Project Management

Lecture 7
Outline
⚫ PERT – introduction
⚫ Time estimate
⚫ PERT method steps.
⚫ Example 1
⚫ Example 2
 Ground rules for lectures

Do not
Do not leave class Ask ME
Turn your
Arrive on distract or early questions if
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time annoy your without you are
off
classmates. permission confused.
in advance.
 Introduction
⚫Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) was
developed by Navy special project office in co-operation
with other consulting firms for Polaris missile project.
‫ﺗم ﺗطوﯾره ﻣن ﻗﺑل ﻣﻛﺗب اﻟﻣﺷروع اﻟﺧﺎص ﻟﻠﺑﺣرﯾﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﺎون ﻣﻊ ﺷرﻛﺎت‬
‫اﺳﺗﺷﺎرﯾﺔ أﺧرى ﻟﻣﺷروع ﺻﺎروخ‬
Polaris.
 Introduction (cont.)
⚫ Since the activities are to be performed in future, the
time for any task is just an estimation.
⚫ However, a certain estimation of time may be difficult.
⚫ PERT has been most frequently in the research and
development type projects, such as
◦ Space industry.
◦ Aerospace industry.
◦ Defence products industry.
 Time estimates
⚫ There are three kinds of time estimates
1. The optimistic time estimate
● This is the shortest possible time to complete an activity
2. The pessimistic time estimate
● This is the maximum time to complete an activity
3. The most likely time estimate
● Represents the time that an activity would most often require if
normal conditions prevail.
conclusions
⚫  
 PERT Method
⚫  
Example 1
Activity Optimistic time Most Likely Pessimistic
1-2 6 9 18
1-3 5 8 17
2-4 4 7 22
3-4 4 7 16
4-5 4 10 22
2-5 4 7 10
3-5 2 5 8
 Example 1(cont.)
1. Determine the critical path and it standard deviation.
2. Determine the probability of completing the project in 35
days.
3. Determine the probability of completing the project in 40
days.
4. Within how many days would you expect the project to be
completed with a probability of 95%?
5. Calculate the probability of 10% deviation in the project
completion time?
6. If there are a penalty of $1000 if the project completion time
is 32 days, what is the expected value for this project?
 Example 1
Activity Optimistic Most Pessimistic
time Likely
 
1-2 6 9 18 10 4
1-3 5 8 17 9 4
2-4 4 7 22 9 9
3-4 4 7 16 8 4
4-5 4 10 22 11 9
2-5 4 7 10 7 1
3-5 2 5 8 5 1
 Example 1(cont.)
10

10
7
2

10 30
19
0 9
30
0 19
11
1 4 5

8 5
9

3
11

9
Example 1(cont.)
⚫  
Example 1(cont.)
⚫  
Example 1(cont.)
⚫  
Example 1(cont.)
⚫  
Example 1(cont.)
⚫  
 Example 2
1. What is the earliest completion Activity Predecessor Optimistic Most Likely Pessimestic
date? A -- 4 6 8
2. What is the critical path? B -- 1 4.5 5
C A 3 3 3
3. If management has set a D A 4 5 6
completion deadline for 24 E A 0.5 1 1.5
hours, what is the probability F B,C 3 4 5
that they will meet this G B,C 1 1.5 5
H E,F 5 6 7
deadline?
I E,F 2 5 8
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5
K G,I 3 5 7
Example 2 (cont.)
Predeces Optimisti Most Pessimist
Activity sor c Likely ic
A -- 4 6 8 6 4/9
B -- 1 4.5 5 4 4/9
C A 3 3 3 3 0
D A 4 5 6 5 1/9
E A 0.5 1 1.5 1 1/36
F B,C 3 4 5 4 1/9
G B,C 1 1.5 5 2 4/9
H E,F 5 6 7 6 1/9
I E,F 2 5 8 5 1
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 1/9
K G,I 3 5 7 5 4/9
Example 2 (cont.)
⚫  
References

Punmia, B. C., and K. K. Khandelwal. Project Planning and

Control with PERT & CPM, 2006 (Chapters 5, 6 and 7)
QUESTIONS
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