti liu c
sn trn mng.
314

Mng extranet
NH NGHA
Mng extranet l mt mng intranet m nhng ngi bn ngoi c th truy cp.
Trong khi mng intranet nm pha sau tng la v ch nhng thnh vin ca cng ty
hoc t chc mi c th truy cp, th mng extranet cung cp nhiu mc tip cn
khc nhau cho nhng ngi ngoi cng ty.
Ch c nhng ngi bn ngoi c tn truy cp v mt khu hp l mi c th truy
cp mng extranet, vi nhiu mc quyn truy cp (levels of access rights) khc
nhau cho php kim sot nhng g m mi ngi c th xem. Mng extranet ang
dn tr thnh mt phng tin rt ph bin cho php cc i tc kinh doanh chia
s thng tin.
Do , mng extranet cho php s dng tt hn tri thc ca mt t chc - bng cch
thc y vic tip cn vi cc tri thc .
3.5 Sng to tri thc

H thng lm vic tri thc (KWS)
H thng lm vic tri thc (Knowledge Work System - KWS) l h thng thng tin h
tr vic sng to v tch hp tri thc mi trong mt t chc. H thng lm vic tri thc
cung cp cho lao ng tri thc (knowledge worker) cc cng c nh:
Cng c phn tch

Cc tin ch ha mnh
Cc cng c giao tip
Truy cp cc c s d liu bn ngoi
Giao din thn thin vi ngi dng
Khu vc lm vic ca lao ng tri thc thng c thit k theo cc cng vic c th
m h thc hin. V d, k s thit k cn thit b c nng lc ha thao tc
vi cc hnh nh thit k ba chiu vi s tr gip ca my tnh (3-D Computer-aided
design - CAD); nh phn tch ti chnh phi c my tnh vi nng lc x l cao tip
cn v tnh ton vi mt s lng ln d liu ti chnh (khu vc lm vic u t ti
chnh - investment workstation).
Cc thnh phn ca mt h thng lm vic tri thc c biu din trong s sau:
315
C s tri thc
bn ngoi
ha
M hnh ha
Qun l ti liu
Giao tip
PHN MM
Trc quan
M phng
Giao din
ngi dng
Nn tng phn cng: khu vc lm vic tri thc
Hnh 8.6: H thng lm vic tri thc

H thng thc t o (virtual reality system) l mt v d khc ca h thng lm
vic tri thc. Cc h thng m phng bng my tnh cc hot ng ca th gii thc
(real-world activities). Phn mm tng tc v phn cng (v d, thit b eo ln u
c bit - headgear) to ra cc m phng tht n ni ngi dng c c nhng
cm nhn nh th gii thc.
e.g.
V D
THC T O (VIRTUAL REALITY)
Burger King s dng ca hng thc t o kim tra thit k ca hng mi.
Volvo xy dng h thng li xe th nghim thc t o khi pht trin cc dng
xe mi.
TNG KT CHNG
316
T chc cn c thng tin ghi chp giao dch, o lng hiu qu hot ng, ra
quyt nh, hoch nh v kim sot.
Yu cu thng tin ca mt t chc s b nh hng bi ngnh m t chc

hot ng.
Thng tin c th mang tnh chin lc, chin thut hoc vn hnh.
C nhiu h thng lu tr, x l v phn tch thng tin nh H thng h tr iu

hnh (ESS), H thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS), H thng lm vic tri thc
(KWS), H thng t ng ha vn phng (OAS) v H thng x l giao dch (TPS).
H thng thng tin phi c thit k thu thp thng tin t tt c cc ngun
lin quan - c ni b v bn ngoi.
Cn c cc h thng thng tin hiu qu mi cp trong t chc h tr qu

trnh ra quyt nh.
H thng h tr ra quyt nh cho php nh qun tr xem xt mi phng n thay

th v nh gi chng trong cc iu kin tim tng khc nhau.
H thng h tr iu hnh c cc d liu tng hp v chi tit cng cc chc nng

x l, phn tch d liu, ha v bng mu.
H chuyn gia l chng trnh my tnh cho php ngi dng hng li t kin
thc, thng tin v t vn ca chuyn gia.
CU HI N TP
1 Phn bit thng tin chin lc, chin thut v vn hnh.
2 Nu hai v d v thng tin chin lc, chin thut v vn hnh lin quan n mt
t chc hot ng trong ngnh sn xut.
3 Phn bit x l theo l v x l tc thi.
4 H thng h tr ra quyt nh c s dng cho cc quyt nh hng ngy.
NG hay SAI?
5 H thng h tr ra quyt nh s dng lm g?
6 Mt s ng dng ca h chuyn gia l g?
P N CU HI N TP
1 Thng tin chin lc c s dng ra cc mc tiu ca t chc.
Thng tin chin thut c s dng quyt nh cch s dng cc ngun
lc ca doanh nghip v kim sot cch thc cc ngun lc v ang c
s dng.
Thng tin vn hnh c s dng m bo cc nhim v c th c ra
v thc hin tt.
2 Hai v d v thng tin chin lc:
(i) Truyn t mc tiu ca doanh nghip ti nh qun tr ca doanh nghip, th
hin bng cc con s nh li nhun mc tiu v cc s o gi tr ti sn nh
li trn mt c phn.
(ii) Truyn t thng tin v chin lc mua li mt cng ty hot ng trong lnh
vc khc trong tng lai nh mt bin php phng chng ri ro.
Hai v d v thng tin chin thut:
(i) Ngn sch bn hng mi hai thng c phn tch cho tng nhm sn phm.
(ii) K hoch sn xut cho mi hai thng ti.
317

Hai v d v thng tin vn hnh:
(i) Phn tch n ng cho thy tt c khch hng khng c tip tc giao hng
do cha thanh ton n qu hn.
(ii) Mt danh sch tt c cc n t hng quan trng c gi tr n hng ln.
3 X l theo l vn l mt hnh thc x l ph bin. Nguyn tc c bn l cc giao
dch lin quan c lu tr cng nhau v c x l trong cng mt l u vo
tng hiu qu ca chng trnh hay tin trnh cn thc hin. Mt h thng
c coi l h thng x l tc thi, khi d liu c nhp trc tip vo my tnh
t ni pht sinh d liu v kt qu x l c chuyn n tn ni ngi dng.
Quy trnh ny cng lin quan ti vic truyn ti d liu.
4 Sai.
5 H thng h tr ra quyt nh (DSS) l h thng tng tc, gip mi ngi ra
quyt nh bng cch s dng cc nh gi v thch hp vi iu kin c nhiu
yu t khng c xc nh r rng. H thng ny h tr ra quyt nh trong
cc tnh hung bn cu trc hoc phi cu trc v cung cp thng tin, m hnh
hoc cng c cho vic x l v/hoc phn tch thng tin. H thng cho php nh
qun tr tp trung vo cc vn kinh doanh thc t thng qua vic t ng ha
quy trnh thu thp, tng kt v phn tch thng tin lin quan n cc quyt nh
c th, cho php gii quyt cc vn t xut, ch xy ra mt ln. H thng
ny c s dng trong lnh vc sn xut thng tin h tr qu trnh ra quyt
nh chin thut.
6 H chuyn gia (ES) c s dng :
Chn on vn
Hoch nh chin lc
Hoch nh kim sot ni b
Duy tr chin lc
H thng ny c th a ra cc quyt nh phc tp v phi cu trc. H thng c

th a ra li khuyn hay li gii thch cho nh qun tr v tch hp vi cc h
thng khc nh h thng thng tin qun tr, h thng h tr ra quyt nh v H
thng thng tin iu hnh.
V d v h chuyn gia gm c:
318
T vn v cc h qu php l c th ny sinh trong cc m phn qun l

nhn cng (labour-management negotiation)
Cc tnh ton v thu
Vic la chn phng php o to
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 y l nhng v d v thng tin vn hnh.
2 Hi ng qun tr mun bit:
Tnh n nm nay, ca hng no kim c nhiu li nhun nht.
Sn phm no mang li nhiu li nhun nht trong nm qua.
H thng kho hng hot ng hiu qu nh th no.
Thi gian trung bnh hon thnh mt n hng tn ng.
Hot ng xc tin c hiu qu nht trong vic to ra doanh thu bn hng

trong ton khu vc trong nm qua.
Chi nhnh hiu qu nht min Nam nc Anh.
(Cc) vng gim kh nng sinh li trong su thng va qua.
(Cc) vng tng trng nhanh nht ti cng thi im.
3 (a) H chuyn gia a sc mnh chuyn mn n bn lm vic. V d, mt

ngi mun vay mt khon tin t ngn hng. H chuyn gia c th c s
dng nh gi ri ro tn dng, v th yu cu s khng phi chuyn trc
tip n mt cn b cp cao.
(b) H thng h tr iu hnh cho php nh qun tr cp cao c th d dng tp
trung vo cc hot ng, v th chc nng qun l trung gian ca x l thng
tin c th bin mt.
iu ny cho php gim s cp bc trong h thng phn cp qun tr, c thc
hin bng cch to vic lm mi trong qun tr thng tin.
319
GHI CH CUI CHNG
320
Chng
09
Qun l hng tn kho
Mc ch ca qun
l hng tn kho
(Objectives of
stock control)
Phng php qun l

hng tn kho n gin
(Simple methods of
stock control)
Qun l
hng tn kho
(Stock - inventory control)
M hnh hng
tn kho
(Inventory models)
Mng li chui
cung ng
(Supply chain networks)
H thng hoch nh
nhu cu nguyn vt liu
(Materials requirement
planning - MRP)
Gii thiu
T trc n nay, hng tn kho (inventory hoc stock) vn l mt trong nhng mi
lo ngi chnh ca mt doanh nghip. Chng ny s nghin cu cc phng php
qun l hng tn kho khc nhau. Trn thc t, qun l hng tn kho ngha l ti thiu
ha chi ph nhng khng phi l gim ht chi ph.
Mc tiu bi hc
Sau khi hc xong chng ny, bn c th:
Nm c cc chi ph khc nhau lin quan n hng tn kho.
Hiu c cc phng php qun l hng tn kho, bao gm phng php
sn xut tc thi (Just in time - JIT).
Tnh ton mc t hng li v lng t hng li.
Hiu c m hnh lng t hng kinh t EOQ c bn.
Hiu c m hnh lng sn xut theo l kinh t EBQ.
Hiu c nh hng ca cc khon chit khu i vi tng chi ph ca mt
n t hng.
S dng thng tin to t phn mm lp mt bng tnh tnh ton lng t
hng kinh t.
Hiu c tm quan trng ca qun l chui cung ng trong cc mng li
chui cung ng.
321
1 MC CH CA QUN L HNG TN KHO

Mc ch ca qun
l hng tn kho
(Objectives of
stock control)
Phng php qun l

hng tn kho n gin
(Simple methods of
stock control)
Qun l
hng tn kho
M hnh hng
tn kho
(Inventory models)
Mng li chui
cung ng
H thng hoch nh
nhu cu nguyn vt liu
planning - MRP)
1.1 Ti sao phi lu tr hng tn kho?

Chi ph mua hng tn kho lun l mt trong nhng chi ph ln nht m doanh nghip
phi chu. Bn cnh , hng tn kho phi c qun l v kim tra cn thn.
C th tm lc cc l do chnh cn lu tr hng tn kho nh sau:
m bo c hng ha p ng nhu cu k vng

cung cp hng d tr bnh n gia cc quy trnh
p ng c bt k t khan him hng no trong tng lai
tn dng cc khon chit khu khi mua vi s lng ln
i ph c vi cc bin ng theo ma, cng nh bt k s bin i
no v lng s dng v cu
to iu kin cho cc quy trnh sn xut din ra mt cch sun s v
hiu qu
L mt b phn cn thit ca quy trnh sn xut (v d thi gian men trong
quy trnh sn xut pho mt)
L mt chnh sch u t thn trng, c bit trong thi k lm pht hoc
khan him c th xy ra.
1.2 Chi ph lu kho

Nu hng tn kho qu nhiu th chi ph lu kho (holding cost) s pht sinh khng
cn thit. Cc chi ph pht sinh do nhiu nguyn nhn.
(a) Chi ph lu tr v qun l kho (Costs of storage and stores operations).
Hng tn kho cng nhiu th cng cn nhiu khng gian cha hn; v c th
phi b sung nhn vin, thit b kim sot, qun l hng tn kho.
(b) Chi ph tin li (Interest charges). Lu tr hng tn kho bao gm vic u
t vn (tin mt) hoc lin quan ti vic chim dng vn phi tr tin li.
322
Chng 9: Qun l hng tn kho

(c) Chi ph bo him (Insurance costs). Gi tr hng tn kho c lu tr cng
ln th chi ph bo him c th cng cao.
(d) Ri ro v li thi (Risk of obsolescence). Hng tn kho c lu tr cng
lu, ri ro hng tn kho b li thi cng ln.
(e) H hng (Deterioration). Khi cc nguyn liu trong kho b h hng n mc
khng th s dng c na th phi thanh l khin pht sinh ph thanh l.
1.3 Chi ph mua hng tn kho

Mt khc, nu hng tn kho c lu tr t th s phi t hng thng xuyn hn.
iu ny s lm tng cc chi ph t hng (ordering costs) hoc chi ph mua sm
(procurement costs) sau:
(a) Chi ph vn phng v hnh chnh (clerical and administrative costs) lin
quan n cng tc mua sm, k ton v nhn hng ha.
(b) Chi ph vn chuyn (transport costs).
(c) Chi ph vn hnh sn xut (production run costs), i vi hng tn kho t
sn xut ch khng phi mua t bn ngoi.
1.4 Chi ph do khng c hng bn

Loi chi ph khc c th pht sinh nu lu tr t hng tn kho l chi ph do ht hng.
C nhiu nguyn nhn dn n chi ph do khng c hng bn (stockout cost).
Li nhun gim do gim doanh thu.

Mt doanh thu tng lai do khch hng khng hi lng.
Mt i s tn nhim i vi khch hng.
Chi ph pht sinh do nh tr sn xut.
Nhn cng bt bnh do nh tr sn xut.
Chi ph ph tri ca cc n t hng b sung khn cp, s lng nh.
CH DN
V vy, mc ch chung ca qun l hng tn kho l nhm duy tr cc mc hng tn kho ti thiu ha
chi ph lu tr, chi ph t hng v chi ph khng c hng bn.
1.5 Cc mc qun l hng tn kho

Cn c vo vic phn tch thi gian s dng v giao hng tn kho trc y, chng ta
c th tnh ton v s dng mt lot cc mc qun l duy tr hng tn kho mc
ti u ca chng (ni cch khc, mc ti thiu ha chi ph). Cc mc ny s quyt
nh khi no cn t hng v t vi s lng bao nhiu.
(a) Mc t hng li (reorder level). Khi hng tn kho t mc ny, cn a ra
mt n t hng b sung hng tn kho. Mc t hng li c xc nh
bng cch xem xt cc yu t sau:
T l tiu th ti a
Thi gian thc hin n hng ti a
Thi gian thc hin n hng ti a l thi gian gia thi im t mt n
hng vi mt nh cung cp v thi im hng ha sn sng s dng.
Mc t hng li = lng s dng ti a x thi gian thc hin n hng ti a
323

(b) Mc tn kho ti thiu (minimum level). y l mt mc cnh bo buc
ngi qun l phi ch n thc t l hng tn kho chun b t n mt
mc thp nguy him v c th xy ra ri ro khng c hng bn.
Mc tn kho ti thiu = mc t hng li (lng s dng bnh qun x thi
gian thc hin n hng bnh qun)
(c) Mc tn kho ti a (maximum level). y cng l mt mc cnh bo
bo hiu cho ngi qun l bit rng hng tn kho chun b t n mt mc
lng ph tim nng.
Mc tn kho ti a = mc t hng li + lng t hng li (lng s
dng ti thiu x thi gian thc hin n hng ti thiu)
(d) Lng t hng li (reorder quantity). y l lng hng s c t khi
hng tn kho t mc t hng li. Nu mc ny c a ra ti thiu
ha tng chi ph lin quan n vic lu tr v t hng tn kho, th n c
gi l lng t hng kinh t (economic order quantity).
(e) Hng tn kho bnh qun (average stock). Cng thc tnh mc hng tn
kho bnh qun gi nh rng mc hng tn kho dao ng u (fluctuate evenly) gia mc hng tn kho ti thiu (hoc an ton) v mc hng tn kho c
th cao nht (lng hng tn kho ngay sau khi nhn c mt n t hng,
c th, hng tn kho an ton + lng t hng li).
Hng tn kho bnh qun = mc hng tn kho an ton + lng t
hng li
Chng ta s nghin cu li cc mc hng tn kho ny phn tip theo ca chng
khi tm hiu cc phng php qun l hng tn kho.
NH NGHA
Thi gian thc hin n hng (lead time) l thi gian gia thi im t n hng tn kho
v thi im nhn hng. V vy, thi gian thc hin n hng hai thng c ngha l s mt hai
thng t thi im t n hng cho n thi im hng c giao.
Ri ro khng c hng bn (stockout) pht sinh khi c mt yu cu i vi mt loi hng
ha, nhng ca hng hoc kho ang tm ht.
Hng d tr bnh n (buffer stock) l hng tn kho an ton c lu tr phng trng hp
pht sinh nhu cu cao ngoi d kin. Ch s dng ti hng d tr bnh n trong thi gian ch
cung ng hng mi. Nu cu vt cung hoc vic giao hng b chm tr th c th s dng
hng d tr bnh n.
Lng t hng (order quantity) l s n v hng ha trong mt n t hng. N thng
c c tnh vi mt s lng c nh.
Mc t hng li (reorder level) l s n v hng cn li trong kho, ti cn t mt n
t hng mi.
324
BI TP THC HNH 1
(10 PHT)
Mt doanh nghip sn xut lu tr trung bnh 40.000 mt hng tn kho. y thng

l lng cung trong mt thng. Cc mt hng tn kho c mua vi gi trung bnh l
2,50 GBP/n v. Cc thng tin lin quan khc t s sch k ton ti chnh ca nm
trc nh sau:
GBP
Ph thu kho
8.000
Ph giao hng (hng ang i ng)
24.000
Tin lng b phn mua sm
45.400
Tin lng b phn kho
75.600
Chi ph chung b phn mua sm
31.400
Chi ph chung b phn kho
34.800
Bo him hng ha trong kho
4.800
(a) Chi ph mua sm v lu tr mt mt hng tn kho bnh qun bng bao nhiu?
(b) S c bt c thng tin no khc lin quan khng?
2 PHNG PHP QUN L HNG TN KHO

N GIN
Mc ch ca qun
l hng tn kho
(Objectives of
stock control)
Phng php qun l

hng tn kho n gin
(Simple methods of
stock control)
Qun l
hng tn kho
M hnh hng
tn kho
(Inventory models)
Mng li chui
cung ng
H thng hoch nh
nhu cu nguyn vt liu
planning - MRP)
2.1 Gii thiu

Mt doanh nghip cn m bo mc hng tn kho cao trnh tnh trng nh tr
sn xut. ng thi, doanh nghip khng mong mun mc hng tn kho c gi
mc cao hn cn thit, v nh qun l mun duy tr chi ph lu tr hng tn kho
mc ti thiu. Ngoi ra, cn c cc chi ph qun l v bc d lin quan n vic t
325

hng v nhn hng t nh cung cp. Mt h thng qun l hng tn kho c th c
thit lp ti thiu ha tng chi ph lu tr v t hng tn kho, trong khi vn duy tr
mc hng tn kho cao trnh s khng hi lng ca khch hng.
Cc phng php kim sot hng tn kho n gin bao gm:
Xc nh thi gian t hng li theo nhu cu

Phng php k khai thng xuyn
Phng php kim k nh k
2.2 Xc nh thi gian t hng li theo nhu cu

Cng tc qun l mc hng tn kho thng c thc hin bng cch thu thp thng
tin chi tit v s hng s dng trong mt giai on trung bnh (average period), mt
giai on bn rn khc thng (exceptionally busy period) v mt giai on
m bt thng (exceptionally slack period) i vi mi mt hng lu kho. Chng
ta s gi cc mc lng hng s dng ny ln lt l mc bnh qun (average
level), mc ti a (maximum level) v mc ti thiu (minimum level). Thi gian
vn chuyn ca nh cung cp hoc thi gian thc hin n hng s c phn
tch theo cch tng t v s xc nh thi gian vn chuyn ti a, trung bnh v
ti thiu.
Vi thng tin ny, chng ta c th tnh c mc hng tn kho (hoc mc t hng
li) dn n vic mua hng mi. Nu c th trnh c ri ro khng c hng bn
th c th tnh c mc t hng li thn trng nh sau:
Mc t hng li = thi gian giao hng ti a x lng s dng ti a
Khng nht thit lc no cng phi lu gi s ghi chp cc mc hng tn kho chi
tit. Ch cn tin hnh cc t kim tra thng xuyn m bo rng hng tn kho
khng gim n mc t hng li (re-order level). y l mt phng php thch hp
i vi hng tn kho c gi tr tng i thp, trong khng cn cc thng tin c
cp nht tng pht (up-to-the-minute information) v hng tn kho.
Mt vn khc l vic xc nh lng t hng li, tc l lng hng tn kho phi
c t khi hng tn kho gim n mc t hng li. Nh chng ta thy, c th
s dng cc m hnh ton hc tnh ton lng t hng li ti u (lng t hng
ti thiu ha tng chi ph lu tr v t hng tn kho). i vi cc mt hng c gi tr
thp th vic p dng cc m hnh qu phc tp l khng cn thit. Khi , nh qun
l c th chn mc t hng li m theo kinh nghim ca h s gim nh nhng bt
tin trong qun l lin quan ti vic t hng li thng xuyn nhng vn m bo
mc hng tn kho khng qu cao.
e.g.
V D
MC T HNG LI V LNG T HNG LI
Linh kin 697 l mt trong hng nghn mt hng c lu tr trong kho ca nh sn

xut. Ngi ta d on s lng linh kin ny c s dng khong 30.000 chic/
nm. Nh qun l cho rng lng s dng hng tun ti a l khong 750 v lng
s dng hng tun ti thiu l khong 400. Kinh nghim cho thy cc nh cung cp s
giao hng trong khong thi gian trung bnh l ba tun sau khi nhn c mt n t
hng, nhng c th l bn tun hoc hai tun.
Hy xut mt mc t hng li v lng t hng li cho linh kin 697.
326

BI GII
(a) Lng s dng trung bnh hng tun xp x 600 chic/tun. Lng s dng
trung bnh gia thi gian nhn c mt n t hng v thi gian giao
hng l 600 x 3 = 1.800. Lng s dng ti a trong thi gian thc hin n
hng ca nh cung cp l 750 x 4 = 3.000. Nh qun l s c th nh ra mt
mc t hng li gn vi mc s dng ti a hn mc s dng trung bnh.
Mt hng ha vi lng t hng l 3.000 c th c coi l mt mc t
hng li c th chp nhn.
(b) Gi s linh kin 697 khng phi l mt mt hng c gi tr c bit th nh
qun l s p dng mt phng php n gin c nh lng t hng
li. C th 6 n t hng mt nm s c coi l mt con s thch hp, tc
l mi n t hng s t mua hng cho 2 thng. Suy ra lng t hng
li s l 30.000/6 = 5.000.
2.3 Phng php k khai thng xuyn

NH NGHA
Phng php k khai thng xuyn (perpetual inventory) yu cu phi bit c mc hng tn
kho ca tt c mt hng mi thi im. Mt h s lu gi tt c cc chng t gm bin lai, ha n
xut hng v bng cn i hng tn kho. Do trn thc t hng tn kho c lu tr khng nht qun
vi hng tn kho trn s sch (do li ghi chp, nh my, li ca th kho, mt mt) nn phi kim
tra hng tn kho bng phng php kim k lin tc (continuous stocktaking). Trong qu trnh
ny, lng tn kho ca cc mt hng c m v kim tra hng ngy hoc ti tng khong tn s
(at frequent interval) v c i chiu vi th kho (bin card). Mi mt hng c kim tra t nht
mt ln mt nm; bt k sai lch no s c pht hin v chnh sa ngay.
Cc h thng k khai thng xuyn thng lin quan n vic lu hai tp h s.
(a) Th kho (bin card) ghi s lng thc t cc n v hng tn kho ti bt k
thi im no.
(b) S chi tit hng tn kho (store ledger record) ghi c s lng thc t cc
n v hng tn kho ti bt k thi im no v gi tr ca chng.
S lng thc t trong th kho v s chi tit hng tn kho phi lun thng nht vi
nhau, tr khi c li do ghi chp hay nh my.
H thng k khai thng xuyn s dng h thng mc t hng li to ra mt n
t hng mi. H thng mc t hng li v h thng cung cu li thng c tch
hp vi nhau.
2.4 Phng php kim k nh k

Phng php kim k nh k (periodic stocktaking) l qu trnh m v tnh gi tr
ca tt c hng tn kho ti mt thi im quy nh, thng l cui mt k k ton.
327

Phng php kim k nh k c nhiu nhc im so vi phng php k khai
thng xuyn.
u im ca phng php k khai thng xuyn so vi phng php kim k nh
k bao gm:
(a) Khng cn kim k hng nm v c th trnh c s gin on do vic
kim k hng nm gy ra.
(b) C th tuyn dng cc nhn vin kim k c trnh , gim nhng li c th
xy ra.
(c) Khng b thc p v thi gian nh kim k thng xuyn, gip gim li v c
th tin hnh iu tra pht hin sai st.
(d) Pht hin nhng thiu st v tn tht (deficiency and loss) sm hn, nu
cng tc kim k b hn ch n kim tra hng nm.
(e) Loi b vic ngng sn xut v i ng nhn vin ph trch kho khng bao
gi bn n ni khng th gii quyt cc vn nguyn liu cho b phn
sn xut.
(f) Tinh thn ca i ng nhn vin c nng cao v cc tiu chun cng c
t ra mc cao hn.
(g) Cng tc kim sot cc mc hng tn kho c ci thin v c t kh nng
lu tr qu nhiu hoc ht hng tn kho.
BI TP THC HNH 2
(5 PHT)
Mt doanh nghip cn c cung cp thng xuyn mt nguyn liu c nhp

khu t Nam M. Thi gian thc hin n hng thng l 9 tun nhng c th t 5
n 13 tun. Doanh nghip ny s dng ti thiu khong 2.000 kg/tun v khng bao
gi vt qu 4.000 kg/tun. Doanh nghip khng mun tng hay gim mc sn xut
trong tng lai gn. Khng c ch cha 60.000 kg nguyn liu cng mt lc.
Bn s xut mc t hng li v lng t hng li bng bao nhiu?
2.5 Phn tch theo quy lut Pareto (80/20)

Mt phng php qun l hng tn kho khc l phn tch theo quy lut Pareto (80/20)
- Pareto analysis da trn thc t l trong nhiu kho hng, 80% gi tr hng tn kho
n t 20% mt hng tn kho. Trong mua sm, 80% gi tr chi ph mua sm c
mua t 20% nh cung cp. Hng tn kho ca cc hng ha t hn ny phi c
qun l cht hn.
328
e.g.
V D
PHN TCH THEO QUY LUT PARETO
Mt cng ty lu tr 10 loi hng ha trong kho. Gi tr ca mt hng tn kho nh sau.

Cc mt hng tn kho
GBP
231
593
150
32
74
17
1.440
12
19
2.570
Sp xp li gi tr theo th t gim dn, tnh gi tr tch ly v phn trm chng ta c

bng phn tch sau:
Cc mt hng tn kho
Gi tr tch ly (W1)
Gi tr tch ly (W2)
GBP
GBP
1.440
1.440
56,0
593
2.033
79,1
231
2.264
88,1
150
2.414
93,9
74
2.488
96,8
32
2.520
98,1
19
2.539
98,8
17
2.556
99,5
12
2.568
99,9
2.570
100,0
2.570
Cc php tnh
(1) Kt qu ny c tnh nh sau:
1.440 + 593 = 2.033
2.033 + 231 = 2.264 v tng t
(2) (
(
1
2.570
1
2.570
x 1.440 x 100)% = 56,0%

x 2.033 x 100)% = 79,1%, v tng t
329

(Nhp 1/2.570 vo my tnh b ti (calculator) ging nh mt hng s - thc
hin php tnh, sau n nt nhn hai ln n khi k xut hin trn mn hnh
- sau nhp tng s thu nhp tch ly v n nt bng nhn gi tr phn
trm l mt s thp phn.)
v d trn, quy lut Pareto p dng nh sau - gn 80% gi tr hng tn kho thuc
v hai mt hng, G v B. Phn tch theo quy lut Pareto nhn mnh rng phn ln n
lc nhm kim sot hng tn kho ca mt cng ty l khng hp l, nu xt theo gi
tr ca cc mt hng tn kho.
Trong nhiu trng hp, chng ta vn dng quy lut 80/20 mt cch bn nng, theo
s mch bo ca trc gic. im mu cht l khi c th tch cc yu t quan trng
t nhiu yu t km quan trng hn, th bn c th bt u tp trung n lc ca mnh
thu c kt qu ln nht.
2.6 Phn tch ABC (ABC analysis)

Trong phn tch ABC, vic s dng quy lut Pareto 80/20 c chnh sa mt cht
p dng vi ba loi hng tn kho v hng mua: A, B v C.
T l phn trm c th khc nhau gia cc t chc nhng nguyn tc chung vn c
vai tr ch o trong kim sot hng tn kho v hiu qu mua sm, v ta c th tp
trung n lc vo cc khu vc hon tr ln nht - chi tin dnh nhiu thi gian qun
l v n lc hn vo cc hng ha c gi tr cao (A v B) ng thi m bo c
hng tn kho ca loi hng ha c gi tr thp (C).
2.7 Phng php sn xut tc thi - JIT

y l phng php hoch nh v kim sot cc hot ng, da trn tng hng ha
v dch v s ch c sn xut khi c nhu cu - khng qu sm ( hng tn kho tng
ln) hoc khng qu mun ( khch hng phi ch). H thng sn xut tc thi (Just
in time - JIT) cn c gi l sn sut khng c hng tn kho (stockless production).
dng thc hon ho, mt h thng sn xut tc thi c gng khng lu tr hng
tn kho. S vi phm nguyn tc chung ca sn xut tc thi bt k khu no ca
h thng s tr thnh vn trong vic gii quyt ton b qu trnh. Nhng ngi ng
h sn xut tc thi cho rng theo phng php ny, kh nng gii quyt vn s
c ci thin, v mi ngi u c ngha v gii quyt vn .
H thng sn xut tc thi i hi cc hot ng sn xut p ng cc yu cu sau:
(a) Cht lng cao (high quality). Hng hc trong sn xut do nhng li cht
lng s lm gim nng sut v tin cy ca ngun cung ni b.
(b) Tc (speed). Qu trnh sn xut phi nhanh p ng n t hng ca
khch hng bng hng sn xut c ch khng phi hng tn kho.
(c) Tin cy (reliability). Sn xut phi tin cy v khng b ngng tr.
(d) Linh ng (flexibility). p ng ngay lp tc cc n t hng ca
khch hng, sn xut phi linh ng v c chia thnh cc l nh.
(e) Chi ph thp hn (lower costs). Nu qu trnh sn xut c cht lng cao
vi tc nhanh hn v loi b c sai st th chi ph s gim.
330

H qu ca sn xut tc thi l qu trnh sn xut nhm p ng yu cu tc thi v
sn phm u ra nn s khng to ra hng ha lu kho.
2.8 K thut qun l tc thi (JIT techniques)

JIT l mt tp hp cc k thut qun tr. Mt s k thut ny lin quan n cc vn
c bn trong thc t sn xut.
(a) Tiu chun cng vic (work standards). Tiu chun cng vic phi c
xy dng v tun th bi tt c mi ngi ti mi thi im.
(b) S linh ng trong trch nhim (flexibility in responsibilities). T chc
phi to iu kin cho c nhn nng cao trch nhim ty theo nng lc ca
h, bt k v tr trong t chc. C cu xp bc v cc nguyn tc lm vic km
hiu qu phi c loi b.
(c) Quyn bnh ng ca mi ngi cng lm vic trong t chc (equality
of all people working in the organisation). Quyn bnh ng phi tn ti
v c th thy r. V d, phi c mt cng tin chung cho mi ngi m khng
c mt khu vc n cm c bit ca nh lnh o; tt c cn b gm c cc
gim c phi mc ng phc ging nhau. Hng sn xut xe hi Honda l
mt v d v quyn bnh ng ca mi ngi cng lm vic trong mt t chc.
(d) Quyn t ch (autonomy). Quyn t ch phi c trao cho c nhn chu
trch nhim trc tip trong cc hot ng ca qu trnh sn xut. Nh qun l
nn h tr mi ngi trong cng xng ch khng ch huy h.
(e) Pht trin nhn s (development of personnel). Tng c nhn ngi lao
ng phi c pht trin v o to.
(f) Cht lng cuc sng cng vic (quality of working life). Cht lng
cuc sng cng vic phi c nng cao thng qua cc tin ch tt hn ti
khu vc lm vic, s an ton cng vic v s tham gia ca mi ngi vo
qu trnh ra quyt nh lin quan n cng vic.
(g) Sng to (creativity). Nn khuyn khch nhn vin sng to tm ra cc
phng php lm vic hiu qu.
(h) S dng nhiu my mc nh, n gin (use several small, simple machines) ch khng phi l mt my ln v phc tp. My mc nh c th
di chuyn d dng hn, v vy, chng c tnh linh ng ln hn ti sn cng
xng. Theo , s gim ri ro a ra mt quyt nh u t thiu sng sut
v tn km, v my mc nh tng i n gin thng tn chi ph hn rt
nhiu so vi cc my mc ln phc tp.
(i) B tr cng vic v lung cng vic (work floor layout and work flow).
Cng vic c th c b tr nng cao s nhp nhng ca cc hot ng.
Lung cng vic l mt yu t quan trng trong phng php sn xut tc
thi, v cng vic cn din ra sun s khng gin on trnh tch ly hng
tn kho v thi gian tm ngng khng cn thit.
(j) Bo tr hiu qu ton din (total productive maintenance - TPM). H
thng bo tr hiu qu ton din TPM tm kim loi b nhng s c v
hng hc ngoi d kin trong qu trnh sn xut v lung cng vic. Nhn
vin vn hnh dy chuyn sn xut phi c trch nhim iu tra nng cao
hiu qu trong bo tr.
(k) Mua sm theo phng php qun l tc thi (JIT purchasing). Bng vic
mua sm theo phng php sn xut tc thi, t chc s thit lp c quan
h gn gi vi cc nh cung cp c uy tn v xy dng mt tha thun vi
nh cung cp c th mua nguyn liu khi cn cho sn xut. Nh cung cp
331

phi c mt h thng sn xut linh ng nhm phn ng tc th vi cc n
t hng ca t chc.
3 M HNH HNG TN KHO

Mc ch ca qun
l hng tn kho
(Objectives of
stock control)
Phng php qun l

hng tn kho n gin
(Simple methods of
stock control)
Qun l
hng tn kho
M hnh hng
tn kho
(Inventory models)
Mng li chui
cung ng
H thng hoch nh
nhu cu nguyn vt liu
planning - MRP)
3.1 Mc ch ca m hnh hng tn kho

Mc ch ca m hnh hng tn kho l gip nh qun l quyt nh phng php
hoch nh (plan) v kim sot (control) hiu qu hng tn kho gim thiu chi
ph. V vy, cc m hnh hng tn kho c th d bo:
(a) Quy m ti u ca n t hng i vi mt hng ha c th.
(b) C nn chp nhn xut chit khu mua bun i vi cc n t hng ln.
(c) Mc t hng li ti u cho mt loi hng ha.
(d) Tn sut a ra n t hng.
3.2 Cng thc tnh lng t hng kinh t c bn EOQ

NH NGHA
Lng t hng kinh t (Economic Order Quantity - EOQ) hay lng sn xut theo l kinh t (EBQ)
l lng t hng ca mt hng ha s ti thiu ha chi ph.
332

Cc gi thit c s dng trong m hnh l:
(a) Cu l i lng chc chn, khng i v lin tc theo thi gian.
(b) Thi gian thc hin n hng cung ng l khng i v chc chn hoc c
s ti cung ng tc thi.
(c) Cc n t hng ca khch hng vn c p ng, trong thi gian hng
b sung vn ang trn ng v.
(d) Khng c ri ro khng c hng bn.
(e) Tt c gi l khng i v khng c chit khu mua bun.
(f) Chi ph lu tr hng tn kho t l vi s lng hng tn kho c lu tr.
tnh ton, chng ta s dng mt s k hiu sau:
t D =
Co =
Ch =

Q =
lng s dng tnh theo n v trong mt khong thi gian (cu)

chi ph lp n t hng (ch cc chi ph lin quan)
chi ph lu tr trn mt n v hng tn kho trong mt khong thi
gian (ch cc chi ph lin quan)
lng t hng li
Hng tn kho bnh qun

Nu thi gian thc hin n hng l 0 hoc bit chc chn, th cc hng ha mi c
th c mua khi hng tn kho gim n 0. Khi hng mi n th hng tn kho s
ngng ti a l Q. Khi cu khng i th hng tn kho bnh qun s l Q/2. iu
ny c chng minh trong s bn di. V Ch l chi ph lu tr trn mt n v
hng ha, nn chi ph lu tr hng tn kho bnh qun trong mt khong thi gian s
l (Q/2)Ch.
Mc tn kho trung bnh
Mc tn kho thc t
Mc tn kho
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Thi gian
Hnh 9.1: Hng tn kho bnh qun

S lng n t hng tn kho c lp trong mt khong thi gian ph thuc vo
lng s dng hng nm (D) v lng t hng li (Q). S lng n t hng c
lp trong mt khong thi gian s l D/Q. Nu chi ph lp mt n t hng l Co th
tng chi ph t hng trong khong thi gian s l CoD/Q.
333

V khng c bt k chi ph khng c hng bn, hng d tr bnh n, chit khu mua
bun no, nn s ch c thnh phn chi ph bin i theo quy m ca n t hng.
Cng thc cho lng t hng kinh t (EOQ) c suy ra t kin thc i s s
cp. Bn s c cng thc tnh l:
2CoD
EOQ =
e.g.
Ch
V D
CNG THC EOQ
Nhu cu s dng mt loi hng ha l 40.000 n v trong mt nm, t l n nh.

Chi ph t mt n hng l 20 GBP v chi ph lu tr mt n v hng ha trong mt
nm l 40p. Tm quy m t hng ti thiu ha chi ph hng tn kho, s lng n
hng c t mi nm v chiu di ca chu k hng tn kho
BI GII
Q=
2 x 20 x 40.000
0,4
= 2.000 n v
Ngha l s c
40.000
2.000
= 20 n t hng mi nm.
Theo , chu k hng tn kho l:

52 tun
20 n t hng
= 2,6 tun.
BI TP THC HNH 3
(5 PHT)
Chi ph t mt n hng cho mt loi hng ha l 170 GBP. Gi hng tn kho l 30

GBP/n v v chi ph lu kho hng nm l 15% gi mua. Lng cu hng nm l
600.000 n v. Lng t hng kinh t l bao nhiu?
334

Phng php th (graphical approach)
Bin thin chi ph theo quy m t hng c th c minh ha bng th sau:
GBP
Chi ph
Tng chi ph
Chi ph lu tr
Chi ph t hng
EOQ
Lng t hng li
Hnh 9.2: EOQ: Bin thin chi ph v quy m t hng

mc EOQ theo quy m t hng, chi ph t hng (tnh cho mt khong thi gian)
s tng ng vi chi ph lu tr hng tn kho:
QCh CoD
=
2
Q
Trong v d trc, nu EOQ l 2.000 n v th chi ph s nh sau:

GBP
Chi ph t hng hng nm 20 GBP x 20
400
Chi ph lu tr hng tn kho hng nm 2.000/2 x 0,40 GBP
400
Tng chi ph c hng tn kho hng nm
800
Hng d tr bnh n
Gi s mt cng ty s s dng m hnh EOQ, nhng nh qun l lo lng rng cc suy
lun ton hc c th dn n hng tn kho gim n 0 ti thiu ha chi ph. Trn
thc t, nu cu bin ng th hng tn kho khng gim u nh trong m hnh
xt trn. Trong trng hp ny, nh qun l c th mun c mt hng d tr bnh
n (hoc hng tn kho an ton) cc mc hng tn kho khng bao gi c php
gim di mt mc c nh. Gi s mc an ton ny l S. Nu gi nguyn tt c cc
gi thit khc ca m hnh th ng biu din hng tn kho s ging nh trn th
di y vi gi nh mc t hng li l 2 n v.
335

14
Mc tn kho
Mc tn kho trung bnh

Mc tn kho thc t
Mc t hng li
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Thi gian
Hnh 9.3: Hng d tr bnh n

V th, Q (10 n v trong v d trn) s c t hng nhng hng tn kho s khng
gim n 0 trc khi doanh nghip cht y kho. Nu hng tn kho gim xung S th
cc hng mi s n ca kho. V vy, cu hi c t ra l vic ny c bt k nh
hng no i vi gi tr ca lng t hng kinh t? Cu tr li l khng.
Vic s dng hng d tr bnh n s lm thay i nhiu c im ca m hnh. Chi
ph lu tr mt n v hng tn kho khng thay i. Tng t, chi ph t hng li
hng tn kho khng thay i. nh hng duy nht l lm tng mc hng tn kho bnh
qun i vi bt k lng t hng li no. Trong v d n gin nu trn, khi hng
tn kho an ton l 0 th mt lng t hng li Q m ch rng hng tn kho bt u
mc Q, sau gim n 0 ti thi im c mt n t hng mi. V vy, mc hng
tn kho bnh qun s l Q/2. Tuy nhin, trong v d mi c minh ha trong s
trn th hng tn kho bt u mc Q + S (10 + 2) v gim n S (2 n v hng d
tr bnh n). Ti thi im ny, Q tng v c b sung vo mc hng tn kho an
ton hin c S. iu ny lm mc hng tn kho quay tr li Q + S.
Kt qu l c hai n v ca mt hng tn kho vnh cu (permanent stock) trong v
d ny v mt hng tn kho xoay vng (revolving stock) bt u 10 v gim n 0.
Hin nhin, mc bnh qun ca hng tn kho vnh cu l S v mc bnh qun ca
hng tn kho xoay vng s tng t nh trong m hnh n gin: Q/2. By gi, s
chnh lch duy nht l chi ph lu tr tng bi v so vi m hnh n gin, ti bt k
thi im no cng c nhiu hng ha c lu tr hn. iu ny khng nh hng
n EOQ khi p dng cho tt c cc tn sut t hng.
3.3 Phn tch lng t hng kinh t bng bng tnh

Gi s mt cng ty mua hng ha bn li. Nhu cu hng ha hng nm l 3.600
n v v lng t hng ti thiu l 175 n v v hng ha c bn trong cc hp,
mi hp c 25 n v. Chi ph lu tr (cht kho) trn mt n v l 0,40 GBP v chi
ph t mt n hng l 3,50 GBP.
336

Chng ta c th s dng Excel v lp bng biu chi ph lin quan hng nm cho cc
lng t hng khc nhau nh sau.
Lng
t
hng
Chi
n
ph
t
t
hng hng
Hng
tn
kho
bnh
qun
Chi
ph
lu
tr
Tng
S lng u tin
175
175
20,6
72,0
S lng b sung
25
200
18,0
63,0 100,0 40,0 103,0
3.600
225
16,0
56,0 112,5 45,0 101,0
Chi ph t hng
3,5
250
14,4
50,4 125,0 50,0 100,4 <<<
Chi ph lu tr
0,4
275
13,1
45,8 137,5 55,0 100,8
300
12,0
42,0 150,0 60,0 102,0
325
11,1
38,8 162,5 65,0 103,8
350
10,3
36,0 175,0 70,0 106,0
375
9,6
33,6 187,5 75,0 108,6
400
9,0
31,5 200,0 80,0
111,5
425
8,5
29,6 212,5 85,0
114,6
450
8,0
28,0 225,0 90,0
118,0
475
7,6
26,5 237,5 95,0 121,5
Doanh s
87,5 35,0 107,0
Ghi ch
(a) Hng tn kho bnh qun
Lng t hng 2 (gi s khng c hng

d tr bnh n)
(b) S n t hng
Cu hng nm (3.600) lng t hng
(c) Chi ph lu tr
Hng tn kho bnh qun x 0,40 GBP
(d) Chi ph t hng hng nm
S n t hng x 3,5 GBP
Bn s thy rng lng t hng kinh t l 250 n v. Ti im ny, tng chi ph

tng ng hng nm l ti thiu.
Khi lp bng tnh, ta tch ring d liu ban u vi khu vc tnh ton v tham chiu
d liu ny trong cc cng thc. iu ny cho php cp nht d dng bt k s thay
i no, v d chi ph t hng hoc lu tr.
th (bn di) cho thy khi mc hng tn kho bnh qun v lng t hng tng th
chi ph lu tr tng. Mt khc, chi ph t hng gim khi mc hng tn kho v lng
t hng tng. ng tng chi ph th hin tng chi ph lu tr v t hng.
337

GBP
250,0
Tng chi ph
Chi ph
200,0
Chi ph lu tr
150,0
100,0
50,0
0
Chi ph t hng
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Lng t hng
Hnh 9.4: EOQ v chi ph lu tr

Lu rng ng tng chi ph mc ti thiu i vi mt lng t hng l 250 n
v v xy ra im ti ni ng cong chi ph t hng v ng cong chi ph lu
tr ct nhau. V vy, EOQ c xc nh ti im chi ph lu tr v chi ph t
hng bng nhau.
3.4 M hnh lng sn xut theo l kinh t (EBQ)

Bn c th gp kh khn khi cng thc tnh lng t hng kinh t (EOQ) c bn yu
cu phi sa i v vic ti cung cp c thc hin t t (gradual), thay v ngay lp
tc. Thng thng, mt cng ty sn xut c th lu tr hng tn kho ca mt thnh
phm (finished item) c sn xut theo l. Khi l mi c t hng v qu trnh
sn xut bt u, sn phm hon thnh c th c s dng trc khi sn xut
s lng theo n t hng.
V d: Gi s nhu cu hng ngy ca mt loi hng ha l 10 n v v th kho
(storekeeper) t hng 100 n v mt l. Mc sn xut l 50 n v trong mt ngy.
Vo ngy th nht ca quy trnh sn xut, gi s khng c hng tn kho, vic ti cung
ng s bt u. 50 n v s c sn xut trong ngy v 10 n v s c tiu th.
Hng tn kho cui ngy th nht s l 50 10 = 40 n v.
Vo ngy th hai, 50 n v cui cng s c sn xut v c 10 n v na s c
tiu th. Hng tn kho cui ngy th hai s l (40 + 50 10) = 80 n v.
Trong 8 ngy tip theo, hng tn kho s gim v 0.
Hng tn kho ti thiu (minimum stock) trong v d ny l 0, v hng tn kho ti a
(maximum stock) l 80 n v. Hng tn kho ti a l s lng c t hng (Q = 100)
n v tr cu trong thi gian quy trnh sn xut l din ra l Q x D/R, trong
D
R
Q
338
l mc cu
l mc sn xut
l s lng c t hng

Trong v d ca chng ta, hng tn kho ti a l:
10
(100
x 100) = 100 20 = 80 n v.
50
V th, mc hng tn kho ti a vi iu kin ti cung cp dn dn l:
QD
Q
= Q(1 D/R).
R
V tr c th c minh ha bng biu nh sau:
S lng
Q
Q(1 D/R) = Lng t hng ti a
Thi gian sn
xut (2 ngy)
Thi gian khng

sn xut (8 ngy)
S lng dng trong

qu trnh sn xut
Thi gian
Hnh 9.5: M hnh lng sn xut theo l kinh t (EBQ)

Cn c mt cng thc EOQ sa i v hng tn kho bnh qun khng phi l Q/2 m
l Q(1 D/R)/2.
Cng thc sa i c gi l lng sn xut theo l kinh t (Economic Batch
Quantity) hay cng thc EBQ v c dng:
Q=
2CoD
Ch(1 D/R)
trong
Q

D

Co

Ch

R
=
=
=
=
=
s lng hng c sn xut trong mi l

lng s dng trong mt khong thi gian
chi ph vn hnh/l
chi ph lu tr trn mt n v hng tn kho trong mt
khong thi gian
mc sn xut trong mt khong thi gian (xem bn di)
Khi thc hin cc php tnh EBQ (hoc php tnh EOQ), phi chc chn rng s liu
bn s dng l tng thch. V d, khng c nhm ln gia mt s liu s dng
trong mt thng (month) vi sn lng trong mt ngy (day).
Trn thc t, mc sn xut c th l mc cung (cho mt khong thi gian): v d,
nu Cng ty TNHH X ch c th mua 100 n v nguyn liu th trong mt ngy v
mi ng thng gi cn mt n v nguyn liu th h ch c th ch to 100 ng thng
gi trong mt ngy .
S dng v d m chng ta dng cho EOQ trn bng tnh v thm sn lng
l 18.000, c th ch ra nhng nh hng i vi hng tn kho bnh qun v n
t hng.
339
Chi ph
EBQ l 275 n v. Ti im ny, tng chi ph hng nm tng ng l nh nht. Ch

rng hng tn kho bnh qun khng phi l Q/2 m l Q(1 D/R)/2 nh nu trong
thanh cng thc.
200,0
180,0
160,0
140,0
120,0
100,0
80,0
60,0
40,0
20,0
0
Tng chi ph
Chi ph lu tr
Chi ph t hng
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Lng t hng
Hnh 9.6: EBQ v chi ph lu tr
BI TP THC HNH 4
(5 PHT)
Mt cng ty c th t sn xut cc chi tit ca mt sn phm vi sn lng l 4.000

n v trong mt tun. Nhu cu s dng chi tit l 2.000 n v trong mt tun. Chi
ph vn hnh ca mi chu trnh sn xut l 50 GBP. Chi ph lu tr mt n v hng
lu kho l 0,001 GBP trong mt tun. Hy tnh ton lng sn xut theo l kinh t.
3.5 nh hng ca cc khon chit khu

Chit khu theo s lng (quantity discount) l chit khu gi ca hng ha, nu
s lng t hng t n mt s xc nh trc. Nhiu cng ty sn xut c chit
khu theo gi (price discount) khi t hng nguyn liu v hng ha vi s lng ln
cng nh cc ca hng bn l c chit khu khi t hng ha vi s lng ln.
340

Ngi ta c th s dng m hnh EOQ c bn xc nh quy m t hng ti u
c chit khu theo s lng (quantity discount). Tuy nhin, vic p dng m hnh ny
b thay i i cht. By gi hm tng chi ph hng tn kho phi bao gm gi mua
ca hng ha c t hng.
Trc y gi mua khng c coi l mt phn ca cng thc EOQ, v n khng c
bt k nh hng no i vi quy m t hng ti u. Trong cng thc EOQ, gi v
cu (price and demand) s khng lm thay i hnh dng c bn ca ng cong
tng chi ph; tc l, im thp nht trn ng cong chi ph s vn nm cng v
tr tng ng vi cng gi tr ca Q. V vy, quy m t hng ti u khng thay i
bt k gi mua l bao nhiu. Tuy nhin, khi c chit khu gi th mc chit khu lin
quan n quy m t hng c th v c th khc vi quy m t hng ti u. Khch
hng phi so snh li ch gia hai trng hp: t hng vi khi lng ln, c
hng chit khu nhng c chi ph lu kho cao v t hng theo m hnh EOD, c th
khng c hng chit khu nhng gim thiu chi ph lu kho. Nh vy, gi mua
(purchase price) s nh hng n quyt nh v quy m t hng khi c chit khu.
Chng ta c th s dng Excel tnh nh hng ca cc khon chit khu. S
dng v d nu trn, chng ta c th thm n gi v cu trc chit khu (discount
structure).
Lng t hng ti u c th t ti mc m tng chi ph t hng bng tng chi ph

lu tr hoc mt mc khc. Vic xc nh lng t hng ti u lin quan n tng
chi ph hng nm (bao gm chi ph mua) i vi mi lng ny v ly s lng ng
vi tng chi ph thp nht.
T th bn di, chng ta thy cc khon chit khu mua bun khc nhau c
a ra 350 n v v 600 n v. Trong trng hp ny, tng chi ph ti thiu = 573
GBP khi t hng 600 n v, ch khng phi t theo lng t hng kinh t EOQ
(250 n v vi tng chi ph l 640,40 GBP).
341

700,0
600,0
Tng chi ph
Chi ph
500,0
400,0
Gi thc
300,0
200,0
Chi ph lu tr
Chi ph t hng
100,0
0
400
200
600
800
Lng t hng
Hnh 9.7: Lng t hng ti u

xc nh bng ton hc xem c nn nhn mt khon chit khu v t hng vi
s lng ln hn th phi ti thiu ha tng cc chi ph sau:
(a) Tng chi ph nguyn liu.
(b) Chi ph t hng.
(c) Chi ph lu tr hng tn kho.
Tng chi ph s c ti thiu ha:
(a) mc EOQ trc khi chit khu (pre-discount EOQ level) trong trng hp
ny khon chit khu khng cn gi tr na; hoc
(b) quy m t hng ti thiu cn thit c c khon chit khu.
Trong trng hp trn, nu c nhiu mc chit khu ng vi cc lng t hng
khc nhau, th phi nh gi tng lng t hng xc nh xem lng t hng
no tng chi ph l thp nht.
e.g.
V D
CHIT KHU MUA BUN
Nhu cu hng nm cho mt loi hng ha l 45 n v. Gi mua hng ha l 200

GBP/n v, chi ph lu tr mt n v hng ha l 15% gi thnh v chi ph t
hng l 300 GBP/n t hng.
Nh cung cp xut mt khon chit khu l 3% cho cc n t hng t 60 n
v tr ln v chit khu 5% cho n t hng t 90 n v tr ln. Quy m t hng
ti thiu ha chi ph l g?
BI GII
(a) EOQ khng tnh n chit khu l
2 x 300 x 45
15% ca 200
342

GBP
Mua (khng chit khu) 45 x 200 GBP
9.000
Chi ph lu tr 15 n v x 30 GBP
450
Chi ph t hng 1,5 n t hng x 300 GBP
450
Tng chi ph hng nm
9.900
(b) Nu chit khu 3% v lng t hng l 60 n v, th chi ph s l:

GBP
8.730
Mua 9.000 GBP x 97%

Chi ph lu tr 30 n v x 15% ca 97% ca 200 GBP
873
225
Tng chi ph hng nm
9.828
(c) Nu chit khu 5% v lng t hng l 90 n v, th chi ph s l:

GBP
Mua 9.000 GBP x 95%
8.550,0
Chi ph lu tr 45 n v x 15% ca 95% ca 200 GBP
1.282,5

Tng chi ph hng nm
150,0
9.982,5
Phng n r nht l t 60 n v hng ha mt thi im.

(d) Lu rng gi tr ca Ch khc nhau theo quy m chit khu v Ch l phn
trm chi ph mua hng. iu ny c ngha l tng chi ph lu tr gim do chit
khu. Vic ny c th d dng xy ra, nu phn ln Ch l chi ph bo him
da trn chi ph hng tn kho c lu tr.
BI TP THC HNH 5
(10 PHT)
Mt cng ty s dng mt loi hng ha nh sau:

Gi mua:
96 GBP/n v
Cu hng nm:
4.000 n v
Chi ph t hng:
300 GBP
Chi ph lu tr hng nm:
10% gi mua
Lng t hng kinh t:
500 n v
Cng ty c nn t hng 1.000 n v hng ha cng mt lc m bo khon chit

khu l 8%?
343
3.6 Phn tch nhy

Nu nghi ng chnh xc ca chi ph t hng v lu tr d on hoc nu c s
bt n trong lng cu, th c th s dng phn tch nhy (sensitivity analysis)
nh gi chi ph hng nm s b nh hng nh th no, nu la chn EOQ da trn
cc s liu khng chnh xc. n gin l chng ta so snh chi ph thc t vi chi ph
trong trng hp EOQ c tnh ng.
e.g.
V D
PHN TCH NHY
Cng ty TNHH Montelimar c tnh s s dng 100 tn Catcomine trong nm ti chnh

trc. Chi ph lu tr Catcomine hng nm l 5 GBP/tn. Chi ph t mt n hng l
10 GBP. S dng cng thc EOQ n gin, Cng ty TNHH Montelimar tnh quy m t
hng kinh t l 20 tn v ra chnh sch t hng Catcomine vi s lng ny khi ht
hng tn kho. Cui nm, cng ty nhn thy mnh s dng 120 tn Catcomine v chi
ph t mi n hng thc t l 14 GBP. Gim c iu hnh mun bit nh hng ti
chnh thun (net financial effect) ca vic d bo khng chnh xc.
BI GII
Chi ph thc t pht sinh nh sau:
GBP
ChQ
Chi ph lu tr
Chi ph t hng
CoD
Q
5 x 20
2
14 x 120
20
50
84
134
Lng t hng kinh t l:

2 x 14 x 120
5
= 25,92 tn
Tng chi ph s l:
GBP
Chi ph lu tr =
Chi ph t hng =
5 x 25,92
2
14 x 120
25,92
64,80
64,81
129,61
Do , cng ty pht sinh chi ph l 4,39 GBP cao hn cn thit. V vy, tng chi ph
khng nhy vi cc sai st d bo l khng ng k.
344
4 H THNG HOCH NH NHU CU NGUYN

VT LIU
Mc ch ca qun
l hng tn kho
(Objectives of
stock control)
Phng php qun l

hng tn kho n gin
(Simple methods of
stock control)
Qun l
hng tn kho
M hnh hng
tn kho
(Inventory models)
Mng li chui
cung ng
H thng hoch nh
nhu cu nguyn vt liu
planning - MRP)
4.1 H thng hoch nh vi tnh ha

Trong cc h thng sn xut truyn thng, qu trnh hoch nh c ci thin
ng k nh vi tnh ha.
NH NGHA
H thng hoch nh vi tnh ha (materials requirement planning) hay MRP I l mt
h thng vi tnh ha hoch nh cc nhu cu nguyn vt liu v linh kin, cm chi tit,
thnh phm.
y l mt h thng chuyn k hoch sn xut thnh danh sch nguyn vt liu v
cu kin cn thit p ng k hoch . V vy, cc mc hng tn kho thch hp
c m bo v c sn hng ha khi cn.
e.g.
V D
CC LI CH CA MRP
C th hiu cc li ch tim tng ca MRP I thng qua mt v d n gin. Gi s

mt cng ty sn xut sn phm X, sn phm ny bao gm hai cm chi tit (unit of
sub-assembly) A v mt cm chi tit B. Cng ty ch to cc cm chi tit ny. Mt
cm chi tit A cn su n v linh kin (unit of component) C v ba n v linh kin
D. Mt cm chi tit B cn bn n v linh kin D v nm n v linh kin E.
Trong mt h thng mua sm nguyn vt liu truyn thng, th cc n t hng mi
c lp cho cc sn phm trung gian, linh kin hoc nguyn vt liu khi mc hng
tn kho gim n mt mc t hng li. Sau mt l mi sn phm s c sn
xut. Trong v d trn, vic sn xut mt l mi sn phm X c th dn n yu cu
345

sn xut cc cm chi tit A hoc B. Ngc li, cc cm chi tit ny c th to ra cc
n t hng mi i vi bt k linh kin no ty thuc vo mc hng tn kho.
Khi mt quy trnh sn xut s dng nhiu cm chi tit, linh kin v nguyn vt liu,
th c th kh khn trong vic kim tra cc nhu cu nguyn vt liu v quy trnh t
hng li. S c ri ro khng c hng bn i vi cc mt hng chnh hoc tch tr
qu nhiu (overstocking) cc mt hng chnh gim ri ro khng c hng bn.
Mt kh khn khc l mi cm chi tit, linh kin hoc nguyn vt liu khng ging
nhau v thi gian hng sn xut (nu cng ty t sn xut) hoc thi gian thc hin
hng sn xut (nu c mua t bn ngoi). V th, nhim v trong hoch nh nhu
cu nguyn vt liu khng ch l t hng g vi s lng bao nhiu m phi m bo
cung ng kp thi.
MRP I bt ngun t nhng nm 60 - thi im gii thiu my tnh vo doanh nghip.
MRP I l mt h thng thng tin, hoch nh v kim sot vi tnh ha. N c th c
s dng trong mi trng sn xut truyn thng cng nh cc cng ngh sn xut
hin i. Nhng n c s dng nhiu nht vi sn xut theo l. Li th chnh ca
MRP I l c th x l s lng ln d liu, v th n s ch ra hot ng no phc tp
v tn thi gian.
Cc thnh phn ca h thng MRP I bao gm:
(a) H thng truy cp h s ghi chp hng tn kho (inventory records) ca
tt c cc loi hng ha (thnh phm, cm chi tit, linh kin, nguyn vt liu)
v nhn bit c cc mc hng tn kho hin c. i vi mi loi hng tn
kho th cng c h s ghi chp thi gian hng sn xut hoc thi gian thc
hin n hng.
(b) H thng truy cp danh mc nguyn vt liu (bill of materials) i vi mi
mt hng sn xut. Danh mc nguyn vt liu n gin l danh sch chi tit
cc cm chi tit, linh kin v nguyn vt liu gm c s lng cn thit ca
mi loi ch to mt hng.
(c) H thng cng truy cp k hoch sn xut trng im (master production
schedule). y l mt k hoch sn xut, chi tit ha s lng ca mi mt
hng cn sn xut v thi gian cn thit hon thnh sn phm. K hoch
sn xut trng im c lp t cc n t hng cng ty v cc d bo hin
thi v nhu cu tng lai trong khong thi gian d kin.
(d) S dng k hoch sn xut, danh mc nguyn vt liu v h s ghi chp
hng tn kho, h thng s tnh ton s lng vt liu c yu cu v thi
gian. Trong trng hp cc mt hng c mua t bn ngoi, th h thng
s bo co khi no phi t hng. Nu cc mt hng do chnh cng ty sn
xut, th h thng s a ra mt bng k hoch xc nh thi gian bt u
sn xut cho mi mt hng.
(e) H thng c th lp th t cng vic (work order), k hoch nguyn
vt liu (material plan) v n t hng (purchase order) t ng cho
Phng Mua hng.
(f) Khi thng tin v n t hng ca ngi mua thay i, th k hoch sn xut
c th c thay i nhanh chng v mt chng trnh mua sm nguyn
liu mi (materials procurement programme) s c t ng chun b.
346

Mc ch ca MRP I l:
(a) Ti thiu ha mc hng tn kho bng cch trnh tch tr qu nhiu hng hoc
mua nguyn liu sm hn cn thit.
(b) Trnh chi ph t hng gp.
(c) Gim ri ro khng c hng bn v hng hc trong qu trnh sn xut.
V vy MRP I lin quan n vic ti a ha hiu qu trong thi gian t hng nguyn
liu th hoc linh kin vi cc nh cung cp bn ngoi, lp k hoch sn xut v lp
rp thnh phm hiu qu.
Bng tng hp cc bc trong quy trnh Hoch nh nhu cu nguyn vt liu (MRP)
c trnh by di y:
(1) Cc n t hng v d bo cho mi khong thi gian, thng l mt ngy,
vi mi thnh phm c tr khi hng tn kho hin c ri cng vi bin lai
theo k hoch s d d kin theo ngy.
(2) Nu s d d kin theo ngy gim di 0 hoc mc t hng li, th chng
trnh MRP s lp li k hoch cho cc n t hng hin c. Nu khng c
n t hng no lp k hoch li, th MRP s to mt n t hng theo
k hoch iu chnh s d d kin theo ngy.
(3) Lng t hng theo k hoch c xy dng khi phc s d hng ngy
d kin hin c (l theo l), mt bi s s lng c nh (quy m l) hoc c
th l s lng cn nhiu php tnh phc tp hn lin quan n giai on
trc mt, cc tiu, cc i, bi s, v.v
(4) Tt c cc n t hng d kin, kt hp vi thi gian thc hin n hng
s l cn c pht sinh cc n t hng vo thi im thch hp. i vi
cc b phn do cng ty sn xut, thng tin t cc n hng d kin s c
c th ha thnh cc yu cu v nguyn vt liu da vo danh mc nguyn
vt liu ca tng b phn.
(5) n t hng d kin (planned order) mt mc s c c th ha thnh cc
yu cu mc tip theo bn di trong danh mc nguyn vt liu.
(6) Lp li cc bc trn cho tt c cc linh kin. Cu i vi cc linh kin c
gi chung l tng yu cu c hoch nh (projected gross requirement)
- l s kt hp ca cc n t hng v d bo.
4.2 H thng hoch nh ngun lc sn xut (MRP II)

H thng hoch nh ngun lc sn xut (MRP II) pht trin t MRP I vo nhng nm 70.
NH NGHA
H thng hoch nh ngun lc sn xut (Manufacturing Resource Planning - MRP II) l h thng
m rng ca h thng hoch nh nhu cu nguyn vt liu (MRP I) a ra mt phng php
hoch nh v lp k hoch ngun lc trong cc lnh vc khc nhau nh ti chnh, logistics, k thut
v marketing khi qut hn MRP I.
347

H thng hoch nh ngun lc sn xut MRP II lp k hoch cc cng vic sn xut
v cng tnh ton nhu cu ngun lc nh nhn cng v gi my.
S khc nhau chnh gia MRP II v MRP I l MRP II m rng h thng my tnh ra
khi phm vi cc hot ng sn xut v cung cp mt c s d liu chung cho tt
c cc chc nng trong t chc nh bn hng, marketing, ti chnh, logistics. MRP
II c gng tch hp hoch nh nhu cu nguyn vt liu, hoch nh nng lc nh
my, kim sot cng xng, thit k sn xut, k ton qun l, mua sm v thm
ch tin hnh marketing vo mt h thng kim sot hon chnh duy nht (v c
vi tnh ha).
Nu khng c mt h thng MRP II th mi chc nng ring bit trong cng ty s cn
c c s d liu ring, mc d mt s thng tin m cc chc nng ny s dng l
ging nhau.
e.g.
V D
H THNG HOCH NH NGUN LC SN XUT MRP II
Phng K thut sn xut cn thng tin v danh mc nguyn vt liu. Nu phng thay
i mt tiu chun k thut ca sn phm, th danh mc nguyn vt liu cng phi
thay i. Nu khng c mt h thng MRP II th s phi thay i c s d liu ca c
Phng Sn xut v Phng K thut sn xut. Cng s c nguy c l mt c s d
liu c cp nht nhng c s d liu khc th khng.
Phng Ti chnh s dng thng tin t ngn sch sn xut v danh mc nguyn vt
liu lp ngn sch, bo co chi ph, li nhun sn xut. Khi mt danh mc nguyn
vt liu thay i th Phng K ton phi bit tnh ton li chi ph sn xut. Khi k
hoch sn xut b sa i th Phng K ton phi bit chun b cc d bo chi
ph sn xut sa i. Nu khng c h thng MRP II th bt k thay i no trong
k hoch sn xut s phi c nhp ring vo c s d liu sn xut (production
database) v c s d liu k ton (accounting database).
V vy, h thng hoch nh ngun lc sn xut MRP II c nhng thun li ca mt
c s d liu chung - d dng cp nht v mt h thng c s d liu chung cho tt
c cc phng ban s dng.
H thng MRP I v MRP II nhn c s ng tnh t nhng ngi ng h h thng
phng php qun l v sn xut tinh gn, ng thi gian. Vn l phng php
MRP to ra mt m hnh biu th nhng g ang din ra trong nh my sn xut, ch
khng phi nhng g nn din ra. iu mang li nhng thi quen xu v lng ph.
Phng php ny cho php thi gian thc hin n hng di, s b tc trong sn
xut, quy m l ln. Nh qun l s khng c ng lc ci thin nng lc sn xut
v loi b lng ph khi nng sut, cht lng km tn ti trong h thng hoch nh
ngun lc sn xut MRP II.
4.3 Microsoft MRP

Microsoft MRP l mt c s d liu dng hoch nh nhu cu nguyn vt liu
trong quy trnh sn xut da trn hng tn kho, n t hng m, nhiu danh mc
nguyn vt liu v nhiu loi k hoch d bo. Microsoft MRP c pht trin trong
mi trng c s d liu Microsoft Access v tng i d s dng.
348

S di y trnh by tng quan v h thng:
Danh mc nguyn vt liu
Hng tn kho
Hng thu mua
D bo
Cc tnh ton MRP
Phn tch Excel
Nguyn vt liu yu cu
Phn tch bao qut
xut t hng
Bo co do ngi dng
xc nh
Hnh 9.8: Microsoft MRP

H thng da trn cc bng; mi bng lu tr thng tin v mt i tng c th ca
h thng. Cc bng c th nh sau:
(a) Bng Ph tng thay th (Spare Part) trong mi bn ghi s cha d liu
ca mt ph tng thay th. S c cc trng trong mi h s m t, n
v tnh, v tr, v.v
(b) Bng Nh cung cp (Suppliers) trong mi bn ghi s cha d liu ca mt
nh cung cp v cc trng trong h s ghi tn, a ch, s in thoi, v.v
(c) Bng Kho (Warehouse).
(d) Bng V tr (Locations).
Thng tin trong mi bng c pht trin thnh mt h thng bng cch thit lp mi
quan h gia cc bng. V d:
(a) Nh cung cp no cung cp b phn no.
(b) Ph tng no c lu tr ti v tr no.
(c) V tr no trong kho no.
Ngi dng tng tc vi h thng qua cc form (biu mu nhp liu) sau:
349

Menu v thanh cng c cho php truy cp cc chc nng ca ng dng, bao gm
cc form v bo co. C th s dng cc cu hi truy vn trong h thng tm kim
thng tin.
Nhiu k hoch hoc d bo sn xut c th c to ra trong ng dng. Ti mt thi
im ch c th s dng mt k hoch thc hin cc tnh ton v nhu cu nguyn
vt liu. Mi k hoch c lp trong ng dng c mt tham chiu (reference). Khi
mt k hoch c thit lp l k hoch hin ti th tham chiu ca n c lu tr,
sau c th c hin th trn form di y gii thch ngun gc d liu ca
k hoch hin ti. Form ny cung cp thng tin chi tit ca cc d bo sn xut v
ngun ca k hoch hin ti.
Tt c cc k hoch c 12 giai on di bng nhau v c th thay i c. Form
ny a ra d bo yu cu sn xut i vi tt c thnh phm v bn thnh phm
(semi-finished product).
Mi dng ca bng trn form a ra d bo cho mt thnh phm hoc bn thnh
phm trong 12 giai on tip theo ca k hoch. Ngy bt u ca mi giai on
c hin th nn c th tnh c thi gian ca tng giai on.
Cc form khc trnh by di y c s dng tnh ton cc yu cu v nguyn
vt liu cho k hoch hin ti trong thi gian thc hin, hng ha trong kho v cc
nh cung cp hng ha.
350

Tt nhin, nhiu cng ty s khng c loi h thng ny v s s dng mt bng tnh
lm c s d liu m chng ta s xem xt phn sau. Vy, s khc nhau gia bng
tnh v c s d liu l g?
Bng tnh c thit k linh ng hn trong s dng v trnh by thng tin. Ni
chung, chng ta c th d dng thc hin thao tc ton hc trn d liu trong mt
bng tnh.
C s d liu c thit k lu tr s lng d liu ln hn v chng cho php
lu tr d liu cn cho cc mc ch khc nhau ti mt v tr. C s d liu s dng
cc lnh truy vn thao tc vi d liu - c bit hu ch khi x l s lng ln d
liu. So snh n gin th bng tnh c xem nh mt trang giy in t c k ;
trong khi c s d liu c v nh mt t ng h s ti liu.
4.4 S dng bng tnh lm c s d liu

Gi phn mm bng tnh khng phi l c s d liu ng ngha, nhng chng
thng c cc chc nng ging nh mt c s d liu thao tc vi cc bng d
liu mt phm vi nh so vi mt c s d liu ng ngha.
C s d liu l tp hp d liu (collection of data) c tch hp v t chc
to nn mt h thng hon chnh duy nht (single comprehensive system). C
s d liu c kim sot bi cc nguyn tc quy nh cu trc ca n v xc nh
cc phng php truy cp d liu.
Mc ch ca c s d liu l cung cp phng php truy cp d dng
(convenient access) ti cc d liu chung cho nhiu ngi dng vi cc nhu
cu s dng khc nhau. Vic lu tr tt c d liu mt ni nhm trnh cc vn
pht sinh khi tn ti mt s phin bn ging nhau ca cng d liu nhng khng
bit r u l phin bn xc nh (definite version) v cng trnh phi nhp
nhiu ln cc d liu ging nhau.
V d, c Phng Qun tr bn hng v Phng Marketing ca mt t chc c th cn
thng tin c th v tn v a ch ca khch hng. Nu s dng cc h thng c
lp th c hai phng s cn phi nhp thng tin chi tit khi c bt k thay i no v
a ch. Nu hai phng s dng c s d liu chung cho thng tin ny th ch cn
nhp d liu mt ln.
Tnh nng sp xp d liu (sorting facilities)
Trong bng minh ha di y, d liu c th c sp xp bng cch nhn chn
cc ct t A n C v nhn vo Data (d liu), ri nhn Sort (sp xp). D liu
c sp xp theo th t tng dn (ascending) theo tn sn phm v th t gim
dn (descending) theo s thnh phn c s dng trong sn phm . Sau ,
d liu c copy vo cc ct t E n G. Ti y, d liu c sp xp li (reordered) theo s thnh phn v tn sn phm.
351
e.g.
352
V D
BNG TNH V C S D LIU
Di y l bng tnh c s dng kim sot hng tn kho.

Nu nghin cu k bng ny, bn c th nhn thy mt s mt hng ging nhau. V
d, c hai linh kin A001 v A003 u c s dng to ra Sn phm A. C hai
linh kin A001 v A005 c t t Nh cung cp P750.
S thun tin hn nu chng ta c th thao tc (manipulate) vi cc d liu ny theo
cch no , chng hn, ly mt danh mc y tt c linh kin c s dng
to ra Sn phm A hoc danh mc tt c cc linh kin c cung cp bi Nh cung
cp P750? Tt nhin, chng ta c th lm vic ny ch vi mt ln nhn chut.
Trong bng Excel, bn c th nhn menu Data v chn FilterAuto filter (trong cc
phin bn Excel mi hn, bn ch cn nhn vo biu tng Filter). Mt mi tn ch
xung xut hin bn cnh mi tiu v nu bn nhn vo mt trong cc mi tn th s
xut hin mt danh sch th xung gm cc phn t khc nhau trong ct tng ng.
Trong v d ny, ngi dng nhn mi tn trong ct Nh cung cp (Supplier) v s

la chn Nh cung cp 750. Di y l kt qu:
Bng ny cho thy Nh cung cp P750 cung cp linh kin A001, A005 v A014.
Khng c bt k linh kin no trong s ny ang c t hng nh cung cp ny
353

xut hin v nh cung cp ny ch ng vai tr quan trng i vi cc Sn phm A,
E v C, v.v
Nu d liu gc c khi phc (bng cch nhn vo mi tn Nh cung cp v chn
All - tt c), sau nhn mi tn trong ct Sn phm (Product), chng ta c th xem
tt c linh kin c s dng cho Sn phm A v tt c nh cung cp ca cc linh
kin , bit xem hin c bt k linh kin no c t hng (tc l c th tr
hon trong l tip theo ca Sn phm A), v.v
BI TP THC HNH 6
(20 PHT)
Xy dng bng tnh trang trc. C th phi s dng tnh nng h tr trc tuyn
(n phm F1) nu bn khng nm chc cng thc c s dng.
S dng ty chn Data. Filters tr li cc cu hi sau:
(a) Nh cung cp P888 cung cp linh kin no?
(b) Linh kin no c s dng trong sn phm E?
(c) Nh cung cp no phi giao hng mi?
Chng ta c th s dng li v d trn tnh lng t hng kinh t EOQ v lng
sn xut theo l kinh t EBQ, ng thi chng minh chng ta c th s dng h thng
hiu qu nh th no. S liu bn hng d kin trong bng tnh di y (Sheet 1)
c kt hp vi Sheet 2 nh minh ha trong thanh cng thc (formular bar), bt
k s thay i no trong Sheet 2 s c t ng phn nh trong qu trnh t hng
linh kin v tnh ton li lng t hng kinh t EOQ.
Sheet 1
354

Sheet 2 bn di, bt k thay i no trong doanh s d kin ca Sn phm A, B,
C hoc bt k thay i no trong s b tr linh kin cho u vo sn phm, do ngi
dng thc hin hoc c thay i ti mt khu vc khc ca bng tnh h thng
(system spreadsheet), s c phn nh trn bng cha thng tin chi tit v linh
kin - trong v d th l Linh kin 1. S liu c tnh trong F7 s t ng cp
nht Sheet 1 v thay i cu trc t hng i vi linh kin ny.
Sheet 2
C th c nhiu bng cho mi quy trnh v cc bng c kt hp vi nhau bt k

thay i no s c phn nh trong ton b quy trnh. Bng tnh cc nhu cu nguyn
vt liu ca quy trnh s c kt hp vi h thng qun l dng tin v h thng k
ton ging nh trong phn h bn hng.
5 MNG LI CHUI CUNG NG

Mc ch ca qun
l hng tn kho
(Objectives of
stock control)
Phng php qun l

hng tn kho n gin
(Simple methods of
stock control)
Qun l
hng tn kho
M hnh hng
tn kho
(Inventory models)
Mng li chui
cung ng
H thng hoch nh
nhu cu nguyn vt liu
planning - MRP)
NH NGHA
Mng li chui cung ng (supply chain network) l mt nhm cc t chc kt ni vi nhau. Cc
t chc ny quan h vi nhau da trn lin kt gia cc quy trnh v hot ng khc nhau trong qu
trnh to ra sn phm/dch v cho ngi tiu dng cui cng.
355

Ngy cng c nhiu t chc nhn ra s cn thit v li ch ca vic thit lp cc lin
kt khp kn (close links) vi cc cng ty trong chui cung ng. Trc y, cc doanh
nghip trong mng li chui cung ng hot ng tng i c lp (independently)
vi nhau to ra gi tr cho mt ngi tiu dng cui cng. Tnh c lp c duy
tr thng qua vic lu tr hng d tr bnh n, qun l nng lc v thi gian thc hin
n hng. Cc cng ty c rt t s kim sot i vi cc thnh vin khc ca chui cung
ng, cha ni n vic nhn nhn ton b chui nh mt h thng.
Tuy nhin, trc yu cu ca th trng v tnh hnh cnh tranh hin nay, vic qun
l cht thi gian sn xut v thi gian thc hin n hng gip cc doanh
nghip ang gim hng tn kho v nng lc d tha. Do , lin kt gia cc doanh
nghip trong mng li chui cung ng phi tr nn cht ch hn. iu kin mi ny
c ch ra trong m hnh chui cung ng tch hp (integrated supply chain)
(m hnh th hai trong s sau):
M hnh chui cung ng truyn thng v tch hp
Chui cung ng truyn thng
Nh cung
cp 2
Nh cung
cp 1
Nh sn xut
ban u
Khch
hng cp 1
Khch hng
cui cng
Chui cung ng tch hp
Khch hng
Khch
cui cng
hng cp 1
Nh
sn
xut
Nh cung
ban u
cp 1
Nh cung
cp 2
Mc ch ca m hnh l phi hp hot ng trong ton b mng li t cc nh cung

cp nguyn liu th n khch hng cui cng. Chui phi c coi l mng li
(network) ch khng phi l ng lin hp (pipeline) - mt mng li cung ng
h tr mng li khch hng, trong bn th ba l doanh nghip vn ti gip lin
kt cc cng ty vi nhau. Trong cc knh marketing, t chc phi qun l s cn bng
gia mong mun duy tr tnh c lp v t ch (independent and autonomous),
cng nh s cn thit phi ph thuc v hp tc vi nhau (interdependent and
co-operative).
356
NH NGHA
S c lp (independence): Mi thnh vin trong knh hot ng c lp vi nhau v khng nh
hng n nhau, v th s duy tr mt mc kim sot cao hn.
S ph thuc ln nhau (interdependence): Mi thnh vin trong knh c th tc ng n hot
ng ca cc thnh vin khc.
Nu nh cung cp bit khch hng ca mnh cn g, th h khng cn phi on
hoc ch i n khi khch hng t mt n hng. Nh cung cp c kh nng
hoch nh tt hn h thng cung cp ca mnh. S dng Internet to iu kin
cho khch hng v nh cung cp tm kim nhng thng tin cp nht v nhu cu c
d bo (forecasted needs) v k hoch cung cp (delivery schedules) tr nn ph
bin v cng c nhiu cng ty s dng. Cc quan h trong chui cung ng c tng
cng v s lin lc c thc y thng qua vic s dng mng extranet (mng
intranet m ngi ngoi c php truy cp).
5.1 Tm quan trng ca qun l chui cung ng

Qun l chui cung ng (supply chain management) bao gm ti u ha hot ng
ca cng ty to ra hng ha v dch v. Xu th hng n cc mi quan h gn
gi hn vi nh cung cp v pht trin mng li chui cung ng c tm quan trng
i vi qun l chui cung ng.
(a) Gim s lng khch hng cn phc v (reduction in customers
served). Nhm mc ch tp trung, cng ty c th dn ngun lc vo khch
hng c gi tr tim nng ln (customer of high potential value).
(b) Phi hp gia gi v hng tn kho (price and stock co-ordination). Cc
doanh nghip phi hp xy dng cc chnh sch gi v chnh sch hng tn
kho trnh cc vn v tc nghn do s gia tng ngn hn trong cu,
chng hn chnh sch xc tin thng mi.
(c) Cc h thng my tnh c kt ni (linked computer systems). Cc
lin kt khp kn hn c th c thc y thng qua vic s dng cc
chun cng ngh nh chun Trao i d liu in t (Electronic Data
Interchange - EDI), cho php giao tip, lp ha n v thanh ton khng
giy t qua mng extranet.
(d) S tham gia sm ca nh cung cp (early supplier involvement) trong
vic pht trin sn phm v thit k linh kin.
(e) Thit k hot ng logistics (logistics design). Hewlett-Packard ti c
cu h thng phn phi ca mnh bng vic cho php b sung mt s linh kin
vo sn phm kho phn phi, ch khng phi nh my trung tm. V d, s
tay hng dn ngi dng (user-manuals), vn c trng cho th trng Php
s c b sung trung tm phn phi Php.
(f) Gii quyt vn cng nhau (joint problem-solving).
(g) i din nh cung cp hin din (supplier representative on site).
Mc ch qun l chui cung ng ca doanh nghip l em li li ch cho tt c
cc bn tham gia nh s ci thin v tc (speed), s tin cy (dependability) v
chi ph (cost).
357
TNG KT CHNG
Mc ch ca qun l hng tn kho l ti thiu ha chi ph lu tr hng tn kho

ng thi m bo c hng tn kho khi cn.
Cc phng php qun l hng tn kho n gin bao gm xc nh thi gian t

hng li theo nhu cu, k khai thng xuyn v kim k nh k.
Phn tch theo quy lut Pareto l mt k thut bo hiu n gin ch r thc t
rng gi tr thc trong bt k th g c th ch tp trung mt vi khu vc.
Phng php sn xut tc thi (Just in time - JIT) l mt phng php hoch
nh v kim sot da trn tng rng hng ha ch c sn xut khi cn.
M hnh lng t hng kinh t EOQ ch ra mi quan h gia cu, chi ph t

hng v chi ph lu tr. Cng thc EOQ l:
Q=
Ch
M hnh lng t hng kinh t EOQ phi c chnh sa i vi sn xut theo

l xem xt sn lng. Cng thc EBQ l:
Q=
2CoD
2CoD
Ch(1 D/R)
Nu c cc khon chit khu th cn so snh chi ph mua EOQ hng nm khng

c chit khu v chi ph mua hng ha hng nm c chit khu.
C nhiu h thng nng cao hiu qu qun l hot ng. H thng hoch nh
nhu cu nguyn vt liu (MRP I) l mt h thng vi tnh ha hoch nh v t
nguyn liu da trn k hoch sn xut trng im, ha n nguyn liu v s
sch mc hng tn kho.
H thng hoch nh ngun lc sn xut (MRP II) l h thng m rng ca MRP

I. H thng ny gn qu trnh sn xut, hoch nh nhu cu nguyn vt liu, k
thut, ti chnh v c s d liu marketing vo mt c s d liu h thng kim
sot hoch nh.
CU HI N TP
1 Nu mc ch ca qun l hng tn kho.
2 Gii thch phng php xc nh thi gian t hng li theo nhu cu trong kim
sot hng tn kho.
3 Phng php k khai thng xuyn l g?
4 Li ch ca m hnh lng t hng kinh t EOQ l g?
5 Ti sao cn c mt cng thc EOQ sa i (i khi c gi l cng thc EBQ)?
358

6 lng t hng no chi ph c th c ti thiu ha khi c chit khu
mua bun?
7 Khi no phn tch nhy tr nn hu ch?
P N CU HI N TP
1 Mc ch ca qun l hng tn kho l duy tr cc mc hng tn kho tng cc
chi ph sau c ti thiu ha.
Chi ph lu tr
Chi ph t hng
Chi ph khng c hng bn
2 Phng php xc nh thi gian t hng li theo nhu cu trong kim sot hng
tn kho bao gm tnh ton mt mc hng tn kho (mc t hng li). Phng
php ny s gip nh qun l bit khi no cn t thm hng. Nu ri ro khng
c hng bn c th trnh th mt mc t hng li khn ngoan s c tnh
nh sau.
Mc t hng li = thi gian giao hng ti a x lng s dng ti a.
Nh qun l phi chc chn rng cc t kim tra thng xuyn c thc hin,
kim tra xem hng tn kho c gim n mc t hng li hay khng.
Lng t hng li l lng hng ha c t hng khi hng trong kho t
n mc t hng li. Lng t hng li l lng hng ha ti u c t hng
khi cn hng ha mi.
3 Phng php k khai thng xuyn bao gm vic bit c cc mc hng tn
kho ca tt c cc mt hng ti mi thi im. Mt h s gm tt c chng t
bao gm bin lai, ha n xut hng v s d hng tn kho.
4 Cc gi thit c s dng trong m hnh EOQ l:
(a) Cu l i lng chc chn, khng i v lin tc theo thi gian.
(b) Thi gian thc hin n hng cung ng l khng i v chc chn hoc c
s ti cung ng tc thi.
(c) Cc n t hng ca khch hng vn phi c p ng trong thi gian
thc hin n hng.
(d) Khng c ri ro khng c hng bn.
(e) Tt c gi l khng i v khng c chit khu mua bun.
(f) Chi ph lu tr hng tn kho t l vi s lng hng tn kho c lu tr.
5 Mt cng thc EOQ sa i i khi cn thit khi vic ti cung ng din ra mt
cch t t, thay v ngay lp tc.
6 Chi ph c th c ti thiu ha:
(a) Mc EOQ trc khi chit khu khon chit khu khng cn gi tr na;
hoc
(b) Quy m t hng ti thiu cn thit c c khon chit khu.
359

7 Phn tch nhy c th hu ch khi c nghi ng v chnh xc ca cc chi ph
t hng v lu tr hng d kin hoc khi c s khng chc chn v lng cu.
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 (a)
GBP
Thu (8.000/40.000) GBP (W1)
0,20
Giao hng (24.000/480.000) GBP (W2)
0,05
Mua ((45.400 + 31.400)/480.000) GBP
0,16
Lu tr ((75.600 + 34.800)/480.000) GBP
0,23
Bo him (4.800/40.000) GBP
0,12
0,76
Cc php tnh
1 Ch c ch cho 40.000 mt hng cn phi thu v ch 40.000 mt hng
cn bo him.
2 Ph giao hng v cc ph khc dnh cho hng tn kho ca mt nm:
12 x 40.000 = 480.000.
(b) Nhiu chi ph nu trong Phn 1.2 v 1.3 cng c th lin quan, c th chi ph
chim dng vn (2,50 + 0,76) GBP x 40.000 = 130.400 GBP vn chi cho hng
tn kho mt thng (tin li tr hoc khng thu c, vic s dng tin sinh
li nhiu hn, v.v) v chi ph ca bt k s lng ph hng tn kho no trong
kho. Bn khng c cng cc chi ph sn xut nh x l nguyn vt liu hay
lng ph trong qu trnh sn xut.
Lu rng mt phn tch c th tt c cc s liu cng s hu ch. Cc chi
ph ny c th khng lin quan n vic mua v lu tr hng tn kho.
2 Mc t hng li
= 13 tun x 4.000 kg
= 52.000 kg
Lng t hng li = 60.000 (52.000 10.000) (W)

= 18.000 kg
Cc php tnh
Cng ty s t mt n hng khi hng tn kho t 52.000 kg. Cng ty s s dng
t nht 5 tun x 2.000 kg trc khi t giao hng mi n v s c n (52.000
10.000) kg tha ti thi im ny. Cng ty ch c th lu tr 60.000 kg, v vy n
t hng khng c lm hng tn kho vt trn mc ny. Tm li:
Lng t hng li = hng tn kho ti a (mc t hng li lng s dng ti
thiu trong thi gian giao hng).
360

3 Co
170 GBP
600.000
Ch
30 GBP x 15% = 4,50 GBP
EOQ =
4 Q

2 x 170 x 600.000
4,5
= 6.733 n v
2 x 50 x 2.000
0,001(1 2.000/4.000)
= 20.000 n v (gi s mt chu k hng tn kho ko di 10 tun)
5 Tng chi ph hng nm mc lng t hng kinh t 500 n v nh sau:

GBP
Mua 4.000 x 96 GBP
384.000
Chi ph t hng 300 GBP x (4.000/500)
2.400
Chi ph lu tr 96 GBP x 10% x (500/2)
2.400
388.800
Tng chi ph hng nm mc lng t hng kinh t 1.000 n v nh sau:

GBP
Mua 384.000 GBP x 92%
353.280
Chi ph t hng 300 GBP x (4.000/1.000)
1.200
Chi ph lu tr 96 GBP x 92% x 10% x (1.000/2)
4.416
358.896
Nu cng ty t 1.000 n v hng mt lc th s tit kim c

(388.800 358.896) GBP = 29.904 GBP mt nm.
6 Phi chc chn rng bn ang s dng cc tnh nng bng tnh ch khng phi ch
nhn vo bng. Bn s phi s dng cc tnh nng bng tnh nu bn phi tm kim
trong tng s 2.000 linh kin hng tn kho.
(a) A003, A009 v A017
(b) A005 v A009
(c) P036 v P227
361
GHI CH CUI CHNG
362
Chng
10
Cc cng c v phng
php qun tr d n
Qun tr d n
(Project management)
Cc phng php hoch

nh v cung cp ngun lc
(Planning and
resourcing techniques)
Cc cng c v phng
php qun tr d n
(Project management tools
and techniques)
Phn tch d n theo

s mng
(Projects as networks)
Phn mm qun tr d n
(Project management
software)
Cc cng c
hoch nh d n
(More project planning
tools)
Gii thiu
Chng ta s bt u chng ny bng vic nghin cu mt s cng c v phng
php qun tr sn c h tr quy trnh qun tr d n. Cc cng c v phng php
ny c vai tr rt quan trng, v th chng ti rt mong bn c th hiu v p dng cc
phng php c a ra.
Phn tch s mng l phng php sp xp hot ng trong mt d n v ch ra
cc mi quan h tng tc. Vic chn ng thi im c tnh quyt nh v chng ta
s bit cch tm ng gng - l mt chui cng vic, trong bt k s chm tr ca
cng vic no trong s cng ko theo s chm tr ca ton b d n. Vic thc
hin cc cng vic c th mt t hoc nhiu thi gian hn d kin, do chng ta s
nghin cu phng php nh gi v tng kt d n PERT - phng php x l cc
bt n nh th. Chng ta cng s nghin cu biu Gantt. l biu c s
dng c lng thi gian hoc ngun lc cn c cho mt d n.
Cng nh vi nhiu cng vic khc, cng vic qun tr d n hin nay ang c
thc hin bng my tnh. Mc d cc phn mm qun tr d n chuyn ngnh sn
c, nhng ch cn s dng phn mm bng tnh chng ta cng c th thc hin tt
c cc k thut qun tr d n.
363
Mc tiu bi hc
Hiu c quy trnh hot ng v phng php qun tr d n.
Lp k hoch d n.
Bit cch v c cu phn tch cng vic.
Bit cch s dng mt s cng c hoch nh d n, v d biu Gantt, s
mng v biu ngun lc.
Xc nh ng gng.
Xy dng mt k hoch d n c bn thng qua bng tnh hoc phn mm
qun tr d n.
1 QUN TR D N
Qun tr d n
Cc phng php hoch

(Planning and
Cc cng c v phng
php qun tr d n
and techniques)
Phn tch d n theo

s mng
Phn mm qun tr d n
(Project management
software)
Cc cng c
hoch nh d n
tools)
1.1 D n l g?
NH NGHA
D n (project) l mt cng vic c im khi u v im kt thc, c thc hin nhm p ng
cc mc tiu nh trc v chi ph, lch trnh v cht lng (theo Haynes, cun Project Management
- tm dch, Qun tr d n). Spinner (trong cun Elements of Project Management - tm dch, Cc yu
t ca Qun tr d n) nh ngha mt d n c cc c im nh sau:
(a) C im bt u v im kt thc c th.
(b) C mc tiu xc nh r rng.
(c) Kt qu ca d n l duy nht v khng lp li.
(d) D n thng cn ch ph v lch trnh thc hin nhm to ra mt sn phm
hoc mt kt qu c th.
(e) D n c th l s hp tc lin t chc v lin chc nng.
364
Chng 10: Cc cng c v phng php qun tr d n

y l mt s v d v d n (theo cch phn loi ca Dennis Lock).
(a) Thit k v xy dng. Vic xy dng ng hm Channel ni Anh v
Php l mt d n v d n kt thc khi ng hm c m phc
v ngi dn.
(b) Trong sn xut, vic t chc theo d n c th l mt c trng cho sn
xut theo cng vic (job production). V d, theo cc tiu chun k thut
chnh xc, vic xy dng mt gin khoan du lin quan ti s phi hp s
lng ln cc cng vic ring r. Cc cng vic s kt thc khi gin khoan
du c hon thnh.
(c) Trong qun tr, d n c th l s pht trin ca mt h thng my tnh mi
hay t chc mt cuc trin lm thng mi ln.
(d) Nghin cu v pht trin l mt lnh vc phc tp.
(i) Mt s d n nghin cu, v d d n quc t nhm lp bn gien ca
con ngi, c cc mc tiu r rng nhng khng phi lc no cng c
th thc hin cc d n theo mt lch trnh cht ch, nht l i vi
cc d n mi khi ng.
(ii) Tuy nhin, mt s cng vic nghin cu l khng gii hn, c th cn
c vo kt qu nghin cu xut mt s d n khc.
Theo Dennis Lock, tt c cc d n u lin quan ti vic bin tng v cng vic
thnh kt qu mi. Khng d n no ging ht vi cc d n c thc hin trc
. Cc giai on v cng vic dn ti s hon thnh c th chng bao gi c
m t chnh xc lc u. V th, theo Lock, cng tc qun tr d n l nhm d bo
c cng nhiu nguy c cng tt, ng thi lp k hoch, t chc v kim tra cc
cng vic trnh cc nguy c .
1.2 Cc c im ring bit ca qun tr d n

Qun tr d n hng ti s kt thc. V th, qun tr d n c mt mc tiu nht nh
v cn thc hin trong mt khong thi gian c gii hn.
Do , c mt vi vn c th trong qun tr d n:
(a) Xy dng nhm (teambuilding). Cng vic c thc hin bi mt nhm
ngi. Nhng ngi ny c th c tp hp li ch cho mt d n, nhng
h phi l nhng ngi c th trao i vi nhau mt cch hiu qu v ngay
khi cn thit.
(b) C th c nhiu vn mi theo d kin. Mi vn cn c gii quyt theo
k hoch v phng n c hoch nh k lng trc khi bt u cng vic.
(c) C th c nhiu vn mi bt ng, c bit vi mt d n hot ng trong
gii hn ca cng ngh mi v cng ngh hin c. Chng ta nn c cc c
ch trong phm vi cho php ca d n nhm gip gii quyt nhng vn
ny trong khong thi gian thc hin d n, m khng lm nh hng n
mc tiu, chi ph hoc thi gian thc hin.
(d) Li ch b tr hon (delayed benefit). Thng thng, d n khng mang li
li ch g cho n khi cng vic c hon thnh. Vic ny c th gy ra s
cng thng cho ngi hng li cui cng (eventual recipient) - ngi phi
i din vi tnh trng chi ph ngy cng tng ln m khng c li ch no
trc mt, ng thi l nhng ngi lun cm thy thiu thn cho n khi thu
c li ch d thng l mt s ci thin ln.
365

(e) Cc ng gp ca cc chuyn gia c tm quan trng khc nhau tng giai
on. Vic t chc mt nhm thng rt kh khn, v cc chuyn gia c xu
hng coi ng gp ca h quan trng hn ng gp ca nhng ngi khc
v khng hiu c tm quan trng ca mi quan h tng tc gia cc
chuyn gia trong phm vi d n.
(f) Nu d n bao gm cc bn c cc li ch khc nhau lin quan ti kt qu
th gia h c th xy ra cc tranh chp.
Ti sao cc d n li tht bi? Cn c vo tt c v d trn, chng ta c th i n
cc kt lun sau:
(a) Vic c lng thi gian thc hin d n c th rt kh, khi d n lin quan
n cng ngh mi hoc cng ngh hin c, v bn thn cc cng ngh ny
cng c nhng gii hn nht nh.
(b) Nhng nh thit k c suy ngh lc quan hay nh gi cc chi ph qu thp,
c bit l vi cng ngh mi.
(c) Cc tiu chun k thut m khch hng t ra khng r rng hoc thay
i lin tc khin cho khng th tun th thi gian thc hin v chi ph
hoch nh.
(d) Cc nhm qun tr d n thng khng thc hin c vic kim sot trong
cc trng hp hay thay i.
(e) Khi d n tht bi v thi gian v tin bc, nu nhm qun tr d n v cc
nh thu khc nhau li a ra cc nhn nh lc quan v h cam kt mt cch
khn kho vi cc khch hng v tin hon thnh th d n cng kh hy
b v khng ai dm a ra quyt nh.
Tuy nhin, c v s v d v cc d n c hon thnh ng thi gian trong phm
vi ngn sch cho php, ng thi thc hin theo ng tiu chun k thut. Chng ta
c th tm thy cc v d in hnh trong lnh vc pht trin ti sn thng mi, khi tp
hp c cc nhm qun tr d n c kinh nghim v d n ph thuc cht ch vo
lc lng ca th trng. Mt v d in hnh l vic xy dng trm ga cui (terminus)
cho tu i qua ng hm Channel nh ga Waterloo ca Lun n: cng tc xy
dng trm ny hon thnh trc khi bt u cc dch v chuyn ch hnh khch qua
ng hm Channel mt khong thi gian.
Cc mc tiu ca qun tr d n
Ni chung, cc mc tiu ca qun tr d n nhm p ng cc yu cu v:
(a) Cht lng (quality). Kt qu cui cng phi ng vi tiu chun k thut
theo quy nh. Hay ni cch khc, kt qu phi t c nhng g l ra d
n phi t c.
(b) Ngn sch (budget). D n phi c hon thnh m khng vt qu chi
ph cho php.
(c) Thang thi gian (timescale). Tin ca d n phi ng vi quy trnh
ln k hoch, do c th sn sng s dng kt qu ca d n vo ngy
thng nht. V thi gian l tin bc nn vic qun l thi gian ph hp c th
gip hn ch cc chi ph.
366
1.3 Vng i d n
Chng ta c th xc nh c tt c cc giai on ca mt d n in hnh, d n l
d n xy dng hoc d n thit k h thng. Vng i d n (project cycle life)
c cc giai on sau:
(a) Hnh thnh v nh hng d n.
(b) Hoch nh d n - Cng tc ny bao gm ba giai on ngay khi mc tiu c
bn ca d n v cc cng vic ch yu thng nht.
(i) Phn chia d n thnh cc n v c th qun l c (manageable
units). Qu trnh ny thit lp mt c cu phn tch cng vic (work
breakdown structure).
(ii) i vi mi n v, cc ngun lc cn c (nguyn vt liu, tin bc v
thi gian) phi c c lng.
(iii) Nhng yu cu v thi gian v ngun lc khc nhau ca mi n v
ph thuc sau s c c tnh v phi hp vi nhau thnh mt
khung k hoch, lp lch trnh v phn nhm cc cng vic theo
phng thc ph hp nht. Biu Gantt (Gantt chart) v phn tch
s mng (network analysis) c th c s dng y. Xc nh
chi ph cng l mt phn ca giai on hoch nh d n.
(c) Thc hin k hoch (thc hin d n) v kim sot - Cc biu kim sot
d n s dng cc k hoch v ngn sch v lch trnh bo co thi gian
v chi ph, t tnh ton cc thay i.
(d) Hon thnh (completing) v nh gi (evaluating) d n.
Bn hy nh rng trong tt c cc giai on ca d n, nhn t tc ng quan trng
nht l cht lng (ca thit k v s thng nht), chi ph v thi gian.
2 CC PHNG PHP HOCH NH V CUNG CP

NGUN LC
Qun tr d n
Cc phng php hoch

(Planning and
Cc cng c v phng
php qun tr d n
and techniques)
Phn tch d n theo

s mng
Phn mm qun tr d n
(Project management
software)
Cc cng c
hoch nh d n
tools)
367
2.1 Hoch nh d n
Mi ngi c cc phng php hoch nh d n khc nhau. Chng ta s s dng
cc bc sau gii thch quy trnh ny:
(a) Phn tch d n (analyse the project). D n c phn tch thnh cc
nhim v hoc cng vic c bn. Cn kim tra cch thc cc cng vic lin
quan vi nhau. V d, khng th thc hin cng vic no cho n khi mt
hoc mt s cng vic trc hon thnh?
(b) c lng thi gian v chi ph ca mi cng vic (estimate the time and
costs of each activity). Thi gian cho mi cng vic c c lng, ng
thi cc chi ph km theo cng c c tnh.
(c) V s mng (draw the network). Chui cng vic c biu din di
dng s gi l s mng (network diagram).
(d) Xc nh ng gng (locate the critical path). y l chui s kin xc
nh thi gian thc hin ton b d n. Bt k s chm tr no vi mt cng
vic trn ng gng s lm chm tr ton b d n; nhng chm tr vi cc
cng vic khc c th khng nh hng n ton b lch trnh hon thnh d
n. l im khc bit gia cc cng vic trn ng gng v cc cng
vic khng nm trn ng gng.
(e) Lp lch trnh d n (schedule the project). Xc nh chui s kin t
tin nhanh v tit kim chi ph nht.
(f) Theo di v kim sot tin ca d n (monitor and control the
progress of the project). Cng tc ny c hm rng chng ta phi c bit
ch n lch trnh v nn v bt k biu tin no khc theo di tin
thc t theo yu cu ra.
(g) Sa i k hoch (revise the plan). K hoch c th cn thay i tnh
n cc vn xy ra trong qu trnh thc hin d n.
2.2 C cu phn tch cng vic

Thng thng, vic phn chia d n thnh cc pha (phase) hoc giai on (stage)
(c cu phn tch cng vic) l phng php hiu qu nht :
(a) Xc nh y , khng b st cng vic no phi c thc hin trong
d n.
(b) Xc nh cc ngun lc cn c.
(c) Lp th t cc cng vic lm, do c th phn b ngun lc theo
cch tt nht.
Sau y l v d v c cu phn tch cng vic ( work breakdown structure - WBS).
v d ny, vic xy dng mt ngi nh c th c chia nh thnh cc cng vic
nh mc ng dy cp in; lp t ph kin nh hc cm in, cng tc n v
cng tc pha; mc hp cu dao t ng; kim nghim v ni mch; o mng, kim
tra v b tng mng nh v.v...
368
D n: Xy nh
Cp 1
Nn mng
H thng
cp nc
H thng
thot nc
Sn nh
Lp
o
mng
Chng thm
H thng
dy in
Cp 2
Cp 2
Xc nh
mt bng
Phn xy th
b t nn
Ni in li
H thng n
Hp cu ch
cm in
Hnh 10.1: V d v c cu phn tch cng vic

Quy trnh phn tch cng vic tip tc cho n khi t ti n v ph (sub-unit) nh
nht c th. V d, cng tc o mng s c phn tch xc nh gi lao ng
v chi ph cn c.
BI TP THC HNH 1
(20 PHT)
V c cu phn tch cng vic cho vic tuyn dng nhn s b nhim vo mt
v tr.
2.3 c lng
Dennis Lock ch ra rng vic c lng chnh xc cc chi ph cho d n s to
c s ph hp cho vic kim sot qun l.
biu th mc chnh xc, trong mt s ngnh, vic c lng c phn chia
c th hn nh sau:
(a) c lng gn ng (ball-park estimate) c thc hin trc khi d n
bt u. Cc c lng ny thc ra mi ch l c lng s b v c th
chnh xc trong khong 25%.
(b) c lng so snh (comparative estimate) c thc hin nu d n ang
xem xt c mt s im tng ng vi cc d n trc . Tt nhin,
chnh xc s ph thuc vo mc tng ng gia d n ny v d n m
n c so snh. Lock cho rng c lng kiu ny c th chnh xc trong
khong 15%.
(c) c lng kh thi (feasibility estimate) (chnh xc trong khong 10%)
pht sinh t cc kha cnh ca cng vic thit k s b. Cc cng ty xy dng
s dng cc c lng kh thi.
(d) c lng ng tin cy (definitive estimate) (chnh xc trong khong 5%)
ch c thc hin khi hon tt ton b cng vic thit k.
369

Bt k mt c lng no cng phi c i km vi mt iu khon nu r chnh
xc d kin (expected accuracy) ca c lng . Tuy nhin, vic c lng d n
khng th trnh c cc phng on sai (fallible guesswork). K vng chnh xc
tuyt i l khng hp l, nhng nh qun tr d n khng nn i chch phm vi c
lng, c bit l i vi cc d n:
(a) Khng c bin an ton (margin of safety).
(b) Phi gim st cht ch v bin li nhun.
BI TP THC HNH 2
(10 PHT)
Cng ty Xy dng Springfield nht tr thc hin cng trnh xy dng Gowley
House, mt ngi nh cn phi c tn trang li Hertfordshire. Cc th xy dng
Springfield ang i ngi ch ca Gowley House tng s tin l 100.000 GBP. H
c lng cng vic ny s khin h tn 80.000 GBP, cng thm khon li nhun
c lng l 20.000 GBP. Li nhun s b nh hng nh th no, nu cc sai s
c lng chi ph l:
(a) +/ 5%
(b) +/ 10%
(c) +/ 20%
C th ci thin cc c lng bng cch:
(a) Rt kinh nghim t cc sai lm trong qu kh.
(b) Thu thp cc thng tin thit k y .
(c) m bo rng khch hng a ra cc tiu chun k thut cng chi tit
cng tt.
(d) Phn tch cng vic thnh cc n v cu thnh mt cch hp l, c bit v
chi ph lao ng.
2.4 c lng chi ph

C cu phn tch cng vic (Work Breakdown Structure - WBS) c th c s dng
khi c lng.
T c cu phn tch cng vic (v cc loi hng mc), ngi ta c th lp ra mt
danh sch mi hng mc cn c chi ph. C th s dng cc bng lit k m
bo rng tt c cc nhn t (k thut, php l, lp k hoch) u c xem xt. (Cc
bng lit k cng c th gm c cc nhn t nh cc cng on b sung, v d cng
on phun sn).
Nn phn tch chi ph theo b phn cu thnh:
(a) Chi ph trc tip ca mt d n gm c lao ng, nguyn vt liu th v cc
linh kin ph.
(b) Cc chi ph chung ca d n gm c chi ph si m, thp sng, chi ph c
nh v/hoc chi ph bin i.
mt s d n, yu t chnh ca cc hng mc c th l cc chi ph c nh. V d,
cng ty xy dng khng th mua cn trc hon ton mi cho mi ngi nh cng ty
xy dng. i vi cng vic thit k h thng, cng ty c th xy dng mt b cng
370

c thit k ring bit cho cng vic m hnh ha. mt mc no , c th ni
chi ph cho cc hng mc nh th c th bao trm ln tng d n. V d, ph khu
hao ca mt b phn ca cn trc c th c tnh cho mt d n.
Cc biu c lng (estimation forms) c th c thit k da trn c cu phn
tch cng vic. i vi n v cng vic, c cc ct cho nhn cng, nguyn vt liu
Cc nguyn vt liu (materials) i hi c hai loi c lng:
(a) Tng chi ph nguyn vt liu (total materials cost). Cc k s thit k nn
chun b danh sch tm thi cc nguyn vt liu cn cho mi cng vic. B
phn thu mua nn a ra kin v cc chi ph.
(b) Thi gian thc hin n hng nguyn vt liu (lead times of receipt).
Khng nhn c nguyn vt liu th c th gy ra s chm tr khng
mong i.
Cc vn c lng pht sinh do cc nguyn nhn sau:
(a) Cc khon d phng (contingencies). D n c th b chm tr do cc sai
s v thit k, sai st trong sn xut, thiu nguyn vt liu v linh kin. i
khi, ngi ta xy dng mt hn nh cho php. Hn nh cho php i vi
cc s vic bt ng c th c c lng bng cch xem xt cc vn
d n trc .
(b) Cng vic b sung (additional work) c th mi c tm tnh trong hp
ng.
(c) Trt gi (escalation) (tng gi) s lm tng cc chi ph khi ht thi hn hp
ng. iu ny cng c th c cp trong hp ng.
2.5 c lng cc thi im thc hin cng vic

nhiu d n, chi ph nhn cng c th l mt trong cc bin s quan trng nht v
cn s dng ngun nhn cng trong phm vi ngn sch cho php.
Nhiu hot ng trong d n ph thuc ln nhau. Ni cch khc, cng vic B c th
cn c hon thnh trc cng vic C. V d, ngi ta lun khi cng xy dng
mng nh trc khi xy mi.
Nh qun tr d n c th phi ng u vi cc hn ch v ngun cung lao ng.
V d, mt nh qun tr d n my tnh c th phi cnh tranh vi nhng nh qun tr
d n khc thu ht cc chuyn vin c trnh chuyn mn.
Nh qun tr d n cn lp lch trnh cho cc cng vic theo phng php c hiu
qu nht, v:
(a) Mt s cng vic ph thuc vo cc cng vic khc.
(b) Trn thc t, mt s ngun lc s khng sn c thi im ph hp.
Nh qun tr d n cn bit c lng thi gian bao qut. V vy, bn cn bit:
(a) Thi gian cn thit thc hin mi cng vic.
(b) Thi im sm nht (the earliest time) phi bt u vi mi cng vic c th.
(c) Thi im mun nht (the lastest time) phi bt u cng vic.
371

Mt s nh qun tr d n s dng m hnh ton hc c lng thi gian ca mt
cng vic no cho cc mc ch hoch nh d n. C th s dng cng thc da
trn phn phi chun (normal distribution):
to
tm
tp
=
=
=
thi gian thc hin lc quan nht (thi gian ngn nht)
thi gian gn ng nht
thi gian thc hin bi quan nht (thi gian di nht)
t0 + 4tm + tp
Thi gian c lng, te =
6
M hnh ha theo phng php ny khng phi lc no cng thch hp. Nhiu ngi
cho rng phng php ny khng ph hp, v gi nh phn phi chun khng phi
lc no cng ng.
3 PHN TCH D N THEO S MNG
Qun tr d n
Cc phng php hoch

(Planning and
Cc cng c v phng
php qun tr d n
and techniques)
Phn tch d n theo

s mng
Phn mm qun tr d n
(Project management
software)
Cc cng c
hoch nh d n
tools)
3.1 Phn tch s mng

Phn tch s mng (network analysis) l mt phng php lp k hoch v kim
sot d n ln, v d cng trnh xy dng, d n nghin cu v pht trin hoc vi tnh
ha (computerisation) cc h thng kinh doanh. Phn tch s mng gip nh qun
tr lp k hoch khi no th bt u cc cng vic khc nhau, phn b cc ngun lc
c th thc hin cc cng vic theo ng lch trnh, theo di tin thc t v
tm ra khi no cn thc hin hnh ng kim sot nhm ngn chn s chm tr trong
qu trnh hon thnh d n. Cc s kin v hot ng bao trm ton b d n c
biu din di dng mt s hoc biu . i khi, phn tch s mng c
gi l phn tch ng gng (critical path analysis - CPA) hoc phng php ng
gng (critical path method - CPM).
372
NH NGHA
V c bn, phn tch s mng (network analysis) cp n vic trin khai cc ngun lc sn c
nhm hon thnh mt cng vic phc tp.
V s mng: cch biu din cng vic theo mi tn
y l v d v s mng xy dng ng hm Channel, trong ton b d n
c n gin ha thnh ba cng vic.
oh
ng
ray
Xy cc ga cui
Hnh 10.2: S mng ng hm Channel

Cng tc o h c thc hin trc khi thi cng lp t ng ray, v vy vic lp
t ng ray c v ngay sau khu o h nh trong s . Tuy nhin, vic xy
dng cc nh ga Php v Anh c th c thc hin cng lc vi hai cng vic
trn, v th cng vic xy dng cc ga cui c v nm ngang v di theo cc cng
vic khc nh s trn.
Dng s mng ny l s th hin cng vic theo mi tn, c ngha l mi cng
vic trong d n c biu din trn s bng mt ng mi tn (arrowed line).
Mt dng s khc l cng vic ti im nt (activity on node), nhng chng ta s
ch s dng cch biu din cng vic theo mi tn v theo di n gin hn.
Mt d n c phn tch thnh cc cng vic ring r v chui cng vic c
biu din bng mt s mng. Lung cng vic trong s nm t tri sang phi.
ng mi tn biu din mt cng vic trong mt mng. ng ny chy gia s
kin ny v s kin khc. Mt s kin ch n gin l im bt u v/hoc im kt
thc mt cng vic, c biu din trn s mng bng mt hnh trn (c gi l
nt - node).
Chng ta hy gi s rng mt d n no c hai cng vic A v B v khng th bt
u cng vic B cho n khi cng vic A c hon thnh. Cng vic A c th l cng
vic xy dng tng ca mt ngi nh v cng vic B l cng vic lp mi. Cc cng
vic ny c th c biu din nh sau.
373

S kin
Cng vic
S kin
Cng vic
S kin
Theo quy tc, chng ta khng th bt u mt cng vic cho n khi tt c cc cng
vic dn ti im bt u ca s kin c hon thnh.
Thng thng, cc s kin c nh s th t nhn bit c chng. v d
ny, s kin 1 l im bt u ca cng vic A, s kin 3 l im kt thc ca cng
vic B v s kin 2 va l im kt thc ca cng vic A va l im bt u cng
vic B.
By gi, chng ta hy gi s rng d n khc bao gm ba cng vic C, D v E. C
cng vic D v E c th bt u khi cng vic C kt thc, nhng cng vic D v
E c th c thc hin ng thi nu c yu cu. Vic ny s c biu din
nh sau:
3
D
C
2
E
4
s ny, s kin 2 biu din im m cng vic C kt thc v cng l im m

cng vic D v E c th bt u, v vy s ny r rng cho thy cng vic D v E
phi theo sau cng vic C.
Mt kh nng th ba, l cng vic ny khng th bt u cho n khi hai hoc
nhiu cng vic khc hon thnh. Nu cng vic H khng th bt u cho n khi
c cng vic F v G hon thnh th chng ta s biu din trng hp ny nh sau:
1
F
3
G
2
Hnh 10.3: Cc s mng
374
e.g.
V D
S MNG
V s mng cho d n xy dng nh my sau y:

Cng vic
Cng vic trc
A: t mng
B: xy tng
C: lp t ng cng thot nc
D: lp t dy cp in
E: lp khung ca s
F:
lp khung ca ra vo
G:
lp ca s
H:
lp ca ra vo
Cng vic
Cng vic trc
I:
trt va tng bn trong
J:
lp sn
G, H
C
K: lp hc cm in
L:
lp t my mc
I, J, K
BI GII
7
E
F
B
1
10
K
3
BI TP THC HNH 3
(5 PHT)
s mng trn, cng vic E v cng vic H c th c thc hin ng thi

khng?
375
Xc nh cc cng vic
Cc cng vic c th c xc nh nh:
(a) Cng vic A, B, C, D v tng t; hoc
(b) Cng vic 1-2, 2-5, 2-4, 2-3 v tng t.
Cc cng vic o (dummy activities)

Trong phn tch s mng, c quy tc rng khng c v hai cng vic gia cng
mt s kin. Quy tc ny khin cho cc s r rng hn.
trnh c hai cng vic chy gia cng mt s kin, chng ta s dng mt cng
vic o. Cng vic o khng tn thi gian v ngun lc hon thnh.
NH NGHA
Cng vic o (dummy activity) c s dng trong phn tch s mng khi hai cng vic c th
bt u cng mt lc v cng kt thc cng mt lc. Cng vic ny c biu din bng ng mi
tn t on.
V d, gi s chui cng vic trong d n lp t mt h thng my tnh nh sau:
Cng vic
Cng vic trc
A:
lp t my tnh
B:
vit chng trnh
C:
thu nhn vin c o to
D:
th nghim h thng
B,C
Theo l thuyt, chng ta c th v s mng ny nh sau:

B
1
Theo quy tc, iu ny c th khng chnh xc. Hai cng vic ring r khng c
bt u v kt thc vi cng mt s kin. Cch biu din chnh xc c trnh by
di y:
3
B
1
i khi chng ta cn s dng cng vic o khng ch tun theo quy tc, m cn
duy tr lgic c bn ca s mng.
Hy xem xt v d sau v mt d n thit lp h thng in thoi vn phng mi.
376

Cng vic
Cng vic trc
A:
mua thit b
B:
nh s in thoi
C:
lp t tng i in thoi
D:
lp t ng dy in thoi
E:
in danh b in thoi vn phng
B,C
B
D n kt thc khi c cng vic D v E hon thnh.

Vn pht sinh v cng vic D ch c th bt u khi c cng vic B v C hon thnh;
tri li, cng vic E ch cn i theo cng vic B. Cch duy nht v s mng ny
l s dng mt cng vic o.
2
3
D
1
E
Cc ng trong s mng
Bt k s mng no cng c th phn tch thnh mt s ng (path) hoc tuyn
ng (route) khc nhau. ng ch n gin l mt chui cng vic t im bt u
n im kt thc ca s mng. v d trn, ch c ba ng:
(a) A C D;
(b) B D o;
(c) B E.
BI TP THC HNH 4
(5 PHT)
Lit k danh sch cc ng trong s mng v d xy dng nh my vi cc

cng vic t A n L trc .
3.2 ng gng, cc thi im xy ra s kin v thi

gian d tr
NH NGHA
ng gng (critical path) l ng i qua s mng vi tng thi gian thc hin di nht.
377

Thi gian cn c hon thnh mi cng vic ring l trong mt d n phi c c
lng. Thi gian ny c ch ra trn s mng trn hoc di mi tn biu din
cng vic. Thi gian thc hin ton b d n s c quyt nh bi thi gian cn
thit hon thnh ng i qua s mng vi tng thi gian thc hin di nht.
ng ny c gi l ng gng (critical path) v cng vic nm trn ng ny
c gi l cng vic gng (critical activity). Mt s mng c th c nhiu hn mt
ng gng, nu nhiu ng cng cho kt qu thi gian thc hin di nht.
Cc cng vic trn ng gng phi c bt u v kt thc ng lc, nu khng
tng thi gian thc hin d n s b ko di. Phng php tm ng gng ny c
minh ha trong v d di y.
e.g.
V D
NG GNG
Cc cng vic sau y thuc v mt d n nng cp chung c:

Cng vic
Cng vic trc
Thi gian thc hin (tun)
B: mc li dy in
C: trt li tng phng khch
D: lp bng n phng khch
E: trang tr phng ng
F: lp h thng ng nc
G: trang tr phng khch
A: thay th ca s phng khch
C, D
H: trang tr phng bp
I: trang tr phng tm
(a) C nhng ng no trong s mng?

(b) ng gng l ng no v thi gian thc hin ca n?
BI GII
Bc gii u tin l v s mng vi thi gian thc hin mi cng vic cho.
Mt s mng ch nn c mt nt bt u (start node) v mt nt kt thc (completion
node). Trong s bn di, yu cu ny tha mn bng cch a thm mt cng
vic o sau cng vic I. Cc cng vic o lun c thi gian thc hin bng 0.
378
2
A
1
D
G
4
E
5
3
5
1
H
F
5
I
2
Chng ta c th lit k cc ng trong s mng ny v thi gian thc hin ca

chng nh sau:
ng
Thi gian thc hin (tun)
ACG
(5 + 2 + 4)
11
BDG
(4 + 1 + 4)
BE
(4 + 5)
BFH
(4 + 5 + 3)
12
B F I o
(4 + 5 +2 + 0)
11
ng gng l ng di nht, BFH, vi thi gian thc hin l 12 tun. y l thi

gian ti thiu cn hon thnh d n ny. Lu rng mt s mng c th c
nhiu hn mt ng gng, nu hai hoc nhiu ng c thi gian thc hin di
nht bng nhau.
BI TP THC HNH 5
(10 PHT)
Cc cng vic sau lin quan ti d n nh gi cho mnh t s c mua p

ng nhu cu pht trin kinh doanh ca mt cng ty.
Cng vic
Cng vic
trc
Thi gian
thc hin
(ngy)
P: tin hnh iu tra kho st

Q: lp cc k hoch
R: c lng chi ph xy dng cng trnh
S: thu ngi gim st cng vic chun b mt bng
R, S
T: thng lng gi c
D n ny c th c hon thnh trong bao nhiu ngy?
379

Lit k cc ng trong s mng theo cch trn kh d dng vi cc s mng
nh, nhng li kh kh i vi cc s mng ln v phc tp.
Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht v thi im xy ra s kin mun nht

Mt cch khc tm ra ng gng l tnh c thi im sm nht v thi im mun
nht cho mi s kin ri biu din chng trn s mng.
(a) Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht (earliest event time) l thi im sm
nht m bt k cng vic tip theo no cng c th bt u.
(b) Thi im xy ra s kin mun nht (latest event time) l thi im mun
nht m tt c cc cng vic trc phi kt thc, nu mun ton b d n
hon thnh trong thi gian ti thiu.
Mt cch ch ra cc thi im xy ra s kin mun nht l phn chia mi nt s kin
thnh ba phn. Nhng phn ny s ghi:
(a) S hiu ca s kin.
(b) Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht. Vi nt bt u trong s mng ny,
thi im xy ra s kin sm nht l 0.
(c) Thi im xy ra s kin mun nht.
Thi im xy ra
s kin sm nht
S hiu
ca s kin
Thi im xy ra s
kin mun nht
Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht

Bc tip theo l tnh ton thi im xy ra s kin sm nht. Lun lun bt u
s kin 1 vi thi im xy ra s kin sm nht l 0. Chng ta s tip tc v d trc
ch ra cch tnh ton cc thi im.
Duyt cc cng vic t tri sang phi qua s s tnh ton thi im sm nht m
cng vic tip theo s kin c th bt u. V d, thi im xy ra s kin sm nht
s kin 2 l thi im sm nht m cng vic C c th bt u. Thi im ny l
tun 0 + 5 = 5. Tng t, thi im xy ra s kin sm nht s kin 3 l thi im
sm nht m cng vic D, E v F c th bt u, l thi im 0 + 4 = tun 4, v
thi im sm nht s kin 5 l thi im sm nht m cng vic H v I c th bt
u, l thi im 4 + 5 = tun 9.
Mt vn nh xy ra khi c hn mt cng vic kt thc cng mt nt. V d, s
kin 4 l nt kt thc cho cng vic C v D. Cng vic G khng th bt u cho n
khi c cng vic C v D kt thc, do thi im xy ra s kin sm nht s kin
4 l thi im sau:
(a) Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht, s kin 2 + thi gian thc hin ca cng
vic C = 5 + 2 = 7 tun;
(b) Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht, s kin 3 + thi gian thc hin ca cng
vic D = 4 + 1 = 5 tun;
380

Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht s kin 4 l 7 tun.
Tng t, thi im xy ra s kin sm nht s kin 7 l thi im cao nht trong:
Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht, s kin 3 + thi gian thc hin ca cng vic E
=4+5=9
Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht, s kin 4 + thi gian thc hin ca cng vic G
= 7 + 4 = 11
Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht, s kin 5 + thi gian thc hin ca cng vic H
= 9 + 3 = 12
Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht, s kin 6 + thi gian thc hin ca cng vic o
= 11 + 0 = 11
Gi tr cao nht l 12 tun. iu ny c ngha l thi gian hon thnh ton b d n
ti thiu l 12 tun.
C
2
A
5
B
4
3
G
4
7
1
E
5
4
F
5
5
H
3
0
9
I
2
6
BI TP THC HNH 6
12
11
(5 PHT)
Nu vic thc hin cng vic C mt 4 tun, th cc thi im xy ra s kin sm nht

no s b nh hng v chng s thay i ti mc no?
Thi im xy ra s kin mun nht

Bc tip theo l tnh ton cc thi im xy ra s kin mun nht. Cc thi im
ny l cc thi im mun nht m mi s kin c th xy ra, nu ton b d n
c hon thnh trong thi gian ngn nht c th l 12 tun. Thi im xy ra s
kin mun nht s kin cui cng phi ging nh thi im xy ra s kin trc
, m v d ny l 12 tun.
Duyt cc cng vic t phi sang tri qua s tnh ton thi im mun nht m
mi cng vic c th bt u, nu cng vic kt thc vo thi im xy ra s kin
mun nht ca s kin im kt thc ca n.
381

Thi im xy ra s kin mun nht i vi:
(a) S kin 4 l 12 4 = tun 8.
(b) S kin 6 l 12 0 = tun 12.
(c) S kin 2 l 8 2 = tun 6.
S kin 5 c th gy ra kh khn v hai cng vic H v I u dn v n.
(a) Cng vic H phi c kt thc vo tun 12, do phi bt u vo tun 9.
(b) Cng vic I cng phi c kt thc vo tun 12, do phi bt u vo
tun 10.
Thi im xy ra s kin mun nht nt 5 l tun sm hn (theo tun t thi gian)
ca tun 9 v tun 10, l tun 9 . Tt c cc cng vic dn n nt 5 m trong
trng hp ny ch c cng vic F, phi c kt thc vo tun 9 c cng vic H
v I c th c kt thc vo tun 12.
Thi im xy ra s kin mun nht s kin 3 c tnh ton theo cng mt cch.
l thi im sm nht gip cho tt c cc cng vic tip theo c hon thnh
trong phm vi thi gian yu cu. V th, s kin 3, chng ta c cc thi im sau:
S kin
tip theo
Thi im
mun nht ca
s kin
Cng vic
trung gian
(a)
Thi gian thc

hin cng vic
(b)
Thi im xy ra s
kin yu cu s
kin 3
(a) (b)
12
Tt c cc cng vic trc s kin 3 phi c kt thc vo tun 4, mi cng vic

tip theo kt thc trong phm vi thi gian yu cu.
Tng t, thi im xy ra s kin mun nht s kin 1 l thi im thp hn
trong:
Thi im xy ra s kin mun nht, s kin 2 tr i thi gian thc hin ca cng
vic A = 6 5 = 1.
Thi im xy ra s kin mun nht, s kin 3 tr i thi gian thc hin ca cng
vic B = 4 4 = 0.
Do , thi im xy ra s kin mun nht s kin 1 l 0. N phi lun l 0. Nu
cc tnh ton ca bn cho bt k gi tr no khc, tc l bn tnh sai.
By gi, s mng cui cng nh di y. ng gng c k hiu bng
mt ng kp (double line).
382
5
6
C
2
7
8
5
1
0
0
7
E
5
B
4
3
4
4
12
12
H
3
5
5
9
9
I
2
6
11
12
Tm ng gng
Cng vic gng l cng vic phi c bt u ng thi im, nu khng tng thi
gian thc hin d n s b tng ln. Theo quy tc, mi s kin trn ng gng c
cc thi im sm nht v mun nht trng nhau. Do , ng gng trong s
mng trn l B F H (cc s kin 1, 3, 5, 7). S kin vi thi im sm nht v mun
nht trng nhau c gi l s kin gng (critical event).
BI TP THC HNH 7
(10 PHT)
Cc cng vic sau y thuc v mt d n lm phim:

Cng vic
trc
Thi gian thc

hin (tun)
J : thng lng vic phn phi
K : chun b/thu xp vic qung b
L : vit kch bn
M : thu din vin v on quay phim
Cng vic
N : quay v bin tp
M, Q
P : thit k trng quay
Q : dng trng quay
Thi im sm nht v mun nht ca s kin im kt thc ca cng vic P

l g?
383

Bn c th thy rng mt cng vic kt ni hai s kin, m mi s kin li c cc thi
im xy ra s kin sm nht v mun nht trng nhau, nhng bn thn cng vic
li khng phi l cng vic gng.
V d, theo phn trch sau y t v d c tiu l ng gng, s kin 3 v 7
nm trn ng gng.
3
4
4
E
5
F
5
H
5
12
12
9
9
Tuy nhin, cng vic E khng phi l cng vic gng: ng gng i qua s kin 5.
Nu nghi ng v vic liu mt cng vic c nm trn ng gng hay khng, th bn
nn kim tra xem cng vic c bt k thi gian d tr no khng (xem hnh bn
di). Tt c cc cng vic gng u khng c thi gian d tr.
Thi gian d tr (float)

Cc cng vic khng nm trn ng gng khng phi l cc cng vic gng, do
chng c th trong mt chng mc no :
(a) Bt u mun, v/hoc.
(b) Din ra lu hn thi gian nh.
m vn m bo thi gian hon thnh d n tng th.
Thi gian d tr cho bt k cng vic no l lng thi gian thc hin cng vic c
th c ko di n im m cng vic s tr thnh cng vic gng. Thi gian
d tr ny cng chnh l lng thi gian thc hin ca cng vic c th c ko di
thm, m khng lm nh hng n tng thi gian thc hin d n.
nh hng ln thi gian ca cc cng vic trc v sau c b qua. Do , tng
thi gian d tr cho mt cng vic bng thi im kt thc mun nht tr i thi im
bt u sm nht tr i thi gian thc hin ca n.
V d, bn hy xem cng vic C trong v d nng cp chung c trn. Cng vic ny
phi c hon thnh vo tun 8, nu tng thi gian thc hin d n khng b ko
di v cng khng th c bt u cho n tun 5 vo thi im sm nht, nhng
v vic thc hin cng vic ny ch mt c 2 tun nn vn d 1 tun. Thi gian d tr
cho cng vic C l (8 5 2) = 1 tun.
BI TP THC HNH 8
Trong v d trn, cng vic D v G c thi gian d tr l bao nhiu?
384
(5 PHT)
3.3 Rt ngn cng vic

Vi mt s d n khng b rng buc cht v chi ph, c th ct gim tng thi gian
thc hin d n bng vic phn b thm nhn cng hoc thit b cho cc cng vic
khc nhau.
ng gng l ng nt c chai (bottleneck route). Cn tm ra phng php rt
ngn cc cng vic dc theo ng gng, th tng thi gian thc hin d n mi
c gim xung.
(a) Thi gian cn c thc hin cc cng vic cha ti hn (non-critical
jobs) khng lin quan ti tng thi gian thc hin d n.
(b) iu ny c ngha l vic tn chi ph nhm rt ngn (crashing) thi gian
thc hin cc cng vic cha ti hn hon thnh chng nhanh hn l mt
s lng ph khng cn thit. Tuy nhin, vic ny rt d xy ra trn thc t.
(c) Tuy nhin, nu tm thy mt s bin php gim thi gian cn hon thnh
cc cng vic dc theo ng gng, th khng ch tng thi gian thc
hin d n s c rt ngn m chnh ng gng cng c th
thay i v mt s cng vic cha ti hn gi y c th tr thnh cc
cng vic gng.
Phn tch s mng c th c s dng tnh ton thi gian hon thnh ti
thiu i vi mt d n c th rt ngn. Sau , chng ta c th nh gi xem chi
ph rt ngn thi gian thc hin cng vic c tng xng vi cc li ch ph tri hay
khng, bt k cc li ch ny l g.
e.g.
V D
RT NGN THI GIAN
Cng ty TNHH Digitalis ang ln k hoch ng ca l luyn bo dng. Vic

ng ca ny c su giai on; cc thi im v chi ph chun c c lng
nh sau:
Giai on
Giai on trc
S ngy thc
hin chun
8.000
6.000
Giai on B
10.000
4.000
Giai on A, C, D
1.000
Giai on E
16.000
Tng chi ph trc tip ca giai

on theo thi gian chun
GBP
45.000
S mng cho vic ng ca ca cng ty c th nh di y (c th c mt s
thay i trong b cc).
385
2
D
1
4
8
0
0
0
A
8
4
3
4
6
8
8
E
3
Ch thch:
S hiu ca
s kin
11
11
F
3
14
14
Thi im xy ra
s kin sm nht
Thi im xy ra
s kin mun nht
Lu : Cng vic o c a vo s khi c cng vic A v D u c th bt u

thi im 0 v cng vic E khng th bt u cho n khi c cng vic A v D c
hon thnh.
Gi s k s trng xut rng tng thi gian thc hin d n c th rt ngn
bng cch a nhiu ngun lc hn na vo mi giai on ca d n. Vic ny
s lm tng cc chi ph trc tip ca chng trnh bo dng, nhng vi mi ngy
c tit kim trong tng thi gian thc hin d n, thit hi do nh tr sn xut
s c gim bt. iu ny lun xy ra bt c khi no ng ca l t. Tn tht
ca cng vic kinh doanh do ng ca nh my c Gim c Bn hng c
tnh l 5.000 GBP/ngy, tnh theo mc ng gp vo li nhun ca 1 ngy lm vic.
Thi gian v chi ph rt ngn nh sau.
Giai
on
S ngy thc
hin chun
S ngy ti thiu cn c trong Chi ph trc tip ph tri cho

chng trnh rt ngn
mt ngy c rt ngn
GBP
3.000
1.000
4.000
1.000
2.000
6.000
Thi gian thc hin d n ti thiu l g? V chi ph ca n l bao nhiu?

Thi gian thc hin d n ti u l g?
BI GII
Thi gian thc hin ti thiu (minimum duration). Bc u tin trong tnh ton
thi gian thc hin ti thiu v chi ph ca n l rt ngn mi cng vic xung mc
thi gian ti thiu. Vic ny c biu din trong s nh sau:
386
2
4
2
D
1
0
0
A
4
3
3
3
3
4
4
E
2
6
6
F
1
7
7
Thi gian chun cho cng vic D l 4 ngy, v cn chi ph l 1.000 GBP/ngy rt
ngn thi gian thc hin. Trong s mng thi gian ti thiu, chng ta rt ngn
thi gian thc hin ca cng vic D xung 2 ngy, t 4 ngy xung 2 ngy, vi mc
chi ph 2.000 GBP th ch to ra thi gian d tr l 2 ngy. Vic rt ngn ny s l
lng ph, do khng nn lm. Cng vic D nn c thc hin thi gian chun
l 4 ngy.
Chi ph ng ca theo thi gian ti thiu s nh sau:
Cng
vic
Ngy thc
hin
Chi ph
c bn
GBP
Chi ph ph tri cho

vic rt ngn thi
gian thc hin
GBP
Tng
chi ph
GBP
(ti thiu)
8.000
12.000
20.000
(ti thiu)
6.000
1.000
7.000
(ti thiu)
10.000
4.000
14.000
(chun)
4.000
4.000
(ti thiu)
1.000
2.000
3.000
(ti thiu)
16.000
12.000
28.000
45.000
31.000
76.000
Bn cn nh rng khi thi gian thc hin d n c rt ngn, th thi gian d tr

nn c ct gim cng nhiu cng tt tit kim chi ph cho vic rt ngn khng
cn thit i vi cc cng vic cha ti hn. (Khi khng c li ch g th chi ph cho
vic rt ngn cc cng vic cha ti hn nh th l khng hp l.)
Thi gian ng ca ti u (the optimal shutdown time)

Thi gian thc hin d n ti thiu trong v d cho trn l 7 ngy so vi mc thi
gian chun l 14 ngy. Li nhun t vic rt ngn tng thi gian thc hin d n c
th c o lng theo mc ng gp b sung 5.000 GBP/ngy thu c, nu l t
c m ca v hot ng.
Vy, phi tn bao nhiu rt ngn thi gian ng ca v chi ph ph tri (extra cost)
c hp l vi mc li nhun 5.000 GBP/ngy tit kim c?
C hai phng php quyt nh thi gian ti u:
(a) Xt tng ngy mt bit vic rt ngn thi gian thc hin d n c ng
hay khng.
387

(b) Trc tin, tnh ton thi gian thc hin d n ti thiu, sau xem xt bt k
mc tng thi gian trn mc ti thiu s tit kim nhiu chi ph hn li nhun
thu c t vic rt ngn thi gian hay khng.
Trong phn gii sau, phng php (b) c s dng.
Rt ngn thi gian thc hin d n t 14 xung 7 ngy c th tit kim c 7 ngy,
do s thu c mc ng gp b sung l 35.000 GBP so vi mc 5.000 GBP/
ngy. Chi ph ph tri ca vic rt ngn thi gian ng ca xung 7 ngy l 31.000
GBP, v th vic ng ca l t ch trong 7 ngy hn l trong 14 ngy s nng li
nhun ln 4.000 GBP.
Nhng 7 ngy c phi l thi gian ng ca ti u khng? S c li hn khi ng ca
8, 9, 10, 11, 12 hoc 13 ngy thay v 7 ngy khng?
By gi, chng ta s tng thi gian ti thiu l 7 ngy ln lt ln mt ngy, ng
thi tm ra s tin tit kim chi ph v li nhun b ph do tng thi gian ng ca.
(a) ng ca 8 ngy (eight-day shutdown). Bt u t thi gian ng ca ti
thiu l 7 ngy, ng ca 8 ngy c ngha l chng ta c th lm mt trong
cc cch sau:
S tin tit
kim c
GBP
(i)
Thm 1 ngy vo thi gian thc hin

cng vic A v thm 1 ngy vo thi
gian thc hin cng vic B
(3.000 + 1.000)
4.000
(ii) Thm 1 ngy vo thi gian thc hin

cng vic A v thm 1 ngy vo thi
gian thc hin cng vic C
(3.000 + 4.000)
7.000
(iii) Thm 1 ngy vo thi gian thc hin

cng vic E
2.000
(iv) Thm 1 ngy vo thi gian thc hin

cng vic F
6.000
Tt nht l tit kim 1 ngy thc hin cng vic A (tng thi gian thc hin
n 5 ngy) v tit kim 1 ngy thc hin cng vic C - tng thi gian thc
hin cng vic C n 2 ngy chun. S tin tit kim chi ph s l 7.000
GBP, vt mc ng gp thu c t vic rt ngn thi gian thc hin d
n xung 7 ngy (5.000 GBP). Do , ng ca 8 ngy s lm tng li nhun
ln 2.000 GBP so vi vic ng ca 7 ngy.
(b) ng ca 9 ngy (nine-day shutdown). Cng vic C gi ang mc thi
gian chun, v th phng n la chn ng ca 9 ngy thay v ng ca 8
ngy s nh sau:
S tin tit kim
c GBP
(i)
388
Thm 1 ngy vo thi gian thc hin cng vic A

v thm 1 ngy vo thi gian thc hin cng vic B
4.000
(ii) Thm 1 ngy vo thi gian thc hin cng vic E
2.000
(iii) Thm 1 ngy vo thi gian thc hin cng vic F
6.000

Vic thm thi gian hon thnh cng vic F tit kim c 6.000 GBP rt
ng lm, v vic ny s lm tng mc ng gp 5.000 GBP/ngy t thi gian
ng ca ngn hn.
V th, ng ca 9 ngy mang li nhiu li nhun hn l ng ca 8 ngy vi
mc tng li nhun l 1.000 GBP. Cng vic F by gi s thc hin trong 2 ngy.
(c) ng ca 10 ngy (10-day shutdown). Vi cng l do nh th, ng ca
10 ngy s mang li nhiu li nhun hn ng ca 9 ngy vi mc tng l
1.000 GBP. Lc ny, cng vic F s c thi gian thc hin chun l 3 ngy.
(d) ng ca 11 ngy (11-day shutdown). Quay li bng trong mc (b), bn
s thy rng ko di thi gian ng ca lu hn 10 ngy s lm gim mc
ng gp v li nhun, v s tin tit kim c t vic thm 1 ngy vo thi
gian thc hin cng vic A v B s t hn nhiu so vi mc ng gp b ph
l 5.000 GBP/ngy.
By gi, chng ta t c gii php ti u l ng ca 10 ngy.
Cng vic
Thi gian thc hin
Chi ph
Ngy
GBP
(8.000 + 9.000)
17.000
(6.000 + 1.000)
7.000
10.000
4.000
(1.000 + 2.000)
GBP
3.000
16.000
57.000
Tng thi gian ng ca: 10 ngy

Tit kim thi gian so vi vic ng ca theo thi gian chun: 4 ngy
Mc ng gp tit kim c, 5.000 GBP/ngy
Chi ph thc cho vic ng ca so vi vic ng ca theo thi gian chun
20.000
37.000
iu ny cho thy s tin tit kim thc 8.000 GBP trn cc chi ph trc tip cho vic
ng ca theo thi gian chun l 45.000 GBP.
2
D
1
4
5
0
0
0
A
5
5
5
E
2
7
7
F
3
10
10
3
3
3
3
Thi gian thc hin d n l 10 ngy, do ch c cng vic D s c thi gian d tr

(1 ngy).
389
3.4 Thi gian thc hin cng vic hay thay i

Cc vn v s mng c th phc tp hn bi s thay i trong thi gian
thc hin ca tng cng vic. V d, vic xy dng c th b chm tr do thi
tit xu.
NH NGHA
Phng php nh gi v tng kt d n (Project Evaluation and Review Technique - PERT)
l mt dng phn tch s mng c xt ti s khng chc chn.
S dng phng php nh gi v tng kt d n PERT, chng ta c th a ra cc
c lng lc quan, gn ng nht v bi quan v thi gian thc hin cho mi cng
vic trong d n. Nhng c lng ny c chuyn thnh thi gian thc hin trung
bnh (mean duration) v phng sai (variance), thng qua cc cng thc sau:
(a) Trung bnh =
a + 4m + b
Trong :

6
a
= c lng thi gian thc hin cng vic lc quan
m = c lng thi gian thc hin cng vic gn ng nht
b = c lng thi gian thc hin cng vic bi quan
(b) Phng sai 2 =
(b a)2
36
1
lch chun, = (b a)
6
Ngay khi thi gian thc hin trung bnh v lch chun (standard deviation) ca thi
gian thc hin cho mi cng vic c tnh ton, chng ta c th tm ng gng
bng cch s dng thi gian thc hin cng vic trung bnh.
e.g.
V D
PHNG PHP NH GI V TNG KT D N PERT
Mt d n gm c 4 cng vic.
Cng vic Cng vic trc
390
Thi gian
lc quan
(a)
Ngy
Thi gian hon thnh

gn ng nht
(m)
Ngy
Thi gian bi
quan
(b)
10
15
16
18
26
15
20
31
18
28

Yu cu
S dng phng php nh gi v tng kt d n PERT phn tch d n.
BI GII
Thi gian thc hin trung bnh cho mi cng vic c tnh bng cng thc
Cng vic
a + 4m + b
Chia cho 6
Ngy
5 + 40 + 15 = 60
10
16 + 72 + 26 = 114
19
15 + 80 + 31 = 126
21
8 + 72 + 28 = 108
18
a + 4m + b
6
lch chun ca thi gian thc hin mi cng vic c tnh bng cng thc
Cng vic
ba
Chia cho 6
Ngy
15 5 = 10
1,67
26 16 = 10
1,67
31 15 = 16
2,67
28 8 = 20
3,33
ba
6
S mng ny c th c v bng cch s dng thi gian thc hin trung bnh.
10
10
A
B
10
0
0
19
C
21
18
29
29
0
18
29
Chng ta cng phng sai ca cc cng vic hay thay i trn mt ng. Chng
ta c th lm vic ny min l thi gian thc hin cc cng vic c lp vi nhau.
Phng sai ca thi gian thc hin cng vic A = 1,672
Phng sai ca thi gian thc hin cng vic B = 1,672
Phng sai kt hp ca ng AB
2,78
2,78
5,56
lch chun ca thi gian thc hin ca ng AB l 5,56 = 2,36 ngy.
391
3.5 Cc nh gi v ng gng/phn tch s mng

Tuy l phng php h tr v gi i vi vic hoch nh v lp lch trnh, nhng
phng php ng gng cng c nhng nhc im nht nh.
(a) Khng phi lc no cng c th lp ra mt c cu phn tch cng vic WBS
c hiu qu cho mt d n.
(b) Phng php ny gi nh c mt mi lin h tuyn tnh v tun t lin tc
gia cc cng vic: hay ni cch khc, phng php ny gi nh rng ngay
khi cng vic A c hon thnh, cng vic B s tip tc, do cng vic B
khng gy nh hng g n cng vic A. V vy, phng php ny khng
gii quyt c cc trng hp c s phn hi (feedback) hoc tng tc
(ni cch khc, kt qu ca mt cng vic sau ny trong chui cng vic c
th lin quan n cng vic trc ). Mi quan h tng tc gia cc cng
vic c th phc tp hn mi lin h tuyn tnh n gin. Phng php ny
c th p dng cho cc d n nghin cu c kt thc m, kt qu ca
cng vic sau ny c th gi gii php iu chnh cho cng vic b sung.
(c) C mt s vn khng th trnh khi trong vic c lng. Khi d n hon
ton mi th qu trnh hoch nh c th c tin hnh trong tnh trng thiu
hiu bit v cc nhn t nh hng n d n.
(d) Mt vn trong vic s dng phn tch s mng nh mt phng php
tnh chi ph l: cc chi ph ch da trn gi lao ng v mi vn lin
quan n vic tiu tn thi gian cho cc hot ng gin tip s pht sinh. Gi
lao ng c th ch l mt phn nh trong chi ph ca d n.
(e) Mc d phng php phn tch s mng lp k hoch vic s dng cc
ngun lc v lao ng v ti chnh, nhng n khng xy dng c k hoch
cho cc s kin bt ng ngoi vic rt ngn thi gian. Thc cht y khng
phi l mt nh gi ph bnh v phn tch s mng, m chnh xc hn
mt du hiu cho thy nh qun tr d n phi ch trng n vic hoch nh
hn l lp lch trnh. V d, nh qun tr c th c ngun h tr my tnh bt
ng v trnh c s ngng tr ca h thng thng tin.
392
4 CC CNG C HOCH NH D N
Qun tr d n
Cc phng php hoch

(Planning and
Cc cng c v phng
php qun tr d n
and techniques)
Phn tch d n theo

s mng
Phn mm qun tr d n
(Project management
software)
Cc cng c
hoch nh d n
tools)
4.1 Biu Gantt

K hoch n gin cho mt d n c th c lp trn biu thanh ngang (bar
line chart). Biu ny i khi c gi l biu Gantt (Gantt chart), l mt biu
dng thanh c dng lp thang thi gian (time scale) cho d n v c
lng s lng cc ngun lc (resources) cn c. Ngi ta s dng hai ng
thng biu din thi gian phn b cho mi cng vic v thi gian thc t cc cng
vic cn.
Biu Gantt n gin, minh ha mt s cng vic lin quan trong d n lp t my
ch mng nh sau:
Hnh 10.4: Biu Gantt

393

Loi biu ny c u im l rt d hiu. N cng c th c s dng nh mt
biu kim sot tin (progress control chart) vi phn thp hn ca mi thanh
c hon thnh khi cng vic c m nhn.
Biu ny cho thy cui tun th mi, cng vic 9 ang thc hin chm so vi
lch trnh. C th phi phn b nhiu ngun lc hn cho cng vic ny, v kp thi b
tr ch lm vic v ngh ngi cho nhn vin l iu kin cn thit chuyn i sang
h thng mi.
Cng vic 4 khng c hon thnh ng hn, dn n tnh trng chm tr i vi
vic lp t my tnh (cng vic 6). iu ny cng c ngha l vic bt u cng vic
7 v 8 cng s b chm tr hn na.
Biu Gantt khng ch ra c mi quan h qua li gia cc cng vic khc nhau
trong d n mt cch r rng nh s mng. Thng thng, ngi ta kt hp biu
Gantt v phn tch s mng hoch nh d n v phn b ngun lc.
e.g.
V D
BIU GANTT
Cng ty TNHH Flotto s m nhn mt d n vi cc d liu lin quan nh sau.

Cng vic phi c thc
Cng vic
hin trc
Thi gian thc hin
S ngi cn cho
cng vic
Ngy
A
C, E
C mt lc lng lao ng gm 9 ngi; mi ngi c tr mt khon tin cng c

nh bt k ngi c lm vic tch cc vo bt k ngy no hay khng. Mi ngi
u c kh nng lm bt k cng vic no trong by cng vic ny. Nu cn thm
lao ng trong bt k ngy no th c th thu nhng ngi ny trn c s thu theo
ngy vi mc tin cng 120 GBP/ngy. Nu d n ny hon thnh trong thi gian ti
thiu, th cng ty phi tr thm bao nhiu tin cho lao ng thu?
BI GII
V s mng thit lp thi gian thc hin d n v ng gng. Sau , v mt
biu Gantt, dng ng gng lm c s, gi s rng cc cng vic bt u vo
thi im sm nht c th. Thi gian d tr trn chui cng vic nn c biu din
bng ng thng t on.
394
0
0
A
3
F
3
B
5
5
7
C
2
9
9
G
3
10
11
B
3
12
12
12
C
4
D
4
Lao ng
cn c
4
9
Ngy
D
1
3
3
F
6
AB
EBD
EBF
ECF
12
14
15
C th thy rng, nu tt c cng vic bt u vo thi im sm nht, th s cn

nhiu nht l 15 ngi vo mt ngy bt k (ngy 6 - 7); trong khi vo nhng ngy
khc s c lao ng nhn ri (ngy 7 - 12). Vn ny c th c hn ch hoc loi
b bng cch s dng ht thi gian d tr trn mi cng vic cha ti hn. Gi s
rng chng ta tr hon vic bt u cng vic D v F cho n ngy sm nht c th.
y s l im kt thc ca ngy 8 hoc im bt u ca ngy 9 - cn li 4 ngy
hon thnh cc cng vic vo cui ngy 12.
Biu Gantt s c v li nh sau:
Ngy
10
11
B
3
Lao ng
cn c
12
C
4
D
4
F
6
AB
EB
EC
ED
GF
D n ny c th c hon thnh trong thi gian ti thiu m khng cn thu thm

bt k lao ng no.
395
BI TP THC HNH 9
(40 PHT)
Cng ty Thurnon s khi ng d n nghin cu tnh kh thi ca mt sn phm mi.

Kt qu cui cng ca d n nghin cu tnh kh thi ny s l mt bo co xut
cc hnh ng cn thc hin cho sn phm mi. Cc cng vic c thc hin
hon thnh d n nghin cu tnh kh thi ny nh sau:
Cng vic
M t cng vic
Cc cng
vic trc
trung gian
Thi gian S nhn

d kin vin cn
Tun
A:
thit k s b
B:
nghin cu th trng
C:
thu thp bo gi cng ngh
D:
xy dng hng mu
E:
chun b ti liu marketing
F:
tnh ton chi ph
G:
th nghim sn phm
H:
kho st th im
B, E
I:
c lng nh gi
J:
bo co cui cng
F, G, I
(a) V mt s mng biu din k hoch cc cng vic ra trn. Xc nh

ng gng v thi gian thc hin d n ngn nht.
(b) Gi s d n bt u vo thi im 0 v mi cng vic bt u vo ngy bt u
sm nht, bn hy dng mt biu biu din s nhn vin cn mt thi im
bt k cho d n ny.
4.2 Biu ngun lc

NH NGHA
Biu ngun lc (resource histogram) th hin tng quan d liu d n, trong cc yu cu, vic
s dng v s sn c ngun lc c biu din cho tng thi gian c th.
Biu ny l mt biu ct chng (stacked bar chart) biu din s lng v tp
hp nhn vin trong thi gian thc hin d n, c s dng lp k hoch v kim
sot yu cu ngun nhn lc ca d n.
Nu chng ta mun bit cn bao nhiu nhn vin thc hin mi cng vic trong d n
v h cn c nhng k nng g th cc thng tin ny s c a vo biu Gantt
v c s dng lp biu ngun lc.
Biu ngun lc n gin biu din tng s gi lm vic ca lp trnh vin cn cho
chng trnh pht trin phn mm c trnh by di y:
396

Thi gian lp trnh vin cn
Tng s gi
300
lm vic ca
lp trnh vin 275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
16
23
Thng 1
30
13 20
Thng 2
27
13
20
27
Thng 3
10
17
Thng 4
24
15 22
Thng 5
Kt thc tun
Hnh 10.5: Biu ngun lc

i vi mt d n n gin nh d n ny, biu ngun lc dng nh cho thy rt
t thng tin. Tuy nhin, i vi d n phc tp hn, biu ny l mt cng c hoch
nh nhn lc hu ch. Nh qun tr d n c th s dng mt biu ngun lc
quyt nh v nhng vic nh lp tin cho cc cng vic cha ti hn.
Trong trng hp t chc m nhn mt lot d n, mi d n li c cc yu cu
phc tp khc nhau v ngun lc, th cc biu d n c th c hp nht thnh
mt biu chung cho ton b t chc . Biu ny s h tr vic a ra cc
quyt nh v vic tuyn dng, o to li v ct gim nhn cng.
4.3 Xy dng k hoch

Bn s khi ng mt d n nghin cu tnh kh thi ca vic xy dng siu th mi.
Kt qu cui cng ca d n nghin cu tnh kh thi s l mt bn bo co ngh
cc cng vic cn thc hin cho siu th ny. Cc cng vic c nu di y:
397
Cng
vic
Thi gian
S nhn
d kin
vin cn
(tun)
Cng vic
tin quyt
M t cng vic
Thit k s b
Nghin cu nguyn vt liu
Nhn bo gi vt t
Lp cc k hoch
Nghin cu th trng
D ton chi ph
Nhn giy php
Thit k chi tit v hon thin
B, E
D ton gi
Bo co cui cng
F, G, I
Bc u tin l v s mng v xc nh ng gng:

5
10
12
5
1
0
0
3
5
5
A
5
3 E
C
2
12
14
F
2
7
I
8
8
H
6
16
16
J
6
22
22
14
14
Cc con s ny l thi gian thc hin d kin theo tun.
ng gng l A, E, H, I, J.
Tng thi gian thc hin d kin = 5 + 3 + 6 + 2 + 6 = 22 tun
Biu Gantt c dng theo cc thi im bt u sm nht, thi gian thc hin,
s lng nhn vin cn cho mi cng vic:
398

Thi gian
d kin
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Cng
vic
S
nhn
vin
10
10
10
11
Lu rng cng vic C khng th bt u cho n khi cng vic A kt thc, do

cng vic C c v khi bt u im cui ca tun 5 trn biu .
T biu mng ny, c bit l dng biu Gantt, tng cc ngun lc ang
c s dng mt thi im bt k c th tnh c bng cch cng ngun lc
ca cc cng vic ang tin trin vo thi im (gi s rng yu cu ngun lc
ca mi cng vic l khng thay i). Nu vic ny c thc hin cho ton b d
n, th kt qu l c mt Biu Ngun lc (resource histogram) cho d n. Chi ph
ca d n ny c th s t hn, nu cc im cao (peak) v im thp (trough) trong
biu ngun lc c san phng mt mc no biu phng hn; v
tt nhin yu cu v ngun lc vo mt thi im bt k khng bao gi c vt
qu s lng sn c trn thc t. S lng nhn vin cn cho d n ny c biu
din trong biu ngun lc di y.
S nhn vin
Biu ngun lc
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Tun
399

Biu Gantt v biu ngun lc s ch ra cc yu cu v ngun lc cn c
hon thnh d n.
5 PHN MM QUN TR D N
Qun tr d n
Cc phng php hoch

(Planning and
Cc cng c v phng
php qun tr d n
and techniques)
Phn tch d n theo

s mng
Phn mm qun tr d n
(Project management
software)
Cc cng c
hoch nh d n
tools)
5.1 S dng phn mm

Phng php qun tr d n l tng l tng cho vic vi tnh ha. Cc phn mm
qun tr d n xut hin cch y nhiu nm. Microsoft Project v Micro Planner
X-Pert l hai phn mm ph bin.
Phn mm c th c s dng v mt s mc ch:
(a) Hoch nh (planning)
S mng (biu din ng gng) v biu Gantt (biu din vic s dng
ngun lc) c th c to ra mt cch t ng ngay khi nhp d liu lin
quan. Cc phn mm cng h tr kiu phn tch nhn qu (what if) cho vic
hoch nh ban u, th nghim cc mc ngun lc khc nhau, thay i cc
hn nh tm ra cch kt hp tt nht.
(b) c lng (estimating)
Khi d n tin trin, chng ta s bit c d liu thc t v c th nhp d
liu vo phn mm ny ri lu li cho vic tham kho sau ny. V c bn,
nhiu d n bao gm nhiu cng vic ging nhau (phng vn ngi dng
v tng t), nn d liu thc t t d n ny c th c s dng cung
cp cc c lng chnh xc hn cho d n tip theo. Phn mm cng to
iu kin thun li v h tr vic p dng cc phng php c lng phc
tp hn cc phng php c lng m nh qun tr c th s s dng, nu
phi lm theo phng php th cng.
(c) Gim st (monitoring)
D liu thc t cng c th c nhp vo v s dng h tr vic gim
400

st tin , t ng cp nht k hoch cho ng gng v vic s dng
ngun lc khi cn thit.
(d) Bo co (reporting)
Gi phn mm cho php lp cc bo co tin chun v ph hp, in ra ri
phn pht cho nhng ngi tham gia v nh qun tr cp cao vo bt c thi
im no thng ch bng mt thao tc nhn chut. Cc bo co s rt hu
ch cho vic iu phi cng vic v tng kt d n.
5.2 Microsoft Project

a s phn mm qun tr d n u c tnh nng cho php m t qu trnh xc nh
cc giai on chnh trong d n v phn chia cc giai on ny thnh cng vic c
th. Mt phn mm qun tr d n in hnh i hi phi c cc thng tin u vo sau:
Tn hoc nh danh ca cng vic.

Thi gian cn cho mi cng vic ca d n.
Cc mi lin h theo lgc gia mi cng vic.
Cc ngun lc sn c.
Khi no c cc ngun lc ny.
Phn mm cng c th phn tch v trnh by nhng thng tin ny theo nhiu cch
khc nhau. Cc cch hin th trong Microsoft Project c biu din trong hnh minh
ha sau y. C th chn cch hin th t cc mc ca menu th xung (drop down
menu) hay qua cc biu tng tt (shortcut) bn tri mn hnh.
401

Khi xc nh r mc ch v cc giai on chnh ca d n, bn c th bt u to
lp k hoch. Chng ta s s dng li v d trong Phn 4.1 minh ha cc phn
chnh ca phn mm.
Nhng lin kt bn tri m t cc cng vic chnh ca qun tr d n. Hy nhn chut
vo mt cng vic thy thng tin chi tit hn, gm c cc th tc v cc hot ng
thc tin qun tr d n.
Qun tr d n l mt quy trnh phc tp, v th khng phi tt c cc cng vic ny
u c th p dng cho trng hp ca bn. V vy, c mt s gi vai tr nh ch
dn chung (general guide) hoc cung cp nhiu chi tit v vic thit lp, qun tr v
hon thnh d n. Bn c th truy cp Project Map (s d n) bng cch nhn
chut vo nt Map (s ) bt c u trong mc Help (tr gip).
Trc tin, nhp v sp xp danh sch cc cng vic phi hon thnh, cng vi thi
gian thc hin mi cng vic. Bng cch nhp thi gian thc hin cng vic, khng
phi ngy bt u hoc ngy kt thc mong mun, bn s cho php phn mm t to
ra lch trnh (schedule) cho bn.
Bn lm vic ny trn trang mc nh l mt biu Gantt. Nh bn s nhn thy t
nh chp mn hnh di y, chng ti chuyn thi gian thc hin thnh ngy. Theo
thi gian l tun chun, phn mm gi nh 1 tun c 5 ngy hoc 40 gi. C th thay
i thi gian thnh mt ngy c 24 gi hoc mt ca m.
Sau khi nhp thi gian thc hin cng vic, bn c th thit lp cc quan h ph thuc
(dependency) v rng buc (constraint) cng vic. Thm ch bn c th to quan h
ph thuc gia cng vic trong cc d n khc nhau.
lm c iu ny, di con tr chut vo cng vic bn ang x l v nhn chut
ln mc Project (d n) trn thanh cng c v sau l mc Task information (thng
tin cng vic). Nhn chut ln Predecessors (cc cng vic trc) v nhp ID ca
cng vic - trong v d, trc khi thu thp bo gi v nguyn vt liu th phi hon
thnh thit k s b.
402
Bng vic nhn chut vo Resources (cc ngun lc) (cnh Predecessors), bn c
th phn b ngi, thit b v nguyn vt liu cho cng vic. Bn c th in tn mi
ngi vo d n v thi gian h thc hin cng vic theo t l phn trm.
T l phn trm cc n v cng vic da trn thi gian lm vic sn c nh thit
lp trong lch phn b ngun lc (resource calender). Nu lch phn b ngun lc
cho bit ngun lc sn sng cho 8 gi ngy th hai, th 100% ngun lc cho cng
vic ngy hm c ngha l c th dnh trn 8 gi cho cng vic. Tuy nhin, nu
lch phn b ngun lc ch ra rng ngun lc sn c cho 4 gi ngy th ba th 100%
ngun lc c ngha l c th b tr 4 gi cho cng vic.
403

Nu bn mun phn b 3 ngi, v d cc nh thit k, lm ton thi gian cho mt
cng vic th hy iu chnh thi gian n 300%, sau gim thi gian thc hin
xung thi gian thc hin ban u - v phn mm s iu chnh s ngy cho php
(tng ln gp ba ln) m bn c th khng mun nh vy.
phn b ngun nguyn vt liu cho mt cng vic, hy nhp s lng nguyn
vt liu s c s dng theo n v o lng ph hp (tn, hp). Gi tr mc
nh s l 1.
Khi b sung ngun lc, bn c th ti Resource Sheet (trang ngun lc). Trang
ny s lit k tn cc ngun lc - cng vic hoc nguyn vt liu - v bn c th
nhp cc chi tit nh mc th lao chun (standard rate) v mc th lao lm thm gi
(overtime rate) cho mi nhm.
Trang Resource Usage (s dng ngun lc) hin th tn ngun lc v s gi phn
b cho mi phn ca d n. Nu c du chm than mu th n ch ra rng ngun
lc b phn b vt gii hn, do cn iu chnh.
Vi cc thng tin ny, phn mm to mt k hoch chi tit v ngun lc phn b
m bn c th kim tra li v iu chnh khi cn thit.
T biu Gantt, bn c th nhn chut ln nt Network Diagram (s mng)

hin th s mng vi ng gng mu . S mng bn di c ly t mt
v d khc, trong cc cng vic ch ko di mt vi ngy (khng phi hng tun)
nn d trnh by trong khun kh mt trang giy. ng gng v d ny l AEG.
Bn c th phn chia cng vic (task) thnh cc cng vic ph (sub-task). Nhn chut
vo nm bn di m bn mun cng vic ph mi xut hin, sau nhn chut
vo menu Insert (chn) v sau l mc New Task (cng vic mi). t tn cho cng
vic ph v in thi gian phn b cho cng vic . Nhn chut vo thanh tc v
404

(task bar) v ko cng vic ph sang phi n lui vo bn trong. Thao tc ny nhm
thay i cng vic chnh thnh mt th mc c th xp li hoc m rng cho ph hp,
khi bn ang nghin cu cc phn khc nhau ca k hoch d n. Bn cng s thy
thi gian phn b cho cng vic chnh thay i khi bn nhp cc cng vic ph.
Sau , bn c th in cc quan h ph thuc v ngun lc nh khi in ln trang
thng tin cng vic.
C rt nhiu tnh nng khc bn c th khm ph:

Bn c th hy lin kt (unlink) cc cng vic hoc tch chng ra, nu mun thm
nhiu ngun lc hoc tng nhn vin gp i thay v b tr xen k cng vic.
Bn c th thm thng tin h tr cng vic bng cch nhp ghi chp, gn file hoc to
siu lin kt cho cc thng tin lin quan trong file d n ca bn hoc cc v tr khc.
Ngay khi k hoch c thc hin, bn c th gim st tin , phn b ngun lc
v thc hin cc sa i cn thit.
Nh bn mong i, c rt nhiu tnh nng to lp bo co.
405

(a) Overview (tng quan) cho bit cc thng tin chung v d n: cc cng vic
cp cao nht, cc cng vic gng v s kin quan trng.
(b) Bo co v Current Activities (cc cng vic hin ti) ch ra cng vic
cha c thc hin, cng vic ang c thc hin v cng vic s sm
bt u. Cc bo co ny nu bt nhng cng vic nn thc hin sm v cc
cng vic ang b chm tin .
(c) Bo co v Cost (chi ph) trnh by ngn sch ca d n v nhn mnh cc
cng vic v ngun lc vt ngn sch. duy tr chi ph nm trong phm
vi ngn sch cho php, bn s mun tng kt li cc thay i v chi ph theo
thi gian, c th tin hnh iu chnh nhng khon mc cn thit. Lu
rng bn nn sao lu k hoch d n (make a backup copy) trc khi hp
nht nhng thay i ln (incorporate major changes), kim tra nh hng
ca nhng thay i trc khi lu v trao i thng tin v chi ph cp nht.
(d) Cc bo co v Assignments (phn cng nhim v) v Workload (khi
lng cng vic) c lin quan vi nhau, v chng u l cc phn khc nhau
ca cng vic v vic s dng ngun lc.
V phn mm ny l sn phm ca Microsoft nn bn c th nhp (import) hoc xut
(export) cc file t/ti cc gi phn mm khc. Chi ph cho nguyn vt liu c th
nhp t Access hoc Excel v kt qu c th xut vo mt ti liu Word.
5.3 Cc u im v nhc im
Cc u im (advantage) khi s dng phn mm qun tr d n c tng kt
di y.
u im
Nhn xt
Gip ti lp k
hoch nhanh
chng
Cc c lng c th c thay i nhiu ln v lch trnh

mi c to gn nh tc th. Nhng thay i cho k hoch
c th c phn nh ngay lp tc.
Cht lng ti liu
Cc k hoch c trnh by p mt, to n tng v tnh

chuyn nghip v d hiu.
Gip theo di tin

lin tc
Nh qun tr d n c th so snh tin thc t vi tin

theo k hoch v pht hin vn mt cch nhanh chng.
Phn tch nhn qu Phn mm gip xc nh kt qu da trn cc tnh hung gi

nh mt cch nhanh chng v d dng. Nh qun tr d n
c th to cc bn sao khc nhau ca k hoch phn tch
cho nhng tnh hung ny.
Phn mm qun tr d n c hai nhc im (disadvantage) l:
(a) Mt vi gi phn mm kh s dng.
(b) Mt s nh qun tr d n qu quan tm n vic to lp k hoch hon ho,
nn b qu nhiu thi gian vo vic to lp ti liu v khng c thi gian
qun tr d n.
406
5.4 S dng bng tnh kim sot d n

Khng phi tt c mi ngi u c th tip cn vi phn mm qun tr d n, nhng
a s u quen thuc vi cc bng tnh.
Cc bng tnh c hu ht cc tnh nng ca mt phn mm qun tr d n, tuy vic
tham chiu qua li gia cc trang tnh nhiu khi kh phc tp v i hi u vo trong
mt s cng thc trng khng my d chu. Vic xy dng ngn sch d n trn mt
bng tnh rt ph bin. Bng tnh gip cho vic phn tch thay i v kim sot ti
chnh d dng hn nhiu.
Gi phn mm bng tnh cng c mt t lch in t. Bn c th nhp ngy bt u
v ngy kt thc hoc ngy bt u v s ngy cn thit hon thnh cng vic
kch hot lch trnh.
Ngy v thi gian l cc con s - vic hin th cc d liu ngy thng v thi gian
trn bng tnh ph thuc vo nh dng s p dng cho . Khi bn nhp ngy hoc
gi m Excel nhn ra c, nh dng ca thay i t nh dng s General (chung)
sang nh dng ngy hoc gi xc lp. Theo mc nh, ngy v thi gian c cn
phi (right-aligned) trong . Nu Excel khng th nhn ra nh dng ngy hoc gi ,
th d liu nhp vo c xem nh vn bn, tc l c cn tri (left-aligned) trong .
ng h 12 gi hoc 24 gi - nhp mt gi theo ch ng h 12 gi, nhp
du cch v AM hoc PM (hoc A hoc P) sau gi. Nu khng th Excel s t thi
gian theo ch ng h 24 gi. V d, nu bn nhp 3:00 thay v 3:00 PM, thi gian
s c lu li l 3:00 AM.
Tnh ton ngy v thi gian - ngy v thi gian c th c cng, tr, v c mt
trong cc cng thc tnh ton. a ngy hay thi gian vo cng thc, chng ta
nhp ngy v thi gian dng ch (text) nm trong ngoc kp ( ). V d, cng
thc sau s hin th s ngy chnh lch l 216:
= 5/12/2004-3/5/2004
Cc bng tnh c tnh nng lin kt nhiu trang vi nhau, nn chng ta c th c trang x
l hng tn kho, trang lit k danh sch ngun lc sn c, danh sch gi thnh, mc
sn c v thi gian tham gia vo qu trnh sn xut ca nguyn vt liu...
Nhiu nm qua, cc bng tnh c s dng thit k v to bn mu cc h
thng lp lch trnh v hin nay, chng ang c s dng pht trin cc ng dng
lp lch trnh sn xut quan trng.
Sau khi nghin cu m hnh qun l hng tn kho c bn trong chng trc, chng
ta c th s dng cng mt v d minh ha cch s dng bng tnh nhm kim
sot tin sn xut. Trong v d ny, chin lc (ch l mt trong nhiu kh nng)
l sn xut sn phm ti u theo phng php Max Cover (sn xut va mc
tn kho l thp nht, nhng khng phi b cho s hng bn c trong thi gian
sn xut). Vic p dng lch trnh s c gii thch r nht bng cch s dng cc
nh chp mn hnh bng tnh Excel minh ha.
Bt u t pha trn bn tri, vo thi im bt u d n, ngi dng s nhp s
ngy/s nm sn xut, ngy bt u, mc ti u v mc nh nht, s lng cn sn
xut. Mc ti u theo ngy cho thy vi 48 n v hng tn kho ca Sn phm B, bn
c th cung cp cho khch hng trong 14 ngy [(1.200 n v c sn xut hng
nm 350 ngy sn xut) x 48 n v]. S lng nh nht sn xut l lng thp
nht cho mt ln sn xut no .
407
Sheet 3
Tip tc vi cc mc - Sn phm trong bng cng chnh l sn phm m chng ta

s dng trong cc v d v EOQ (lng t hng kinh t) v qun l hng tn kho.
Doanh s bn hng d kin s c chn t ng vo bng ny t Sheet 2 (bng 2)
trong v d. Nu bn c th nh c, chng ta s lin kt hai bng bng cc cng
thc dng = Sheet2!D3 - cng thc ny s ly cc ni dung ca D3 v t vo bng
- trong trng hp ny, ni dung l doanh s bn hng d kin cho Sn phm A.
Sheet 2
Mc sn xut (production rate) c th c thay i v bt k sa i no cng s

nh hng n mc sn xut trong qu trnh hot ng sn xut d on. Tng
s ngy sn xut l kt qu ca lng hng bn d kin trn 1 nm chia cho mc sn
xut trn 1 ngy. Mc ti u (max cover) theo cc n v c lin kt vi mc ti u
theo ngy. S lng l kt qu ca vic ly mc ti u nhn vi lng hng bn
c lng trong 1 nm, sau chia cho s ngy sn xut 1 nm ( trng hp ny
l 350). Hng tn kho d kin ban u (initial projected stock) c ngi dng nhp
vo v lin kt vi qu trnh hot ng sn xut. Qu trnh s c khi ng, bt
u vi vic so snh hng tn kho ban u v la chn sn phm vi mc tn kho ti
thiu sn xut - trong trng hp ny l sn phm C vi 10 n v hng tn kho.
Quy trnh trn a chng ta n chin lc ly sn phm vi mc tn kho ti thiu v
sn xut thm sn phm a n ln n mc ti u (max cover). Chng ta thy
rng mc ti u cho sn phm C l 32, do cn sn xut 22 sn phm C. mc
10 sn phm/ngy, vic sn xut sn phm C s mt 2,2 ngy. Trong giai on ny,
lng hng bn c c lng ca mi sn phm s c tnh ton v c
tr khi d tr hng tn kho d kin. Chu trnh ny t ng lp li.
408
TNG KT CHNG
Mc tiu ca qun tr d n l m bo sn phm cui cng tun theo ng tiu

chun k thut ca khch hng, c sn xut ng thi im v nm trong
phm vi ngn sch cho php.
Vng i ca d n c th c phn chia thnh cc giai on xc nh, hoch

nh, thc hin, hon thnh v tng kt d n.
Cc sai s c lng tng i nh c th nh hng ng k n li nhun.
C cu phn tch cng vic (WBS) l phng php phn tch mt cng vic
thnh cc cng vic c th hn. Phng php ny c th c s dng c
lng chi ph (bng vic xc nh ngun lc cn cho mi cng vic), v c s
dng lp lch trnh cc cng vic bng cch xc nh s ph thuc gia chng.
S mng th hin mt d n bng cch phn chia d n thnh cc cng vic

v biu din s ph thuc ln nhau ca chng.
Cng vic c biu din bng mi tn v gia cc nt tng trng cho s

kin. C th cn s dng n cc cng vic o. Bt k chui cng vic t im
bt u n im kt thc mt s mng l mt ng i qua s mng .
ng c thi gian thc hin di nht l ng gng. Bt k s chm tr no

trn ng ny s lm chm tr ton b d n.
Thi im xy ra s kin sm nht cho mt s kin l thi im sm nht m cc

cng vic bt u t s kin c th bt u. Thi im xy ra s kin mun
nht l thi im mun nht m theo tt c cc cng vic dn n s kin phi
c hon thnh, nu ton b d n s c hon thnh trong thi gian ti thiu.
i vi cc s kin trn ng gng, thi im sm nht v mun nht u

ging nhau. Cc cng vic trn ng gng khng c thi gian d tr: thi gian
d tr ca mt cng vic l thi im xy ra s kin mun nht ca s kin
im cui tr i thi im xy ra s kin sm nht ca s kin im bt u
tr i thi gian thc hin.
Nu thi gian thc hin hay thay i th phng php nh gi v tng kt d

n PERT c th c s dng c lng thi gian thc hin trung bnh v
phng sai ca thi gian thc hin. Phng sai ca thi gian thc hin cng
vic trn ng gng c th c b sung, do xc sut thi gian thc hin
ca ng gng vt qu bt k gi tr cho no c th c c lng.
Biu Gantt c th c s dng c lng s lng cc ngun lc cn

cho mt d n.
Phng php qun tr d n l tng l tng cho vic vi tnh ha bng cch
s dng phn mm qun tr d n.
409
CU HI N TP
1 Cc vn ring bit ca qun tr d n l g?
2 Xc nh d n lin quan ti ci g?
3 C th a ra bn loi c lng khc nhau no?
4 C cu phn tch cng vic WBS l g?
5 Khi no cn c cng vic o trong mng?
6 ng gng l g?
7 Thi gian d tr ca mt cng vic l g?
8 Cng thc no c s dng trong phng php nh gi v tng kt d n
PERT c lng lch chun v lch trung bnh ca thi gian thc hin
mt cng vic?
9 Nu c chui cng vic vi thi gian thc hin hay thay i, chng ta c th thm
cc lch chun ca thi gian thc hin chng khng?
10 Mc ch ca biu Gantt l g?
11 Biu ngun lc l g?
P N CU HI N TP
1 Cc vn qun tr d n ring bit gm c nhm - h phi c th trao i vi
nhau mt cch hiu qu v ngay lp tc khi nghin cu cc d n khc nhau.
Lun c cc vn mi theo d kin hay bt ng cn gii quyt nh nh gi
mt cch cng bng s ng gp ca cc thnh vin, chng hn cc chuyn gia
c th ngh ng gp ca h quan trng hn. Nhng li ch b tr hon i km
vi mt s d n cng c th gy ra tnh trng cng thng cho ngi hng li
cui cng - nhng ngi c th gy p lc ln qun tr d n khi thi im tr
nn kh khn.
2 Xc nh d n l quy trnh c tnh tng tc. Hay ni cch khc, ti mt giai on
no , n c th c chnh sa, lm r hn cc chi tit so vi trc d n c
th c xc nh trong hp ng, trong tiu chun k thut ca sn phm hoc
trong tiu chun k thut ca khch hng.
3 Bn loi c lng l c lng gn ng, c lng so snh, c lng
kh thi v c lng ng tin cy.
4 C cu phn tch cng vic (WBS) l qu trnh phn tch d n thnh cc cng
vic c th qun l.
5 Cng vic o c s dng trong phn tch mng khi hai cng vic c th bt
u v kt thc cng mt lc. Cng vic ny c biu din bng ng mi tn
nt t.
410

6 ng gng l ng i qua s mng vi tng thi gian thc hin di nht.
7 Thi gian d tr ca mt cng vic l lng thi gian thc hin cng vic c
th c ko di n im, m cng vic s tr thnh cng vic gng. Lng
thi gian ny cng chnh l lng thi gian m nh thi gian thc hin cng
vic c th c ko di, m khng lm nh hng n tng thi gian thc hin
d n. nh hng ln thi gian sn c cho cc cng vic trc v sau khng
c ch n. Do , tng thi gian d tr cho mt cng vic bng vi thi
im kt thc mun nht tr i thi im bt u sm nht tr i thi gian thc
hin cng vic .
8 Trung bnh =
a + 4m + b
lch chun, =
6
1
6
(b a)
9 Khng, chng ta c th thm cc phng sai ca thi gian thc hin hay thay i
tnh ton phng sai ca chng; v nu sau ly cn bc hai ca phng
sai ny, chng ta s thu c lch chun ca thi gian thc hin hay thay i
ca chui cng vic.
10 Biu Gantt biu din mi lin h v thi gian gia cc cng vic trong d n.
N l mt biu dng thanh ngang (horizontal bar chart) c s dng c
lng s lng ngun lc v thi im cn s dng ngun lc.
11 Biu ngun lc l biu ct biu din cc yu cu v lao ng ca d n.
P N BI TP THC HNH
1
B nhim vo mt v tr
Cng vic
Nhu cu
Ngn sch
Yu cu
cng vic
Cng vic
Cc la chn
Thi im
Chp thun
Ngi
Cc ng vin
Thu ht
ng vin
Sng lc
ng vin
Ni dung
qung co
Ni qung co
Tiu chun
nh gi CV
ca ng vin
Danh sch
chn lc
La chn
Phng vn
Ni phng
vn
Phng vn
Ca lm vic
B nhim
Cc iu kin
B nhim
B tr li
Quyt nh
2 (a) Sai s chi ph +/-5% c ngha l li nhun s c tng hoc gim 4.000 GBP
(tc l 5% 80.000 GBP), hay ni cch khc, li nhun tng hoc gim 20%.
(b) Sai s chi ph 10% c ngha l s tng hoc gim li nhun 8.000 GBP hay
40% li nhun.
(c) Sai s chi ph 20% c ngha l s tng hoc gim li nhun 16.000 GBP
hay 80% li nhun.
3 C, cng vic E v H c th c thc hin ng thi. Qu thc vy, y l iu
hp l nn lm. Nu thc hin cng vic E mt 5 ngy v cng vic F ch mt 1
411

ngy, th cng vic H c th c bt u trong khi cng vic E vn ang c
thc hin.
4 C 4 ng nh sau:
ABEGIL
ABFHIL
ACJL
ADKL
5
S
P
4
9
T
3
Q
7
R
2
Cc ng l ng PST (4 + 9 + 3 = 16 ngy) v ng QRT (7 + 2 + 3 = 12

ngy). Tng thi gian thc hin ti thiu l 16 ngy. ng gng l ng PST.
6 Cc thi im xy ra s kin sm nht duy nht b nh hng s l cc thi im
cho s kin 4 ( i sang tun 9) v cho s kin 7 ( i sang tun 13).
7
P
0
0
5
7
1
3
3
L
3
Q
8
8
M
5
J
6
12
12
N
4
K
5
6
7
8 Thi gian d tr cho cng vic D = 8 4 1 = 3 tun.

Thi gian d tr cho cng vic G = 12 7 4 = 1 tun.
9 (a)
3
B
1
0
0
8
8
H
6
14
14
2
3
5
E 3
A
10
12
D
5
5
2
5
5
C
2
I
G
4
16
16
J
6
F
7
4
14
ng gng l AEHIJ v tng thi gian thc hin ti thiu l 22 tun.

412
22
22

(b) xy dng mt biu Gantt, chng ta cn lit k tt c cc ng c th i qua
s mng.
AEHIJ
ADGJ
ACFJ
BHIJ
Sau , dng ng gng lm c s, chng ta c th dng biu Gantt
nh sau.
Tun
1
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
H
D
HG
G
F
B
Lao ng cn c
AB
EDC
10
EDF HDF HD
10 11
413
GHI CH CUI CHNG
414
Chng
11
Thm nh u t
Cc phng php
thm nh truyn thng
(Traditional appraisal
methods)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Dng nin kim v
dng nin kim vnh cu
(Annuities and
perpetuities)
Phng php dng tin

chit khu
(Discounted cash
flow methods)
Gii thiu
Phn tch ti chnh (financial analysis) c dng c tnh kh nng sinh li
ca mt d n u t tim nng. Phn tch ti chnh bao gm hai loi thng tin: (1)
tham s ti chnh (financial parameters) v (2) d liu chi ph v doanh thu (cost and
revenue data). Cc tham s ti chnh bao gm thng tin v khu hao, lm pht, thu
sut thu nhp, t l chit khu ca t chc, cc mc thi gian lin quan ti chi ph
u t ban u (initial investment) v chi ph hot ng hng nm (annual operating
cost). D liu chi ph v doanh thu bao gm c chi ph u t ban u v chi ph hot
ng hng nm.
u tin chng ta s xem xt phng php thi gian hon vn v t sut li nhun
k ton (Payback and the Accounting Rate of Return). y l hai phng php thm
nh d n u t vn, c th thch hp gp li vi nhau thnh phng php truyn
thng. V c bn, phng php thi gian hon vn cho bn bit s mt bao lu
hon li khon u t t li nhun ca n. Sau chng ta s nghin cu tip
phng php dng tin chit khu (Discounted Cash Flow - DCF).
Cc yu t c bn trong phng php thm nh d n u t s dng phng php
dng tin chit khu DCF: Gi tr hin ti rng (Net Present Value - NPV) v t sut
hon vn ni b (Internal Rate of Return - IRR) l dng tin (i lp vi li nhun) v
gi tr theo thi gian ca tin. D s dng phng php nh gi no, th chng ta
cng s dng phng php dng tin chit khu d tnh ca d n xc nh gi
tr hin ti ca n.
415
Mc tiu bi hc
nh gi c tm quan trng ca cc quyt nh u t.
Tho lun nhng u im v nhc im ca t sut li nhun k ton (Accounting Rate of Return - ARR) thm nh d n u t vn.
Hiu c phng php tnh thi gian hon vn.
Hiu c khi nim chit khu.
Tnh ton phng php gi tr hin ti rng (Net Present Value - NPV).
Hiu c phng php t sut hon vn ni b (Internal Rate of Return - IRR).
Gii thch dng nin kim v dng nin kim vnh cu.
Hiu c li kp v chit khu.
1 THM NH U T
Cc phng php
thm nh truyn thng
methods)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Dng nin kim v
dng nin kim vnh cu
(Annuities and
perpetuities)
Phng php dng tin

chit khu
(Discounted cash
flow methods)
1.1 u t l g?
u t i hi b chi ph vo mt ci g ngy hm nay v k vng li ch trong
tng lai. u t lin quan n vic hy sinh cc c hi tiu dng hin ti (current
consumption opportunity), c c li ch v kh nng tiu dng trong tng lai
(benefit of future consumption possibility). Mc ch ca thm nh u t l nh gi
xem vic hy sinh hin ti c ng gi hay khng.
Cc quyt nh u t cc k quan trng v chng lun lin quan n s tn ti, thnh
vng v pht trin ca t chc trong tng lai. Mc tiu chnh ti a ha gi tr ti
sn ca cc c ng (shareholder wealth) trong t chc l gi thuyt c bn lun
lun ng. Phi thc hin u t duy tr v gia tng ti sn c ng. t c
mc tiu ti a ha gi tr ti sn ca c ng, nh qun tr t chc cn a ra quyt
nh tt nht da trn thng tin c sn v s dng cc phng php thm nh thch
hp nht.
416
Chng 11: Thm nh u t

cp doanh nghip, u t lin quan n s tin m c ng sn sng u t vo
vn c phn (equity) ca cng ty vi mong i c c cc dng tin trong tng lai
di dng c tc (dividend) v tng gi c phn (enhancement of share price). Mc
c tc v mc tng gi c phn trong tng lai ln lt ph thuc vo mc cng ty
c th ti a ha li nhun t khon u t thc t (u t vo cng ty, nh xng,
my mc, vn hot ng) vo cc sn phm, d n, doanh nghip mi... Khon u
t c th xut hin trong mc ti sn c nh (di hn) nh cc ta nh, nh xng,
my mc trong Bng cn i k ton. Khon u t cng c th xut hin trong ti
khon kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh khi cp n quan h cng chng,
o to nhn vin, hoc nghin cu v pht trin.
S cam kt u t vn vo cc d n vn lm gia tng vn quyt nh ca nh
qun l; gii php cho vn , nu nh khng chnh xc, c th lm gim mt cch
nghim trng kh nng sinh li v s tng trng ca cng ty.
Quyt nh u t vn c cc c im nht nh khng phi lc no cng hin din
trong cc quyt nh khc ca nh qun l, do cn c cc phng php c bit
m bo rng ngi ra quyt nh (decision maker) c tip cn vi cc thng
tin tt nht.
Cc c im ny l:
(a) Chi ph u t tin mt ln.
(b) Lin quan ti cc ri ro v s khng chc chn cao hn trong di hn, v cc
d bo cho tng lai km tin cy.
(c) Mt s d n khng th phc hi do cc c trng c bit, v d thit b my
mc c mua cng vi mt d n c th c t hoc khng c gi tr ph liu
(scrap value).
(d) Khong thi gian gia thi im cam kt cc ngun lc v thi im thu li
nhun di.
(e) Kh nng ca nh qun l thng b dn tri vo cc d n i hi nhn thc
c mi yu t a dng c lin quan.
(f) Ngun lc c gii hn i hi phi xc lp th t u tin trong vic s
dng vn.
(g) Thi gian thc hin d n yu cu phi c y thng tin kim sot lin tc
do chi ph c th vt qu mt s lng ln.
thc hin cc quyt nh u t, t chc phi nh gi quy m dng vn ra
(outflows of fund) v dng vn vo (inflows of fund), vng i ca khon u t, mc
ri ro i km v chi ph c c ngun vn.
Cc bc chnh trong chu trnh lp ngn sch vn (capital budgeting cycle) c th
tm tt nh sau:
1
2
3
4
5
6
D bo (forecasting) nhu cu u t.
Nhn din (identifying) d n p ng nhu cu.
nh gi (appraising) phng n.
La chn (selecting) phng n tt nht.
u t (investing) vo d n chn.
Qun l (monitoring) d n.
Chng ta phi xem xt Bc 3 v 4 ca chu trnh ny, khi nghin cu thm nh

d n u t.
417

Chng ta c th phn loi d n chi tiu vn (capital expenditure project) thnh bn
loi ln nh sau:
1 Bo tr (maintenance) - v d thay th ti sn c hoc khng dng c na.
2 Kh nng sinh li (profitability) - v d ci thin cht lng, nng sut hoc
v tr.
3 M rng (expansion) - m rng sn phm, th trng mi
4 Gin tip (indirect) - cc cng trnh x hi v phc li.
Ngay c nhng d n khng c kh nng to ra li nhun cng cn c thm nh
u t. iu ny s gip xc nh cch tt nht t mc tiu ca d n. V th thm
nh d n u t c th gip tm ra cch r nht cung cp mt nh hng vi nhn
s mi, cho d d n c th khng mang li li nhun cho cng ty.
1.2 Cc phng php thm nh u t

Khi cn nhc bt k d n u t no, c su yu t cn xem xt:
(a) Chi ph ban u ca d n.
(b) Cc khon chi theo tng giai on ca d n.
(c) Vng i c tnh ca d n u t.
(d) Cc khon thu v mc thi gian (dng tin vo ca d n).
(e) nh hng (nu c) ti phn cn li ca d n.
(f) Vn lu ng (working capital) yu cu.
Mt trong nhng bc quan trng nht trong chu trnh lp ngn sch vn l tnh
ton xem liu li nhun ca vic u t tng s vn ln c vt qu chi ph cc
khon u t khng. Cc phng php m t chc kinh doanh s dng c th
c phn loi thnh cc phng php b qua gi tr thi gian ca tin v cc
phng php c tnh n gi tr ny. Chng ta s gi cc phng php ny l
phng php truyn thng (traditional method) v phng php dng tin chit
khu (discounted cash flow - DCF).
Phng php truyn thng - (phng php b qua gi tr thi gian ca tin) bao gm:
(a) T sut li nhun k ton (accounting rate of return - ARR) thm nh
d n u t vn da vo li nhun v chi ph ca d n u t, khng tnh
n dng tin hoc gi tr thi gian ca tin; v
(b) Phng php thi gian hon vn (payback method) thm nh d n
u t vn da vo dng tin, nhng cng b qua gi tr thi gian ca tin.
Phng php dng tin chit khu (DCF) - (phng php c tnh n gi tr thi gian
ca tin - time value of money) bao gm:
(a) Gi tr hin ti rng (net present value - NPV) - y l mt trong hai tiu
ch quyt nh u t c s dng rng ri nht da vo dng tin v gi
tr thi gian ca tin.
(b) T sut hon vn ni b (internal rate of return - IRR) - y l tiu ch cn
li trong hai tiu ch quyt nh u t c s dng rng ri nht da vo
dng tin v gi tr thi gian ca tin.
(c) Hon vn chit khu (discounted payback) - phng php ny cng da
vo dng tin v gi tr thi gian ca tin.
418
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
CH DN
Chng ta s xem xt mi phng php ny chi tit hn cc phn tip theo.
1.3 Cc nguyn tc la chn u t

1 GBP thu li ngy hm nay c gi tr ln hn 1 GBP thu li trong tng lai l v d
ca gi tr thi gian ca tin. C hai nguyn nhn gii thch iu ny:
1 Tin c th c u t theo cch khc, v d vo chng khon Nh
nc khng c ri ro, c th to ra s tin u t cng vi tin li trong
vng mt nm. Trn thc t li sut thc m mt ngi u t vo d
n s cao hn li sut ca Chnh ph, bao gm c phn b ri ro (risk
premium), bi v c cng ty v c nhn u khng phi l ngi vay n
khng c ri ro. Ni chung, ri ro u t cng cao th mc li nhun m nh
u t mong i cng cao.
2 Sc mua c th gim trong vng mt nm do lm pht.
Cc yu t c bn trong phng php thm nh u t s dng phng php dng
tin chit khu DCF: gi tr hin ti rng NPV, t sut hon vn ni b IRR v hon vn
chit khu, l dng tin (i lp vi li nhun) v gi tr thi gian ca tin.
Cc h s khc nh hng n vic tnh ton tiu ch u t gm:
(a) nh hng ca lm pht (inflation) i vi chi ph vn.
(b) Liu l d n c cn thm vn lu ng hay khng.
(c) Thi gian ca d n.
(d) Thu.
(e) Ri ro v s khng chc chn.
1.4 Ri ro v s khng chc chn

C mt s ri ro lin quan n mi yu t trong quyt nh thm nh d n u
t vn:
(a) c tnh chi ph ban u.
(b) S khng chc chn v thi gian, gi tr ca doanh thu v chi ph tin mt
trong tng lai.
(c) Thi gian ca d n.
(d) S bin ng li sut chit khu (discount rate).
Kt qu thc t thng khc nhiu so vi kt qu c tnh. Xt v u t vn, thi
gian ca d n cng di th nguy c mc sai lm cng cao v d n cng ln th s
nh hng ca n c th cng ln.
Do y l bc cui cng trong quy trnh nh gi u t vo d n, nn phi thn
trng thc hin mt s phn tch nhy. Phn tch nhy (sensitivity analysis) c
th c s dng nh gi ri ro lin quan n d n u t vn. Mt d n c
v nh sinh li, nhng cn tnh ton mc thay i i vi nhng yu t s dng
trong hot ng thm nh c th xy ra trc khi chng ta thay i quyt nh u
t vo d n hay khng.
419

Phng php phn tch nhy tng t c th c s dng nh mt h thng
cnh bo sm (early warning system) trc khi d n bt u thua l.
Tuy nhin, vic s dng phng php phn tch nhy c cc hn ch:
(a) Hai hay nhiu yu t c th thay i cng lc.
(b) C th khng c cc nguyn tc r rng chi phi vic chp nhn hay t chi
d n yu cu phi c nh gi ch quan ca nh qun l.
1.5 Qun l d n u t vn
Khi thm nh xong mt d n, thc hin phn tch nhy v chp nhn d n, cn
thit lp vic qun l d n v tin hnh nh gi sau khi hon thnh d n. Cng tc
qun l bao gm ba mng chnh:
(a) Chi ph vn (capital spend) - ch n nhng kha cnh thng dn n
chi tiu khng hiu qu.
(b) Thi gian d n (project timing) - vic tr hon xut hin gn nh hng ngy
trong nhiu d n ln nh thng thy trn cc bn tin ti chnh.
(c) Li nhun (benefits) - cng xut hin gn nh thng xuyn trn cc bn
tin ti chnh, y l mt kha cnh trong mi th khng th xy ra nh
k hoch.
thit lp mc qun l thch hp, cn b nhim mt nh qun l d n gii c
mc trch nhim v thm quyn tng xng, cng vi cn nh gi d n
thng xuyn m bo d n hot ng theo ng k hoch.
Cc quyt nh u t vn c a ra da trn c s cc c tnh - c tnh chi
tiu, c tnh thu nhp, c tnh thi gian... Nhng cc c tnh ny chnh xc nh
th no?
D n u t phi c nh gi lin tc. Mt phn ca cng tc nh gi ny l vic
thc hin nh k cc nghin cu chi tit nhng g thc s xy ra theo tng giai on.
C l mt nm sau khi u t vn, t chc nn t ra mt s cu hi nh l:
Khon chi thc t l g?

Cc khon chi thc t c thc hin vo nhng ngy no?
Cc c tnh v khon chi trong tng lai (s lng v ngy) c cn gi
tr khng?
Khon thu thc t l g?
Khon thu thc t t c vo nhng ngy no?
c tnh v khon thu trong tng lai (s lng v ngy) c cn gi
tr khng?
Cc li ch phi ti chnh d on c thc s tr thnh hin thc khng?
i vi cc d n u t ln hn, vic lm li bo co chi tit vo mt thi im sau

c th thch hp.
Ngi ta c th tranh lun rng, mt khi t chc a ra quyt nh chi tiu vn, th
l mt s cam kt v thng th t chc khng th thay i quyt nh ban u.
iu ny c th xy ra, nhng t chc c th rt ra bi hc kinh nghim. Mi t chc
u c th mc sai lm, nhng t chc c qun l tt v bit hc hi c gng khng
lp li cc sai lm .
420
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
2 CC PHNG PHP THM NH TRUYN THNG

Cc phng php
thm nh truyn thng
methods)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Dng nin kim v
dng nin kim vnh cu
(Annuities and
perpetuities)
Phng php dng tin

chit khu
(Discounted cash
flow methods)
2.1 T sut li nhun k ton (ARR)

T sut li nhun k ton (accounting rate of return) th hin li nhun c c t
d n nh mt t l phn trm ca chi ph vn ban u. Tuy nhin nh ngha v li
nhun v chi ph vn khc nhau, ph thuc vo vic bn s dng gio trnh no. V
d, c th ly li nhun trc khi tr khu hao hoc sau khi tr khu hao (depreciation). N l mt ch s hu ch xc nh u t c mang li li nhun bin hay li
nhun tt hay khng, v c th so snh vi tng li nhun t vn cng ty s dng
ch ra liu u t c gia tng kh nng sinh li hay khng. Bt c d n no c
tin hnh cn t c t sut li nhun c th chp nhn c. T sut li nhun
ny thng c so vi chi ph vn trung bnh ca cng ty hoc chi ph vn cho mt
d n c th. Cng thc tnh ton l:
ARR = (Doanh thu trung bnh hng nm / Chi ph vn ban u) x 100%.
e.g.
V D
T SUT LI NHUN K TON
Mt d n thay th my mc ang c thm nh. Chi ph cho my mi l 240.000

GBP v ngi ta mong i n to ra tng li nhun l 45.000 GBP trong thi gian 5
nm ca d n. Hi t sut li nhun k ton cho d n ny l bao nhiu?
ARR =
=
(45.000 GBP/5)
240.000 GBP
(9.000 GBP)
240.000 GBP
x 100%
x 100%
= 3,75%
421
u im v nhc im ca ARR
Phng php t sut li nhun k ton ARR l mt phng php n gin, d hiu
v c th s dng nh bc kim tra ban u; l u im chnh ca ARR. Phng
php t sut li nhun k ton ARR cung cp thng tin tng quan v mt d n mi,
nhng thiu s tinh vi nh cc phng php khc.
C mt mi lin h vi vi phng php o lng k ton thng c s dng. T
sut li nhn k ton (ARR) ging nh Li nhun trn s vn s dng (Return on
Capital Employed - ROCE) v vic xy dng cng thc tnh; iu ny c th khin
nh hoch nh k hoch kinh doanh d hiu ARR hn. ARR c biu hin bng
n v phn trm, iu ny gip nh qun l d dng s dng hn.
C mt vi li ph bnh, t ra nghi vn v ng dng thc t ca ARR:
(a) B qua gi tr thi gian ca tin.
(b) Khng quan tm n thi gian ca li nhun: li nhun trung bnh s khng
thay i cho d li nhun trong cc nm trc cao hn hoc ngc li.
(c) Khng c tn hiu xc nh no c ARR a ra gip nh qun l quyt
nh u t hay khng. Vic thiu ch dn cho vic a ra quyt nh ny c
ngha l cc quyt nh u t vn mang tnh ch quan.
2.2 Thi gian hon vn

NH NGHA
Thi gian hon vn (payback period) l s nm cn thit dng tin vo t mt d n u t vn
cn bng vi dng tin ra.
Phng php thi gian hon vn (payback period method) cho bn bit s mt bao lu ly li vn
u t t li nhun do khon u t mang li.
T chc c th c thi gian hon vn mc tiu, m nu vt mc thi gian d n
khng c chp thun.
quyt nh gia hai hay nhiu d n cnh tranh, thng thng mt t chc chp
nhn d n c thi gian hon vn ngn nht. Phng php thi gian hon vn
thng c s dng nh mt phng php s kho ban u.
Thi gian hon vn = Mc chi ban u / Dng tin vo hng nm
V th, nu u t 4 triu GBP vi mc ch em li 500.000 GBP mi nm (li nhun
tin mt rng), th thi gian hon vn c tnh nh sau:
P = 4.000.000 GBP/500.000 GBP = 8 nm
Cch tnh ton ny tng i d dng. Nhng nu d n c nhiu dng tin vo
khng u, th chng ta cn tnh ton thi gian hon vn i vi dng tin tch ly
trong sut thi gian ca d n.
422
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
e.g.
V D
THI GIAN HON VN VI CC DNG TIN KHNG U
D n sau y c vn u t ban u vo nm 0 l 4.000 GBP vi cc dng tin

khng u trong thi k 6 nm. Bng vic tnh dng tin tch ly cho d n mi nm,
chng ta c th tnh c thi gian hon vn.
Nm
Dng tin (nghn GBP)
Dng tin tch ly (nghn GBP)
(4.000)
(4.000)
750
(3.250)
750
(2.500)
900
(1.600)
1.000
(600)
600
400
400
Thi gian hon vn chnh xc l 5 nm.

Theo phng php thi gian hon vn, thi gian hon vn cng ngn th vic u t
cng tt. Chng ta c th nh gi cc vn ca phng php ny khi cn nhc
thm nh mt vi d n cng vi nhau.
Nm
D n
1
(50)
(100)
(80)
(100)
(100)
(100)
50
40
40
30
10
30
20
30
30
10
15
20
20
20
40
85
20
40
20
10
10
10
20
20
20
20
10
20
10
40
30
5
6
Thi gian hon vn (Nm)
Bn c th thy thi gian hon vn cho bn d n (2, 3, 5 v 6) l 3 nm. Bi vy,

trong trng hp ny, bn d n ny c gi tr tng ng nhau. Nhng, chng ta
phi i mt vi vn thc t do thi gian hon vn gy ra: gi tr thi gian ca cc
dng thu nhp.
Nhn nhn mt cch n gin, vn ny lin quan n nhng mt mt do phi
ch i nhn li vn. Thut ng kinh t gi l chi ph c hi (opportunity cost).
Chng ta s nghin cu vn ny chi tit sau.
Do , nu xt c rng buc v gi tr thi gian, trong trng hp ny bn d n
khng th c xem l tng ng. D n 2 tt hn d n 3, bi doanh thu thu
c nhanh hn trong nm th nht v th hai. D n 2 cng tt hn D n 5 v 6,
bi cc dng tin thu c sm hn v doanh thu trc thi gian hon vn tp trung
vo nhng nm u.
423
u im v nhc im ca phng php thi gian hon vn

Th nht, phng php ny ph bin v tnh n gin v hu ch trong qu trnh thm
nh cc c hi u t ri ro. Nghin cu qua nhiu nm ch ra rng cc cng ty
nc Anh a chung phng php ny c l v s d hiu, d tnh ton.
Th hai, trong mt mi trng kinh doanh vi s thay i cng ngh chng mt, c
th cn thay th thit b v my mc mi sm hn trc y, v vy khon u t cn
c hon vn nhanh. Phng php ny (khng ging nh t sut li nhun k ton
ARR) trong mt chng mc nht nh c tha nhn gi tr thi gian ca tin.
Th ba, mi trng u t c bit Anh yu cu cc nh u t phi thu c li
nhun nhanh chng. Nhiu c hi u t di hn c th to li nhun khng c
v h phi ch i lu hn c li nhun.
C mt vi tranh ci v phng php thi gian hon vn:
(a) Phng php thi gian hon vn thiu tnh khch quan. Nhn t no quyt
nh thi gian hon vn ti u? Khng c nhn t no c. N c quyt
nh bng cch so snh c hi u t ny vi mt c hi u t khc.
(b) Phng php thi gian hon vn khng xem xt ti cc khon thu v chi sau
thi im hon vn.
(c) Phng php thi gian hon vn khng xc nh c xu hng ca cc
khon thu trong sut thi gian hon vn.
(d) Phng php thi gian hon vn khng xem xt nh hng n kh nng
sinh li ca doanh nghip; ch quan tm duy nht n dng tin.
Cc khon thu k vng sau thi im hon vn khng c phng php thi gian
hon vn xc nh. Cc khon thu nh vy c th ng k v lu di hoc c th nh
v ngn hn. Tuy nhin, phng php ny khng phn bit c, bi ngi ta ch
mong ch c li sau im hon vn. Mt cch cng bng, bt k chi tiu no sau khi
t im hon vn (payback point) s b b qua. Th nn chi ph tho d hay chi ph
ngng sn xut cui thi gian hu ch ca vn u t s b b qua hon ton, v
chng xy ra sau khi t im hon vn.
Xu hng ca cc khon thu mong i trong thi gian hon vn cng b b qua.
C th c hai d n, mi d n ha hn thi gian hon vn l ba nm. Mt d n
ha hn mang li cc khon thu ln trong nm th nht, v cc khon thu nh hn
nm th hai v ba. D n cn li ha hn cc khon thu nh nm th nht v
hai, nhng li em li cc khon thu ln vo nm th ba. R rng xu hng ca cc
khon thu ca d n u t th nht c a chung hn, nhng iu ny s khng
c phng php thi gian hon vn xc nh, v n ch cn nhc tng cc khon
thu trong sut thi gian hon vn.
C l tt nht nn xem phng php thi gian hon vn l mt trong nhng phng
php u tin s dng nh gi cc d n cnh tranh nhau. Ngi ta c th s
dng phng php ny nh l cng c s kho ban u, nhng khng thch hp
lm nn tng cho cc quyt nh u t phc tp.
424
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
BI TP THC HNH 1
(10 PHT)
Mt d n yu cu chi ph tin mt l 900.000 GBP v thu li dng tin vo qua by

nm nh sau:
Nm
Dng tin vo (nghn GBP)
200
250
300
450
400
200
150
(a) im hon vn xy ra vo nm no?

(b) Tnh t sut li nhun k ton ARR.
3 PHNG PHP DNG TIN CHIT KHU

Cc phng php
thm nh truyn thng
methods)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Dng nin kim v
dng nin kim vnh cu
(Annuities and
perpetuities)
Phng php dng tin

chit khu
(Discounted cash
flow methods)
3.1 Gi tr thi gian ca tin

C hai phng php t sut li nhun k ton ARR hay thi gian hon vn u khng
tnh ton gi tr thi gian ca tin. Thm ch khng phng php no xem xt n lm
pht, 1 GBP ca ngy hm nay khng c gi tr tng ng nh 1 GBP trong tng lai.
Khi nim gi tr thi gian ca tin cho rng, trn quan im u t, tin c mt gi tr
ph thuc vo thi gian chnh xc khi ngi ta nhn hay tr n. Rt d dng gii
thch khi nim ny qua mt v d.
Gi s rng c mt hp ng gia ti v bn, theo ti phi tr bn 100 GBP ng
mt nm sau. Gi s rng s thun tin hn cho c hai bn, nu ti tr khon n
hm nay (tc l chnh xc trc mt nm). Ti nn tr bn bao nhiu?
R rng l, ti s khng tr cho bn 100 GBP vo thi im hm nay, v ti tr khon
n ny trc mt nm v ti s mt gi tr u t ca khon tin 100 GBP trong mt
nm. Bn cng c c c hi u t, v bn c 100 GBP trc mt nm. Nu bn
c th u t tin kim 10% li sut mi nm, bn s c c 110 GBP vo cui
nm (tc l ngy l ra ti tr tin theo hp ng). Hy nh l hp ng quy nh bn
s nhn c 100 GBP vo cui nm - ch khng phi 110 GBP.
425

V vy, ti s tr mt lng tin t hn 100 GBP nu tr tin hm nay, mang n c
hi u t cho bn, v ti mt i c hi u t. Vy chnh xc ti s tr cho bn bao
nhiu, nu ti tr n hm nay?
Cu tr li l ti s tr 90,91 GBP nu tr n hm nay. Sau bn c th u t s tin
90,91 GBP. Bn c th kim 9,09 GBP tin li (l 10% ca 90,91 GBP) v s c 100 GBP
trong thi gian mt nm - 90,91 GBP t ti v 9,09 GBP t vic u t trong mt nm.
Trn quan im u t, gi s rng li sut bn c th nhn l 10% mi nm, bn s
khng quan tm ti vic ti tr bn 90,91 GBP hm nay hay 100 GBP vo thi im
chnh xc mt nm sau, v vi bn hai s lng ny c gi tr tng ng nhau. Lu
rng, khi kt lun nh vy, chng ta b qua ri ro v thu.
NH NGHA
Thut ng "gi tr hin ti (present value)" n gin c ngha l lng tin phi u t by gi trong
vng n nm vi li sut r% thu v mt lng tin c th trong tng lai ti thi im o hn.
3.2 Nguyn tc chit khu c bn

hiu c cc cng thc tnh ton trong chit khu, trc tin chng ta nn xem
xt v cch tnh li kp.
Nguyn tc c bn ca tnh li kp (compounding) l nu chng ta u t X GBP
by gi trong n nm vi li sut r% mi nm, chng ta s c c X (1 + r)n GBP
trong thi gian n nm.
V vy, nu chng ta u t 10.000 GBP by gi trong 4 nm vi li sut 10% mi
nm, chng ta s c mt khon u t c gi tr 10.000 GBP x 1.104 = 14.641 GBP
vo thi im cui khong thi gian 4 nm (c ngha l, vo nm th 4 nu by gi
l nm 0).
NH NGHA
Nguyn tc chit khu (discounting) c bn l nu mun c V GBP vo thi im n nm sau ,
chng ta cn u t mt lng tin nht nh by gi (nm 0) vi li sut r% c c lng tin
yu cu trong tng lai (nm th n).
426
Chng 11: Thm nh u t

V d, nu mun c 14.641 GBP vo mt thi im 4 nm sau , by gi chng
ta cn u t bao nhiu tin vi li sut 10% mi nm? y l cch tnh ngc vi
tnh li kp.
S dng cng thc S = X(1 + r)n
Trong X
tin u t ban u
10%
14.641 GBP
14.641 GBP =
X(1 + 0,1)4
14.641 GBP =
X x 1.4641
14.641 GBP
1,4641
= 10.000 GBP
10.000 GBP hin ti, vi kh nng mang li li sut 10% mi nm, tng ng vi
gi tr 14.641 GBP sau 4 nm. V th, chng ta c th ni rng 10.000 GBP l gi tr
hin ti (PV) ca 14.641 GBP nm 4, vi li sut 10%.
Cng thc chit khu

CNG THC GHI NH
Cng thc chit khu l:
1
X=Sx
(1 + r)n
Trong

S
X
r
n
l s tin thu v sau thi gian n nm

l gi tr hin ti (PV) ca s tin
l t sut li nhun, th hin dng t l
l s khong thi gian (thng tnh theo nm)
i khi, t sut r c gi l chi ph vn (cost of capital).

Lu cng thc ny ch l vic sp xp li cng thc li kp.
e.g.
V D
CHIT KHU
(a) Tnh gi tr hin ti ca 60.000 GBP nm 6, nu li sut l 15% mt nm.

(b) Tnh gi tr hin ti ca 100.000 GBP nm 5, nu li sut l 6% mt nm.
(c) Mt ngi cn u t bao nhiu mc li sut 10% thu v (tc rt ra
c) 4.000 GBP nm th hai v 4.000 GBP nm th ba?
BI GII
Cng thc chit khu l: X = S x
1
(1 + r)
427
(a) S
n
r
PV
(b) S
n
r
PV
(c) S
n
r
PV

= 60.000 GBP
=6
= 0,15
1
= 60.000 x
6
1,15
= 60.000 x 0,432
= 25.920 GBP
= 100.000 GBP
=5
= 0,06
= 100.000 x
1,06
= 100.000 x 0,747
= 74.700 GBP
= 4.000 GBP
= 2 hoc 3
= 0,12
1
1
= (4.000 x
) + (4.000 x
)
3
1,12
1,122
= 4.000 x (0,797 + 0,712)
= 6.036 GBP
C th kim tra vic tnh ton ny nh sau:

GBP
Nm 0
6.036,00
Li nhun cho nm th nht (12%)
724,32
6.760,32
Li nhun cho nm th hai (12%)
811,24
7.571,56
Tr s tin rt ra
(4.000,00)
3.571,56
Li nhun cho nm th ba (12%)
428,59
4.000,15
Tr s tin rt ra
(4.000.000)
Sai s lm trn
BI TP THC HNH 2
0,15
(10 PHT)
Tnh ton gi tr hin ti mc li sut 7% ca 16.000 GBP vo nm th 12
428
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
3.3 Dng tin chit khu (DCF)

Dng tin chit khu (discounted cash flow - DCF) lin quan n vic p dng
cng thc tnh chit khu vo cc dng tin d tnh trong tng lai (thu v chi) t
mt d n, quyt nh liu d n c ha hn mang v t sut li nhun mong
mun hay khng.
Dng tin chit khu DCF vn dng khi nim gi tr hin ti, tng cho rng s tin
bn c hin ti s c gi tr nhiu hn mt khon tng t bn nhn trong tng lai.
V sao? S tin bn c hin ti (theo nguyn tc) c th u t v thu c tin li
hoc li nhun trong tng lai. By gi bn cng khng th s dng s tin m bn
ch c nhn vo mt thi im trong tng lai. Bi vy, gi tr tin trong tng lai
b chit khu trong nh gi ti chnh, phn nh gi tr nh hn ca n. Gi tr vo
ngy hm nay ca s tin trong tng lai c gi l gi tr hin ti, v gi tr ca n
trong tng lai c gi l gi tr tng lai. tnh gi tr hin ti, cn chit khu gi
tr tng lai v mc chit khu c quyt nh bi hai h s: di thi gian gia
hin ti vi tng lai v li sut (interest rate).
C hai phng php s dng cc k thut dng tin chit khu:
Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (net present value - NPV).

Phng php t sut hon vn ni b (internal rate of return - IRR).
3.4 Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)

NH NGHA
Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (Net Present Value - NPV) quy v gi tr hin ti tt c cc khon
thu chi lin quan n d n u t theo mt t sut hon vn xc nh, sau xc nh tng gi tr
hin ti rng. Nu gi tr ny dng, d n u t c xem l c th chp nhn. Nu gi tr ny m,
d n u t c xem l khng th chp nhn.
Gi tr hin ti rng (cho mt khong thi gian xc nh) bng tng cc dng tin
chit khu v tnh ton cn bit t l chit khu ca doanh nghip. D n c kh
nng sinh li, nu gi tr NPV ca n ln hn 0. Nu nhiu d n cng c xem xt
th d n no c NPV dng ln nht s c kh nng sinh li nht.
Gi tr hin ti rng NPV l mt ch s rt hu ch, bi n l thc o bng tin v
kh nng sinh li ca d n; v vy n lin quan trc tip nht ti s quan tm v cc
dng tin trong tng lai ca mt cng ty. Tuy nhin, ch tiu ny ph thuc rt nhiu
vo t l chit khu.
e.g.
V D
GI TR HIN TI RNG CA MT D N
Cng ty TNHH Dog ang cn nhc xem c u t 5.000 GBP vo mt loi thit b
khng. Li nhun tin mt (cash profit) tc chnh lch gia thu v chi tin mt t d
n s bng 3.000 GBP trong nm u tin v 4.000 GBP trong nm th hai.
Cng ty ny s khng u t vo bt c d n no, nu d n khng to ra t sut
li nhun vt 15% mt nm.
429
Yu cu
nh gi xem liu d n u t ny c ng u t (hay kh thi) khng.
BI GII
Trong v d ny, chi ph u t 5.000 GBP hin ti s thu v c 3.000 GBP trong
nm th nht v 4.000 GBP trong nm th hai. Tuy nhin, theo phng php DCF,
ngi ta thng gi nh rng dng tin pht sinh trong mt nm xy ra vo cui
nm, v vy cc dng tin ca d n nh sau:
GBP
Nm 0 (hin ti)
(5.000)
Nm th nht (cui nm)
3.000
Nm th hai (cui nm)
4.000
Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV) xem xt cc vn sau:

(a) D n mang li 3.000 GBP vo nm th nht v 4.000 GBP vo nm th hai
vi chi ph u t 5.000 GBP hin ti.
(b) Cng ty c th u t vo mt d n no t c t sut li nhun
15% mt nm.
(c) Nu cng ty u t t c t sut li nhun ng bng 15% mt nm,
th by gi h cn u t bao nhiu vi t l chit khu bng 15% thu c
3.000 GBP cui nm th nht v 4.000 GBP cui nm th hai?
(d) u t 5.000 GBP vo d n ny r hn hay u t vo mt d n khc vi t
l chit khu 15% nhn c cng mt dng tin trong tng lai?
Nu cng ty u t vo mt d n khc vi t l chit khu bng 15% mt nm, th
s tin cn thu c 3.000 GBP trong nm th nht v 4.000 GBP trong nm
th hai s nh sau:
Nm
Dng tin
T l chit khu
Gi tr hin ti
GBP
15%
GBP
3.000
4.000
1
1,15
1
2
(1,15)
= 0,870
2.610
= 0,756
3.024
5.634
Cn la chn gia hai phng n: u t 5.000 GBP vo d n hay 5.634 GBP vo

d n khc vi t l chit khu 15%, c c nhng dng tin trong tng lai ny.
V vy chng ta c th a ra cc kt lun sau:
Chi ph u t vo d n ny t hn 634 GBP.

D n mang li t sut li nhun hn 15% mt nm.
Gi tr hin ti rng l khong chnh lch gia gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin vo t

d n (5.634 GBP) v gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin ra trong tng lai (trong v d
ny, 5.000 GBP x1/(1,15)0 = 5.000 GBP).
430
Chng 11: Thm nh u t

C th lp bng tnh gi tr hin ti rng nh sau:
Nm
Dng tin
T l chit khu
Gi tr hin ti
GBP
15%
GBP
(5.000)
3.000
4.000
1.000
1
(5.000)
= 0,870
2.610
= 0,756
3.024
Gi tr hin ti rng
+634
1,15
1
(1,15)2
D n c NPV dng, do c chp nhn.
BI TP THC HNH 3
(20 PHT)
Mt cng ty ang xem xt liu c nn u t 18.000 GBP vo mt loi thit b thu

v li nhun nh sau hay khng:
Nm
GBP
6.000
8.000
5.000
1.000
Cng ty yu cu t sut li nhun l 10% mt nm.

Yu cu
S dng phng php gi tr hin ti rng NPV nh gi xem d n c kh thi
hay khng.
Bng chit khu (discount table)

Gi s s tin thu v l 10% mi nm:
1
(a) PV (gi tr hin ti) ca 1 GBP nm th nht l 1 GBP x
(1,10)
x 0,909
= 1 GBP
1
(b) Tng t, PV ca 1 GBP nm th hai l 1 GBP x
2
(1,10)
x 0,826
= 1 GBP
1
(c) PV ca 1 GBP nm th ba l 1 GBP x

3
(1,10)
x 0,751
= 1 GBP
Bng chit khu ch ra gi tr 1/(1 + r)n vi nhng gi tr r v n khc nhau. H s chit

khu ca cc k 0,909; 0,826; 0,751 c th c tra cu trong bng chit khu cho
t l chit khu 10%. (Bng chit khu cui sch ny).
431
So snh d n
Phng php gi tr hin ti rng NPV cng c th c s dng so snh hai hay
nhiu phng n u t. V d, gi s cng ty TNHH Daisy c th chn gia d n
trnh by trong Cu hi 2 trn hoc d n u t th hai, cng cn s tin 28.000 GBP
nhng s thu v 6.500 GBP trong nm th nht, 7.500 GBP trong nm th hai, 8.500
GBP trong nm th ba, 9.500 GBP trong nm th t v 10.500 GBP trong nm th
nm. Cng ty nn chn d n u t no?
Nguyn tc quyt nh l chn phng n c gi tr hin ti rng NPV cao nht.
V th chng ta cn tnh ton NPV phng n 2.
Nm
Dng tin
T l chit khu
Gi tr hin ti
GBP
11%
GBP
(28.000)
1,000
(28.000)
6.500
0,901
5.857
7.500
0,812
6.090
8.500
0,731
6.214
9.500
0,659
6.261
10.500
0,593
6.227
NPV = 2.649
Bi vy, cng ty Daisy nn chn phng n u t th hai, v n c NPV cao hn.
Chit khu v cc gi tr d tnh

Khng th d on mt cch chc chn dng tin trong tng lai. Trong trng hp
ny, c th tnh ton gi tr hin ti rng d tnh (expected net present value) l gi tr
hin ti rng bnh qun gia quyn (weighted average net present value), da trn xc
sut ca nhng trng hp xy ra khc nhau. Chng ta hy cng xem xt mt v d.
e.g.
V D
GI TR HIN TI RNG D TNH
Mt t chc vi chi ph vn l 5% ang d tnh u t 340.000 GBP vo mt d

n c 25% c hi thnh cng ln v to ra dng tin vo l 210.000 GBP sau mt
v hai nm. Tuy nhin, c 75% c hi d n ny s khng thnh cng nh vy v
trong trng hp , dng tin vo s l 162.000 GBP sau mt nm v 174.000
GBP sau hai nm.
Yu cu
Tnh gi tr hin ti rng NPV v t a ra li khuyn cho t chc.
432
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
BI GII
H s
Nm
Thnh cng
Tht bi
chit khu
Dng tin
PV
Dng tin
PV
5%
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
Nghn GBP
1,000
(340)
(340,00)
(340)
(340,000)
0,952
210
199,92
162
154,224
0,907
210
190,47
174
157,818
50,39
(27,958)
NPV = (25% x 50,39) + (75% x 27,958) = 8,371

NPV bng 8.371 GBP, do t chc khng nn u t vo d n ny.
Hn ch ca vic s dng phng php gi tr hin ti rng NPV

C mt vi vn lin quan n vic s dng gi tr hin ti rng NPV trn thc t:
(a) H s chit khu tng lai (the future discount factor) (hay li sut)
c s dng trong tnh ton NPV ch c th c c tnh v khng
c bit chc chn. H s chit khu c c tnh cho cc giai on
thi gian xa trong tng lai t c th chnh xc, bi vy dn n gi tr hin
ti rng NPV thiu chnh xc.
(b) Tng t, cc cng thc tnh gi tr hin ti rng NPV s dng dng tin
tng lai (future cash flow) c tnh. Cng nh h s chit khu tng lai,
dng tin tng lai c tnh khng th hon ton c d on chnh xc.
(c) Khi s dng phng php gi tr hin ti rng NPV, ngi ta thng gi nh
rng tt c cc dng tin u xut hin vo cui nm. Tuy nhin, gi thuyt
ny cng c th lm cho gi tr hin ti rng NPV cng thiu chnh xc.
Hin nay, c nhiu chng trnh my tnh c sn php tnh cho cc gi tr hin ti
rng NPV trong cc trng hp khc nhau (cc trng hp tt nht v xu nht).
Nhng chng trnh nh th cho php gim bt mt s hn ch cp pha trn.
3.5 Phng php t sut hon vn ni b (IRR)

Phng php t sut hon vn ni b (internal rate of return - IRR) nh gi d n
u t l mt phng php thay th cho phng php NPV. Phng php dng tin
chit khu NPV xc nh khon u t s mang li NPV m hay dng khi c chit
khu vi mt t l nht nh. Nu NPV bng 0 (tc l, gi tr hin ti ca chi ph v li
nhun l bng nhau), th t sut li nhun t d n chnh xc s bng t l chit khu.
NH NGHA
Phng php t sut hon vn ni b ca dng tin chit khu (Internal rate of return (IRR)
method of discounted cash flow) l phng php xc nh li sut (t sut hon vn ni b) m ti
NPV bng 0. Bi vy, t sut hon vn ni b l t sut hon vn ca vn u t.
433

Phng php t sut hon vn ni b IRR s ch ra rng mt d n kh thi nu IRR
vt qu t sut hon vn ti thiu c th chp nhn c. V th nu cng ty
mong i t sut li nhun ti thiu bng 15% th mt d n s kh thi nu IRR ca
n ln hn 15%.
e.g.
V D
PHNG PHP IRR QUA MT NM
Nu 500 GBP c u t hm nay v to ra 600 GBP trong thi gian mt nm, th

t sut hon vn ni b (r) c th c tnh nh sau:
PV ca chi ph =
500
500 (1 + r)
1+r
PV ca li nhun
600
(1 + r)
600
600
500
= 1,2
0,2 = 20%
Vic tnh ton t sut hon vn ni b IRR phc tp hn i vi d n c cc

khon u t v dng tin ko di trong khong thi gian di hn mt nm. C th
s dng phng php ni suy (interpolation method) tnh IRR gn ng.
e.g.
V D
PHNG PHP NI SUY
Mt d n u t 800 GBP vo nm 0 c th thu v 400 GBP nm th nht, 300

GBP nm th hai v 200 GBP nm th ba.
Yu cu
Tnh t sut hon vn ni b.
BI GII
Trc tin, tnh IRR bng cch tm NPV hai mc li sut khc nhau. L tng nht
l mc li sut u phi a ra mt gi tr NPV dng v mc li sut cn li tnh ra
gi tr NPV m nh. Khi IRR s nm trong khong gia hai mc li sut : trn
mc li sut ng vi NPV c gi tr dng, nhng di mc li sut ng vi NPV
c gi tr m.
Mt cng thc gn ng c tnh li sut no NPV c th gn bng 0, l ly
2
3
434
li nhun
chi ph d n
Chng 11: Thm nh u t

Trong v d, tng li nhun qua ba nm l (400 + 300 + 200 800) GBP = 100 GBP.
Bi vy, gi tr IRR gn ng c tnh ton nh sau:
2
3
100
800
0,08
Ta bt u th vi 8%.
(a) Th 8%
Nm
Dng tin
H s chit khu
Gi tr hin ti
GBP
8%
GBP
(800)
1,000
(800,0)
400
0,926
370,4
300
0,857
257,1
200
0,794
158,8
NPV (13,7)
NPV l m, bi vy d n khng t c t sut li nhun 8% v IRR phi nh

hn 8%.
(b) Th 6%
Nm
Dng tin
H s chit khu
Gi tr hin ti
GBP
6%
GBP
(800)
1,000
(800,0)
400
0,943
377,2
300
0,890
267,0
200
0,840
168,0
NPV 12,2
NPV dng, v th IRR ca d n ln hn 6% nhng nh hn 8%.

By gi IRR c tnh bng phng php ni suy. Kt qu s khng chnh xc,
nhng n xp x gn ng. Phng php ny gi nh rng NPV gim u t +12,2
(ti mc li sut 6%) n -13,7 (ti mc li sut 8%).
435
NPV
IRR tnh theo phng php
ni suy
+ve
(+12,2)
8%
6%
Li sut
(13,7)
ve
th thc ca NPV cc mc li
sut khc nhau l mt ng cong
NPV
Hnh 11.1: th th hin tnh ton IRR bng phng php ni suy
CNG THC GHI NH
Gi tr ca IRR, ti NPV bng 0, c th c tnh nh sau:
IRR = a% + [
A
AB
x (b a)]% trong
a l mc li sut th nht
b l mc li sut th hai
A l NPV mc li sut a
B l NPV mc li sut b
(c) V vy, trong v d, IRR = 6% +

12,2
(12,2 + 13,7)
x (8 6) %
=
6% + 0,942%

6,942%
(d) p n ch l gi tr gn ng (approximation), bi NPV gim t +12,2 ti
13,7 theo mt ng cong m khng phi l mt ng thng.
Vi iu kin l cc gi tr NPV gn bng 0 c s dng, th gi thuyt
tuyn tnh (linear assumption) s dng trong phng php ni suy l tng
i chnh xc.
(e) Lu rng cng thc s vn s dng c nu A v B u dng, hoc u
m, v thm ch a v b khc xa vi IRR thc t nhng khi kt qu s km
chnh xc hn.
436
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
BI TP THC HNH 4
(10 PHT)
Gi tr hin ti rng ca mt khon u t ti mc li sut 15% l 50.000 GBP v

mc 20% l -10.000 GBP. T sut hon vn ni b ca khon u t ny (lm trn
ti s nguyn gn nht) l:
A
16%
17%
18%
19%
CH DN
C th c tnh t sut hon vn ni b IRR ca d n bng cch v s cc gi gi tr hin ti rng
NPV v t l chit khu tng ng ca chng mt cch chnh xc trn th. Khi tt c cc im ny
c ni vi nhau, ta c th c c gi tr IRR gn ng trn th ti giao im gia ng
v vi trc honh.
3.6 Tnh NPV v IRR s dng Excel

Hm NPV v IRR c gii thch c th nht thng qua v d tnh ton sau.
e.g.
V D
NPV V IRR TRONG BNG TNH
Mt t chc ang xem xt thc hin mt d n, chi tit v mt ti chnh ca d n

nh sau:
D n: H thng mng mi cho Phng Hnh chnh
Chi ph pht trin v chi ph mua phn cng (tt c chi
ph pht sinh hin ti)
150.000
GBP
Chi ph vn hnh h thng mi (dng tin ra mi nm)
55.000 GBP
Khon tit kim hng nm t h thng mi (dng tin

vo)
115.000 GBP
Khon tit kim rng hng nm (dng tin vo rng)

Tui th d kin ca h thng
T sut li nhun yu cu trn khon u t
60.000
GBP
4 nm
15% mt nm
437

C th thc hin tnh ton NPV cho d n ny trn Excel nh sau:
Cng thc thc hin c ch ra di y, cng vi vic a s vo function wizard

(nhn vo biu tng fx trong thanh cng c, hoc chn Insert, Function bt u
function wizard - NPV v IRR l cc hm Ti chnh).
438
Chng 11: Thm nh u t

Trong d n v d ny, gi tr hin ti ca li nhun (benefits) d tnh vt qu
(exceed) gi tr hin ti ca chi ph (cost), tt c c chit khu mc 15% mi
nm, v v th d n hp l v mt ti chnh bi v n c th thu v li nhun ln hn
t sut li nhun mc tiu ti thiu l 15%. Thi gian hon vn ca chi ph pht trin
v chi ph phn cng 150.000 GBP s xy ra sau 2 nm.
Vic tnh ton t sut hon vn ni b (IRR) yu cu bn tnh t sut li nhun ca
d n hoc khon u t, sau so snh (compare) t sut li nhun ny vi chi
ph vn (cost of capital).
Nu d n thu li t sut li nhun cao hn chi ph vn, n s c NPV dng, v th
nn thc hin d n (t quan im ti chnh).
Nu t sut li nhun thp hn chi ph vn, NPV s m - d n khng c kh nng
sinh li v mt ti chnh.
Nu d n thu v li nhun bng vi chi ph vn, NPV s bng 0, c ngha l d n
s ha vn (break-even) v mt ti chnh.
Trong v d, IRR bng 22%, d dng vt qu chi ph vn l 15%. C th tnh IRR
bng cch s dng function wizard (nhn vo biu tng fx trn thanh cng c,
hoc chn Insert, Function, bt u function wizard - NPV v IRR l cc hm
Ti chnh).
439
4 DNG NIN KIM V DNG NIN KIM VNH CU

Cc phng php
thm nh truyn thng
methods)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Thm nh u t
(Investment
appraisal)
Dng nin kim v
dng nin kim vnh cu
(Annuities and
perpetuities)
Phng php dng tin

chit khu
(Discounted cash
flow methods)
4.1 Dng nin kim

NH NGHA
Dng nin kim (annuity) l mt khon thu nhp hoc chi tr c nh hng nm trong mt s nm
nht nh.
Ngy nay, nhiu c nhn c th u t vo dng nin kim c mua thng qua
thanh ton mt ln hoc nhiu ln. V d c nhn ang ln k hoch cho vic ngh
hu s ng hng k vo qu hu tr trong nhiu nm. V qua nhng nm , qu
hu tr (hy vng) ngy cng nhiu ln v gi tr cui cng ca qu c th dng mua
mt dng nin kim.
Dng nin kim c th hot ng cho n khi ngi th hng qua i hoc hot
ng trong thi gian n nm c m bo.
Cng thc tnh gi tr hin ti ca dng nin kim
Hy xem cng thc bn cn c th s dng khi tnh PV ca dng nin kim:
CNG THC GHI NH
Gi tr hin ti (PV) ca dng nin kim 1 GBP nhn c hoc chi tr trong
vng n nm bt u t nm u tin, li sut chit khu l r% mi nm:
PV =
1
r
1
n
(1 + r)
Ch y l cng thc tnh gi tr hin ti ca dng nin kim 1 GBP, do bn

cn nhn n vi gi tr thc ca dng nin kim.
440
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
e.g.
V D
CNG THC TNH DNG NIN KIM
Tnh gi tr hin ti hng nm ca dng nin kim 4.000 GBP t nm th nht n nm

th t, vi t l chit khu l 10% hng nm.
BI GII
S dng cng thc tnh dng nin kim vi r = 0,1 v n = 4
PV
= 4.000 x
1
0,1
(1 + 0,1)
= 4.000 x 3,170 = 12.680 GBP
Tnh dng nin kim yu cu

Nu gi tr hin ti (PV) ca 1 GBP =
1
r
1
n
(1 + r)
, th PV ca a GBP = a
1
r
1
n
(1 + r)
PV ca a GBP
a=
1
r
1
n
(1 + r)
Cng thc ny gip chng ta tnh c nin kim cn thit c t sut hon vn thu
v (r) trn s tin u t (P).
e.g.
V D
DNG NIN KIM YU CU
Gi tr hin ti ca dng nin kim nhn c trong vng 10 nm tnh t nm u

tin vi li sut 7% hng nm l 3.000 GBP. Tnh khon nin kim hng nm ca s
tin ny?
BI GII
PV ca a GBP
= 3.000 GBP
r
t
= 0,07
= 10
3.000
=
1
0,07
3.000 GBP
7,024
1
(1,07)
10
= 427,11
441
BI TP THC HNH 5
(20 PHT)
(a) Luyn tp tnh ton cng thc nin kim rt quan trng. Tnh cc h s trong cng
thc nin kim trong nhng trng hp sau:
(i) n = 4; r = 10%
(ii) n = 3; r = 9,5%
(iii) trong vng 20 nm vi r = 25%
(b) Tnh gi tr hin ti ca 4.000 GBP mi nm trong vng 4 nm tnh t nm
th hai n nm th nm vi t l chit khu l 10% hng nm? Hy s dng
cng thc nin kim.
BI TP THC HNH 6
(10 PHT)
Trong cng thc:

1
PV
r
n
= 0,04
= 10
1
n
(1 + r)
Tnh PV?
A 6,41
B 7,32
C 8,11
D 9,22
Bng nin kim (annuity table)

tnh gi tr hin ti ca dng tin c nh hng nm hay nin kim, chng ta c th
nhn dng tin c nh vi tng h s chit khu trong cc nm tng ng. Nhng
h s gi l h s gi tr hin ti tch ly (cumulative present value factor) hay
gi l nhng h s nin kim (annuity factor). H s gi tr hin ti ca 1 GBP trong
vng n nm, c bng h s nin kim (v d h s gi tr hin ti tch ly ca 1 GBP
mi nm trong vng 5 nm vi t l chit khu l 11%/nm l kt qu ct 11% v
dng nm 5: 3,696).
Cch s dng bng nin kim tnh s nin kim yu cu

Bng nin kim cng ging nh cng thc trn c th c s dng tnh nin kim.
V gi tr hin ti ca mt dng nin kim l PV = a x h s nin kim trong bng, chng
ta c:
442
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
CNG THC CN NH
Nin kim (a) =
e.g.
Gi tr hin ti ca mt dng nin kim

H s nin kim
V D
BNG NIN KIM
Mt ngn hng cho vay 3.000 GBP vi li sut l 7%/nm. Ngi i vay s phi thanh
ton n trong vng 10 nm. Ngi phi tr bao nhiu tin mi nm?
BI GII
Do ngn hng cho vay l thi im hin ti, vy gi tr hin ti (PV) ca khon cho
vay l 3.000 GBP. Thanh ton hng nm khon n c xem nh l dng nin
kim. Chng ta c th dng cng thc dng nin kim nh sau tnh s tin phi tr.
PV
Nin kim =
H s nin kim
Nhn vo bng gi tr hin ti tch ly c th thy h s nin kim = 7,024 vi n =
10, r = 7%.
Do :
Nin kim
3.000 GBP
7,024

= 427,11 GBP

Khon tin phi tr n hng nm l 427,11 GBP.
4.2 Dng nin kim vnh cu

NH NGHA
Dng nin kim vnh cu (perpetuity) l dng nin kim ko di mi mi, thay v dng li n nm.
Gi tr hin ti ca mt dng nin kim vnh cu (present value of a perpetuity) l PV = a/r vi r l
chi ph v vn biu din di dng h s t l.
CNG THC CN NH
Gi tr hin ti ca 1 GBP mi nm c thanh ton hoc thu nhp trong nin
kim vnh cu bt u trong mt nm, vi t l chit khu l r%/nm.
1
PV =
r
443
e.g.
V D
DNG NIN KIM VNH CU
Hin ti bn phi u t bao nhiu tin (s tin gn nht) nhn c 35.000 GBP
mi nm trong nin kim vnh cu, nu li sut hng nm l 9%?
BI GII
a
PV =
r
Vi

a
r
= 35.000 GBP
= 9%
PV =

e.g.
35.000 GBP
0,09
= 388.889 GBP
V D
DNG NIN KIM TRONG THM NH U T
Cng ty TNHH Mostly ang xem xt mt d n vi chi ph hin ti l 50.000 GBP v

thu v 9.000 GBP mi nm, ng thi ko di mi mi, bt u t nm hin ti. Chi
ph s dng vn l 15%.
Yu cu
nh gi tnh kh thi ca d n.
BI GII
Nm
Dng tin
H s chit khu
Gi tr hin ti
GBP
15%
GBP
(50.000)
1,0
(50.000)
1-
9.000
1/0,15
60.000
NPV 10.000
D n trn l kh thi, v n cho kt qu gi tr hin ti rng l dng khi chit

khu 15%.
Thi gian ca dng tin

Ch c bng nin kim v cng thc u gi nh khon thanh ton hoc thu nhp
u tin ri vo thi im mt nm sau thi gian hin ti. Lun phi kim tra xem iu
kin ny c tha mn hay khng.
V d: nu thanh ton 5 ln bng nhau, bt u t thi im hin ti v li sut
l 8%, chng ta s dng h s l 1 (thanh ton ngy hm nay) + 3,312 (cho 4 ln
thanh ton) = 4,312.
444
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
BI TP THC HNH 7
(15 PHT)
Cng ty TNHH Hilarious Jokes i thu trong vng 15 nm vi tin thu mi nm l

9.000 GBP. Ln thanh ton u tin l ngay lp tc v nhng ln thanh ton sau s
c thc hin vo cui mi nm.
Tnh gi tr hin ti ca khon thu vi li sut l 9%.
A 79.074 GBP B 72.549 GBP
C 81.549 GBP
D 70.074 GBP
BI TP THC HNH 8
(10 PHT)
Hin ti bn phi u t bao nhiu tin (s tin gn nht) nhn c 20.000 GBP
mi nm trong nin kim vnh cu, nu li sut hng nm l 20%.
A 4.000 GBP
B 24.000 GBP
C 93.500 GBP
D 100.000 GBP
4.3 Qu d phng chi tr

Qu d phng chi tr (sinking fund) l mt khon u t tr gp hng nm s tin
bng nhau (nin kim) ly li tc, do vo cui k hn, khon u t ln
thanh ton cc khon cam kt (gi tr cui cng).
e.g.
V D
QU D PHNG CHI TR (1)
Jamie mun mua mt xe -t Porsche 911. Anh y s phi chi tr 45.000 GBP trong
vng 2 nm. Anh quyt nh tit kim s tin bng nhau mi qu cho n khi s
tin mua xe. Gi s anh y c th kim c li tc t cng ty t ai vi t l l 5%/
nm. Tnh s tin Jamie phi tit kim mi nm. Gi s s tin u tin tit kim
c ngay t thi im hin ti.
(a) Tnh s tin bng cch s dng cng thc nin kim.
(b) Tnh s tin bng cch s dng bng nin kim.
BI GII
Nu Jamie cn 45.000 GBP trong vng hai nm th gi tr hin ti ca n l:
45.000 GBP
PV
=
2

(1 + 0,05)

= 40.816 GBP
(a) S dng cng thc nin kim
H s nin kim =
1
r
1
n
(1 + r)
445
Vi

r = 0,05
n=2
1
H s nin kim
= 1,8594
0,05
1
(1 + 0,05)
S tin tit kim mi qu l mt dng nin kim. S dng cng thc:

Nin kim

PV
H s nin kim
40.816 GBP

=
1,8594

= 21.951 GBP
Jamie phi tit kim mi nm l 21.951 GBP.
(b) S dng bng nin kim
Vi n = 2; r = 0,05, h s nin kim l 1,859 (xem trong bng gi tr hin ti
tch ly).
PV
Nin kim
=
H s nin kim
40.816 GBP

=
1,859

= 21.956 GBP
C s chnh lch 5 GBP (21.956 GBP 21.951 GBP) v lm trn s.
e.g.
V D
QU D PHNG CHI TR (2)
Cn cn nhc gi tr ca ngun qu c xy dng, nu mi nm chng ta tit kim

21.956 GBP trong vng hai nm vi li sut l 5% vi hnh thc thanh ton ln th
nht ti cui nm u tin.
BI GII
Chng ta c th xem xt trng hp trn theo bng thi gian di y:
Tit kim
HIN TI
0
Nm 1
Nm 2
21.956 GBP
(KT THC)
x (1,05)
21.956 GBP x 1
446
Chng 11: Thm nh u t

Gi tr ca ngun qu ti cui nm th hai l:
21.956 + 21.956(1,05)
y l cp s nhn vi
A = 21.956 GBP
R = 1,05
n=2
n
A(R 1)
Nu S =
R1
2
21.956(1,05 1)

=
1,05 1

= 45.000 GBP (gn nht vi 100 GBP)
Nu chng ta tit kim 21.956 GBP trong hai nm vi li sut l 5%/nm, s c gi tr

cui cng l 45.000 GBP. Cc bn c th thy t l li kp v chit khu l o ngc
ca nhau. v d th nht, chng ta tnh ton rng Jamie phi tit kim mi nm
21.956 GBP trong vng 2 nm vi chi ph s dng vn l 5%. v d th hai, s dng
cng thc tnh tng mt cp s nhn, tit kim mi nm 21.956 GBP trong vng hai
nm s to ra qu d phng chi tr l 45.000 GBP.
Lm li tht k nu bn cha r, iu quan trng l phi hiu c s lin kt gia

t l li kp v chit khu.
4.4 Th chp
Khi c nhn vay th chp t mt t chc tn dng, gi tr hin ti ca dng nin kim
thanh ton chnh l s tin c vay. Cc khon vay th chp (mortgage) p dng
mc li sut khng i cho mt thi k nht nh.
Nin kim =
Gi tr hin ti ca dng nin kim (gi tr ban u ca ti sn th chp)

H s nin kim (theo cng thc hoc dng bng)
Nin kim chnh l gi tr khon thanh ton hng k (regular repayment value).
Hy xem v d sau:
e.g.
V D
TH CHP
Tim vay th chp 30.000 GBP trong vng 25 nm. Li sut phi tr l 12%. Tnh s
tin phi tr hng thng.
BI GII
Gi tr hin ti ca khon th chp
= 30.000 GBP.
H s nin kim
1
1
=1
25
0,12
(1 + 0,12)
= 7,843
447
Nin kim (khon thanh ton hng nm)

S tin hng thng phi tr
PV
H s nin kim
30.000 GBP
=

7,843

= 3.825 GBP
= 3.825 GBP :12 = 318,75 GBP
Qu d phng chi tr l v d ca vic tit kim (saving), trong khi th chp l v

d ca vic i vay (borrowing).
So snh vic i vay v tit kim

Li th chnh ca vic vay tin thng qua tn dng hoc th chp l ngi vay tin c
th mua, s hu ngay ti sn (v c th dng kim tin), khng phi ch i n
lc iu kin ti chnh. Nhng mt khc, vic vay tin khin nh qun l kh kim
sot v lm cho vic kinh doanh nhiu ri ro hn. Bi v quyn quyt nh thuc v
ngi cho vay, nh qun l s c t s la chn trong vic s lm g vi ti sn .
Nu cng vic kinh doanh khng thnh cng, khon n vn cn v nu ngi cho
vay yu cu thanh ton ngay lp tc th doanh nghip s d dng b ph sn.
Li th ca vic tit kim l khng phi tr li v doanh nghip khng phi ph thuc
vo bn th ba no khc.Tin tit kim s sinh li. Tuy nhin, s tin ny khng phi
lc no cng c sn s dng cho cc d n c kh nng sinh li cao hn. Doanh
nghip khng th chc chn s c tin khi cn s dng cho mt mc ch no .
448
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
TNG KT CHNG
n
Chit khu l nghch o ca li kp. Cng thc chit khu l X = S x 1/(1 + r) .
Khi nim gi tr hin ti c th suy lun theo hai cch:
Gi tr hin ti l gi tr hm nay ca mt lng tin nhn c ti mt thi

im trong tng lai.
Gi tr hin ti l lng tin s phi u t hm nay to ra mt lng tin

nht nh ti mt thi im trong tng lai.
1
Cng thc tnh chit khu l X = S x
c bin i t cng thc tnh
n
(1 + r)
li kp.
C th s dng k thut dng tin chit khu nh gi mt d n cn chi ph

vn. C hai phng php: gi tr hin ti rng NPV v t sut hon vn ni b
IRR.
Phng php gi tr hin ti rng NPV tnh ton gi tr hin ti ca mi khon thu
v chi lin quan n u t mt t sut hon vn nht nh, sau tnh tng s
rng. Ch khi NPV dng, th d n u t mi c xem l c th chp nhn.
Phng php t s hon vn ni b IRR xc nh c li sut (IRR) m ti

NPV bng 0. C th tnh IRR bng phng php ni suy, s dng cng thc bn
di. D n kh thi nu IRR vt qu li nhun ti thiu c th chp nhn.
IRR = a% +
A
AB
x (b a) %
Nin kim l s tin c nh mi nm ko di trong mt s nm nht nh. C th

dng cng thc di y hoc s dng h s nin kim c trong bng nin kim
tnh gi tr hin ti ca mt dng nin kim.
PV =
1
r
1
t
(1 + r)
Gi tr PV ca nin kim
Nin kim =
Nin kim vnh cu l nin kim ko di mi mi thay v dng li sau n nm. Gi tr

hin ti ca mt dng nin kim vnh cu = a/r.
Li kp v t l chit khu c lin quan trc tip vi nhau. Bn phi hiu r mi

quan h ca chng.
H s nin kim
449
CU HI N TP
1 Khi nim gi tr hin ti l g?
2 Cng thc chit khu l X = S x
1
(1 + r)n
Trong
S=
X=
r =
Chn m t chnh xc t danh sch bn di.
n=
(a) T sut hon vn (l mt t l).
(b) Tng nhn c sau thi gian n nm.
(c) Gi tr hin ti (PV) ca tng .
(d) S khong thi gian.
3 Hai phng php thm nh vn thng dng s dng phng php dng tin
chit khu DCF l g?
4 Nu cng thc tnh t sut hon vn ni b IRR v ngha cc k hiu trong
cng thc.
5 Nin kim l tng s tin nhn c hng nm.
NG
SAI
6 Nin kinh vnh cu l g?

7 Nu cng thc gi tr hin ti ca mt dng nin kim vnh cu.
8 Nu Fred tit kim 7.000 GBP mi nm, v chng ta s dng cng thc tnh
tng mt cp s nhn tnh gi tr ca s vn s c qua 10 nm ti mc li
sut 20%. Gi tr A s dng trong cng thc ny l bao nhiu, nu:
(a) Ln u tin thanh ton l by gi?
(b) Ln u tin thanh ton l thi im sau y 1 nm?
9 u im chnh ca vic cho vay khi so snh vi tit kim l g?
450
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
P N CU HI N TP
1 S tin phi u t by gi nhn c mt s tin vo thi im o hn trong
tng lai vi li sut r%.
2 S = (b)
X = (c)
r = (a)
n = (d)
3 Phng php gi tr hin ti rng NPV.

Phng php t sut hon vn ni b IRR.
4 IRR = a% +

A
AB
x (b a) %
Trong a = mt t sut li nhun
b = mt t sut li nhun khc
A = NPV t sut a
B = NPV t sut b
5 SAI. y l mt tng tin khng i, nhn c hay phi tr hng nm cho mt

s nm nht nh.
6 Mt nin kim ko di mi mi.
7 PV = a/r
8 (a) A = 7.000 GBP x 1,2
(b) A = 7.000 GBP
9 S tin c sn hin ti mua ti sn cn thit i ngc vi s tin ch c c
vo cui k tit kim.
P N BI TP THC HNH
1 im hon vn ri vo nm th t. Doanh thu to ra trong nm ny l 450.000
GBP. Bi cn tr 150.000 GBP vo thi im u nm th t, thi gian hon vn
l 3 nm + 150/450 = nm.
Thi gian hon vn = 3 nm = 3 nm 4 thng.
T sut li nhun k ton
ARR =
Li nhun hng nm trung bnh

Vn u t ban u
x 100%
= 278.571 GBP/900.000 GBP x 100%

= 30,95%
451

2 PV = 7,014 GBP
Cc php tnh
S dng cng thc chit khu X = S x
1
(1 + r)
Trong S = 16.000 GBP

n = 12
r = 0,07
X = PV
PV = 16.000 GBP x
3
Nm
1
12
1,07
= 7.104 GBP
Dng tin
H s chit khu
GBP
10%
(18.000)
6.000
8.000
5.000
1.000
GBP
1,000
(18.000)
= 0,909
5.454
= 0,826
6.608
= 0,751
3.755
= 0,683
683
1
1,10
1
1,10
1
1,10
Gi tr hin ti
1
1,10
Gi tr hin ti rng
(1.500 )
NPV l m. Bi vy chng ta c th rt ra kt lun sau:

(a) u t vo bt k u vi t sut li nhun 10% u r hn so vi u t
vo d n ny.
(b) D n s thu c t sut li nhun nh hn 10%.
(c) D n khng kh thi (v PV ca chi ph ln hn PV ca li nhun).
4 IRR = a% +
A
AB
x (b a) %
Trong a = mt t sut li nhun = 15%

b = mt t sut li nhun khc = 20%
A = NPV mc t sut a = 50.000 GBP
B = NPV mc t sut b = 10.000 GBP
IRR = 15% +
452
50.000 GBP
50.000 GBP (10.000)
x (2015) %
Chng 11: Thm nh u t

= 15% + 4,17%
= 19,17%
= 19%
V th D l phng n ng.
5
1
(a) (i)
0,1
1
(ii)
0,095
(iii)
1
0,25
(1 + 0,1)
= 3,170
1
(1 + 0,095)
1
(1 + 0,25)
20
= 2,509
= 3,954
(b) Cng thc cho gi tr ca s tin 4.000 GBP vi li sut l 10%/nm, khng
phi l gi tr hin ti ti nm 0, m l gi tr ti nm trc dng tin nin kim
u tin, ti Nm (2-1) = Nm th nht. Chng ta phi chit khu kt qu tnh
ton theo Bi gii ti Phn 4.5 t nm th nht xung nm 0.
1
PV = 12.680 GBP x
= 11.527,27 GBP
1,10
6 PV =
1
0,04
1
(1 + 0,04)
10
= 8,11
Phng n ng l C.
7 tr li dng cu hi ny, chng ta c th dng bng gi tr hin ti tch ly cho
r = 9% v n = 14, bi v k thanh ton u tin l ngay lp tc (ch khng phi
l sau mt nm). By trong cu hi kiu ny l chng ta s nhn r = 9% v n =
15 trong bng. Nu bn lm nh th, nn thay i thi quen trc khi bc
vo k thi.
T bng gi tr hin ti tch ly cho r = 9% v n = 14, th h s nin kim = 7,786.
Khon thanh ton ln th nht thc hin ngay lp tc, nn PV ca 9.000 GBP l
(9.000 GBP x 1,0). Cc khon thanh ton ln 2 n 15 c PV 9.000 GBP x 7,786
= 70.074 GBP.
Tng PV = 9.000 GBP (thanh ton ln th nht) + 70.074 GBP (ln 2 n15)
= 79.074 GBP
Phng n ng l A.
(C th dng cch khc: Cng thm 1 vo h s nin kim, v khon thanh ton ln
th nht c thc hin vo thi im hin ti.
H s nin kim = 7,786 + 1 = 8,786
PV = Nin kim x h s nin kim
= 9.000 GBP x 8,786 = 79.074 GBP).
453
8 PV =
a
r
Vi a = nin kim = 20.000 GBP

r = chi ph s dng vn = 0,2
PV =
20.000 GBP
0,2
= 100.000 GBP
Phng n ng l D.
454
Chng 11: Thm nh u t
GHI CH CUI CHNG
455
GHI CH CUI CHNG
456
Ph lc
Ti liu hng dn ca T chc

Pearson Edexcel
457
Ti liu hng dn ca T chc Pearson Edexcel dnh cho Chng

trnh o to bc Cao ng Quc gia Anh v lnh vc Kinh doanh
(Pearson Edexcel Guidelines for the Pearson BTEC Higher Nationals
in Business)
Cun sch ny chuyn dnh cho cho cc hc vin quan tm, nghin cu v mng
Phn tch v ra quyt nh kinh doanh hoc ang trong qu trnh hc tp ly vn
bng cc loi v ngnh Kinh t.
Khng nhng th, ni dung phn chn dch ny cn p ng cc ch yu cu lin
quan trong Ti liu hng dn ca T chc Pearson Edexcel dnh cho Unit 6: Business Decision Making (tm dch, Hc phn 6: Phn tch ra quyt nh kinh doanh) ca
Chng trnh Cao ng Quc gia Anh theo chun BTEC. Phn tip theo l ni dung
trch lc yu cu tng ng ca Hc phn ny trong Ti liu Hng dn ca t chc
Pearson Edexcel ngi c tham kho.
Pearson l Tp on gio dc dn u th gii. Edexcel l mt b phn ca Tp on
ny, chuyn ph trch Kho th v Chng trnh o to cho Vng quc Anh v rt
nhiu quc gia khc trn th gii. Edexcel qun l nhiu chng trnh, trong c
BTEC HND. BTEC HND l chng trnh Cao ng quc gia theo tiu chun Anh thng
nht c ging dy ti hu ht cc trng i hc, Cao ng v l chng trnh o
to tn ti song song vi cc chng trnh i hc truyn thng ti nc Anh. Trit
l ca BTEC l ti a ho k nng ng dng kin thc ngi hc, a cng ngh v
nhng thnh tu khoa hc cp nht nht vo ging dy ti nh trng bng phng
php tip cn kin thc theo mt chu k c tnh thc nghim cao, pht trin l thuyt
da trn thc tin. BTEC c tnh nh hng ngh rt c th, ni dung o to c
cp nht ph hp vi nhu cu tuyn dng thc t ca x hi v c mt lot cc
Hi ng, Hip hi ngh ti Anh cng nhn nh Vin Lin hip K thut Institute of
Corporate Engineer, Hi ng o lng v kim nh - Institution of Measurement &
Control, Hip hi K ton v Kim ton ACCA, Vin Ti chnh K ton Institute of
Finance & Accounting... theo cc quy trnh iu tit v kim sot cht lng t cc
c quan bn ngoi, c th l QCA. l cc c im khc bit c bn gia BTEC vi
cc chng trnh o to i hc truyn thng mang tnh hn lm.
(Tng hp t nhiu ngun)
458
Ti liu hng dn Pearson Edexcel dnh cho mn hc: Phn tch v ra quyt nh kinh doanh
TI LIU HNG DN CA T CHC PEARSON

EDEXCEL DNH CHO MN HC: PHN TCH V RA
QUYT NH KINH DOANH (BUSINESS DECISION
MAKING)
CHUN QCF BC 5
Mc ch
Mn hc ny nhm gip ngi hc c c hi pht trin k thut thu thp v lu tr
d liu, nm bt cng c sn c xy dng v trnh by thng tin hu ch, a
ra quyt nh kinh doanh.
Tm tt mn hc
Trong kinh doanh, phn tch hot ng kinh doanh tt i hi phi s dng thng
tin mt cch hiu qu. Mn hc ny mang li cho ngi hc c hi nh gi cc
ngun thng tin khc nhau v pht trin k thut lin quan ti bn kha cnh ca
thng tin: thu thp d liu, lu tr d liu, cc cng c sn c xy dng v trnh
by cc thng tin .
Cc phn mm ICT c s dng ph bin thc hin cc cng vic trn, vic
nh gi, s dng phn mm ICT ph hp l trng tm hon thnh mn hc ny.
c bit hn, ngi hc s s dng cc bng tnh v phn mm khc phn tch
d liu, x l thng tin lin quan. Vic s dng bng tnh thao tc, x l con s,
hiu c cch ng dng kt qu tnh ton c coi l quan trng hn so vi vic
chng minh cc cng thc ton hc trong bi hc.
Ngi hc cng s nh gi c cc h thng thng tin hin c s dng mi
cp trong t chc nh l cng c h tr ra quyt nh (aids to decision making).
Kt qu hc tp
Sau khi hon thnh mn hc ny, ngi hc s:
1 C th s dng cc ngun khc nhau thu thp d liu, c d liu s cp
v th cp.
2 Hiu c cc k thut phn tch d liu mt cch hiu qu cho cc mc
ch kinh doanh.
3 C th trnh by thng tin vi nh dng thch hp a ra quyt nh
trong bi cnh c th ca t chc.
4 C th s dng thng tin c x l t phn mm (software-generated
information) a ra quyt nh trong t chc.
459
Ni dung
1
460
c nu
trong (cc)
chng
Cc ngun thu thp d liu

Ngun s cp (primary sources): Phng php iu tra, thit
k bng iu tra, lp biu mu, cc phng php ly mu,
sai st ca mu.
Ngun th cp (secondary sources): Nghin cu qua Internet,

d liu ca Chnh ph v cc n phm chnh thc, cc d liu
nh l sn phm ph ca hot ng sn xut kinh doanh.
Lu tr: Bo mt thng tin, vn bo mt d liu, vn

o c.
Cc k thut phn tch d liu

Cc gi tr i din (representative values): S trung bnh
cng, trung v, mt, kt qu tnh ton t d liu th v cc
phn phi tn s; s dng kt qu a ra kt lun.
Cc s o phn tn (measures of dispersion): lch

chun cho cc mu nh v ln; cc ng dng ph bin (kim
sot qu trnh bng thng k, cc mc hng bnh n).
Cc php tnh (calculation): T phn v, bch phn v, h s

tng quan.
3, 4
Thng tin vi cc nh dng thch hp

Xy dng v trnh by cc biu s dng bng tnh: Biu
ng, biu ct, biu hnh trn v biu tn s.
Biu im (XY) v ng xu th: Php ngoi suy d

bo ( tin cy).
Thuyt trnh v vit bo co: S dng nh dng thch hp,

cc k thut v phn mm thuyt trnh.
6, 7
Thng tin c x l t phn mm

Cc h thng thng tin qun l (management information
systems): My tnh v cc cng c x l thng tin, cc cp
chin thut v chin lc ca t chc.
Qun tr d n (project management): Phn tch biu

ng gng v mng, biu Gantt v PERT.
10
Cc cng c ti chnh : Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV); dng tin

chit khu, t sut hon vn ni b (IRR).
11
Ti liu hng dn Pearson Edexcel dnh cho mn hc: Phn tch v ra quyt nh kinh doanh
Kt qu hc tp (KQ)
Tiu ch nh gi
Sau khi hon thnh mn hc, Ngi hc c th:

ngi hc s:
KQ.1 C th s dng mt lot ngun 1.1 Lp k hoch t tp hp c s d liu
thu thp d liu (sources for
s cp v th cp cho mt vn kinh
the collection of data), c d
doanh.
liu s cp v d liu th cp. 1.2 Trnh by cc phng php iu tra
(survey methodology) v khung ly mu
(sampling frame) c s dng.
1.3 Thit k phiu iu tra (questionnaire)
cho mt vn kinh doanh.
KQ.2 Hiu cc k thut phn tch 2.1 To thng tin cho vic ra quyt nh bng
d liu (range of techniques
cch tm tt d liu t cc gi tr i din.
to analyse data) hiu qu cho 2.2 Phn tch kt qu rt ra kt lun hu
mc ch kinh doanh.
ch v ph hp vi bi cnh kinh doanh.
2.3 Phn tch d liu bng cch s dng cc
s o phn tn thng bo cc tnh
hung c th trong kinh doanh.
2.4 Gii thch cch s dng t phn v, thp
phn v v h s tng quan rt ra
kt lun hu ch trong mt bi cnh kinh
doanh.
KQ.3 C th trnh by thng tin 3.1 To th bng cch s dng bng tnh
vi nh dng thch hp
rt ra kt lun c gi tr da trn cc
(information in appropriate
thng tin thu c.
format) nhm mc ch ra 3.2 To cc ng xu th trong th bng
quyt nh trong mt t chc.
tnh h tr vic d bo thng tin kinh
doanh.
3.3 Chun b bi thuyt trnh kinh doanh, s
dng phn mm v k thut ph hp
ph bin thng tin hiu qu.
3.4 Trnh by bo co kinh doanh chnh thc.
KQ.4 S dng thng tin c x 4.1 S dng cc cng c x l thng tin
l t phn mm a ra
thch hp.
quyt nh cc cp vn 4.2 Chun b k hoch hot ng cho d n
hnh, chin thut v chin
v xc nh ng gng (critical path).
lc trong mt t chc.
4.3 S dng cc cng c ti chnh cho vic
ra quyt nh.
461

Lin kt
Mn hc ny c th c lin kt vi cc mn hc chnh trong chng trnh, c th
l: Mi trng kinh doanh; Chin lc kinh doanh; v D n nghin cu.
Mn hc ny cng c th lin kt ti cc mn chuyn ngnh khc, bao gm: Qun
tr doanh nghip; Qun tr thng tin, tri thc v hot ng truyn thng trong doanh
nghip; v Lp k hoch marketing.
Yu cu thit yu
Hc vin cn phi tip cn vi my tnh v internet, cng nh cc gi phn mm
chuyn dng v phn tch thng k v lp k hoch s mng.
Cam kt ca ngi s dng lao ng v bi cnh ngh nghip
Cc trung tm nn c gng thit lp mi quan h vi cc doanh nghip trong nc.
Rt nhiu doanh nghip v phng thng mi mong mun thc y hot ng kinh
doanh trong nc v sn sng to c hi n thm, lm din gi khch mi, cng
nh cung cp thng tin v hot ng kinh doanh v bi cnh kinh doanh.
462
Cc bng ton hc
463
464
Cc bng ton hc
CC BNG TON HC
BNG GI TR HIN TI (PRESENT VALUE TABLE)
Gi tr hin ti ca 1, l (1 + r)-n
Trong r = t l chit khu
n = s chu k thi gian cho n khi thanh ton
S chu k
thi gian
(n)
T l chit khu (r)

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0,990 0,980 0,971 0,962 0,952 0,943 0,935 0,926 0,917 0,909
0,980 0,961 0,943 0,925 0,907 0,890 0,873 0,857 0,842 0,826
0,971 0,942 0,915 0,889 0,864 0,840 0,816 0,794 0,772 0,751
0,961 0,924 0,888 0,855 0,823 0,792 0,763 0,735 0,708 0,683
0,951 0,906 0,863 0,822 0,784 0,747 0,713 0,681 0,650 0,621
0,942 0,888 0,837 0,790 0,746 0,705 0,666 0,630 0,596 0,564
0,933 0,871 0,813 0,760 0,711 0,665 0,623 0,583 0,547 0,513
0,923 0,853 0,789 0,731 0,677 0,627 0,582 0,540 0,502 0,467
0,914 0,837 0,766 0,703 0,645 0,592 0,544 0,500 0,460 0,424
10
0,905 0,820 0,744 0,676 0,614 0,558 0,508 0,463 0,422 0,386
11
0,896 0,804 0,722 0,650 0,585 0,527 0,475 0,429 0,388 0,350
12
0,887 0,788 0,701 0,625 0,557 0,497 0,444 0,397 0,356 0,319
13
0,879 0,773 0,681 0,601 0,530 0,469 0,415 0,368 0,326 0,290
14
0,870 0,758 0,661 0,577 0,505 0,442 0,388 0,340 0,299 0,263
15
0,861 0,743 0,642 0,555 0,481 0,417 0,362 0,315 0,275 0,239
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
0,901 0,893 0,885 0,877 0,870 0,862 0,855 0,847 0,840 0,833
0,812 0,797 0,783 0,769 0,756 0,743 0,731 0,718 0,706 0,694
0,731 0,712 0,693 0,675 0,658 0,641 0,624 0,609 0,593 0,579
0,659 0,636 0,613 0,592 0,572 0,552 0,534 0,516 0,499 0,482
0,593 0,567 0,543 0,519 0,497 0,476 0,456 0,437 0,419 0,402
0,535 0,507 0,480 0,456 0,432 0,410 0,390 0,370 0,352 0,335
0,482 0,452 0,425 0,400 0,376 0,354 0,333 0,314 0,296 0,279
0,434 0,404 0,376 0,351 0,327 0,305 0,285 0,266 0,249 0,233
0,391 0,361 0,333 0,308 0,284 0,263 0,243 0,225 0,209 0,194
10
0,352 0,322 0,295 0,270 0,247 0,227 0,208 0,191 0,176 0,162
11
0,317 0,287 0,261 0,237 0,215 0,195 0,178 0,162 0,148 0,135
12
0,286 0,257 0,231 0,208 0,187 0,168 0,152 0,137 0,124 0,112
13
0,258 0,229 0,204 0,182 0,163 0,145 0,130 0,116 0,104 0,093
14
0,232 0,205 0,181 0,160 0,141 0,125 0,111 0,099 0,088 0,078
15
0,209 0,183 0,160 0,140 0,123 0,108 0,095 0,084 0,074 0,065
465
BNG NIN KIM (ANNUITY TABLE)

Gi tr hin ti ca dng nin kim ca 1, l
1 (1+r)-n
r
Trong r = t l chit khu

n = s chu k thi gian cho n khi thanh ton
S chu k
thi gian
(n)
T l chit khu (r)

1%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0,990 0,980 0,971 0,962 0,952 0,943 0,935 0,926 0,917 0,909
1,970 1,942 1,913 1,886 1,859 1,833 1,808 1,783 1,759 1,736
2,941 2,884 2,829 2,775 2,723 2,673 2,624 2,577 2,531 2,487
3,902 3,808 3,717 3,630 3,546 3,465 3,387 3,312 3,240 3,170
4,853 4,713 4,580 4,452 4,329 4,212 4,100 3,993 3,890 3,791
5,795 5,601 5,417 5,242 5,076 4,917 4,767 4,623 4,486 4,355
6,728 6,472 6,230 6,002 5,786 5,582 5,389 5,206 5,033 4,868
7,652 7,325 7,020 6,733 6,463 6,210 5,971 5,747 5,535 5,335
8,566 8,162 7,786 7,435 7,108 6,802 6,515 6,247 5,995 5,759
10
9,471 8,983 8,530 8,111 7,722 7,360 7,024 6,710 6,418 6,145
11
10,37 9,787 9,253 8,760 8,306 7,887 7,499 7,139 6,805 6,495
12
11,26 10,58 9,954 9,385 8,863 8,384 7,943 7,536 7,161 6,814
13
12,13 11,35 10,63 9,986 9,394 8,853 8,358 7,904 7,487 7,103
14
13,00 12,11 11,30 10,56 9,899 9,295 8,745 8,244 7,786 7,367
15
13,87 12,85 11,94 11,12 10,38 9,712 9,108 8,559 8,061 7,606
11%
466
2%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
0,901 0,893 0,885 0,877 0,870 0,862 0,855 0,847 0,840 0,833
1,713 1,690 1,668 1,647 1,626 1,605 1,585 1,566 1,547 1,528
2,444 2,402 2,361 2,322 2,283 2,246 2,210 2,174 2,140 2,106
3,102 3,037 2,974 2,914 2,855 2,798 2,743 2,690 2,639 2,589
3,696 3,605 3,517 3,433 3,352 3,274 3,199 3,127 3,058 2,991
4,231 4,111 3,998 3,889 3,784 3,685 3,589 3,498 3,410 3,326
4,712 4,564 4,423 4,288 4,160 4,039 3,922 3,812 3,706 3,605
5,146 4,968 4,799 4,639 4,487 4,344 4,207 4,078 3,954 3,837
5,537 5,328 5,132 4,946 4,772 4,607 4,451 4,303 4,163 4,031
10
5,889 5,650 5,426 5,216 5,019 4,833 4,659 4,494 4,339 4,192
11
6,207 5,938 5,687 5,453 5,234 5,029 4,836 4,656 4,486 4,327
12
6,492 6,194 5,918 5,660 5,421 5,197 4,988 4,793 4,611 4,439
13
6,750 6,424 6,122 5,842 5,583 5,342 5,118 4,910 4,715 4,533
14
6,982 6,628 6,302 6,002 5,724 5,468 5,229 5,008 4,802 4,611
15
7,191 6,811 6,462 6,142 5,847 5,575 5,324 5,092 4,876 4,675
Thut ng
467

Bch phn v th p (pth percentile) l mt gi tr sao cho di gi tr c p% tng
s quan st v trn gi tr c (100-p)% tng s quan st ca tp d liu.
Bng (table) l mt ma trn d liu theo hng v ct, trong cc hng v ct c
tiu .
Bng tnh (spreadsheet) v c bn l mt trang in t c chia thnh cc hng
v ct. Bng tnh cung cp phng php thc hin cc php tnh mt cch
t ng.
Bin (variable) l mt i lng c th o lng. Bin c chia thnh hai loi: bin
ri rc (ch c th nhn mt s hu hn v m c trong mt khong nht
nh) v bin lin tc (c th nhn bt c gi tr no).
Bin i theo ma (seasonal variation) l dao ng ngn hn ca cc gi tr c
ghi chp, do nhng tnh hung khc nhau nh hng n kt qu ti cc thi
im khc nhau trong nm, cc ngy khc nhau trong tun, hay cc thi im
khc nhau trong ngy, v.v
Biu ct (bar chart) l biu trong cc i lng c minh ha bng ct.
Biu ng cong (ogive) biu din s lng tch ly ca mt i lng vi gi
tr nh hn hoc bng, hay ln hn hoc bng, mt lng nht nh.
Biu Gantt (Gantt chart) l biu c cc ng th hin c thi gian v hot
ng. Ta c th s dng biu ny c tnh s lng ngun lc m d
n yu cu. Trong trng hp cc hot ng trong mt chui lin tc, tip
ni nhau, nhng hot ng ny c th c v nh mt ng lin tc trn
biu .
Biu hnh ch Z (Z chart) l mt dng biu chui thi gian.
Biu hnh trn (pie chart) dng minh ha bng hnh nh kch thc tng i
ca nhng yu t cu thnh nn mt tng th.
Biu ngun lc (resource histogram) th hin tng quan d liu d n, trong
cc yu cu, vic s dng v s sn c ngun lc c biu din cho tng
thi gian c th.
Biu tn s (histogram) l phng php biu din d liu (thng thng) cho
d liu c phn t ca mt bin lin tc. Mc d trng ging nh biu
ct, nhng cc tn s c biu din bng din tch bao ph ch khng phi
bng chiu cao ca ct.
Biu thi gian (historigram) l biu th hin chui thi gian.
Cn bc ba (cube root): L gi tr khi nhn vi chnh n hai ln th bng vi gi tr
ban u.
Cn bc hai (square root) l gi tr khi nhn vi chnh n th bng ng gi tr ban u.
Cp s nhn (geometric progression) l mt dy s trong c mt t l chung
hoc khng i gia cc s hng lin k.
Ch s (index) l thc o nhng thay i trung bnh v gi tr (gi hoc s lng)
468
Thut ng
ca mt nhm mt hng qua thi gian. Mt ch s bao gm mt chui cc s
ch s.
Ch s c trng s c s (base weighted index): Xem Ch s Laspeyre.
Ch s gi (price index) o mc thay i theo thi gian gi tr bng tin ca mt
nhm cc phn t.
Ch s Laspeyre (Laspeyre indices) l ch s s dng trng s l thi k c s, do
i khi c gi l ch s (c quyn s l nm c s) c trng s c s.
Ch s lng (quantity index) cn gi l volume index (ch s khi lng) o mc
thay i trong cc gi tr phi tin t ca mt nhm cc phn t theo thi gian.
Ch s Paasche (Paasche indice) s dng cc trng s thi im hin ti, ni
cch khc trng s thay i theo tng thi im.
Ch s tng i (index relative) l tn gi mt loi ch s dng lm thc o s
thay i ca hng ha khc bit.
Chit khu (discounting) l nguyn tc c bn m nu mun c V GBP vo thi
im n nm sau , chng ta cn u t mt lng tin nht nh by gi (nm
0) vi li sut r% c c lng tin yu cu trong tng lai (nm th n).
Chui thi gian (time series) l dy s liu hoc gi tr c ghi chp theo thi gian.
C s d liu (database) l mt tp hp d liu c cu trc, vi mc trng lp
ti thiu, c s dng chung cho mi ngi trong h thng nhng khng ph
thuc vo cc chng trnh s dng d liu.
Cng vic o (dummy activity) c s dng trong phn tch s mng khi hai
cng vic c th bt u cng mt lc v cng kt thc cng mt lc. Cng vic
ny c biu din bng ng mi tn t on.
Dng nin kim (annuity) l mt khon thu nhp hoc chi tr c nh hng nm trong
mt s nm nht nh.
Dng nin kim vnh cu (perpetuity) l dng nin kim ko di mi mi, thay v dng
li n nm.
D n (project) l mt cng vic c im khi u v im kt thc, c thc hin
nhm p ng cc mc ch ra di cc rng buc v chi ph, lch trnh
v cht lng (theo Haynes, Qun tr d n).
D liu (data) ch n gin l mt thut ng khoa hc ch cc d kin thc t,
s liu, thng tin v gi tr o lng.
D liu s cp (primary data) c thu thp cho mc ch c th ca cc cuc iu
tra ang c tin hnh.
D liu th (raw data) l d liu s cp cha c x l, v d d liu ch l mt
danh sch cc con s.
D liu th cp (secondary data) l d liu c thu thp u , cho mt
mc ch no khc nhng c th c s dng cho cuc iu tra ang c
tin hnh.
469

dc (gradient) ca mt ng thng cho bit mc thay i gi tr ca y (tung
) nu x (honh ) tng thm 1 n v. th phng trnh tuyn tnh c
dc bng (y2-y1) / (x2-x1) trong (x1, y1) v (x2, y2) l hai im trn th.
lch (skewness) c trng cho tnh bt i xng ca ng cong phn phi
tn s.
lch chun (standard deviation) l cn bc hai ca phng sai.
lch trung bnh (mean deviation) l gi tr trung bnh ca phn chnh lch gia
cc gi tr trong mt phn phi vi trung bnh s hc.
th bn logarit (semi-logarithmic graph) l th c trc honh bnh thng vi
n v biu din l thi gian ( th c trc honh chun tc so vi thi im v
th) nhng cc khong bng nhau trn trc tung th hin mc thay i ca
cc bin vi t l nh nhau. V d, khong trn trc tung t y = 10 n y = 30
bng vi khong t y = 30 n y = 90 (c hai khong u th hin tng gp
ba ln).
ng gng (critical path) l ng i qua s mng vi tng thi gian thc hin
di nht.
Gi tr hin ti (present value) l lng tin phi u t by gi trong vng n nm vi
li sut r% thu v mt lng tin c th trong tng li ti thi im o hn.
Gi tr hin ti ca mt dng nin kim vnh cu (present value of a perpetuity) l
PV = a/r vi r l chi ph v vn biu din di dng h s t l.
Hng d tr bnh n (buffer stock) l hng tn kho an ton c lu tr phng
trng hp pht sinh nhu cu cao ngoi d kin. Ch s dng ti hng d tr
bnh n trong thi gian ch cung ng hng mi. Nu cu vt cung hoc vic
giao hng b chm tr th c th s dng hng d tr bnh n.
H chuyn gia (expert system) l chng trnh my tnh cho php ngi dng nhn
c li ch t tri thc, thng tin v t vn ca chuyn gia.
H s bin thin (coefficient of variation) so snh phn tn ca hai phn phi.
H s chn (intercept) l im ti mt ng thng giao vi trc tung.
H s tng quan (coefficient of correlation) o lng mc tng quan gia
hai bin s.
H s tng quan hng Spearman (Spearmans rank correlation coefficient): o
lng mi quan h tng quan gia hng hoc th bc ca hai bin.
H s tng quan m men tch (product moment correlation coefficient) Xem
H s tng quan.
H s tng quan Pearsonian (Pearsonian correlation coeffcient) Xem H s
tng quan.
H s xc nh (coefficient of determination) - vit tt l r2 hoc R2 - o lng t l
ca tng bin thin (thay i so vi gi tr trung bnh) trong gi tr ca bin s
ny, m c th c gii thch bng s bin thin trong gi tr ca bin s khc.
470
Thut ng
H thng h tr iu hnh (Executive Support System - ESS) tp hp d liu t
cc ngun ni b v bn ngoi, cung cp thng tin sn c cho cc nh qun tr
cp cao theo mt hnh thc d dng s dng.
H thng h tr ra quyt nh (Decision Support System - DSS) kt hp d liu
v m hnh phn tch hoc cng c phn tch d liu h tr vic ra cc quyt
nh bn cu trc v phi cu trc.
H thng hoch nh ngun lc sn xut (Manufacturing Resource Planning
- MRP II) l h thng m rng ca h thng hoch nh cc yu cu i vi
nguyn vt liu (MRP I) a ra mt phng php hoch nh v lp k
hoch ngun lc trong cc lnh vc khc nhau nh ti chnh, logistics, k
thut v marketing.
H thng hoch nh vi tnh ha (materials requirement planning) hay MRP I l
mt h thng vi tnh ha hoch nh cc yu cu i vi nguyn vt liu v
linh kin, cm chi tit, thnh phm.
H thng thng tin qun tr (Management Information Systems - MIS) C mt vi
nh ngha v h thng ny. V d, Khoa Cng ngh Tin hc ca Vin K ton
Qun tr Chuyn nghip Vng quc Anh nh ngha MIS l vic chuyn i
d liu t cc ngun bn trong v bn ngoi thnh thng tin, ng thi truyn
chng n cc nh qun l thuc mi cp bc di dng thch hp. H thng
ny gip nh qun l a ra quyt nh kp thi v hiu qu cho vic hoch
nh, ch o, kim sot cc hot ng h ph trch.
H thng t ng ha vn phng (Office Automation System - OAS) l h
thng my tnh c thit k tng nng sut ca nhn vin x l d liu
v thng tin.
Khai thc d liu (data mining) l phn tch mt lng ln d liu tm ra cc
mi quan h ( c nhn din di dng tim nng hoc cha tng c
bit) hng dn cho vic ra quyt nh v d on hnh vi trong tng lai.
Kho d liu (data warehouse) gm mt c s d liu, cha d liu c tp hp
t cc h thng vn hnh khc nhau, cng cc cng c bo co v truy vn
d liu.
Khong (range) l chnh lch gia quan st ln nht v quan st nh nht.
Khong t phn v (inter-quartile range) l chnh lch gia cc gi tr ca t phn
v trn v t phn v di; v vy n biu th khong cc gi tr ca na gia ca
tng th, c th l t phn v trn (Q3) - t phn v di (Q1).
Khung chn mu (sampling frame) l danh sch c nh s ca tt c phn t
trong tng th.
Ly mu (sampling) l qu trnh chn mt mu cc phn t t tng th.
Ly mu chp nhn (acceptance sampling) l phng php tip cn dung ha
gia khng iu tra v iu tra 100%.
Loi tr yu t ma v (deseasonalisation) l qu trnh loi b nhng thay i theo
ma khi cc d liu a ra s liu ch ra xu hng.
471

Logarit (logarithm) l ly tha m c s 10 cn phi nng ln bng mt s
xc nh.
Lng t hng (order quantity) l s n v hng ha trong mt n t hng. N
thng c c tnh vi mt s lng c nh.
Lng t hng kinh t (Economic Order Quantity - EOQ) l lng t hng ca
mt hng ha s ti thiu ha chi ph.
Ma trn (matrix) l mt dy hoc bng cc s hoc bin s.
Ma trn n v (unit matrix): Xem ma trn n v (identity matrix)
Ma trn khng (null matrix) l ma trn trong mi phn t u bng 0.
Ma trnn v (identity matrix - I) l ma trnvung c cc phn t nm trn ng
cho chnh u c gi tr l 1.
Mng extranet l mng intranet m nhng ngi bn ngoi c th truy cp.
Mng intranet l mng ni b c s dng chia s thng tin.
Mu ngu nhin (random sample) n gin l mu c chn theo cch m mi
phn t trong tng th u c c hi c chn ngang nhau.
Min kh thi (feasible area) l min trn th ca bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh,
trong tt c cc bt ng thc c tha mn.
M hnh cng (additive model) phn tch dy s thi gian gi nh rng cc thnh
phn ca dy s thi gian c lp vi nhau; v d, mt xu hng tng khng
nh hng n cc bin i theo ma.
M hnh nhn (multiplicative model) l m hnh dng phn tch chui thi gian biu
din mi s liu thc t ging nh mt thnh phn t l ca xu hng.
M hnh t l (proportional model): Xem m hnh nhn.
Mt (mode) l s bnh qun cho bit gi tr xut hin thng xuyn nht.
Mc t hng li (reorder level) l s n v hng cn li trong kho, ti cn t
mt n t hng mi.
Nghch o (reciprocal): Nghch o ca mt s bng 1 chia cho chnh s .
Phn mm nhm (groupware) l mt thut ng m t phn mm cung cp chc
nng cho cc nhm lm vic hp tc.
Phn mm x l vn bn (word processing software) c th gip bn s dng
my vi tnh to mt vn bn; lu tr, hin th vn bn trn mn hnh, hiu
chnh vn bn bng cch nhp cc lnh, k t t bn phm v in vn bn bng
my in.
Phn phi tn s (frequency distribution) (hoc bng tn s - frequency table)
ghi li s ln m mt gi tr xut hin.
Phn phi tch ly (cumulative distribution) (hoc bng tn s tch ly) c th
472
Thut ng
c dng ch tng s ln xut hin ca mt gi tr bn trn hoc bn di
mt gi tr nht nh.
Phn s (fractions) l th hin cc phn trong mt tng th.
Phn tch nhy (sensitivity analysis) l vic thay i cc bin quan trng nhm
xc nh nh hng ca thay i i vi kt qu d kin
Phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh (linear regression analysis) hay cn gi l Phng
php bnh phng nh nht (least squares method) l phng php c
lng phng trnh ng xu th.
Phn tch s mng (network analysis) v c bn l phng php cp n
vic trin khai cc ngun lc sn c nhm hon thnh mt cng vic phc tp.
Phn v (quantile) l thut ng tng hp ca im t phn v, thp phn v, bch
phn v v bt k im phn chia tng t no khc phn tch phn phi
tn s.
Php ngoi suy (extrapolation) l s m rng (tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn tnh) d
on v tng lai ca cc mi quan h trc .
Phng php nh gi v tng kt d n (Project Evaluation and Review Technique - PERT) l mt dng phn tch s mng c xt ti s khng chc chn.
Phng php th phn tn (scattergraph method) l phng php v cc cp
d liu cho hai bin s lin quan trn cng mt th xy dng mt th
phn tn, sau s dng php phn tch v mt ng xu th ph hp
nht vi cc d liu.
Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (Net Present Value - NPV) quy v gi tr hin ti
tt c cc khon thu chi lin quan n d n u t theo mt t sut hon vn
xc nh, sau xc nh tng gi tr hin ti rng. Nu gi tr ny dng, d n
u t c xem l c th chp nhn. Nu gi tr ny m, d n u t c
xem l khng th chp nhn.
Phng php k khai hng tn kho thng xuyn (perpetual inventory) yu cu
phi bit c mc hng tn kho ca tt c mt hng mi thi im. Mt h
s lu gi tt c cc chng t gm bin lai, ha n xut hng v bng cn
i hng tn kho.
Phng php kim k lin tc (continuous stocktaking) lng tn kho ca cc
mt hng c kim tra hng ngy hoc thng xuyn v c i chiu vi
th kho. Mi mt hng c kim tra t nht mt ln mt nm; bt k sai lch
no s c pht hin v chnh sa ngay.
Phng php t sut hon vn ni b ca dng tin chit khu (Internal rate of
return (IRR) method of discounted cash flow) l phng php xc nh li
sut (t sut hon vn ni b) m ti NPV bng 0. Bi vy, t sut hon vn
ni b l t sut hon vn ca vn u t.
Phng sai (variance) l gi tr trung bnh ca bnh phng lch gia mi gi tr
trong phn phi vi gi tr trung bnh.
473

Phng trnh (equation) l mt biu thc th hin mi quan h gia cc bin.
Phng trnh bc hai (quadratic equation) l loi phng trnh phi tuyn trong
mt bin thay i theo bnh phng (ly tha bc hai) ca bin khc.
Phng trnh phi tuyn tnh (non-linear equation) l phng trnh trong mt
bin bin i theo ly tha bc n ca mt bin khc, vi n>1.
Phng trnh tuyn tnh (linear equation) l phng trnh c dng y = a + bx.
Pivot table l mt bng tng tc tng hp v phn tch d liu t cc danh sch
v bng biu.
Qun tr tri thc (knowledge management) l qu trnh thu thp, lu tr v s dng
tri thc trong mt t chc.
Ri ro khng c hng bn (stockout) pht sinh khi c mt yu cu i vi mt
loi hng ha, nhng ca hng hoc kho ang tm ht.
S d (residual) l chnh lch gia kt qu thc t v kt qu d on (cho mt
khong thi gian trong qu kh m chng ta c d liu) bng ng xu
hng c iu chnh i vi bin i theo ma.
S nguyn (integer) l mt s khng c phn thp phn, c th c gi tr m
hoc dng.
S trung bnh trt (moving average) l gi tr trung bnh lin tip ca cc kt qu
trong mt s khong thi gian c nh.
S tng quan (correlation) cc bin c gi l c s tng quan khi m gi tr
ca mt bin c lin quan ti gi tr ca bin khc.
Tn s (frequency) l s ln xut hin ca mt gi tr.
Thi gian hon vn (payback period) l s nm cn thit dng tin vo t mt
d n u t vn cn bng vi dng tin ra.
Thi gian thc hin n hng (lead time) l thi gian gia thi im t n hng
tn kho v thi im nhn hng. V vy, thi gian thc hin n hng hai thng
c ngha l s mt hai thng t thi im t n hng cho n thi im hng
c giao.
Thuc tnh (attribute) l c tnh m mt i tng c hoc khng c.
T hp (combination) l mt tp hp phn t c la chn t mt tp hp phn
t ln hn, bt k chng c la chn theo th t no.
Tng iu tra (census) l cuc iu tra p dng cho ton tng th.
Tri thc (knowledge) l thng tin cha trong tr tu ca con ngi.
Trung bnh s hc (arithmetic mean) c tnh bng cch ly tng gi tr cc phn
t chia cho s phn t. Trung bnh cng ca bin x l x (x ngang).
Trung v (median) l gi tr gia ca mt phn phi, khi tt c cc phn t c
sp xp theo th t ln.
474
Thut ng
Tng quan m (negative correlation) xy ra khi gi tr nh ca bin ny c xu
hng kt hp vi gi tr ln ca bin khc v gi tr ln ca bin ny c xu
hng kt hp vi gi tr nh ca bin khc.
Tng quan dng (positive correlation) xy ra khi gi tr nh ca bin ny c xu
hng kt hp vi gi tr nh ca bin khc v gi tr ln ca bin ny c xu
hng kt hp vi gi tr ln ca bin khc.
T l phn trm (percentage) ch ra ln hoc t l tng i ca mt phn t.
Vect (vector): Mt bng cc con s hoc bin s ch c mt hng hoc mt ct.
Xu hng (trend) l s thay i c bn di hn theo thi gian trong cc gi tr c
ghi chp.
475
I NT V FPT POLYTECHNIC
Thnh lp thng 07/2010, FPT Polytechnic thuc i hc FPT, o to H Cao ng thc
hnh v cp bng Cao ng ngh theo Quyt nh ca Tng cc dy ngh.
S MNH
FPT Polytechnic ra i vi s mnh cung cp dch v o to tt trn cc tiu ch: ph hp
vi nng lc hc tp ca sinh vin; p ng nhu cu ln ca doanh nghip; v cung cp dch
v o to chun mc da trn cc chun c cng nhn.
Ph hp vi nng lc hc tp ca sinh vin
Tt c sinh vin u c quyn hc tp v c quyn c cung cp mt hc vn, k nng
ph hp vi nng lc. FPT Polytechnic cung cp mt chng trnh hc tp thin v
thc hnh vi mc tiu ch cn sinh vin chm ch, c thc hc hi, cu tin th s
p ng c nhu cu vic lm ca doanh nghip.
p ng nhu cu ln ca doanh nghip
Cc chuyn ngnh o to ca FPT Polytechnic u nhm ti nhu cu x hi ln. Vi
nhn nh Vit Nam c hng trm nghn doanh nghip, mi doanh nghip u cn
c nhn vin k ton, nhn vin tip th v bn hng. Cc doanh nghip u cn c
website qung b sn phm v giao dch do u cn mt nhn vin thit k, qun tr
website. Ngoi ra, doanh nghip c h thng my tnh u cn nhn vin xy dng
cc ng dng hu ch v m bo h thng c vn hnh hiu qu.
Cung cp dch v o to chun mc
Chng trnh o to ca FPT Polytechnic tun theo chun khung chng trnh ca
BTEC, Vng quc Anh. Sch gio trnh, ti liu hc tp c chuyn ng sang Ting
Vit t cc b sch uy tn ca cc Nh xut bn ln trn th gii nh Pearson, Cengage,
McGraw-Hill, Hc liu c cc cn b c uy tn ca Trng i hc FPT thit k,
bin tp v chuyn ti trn vic p dng h thng cng ngh thng tin.
TRIT L O TO
FPT Polytechnic p dng trit l o to Thc hc Thc nghip vi vic coi ngi hc
nh l nhn vin. Tri nghim hc tp s c coi nh tri nghim lm vic nhm gip cho
doanh nghip lm quen c vi cng vic thc tin v phng php gii quyt vn da
trn cng vic. Phng php o to qua d n project based training s a cc yu cu
thc t ca cng vic truyn t di dng d n giao cho sinh vin. Vic k lut hc tp cng
c p dng cht ch cng vi cc kha o to k nng mm nhm m bo sinh vin ra
trng c c thc cng nh k nng mm trong cng vic.
CHIN LC TRONG VIC PHT TRIN GIO TRNH
Hin nay FPT Polytechnic c bn quyn dch v pht hnh nhiu b sch gio trnh cho
cc chuyn ngnh lin quan n Cng ngh thng tin, K ton v Qun tr kinh doanh.
Ngoi ra, FPT Polytechnic cng pht trin cc gi hc liu cho cc gio trnh ny. FPT
Polytechnic sn sng chia s v cng pht trin gio trnh, ti liu cung cp cht lng o
to tt hn cho sinh vin Vit Nam.
XIN VUI LNG LIN H

Vn phng FPT Polytechnic Vit Nam
a ch: Ta nh FPT Polytechnic, ng Hm Nghi,
KT M nh I, T Lim, H Ni
in thoi: (04) 7 305 9886 - (04) 7 308 0898
Email: caodang@fpt.edu.vn
C s ti H Ni
a ch: Tng 1, Nh F, Ta nh Vit c,
KT M nh I, T Lim, H Ni
in thoi: (04) 8 582 0808 - (04) 6 287 1911
Email: caodangfpt.hn@fpt.edu.vn
C s ti Qung Ninh
a ch: Vn o, Bi Chy, tp. H Long, Qung Ninh
in thoi: (033) 351 2233
Email: caodangfpt.qn@fpt.edu.vn
C s ti Thanh Ha
a ch: 272 Ph Mi, phng Qung Tm,
tp. Thanh Ha, tnh Thanh Ha
in thoi: (037) 367 8686
Email: caodangfpt.th@fpt.edu.vn
C s ti Nng
a ch: 137 Nguyn Th Thp, phng Ha Minh,
q. Lin Chiu, tp. Nng
in thoi: (0511) 3 710 999
Email: caodangfpt.dn@fpt.edu.vn
C s ti Ty Nguyn
S 164 Phan Chu Trinh, phng Tn Li,
tp. Bun Ma Thut, tnh k Lk
in thoi: (0500) 355 5678 - Fax: (0500) 355 6996
Email: caodangfpt.daklak@fpt.edu.vn
C s ti TP. H Ch Minh
a ch: 391A Nam K Khi Ngha, q. 3, tp. HCM
in thoi: (08) 3526 8799
Email: caodangfpt.hcm@fpt.edu.vn
NH XUT BN KHOA HC V K THtUT
NH XUT BN KHOA HC V K THUT

70 Trn Hng o, Hon Kim, H Ni
T: P. TC - HC: 04 3942 3172; TT. Pht hnh: 04 3822 0686
Ban Bin tp: 04 3942 1132 04 3942 3171
FAX: 04 3822 0658 - Website: http://www.nxbkhkt.com.vn
Email: nxbkhkt@hn.vnn.vn
CHI NHNH NH XUT BN KHOA HC V K THUT
28 ng Khi Qun 1 - TP. H Ch Minh. T: 08 3822 5062
BPP Learning Media

PHN TCH V RA QUYT NH KINH DOANH
Dch, hiu nh
Chu trch nhim xut bn
Bin tp
V ba
Trng i hc FPT
PHM NGC KHI
Ng Th Mn
Trng i hc FPT
In 1000 bn, kh 19 x 27 cm ti Cng ty c phn In v Thng mi PRIMA

S ng k KHXB s: 959 - 2013/CXB/16 - 72/KHKT
Quyt nh xut bn s: 137/QXB-NXBKHKT ngy 06 thng 9 nm 2013.
In xong v np lu chiu Qu IV nm 2013.
FPT Polytechnic Vit Nam
To nh FPT Polytechnic, ng Hm Nghi, Khu th M nh I, H Ni

in thoi: (04) 7 305 9886 (04) 7 308 0898
Email: caodang@fpt.edu.vn
H Ni
Tng 1, Nh F, Ta nh Vit c (VAS),
Khu th M nh I, H Ni
Nng
137, Nguyn Th Thp, Phng Ha
Minh, Qun Lin Chiu, Nng
Thanh Ha
272 Ph Mi, Qung Tm,TP. Thanh Ha,
Tnh Thanh Ha
TP. H Ch Minh
391A Nam K Khi Ngha, Qun 3, TP.
H Ch Minh
Qung Ninh
Vn o, Bi Chy,TP. H Long, Tnh
Qung Ninh
k Lk
164 Phan Chu Trinh, P. Tn Li, TP. Bun
Ma Thut, Tnh k Lk

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Phn tch v

ra quyt nh kinh doanh

Business Decision Making

BPP Learning Media

Phin bn sch ny bao gm:

Cc ch chnh lin quan n mn hc.

NH XUT BN KHOA HC V K THtUT

Ta: Phn tch v ra quyt nh kinh doanh

Original Title: Business Decision Making

Lin h hp tc v ni dung bn dch ting Vit v phn phi:

Phn B: Cc phng php phn tch d liu........................ 71

Phn C: Trnh by thng tin vi cc nh dng thch hp.....199

Phn D: Phn mm to thng tin.......................................... 291

Phn B: Cc phng php phn tch d liu .......................... 71

Chng 3: phn tn v lch ................................................................... 117

Chng 4: S tng quan v hi quy ............................................................... 145

S tng quan................................................................................. 146

Chng 5: Phn tch chui thi gian ................................................................ 171

Cc thnh phn ca chui thi gian................................................. 172

Phn C: Trnh by thng tin vi cc nh dng thch hp .... 199

S dng bng tnh............................................................................ 202

Cng thc v hm s trong bng tnh.............................................. 207

Chng 7: Bo co ............................................................................................. 249

Vit bo co...................................................................................... 250

Phn D: Phn mm to thng tin.......................................... 291

Cc yu cu thng tin ca t chc................................................... 294

Chng 9: Qun l hng tn kho...................................................................... 321

Mc ch ca qun l hng tn kho.................................................. 322

Chng 10: Cc cng c v phng php qun tr d n............................... 363

Qun tr d n................................................................................... 364

Chng 11: Thm nh u t ..........................................................................415

Thm nh u t.............................................................................. 416

Gii thiu chung

Gii thiu chung

Cc ch chuyn su, thit yu cn c trong phm vi mn hc thuc

Nhiu bi tp thc hnh, cu hi n tp v ch tho lun gip sinh vin

Cc v d minh ha thc t v bi tp tnh hung c cp nht, mang li

Danh mc thut ng y , thun li cho vic n tp kin thc.

Ngoi ra, ni dung ca mi chng c sp xp chun theo Ti liu hng dn

Phn gii thiu v lit k cc mc tiu hc tp c th.

Tng kt chng, cu hi n tp i km p n, cng vi l phn p n bi

S tm tt v k hiu ch dn gip nh hng ngi hc v kin thc c

Gii thiu chung

Qun tr Ti chnh doanh nghip

Phn tch v ra quyt nh kinh doanh

Chin lc v k hoch kinh doanh

Cc gio trnh thuc hc phn chuyn ngnh t chn:

Kim ton ti chnh

Qun tr doanh nghip

Qun tr thng tin, tri thc v hot ng truyn thng trong

Qung co v truyn thng trong kinh doanh

Qun tr hot ng bn hng

* Ghi ch: Mt s ta khc trong b gio trnh gc Business Essentials cha ph

Hng dn hc vi gio trnh

Hng dn hc vi gio trnh

V d: Lin h nhng g bn hc vi thc t. Ngi hc hy c

Mi trang u c l sch tng i rng v cui mi chng u c mt s

Thu thp d liu

Phn tch v ra quyt nh kinh doanh

Thu thp d liu

1.2 Thuc tnh v bin

Chng 1: Thu thp v lu tr d liu

Xem xt cc cuc kho st sau y v xc nh mi cuc kho st ny thu thp d

1.3 Cc ngun d liu