POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 1ST AUGUST 2018, 6 AM CST

UltraPoll - Manitoba
Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
1st August 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between July 15th to 17th,
2018 among a sample of 896 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and
random digit dialing. The part of the survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the following regions;
Winnipeg and the rest of Manitoba. In the
case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region
of the province they resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.32% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PALLISTER PCs STILL AHEAD IN MANITOBA

1 AUGUST 2018 (OTTAWA, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives led by Brian

Pallister have nearly a sixteen point lead over the opposition NDP.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a

conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 896 Manitobans
between July 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.27% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Opinion has not shifted much from when we last polled Manitoba in April,” said
Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The PCs still hold a
big lead over the NDP and while the Liberals will be buoyed by the fact their
leader Dougald Lamont has just won a seat in the Legislature, they remain a
distant third.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs have 44.9% (-0.7% from our
previous April release), while the NDP led by Wab Kinew come in with 29.3%
support (-0.9%). The Liberals with Lamont at the helm currently enjoy 13.6%
(+0.6%), and the Greens with James Bedomme as leader have 8.7% (+0.9%).

The PCs lead among both women and men and all age groups, including a nearly
25% lead among respondents older than 65. The PCs also lead in Winnipeg and
in the interior of Manitoba, but their lead over the NDP in Winnipeg is only three
points.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
oters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

14.5%

2.9%

40.2%
7.6%

All Voters

10.8%

oters
ded and Leaning Voters
24.0%

14.5% 3.4%
Progressive Conservatives 8.7%
NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

2.9%

13.6% 40.2%
7.6%

44.9%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters

10.8%

29.3%
24.0%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Rest of Manitoba
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 40.2% 47.7% 32.8% 40.5% 38.5% 38.1% 44.5% 32.9% 52.1%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 24% 23.2% 24.9% 18.7% 29.1% 27.3% 21.2% 27.1% 19.1%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 10.8% 9% 12.6% 8% 10.9% 12.3% 13.1% 12.1% 8.8%
Greens led by James Bedomme 7.6% 7.8% 7.4% 13.1% 4.7% 6.4% 4.3% 9.6% 4.3%
Another Party 2.9% 1.9% 3.9% 4.2% 1.9% 3.1% 2.1% 3.6% 1.8%
Undecided 14.5% 10.4% 18.5% 15.5% 14.8% 12.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14%
Unweighted Frequency 896 460 436 137 157 245 357 469 427
Weighted Frequency 896 441 455 265 227 232 172 558 338

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Rest of MB
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 41.3% 49.5% 33.4% 41.1% 40.3% 39.2% 46% 33.7% 54%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 26.6% 26.1% 27.2% 24.7% 29.8% 28.5% 22.7% 30.2% 20.8%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 12.3% 9.5% 15.1% 9% 11.5% 14.7% 15.3% 13.7% 10%
Greens led by James Bedomme 8% 7.8% 8.2% 13.7% 5.3% 6.4% 4.6% 9.6% 5.3%
Another Party 3.1% 3% 4% 4.2% 1.9% 3.5% 2.3% 3.6% 2.2%
Undecided 8.7% 5.2% 12.1% 7.3% 11.2% 7.7% 9.1% 9.3% 7.7%
Unweighted Frequency 896 460 436 137 157 245 357 469 427
Weighted Frequency 896 441 455 265 227 232 172 558 338

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Rest of MB
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 44.9% 52.1% 38% 43.8% 45.1% 42.2% 50.3% 36.9% 58.1%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 29.3% 27.6% 31% 26.8% 33.6% 31.1% 25.1% 33.3% 22.8%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 13.6% 10% 17.2% 9.9% 13.1% 16% 17% 15.3% 10.9%
Greens led by James Bedomme 8.7% 8.2% 9.3% 15% 6% 6.9% 5.1% 10.5% 5.8%
Another Party 3.4% 2.1% 4.6% 4.6% 2.2% 3.8% 2.6% 4% 2.3%
Unweighted Frequency 822 435 387 127 141 227 327 425 397
Weighted Frequency 822 405 417 243 208 213 158 512 310
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Progressive Conservative Party of
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister What is your age group?
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led 18 to 34 years of age
by Wab Kinew 35 to 49 years of age
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald 50 to 64 years of age
Lamont 65 years of age or older
Green Party of Manitoba led by James
Bedomme
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Progressive Conservative Party of
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led
by Wab Kinew
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald
Lamont
Green Party of Manitoba led by James
Bedomme
Another Party
Undecided
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between July 15th,
2018 and July 17th, 2018, among a sample of 896 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Manitoba. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Manitoba.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of two regions in Manitoba: Winnipeg
and the rest of Manitoba. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the
additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases, respondents
were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.27% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.57%, Females: +/-
4.69%, 18-34 age group: +/- 8.69%, 35-49 age group: +/- 8.25%, 50-64 age group: +/-
6.56%, 65+ age group: +/- 5.42%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.75%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 4.92%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.