Professional Documents
Culture Documents
AM
Or
WHAT MATTERS
IS PROFIT
J. Welles Wilder Jr,
THE
ADAM THEORY
OF
MARKETS
or
WHAT MATTERS IS PROFIT
By
Welles Wilder
This book is published by and available from
CAVIDA LTD.
P.0. BOX 128
5615 McLeansville Road
McLeansville,N.C. 27301
It is the intent of CAVIDA LTD. to publish
and maintain the availability of
IMPORTANT NOTICE!
PATENT PENDING
The techniques and processes for manipulating
data(whether manually or by computer program)
as disclosed herein are the subject of pending
patent applications. Such patent rights will be
strictly enforced against violators.
“Adam is getting in tune with the universe, not insisting that it get in
tune with me. To insist that it get in tune with me would be arrogant,
and it would be my own arrogance that would destroy me. To get in
tune with it is to be humble, willing to follow it where it goes.
Jim Sloman
PROLOGUE
In the fall of 1983 I received a phone call from someone I
had never heard of by the name of Jim Sloman. Jim told me that he
had discovered something about the markets and that he was willing
to sell it to me for a large sum of money. He said that if l would come
to Chicago he would show it to me.
I had received calls of this nature before which had resulted
in a number of wild goose chases so l began asking a number of ques-
tions about Jim's discovery. It appeared that Jim had discovered a
way of predicting what markets would do in the future... that is, when
the next highs and lows would occur. Apparently, it was not based
on anything that was currently known such as the works of Gann or
Elliott or others.
l asked Jim how I would know the value of what he wanted
to sell to me. He said if I came to Chicago that he would show it to
me and then I could decide if I wanted to buy it. I was sufficiently in-
trigued by what Jim said that I decided to risk a plane ticket to Chicago
and a day of my time.
When I got to Chicago, Jim showed me his discovery, which
he called DELTA. I was amazed to learn that Jim had discovered that
there was, in fact, perfect order in all markets. Understanding this
order made all markets predictable indefinitely into the future with a
very high degree of accuracy. And, it was very simple... no
mathematics... and yet, no one had ever discovered it before. I was
absolutely astounded by what I had seen.
l paid Jim the large sum of money he wanted right on the
spot and caught the evening flight back to Greensboro. I spent the
next six months proving to myself that DELTA was real by going back
many years in history to see how it held up. I also worked it out for
many markets other than the ones Jim had used. After all the research
was completed I found that DELTA had been just as accurate in history
as in the present, no matter how many years I applied it to historical
data.(Now, in 1987, it has continued to maintain the same accuracy
as it did historically.)
1
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
In 1985 I founded the DELTA SOCIETY INTERNATIONAL
(DSI). Members of this secret society have the DELTA information
about future market turning points. The DELTA information will be
made available to members until the year 2000. At that time member-
ship may or may not be available.
What I have said up until now is background information for
what l am going to say next. Indeed, without this background, what
l am going to say next would not be believed ... or if it were, you
would think that l was a complete idiot.
There is one more thing that must be said. Why? Why have
I published in an inexpensive book what I paid a million dollars to
learn? The answer is three-fold and will be given in inverse order of
importance to me.
Money, of course, is a consideration. The price of this book
was carefully thought out. If it were free or of negligible cost, many
would not read it because something of great value is not usually given
away. If it were very high priced, it would prohibit many who need
it from reading it. So I have tried to price it in between these two
extremes. Also much of the profit from this book will go to a trust over
which I have no control. Among other things, the trust actively sup-
ports charities world-wide that are oriented toward helping children.
Another reason is that making this knowledge available will
not affect its usefulness to me as a trader. I know that it is a truism
that the more people who know something about the markets, the
less useful it is. However, the more general this knowledge is, the
less effect it has on markets even if many people know it. For exam-
ple, in the 1800's, even before the Dow theory of technical analysis
was known, things like support and resistance must have worked quite
well because few, if any, traders knew what it was or how to use it.
Today, every technical trader knows about support and resistance
...and it still is an effective tool because it is so general. Adam's
effectiveness will be diminished by published knowledge of it, but only
slightly, because it is so general.
The main reason is that I want to make this discovery
available to others. It's a contribution that I feel is a privilege to be
able to make.
I'm glad too that Jim Sloman will get the credit for discover-
ing Adam while he is still around to enjoy it.
6
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
markets tomorrow. Every few weeks, there is a new, better, more prof-
itable system to add to the scenario. Whenever trading is not going
well ... then he can switch to another set of systems.
1 ADAM IS.. 8
2 A FAIRY TALE ... 10
3 TO SUCCEED IN MARKETS WE MUST. 14
4 THERE IS REALLY A LOT LESS TO TRADING THAN MEETS THE EYE 18
5 WHAT MATTERS IN MARKETS? - PRICE 22
6 IS versus SHOULD 23
7 AVOID ARBITRARINESS 25
8 TRADING SYSTEMS 27
9 WHAT MATTERS IN MARKETS?- TREND 33
10 WHAT IS A TREND? 34
11 WHAT IS THE MOST BASIC FORM OF REPETITION? 35
12 WHAT DOES EXACT REPETITION LEAD TO? 36
13 WHAT LEADS TO THE GREATEST SYMMETRY? 39
14 PROJECTING THE SECOND REFLECTION 40
15 CONSTRUCTING THE SECOND REFLECTION CHART THE EASY WAY 42
16 WHAT DOES THE PREDICTION CONTAIN? 47
17 WHICH MARKETS TO TRADE 49
18 REVIEW OF MARKET SELECTION 56
19 HOW ABOUT TOPS AND BOTTOMS? 59
20 THE MOST IMPORTANT STATEMENT ABOUT MARKETS 64
21LET YOUR PROFITS RUN 70
22 WHAT IF WE GET STOPPED OUT? 71
23 DISCIPLINE 75
24 REVIEW OF ADAM THEORY 77
25 WHEN DO WE ENTER A TRADE? 79
26 MARKET EXAMPLE - COTTON 81
27 RECAP OF FIRST EXAMPLE 100
28 THE TEN TRADING RULES 102
29 THE TEN RULES EXPANDED 104
30 MARKET EXAMPLE - EASTMAN KODAK 110
31MARKET EXAMPLE - COFFEE 117
32 VISUALIZATION 122
33 THE PLAYFUL COMMODITY TRADER 127
APPENDIX 128
1
ADAM IS.
Adam is about making profits trading the markets ... any
freely traded markets anywhere in the world. Adam presents a special
way to look at markets and an even more special way to trade markets.
Adam is the purest, simplest, and easiest way to make profits trading
the markets ... using only what the markets are telling us about
themselves.
But Adam is more than that. Adam shows the trader the
most probable course the market will take in the future. Using
Adam technology the trader is able to project and actually see
that course. The trader then asks the question, “Do l want that trade?”
If the answer is yes, then the trader enters the market.
Adam is applicable to any time frame. That is, Adam can be
applied to a daily chart, a weekly chart, a monthly chart, an hourly
chart, a five minute chart, etc. Adam is a visual thing. It is best seen
on a simple bar chart. No mathematics are ever involved.
Now, using a daily bar chart, go back to the question, “Do
you want the trade?" The answer is "yes", so the trader enters the
market. The next day, the trader again applies Adam technology and
again obtains the most probable course the market will take. He then
asks the question, "Do I still want the trade?" Eventually the answer
will be “no” and Adam technology will tell the trader how to get out
of the trade.
Adam does all this by looking only at what the market is
saying about itself ... never introducing anything arbitrary. Adam is
the simplest and purest concept... and yet it eludes most traders.
8
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Or, to put it another way, Adam looks at what would go into
the blank space in the sentence: To succeed in markets we must
It's a safe bet that the greater a secret the simpler it is. That
is why it is missed, because it is too simple. The mind feels very much
at home with the complex and difficult; it enjoys the challenge of
understanding them. But the mind usually just cannot comprehend
the simple: “This is a great truth? How can it be so ridiculously simple?”
9
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
2
A FAIRY TALE.
At this point you are anxious to jump right in and learn Adam.
You want to know immediately how to find "the most probable course
the market will take in the future". We could do that ...go right to
it and finish this book in another twenty or thirty pages. If we did, there
are few of you who would really see it, understand it, appreciate it,
and most important ... benefit from it.
It took Jim over one year, concentrating on it full time, to
discover and develop the Adam concept. When you get through
reading this book, you will find that a lot of things that you learned
in this book, you wil think you always knew! The reason you will think
you always knew them is because they are so simpie. That is a
paradox. You did not really know them until you understood them.
The only way you will understand what you think you have always
known...(which you really haven't known) is to understand why you
really have not known it.
That is why it is absolutely necessary that you learn Adam
from the beginning. Do not jump ahead. Take it as it is painfully and
meticulously presented, step by step, and appreciate the logic and
beauty and purity of the concept. Even then, many of you who read
this will not really know it... because you don't really know something
until you do it... that is, actually do it in the market.
Read now, with understanding, a modern day fairy tale
... by Jim Sloman.
10
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
fact that all the players in Marketland had opinions about which way
the market would go.
And not only opinions. The players had systems, methods,
evidence and analysis to back up their opinions. They had Dactyl
numbers and Pdontiff waves, Xandon lines and Zigdar harmonics.
They had the legacies of the old masters, Oerbot and Caljen. They
had inventories and earnings, money-flow studies, astrology charts
and the benefits of 4th-order spectrum analysis, all of which was ex-
tremely fascinating. Yes indeed, the players had many marvelous
things.
The problem, though, was that sometimes the methods called
for the market to go one way and it would go the other way. This never
failed to astonish everyone concerned, and there were many long
discussions about how or why the market could be so perverse.
However, it was usually agreed that this had just been a temporary
aberration by the market and that the methods and analyses were
as good as ever.
But one afternoon something happened to one of the players,
a man named Mr. Beright. And he was never the same again. Mr.
Beright had made a detailed study of Azerhof numbers, becoming
one of Marketland's recognized experts on the subject. And the
Azerhof numbers were now quite plainly stating that the market
needed to go up, so Mr. Beright had taken a solid long position.
Unfortunately, quite soon after Mr. Beright had gone massive-
ly long, the market started down. This did not worry Mr. Beright ex-
cessively, since he realized the market had to go up. Yet the market
(strange creature that it is) wouldn't pay any attention. It kept going
down. And down. And down. And Mr. Beright(understandably,
since we've all lived through these moments) got quite anxious and
depressed. But he knew it would all get better very soon, just as soon
as the market turned around and went the way it was supposed to go.
Now all good fairy tales have children in them and this one
is no exception. Mr. Beright, it turns out, had a beautiful five year-old
11
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
daughter named Herenow, and just as he was contemplating his sad
fate, Herenow walked into the room. Sensing that something was
wrong, she asked what it was.
12
13
THE ADAM THEOAY OF MARKETS
3
TO SUCCEED IN MARKETS WE MUST.
Anyone who has traded the markets to any extent has, at one
time or another, found himself in the classic situation that Mr. Beright
was in. In the next several chapters we are going to learn several
important things that are vividly pointed out in The Modern Day Fairy
Tale.
Think a minute and see if you can determine what Mr. Beright
did...what he really did, to succeed in the game of “markets”.
Remember, when you finish reading this book you are going
to think you already knew most of what was in it. I challenge you,
before you turn the page, make at least three guesses. The answer
is one word.
14
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
If you guessed the word SURRENDER you are way ahead
of the class!
What was Mr. Beright doing wrong when he was losing? Well,
he was doing a number of things wrong. One thing was that he was
fighting... fighting the market. The market was going against him
... it was his opponent ... it was taking his money.
So what did he do right? He surrendered the battle. He
stopped swimming upstream and turned around and went with the
flow.
Jim Sloman tells the following true story.
“One of the greatest professional traders l ever met we'll call
Robert. Robert would take very large sums of money out of the
markets week-in and week-out. When I was a green trader starting
out in Chicago I had the good fortune to be able to trade next to him
for awhile. We were "upstairs" traders; we traded from an office in
a building next to the Chicago Board of Trade. And one morning, about
a week after I'd started, I came into the office early and Robert was
there alone. We were trading the S&P 500 at the time, and naturally
I took the opportunity of asking his opinion of what the market would
do that day. His answer truly startled me.
"I don't know." Robert said.
15
16
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
because it seems so tempting to combine both."Why not?" we ask.
“Why not use both - Adam and whatever else we've got in our tool
kit?"
Because it won't work that way. Either we're approaching the
markets with total detachment, or we're not. Adam, we might say, is
a jealous mistress.
*★★★ ★
17
18
Not that such things can't ever make valid predictions, but
that such predictions and analysis can badly cloud our direct
perception of reality. They put a"spin" on the way we are looking at
the market. And that spin is too costly, because it takes away the third
most valuable thing that we have concerning markets - our
ignorance.
19
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Now all this is true if we are in the markets to make money.
If, on the other hand, we are in them for their entertainment value,
or for the “action”, or for the sheer fascination of them, well, that's
another matter.
20
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
accurate, then immediately sold 50 contracts, making him short 10.
Then over the next minute or so he built up to a short position of 60
contracts. In one minute he had gone from long 40 to short 60.And
he made a very handsome profit on that short.
This dramatically illustrated to me something that was verified
on many other occasions: That William was, more than anything else,
interested in remaining flexible, so that he could faithfully mirror the
market. No opinion of any kind was ever allowed to get in the way
of that flexibility. And the results spoke for themselves."
21
Price is reality.
★ ★★★ ★
22
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
6
IS versus SHOULD.
“As said before, the greatest secrets and principles are always
the most simple. Simple things are overlooked again and again; their
very obviousness is their greatest disguise.”
If we really think about it, if we really think about it, we will
see that the only thing that ever matters about a market is which way
it is moving right now. Everything else is - totally - irrelevant. If every
system and method in the world says that a particular market should
be moving down here, but it's actually moving up - then up is the
way it's going right now. And that's all that ever matters.
Yes, this means that all our favorite ways of analyzing and
thinking about markets need to be abandoned - and not just
downgraded or partially abandoned, either, but completely
abandoned.
23
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Why? Because the two won't mix. If we are looking at some
system or method - even if just partially, or with a grain of salt, or
"just to see what it says"- to that extent we are not focused com-
pletely on what the market is doing right now.
Herenow's advantage over everyone else was that she had
no"knowledge" about the market to get in the way. So she could see
the market directly without any mists or filters to cloud her vision.”
24
25
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
That is the least arbitrary thing we can do ... but which recent low
point?
How about our ¥1,000 target to take profits? The least ar-
bitrary thing to do is to let the market tell us when to take profits. One
way to do this is to simply keep moving our stop in the direction of
the trade until we are stopped out.
It is obvious then that if we want to use the simplest and
purest approach to trading we would want to do whatever is the least
arbitrary. We would want to let the market tell us how to trade.
26
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
8
TRADING SYSTEMS
27
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
DO NOT WANT IT TO LAG..?Right. It should be able to
react immediately to any change in the market.
ACCURATE MEASURING ...? Yes, without interference
from us... the market measuring itself.
NOT ARBITRARY ...? Most important ... that it not be
arbitrary
MIRROR THE MARKET...? Thought you would never say
it! Yes, it must go with the flow... a complete surrender to what the
market is doing.
28
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
How about ELLIOTT WAVE...? A fairly complicated predic-
tive tool oriented toward what SHOULD happen. But iet me say right
here, that all of these things can be effective in trading markets.
We are not in any way trying to say that these things don't often work,
and work well. We are simply trying to learn more about a concept
by using some things with which we are already familiar.
How about LINEAR REGRESSION...? Less arbitrary, but
oriented toward SHOULD. It is also a lagging indicator.
How about CONTRARY OPINION...? Tends to be in the
SHOULD area by predicting market turns. Also lagging.
How about TREND LINES...? Tend to be predictive and
somewhat arbitrary depending on the points picked and the time frame
to use for the line. However, trend lines are one of the least arbitrary
tools because the market itself determines where the lines are drawn.
29
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
our minds are looking for is some system that will nail everything down
for us - buy here, sell there - some system that will be so automatic
that we won't need to actually look at the market and look into its
essence.
But may I tell you the truth?(At least as far as I can com-
prehend it, anyway. The truth is infinite, and this little brain of mine
is very, very finite.) Any system whatsoever is bound to fail sooner
or later, not because the system is necessarily bad, but because it's
inherent in the very nature of systems themselves.
30
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Now, most of them are losing badly. Why?
Their designers seem to think it's because they overlooked
a few refinements, and that minor adjustments here and there will
do the trick. Maybe, but I doubt it. At least not for a permanent solution.
Here's what one had to say (he made about ¥8 million last
year):“I try to control the downside. The only way you can be consis-
tent and control the risk of the downside is to have hands-on deci-
sion making.”
31
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
“I think there's an evolution toward those that use judgment in con-
junction with numbers. I think the people who are just ripping and
reading numbers aren't going to have any money left."
Success In markets, to put it another way, is not so much
a matter of "knowledge" and analysis as it is a function of con-
sciousness, of being able to let go and flow with the continually-
changing way it is. To look at reality. Which way is it actually going?"
32
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
9
WHAT MATTERS IN MARKETS?
Ultimately, what matters in markets is PROFIT PER DAY.
The most basic thing that matters in markets is PRICE.
The other thing that matters in markets is the TREND.
The TREND is everything that matters about PRICE.
Let's ask the question, what is a trend? How can we define
a trend ... any kind of trend? When I was in high school there was
a time when all the guys wore white buckskin shoes. We all carried
around a little bag of chalk dust to keep them clean. Everybody who
was anybody had to have a pair of these shoes. This was a trend.
What was happening?
33
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
10
WHAT IS A TREND?
Something is repeating.
It's as simple as that. Something is repeating. Can we get
to a more basic definition than that?
No.
Now that we are at ground zero, lets ask the next logical
question.
What is the most basic form of repetition?
Suppose we have two points in two-dimensional space.
2
1
3
●
(B)
(A) 4
(C)
●1987 Cavida, Ltd. 5
34
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
11
WHAT IS THE MOST BASIC FORM OF REPETITION?
Exact repetition.
2
1 (C)
3
(B)
(A) 4
5 1987 Cavida, Ltd.
Point (C) fulfills the trend in progress better than any other
point in two-dimensional space. It is the resultant projection of points
(A) and(B).
Now, the next logical question is, What does exact repeti-
tion lead to?
Suppose we focus on point (B) and then survey the other two
points relative to point (B). What can we say about points (A) and (C)?
What does exact repetition lead to?
Think about it for a few minutes before you read the next
page.
35
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
12
WHAT DOES EXACT REPETITION LEAD TO?
Symmetry.
Exact repetition leads to symmetry.
Lets look at our points again. Let's let point (B) be the NOW
moment. Everything to the left of (B) is in the past. Everything to the
right of (B) is in the future.
(A)
Past NOW Future
36
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
The answer is 2. The second most likely place that point (C)
could be is at 2 which is a single reflection from (A).
(B)
(C)
(A)
Past NOW Future
(D)
(C)
(B)
(E)
(A)
Now if we add point (D) to the diagram the most likely place
for point(E) to be is the second reflection as shown.
37
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Now, before we go on, let's define what we mean by a single
reflection and a double(or second) reflection. We'll start out by
designating each quadrant by a number. Quadrants I and ll are in
the past. Quadrants Ill and IV are in the future. If we go from quadrant
I to quadrant Ill, that is called a single reflection. Also if we go from
quadrant ll to quadrant IV, that is a single reflection because we have
passed one axis... the vertical axis.
However, if we go from quadrant I to quadrant IV we have
a double reflection. Also, if we go from quadrant ll to quadrant Ill we
have a double reflection because we have crossed two axes... the
vertical axis and the horizontal axis.
1 I
(D)
(C)
(B)
(E)
(A) ●1987 Cavida, Ltd.
ll IV
Past NOW Future
38
39
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
—
PROJECTING THE SECOND REFLECTION
h
14
b
a
b)
S
e' f
g
h' i
c
9 尸心
f e
ll IV
Past NOW Future
Since we are talking about markets, let's say points a through
j are market closes. Every point in the past has a corresponding point
in the future. The historicai close is b. The corresponding future point
is b'. The most recent close is a and is on the NOW moment.
Each of the future closes is projected from its corresponding
historical close. This is done by duplicating the distance and angle
of each past point through the most recent close on to the projected
future point. For example, to project point j into the future, a straight
line is drawn from point j in the past, to the NOW Point close. The
distance from j to the NOW point close is measured and this same
distance projected from the NOW point in a continuing straight line
which locates point j.
40
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
As each new close occurs, the NOW point must be moved
to the new close and all the points in the past must again be projected
into the future.
(Hold on! Don't throw up your hands and walk away... we
are going to show you an easy way to do this ... so easy, in fact,
that your five year-old can do it in a few seconds...but please bear
with us for one more illustration which is necessary to really under-
stand what we are doing.)
In the following illustration we are going to project just two
days using the high, low, and close of each day.
l Ⅲ
b
C
a C
●1987 Cavida, Ltd.
b
ll IV
Past NOW Future
Note that the most recent day, designated a, is centered on
the horizontal axis at the NOW point. Note that in projecting day b
that the high of the historical day b becomes the low of the projected
day b.The low of the historical day b becomes the high of the projected
day b. Note that the close falls on the opposite end of the range on
the projected day as on the historical day.
This is a projection of just two days. Can you imagine what
it would be like to project fifty historical days... every trading day
...on 20 or 30 different markets? Fortunately there is a simple easy
way to do this. Think about it for a few minutes and see if you can
figure it out before you read the next page.
41
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
15
CONSTRUCTING THE SECOND REFLECTION CHART THE EASY
WAY
We have stated that the second reflection is the market's
own prediction of the highest probability of where it will go in the
future... continuously updated.
Get ready for a shock!
Here is how you can obtain - in a few seconds - the
market's own prediction of the highest probability of where it will go
in the future.
[1] Place a piece of clear acetate over your chart.
[2] With a pen that will write on acetate, begin with
the most recent day and trace each day on your
chart going back in history as far as you wish.
[3] Now turn the piece of acetate over just as you
would turn the page of a book.
[4] Next grip the bottom edge of the acetate and turn
it over from bottom to top so that your hand ends
up at the top of the page of acetate.
[5] Now overlay the first day (on the left hand side)
of the acetate with the last (most recent) day on
your bar chart
You have just constructed a double reflection chart!
Once you have traced the complete history of your bar chart
one time, then each day, simply line up the acetate overlay and trace
over the most recent day. Then flip-flop the acetate, align it with the
most recent day and look at the market's own prediction of the highest
probability of where it will go in the future.
Or, if you prefer, let your five year-old do it for you!
This procedure is illustrated on the following two pages. Turn
the page so that you have a "see through" paper overlay covering the
chart on the left side and a“see through” paper overlay covering the
chart on the right side.
42
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
S & P 500 INDEX CONTRACT SIzE ¥500 TIMES INOEX
MIN TIC
VALUE
.05 POINT
525.00/CONTRACT
MARCH1987 EACH GR1O
VALUE
.5 POINT
5250/CONTRACT
INDEX AND OPTION MARKET
IRADINC HOURS 8130-3115 CI 310
305
[1] Place a piece of clear acetate over your chart.
[2] With a pen that will write on acetate, begin with the most
300
recent day and trace each day on your chart going back in
history as far as you wish. 295
290
285
280
275
270
265
260
255
250
245
240
235
230
43
S & P 500 INDEX CONTRACT 5izE 5500 TiWES INDEX
uN:nc
vatut
.05 POIN7
825.00/CONTRACT
MARCH 1987 tacn anio 3POINT
INDEX AND OPTION HARKEI VALug 5250/CONTRACT
IRADINC HOURS B+30 - 3115 CI 310
305
[1] Place a piece of clear acetate over your chart.
[2] With a pen that will write on acetate, begin with the most 300
recent day and trace each day on your chart going back in
history as far as you wish. 295
290
285
280
275
270
265
260
255
250
245
240
235
230
44
S INDEX CoNTRACT 4128 8500 TiNEs INOEX
Te .os Foint
MARCH
1NOEXA0
987
*ARKE'
Vatut
acn enio
AtUE
326.00/CONTRACT
.3 Poiti
3250/CONTRACT
imaoissmdiam )3? 31
305
[3] Now turn the piece of acetate over jut am
the page of a book. 300
4] Now grip the bottom edge of the acetate ad
lrom bottom to top so that your hand endn up
the page of acetate. 295
[5] Now overlay the first day (on the left hand
acotate with the last (most recent) day on your 290
You have just constructed a double refleel
285
24
270
265
26(
21
250
245
240
235
230
28 4 11 18 25 8 18 22.296 13 20 27 3 10 1724 8 1522 29 5 12 26 2 9 1623 2 9 16 23 30
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
1987 Cavida, Ltd.
445
S & P 500 INDEX CONTRACT SIZE5500
MiN TiC
VALUE
TIMESINOEX
.05 POINT
525.00/CONTRACT
MARCH 1987 EACN GRIO .5 POINT
INDEX AND OPTION HARKET VALuE 5250/CONTRACT
TRADING HOURS 8130-3115 CT 310
305
[3] Now turn the piece of acetate over just as you would turn
the page of a book. 300
[4] Now grip the bottom edge of the acetate and turn it over
from bottom to top so that your hand ends up at the top of
the page of acetate. 295
[5] Now overlay the first day (on the left hand side) of the
acetate with the last(most recent) day on your bar chart. 290
You have just constructed a double reflection chart.
285
280
275
270
265
260
255
250
245
240
235
230
46
16
WHAT DOES THE PREDICTION CONTAIN?
The prediction contains all the information that is known by
the market at the NOW moment. This prediction is made by the market
itself. It cannot be improved upon. This is the market speaking pure
and simple. There is no arbitrary input into this analysis. The market
alone is saying what it should do without any help from us.
HOW DO WE TRADE A MARKET USING THE DOUBLE
REFLECTION CHART?
We simply look at the prediction made by the double
reflection chart and we ask ourselves this question. Do I want the
trade?
If what I see is what the market will do in the future, do I want
the trade today? The answer is either YES, NO, or I'm not sure. Only
take the trade if the answer is YES.
The question should be based only on what we see while
looking at the double reflection chart. That's all. So, let's ask the
question, do we want to take the trade. The date is January 14, 1987.
Our regular bar chart indicates that this market is on the move. It has
done one of the least arbitrary things that a market can do... it has
moved up past all of the previous tops we can see on our chart. That
tells us a lot.
When we construct our double reflection chart the market
is telling us that the highest probability is that this market will move
about up 20 points ... up over 280 before it starts a retracement.
It also says that this should be a fast move to the 280 area.
Do we want the trade today? YES ... definitely.
This is the kind of situation we should be looking for. First,
the market is strong enough to take out (move past) old highs showing
that it is ready to go somewhere. Second, our double reflection chart
predicts a rapid move.
If we are looking at a market that is in a down trend and want
to go short, we want to see the market weak enough to take out old
lows. Then we want to see a projection for a fast down move on the
double reflection chart.
47
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
S & P 500 INDEX CONTRACTS(ZF S500 TIMES INOEX
MIN TIC
VALUE
.05 POiNT
MARCH1987 FACH GR1D
525.00/CONTRACT
.5 POINT
INDEX AND OPTION MARKET VALUE 5250/CONTRACT
TRADING HOURS 8130-3115 CT 310
305
300
295
290
285
280
275
270
265
260
255
250
245
240
235
230
284!1 18 25 1 8 1522296 l 1320 27 3 10 17 241 8 15 22 i 29 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 2 9162330
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
●1987 Cavida, Ltd.
48
17
WHICH MARKETS TO TRADE?
49
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Jim emphasizes this with a true story.
“Many traders have the idea that if a market goes down far
enough it becomes"cheap" or"oversold" and one should look for a
place to buy it; or conversely,that if a market goes up far enough
t becomes "expensive" or "overbought" and one should look for a place
to sell it.
50
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
William took a sip of his soda.“Let me put it this way. I'm
certainly not looking to buy them here."
“Would you sell them here?”
“Of course I would.”
“But they ve come down so far.”
“I know,” William said.“That's the point.”
Just then the market broke below its lows and started down
again. William loaded up with another 60 contracts - short - over
the next minute. The longs ran for cover, the market broke another
150 points, then pulled back and William covered his short. He had
made about ¥50,000 in a little under half an hour.
51
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
“And on the up side," I said, "if it kept going up, you'd keep
buying it - forever?"
“Forever. If it kept going up. Id buy it up to the moon.”
52
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Okay, so how do we know that a market is going up? Simple.
Because it's going up.
What other reason could we give if we had to make that deci-
sion by seeing a chart flashed on a screen for a fraction of a second?
We know it is going UP because it is not going down and
it is not going sideways.
Let's examine another old market adage in light of Adam
Theory.
“Get on the train before it leaves the station.”
That means buy a market before it starts to go up. Why would
anyone want to do that? How do you know that market is going to
go up. It's just as likely to go down. It also is just as likely to continue
to move sideways. Remember, in the final analysis, what matters
is dollars per day.
So why would anyone want to buy a market before it starts
to move? Yet, most traders do just that. Most traders lose.
Jim likens market selection to a hobo catching a train.
And what is the best way for the hobo to know that the train
is going west? When it's already going that way.
He'll wait for a train that's pulling out of the station heading
west, and then just climb on.
53
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
In fact, successful trading has a flavor very much like asking
“Who's buried in Grant's tomb?” The basic principle involved is, when
we think about it, absurdly obvious, absurdly simple. That is why it
is so often overlooked, and rarely followed. We are looking around
the world for something that is right in front of our eyes.
One legendary and wildly successful trader, when asked on
a TV show if he could condense into one statement the secret of his
success, said the following: “There is a lot less to trading than meets
the eye." Then he added that it had to do with all the different stuff
that he doesn't pay attention to. (Bold type is mine.)
To repeat: The best evidence a hobo has that a train is going
to go west is that it's already doing so. Actually, it's the only evidence
that really matters. He can have all kinds of theories about trains, but
the bottom line is: Which way is it moving?
Then he simply climbs on the train in the direction it's
already going.
He's simply going with the flow, surrendering to the obvious,
floating with the river instead of battling it.
Sound too simple? Watch. It gets worse:
The best evidence that a market is going to move is that
it's already doing so.
The best evidence that a market is going to go up is that
it's already doing so.
The best evidence that a market is going to go down is
that it's already doing so.”
★ 肃 ★
54
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Let's look at one more old market adage in light of Adam
Theory before we move on. Ill bet you have heard this one too.
“Don't chase the market”
Again, let's ask the question, how did anyone know that
market was going to go up? Suppose we thought that market should
go up. What we think a market SHOULD do doesn't matter a whole
lot, does it? What counts is what it IS doing. Yet, most traders will
just not chase a market. They believe that they should have gotten
on board before the move started. They count how much profit they
could have made already if they had already been on board. They
can think of many reasons not to buy that market now. Do you
recognize some of these reasons?
55
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
18
REVIEW OF MARKET SELECTION
56
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
pressure) causes it to accelerate or decelerate. The same if it's going
down. The same if it's doing nothing.
Therefore, if you want to know what the most likely thing
is that a market will do in the future, take a look at what it's doing
right now.
If a market is going nowhere, it will keep on doing that until
it changes. Why get on until it does?
From that seemingly obvious statement an important truth
derives:
Only trade in markets that are already moving. If a market's
been going nowhere for a while, why play in it? What it's doing right
now is going nowhere. Why get involved until it's clearly on the move?
And the corollary to that is: Let's only play in those markets
that are moving the most.
In the fall of 1982 my trading group was trading almost
exclusively the S&P 500 contract. (We were all independent traders,
but traded from the same office to make it more fun and to have more
clout with the clearing firms.) And trading that contract was a wise
choice:
The stock market had violently exploded from a multi-year
bottom in August, and it was in a“moving” mode. Every week we would
get at least two or three moves where the S&P would violently move
up or down 200 points or more in an hour or less. Making money was
easy.
After the first of the year, however, things slowed down. The
market went nowhere all that spring. And the intraday moves tended
to fizzle out almost as soon as they got going. Yet most of us kept
trading the S&P's out of habit, and because we felt comfortable with
them.(The very best traders did not do this, however.) Making money
became very difficult. Some of the traders even went out of business.
57
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Yet during that spring several commodities were making
major moves. How much wiser it would have been if we had simply
shifted over to the commodities that were moving. How simple! 一
Yet, believe it or not, it never occurred to most of us.
There seems to be an analogy between a vibrating string and
markets. When a string on a musical instrument is plucked it continues
vibrating for a while before it damps down to zero. Markets are like
that. Once they're moving -"vibrating", as it were - they continue
moving for a while before slowing down. Those are the markets to
trade.”
58
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
19
HOW ABOUT TOPS AND BOTTOMS?
59
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
being long applies in reverse to being short.) Take a look at the
following diagram:
D
A
C.
1987 Cavida, Ltd.
B
In fact, all of our money will be made between C and E. Why?
First of all, we certainly don't want to get on at A. Why get
long when the market is still going down?
Picture our hobo and the trains again. He wants to catch a
train going west. If he catches a train going east he will have to wait
for the train to slow down, stop, reverse and then pick up speed going
west. Now that's absurd. Why not just catch a train going west in the
first place?
No hobo in his right mind would do that, yet I have seen many,
many traders do the exact equivalent and go long at point A. I myself
did it many times, and paid for it many times. I did it because I had
heard that you should buy on weakness, which is absolute nonsense.
I did it because some analyst or another told me that a turn was
imminent. I did it because I felt that the market had gone down "far
enough" or "too far.”
It wouldn't be too bad if we could be absolutely sure that the
bottom (B) wasn't far away (although still incredibly dumb), but in fact
in many cases B is still very far away. How many times did I go long
while the market was still falling and then pray for it to turn?
60
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
To go long at B is not much better because we won't know
for sure that B is a bottom until the market reaches C. B may be the
bottom, and then again, the market may keep falling for a long time
yet. I know. I watched it happen to me many times.
Even if B does turn out to be the bottom, it's still very bad
trading, because the only proof that B is the bottom is that the market
has risen to C. To go long at B, therefore, is to be predicting the
market, not a very wise thing to do.
(Yes, the market can sometimes be successfully predicted,
but it's still not a wise thing to do because following the market is
so much more powerful. Also, even trying to predict the market gets
you completely in the wrong frame of mind.)
61
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
“I don't believe that tops and bottoms can be picked by
anybody except liars. I try to just take the middle 50out of a move.
If I can do that, I've done ali I need to do.”
Another way of saying this is as follows:
Never look for a reversal.
Always just go with the way its going. Go with the trend. Don't
even think about looking for reversals.
The trend is your friend.
Once a fantastically successful trader made a thorough
computer study of the markets. Here's what he said about it:
“I created a bunch of numbers to spin through a computer,
trades that had made a lot of money in the past...I tried to make
explicit and test on the computer any idea on trading that had ever
filtered by me
I found that very few of the things people say work well
enough to make a profit... Now, if I were to give you an explanation
of what works in the market, what the numbers crunched out to mean,
I would say: 'The trend is your friend.'
★
62
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
The trader who did the computer study once summed up his
feelings about what's relevant and what's not in markets this way:
“Reality is price.”
63
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
20
THE MOST IMPORTANT STATEMENT ABOUT MARKETS
There is an adage that is a truism. In my opinion it is the single
most important statement ever made about trading. It is as follows:
Cut your losses short and let your profits run.
These nine words say it all. If we are talking about futures
trading where leverage is the name of the game and there is a time
limit to how long we may hold a position, there is no other way to make
a profit. Even if you day trade, you must let your profits run relative
to cutting your losses.
It is not as critical trading stocks where there is less leverage
and there is no necessity for exiting the trade, but to maximize profits,
it is still necessary to follow that adage.
Have you seen those dart boards that list markets in a buy
and sell column? The idea is to throw the dart and where it lands it
may say to sell T-Bonds, or buy wheat, etc. Well, I believe that a trader
could end up the year with a profit if he selected his trades with the
dart board ... reversed his position at the initial stop only ... and
simply followed the above adage. Someday, I plan to model this on
a computer using a random generator for trade selection. At any rate,
that gives some insight into how important those nine words are to
making profits in the markets... any markets.
We are now going to spend some time understanding what
those nine words realiy mean, then we will illustrate how to actually
trade the Adam Theory.
There is one thing that virtually all successful traders (who
carry a position longer than one day) agree on. It is this. If it were
not for the occasional big move, no one but day traders would be able
to end up the year with a profit. Another way of saying this is that
if you don't follow the big moves you will not make enough profit to
cover your small losses..because you will probably have as many
as, or more losses than profits. Therefore, the only way to win is for
your profits to be bigger than your losses.
64
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Let's first talk about losses. It is important to have the right
outlook about losses. Trading is a business. It may be a part time
business, but as with any business it has income and expenses. The
income for the business is the profit generated by your profit trades.
The expenses are commissions, charts, data retrieval, etc.
The business of trading can be very lucrative. But it is also thought
to be a dangerous business, therefore the insurance premiums are
relatively high. Your small trading losses are your insurance premiums
... your insurance against large losses.
The only way to keep from having large losses is to have small
losses. Small losses are the cost of remaining in business. It should
not bother us to have small losses. They should be considered as
a business expense. If we have a problem paying the insurance
premiums, we should be in a less risky business.
There is only one unforgivable sin in trading ... letting a
small loss turn into a large loss.
Adam Theory gives you a point to place your stop as you will
see. The stop may not be the same for all traders because the stop
is based on the question,"At what point do I not still want this trade?"
65
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
- and in that one time the market can slice our equity in half or
eliminate it altogether.
Thus, it is not enough to take an enthusiastic approach to
cutting losses short. What is necessary is to understand that cutting
losses short is something that must be practiced day in -day out,
trade in- trade out, forever. That there must be no exceptions, not
ever, for any reason whatsoever.
The first thing that will happen when we're thinking of riding
with a loss is that we will think of some good excuse to do so, and
the excuse will seem plausible and logical. That is when we need to
remember that there must be no exceptions ever. We always cut our
losses short, we never let them ride. Not even that one time when
it seems so tempting.
It almost goes without saying that a successful trader would
never, under any circumstances,"average down" or add to a losing
position. Why would we want to add to a position that's already losing?
How can we mirror the market that way?
The only kind of position that we ever want to add to is a
winning position. In that way we're following the market, going the
way its going, building on strength, surrendering the way it is.
Have you ever seen this? A trader takes a position and then
the market goes strongly against him. Then he holds on, hoping that
it will not go bad, and refusing to admit that it already has.
It's a safe bet that if we ever find ourselves hoping about the
market it's time to get out of our position immediately.
66
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Without an easy willingness to admit that we're wrong and
to get out when we're wrong, it is virtually impossible to consistently
be successful in markets.
If you take care of the losses, the gains will take care of
themselves.”
★★★
67
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
"In my experience I've only known one very successful trader
(outside the pit traders) who did not use stops, and he had a rapid-
fire style that was somewhat akin to trading on the floor. Everyone
else I've known who has been consistently successful has used stops.
I believe there's a reason for this.
68
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
I don't know how many times I was saved from near-disaster
by a well-placed stop order in a market that suddenly and explosively
broke out or broke down. Many times.
69
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
21
LET YOUR PROFITS RUN
One of the most arbitrary things one can do in trading is to
take profits too soon ... or at a target. Trying to do this puts us in
the SHOULD area. We are saying this is as far up as the market should
go. There should be a reaction here. We should be approaching a
top, etc,
The question is then"When to take profits?" The least
arbitrary thing to do is to let the market tell us. How many times have
you taken a profit and then watched the market keep on moving up
while you are sitting on the sidelines. If we are trying to mirror the
market, to follow the market, then it becomes obvious when to get
out. We just keep moving our stop up until the market turns against
us and takes us out.
Remember, by using stops and never taking much risk we
will have as many losses as profits...maybe even more losses than
profits. Therefore, the only way that we will end up at the end of the
year with a profit is that our average profit trades will be larger than
our average loss trades. This can only happen if we have some very
large profit trades. Very large profit trades can only come from
following the long term trends to the end of the trend.
Jim sums it up briefly:
“Where do we get out? The answer may seem strange:
Don't decide where to get out. Let the market decide.
The greatest single mistake we can make is not to cut our
losses short, every time. If we don't do that, we simply won't survive.
70
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
22
WHAT IF WE GET STOPPED OUT?
Sometimes we will latch onto a sharply trending market that
is so strong that the reactions are not severe enough to cause us to
get off the train and we ride it very nicely right to the top where it turns
and gets us out. Often, however, even very nice trends are interrupted
by reactions that are severe enough to cause us to jump off the train.
What do we do then?
This is the beautiful thing about Adam...it's so simple. Just
keep updating your daily double reflection chart and the market will
tell you when or if you should get back aboard. If the projection shows
you that the most likely thing the market will do is continue the trend,
then get back aboard.
Don't ever be afraid to get out quickly or to get back on
board quickly.
71
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
we are contemplating adding to our position, we have a choice of doing
the right thing or doing the wrong thing. The wrong thing would be
to buy or add to our position (assuming we are long) during the reaction
... when the market is lower than the high of the trend. The right
thing to do would be to add to our positon when the market has told
us that the trend has resumed... that is when it is moving into new
high ground and the second reflection chart tells us we would want
to add to the position.
In this way we are always going the way it's going, and we
only add to our position when we're already profitable. In other
words, we're selling (more) only on (further) weakness and buying
(more) only on (further) strength.
72
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
ls there some point where we would stop selling if the market
is still going down? Why would we want to? The last display of
weakness is just as valid as the first, if not more so. Who are we to
say it can't go down further from here?
Naturally, we're adding to our stop-loss order as we add to
our position.
73
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
not very complicated.
And they were willing to experiment. If it seemed to be going
up, but they weren't sure, they'd buy a little to test the water. If they
were proved right, they'd buy some more, and so on. And if they were
proved wrong, they'd get out at a small loss. No big deal.
In the meantime, what were most of the rest of the traders
doing? Believe it or not, we'd be looking for a reversal. Our thinking
was usually along the lines that the market had "gone too far" and
now it was "too late" to get on, so we'd be waiting for it to reverse.
Either that, or we'd be waiting for a pullback in order to get
on. (It's too expensive here, it's gone too far, we need to get it a little
cheaper.") Quite often, the market would just keep going, and by the
time we got our pullback to get long, William and Robert would be
selling to get out of their positions.
74
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
23
DISCIPLINE
75
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
He would completely wipe himself out in an afternoon.
Then he would borrow some money and start the process
all over again. I saw this happen several times.
Is this phenomenon restricted to Edward? No, indeed. Off
the top of my head I can think of half a dozen traders who follow the
same pattern.
During the intervals between disasters, Edward's trading
technique was quite fine and he would make handsome sums of
money. Can we call him a good trader then? No, I think not.
The legendary Jesse Livermore made many millions of dollars
during his lifetime and lost it all. Can we call him a good trader? No.
Making a lot of money isn't enough.
It's not how much we make, it's how much we keep that
matters.”
76
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
24
REVIEW OF ADAM THEORY
Just before we study the application of Adam to charts, let's
quickly review the basic points of Adam Theory.
WHAT IS ADAM?
Adam is a theory...about succeeding in markets. Adam
makes the statement, what matters in markets is profit per day.
TO SUCCEED IN MARKET WE MUST
Surrender.
WHAT MATTERS IN MARKETS?
Symmetry.
WHAT IS THE DEEPEST SYMMETRY?
Where the number of reflections equals the number of
dimensions. In a time/price function, the second reflection.
77
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
WHAT LEADS TO THE GREATEST SYMMETRY?
[1] The greatest velocity of the trend.
78
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
25
WHEN DO WE ENTER A TRADE?
79
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
of power to turn a market around from a long
established downtrend. When the new uptrend is
confirmed by repeatedly moving above the newly
established tops of the new uptrend, this is
significant. The reverse of the above would apply
to a well established uptrend for a short trade.
Clue # 3.Gaps and/or long range days. Apply the second
reflection chart for an entry decision when:
The market is relatively dull and suddenly, it gaps
up and/or the daily range increases significantly
showing that the market has waked up and
something is happening. This is especially
significant if it happens in combination with clues
#1 and #2 above. The reverse of the above would
be true for a gap down situation and a short trade.
Remember, the bottom line is dollars per day. We do not want
to just trade any market using Adam Theory, we only want to trade
markets which are doing something. We know that they are doing
something because they are already doing something.
In the following chart examples we will see these clues show
up over and over again. There will be times when you will see these
clues show up and then the move will fizzle out causing small losses.
As we know that is a necessary expense... our insurance, but you
will find that if you are patient and selective about entering a market,
you will maximize the bottom line ... dollars per day.
80
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.01 CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRID .02 CENTS
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE VALUE S100/CONTRACT
62
IRAD1NC HOURS 10・30-3100 Ei
60
58
Here is an example of clue #2 and clue
#3.A long term well-defined down trend
has been broken. The daily ranges have 56
increased and some gaps are establish-
ed on the upside. The market has taken
out previous tops 4 & 5 of the new up- 54
trend as well as lops 1.2.8 3of the down
trend.
52
We trace the uptrend from the bottom
on the acetate overlay. then turn the
overlay over like turning a page in a book 50
and then turn the overlay over again from
bottom to top. Now we line up the first day
on the overlay with the last day in the 48
chart. (The first day to the left on the
overlay is the same day as the last day 46
on the chart.)
44
42
HH 40
38
36
34
32
81
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.OI CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
MAY1987 EACH GRID ,02 CENTS
VALUE SIOO/CONTRACT
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE
TRADINC HOURS 10130- 3100 ET 62
60
58
56
54
52
50
Do we want to buy this market the next
day at point (1)? the projection shows the 48
trend continuing up to point B. but it also
shows a reaction (pull back) down to C
which is slightly below the proposed buy 46
point. We decide to wait for a mere
favorable situation. 44
42
B 40
Jl
38
(1)
36
C
tr 34
A
32
5 12 19 262 9 162 23307 142128411 18;25 l 8 1522296 1320:27 3 101724 l 8 15 22 29 5 12 19262 9 16:23
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
1987 Cavida, Ltd.
82
CONTRACT SIZF 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.Oi CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRID
VALUE
.02 CENTS
5100/CONTRACT
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE
TRAD1NC HOURS 10130・ 3+00 ET 下
60
Each day we continue to update the
double reflection chart and flip flop it to 58
show the markets projection. The pull
back that was indicated materialized and
the market moved back up. 56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
Nr
40
38
6
36
34
tist
32
83
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.OI CENTS
55.00/CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRID .02 CENTS
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE VALUE SIOO/CDNTRACT
TRADING HOURS 10130・3100 EI 62
60
58
56
54
52
On August 29th the second reflection
50
showed another pull back, but this time
we decided we would rather enter here 48
and sustain that projected reaction rather
than wait for another entry point because
the second reflection chart indicates that 46
the next reaction will stay above the cur.
rent price. We therefore bought our first
position of five contracts at point 2 at a 44
market price of 38.20. Since we must
always have a stop in the market, we 42
place our stop just below the last market
pull back at 34.00
40
(2)
38
36
STOP 34
t
32
12 19262 9 16 23307 14 C! 20 10 1 81522296 1320 273 10 17 24 8 15 22 295 21926 2 91623
JUN AUG
C0
MAY JUL SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
・1987 Cavida, Ltd.
84
3ZIS IOvu1NO3 S81000'os
NO1100 MJiL NIW
3n7vA
S1N33 IO
10V&lN00/009S
286IAVW 0ia9 H3v3 S1N3320
39NVHJX3 NO1100 XdOA M3N 3mv? 10va1N00/00ls
13 0015-0210t SdNON 9NIOVSI
29
H Zb
J
0
8C
9E
ZC
S Z1 61Z
AvW
921 6 91E2∠ OE 2l b 8Z11 81Sz 1 8 sl6z ZZ 91 Ei 022Z E ol LI 乙 1 8 SlZZ! 6Z St zl 61 92 z 6 91
Nnr 7nr 9nv d3s 100 AON 330 NVr
cz
B3日
pin'ePAeO ∠86L。
S8
CONTRAGT SIZF 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TiCk
VAEUE
.OI CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
EACH QRIO 02 CENTS
MAY1987 VALUE SIOO/CONTRACT
NEW YORK CDTTON EXCHANGE 62
TRADING HOURS 10130- 3100 ET
60
k
58
56
54
52
50
节
48
M 46
44
H 42
STOP LEVEL@ 42
40
On September 25th, our second reflec- 38
tion shows a projected reaction down to
42.80 but then it shows the trend resum-
ing. We decide to move our stop up the 36
42 level so as to stay just under the pro
jection.(Always place your stop beyond
tr
the projection or in other words, further
away from the current price than the 34
actual projection shows.)
H
32
86
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.OI CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRID
VALUE
102 CENTS
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE SI0O/CDNTRACT
TRADING HOURS 10130-3:00 ET
52
50
48
46
44
STOP LEVEL @ 42 42
H
40
38
36
34
32
87
CONTRACT SIZE 50.000 LBS
.OI CENTS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
EACH GRIO
35.00/CONTRACT
.02 CENTS
MAY1987 VALUE ¥100/CONTRACT
62
NEW YORK COITON EXCHANGE
TRADING HOVRS 10:30・3+00 E
Jt
60
The second reflection chart indicates 58
that some more pull backs are in store for
us so we decide not to add at this time
lt also indicates that the next pull back
could be in the 45 area so we raise our 56
stop to 44.00
54
52
50
48
46
44
STOP LEVEL @ 44
42
40
38
36
34
32
27 3 10 17: 241 8 15 22 29 5
12 19.26 2 9 1623
1825 1
5 12 19 26 2 916 23 30 7 142128 4 11AUG 815 22:296 13:204
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
MAY JUN JUL SEP
1987 Cavida. Ltd
88
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
MIN TICK .OI CENTS
COTTON VALUE
EACHGRID
35:00/CONTRACT
.02 CENTS
MAY1987 VALUE ¥100/CONTRACT
62
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE
TRADINC HOURS 10130・3+00 EI
52
48
46
-STOP LEVEL @ 44
42
40
H
38
36
32
12119226 2 9 1623
29 16 23 30 7 14.21 28 4 1 18: 25 l 8 15 22:296 13 20; 273 10 17:2418 15 22 29 5 FEB
5 1219
26
ocT NOV DEC √AN
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
●1987 Cavida.Ltd.
89
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
,OI CENTS
55.00/CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRIO .02 CENTS
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE VALUE SIOO/CONTRACT
62
IRAD1NG HOURS 10t30-3100 ET
60
The second reflection indicates that the
latest pull back may be down to the 46 58
level so we move our stop to 45.00.
56
54
52
50
48
46
STOP LEVEL ① 45
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
90
CONTRACT SIZE 50.0001AS
COITON MIN TICK
VALUE
.O1 CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
.02 CENTS
EACH GRID
MAY1987 VALUE S100/CONTRACT
NEW YORK CDTIDN EXCHANCE 62
TRADING HOURS 10130- 3100 ET
60
52
50
48
46
STOP LEVEL @45
44
42
40
H
38
36
34
32
91
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
The second reflection chart indicates COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.OI CENTS
55.00/CONTRACT
that this current reaction may carry down
to just below our stop level at 45.Should MAY 1987 EACH GRID
VALUE
.02 CENTS
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE S10O/CONTRACT
we move our stop down to say 44 just in 1RADING HOURS 10130- 3100 ET 62
case?
60
It's tempting . but the answer is NO! 58
Never, ever, succumb to the temptation
to lower a stop. Suppose you lowered it
to 44 and then the next projection made 56
you lower it to 42. Suppose it now goes
back up and moves to new highs. You 54
have done the wrong thing and won.
Would you do it again? Probably. And,
eventually you will commit the un-
forgiveable sin to let a small 52
reasonable loss turn into a large loss.
Think of the market as an adversary
which is able to set you up and then take
50
you out!
Note the similarity between this second 48
reflection projection and the actual
market chart on page 99. 46
STOP LEVEL @ 45
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
5 12
MAY
19;262 9 16: 23307 1421 28 4 l118;251 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 1724 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 262 9 1623
JUN JUL AUG SEP 0CT NOV DEC JAN FEB
・1987 Cavida, Ltd.
92
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
01 CENTS
35.007CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRID :02 CENTS
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE VALUE S10O/CONTRACT
TRADING HOURS 10130・ 3100 ET 62
60
By November 20th, the trend is still up
but the market has taken on more of a
sideways movement. Some traders would 58
say that is looks toppy". Should we just
gef out and look for something with more 56
potential? That's a possibility; however.
if we are going to get out we must do it
by moving our stop in the direction of the
trend unti we are stopped out. 54
52
m 50
48
理 46
STOP LEVEL 45
44
山
42
H 40
38
36
f
34
班
32
93
CONTRACT SIZE 50.000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
lO/ CENTS
35.007CONTRACT
.02 CENTS
MAY 1987 EACH GRID
VALUE SIOO/CONTRACT
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE
IRADING HOURS 10130- 3100 ET 62
J 60
The second reflection chart indicates
that this sideways movement may con- 58
tinue for some time longer It also in-
dicates that the potential is for a good up
move to come and it indicates that our 56
stop at 45 may just see us through it un-
ti the upmove begins. Lets stay with the
move with our stop at the 45 level. 54
52
50
48
46
STOP LEVEL 45
44
42
H 40
38
36
34
32
94
CONTRACT SIZE 50.000 LBS
MIN TICK .OI CENTS
COTTON VALUE
EACH GRIO
35.00/CONTRACT
.02 CENTS
MAY1987 VALUE ¥100/CONTRACT
62
NEW YORK COIION EXCHANGE
TRADING HQURS10:30・3100 E1
60
58
On November 29th the market gaps up
taking out the previous high points Ths 56
acton satisfies clue #1 as a breakout ano
clue #3 as a gao.Should we add to ou
position at this point? 54
52
50
48
46
STOP LEVEL @ 45
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
91623
1320 27 3 10|17 24 1 8 1522295 1219262 FEB
14 21 28 4 11 1825181522296 OC7 NOV DEC JAN
5 1219262 9161 307 JUL
23 SEP
MAY JUN AUG ●1987 Cavida. Ltd.
95
CONTRACT SIZF 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.OI CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRID .02 CENTS
VALUE S1OO/CONTRACT
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE
TRADINC HOURS 10130- 3100 ET 62
60
The second reflection chart indicates 58
some immediate continued up movement
and then some sideways movement 56
before the uptrend continues. However,
the pull backs are still above where we
plan to enter. Lets do it. We will add three 54
contracts to our original five. On L3 @:52..60
December 1st May Cotton opened at 52
52.60 where we added three contracts.
We also move our stop level up to the 50
previous low point at 47.00
48
STOP LEVEL @ 47
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
上
32
96
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.OI CENTS
35.007CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRID
VALUE
.02 CENTS
NEW YDRK COTTON EXCHANGE 5100/CONTRACT
62
IRADING HOURS 10130- 3100 ET
60
54
52
50
48
STOP LEVEL @ 47
46
44
42
H 40
量…
38
36
34
32
5 1219262 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 4 !1 18 2518 15 22
MAY AUG
29 6 13 2027 3 10 17 24 | 8 15 22 29 5 1219262 9 16:23
JUN JUL SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB
・1987 Cavida, Ltd.
97
CONTRACT SIZF 50,000 LaS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.OI CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
MAY1987 EACH GRID 02 CENTS
¥100/CONTRACT
VALUE
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE
TRADING HOURS 10130・ 3100 ET
62
60
The second reflection chart indicates 58
a pull back to the 55 area so we move our
stop on all eight contracts up to 54.00 56
STOP LEVEL @ 54| 54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
98
CONTRACT SIZE 50,000 LBS
COTTON MIN TICK
VALUE
.Oi CENTS
35.00/CONTRACT
MAY 1987 EACH GRID .02 CENTS
NEW YORK COTTON EXCHANGE VALUE S1OO/CONTRACT 62
TRADING HOURS 10130- 3100 EI
60
50
48
46
44
42
H
40
BUY 5 @38.20 38
36
34
32
99
27
RECAP OF FIRST EXAMPLE
[7] We did not get in at the bottom nor did we get out at the
top. We got the middle 50of the move. We did the right
thing in trading.
Note that there was never a time when our positions were
in a loss. Now that is not too significant and it will not always happen
that way. The point is that most traders would not have had the guts
to enter the market when we did. It would seem to most traders to
be too risky ...
100
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
(I mean, after that much upmove the market could react
severely. The prudent thing to do would be to wait for a
reaction to get aboard. And, if there is no reaction soon,
then we should look for a top because the down move
could be fast and profitable!)
And yet we know from Adam Theory that the greater the
velocity and the closer we are to the NOW moment, the greater the
symmetry. We know that jumping on a speeding train going West is
the surest and safest way to end up West of where we started!
101
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
28
…的
THE TEN TRADING RULES
102
[8] Stay Flexible. Remember that you can be wrong, Adam can
be wrong, anything in the world can be wrong from time to
time. Remember that Adam is dealing in high probabilities, not
absolute certainties.
103
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
29
THE TEN RULES EXPANDED
104
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
last time you were truly objective was before you entered the
trade when you decided on your stop. If you move a stop, then
the element of hope has completely overcome your cool
calculated objectivity and you are no longer able to function as
a rational trader. Fear can serve a useful purpose. Greed can
be a hindrance. But hope, when it becomes predominate, leads
to disaster.
[5] NEVER, EVER allow yourself to lose more than 10of your
trading capital on a single trade or any single day.
105
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
You can follow the first four rules and still get hurt. One
way is to take on so many positions that even with close stops,
if most or all of the positions went against you, you could lose
more than 10of your trading capital in one day. This can
happen by putting on too many positions. There will be times
that everything you bought went down and everything you sold
went up. Remember that trading should be fun. To keep it that
way, never risk enough at any one time that it becomes too
serious.
106
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
against it until there is strong evidence that a turn has
already occurred (not that it will or should, but that it has.)
107
108
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
a winner just by using Adam or anything else. Adam Theory
simply gives you a reason for entering the market. The reason
is that there is a high probability that the market will move in
a particular direction for a period of time.
Adam Theory, nor anything else(there is no
“tomorrows WALL STREET JOURNAL”) is accurate enough to
consistently make a profit in the markets unless the basis of
all your trading is the TEN RULES. When you know this you
will make real profits in the markets... the kind you can spend
at the end of the year.
You will know it because you do it.
109
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Eastman Kodak Company (EK)
LTD s||15.PFD NO COM 225.8
75
70
65
出
BUY @ 59
好 60
,hl 地
m
ST OP LEVE @ 55 55
邮
50
6 20 4 18 1 15 29 12 26 l0 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 13 27
JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
●1987 Cavida, Ltd.
On October 24th the market broke out above the highs for the last three months con-
vincingly with two long range days. This move took out five previous high points on the
new uptrend and all of the highs for the last three months previous to the most recent
bottom. Clues #1 and #3 were confirmed. Our second reflection chart(in green) indicates
that the uptrend will most likely continue and that a pull back will most likely occur above
the current market price. The next day we buy the stock at 59 and place our stop just
below the previous reaction (pull back) at 55.
110
Eastman Kodak Company (EK)
LTo sll15.PFD No CoM 225.8
Photoqraph apparatus, chemicals
799 INSTITUTIONS HOLD 109.7 MIL SHS 80
75
出
70
州
址
65
中
耐 60
STOP LEVEL @ 59
H
h
H H HP
5!5
H
的
50
6
JUNE
20 4 18
JULY
l 15 29 12 26 10 24
AUG SEPT OCT
7
NOV
21 5 19
OEC
2 16
JAN ra 27 13 27
MAR
●1987 Cavida, Ltd.
On November 10th the first reaction is over because a low point at about 62 was made.
Based on this low, the second reflection chart indicated a possible reaction would most
likely not go below the 60 level. Therefore we moved our stop just below this projection
to the 59 level. The second reflection chart then indicates a continued uptrend.
111
Eastman Kodak Company (EK)
LTD sll15.PFD NO COM 225.8
Photoargph apparatus, chemicals
799 INSTITUTIONS HOLO 109.7 ML SHS 80
75
柳
开
70
早
中
H 65
Hr
H STOP LEVVEL@61
60
声
地
儿 工
主
5!5
的
h
50
6
JUNE
20 4 18
JULY
1 15 29 12 26 10 24
AUG SEPT OCT
7
NOV
21 5 19
DEC
2 16
JAN
30
ra 27 13 27
MAR
・1987 Cavida, Ltd.
On November 18th the next reaction was over, making a market low point at just above
64.The second reflection chart at this point indicates that the market would most likely
not go below 61.50, so we move our stop up to about the 61 level.
112
Eastman LToKodak Company
sl115. PFD NO COM 225.8
(EK)
Photoqraph apparatus, chemicals
799 INSTITUTIONS HOLD 109.7 MIL SHS 80
75
8
山
L
时 70
65
4 STOP LEVEL @ 64
60
山
h
山
H
比 #
55
州
50
6 20 4 18 l 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 VAN
16 30 FEB
13 27 13 27
JUNE JULY AUG SEPT 0CT NOV DEC MAR
・1987 Cavida, Ltd.
On November 30th the next reaction is over and the second reflection chart indicates
that the market will most likely remain above 64.50 so we move our stop again up to just
under the 64 level.
113
Eastman Kodak Company (EK)
LTD sll15.PFO NO COM 225.8
Photoqraph apparatus, chemicals
799 INSTITUTIONS HOLD 109.7 MIL SHS 80
雄 75
山
70
L 井
上
H 60
H 山
地
F
n
5! 5
i
50
6 20 4 18 l 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 13 27
JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
・1987 Cavida, Ltd.
On December 6th a more severe reaction takes place. The second reflection chart
indicates that the market most likely will remain above the 63 level, but could penetrate
to our stop at 64. Do we move our stop down to 63? You already know the answer to that!
114
Eastman Kodak Company (EK)
LTo sll15.PFD No COM 225.8
Photoqraph apparatus, chemicals
799 INSTITUTIONS HOLD 109.7 MIL SHS 80
H 75
-STOFP LEVEL 71
H
70
H
H 65
60
出
h H
H
H
55
叫
50
6 20 4 18 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5DEC 19 2 JAN
16 30 13 27 13 27
JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV FEB MAR
115
Eastman Kodak Company (EK)
LTo slǐl5. PFD NO COM 225.8
Photoqraph apparatus, chemicals 性 80
799 INSTITUTIONS HOLD 1O9.7 MIL SHS
件
片
件
75
讲
70
HL
山
H
65
H
H 60
内
n此 立
H H
5!5
H
50
6 20 4 18 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 13 27
JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
1987 Cavida, Ltd.
It is not necessary to make the second rellection projection every day unless you just
want to. As long as the market is moving in the direction you are trading no new stop
will be indicated. However, whenever there is reaction (pull back) opposite to the direc-
tion you are trading, then a projection should be made. Once a low point is made and
the market starts back up, the new stop level will take the place of the old stop level. There
will be times however, when you will decide that you do not want to sit still for the pro-
jected reaction.When that happens, then place your stop at the point you are comfortable
with.Remember, you can always get back in the market based on what the second rellec.
tion chart is telling you.
116
CONTRACT SIZE
COFFEE MINTICK
VALUE
37.500L8S
01 CENTS
53.75 /CONTRACT
DECEMBER 1986 EACA GR/O
VALUE
I CENTS
3375/CONTRACT
COFFEE,SUGAR,AND COCOA EXCHANGE,INC.
TRADING HOURS 9145- 2130 ET 290
280
270
260
250
240
230
INITIAL STOP 225.00
220
SOLD SHORT @ 210.55 210
200
190
# 180
170
160
150
117
CONTRACI SIZE 37.500 t8S
COFFEE MiN TiCK
VALUE
O1 CENTS
53.75./CONTAACT
DECEMBER1986 EACH GR10
VALUE
1CENTS
5375/CONTRACT
COFFEE, SUGAR,AND COCOA EXCHANGE,INC.
TRADINC MOURS 9:45- 2130 ET 290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
STOP LEVEL @215
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
118
COFFEE CONTRACT SIZE
MINTICK
VALUE
37.500LBS
O1 CENTS
53.75 /CONTRACT
DECEMBER 1986 EACH GRiD
VALuE
CENTS
3375/CONTRACT
CDFFEE,SUGAR,AND COCOA EXCHANGE,INC.
TRADINO HOURS 9145-2130 EI 290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
STOP LEVEL 203.00
200
190
180
170
160
150
119
CONTRACT SIZE 37.500LBS
COFFEE MINTICK
VALUE
O1 CENTS
53,75 /CONTRACT
DFCFMBFR1986 EACH GR1D
VALUE
1 CENTS
8375/CONTRACT
COFFEE,SUGAR,AND COCOA EXCHANGE,INC.
TRADING HOURS 9145- 2130 ET 290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
STOP LEVEL 185
180
170
160
排
150
120
37.500LBS
COFFEE CONTRACT SIZE
MINTICK
VALUE
.O1 CENTS
53.75 /CONTRACT
DECEMBER 1986 EACH GRID
VALUE
1 CENTS
3375/CONTRACT
COFFEE. SUGAR,AND COCOA EXCHANGE,INC.
TRADING HOURS 9145- 2130 ET 290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
ENTERED SHORT @ 210.55 210
200
190
OUT @ 188.00 ON OPEN
180
PE
H 170
C
160
150
The market bottomed on July 9th and we were stopped out on the open at 188.00
on July 16th.We did not get in at the top. far from it. Nor did we get out at the bottom,
but we made 22.55 points per contract which translates into S8456.25 per contract. Did
that trade look risky to the average trader? Probably so! Adam Theory says that was one
of the safest trades we could make.
121
VISUALIZATION
One day in the early 1980's Jim Sloman was walking down
a street in Durham, N.C. He had just finished writing a book which,
characteristically, he titled "Nothing". He had spent his time, efforts
and funds for the last year or so in writing the book and getting it
published. He had only a few dollars in his pocket and not much more
in his bank account. But he was not concerned ... in fact he was
quite happy. Why?
Jim had discovered something called visualization. Jim
visualized that he would soon be a commodity trader in Chicago and
that he would have a beautiful apartment on the shore of Lake
Michigan.
Not long after that Jim found himself in Chicago looking
around the Board of Trade. He met a person who was putting together
a group of about a dozen traders. Some were very good traders. Some
were not. The idea was that this group would meet every day in one
room around a large table where there were a number of quote
machines and trade the futures markets. The reason for this was
twofold. First, everybody would learn something about trading from
everybody else. And second, the combined trading volume would allow
them to each get a very favorable commission rate.
Through a series of seemingly unrelated events, Jim had
already obtained enough trading capital to get started. He was asked
to join the group.
Soon, through other seemingly unrelated events he was living
in a beautiful apartment overlooking Lake Michigan. It was the only
apartment complex with its own private beach.
On the day I first met Jim we went to his apartment and I
remember asking him, "How in the world did you ever get this fantastic
apartment?’
122
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
seemingly unrelated events, here I am.”
Little did I know at that time that several years down the road
I would spend some time every day for a full year applying something
called visualization to futures trading.
Now, I am not going to get on the stump and proclaim that
applying something called visualization to trading the markets is a
sure fire way to get rich or anything like that. I will say one thing. After
using the visualization technique (that I will show you) for a year, I
can say that I have not done any of the wrong things in trading...
things that l used to do occasionally even when I knew better. In fact,
if l tried to do the wrong thing I would feel very uncomfortable. For
example, when I put on a trade I never wait longer than it takes to
get my fill (and l deal directly with the clearing house) to enter my
stop. One time l delayed entering my stop just to see how it would
feel. Even sitting there watching that market on my quote machine,
I became very uncomfortable.I could not relax unti I had placed the
stop.I had been preconditioned to do the right thing when trading.
Books could be written on the subject of visualization and
the techniques involved.I will try to explain in as few words as possible
a little of what I learned from Jim about applying visualization to
trading.
Visualizing means to picture something in your mind. If this
picture is repeated often enough it sinks into your subconscious mind
and has an influence on not only what you think, but what you do and
what happens to you. For example, a few years ago I began to gain
weight so I went on a diet and began to watch what and how much
l ate. Then l learned about visualization and each morning as I shaved
in front of the mirror I would affirm to myself how slim and trim I am.
Very soon this image of my slim trim body sunk into my subconscious
mind and l found that I no longer had to worry about what or how much
l ate. My appetite was not affected, but l just did not care to eat too
much. In fact, I believe that my subconscious mind, which is the
computer that regulates heartbeat, breathing, and all body functions
also regulates my metabolism if necessary to keep my body slim.
123
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
Anyway, the idea is to create a mental picture of what you
want. The picture must be affirmative because your subconscious
mind does not understand negatives. Jim has this to say about how
one should create the pictures.
124
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
the day's activities until I have completed this process.
・Above all, remember to be grateful, have fun, be playful, and enjoy
the process of my life.
125
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
[7] Being happy to take lots of small losses while waiting for
profitable moves.
Picture: Being stopped out and feeling good about it because
I did the right thing.
[8] Always moving the stop only in the direction of the trade
and only getting out upon the trigger of a stop. (Letting your
profits ride.)
Picture: Picking up the phone and giving a "cancel/replace"
order, knowing that I will never get out except by a stop being hit.
[9] To undertrade both in size and frequency.
Picture: Holding a position and feeling extremely relaxed and
comfortable about it.
[10] Being relaxed and serene about winning and losing.
Picture: At the end of a trading week feeling very relaxed and
comfortable about my success... about how I handled myself
...about doing the right thing in that week's trading.
[11] MY FINANCIAL GOALS IN TRADING.
Picture:
Starting with A. ¥ 100,000 trading equity and then going to:
B. 150,000
C. 225,000
D. 350,000
E. 500,000 Picture seeing this progression
F.700,000 on the equity runs. Concentrate
G.1,000,000 on the next number. Eliminate a
H.1,500,000 number that has been hit.
1. 2,250,000
J.3,500,000
K.5,000,000
126
127
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
you do not do as well... not nearly as well as when you were playing
on the side. When you really get serious about it, your objectivity
diminishes inversely to the square of your fear and greed.
I heard the following story from several sources, so l suspect
there is some truth to it.On an average day perhaps 75of the trading
taking place on the floor is between the locals. On this day the word
was out that one of the biggest and most successful traders was
heavily long this particular market. The market was drifting down and
most of the locals were heavily short. Everyone was sort of anticipating
that the big trader would tire of being on the seemingly wrong side
of the market and when he sold his position it would create a significant
down move that would give them a nice profit on their shorts.
Therefore, the locals continued to hammer the market down at every
opportunity.
The big trader finally did tire of this game and put in an order
under the market to BUY a thousand contracts! The market continued
to drift down. Suddenly it hit the resting order for one thousand
contracts. Bedlam broke out on the floor. The locals scrambled trying
to get out... the market took off like a shot triggering more and more
stops from the other traders. Needless to say, by the time the shorts
got out there were some heavy losses.
There are three things that a trader must constantly deal with.
They are objectivity, fear, and greed. When trading becomes too
serious ... when the outcome takes on great importance, then fear
and greed tend to influence the trader's decisions. The trader loses
some objectivity as the situation becomes more serious. At some point
128
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
fear and greed can take over entirely and when that happens the
wrong decision will usually be made.
If having a playful attitude about trading will make one a better
trader, then how does one do it? That's a good question. There may
not be a pat answer that applies to every trader but I will tell you what
works best for me.
First, look at the markets in terms of numbers ... of lines
on charts. Think of the markets as a challenge... a game that is
fun to play. Think of it as a game of percentages ... a game of
discipline. A game to see if you can always do the right thing.
It has been said that a commodity trader is never happy. If
he loses he is not happy because he lost. If he wins he is not happy
because he should have had a bigger position. Well, I will tell you
how you can be happy trading the markets. At the end of the week,
if you can look back at your trading and say "this week I did the right
thing in my trading" then you truly have reason to be happy. Whether
you won or lost that particular week is not the important thing. It is
better to have done the right thing and lost than to have done the
wrong thing and won. Doing the wrong thing puts you on the road
to ruin. Doing the right thing insures your success.
Second, don't think"money". Think in terms of points. Never
count your money in a trade while still in the trade.
Third, don't trade to make money... trade to win the game.
The point is, don't put the emphasis on money but on being a
successful trader. When you are successful the money will be there.
Fourth, keep fear and greed out of the picture by taking very
small positions at first. When you become successful then gradually
increase your position size... but never enough so that you begin
to think"money".
The object is to play the game, have fun and win ... that
translates into profits ... and thats what matters in markets.
129
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
I will end this book with the following thoughts from Jim
Sloman.
In summation, a man of wisdom will let go, will flow the way
the river is flowing, will trust in the ultimate wisdom and goodness
130
131
THE ADAM THEORY OF MARKETS
EPILOGUE
One thing I can say about this quest is... it has surely been
exciting!
.44
此
.40
.36
.32
410*6217A*+J41010118AH」」 A1
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
●1987 Cavida, Ltd.
THE ADAM THEORY
OF MARKETS THE ADAM THEORY
or OF MARKETS
WHAT MATTERS IS PROFIT or
WHAT MATTERS IS PROFIT
WHAT IS ADAM?
ADAM IS...about making profits
trading the markets... any freely traded
markets anywhere in the world. Adam
presents a special way to look at markets
and an even more special way to trade
markets.
But Adam is more than that. Adam
is the market's own, non-arbitrary,
projection of the most probable course
it will move in the future continuously
updated with every time frame. Using
Adam technology, the trader is able to
project and actually see that course. The
trader then asks the question, "Do I want
that trade?” If the answer is yes, then the
trader enters the market. Adam is ap-
Welles Wilder is known world-wide for plicable to any time frame… a daily chart,
his innovative and original concepts in a weekly chart, an hourly chart, etc. Adam
technical trading. FORBES MAGAZINE is a visual thing. No mathematics are ever
(Oct.'80) singled Mr. Wilder out as “The involved.
premier technical trader publishing his
work today.” BARRON'S(Jul.'84) states Adam Theory shows why many of
that "In 1978 the basis of mathematical the concepts that traders hold dear are
analysis was expanded when J. Welles doomed to failure. When you have read
Wilder, Jr. published NEW CONCEPTS Adam Theory, you will never see markets
IN TECHNICAL TRADING SYSTEMS.” in the same way again.
FINANCIAL WORLD(Jul 9,'85) acknowl-
edges that, "Over the years, Wilder has Adam is a bottom-line kind of thing.
developed more accurate commodity It's about what works, only. It may seem
trading systems and concepts than any that it's not fancy enough or complicated
other expert.” enough, but that is a function of what it's
about. You see, it's not about what should
Mr. Wilder has authored many articles work or about what seems impressive. It's
on trading techniques and has made ap- about one thing only - what really, ac-
pearances on radio and television pro- tually works. And that happens to be ex-
grams. He has presented his methods and ceedingly simple, not nearly complicated
systems at technical trading seminars in enough to be impressive.
Asia, Australia, Canada, the U. S. and the
capitals of Europe. Around the world there But if we think about it, we're really
are probably more traders using Mr. only interested in one thing: What works?
Wilder's systems and methods than any What matters in markets is profit.
other discipline. Everything else is perhaps interesting, but
In the mid'80's Mr. Wilder founded the not important.
DELTA SOCIETY INTERNATIONAL which
furnishes unique market information to its ¥65.00
members world-wide. In 1986 Mr. Wilder Available from
announced his retirement to just trade for
himself. THE ADAM THEORY OF TREND RESEARCH
MARKETS is his second and(he says) his P.O. Box 128
last book… a final contribution to the field McLeansville, N.C.27301
of technical trading.
再
1
-
1
TREND RESEARCH
In4 Research Bullding
-Nici eans le Square
creansvme, N.C. 27301