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For Beverley & Barry Bromham
and
This is a challenging field because it often concerns processes and patterns that can-
not be directly witnessed. We can’t go back in time to witness the diversification of the
animal kingdom, or make direct observations on the causes of dinosaur extinctions,
nor can we do direct experiments on the latitudinal diversity gradient of species rich-
ness, or manipulate species traits to test their effect on speciation or extinction rates.
But there is a wealth of scientific resources we can draw on to generate hypotheses,
design elegant tests, and provide satisfying answers to many intriguing questions. The
tools used to test hypotheses for patterns of biodiversity include experiments, models,
and statistical analyses, but often the most important tool we have is the ability to
frame a clear question, from which we can make simple predictions that can be put
to robust tests.
Although macroevolution and macroecology are often taught separately, they share
an intellectual framework, rest on many common concepts, and share many analyti-
cal tools. The development of macroevolution and macroecology as fields of scientific
enquiry have been driven by new ways of compiling and analysing data that have allowed
big-picture questions about biodiversity to be tackled. For example, the massive growth
of DNA sequence databases has led to a proliferation of methods for using molecular
phylogenies to understand the origins of lineages and their patterns of diversification.
Molecular data have been combined with global databases of species distributions and
environmental features and with large palaeontological databases to analyse patterns
across large spatial and temporal scales. Most of this ‘big data’ is now freely available
for anyone to explore.
Although many of the new methods are technically complex and analytically sophis-
ticated, the basic principles of sound scientific reasoning and inductive inference are
as important in macroevolution and macroecology as in any other area of science.
Our aim in this book is to introduce you to some of the useful approaches to asking
questions and solving problems in macroevolution and macroecology. The underly-
ing logic of these techniques does not require you to be competent in mathematics,
statistics, or computing (although these intellectual tools may help you frame and
answer questions).
Preface vii
This book takes a case study led approach. Each chapter focuses on one particular ques-
tion as a way of introducing some core concepts in macroevolution and macroecology,
and as a way of exploring some useful sources of data and modes of analysis. This does
not mean that we think these are the only important questions to be asked in macroevo-
lution and macroecology. We have chosen these particular issues because each serves as
a useful focus for thinking about important concepts that run through macroevolution
and macroecology (such as levels of selection or diversification rates), or important ana-
lytical techniques (such as null models or phylogenetic comparative methods). The book
emphasizes the critical appraisal of evidence, techniques, and assumptions in testing
macroevolutionary and macroecological hypotheses, and encourages you to form your
own opinions on important debates.
Each chapter has a number of features designed to help you get the most from your reading.
References
• References provide publication details of studies
1. Bromham L (2016) Testing hypotheses in macroe mentioned in the Case Study.
in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 55: 47–59
2. Sharp PM, Hahn BH (2010) The evolution of HIV-1
AIDS. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
3. Hahn BH, Shaw GM, De Cock KM, Sharp PM (2000
osis: scientific and public health implications. S
607–14.
Preface ix
online resources
www.oup.com/uk/bromham-biodiversity/
Online resources provide lecturers with outlines for discussion-based tutorials and
computer workshops to run in conjunction with a lecture course as well as download-
able figures from the textbook to use in lecture presentations and teaching materials.
Find these at www.oup.com/uk/bromham-biodiversity/
Many case studies in this book utilize analyses of molecular phylogenies. To be an intel-
ligent user of phylogenetic analyses, you need to understand the nature of molecular
data, how phylogenies are produced, and the way that phylogenetic inference is affected
by data selection, methods used, and assumptions made. Although we touch on these
areas in many chapters, we cannot cover phylogenetics in detail in this book. However,
there is a companion text that provides a ‘from the ground up’ description of molecular
phylogenetics, from data generation to phylogenetic inference and analysis. You may
find An Introduction to Molecular Evolution and Phylogenetics (Lindell Bromham, Oxford
University Press, 2016) a useful base from which to gain an understanding of the role of
molecular phylogenies in evolution and ecology.
Acknowledgements
Our greatest thanks are to Gulliver, Alexey, Arkady, and Asha for their patience, curios-
ity and fortitude, and for making life interesting and exciting while this book was being
written, with never a dull moment along the way.
We are grateful to our colleagues for generously giving their time and expertise to read
and comment on chapters, including Tim Barraclough, Graham Budd, Brett Calcott,
Adrian Currie, Peter Godfrey Smith, Simon Ho, Bill Martin, John Matthewson, Arne
Mooers, Matthew Phillips, Ant Poole, Michael Jennions, and Kim Sterelny. Thanks are due
to the MacroEvoEco group at ANU—especially Xia Hua, Zoe Reynolds, Alex Skeels, and
Russell Dinnage—for their encouragement and support. Thanks also to Rampal Etienne
for supplying data, and Rod Peakall, Robin Eckerman, and Russell Dinnage for providing
beautiful photos and figures.
We owe much to Jonathan Crowe for his undaunted enthusiasm and cheerful refusal
to give up on this project, to Lucy Wells for deftly keeping the book on track, against the
odds, and to Sal Moore for her patience and good humour in the production stage. We
could not be more surprised to see this book finally become a reality, thanks to their
persistence.
Contents
Dedicationv
Prefacevi
Acknowledgementsx
Appendix 422
Index 424
What is
macroevolution? 1
What is
macroecology?
Roadmap
Why study macroevolution and macroecology?
Most textbooks on evolution and ecology largely focus on processes
operating within populations. But many of the questions we want to ask
about patterns of biodiversity are not easily answered by only focusing
on the population level, such as: How does novelty arise? What causes
mass extinctions? Does selection act at the level of genes, individuals, spe-
cies, or lineages? Why is biodiversity distributed so unevenly in space?
Questions like these require us to build upon our knowledge of micro-
level processes, but consider them over large spatial scales, long periods
of evolutionary history, and many different evolutionary lineages. Studying
the intellectual development of the fields of macroevolution and mac-
roecology is important for several reasons. Scientific ideas evolve over
time, building on what has come before, so we can’t fully understand
what people think today without appreciating how that point of view
has been constructed by research and contemplation over long periods.
Many of the same areas of debate come up again and again, so a familiar-
ity with history helps us to recognize and evaluate different hypotheses.
This chapter will also show how the individual case studies covered in
the rest of the chapters connect to the bigger picture of evolutionary and
ecological ideas.
microevolutionary processes that occur in every patterns in the distribution of biodiversity that are
population? Or are there mechanisms that operate (at least partly) the product of macroevolutionary
in addition to population processes? Are there any processes.
special macroevolutionary processes that operate
Macroevolution and macroecology are dynamic
only occasionally in particular lineages? We won’t
fields in a constant state of flux. Ideas change, new
attempt to provide a definitive answer to these
evidence emerges, novel analyses are devised. This
questions, because opinions differ quite widely,
makes them exciting fields to study, but it also
as we will discover throughout this book. While
means that we cannot always offer undisputed facts
most scientists consider that macroevolution and
or universally agreed explanations. If you want to
macroecology describe broad-scale patterns gen-
study macroevolution and macroecology, you will
erated by the population-level processes of micro-
need to become accustomed to seeing both sides
evolution and ecology, some scientists think that
of a debate, weighing up competing explanations,
there are special macroevolutionary processes that
and seeking data to test different ideas. That is why
shape biodiversity. Fundamental disagreements
the chapters of this book have been presented as a
such as these make the field of macroevolution
set of questions rather than answers. Learning to
exciting and intellectually stimulating.
ask good questions is the most important skill a
The field of macroecology is closely associated with scientist can have. The second most important skill
macroevolution, to the extent that there is substan- is designing creative and effective tests to compare
tial overlap between the two. That is why the two the plausibility of different explanations (see Case
fields are presented together in this book. We have Study 1). That is why this book emphasizes research
just defined macroevolution (patterns in the distri- tools rather than a catalogue of ‘facts’. Our focus
bution of species across space, time, and lineages) is on the process of scientific enquiry, not just its
by contrasting it with microevolution (change in outcomes. We hope that this book will help give
gene frequencies in populations over generations). you the confidence you need to tackle big ideas, the
Can we do the same for macroecology? You prob- background you need to ask interesting questions,
ably won’t hear people using the term ‘microecol- and the tools you need to seek answers.
ogy’ (unless they are referring to the ecology of
microbial organisms). However, we might contrast
local-scale ecology, which is concerned with inter-
actions among species and their environments
within small areas, with broad-scale ecology which Key points
considers how species diversity is distributed at • Macroevolution and macroecology focus
regional, continental, or global scales. on patterns of biodiversity that are shaped
While macroecology as a scientific discipline is by processes operating over large time-
relatively young, many of the core questions about scales, across wide spatial scales, and
the processes governing the distribution and abun- affecting a wide variety of lineages.
dance of species have been asked for centuries. • Most researchers assume that processes
Most macroecological studies focus on explaining operating at the population level (microev-
current (or recent) patterns in abundance, distri- olution, population ecology) can be scaled
bution, and diversity of species. However, we can’t up to explain long-term and large-scale
understand current species distributions without macroevolutionary and macroecological
an appreciation of both evolutionary and environ- patterns. But some scientists invoke addi-
mental history, and we will expect current patterns tional mechanisms that operate at the lin-
of biodiversity to have been shaped by processes eage or ecosystem level to explain these
that operate over long timescales. So macroecol- phenomena.
ogy can be thought of as the study of present-day
Why study macroevolution and macroecology? 5
Research tools for big questions of the experimental and control lines at different
temperatures. We might use those observations
One of the strengths of scientific enquiry is that to infer that this process of genetic change in the
it can progress with any mixture of empiricism, intui- experimental population would, if left for a very,
tion and formal theory that suits the convenience of the very long time, result in the formation of distinct
investigators. species with specific adaptations to particular
George C. Williams (1966). Adaptation and Natural thermal niches. But, in general, we cannot directly
Selection: A Critique of Some Current Evolutionary observe the evolution of lineages characterized by
Thought. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. major new adaptations, or families with different
numbers of genera, or communities with differ-
Framing and testing hypotheses in large-scale pat- ent numbers of co-adapted species, because these
terns of biodiversity over space, time, and lineages phenomena occur over vast timescales. For the
presents some challenges. To demonstrate this, same reason, we can’t directly observe the geologi-
first consider some examples of research tools used cal process of mountain building or the astronomi-
to study population-level processes. Research into cal phenomena underlying the formation of stars,
evolutionary processes can involve manipulative which occur on timescales much longer than a
experiments, where replicate lines are subjected human lifetime. But we can make inferences about
to different treatments and the effects monitored. how mountains are built or stars born, for exam-
For example, experimental populations of bacteria ple by studying uplift along geological fault lines
exposed to different concentrations of antibiotics or comparing existing stars at different stages of
can be used to test the genetic basis of the evolu- formation. Evolutionary biology, like geology or
tion of resistance. Not all experiments take place astronomy, is sometimes referred to as a ‘histori-
in a laboratory. For example, plots sown with dif- cal science’, because we often wish to explain past
ferent combinations of grass species can be used events that we cannot directly witness.
to measure the relationship between diversity
Because the subjects of analysis in macroevolu-
and biomass production over many years. Many
tion and macroecology cannot be experimentally
studies in evolution and ecology don’t involve any
manipulated, researchers must infer past events
manipulation, but instead rely on close observa-
and processes through observations of the out-
tion of nature. For example, taking blood sam-
comes of those events and processes. These obser-
ples from wild individuals and sequencing their
vations might involve comparing the number or
DNA can reveal high levels of extra-pair mating
type of organisms present in different time periods
in socially monogamous birds, and can be used to
(see Chapter 3), comparing variation in current
estimate fitness by tracking descendants over sev-
species richness between lineages (see Chapter
eral generations.
9), or asking why species richness varies so dra-
Can we use the same kinds of research tools to ask matically between different geographical regions
questions about the patterns of species diversity (see Chapter 10). However, it is important to note
among lineages, over time, or across the earth? that principles of sound experimental design, and
The answer to this question is ‘yes and no’. We can a clear understanding of statistical analysis, are as
use the results of studies like these to infer mecha- fundamental to research in macroevolution and
nisms underlying macroevolutionary change or macroecology as in experimental and field stud-
macroecological patterns, but we could not use ies of population-level processes. This is a point
them to study those processes directly. For exam- we will be emphasizing throughout this book: to
ple, we can breed populations of fruit flies under weigh hypotheses about the origins and patterns
different temperature regimes, and then examine of biodiversity, we need very carefully designed
the changes in genes underlying thermal toler- scientific tests and clearly formulated statistical
ance, and compare the survival and reproduction analyses.
6 1 What is macroevolution? What is macroecology?
(a) (b)
Figure 1.2 Dinosaurs in disguise? In her book The First Fossil Hunters, Adrienne Mayor (2000) suggests that fossilized
remains of extinct animals may have been uncovered by ancient Greeks and interpreted in light of unknown beasts
or mythical beings. For example, she suggests that remains of ceratopsid dinosaurs (a) could have given rise to the
legendary gryphon (b) as large quadrupeds with beaks. She also suggested that revered relics of heroes, such as
Pelops’ shoulder, may have been remains of ice age beasts. Similarly, in other parts of the world, dinosaur bones have
sometimes been interpreted as the remains of dragons.
In the closing decades of the eighteenth century, by exploration, trade, and conquest (Figure 1.3). He
the fossil record became increasingly well stud- developed the principles of comparative anatomy,
ied. The development of geology as a systematic correlating body parts between different species, to
discipline was at least partly driven by economic show how related species were essentially modi-
development. A systematic approach to the study fications of the same basic forms. His skills were
of geological strata was needed to make the such that he could describe a species given a single
exploitation of mineral resources less haphazard. bone, even predicting its mode of life. This allowed
The digging of roads and canals revealed consist- him to reconstruct previously unknown species,
ent strata that could be correlated across differ- such as giant sloths and mastodons, from fossil
ent areas. Not only could the various rock layers bones.
be recognized and correlated over the landscape,
Cuvier argued that these animals represented
but each layer was characterized by particular
extinct species, since such conspicuously large ani-
fossil forms, and the older the stratum, the more
mals had never been seen alive. Thus Cuvier was
the fossils within it differed from today’s species.
one of the first scientists to argue strongly for the
Rapid expansion of fossil collections in the 1800s,
process of extinction. Furthermore, Cuvier showed
and the growing number of professional geologists
that the fauna he studied from the rocks around
and fossil enthusiasts, gave rise to the new field of
Paris was entirely different from the living species
palaeontology.
of the region, demonstrating that whole faunas
One of the most influential naturalists in this had become extinct. This convincing evidence for
field was the French zoologist Georges Cuvier extinction showed that the biological world was
(1769–1832). Cuvier studied the growing collec- not static, but had changed dramatically over time,
tions of specimens of animals at the Paris Natural such that the species of the past were of a different
History Museum, garnered from around the globe kind than those found alive today.
A long history of ideas 9
the nature of biological change in the past was
entirely different from the present. Although
Cuvier saw no evidence that the species them-
selves changed over time, he used comparative
anatomy to demonstrate a pattern of progression
in the fossil record, with fossils in younger strata
being more similar to species alive today. Both of
these ideas—catastrophic extinctions and bio-
logical progression—were initially rejected by one
of the most influential geologists of all time, Sir
Charles Lyell (1797–1875).
will eventually carve out a valley. The uplift that so Darwin created the science of evolutionary
raises the earth by a metre could ultimately raise biology by applying Lyell’s approach to the living
a mountain by degrees. To contrast it with ‘catas world. Darwinian gradualism is uniformitarianism
trophism’, where past changes were attributed to applied to the biological world. By drawing on the
rare extraordinary events of devastating effect, variation observable in living populations, and the
this doctrine of continuous change was referred evident possibilities for differential survival and
to as ‘uniformitarianism’, because it assumed uni- reproduction, Darwin invoked everyday processes
formity of processes operating over time. However, to gradually build large-scale evolutionary change.
uniformitarianism does not require rejection of He suggested that long periods of accumulation
changes of large magnitude or rapidity. For exam- of small heritable changes, each of which may be
ple, the gradual process of erosion of a natural bar- nearly insubstantial, could generate evolutionary
rier over time could lead to a catastrophic flood novelty and diversity. In doing so, he did what no-
occurring in one single terrible moment when the one had done before—he gave a plausible mecha-
barrier is finally breached.2 nism for evolutionary change.
Key points
• Evolutionary change in the biosphere over
Figure 1.4 ‘Believing that it is always best to time has been discussed for centuries.
study some special group, I have, after deliberation • Darwin and Wallace provided the first
taken up domestic pigeons’.5 Darwin used pigeon
plausible mechanism for evolutionary
breeding to illustrate the important principles of his
change, using observations of both wild
theory of descent with modification. He presented
evidence that the hugely varied modern breeds were
and domesticated varieties, combined with
all descended from the wild rock pigeon (centre). information on biogeography and fossil
From conversations with pigeon breeders, he evidence, to argue for continuous gradual
concluded that the breeders selected, knowingly or change through increased representation
unconsciously, breeding stock which carried slight of favourable heritable variations.
variations that distinguished them from others. Over
generations of selective breeding, the differences
between breeds became more and more pronounced
until forms with distinct forms and behaviours were The case for Darwinian gradualism
produced, such as (from top, clockwise) the fantail, Darwin turned the tide of scientific opinion in
shortfaced tumbler, bar, frillback, trumpeter, English favour of evolution. By the time the sixth edition
carrier, Jacobin, scandaroon, pouter, turbit, and nun. of the Origin was published in 1872, Darwin could
These are all breeds that Darwin himself kept at
state that ‘almost every naturalist admits the great
Down House.
principle of evolution’. But his argument for the
application of Lyell’s uniformitarian principles to
explaining evolutionary change was not as widely
populations. Through exhaustive study, he was accepted. Just like Lyell, Darwin proposed that
able to provide evidence that most traits varied processes we can witness today (the continuous
to some extent within natural populations, and production of heritable variation in populations,
no individuals were exactly alike. He proposed and the ‘struggle for existence’ in which some
that, as a result of these naturally occurring dif- variants are more successful than others) were
ferences, some would be more likely to survive sufficient to explain the great changes of the past
and reproduce than others. The offspring of the (the divergence of distinct species from ancestral
successful individuals might inherit their parents’ stock). His revolutionary idea was that the mod-
favourable traits, and thus also have an advantage est changes we can observe at the population level
over other members of the population. By this could gradually accumulate over vast time spans to
A long history of ideas 13
produce substantial differences between species, highest degree probable, doctrine, indeed the
genera, classes, and even kingdoms. It is important only extant hypothesis which is worth anything
to recognize that ‘gradualism’ refers to cumulative in a scientific point of view; but still a hypoth-
change by many steps, and does not necessarily esis, and not yet the theory of species.4
imply a constant rate of change.
Can nature make jumps?
Darwin’s uniformitarian explanation—that observ-
Much of the controversy over Darwin’s hypothesis,
able population-level processes (microevolution)
then and now, concerned his insistence on the
were all that were needed to explain the types
cumulative effect of small changes. Darwin pro-
and distributions of species over space and time
posed that natural selection was the main engine
(macroevolution)—failed to convince even some of
of evolutionary change, but he did not claim that
his staunchest supporters. Some objections arose
it was the only mechanism, and he acknowl-
from contemporary limitations on knowledge of
edged the potential for population-level changes
key concepts such as the principles of heredity. For
due to chance (now referred to as genetic drift).
example, some critics questioned the efficacy of
But Darwin argued firmly that all of the charac-
natural selection to produce permanent changes in
teristic inherited features of organisms, without
populations by suggesting that newly arisen vari-
exception, were the product of the gradual accu-
ants would be diluted away through interbreeding.
mulation of small changes over many, many gen-
But other criticisms were more substantive, par-
erations. Darwin’s insistence that natura non facit
ticularly those that highlighted the difficulties in
saltum (nature does not make jumps) arose from
proving that the processes we can witness today
his commitment to the Lyellian approach to scien-
are responsible for all changes in the past, with-
tific explanation.
out needing to invoke any additional mechanisms.
For example, Thomas Henry Huxley (1825–1895), Just as it was for Lyell, it was important to Darwin
known as ‘Darwin’s bulldog’ for his pugnacious that he did not need to invoke any unknown mecha-
defence of Darwin’s theory of evolution, remained nisms to explain natural features: ‘If it could be dem-
agnostic on the power of natural selection on the onstrated that any complex organ existed, which
grounds that no-one had yet proved that Darwin’s could not possibly have been formed by numerous,
mechanism of gradual accumulation of variation successive, slight modifications, my theory would
within populations could indeed produce all of the absolutely break down. But I can find out no such
features of the natural world: case.’5 Darwin demonstrated that individuals within
populations varied in many ways, and provided
There is no fault to be found with Mr. Dar-
evidence that there was a ‘struggle for existence’
win’s method, then; but it is another ques-
because more individuals were born than survived
tion whether he has fulfilled all the conditions
to adulthood or reproduced. By basing his theory of
imposed by that method. Is it satisfactorily
evolutionary change on the differential propagation
proved, in fact, that species may be originated
of these ever-present variations, Darwin provided a
by selection? that there is such a thing as nat-
hypothesis for descent with modification that relied
ural selection? that none of the phenomena
only on observable phenomena.
exhibited by species is inconsistent with the
origin of species in this way? If these questions Since Darwin’s hypothesis of gradual evolutionary
can be answered in the affirmative, Mr. Darwin’s change relied on the constant presence of herit-
view steps out of the rank of hypotheses into able variation in populations, it rested critically on
those of proved theories; but, so long as the evi- the frequency and type of mutations that arose in
dence at present adduced falls short of enforc- natural populations. Therefore the development of
ing that affirmation, so long, to our minds, must genetics in the early 1900s was of critical importance
the new doctrine be content to remain among to the maturation of evolutionary biology. However,
the former—an extremely valuable, and in the while the early geneticists were largely convinced
14 1 What is macroevolution? What is macroecology?
of the reality of evolution, many did not accept change. Supporters of the Darwinian hypothesis of
Darwin’s proposed mechanism. Natural selection gradual evolution tended to emphasize that muta-
could clearly cause deleterious mutations to dis- tion was random, ubiquitous, and continuous.
appear from populations, as their carriers failed to Mutationists, on the other hand, emphasized the
survive or reproduce. But could new species arise discontinuous recurrence of particular mutations
simply through the accumulation of small advanta- which might give rise to new species without the
geous variations? There was little evidence available need for natural selection. Mutationists did not
to suggest that they could, and many arguments deny selection occurred, but doubted that it could
were offered against the power of natural selection provide the main creative role in evolution. In other
to generate new species. If selection only operated words, mutationists felt that there were two sepa-
on the variation present in populations, then how rate evolutionary processes: the microevolutionary
did novel characters arise that allowed the evolu- processes that resulted in fluctuations in the fre-
tion of a new species adapted to a different way of quency of minor variants within populations and
life? Since species are typically separated by distinct the removal of harmful mutations, and macroevo-
differences, and cannot interbreed to form viable lutionary processes that resulted in the formation
hybrids, many biologists predicted that species of new species.
must form by discontinuous ‘jumps’ rather than by
constant accumulation of small variations.
We will consider evolutionary explanations based
One of the most outspoken proponents of an on large discontinuous changes in Chapter 4
alternative view of evolution was William Bateson when we examine the ‘Cambrian explosion’ of
(1861–1926), one of the pioneering geneticists who animal body plans.
put Mendelian inheritance centre stage in the early
decades of the twentieth century. Whereas Lamarck
For several decades, evolutionary biology consisted
and Darwin emphasized cases in which there was
of parallel research programmes. One, dominated
continuous variation between varieties and spe-
by naturalists, concentrated on variation within
cies, Bateson asserted that these cases were in the
natural populations. Another, championed largely
minority and that most species were separated by
by geneticists, focused on the generation of sub-
discontinuous variation, with no known transi-
stantial new variants that could potentially form
tional forms. Since most of the differences between
the basis of distinct lineages. In addition, many
species recognized by naturalists were not directly
palaeontologists focused on directional trends in
associated with adaptation to their particular way
the fossil record. These separate foci on different
of life, Bateson doubted whether natural selection
aspects of evolution led to something of a split
could explain the formation of new species. If evo-
in the way that evolutionary biology was stud-
lution of new species was built upon differences
ied, with some biologists focusing on the changes
between individuals, then Bateson expected two
that could occur within populations, and others
kinds of variation: minor differences between indi-
on the origin of new lineages. Following termi-
viduals within populations, and discrete mutations
nology introduced by Yuri Filipchenko (Юрий
that could form the basis of new species.
Александрович Филипченко, 1882—1930),
Because of the emphasis on mutation as a primary these two levels became known as microevolution
force driving evolution, this view of evolution is and macroevolution. Like Bateson, Filipchenko felt
commonly referred to as mutationism, to contrast that the differences that separated higher system-
it with gradualism which explained the formation atic categories of living things were of a different
of species through the continuous accumulation kind than the variations found within populations,
of small variations, ever present in populations. and therefore explaining the origins of higher taxa
The two schools of thought differed in their view was not simply a matter of extrapolating popula-
of the heritable variation that drove evolutionary tion-level processes over long timescales.
A long history of ideas 15
number of scientists developed the mathematical
framework for understanding the fate of mutations
in populations. This population genetic framework
What do you think?
demonstrated that even tiny selective differences
The disagreement between selectionists and can, given a large enough population and a sufficient
mutationists partly reflected different atti- number of generations, lead to new traits becoming
tudes to science: mutations could be gener- fixed in a population, or to directional change in the
ated and observed in the laboratory, whereas average value of a trait over time. One of the key fig-
the role of natural selection in the formation ures in the development of the population genetic
of new species is inferred rather than directly framework for evolutionary biology was R.A. Fisher
witnessed. If we can’t witness natural selec- (1890–1962). Fisher used mathematical modelling
tion creating species, can we still treat it as a to reconcile Mendelian genetics, which had focused
scientific hypothesis that can be tested? Can on the inheritance of discrete traits, with popula-
we ever prove the Darwinian hypothesis that tion-level studies, which described continuous
new species arise from selection of small variation between individuals. Fisher showed that
variants accumulated over long timescales? even slight heritable modifications that conveyed
very small selective advantages could be steadily
accumulated in populations under selection.