S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Candlesticks

The daily and weekly candlesticks have been providing false signals the last couple of weeks. The current weekly candle is 100% bearish.
It’s an “engulfing” pattern, meaning that anyone who “bought the dip” the last three weeks is underwater. The daily candlestick to end the
week is also ugly bearish. Additionally, a “broadening top” formation is evident, which may explain the unreliability of the recent
candlesticks and the heavy volume on both up and down days.

“Broadening Top”

Daily

The classic technical analysis text by Edwards and Magee characterizes a broadening
top as a market that lacks intelligent sponsorship. It is one in which the public is being
whipped around and driven this way and that by rumors. As such, volume during the
broadening top pattern tends to be irregular. During some rallies volume may expand,
but during others it tends to be tepid. The same pattern applies on pullbacks. Because it
is so unpredictable, the broadening top pattern is extremely difficult to trade. There is no
clear breakout to either the upside or downside edge of the pattern. Weekly

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Weekly with the 8,13 and 55 week EMA

Using the longer term Fibonacci EMAs, bulls have nothing to be concerned
about. Alas, this is one of the of the pitfalls of “moving average” technical
analysis: it does a good job keeping one “in a trend,” but there’s a tendency
to give money back at the turns. It would probably take a break of 1084 to
trigger a trend reversal here.

“Funny” how the market has been struggling

in front of the 61.8% retrace. Someone has
been placing plenty of sell orders in front of
this very well known retracement level. 55 Week EMA holds twice

8/13
bullish
cross

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 c “y”
S&P 500 June e-Minis ~ (300 min.) a e

d
b
b d
g
“x”
“w” e
c
-5-
c This overlapping price action in the middle of
the progression highly suggests the
a presence of a corrective “x” wave

-3-

a
-1- -4-
The “y” wave appears to have completed with a ‘neutral triangle’ pattern,
which is a triangle that tends to “bulge” in the middle and end with an e-wave
-2- that ends up not gaining or losing much ground with the a-wave termination
point. Basically, it’s a triangle that neither “contracts” nor “expands.”
b

(X)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Head
S&P 500 June e-Minis ~ (60 min.) c
-c-
“y”
Left Shoulder a e Right
-c- -a- 1208 Shoulder

-a-

-b- -b-
d
b
1176.75
d
b g
Maybe we get a more “complex”
“x” right shoulder to give better
e symmetry to this formation.

All of the action in the last few weeks looks like a “topping formation.” Given this
model, 1208 would have to be considered key resistance. There also appears to be a
“head and shoulders” top in play. 1176.75 looks like classic chart support for bulls, but
c the slanted “neckline” could also be considered some support. The whole picture
looks bearish right now and would become even more so on a break of the neckline
(green-dashed line). Bears should consider 1208 as a “stop” on the June futures.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 -X-
S&P 500 Daily ~ A “Triple” Finally Concluded? (Z)
(Y) “y”?
“y”
c “w”
“w” a “x”
g
e
b
c
a (X)
1034
f
d
“x”
(W)
b

869
(X)

This would have to be the model that finished the entire advance from the 667 lows. Because
of how treacherous it has been attempting to call “the top,” I won’t do so now. However, given
the time of the year (“Sell in May and Go Away”) and the fact that this market has rallied so
unrelentingly, it would seem to be ripe for at least a robust correction.

667
-W-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Weekly - Alternative
This would be alternative count. It’s taken from the conclusions that Glenn Neely
has reached. Essentially it calls for more time before the Primary - B - wave
< B >? finally concludes. He would probably be the first to admit, though, that the “a”
wave high might not be bettered during the (Y) wave. I still have some doubts
about this model: I don’t like how big the “e” wave is within (W) and I don’t like
741 as the conclusion of the pattern lower. However, Neely makes a lot more
< B >? money than me and he’s been doing it a lot longer, so who am I to argue?

-B-
(Y)
“a” “c”

(W)
“e”

“b”
“a” “c” (X)

“d”

In practical terms, this count and the one on the

741 previous page are actually not very different.
-A-

“b”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Euro (June Futures) Daily with Commitment of Traders
I don’t really have a good wave count for the Euro. However, the recent
Commitment of Traders shows an extremely high level of speculative shorts as all
the world is now convinced the Euro is “going to unravel.” The Euro may very well
dissolve as a currency someday, but perhaps we’re due for some sort of bounce in
order to wash out all the new speculative shorts. The descent of the Euro in recent
weeks is not too impressive as it appears to be “grinding” lower, not “impulsing.”

All of this looks “congestive”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Daily (Log Scale) ~ An On Going “Triple” (Z)
1219?

(Y)

(X)
(W)

Reprinted from 3/13/10

(X)

In support of the idea of an ongoing “Triple,” it’s possible to draw a perfect trend channel that connects
the (X) waves with the (W) and (Y) end points.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any

kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is Wave Symbology
NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s "I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not I  or A  = Supercycle
trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions <I>or <A> = Cycle
opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author (I) or (A) = Intermediate
believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to "1“ or "a" = Minor
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