The Culture of Polis

: , www.kpolisa.com;
, www.ies.rs
: , ,
. , ,
, ,
, ,
, ,
, .
:
. . :
. . :
:
: (),
(), ( ),
( ),
- (-),
(), ()
( )
:
: , ;
, , ,
, ,
, ,
.
:
: 400.
316.334.56:008
-
,
3
:
/
. . 1, . 1 (2004) . :
;
Stylos, 2004-.- 21 cm

ISSN 1820-4589
COBISS.SR-ID 199568391
 ISSN 1820-4589

, . XII (2015),
THE CULTURE OF POLIS

Ad Honores


:


:

,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Henri de Grossouvre, -
. . . . . . . 17
. , -
21. . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
,
. . . . . . . . . . . 55
, -
? . . . . . . 65
,
(
) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
, ,
. . . . . . 99
/ ,
- :
. . 121
, ,
. . . . 139
. ,
: . . 155
,
. . . . . . . . . . . 167
. ,
. . . . . . . . 189
,
. . . . . . . . 205
CONTENT:

Aleksandar Saa Gaji, Between euroatlantism and eurasianism -

contemporary Serbia`s position . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Henri de Grossouvre, Actualit de la Serbie entre Bruxelles et Moscou -
Non alignement et rle de la Serbie au coeur de la nouvelle Europe . . 17
Ivan M. Zari, Classical euro-atlantic geopolitical theories -
relevancy at the beginning of the 21st century . . . . . . . . . 23
Neboja Vukovi,
Serbia and The Balkans in neo-Eurasian geopolitical conception . . . 39
Duan Prorokovi, Central European kontinentalizam
four possible scenarios for the Balkans . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Ljubia Despotovi,
Geopolitics of destruction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Radoslav Gainovi, To prevent the drowning of Serbia in the Antlantic
(Economic integrations and military neutrality as
a national interest of Serbia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Zoran Petrovi Piroanac, Les classes populaires de l'Europe,
alarmer le monde et ce qu'il va faire la petite Serbie . . . . . . . 99
Goran Nikoli / Vladan Ivanovi, Regional cooperation in the Balkans under
the influence of Euroatlantism and Eurasianism: Paradoxical effect of 'Euro-
Atlantic' CEFTA project on strengthening the ties between Serbia and the RS 121
Dragan Petrovi, Serbian geopolitics at Balkans,
in the period of transition of world order toward multipolarism . . . . 139
Sran M. Perii,
The geopolitical orientation Serbia: the need to define. . . . . . . 155
Sanja Areina,
Chinese New silk road and the Balkans. . . . . . . . . . . 167
Zoran B. Jevtovi,
The asymmetric battle for influence in the Balkans . . . . . . . . 189
Veselin Konatar, Geopolitics between planned chaos and
a new order of power - intelligence aspect . . . . . . . . . . 205
 316.334.3:497.11(4-7+4-5)

: 20.05.2015
: 29.05.2015

:
-
-
. ,
20. 21. .
- , -
- -
() , -
.

,
.
: , , , ,

-


, , -
-
- ,
. , -
-
, -
, - -
() . ,

179014
. .
 , ...
, ,

, .
, - -
, -
, ,
,
, - - ( -
) - . ,
, -
, - -
.

, -

20. 21. . -
,

,
. , : -
, - -
, -
-
; ,
, - -

?

, ,
() -
,
() .1
(shatterbelt) -
, , -

- -. -

1
-
, , , , 2009; Spykman Nicholas, The
Geography of Peace, Harcourt, Brace&Co,, New York, 1944; Spykman Nicholas, America`s Strategy
in World Politics: The US and the Balance of Power, Harcourt, Brace&Co,, New York, 1942;
, , , , 2004; , , , -
, 1995.
2
 , . XII (2015), , . 1-16
-
: ,
-,
intermarium- , -
-
.2
-
-
: ,
, ; , ,
; , , -
, , . ,
,
-
, -
(, ).
19.
,
- , ,
( ) -
.

, , -
, -
- -
.3 1918. , -
(, )
buffer zone-, ,
-
, . ,
,
, - -
,
- -
. , , 1991. -
,
,

4, .

2
, - ,
, , , 2004, . 316.
3
: , 1914-
2014 , 1914-2014, , ,2014, . 107-132.
4
, -
, 2/2011, VII, vol. 11, , , 2011, . 65.
3
 , ...

. -
-
.5 -
,
, -
:
, , -
, .
, ,

, -
. , -

, ,
-
,
-
6 ,
-
.7 , -
, -
,
, , ,
, , -
.8
, ,

-
. ,
, ,
-
, .

5
, ,
, , 2001
6
-
,
(1), , .4/2009, . 16, . 26, , , . 159-180
7
,
, , . 1/2014, vol. 19,
, , 2013, . 199.
8
, : ,
(. ., .),
, , 2013, . 428.
4
 , . XII (2015), , . 1-16

,
-
-
9 :
, -, .
- -
o
- -
- . -
, , -
, -
-
. ,

, -
, .
,
, de facto, , -
( -
) -
.10 , -
, -
,
, () ,

.11 ,
,
: -
18. ;
(
)12.
, . -
: ,
,
. ,
() , -
, , -
,

9
(. ),
; , 1995.
10
, , , , 2001, . 102-108.
11
, ,
1-2/2009, V, vol 5, , , 2009, . 68.
12
, , , , 1928.
5
 , ...
o . , -
, ( -
)13
- , ,
( )
. -
, -
( - );
-
.
(.
) , -
- -
, -
- , -
.14
, , -

, ,
, , -
, -
-
/ -
, -
. , -
15 (
)
- -
(). (
-
),
- , (-
, -
, , , -
16) - -
, , -
,

13
, , , , 2001, .
102-108.
14
, -
, 2/2012, VII vol. 14, . 64-68.
15
. . :
, , , 2004, ,
. , , 2013.
16
, . , , 1998, . 169-175.
6
 , . XII (2015), , . 1-16
- -
, -

. via negativa -
-
- -
-
. , , , -
- -
,
,
,
, (.
)
-
, , .

()
-
, -
,
. , :
,
,
, -
( . -
). - 20. - -

par excellence.17 (-
) -
, , -
.


. ,
19.
,
, , ,
.18 -
( ,

17
,
, .
18
, , , , 1994, . 59.
7
 , ...
- )

. 19-

, , -
, -
, , .
- :
,
, ,
(
, )
, -
, (
)
, .
-
.
-
, -
, -
, -
(.
) -

.
,

( -
); , , , ,
,
, . -

, , , -
( -
)
,
,
. -
-
, , , -

19
, , vol 9, .3/2010, ,
, 2010, . 11-50.
8
 , . XII (2015), , . 1-16


. : -
, , , , -,
, -
, , -
,
, . -

, -
- ,
, , -
, ,
.
-
-
,

, -
- .
,
( , -
), , ,
5. 2000.
.

,
.
,

/ .

,
, , -
. ,
,
,
. , ,
, -
-
.20 ,

20
: ,
21. , , . 17/2012 god. IX, , 2012,
. 1-26.
9
 , ...

(, ) -
. ,
( )
, .

- , ,
. ,
, . -
,
,
( ) , -
. ,
. -
,
: ,
, (
). ,
,
,
, ( -
) ,
, -
.

-
-
, , , -
, . -

- -
...

21
.22 -

21
, ,
Advance, http://www.standard.rs/alen-horvat-geopolitika-evroazijske-unije-ili-od-crne-
rupe-do-veze-medju-svetovima.html, 11.09.2013.
22
.
, http://www.nspm.rs/kuda-ide-srbija/evroazijska-unija-kao-otpor-kulturnoj-i-politickoj-hegemo-
niji-zapada.html, 12.09.2013, -
.
10
 , . XII (2015), , . 1-16
-
, , (-
) -
23.
( ,
, ,
), 24

.
2015. -
, -
, -
2016.
.25 ,
,
: , ,
,
.26
-
, -

/.
,
:27 ,
-
,
,
:
, -

, ;
. -
: ()

23
,
(. )
, , 2008, . 40-41.
24
, , , , 2009
25
: 2016.
, http://www.nspm.rs/hronika/igor-panarin-zelim-da-vec-2016-godine-beograd-pos-
tane-cetvrti-glavni-grad-evroazijske-unije.html, 13.01.2015.
26
: Barbashin Anton, Thoburn Hanna, The Kremlin Colapsing Euroasian Sandcastle,
The National Interest, 12.09.2013, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-kremlins-collapsing-
eurasian-sandcastle-9042. , ,
.
27
: Popescu Nicu, Euroasian Union: the real, Imaginery and likely, Charriot
Paper, EU Institute for Security Studies, Paris, September 2014.
11
 , ...
,
( -, ,
, -
,
, )
-
28, - - -
,
, -
-
, . -
.
-
2014. ,
,
, -
, , , -
. -
, . , -
; , /
;
/ ( ) -
, : / -
-
- .29
. ,
, ,
. -

. -
,

,
.
-
,
, ,
,

28
: , ,
Biblid 0025-8555, 64(2012) Vol. LXIV, br. 1, , 2012, str. 5366,
http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0025-8555/2012/0025-85551201053D.pdf
15.04.2015.
29
,
, 1-2/2009, V, vol 5, , ,
2009, . 63-64.
12
 , . XII (2015), , . 1-16
.

, -
, -
, , .

-
- -

.
-
, () -
() ,

( -, ,
) ,
(
,
-). , -
:
( -
-) -
.
, ,
,
.30 ,
,
, -
, -
,
. , , -
, , , ,
.31
, ,
:
(-
) -
, ,
-
-

30
, , (.
., .), , , 2013, . 139-157.
31
, : ,
(. ., .),
, , 2013, . 432.
13
 , ...
,
. ,
,
, .
,
: -
, -
status quo-a
,

. -

. , , , -
,
, . , ,
, ,
, -
, , .

:
1. Alekseev Nikolai , Russkii narod i gosudarstvo. Agraf, Moskva, 1998
2. Barbashin Anton, Thoburn Hanna, The Kremlin Colapsing Euroasian Sandcastle, The
National Interest, 12.09.2013, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-kremlins-
collapsing-eurasian-sandcastle-9042
3. Gaji Aleksandar, Geopolitka krize EU, Zbornik Kriza EU (prir. Gaji A., Igrutinovi
M.), Institut za evropske studije, Beograd, 2013
4. Gaji Aleksandar, SAD i raspad Jugoslavije pogled iz dvadesetogodinje perspekti-
ve,Nacionalni interes 2/2011, god VII, vol. 11, IPS, Beograd,2011
5. Gaji Aleksandar, Srbija i geostrateki interesi velikih sila 1914-2014 , Zbornik Srbi-
ja i politika velikih sila 1914-2014, IPS, Beograd,2014,
6. Gaji Aleksandar, U geopolitikom procepu: Srbija izmeu EU i Evroazijske Unije,
Zbornike Srbija i evroazijski geopolitiki prostor (ur. Stepi M., uri .), Institut za
politike studije, Beograd, 2013
7. Gaji Aleksandar,Mogunost geopolitike preorijentacije Srbije u savremenim meu-
narodnim prilikama, Nacionalni interes, br. 1/2014, vol. 19, Institut za politike studi-
je, Beograd, 2013
8. Gaji Aleksandar, Perspektive srpsko-ruskih odnosa u kontekstu svetske krize, Naci-
onalni interes br 2/2012, god VII vol. 14
9. Gaji Aleksandar, Pseudomorfoza elita, Nacionalni interes vol 9, .3/2010, IPS, Beo-
grad, 2010
10. Dugin Aleksandar, Osnovi Geopolitike, Ekopres, Zrenjanin, 2004
11. ukanovi Dragan, Gaji Dejan, Evroazijske bezbednosne integracije i bezbednost
Blakana i Srbije Biblid 0025-8555, 64(2012) Vol. LXIV, br. 1, Beograd, 2012

14
 , . XII (2015), , . 1-16
12. urkovi Mia, Savremena ruska spoljna politika i Srbija na poetku 21. veka, Kultu-
ra Polisa, br. 17/2012 god. IX, Novi Sad, 2012
13. Leontjev Konstantin, Vizantizam i slovenstvo, Logos ortodos, Beograd, 1994
14. Makinder Halford, Demokratski ideali i stvarnost, Metafizika, Beograd, 2009
15. Panarin Igor: elim da Beograd ve 2016. godine postane etvrti glavni grad Evroazij-
ske unije, http://www.nspm.rs/hronika/igor-panarin-zelim-da-vec-2016-godine-beograd-
postane-cetvrti-glavni-grad-evroazijske-unije.html,
16. Petrovi Piroanac Zoran, Amerika strategija uklinjavanja na jugoistoku Evrope posle
drugog svetskog rata (1), Srpska politika misao, br.4/2009, god. 16, vol. 26, IPS, Be-
ograd, 2009
17. Popescu Nicu, Euroasian Union: the real, Imaginery and likely, Charriot Paper, EU
Institute for Security Studies, Paris, September 2014
18. Popovi Vasilij. Istono pitanje, Geca Kon, Beograd, 1928
19. Spykman Nicholas, The Geography of Peace, Harcourt, Brace&Co., New York, 1944
20. Stepi Milomir, Srbija i evroazijskoj i neoevroazijskoj koncepciji uporedna geopoli-
tika analiza Zbornik Rusija i Balkan (ur. Zoran Miloevi) Institut za politike stu-
dije, Beograd, 2008, str. 40-41.
21. Stepi Milomir, Mogunost simbioze srpskih i ruskih geopolitikih interesa na Balka-
nu, Nacionalni interes br 1-2/2009, god V, vol 5, Institut za politike studije, Beograd,
2009
22. Stepi Milomir, Geopolitika neoevroazijstva pozicija srpskih zemalja. Institut za poli-
tike studije, Beograd, 2013
23. Stepi Milomir, U vrtlogu balkanizacije, Slubeni list SRJ, Beograd, 2001
24. Stepi Milomir, Savremeni ekonomsko-geografski i geopolitikii poloaj Srbije,
Srpsko pitanje geopolitiko pitanje, Jantar grupa, Beograd, 2004
25. Suboti Milan. Put Rusije: evroazijsko stanovite, Plato, Beograd, 2004
26. Tomi Stanislav. Evroazijska unija kao alternativa kulturnoj i politikoj moi zapada,
http://www.nspm.rs/kuda-ide-srbija/evroazijska-unija-kao-otpor-kulturnoj-i-politickoj-
hegemoniji-zapada.html,
27. Horvat Alen, Geopolitika Evroazijske unije ili od crne rupe do veze meu svetovima,
Advance, http://www.standard.rs/alen-horvat-geopolitika-evroazijske-unije-ili-od-crne-
rupe-do-veze-medju-svetovima.html

15
 , ...

BETWEEN EUROATLANTISM AND EURASIANISM -

CONTEMPORARY SERBIA`S POSITION
Summary: This paper studies numerous levels of relations of contemporary Serbia
toward two different, in many ways fundamentally opposed geopolitical concepts Euroat-
lantism and Eurasianism with their institutional frameworks and integrational arrangements.
Starting from classical geopolitical position of Serbia and Balkan, this work analyses
contemporary geopolitical situation at the end of 20-th and the beginning of 21-st century.
After that, Serbian spiritual and historical vertical line and its values cultural and identity
heritage - are being observed in the light of their correspondnce with the contemporary
Euroatlantic and Eurasian key ideas and geopolitical shemes. Work also tries to define how
and why those geopolitical options are influential in the Serbian geopolitical space. At the
end of the paper, possible institutional frameworks of geopolitical ccoperatioans and internal
complexity of both Eurasianism and Euroatlantism ar being observed, with the conclusions
pointed at the perspectives of the Balkan region given by both of them.
Key words: geopolitics, Balkan, Rimland, Atlantism, Eurasianism

16
HENRI DE GROSSOUVRE 327(497.11):327(4+470)

: 25.05.2015
: 17.06.2015

ACTUALIT DE LA SERBIE ENTRE

BRUXELLES ET MOSCOU
NON ALIGNEMENT ET RLE DE LA SERBIE AU CUR
DE LA NOUVELLE EUROPE

Les frontires historiques et culturelles de lEurope traversent la Serbie : les

empires dOrient et dOccident, lEurope du Nord et lEurope mridionale, lEurope
occidentale chrtienne et lEurope occupe par lempire Ottoman, lempire austro-
hongrois, et enfin aujourdhui la frontire de lUE dans laquelle sont entrs des pays
de lex-Yougoslavie dont la Serbie tait pourtant le centre de gravit. Vienne tait
certes la capitale de lempire des Habsbourg mais elle en tait plus le milieu que le
centre et ne contrlait par elle- mme quun territoire limit. Belgrade est en revan-
che avec la Hongrie voisine un des centres de gravit de lespace danubien et surtout
le passage oblig des routes stratgiques, fluviales, militaires, aujourdhui nergti-
ques. Etant un nud stratgique, du moyen-ge aujourdhui, la Serbie a ainsi tou-
jours t convoite par les puissances du moment, la maison sur le chemin sou-
vent cambriole et occupe rappelle une expression en langue serbe. Ds 1804
linsurrection serbe est la mre des librations des peuples des Balkans, les Grecs ne
suivront quen 1821, elle relve du mme esprit que les rvolutions franaises, am-
ricaines et italiennes. A la fin du XIXe sicle, le dclin ottoman permet aux Serbes
aids des Russes de recouvrer lindpendance, comme leurs voisins Bulgares et Ro-
umains. LEtat des Croates des Slovnes et des Serbes et le Royaume des Serbes est
cr en 1918 et la rpublique populaire fdrative de Yougoslavie en 1946. La
Yougoslavie de Tito stait dj constitu un statut spcial, elle chappait
lembargo occidental sur les hautes technologies qui frappait lURSS et a pu de ce
fait servir de plaque tournante pour les changes de matriel et de renseignement.
Aujourdhui ct de la rpublique de Serbie dont la capitale est Belgrade, le statut
de la Bosnie-Herzgovine a t rgl en 1995 Dayton par une partition entre la
fdration croato-musulmane et la rpublique serbe de Bosnie, dont la capitale est
Banja Luka et le prsident Milorad Dodik. Le Kosovo est considr par les Serbes
comme une province occupe.
Henri de Grossouvre, - ...
Lactuel premier ministre de Serbie, Alexandre Vui et le prsident de la r-
publique, Tomislav Nikoli sont des anciens du parti radical serbe, parti nationaliste
quils ont quitt en 2008 pour crer le SNS qui a poursuivi le rapprochement avec
lUnion Europenne. Le premier ministre Vui et le prsident Nikoli mnent une
politique trs pro-occidentale mais en mme temps ils ont organis la visite officielle
de Vladimir Poutine le 16 octobre dernier. Le premier ministre franais sest rendu
en Serbie quelques semaines aprs le prsident russe pour deux jours de visite offici-
elle pendant laquelle il a plusieurs fois rappel que la prsence conomique franaise
ntait pas la hauteur de lamiti entre les deux pays. Le 1er novembre a eu lieu
Belgrade la premire runion internationale de la Trilatrale dans ce pays. En d-
cembre, le premier ministre chinois se rend son tour en visite officielle dans une
Serbie dcidment trs courtise en peu de temps.

Depuis le Xllle sicle la Serbie est le symbole du non alignement

souverain et de la rsistance aux empires
Au XIIIe sicle Saint Sava, fils du premier roi serbe Etienne Nemania obtient
que lglise de son pays soit la premire glise autocphale, indpendante la fois
de Rome et de Byzance, cela avant que la troisime Rome russe ne devienne auto-
cphale avec des consquences politiques similaires. La Serbie et lide serbe nais-
sent quand Saint
Sava migr au mont Athos obtient de Byzance que lglise serbe soit la pre-
mire glise autocphale, avant lglise russe. De cette ide dcoulent une concepti-
on du pouvoir souverain et de la politique que feront leurs de plus grandes puissan-
ces europennes comme la France et la Russie. La France, longtemps fille ane de
lglise, fut aussi toujours rtive aux empires, et la Russie o les pouvoirs
politiques et religieux ont toujours t intimement lis. Au mont Athos, Etienne
Nemania rejoindra son fils Sava, eux deux ils y rvolutionneront la vie spirituelle
et en organisant de riches donations construisent et rparent plusieurs monastres. Ils
sont aussi lorigine du monastre serbe du mont Athos, Hilandar, qui jouira rapi-
dement de la pleine autonomie grce lempereur Alexis III Ange (1195-1203)
linstar des plus grands monastres de la Sainte Montagne. Par la suite, les Serbes
joueront le rle de gardiens des marches de la chrtient face lempire ottoman. La
tradition de partisans, de hadouks, de rebelles aux empires pris de libert et de
souverainet, lment important de lidentit serbe a t forge au fil des sicles par
la rsistance lempire ottoman, puis lempire habsbourgeois. La chevalerie serbe
ayant t dcime la bataille de Kosovo Polje en 1389 et la Serbie ayant t large-
ment occupe par les Ottomans, laristocratie hrditaire ne sy est pas dveloppe
comme en Europe occidentale mais paradoxalement le peuple serbe, largement
dorigine paysanne revendique lhritage de la chevalerie serbe qui vit dune certai-
ne manire en lui. Il y a encore peu de temps la plupart des familles serbes connais-
sait par cur leur gnalogie sur sept huit gnrations. Engels considrait ainsi que
les Serbes taient contre rvolutionnaires et fodaux par leur position et leur histoi-
re! La tradition serbe du serbe du non alignement, du XIIIe sicle aujourdhui en
18
 , . XII (2015), , . 17-22
passant par la premire confrence des non aligns du 1er septembre 1961 Belgra-
de, est ancienne, elle a des origines, religieuses, gographiques, et politiques, les
trois tant intimement lies. Aujourdhui la Serbie est aussi au cur des routes et des
enjeux nergtiques de lEurope, nous y reviendrons. Cette tradition de non aligne-
ment, cette position stratgique, cette tradition de souverainet politique sont la rai-
son principale de lacharnement des Etats-Unis dmanteler, au lendemain de la
chute du mur de Berlin, la Yougoslavie dont le centre de gravit tait serbe, puis la
Serbie. Lorthodoxie, partie prenante de lidentit serbe est galement aujourdhui
un facteur de rsistance la globalisation librale, car contrairement au catholicisme
post conciliaire et au protestantisme, lorthodoxie nest pas soluble dans le librali-
sme.

16 octobre 2014 : visite officielle du prsident russe

Malgr des trombes deau, le prsident russe Vladimir Poutine a t acclam
par 200.000 Serbes. Les deux prsidents ont assist au premier dfil militaire serbe
depuis 1918 et le premier en Serbie depuis 1985, alors que la Serbie tait le cur de
la Yougoslavie. Ce dfil clbrait la victoire contre le fascisme et la libration gr-
ce aux partisans serbes aids par la Russie sovitique. Aux Mig russes dans le ciel de
Belgrade faisaient cho les troupes serbes chantant la marche des rsistants : dans
les forts et les montagnes. Si le gouvernement est clairement pro-occidental et
sactive pour lentre de la Serbie dans lUE, la population est quant elle oppose
cette entre mme si elle serait favorable des accords commerciaux ne limitant pas
la souverainet serbe. Aujourd'hui la Serbie a le statut d'observateur au sein de
l'organisation du trait de scurit collective (OTSC en russe -
), le pendant de l'OTAN mis en place par la Rus-
sie avec ses allis. Lanne prochaine, la Serbie prendra la prsidence de l'OSCE, la
seule organisation de scurit qui rassemble la totalit des tats du continent euro-
pen ainsi que les tats-Unis. Une srie daccords conomiques et stratgiques ont
t signs durant la visite du prsident russe. Par exemple un accord de production
de voitures de l'usine de lex Yougoslavie Zastava, allie aujourdhui Fiat a aussi
t sign entre la Serbie et la Russie. Les accords de libre change entre la Russie et
la Serbie sont galement renforcs. Plus important, un accord dont la presse occiden-
tale na quasiment pas parl, a t conclu pour permettre aux employs du centre
humanitaire de Nis, qui compte des ressortissants russes, de jouir de limmunit
diplomatique. Le centre daide humanitaire de Nis est situ dans une ville du Sud de
la Serbie, quelques kilomtres de la base militaire amricaine de Bondsteel au
Kosovo. Ce centre a t cr pour faciliter les interventions humanitaires dues aux
catastrophes naturelles comme les inondations qui ont rcemment ravag des rgions
de Bosnie et de Serbie depuis juin dernier. Le 3 octobre, la visite du prsident russe
avait t dune certaine manire prpare par la crmonie et le concert Belgrade
accompagnant la premire mondiale de Coup de soleil, le dernier film du cinaste
russe Nikita Mikhalkov (Le barbier de Sibrie, Les yeux noirs...), un artiste trs
mdiatique et proche du pouvoir, fils dun dignitaire sovitique et petit fils dun
aristocrate russe.
19
Henri de Grossouvre, - ...

17 octobre 2014: colloque Paris Berlin Moscou Belgrade et naissance du

rseau Nouvelle Europe
Le lendemain de la visite officielle du prsident russe, tait organis dans le
centre de la capitale serbe un colloque international sur le thme Paris Berlin Mos-
cou Belgrade. Durant ce colloque plaidant pour une plus grande Europe de la
paix, a t lance lide de crer un rseau dassociations et de fondations paneuro-
pennes qui prendrait le nom de Nouvelle Europe. Un mois plus tard, le 25 no-
vembre 2014, un manifeste1 dinspiration gaullienne a t sign Paris, manifeste
instaurant le rseau Nouvelle Europe. A la signature du manifeste le 25 novembre
2015 Paris taient aussi notamment prsents le dput franais Claude Goasguen,
le prsident de la fondation Promthus Bernard Carayon, des chefs dentreprises,
des dlgus hongrois, des journalistes comme le grand reporter du Figaro Renaud
Girard, les dirigeants de lassociation le dialogue franco-russe (co-prside par le
dput Thierry Mariani et par Vladimir Yakounine le prsident des chemins de fers
russes). Les premiers signataires sont lorganisation franco-allemande le Forum
Carolus, laboratoires dides europen Strasbourg prsid le baron Nikolaus von
Gayling-Westphal, lu du FDP Fribourg en Brisgau, lassociation Paris Berlin
Moscou, prside par moi-mme, deux organisations italiennes : une association
vocation sociale Modavi, de Naples, prside par luniversitaire Alessandro San-
soni et lordre des journalistes dItalie (Movimento Unitario Giornalisti) de Domni-
co Falco (ancien prsident national) et deux organisations serbes, Alternative pour
la Serbie, fdration de mouvements et la fondation Dostojanstvo (dignit). Cette
fondation, avec le mouvement troisime Serbie2 prsid par Miroslav Parovi
taient les principaux organisateurs du colloque du 17 octobre. Miroslav Parovi a
rappel en introduction pourquoi la Serbie avait toujours t convoite, tant un
nud stratgique, il a aussi dvelopp les enjeux nergtiques auxquels doivent faire
face les pays du continent europen, enfin il a donn son analyse de la crise ukraini-
enne, rvlatrice de lurgence de trouver des solutions europennes des problmes
europens. Parmi les nombreux intervenants venus de Russie, dAllemagne,
dAutriche, dItalie, de France, le professeur Nenad Krsti, de luniversit de Novi
Sad est intervenu sur le gnral de Gaulle et la Serbie et le franco-macdonien Go-
ran Sekulovski, de lInstitut Saint Serge sur le rle de lorthodoxie pour laxe de la
paix Paris Berlin Moscou. Andrej Fajgelj, directeur de lInstitut Culturel Serbe de
Novi Sad est intervenu dans un franais parfait sur les liens historiques anciens unis-
sant la France et la Serbie, ds le XIIIe sicle, avec notamment le rle jou par la
reine de Serbie et princesse franaise, Sainte Hlne dAnjou. Viktor V. Kolbanovs-
ky, reprsentant du vice-prsident de la Douma a insist sur la ncessit de mettre en
relation les organisations uvrant pour la coopration et la paix sur le continent
europen. Lambassadeur russe Konouzine, trs connu pour ses positions courageu-
ses durant les bombardements de 1999 occupait une place dhonneur. Une dition
traduite en serbe de mon livre Paris Berlin Moscou3, la voie de lindpendance et

1
Version quadrilingue du manifeste sur:
http://apres-le-non.forum-carolus.org/media/00/00/3861034995.pdf
2
http://trecasrbija.rs/
3
Sur Paris Berlin Moscou, voir www.paris-berlin-moscou.org
20
 , . XII (2015), , . 17-22
de la paix, paru en 2002 a t prsente et distribue pendant le colloque. Ce livre
avait t prfac, dans la premire dition de 2002 par le gnral Pierre Marie Gallo-
is, thoricien et artisan de la dissuasion nuclaire franaise auprs du gnral de
Gaulle. Il avait t publi presque un an avant que les trois pays nadoptent une posi-
tion commune contre la guerre durant la crise iraquienne. Jai rappel le 17 octobre
les thses principales de ce livre et retrac lhistorique de Paris Berlin Moscou, de
la crise iraquienne aujourdhui. Depuis la seconde guerre mondiale, les pays Euro-
pens sont quasiment sortis de lhistoire, malgr la parenthse gaullienne et malgr
la relative mancipation de lAllemagne runifie qui ne dispose pas et ne disposera
sans doute pas de tous les attributs de la puissance politique et militaire traditionnel-
le. Malgr la pression des milieux conomiques trs puissants en Allemagne fdra-
le, la chancelire Merkel a dans les six derniers mois adopt la position radicale du
bloc occidental vis--vis de la Russie dont la ligne est fixe par les Etats-Unis. Alors
que dans les dernires annes lAllemagne avait plutt modr la position occidenta-
le. Au sein du gouvernement allemand actuel, Steinmeier et son collaborateur Erler
jouaient un rle conciliant quils ont brutalement abandonn. Ce retournement spec-
taculaire sera-t-il durable? Est-il le fruit de daccords entre les Etats-Unis et
lAllemagne? Le rsultat de la dgradation des relations personnelles entre la chan-
celire et le prsident russe? Le rsultat de calculs conomiques allemands en Euro-
pe centrale et orientale? Le prsident Hollande a effectu dbut dcembre une visite
surprise garde secrte Moscou o il sest entretenu pendant une heure et demie
avec le prsident russe. Cela est dautant plus surprenant que ses positions avaient
jusqu prsent toujours t trs proches de celles de nos allis amricains. Mme si
lhistoire sacclre il faut garder lesprit les donnes gographiques et historiques
et les tendances conomiques moyen et long terme. La France est la pninsule
europenne, elle est une sorte de condens de lEurope, relevant la fois culturelle-
ment de lEurope du Nord, de lEurope mditerranenne et de lEurope centrale par
lAlsace. Elle a la fois une vocation mditerranenne mais surtout une vocation
rhnane, franco-germanique, illustre par le commun empire de Charlemagne
quvoquait rgulirement le gnral de Gaulle pour reconstruire la coopration
franco- allemande. LAllemagne joue un rle cl au centre de lEurope. La Russie
est le lien entre lEurope centrale et le monde pacifique en expansion. La France,
lAllemagne et la Russie de par leur position, leur histoire, leur masse critique ont la
capacit de crer une dynamique vertueuse et source de paix et de prosprit sur le
continent europen, cest le principal message de mon livre et du colloque de Bel-
grade du 17 octobre. Mais le rle cl de Belgrade prend tout son sens aujourdhui
car ds le dbut Paris Berlin Moscou a t pens comme un moteur non exclusif
destin tre le catalyseur de la plus grande Europe.

La Serbie nouvelle plaque tournante entre lUE et la Russie,

la Vovodine sa province cl
Depuis quelques annes, la Serbie comme la Bosnie fait lobjet
dinvestissements importants de Russie, de Chine, dAutriche ou dAllemagne. Cela
est particulirement spectaculaire dans le secteur nergtique. Lukoil a rachet Ju-
21
Henri de Grossouvre, - ...
gopetrol et la partie ptrolire de Gazprom dtient 51% de NIS la socit de distribu-
tion du ptrole en Serbie en contrepartie Gazpromneft sest engage investir dans
la modernisation des raffineries serbes et dans la construction de centres de stockage
de gaz naturel (Alexis Troude4) En fait, ds 1997, aprs la dcouverte dimportants
gisements dhydrocarbures en mer caspienne, la Serbie est devenue le cur des r-
seaux gaziers et ptroliers. Alexis Troude explique aussi que le Kosovo se trouve
lintersection des corridors nergtiques europens IV, VIII et X. Par ailleurs les
dernires annes ont aussi rvles que la Serbie serait plus fiable que lUkraine
pour acheminer gaz et ptrole vers lEurope de lOuest. La Serbie aurait accueilli
450 km de South Stream, le plus grand tronon, et aurait t un vritable hub de
distribution vers les pays voisins et lEurope occidentale. La plupart des organisate-
urs du colloque du 17 octobre Belgrade taient originaires de la province de Vo-
vodine, au Nord du pays. Ce nest pas un hasard, les habitants de cette province cl
sont sensibiliss ces thmes. South Stream et Nabucco passeraient par la Vovodi-
ne. Dbut dcembre, lass par la pression de lUE, la Russie a annonc dbut d-
cembre abandonner South Stream tandis que la construction de Nabucco est gale-
ment remise en question depuis un certain temps. Les investisseurs trangers, Autri-
chiens, Hongrois et Russes misent tout particulirement sur la Vovodine. La Vovo-
dine est le grenier bl de la Serbie. La Vovodine contrle aussi tout le cours du
Danube en Serbie qui la relie laxe fluvial europen Rhin-Main-Danube. Cette
province qui fut austro-hongroise abrite une minorit hongroise et a une frontire
commune avec ce pays de lUE qui se rapproche aussi de la Russie pour des raisons
stratgiques et nergtiques. Enfin cette province a une frontire commune avec la
Roumanie et la Bulgarie, deux pays importants dans le jeu dinfluences amricano-
russe.
Le gouvernement serbe ngocie ainsi activement son entre dans lUE et en
parallle veut conserver des relations privilgies avec la Russie. La Serbie pourrait
jouer le rle quavait obtenu lAutriche dans les annes soixante, une plaque tour-
nante stratgique entre lEst et lOuest. Il est dans lintrt des pays de lensemble
du continent europen de raviver les liens culturels qui les unissent et de dvelopper
de nouvelles cooprations conomiques et stratgiques. Le rseau Nouvelle Europe
dj constitu et en cours de dveloppement apportera sa contribution ce grand
projet. Il ne sagit pas dun choix anodin, mais du choix de la paix contre la guerre,
du choix de la libert de dfinir nos enjeux vitaux par nous-mmes et pour nous-
mmes, sans laisser un tiers les dfinir notre place.
Henri de Grossouvre5

4
Alexis Troude: La Serbie la Croise des chemins : corridors nergtiques, privatisations et guerre
du gaz, Revue gographique de lEst, volume 50, 2010.
5
Henri de Grossouvre est fondateur et dlgu gnral du Forum Carolus, prsident de lassociation
Paris Berlin Moscou et directeur des affaires publiques dune grande entreprise franaise.
22
 . 321:913(4+7)

: 18.06.2015
: 30.06.2015

21.

: -
, ,
,
21. .
-
status quo. -
, ,

, . ,
,
, .
: , , , , ,
,

, ,
-
19. , ,
. -
, , -
, ,
. ,
-
,
20.

ivanzaric@yahoo.com

.
 . , - ...
, 21. .
: (Alfred T. Mahan), e -
(Halford Mackinder) (Nikolas Spykman).
,

, -
, -
.
() -
, ,
(' -
' '') - ASEAN,
ANZUS, CENTO -
-
. (, 2004: 59) , ,
.

,
, -
, 1890.
1919. . , ,
.
, ,
,
, (Har-
tland),
. ,
,
. ,
19. 20. -
,
,
.1
,
2,

1
,
, , . ,
, .
2
: -
1660-1783 (The Influence of Sea Power upon History 1660-1783),
(The Influence of Sea Power upon French
Revolution and Empire) 1812 (Sea Power and its Relati-
ons to the War 1812).
24
 , . XII (2015), , . 23-37
1900.
. -
,
(Mahan, 1900: 24)

(Mahan, 1900: 26). , -
,
. ,

, ,

.
,
-
, -
.

, ,
(Mahan, 1900: 72).
,

-
-
. ,

-

-
, 1
(, 2004: 57)
, -

-
. , -
,
. 3, ,

(),
,
( 1).

3
: 1) -
. -
, 2) -
, - , 3)
.
25
 . , - ...
,
. (,
2009: 139)
,

. ,
(the union of
harts and hands)
,
, , / -
.
, -
. , , -
,
, -
. , -
-

. -
, .
-
,

, , -
(buffer states) -
,
-
,
''
-
. (Makinder, 2009: 31) -
-
,
, -
2 -
, (, 2012: 234)
-
. , -
, ,
,
, , , , , , , . -
-
,
()
. (, 2012: 233)

26
 , . XII (2015), , . 23-37


( 2). ,
, ,
,4

(buffer states) ,
. ,
: , , , , .
,
.

, ,
(Midland Ocean). ,
, -
, , ,
, -
. (, 2012: 236)
. -
- (-
), -.
,
,
. ,
.
.
. (Mackinder, 1943, 601) -
1904. , -
,
, ,
. (Mackinder, 1943, 601)
- , ,
, -
.5 ,
. -
, -

4
, , . ,
1919 1920. , ,
.
5

(Geography and Foreign Policy) 1938.
(Geographic Objectives in Foreign Policy)
1939. . , : -
: (Americas Strategy in World
Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power) 1942. (The
Geography of the Peace) 1944. .
27
 . , - ...
. , ,
, ,

.
, ,
-
, -
, , , , , , ,
, . (-
, 2007: 102)
,
, , ,

.
,

. ,
-

. (Spykman, 1944: 57-58)
, , -
, -
, -
, ,
. (, 2007: 122)
-
(Midland Ocean) -
. , ,
, 20.
.
, ,
, . ,
- .

, , . (, 2004: 65)
-
, ( -
), . (, 2004: 65-66)
,
, -
, -
.

, -

28
 , . XII (2015), , . 23-37
. , -
,
-
. (, 2007: 124)

21.
,
.
, .

(containment policy), . -
, ,
/ -
, -
.
, -
-
,
1949. 1955. , . . -
(1949.), 6 1951. , 7 1954.
8 1955. . , ,
, .

, .
, -
-
.
(Gray, 1990: 350) -
,
,
, , , -
, .
,
, .
, -
(...)
(...) -
. (,

6
ANZUS - Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty.
7
SEATO - Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation. , . , ,
, , , , . 1977.
8
CENTO - Central Treaty Organization. , , , , . .
1979. .
29
 . , - ...
2009: 463)
-
-
. -
, -
. -
,


. (Friedman
and Friedman, 1996: 97)
, -
, -
-
. , -
; -
, , ;
... (Beinski, 2001: 57)
2006.
, -
. (The
Withe House, 2006: 7)
-
. - ,
-
,
. ,
, -
.
. (Beinski,
2001: 57-59) -
, .
,
, -
.
()
, -
. , -
,

, , ,
- -
, .
(, 2004: 109) , -

30
 , . XII (2015), , . 23-37
(, 2004: 109)
-
.
,
- . ,
.
, -
, , .

2 - ''
( )

,
, -
.
,
,
. , ,
(1999), , , , ,
, (2004), , ,
(2009).
/
.
3
, , , ,
, -, -
, , , , , -
. -
( ).
31
 . , - ...

,
. -

. ,
.
, .
-
,

.
,
, , . -
, ,
.
,
() .
-
,
. , ,
600 . ,
, -
: -
, -
, (Makinder, 2009: 155)
, , -

.

/,
.9
, -
.
,
,
.
,
, -
-
, . (Beinski, 2001: 85-92)
-
, -

9
2007. , -
, .
32
 , . XII (2015), , . 23-37
. . ,


(Bialasiewicz and Minca, 2005: 366), -
, -
.

,
.
, -

(, , , -
, ). 20.
10 , .
, -
2008. .

.
, -
,
, . -
-
, -
.

,
, , , -
, . 3

,
. -
.

,
. ,
.
,


. ,
,
, .

10
, , , . ,
.
33
 . , - ...
,
, . -
, ,
, -
. , , -
,
-
.
, ,
, -
, , 2004. . , -
,
(, 2001: 100) -
. ,
,
. , -
, -
() .11 -
, , -
,
. , , , -
.
,
,
.
, 20. ,
-
.
, . , -
-
, , ,
, (, 2001: 102-108)
. ,

, -

.
12 -

11
/ , ,

.
,
, .
, ,
.
12
, , .
34
 , . XII (2015), , . 23-37
.
,
, , ,
( 3).

,
,
- .
,
. -
, -
, .
, ,
13, .14
,
,
. ,
, -
-
.
-
-
, . -
, -
, ,
.
-
, ,
, .

-
. ,
lose-lose , -
-

13
-
() ,
() .
-
, , .
14
(Everett Dolman) ,
,
.
35
 . , - ...
, -
,
( 15). ,
, ,
, -
.

:
1. Beinski, Zbignjev (2001): Velika ahovska tabla, Podgorica, Banja Luka, CID, Ro-
manov.
2. Bialasiewicz, Luiza, and Claudio Minca (2005): Old Europe, new Europe: for a geopoli-
tics of translation, Area, 37(4), Royal Geographical Society, Blackwell Publishing Ltd.,
Oxford: 365-372.
3. Budimir, eljko M. (2012): Makroregionalnu geopolitiko strukturisanje sveta: aktuel-
nost Makinderove Hartlend koncepcije, Nacionalni interes, 14(2), Institut za politike
studije, Beograd: 223-246.
4. Vukovi, Neboja (2007): Logika imperije - Nikolas Spajkman i savremena amerika
geopolitika, Beograd, Konras.
5. Gray, Collin (1990): War, Peace and Victory: strategy and statecraft for the next
century, New York, Simon & Schuster.
6. Dolman, Everett C. (2002): Astropolitik: Classical Geopolitics in the Space Age, Lon-
don, Frank Cass Publishers.
7. Dugin, Aleksandar (2004): Osnovi geopolitike geopolitika budunost Rusije, Beo-
grad, Ekopres.
8. Zari, Ivan (2009): "Mo mora" u geopolitici i geostrategiji SAD, Nacionalni interes,
6(3), Institut za politike studije, Beograd, 131-149.
9. Kisinder, Henri (2008): Diplomatija, Beograd, Klub Plus.
10. Mackinder, Halford (1904): The Geographical Pivot of History, The Geographical Jo-
urnal 23(4): 421-437.
11. Mackinder, Halford (1943): The Round World and the Winning of the Peace, Foreign
Affairs, 21(4), Council on Foreign Relations, New York: 595-605
12. Mahan, Alfred T. (1894): Possibilities of Anglo - American Reunion, The North Ameri-
can Review, 159(456), University of Northern Iowa: 551-563.
13. Mahan, Alfred T. (1900): The Problem of Asia and Its Effect upon International Polici-
es, Boston, Little, Brown, and Company.
14. Makinder, H. D. (2009): Demokratski ideali i stvarnost: Studija politike obnove, Beo-
grad, Metaphysica.
15. Mirajmer, Don (2009): Tragedija politike velikih sila, Beograd, Udruenje za studije
SAD u Srbiji.
16. Spykman, Nicholas (1944): The Geography of the Peace, New York, Harcourt, Brace.
17. Spykman, Nicolas (1942): America`s Strategy in World Politics, The United States and
the Balance of Power, New York, Harcourt, Brace.

15
,
. ,
.
36
 , . XII (2015), , . 23-37
18. Stepi, Milomir (2001): U vrtlogu balkanizacije: politiko-geografski poloaj i frag-
mentiranost srpskih zemalja, Beograd, Slubeni list SRJ, Institut za geopolitike studije.
19. Friedman, George, and Friedman, Meredith (1996): The Future of War: Power,
Technology and American World Dominance in the 21 st Century, New York, Crown
Publishers.
20. The Withe House (March 2006): The National Security Strategy of the United States of
America, dostupno na http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/nss2006.pdf (accessed April
16, 2015).

CLASSICAL EURO-ATLANTIC GEOPOLITICAL THEORIES

relevancy at the beginning of the 21st century
Summary: This paper studies the influence and significance of classical Euro-Atlantic
geopolitical theories, based on Alfred Mahans, Halford Mackinders and Nicholas
Spykmans works, on contemporary Europe and also examines their relevancy at the begin-
ning of the 21st century. The importance of the classical geopolitical theories is more and
more emphasized, having in mind fact that contemporary world is exposed to a current status
quo changes. Showing that two opposed geopolitical concepts are in conflict for decades, in
this paper it is stated that the front line between them is moved toward East, in favor of
euroatlantism, as well as that abovementioned process is not finished yet. At the same time,
final remarks of this paper providing insight into a Serbia geopolitical position, in line with
contemporary strategic changes, related to Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian concepts influences
above all.
Key words: geopolitics, geostrategy, Euroatlantism, Eurasianism, USA, NATO, con-
tainment policy

37
 321(497.11+497):321(4+7)
,,
: 05.05.2015
: 22.05.2015

: -
. ,
, -
, , .
,
, , -
.
() -
.
, ,
.
: , , , ,

, -
. -
- ,
, , -
, , -
,
1990- , -
.
, () (
, , ),
.

vukovic@neobee.net
 ,
, ,
1920- . -
, ,
(1890-1938) (1895-1968), -
, -
. , , ,
. ,
, , , -
, -
, , -
. , -

, ,, . -
, -
(1912-1992), -
, , , .
, ,
.
, ,
, .
,
1990- ,, (-
). ,
- , -
,
( , -
), -
, - (. , 1998: 109).
, 1990- -
, , , -
.
,
, - . -
, ,
. , -
,, , -
.
, ,
-
; -

; -

; -
; ()
40
 , . XII (2015), , . 39-53
(M. Laruelle, 2008: 203-204). ,
, , ,
, .
, -
. ,
. ,
-
, -
. -
,
.

, ()

(1962).
, , ,, (
).
, , -
() ( ), -
( ). , -
, ( , -
).
, , -
(
, , , - ). -
-, -
-
. ,
, -
, , -
. , -
()
-, , ,
(),
(), () ().
, ,
, ,
,
. , ,
,, , ,,,
, , ,,

41
 ,
(, 2000: 219).
, , -
, ,
ad hoc, .
, , -
, , -
, ,, .
, , ,,
-
, ,
, ,
(, 2000: 220). -
, -
() -
. , ,
,, , -
, -
, ,, .

1:
: (. , 2000: 227)

, -
. , -
,, , ,
. ,
, . -
. ,
42
 , . XII (2015), , . 39-53
- , -
,,
,
, (
). , -
, .
, , ,
, , -
. , . ,
, , , -
, ,
.
,
. ,
- - ,
, vice versa -
, , -
(, 2000: 226).
, -
, , ,
, -
. , ,
- ( ) -
( ),
, , (
) . ,
,
, -
, .
, -
,
. , -
. -
. -

, , .
-
, , ,
, , -
, (,
). ,
( -),
, . -
, , -
, ( ,
43
 ,
. ..) ( ) (, 2000:
347). , ,
, , , ,
(, 2000: 347).
, .
,

, (, , ,
, ) (, , 2010: 15). -
, ,, ,
, -
. ,,
-
1990- ,
. ,
,,,
. , -
( ) , , , ,, ,
(, 2011: 480).
, , -
, , -
. ,
, ,
,
- , -
. -
, -,
, - -
. ,
, ,
,
, , -
.
-
-

. , ,
.
, -
. ,
, -
. -
-
.

44
 , . XII (2015), , . 39-53

, -, ,
.
( )
.
2007. , ,
, 30 000 .
,
. , -
, . ,
,
,, . ,
I ,
,, : ?. , ,
, , -
, , ,
. ,
-
.
, -
. ,
. ,
, ,
(.
, . , 2007: 343). ,
, ,
, -
. , -
.
, -
, . -
, , ,


.
, , ,
, ,, -
(. , . , 2007: 352).
, , ,
, , -
. , , ,,
, (. -
, . , 2007: 297). ,
45
 ,
,
,
. , -
(. , . , 2007: 293).
, ,
, .
, ,
. ,
,, -
. ,
, ,
(. , . , 2007: 295).
, , -
(. , .
, 2007: 308). , ,
. , -
, . , ,
. , -
,,,
, , -
. ,
, , (. , . -
, 2007: 308-309). ,
, , ,, -
(. , . , 2007: 309).
, , -
-
. , , -
,, ( ) -
, 2004. , -,
. ,
,

.
,
. ,
, ,, , -
, (. , . , 2007: 309). -
,
, (.
, . , 2007: 309).
, ,
,, ,
(. , . , 2007: 310). , -

46
 , . XII (2015), , . 39-53
, -
, . , -
, ,
,,
, (. , . , 2007: 311).
, ,, -
,, , , -
, -
. -
, ,
. -
, -
,
, -
.
.
,
, , , -
. , -

, -
.

,

(1979) ,
.
, ,
.
2005. ,, ( -
) , ,
, -
.
, ,
, ,,
.
, () -
, , -
- -
. , (),
,, . ,
, , ,,
, ,
47
 ,
, , (. , 2005:
160). , -
/ ,
() ( 800.
), ,
() ( ).
, ,
.
, ,, . -
,
, ( ). ,
,,,
, , ,
. , , -
. ,
(. , 2005: 166). ,
. .
,,
. ,
,, ,
,
(. , 2005: 166). -
.
- :
, .
() , -
( ).
,
( ), ( ),
,, , , . ,
,, , ,
,,- -
(. , 2005: 167).
, .
,
,, - -
, ,, . ,
, , -
(. , 2005: 168). -
-
.
, , eo
, . , ,
, ,, -
-
48
 , . XII (2015), , . 39-53
, (. , 2005: 168). -
, -
- () :
. , ,, -
, ,
( ),
,, .
, , ,
, ,, -
.
,, , , ,, -
, , (. , 2005:
169).
,


. ,
,
. ,

, ,,.
,
(1974), -
, . -
. ,,Geopolitica.ru -
.
. , -
,, ( ).
, .
,, , . -
, -
.
, ,
.
, , ,
, -
. ,,
, -
,
(., 2011: 235). , , -
1963. -
, (., 2011: 236). , -
- - -
, . -
2000-, , -
49
 ,
, -
,
(., 2011: 237).
,
,
, -
.
,
, -
, 1990-, -
(., 2011: 239).
, -
, .
- , . ,
, -
, .

, -

, ;
;
(., 2011:
240). , -
, , , -
, , , .

. -
,
.
(1977),
, , -
.
, -
,,Evrazia.org .
. , ,
. -
,, : ( -
. ) 2014. .
,
1999. , . ,
, , . -
24. 1999. , , ,, -
, , -
(. , 2014: 94). , , ,

50
 , . XII (2015), , . 39-53
, , -
. ,
. ,
-
. , -
-
(. , 2014: 96).
,
, , ,
(-
, 2014: 98-99).
, , ,

. . -
, , -
-
() , -
. , -
, . (-
) (),
, , -
, -
. ,
,
. , -
,, ,
, (, 2014:
107).
, , -
, ,

. , -
, -
. , ? ,
(sic!) (,
2014: 108). , , -
. ,
( ),
. , ,
, .

, -
, .

51
 ,

, -
, , -
, ,
. , -
,
, , . ,

, ( ) ( ,
). , -
. ,,,
,
, . ,
, , -
-
.
-
, -
. ,

, -
, ,
. ,
.
, ,
, -
! , ,
, , , .
, , -
, ,,
,, -
. .
( ) -
, -

. , -
, -
, -

.
, -
, , -

52
 , . XII (2015), , . 39-53
. , ,
.
, -
. -

.

:
1. , (2000): . -
, ,
2. , , , (2010): -
HHI , , No.2.
3. , (2011): , , , -

4. , (2005): , ,
5. , (2011): , ,
6. , (2014): . ,
,
7. , (1998): , ,
8. Laruelle, Marlene (2008): Russian Eurasianism: an ideology of empire, Woodrow
Wilson Center Press, Washington D.C.,
9. , (2007): , -,

SERBIA AND THE BALKANS IN NEO-EURASIAN GEOPOLITICAL

CONCEPTION
Summary: This work explains the perception of Serbia and the Balkans within the
neo-Eurasian geopolitical conception. Through the method of subject matter analysis, the
author of this work has shown how Serbia and the Balkan region is understood in the works
of Alexander Dugin, Nikolay and Vladimir Nartov, Arkady Maler, Leonid Savin and Valery
Korovin. Analyzing their attitudes, the author of this work has reached a conclusion that the
previously mentioned authors observe Serbia and the Balkans as a whole as an important
geopolitical area, which is of exceptional geostrategic importance for the Russian Federation.
In addition, their position in terms of Eurasian integrations of the Balkans (Serbia) with the
Russian Federation is described and commented. It is pointed out that there are shortcomings
in the authors attitudes regarding weak implementation of integrational ideas, insufficient
consideration on the cooperation models, as well as small possibilities of realizing certain
ideas and projects.
Key words: Serbia, Russia, Balkan, geopolitics, Eurasia

53
 321(4-013):321(497)

: 15.05.2015
: 27.05.2015

:
: , -
. ,
. -
, -
, . -
. :
; ; ;
;
.
, : (1)
; (2) -
; (3) ; (4) .
: , , ,
.

-
, -
(, 2012: 109). -
, -
-
, .1 -

prorokovic@yahoo.co.uk
1

.
: - -
- -
, , -
, -
, , ,
 , ...

,
-
.2 , -
.3
, -
. ,
, (), , -
- .
, . (Peter Katzenstein)

- - (Katzenstein, 1997: 4),
(Ryszard Kapuciski)
(Todorova, 1998: 270). -
, , ,
(
, ,
).
, -
, 1718.
. , -
, .4
,
. ,
- .
(Otto Urban)
,
- . ,
, -

,

-
, , . (, 2012: 31)
2
, -
: I 23.11.2012. -
,
01.12.2012. .
3
, -
, ( ), .
(, 2007: 11). -
,
(, , 2006: 20).
4
( 1. 1814-9. 1815) -
Europa Intermediare,
(Hroch, 2000: 23),
, .
56
 , . XII (2015), , . 55-64
, - -
(Urban, 1994: 227-231). (Massimo
Cacciari)
: - (, 2010:
7). (Maciej Janowski), , -
, -
-Geschichtsregion (Janowski, 1999: 93). -
. ,
-Kultur
(Makinder, 2009: 144), -

. Kultur -
. -
, -
,
- ( -
).5
() , -
.
, ,
, ;
,
, ; -
,
, ,
. -
, , -
: .
, , -
,

(, 2014: 7).

5
, XIX
( -Ergnzungswirtschaft),
. , , -
- , ; -

(Grossraumwirtschaft) -
(Rothschild, 1974: 23). -, -
, ,
( 4 ) -
: , ,
. ,
, -
, , -
, (-
, 2012: 154-155).
57
 , ...
(Stndigen Ausschuss fr
geographische Namen-StAGN) -
(Hosbawn, 1989: 17-19).
(Peter Jordan), -
: 1)
; 2) -
(Jordan, 2005: 162-173).
-
, , , , , ,
, .6
-
,
.
.

, Kultur-,
, (Konrd Gyrgy), -
. -
,
, -
.7
,
,
( , -
) , -
. , -
, , , -
.
(
).

6
, , ,
: - ; -- ; ,
, ; ; ; -
; (, 2014: 45).
7
, -
, : .
,
. , -
.
, -
.
, () .

,
. ,
, (, 2014: 239-240).
58
 , . XII (2015), , . 55-64
-

8.

, ,
.
.
, , -
. ,
,

. ,

. , ,
, ... ,
, .

.

. /.../ -
, -
.
, , -
(, 2013: 73-74).
,
,
.
,
,
. , () ,
, . -
,

/.../ , -

8

:

300 . ,
, , , . -
,
.
, ,
.
,
- , -
, , , . (Van Kreveld, 2012: 405)
59
 , ...
, - ,
, .
. -
, -
-
- , ,
,
(, 2013: 72).

, ,
limes,
. (Ka, 2010: 7).
, .
,
,
,

- -
, , , , .
, ,
. (, 2014: 8).
, -
, -

. -
, -
. -
,
,
.
-
-
.
, ,
( -
). , , -
(), -
, ,
. -
, -
, -
,
. -
2014. .

60
 , . XII (2015), , . 55-64
. -
, . -
, -
- .
--, -
.
-
-- -
. , -
,
(-
, 2014: 9-27).
,
, -
, -

(, 2014: 264-286).
XXI 4,4
,
2050. 6,5 . -
-
18,55%, 15,80% 2025, 13,64% 2050. (,
2005: 142-143).
,
, -
, .
, ,
( !?) ,
.
, -
. ,
-
. -
,
,
01.01.2018. .
, -

,
, .
-
, -
,
, (,

61
 , ...
2014: 287-301). , .

. -
-
.
-
. -

.

. ,
, , ,

.
!
,
. -
-
. , -
,
!
.
, -
-, -
.
. ,
, ,

.
,
, -
-, -
- .

:
1. Van Kreveld, Martin (2012): Uspon i propadanje drave, Albatros plus: Fakultet bezbe-
dnosti, Beograd.
2. Janowski, Maciej (1999): Pitfalls and Opportunities. The Concept of East Central Eu-
rope as a Tool of Historical Analysis, East European Review of History, VI, I/1999, str.
91-100.
3. Jordan, Peter (2005): Grogliederung Europas nach kulturrumlichen Kriterien, Euro-
pa Regional, Heft 4, 13. Jahrgang, Leibniz-Institut fr Lnderkunde, Leipzig, str. 162-
173.
62
 , . XII (2015), , . 55-64
4. Katzenstein, Peter (1997): Mitteleuropa: Between Europe and Germany, Berghahn Bo-
oks, New York.
5. Kaari, Masimo (2010): Geofilozofija Evrope, Plato, Beograd.
6. Kilibarda, Zoran, Mijalkovski, Milan (2006): Geopolitika i terorizam, Nauna knjiga,
Akademija za diplomatiju i bezbednost, Beograd.
7. Makinder, Halford D. (2009): Demokratski ideali i stvarnost, Metaphysica, Beograd.
8. Petrovi, dr. Dragan (2007): Rusija na poetku HHI veka: geopolitika analiza, Institut
za politike studije Beograd, Novi Sad.
9. Prorokovi, Duan (2012): Geopolitika Srbije: poloaj i perspektive na poetku XXI
veka, Slubeni glasnik, Geopolitika, Beograd.
10. Prorokovi, Duan (2013): Zato je EU (geo)politiki nesamostalna, Nacionalni inte-
res, 16 (IX), br. 1/2013, str. 63-78.
11. Prorokovi, Duan (2014a): Nemaka geopolitika i Balkan: o ciljevima srednjoevrop-
skog kontinentalizma, Catena Mundi, Beograd.
12. Prorokovi, Duan (2014b): Geopolitika dimenzija makroregionalnih strategija EU,
Nacionalni interes, 19 (H), 1/2014, str. 9-27.
13. Rothschild, Joseph (1974): East Central Europe Between The Two Wars, University of
Washington Press, Seatle.
14. Todorova, Marija (1998): Imaginarni Balkan, igoja, Beograd.
15. orovi, Radoslav (2005): Podjeljeni svet: globalni sjever i globalni jug, Globus, br.
30 (HHH), str. 141-148.
16. Urban, Otto (1994): Evropanstv a stedn Evropa v historick retrospektiv,
Historick obzor, 5 (10), str. 227-231.
17. Hosbawn, Eric (1989): Mitteleuropa. Politik und Kultur. Heimweh nach Kakanien und
die vergessene Gegenwart, Wiener Tagebuch, Nr. 11, str. 17-19.
18. Hroch, Miroslav (2000): Central Europe: The Rise and Fall of an Historical Region, u:
Central Europe. Core or Periphery?, Copenhagen Business School Press, Copenhagen,
str. 21-34.

Central European kontinentalizam vier mgliche

Szenarien fr den Balkan
Resmee: Der mitteleuropische Kontinentalismus ist ein geopolitisches Konzept, das
von zwei Dingen gekennzeichnet ist: der mitteleuropischen Bestimmtheit und einer aus-
serordentlichen kontinentale Dimension. Deutschland ist ebenso die tragende Sule des mit-
teleuropischen Kontinentalismus, obwohl dieses Konzept auch vom mitteleuropischen
nichtdeutschen Faktoren beeinflut wird. Der mitteleuropische geopolitische Vektor auf
dem Balkan ist immer strker, vor allem dank dem Prozess der Europaintegration, doch er ist
nicht der einzige. Traditionell sind auch andere geopolitische Faktoren prsent. Der Balkan
ist fr Mitteleuropa von Bedeutung aus fnf Grnden: wegen seiner geographischen Lage,
der energetischen Sicherheit, der geokonomischen Verbindung, wegen der Frage der Sic-
herheit und als mgliches Transitgebiet fr Massenmigrationen aus dem globalen Sden.
In der Errterung der Schlufolgerungen darber wie sich der mitteleuropische Kontinenta-
lismus in Zukunft gegenber dem Balkan aufstellen wrde, sind vier mgliche Szenarien

63
 , ...
offensichtlich: (1) der Balkan als das Grenzgebiet Mitteleuropas; (2) der Balkan als das Ge-
biet ausserhalb der Grenzen Mitteleuropas; (3) der Balkan als die Aufteilungszone; (4) der
Balkan als der Sttzpunkt der Durchdringung.
Schlsselwrter: Mitteleuropa, Geopolitik, mitteleuropischer Kontinentalismus, der
Balkan

64
 315.334.3:327(4+497.11)

: 06.05.2015
: 20.05.2015

:

.

, , -
.
. ,
.
: , , E, , , , -

-
, , . -

,
-
. -
,
, ,
- .
, , -
, (
), -
, -
.
,
, ,

ljubisa@kpolisa.com
 , - ...
. -

(, , , ) -

, . ,
,
,
- . -
, , , , , -
, () -
, .
( , -),
,

,
-.
-
,
-
.

, -

,
(
) -
.
-
,
-
.
- - -
- ( 1996 )
.

,
.
( .
. , . , . .) -

, ,
.
66
 , . XII (2015), , . 65-80
,
,
,

, . -
-

. -
, , -
, - -
.1 ,
- (-
: , , )
- -
, ,
, , , , ,
, , , -
. -

. -

(),
, -
,

. .
- , -
. , -
(...) ,


, .2

:
- -
.
. -
-
.
-
-
, , , ,
.

1
. , (2013) , , , .23.
2
. , (2004) , , , .101-102
67
 , - ...
-
. -
. , -
- -
,
.3
-
,
, , .
-
-
. .
- , -
. : ,
, , -
...
-
. -
: -
. .
. -
- -
, , -
. .4
- , , -
. . -
. ,
. .
- - -
- 400. 500 .
- , . ()
, . -
-
. .
- .

.5
- -
. -
, -
. -
,
. ,
.6

3
, 104.
4
, 7.7.2015. .
5
. (2009) , , , .77.
6
, 8. 4. 2015., .
68
 , . XII (2015), , . 65-80
- . -
, .
. , -
,
, , ,
;
.7

, :
- -
.
-
.
-
, -
.
,
.8
- - -
-,
-
. -
-
. New World Order
: ,
.9
:
. 150.000.
. -
.
.10
- -

-
(, , , ).
: ,
. , , , . (...)
, , ,
. , , ,
.11
- - 2000
: -

7
. (2006) , , , .77.
8
. (2014) , , , , , .
, 56.
9
. . 51.
10
: , 26. . 2015. .
11
. .47.
69
 , - ...
- - -
.12
- -

. ,
.13
-
-
Le Figar: -
(Royal Institute of International Affairs) a -
- (Council of Foreing Relations) (18.
1999.) : , -
.14

-
. -
-
:
- , , : -
. -
100.000 . -
-

.15
- : -
:
, ,
, ?16 .
-
, -
, .
- :
, ...17

, . .
. ,
. , -
10 . -
2002. 13,4 %
2008. 21 %.

12
. (2014) , , , , , .
, . 7.
13
, .35.
14
, . 54.
15
. . . .118.
16
, .34.
17
. . 34.
70
 , . XII (2015), , . 65-80
. , -
, ,
, ,
700.000 ( 10% ). ,
10
( , ), ,
-
. , 10% -
, (
) . , -
, .
(
). , ()
2001-2011, .
2000. . , 2011.
. ;
2000. 10,4 , 2011. 46,8 .18

.
(32% -) (28% -) (...) -


.19
:
- -
, : , ,
. -,
( ) . ,
, .20
,
. -

, ,


.
-
. .

, -
,

18
. (2015) '''', ,
, .
19
. . , .48.
20
. (2007) , , , .133.
71
 , - ...
.
,

, , , , .
-
-
, -
,
, -
.21
-
-
. -
. -

.
.22 ,
, -
.
-
.
,
.
- , . -

.23
, -
-
( -
)
(, , , .)
-
. , -
1,9.
1,38. -
1990 , 90% . 30%
20. . 30
30 . -
50% . 23.
, . 25 % -

21
. . (2014) , , . 23 .
22
. . . . 52.
23
. (2012) - , ,
.24.
72
 , . XII (2015), , . 65-80
24
... , -
2050
.
-
.25
-
.26
- , -
,
.
, - -
20 .27
- .
-
, , . -
-
.


. - -
-

.
-
.
.
-
-. .
-
.
, -
-
. , ,
. ,
, -

24
. (2012) 3. ,
25
. , 19. , 2015. . .
26
.
.
.
, . ,
, ,
. , 17.6.2015.
27
. (1998) , , , ,
.274.
73
 , - ...
, -
-
.28

-
-

: , , -
, , , -
, , .
-

, , , , ,
, , -
. -
, -
, . -
:
- ,
,
1999 .
- , , -
- -
, : , , -
, , -
,
.29
-
, .
-
.
,
, .
, -

, ,
, ,
.30

28
. (2014) : ,
.1. , , .37.
29
. (2014) , , , .332.
30
. (2010) ,
, ,
, , .23.
74
 , . XII (2015), , . 65-80
- -
, ,
, , . -
, -
-
, -
- .
-
.
- , , ,
.
. ,

.
, -
31 .

. -
. : - .
-
; - . ,
- .
, .32
- , -
, , ,
, -
, , , -
.
- , -
. . -
,

, . -
, .
,
- -
.33

, ,
,

:
- , -
.

31
. .23.
32
. (2007) , , . , .89.
33
, . (2014) , , . , .81.
75
 , - ...
- -
().
- -
, .
- , -
.( . 2001.)
( -
) :
- , -
. , -
( ),
- - .
(...) -
, ,
.34
- , - -
.
, , -
, .35
- , -
. , , , , -
, .36

- ?
, -
-

?

, -

, -

.

.

,
.
-
,
,

34
. (2012) , . , , . 725.
35
.(2015) , , , .241.
36
. (2012) , , , .132.
76
 , . XII (2015), , . 65-80
, ,

.
-
.
-
, -
,
.
,
, -
-
. .
: -

, -
,
, ,
.37

-
, ,
.38 -
. ,
, -
.
, -
. . , ,
39
, . -
-
. -
. ,
-
, .
,

, , , -
- .40 -

37
. . , . 247.
38
. (2013) , , .
39
. (2012) , , , .53.
40
. . (2013) , ,
, , .302.
77
 , - ...


.
, -
-
, -
.
. , .
-
,

-
. -
, -
.41
:
.
. ...42
, -

- -
-
.
. , -
- -
.43 -
,


.
, -
,
,
,
. -
. -

41
.
, , 36. ,
73 , ,

, 45 . , , , , 751 -
, 154 . ,
17.6. 2015.
42
(1998) . , . 274.
43
. (2014) , , , , . , .201.
78
 , . XII (2015), , . 65-80
-- . . 1990-
25 . 56
85 . 70 -
. 4-5 .
,
, .
,
, .
.

-. ,
-
. -
, .44
.
.
,
. , -
. , ,
,
(...) 2008.
, . -
.45
, ,

. -

, , , -
, -
. ,

.

:
1. Aleksis T. (2007) Geopolitka Srbije, Slubeni glasnik, Beograd
2. Aleksis-il T. (2013) Razaranje Balkana, Metella, Beograd
3. Brdar M. (2007) Srpska tranziciona ilijada, Stilos, N. Sad
4. Beinski Z. (2004) Ameriki izbor, Cid, Podgorica
5. Beinski Z. (2009) Druga ansa Amerike, Slubeni glasnik, Beograd
6. Vlajki E. (2006) Ameriki teror, Besjeda, Banja Luka

44
: , 7.7.2015.
45
. (2009) , . , , .117.-123.
79
 , - ...
7. Grosuvr de A. (2014) Pariz, Berlin, Moskva, Put nezavisnosti i mira, Fond Dostojans-
tvo, N. Sad
8. Guskova J. (2010) Savremeni geopolitiki poloaj Srbije, kao rezultat aktivnosti spolj-
nog faktora u uslovima globalizacije, u zborniku Srbija u savremenom geostratekom
okruenju, Medija centar Odbrana
9. Gaji A. (2015) U vrtlogu tranzicije, IES, Beograd
10. Gainovi R. (2015) Spreiti potapanje Srbije u ''Atlantiku'', Kultura polisa, posebno
izdanje, N. Sad
11. Del Val A. (1998) Islamizam i Sjedinjene Drave, alijansa protiv Evrope, Slubeni list
SRJ, Beograd
12. Despotovi Lj. (2012) Srpska geopolitika paradigma, Kairos, Sremski Karlovci
13. Despotovi Lj. (2014) Konstrukcija i dekonstrukcija identiteta, FEPPS, N. Sad
14. Despotovi Lj. uri . (2014) Geopolitika siromatva, Kultura polisa, br. 23 Novi Sad,
15. Kneevi M. (2014) Prizma geopolitike, IPS, Beograd
16. Polek D. (2007) Svjetsko carstvo i njegovi neprijatelji, Jasenski i Turk, Zagreb
17. Stepi M. (2001) U vrtlogu balkanizacije, Slubeni list, Beograd
18. Stepi M. (2004) Srpsko pitanje geopolitiko pitanje, Jantar, Beograd
19. Stepi M. (2013) Geopolitika neoervoazijstva, IPS, Beograd
20. Stepi M. uri . (2013) Srbija i evroazijski geopolitiki prostor, zbornik radova, IPS,
Beograd
21. Miloevi Z. (2012) Identitet Evrope - budunost muslimana u EU, IPS, Beograd
22. Miloevi Z. uri . (2014) (Dez)integracija drava i identitet, zbornik radova, IPS,
Beograd
23. Mitrovi R. M. (2014) Geopolitika tranzicija Balkana, Prometej, N. Sad
24. Petrov V. (2009) Oerki russkoi geopolitiki, Troica, Moskva
25. Prorokovi D. (2012) Geopolitika Srbije, Slubeni glasnik, Beograd
26. Petrovi Z. Piroanac (2013) Vaingterna i Srbi, IPS, Beograd
27. Petrovi D. (2012) Geopolitika sredozemlja, IMPP, Beograd
28. Haled F. A. (2012) Globalni islam, Slubeni glasnik, Beograd

GEOPOLITICS OF DESTRUCTION
Summary: This paper will focus on the geopolitical position of Serbia and Serbian
countries in geopolitic environment of Euroatlantism and analysis of possible perspectives of
geopolitics in Serbia, in relation to the Eurasian geopolitics paradigm. Analytical moments
will be particularly emphasized, those which focus on devastating effects of the operation of
the concept of geopolitics destruction at the state, national, security and identity of Serbian
nation Corps. We will specifically try to examine the benefits of so-called New Europe, as a
possible framework of conceptual emancipation of European nations from destructive em-
brace of Atlantic hegemony.
Key words: Serbia, Balkans, geopolitics, identity, destruction

80
 327(4):327(497.11)

: 19.05.2015
: 17.06.2015

(
)

: XX
, XX
. , -
.
,

,
, -
.
a -

.
, .,
. ,
-
. ,
-
, .
: , , , , ,
, ,

XXI -
, .
, .
. -
2012.
- 47
 , ( ...
,1 2015. 70
. , ,
,
.

- ,
. . -
.
,
,
.
. -
,
.
,
. -
-
. .

. ,
, .
, -
. , ,
.
,
, , ,
,
. -
,
.
, -
, . , -
, , -
.

.

( , , -
, ).

1
, : ,
, 17. 10. 2012.
82
 , . XII (2015), , . 81-98
,
, .
, , -
.
- (Richard Coudenhove-Kalergi) -
1923. 1926. ,
. , : -
.
, ,
.

. -
1000
...2 , 1929.
, (Aristide Briand)
-
- .
,
.3
,
.
-
. 1913.
(Heinrich Wlffin). ,
, .
, 1914. 1953.
.
,4 -
.
1931.
.
, ( -

2
, ,
. 4/2009,, 2009, . 9
3
,
4
1913. 1920.
, ,
. -
1920-1921. ,
. 1931. (New Europe
Group), 1957. .
(Sir Patrick Geddes), 1915.
, ,
, . -
XXI
( , , 1914-2014, ,
, 7. , 2014. )
83
 , ( ...
) , -
(Erich Gutkind) (Frederik Willem van Eeden). -
1914. , :

, ...; -

, ;
-
, ... , ;
.5 1930.
-
, -
. , (Edou-
ard Herriot), 1931. ,
. ,
, ,
.6
,
, , -

, . -
, -
, . -
,
.7
,
, . -
-
. 1948.
,
. ,
, 5. 1949. 10
, , , , , ,
, , . ,
, . -
.
-
, . -
(Robert Schuman),
, (Jean Monnet), -

5
,
6
, ,
. 4/2009,, 2009, . 10,
7
, , 1914-2014, , , 7. ,
2014.
84
 , . XII (2015), , . 81-98
,
, .
( ) 9. 1950.

(), . . : "
, .

"8 ,
18. 1951, , 23.
, -
, , , ,
. , ,
, -
.
, ,
, ,
, , 10.
(Paul
Henri Spaak). , -
.
,
. , 15. 1955.
.
-
().
1956. , ,
25. 1957. . 1.
1958. .
, , .
,
, -
. -
, ,
, -
.
(Walter Hallstein).9
XX . , XXI -
, , , -
.
,
. , 10

8
. . (2002) , , . , .25.
9
, ,
. 4/2009, , 2009, . 9-11.
85
 , ( ...
. -
2002. 13,4 % 2008.
21 %. -
. , -
, , -
, ,
700.000 ( 10% ). ,
10
( , -
), , -
. ,
10% , -
( ) -
. , ,
. (
). ,
() 2001-2011,
. 2000. .
, 2011. .
; 2000. 10,4 ,
2011. 46,8 .10

.
, , ,
, ( ). , -
100 . , -
200 .
.

/ ;11
2003. . 2011.
42 146
86 306
28 101
11 61
14 72
18 136
12 39

10
, , (www.nspm.rs,) 31.
, 2012
11
, ,
(www.nspm.rs, ), 16. 2012.
86
 , . XII (2015), , . 81-98

:12
2004. 2011.
5,9% 10,9%
6,4% 10,8%
8% 15,6%
8,8% 13%
9,6% 12,1%

2007 4,5 % , -
, . 2011 7 %.
,

. ,
, ,
2004. .

/ ;13

14,1% (2003.) 21,1% (2011.)
8,6% (1993.) 13,9% (2010.)
14,1% (2003.) 21,8% (2008.)
5% (2003.) 17,5% (2010.)

-
,
2012. (
). , -

( 2001. 2011. ) 560.000. ,
, 48% ,
44%. -
2008. 6,9 2009. 9,2
2010. .14 , ( )
, ( ), -
, , , -
.

12
,
13
,
14
www.b92 net, 16.1.2012.
87
 , ( ...
1993. (-
Europe Agreement) . 1995. -
. 2007.
. (1993-2012.) -
, . 1993.
23 , 2011 , . 21 .
,
. 1993.
71, 2012. ( 6 )
1993.
. , 1993.
2005. . 1993. -
,
(2005. ) 10 35
.

, 1993-2005. : 1993. 4
, 2005. 35 .
. , , 31.
2006. 42 . (
2011.) 3 , 127
. -
() 11.
2012. .15 ( -
280 ). - -
23% . -
() -
, .
, ( -
) . ,
, -
. , , , , ,
, , , -
. , ( ) -
.
16
, 45 1-2
( ) : -
... -
, ,
, .17

15
. , , , 26.11.2012. ,
16
, , ,
, . ., , , 1996, . 17-45
17
. ,
(2008/ 115/01) , ,
88
 , . XII (2015), , . 81-98
: -
.?
,
120 328 .
,
, -
2013. 67 800 .
.
. (Franoise Le Bail) -
.18 ,
.
. ,
-
, -
, ,
.

(Margaret Thatcher) -

. -
-
. ,
e .
, -
.
,
, -
. -
XX , XXI
.19

,
,
(Jacques Delors).20

, 2009. ; ,. , , , 3.12. 2012.

18
, , . 1/2014, . 29,
19
Usherwood, Simon:Bruges as a Lodestone of British Opposition to the European Union, Collegi-
um, ,College of Europe, Bruges, 2004, . 7
20
, ,
, 1985, 1994. .( . ,
, , 3/2013, , 2013, . 85)
89
 , ( ...
-
,
. 2007. ,
52 ,
2015. 35 .21 ,
,
-
.
.
, , , -
. -
, , -
. ,
,

.
. 37 -
, -
26 2012. .22 38
, 31

, . , -
54, 56 58 .
10000 , ,
.23
, 48
-, 37
. -
.
75
, ,
. 50
, 30
.24 ,

.
300 , .

21
. , The Telegraph, 26.1. 2015.
22
, 17.9. 2013. ,
23
Blic online 17.9. 2013, 08, 59 h
24
Blic online 30.9. 2011, 09, 19 h
90
 , . XII (2015), , . 81-98

.
- a (PELT - Partnership
Project fr English Language Training) -
- .
- , , -
. , -
, -

? ,

.
, . , -
,
.
, (.
), -
. , -
, -
()
. ,
1999. ,
, , ,

.

.25

25
- 2000- -
( ) -
. , 2001. -
, () -
.
. 25. 2002. -
, -
, 2002. .


. ,
.
2001 2004. ,
-, 2008. .
2003. , -

,
. , -
, ,
- - . 2004. (
91
 , ( ...
, ,
. -
,
, -
.
,
,
,
(Michael Short) -
:
. -
, , , .26

. , .
,
. , ,

.
,
,
,

, .
, -
,
? ,
(Mark Fitzgerald)

. 1244. -
. 1244,
-
.

) , ( -
) -
. 2005,2006 2007. ,
. ,
- ,
29 000 70 000 . 2007-2009.
, -
, , , ,
,
( , IPAP, -
, , -
, 2015),
26
, , .
5/2000, , , 2000, . 127.
92
 , . XII (2015), , . 81-98
-
- ,
- . -
.
. ,
-
. .
-
. , ,
.
, .

() ,
. -
-
.

. -
, .
,
,
.
-

,
.
, , -
, -
. , -
, ,
. ,
. -

, -
, .
. -
-
, -
, . ,
( ),
. -
, -
.
-
.
93
 , ( ...
. ,
. ,
-
. -
, -
, . -
. ,

.
, . , , , ,
. , -
, . ,
, .
, . -
,
. 14.12. 2006.
,
.
, , -
, , -
, -
, -
. -
. -
, -
.
,
, , -
14 .27

7. 2006. -
, -
, 29. 2009. . -


,
, . , ,
, -

27
, : ,
, 17. 10. 2012.
94
 , . XII (2015), , . 81-98
, -
, , -
(, , , ...)
, , ....
,
, -
-
. -
.
, -
. -
-
-
. ,
, -
,
.28 , -
,
.
.
, -
, . : -
, ? 9
, ,
, , -
, -
.29 : , ,
, ?
,
. , ,

, , , -
. , -
, , .
.
, ,
. -
, , -
,
- , , , -
.

28
, , , , . 361 20 2015, . 3 9,
29
, . 8.
95
 , ( ...
. ,
. -
. -
, , -
. 70%
. ,
, -
. , , -

() . , -
,
. -
,
, .
, ,
.
, ,
-
. , ,
-
. , ,

.30
,

, ().

:
1. Antoni, S., Viteka Srbija, igoja tampa. Beograd, 2011,
2. Goluer, E., Nacija i nacionalizam, Matica srpska, Novi Sad, 1997,
3. Jevtovi, G. Direktno su povezani IPAP, Briselskim sporazumom i potinjavanje Srbije
njenim neprijateljima, Fond strateke kulture, Beograd, 2015,
4. Janjevi, M. Konsolidovani Ugovor o Evropskoj uniji i Ugovor o funkcionisanju Evrop-
ske unije(2008/S 115/01) sa Poveljom o osnovnim pravima Evropske unije, Slubeni
glasnik, Beograd, 2009.
5. Mirovi, D. ta je EU donela Bugarskoj, Nova srpska politika misao (www.nspm.rs)
16. jun 2012 i 31,oktobar, 2012
6. Nei, M. Evroskepticizam u porastu: Mladi se najvie protive EU, Radio slobodna Evro-
pa, 17. 10. 2012
7. Pajin, D. Stogodinjica ideje o Evropskoj uniji, 1914-2014, Politika, Beograd, 7. mart,
2014.
8. Risti, M. Jug Srbije na dnu Evrope, Privredni pregled, 26.11.2012.
9. Radovan Radinovi, Srbija u NATO zagrljaju, Veernje novosti, 23. mart, 2015

30
. , , , 23. , 2015, . 16.
96
 , . XII (2015), , . 81-98
10. Raki, B. etiri velike slobode u pravu Evropske unije, u Zborniku radova, Pravo
Evropske unije, priredili D. Mitrovi i D. Rai, Slubeni glasnik, Beograd, 1996,
11. Stanesku, S. Armija imigranata gradi Britaniju, Politika, 3.12. 2012.
12. Stefan A. Eftimovski, Evroskepticizam u dravama Evropske unije, Nacionalni interes,
broj 3/2013, Beograd, 2013,
13. Stepanov R. Despotovi Lj. (2002) Evropska unija, nastanak, institucije, pravo, NATO,
Stilos, Novi Sad
14. Usherwood, S.Bruges as a Lodestone of British Opposition to the European Union,
Collegium, ,College of Europe, Bruges, 2004,
15. Helcl, J.Evropska politika bezbednosti i odbrane u funkciji jaanja Evropske unije, Voj-
no delo br. 4/2009,Beograd, 2009,
16. www.b92.net, 16.1.2012.
17. Blic online 17.9. 2013, u 08, 59 h
18. Blic online 30.9. 2011, u 09, 19 h

TO PREVENT THE DROWNING OF SERBIA IN THE ANTLANTIC

(Economic integrations and military neutrality as
a national interest of Serbia)
Summary: As years go by, citizens of Serbia are less interested in joining the Europe-
an Union. This fact is clearly demonstrated by the research conducted by Center for Free
Elections and Democracy (CESID) in 2012, according to which Serbias EU membership is
supported by the less than a half of its citizens. In the early 2015, more than 70 percent of
Serbian citizens said they do not want their country to join the EU. European Union is obvi-
ously not a political ideal, but an organization burdened with a number of problems, which is
proved by the latest withdrawal of Icelandic membership candidature. From a geopolitical
point of view, there is a German tendency to transform EU into a super-state, an empire,
which will be directed by several European powers. Small countries would be ignored in
every sense. The sole membership of small and underdeveloped countries is becoming risky
due to these tendencies. EU will economically support rich regions, while the poor will re-
main poor, as waste disposal sites, places for exploitation of raw materials which corres-
ponds the concept of neoliberal institutionalism. Moreover, the membership in NATO or any
other military alliance is not acceptable for Serbia. Unlike other European nations, Serbs
have never been involved in military blocks. Never in their history did Serbs have tutors and
superiors, except when they were occupied, and even then they inflicted serious problems to
the invaders, proving that they will never be conquered. Serbia never accepted ultimatums,
especially the one from 1914, so they will probably not accept the current Recognize Koso-
vo ultimatum. After the NATO aggression on Serbia in 1999, it became meaningless to seek
the membership in that military alliance. Citizens of Serbia can never forget the human toll
and destruction done by NATO. Consequences of that irrational and criminal aggression are
impossible to count. Serbia was devastated, with thousands of dead and wounded, and a
number of cases of malignant diseases has been dramatically increased as a result of use of
ammunition with depleted uranium. Hence, for Serbia, the accession in NATO would be
equal to the drowning in the Atlantic. A serious country with the intention to establish fair
relations with everyone and to avoid future wars, would not engage itself in such military
97
 , ( ...
alliance. USA and NATO have officially accepted the doctrine of preventive wars, so Serb-
scould unwillingly take part in the future wars led by United States and NATO, maybe even
against Serbias friends
Key words: Serbia, European Union, NATO, corruption, independence, neutrality, in-
tegrations, euroscepticism

98
 316.334.3(4+497.11)

: 02.06.2015
: 23.06.2015

: .
, 28
, .
-
.
, -
,
, , , ; -
.

.
- , , -
.
. , -
,
- .
: , , , ,
, ,
, ()

, .
,
, . ,
, . -

 , , ...
, ,
.
,
, 2015,
, . ,
, ,
,
.1
,
-
, .
, ,
-
.

.
, , -
. , ,
-
.2
,
.3
, (pri-
me movers) a . -
, -
,
.
XX (1924, 1929
1953),
.
,
- .4

1

. 2008,
, 99%, -
. , , ,
, ,
2014, 2015.
2
: B. Bojovic, Balkans - an Indicator of Contradictions and Anticipation of Euro - Atantic
Integrations, Paris, 18 October 2012th.
3
: Jacques Attali, LExpress blog, 14. 02. 2013.
4
,
, ,
, , , . ,
;
- , , .
100
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120

-
. ,
, . -
, - ,
CCCWS, ,
.5
, -
.
,
.
,
, .

. ,
, 2009.
,
.
.6

.
. ,
, . 7 ,
, -
( ).

.
, -
-
, .
, -
, , (-
,
), ,
.
.

5
: Yu Hongjun, China-US- Europe Relations in a Global Perspective, in: Yearbook of
Contemporary World Studies 2011/ 2012, p.111-113.
6
.
, , .
2004, 94 .
, ,
, , -
. , -
.
7
, ,
, .
101
 , , ...
,
.
, -
( - , ) -
, , - : -
,
, 25 .
.8

2014. 2015,
,
.
,
.
, -
. : -
,
. 2015, ,
, , :
,
,
. , , , , , ,
... , -
... () (, )
.9
, , ,
, . .10
.
, -
,
, , , , , .
,
- . , , - ,
,
,
.11

8
: , O. Tempelman, De Volkskrant, Amsterdam, 15.
10. 2012.
9
: , 17.03. 2015.
10
, .
11
: . , : - , , . 41,
, 20. 01. 2005.
102
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
, , , -
, , ,
.
, 1917
( - sic!), 1944 (
- sic!).
- , ,
,
, -
.12
-
,
, .
. , -
. -
,
, .
, -
, , . -
, ,
.
, , -
. 13
, ,
.
, , , -
. , -
, , -
. , -
, ,
1 . ,
. -
.14

12
.
, 1945,
.
. 1991.,
, ,
. .
13
: , .
I ), , , , 2010.
14
: . , : - , , . 41,
, 20. 01. 2005.
103
 , , ...

(IP)

, ,
. , -
, , -
, ,
,
.
, , -
- ,
- , -
. ,

(Stubb), , -
.
,
, , - .
: , ,
. -
, , -
. -
(IP)
,
, , -
, ,
.15
, , -

.
.
.
-
, . ,
. , ,
, -
. ,
. ,
:
(, , );
, ,
; , -

15
: Pierre Defraigne, March transatlantique ou identit europenne?, Madariaga Paper -
Vol. 7, No. 5 Fondation Madariaga - Collge dEurope (May 2014)
104
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
, , ,
, NS. , -
: -
(TTIP), .
! , , .
, -
. -
, .
? ,
,
, , . 16
:
, ? : TTIP, .
28 . -
, 2014, .
, , 2014, :
. ,
, , . 17 2014,
2007 - 2008.
,

. ,
, . -
.
-
, 2003,
. ,
2006, .
. TTIP, ,
, , 1995.
.18 , 2012,
. -
,
( ).19

16
: Ibid.
17
2014, 2015.
, 2. 6. 2015, 2015, ,
.
18
, New Transatlantic Market Place -1998.
19
' (Le Hyaric), (GUE),
Dracula contre les peuples, Editi-
ons de LHumanit, Saint - Denis, 2013.
105
 , , ...
?

-
. Deutsche Welle
- , ,

. -
, -
.
,
,
. - .20
,
,
TTIP.
1.
, .
2. (
, ), (, , -
), , -
, - . , -
.
, ;
3. ( , , )
. -
. -
;
4.
( , );
5. , TTIP
.
, ( 43% -
31% .21

, .
, -
, .
,
. -
TTIP , .

20
: Global 3000, Deutsche Welle, 26. 03, 2015.
21
: Pierre Defraigne, March transatlantique ou identit europenne?, Madariaga Paper -
Vol. 7, No. 5 Fondation Madariaga - Collge dEurope (May 2014)
106
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
- 28 , (13, 4%
). - , ,
, - 28 ,
,
- .
, : , , , -
, .
, TTIP.
, .
, , , -
, . - , , ,
,
, -
. -
-
,
.
,
-
,

. , -
(, , ),
, .
, ,
,
.
2014. 500 -
,
. 22

( , ).

(, , , ) -
, , -
.
, . -
TTIP- . , -
, .
XXIV GATT - ,
- .
,

22
: Benot Brville et Martine Bulard, Des tribunaux pour dtrousser les Etats, Le Monde
Diplomatique, juin 2014.
107
 , , ...
( , )
.
, -
,
, . -
,
. ,
, , -
, -
. , 2001, -
, . -

, -
- ? - -
, , . ,
, .

, TTIP -
, TTIP .
(De Gucht), , -
. -
.23 TTIP 25%
, , , -
.
(
, ).
-
.24 , , ,
, -
.
-
-
: TTIP TPP Widest
West Web ( ), ( -
, , ) .
EBC:Everyone But China ( ). -
: TTIP + TPP = EBC. 25

23
2 2,5%,
.
24
: Peter van Ham The Geopolitics of TTIP, Clingendael Policy Brief No. 23, Clingendael
Institute, October 2013.
25
: Timothy Garton Ash, Welcome to the Geopolitics of Trade, Where Dr Pangloss Meets
Machiavelli, Guardian, 10 July 2013.
108
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
TTIP, ,
, (Clingendael) ,
, , -
- .
.26
TTIP -
,
, . 27
TTIP
- . 28 -
, (Steingart),
, : ,
. - , ,
. 29
, ,
, :
'', TTIP -
- , -
- . TTIP

( ) .30
, -
, - , -

, - . -
, 1994, , ,
,
'' , '
, -
31

26
- , .

,
.
27
: . Rettman, Brzezinski: EU - US Trade Pact Can Halt Wests Decline, EUObserver,
19 April 2013.
28
Ibid.
29
: Gabor Steingart, An Argument For a TransAtlantic Free -Trade Zone, Spiegel Onli-
ne, 20 October 2006. : Kishore Mahbubani, The Great Convergence: Asia the West, and the
Logic of One World, PublicAffairs, New York, 2013.
(1948),
.
30
: Peter van Ham The Geopolitics of TTIP, Clingendael Policy Brief No. 23, Clingendael
Institute, October 2013.
31
: NATO, Chicago Summit Declaration, 20 May 2012.
109
 , , ...

, . .
(EHESS) ,
-
. I
( : VIB - very important book),32 -
.33 -
Libration .
(les classes populaires)
,
? :
. , -
, , . -

: ( -
- . ..), , -
, ,
. -
, , , .34
, , -
.
, -
. ,
, .
: -
, . -
,
LuxLeaks. , -
,
. , : -
,
, ,
( ).35
, -
,
, , -
,
.
, ' ' (, , -
, ) , , -

32
: We need permanent revolution: how Thomas Piketty became 2014s most influential thin-
ker, The Guardian, 22 December 2014;
33
: Thomas Piketty, Le Capital au XXIe sicle, ditions du Seuil, 2013,
34
: Thomas Piketty, La double peine des classes populaires, Libration, 23. 03. 2015.
35
Ibid.
110
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
. -
( ) -
, .
: ,
,
, . 36
, , : -
, . -
, . : Era-
smus (2 , 200
), -
, .
, .
, :
2012 ( -
4% ), , ,
. ,
.
-
. 37
-
,
- ,
. 38
,
,
,
, . -
-
. -
. .39
-
-
.
... -
, -
. . , -
. -

36
Ibid.
37
: Thomas Piketty, La double peine des classes populaires, Libration, 23. 03. 2015.
38

,
.
39
: . Piketty: Europe needs 'common tax policy' to beat inequality, Deutsche Welle, 07. 10.
2014.
111
 , , ...

. , -
...40

.
, - . ,
,
.
. - ,
. 41
-
, , . .
:
- , . , -
. .
, .
-
, .
. 42
,
Le Monde Diplomatique,

, 800 ,
.43
(Halimi),
(,
) .
-
, ( -
, laisser - faire)

(NSA). 44 -
. ,

, , .
(Buy
American Act), -
.45

40
Ibid.
41
Ibid.
42
Ibid.
43
: Lori M.Wallach, Le trait transatlantique, un typhon qui menace les Europens, Le Mon-
dediplomatique, novembre 2013.
44
: Serge Halimi, Un pige transatlantique, Le Monde Diplomatique mars 2014
45
Ibid.
112
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
a ,
2009. , ,
, - (Grau),
-
, , - -
.46
1988, 1992, -
: , ,
. , -
, , , -
.47

?
2015 , , -
- :
,

.48
, ,
, . ,
, ,
-
. , ,
, , , , .
2015,
, -
.
, ,
- , ( ?),
, -
, (AIIB).
, , ,
: -

, -
! 49

46
Ibid.
47
: Jean-Luc Grau, Le projet de march transatlantique , actes du colloque de la Fondation
Res Publica, Paris, septembre 2013. : Raoul Marc Jennar, Cinquante Etats ngocient en secret la
libralisation des services, Le Monde Diplomatique septembre 2014.
48
: France and Germany to join UK on Chinese-led investment bank, UObserver, 18. MAR
2015.
49
: Paul Taylor and William James, Reuters, March 22, 2015.
113
 , , ...
,
- -
, . grand strategy. , -
1650 ,
(scenario planning),


- .
, -
. ,
,
, .
, ,
, , -
,
-
. : ...
700 , (
), ,
. 50

, ,
- -
, , . -
-

.
-
(prime mover), . 51
, ,
,
, , . . , -
, , -
,
.


, -
, . , , ,

50
: Timothy Egan, How Obama Saved Capitalism and Lost the Midterms, The New York
Times , November 2, 2010.
51
1999. ,
, ,
.
114
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
, ,
, . 52

, 2015, ,
, 28
, -
, . , ,
(
, ,
). , ,
,
( ) ,
, .
, , ,
. -. ,
, ( .)
, ,
, , 1991: -
.

,
.
, , ,
, , -
. ,
, , , -
, 2015,
, .
- -
- ,
TTIP.
, . -
-
: , , , .
, - , -
- . ,
,
, . -

52

, . ,
, ,
, .
115
 , , ...
, ,
- .
( -
), , .
,
,
- - , .
(
), , ,
, ,
-
.
, . , -
. -
-
, , ,
, , , -
, , -
-
.

.
, -
,
.
- . -
( ) -
, ,
. ()
, . -
.
-
, -
. ,
, . ,
, ,
, -
, , ,
, , .
-
, -
, . ,
, ,
,

116
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
, .
, 2015, -
. -
,
( ,
).
,
,
. -
,
. -
, ( ) -
, .
, , , ,
- -
, , , , , -
.

.
- , -
, ,
. -
, , -
-
. ,
- , (
)
, -
.
60% , -
, I -
. , -
.
-
-
, .
, ,
, .
. -
, , , -
, !

117
 , , ...

:
1. AALI, Jacques, Dictionnaire du xxie sicle, Fayard, 1998; Une brve histoire de
l'avenir, Fayard, 2009; Demain, qui gouvernera le monde ?, Fayard, 2011; Histoire de la
modernit:Comment l'humanit pense son avenir, Robert Laffont, 2013; Avec nous, ap-
rs nous, avec Shimon Peres, Fayard, 2013.
2. CHERENTI, Ricard et PONCELET, Bruno, Le grand march transatlantique. Les
multinationales contre la dmocratie, Editions Bruno Leprince, 2014.
3. FAVARO, Danile, Europe - tats - Unis : les enjeux de l'accord de libre-
change, Yves Michel, Paris, 2014.
4. Le HYARIC, Patrick, Dracula contre les peuples. Qu'est-ce que le "march
transatlantique"?, Editions L'Humanit, 2013.
5. HILLARD, Pierre, La marche irrsistible du nouvel ordre mondial : L'chec de la tour
de Babel n'est pas fatal , Editions Franois - Xavier de Guibert, 2013.
6. JENNAR, Raoul Marc, Le grand march transatlantique. La menace sur les peuples
d'Europe Editions Cap Bar, 2014.
7. PETROVI PIROANAC, Zoran, Geopolitika energije(Bitna razvojna komponenta
drutva u HHI stoleu), Institut za politike studije, Centar Jugoistok, Beograd, 2010.

1. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) TTIP explained, uropean
Commission, 19/03/2015.
2. REPORT OF THE EIGHTH ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS FOR THE TRANSAT-
LANTIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT PARTNERSHIP (Brussels, 2 - 6 February
2015)
3. China - US - Europe Relations in a Global Perspective, Yearbook of Contemporary
World Studies 2011/ 2012, CCCWS, Beijing, 2013.

LES CLASSES POPULAIRES DE L'EUROPE, ALARMER LE MON-

DE ET CE QU'IL VA FAIRE LA PETITE SERBIE
Rsum: Nous sommes prs d'un accord dvastant entre UE et les Etats - Unis,
l'accord de libre change qui devrait crer un grand march transatlantique qui, depuis
quelques annes, fait peur aux citoyens europens. En mme temps, l'UE vit des secousses
sociales, mme des effervescenses (Grce) qui la font dcliner, tandis que les 28 pys mem-
bres narrivent pas trouver un chemin intrinsque du dveloppment, sans tre dirige par
les Etats - Unis.
En mme temps, le BRICS avance et annonce srieusement quelle remplacera le FMI
et la Banque Mondiale, et offrira une activit financire plus juste au monde.
Quant la Serbie, il est certain quelle ne sera pas accepte dans la Communaut au
moins avant 2020. Elle dispose, donc, de suffisemment du temps pour se prparer solidement
contre les intentions du Washingtern de lestropier irrversibilement: territorialement, milita-
irement, politiquement, gopolitiquement, pour une longue priode historique.

118
 , . XII (2015), , . 99-120
BRICS pourait jouer, dans cette recomposition de la stratgie serbe, un rle rel et de
gurisseur. Cette formation conomico- politique plantaire a une puissante perspective. Elle
pourrait aider la petite Serbie de manire significative dans sa priode de reconstruction.
La classe politique serbe, mene par le gouvernement Vui, ne devrait que retrou-
ver de laudace stratgique pour une tounure des venements Copernicienne - le changement
de paradigme stratgique.
Mots - cls: March transatlantique, classes populaires, OTAN conomique,
Washingtern, architecture et gometrie scuritaire du Sud - Est europen, guerres des nergi-
es, Partenariat transatlantique de commerce et d'investissement, altermondialistes

119
 339.9:323(497.11+497.6)

: 11.06.2015
: 29.06.2015

: ,
. ()
. , , ,
, , -
, ().
28 (506 ),
(7,1, 1,2 )
.
-
, , . -
, , ,
,
( ).
, -
. ,
, ( -
), .
,
.

( ) (
, ),
, . -
21.

goranvnikolic@gmail.com

vivanovic@kg.ac.rs

: , -
179014
.
 / , ...
- . , , -
, , -
, -
.
: , , , ,
, , .

, ,
, , -
,
(), .
, , 21.
( ),
.1
28 (506 ), (7,1 1,2 -
)
. ,
(
, ,
, , ). , -
-
.
( ) -
, , .
,
. (), -
.


( ).
-
, .

( ):
(, : GDP), -
( ), 2014. 8832
4518 , , 33,7%,

1
.
, 57,4% 36,4%
( ). 37,1% , 24,1% 2012.
(www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/332/?left_mi=None&add=None)
122
 , . XII (2015), , . 121-138
. 1,2 3,
2

3765 .4
.5
3765 2014.
2014. (4638 ; -
7,128 . ).6
.7 , 0,2% 2014,
2013. 1,9%, 1,1% 2012.8

(, , -
, , ). ,
2005.
. -

-
.
2015. : : 64,3%, : 32,1%,
: 3,5%.9 -
22. 2013. : : 63,8%, : 32,6%, -
: 3,5%.10
( )
, .11
33% 34% -
12, ,

2
BDP BIH je iznosio 26243 miliona KM, raunajui rast BDP od 0,7% i prosenu deflaciju od 0,9% u
2014. http://www.cbbh.ba/files/mep/2015/mep_feb_2015_bs.pdf , http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/category/79/
3
2013. 1327 ,
. , 2372
, 93 .
http://www.bhas.ba/obavjestenja/Preliminarni_rezultati_bos.pdf
4

, -
, .
5
2013. 8761 , 33,3% 2013. 2012.
8585 , 33,4% ( 25734 ).
2011. 8669 2011 4432
(http://www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/godisnjak/2012/po_poglavljima/08pot_2012.pdf)
33,8% . 2010. 8318 2010 (33,6% ).
2,0%-2,3% ( 70 -
). http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/category/79/
6
http://www.mfin.gov.rs/pages/article.php?id=7161
7
2011. 31 470 4335 , 2012. 29 933 41334
. http://mfp.gov.rs/pages/article.php?id=7161
8
http://www.irbrs.org/azuro3/azuro/uploads/Ekonomski_monitor_15.pdf
9
www.avaz.ba/clanak/176247/prihodi-od-indirektnih-poreza-u-prva-cetiri-mjeseca-milijardu-i-964-miliona-km
10
www.uino.gov.ba/b/Poslovne_usluge/Jedinstveni_racun.html
11
,
( 32,5%).
12
www.bhas.ba/tematskibilteni/lfs_bh.pdf str: 25-26.
123
 / , ...
.13 2013.
( 1,3 . , 3,7 . .)
, , , -
(. 7 . ,
.
, , -
, , -
, . 2014.
4,5 (8927 14409 ).14
2014. ,
0,7% ( 2014.
5,9%, 2013. 6,5%, 2012. 4,5%15). -
2014. 1,7%. 2013. -
3,7%, 4,1% 2012. 2008.
2012. , 40%.
, 15 .
-
. , -
.
2,3%,
1,3% 2015
.16 2010. 8%
2015, 2012.
2013, , -
2003.
(,
) 2014. 16,7% ( 2002, 15%
2012. 15,5%), 9,8%
( 16,5% 2002.). ,
,

13
, ,
. 2010 1 064 000
( 15 164 000, -
, -
). 1 155 000 2007, 15 186 000,
, .
2011 1 052 000, 2012 1021 000 , 15
139 000 , 1998.
(www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/anketa_o_radnoj_snazi/AnketaORadnojSnazi_5.pdf).
( )
,
2002, 2013.
(http://www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/anketa_o_radnoj_snazi/AnketaORadnojSnazi1.pdf).
14
www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/1517/?left_mi=None&add=None
15
www.rzs.rs.ba/front/category/79/
16
http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/1541/
124
 , . XII (2015), , . 121-138
. , -
(19% 2011).17 4,5% (
5,6% 12 ).
70% , , -
( 2002. 63% ). . -
, , -
, , -
, .18
2015. 427 ,
2014. 2,7%. , -
378 ( 12% ). 422
2014. 216 .
25,7% 2014,
146 .19 -
: 19,2%
2015.20
,
74,3 2013, - (49,8
2006. 58,2 2007), 2008-2012.21
170 2014, -
4,7%.
(85 ). 2015. 246 643.
. . 2013.
239 479 , 161 .
2012. 232 .22
1742 2015,
192 .23
2014. 395 ,
187 , 426 .24
392 (27,5%), 446
( 2015).25
(CPI- ) 2015.
1,1%, -0,9%.26
2014. 243
, 1,2%. 2008. 259

17
http://www.makroekonomija.org/wp-content/uploads/bdp-bih-2011.png
18
www.makroekonomija.org/republika-srpska/tabela-bdp-republike-srpske-u-tekucim-cenama-2001-2012/
19
http://www.irbrs.net/statistika/Indikatori.aspx?tab=2&lang=cir
20
http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/public/PublicationView.aspx?pKey=41&pLevel=1&pubType=2&pubKey=2992
21
http://www.makroekonomija.org/wp-content/uploads/rs-2013-zapos-zarade-fond-zarada.png
22
Statistiki bilten Fonda PIO RS, mart 2015.
23
http://pio.rs/images/dokumenta/statistike/2015/MESECNI%20BILTEN%20-%20FEBRUAR%202015-LAT.pdf
24
http://www.fzs.ba/Bilten0415.pdf
25
http://www.fzs.ba/Bilten0415.pdf
26
http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/1541/
125
 / , ...
, 3% 236 2004, -
. ,
20 2008. 2012,
, 27 ,
,
( 2012. 238 -
).
21. 2004. 2007.
,
, ,
, . -
-
. , 2004. 2007.
- "" (465,6 )
" " (1,26 ). ,
"" ""
( ), -
.
-
28, ("Ar-
celor Mittal" ), ("EFT Group" )
( ).29
2005-2012. 711 -
, .

21. -
, 2008, ,
, , .
2001-14, , 14,6%, 9,5%,
5,9, 3,3 13 (
2000-14. 14,5% , 11%,
6,6, 4,3 14 ).30

27
87 , 1341 ,
6,1% (makroekonomija.org/zaposlenost-nezaposlenost-zarade-fond-zarada/tabela-rzs-a-o-broju-
zaposlenih-u-pravnim-licima-od-2001-do-2012-po-sektorima-i-oblastima). , -
, 270
.
28
: , ,
. 31%
. , , -
, .
29
http://www.swot.ba/pdf/monitor11/monitor11.pdf
30
0,5% 2015. 15 21.
2,5% (2000-14. 2,7%).
126
 , . XII (2015), , . 121-138
2015. 4,2% 6,2%,
.31
2001. . -
2001-14. 12,3%, 8,6%.
4,5 13 ,
2,9 . -
, 35% 2001, 54,5% 2014.
.
2015. ( -
2015. 7,4%, 8,3%), -
(59,6%).32
, 1377 2014, -
3,5%, 3906 , 8,5%
2013. 54,5% (2013.
57,1%, 2009. 46,9%).33 :
, , , ,
, , , -
, ,
, , , ,
, , , , -
, , -
, , .
2013. 0,009%. ,
-
(0,018%)
. , 2013.
.
(2014)
, -
-
.
, 16
, 30
. ,
, -
.
2012. 2013,
.
1309 2011. 1214 2012,

31
http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/public/PublicationView.aspx?pKey=41&pLevel=1&pubType=2&pu
bKey=2950
32
http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/1538/
33
www2.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/saopstenja/spoljna_trgovina/mesecna_saopstenja/2014/evri/Spoljna_de
c_2014_EUR.pdfhttp://www2.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/spoljna_trgovina/Bilten_SpoljneTrgovine
_br_8.pdf
127
 / , ...
1323 2013. 193 147
2012. 124 2013, 85 24
88 .
2011 2013. -
, 10 34
, 97 ,
168 , 100
402 . 556 -
.
1% -
: ,
. 42
0,1%, ,
.
, -
50% . -
, -
.
, 2014. -
1378, 2529 .
1,2 , 1148 ,
2108 . -
2014. (1560, 2171 ). ,
, ,
( 3% :
0,1%).
-
(
).
2000.
, -
.
2000-14. 11,1%, 6,9%,
(
4,3 , 2,5 14 ).
, , 2000.
2008. (
: 19,3%, : 13,5%).34

34
,
2008. , ,
, 2009. -
, 2010 .
,
, .
128
 , . XII (2015), , . 121-138
, ,
2014. 8,9% ( 10,1% 2011), 2,6% ( 3,4% 2011).35
2015. : 8,4%,
2,5%.36
: 2014. -
3,6% (4,5% 2012). 2007. 2008.
(6,7% 7,5% , 432, 560 -
).37
-
. 1,3% 2014, 2012, 2007. 2008.
(1,1% 1,2% , 144 191 . ).38

1:
2007-2015. ( . )
: rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/spolna_trgovina/Bilten_spolne_trgovine_br_5.pdf
http://www2.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/spolna_trgovina/Bilten_SpolneTrgovine_br_8.pdf
, 2015.
http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/1552/

, 2008,
. 1. -
2007-2015.
2008 ,
.

35
webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/01/08/87/st16072013.pdf
36
http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/public/PublicationView.aspx?pKey=41&pLevel=1&pubType=2&pu
bKey=2950
37
, 2015. - -
(EUR). 28. I 2015. /No. 16/15.
38

(webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/01/08/87/st16072013.pdf) i podataka RZS RS
(rzs.rs.ba/front/article/726/).
129
 / , ...
, , , -
.
, 2008,
,
.
2007. 18,2% ,
25,2% . 2010.
(17,6%) , 21% . -
2012. 15,6% , 17,2%
.39 ,
2014. : 14,9% -
, 16% . 2015.
13,5%, 17,4% (-
2015).
-
. . 2012. 7,3%, 1214
( 2%)40, : 22,2%
( 190 ). 2012.
, 2014, ,
205 .

. , ,
, . 2012 -
245 , (88 ).41
2015, ,
6,3%, 7,4%. -
, .42 -

2013. ( ),
, - -,
( 11% -
2015).
- 2015. (
6,9%, 2,3%),
, 6,9% (
, ).
37,4% ( 78 ), 12% ( 118
), -

39
webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/01/08/87/st16072013.pdfhttp://www2.rzs.rs.ba/static/
uploads/saopstenja/spoljna_trgovina/mesecna_saopstenja/2013/SpoljnaTrgovina_Jun_2013_KM.pdf
40
www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/spoljna_trgovina/Bilten_SpoljneTrgovine_br_6.pdf
41
www.makroekonomija.org/0-miroslav-zdravkovic/ekonomska-kretanja-u-republici-srpskoj/
42
http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/1554/
130
 , . XII (2015), , . 121-138
. , 2014. 4,1% 5,3%.44 -
43

-
66%, 2013. 50,6%. 53% 2014. (
193 , 364,6 -
).45
,
, ,
.
, . -
: . ,
. , ,

, -
.
2014. 40,4 ,
40,2 . 74,7 ,
78 , 115,1 ,
118,1 . 2,7%
20 .
2014. 955 20,1%,
801 4,4%.
5,4% (1852 ), 9,7% (1629 ).
, , -
. , -

.

.
2014. 204,6 .
( 405 )
( 50,7%).
2014. 405,2 .
( 903 )
- (40,8%).
3% ,
. 2012 190

43
http://www.makroekonomija.org/robna-razmena/robna-razmena-federacije-bih-rekordna-vrednost-
uvoza-iz-srbije-u-aprilu/
44
http://www.fzs.ba/saopcenja/2014/16.1.12.pdf
45
http://www.fzs.ba/SG2014.pdf
http://www.fzs.ba/Bilten0215.pdf
131
 / , ...
49,7% . 2012. -
394 46,8% . 2009.
, -
. , 54,8%
, 55,6% .

-
.
. ,
(
).

,
-
. - (2013) . ,
2012, ,
. 149 -
81. 78. (188 ),
112. ( 35.).
29. , 379 80. ,
, .
4.659 41. , , , ,
( 35 9,6 ).
74. , 40,6 .
45. 266 48. 236 -
. 2012. 59. 4 ,
( 281
17.
, ). 18,6
45, , ( 35.
66 , 31. 95 ).
120,6 100. ,
, , 107.
79 ( 58. 578 -
). 58. , 26,8
, 88. 4,3 , , -
. 2011. 1,4 -
. 236 -
141 , 87
, 265 139.
( 106. 937
). 3,3
132
 , . XII (2015), , . 121-138
31. . 82. 483 ,
, . , -
, .
1,1 , 99. ,
, 71.
. 924 ; 130 117.
. 60 ; 97, 98.
99. . 25,4 , 22,7,
20, 7 . 12 107. -
110. 11,6 . 20 ; 9,7
119. , , -
, . 33.
382 . 37.
42. 328 306 . 165
55 , ,
.46

(2013)
1996-2010. -
.
-
-
-
. -
-
lag ,
-
.47 -
,

46
http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miroslav-zdravkovic/rang-republike-srpske-i-srbije-u-svetskoj-
poljoprivredi-neki-indikatori/
47
. 2006 6,5 12,5 .
6,08% , 1.16 -
10%, 116 , 1.04
. 2005 6.2 , -
2006 332 ,
(116 2006) 35% . 2005
11 , 2006 1.5
, 70%
.
2005 2006. 2005
6.2 11 . 2005.
5.6% , 957 , 96
, 862 . 2006
14.3% 65.4% .
133
 / , ...

. , ,
-

, .48

10%
.
(2013)
.
2008. -

30%. . -

-
. ,
30% ,
50% (44% 1999).
,
.
,
self-sufficient
.49

, -
, , -
, ,
. ,

48
1000 .
,
.
.
, $14 , ,
, 1996-2010. 12.7 ,
2009- . -
,
. 2/3 -
, , -
. 2/3
, -
. , -
.
49
, 2013. .
., 2013. http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-sasa-milojevic/impakt-
medunarodne-pomoci-na-ekonomske-performance-rs-i-fbih/
134
 , . XII (2015), , . 121-138
, ,
,
.

, ( ). -
,
.

, ,
. , -
( ),
. ,
, , -
, (
). ,
( ,
, , ).
(1. 2013), ,
,
, (
, 90%, ). -
, , , , -
, -
. .50
, -
. ,
, ( -
), -
. ,
.
21. ,
, , , -
,
- . . , -
,
, ,

.
,
-
, -
,

50
, ( -
), , , .
135
 / , ...
. , , -
. -
- - (2010),
21. , ,
.51 -
-
, , , .

. ,

21. .52
- (2012)
, -
. -
, 2006-2010,
.
-
, , . ,
, -
( ), .
, -
( ) -
( , -
, ), -
, .
21. -
, ,
, .

:
1. Milojevi S, Zdravkovi M, 2012, Trgovinski potencijal Srbije koristei Gravitacioni
model. Priloeno na savetovanju Naunog drutva ekonomista Srbije 5.5.2012.
http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miroslav-zdravkovic/trgovinski-potencijal-srbije-
koristeci-gravitacioni-model/
2. Milojevi, Saa, 2013. Impakt meunarodne pomoi na ekonomske performance RS i
FBiH. Makroekonomija.org, Februar 2013. http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-sasa-
milojevic/impakt-medunarodne-pomoci-na-ekonomske-performance-rs-i-fbih/
3. Postkrizni model privrednog rasta i razvoja Srbije 2011-2020; Autorski tim okupljen
oko asopisa Makroekonomski tendovi i analize, Ekonomski institut u Beogradu i

51
,
.
52

, ,
.
136
 , . XII (2015), , . 121-138
Kvartalni monitor ekonomskih trendova i politika; Fond za razvoj ekonomske nauke,
Ekonomskog fakulteta Univerziteta u Beogradu, decembar 2010.
4. Republiki zavod za statistiku Republike Srpske, 2015. STATISTIKA SPOLjNE TR-
GOVINE - MJESENO SAOPTENjE (EUR). 28. I 2015. Broj/No. 16/15.
5. RZSRS, April 2015, Saoptenje za medije, 4/15. . http://www.rzs.rs.ba/?graph_id=2
6. Statistiki bilten Fonda PIO RS, mart 2015.
7. www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/332/?left_mi=None&add=None
8. http://www.cbbh.ba/files/mep/2015/mep_feb_2015_bs.pdf
9. http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/category/79/
10. http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/category/79/
11. http://www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/godisnjak/2012/po_poglavljima/08pot_2012.pdf
12. http://www.irbrs.org/azuro3/azuro/uploads/Ekonomski_monitor_15.pdf
13. http://mfp.gov.rs/pages/article.php?id=7161
14. http://www.avaz.ba/clanak/176247/prihodi-od-indirektnih-poreza-u-prva-cetiri-mjeseca-
milijardu-i-964-miliona-km
15. http://www.uino.gov.ba/b/Poslovne_usluge/Jedinstveni_racun.html
16. http://www.bhas.ba/tematskibilteni/lfs_bh.pdf str: 25-26.
17. www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/anketa_o_radnoj_snazi/AnketaORadnojSnazi_5.pdf
18. http://www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/anketa_o_radnoj_snazi/AnketaORadnojSnazi1.pdf
19. http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/1517/?left_mi=None&add=None
20. http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/category/79/
21. http://www.makroekonomija.org/wp-content/uploads/bdp-bih-2011.png
22. www.makroekonomija.org/republika-srpska/tabela-bdp-republike-srpske-u-tekucim-
cenama-2001-2012/
23. http://www.irbrs.net/statistika/Indikatori.aspx?tab=2&lang=cir
24. http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/01/71/71/SB-593-
bilten_ARS_2014.pdf
25. http://www.makroekonomija.org/wp-content/uploads/rs-2013-zapos-zarade-fond-
zarada.png
26. http://pio.rs/images/dokumenta/statistike/2015/MESECNI%20BILTEN%20-
%20FEBRUAR%202015-LAT.pdf
27. http://www.fzs.ba/Bilten0415.pdf
28. http://www.fzs.ba/Bilten0415.pdf
29. makroekonomija.org/zaposlenost-nezaposlenost-zarade-fond-zarada/tabela-rzs-a-o-
broju-zaposlenih-u-pravnim-licima-od-2001-do-2012-po-sektorima-i-oblastima
30. http://www.swot.ba/pdf/monitor11/monitor11.pdf
31. http://www.nbs.rs/internet/cirilica/80/platni_bilans.html
32. http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/public/PublicationView.aspx?pKey=41&pLevel=1&p
ubType=2&pubKey=2950
33. webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/01/08/87/st16072013.pdf
34. http://webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/public/PublicationView.aspx?pKey=41&pLevel=1&p
ubType=2&pubKey=2950
35. webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/01/08/87/st16072013.pdf
36. www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/726/
37. webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/repository/documents/00/01/08/87/st16072013.pdfhttp://ww
w2.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/saopstenja/spoljna_trgovina/mesecna_saopstenja/2013/Spolj
naTrgovina_Jun_2013_KM.pdf
38. www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/spoljna_trgovina/Bilten_SpoljneTrgovine_br_6.pdf
39. www.makroekonomija.org/0-miroslav-zdravkovic/ekonomska-kretanja-u-republici-
srpskoj/
137
 / , ...
40. http://www2.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/saopstenja/spoljna_trgovina/mesecna_saopstenja/2
014/evri/Spoljna_dec_2014_EUR.pdfhttp://www2.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/bilteni/spoljn
a_trgovina/Bilten_SpoljneTrgovine_br_8.pdf
41. http://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/1520/
42. http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miroslav-zdravkovic/republika-srpska-u-svetskom-
robnom-izvozu/
43. http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miroslav-zdravkovic/rang-republike-srpske-i-srbije-
u-svetskoj-poljoprivredi-neki-indikatori/
44. http://www.mfin.gov.rs/UserFiles/File/tabele/2015%20maj/Tekuca%20makroekonomsk
a%20kretanja.pdf

Regional cooperation in the Balkans under the influence of Euroatlan-

tism and Eurasianism: Paradoxical effect of 'Euro-Atlantic' CEFTA
project on strengthening the ties between Serbia and the RS
Summary: The process of European integration, which includes the CEFTA, mitiga-
tes the disintegration of the Serbian national corpus. With active support of western interna-
tional community, which, among other things, sees it as a way for the pacification of the
region, economic connections in the area are legalized and legitimized, especially between
Serbia and Republika Srpska (that is B&H). Comparing data on population of EU28 (506
million), Serbia and RS (7.1 and 1.2 million people) we come to the conclusion that there is a
very high intensity of trade between Serbia and RS.
With some caution it can be concluded that the economic cooperation among the co-
untries of the Western Balkans, with CEFTA as the backbone structure, is a strategic interest
of Serbia and the RS. In addition to economic cooperation, there is also the intensification of
cultural ties, primarily thanks to a common language and similar cultural matrix, which is a
legacy of the former Yugoslavia (although it existed prior to its formation).
CEFTA is in fact an example of how the interests of Serbia, RS and other countries in
the region and the international community can coincide. It is clear that CEFTA is primarily
a political project of the EU (and part of the Euro-Atlantic geopolitical orientation), with the
aim of pacifying the region and its preparation for EU membership. In addition, CEFTA is in
line with the national interests of Serbia and the RS to intensify economic links.
In the coming years, due to European integration and CEFTA, Serbia and Republika
Srpska will deepen the institutional economic (and to a lesser extent, political) ties that
existed in the former Yugoslavia (uniform standards and customs, some elements of fiscal
policy and later the common currency). The likely entry of these republics into the EU du-
ring the third decade of the 21st century will further strengthen economic and political ties
between Serbia and RS. In addition, the entry of B&H into the EU would, among other
things, democratize and practically cement entity veto power, which would give the RS
ability to influence policy of B&H, inter alia, in the area of relations with Serbs in the region.
Key words: Euro-Atlantic Integration, CEFTA, Serbia, the Republika Srpska, customs
union, common currency, the Serbs

138
 327(497.11):327(497)

: 23.05.2015
: 01.05.2015

: .
,
. ,
, ,
,
, - , ,
, , -
.
.

,
, .
: ; ; ; ;
;

,
, .
, -
.1
, .
, -
: -
,

draganp@diplomacy.bg.ac.rs drdraganpetrovic83@gmail.com www.petrovicdragan.com

1
, , ,
, , 2010.
 , , ...
,
, ,
,
.
. ,
, ,
, .2
.
. ,
, ,
, ,

. -
, , -
, ,
. -
, .
2008. .
, ,
.

, ,
. -
, -
-
,
,
.3
, -
20-30 %.
.

, -
, -
( XVII ), , -
. ,

( ),
. ,
( 2000. )

2
, 2013-2015, -
, . 26, , 2015, . 219-236.
3
, , ,
, , 2015.
140
 , . XII (2015), , . 139-153

.4
2010.
, .5 ,
2013, 2014,
, 1
2, -
, ( -
) . -
, ,
, -
.
, ,
, ,
-
.
,
,
, -
, ,
, ,
,
.
,
-
, -
.6 -
,

. -

.
-
:
-

4
, ,
, ,
, , , , 2013, . 119-132.
5
, , ,
, , 2009; , 2010,
, , 2010; ,
2010-2012, , ,
2012. 1146, - 2012. . 28-38;
6
,
, , , , , 2012; ,
, , , 2014.
141
 , , ...
;
; ,
;
,

; -
;
, ,
,
, , -
( ,
) .
, -
-
. , -
, -
, 2,


-
( )
,
, .
, -
. -
2014. -
, -
-
. -

, ,
. ,
-
, ,
2. , -
, .
, -
, -
, .
,
, ,
.
, .
,
.
142
 , . XII (2015), , . 139-153
, ,
, ,
, . -
, , -
, .
, ,
.
, -
, , ,
, ,
,
.
, ,
, , -
.


, ,
2015,
7.
, 10
.8
, -
27-29
. -
-
. ,
.
-
200 .9

.
2015. -
,

7
2015, ,
E.On, Shell OMV
.
, .
(Nord Stream) 1224 . -
: 51%, Wintershall Holding GmbH E.On Ruhrgas AG 15,5%, -
NV Nederlandse Gasunie GDF Suez 9%.
, 10 -
.
8
http://expert.ru/2015/01/15/mezhdu-turtsiej-i-ukrainoj/
9
http://fakti.org/globotpor/quo-vadis-orbi/gazprom-eon-shell-i-omv-grade-nord-stream-2-ankara-
krajem-juna-stavlja-potpis-na-turski
143
 , , ...
, , -
, .10
, -
, 2,
, , ,
,
.
,
, .

, , -
-
.11 19.
. ,
.

, ,

.

, -
2, ,
, () -
.
,
, , -

10
http://fakti.org/serbian-point/posrbljene-vesti/dacic-eu-ne-bi-imala-nista-protiv-juznog-toka-da-je-
istocnim-prstenom-zaobisao-srbiju ,
, ,
, .


, . 2019.

, , -
.
,
.
, -
. , , -
, , ,
, .

, ,
.
,
, .
11
http://expert.ru/2015/06/17/potok-nachnetsya-v-iyule/
144
 , . XII (2015), , . 139-153

,
,
. -
, ,
.
, ,

,
2, , ,
.
-
. . -
, ,
,
, .
, -
, -
-
. , -
(), ,
- ( )
. , -
, -,
, , .
-
, ,
,


.12
,
, -
, -
.
,
, -
, -
. ,
.
.

12
- , ,
: , , , , , -
, 2012. . 67-96.
145
 , , ...
, ,
, -
- .
13, 14, .
-
, ,
.

-
.

, -
, ,
, -
, -
. , -
-
. -
,
.
,
( , , ...) ,
,
. , -
, -
, ,
, -
, -
.
,
, , , , ,
,
, .
, , -
(
, , .),
.
-, - -
,

13
, - , - 1800-
2010, , , 2011.
14
- Petrovi Dragan, La Serbia e I suoi rapporti nella regi-
one il quadro storico e le relazioni con lItalia, Italia e Serbia, Passato, presente e futuro di
unamicizia, Quaderni Di Geopolitica, Roma, supplemento a Geopolitica, vol 11, anno 2013. pp. 133-
143.
146
 , . XII (2015), , . 139-153
. ,
, , -
, ,
. ,
,
, ,
,
.
( ,
), .
,
, -
. -
, -
.
, ,

.
. -
, -
, . -
, -
,
( , , ).
-
,
. ()
,
( , , -
),
( -
, , ). ,
,
, -
, -
.

,
, ,
, -
.
(, , -
), 650 000 ,
450 000 , ,
, , .
147
 , , ...
, -

. 2000
500 ,
,
.
-
,
, .
- ,
, . -
, -
, ,
- , -
, -
, -
, .
, , ,
,
. , -
, -
. , ,
.
, , ,
-
.
,
15, ,
,
( ). ,
-
. . -
.
, ,
.
-
,
.
,
( ,
,

15
, , -
, Studii si cercetari, Actele Simpozionului, Banat-istorie si multickulturalitate, Zrenjanin-
Resita, 2015, p. 447-466.
148
 , . XII (2015), , . 139-153
, , -
). -
-
,
,
( ,
.),
, , -
.
, -
2000-.
. -
,
,
.
1990.
.16 1990-2013.
60 %,
31 % 15 %,
1,03 0,3 . 17
, ,
,
, -
,
.18


. ,
, , -
, -
, ,
.
,
, ,

16
, , 1 2, ,
, 2006.
17
, , , ,
2014. . 44-45
18
, ,
, -
, , 2013; , , -
, , 2013; , ,
, , 2014. , ,
, , 2013; , ,
,
, , 2014.
149
 , , ...
. -
, , -
, ,
-
.
-
:
- ,
(, ) -
()
, .
- .
-
. -
()
.
- ,
,
.
. , -
, -
, ,
. ,
,
( , , .)
.
, -
, -
. ,
-
. ,
. , -
, ,
-
, -
, 2008. .
- , ,
( , 17
% ). -

.
- -
. -
( ), ,
,
. ,

.

150
 , . XII (2015), , . 139-153
- , ,
-
.
- ,
, -
, , -
.

, -
. -
.
- ,
( -
), -
, -
. -

.
- ,
,
, -
.
- , -
-
, -
. , -
,
,
.

, ,

. , -
, ,
, -
,
. ,
, ,

,
,
. -
,
.
, , -
, , . , -
,
151
 , , ...
.
-
, -
, -

:
1. Despotovi Ljubia, Jevtovi Zoran, Geopolitika i mediji, Kultura polisa, Novi Sad,
2010.
2. Despotovi Ljubia, Geopolitika identiteta, Baka Palanka, Novi Sad, 2011.
3. Duani Jovan, Dolarska alhemija i prokaena drava, Akademija ekonomskih nauka,
Beograd, 2013;
4. Kovaevi Mlaan, Uzroci savremene ekonomske krize, Akademija ekonomskih nauka,
Beograd, 2013;
5. Komazec Slobodan, Razaranje nacionalne ekonomije i drave, naputanje neoliberal-
nog modela krize, Biblioteka nauno istraivakih radova Savremena kriza i izazovi
budunosti, Beograd, 2013;
6. Komazec Slobodan, Petrovi Dragan, Globalna monetarna kriza i novi geopolitiki i
finansijski odnosi u svetu, Institut za meunaordnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 2014.
7. Petrovi Dragan, Istorija industrije Beograda, knjige 1 i 2, Srpsko geografsko drutvo,
Beograd, 2006.
8. Petrovi Dragan, Ka multipolarnom svetskom poretku, Pei i sinovi, Centar za razvoj
meunarodne saradnje, Beograd, 2010.
9. Petrovi Dragan, Joki Ana, Energetska politika Rusije, Institut za meunarodnu politi-
ku i privredu, Beograd, 2015.
10. Petrovi Dragan, Nikoli Goran, Geopolitika savremene Ukrajine, Institut za meuna-
rodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 2009;
11. Petrovi Dragan, Predsedniki izbori u Ukrajini 2010, Institut za meunarodnu politiku
i privredu, Beograd, 2010;
12. Petrovi Dragan, Francusko-srpski odnosi 1800-2010, Institut za meunarodnu politiku
i privredu, Beograd, 2011.
13. Petrovi Dragan, ukanovi Dragan, Stubovi spoljne politike Srbije: EU, Rusija, SAD,
Kina, Institut za meunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 2012.
14. Petrovi Dragan, Geopolitika Balkana, Institut za meunarodnu politiku i privredu,
Beograd, 2014.
15. Petrovi Dragan, Joki Ana, Energetska politika Rusije, Institut za meunarodnu politi-
ku i privredu, Beograd, 2015.
16. Popovi Nenad, Politika neutralnost i ekonomija, Fond Slobodan Jovanovi, Beograd,
2013.
17. Prorokovi Duan, Geopolitika Srbije, Slubeni glasnik, Geopolitika, Beograd, 2012;

,

1. Kicoev Saa, Petrovi Dragan, Geopolitiki aspekt novovekovnih srpsko-rumunskih
odnosa, u Studii si cercetari, Actele Simpozionului, Banat-istorie si multickulturalitate,
Zrenjanin-Resita, 2015, p. 447-466.
152
 , . XII (2015), , . 139-153
2. Petrovi Dragan, Ukrajina u vreme predsednikog mandata Viktora Janukovia 2010-
2012, Meunarodna politika, Beograd, 2012. broj 1146, april-jun 2012. str. 28-38;
3. ,
, , ,
, ,
, , 2013, . 119-132.
4. Petrovi Dragan, La Serbia e I suoi rapporti nella regione il quadro storico e le relazio-
ni con lItalia, Italia e Serbia, Passato, presente e futuro di unamicizia, Quaderni Di
Geopolitica, Roma, supplemento a Geopolitica, vol 11, anno 2013. pp. 133-143.
5. Petrovi, Dragan Ukrajinska kriza 2013-2015, Kultura polisa, br. 26, Beograd, 2015,
str. 219-236.

SERBIAN GEOPOLITICS AT BALKANS, IN THE PERIOD OF

TRANSITION OF WORLD ORDER TOWARD MULTIPOLARISM
Summary: In this paper the position of Serbian factor in the Balkans today is
analyzed. The world order is in the process of transition from monopolar to multipolar,
which takes its outlines also in the Balkans and its surroundings. Ukrainian crisis, the
question of building some form of South Stream, Syriza in Greece and the Orbans policy in
Hungary, together with the growth of euroscepticism in most of the European countries, with
unresolved issues of Kosovo and Metohija, friction in the Bosnian- Muslim Federation, the
Republic Srpska, the crisis in Macedonia, etc., lead also Serbian factor in a very uncertain
situation, crucified between influence and interests of the great powers. Solutions that would
be desirable for the Serbian state and national interests in the existing circumstances are
considered. It is noted the chance that in the international order that takes more the characte-
ristic of multipolarism Serbian factor can easier accomplish its interests, than it was possible
in the past two and a half decades of US dominance, which have proved not inclined to
Serbs.
Key words: Balkans; Serbian geopolitics; great powers; Ukrainian crisis; South Stre-
am

153
 . 316.334.3(497.11):327

: 09.06.2015
: 26.06.2015

: -
, .
,
. , , -
, ( , -
, ).
,
. 20.
, ,
- , ,
-
.
: , , , , , , -
, , ,

:

15
,
() .
, -
.
, -
, .

, .

srdjanp9@gmail.com
 . , :
,
. , -
, ,
. ,
, -
. ,
,
, , ,
, .

,
, ,
. -

, -
.

,
() -
(, 2004: 25). ,
, , -
.
, , ,
,
-
. , ,
, -
,

, . ,
, : -
,
,
,
. , -
, , ,
.
, , -
?
/ , -
-
/ .

.

156
 , . XII (2015), , . 155-165
-
, . (Samuel Huntington) -

... -
, , , , , , -
- (, 2000: 18). -
-
/.
.
. (Carl Schmitt) -
-
.
,
, , -
.
, .
,
,
(Schmitt, 1991:1944).
. .
.
, ,
( ) .
, -

.
-
. , -
, . . ,
-
. -
-
.
, ,
.
, ,
. -
, , , -
. , -
, , . ,
,
.
, , ,
? -
, . .
157
 . , :

() :


. ,
,
.
. (-
, , , .),
.
, -
. -
,
(, 2002).
, . , -
,
.
, -
, , , , ,
, (, 2002:26). -
( ).
-
(17. 19. ).
20.
.

, -
, .
. , -
, -
, , . , ,
,
.
(Christopher Lasch).
, , -
, . -
, , ,
. ,
-, ,
(, 1996: 37-39).
()
(, , )
(, ) , -
.
158
 , . XII (2015), , . 155-165
, -
() .
-
. -
, , , . ,
, .
. . -

,
, . , (Halford Mac-
kinder). 20. -
,
, . (Ve-
nier, 2004: 330-334). -
, ,
. .
(, , ,)
-
. -
. -
-
, , -
().
, -
, -
()
(, ) (, 2004:100124).
.
, -
, ,
. ,
, -
, , ,
. -

( -
), , , .
- .
-
, , , , , -
(, 2004:26).
. ,
2010. , , -
-
. ,
159
 . , :

, ... (, 2010). -
. , ,
, (, , .), -
(, 2010). -
, ,
21.

, - -
(, 2010). -
2012.
.
, -
, , () . -
-
. -
, , , -
, . , , .
.
.
. -

(, 2014, 915).

.
, 20. ,
,
,
.
. ,
. ,

, . .
, ,

. , ,
-
,
.

. -
160
 , . XII (2015), , . 155-165
, () ,
. ,
, . : 1) -
, 2)
.


, . ( ).
-
.
, -
, . ,
.
,
. -
(, , .) ,
.
.
-
, .
.
, -
. -
,
.
19. , ,
,
. -
(, ).

. .

.
. 40000
, -
.
1919. 20. -
. -
, . (Mac-
kinder, 1996: 83104), , ,
. , -
-
.

161
 . , :
-
, .

() -
() -
.
, , ,
, , , .
, , .
,
, ,
. ,
.

, . ,
-
, .
. -
, -
.
, 19. 20. , , -
,
. -
.
, -
-
,
. ,
-
-
,
-
. , -
, .
, 20. -
. -
.
, , ,

1918. . , -

.
(. Teufels Grtel) , .

() .
162
 , . XII (2015), , . 155-165
, ,
-
.

(, , -
) . -
(, 1981; , 2012). ,
X
,
, , -
. (Robert
Seton-Watson): .
,
. , -
, (, 2012:47).

.

. . , -

,

.
,
, . ,
.

, . , -
.
-
-
,
, .
, . ,
, ,

(, 2012).
- , ,
. , -
. , -
-
-
. ,
(),

163
 . , :
-
.
, ,
.
, ,
, .
-
, ,

. 2003. -
(. New Europe) (Rumsfeld, 2011: 444).
, -

, , , , , -
.
-
,
.
*
, 20. -
-
-. , -
, . -
, -
.
-
. , -
, -
. -
, -
(, 2012).
, /
( )
.
.
, ,
, .
,
, ,
,
, -
, , ? -
-
?
164
 , . XII (2015), , . 155-165

:
1. Venier, Pascal (2004): The Geographical Pivot of History and Early 20th Century Geo-
political Culture, Geographical Journal, vol. 170, no 4, pp. 330-336.
2. , (2010):
,
.:
http://agul.etnosmi.ru/one_stat.php?id=7030
3. Dugin, Aleksandar (2004), Osnovi geopolitike I, Ekopres, Zrenjanin.
4. Zinovjev, Aleksandar (2002): Zapad, Na dom, Beograd.
5. Kalabi, Radovan (2012): Ravnogorski venac Subjel, Beograd, autorsko izdanje.
6. La, Kristofer (1996): Pobuna elita, Svetovi, Novi Sad.
7. Lompar, Milo (2012): Duh samoporicanja, tree izdanje, Orpheus, Beograd.
8. Mackinder, Halford (1996): Democratic Ideals and Reality: A Study in the Politics of
Reconstruction, Washington, DC: National Defence University Press, 1996.
http://mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/139619/ipublicationdocument_singledocu
ment/eda9e313-7e1b-41f3-a9d7-44b84da4ae5f/en/1942_Democratic_Ideals_Reality.pdf
9. Markov, Sergej (2010): izlaganje politikologa na 11. kongresu partije Jedinstvene Rusije,
http://edinros.ru/er/text.shtml?10/9148,110031
10. , (2010): -
, , http://www.polit.ru/article/2010/10/26/manifest/;
http://www.polit.ru/kino/2010/10/26/manifest.html
11. Perii, Sran (2014): Geopolitiko usmerenje spoljne politike Rusije, Vojno delo, br:
leto 2014, Beograd.
12. Schmitt, Carl (1991): Die planetarische Spannung zwischen Ost und West und der
Gegensatz von Land und Meer (1959), Schmittiana III, Bruxelles, pp. 1944
13. Petranovi, Branko (1981): Istorija Jugoslavije 1918-1978, Nolit, Beograd.
14. Rumsfeld, Donald (2011): Known and Unknown: A Memoir, Penguin Group, New York.
15. Trubeckoj, Nikolaj (2004): Evropa i oveanstvo, Logos, Beograd.
16. Hantington, Semjuel (2000): Sukob civilizacija i preoblikovanje svetskog poretka ,CID
Podgorica i Romanov Banja Luka.

The geopolitical orientation Serbia: the need to define

Summary: The author deals in the first part of the text with the issue of the geopoliti-
cal identity which makes a ground in building a safe geopolitical state, i.e. state geopolitical
ambitions, goals and practice in regional and inter-state relationships. There are three basic
elements of a geopolitical identity (influenced by environment, civilization, predominating
ideology) based on the example of Russia and the USA, in other words on the example of a
geopolitical Euroasianism and Atlanticism.
In the other part of the text the geopolitical identity of Serbia is perceived within the
context of the Atlanticism confronting the Euroasian politics, but also within a context of
lack of a sufficiently defined Serbian practical geopolitics. During the 20th century, the
Yugoslav idea, Serbia and Serbian ethnic area had been controlled by the Anglo-American
geopolitics. It did not bring a single geopolitical gain, but the fragmentation of ethnic area as
a key element for the articulation of Serbian geopolitics.
Key words: Geopolitics, Atlanticism, Euroasianism, Serbia, Russia, the West, geopo-
litical Orientation, civilization, land (country), the see

165
 338.2(5):339.9(470)

: 13.05.2015
: 28.05.2015

:
-
.
, , -
21. ,
. -
, , -
, .
, , -


-. -
,
,
,
, .
: , , , ,

2000 .
(Mark Edward Lewis) -
-
. -
.
,
. , -

sanja_arezina@yahoo.com
 ,
.
, , , , (
) .

(Lewis, 2009: 157, 165). ,
15. , -
(Bartolomeu Diaz) (Vas-
co da Gama),
-
(Gorshkov and Ba-
gaturia, 2001: 51). ,
-
-
.
-
.
-
-
. -
-
.

, ,
.
2013.
, -
, -
10-15 . -
,
. -
-

(
, Tiezzi, 6.
2014).
( )
.


, ,
,
-
.
, ,
,
168
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
,
, -
. win-win -
,
-
, ,
. , ,

(Fuzeren De Daguo) , -
(Zoellick, 2005).
. , ,
, .
-
,

.
,

, . ,
.

-
. -
.
, ,
. , ,
.

,
, , -
2013. ,

. -
7. -
, , 21.
31. , (Friends
of Europe, 2014).

. (, ), -


-
. , -
169
 ,
,
( ), () ()
.
, . -

, , , . -
,

. (
), -


. 21.
. -
, , ,
(Tiezzi, 2015).
(Quanzhou) , -
( ), () ()
. ,
,
.

(Tiezzi, 9. 2014).
, ,
.
-
, -
. -
, ,

. -

,
-
,

(Shaofeng, 2010: 7; Storey, 2006).
,
, .
, ,
, -
going out
(Diplomatic Courier, 2012).
, ,
.
170
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188

. 18.
, -
(Ze, 2014).

(Weibin, 2013).1
-
-
50 , -
40 -
, ,
(Friends of Europe,
2014).2 , -
50
. 65 ,
. 15 -
15 5
, (ChinaFile,
2014).3 , ,
,
10 15 ,
, , 18.
(Zhiping, 2014).

a
,
, ,

1
18. 2012.
.
-
60
, : ,
(
, , , ), -
, ,
, -
.
, -
, .
: , , win-win
.
2
,
21. .
3
(Jin Qi), -
.
171
 ,
. -
, , -
-
, , -
-. -
, -

,
, , -
.
-
,
, -
,
(+16). -
, , 1949.
,
. , -
,
.
, , -
-
. , ,
-
.

.

.
-
.
, , , ,
.
, -

.

. -
2004. ,
2008.
.

(Pencea, 2013).


172
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
-
. (Szczudlik-Tatar, 2010: 349-363). -

, ,

, -
(Zuokui,
2014). -
(
)
.
, ,
win-win (Shuangying)
, .
(-
) ,
, -
, -
().

+16
(2013) (2014).
, ,
, ,
(Jiabao, 2011).
10 -
, -
, , , .
-
, 500 -
. -
,
(
). -
17 (Li
Keqiang) 10 -
, 8,5 ,
, 3

-
(Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Peo-
ples Republic of China, 2014).

(ODF) -
25
173
 ,
(ODA).
, 10-20
2 4 3-7 (Areina, 2013: 368).
:
, -
(. )
( -
, Hubbard, 2007: 7). -
, .

. -
-
. -
,
,
(Szczudlik-Tatar, 2010: 349-363). , -
,
,
( China Overseas Engineering Group
Company COVEC ),

, -
, ,
,
. -
, -
,
.
.

-
, , , , -
. 2009.
China Ocean Shipping Company COSCO 35
( 500 2,5 -
) -
67
(Deutsche Welle, 2014).

, -
, : , ,
, , ,
174
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
,
(China Institute for International Relations, 2014).
2014. , -
, .
, , , -
2013. -
.
-
,
. 2014. ,
,
-, 2,4 ,
2017. . -
,
,
. -
-
-
. -
, -

. .
-
, -

21.
,

800 (Zuokui, 2014). ,
,
, -
. , (Alexis Tsipras) , -
67 , 908
, : COSCO Holding
Co., APM Terminals, Ports America Inc., Internati-
onal Container Terminal Services Inc, Cartesian Capital Group Utilico
Emerging Markets Ltd.
33 (World
Maritime News, 2015; The Wall Street Journal, 2015).
, -
, , . -

, ,
, ,
, . ,
175
 ,

, -
-
. -

, ,
, (China Daily, 31.
2015). (Yannis Dra-
gasakis) -
,
, .

, , -
(China Daily, 28. 2015).
-

,

.
, ,

67 COSCO
.
-
,
,
. .
, -
, 1 2, 350 , -
9 12
, 3, . -
1,251 , .
(soft loan). 2019. .
, , (
2014. ) -
(-) ,
10 4,
. China Shandong
International Economic & Technical Cooperation Group Ltd. SIETC -
11.
, -
642 . -
,
11,
.
176
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
,
1,3 ( -
, 2014).

. -
-
- - . 5,5
40 .
25 greenfield .
2012. - Lava-
lin China Nuclear Power Engeneering Co CNPEC
,
600 .
Huawei 2013.
( -
10, 11 -
) 200 . +16 -
-,
, . K-
Everrest Production 28. 2015. -
.
15 (B92, 2015).

. -.
2014. -
China Road and Bridge Corporation CRBC
- 42 807
, 687 . ,
. ,

(Crna Gora, 2015).
- 2020.
. -
-, 50
, 150
(B92, 2014). Hubei Power China
275
. -
.
, -
.
,
. , 8 ,
, , , ,
, , , - -
177
 ,
(Szczudlik-Tatar, 2010: 10).
,
-
, Lenov ZTE. Donghui Sports Equipment
Company - DHS

70 . Chinese Nuclear Power Enge-
nering 6,45 -
1996. 2007.
Candu. China National Electric Equipment
Corporation 500 MW -
1 (Vreme, 2014). , . -
Tarnia-Lputeti 1000
MW 1,3 (CSIS, 2011). , -
, 19. 2011. 1240
40 . Huawei -
, F&J Group -
.
.
(Zhejiang) -
-
(Szczudlik-Tatar, 2010: 10).
China Minmetals Corporation 2009. 800
Aurubis ,
. 2010.
Polar Photo-voltaics Polar-Wiscom Bulgaria
. 5 -
. Great Wall Motors, ,
Litex Motors 80 2009.
. Great Wall Motors Litex
Motors 2013. .
Lifan Group , Huawei ZTE
. China Luoyang Float
Glass Group . Chinas
National Nuclear Corporation
1000 MW (Kozloduy).
-
(CSIS, 2011). -
,
.

( ) -
( 350 550 ),
- .
, -
178
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
(2001/80/EC) -
, Dong-
fang electric corporation, 2016. (Biznis finansije,
2013).
, 8 .
600 . -
7 .
2012. -
(-
, ) EFT Group -
(Sinohydro Corporation Ltd, Dongfang Electric
). 60 .
Sinohydro -
-
186 , 22 -

. 190
93 , 70 , 20-30
(Nezavisne novine,
2013).

,
500 .
, -
, ,
2014.
-
CSEBA (Politika, 2014).
2011. -
12 -
. 1,5
15 , 85 (CSIS,
2011). Sinohydro
- 56,7 - 53
(Bilten 2015). -
, ,
+16 2014.

(China Military, 2014).
,
2014. . -
,
, China
State Construction Company CSCEC (Balkan Insight, 2015).

179
 ,
je . -
China
Railway Construction Corporation China National Machinery Import and Export
Corporation.
, --
22 . China Civil Engineering
Construction Cooperation 2012. -
29 ,

. , 35 ,
36 12 (Deloitte, 2013). -

( ) , , ,
.
- 10-12 (Reu-
ters, 2014).
2009. COVEC 1

. , -
, .
-
62 Sinohydro 50
(OSW, 2012). +16
- -
- (Logistic, 2014).

, -

,
, .
, -
, -

. , -
,
.
. -

(
- -
)
(Lo, 2008: 15, 55). ,
180
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
, ,
.
, .
, ,
-
. (Xi Jin-
ping) 2014.
, -
(Xinhuanet, 2015). ,
, . -
,
, , -
(Wang Yi) 2014.
( -400),

(The Diplomat, 2015).
-
, 21.
-
.
-
, ,
.
. ,
, ,
. -
. ,
.
50 ,
, .

. ,

,
,
, , , -
(The Diplomat, 2014).4

,

4
String of Pearls 2005.
Booz Allen Hamilton
(Donald Rumsfeld). String
of Pearls
.
181
 ,
. -


. -

.
, -
, , -
2013. .

.

, (Politika, 2014).
, -

. -
-
. -
, ,

.
,
,
.
, -
(,
, Zakarija, 2009: 116). , ,

. -
, , -
.

.

(The Diplomat, 2015). ,

.5 ,
,
(Barack Obama) ,

5
(Nial Ferguson) -
(Moritz Schularics) 2006. -
-
2008-2009. . Nial Ferguson, Not two countries, but one: Chimerica,
The Telegraph, izvor: internet, www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3638174/Not-two-
countries-but-one-Chimerica.html, 26/05/2013.
182
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
,
.
,
, ,
.

.
,
, ,
, .

, -
-
. -
(...)
-
, 20.
(Huang Hua).

, -
. -
, , going out
. -
2008.

-.
, ,
. ,
, -
.
-

. -

,
-
, .
, -
,
-
- , ,
183
 ,
.
(Politika, 2014).
36
,

(
,
),
( ) -
(China Institute for International Relations, 2014).
,
,
,
() .

.
. -
, ,
, -
.

,
.
,
.
,
,
, -
. - -
. -
. -
, -
,
- .

, -
-
.

, , , ,
.
,
2014.
(Bilateral investment treaty - BIT) 25
( ,
).
184
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
-
-
.
,
21. . ,
, , -
, , , , -
,
, -, , ,
. -
, -
,
. , -
-
, .

:
1. Areina, S (2013): Odnos izmeu NR Kine i Jugoslavije i Srbije od 1977. do 2009. go-
dine, doktorska disertacija, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Srbija.
2. Balkan Insight (2015): Chinese to Build Albanian Highway to Macedonia,
: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/chinese-corporation-to-build-new-
albanian-highway (: 19. 2015).
3. Bilten (2015): Kineski capital u Makedoniji: skupe autoceste i kreditiranje korupcije,
: http://www.bilten.org/?p=6040 (: 20. 2015).
4. Biznis finansije (2013): Kina: novi igra na evropskom terenu, :
http://bif.rs/2013/12/kina-novi-igrac-na-evropskom-terenu/#sthash.xu3CfkRT.dpbs
(: 19. 2015).
5. B92 (2014): Koncesija za Koridor 11 Kinezima, :
http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija.php?yyyy=2014&mm=04&dd=10&nav_id=834992
(: 21. 2015)
6. B92 (2015): Ova fabrika lasta dovee investiture, :
http://www.b92.net/mobilni/biz/1009328 (: 19. 2015).
7. China Daily (2015): China urges new Greek leaders to honor COSCO Piraeus contract,
31. 2015, : http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-
01/31/content_19457301.htm (: 20. 2015).
8. China Daily (2015): Piraeus port deal still alive, Greek deputy PM says. 28. 2015,
: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-03/28/content_19935378.htm
(: 21. 2015).
9. China File (2014): With New Fund, China Hits a Silk Road Stride, :
http://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/caixin-media/new-fund-china-hits-silk-
road-stride (: 19. 2015).
10. China Institute for International Relations (2014): The Role of Central and Eastern
Europe in the Building of Silk Road Economic Belt, :
http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-09/18/content_7243192.htm (: 21.
2015).

185
 ,
11. China Military (2014): Chinese premier highlights infrastructure projects with CEE
countries, : http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/today-
headlines/2014-12/18/content_6275101.htm (: 19. 2015).
12. Crna Gora (2015): Bar sarauje sa kineskom lukom, :
http://crna.gora.me/vijesti/drustvo/bar-saraduje-sa-kineskom-lukom/ (: 25.
2015).
13. CSIS (2011): Chinas new Balkan Strategy, Volume1, Number 2, :
http://csis.org/files/publication/110829_CEW_China_in_Balkans.pdf (:
19. 2015).
14. Deloitte (2013): Infrastructure Industry, : http://www.invest.gov.tr/en-
US/infocenter/publications/Documents/INFRASTRUCTURE.INDUSTRY.pdf (-
: 22. 2015).
15. Deutsche Welle (2014): China's Premier continues European investment tour in Greece,
: http://www.dw.de/chinas-premier-continues-european-investment-tour-
in-greece/a-17716743 (: 11. 2015).
16. Diplomatic Courier (2012): China's Going Out Strategy. :
http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/regions/brics/952?showall=1 (:
19. 2015).
17. Ferguson, N (2007): Not two countries, but one: Chimerica, The Telegraph,
: www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3638174/Not-two-countries-but-one-
Chimerica.html, (: 18. 2015).
18. Friends of Europe (2014): Deepening China-EU security cooperation along the Silk
Road Economic Belt, : http://www.friendsofeurope.org/global-
europe/deepening-china-eu-security-cooperation-along-silk-road-economic-belt (-
: 23. 2015).
19. Gorshkov, T & Bagaturia, G (2001): Traceca Restoration of Silk Route. Japan
Railway & Transport Review No. 28, : http://jrtr.net/jrtr28/pdf/f50_gor.pdf
(: 19. 2015).
20. Hubbard, P (2007): Aiding Transparency: What We Can Learn About China Exim
Banks Concessional Loans, Working Paper Number 126, Center for Global Develop-
ment, : http://www.cgdev.org/files/14424_file_AidingTransparency.pdf
(: 23. 2015).
21. Jiabao, W (2011): Strenghthen Traditional Friendship and Promote Common Develop-
ment, The China-CEE Economic Forum, Budapest, :
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/wenjiabaofangwenouzhou_665752/t8
36545.shtml (: 17. 2015).
22. Lewis, M. E (2009): Chinas cosmopolitan empire: The Tang Dinasty (History of Impe-
rial China). The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
23. Lo, B. (2008): The Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics,
Chatham House, London, Brookings Institution, Washington D. C.
24. Logistic (2014): China will connect Romania and Moldova with high-speed railway,
: http://en.logistic.ru/news/news.php?num=2014/12/26/15/7454 (-
: 19. 2015).
25. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Peoples Republic of China (2014): Li Keqiang At-
tends and Addresses Fourth China-CEEC Economic and Trade Forum, :
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/wshd_665389/t1220475.shtml (-
: 20. 2015).
26. Nezavisne novine (2013), Kinezi dostavili idejno reenje za autoput, Dostupno na:
http://www.nezavisne.com/posao/privreda/Kinezi-dostavili-idejno-rjesenje-za-autoput-
214593.html (pristupljeno: 19. jun 2015).
186
 , . XII (2015), , . 167-188
27. OSW (2012): Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and the Chinese economic expansion in Eas-
tern Europe, : http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-
commentary/2012-05-28/ukraine-belarus-and-moldova-and-chinese-economic-
expansion (: 19. 2015).
28. Pencea, S (2013): Windows of Opportunity in China-CEE Economic Relations. Paper
delivered to the meeting of China and Central and Eastern European Countries: Econo-
mic Cooperation and Outlook, Beijing, : http://www.globeco.ro/wp-
content/uploads/vol/split/vol_1_no_2/geo_2013_vol1_no2_art_001.pdf (:
21. 2015).
29. Politika (2014): Kineski zid na putu Srbije ka EU?, Dostupno na:
http://www.politika.rs/rubrike/Politika/Kineski-zid-na-putu-Srbije-ka-EU.lt.html (pris-
tupljeno: 25. jun 2015).
30. Politika (2014): Otvorena kancelarija asocijacije za ulaganja Kine u regionu,
: http://www.politika.rs/vesti/najnovije-vesti/Otvorena-kancelarija-asocijacije-za-
ulaganja-Kine-u-regionu.sr.html (: 19. 2015).
31. Reuters (2014): Turkey, China in talks on $ 10-12 billion energy investment: minister,
: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-turkey-china-energy-
idUSBREA4404J20140505 (: 18. 2015).
32. Shaofeng, C (2010): Chinas Self-Extrication from the Malacca Dilemma and Implica-
tions, International Journal of China Studies. Institute of China Studies, University of
Malaya, Vol. 1, No. 1.
33. Storey, I (2006): Chinas Mallaca Dilemma. China Brief. Vol. 6, Issue 8. :
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=31
575&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=196&no_cache=1 (: 19. 2015).
34. Szczudlik-Tatar, J (2010): Central and Eastern Europe in Chinas foreign policy after
the last EUs enlargement, In: Majer M et al (eds) Panorama of global security enviro-
nment, Bratislava: CENAA, 349-363.
35. Tiezzi, S (2014): China's 'New Silk Road' Vision Revealed, The Diplomat, 9. 2014.
: http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/chinas-new-silk-road-vision-revealed
(: 19. 2015).
36. Tiezzi, S (2014): The New Silk Road: China's Marshall Plan?, The Diplomat, 6. -
2014, : http://thediplomat.com/2014/11/the-new-silk-road-chinas-
marshall-plan (: 22. 2015).
37. Tiezzi, S (2015): Where Is China's Silk Road Actually Going?, The Diplomat, -
: http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/where-is-chinas-silk-road-actually-going (-
: 23. 2015).
38. The Diplomat (2015): Mackinder Revisited: Will China Establish Eurasian Empire 3.0?,
: http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/mackinder-revisited-will-china-establish-
eurasian-empire-3-0 (: 20. 2015)
39. The Diplomat (2014): The Maritime Silk Road Vs. String of Pearls, :
http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/the-maritime-silk-road-vs-the-string-of-pearls (-
: 21. 2015).
40. The Wall Street Journal (2015): Greece to Proceed With Piraeus Port Privatization,
: http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-to-proceed-with-piraeus-port-
privatization-1423573999 (: 19. 2015).
41. Vlada Republike Srbije (2014): Sutra otvaranje mosta Zemun-Bora, :
http://www.srbija.gov.rs/vesti/vest.php?id=227214 (: 19. 2015).
42. Vreme (2014): Glad za novcem na putu svile, :
http://www.vreme.co.rs/cms/view.php?id=1252169 (: 23. 2015).

187
 ,
43. Weibin, G (2013): Chinese Experience of Development, Lecture, Seminar China's issu-
es, 16-31 November 2013, Beijing: Chinese Academy of Governance.
44. World Maritime News (2015): Privatization of Piraeus Port Back on Track?,
: http://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/151798/privatization-of-piraeus-port-back-
on-track (: 20. 2015).
45. Xinhuanet (2015): Chronology of China's Belt and Road initiatives, :
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2015-02/05/c_133972101.htm (:
18. 2015).
46. Zakarija, F (2009): Postameriki svet, Heliks, Smederevo.
47. Ze, S (2014): One Road and One Belt and New Thinking With Regard to Concepts and
Practice. Chinese Institute of International Studies, :
http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-11/25/content_7394056.htm, (: 22.
2015).
48. Zhiping, P (2014): Silk Road Economic Belt: A Dynamic New Concept for Geopolitics
in Central Asia, China Institute of International Studies, :
http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-09/18/content_7243440.htm (: 19.
2015).
49. Zoellick, R. B (2005): Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?, Remarks
as prepared for delivery to National Committee on US-China Relations, New York City.
: www.state.gov (: 20. 2015).
50. Zuokui, L (2014): The Role of Central and Eastern Europe in the Building of Silk Road
Economic Belt. China Institute of International Studies, :
http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-09/18/content_7243192.htm (: 19.
2015).

CHINESE NEW SILK ROAD AND THE BALKANS

Summary: The New Silk Road is a part of China's energy and economy strategy by
which the Chinese leadership seeks to reduce its dependence on seaways and to supplant the
continental links with new railway. The One Belt, One Road initiative, which encompasses
Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, represents a part of Chi-
nese neighborhood policy that aims to create stability through economic development and
cooperation. Beijing sees the Balkans as an important part of the project of strengthening
political, infrastructural, economic and monetary relations between China, Central Asia and
Europe. The goal is to foster the creation of network of ports, logistic centers, roads and
railways through infrastructure investments, and to create favorable conditions for diversifi-
cation of Chinese cargo and energy transport and to distribute Chinese products and enhance
the East - West trade. In that way China accomplishes its core national interests - enhances
energy security, opens new markets for Chinese construction companies and helps food
security for its 1.3 billion people, while Balkan states gain funding to modernize its energy
sector, infrastructure, shipping and transport.
Key words: China, New Silk Road, Balkans, Europe, investments

188
 . 316.7(497):316.774

: 10.05.2015
: 30.05.2015

: ,
.
- , -

. -
, , ,
. -
, ,
. (-
--, )
,
.

(), -
.
: , , , , ,

( ,
, ; -
, ;
...) , -
,
,

. , -
-

179008 ,
, ,
, .
 . ,
, .

;
,
;
, -
, - .
, , -
,
-
.
-
,
;
,
, -
.
, ,
, ! -
, , -
,
, .
,
,
, -
.

,
.
-
-
-
, .1
(soft power),2 ,3

1
(-
) , , -
, . (, 2007: 82).
2
(Joseph Nye, Jr.),

. : (), () -
( ). (Nye J., Jr. Think Again: Soft Power , Foreign Policy, 2006, February 23).
3
, : ,
, -
,
.
.
190
 , . XII (2015), , . 189-204
.
,
-
,
.4 ,
,
.
-
,
.


,
. -
,
. ,
-
. , -
, -
, , , , -
.

, ,
,
. ,
,
. ,

, -
, -
. , 5
-
, . -
,
, -
-
, .

4
,
, 1980, 2.600
.
, .
: , , 2000. . 53-57.
5
-
, , - , ,
, ,
.
191
 . ,
, -
- , -
,
. 6 ,
!
,
, -
? -
: - Ringer Axel Springer
(RAS) : , ,24 , , ,
, -
.7 ,
92 -
, .8 -

: 1,
--,9 -
10 .11
-
, 12
, -
. -
, -

6
, . , .: , 2010, . 148.
7
: blic.rs zena.blic.rs.
8
Das Erste, -
Pro Sieben. ,
, . -
.
9
1 (N1) -- (CNN), -
Junajted grupe, (SBB). -
Kolberg Kravis Roberts (KKR),
. (Davd Petreys),
CIA!
10
, ,

( , , . 2,
18. 8. 2013)!
11
(. Al-Gazirat - ).
(1. 1996.) -
150 -
22 , ,
, 18 .
12
Voce of America, Free Europe Radio Liberty ,
.
, -
40 , !
192
 , . XII (2015), , . 189-204
13
! -
-
,

, .

-
, -
, , -
-
.

-
, -
. - ,
,
.
,
.
:
- (RFI),
, -- (BBC) ,
. W
(Deutsche Welle) ,
.
, --
(The Cable News Network), 1. 1980. -
, 40 (10
29 ), 900 -
, . --
AOL Time Warner,
. -
: Time Warner 1995. Turner Broadcasting,
, 2001. AOL-om (America On Li-
ne), . -
80.000 , --.
1991. ,

13
, 170 -
, , -
, 2014.
: 250 -
, !
193
 . ,
, . -
1989.
, -
, , -
. -
: ,
. -- brea-
king news ( )
, ,
(real-time news).
24- ,
, -
.
-

,
.
2006. : , -
,
: . -


, -
. -
,
-
. 14
. ,
. -
-
, .
1,

.
-- , -
,
.
: , -
, . 15 -
, , -
,
. Njuz 7,

14
-
--!
194
 , . XII (2015), , . 189-204
-- . -
:
(Cameron Munter)
, -
?15
-- -


,
. ,
, ,
.

, -
-
. -
,
,
, .
-
, ,
. (
)16 .

,
. -
(),
- . -

: -, - - (Schleifer, 1998: 11), -
, .
,
--,
. -

15
, ,
-- , , 15

().
16
,
.

!
195
 . ,
,
, - . -
--,
, .
1994. -- , -
, : -
, -
!
.
,
, .
, -
(, 2009: 68). -
,
.
-
-,17 -
--.
24
, , (
-),
. --
, 250 , -
, , , - -
.18 (1. -
1996.)
,
150
22 , ,
, 18
. -
, - : Al Jazeera Sports, Al Jazeera Chil-
dren, Al Jazeera International, Al Jazeera Documentary, Al Jazeera English .
-- , -
.
,
.
, ,
- .
, (Mamoun Fandy),
() : , -

17
- (Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani)
140 , (El-
Nawawy i Iskander, 2003:33.).
18
Maalouf, 2008: 6.
196
 , . XII (2015), , . 189-204
- anywhere but here, -
, (Fandy,
2007: 9).
(Wada al Yad), -
.
,
(Fandy, 2007: 16). ,
, ,
, ,
.

, -
!
-,
11. 2011. . ,
, ,
.
, , -
. , , , -
, , , , , , -
, , 70
,
. -
, news ,
15 ,
.
( 60 ),
,
- 2015. .
, -

-- . -
,
( 12 24 ),
.
, ;
.
, -
. ,
, , -
. ,
: .
, ,
. ,
, -
197
 . ,
.
(Seib, 2008: xii).

- -
-
, ( ),19
,
.
( . .) .
,
, -
,
. , -
-
: , , , , -
, , , , , , , -
, , , , , , , , ,
, , .
-
, -
, - .
-

, .
2005. -
(. Russia Today, . RT; . -
),
. -
( ) ( -
), . -
, , -
( ),
. , -

( ), -
(
),
30 ,
, . -
, -

19
, -
.
198
 , . XII (2015), , . 189-204
(Knobel, 2005). 300 ,
(-
), ,
. -
, . -
(, 16.11.2014).
-
. , -
: - (: ) 2007.
(. RT Actualidad: ), .
2010, -
, 2011. , .
-,
, -
- - (You-Tube), -
2006. (https://www.youtube.com/user/
RussiaToday). 29
2.500 , ,
, ,
,
. 20
(4
) (1 ), 30 -
, 500 . --- (. . IPTV/Internet Pro-
tocol elevision: - ) .
650 , 28%
() ,
2,8
(, 2014: 21). 2014. -
( 400 ),
.
(2009),

.
-, , -
, ,
.
2010. -
, -- ,

20
(. Russapeda
http://russapeda.rt.com/), . -
, ,
, . -
, -
, -!
199
 . ,
(Haider, 2010).
2012. 2,5 -
-- . (Laughlin, 2013).
(Der Spiegel), , -
-CNN
; 13
;
; -
2013. Russia Today YouTube
- -.

:
, ,
-; ,
, , .

, --,
, -
. -
, . (Larry King), (1980-
2010) ,
(Larry King Now)
(Politicking with Larry King).
,
! 21
,
. --, -
-
. -
, -
, ,
. ( ) ,

(2008).
-
,
. ,
: --
,
.
,
, .

21
, ( )

!
200
 , . XII (2015), , . 189-204
, .
-
(2014),
40 . -
,
,

. --
, -
:
,
,
!
: , ,
.
,
,
.

. ,
,
28 . -
,

. 22
, -
.
, ,
. -
-
. ,
() -
,23
2013.
, ,
.
, !

22
: Srbin.info, Fond strateke kulture, Glas Rusije,
Ruska re, SrbiNaOkup, FejsbukReporter, Srpska.ru, Vostok, Pravoslavnaja porodica, Pravda
Zavetnici.rs!
23
, , 2009, -
. -
, , ,
, -
, .
.
201
 . ,
, -
.

, -
.
-
, ?,
(Ioffe,
2010).

,
.
80
, 2002.
45 ?
,
,
.24 -
,
. ,

, : -
,
,
. -
, , ,
, , . -
, ,
?25 :
,
, !
-
, ;
. , -

24


, , -
.
. 150
, -.
25
21 ,
.
.
202
 , . XII (2015), , . 189-204
, , , -
,
. -
(agenda setting), -
, . -
,
.
,
!
-
.
, , -
.
! -
,
: , . -
.
, , ,
. -
, -
.

:
1. El-Nawawy, M. i Iskander, A.: Al-Jazeera, Boulder: Westview, 2003.
2. Fandy, M.: (Un)civil war of words: media and politics in the Arab world, US:
Greenwood, 2007. , .: : .
: . , 2005.
3. Haider, R.(2010): Media Foreign News Channels Drawing U.S. Viewers,
(http://www.ipsnews.net/2010/01/media-foreign-news-channels-drawing-usviewers/;
23. 11. 2014.)
4. https://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday; 18.11.2014.
5. Ioffe, J. (2010): What is Russia Todey?, Columbia Journalism Review
(http://www.cjr.org/feature/what_is_russia_today.php?page=all; 19. 11.
2014.
6. Knobel, B.(2005): Russian News, English Accent: New Kremlin Show Spins Russia
(http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-news-english-accent-11-12-2005/; -
23. 11. 2014.)
7. Laughlin, A.(2013): RT Russian news channel goes HD on Sky,
(http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/media/news/a450812/rt-russian-news-channelgoes-hd-on-
sky.html#~oH9R70bjpFNPTQ; 24. 11. 2014.)
8. Maalouf, A.: The influence of Al Jazeera in the Arab world and response of Arab go-
vernment. US: ProQuest Information and Larning Company, 2008.
9. Naj, D. J. (2012): Budunost moi, Arhipelag, Beograd.
10. RT (http://rt.com/about-us; 25. 11. 2014.)
11. Russiapedia (http://russiapedia.rt.com/; 17. 11. 2014.)
203
 . ,
12. Schleifer, S. A. (1998): Media explosion in the Arab World: The Pan-Arab Satellite
Broadcasters, Transnational Broadcasting Studies, poseeno 21.11. 2014.
URL:http://www.tbsjournal.com/Archives/Fall98/Articles1/Pan-Arab-bcasters/htlm
13. Seib, P.: The Al Jazeera Effect: How the New Global Media are Reshaping World Poli-
tics, Washington: Potomac Books, 2008.
14. Despotovi, Lj. i Jevtovi, Z.: Geopolitika i mediji, Kultura polisa, Grafomarketing,
Novi Sad, 2010.
15. Zinovjev, A. (2003): Slom ruskog komunizma, BIGZ, Beograd.
16. Jevtovi, Z. (2000): Totalitarizam i masmediji, Krajinski knjievni krug i BIGZ, Beo-
grad.
17. Jevtovi, Z.: Kult Al-Dazire u globalnom medijskom sazveu, Filozofeme, Zbornik
Srpskog filozofskog foruma br. 10, Novi Sad, 2009.
18. Mileti, M.: Rusija danas (RT) odgovor globalnom medijskom jednoumlju, Kultura
polisa, br. 25, god. XI, Novi Sad, 2014.
19. ernov, A.: Traganje za kulturnim identitom faktor medija, Prometej, Beograd,
2007.Relji, S,:

THE ASYMMETRIC BATTLE FOR INFLUENCE IN THE BALKANS

Summary: In the new world order the nature od international relations changes as
well as the nature of national power instruments. Rapid integration of advanced technologies
into communication systems and security strategies produces a soft power, which becomes
much more effective by its devastating psychological impact than any military force. In new
social environment, everything changes and adapts to communication effect, during which
process media sensations, speculations, spinning and images come to the fore. If in the indus-
trial society the key factor of managing was domination of the sea and air, today it is the
monitoring of communication flow, by which managing consciousness is provided. The
global media giants (American CNN, Russian Russia Today and Qatar Al Jazeera) sudden
interest for an active role in Balkans, indicates strategic interests in this area, but it also indi-
cates a preparation for post-war reconstruction which shall limit the sovereignty of local
governments. Those who creates public flow of symbols and its meanings (mainstream) wins
on idea market, but small nations have not learned lessons that have cost them dearly in the
past.
Key words: Balkans, media, soft power, influence, public, civil society

204
 327:327.5

: 22.05.2015
: 16.06.2015

:

.

.

( )
, , -
2030. ,
(National Intelligence Council),

, , . ,
, -
,
-
, .
.
- , ,
, .
.
: , , , -
, 2030.

,
-
. ,
, . -
 , ...
, (2000),
(2003), (2005 2010)? ,
(1953),
(1954), (1973), (1984), .?
tvitter- (
2009. )
, -
. . (
) -

,
.
, ( ,
, , ,
) 20- -

, -
. -
, -
, . , -
a ,
-
, ,
,
,
.

, ,
-

.
- .
-
,
, -
,
.1

1
,
17. 1947. , : ''
... , , , -
, ,
, '' (, 2013:
206
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229

, , (Hixson,
1989). -
-
, -
.

(Rositzke, 1977:148). ( -
) (Richard Bissell), 1958.
,
- ...
-
(Bissel, 1996).
, -

.

.
, ,

. -
(USAID) 1999. :
.2
-
(Mutual Security Agency, 1951-1953), (Foreign
Operations Administration, 1953-1955, (Inter-
national Cooperation Administration, 1955-1961) ,
(U.S. Agency for International Development, USAID,
1961. ) -
, .
.3
-
, 1941.
-

58);
(Papandreou Andreas) : '' -
,
-
'' (Papandreou, 1970: 5).
2
US Agency for International Development, Direct Economic Benefits of U.S. Assistance
Programs, 1999.
3
-
(1977-1981) (John Gilligan) : ''
() .
-
, , , '' (Cotter, 1981: 321).
207
 , ...
(Felix Morlion), ,
(Pro Deo). O -
, -
. -
, -
,
. ,
, .
-
,
, -
.
, 22
. : , , ,
,
-
(, 2011: 123).
-
: ,
(-
, 2011: 155). -
1954. , : ... ,
,
... . ,
.
. ... , , -
...
,
, , , -
. . ,
,
.
, . , -
: , , ,
, .
. , .
, . -
. -
, . , -
... ( , 2013: 11). -
, 1953. -
( ) -
. 11 (1953-1964)
149 (, ..,
2013: 339-340).
208
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229
-
: Free Trade Union Committee,
American Institute for Free Labor Development, African-American Labor Cen-
ter, Asian-American Free Labor Institiute Free Trade Union Institute (
); 1997. American Center for Internatio-
nal Labor Solidarity. - , -
(
),
: Freedom
House, International Rescue Committee, Heritage Foundation, Free Con-
gress Foundation (, 2014: 36).
-
-
(National Endowment for Democracy NED), 1983. .
(Walter Raymond),
-
. -
, -
.

, -
, . -

, , -
.
(International Republican Institute IRI)
(Center for International Private
Enterprise CIPE),
(National Democratic Institute NDI)
(American Center for International Labor
solidarity ACILS).
, , -
.
1984.
(John Richardson), -
1956. , 1961-1968. -
.4 (Allen Weinstein),
-
(1983-1984) ( ),
Washington
Post:
.
.

4
, -
''Freedom House''
1956. (, 2014: 438).
209
 , ...
(Ignatius, 1991). O
' :

: -
1984. ,
; 1986. , -
;
-
;
, -

80- .
-
a
().
,
, ,

, ( .1.).
, -
.

. 1:
: Washington Post, 26 February, 1967.

210
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229


, ,
.
-
,
- . ,
, ,
, 2000-
,5 -

: ,
.
-
.
.
.6
-
24. 1995.
,
: -

, -
. ,
,
, -
. , -
-
, . ,
, .
-
15 , , ,
. . -
. , -

.

. 1991. -
50
, ,
. , ,
. ,

5
, 24, 1999 .
6
South Florida Sun-Sentinel, April 17, 2008.
211
 , ...
. , ,
:
.

; -
.
, . -
-
.

. , -
. -
. . -
:
,
; -
- ; -
, . ,
,
(, , 2010) 7


. - -
(Joan Phillips) :
- ,
, , - -
(Phillips,1993). 1994.
(Charles Boyd) :
-
.
... , -
.8
-
(). -
New York Times (1987) :

...
, . ,
. .
... -
...
.9

7
: http://www.venec-vl.ru/bill-klinton; (11/07/2015)
8
Foreign Affairs, September/October 1994.
9
New York Times, November 1. 1987.
212
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229
, , : -
; -
;

; , -
; , ,

(, 2014: 68-69).
1984. , -
NCS-133 ( )
(Gervasi, 1992/93), 1990. -
- -

(Chossudovsky, 1999). 1999.
-
.

(Gertz, 1999).

,
.
.
,
,
(Donnelly, 1999).

, 17. 1999. -
-
. -
: ,
o (, 2014: 83). -
,
.
(National Democratic Institute, NDI)
11 ,


().
-
, ().
. -

().
(International Republican Insti-
tute, IRI) ,
213
 , ...
(Robert
Helvey).
(. -
!) (Doobs, 2000). -
, (, 2005:178),
-
.
-
35 , -
6 , 9
(Jahn, 2000). . ...
, ,
. ,
, , . , -
(, 2005:178). ,
. -

(, 2014: 84). 2000 ,
,

.
, -
.10
, 5.

.

.

-
-6 (, 2005: 199).
-
.

. Observer-, -

.11
-
- ,
, -
( ) .

10
he Balkans are Latin America for CIA, Monitor, Sofia, Avgust 28, 2000.
11
The Observer, London, October 8, 2000.
214
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229


, -
.
- ( ), (-
-1), ( ), ( -
), (-2). -
,
, ,
, 11. 2001.
.
, , -
2002. ,
60 .12 60
- . , -
11. 2001. , -
Corriere dela Serra
:
...
(, 2010: 56).
.
-
... -

(, 2014: 66). , -
,
, ,
- .
:
(-
) ...
-
. -
, .13
(
), , -
20- . -

, -
, -
(, 2002: 36).
1993.

12
White House, Office of the Press Secretary. June 1, 2001.
13
Foreign Policy, October 25, 2007.
215
 , ...
, . -

, (,
2011: 21-22).

-
2004. .

(Hash-Gonzales, 2012: 44).
, ;
(National Democratic Institute, NDI)
(International Republican Institute, IRI)
. -
Freedom House,
, . (, 2007).
-
, -
2003. , -

.14
,
, ! ( -
!), . -
, ,
2003.
. ,
-
2004. (, 2014:
114). -
,
,
(, 2014: 120).
,
Military Profesional Resources Incorporated (MPRI) (, 2008), -
, -

14
( -
/)
'''' . ''
'' (National Intelligence Council, NIC)
(National Intelligence for Russia and Euroasia),
''
'' (National Intelligence Estimate). -
-
,
(, 2014: 114).
216
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229
- , . -

. ,
. -
-
.
, , ,
(Mann, 1992),
- ,
(, 2014: 128).
- -
- .
-

. -
: USAID, Eurasia partnership Foundation; Suise Agency for Development
and Cooperation; Department for International Development; Deutshe Gesell-
scaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit, International Institute for Democracy
and Electoral Assistance; World Vison Armenia; NDI; International Rese-
arch&Exchange Board; Environmental Public Advocacy Center; Fond za otvoreno
drutvo. () -
-
(, 2011).
, 2011-
3749 , 750 302 -
, 15-20% ,
, , -
(,
2014:128). ,
-
(. - -
). -
.
, , -
-
, , ,
-
- -
, . (, 2014 : 131). -
-
.

.

.
217
 , ...
-
. 2007. ,
1997. . -
( 2003.) .
- 2007.
(-
, 2104: 140). -
. 70%

- (, 141). , -
,
. , -

- -
. ,

, . (,
140). ( . ) -
.
, -
,
(
, )
, -
.
,
.
11. 2001. -
(Project for the
New American Century, PNAC) 1992. ,
-
-
.

.
,
-2 (, 2014: 315).
-
: ,
; ,
(-
) .
, -
, , 2005. -
:
218
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229
; ;
; -
;
; .


. ,
, , ,
,

.

350
.
,
.
25 .15

()
-
. ,
, -
.
-
(. 2010. .;
2015. ., -
2020. .) .
,
,
(National Intelligence Council) 2030. -
.
( 2012. ) -
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
2030- : ) ; )
; ) ; ) ; ) -
; ) .16

, , -
, .

15
http://svom.info/entry/223-secrety-cvetnyh-revolucij-prodolzhenie/. (9/7/2015).
16
National Intelligence Council: ''Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds'', December 2012-001.
219
 , ...
, , ,
-
, ,

. ,
,
, -
.
() 2030. -
. -
, , -
.
2030. . ,
,
, , , . -
, , .

. -

. ,
, , , -
. -
, , .,
.
.
,
. , 2020.
8,3 , 7,1 2012. .
(
-
): ,
;
; ,
; , -
,
. -
. -
-
. -

.
. ( 50%
, 2030. 60%,
4,9 ). ;
, ;
220
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229
; -
.
( )
- (35%), (40%),
(50%).
, -
.
:
; -
,
, , - .
.
-
.

. , ,
. -
, ,
, . -
, -
.

.
. ,
-
.
. McKinsey -
-
Lehman Brothers.
-
,
.
. 15-20 ,
,
, (. ),
. -
, -
.
2030. -
.
. -
50 -
221
 , ...
, ,
, .
.
. -
,
2030. .
,
, -
.
. ,
,
, . -

, ,
.
2030.
.
, ,
, ,
, . ,
, , , -
. -

.
, ,
. 15-20

. -

. ,
,
-
. ,
.
, , ,
,
.
-
,
. -
-
, ,
. , ,
- : , , -
, .
222
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229
. 15-20 -
-
. , -
, -
.
-
, -
. -
, . ,
.
, , ,
. ,
,
. -
, ,
-
-
.

, -
. , -
, , -
. ,
.

. -
-
.
,
,
.

. .
, -
, -
. , , 143
(2010. ) 130 2030. .

. 20 ,
14% , 2030.
19%. -
. ,

.

223
 , ...
.
2030. -
, .
, -
.
, 15-20
, ,
.
. ,
, , -
.
. -
-
, -
, .
. Pax Americana

. ,
.
,
( )
. , , ,
-. -
,
( 1/3
, -
5% ; 40% -
, ,
, .).

.
,
-
. ,
-
,
. ,
, -

. -
, , ,
, -
, ,
- .

224
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229

. -
-
,
. , -
,
.
-
,
:
, , ,
(, 2010: 56).
(2006. )
( )
: ,
, ; ;
;
(, 2009: 10). 2008. -
( ): (
) . ,

, , , ,
, . ...,
-
...
, ,
(, 2010: 57). ,
Washington Post-: ' '
' ' -
-
. -
...
XXI (). ,
, , .

-
. -
. , -

-

, -
225
 , ...
, .
.
-
,
, , -
, , . -
, ,
.
-


.
-
, -
.
-
-
-

. -
, -
, , -
, .,
-
-
. - -

-
, . , -

,
-
. ,
-
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
, , -

.
, .
2030.
-
-
.
, ,
, -
226
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229
, -
?
.

:
1. , : ' '
, : : -
, , , 2014.
2. , : 2008
, : : -
, , , 2014.
3. Bissel, Richard. (1996). Reflections of a Cold Warrior: From Yalta to the Bay of Pigs.
New Haven: Yale University Press.
4. , , : -
. : , 2013.
5. , , . :
, 2014a.
6. , : , : -
: , , ,
2014b.
7. , , , , 2011.
8. , : , , , 2013.
9. White House, Office of the Press Secretary. June 1, 2001.
10. Gervasi Sean, Germani, US and the Yugoslav Crisis, Covert Action Quaterly, Winter
1992/93.
11. Gertz Bill, Clinton has Plans to Unseat Milosevic, Washington Times, June 30, 1999.
12. . . , , 2011.
13. Doobs Michael, U.S. Advice Guided Milosevic Opposition, Washington Post, Decem-
ber 11, 2000.
14. Donnelly John, US Tries to Turn Yugoslav Officials, Boston Globe, Avgust 29, 1999.
15. . ., . . .
, -, , 2010.
16. , : 2000 ,
: : ,
, , 2014.
17. , , , , 2009.
18. ., , : :
( 2), , , 2002.
19. , 24, 1999 .
20. Jahn George, U.S. Funding Yugoslavia Reformers, Associated Press, September 29,
2000.
21. Ignatius David, Innocence Abroad: The New World of Spyless Coups, Washington
Post, September 22, 1991.
22. , ?, , 15. O 2007.
23. Cotter George, Spies, Strings and Missinaries, The Cristian Century, March 25, 1981.

227
 , ...
24. , : ,
: : ,
, , 2014.
25. Mann S.R, Chaos Theory and Strategic Thought, Parameters, Vol. 22, US Army War
College Quarterly, 1992.
26. ral Tim, Igra senki, Samizdat B92, Beograd, 2005.
27. , , , , , , : -
, ,, 2013.
28. National Intelligence Council: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, December
2012-001.
29. New York Times, November 1. 1987.
30. ., : ,
, . 1, 2011.
31. , , , 7, 2010.
32. , : -
, : : -
, , , 2014.
33. Papandreou Andreas, Democracy at Gunpoint: The Greek front, Doubleday, New York,
1970.
34. , : , , : -
: ,
, , 2014.
35. Rositzke Harry, The CIAs Secret Operation, Readers Digest Press, , New York 1977.
36. South Florida Sun-Sentinel, April 17, 2008.
37. , : -
, ( ), , , 2013.
38. he Balkans are Latin America for CIA, Monitor, Sofia, Avgust 28, 2000.
39. The Observer, London, October 8, 2000.
40. US Agency for International Development, Direct Economic Benefits of U.S. Assistance
Programs, 1999.
41. Foreign Affairs, September/October 1994.
42. Foreign Policy, October 25, 2007.
43. Phillips Joan, Breaking the Selektive Silence, Living Marxism, April 10, 1993.
44. Hash-Gonzales Kelli, Popular Mobilization and Empowerment in Georgias Rose Revo-
lution, Lexington Books, 2012.
45. Henriksen, . Thomas, Covert Operations, Now More Than Ever, Orbis , Winter 2000.
46. Hixson L. Walter, George F. Kennan: Cold War Iconoclast, Columbia University Press,
1989.
47. , 1954-1991: . -
, , 2011.
48. ., , , 27. 2008.
49. , :
, : -
: . : ,
2014.
50. Chossudovsky Michael, Banking of the Balkans, THIS, July/Avgust 1999.
51. http://svom.info/entry/223-secrety-cvetnyh-revolucij-prodolzhenie/.
52. http://www.venec-vl.ru/bill-klinton;

228
 , . XII (2015), , . 205-229

GEOPOLITICS BETWEEN PLANNED CHAOS AND A NEW ORDER

OF POWER - INTELLIGENCE ASPECT
Summary: The world survives one of the turning moments in its history in which
non-linear changes and processes provide a little chance of making a complete and reliable
image of the future. A large number of conflicting options of possible developments is
primarily attributed to strategic entities in geopolitical and geo-economic horizon. As ma-
king a long-term forecast is one of the main tasks of strategic intelligence services, we will
analyze the process (connecting the dots), which is taking place in continuity from Cold
War in Europe, the Middle East, Asia and South America the intelligence assessment of
developments by the year 2030, prepared by the National Council on Intelligence US (Natio-
nal Intelligence Council) which tries to show that the modern movement must not
unilaterally be seen as a bare rooted, spontaneous, non-linear and mutually unrelated mega-
tendency. Thus, strategic forecasts, as the product thoroughly conducted research and work
of a large number of specialists and experts of a different profile, give an overview of global
processes and trends in specified time frame, whose trajectory can end diametrically opposed
than anticipated, ie. those which would occur that processes are left to 'free movement' '. It
follows that strategic forecasts can be seen as - an alert, warning, and instructions for taking
action to prevent surprises and eliminating undesirable scenarios, ie.instructions for Opera-
tion influence.
Key words: Cold War, colored revolution strategic forecasts, operations influen-
ce, world until year 2030

229
 :

- ljubisa@kpolisa.com (
www.kpolisa.com). B5
(17,6x25,0cm), Times New Roman, Size: 11,
Serbian (Cyrillic), Line spacing: Single.
( 36300
). , ,
, ( : -
, .), , ( 150 )
( ) .
,
.
: (Braudel).

, ,
.
:
(, 1976: 341); (Weber, 1989: 59).

.
:
1. Le Gof, ak (1997): Vreme, rad i kultura srednjovekovnog Zapada, Svetovi, Novi Sad,
2. Robins, Kevin (2001): Kiberprostor i svijet u kojemu ivimo, Kiberprostor, kibertijela i
cyberpank: kulture tehnoloke tjelesnosti, uredili Mike Featherstone i Rober Burrows, Na-
klada Jesenski i Turk, Zagreb,

.
: ,
.
, .
, .
.
:

http://www.kultura.vojvodina.gov.rs/
:
, 149.