Solar Resource

GpdTW
Solar Resource
Table of Contents

Bild durch Klicken auf Symbol h

• Solar Irradiation
• Beginning Software
• Losses
• P50 & P90
• Yield Estimate Exercise

Solar Resource 2
Solar Irradiation

Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI)

Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI)
Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation (DHI)

Solar Resource 3
Units

•Power - kW / m2

•Specific Energy - kWh / m2 * day

• (it’s a sum thru the day, month, or year)

•Plant Energy – kWh / time

• Day, Month, or Year

Courtesy: 3 Tier

Solar Resource 4
Ground Sensors

Thermal Pyranometers
• Solar irradiance warms up the metal plate in
proportion to its intensity
• Slow response (varying irradiance due to clouds
cannot be modelled)
• Diffuse irradiation can be measured
• Cell type independent
• Calibrated to ISO standards
• Directional error 5% up to 80° angle of incidence
• Requires continuous maintenance

Source: K&Z

Solar Resource 5
Ground Sensors

Silicon Sensors
• Delivered current proportional to the irradiance

• Fast response
• Some wavelengths cannot be measured 
leads to lower irradiation values
• The cell sensor needs to match the installed
cell technology of the modules
• More sensitive to pollution than
pyranometers
• Directional error >5% above 55° angle of
incidence, >2% above 50°
Source: K&Z

Solar Resource 6
Ideally we will have…

Long-term satellite data

Correlated with:

1 year onsite measurement campaign

Solar Resource 7
Losses
GTW - PD
Design Input Parameters
• Technical specifications of the installed
modules and inverters: as per datasheet
(PAN files and OND files)
• Mounting technology: fixed or tracking
system
• Configurations of module strings: number
of modules in series and number of modules
in parallel per inverter
• Arrangement of modules: layout of modules
in tables, landscape or portrait orientation of
modules and distances between rows
• Assumed mismatch (MPP) loss under STC:
value based on experience
• Assumed DC wiring loss under STC: defined
as per basic design
• Assumed AC wiring loss under STC: defined
as per basic design
• AC line specifications: defined as per
datasheet
• Assumed transformer loss under STC:
defined as per basic design
• Transformer specifications: defined as per
datasheet
Energy Yield Assessment 9
System Losses

Air pollution
• The solar resource can be reduced
significantly in some locations due to air
pollution from industry and agriculture

Shading under operating conditions

• Due to mountains or buildings on the far
horizon, mutual shading between rows of
modules and near shading due to trees,
buildings or overhead cabling

Energy Yield Assessment 10

System Losses

Soiling under operating conditions Spectral response losses under operating

• Losses due to soiling (dust and bird conditions
droppings) depend on the environmental • Technology dependent and it is given by the
conditions, rainfall frequency and on the ratio of the current generated by the solar
cleaning strategy cell, to the incident power on the solar cells
• This loss can be relatively large compared to
other loss factors but is usually less than 4%,
unless there is unusually high soiling
• The soiling loss may be expected to be lower
for modules at a high tilt angle as inclined
modules will benefit more from the natural
cleaning effect of rainwater

Energy Yield Assessment 11

System Losses

Reflection losses under operating

conditions
• The incidence angle loss accounts for
radiation reflected from the front glass
when the light striking is not perpendicular.
• For tilted PV modules, this loss may be
expected to be larger

Energy Yield Assessment 12

System Losses

Low irradiance under operating conditions

• The conversion efficiency of a PV module generally reduces at low light intensities
• This causes a loss in the output of a module compared with standard test conditions (STC, 1000W/m²)

Different PV module technologies:

Energy Yield Assessment 13

System Losses
Module temperature losses under operating
conditions
• The characteristics of a PV module are
determined at standard temperature conditions
of 25°C
• For every degree rises in Celsius temperature
above this standard, crystalline silicon modules
reduce in efficiency, generally by around 0.5%
• In high ambient temperatures under strong
irradiance, module temperatures can rise
appreciably
• Wind can provide some cooling effect which
can also be modelled
Module quality losses under operating
conditions
• Most PV modules do not match exactly the
manufacturer’s nominal specifications
• Modules are sold with a nominal peak power
and a guarantee of actual power within a given
tolerance range
• The module quality loss quantifies the impact on
the energy yield due to divergences in actual
module characteristics from the specifications
Energy Yield Assessment 14
System Losses
LID under operating conditions
• It refers to the degradation of crystalline silicon
modules in the first operating hours with
respect to the manufacturer flash test STC
value
• The LID loss is related to the quality of the
wafer manufacturing, and may be in the order of
1% to 3%
• The manufacturers of PV modules have been
inclined recently to integrate the LID loss into
the labeled power of the modules they sell
Degradation (considered as a constant
value on yearly basis)
• The performance of a PV module decreases
with time
• If no independent testing has been conducted
on the modules being used, then a generic
degradation rate depending on the module
technology may be assumed
• Alternatively, a maximum degradation rate that
conforms to the module performance warranty
may be considered
Energy Yield Assessment 15
System Losses
Module mismatch losses under
operating conditions
• Losses due to “mismatch” are related to the
fact that the modules in a string do not all
present exactly the same current/voltage
profiles
• There is a statistical variation between
them which gives rise to a power loss
Inverter conversion losses under
operating conditions
• Inverters convert from DC into AC with an
efficiency that varies with inverter load
• Multiple MPP tracking systems or
Master/Slave concepts (if any) need to be
considered.
• Clipping can also be considered here as an
additional loss.
Energy Yield Assessment 16
System Losses
DC wiring losses under operating
conditions
• Electrical resistance in the cable between
the modules and the input terminals of the
inverter gives rise to ohmic losses (I2R)
• This loss increases with temperature. If the
cable is correctly sized, this loss should be
less than 3% annually
MPP tracking during operating
conditions
• The inverters are constantly seeking the
maximum power point (MPP) of the array by
shifting inverter voltage to the MPP voltage
• Different inverters do this with varying
efficiency
Energy Yield Assessment 17
System Losses

AC losses during operating conditions Auxiliary power consumption

• This includes transformer performance and • Power may be required for electrical
ohmic losses in the cable leading to the equipment within the plant.
substation • This may include security systems, tracking
motors, monitoring equipment and lighting

Transformer losses during operating Curtailment of tracking

conditions
• The ohmic and iron losses of the • Yield loss due to high winds enforcing the stow
transformer(s) used to step-up the voltage of mode of tracking systems
the generated power by the PV plant before
supplying the grid

Energy Yield Assessment 18

System Losses

Plant availability loss

• Downtime is a period when the plant does not
generate due to failure
• The downtime periods will depend on the
quality of the plant components, design,
environmental conditions, diagnostic
response time and the repair response time

Grid availability loss

• The ability of a PV power plant to export
power is dependent on the availability of the
distribution or transmission network

Energy Yield Assessment 19

System Losses – Varies with Location
(Fix Tilted SPV in Germany)

Energy Yield Assessment 20

System Losses – Varies with Location
(Dual-axis Tracking SPV in South Italy)

Energy Yield Assessment 21

P50 and P90 – Very Important
GTW - PD
Bankability Considerations

To quantify the energy risk for a project,

financial stakeholders often rely on probability
of exceedance:
• P50 represents the best estimate of the solar • The values of the P50 and P90 are directly
project’s expected energy production. related to the amount of uncertainty in the
energy production estimate
• Theoretically, there is an equal likelihood that
actual generated production will be either higher • The higher the uncertainty, the lower the P90
or lower than the P50 compared to the P50.
• Likewise, the energy value that can be expected • Therefore, reducing uncertainty is a priority for
with 90% confidence is called the P90, i.e. project stakeholders to maximize the P90
actual energy generation is expected to match
or exceed the P90 estimate 90% of the time

Energy Yield Assessment 23

Bankability Considerations

Probability P50 I σ1
(P100 to P50) σ1 > σ2

P90 I σ1
P90 I σ2

800 880 1000 Y (MWh)

Energy Yield Assessment 24

Summary / Recommendations

• The yield assessment is issued by an • The meteorological sources used are

established consultant known and established in the market
• A site inspection has been carried out • The meteorological sources have been
evaluated and weighted according to
• Well known simulation programs are
their suitability for the specific site
used
• The extreme temperature peaks
considered in the simulation correspond
to realistic values for the considered site

Energy Yield Assessment 25

Summary / Recommendations

• At least 10 years of registered meteorological data have been considered for

the simulation
• Remarkable seasonal weather phenomena (monsoon, heavy snow fall, etc.)
have been considered in terms of irradiation and availability variation
• Near shadings (buildings, trees, piles, etc.) have been considered
• The ground profile of the site has been reproduced in the 3D shading scene of
the simulation program

Energy Yield Assessment 26

Summary / Recommendations

• The assumptions made regarding all system losses are traceable and
technically reasonable
• Each of the losses mentioned above is coupled to its tolerance value as well
as the final result
• P50 and P90 have been calculated
• The assumed tolerances are reasonable
• Final performance and yield are specified with their corresponding tolerance
values

Energy Yield Assessment 27

Meteorological Data Resources – Only for Reference
Do not present
Meteorological Data

Name Contact Data resolution Purchase Comment

• Large distances from site

Day averages of single Program
Meteonorm 7 http://meteonorm.com • Possibility for interpolated
months (ca. 480 € plus VAT)
values

Day averages of the single Program and license • No interpolated values

Climate 1 www.climat1.de
months (full license ca. 110 €) • Good references
Day averages of the single Free program in • Data from more than 20
RetScreen 4 www.retscreen.net
months Excel other sources

Solar Resource 29
Meteorological Data

Name Contact Data resolution Purchase Comment

• No information about used

Month averages for a year or
http:// satellite grid
PVGIS day average values for single Data
re.jrc.ec.europa.eu • Results are also given
months
graphically
• No information about used
Day averages single month, satellite grid
Satel-light www.satel-light.com as well as their sums (1996- Data • Problems with
2000) preservation data

www.meteocontrol.de
• Satellite grid of 1 km
Data
Meteocontrol Month or annual averages • No information about air
65 € to max 320 €
temperature

Solar Resource 30
Meteorological Data

Name Contact Data resolution Purchase Comment

• Narrow grid of ground

Hours or daily values of the global
measuring stations
Meteomedia www.meteomedia.de radiation horizontally and the air Data
provides for a high data
temperature (since 2008)
availability, besides (DWD)
www.geomodelsolar.e Day averages as well as sums from • Uses weather data of
Geomodel Yes
u 1983 2005 for GHI and temperature Solar GIS
http:// • Satellite grid of 1 km
Day averages as well as sums from
NASA eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/ Yes
1983 to 2005 for GHI and temp.
sse/

Solar Resource 31
Meteorological Data

Name Contact Data resolution Purchase Comment

Data • Min.15-minute
SOLAR GIS solargis.info Hourly values
250-1500 € resolution

Everyday values from 2004

100 € per parameter and • Length of data
Meteoblue www.meteoblue.com worldwide partially since
year depends on location
1985
Free for old data; • Europe, Africa,
Helio Clim www.soda-is.com 15-minute to monthly
Current data pay Atlantic
NREL http://www.nrel.gov/midc/ Minute to monthly Yes • North America

Solar Resource 32
Selection of Data Sets
Time interval covered by the sources

1980 1993 2000 2010 2015

SourceSource
1 1

SourceSource
2 2

SourceSource
3 3

SourceSource
4 4

SourceSource
5 5

Solar Resource 33
Simulation Programs – Only for Reference
Do not present
Simulation Programs

Program Est. Price Features

• Design, monitoring and visualization

• Modeling of grid-connected PV generators with MPP trackers and
inverters
• Database for PV modules, inverters, thermal collectors and
INSEL 8 1,700 €
meteorological parameters
• Software compatible with MATLAB and Simulink
• Covers solar irradiance simulation, PV and solar thermal applications
• Only suitable for very skilled users

Energy Yield Assessment 35

Simulation Programs

Program Est. Price Features

• Grid-connected systems with storage systems

• Multiple module surfaces can be modeled for one inverter, multiple
inverters, MPP trackers and orientations
• Adjustable automatic electrical connection possible
PV*SOL 7.0 895 € • Real time visualization of the MPP range
• Database for PV modules, inverters and meteorological parameters
• AC- and DC-cable losses for each inverter
• Max. 100,000 modules
• Cash flow

Energy Yield Assessment 36

Simulation Programs

Program Est. Price Features

• It is a software package designed for the study, sizing, simulation

and data analysis simulation of PV systems with different
PVsyst 1,100 € configurations and technologies
• Hourly simulation, printable report, loss diagram on yearly basis
• Database for PV modules, inverters and meteorological parameters

SOLinvest 280 € • Mainly financial modeling

Energy Yield Assessment 37

Simulation Programs

Program Est. Price Features

• PV, solar thermal and geothermal models variants

• Up to 30 PV-fields with multiple orientations, tracking PV surfaces
• Islanding systems
Polysun
899 € • Reactive power, degradation, mismatch, soiling
Designer
• Combined inverter systems
• Database for modules, inverters, cables, batteries, battery-inverter
systems and meteorological data

Energy Yield Assessment 38

Simulation Programs

Program Est. Price Features

• Battery systems
• Considered losses: climatic variance, mismatch, module
Archelios-PRO 680 €
degradation, cable and inverter losses
• Database for modules, inverters and meteorological data

Pvscout 2.0
474 € • Elementary simulation options
Premium

Energy Yield Assessment 39

Simulation Programs

Program Est. Price Features

• The tool is suitable for analysis of control schemes, electric power
simulation, solar design, building thermal performance
• In parallel to the escalating development in PV technology and the
progressive increment of installed capacity in the past decades,
many simulation software emerged for analyzing and simulating PV
US$ 3,900 systems
TRNSYS
• These simulation software differ in many ways: E.g. PV system types
modeled, application of simulation tool, targeted users (investors,
researchers, experts, advisors, etc.), knowledge required, flexibility
and complexity

Energy Yield Assessment 40

Simulation Programs

Program Est. Price Features

• Homer is used for distributed generation (DG) systems for both on-
and off-grid installations and accounts for variations in technology
US$1,500-4,500 costs and energy resource availability.
HOMER
• It also evaluates the economic and technical feasibility of a large
number of technology options besides reducing the challenges of
designing hybrid micro power systems
• Inclusive photovoltaic system (utility interface systems, battery
storage systems, and stand-alone systems) analysis and design
PV F-chart US $600
program and it accommodates monthly average performance
calculation for each hour of the day
• Designs solar electric grid-connected systems online and gives its
SolarDesignTool US $500 /year
output in the form of a system comparison table

Energy Yield Assessment 41

Simulation Programs

Program Est. Price Features

• Four basic functions : Shade, IV curve, Power and Financial

Analysis.
Solar Pro N/A
• Output in form of IV curve, power generation, and life cycle
analysis

• Designed to simulate photovoltaic energy system operation for one

PV-DesignPro N/A year on an hourly basis to provide in-depth information about the
likely system output

PV*SOL • Visualization of roof systems and to calculate shading on the basis

1,295 €
premium 2017 of 3D objects

Energy Yield Assessment 42