Definition:

• The conditional probability of an event A, given that event B has occurred, is defined by
𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
𝑷 𝑨𝑩 = Provided that 𝑷(𝑩) > 0.
𝑷(𝑩)

Read | as “given that”

or “under the
condition that”

• The conditional probability of an event B, given that event A has occurred, is defined
by
𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 = Provided that 𝑷(𝑨) > 0.
𝑷(𝑨)

• The conditional probability of an event ∆, given that event ∎ has occurred, is defined by
𝑷(∆∩∎)
𝑷 ∆∎ = Provided that 𝑷(∎) > 0.
𝑷(∎)
Definition:
The probability that two events, A and B, both occur is given by the multiplication rule,

𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩 =𝑷 𝑨 𝑷 𝑩 𝑨 ,
Provided 𝑷 𝑨 > 0 or by

𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑩 𝑷(𝑨|𝑩)
Provided 𝑷(𝑩) > 0.

Example:
If 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.4, 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.5, and 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0.3, find

𝑃(𝐴 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.3 0.5 = 0.6;

𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.3 0.4 = 0.75

Example: • 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵

• 𝑃 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝐴

• 𝑃 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝐵

• 𝑃 𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟

• 𝑃 𝐴
• 𝑃 𝐵
• 𝑃 𝐴𝐵 • 𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵
• 𝑃 𝑛𝑒𝑖ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝐴 𝑛𝑜𝑟 𝐵
• 𝑃 𝐵𝐴

𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵)
• 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 |𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 )
• 𝑃(𝐵𝑐 |A) =
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 )
• 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 𝐵𝑐 =
𝑃(𝐵𝑐 )
 Ex: If 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 = 0.6, 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 0.9. Find 𝑷 𝑨 𝐵𝑐
0.9
0.6
𝑷 𝑨∩𝐵𝑐
𝑷 𝑨𝐵 = 𝑐
𝑷(𝐵𝑐 )

𝑷 𝑨 𝐵𝑐 =𝟎.𝟕
𝟎.𝟔
𝑷 𝑨 𝐵𝑐 = [6/7] 0.3
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 +𝑃 𝐵
0.9 = 0.6 +𝑃 𝐵
Then
𝑃 𝐵 = 0.3 → 𝑃(𝐵𝑐 ) = 0.7
Ex: If 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵𝑐 = 0.6, 𝑃 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 = 0.2. Find 𝑷(𝑩)

𝑷 𝑨∩𝐵𝑐 𝑷 𝑨∩𝐵𝑐
𝑷 𝑨 𝐵𝑐 = 𝟎. 𝟔 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 = 𝟎. 𝟔 𝑷(𝐵𝑐 )
𝑷(𝐵𝑐 ) 𝑷(𝐵 𝑐 )

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 +𝑃 𝐵 0.2
0.8 = 𝟎. 𝟔 𝑷(𝐵𝑐 ) + 𝑃 𝐵 0.8 = 𝟎. 𝟔 (1- 𝑃 𝐵 ) + 𝑃 𝐵

0.8 = 𝟎. 𝟔 -0.6𝑃 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐵 0.2 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝑃 𝐵 0.5=𝑃 𝐵

𝑃 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 = 0.2 Then
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 0.8
• Ex: If 𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵. Find 𝑷(𝑩|𝑨)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃 𝐴
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 =
𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
A B
𝑷(𝑨)

𝑷(𝑨)
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 = 𝑷 𝑩𝑨 =𝟏
𝑷(𝑨)

• Show that : If A, B are disjoint events then 𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝟏

𝑷 𝑨𝒄 ∩ 𝑩 𝑷 𝑩 − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) 𝑷 𝑩 −𝟎
𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝟏
𝑷(𝑩) 𝑷(𝑩) 𝑷(𝑩)

• Show that 𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝟏 − 𝑷 𝑨 𝑩
𝑷 𝑨𝒄 ∩ 𝑩 𝑷 𝑩 − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) 𝑷 𝑩 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = −
𝑷(𝑩) 𝑷(𝑩) 𝑷(𝑩) 𝑷(𝑩)

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) 𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝟏 − 𝑷 𝑨 𝑩
𝑷 𝑨′ 𝑩 = 𝟏 −
𝑷(𝑩)
• Show that: If 𝑷 𝑨 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑩 𝑨 then 𝑷 𝑨 = 𝑷(𝑩)

If 𝑷 𝑨 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑩 𝑨 𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩) 𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩) 𝑷 𝑨 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )=𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)𝑷(𝑩) then 𝑷 𝑨 = 𝑷(𝑩)

𝑷(𝑩)
= 𝑷(𝑨)

• Show that: 𝑷 𝑨𝑩 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 𝑩

𝑷((𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) ∩ 𝑩) 𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
𝑷 𝑨𝑩 𝑩 = 𝑷(𝑩)
=𝑷 𝑨 𝑩
𝑷(𝑩)

• Show that: If 𝑷 𝑨 > 0, 𝑃 𝑩 > 0 and 𝑷 𝑩 < 𝑃 𝑩 𝑨 then 𝑷 𝑨 < 𝑃 𝑨 𝑩

 It is interesting to note that conditional probability satisfies the axioms for a
probability function, namely, with 𝑷(𝑩) > 0,
• 𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) ≥ 𝟎;
• 𝑷 𝑩 𝑩 = 𝟏;
• If A1 , A2 , A3 , … are mutually exclusive events, then
𝑷 𝑨₁ ∪ 𝑨₂ ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝑨𝑘 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨₁ 𝑩 + 𝑷(𝑨₂|𝑩 + ⋯ + 𝑷(𝑨𝑘|𝑩)

 The multiplication rule can be extended to three or more events.

𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 = 𝑷 𝑨 𝑷 𝑩 𝑨 𝑷(𝑪|𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)

𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 = 𝑷 𝑩 𝑷 𝑨 𝑩 𝑷(𝑪|𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)

𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 = 𝑷 𝑪 𝑷 𝑨 𝑪 𝑷(𝑩|𝑨 ∩ 𝑪)
Consider flipping a coin twice. What is the probability of getting two heads?
So, P(two heads) = P(HH) = 1/4 =P(𝐻𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 ) 𝑃 𝐻𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 | 𝐻𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡
Sample Space:
HH HT TH TT

𝑃 𝐻𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 | 𝐻𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡

P(𝐻𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 )
𝑃 𝑇𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 | 𝐻𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 P(first toss is head)

P(the second toss is head

𝑃 𝐻𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 | 𝑇𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡
given that the first toss is
P(𝑇𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 ) head)

𝑃 𝑇𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 | 𝑇𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡
Q1. 3 - 4 . Two cards are drawn successively and without replacement from an ordinary deck of
playing cards. Compute the probability of drawing
(a) Two hearts 𝑷 𝑯𝑯 =
𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟐 𝟏 𝟏𝟑𝑷𝟐 𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟐
= = =
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟏 𝟏𝟕 𝟓𝟐𝑷𝟐 𝟓𝟐𝑪𝟐

=P(𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 ) 𝑃 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 | 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡

13 spade 13 spade
13 diamond 13 diamond
13 heart 12 heart
13 club 13 club

52 cards 51 cards

(b)A heart on the first draw and a club on the second draw 𝑷 𝑯𝑪 = 13 spade 13 spade
13 diamond 13 diamond
𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑𝑷𝟏 𝟏𝟑𝑷𝟏 13 heart 12 heart
=
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟒
=
𝟓𝟐𝑷𝟐 13 club 13 club

52 cards 51 cards
(c) A heart on the first draw and an ace on the second draw

𝐴𝑆 ,12 spade
𝐴𝐷 ,12 diamond 3
=P(𝐴𝐻 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 ) 𝑃 𝐴𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 |𝐴𝐻 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡
12 heart 51
1 𝐴𝐶 ,12 club
52
𝐴𝑆 ,12 spade
𝐴𝐷 ,12 diamond
51 cards
𝐴𝐻 ,12 heart
𝐴𝐶 ,12 club
12
𝐴𝑆 ,12 spade
52 cards 52
𝐴𝐷 ,12 diamond 4
𝑃 𝐴𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 |𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝑐𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡
𝑃(𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐴𝑐𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 ) 𝐴𝐻 ,11 heart 51
𝐴𝐶 ,12 club

𝑃 𝐻 ∩ 1 = 𝑃 𝐻1,1 + 𝑃 𝐻~1, 1
= 𝑃 𝐻1 𝑃 1 𝐻1 + 𝑃 𝐻~1 𝑃 1 𝐻~1
1 3 12 4 1
= + =
52 51 52 51 52
Example :
Four cards are to be dealt successively at random and without replacement from an ordinary
deck of playing cards. The probability of receiving, in order, a spade, a heart, a diamond, and a
club is
spade, a heart, a diamond, and a club

𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟑 × 𝟏𝟑
× × 𝑃 4𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑏 |1𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒 ∩ 2𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 ∩ 3𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟏 𝟓𝟎 𝟒𝟗

𝑃(1𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒) 𝑃 3𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑 |1𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒 ∩ 2𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡

𝑃 2𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 |1𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒

The probability of receiving, in order, a spade, a spade, a heart and a heart

𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟑 𝟏𝟐
× × ×
𝟓𝟐 𝟓𝟏 𝟓𝟎 𝟒𝟗
Example
A grade school boy has five blue and four white marbles in his left pocket and four blue and five
white marbles in his right pocket. If he transfers one marble at random from his left to his right
pocket, what is the probability of his then drawing a blue marble from his right pocket? For
notation, let BL, BR, and WL denote drawing blue from left pocket, blue from right pocket, and white
from left pocket, respectively.
𝑷 𝑩𝑹 = 𝑷 𝑩𝑳 ∩ 𝑩𝑹 + 𝑷 𝑾𝑳 ∩ 𝑩𝑹
5 blue 4 blue = 𝑷 𝑩𝑳 𝑷 𝑩𝑹 𝑩𝑳 + 𝑷 𝑾𝑳 𝑷 𝑩𝑹 𝑾𝑳
4 white 5 white 𝟓 𝟓 𝟒 𝟒 𝟒𝟏
= ∙ + ∙ =
𝟗 𝟏𝟎 𝟗 𝟏𝟎 𝟗𝟎
Left Right

4 blue+1blue 𝟓
𝑷 𝑩𝑹 𝑩𝑳 =𝟏𝟎
𝟓 5 white
𝑷 𝑩𝑳 =𝟗
5 blue
4 white Right
𝟒
𝑷 𝑾𝑳 =
𝟗 4 blue 𝟒
Left 5 white+1 white 𝑷 𝑩𝑹 𝑾𝑳 =𝟏𝟎
1.3-7(same as 1-3.5). An urn contains four colored balls: two orange and two blue. Two
balls are selected at random without replacement, and you are told that at least one of
them is orange. What is the probability that the other ball is also orange?

S={ 𝑂, 𝑂 , 𝑂, 𝐵 , 𝐵, 𝑂 ,(𝐵, 𝐵)} if the order important

S={ 2 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 , (𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 , 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙),(2 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)} if the order not important

S={Zero orange ball, one orange ball, two orange ball}

𝑝 two orange ball one orange ball, two orange ball)=p(2 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠 ∩ 1 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 , 2 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠 )
𝑃 2 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠
=
1 − 𝑃(𝑧𝑒𝑟𝑜 𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠)
b b
2𝐶2/4𝐶2 1
= =5
1−2𝐶2/4𝐶2

o o
Example: A bowl contains 7 blue chips & 3 red chips. Two chips are to be drawn without
replacement. Compute the probability that the first drawn result is a red (say A) & the second is
blue (say B)

7 blue 7 blue P(the first drawn result is a red (say A) & the
3 red 2 red second is blue (say B))= 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)=P(A).P(B|A)
= (3\10)(7\9)
the first drawn result is a red
P(first red)=3\10 the second is blue
P(blue | first red)=7\9

1. 3 - 10. A single card is drawn at random from each of six well-shuffled decks of playing
cards. Let A be the event that all six cards drawn are different.
( a ) Find P(A)
52 51 50 49 48 47
= 0.74141
52 52 52 52 52 52
( b ) Find the probability that at least two of the drawn cards match
S={all six cards are different zero match, two cards match, three cards match, four
cards match, five cards match, all the cards are the same}

A p(at least two of the drawn cards match)

= 1 − 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.25859
 Example 1.3-5:If you have 25 balloons of which 10 are yellow, 8 are red and 7 are green. A
player throws darts at the balloons to win a prize. Given that the first balloon hit is yellow. What
is the probability that the next balloon hit is also yellow?

10 Yellow
8 Red P(the second balloon is yellow | first balloon hit is yellow)
7 Green 9\24

the first balloon is yellow

10\25

9 Yellow
8 Red
7 Green

P(first balloon hit is yellow and the second balloon is yellow)

P(first balloon hit is yellow) P(the second balloon is yellow | first balloon hit is yellow)
10\25 9\24
Example:
From an ordinary deck of playing cards, cards are to be drawn successively at random and
without replacement. Find the probability that the third spade appears on the sixth draw.
Let A be the event of two spades in the first five cards drawn
Let B be the event of a spade on the sixth draw

3𝑟𝑑 𝑆

𝟏𝟏
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 = = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟒
𝟒𝟕
𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑠
𝟏𝟑 𝟑𝟗
𝟐 𝟑
𝑷 𝑨 = 𝟓𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟒
𝟓

The desired probability, 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 , is the product of those numbers:

𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟒 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟒
Q1. 3 - 6 . A researcher finds that, of 982 men who died in 2002, 221 died from some heart disease. Also,
of the 982 men, 334 had at least one parent who had some heart disease. Of the latter 334 men, 111 died
from some heart disease. A man is selected from the group of 982. Given that neither of his parents had
some heart disease, find the conditional probability that this man died of some heart disease.

A : at least one parent who had some heart disease

B : died from some heart disease.

at least one parent who had some heart disease?

Yes=A No (𝐴𝑐 ) Total

Died=B 111 110 221

Not= (𝑩𝑐 ) 223 538 761 982-221

Total 334 648 982

334-111
982-334
110
𝑃 𝐷𝑖𝑒𝑑 (𝐵) 𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠(𝐴𝑐 ) = = 0.169753
648
1. 3 - 12. You are a member of a class of 18 students. A bowl contains 18 chips: 1 blue and 17
red. Each student is to take 1 chip from the bowl without replacement. The student who draws
the blue chip is guaranteed an A for the course.
( a ) If you have a choice of drawing first, fifth, or last, which position would you choose? Justify
your choice on the basis of probability.

𝟏 1 blue
𝑷 𝟏𝒔𝒕 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = B
𝟏𝟖 17 red
𝟏𝟕
𝟏 𝟏 R
𝑷 𝟓𝒕𝒉 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = 𝟒
= R R R B
𝟏𝟖 𝟏𝟒 𝟏𝟖
𝟒
17 16 15 14 1
= ∗
18 17 16 15 14 R R R
𝟏𝟕 R B
𝟏 𝟏
𝑷 𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = 𝟏𝟕
= ; It doesn’t matter
𝟏𝟖
𝟏𝟕
𝟏 𝟏𝟖 17 times

( b ) Suppose the bowl contains 2 blue and 16 red chips. What position would you now choose?
𝟏𝟔 𝟐 𝟏𝟔 𝟐 𝟏𝟔 𝟐
𝟐 𝟑 𝟏 𝟏 𝟒 𝟎 𝟐 𝟐 𝟏𝟔 𝟏 𝟏 𝟐
𝑷 𝟏𝒔𝒕 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = ; 𝑷 𝟓𝒕𝒉 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = 𝟏𝟖
+ 𝟏𝟖
= ; 𝑷 𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = 𝟏𝟖
=
𝟏𝟖 𝟏𝟒 𝟏𝟒 𝟏𝟖 𝟏 𝟏𝟖
𝟒 𝟒 𝟏𝟕
( b ) Suppose the bowl contains 2 blue and 16 red chips. What position would you now choose?

𝟐
𝑷 𝟏𝒔𝒕 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = B
𝟏𝟖

𝟏𝟔 𝟐 𝟏𝟔 𝟐
𝟑 𝟏 𝟏 𝟒 𝟎 𝟐 𝟐 2 blue
𝑷 𝟓𝒕𝒉 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = + =
𝟏𝟖 𝟏𝟒 𝟏𝟖 𝟏𝟒 𝟏𝟖 16 red
𝟒 𝟒

R R R R B
4 red

R R R R B
3 red and 1 blue

𝟏𝟔 𝟐
𝟏 𝟐
𝑷 𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒘 = 𝟏𝟔 𝟏
𝟏𝟖 = B
𝟏 𝟏𝟖
𝟏𝟕
One B and 16 R
(HW)1. 3 - 5 . Suppose that the alleles for eye color for a certain male fruit fly are (R, W) and the
alleles for eye color for the mating female fruit fly are (R, W), where R and W represent red and
white, respectively. Their offspring receive one allele for eye color from each parent.
(a) Define the sample space of the alleles for eye color for the offspring.
𝑺 = { 𝑹, 𝑹 , 𝑹, 𝑾 , 𝑾, 𝑹 , 𝑹, 𝑹 }

(b) Assume that each of the four possible outcomes has equal probability. If an offspring ends
up with either two white alleles or one red and one white allele for eye color, its eyes will look
white. Given that an offspring’s eyes look white, what is the conditional probability that it has
two white alleles for eye color?
𝑷 𝑾,𝑾 𝟏/𝟒 𝟏
Let 𝐵 = { 𝑾, 𝑾 , 𝑹, 𝑾 , 𝑾, 𝑹 }, 𝑷 𝑾, 𝑾 𝑩 = = =
𝑷(𝑩) 𝟑/𝟒 𝟑

Note that: order is important