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Citation for published version (APA):
Bollen, M. H. J. (1993). Literature search for reliability data of components in electric distribution networks. (EUT
report. E, Fac. of Electrical Engineering; Vol. 93-E-276). Technische Universiteit Eindhoven.
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M.H.J. Bollen
ISBN 90-6144-276-1
August 1993
Eindhoven University of Technology Research Reports
by
M.H.J. Bollen
Eindhoven
August 1993
CIP-DATA KONINKLlJKE BIBLIOTHEEK, DEN HAAG
Bollen, M.H.J.
This report gives the result of a literature search for component lifetimes for use in
reliability studies of distribution networks. Data are given for power transformers, circuit
breakers and switches, protective equipment, fuses, voltage and current transformers,
generators, "uninterruptable" power supplies, cables and acessories, busbars and large
motors. For each chapter the available lifetime data is divided into recommended values,
data from surveys, data used in reliability studies and ageing data. Also data for duration
of the restore are given. Each chapter results in lifetime values that appear to be
reasonable.
Bollen, M.H.J.
LITERATURE SEARCH FOR RELIABILITY DATA OF COMPONENTS IN ELECTRIC
DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS.
Eindhoven: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, 1993.
EUT Report 93-E-276
M.H.J. Bollen
University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technolgy
Department of Electrical Engineering
P.O. Box 88
Manchester M60 1aD
United Kingdom
iii
CONTENTS OF THIS REPORT
pag
1. Introduction 1
1.1. Aim and contents of this report 1
1.2. Terms used in this report 2
1.3. Conclusions 3
2. Power transformers 4
2.1. Recommended values 4
2.2. Data from surveys 6
2.3. Data used in reliability studies 11
2.4. Ageing data 16
2.5. Conclusions 19
5. Fuses 60
5.1. Recommended values 60
5.2. Data from surveys 61
5.3. Data used in reliability studies 62
5.4. Ageing data 63
5.5. Conclusions 64
7. Generators 70
7.1. Recommended values 70
7.2. Data from surveys 71
7.3. Data used in reliability studies 78
7.4. Ageing data 81
7.5. Conclusions 84
iv
pag
v
1. INTRODUCTION
This report is the result of an extensive literature search after failure data of components
in distribution systems. It started as part of a project aimed at the incorporation of
reliability aspects in the design of industrial power systems. During the execution of this
project it felt that there was a lack of data on failure rates (lifetimes) of industrial power
system components. It was then decided to perfrom this literature search after
component reliability data.
This report is divided in 10 more chapters, each dealing with one type of power system
components. Every chapter is further divided into five sections: recommended values;
data from surveys; data about ageing; conclusions. Within each of these sections the
references are sorted to year of publication.
Not much information has been found on ageing of components. I therefore present the
available information without drawing any conclusions. Also on repair and replace times
no conclusions are given. These times are too much dependent on the specific situation
to give recommended values. Furthermore, they can easily be assessed in an industrial
environment, so there is less need for recommended values. I do however present the
available data. These interested are able to draw there own conclusions.
-1- Introduction
1.2. Terms used in this report
In this report the ETTF (Expected Time To Failure) has been used to describe the failure
behaviour of a component. For surveys it has been defined as
ETTF = #components * #years (1 )
#failures
It is related to the failure rate A through
(2)
An ETTF of 1000 years thus does not mean that this kind of component is expected to
last a thousand years but that each year 1%0 of the population will fail during the next
few years (20 or 30 at most).
From a survey the ETTF can never be determined exactly. Where possible a confidence
interval has been given in this report. The 95% confidence interval (designated as c.L)
is approximated through the following expression (for a survey finding n failures in a
population of N component-years):
.
c. ~. =
[N
n+2*/Ii'
N]
n-2*/Ii .
(3)
The repair proces is described through the term "repair time" which refers to the
expected repair time which is again, in case of survey, an average repair time. No
confidence interval is given for the repair time. The values should however be used with
the same caution as the ETTF-values.
For some recommeded values the authors gave a range of values [e.g. IEEE, 1983;
Kloeppel et al., 1990]. This is either a spread in the value for different locations and/or
circumstances or a measure of the uncertainty in the recommended value. As it needs
not to be the same as a confidence interval, the original term "range" has been used in
this report.
Some authors distinguish between active and passive failures. The followingm definition
for this is given by Billinton and Allan [1984].
A passive event is a component failure mode that does not cause operation of protection
breakers and therefore does not have an impact on the remaining healthy components.
Service is restored by repairing or replacing the failed component. Examples are open
circuits and inadvertent opening of breakers.
An active event is a component failure mode that causes the operation of the primary
protection zone around the failed component and can therefore cause the removal of
other healthy components and branches from service.
I often took over the terms as used by the authors of the papers I refere to. This causes
a non-standard use of vocabulary. I hope the reader will except this. It is for instance not
always clear what an author means with repair time. Is it the time needed to repair a
component, or the time needed to restore the service. It the latter case switching time
or replacement time seem more appropriate terms. In case the latter terms were used
I took them over.
-2- Introduction
1.3. Conclusions
From the data found during this survey I would suggest the following ETTF values for
components in distribution networks. For the reasoning behind these values, please refer
to the corresponding chapters further on in this report.
-3- Introduction
2. POWER TRANSFORMERS
2.1.1. Green and Bourne [1972) give average component failure-rates for electrical
components. For power transformers they give:
2.1.2. IEEE standard 500 [lEEE,1983) gives reliability data for components of nuclear-
power stations. The data has been derived by a Delphi-method combined with the results
from several surveys and data bases.
For station service transformers the following data are, recommended (for catastrophic
failures only)
For substation transformers the following data are recommended (catastrophic failures
only)
2.1.3. Kloeppel et al. [1990) present recommended values of component data for
reliability studies. They were based on data from several industries in Eastern Germany
as well as form the public supply. For transformers the following data are recommended:
2.1.4. The IEEE gold book [lEEE,1990) gives recommended values for the components
of industrial and commercial power systems. For power transformers it recommends:
rated power between 300 and 10,000 kVA: ETTF = 169 year
These values are based on the results of the 1979 IEEE survey [Aquilino, 1980). This
survey is further discussed in Section 2.2.5.
2.2.1. Dickinson (1962) reports on an AlEE survey undertaken in 1959. Responses were
recieved from 33 compagnies, covering 85 plants. For power transformers the results
are:
2.2.2. Todd [1964) gives outage rates for transmission and distribution facilities derived
from 5 - 11 years experience at Indianapolis Power & Light Company.
138/34.5 kV transformers:
ETTF = 70 years;
outage duration exceeding 4 hours in all cases;
time of occurrence between 7 AM and 6 PM in all cases.
34.5/4.1 kV transformers:
ETTF = 180 years;
outage duration less than 2 hours :20%
2 - 4 hours :30%
exceeding 4 hours : 50%
time of occurence 7 AM to 6 PM :80%
6 PM to 10 PM : 20%
2.2.3. Connor and Parkins [1966) report about a 14-year survey of faults in networks
with nominal voltages between 2 and 33 kV. The results for transformers (excluding
lightning) are shown in the table below. Table 1 gives failure rates per 100 transformers
per year.
Table 1: failure rate per 100 transformers per year according to a 14-year survey
reported by Connor and Parkins {1966]
The last four columns give: the industry average anf the plant average of the actual
downtime per failure and the average estimated time to fix the failure during 24 hours
work day in case of repair of the failed component and in case of replace with a spare.
2.2.5. The IEEE performed another survey after failures of power transformers in
industrial plants and commercial buildings in 1979 [Aquilino, 1980, 19831. Table 3 gives
the results for liquid filled power transformers and rectifier transformers.
For power transformers the number of failures was high enough (about 100) to justify
a further subdivision of the failures.
2.2.7. One ofthe Dutch regional electricity authorities, N. V. PNEM, performed a survey
after the reliability of power system components in their 10 kV network, covering the
period 1980 - 1986 [van Amelsfoort et.al, 1986].
For 10 kV/380 V transformers the survey resulted in:
2.2.8. Waumans [1986] presents the result of failure registration in a number of medium
and low-voltage networks in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1984. For transformers
(apparently MV/LVI he gives:
2.2.9. A survey performed by the Dutch utilities [VDEN,1987] results in the following
values for 10kV/400 Volt transformers:
2.2.11. Franke [1990] observed during 12 years, failures in a chemical plant in Eastern
Germany. Early failures in the wear-in phase (1.5 ... 2 years) have been removed from the
data. For MV/LV transformers up to 1.6 MVA he reports:
2.2.12. Bovy et al. [1991] analysed the outage occurances in some 4000 km of
underground 10 kV network during 6 years. For transformer stations they found:
2.2.13. Bruggeman et al. [1991] present some statistics about various types of
transformer faults from British utilities. They divide the faults by the place of occurence.
Their results for ground-mounted, cable-connected distribution transformers are given
Table 5.
cOO1)Onent where the faut t occured failure rate per 1000 unit.vr ETTF (vr)
cable tenminations 0.69 1 450
other external connections 0.13 7700
windings and comections 0.52 1 900
tanks radiators etc. 0.15 6,700
(mostly corrOSion)
taa-changers: mechanical 0.06 17 000
tap-changers: eLectrical 0.008 12 500
other sites mostly accessories 0.08 12 500
'Ilknown 0.14 7 000
all c ts 1.778 550
2.2.14. Verplanke [1991] studied failures that occured in the power system of a
chemical industry in The Netherlands between 1970 and 1991. For 50 kV/11 kV
transformers he reports
2.3.1. Dickinson [1957] gives for transformers in an industrial power system a typical
value of
2.3.2. Dickinson [1960] uses the following values for power distribution systems for
refinery process units. These are based on several published papers and on service
reports obtained from refineries. For transformers he uses:
2.3.6. Lonsdale and Hitchen [1977) use the following value for transformers 33/11 kV
and 33/6.6 kV in a public distribution network in the Northwest of England. Data were
based on an examination of system performance over recent years.
2.3.7. McNab [1977] uses the following values for 33/11 kV transformers in a public
distribution network in the South of Scotland:
2.3.9. Allan, Dialynas and Homer (1979) use the following values for 33/11 kV
transformers in a reliability study of a distribution system:
2.3.11. Nelson and Johnson [1982) compare three distribution voltages for the power
supply to a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant. They use the following reliability
data (based on 1974 IEEE survey and other available data) for power transformers:
2.3.12. Koval [1983) uses for a 50 MVA transformer in an industrial power system:
ETTF = 85 years;
replacement time = 168 hours;
restoration time = 12.0 hours.
2.3.13. Williams and Mudge [1983) use values drawn from distribution system
statistics. For failures of a 33/11 kV transformer they use:
2.3.14. Sillinton and Goel [1986) use the following data for 25 kVA, 14.4 kV/240 V
pad-mounted transformers in the reliability analysis of an existing 14.4 kV distribution
network in Saskatchewan, Canada:
2.3.15. Dialynas and Allan [1986] use for 33/11 kV transformers, when including local
generating facilities in the reliability evaluation of power distribution systems.
mechanical failures
ETTF = 130 years; repair time = 12 hours
2.3.17. Billinton (1987) uses for 14.4 kV/LV transformers in the Anaheim distribution
system of the Saskatchewan Power Corporation the following data:
2.3.18. Dialynas and Allan [1987] describe a reliability model for a power distribution
network with local generation.
For transformers 33 kV/11 kV they use:
2.3.19. Goldberg et al. (1987) use the following values for distribution transformers:
The transformers present in the system under study are 150/20 kV transformers.
2.3.22. Dialynas and Papadopoulos (1989) have determined the reliability of a. "typical"
20 kV rural distribution system in Greece. For a 150kv/20kV transformer they use:
ETTF = 25 years.
2.3.23. Fransen [1989] uses, in a reliability study of an industrial supply, for short-
circuits in transformers a value of
The transformers under study were mainly 30 kV/10 kVand 10 kV/ 2 kV.
2.3.24. Roos [1989] compares the supply reliability for different configurations of
medium-voltage power systems. For independent failure of HV /LV transformers he uses
the following values:
2.3.28. Duke et al. [1989] assess the reliability of an industrial distribution system. For
66/11 kV transformers they use:
2.3.29. Allan and Inga-Rojas [1990] describe a method for distribution system reliability.
In an example they use for transformers:
ETTF = 9 years
2.3.30. Sallam et al. [1990] calculate, as an example, reliability indices for the MV-
network of Port-Fouad, Egypt. They have used the following data for power
transformers:
2.3.31. Mohan Rao and Sekhar [1990] compare the reliability of a number of distribution
systems. They use the following values for 13.8 kV/480 Volt transformers:
ETTF = 300 years; repair time = 342 hours
2.3.33. Dialynas and Koskolos [1991] determine the reliability performance of industrial
power systems. They study an existing industrial system in Greece. For transformer
failures they use the following values:
The transformers present in their study are 20 kVI 6.6 kV 10 MVA, 20 kV/ 380 V 1.6
MVA, and 6.6 kV/380 V 1.25 MVA.
2.3.34. Prescott et al. [1991] use the following values for the failure of a distribution
transformer:
2.3.36. Kj"lIe and Sand [1991] use the following values for transformers in distribution
systems in Norway:
2.4.1. Parascos and Arceri (1976) present bathtub curves for underground network
transformers. Only "internal winding failures" have been taken into account. The resultys
are shown in Figure 1. The numbers with the curves show the production years. Newer
types show less wear-out but
(relatively) more wear-in.
0.3 ,
I
/
\
Figure 2 shows the results for "heavy \,
tank corrosion requiring removal". As \
\
expected. only a wear-out phase is
visible.
...
w 0.2
\ \
\
1939-1952
"'"w
.,'"
~
~
~
"z"
z
ae 0.1
1953·1962
2 , 6 B 10 12 14 16
AGE OF EQUIPMENT (YEARS)
0.40
...
w
~ 0.30
w
'"
~
~
;;
~ 0.20
'z"
~
z
..
" 0.10
5 10 1S 20 25 30 35 40
AGE OF EQUIPMENT (YEARS)
2.4.4. Bar et al. [1990) use a Delphi-method to determine the position of the knee in the
bath-tube curve, i.e. the place where ageing starts to become important.
2.4.5. Ducket and McDonough [1990) have performed a study after the ageing of
transformers. During 5 years they have observed the failure behaviour of a population
with a known age structure. The data has been provided by California, Power and Light.
Over 8600 events of failure, which resulted in pole type transformers being removed
from the system and scrapped, occured during the years 1984 through 1988. These
units were purchased from a single supplier between the years 1947 and 1988.
The information available is: the number of transformers purchased for each year
between 1947 and 1988; the number of failures for each year between 1984 and 1988.
From this information an estimation is made of the failure rate as a function of time. The
result is shown in Figure 3.
100
10
0.1L---~-----L----~--~~--~----~
o 5 10 15 20 25 30
Yee,.
For the first 5 years the failure rates are fairly accurate and can be assumed constant.
This leads to a value of:
I slightly changed the data of Ducket and McDonough [1990]. The number of failures
for the first year of operation has been doubled. For the first year they give a failure rate
of 0.423 % whereas the failure rate for the years 2 through 6 is around 1 %. As
transformers are put into operation the whole year through, but the counting of failures
stops at the end of the year, the first year of operation is on the average just half a year.
2.4.6. Horton et al. [1990] provide estimates of failure rates of underground distribution
system components. The estimates are based on information collected from a number
of utility sources throughout the United States of America. For each component and
each year they used the number of units installed or removed and the number of failures
which occured. This data has been fitted to a Weibull distribution.
From over 88,000 single-phase pad-mounted transformers installed by the NELPA
(Northwest Electric Light & Power Association) utilities between 1968 and 1988 they
find a constant failure rate:
Table 10 and Table 11 summarize the data on transformer life time given in this chapter.
Table 10 gives recommended data from surveys, where Table 11 gives data used in
reliability studies. A distinction has been made between MV/LV transformers (e.g.
10kV/400V). MV/MV transformers (e.g. 33/11 kV) and HV/MV transformers (e.g.
150/10kV).
Tab/e 10: Summary of transformer life times: recommended values and data from
surveys_
Most surveys result in an ETTF value in the order of 500 years for MV/LV transformers.
Deviations from this value are given by: Green and 80urbe [1972] (data from the 60's
7); Kloeppel et al. [1990] (data from Eastern Germany 7); Dickinson [1960] (data from
the 50's 7); and by Franke [1990] (data from Eastern Germany 7). Values around 500
years are also used in most of the reliability studies. Values below 100 years can clearly
be described as non-realistic. From the surveys a clear increase in reliability is visible in
the course of time: from about 100 years in the 50's to over 500 years for the latest
surveys. Improved manufacturing and maintenance clearly are fruitfull.
HV/MV transformers are even less reliable than MV/MV transformers, with lifetimes
between 25 and 30 years. Some reliability studies however use lifetimes up to 330
years. These values are certainly not realistic.
MV/MV as well as HV/MV transformers become somewhat better during the years, due
From the data presented in this chapter I would suggest the values given in Table 12.
Table 11: Summary of transformer life times: data used in reliability studies.
3.1.1. Green and Bourne [1972] give average component failure rates for electrical
components. For circuit-breakers they give:
3.1.2. The IEEE gold book [IEEE. 1990] recommends the ETTF-values given in Table 13.
all values are in years:
o - 600 V
All All 'vee. 0-600A 600 A + 600 V +
Fixed circuit breaker 192 240 285 105 57
Metal-clad circuit breaker 330 370 430 330 280
motor starter 72 65
enclosed disconnect switch 165
Table 13: recommended values (ETTF in years) according to the IEEE gold book.
3.1.3. Kloeppel et al. [1990] present recommended values of component data for
reliability studies. They were based on data from several industries in Eastern Germany
as well as from the public supply. For circuit-breakers the following values are
recommended:
3.2.1. Dickinson (1962) reports on an AlEE Survey undertaken in 1959. Responses were
received from 33 compagnies, covering 85 plants. For circuit breakers the results are:
3.2.2. Connor and Parkins (1966) report about a 14-year survey of failures in networks
with nominal voltages between 2 and 33 kV. The results for switchgear are given below.
The number of switchgear units in service has increased from 12,000 in 1951 to 23,000
in 1965. The authors note that the fault incidence of switchgear of all voltage has
remained practically constant over the period under consideration. The manufacture of
smaller units, to reduce costs, appears to be cancelled out by improving materials and
manufacturing techniques.
3.2.3. Selseth [19721 presents results from a survey of outage records at the Norwegian
State Power System, over the period 1967-1970. The survey covered a population of
2,479 circuit-breaker years. The following results are derived for circuit breakers:
ETTF = 25 years; c.i. = <20,30>
The last four columns give the industry average and the plant average of the actual
down time per failure and the average estimated time to fix the failure during 24 hour
work day in case of repair of the failed component and in case of replace with a spare.
3.2.5. Lonsdale and Hitchen [1977] give the following data based on an examination of
system performence over recent years:
reoair time
vol tOQe ETTF c.i. average modi ...
63·100kY 250 yr <200 300. 29 hrs 5 hr.
100·200kY 60 yr <55 70> 95 hrs 12 hrs
200-300kY 40 yr <35 45. 60 hr. 11 hr.
300-500kY 22 yr <19 25,. B4 hr. l' hra
>500kY 10 yr <8 12' 142 hr. 27 hr.
Table 15: Results for major failures, according to Cigre survey [Heising, 1986J_
The data below holds for the voltage range from 63 to 100 kV. The data for other
voltage classes is too far away from our area of interest.
The repair time has been defined as the time required to get to site, analyse the failure,
obtain spare parts, repair and return the circuit-breaker to service, excluding deliberate
delays.
Table 16_- Results for minor failures, according to Cigre survey [Heising, 19861_
major failures
in service : 90 %
during maintenance :5 %
minor failures
in service : 70 %
during maintenance : 25 %
For the major failure "internal or external breakdown" the following values are derived
from the survey results:
This value has been based on field experience between November 1971 and January
1982.
3.2.8. Waumans (1986) presents the result of failure registration in a number of medium
and low-voltage networks in the Netherlands, from 1979 to 1984. For MV circuit-
breakers he gives:
3.2.9. One of the Dutch regional electricity authorities, N.V. PNEM, performed a survey
after the reliability of power system components in their 10 kV network, covering the
period 1980 - 1986 [van Amelsfoort et aI., 1986). For circuit breakers the survey
resulted in:
3.2.10. Stanek and Venkata (1988) compare failure rates of equipment in four different
coal mines. For "molded-case circuit breakers 400-A frame size" they report:
The authors conclude that these failure rates are one to three orders of manitude higher
than those of similar devices in other industries.
3.2.11. Norris (1989) reports on an IEEE survey conducted in 1985 on the reliability of
circuit breakers in industrial and commercial installation. Due to the low number of
responses, 13 plant location, detailled analysis was useless. The results are summarized
below:
For increasing rated voltages the time-to-failure of the circuit breakers decreased
considerably where as the repair time increases. The non-availability increases from
0.006 % for low-voltage breakers to 4 % for 345 kV breakers.
For air-magnetic breakers the ETIF is about equal for low-voltages and medium-voltages
despite the far greater amount of operations for medium-voltage breakers.
3.2.12. Radwan and EI-Marsafawy [1990] present failure data for MV circuit-breakers
collected from 1980 to 1984 in the Upper Egypt Zone of the Egyptian Unified Power
System network. The total number of circuit breakers considered was 881 (107 indoor
and 774 outdoor); leading to a population of 3054 unit-years.
66 kV circuit breakers
electrical insulation to ground: 63 %
electrical controls: 13 %
seals gaskets: 10 %
33 kV circuit breakers
seals gas: 50 %
operating mechanism: 35 %
11 kV circuit breakers
air system: 28 %
operating mechanism: 28 %
isolating contacts: 14 %
66 kV circuit breakers
pollution: 60 % (repair time = 1 hour)
wear/ageing: 20 % (repair time = 13 hours)
33 kV circuit breakers
wear/ageing: 60 % (repair time = 2 hours)
maintenance: 5 % (repair time = 14 hours)
others: 35 % (repair time = 20 minutes)
11 kV circuit breakers
wear/ageing: 50 % (repair time = 50 minutes)
installation: 20 % (repair time = 1 hours)
3.2.13. Franke [1990] observed. during 12 years. failures in a chemical plant in Eastern
Germany. Early failures in the wear-in phase (1.5 ... 2 years) have been removed form
the data.
6 kV circuit-breakers
ETTF = 170 years; c.L = < 100. 250>
3.2.14. Ishibashi et al. [1990] looked for vacuum failures of vacuum interrupters
between 1965 and 1987. All known failures occurred in the first 8 years of production
3.2.15. Filter and Jones [1990] performed laboratory tests on loadbreak elbow
connector opening. Their test program was designed to address the issue of switching
speeds and their influence on switching reliability.
3.2.16. Working Group 13-06 of CIGRE performed a follow up of their 1977 survey
(discussed in Section 3.2.6) during 1988-1989 [Cigre, 1989]. Some of their results are
given in Table 17.
regair time
vol taae ETTF c. i. 8veraae mediLrn
63·100kV 400 vr <600 1500> 45 hr. 24 hr.
100·200kV 140 vr <100 150> 49 hr. 8 hrs
200·300kV 90 vr <75 125,. 70 hI's 10 hr.
300·500kV 60 vr <50 15> 199 hr. 10 hr.
>500kV 55 vr <40 100> 464 hr. 120 hr.
3.2.17. Bovy et al. [1991] analysed outage occurances in the 10 kV cable networks of
a Dutch utility, during 6 years. For circuit breakers they find:
3.2.18. Volkmann et al. [1991] give the following values for failures in underground
distribution systems for the source of their data they refer to two internal reports by
Pacific gas and Electric.
for circuit breakers. Typical values of the repair time are between 4 and 8 hours.
3.3.2. Dickinson [1960) uses the following values for power distribution systems for
refinery process units. These are based on several published papers and on service
records obtained from refineries.
3.3.3. Capra et al. [1969) use the following data for a reliability analysis of 12 kV
underground distribution systems:
3.3.4. Grover and Billinton [1974) use the following data for a study after substation
reliability:
High-voltage breakers
short-circuits : ETTF = 30 year
incorrect trip : ETTF = 5 year
stuck-breaker probability : 0.5 %
Low-voltage breaker
short-circuits : ETTF = 100 year
incorrect trip : ETTF = 100 year
stuck-breaker probability : 6 %
disconnect switches
short-circuit : ETTF = 50 years
mal-trips : ETTF = 5 years
stuck-breaker probability = 1 %
repair time = 3.0 hours
stuck-breaker probability = 4 %
repair time = 3.0 hours
3.3.6. Bocker and Kaufmann [1977) use the following values for a public distribution
network:
3.3.7. Allan et al. [1977) use the following data for 11 kV circuit breakers in the
electrical auxiliary systems of power stations:
3.3.8. McNab [1977) uses the following values for a public distribution network in the
South of Scotland:
3.3.9. Snaith [1977) uses the following values for the electricity supply of a nuclear
power station:
Contactor starter
ETTF = 500 years
time to maintenance = 0.2 years
repair time = 2 hours
3.3.10. Chang [1977) uses the following data for load break connectors to evaluate
distribution system design:
ETTF = 300 years;
replace time = 4 1/2 hours.
3.3.11. Allan et al. [1979) use the following values in a reliability study of a distribution
system:
33 kV circuit breaker
ETTF = 200 years
repair time = 75 hours
time to maintenance = 4 years
maintenance time = 8 hours
11 kV circuit breaker
ETTF = 500 years
repair time = 18 hours
time to maintenance = 4 years
maintenance time = 8 hours
11 kV and 33 kV isolators
ETTF = 1000 years
repair time = 75 hours
time to maintenance = 4 years
maintenance time = 8 hours
~
ETTF repair time to I duration of
active passive ti. maintenance
(years) (years) (hours) (years) (hours)
400 kV 6 20 54 1 168
132 kV 40 125 45 1 168
11 kV 200 140 48 1 24
3.3 kV 200 140 36 1 8
415 V 200 140 36 1 24
3.3.13. Adams and Jasmon (1981) use the following data for circuit breakers in a
distribution system:
3.3.14. Nelson and Johnson (1982) compare three distribution voltages for the power
supply to a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant. They use the following reliability
data (based on 1974 IEEE survey and other available data) for circuit breakers:
ETTF = 380 yr
ETTF = 750 yr
for a circuit breaker being normally open. This applies to short circuits in circuit breakers
in distribution systems.
with a repair time of 5 hours, for 11 kV circuit breakers. The values have been drawn
from distribution system statistics.
3.3.17. Koval (1983) uses for circuit breakers in an industrial power system:
Short circuit:
ETTF = 140 years;
replacement time = 48 hours;
restoration time = 2.5 hours.
3.3.18. Declerq et al. (1985) compare two methods for HV/MV substation reliability.
They use the following data for MV circuit breakers:
3.3.19. Dialynas and Allan (1986) use the same values as Allan et al. (1979) when
including local generation facilities in the reliability evaluation of power distribution
systems.
3.3.20. Anderson et al. [1987) use the following data for circuit-breakers in their study
after the reliability of HV substations.
3.3.21. Dialynas and Allan [1987] describe a reliability model for a power distribution
network with local generation.
For 33 kV circuit-breakers they use
ETTF = 200 years;
repair time = 75 hours;
Switches
ETTF: 250 years
repair time = 1.5 hours
Splices
ETTF = 1700 years (old splices)
ETTF = 17000 years (new splices)
repair time = 1.5 hours
Elbow
ETTF = 1700 years (old elbows)
ETTF = 17000 years (new elbows)
repair time = 3.5 hours
3.3.23. Allan (1988) uses in a reliability study a value of ETTF = 100 years for a short
circuit in a circuit breaker.
3.3.24. Dialynas [1988] uses a value of ETTF = 13 years for 150 kV circuit breakers
and a value of ETTF = 9.6 years for 20 kV circuit breakers.
ETTF = 90 years
for short circuits in circuit breakers. The value is based on failure statistics during 7%
years in the power system of a large chemical plant. The repair time used is 8 hours.
The voltage levels under study are mainly 30 kV. 10 kV and 2 kV.
11 kV circuit breakers:
ETTF = 85 years
repair time = 48 hours
415 V circuit breakers:
ETTF = 200 years
repair time = 24 hours
Switches
ETTF: 250 years
repair time = 1.5 hours
Splices
ETTF = 1700 years (old splices)
ETTF = 17000 years (new splices)
repair time = 1.5 hours
Elbow
ETTF = 1700 years (old elbows)
ETTF = 17000 years (new elbows)
repair time = 3.5 hours
3.3.29. Horton et al. [1989b] use their Distribution Reliability Assessment model
(DREAM) to compute reliability indices for distribution feeders. They use the following
data:
Splice
ETTF = 5300 years
repair time = 90 minutes
Elbow
ETTF = 5300 years
repair time = 210 minutes
Switch
ETTF = 250 years
repair time = 90 minutes
66 kV circuit breakers
ETTF = 300 years;
repair time = 133 hours.
11 kV circuit breakers
ETTF = 350 years;
repair time = 51 hours.
3.3.31. Allan and Inga-Rojas [1990] describe a method for distribution system reliability.
In an example they use for circuit breakers:
Open breakers
probability failing to close: 1 %
ETTF = 50 years
Closed breakers
ETTF = 25 years
3.3.32. Sallam et al. [1990] calculated, as an example, reliability indices for the MV-
network of Port-Fouad, Egypt. They use the following data:
3.3.33. Mohan Rao and Sekhar [1990] compare the reliability of a number of distribution
systems. They use the following data:
ETTF = 9.61 yr
for permanent failures of circuit breakers. The repair time is 280 hours. Maintenance is
performed every two years during three hours.
The system under study contains circuit breakers of 20 kV, 6.6 kV and 380 Volt.
For a 150 kV breaker they use ETTF = 12.9 yr, with a repair time of 21.0 hours.
They use a value of ETTF = 75 yr for isolators (6.6 kVand 150 kV).
3.3.36. Dortolina et al. (1991) use in a substation reliability evaluation study for circuit
breaker failures:
The repair time used is, in both cases, equal 24 hours. Maintenance is performed once
every three years during 24 hours.
They use a value of ETTF = 500 years for switches, with a repair time of 12 hours.
3.3.37. Kj"lIe and Sand (1991) give the following values for circuit breakers in
distribution networks in Norway:
22 kV rural network
ETTF = 59 years;
repair time = 6.0 hours.
11 kV urban network
ETTF = 77 years;
repair time = 5.4 hours.
22 kV rural network
ETTF = 71 years;
repair time = 1.5 hours.
11 kV urban network
ETTF = 1400 years;
repair time = 0.8 hours
3.3.38. Warren [1992] examines different UPS system configurations to formulate the
most reliable system. The failure rates used are based on field statistics and MIL-HDBK-
217E. For low-voltage circuit breakers the following value is used:
Figure 5 shows the failure rate as a function of age. For minor failures, it shows a steady
decrease. For major failurs no trent is present .
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Figure 5: Relation between the failure rate and the age of circuit breakers according to
Mazza and Michaca [19811.
Figure 6 shows the failure rate as a function of age. The upper figure for all failures, the
three lower ones after a subdivision for failure cause. The failure rate for all failures
shown no clear trent, whereas the initial failures show a decreasing failure rate and the
wear-out failures an increasing one.
Rat, of fults du 10 .11 ~.UH
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3.4.4. Bar et at (1990) use a Delphi-method to determine the position of the knee in the
bath-tube curve, i.e. the place where the wear-out phase starts to become important.
For low-voltage disconnect switches they find in case of
good circumstances 32 years;
average circumstances 26 years;
bad circumstances 17 years.
For medium-voltage minimum oil circuit breakers in an MV substation they find in case
of
good circumstances 14 years
average circumstances 13 years
3.4.5. Horton et al. [1990] provide estimates of the failure rates of underground
distribution system components. The estimates are based on information collected from
a number of utility sources throughout the United States of America. For each
component and each year they used the number of units installed or removed and the
number of failures which have occured. This data is fitted to a Weibull distribution.
From 364,000 load break elbows installed by NELPA (Northwest Electric Light and
Power Association) utilities from 1968 to 1988 they find the following expression for
the failure rate:
A(t) = 0.09x10· 3 t.
As only 20 years of observation are available, the latter time has no relation to an ETTF
value found under the assumption of an exponential distribution (2400 years in this
case).
3.4.6. Kanai et al. [1991] determine parameters for the lifetime distribution of vacuum
interrupters from field data. They find a Weibull distribution with a characteristic number
of operations of 271,600 and a shape factor of 2.041. With the time as parameter they
find a characteristic lifetime of 3201 months (267 years) with a shape factor of 1.235.
The values for circuit breakers presented in this chapter are difficult to compare. Circuit
breaker failures include, among others, incorrect opening (either due to a failure of the
protection or due to a failure of the breaker itself) and short circuits in or near the circuit
breaker.
Table 20 and Table 21 summarize the values for "short circuit in or near a circuit
breaker". Table 20 gives recommended values and data from surveys. Table 21 gives
data used in reliability studies.
In Table 20 it has been assumed that "failure in electrical part" and "failure of electrical
insulation to ground" are synonym for "short circuit". A comparison with the other
values in the table shows that this assumption is probably not correct. From Table 20
the conclusion could be that the ETTF is in the range from 1000 to 5000 years, for LV
and MV circuit breakers. For higher voltages circuit breakers become less reliable. From
follow-up surveys by CIGRE and IEEE it follows that circuit breakers are more reliable
nowadays than in the past.
In Table 21 it has been assumed that "active failures" and "electrical insulation failures"
are synonym for "short circuit". It is remarkable that the data used in reliability studies
are systematically too low. No clear explanation for this has been found.
Table 22 and Table 23 summarize the ETTF values for disconnect switches. The results
from surveys differ over a wide range: from 100 to 6000 years. This is partly due to the
increase in reliability due to improved manufacturing and maintenance methods. But,
apparently, different types of disconnect switches have fairly different life times. This
is also made clear by the values presented by Volkmann et al. (1991).
The same spread in values is visible in Table 23, showing the data used in reliability
studies.
From the values presented here, an ETTF value in the range 250 - 1000 years seems
reasonable.
Table 20. Summary of circuit breaker life times; short circuits in circuit
breakers; recommended values and data from surveys.
Table 21. Summary of circuit breaker life times; short circuits in circuit
breakers; data used in reliability studies.
230 enclosed
3.2.2 Connor and Parkins 1966 7100 oB - ilrmersed
10 000 air-break
3.2.4 IEEE 1974 350 looen
160 enclosed
3.2.8 WallnBns 1986 1000
3.2.9 van Amelsfoort et at. 1986 6000
3.2.18 Volkmam et at. 1991 250 switch (underaround)
5200 elbow (underaround)
5200 sol ice (underaround)
1300 overhead switch' urban feeder
800 overhead switch' rural feeder
4.1.1. IEEE standard 500 [IEEE, 1983] gives reliability data for components of nuclear-
power stations. The data has been derived by a Delphi-method combined with the results
from several surveys and data bases. For protective relays the following values are
recommended (catastrophic failures only):
All types:
Spurious operation : ETTF = 2850 years; range = <1200,11,000>
Fails to open : ENTF = 2 x 106; range = < 1 x 1 0 6 , 7 x 10 6 >
Fails to close : ENTF = 300 x 103; range = < 1 50 x 103 , 1 x 10 6 >
Under-voltage, instant
ETTF = 50 year
repair time = 0.6 hours
Over-voltage
ETTF = 200 years
4.2.1. Dickinson [1962] presents the results of an AlEE survey in 1959. For "Protective
relays, including switchgear, starter overhead etc." the results are:
4.2.2. Connor and Parkins [1966] report about a 14-year survey on faults in networks
with nominal voltages between 2 and 33 kV. The results for protective gear are given
below. There are approximately 50,000 protective gear in service. This figure includes
approximately 15,000 installations of current-release-operated equipment with time-limit
fuses.
The following subdivision according to cause is given for faults in protective gear:
relays and components: ETTF = 970 years; 9.1 %
incorrect settings: ETTF = 930 years; 9.5%
failure of trip supply: ETTF = 4800 years; 1.9%
AC trip circuit and t.1. fuses: ETTF = 350 years; 25.7%
wiring defects: ETTF = 2300 years; 3.8%
pilot cables: ETTF = 1700 years; 5.2%
incorrect connections: ETTF = 4800 years; 1.9%
incorrect circuit diagram: ETTF = 20,000 years; 0.5%
interference with secondary wiring: ETTF = 3700 years; 2.4%
testing errors: ETTF = 2700 years; 3.3%
vibration or mechanical shock: ETTF = 450 years; 20.0%
incorrect characteristic: ETTF = 1600 years; 5.7%
unkown at time of original report: 11 .0%
Based on 50,000 protective gear-units and a 14-year covering period, the following
values are found for "all causes":
The number of system faults caused initially by relays and protection is extremely small,
and on the average only about two cases occur per year (on a population of 50,000 that
implies: ETTF = 25,000 years). Cases of protection failing to operate correctly when
faults on the system occur are about 200 per year (this would imply ETTF = 250 years,
although this value is of no meaning as the number of faults occuring in the system is
not known). The average percentage of correct operations of relays for the past 14 years
is approximately 94%, and has tended to improve slightly in recent years.
For "failure of circuit breaker due to auxiliary or protective device" the survey results in:
fixed type : ETTF = 570 years;
draw-out : ETTF = 970 years.
4.2.4. Patterson and Teague [1974] present field experience with solid-state protective
relays over the period 1965-1973. Their results, as shown in Figure 7, are based on a
total of more than 10,000 equipment-years of service. The failure rate decreases from
0.25 per year to 0.03 per year, according to the authors, due to manufacturer's design
and quality control improvements and due to the user's increased familiarity with the
installation, setting testing and maintenance of the solid-state equipment.
,.
IUCUUCAl COI""'fCTlONS
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CAlf NO""" Yf ......
1165 ,_ 1M' ,...
Figure 7. Field experience (left) and types of field problems (right) with
It"
C ... LtNO .....
1110
vr .....!
1"1 "" ""
4.2.6. Yoguchi et al. [1984] investigated 1037 failures, occured during April 1977 and
March 1980, on typical relay equipment for transmission line, busbar, transformer and
distribution line protection in Japan. A total of 14,755 pieces of equipment have been
observed.
The transmission line equipment (phase and directional comparison) has duplicated main
protection and complicated backup protection. This explains, according to the authors,
the low value of ETTF.
For the main relay the percentages of unnecesarry and missing operating modes are 42%
and 58%, respectively.
The failures described previously were detected by the manual periodic test, automatic
monitoring, routine inspection and power system faults.
4.2.7. Franke [1987) gives data for 6 types of secundary equipment, obtained form 30
years of service experience in the power system of a chemical plant in the German
Democratic RepubliC. There seem to be however some contradictions in his data. I will
give here only his value for the probability of failure per interruption (mittere
Fehlverhaltens quote):
Relay A
probability of fail-to-operate: 10 %
probability of mal-operation: 5%
Relay B
probability of fail-to-operate: 6 %
probability of mal-operation: 7 %
He gives values for these indices for the EHV. transmission and sub-transmission
systems of Hong Kong. (based of observations from 1981 to 1987)
ETTF = .--;;;1=",
1-NSFPI
k = fail-to-operate
f
correct operations + fail to-operate
The results for three types of distance relays are given in Table 24.
4.2.9. Heising and Patterson (1989) give typical failures rates for protective relays.
Table 25: Failure of control and protection equipment, according to the Canadian
Electrical Association 119901.
4.2.11. Vlutters [1991 J gives failure rates for earth leakage relays, derived from testing
of over 44,000 installation in Bavaria, Germany. A subdivision to the place of the
installation yields:
4.3.1. Snaith (1977) uses the following values for the electricity supply of a nuclear
power station.
4.3.2. Allan and Adraktas (1982) use the following failure rates for a reliability study.
The values are based on information given by [Green and Bourne, 1972) and [IEEE,
1974)
The "fault detector" includes appropriate current transformers, voltage transformers and
comparators. The "relay" contains operating and restraint coils. The "trip signal device"
contains the trip signal device and associated power supply. The "breaker" is the actual
fault breaking component.
4.3.3. Ruoff and van Meeteren (1983) use a value of ETTF = 10 years for incorrect
tripping of a circuit breaker. The probability of fail-to-open they use is 1 %.
4.3.4. Bunch, Stalder and Tengdin (1983) use past performance from a number of
electric utilities to establish reliability targets for automated distribution system
equipment which are deemed acceptable. They arrive at the following targets for the
protection:
4.3.5. Anderson et al. (1987) describe a study after the reliability of HV substations in
which they include the secondary equipment. For failures of the secundary equipment
they distinguish between (dormant) fail-to-trip and mal-trip. The second one is
incorporated in their study by increasing the failure rate of the circuit breaker, the first
one by introducing a failure probability at operation for the circuit breaker.
They have used the following data:
4.3.7. Fransen [1989) uses a value of ETTF = 140 years of incorrect interventions by
a relay or by an operator. The value is based on 7% years of failure data in the supply
to a large chemical plant. The repair time used is 4 hours.
4.3.8. Mohan Rao and sekhar [1990) compare the reliability of a number of distribution
systems.
4.3.9. Dortolina et al. (1991) determined the reliability of three different designs for a
400 kV switching substation in Venezuela. They explicity include the behaviour of the
protective relaying system by extending the circuit-breaker representation.
Their circuit-breaker model is a logical series connection of a processing and decison
subsystem (PDs), a switching subsystem (55) and a auxiliary subsystem (AS). The latter
is considered totally reliable.
The PDs has an ETTF of 20,000 years for active failures; an ETTF of 39 years for
passive failures and a repair time of 12.0 hours.
The 55 has an ETTF of 65 years for active failures; an ETTF of 200 years for passive
failures and a repair time of 24.0 hours.
The probability of a breaker being stuck is 0.5 %.
4.3.10. Koglin et al. [1991) describe a reliability study of an EHV system. For the
protection they use the following data:
4.3.11. Kula et al. [1991] include the reliability of the protection in the design of high-
voltage substations. They use the following data:
4.3.12. Lau et al. [1991) give failure data for components of modern computer-based
protective equipment. These data are based on a review of experience with similar
components in other applications and engineering judgment of a few experts in the field.
They give the following ETTF values:
logic processor : 6.7 years;
communication processor : 9 years;
All types of failure take 8 hours to repair. Periodic maintenance is carried out once in two
years to check out the failures that cannot be detected otherwise.
4.3.13. Kialle and Sand [1991] give the following values for control equipment in
distribution networks in Norway:
22 kV rural network
ETTF = 20 years; repair time = 0.8 hours;
11 kV urban network
ETTF =60 years; repair time = 0.8 hours.
4.4.1 . Gusciora [1988) treats bathtub curves, Weibull distibutions and relay reliability.
for a number of relays and related apparatrus he determined the parameters of the
weibull distribution for the lifetime.
For ·snap-action switches before process fixes· he finds the superposition of two
Weibull distributions:
char. life = 7 million operations; shape factor = 0.9
char. life = 20 million operations; shape factor = 4.5
For ·snap-action switches after process fixes· he finds the superposition of two other
Weibull distributions:
char. life = 15 million operations; shape factor = 3.5
char. life = 15 million operations; shape factor = 5.5
Infant mortality of reed relays that had been declared ·marginally defective":
char. life = 18 billion operations; shape factor = 0.2
4.4.2. Bar et al. [1990) use a Delphi method to determine the position of the knee in the
bath-tub curve, i.e. the age where the wear-out phase starts to become important.
The same values are given for polygon-shaped relays and for differential relays.
overcurrent-time relay
good circumstances : 14 years;
average circumstances : 9 years;
bad circumstances : 6 years;
4.4.3. Ugokwe [1992] presents the results of a reliability case study on the ·offline
1774 programmable logic controller (PLC)". From a total of 20 failures of this type of
PLC they conclude that the failure rate consists of three Weibull-distributions, with the
following shape factors:
p = 0.457, 0 - 20 days;
p = 1.842, 7 - 25 days;
p = 2.185,60 - 150 days.
Failures of the protection can be divided into "fail-to-trip" and "incorrect trip·. The latter
can be further divided into ·spontaneous fail-to-trip" and "fail-to-trip due to fault in
another zone". Unfortunately, many studies do not make this distinction. This makes it
difficult to compare the values.
Table 26 and Table 27 summarize the values for relay life time given in this chapter. The
values show a large spread. Several reasons for this can be given: difference in definition
of failure of the relay; different life times for different relay types.
Due to the limited number of values given, it is of no use to suggest some new values.
Some of the referred publications give recommended values that seem to be reasonable
[e.g. Heising and Patterson, 19891. I would suggest 250 to 1000 years for
electromagnetic relays; 100 to 200 years for electronic relays (single function) and 10
to 30 years for electronic relay systems. The life time of modern computerized relays is
not clear.
Table 26. Summary of relay life times; recommended values and data
from surveys.
Table 27. Summary of relay life times; data used in reliability studies.
5.1.1. IEEE standard 500 [IEEE, 1977] gives reliability data for components of nuclear-
power stations. The data has been derived by a Delphi-method combined with the results
form several surveys and data bases. For fuses the following values are recommended
(catastrophic failures only)
All types
Fuses (open) below rating : ETTF = 8800 years ; range = < 80, 30000 >
Fails to interrupt : ENTF > 100,000 cycles
Up to 1000 Volts
Fuses (open) below rating : ETTF = 5500 years ; range = <550, 19000>
Fails to interrupt : ENTF > '00,000 cycles
-60- Fuses.
5.2. Data from surveys
-61- Fuses.
5.3. Data used in reliability studies
5.3.1. Dialynas and Papadopoulos (1989) use a value of ETTF = 250 years for a 20 kV
fuse-cutout.
5.3.3. Saliam et al. (1990) calculate, as an example, reliability indices for the MV-
network of Port. Fouad, Egypt. For fuses they use:
5.3.4. Volkmann et al. (1991) give a value of ETTF = 250 years for a fuse in an
underground distribution system. For the source of their data they refer to two internal
reports of Pacific Gas and Electric. For a fuse in an overhead distribution system they
give
These values were computed form historical outage records for a group of 85 rural and
95 urban feeders, over a period of approximately 5 years.
The repair times are.
rural overhead fuse : 155 hours
urban overhead fuse : 130 hours
rural underground fuse : 200 hours
urban underground fuse : 74 hours
-62- Fuses.
5.4. Ageing data
-63- Fuses.
5.5. Conclusions
Table 28 summarizes the values for fuse life time given in this chapter. From [IEEE, 1977)
it becomes clear that the probability that a fuse fails to interrupt is very small. The values
in the table are therefore, probably, only for "fuse mal-trips".
The values used in the reliability studies appear too low. I would suggest values between
1000 and 5000 years. One should keep in mind however that the probability of an
incorrect trip (or fail-to-trip) because of choosing the wrong fuse size, can be much higer.
-64- Fuses.
6. VOLTAGE AND CURRENT TRANSFORMERS
6.1.1. IEEE standard 500 [IEEE,1984] gives reliability data for components of nuclear-
power stations. The data has been derived by a Delphi-method combined with the results
from several surveys and databases.
For instrument transformers the following values are recommended (catastrophic failures
only):
voltage transformers:
0-10 kV : ETTF = 325 years ; range = <145,425>
open circuit : ETTF = 1600 years ; range = < 1300, 2000>
short circuit : ETTF = 400 years ; range = <200,550>
over 10 kV : ETTF = 170 years ; range = < 110, 300>
open circuit : ETTF = 1000 years ; range = <600, 1700>
short circuit : ETTF = 200 years ; range = <140,400>
Current transformers
0-10 kV : ETTF = 500 years ; range = <250, 1000>
open circuit : ETTF = 2300 years ; range = <1100,4500>
short circuit : ETTF = 650 years ; range = <350,1400>
over 10 kV : ETTF = 350 years ; range = <280, 1000>
open circuit : ETTF = 1500 years ; range = <300,4200>
short circuit : ETTF = 420 years ; range = <350,1200>
6.1.2. Kloeppel et al. [1990] give recommended values of component data for reliability
studies. They were based on data from several industries in Eastern Germany as well as
from the public supply. The following values are recommended for voltage and current
transformers.
6.2.1. Connor and Parkins [1966] report about a 14-year survey of faults in networks
with nominal voltages between 2 and 33 kV. Some results are given below:
6.2.2. Cigre Working Group 23.07 performed a study after the reliability of instrument
transformers rated at 72.5 kV and above that consist of a paper-oil system [Cigre, 1989].
The survey covered a total of 2.31 million transformer-years (136.033 transformers
during 17 years).
The results of the survey are given in Table 29. All ETTF-values and confidence intervals
are in years:
6.3.1. De Clerq et al. (1985) compare two methods for HV/MV substation reliability.
6.4.1. Biir et al. (1990) use a Delphi-method to determine the position of the knee in the
bath-tub curve, i.e. the age where the wear-out phase starts to become important.
For current transformers in an MV/LV substation they find, in case of
good circumstances : 36 years;
average circumstances : 34 years;
bad circumstances : 24 years.
Table 30 summarizes the results of this chapter. From both surveys the conclusion is
that the lifetime of voltage and current transformers is several thousands of years. The
data from other sources is not convincing enough to overrule this conclusion. I therefore
suggest an ETTF value between 2000 and 3000 years.
L.1...1 Green and Bourne [1972] give average component failure-rates for electrical
components. For generators they give:
AC, general : ETTF = 16 years
DC, general : ETTF = 13 years
Tachometers : ETTF = 23 years
Synchros : i:TTF = 14 years
7.1.2. IEEE standard 500 [lEEE,1984] gives reliability data for components of nuclear-
power stations. The data has been derived by a Delphi-method combined with the results
from several surveys and databases. For generators the following recommended values
are given (catastrophic failures only):
7.1.3. The IEEE gold book [IEEE, 1991] gives recommended values for the components
of industrial and commercial power systems. For generators it recommends:
-70- Generators.
7.2. Data from surveys
7.2.1. Dickinson (1962] presents the results of an AlEE survey after the reliability of
electrical equipment in industrial plants. The survey was held in 1959. For steam turbine
generators the results are:
The failure data appears to be different for different locations, therefore some detail is
presented below:
7.2.3. Dopazo et al. (1976] have collected data to find the relation between unavailabilty
and time to maintenance. The data was derived from supercritical and cyclone-fired
generating units, in the period 1970-1975. Figure 9 shows the duration of maintenance
as a function of the time to maintenance. Figure 10 shows the forced unavailability as
a function of the time to maintenance.
7.2.4. O'Donnell [1980] describes the results of a survey after the reliability of
generators in industrial plants and commercial buildings. He gives the following data:
Continuous units (steam turbines) : ETTF = 6 years; c.L = <4.5, 8.5 >
: repair time = 32.7 hours
Continuous units; age > 10 years : ETTF = 8.3 years; c.L = <6,13>
-71- Generators.
iii
?i
e
w 60
'"
~
~
0
"-
0 60
....X
'"
Z
W
...J
40
30
20
10
-72- Generators.
20%
>
>-
:::;
iii 18%
"
~
!z
::>
16%
0 14%
w
~
,.
0 12%
~.
0
10%
8%
...--- 15% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
6%
4% L>.
2%
O%~~--~--~--~--~--~~--~--~------
o 1·3 4-6 7-9 10-1213-'616-1819-2122-2425-27
7.2.5. Schilling et al. [1988] give failure data for 10 power plants in Brazil: four thermal
oil units and six thermal coal units. The data for all units cover the period since their
initial commercial commitment, thus representing their real commercial age. Some results
for these 10 units are given in Table 31. Note that the ETTF is given in days I.
Table 31: Failure data of 10 power plants according to [Schilling et al., 1988J.
The first column gives a code for the unit, sc1 - sc4 are oil units (2x81 MW, 2x218MW),
jl1 - jl6 are oil units (2x50MW, 2x66MW, 2x125MW). The third column gives the per-
centage of time that the unit was in operation.
-73- Generators.
7.2.6. Smith [1989) gives equivalent unavailability factors for cogeneration on power
plants. For utility cogeneration plants they find EUF = 13.4 %, c.i. = [8,24). The
planned unavailability is 9.0 %, the unplanned unavailability 4.4 %.
For industrial cogeneration plants they find EUF = 4.4 %, c.i. = [2,6). The planned
unavailability is 2.8 %, the unplanned unavailability is 1.6 %. All plants under study
were put into operation in the 1980's, had relatively high service factor, and an electrical
power between 75 and 100 MW.
(EUF = Expected Unavailability Factor: the percentage of time that a component is not
available due to forced as well as scheduled outages.)
7.2.7. Morzelle et al. [1989) have analysed the reliability of 76 UD-45 emergency sets
installed before 1980 and 175 sets installed between 1980 and 1988 and compared the
results with data obtained from sets installed before 1980.
Before 1980
failure to start : ENTF = 600 ; sample too small.
failure while running : ETTF = 425 hours ; c.i. = <300, 650>
1980-1988
failure to start : ENTF = 28,000 ; sample too small
failure while running : ETTF = 1000 hours ; c.i. = <800, 1400>
7.2.8. Ficek and Grolich [1989) followed about 90 steam turbines from one
manufacturer during 12 years (1974-1985). The authors conclude that these turbines
have a high availability. They give the following data:
Availability (ratio beteen the time of operation and the desired time of operation):
98.3 ± 0.3%
Technical use factor (percentage of time spend on normal operation): 63.2 ± 2.0%
Failure halt factor (percentage of time spend on non-operation due to failures): 1.0
± 0.2%
7.2.9. Farmer [1989) presents some results of a study of diesel generator ageing in
nuclear power plants. The following subdivision of ageing failures, with resoect to the
cause, has been made:
vibration and shock :28%
poor manufacturing : 18%
-74- Generators.
adverse environment : 17%
maintenance errors : 9%
The following subdivision with respect to the location of the failure has been made:
governor control system : 30%
fuel oil supply system : 13%
the diesel engine itself : 10%
One of the major potential contributors to ageing turned out to be the fast start
requirements imposed by technical specifications for nuclear plants.
7.2.10. Smith et al. (1990) present the results of a reliability survey of 600 to 1800 kW
diesel and gas-turbine generating units. The survey was performed in 1988 and
sponsored by the U.S. Army Engineering and Housing Support Center. The data was
needed to support the analysis of power systems at command, control, communications,
and intelligence installations worldwide.
Plants were selected from a wide variety of applications (e.q. electric utilities,
cogenerators, hospitals, airfields, military installations, and computer and control
facilities). Twenty-two plants participated in the study, providing data on 708 unit-years
of operating experience.
A distinction is made between failure rates based on period hours (calendar time) and
operating hours (power production time).
Based on period hours the results are:
Diesel auxiliary
continous : ETTF = 93 days ; c.i. = <80, 105 days>
: repair time = 2.9 hours
standby : ETTF = 290 days ; c.i. = <260,330 days>
: repair time = 2.8 hours
Diesel package
continous: ETTF = 83 days ; c.i. = <75,90 days>
: repair time = 6.4 hours
standby : ETTF = 380 days ; c.i. = <320,460 days>
: repair time = 3.9 hours
Gas turbine
continous: ETTF = 80 days ; c.i. = <70,95 days>
: repair time = 7.2 hours
standby : ETTF = 1160 days ; c.i. = < 900, 1500 days>
: repair time = 111.6 hours
-75- Generators.
Gas turbine - continous : ETIF = 49 days
- standby : ETIF = 8 days
The high failure rates based on operating hours can be attributed to the relatively low
utilization of these units.
The mean time between planned outages (MTIPO) and the duration of planned outages
are given below, based on period hours
Diesel auxiliary
continuous : MTIPO = 28 days ; duration = 1.3 hours
standby : MTIPO = 286 days ; duration = 3.8 hours
Diesel package
continous :MTIPO = 62 days ; duration = 12.5 hours
standby : MTIPO = 180 days ; duration = 7.8 hours
Gas turbine
continous : MTIPO = 66 days ; duration = 21.1 hours
standby : MTIPO = 390 days ; duration = 10.6 hours
In the discussion to their paper, the authors give data on the probability of fail-to-start.
Here they refer to a number of other publications. I will reproduce their conclusions
below; where ENTF = Expected Number of starts To Failure.
The results of a number of gas-turbine starting reliability studies are given in Table 32.
Some results of diesel starting reliability studies are given in Table 33. The references
are given after Table 33.
Study ENTF c. ; .
1 33 not available
5 270 <220350>
60 55 <35 130>
6b 200 .....1. too small
6c 300 sampl. too small
6d 55 <40 90>
6e 100 sample too small
7 11 not available
8 58 not eva; labLe
1 ARINC Research Corporation. Final Report - RAM Study of Diesel and Gas-Turbine
Generator Sets. Publication 4219-03-01-4803, October 1988.
2 Booz, Allen Applied Research. Small Gas Turbine Start Investigation, April 1970.
-76- Generators.
3 Kongsberg Dresser Power. Internal Study Comparing Diesels with Gas-Turbine Engines
(unpublished). 1984.
4 AT&T. Internal Study for Gas-Turbine Reliability (unpublished). 1980.
5 Electric Power Research Institute. Reliability of Emergency Diesel Generators at U.S.
Nuclear Power Plants. NSAC 108. September 1986
6 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing
Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR). NUREG/CR-4639 EGG-2458. Volume 5. RX. June 1988.
6a Consumer Power Compagny - Big Rock point
6b Northeast Utilities - Milstone
6e Northeast Utilities - Connecticut Yankee
6d Commenwealth Edison Compagny - Zion
6e Consolidated Edison Compagny of New York Inc. - Indian Point
7 Institute of Nuclear Power Operations. Nuclear Plant Reliability Data Systems. 1982
Annual Report. 1983.
8 Electric Power Research Institute. Diesel Power Reliability at Nuclear Power Plants:
Data Prelimanary Analysis. NP-2433. June 1982
7.2.11. Yotsumoto et al. (1990) give data for origin of failure in an engine-generator set.
Actual statistical data from
telecommunications offices are used. The
functional block diagram of an engine- Detecting Block Main Block
generator set. as they use it. is shown in • Temperature • Fuel system
Figure 11. • Lubricating oil • Lubrication sYstem
pressure
• Cooling system
• Water flow
• Generating system
For this configuration they give the • Output voltage
following probabilities of these blocks • Speed I
contribution to a failure: l Common Block
Controlling Block • ~tart-up system
• Fuel system
Main block • Distribution board f - • Cooling systefTl
failed during operation : 13 % • Control board
failed to start : 22 %
Common block
failed during operation :5 % Figure 11: Functional block diagram of
failed to start : 16 % Engine-Generator set used by [Yutsomoto et
Detecting block al., 19901.
failed during operation :4%
failed to start : 15 %
Controlling block
failed to start : 25 %
7.2.12. Verplanke (1991) studied failures that occured in the power system of a
chemical industry in The Netherlands between 1970 and 1991.
Generators 11 kV
ETTF = 2 years; c.i. = <1.5.3.5>
-77- Generators.
7.3. Data used in reliability studies
7.3.1. Snaith [1977] uses the following values for the electricity supply of a nuclear
power station.
Diesel generator
probability of failure to start : 3%
ETTF, while running : 300 hours
7.3.2. Magnon et al. [1977] use a fault tree to determine the reliability of stand-by diesel
generator sets in nuclear plants. From data for components of the diesel generator (3000
kW, 1500 rpm) they find the following reliability data:
7.3.3. Allan et al. [1980] use, in a reliability study of electrical auxiliary systems of a
power station, the following data for standby generations (23.5 kV):
7.3.4. Dialynas and Allan [1986] use the following generating units data for 1 MVA, 2
MVA and 10 MVA units in 33 kV and 11 kV distribution networks:
ETTF = 10 years
starting failure probability = 10% (20% for 1 MVA unit)
time to maintenance = 1 year
durating of maintenance = 168 hours
stuck breaker probability = 0.2%
7.3.5. Dialynas and Allan [1987] describe a reliability model for a power distribution
network with local generation. They use the same values as in [Dialynas and Allan 1986]
-78- Generators.
7.3.7. In a study on energy planning for Curacao [Government, 1989] the following non-
availability values are used for generating units.
25 MW steam unit:
planned maintenance : 12.3%
forced outages : 9.7%
For diesel units the data are given in Table 34 (based on observation):
Table 34. Failure date for diesel units on Cura9ao {Government, 1989J
7.3.8. Billinton and Bebnath [1990] present an alternative four-state model for peak lead
units. They give the following non-availability data, based on 1989-1984 ERIS data. The
non-availability is defined as the chance that the unit is forced out when it needs to be
available.
7.3.9. Allan and Inga-Rojas [1990] describe a method for distribution system reliability.
In an example they use for standby generators:
-79- Generators.
failure while operating: ETTF = 14 days.
7.3.10. Dialynas and Koskolos (1991) study an industrial power system with 5 local
generators: a parallel steam unit (6.88 MVA), two parallel gas units (6.47 and 6.22
MVA), and two stand-by diesel units (0.50 and 0.70 MVA). For all units they use a
forced outage rate (FOR) of 10 %. Maintenance is performed once a year during 168.0
h. For the stand-by units a starting failure probability of 20 % and a stuck breaker
probability of 0.2 % are used.
The FOR is defined as the percentage of time that the component is out of operation due
to failures (i.e. due to forced outages). The time that the component is out of operation
for maintenance (scheduled outages) is not included in the FOR.
7.3.11. Prescott et al. (1991) use a value of ETTF = 10 years for the failure of standby
generation to a large computer and communications installation. The repair time is 8
hours.
7.3.12. Patton [1992] investigates the effect of the duty cycle experienced by a
generating unit on the unit's failure rate and availability. He uses the following failure
data:
The following relation is used between the failure rate (per year) and the number of
starts per year (5):
A = Ao + 1.315 S ,
where "0 is the failure rate for zero number of starts (according to the above-given
values). The number of starts appears to have a considerable influence on the failure
rate. One start per month already more than doubles the failure rate.
-80- Generators.
7.4. Ageing data
7.4.1. Schilling et al. (1987) obtained failure data for large thermal generators. They fit
a number of expressions for the failure rate to the times-to-failure assuming a repair
process that is "as-bad-as-old".
Assuming a Weibull distribution, they obtain.
char. life-time = 2.353 months
shape factor = 1.709
7.4.2. Simpson and Stoll (1989) give a lot of data on availability and outage factors for
50 MW to 400 MW oil/gas fired subcritical units. Figures 12 through 15 give some of
the results obtained from the utility industry (North American Reliability Council). Figure
16 gives the forced outage rate as a function of the unit's age. A significant increase
occurs for units older than 25 years. This relation is obtained by using utility industry
data for units smaller than 200 MW.
PER CENT FORCED OUTAGE FACTOR
10r----------------------------------------------,
- - 10 HRS/ST 25 HRS/ST 120 HRS/ST
2
t)
o 2 3 4 5 6 7 a
THOUSANDS OF SERVICE HOURS
Figure 12. Forced non-availability versus annual service hours, for different values of the
service hours per start, according to Simpson and Stol/ [1989J.
7.4.3. Vesely [1990) determined ageing parameters for components of nuclear plants.
For fail-to-start of a diesel generator he finds.
-81- Generators.
30 rP~E~R_C~E~N_T~F~O~R~C~E~D~O~U~t~A~G~E~R~A~T~E~____________________~
5 STARTS 10 STARTS 20 STARTS
25 ~ • STARTS 80 STARTS -:- 150 STARTS
20
15
10
O~--~-----L----~--~~--~----~--~
o 2 3 4 5 6 7
THOUSANDS OF SERVICE HOURS
Figure 13. Failure rate as a function of annual service hours, for different values of the
number of starts per year, according to Simpson and Stoll {1989J.
20 rP_E_R_C_E_N_T~S~C_H~E~D~U~LE~D~O~U~t~A~G~E~F~A=C~TO~R__________________~
5 STARTS 10 STARTS 20 STARTS
15
~ .0 STARTS - 80 STARTS .. -:- 150 STARTS
10
o 23456 7 8
THOUSANDS OF SERVICE HOURS
Figure 14. planned unavailability as a function of annual service hours, for different
values of the number of starts per year, according to Simpson and Stoll {1989J.
-82- Generators.
PER CENT AVAILABILITY
95,-------~~~------------------------_,
5 STARTS 10 STARTS 20 STARTS
40 STARTS 80 STARTS 150 STARTS
90
85
80
75L---~----~ __~____~__~____~__~____~
a 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
THOUSANDS OF SERVICE HOURS
Figure 15. Availability (forced and planned) versus annual service hours, for different
values of the number of starts per year, according to Simpson and Stoll [1989J.
85
10
/ B
80
.' 6
.'
75
".
'-. -. -----_. 4
70L---~----~----~--~----~--~----~--~0
o 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
YEAR
Figure 16. Availability and failure rate as a function of age, according to Simpson and
Stoll {1989J.
-83- Generators.
7.5. Conclusions
Table 35 and table 36 give the ETTF values for generators. as presented in this chapter.
The values fall into two groups: life times of several days and life times of several years.
From the description of the different studies I concluded that the low value holds for
stand-by units and the high one for continous units. A serious descripancy in this are the
values for conituous units presented by Smith et al. [1990].
From the values presented here I would suggest 5 to 20 days for stand-by units and 1
to 3 years for continuous units.
Table 37 and Table 38 give the expected number of starts to failure (ENTFI. according
to the different sources. From the surveys the fail-to-start probability appears to vary
between 0.5 and 2%. The probability values used in reliability studies are in general
higher: 2 - 20 %.
Table 35: Summary of generator life times: recommended values and data from surveys.
Table 36. Summary of generator life times: data used in reliability studies.
-84- Generators.
Section Reference ENTf Remarks
7.2.4 O'Donnell 1980 75
7.2.7 Morzelle et al. 1989 600 before 1980
28 000 1980·1988
7.2.10 Smith et at. 1990 210 gas· turbine driven
155 gas· turbine driven
125 gas· turbine driven
128 Aas·turbine driven
33 diesel driven
270 diesel driven
55 diesel driven
200 diesel driven
300 di esel driven
55 diesel driven
100 diesel driven
11 diesel driven
58 diesel driven
-85- Generators.
8. "UNINTERRUPTABLE" POWER SUPPLIES
8.1.1. IEEE standard 500 [IEEE,1984] gives reliability data for components of nutlear-
power stations. The data has been derived by a Delphi-method combined with the results
from several surveys and databases. For uninterruptable power supplies the following
data are recommended.
All types
No output : ETTF = 30 years ; range = <4, 600>
Fail to transfer : ETTF = 20 years ; range = <3,450>
Degraded : ETTF = 57 years ; range = < 8, 1300 >
Incipient : ETTF = 57 years ; range = <8,1100>
8.2.1. The IEEE sponsored survey completed in 1972 [lEEE,1974) results in:
8.3.1. The IEEE orange book [IEEE, 1987) states that large non-redundant UPS systems
can have an ETTF of 20,000 hours (2 years) using handbook reliability data; but field
experience indicates ETTF's in the order of 40,000 hours. A redundant system is 2 - 4
times more reliable than a nonredundant system.
8.3.2. Suntio and White [1988) use different types of UPS to optimize the power supply.
They use the following data:
Traditional Battery
ETTF = 100 years
maintenance checking one a year
SLA battery
ETTF = 50 years
maintenance checking once every 3 years
Rectifier
ETTF = 1 5 years
repair readiness 24 hours
maintenance checking once every year
8.3.3. Van der Vaart en Bouwkneght [1989) give data for the failure of UPS-systems.
They refer to this data as ·generally accepted figures·.
rectifier : ETTF = 4.5 years;
battery : ETTF = 11 years;
inverter : ETTF = 3 years;
defective set isolator : ENTF = 20, N = number of inverter failures;
bypass system : ENTF = 20, N = number of inverter failures;
8.3.5. Suntio et al. (1989) give the following data for a standby UPS:
Inverter : ETTF = 10.3 years
Battery charger : ETTF = 17.1 years
Transfer switch : ETTF = 22.8 years
pI" ter
aattery
S.._
Figure 17: True UPS (left) and standby UPS (right); from Suntio et al. [19891.
8.3.6. Bakker [1989] mentiones the following data, as given by compagny A for their
UPS.
8.3.8. Dialynas and Koskolos [1991] use data for failure of UPS for a reliability study of
an industrial power system. Redundant UPS's are used. They use the following data.
rectifier : ETTF = 27.4 yr ; repair time = 1 hour;
inverter : ETTF = 5.5 yr ; repair time = 1 hour;
main time to discharge battery: 8 hours;
probability of static interrupter not successfully isolating faulted inverter: 1 %.
8.3.9. Prescott et al. [1991] use a value of ETTF = 35 years for the failure of a UPS
plant.
This low value is due to the constant heating and stress produced in the power
semiconductors.
The new single-conversion on-line designs are said to have a higher reliability:
SWkswiU'h
,-------lC
- SappiJ1'DaCewimucWtyanUable
.-
~=----a-
~
- '" '" - -
I! '--_...J-- -'"
Silpplrnme wIda taiUtJ fIiJun! - Supply rowt wttb oUlky .,aiiIbIt
•-
-. l
T •- Supply I"Mlte wid! ~. faihlre
Figure 18: Single conversion UPS (left) and dual conversion UPS (right);
from Lee [1991J.
Table 40 summarizes the life time values for components of Uninterruptable power
supplies. Table 41 summarizes these values for complete UPS systems. For batteries,
switches and busses no survey data were available. This makes it hard to judge the
worth of the different values used in reliability studies.
The only survey available gives a lifetime of about 1 year for the inverter, making it by
far the most sensitive part of the UPS. Remarkably, all reliability studies use a higher
reliablity for the inverter: ETIF = 3 - 10 years. The lower values is however confirmed
by [IEEE, 1987) and [Lee, 1991) who give UPS lifetimes of 2 and 1 year, respectively.
All other studies use UPS lifetimes that are probably much too optimistic.
From the available information I would suggest 0.5 to 2 years for the inverter and 10 to
30 years for the rectifier.
Section Reference inverter rectifier battery bypass load-bus DC· bus Remarks
switch
8.1.2 IEEE 1991 291 d 26 yr
8.2.1 IEEE 1974 300 d 26 yr
8.3.2 suntio and White 1988 15 yr 50·100 yr
8.3.3 van der Veart 1989 3 yr 4.5 yr 11 yr 10 •
8.3.4 Scheider 1989 4~ 4 yr 12 yr
8.3.5 suntio et ale 1989 3.5 yr 6.2 yr 22.8 yr true UPS
10.3 yr 17.1 yr 22.8 yr stand-by UPS
8.3.6 Bakker 1989 6 yr 9E 14 yr 30 yr manuf. A
3.6 yr 7_6 yr 9.5 yr 16.5 yr 43.1 yr 11.4 yr manuf. B
8.3.7 Fiorine et al. 1990 10 yr 8 yr 14 yr 50 yr
8.3.8 Dialvnas et at. 1991 5.5 yr 27.4 yr 100 *
8.3.11 Warren 1992 6 yr 20 yr 11 yr 22-45 yr
All values in this chapter are for 1000 meter of cable, unless otherwise noted I
9.1.1, Green and Bourne [19721 give average component failure-rates for electrical
components. For cables they give:
9.1.2. Kloeppel et al. [19901 give recommended values of component data for reliability
studies. They were based on data from several industries in Eastern Germany, as well
as from the public supply. They recommend the values below:
9.1.3. The IEEE gold book [IEEE, 1991 1 recommends the ETTF values given in Table 42.
Table 42: Recommended values according to IEEE Gold Book [IEEE, 1991J.
The IEEE gold book recommends the following ETTF values for for cable joints with rated
voltages between 600 and 15,000 Volts ..
thermoplastic
ETTF = 1325 year;
average repair time = 15.8 hours;
median repair time = 8.0 hours.
The IEEE gold book recommends the following ETTF-values for cable terminations for
rated voltages between 600 and 15,000 kV.
thermoplastic
ETTF = 239 year;
average repair time = 10.6 hours;
median repair time = 11.5 hours.
thermosetting
ETTF = 3260 year;
average repair time = 451.0 hours;
median repair time = 11.3 hours.
9.2.1. Dickinson (1962) gives the results of an AlEE survey held in 1959 after the
reliability of electrical equipment in industrial plants. the survey covered 33 compagnies
with 58 plants. The results for power cables are reproduced below.
9.2.2. Connor and Parkins (1966) report about a 14-year survey of failures in networks
with nominal voltages between 2 and 33 kV. The records of some 130,000 km.years
were available. For underground cables the following values are found:
Table 43 gives the relative contributions of the different faulure causes to the failure
rate:
Table 43. Contribution of different causes to power cable failures, according to Connor
and Parkins [1966J
The most serious single fault cause is human agency. This is (according to the authors)
mainly due to the increasing use of excavators and other mechanical aids. Since 1951
the fault rate due to human agency has increased in both urban and rural areas. The
most likely times for this type of fault to occur are round 9.00 am and round 3.00 pm.
For failures in the underground cable itself, follows from the above data:
The last four columns give, respectively: the industry average of the actual downtime
per failure; the median plant average of the actual downtime per failure; the average
estimated time to fix the failure during 24 hour work day in case of repair of the failed
components and in case of replace with a spare.
The survey resulted in the ETTF-values and corresponding confidence intervals for cable
joints for rated voltages between 600 and 15,000 Volts, as shown in Table 45.
type of joint ETTF c. i. average actual down time estimated restore time
(years) (hours) (hours)
industry i plant repair restore
All tvoes of insulation
all 1000 [800 2000]
above ground and aerial 1200 [600 7500]
in duct or conduit below ground 1150 [850 1800] 36.1 31.2 14.7 5.5
thermoelastic 1300 [900 2300] 15.8 8.0 12.6 22.0
thermosetting 800 [400 5000]
paper insulated lead covered 950 [600 2250] 31.4 28.0 30.0
Table 45. Data for cable joints according to the 1972 IEEE survey [IEEE, 19741
The survey result for cable terminations are given in Table 46.
type of termination ETTF c. ;. average actuaL down time estimated restore time
(vears) (hours) (hours)
industry 'plant reoair restore
All types of insulation 1650 [1350 2100]
o • 600 VoLts
Above ground and areal 7900 [4500 32000] 3.8 4.0 8.0 8.0
600 - 15 000 Volt 1130 [850 1700] 198 11.1 34.6 40.6
Above ground and areaL 1130 [850 1700]
in trays above ground 3000 [1700 12000] 8.0 9.0 48.8 58.3
in condui t above ground 780 [435 4000]
aedal cable 540 [380 1000] 48.5 11.3 15.3 18.0
duct or conduit below ground 3300 [1850 13000] 25.0 23.4 28.8 30.0
thennoDLastic 240 [150 600] 10.6 11.5 12.0 12.0
thermosetting 3300 [2100 7000] 451 11.3 30.2 42.8
paper insulated lead covered 1300 [850 2500] 68.8 29.2 39.0 30.0
Table 46. Data for cable terminations according to the 1972 IEEE survey [IEEE, 19741
9.2.4. Braun [1986] presents some results of the failure data kept by the Northwest
Underground Distribution Committee of the Northwest Electric Light and Power
Association. Their annual report on component reliability is only concerned with natural
failures. All failures caused by abnormal external means, such as through dig-ins or
damage prior to installation are not intended to be included in the data. The author
mentiones that there are still problems with field people not reporting the material
failures. All failure rates reported should therefore he considered on the low side. For 15
kV-cable he finds the ETTF-values in Table 47.
The results for low-voltage (oS 600 Volts) cables are given in Table 48.
Figure 19 shows the ETTF for 175 mm 2 and 220 mm 2, 15 kV, HMWPE-cables plus the
confidence interval for the consecutive years. The author only gives the size of the
population for 1983. It is assumed that the size of the population did not change. There
is a clear decrease in ETTF for 175 mm 2 as a function of time. No explanation for this
'~r---------------------~
5 ,.
,L-__________ ~ ________ ~
1~----------~----------~
1In 1171 1113 1171 117. 1113
ob .. rved y.. r ob ..fwd , ••r
Figure 19. ETTF for 175 mm2 (left) and 220 mm2 (right) 15 kV HMWPE cables,
according to Braun [1986J. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence intervals.
From the 1983 data, for which the population size has been given, confidence intervals
can be determined:
For primary splices, 15 kV, molded rubber, the 1983 data results in:
ETTF = 470 years; c.i. = <400,550 years>.
In the two latter cases, there is not enough data for a confidence interval.
Table 49: Data for underground MV networks according to Ferran et al. [1986J.
The results for about 70,000 km of underground LV network are given in Table 50. From
the text one can conclude that these values include all failures in the network, i.e. not
only those in the underground cable.
year EnF c. i .
1982 12. I yr. <11.8-12.4>
1983 12.1 yr. <11.8·12.4.
1984 13.2 yr. <12.8·13.5.
1985 12.5 yr. <12.3'12.6.
Table 50: Data for underground L V networks according to Ferran et al. [1986J.
--
lQ)rignated paper isolation
Year EnF c. i.
5. 00 00 000 000 00 .. ~
.-..
1980 27.3 yr. <26.2·28.6. /
1981 32.9 yr. <31.4·]4.5.
e /
1982 32.3 yr. <30.8·33.8> •• /
1983 44.3 yr. <42.0-46.8> •
.! 40 .~
~
. -Imprlgnated pap.,
1984 53.2 vr.
00 000 000
<50.3-65.4> /
•"~ _r
/
- -
'80- '84 36.0 yr. <35.3·36.8. "-XLPE
XLPE insuLation
Year
1980
EnF
30.3 yr.
c. i.
<28.4·32.3.
31
Y . - .. .. _. _. 00 000
Table 51: Data for underground MV Figure 20. Trent in cable life time, according
cables according to Ferran et al. to Ferran et al. [1986J.
[1986J.
The trent in reliablity is shown in Figure 20. It can easily be seen that the reliability of
cables increases. As the values for both isolation type are about the same and remain
about the same, one can conclude that the failure mechanism may have nothing to do
with the type of isolation. Before 1980 the newly installed cables were mainly paper-
The values found for cable joints are shown in Table 52.
9.2.6. One of teh Dutch regional electricity authorities, NV PNEM. performed a survey
after the reliability of components in their 10 kV network, covering the period 1980 -
1986 [van Amelsfoort et al.,1986). It resulted for cables in:
9.2.7. Waumans [19861 presents the result of failure registration in a number of medium
and low-voltage networks in the Netherlands, during 1979 through 1984. The results
are summarized in Table 53.
9.2.8. During 1987 VDEN registered all failures of power system equipment in Dutch
medium-voltage and low-voltage distribution networks [VDEN, 19881. For the 400 Volt
networks they registered 2006 failures in 69,692 km of underground cable, leading to:
For 10-12.5 kV the survey results in a subdivision of failure causes for underground
cables, joints and terminations.
Table 54. Data for 400 Volt cables according to VDEN survey (VDEN, 19881.
9.2.9. Pijls (1988) analysed failures in the electricity supply to a number of chemical
plants during 8 years. For a 10kV cable connection he finds
The typical cable length in the system under study is one kilometer.
From the failure data collected we find for cable terminations of 10 kV cables:
The results of the survey over the period 1980-1986 are given in Table 55. The results
of the survey over the period 1980-1988 are given in Table 56 for LOPE and XLPE
insulated cables [Blechschmidt et al.,19911. Table 57 gives the results of the survey
over the years 1987 and 1988, i.e. the difference between the two tables above. The
differences between these three tables are considerable.
10 kV 20 kV 30 kV
ETTF c. i. ETTF c.i. ETTF c. i ..
XLPE 260 [240 285] 330 [305 360] 38 [33 45J
LOPE 112 [100 128] 34 [32 36) 26 [23 30)
PVC 25 [23 28) 18 [15 23) 7.3 [6 9)
EPR 32 [28 36) 80 [60 115) 39 [33 46)
Table 55: Cable data over 1980 - 1986, according to Blechschmidt [19891.
10 kV 20 kV 30 kV
ETTF c.L ETTF c. i .. ETTF c. i ..
XLPE 325 [30OJ50) 250 [240 270) 35 [3~42)
LOPE 150 [135 170) 27 [26 28) 23 [21 26)
Table 56: Cable data over 1980-1988, according to Blechschmidt et al. [1991].
10 kV 20 kV 30 kV
ETTF c. i .. ETTF c. i. ETTF c. f ..
XLPE 540 [470 650) 183 [170 200) 33 [27 41)
LOPE 270 [200 400) 16 [15 In 17 [14 20)
Table 57: Cable data over 1987 and 1988 (difference of Table 56 and 57).
Table 58: "Ageing" data according to REA survey [Dedman, Bowles, 19901.
9.2.12. Franke [1990) observed, during 12 years, failures in a chemical plant in Eastern
Germany. Early failures in the wear-in phase (1.5 .. 2 years) have been removed from the
data. For 6 kV cables he finds:
9.2.13. Horton et al. [1990) provide estimates of the failure rates of underground
distribution system components. Data on molded rubber splices was available since
1982 from NELPA (Northwest Electric Light and Power Association) surveys:
70 % of the faults were caused by foreign influences (dredges, trench work and stones),
10% by atmospheric overvoltages (the systems under study contained some 5000 km
of overhead lines),
20% by material faults
9.2.15. Morrison and Arhart [1991] give data for cable system performance in the period
1961-1990. Data has been collected from 36 plants of a major industrial manufacturer.
Their results are given in Table 59. A subdivision in failure location is given in Table 60.
Incorporating only failures in the cable itself leads to the lifetime expectations given in
Table 61.
ETTF c.; .
All cables 41 years <35 49>
EPR 29 years <Z3 41>
HMllPE 26 years <ZO 38>
other 66 ye.rs <51 91>
ETTF c.;'
All cables 49 vrs [41 59]
EPR 30 yr. [Z3 4Z]
HMWPE 35 yr. [Z6 56]
Other 8Z vr. [6Z 1Z0]
Table 61: Only failures in the cable itself, according to Morrison and Arnhart [1991J.
9.2.16. Bovy et al. (1991) analysed the outage occurances in some 4000 km of
underground 10kV cable of a Dutch utility, during 6 years. For 1 km of underground
cable they find:
9.2.17. Verplanke (1991) studied failures that occured in the power system of a
chemical industry in The Netherlands between 1970 and 1991.
9.3.1. Dickinson [1957) gives a typical value of ETTF = 12 years for 1 km of cable
2,400 volt and up. and a typical value of ETTF = 22 years for 1 km of cable 600 volt
and below.
Typical repair times are 28 hours if a spare length is on hand and 41 hours if the run is
too long for the spare length.
For cable joints in industrial power systems he gives a typical value of:
9.3.2. Dickinson [1960) uses the following values for power distribution systems for
refinery process units. The values are based on several published papers and on records
obtained from refineries.
tee joint. rubber or equal : ETTF = 1000 years ; repair time = 30 years.
9.3.3. Capra et al. [1969) use the following data for a reliability analysis of 12 kV
underground distribution systems of Pacific Gas and Electric.
They use the following estimated time range for different operations in underground
distribution systems:
9.3.4. Bocker and Kaufmann [1977] use the following values for 10 kV cable in a public
distribution network:
9.3.5. Lonsdale and Hitchen [1977] use the following value for underground cable in a
public distribution network in the Nothwest of England. The data were based on an
examination of system performance over recent years:
ETTF = 42 years.
9.3.6. Chang [1977] uses the following data for single-phase lateral cable to evaluate
distribution system design:
ETTF = 40 years;
9.3.7. McNab [1977] uses the following values for 33 kV cable in a public distribution
network in the South of Scotland:
9.3.8. Allan, Dialynas and Hormer [1979] use the following data for cables in a reliability
study of a distribution system:
ETTF = 31 years;
repair time = 33.5 hours;
time to maintenance = 4 years;
maintenance time = 8 hours.
9.3.10. Nelson and Johnson [1982] compare three distribution voltages for the power
supply to a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant. They use the following reliability
data (based on 1974 IEEE survey and on other available data) for cables:
9.3.11. Ruoff and van Meeteren [1983] use a value of ETTF = 53 years for short-
circuits in underground distribution cable.
9.3.12. Williams and Mudge [1983] use a value of ETTF = 25 years for an 11 kV
incoming cable and of ETTF = 20 years for a feeding cable. The repair time used is 30
hours. The values have been drawn from distribution system statistics.
9.3.13. Billinton and Goel [1986] use the following data for cable sections in a reliability
analysis of an existing 14.4 kV distribution network in Saskatchewan, Canada:
ETTF = 59 years;
repair time = 8 hours.
9.3.14. Dialynas and Allan [1986) use the following values for cables, when including
local generation in the reliability analysis of power distribution systems:
ETTF = 31 years;
repair time = 33.5 hours;
time to maintenance = 4 years;
maintenance time = 8 hours.
ETTF = 30 years;
repair time = 33.5 hours.
9.3.16. Goldberg et al. [1987) use the following values for an underground 21 kV feeder
of Pacific Gas and Electric:
9.3.17. Billinton [1987) uses for cable sections in the Annaheim distribution system of
the Saskatchewan Power Corporation:
ETTF = 60 years;
repair time = 8 hours.
9.3.18. Dialynas [1988) uses a value of ETTF = 120 years for 150 kV cable.
9.3.20. Dialynas and Papadopoulos [1989) use a value of ETTF = 20 years for 20 kV
cables.
9.3.21. Fransen [1989) uses a value of ETTF = 195 years for short circuits in cables.
The value is based on 7 Y. years of failure data in the power system of a large chemical
plant. The author does not relate the ETTF value to a length of cable. Typical cable
lengths in the system under study are between one and two kilometers. The repair time
used is 24 hours. The author mentions 19 failures in 7 Y. years in about 500 cables. This
leads to c.L = < 125. 375 years>
9.3.22. Roos [1989) compares the supply reliability for different configurations of
medium voltage power systems. For cable strings he uses the following values:
Independent failure of cable string due to failure in station (for 1 cable string):
ETTF = 170 years;
repair time = 6.5 hours
11 kV lead-covered cable:
ETTF = 180 years
repair time = 48 hours
9.3.25. Horton et al. [1989b] use their Distribution Reliability Assessment Model
(DREAM) to compute reliability indices for distribution feeders. They use the following
cable data:
HMPWE cable
ETTF = 32 years
repair time: 90 minutes
XLPE cable
ETTF = 530 years
repair time = 90 minutes
9.3.26. Allan and Inga-Rojas [1990] describe a method for distribution system reliability.
In an example they use for cable connections:
ETTF = 10 years.
9.3.27. Sallam et al. [1990] calculate. as an example. reliability indices for the MV-
network of Port-Fouad. Egypt. For 3-phase cable they use the followinf values:
9.3.28. Mohan Rao and Sekhar [1990] compare the reliability of a number of distribution
systems. They use the following data:
9.3.29. Dialynas and Koskolos [1991] use a value of ETTF = 120 years for 1 km of
cable. The repair time used is 96.0 hours. The cable in their system is operated at 20
kV.
The average repair time, from historical outage data, is 302 minutes for cables in a rural
system and 229 minutes for cables in an urban system.
They refer to two internal reports of Pacific Gas and Electric as a source for these
values.
9.3.31. Kjelle and Sand [1991] give the following values for cables in distribution
networks in Norway:
22 kV rural network
ETTF = 20 years; repair time = 13.7 hours;
11 kV urban network
ETTF = 22 years; repair time = 13.7 hours.
9.4.1. Bar et al. [1990) use a Delphi-method to determine the position of the knee in the
bath-tub curve, i.e. the age where the wear-out phase starts to become-important.
J.( t) = :;:. ·t m- 1 ,
From 764 failures in 98,797 km. years of 15 kV HMWPE unjacketed cable in operation
by San Diego Gas and Electric they find:
m = 1.3; 8 = 85 years.
Assuming a constant failure rate would have led to ETTF = 129 years.
m = 1; 8 = 380 years.
An analysis of 18 years and 4700 km of 220 mm 2 cable again gives a constant failure
rate
m = 1; 8 = 1200 years.
The higher value for 220 mm 2 cable might be attributed to lower average voltage stress
in the larger cable.
If the results of surveys on cable reliability show one thing, it is the difficulty in obtaining
usefull fail data. Braun [1986] shows a large yea r-to-yea r variation in failure data, for the
same system. The year to year variation is considerably larger than the confidence
intervals. The number of failures in a certain year is thus no good predictor for the
number of failures in later years. Also Ferran et al. [1986]. Blechschmidt et al. [1991]
and Dedman and Bowles [1990] show this large variation. The change in failure rate is
due to, among others, ageing of cable types, introduction of new cable types, changes
in the amount of excavations. Variations might even be due to improved registration of
failures.
As an example, Figure 64 gives the prediction from 1980-1986 data and the value for
1987-1988, according to Blechschmidt [1989] and Blechschmidt et al. [1991]. For the
prediction a 99.5% confidence interval has been chosen.
For 10 kV cables the prediction is too pessimistic, for 20 kV cables it is too optimistic;
for 30 kV cables the prediction turned out to be fairly reasonable.
Despite these problems I will try to obtain some acceptable values for cable lifetimes,
Tables 65 and 66 summarize therefore the available data. Table 65 gives data from
suveys; Table 66 data used in reliability studies. The values hold for failures in an
underground cable itself (i.e excluding failures in cable joints and in cable terminations).
Between the strong variations, values between 40 and 75 years appear to be acceptable
for reliability studies. These values are indeed often used in reliability studies.
Data for cable terminations are summarized in Table 67 and Table 68. Values between
1000 and 3000 years seem to be reasonable.
Data for cable jOints are summarized in Table 69 and Table 70. Values between 500 and
2000 years seem to be reasonable.
Table 65. Summary of cable life times: recommended values and data from surveys.
Table 70. Summary of cable joint life times: data used in reliability
studies.
10.1.1. Kloeppel et al. [19901 give recommended values of component data for reliability
studies. The values were based on data from several industries in Eastern Germany, as
well as from the public supply. For busbars they give a relation between the failure rate
of the circuit-breakers, AC.b.' and the failure rate of the busbar, Abusbar:
open busbars:
10.1,2. The IEEE gold book IIEEE,19911 recommends for switchgear buses (indoor and
outdoor):
insulated switchgear with rated voltages between 600 and 15,000 volts
ETTF = 885 yrs; repair time = 28 - 261 hours;
All these values are for one "unit". The number of units is the number of connected
circuit breakers and connected switches.
-120- Busbars
10.2. Data from surveys
10.2.1. The 1972 IEEE sponsored survey [lEEE,1974] resulted in the following values
for switchgear busses: (the unit was the number of compartements).
The survey resulted in the following values for bus ducts (1 unit = 1 circuit meter):
10.2.2. O'Donnell [1979) presents the results of an IEEE survey after switchgear bus
reliability of industrial plants and commercial buildings, performed in 1977. This survey
was held because a major controversy emerged in the results of the 1972 survey [IEEE,
1974). Insulated bus showed a higher failure rate than bare bus, but data were heavily
influenced by chemical industry. The new survey shows the opposite of this, with less
chemical industry influence. The main results are given below:
Insulated buses
above 600 V : ETTF = 890 years ; c.i. = <650, 1450>
Bare buses
all : ETTF = 1000 years ; c.L = <700, 1700>
below 600 V : ETTF = 1250 years ; c.L = <850,2350>
above 600 V : ETTF = 500 years ; c.L = <300,1800>
The number of units is the number of switchgear connected circuit breakers and
connected switches.
The following data have been found for the repair time:
Insulated busses
repair "round clock" average repair time : 87 hours
median repair time : 24 hours
repair "normal hour" average repair time : 430 hours
median repair time : 240 hours
Bare busses
repair "round clock" average repair time : 39 hours
median repair time : 32 hours
repair "normal hour" average repair time : 154 hours
median repair time : 24 hours
-121- Busbars
10.2.3. The PNEM survey [van Amelsfoort et al.,1986) resulted for busbars (the authors
refer to ·substations") in:
10.2.5. Wahlstrom et al. [1988] describe the experience with new 84 kV-420 kV GIS
in Sweden, between 1974 and 1986. By observing a population of 27 GIS with a total
number of 102 bays they find:
ETTF = 40 years
The repair time is between 2 and 4 days.
This low value is due to the problems in manufacturing, installation and maintenance of
this new type of switchgear. This value is therefore not representive for GIS switchgear.
10.2.6. Bovy et al. [1991] analysed the outage occurances in the 10 kV networks of a
Dutch utility for a timeperiod of 6 years. For one section of a 10kV busbar they find:
ETTF = 10.000 years
repair time = 3.2 hours
ETTF = (phase-to-earth faults) = 5000 years
probability of mUltiple fault following phase-to-earth fault: 41 %
10.2.7. Verplanke [1991] studied failures that occured in the power system of a
chemical industry in The Netherlands between 1970 and 1991. He gives the following
data:
Busbars 50 kV and 11 kV
-122- Busbars
10.3. Data used in reliability studies
10.3.1. Snaith [1977) uses the following values for the electricity supply of a nuclear
power station:
10.3.2. Bocker and Kaufmann (1977) use the following values for the 10 kVequipment
in a system substation 10/0.4 kV in a public distribution network.
10.3.3. Allan et al. [1977) use the following values for 11 kV busbars in the electrical
auxiliary systems of power stations:
ETIF = 200 years;
repair time = 10 hours;
time to maintenance = 1 year;
duration of maintenance = 20 hours.
10.3.4. Allan et al. [1980) use, in a reliability study of electrical auxiliary systems of a
power station, the busbar reliability data shown in Table 71.
11 tv 220 120 2 8
3.3. tv 220 48 2 8
415 V 220 24 2 4
10.3.5. Adams and Jasmob [1981) use the following values for busbars in a distribution
system:
ETIF = 42 years; repair time = 3 hours.
10.3.6. Nelson and Johnson [1982) compare three distribution voltages for the power
supply to a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant. They use the following reliability
data (based on 1974 IEEE survey and other available datal for one section of a bus:
-123- Busbars
34.5 kV : ETTF = 1580 years.
For the bus duct between the power transformer and the switchgear they use:
10.3.7. Ruoff and van Meeteren [1983] use a value of ETTF = 1000 years for busbar
faults in distribution systems.
10.3.8. William and Mudge [1983] use a value of ETTF = 5000 year, with a repair time
of 60 hours, for an 11 kV busbar. These values have been drawn from distribution
system statistics.
10.3.9. Koval [1983] uses the following values for secondary busses in an industrial
power system:
10.3.10. Dialynas and Allan [1987] describe a reliability model for a power distribution
network with local generation. For busbars they use:
10.3.11 . Dialynas [1988] uses a value of ETTF = 45 years for 1 km of busbar (i.e ETTF
= 45,000 year for 1 meter of busbar).
11 kV bus bars
ETTF = 200 years
repair time = 120 hours
10.3.13. Duke et al. [1989] assess the reliability of an industrial distribution system. For
an 11 kV bus they use the following data:
10.3.14. Allan and Inga-Rojas [1990] describe a method for distribution system
reliability. In an example they use for busbars:
-124- Busbars
ETTF = 200 years.
10.3.15. Sallam et al. [1990] calculate, as an example, reliability indices for the MV-
network of Port Fouad, Egypt. They use the following data.
10.3.16. Mohan Rao and Sekhar [1990] compare the relaibility of a number of
distribution systems.
They use the following data:
10.3.17. Allan at al [1991] present a reliability test system for distribution networks. For
bus bars they use the data given in Table 72.
10.3.18. Dialynas and Koskolos [1991] use a value of ETTF = 45 years for permanent
failures on busbars. The repair time is 19.0 hours. Maintenance is performed every two
years during 4.0 hours. The busbars in the system under study are operated at voltages
of 150 kV, 20 kV, 6.6 kV and 380 V.
10.3.19. Prescott et al. [1991] use a value of ETTF = 200 years for the failure of an
HV distribution switchboard, with and average repair time of 120 hours. For the LV
distribution switchboard they use ETTF = 330 years and an average repair time of 24
hours.
10.3.20. Dortolino et al. [1991] use in a substation reliability avaluation study a value
of ETTF = 100 years for busbars, with a repair time of 24 hours. Maintenance is
performed once every 3 years during 8 hours.
-125- Busbars
10.4. Ageing data
10.4.1. Bar et al. [1990] use a Delphi method is determine the position of the knee in
the bath-tub curve, i.e. the age where the wear-out phase-starts to become important.
For the busbar in a low-voltage substation they find, in case of
good circumstances : 53 years;
average circumstances : 49 years;
bad circumstances : 29 years.
-126- Busbars
10.5. Conclusions
The failure rate of a busbar is dependent on the number of sections connected to the
busbar, as well as on the actual length of the bus duct. Some authors therefore give a
failure rate per section. The 1972 IEEE survey [IEEE, 1974] also gives a failure rate per
meter. Unfortunately not authors refer their data to the dimensions of the bus, making
a comparison with others difficult.
The results for busbars are summarized in Table 73 and Table 74. From this survey a
value between 500 and 2000 years for the ETTF of one section might be concluded. The
influence of failures per meter of bus duct appears to be neglectable.
Most reliability studies use a value of some hundreds of years for the whole busbar. This
is consistent with the results from surveys.
Table 73. Summary of busbar lifetimes: recommended values and data from surveys.
-127- Busbars
Section Reference ETTF ""r Remarks
section meter busbar
10.3.1 snatth 1977 200
10.3.2 BOeker and Kaufmam 1977 300
10.3.3 A.lIan et at. 1977 200
10.3.4 Allan et at. 1980 220
10.3.5 Adams and Jasmb 1981 42
10.3.6 He 1son ard Johnson 1982 1580
10.3.7 Ruoff and van Meeteren, 1000
1983
10.3.8 Will i ams and Muclge 1983 5000
10.3.9 Koval 1983 500
10.3.10 Dialynas and Allan 1987 1000
10.3.11 Diahnas 1988 45 000
10.3.12 WhithiM. 1989 200 11 tv
500 415 Volt
10.3.13 Duke et at. 1989 750
10.3.14 Allan and InRa-Ro"ss 1990 200
10.3.15 Sallam et al. 1990 300
10.3.16 Mohan Rao and Sekhar 1990 3000 480 Volt
300 13.8 tv
10.3.17 Allan et al. 1991 1000
10.3.1S Dialvnas and Koskolos 1991 15
10.3.19 Prescott et al. 1991 200 HV
330 LV
10.3.20 Dortolino et at. 1991 100
Table 74: Summary of busbar life times: data used in reliability studies.
-128- Busbars
11. LARGE MOTORS
11.1.1. Green and Bourne [1972) give average component failure-rates for electrical
components. For motors they give;
11.1.2. IEEE standard 500 [lEEE,1983) gives reliability data for components of
nuclear-power stations. The data has been derived by a Delphi-method combined with
the results form several surveys and databases. For motors the following values are
recommended (catastrophic failures only)
11.1.3. Kloeppel et al. [1990) give recommended values of component data for
reliability studies. The values were based on data from several industries in Eastern
Germany, as well as from the public supply. For motors they recommend the
following values:
11.2.1. Dickinson [19621 gives the results of an AlEE survey held in 1959 after the
reliability of electrical equipment in industrial plants. For electric motors the results
are presented below.
Synchronous motors.
180 kW and larger: ETTF = 15 year ; c.i. = <10,20>
Induction motors.
180 kW and larger : ETTF = 9.2 year ; c.i. = <8, 11>
150 kW and below: ETTF = 19.5 year; c.i. = <19,20>
11.2.2. A 1981 survey [lEEE,19821 in the electric utility industry reported, for motors
750 kW and up and not over 15 years of age, for insulation-related failures:
11.2.3. O'Donell et al. [1983,19841 performed a survey after the reliability of motors
of rated power 200 hp (150 kW) and higher. The population under study consisted of
1141 motors in 75 plants of 33 compagnies. A total of 360 failures occured in 5085
unit years i.e.
Table 76 gives a subdivision to rated voltage. The rated voltage has no influence on
the reliability of a motor.
Table 78 gives a subdivision to motor speed_ The higher the speed of the motor, the
higher its reliability_
ETTF c. i .
0-720 RPM 10 yr <8. 13 yr.>
721-1800 RPM 14 yr <12. 16 yr>
1801-3600 RPM 19 yr <15 26 Yr>
11.2.4. Albrecht et a!. [1987] describe a survey after the reliability of large motors in
power stations. The survey was limited to generating units above 150 MW, low-
voltage motors above 75 kW and all medium-voltage motors, generator units that
went into service between January 1969 and December 1979.
The report covers information on 5797 motors in service at 132 generating units
owned by 56 utilities. From the total population they find:
None of them shows a confidence interval overlapping the overall confidence interval
<28,31 >.
bearing related : 41 %
stator related : 37 %
rotor related : 10 %
11.3.1. Snaith [1977) uses the following value for the electricity supply of a nuclear
power station:
11.3.2. Allan et al. [1980) use the following data in a reliability study of electrical
auxiliary systems of a power station:
Table 79 summarizes the available data on large motors. From the surveys follows an
ETTF value between 15 and 30 years.
Albrecht, P. and J.C. Appiarius, E.P. Cornell, DW. Houghtaling, R.M. McCoy, E.l,
Owen, D.K. Sharma
ASSESSMENT OF THE RELIABILITY OF MOTORS IN UTILITY APPLICATIONS.
IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol. 2 (1987), p.396-402.
Allan, R.N.
EFFECTS OF PROTECTION SYSTEM OPERATION AND FAILURES IN COMPOSITE
SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION.
Electric Power and Energy Systems, Vol. 10 (1988), p.180-189.
-136- References
Anderson, B.G. and J.C. Declerq, P. van Miegroet, H. Rohsler, H.G. Schutte
THE RELIABILITY OF HV SUBSTATIONS WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO THE SECONDARY
EQUIPMENT.
Electra (CIGRE), no. 111 (1987), p. 17-23.
Aquilino, J.W.
REPORT OF TRANSFORMER RELIABILITY SURVEY - INDUSTRIAL PLANTS AND
COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS.
In: Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Technical Conference, 12 - 15 May 1980,
Houston, Texas. Ed. by. B.Bridger et al..
New York: IEEE, 1980. P. 31-39.
Aquilino, J.W.
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iOin<:ihoven Universitv of Technology Research Reports ISSN 0167-9708
Coden: TElTEDE
[acul!.L of El8ctrica I Enqineerinq
1257) Maaqt, P J! 1\, and H,G. ter Morsche, J.L.M. van den Broek
A SPXmL RECONSTRUCTION TECHNIQUE APPl.ICABLE TO MICROWAVE RADIOMETRY
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EHQhoven UniversitY of Tpchn~ R-es8arch_R-eoorts IS~JN 01fi7--9708
Coden, TEl JEDE
1165i Wellen, J,S. and F. ~"out" M.r.e. Schem"ann, E. Sm,l\lruqqe, L N,F. KeulIDdfln
MANUFACTURING AND CHARACTERIZATION OF GA!5mGlAS MULTIPLE QUINTliMWELl. RIDGE mEGUIDE
LASERS
WT Report 92+20j 1m. ISBN 90-6\44-165-6
12681 Boom. H. Vdo den and W VdO Etten, W,H.C, de Krom. P VdO Benneko •. f. HUl)skens,
L. NJessen, F de LelJe~ = ~
AN OPTICAL ASK AND fSK PHASE DIVERSITY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM,
RUT Report 92+266, 1992. ISBN 90-6144-168-0