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ubs/ft/wp/wp9739.pdf
Lợi nhuận được chuẩn hóa
Phương pháp sử dụng để chuẩn hóa lợi nhuận 1
Nếu sử dụng suất sinh lợi trên vốn bình quân lịch sử
Suất sinh lợi trên vốn trước thuế bình quân lịch sử #DIV/0!
Page
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
Hiện tại 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Expected growth rate 23.14% 23.14% 23.14% 23.14% 23.14% 23.14% 23.14% 22.32% 21.50%
Accumulated growth rate 123.14% 151.63% 186.72% 229.92% 283.13% 348.64% 429.31% 525.13% 638.03%
Reinvestment Ratio 738.45% 738.45% 738.45% 738.45% 738.45% 738.45% 738.45% 642.36% 546.27%
EBIT 260,138.28 320,331.94 394,453.87 485,726.95 598,119.81 736,519.36 906,943.33 1,116,801.87 1,366,063.46 1,659,758.34
Tax rate 21.50% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
EBIT * (1 - Tax rate) 204,208.55 256,265.55 315,563.10 388,581.56 478,495.85 589,215.49 725,554.66 893,441.50 1,092,850.77 1,327,806.67
- (CAPEX- Depreciation) (220,349.09) 1,525,792.72 1,878,847.46 2,313,595.89 2,848,941.20 3,508,160.62 4,319,917.49 5,319,507.61 5,501,954.62 5,464,724.84
- Change in Working Capital 1,757,146.71 366,606.07 451,435.42 555,893.52 684,522.29 842,914.61 1,037,957.48 1,278,131.52 1,518,113.49 1,788,731.97
FCFF (1,332,589.07) (1,636,133.24) (2,014,719.78) (2,480,907.85) (3,054,967.65) (3,761,859.73) ### ### ### ###
WACC 18.74% 18.74% 18.74% 18.74% 18.74% 18.74% 18.74% 18.74% 18.74%
Accumulated Cost of Capital 1.1874 1.4098 1.6740 1.9876 2.3600 2.8022 3.3272 3.9506 4.6908
Present Value (1,377,955.56) (1,429,051.04) (1,482,041.16) (1,536,996.19) (1,593,989.00) ### ### ### ###
g 17.40%
Reinvestment rate of the period 65.83%
FCFF15 1,273,051.21
Cost of Equity 26.74%
Equity ratio 68.92%
Page
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
WACC 18.74%
Terminal value 95,267,957.63
Định giá
PV of FCFF (15,838,066.71)
PV of Terminal value 8,605,546.84
Value/share (3,608.74)
Page
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
ºººº
10 11 12 13 14 End year
20.68% 19.86% 19.04% 18.22% 17.40%
Page
Industry Number of firms Levered Beta Unlevered Beta Std Dev: Equity Market D/E Market Debt/Capital
Advertising 36 0.99 0.89 71.29% 22.25% 18.20%
Aerospace/Defense 73 0.92 0.84 49.02% 20.81% 17.23%
Air Transport 56 1.38 1.17 50.65% 42.16% 29.66%
Apparel 64 0.93 0.89 47.69% 13.39% 11.81%
Auto & Truck 31 1.29 0.72 38.79% ### 55.71%
Auto Parts 64 0.99 0.77 51.45% 52.49% 34.42%
Bank 550 0.59 0.47 21.57% 54.59% 35.31%
Bank (Canadian) 7 0.72 0.70 15.60% 10.07% 9.15%
Bank (Foreign) 4 1.78 NA 28.51% NA NA
Bank (Midwest) 37 0.79 0.61 18.85% 61.47% 38.07%
Beverage (Alcoholic) 27 0.66 0.56 27.93% 23.56% 19.07%
Beverage (Soft Drin 21 0.71 0.66 27.56% 13.63% 11.99%
Biotechnology 105 1.56 1.61 69.03% 4.39% 4.20%
Building Materials 47 0.98 0.91 48.71% 33.54% 25.12%
Cable TV 23 1.76 1.35 68.98% 38.89% 28.00%
Canadian Energy 14 0.73 0.67 28.94% 14.27% 12.49%
Cement & Aggregate 13 1.02 0.87 35.50% 26.35% 20.86%
Chemical (Basic) 24 0.98 0.83 37.80% 27.64% 21.65%
Chemical (Diversifie 36 0.97 0.90 39.19% 16.32% 14.03%
Chemical (Specialty) 94 0.98 0.87 41.39% 21.54% 17.72%
Coal 16 1.75 1.60 44.19% 15.96% 13.76%
Computer Software/ 425 1.84 2.00 79.32% 3.56% 3.44%
Computers/Periphera 148 1.99 2.14 73.25% 6.68% 6.26%
Diversified Co. 134 0.87 0.79 38.78% 22.60% 18.43%
Drug 334 1.59 1.60 75.90% 9.36% 8.56%
E-Commerce 60 2.23 2.50 91.16% 3.86% 3.72%
Educational Services 37 1.09 1.17 53.20% 2.65% 2.58%
Electric Util. (Centra 24 0.94 0.63 24.70% 69.87% 41.13%
Electric Utility (East) 29 0.87 0.63 21.57% 56.29% 36.02%
Electric Utility (West 16 0.97 0.71 24.03% 58.80% 37.03%
Electrical Equipment 94 1.52 1.02 57.43% 72.60% 42.06%
Electronics 186 1.49 1.54 59.57% 14.54% 12.70%
Entertainment 101 1.30 1.12 44.30% 26.12% 20.71%
Entertainment Tech 31 2.18 2.55 78.35% 3.38% 3.27%
Environmental 96 0.87 0.62 60.89% 48.22% 32.53%
Financial Svcs. (Div. 269 0.89 0.47 63.64% ### 56.97%
Food Processing 123 0.72 0.63 32.48% 22.39% 18.29%
Food Wholesalers 21 0.72 0.62 39.55% 29.15% 22.57%
Foreign Electronics 10 1.03 1.07 27.80% 23.76% 19.20%
Furn/Home Furnishi 38 0.87 0.75 39.63% 30.22% 23.20%
Grocery 19 1.04 0.84 37.59% 39.11% 28.12%
Healthcare Informat 34 1.22 1.22 62.92% 10.30% 9.34%
Home Appliance 14 0.84 0.82 33.25% 18.39% 15.53%
Homebuilding 41 0.98 0.71 35.90% 61.74% 38.17%
Hotel/Gaming 84 0.77 0.62 41.57% 33.19% 24.92%
Household Products 31 0.79 0.71 33.99% 18.46% 15.59%
Human Resources 35 1.22 1.26 48.32% 7.87% 7.29%
Industrial Services 230 1.01 0.92 62.58% 19.71% 16.47%
Information Services 41 1.02 0.99 28.82% 8.15% 7.53%
Insurance (Life) 40 0.93 0.98 27.07% 13.15% 11.62%
Insurance (Prop/Cas 97 0.83 0.88 29.69% 12.40% 11.03%
Internet 329 2.30 2.46 92.04% 2.28% 2.23%
Investment Co. 20 0.75 0.39 17.89% ### 50.94%
Investment Co.(Fore 15 1.21 1.19 27.49% 4.09% 3.93%
Machinery 139 1.01 0.84 44.38% 31.26% 23.82%
Manuf. Housing/RV 19 0.99 0.96 45.76% 19.00% 15.97%
Maritime 46 0.86 0.58 38.53% 60.09% 37.53%
Medical Services 186 0.94 0.93 56.24% 17.47% 14.87%
Medical Supplies 279 1.11 1.12 53.67% 6.47% 6.07%
Metal Fabricating 37 1.01 0.94 43.86% 15.88% 13.70%
Metals & Mining (Div 82 1.04 0.99 56.30% 8.74% 8.04%
Natural Gas (Distrib. 30 0.73 0.52 24.43% 60.93% 37.86%
Natural Gas (Div.) 34 1.01 0.80 33.43% 40.33% 28.74%
Newspaper 18 0.76 0.63 26.47% 30.08% 23.13%
Office Equip/Supplie 26 1.02 0.93 40.98% 24.34% 19.57%
Oilfield Svcs/Equip. 110 1.05 1.01 45.59% 11.72% 10.49%
Packaging & Contain 36 0.87 0.64 37.78% 55.22% 35.58%
Paper/Forest Produc 42 0.84 0.60 33.35% 56.50% 36.10%
Petroleum (Int 30 0.96 0.95 39.30% 9.00% 8.26%
Petroleum (Producin 178 0.88 0.80 45.37% 13.69% 12.04%
Pharmacy Services 20 0.93 0.91 36.23% 9.04% 8.29%
Power 41 2.39 2.08 68.33% 17.83% 15.13%
Precious Metals 67 0.90 0.88 59.62% 7.10% 6.63%
Precision Instrument 104 1.71 1.84 59.48% 8.97% 8.23%
Publishing 50 0.89 0.73 35.07% 32.54% 24.55%
R.E.I.T. 143 0.77 0.50 21.76% 63.99% 39.02%
Railroad 20 0.96 0.79 28.14% 29.86% 23.00%
Recreation 84 1.12 1.01 46.30% 20.04% 16.70%
Restaurant 81 0.80 0.74 36.83% 15.21% 13.20%
Retail (Special Lines 164 0.98 1.02 48.78% 8.43% 7.78%
Retail Automotive 15 1.04 0.89 34.86% 34.98% 25.91%
Retail Building Suppl 9 0.95 0.92 28.42% 5.82% 5.50%
Retail Store 51 0.94 0.87 40.93% 16.61% 14.25%
Securities Brokerage 32 1.29 0.78 32.55% ### 60.84%
Semiconductor 124 2.92 3.19 74.84% 4.97% 4.74%
Semiconductor Equi 14 2.95 3.40 57.31% 7.53% 7.00%
Shoe 24 1.08 1.15 42.19% 3.64% 3.51%
Steel (General) 30 1.16 1.13 45.31% 14.62% 12.76%
Steel (Integrated) 16 1.50 1.39 69.11% 23.62% 19.11%
Telecom. Equipment 136 2.35 2.63 76.28% 5.28% 5.01%
Telecom. Services 173 1.43 1.15 70.94% 32.64% 24.61%
Thrift 248 0.56 0.54 25.12% 22.62% 18.44%
Tire & Rubber 10 0.96 0.90 27.16% 14.18% 12.42%
Tobacco 11 0.79 0.73 26.72% 17.06% 14.57%
Toiletries/Cosmetics 21 0.83 0.76 40.97% 18.06% 15.30%
Trucking 38 0.98 0.81 38.73% 40.58% 28.87%
Utility (Foreign) 6 1.00 0.67 27.58% 62.76% 38.56%
Water Utility 16 0.73 0.54 24.26% 48.86% 32.82%
Wireless Networking 73 2.41 2.22 84.34% 17.70% 15.04%
Other 1 1.06 1.05 14.47% 2.45% 2.39%
Market 7661 1.14 0.98 50.54% 32.11% 24.30%
ROE ROC Effective Tax Rate Pre-tax Operating MarginAfter-tax Operating Margin Net Margin Cap Ex/ Depreciation
14.26% 12.99% 11.96% 15.31% 10.07% 4.57% 68.72%
17.28% 13.76% 21.77% 9.88% 6.90% 5.61% 100.08%
-7.54% 38.40% 19.40% 12.57% 9.31% 2.59% 133.35%
15.21% 15.67% 21.60% 11.98% 7.80% 5.38% 110.65%
27.61% 11.04% 18.90% 10.96% 8.81% 2.59% 91.21%
-3.09% 17.56% 18.93% 6.04% 4.38% 0.11% 107.86%
20.59% NA 27.81% NA NA NA NA
22.03% NA 24.41% NA NA NA NA
NA NA 0.00% NA NA NA NA
27.87% NA 29.14% NA NA NA NA
22.09% 14.41% 15.30% 21.46% 14.07% 9.99% 113.05%
35.51% 22.45% 17.74% 20.80% 15.07% 11.19% 107.14%
12.03% 14.15% 4.41% 29.59% 19.31% 16.09% 166.70%
### ### 23.55% 9.32% 6.81% 3.94% 130.36%
1.88% 10.34% 13.90% 31.47% 20.96% 4.12% 82.49%
22.63% 23.10% 30.19% 34.24% 22.61% 9.03% 222.05%
20.78% 16.97% 26.29% 22.52% 17.84% 15.25% 98.90%
29.72% 20.11% 13.31% 14.41% 10.03% 6.84% 84.30%
23.34% 24.06% 25.87% 22.43% 14.16% 8.44% 95.99%
14.24% 18.43% 19.08% 14.88% 10.90% 5.13% 94.50%
29.08% 27.48% 11.64% 19.47% 16.18% 11.55% 150.84%
39.67% 34.78% 10.36% 23.49% 16.32% 13.39% 72.26%
36.69% 30.52% 7.84% 9.91% 7.49% 4.38% 84.81%
18.00% 15.11% 18.87% 14.42% 10.30% 6.58% 107.32%
29.16% 23.56% 6.09% 30.58% 22.62% 15.75% 59.84%
36.14% 28.03% 9.38% 12.46% 9.33% 5.73% 107.69%
32.40% 36.96% 20.95% 20.11% 12.94% 8.23% 144.19%
13.89% 11.20% 26.93% 22.11% 15.35% 7.92% 152.97%
12.39% 11.32% 28.01% 24.07% 16.91% 8.05% 133.43%
12.26% 12.24% 28.87% 22.74% 16.08% 6.45% 159.57%
32.55% 18.17% 15.47% 46.02% 37.45% 11.72% 161.88%
9.21% 13.96% 13.04% 6.86% 5.30% 2.89% 94.57%
7.48% 9.43% 16.69% 23.31% 15.23% 8.68% 81.68%
### 1.22% 10.21% 2.87% 0.49% -9.57% 83.78%
10.49% 12.07% 9.45% 20.57% 13.65% 5.26% 99.38%
25.88% NA 19.72% 145.44% 103.92% 36.45% 120.43%
21.96% 16.74% 19.60% 12.34% 8.65% 5.36% 92.08%
17.71% 15.73% 23.66% 5.90% 3.88% 2.45% 177.83%
8.73% 11.88% 41.66% 10.06% 5.45% 2.40% 102.71%
15.34% 14.03% 26.93% 11.05% 7.36% 4.59% 114.65%
14.54% 16.91% 23.54% 4.98% 3.52% 1.36% 120.63%
11.92% 20.98% 10.07% 15.71% 11.61% 3.86% 80.22%
33.55% 27.79% 14.69% 10.98% 7.74% 4.80% 105.92%
28.95% 14.43% 23.77% 15.98% 10.13% 8.56% 258.96%
13.72% 10.04% 14.22% 22.52% 15.71% 8.25% 231.00%
20.41% 15.18% 24.86% 20.87% 14.82% 11.11% 98.52%
15.55% 16.81% 25.27% 5.85% 3.74% 2.46% 88.04%
15.25% 14.86% 16.91% 9.00% 6.03% 2.88% 114.91%
20.09% 20.03% 18.42% 23.67% 16.23% 11.62% 67.54%
15.32% NA 23.66% NA NA NA NA
9.44% NA 18.73% NA NA NA NA
18.33% NA 4.76% 19.94% 13.29% 11.22% 105.32%
### 2.87% 0.00% 15.94% 15.94% 34.45% 21.69%
5.26% 5.45% 2.49% 22.07% 18.86% 34.59% 65.22%
19.31% 14.87% 20.52% 12.67% 9.01% 6.62% 113.36%
5.56% 9.25% 19.77% 3.58% 1.80% 2.36% 104.30%
21.68% 15.73% 5.91% 29.13% 26.47% 14.57% 424.65%
20.91% 19.74% 17.17% 13.47% 8.67% 5.54% 113.60%
29.56% 25.40% 13.16% 12.57% 9.04% 7.49% 104.12%
18.81% 16.98% 24.89% 11.97% 8.08% 6.16% 125.61%
33.60% 26.39% 7.81% 30.83% 22.22% 7.79% 201.99%
11.14% 10.81% 30.18% 14.54% 9.59% 4.41% 155.77%
18.98% 14.17% 22.04% 27.22% 18.24% 12.50% 205.74%
13.36% 10.95% 24.85% 23.81% 14.61% 10.30% 95.40%
20.22% 15.27% 29.99% 9.70% 6.58% 4.65% 81.07%
18.09% 18.18% 21.42% 16.02% 12.08% 11.60% 158.14%
12.96% 13.79% 25.40% 11.85% 8.42% 2.75% 81.92%
8.55% 13.39% 15.72% 14.67% 11.47% 3.48% 75.14%
### ### 29.47% 16.50% 9.85% ### 170.40%
18.82% 24.58% 14.79% 44.02% 31.30% 15.55% 252.70%
14.50% 14.65% 27.16% 5.90% 3.76% 2.82% 165.50%
### 9.78% 6.84% 16.86% 13.20% -2.95% 114.70%
2.88% 11.52% 6.54% 31.45% 23.49% 16.05% 195.45%
19.60% 22.95% 17.07% 14.58% 11.38% 7.33% 59.29%
19.45% 16.50% 18.02% 16.05% 10.87% 4.21% 84.30%
12.83% 7.83% 1.41% 37.80% 31.59% ### 335.11%
12.21% 12.66% 23.61% 28.53% 19.28% 14.20% 169.18%
16.84% 16.44% 18.03% 19.77% 16.18% 9.84% 162.70%
23.18% 20.90% 19.13% 17.22% 11.93% 7.08% 162.59%
26.29% 27.06% 23.42% 10.23% 6.70% 4.72% 126.85%
18.80% 13.99% 34.85% 7.65% 4.85% 3.10% 175.51%
21.72% 21.80% 27.35% 13.01% 8.13% 7.35% 291.39%
19.80% 15.58% 21.10% 7.21% 4.67% 3.71% 210.31%
### 18.06% 21.27% 62.12% 42.94% 15.12% 104.59%
24.32% 33.25% 10.47% 32.42% 25.44% 12.84% 105.78%
26.75% 24.14% 21.31% 20.03% 15.75% 18.03% 94.14%
30.65% 29.04% 28.93% 14.05% 9.17% 7.97% 118.68%
33.25% 27.08% 29.85% 14.14% 9.35% 8.75% 109.57%
32.21% 28.79% 18.09% 19.12% 14.64% 6.55% 170.97%
52.17% 36.09% 10.38% 16.83% 12.57% 11.23% 81.25%
6.14% 16.11% 12.90% 33.53% 25.24% 9.68% 69.42%
13.77% NA 25.14% NA NA NA NA
19.08% 18.45% 5.94% 11.67% 8.26% 6.53% 132.00%
39.91% 26.08% 26.74% 17.45% 12.30% 8.60% 108.94%
42.69% 23.32% 20.95% 14.53% 10.02% 3.95% 115.00%
20.00% 18.68% 30.50% 15.20% 9.47% 4.81% 320.61%
12.17% 10.96% 11.52% 32.17% 24.68% 8.29% 116.01%
9.60% 10.48% 29.78% 41.57% 28.02% 11.46% 221.12%
-0.38% 10.55% 9.93% 16.53% 12.71% 1.77% 61.04%
### ### 0.00% 20.29% 20.29% ### NA
21.24% 17.05% 16.40% 22.60% 15.87% 8.44% 119.40%
Non-cash WC/ Revenues Payout Ratio Reinvestment Rate Sales/Capital
-17.70% 21.10% -7.08% 1.29
-1.88% 31.50% -5.58% 1.99
-8.82% 92.84% 27.68% 4.13
16.60% 21.55% -4.94% 2.01
33.72% 15.61% -9.00% 1.25
7.57% NA -0.28% 4.01
NA 46.94% 0.00% NA
NA 47.13% 0.00% NA
NA NA NA NA
NA 53.50% 0.00% NA
7.96% 37.78% 1.56% 1.02
0.42% 45.28% 1.30% 1.49
2.92% 0.00% 22.71% 0.73
5.51% 16.12% 1.13% 20.49
-12.03% 16.02% -8.69% 0.49
-6.05% 22.62% 64.58% 1.02
7.07% 23.95% -4.52% 0.95
10.70% 43.92% -13.82% 2.00
9.94% 35.13% -8.93% 1.70
11.47% 40.84% -7.35% 1.69
2.15% 46.19% 19.80% 1.70
-9.11% 20.34% -4.63% 2.13
-0.99% 14.33% -6.79% 4.08
6.66% 25.50% -2.87% 1.47
7.58% 48.26% -16.04% 1.04
-9.85% 2.36% -27.71% 3.00
-10.56% 2.82% 17.82% 2.86
6.20% 59.14% 23.80% 0.73
3.97% 67.28% 16.47% 0.67
3.37% 48.64% 34.03% 0.76
129.59% 57.48% -14.50% 0.49
11.01% 13.95% -30.09% 2.63
-0.50% 28.27% -5.66% 0.62
-4.96% NA 959.82% 2.52
1.91% 40.34% -5.25% 0.88
108.49% 30.56% -1531.94% 0.09
5.29% 49.29% -3.85% 1.93
0.71% 33.72% 29.36% 4.06
9.02% 34.52% 0.43% 2.18
13.46% 28.37% -7.48% 1.91
-0.21% 20.65% 14.00% 4.80
-1.62% 11.19% -7.29% 1.81
9.47% 24.20% -21.18% 3.59
54.52% 5.65% -23.31% 1.42
-4.45% 36.71% 62.65% 0.64
2.43% 44.27% -0.88% 1.02
5.93% 13.90% -17.11% 4.49
3.95% 22.13% -6.04% 2.46
-1.01% 25.46% -12.85% 1.23
NA 30.24% 0.00% NA
NA 37.17% 0.35% NA
-8.55% 1.15% 7.70% 1.40
-7.09% NA -5.74% 0.18
-13.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29
17.89% 25.27% -10.84% 1.65
7.97% 74.24% -46.99% 5.14
4.41% 44.60% 100.99% 0.59
-3.45% 3.80% 23.06% 2.28
6.52% 29.87% -2.84% 2.81
13.54% 24.15% -3.66% 2.10
7.43% 16.56% 0.40% 1.19
7.70% 72.32% 20.44% 1.13
-1.54% 36.34% 46.92% 0.78
-0.73% 30.73% -2.94% 0.75
9.18% 17.67% -11.53% 2.32
10.18% 21.42% 3.11% 1.50
6.54% 32.29% -14.38% 1.64
9.46% 64.40% -19.86% 1.17
1.28% ### 23.57% 2.68
2.44% 10.44% 42.83% 0.79
4.79% 11.55% -3.80% 3.90
4.38% NA 0.47% 0.74
6.12% 128.79% 42.58% 0.49
7.69% 12.97% -24.27% 2.02
-0.20% 32.76% -13.85% 1.52
160.92% 47.58% -143.81% 0.25
-5.33% 26.05% 34.35% 0.66
0.76% 32.74% 20.54% 1.02
-6.17% 30.34% 27.85% 1.75
5.80% 17.39% 5.01% 4.04
9.64% 5.37% 20.97% 2.88
4.18% 25.66% 39.58% 2.68
2.20% 19.52% 39.68% 3.34
172.76% 16.62% -177.49% 0.42
7.00% 32.12% -1.75% 1.31
20.14% 17.76% -34.87% 1.53
17.09% 21.21% -6.90% 3.17
15.37% 10.81% -20.55% 2.90
14.43% 1.09% -17.11% 1.97
-0.61% 19.62% -5.97% 2.87
-7.96% 109.02% -4.04% 0.64
NA 50.61% 0.00% NA
14.25% 18.07% -9.08% 2.23
0.91% 62.77% 4.66% 2.12
7.71% 29.06% 2.53% 2.33
7.06% 10.04% 134.45% 1.97
-2.39% 57.36% 11.04% 0.44
3.55% 42.04% 49.60% 0.37
5.01% NA -35.08% 0.83
0.00% NA 0.00% 8.00
11.63% 33.27% -135.39% 1.07